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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
VOLUME I
MONOGRAPHS
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS IN THE
UNITED STATES
A SERIES or MONOGRAPHS PREPARED UNDER THE
DIRECTION OF THE PRESIDENT'S RESEARCH
COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL TRENDS
Thompson and Whelpton —
POPULATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES
Wittey and Rice —
COMMUNICATION AGENCIES AND SOCIAL LIFE
Judd—
PROBLEMS OF EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES
McKenzie —
THE METROPOLITAN COMMUNITY
Brunner and Kolb —
RURAL SOCIAL TRENDS
Woofter—
RACES AND ETHNIC GROUPS IN AMERICAN LIFE
Breckinridge —
POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Or
WOMEN
Wolman and Peck —
LABOR IN THE NATIONAL LIFE
Steiner —
AMERICANS AT PLAT
Keppel and Duffus —
THE ARTS IN AMERICAN LIFE
Sydenstricker —
HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENT
White—
TRENDS IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
Wooddy —
GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 1915-1932
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
IN THE UNITED STATES
REPORT OF THE
PRESIDENT'S RESEARCH COMMITTEE
ON SOCIAL TRENDS
With a Foreword by
HERBERT HOOVER
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
VOLUME I
McGRAW-HILL BOOK COMPANY, INC.
NEW YORK AND LONDON
1933
COPYRIGHT, 1933, BY THE
RESEARCH COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL TRENDS, INC.
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OP AMERICA
First Printing, January, 1933
Second Printing, January, 1933
THE MAPLE PRESS COMPANY, YORK, PA.
FOREWORD BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE
UNITED STATES
IN the autumn of 1929 I asked a group of eminent scientists to examine
into the feasibility of a national survey of social trends in the United
States, and in December of that year I named the present Committee
under the chairmanship of Dr. Wesley C. Mitchell to undertake the
researches and make a report. The survey is entirely the work of the
committee and its experts, as it was my desire to have a complete, impar-
tial examination of the facts. The Committee's own report, which is the
first section of the published work and is signed by members, reflects
their collective judgment of the material and sets forth matters of opinion
as well as of strict scientific determination.
Since the task assigned to the Committee was to inquire into changing
trends, the result is emphasis on elements of instability rather than
stability in our social structure.
This study is the latest and most comprehensive of a series, some of
them governmental and others privately sponsored, beginning in 1921
with the report on "Waste in Industry" under my chairmanship. It
should serve to help all of us to see where social stresses are occur-
ring and where major efforts should be undertaken to deal with them
constructively.
HERBERT HOOVER.
THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, D. C.
October 11, 1932.
President's Research Committee on
Social Trends
WESLEY C. MITCHELL, Chairman
CHARLES E. MERRIAM, Vice-chairman
SHELBY M. HARRISON, Secretary- Treasurer
ALICE HAMILTON
HOWARD W. ODUM
WILLIAM F. OGBURN
Executive Staff
WILLIAM F. OGBURN, Director of Research
HOWARD W. ODUM, Assistant Director of Research
EDWARD EYRE HUNT, Executive Secretary
[ vi]
CONTENTS
VOLUME I
PAGE
FOREWORD BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v
A REVIEW OF FINDINGS BY THE PRESIDENT'S RESEARCH COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL TRENDS
INTRODUCTION xi
PART 1. PROBLEMS OF PHYSICAL HERITAGE xvi
I. Minerals and Power xvi
II. Land xvii
PART 2. PROBLEMS OF BIOLOGICAL HERITAGE xx
I. Quantity of Population xx
II. Quality of Population xxiii
PART 3. PROBLEMS OF SOCIAL HERITAGE xxv
I. Invention and Economic Organization xxv
II. Social Organizations and Social Habits xxxiv
III. Ameliorative Institutions and Government liv
PART 4. POLICY AND PROBLEMS Ixx
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Ixxvii
PREFATORY NOTE xciii
CHAPTER I
THE POPULATION OF THE NATION 1
By Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Scripps Foundation for Research
in Population Problems, Miami University
CHAPTER II
UTILIZATION OF NATURAL WEALTH 59
Part 1. MINERAL AND POWER RESOURCES 59
By F. G. Tryon and Margaret H. Schoenfeld, Institute of Economics, the
Brookings Institution
PART 2. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND 90
By O. E. Baker, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture
CHAPTER III
THE INFLUENCE OF INVENTION AND DISCOVERY 122
By W. F. Ogburn, University of Chicago, with the assistance of S. C. Gilfillan
SHAPTER IV
THE AGENCIES OF COMMUNICATION 167
By Malcolm M. Willey, University of Minnesota, and Stuart A. Rice, University
of Pennsylvania
[ vii]
CONTENTS
PAGE
CHAPTER V
TRENDS IN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION 218
By Edwin F. Gay, Harvard University, and Leo Wolman, Columbia University
CHAPTER VI
SHIFTING OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS 268
By Ralph G. Hurlin, Russell Sage Foundation, and Meredith B. Givens, Social
Science Research Council
CHAPTER VII
EDUCATION 325
By Charles H. Judd, University of Chicago
CHAPTER VIII
CHANGING SOCIAL ATTITUDES AND INTERESTS 382
By Hornell Hart, Bryn Mawr College
CHAPTER IX
THE RISE OF METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES 443
By R. D. McKenzie, University of Michigan
CHAPTER X
RURAL LIFE • 497
By J. H. Kolb, University of Wisconsin, and Edmund de S. Brunner, Institute
of Social and Religious Research
CHAPTER XI
THE STATUS OF RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS 553
By T. J. Woofter, Jr., University of North Carolina
CHAPTER XII
THE VITALITY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE 602
By Edgar Sydenstricker, The Milbank Memorial Fund
CHAPTER XIII
THE FAMILY AND ITS FUNCTIONS 661
By William F. Ogburn, University of Chicago, with the assistance of Clark
Tibbitts
CHAPTER XIV
THE ACTIVITIES OF WOMEN OUTSIDE THE HOME 709
By S. P. Breckinridge, University of Chicago
VOLUME II
CHAPTER XV
CHILDHOOD AND YOUTH 751
By Lawrence K. Frank, General Education Board
CHAPTER XVI
LABOR GROUPS IN THE SOCIAL STRUCTURE 801
By Leo Wolman, Columbia University, and Gustav Peck, College of the City
of New York
[ Viii ]
CONTENTS
PAQB
CHAPTER XVII
THE PEOPLE AS CONSUMERS 857
By Robert S. Lynd, Columbia University, with the assistance of Alice C. Hanson
CHAPTER XVIII
RECREATION AND LEISURE TIME ACTIVITIES 912
By J. F. Steiner, University of Washington
CHAPTER XIX
THE ARTS IN SOCIAL LIFE 958
By Frederick P. Keppel, Carnegie Corporation of New York
CHAPTER XX
CHANGES IN RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS 1009
By C. Luther Fry, Institute of Social and Religious Research, with the assist-
ance of Mary Frost Jessup.
CHAPTER XXI
HEALTH AND MEDICAL PRACTICE 1061
By Harry H. Moore, Committee on the Costs of Medical Care
CHAPTER XXII
CRIME AND PUNISHMENT 1114
By Edwin H. Sutherland, University of Chicago, and C. E. Gehlke, Western
Reserve University
CHAPTER XXIII
PRIVATELY SUPPORTED SOCIAL WORK 1168
By Sydnor H. Walker, The Rockefeller Foundation
CHAPTER XXIV
PUBLIC WELFARE ACTIVITIES 1224
By Howard W. Odum, University of North Carolina
CHAPTER XXV
THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENTAL FUNCTIONS 1274
By Carroll H. Wooddy, University of Chicago
CHAPTER XXVI
TAXATION AND PUBLIC FINANCE 1331
By Clarence Heer, University of North Carolina
CHAPTER XXVII
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 1391
By Leonard D. White, University of Chicago
CHAPTER XXVIII
LAW AND LEGAL INSTITUTIONS 1430
By Charles E. Clark and William O. Douglas, Yale University
CHAPTER XXIX
GOVERNMENT AND SOCIETY 1489
By C. E. Merriam, University of Chicago
INDEX, 1543
\ ix 1
A REVIEW OF FINDINGS
BY THE
PRESIDENT'S RESEARCH COMMITTEE
ON SOCIAL TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
IN September 1929 the Chief Executive of the nation called upon
the members of this Committee to examine and to report upon recent
social trends in the United States with a view to providing such a
review as might supply a basis for the formulation of large national
policies looking to the next phase in the nation's development. The
summons was unique in our history.
A summary of the findings on recent social trends, prepared in re-
sponse to the President's request, is presented in the twenty-nine chapters
which follow. In addition the Committee is publishing thirteen volumes
of special studies and supporting data, giving in greater detail the facts
upon which the findings rest.
The first third of the twentieth century has been filled with epoch-mak-
ing events and crowded with problems of great variety and complexity.
The World War, the inflation and deflation of agriculture and business,
our emergence as a creditor nation, the spectacular increase in efficiency
and productivity and the tragic spread of unemployment and business
distress, the experiment of prohibition, birth control, race riots, stoppage
of immigration, women's suffrage, the struggles of the Progressive and the
Farmer Labor parties, governmental corruption, crime and racketeering,
the sprawl of great cities, the decadence of rural government, the birth
of the League of Nations, the expansion of education, the rise and weak-
ening of organized labor, the growth of spectacular fortunes, the advance
of medical science, the emphasis on sports and recreation, the renewed
interest in child welfare — these are a few of the many happenings which
have marked one of the most eventful periods of our history.
With these events have come national problems urgently demanding
attention on many fronts. Even a casual glance at some of these points
of tension in our national life reveals a wide range of puzzling questions.
Imperialism, peace or war, international relations, urbanism, trusts
[ xi ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
and mergers, crime and its prevention, taxation, social insurance, the
plight of agriculture, foreign and domestic markets, governmental
regulation of industry, shifting moral standards, new leadership in
business and government, the status of womankind, labor, child train-
ing, mental hygiene, the future of democracy and capitalism, the re-
organization of our governmental units, the use of leisure time, public
and private medicine, better homes and standards of living — all of these
and many others, for these are only samples taken from a long series of
grave questions, demand attention if we are not to drift into zones of
danger. Demagogues, statesmen, savants and propagandists have
attacked these problems, but usually from the point of view of some
limited interest. Records and information have been and still are in-
complete and often inconclusive.
The Committee does not exaggerate the bewildering confusion of
problems; it has merely uncovered the situation as it is. Modern life
is everywhere complicated, but especially so in the United States,
where immigration from many lands, rapid mobility within the country
itself, the lack of established classes or castes to act as a brake on social
changes, the tendency to seize upon new types of machines, rich natural
resources and vast driving power, have hurried us dizzily away from the
days of the frontier into a whirl of modernisms which almost passes belief.
Along with this amazing mobility and complexity there has run a
marked indifference to the interrelation among the parts of our huge
social system. Powerful individuals and groups have gone their own way
without realizing the meaning of the old phrase, "No man liveth unto
himself."
The result has been that astonishing contrasts in organization and
disorganization are to be found side by side in American life: splendid
technical proficiency in some incredible skyscraper and monstrous
backwardness in some equally incredible slum. The outstanding prob-
lem might be stated as that of bringing about a realization of the inter-
dependence of the factors of our ^complicated social structure, and
of interrelating the advancing sections of our forward movement so that
agriculture, labor, industry, government, education, religion and science
may develop a higher degree of coordination in the next phase of national
growth.
In times of war and imminent public calamity it has been possible
to achieve a high degree of coordinated action, but in the intervals of
which national life is largely made up, coordinated effort relaxes and
under the heterogeneous forces of modern life a vast amount of disorgan-
ization has been possible in our economic, political and social affairs.
It may indeed be said that the primary value of this report is to be
found in the effort to interrelate the disjointed factors and elements in
[ xii 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
the social life of America, in the attempt to view the situation as a
whole rather than as a cluster of parts. The various inquiries which
have been conducted by the Committee are subordinated to the main
purpose of getting a central view of the American problem as revealed
by social trends. Important studies have recently been made in eco-
nomic changes, in education, in child welfare, in home ownership and
home building, in law enforcement, in social training, in medicine. The
meaning of the present study of social change is to be found not merely in
the analysis of the separate trends, many of which have been examined
before, but in their interrelation — in the effort to look at America as a
whole, as a national union the parts of which too often are isolated, not
only in scientific studies but in everyday affairs.
The Committee's procedure, then, has been to look at recent social
trends in the United States as interrelated, to scrutinize the functioning
of the social organization as a joint activity. It is the express purpose of
this review of findings to unite such problems as those of economics,
government, religion, education, in a comprehensive study of social
movements and tendencies, to direct attention to the importance of
balance among the factors of change. A nation advances not only by
dynamic power, but by and through the maintenance of some degree of
equilibrium among the moving forces.
There are of course numerous ways to present these divergent ques-
tions but it may be useful to consider for the moment that the clue to
their understanding as well as the hope for improvement lies in the fact
of social change. Not all parts of our organization are changing at the
same speed or at the same time. Some are rapidly moving forward and
others are lagging. These unequal rates of change in economic life, in
government, in education, in science and religion, make zones of danger
and points of tension. It is almost as if the various functions of the body
or the parts of an automobile were operating at unsynchronized speeds.
Our capacity to produce goods changes faster than our capacity to
purchase; employment does not keep pace with improvement in the
machinery of production; interoceanic communication changes more
quickly than the reorganization of international relations; the factory
takes occupations away from the home before the home can adjust itself
to the new conditions. The automobile affects the railroads, the family,
size of cities, types of crime, manners and morals.
Scientific discoveries and inventions instigate changes first in the
economic organization and social habits which are most closely associated
with them. Thus factories and cities, corporations and labor organizations
have grown up in response to technological developments.
The next great set of changes occurs in organizations one step further
removed, namely in institutions such as the family, the government,
[ xiii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the schools and the churches. Somewhat later, as a rule, come changes in
social philosophies and codes of behavior, although at times these may
precede the others. Not all changes come in this order but sufficient
numbers so occur in modern history to make the sequence of value in
charting the strains of our civilization. In reality all of these factors act
and react upon each other, often in perplexing and unexpected ways.
Of the great social organizations, two, the economic and the govern-
mental, are growing at a rapid rate, while two other historic organizations,
the church and the family, have declined in social significance, although
not in human values. Many of the problems of society today occur
because of the shifting roles of these four major social institutions.
Church and family have lost many of their regulatory influences over
behavior, while industry and government have assumed a larger degree
of control.
Of these four great social institutions, the economic organization,
in part at least, has been progressively adjusted to mechanical invention
as is shown by the remarkable gains in the records of productivity per
worker. Engineers hold out visions of still greater productivity, with
consequent increases in the standards of living. But there are many
adjustments to be made within other parts of the economic organization.
The flow of credit is not synchronized with the flow of production. There
are recurring disasters in the business cycle. Employer organizations have
changed more rapidly than employee organizations. A special set of
economic problems is that occasioned by the transformation in agricul-
ture due to science, to electricity and gasoline, and to the growth of
the agencies of communication. Another focus of maladjustments
has its center in our ideas of property, the distribution of wealth and
poverty — new forms of age-old problems.
The shifting of economic activities has brought innumerable problems
to government. It has forced an expansion of governmental functions,
creating problems of bureaucracy and inefficiency. The problems of
still closer union between government and industry are upon us. It is
difficult but vital to determine what type of relationship there shall be,
for all types are by no means envisaged by the terms communism and
capitalism. The conception of government changes as it undertakes
various community activities such as education, recreation and health.
Again, the revolutionary developments of communication already have
shown the inadequacies of the present boundaries of local governments
organized in simpler days, and on a larger scale foreshadow rearrange-
ments in the relations of nations, with the possibility always of that
most tragic of human problems, war.
Like government the family has been slow to change in strengthening
its services to its members to meet the new conditions forced upon them.
[ xiv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
Many of the economic functions of the family have been transferred to
the factory; its educational functions to the school; its supervision over
sanitation and pure food to government. These changes have necessitated
many adaptations to new conditions, not always readily made, and often
resulting in serious maladjustments. The diminishing size and increasing
instability of the family have contributed to the problem.
The spiritual values of life are among the most profound of those
affected by developments in technology and organization. They are the
slowest in changing to meet altered conditions. Moral guidance is pe-
culiarly difficult, when the future is markedly different from the past.
So we have the anomalies of prohibition and easy divorce; strict cen-
sorship and risque plays and literature; scientific research and laws
forbidding the teaching of the theory of evolution; contraceptive informa-
tion legally outlawed but widely utilized. All these are illustrations of
varying rates of change and of their effect in raising problems.
If, then, the report reveals, as it must, confusion and complexity
in American life during recent years, striking inequality in the rates
of change, uneven advances in inventions, institutions, attitudes and
ideals, dangerous tensions and torsions in our social arrangements,
we may hold steadily to the importance of viewing social situations as a
whole in terms of the interrelation and interdependence of our national life,
of analyzing and appraising our problems as those of a single society based
upon the assumption of the common welfare as the goal of common effort.
Effective coordination of the factors of our evolving society mean,
where possible and desirable, slowing up the changes which occur too
rapidly and speeding up the changes which lag. The Committee does not
believe in a moratorium upon research in physical science and inven-
tion, such as has sometimes been proposed. On the contrary, it holds that
social invention has to be stimulated to keep pace with mechanical inven-
tion. What seems a welter of confusion may thus be brought more closely
into relationship with the other parts of our national structure, with
whatever implications this may hold for ideals and institutions.
The problems before the nation as they are affected by social
change fall into three great groups. One group is the natural environ-
ment of earth and air, heat and cold, fauna and flora. This changes
very slowly; it is man's physical heritage. Another group is our bio-
logical inheritance — those things which determine the color of our
eyes, the width of our cheek bones, our racial characteristics apart
from environmental influences. And this also changes slowly. A third
is the cultural environment called civilization, our social heritage,
in which change is going forward rapidly. In this framework the problems
of change will be presented.
[xv ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Part 1. — PROBLEMS OF PHYSICAL HERITAGE
The natural environment as a whole changes little — climate is fairly
static; the crust of the earth retains much the same characteristics.
Only those factors of the natural heritage which are susceptible to
human influence show any appreciable change. Forests are cut, chemical
constituents of the soil depleted, minerals are extracted and used.
I. MINERALS AND POWER
In the United States the extraordinary richness of the heritage of
natural resources has often been stressed. The rate at which this heritage
is drawn upon is significant because it is basic to our material well being.
The extent to which we use these resources is shown by the increase
between 1899 and 1929 of 286 percent in mining production, as compared
with increases of 210 percent in manufacturing, of 48 percent in agricul-
ture, and of 62 percent in population. Modern civilization rests upon
power, upon energy derived from inorganic rather than human or animal
sources. Since the beginning of the century the consumption of energy has
increased about 230 percent; and the prices of coal, oil and electricity
have not risen more than have general wholesale prices. Iron, the most
common element in the tools and machines driven by power, has
been plentiful and its price has risen much less than have general
prices, and most of the other minerals have risen in price less than the
general price level.
But the supply of minerals is limited and exhaustible. As the richer
and more accessible deposits are used up, mining proceeds to leaner ores
and greater depths, and from year to year the natural obstacles become
more serious. How does it happen, then, that the minerals can be used
in increasing quantities, yet produced at diminishing costs? The answer
is given by a thousand technological improvements in production and
consumption. This brilliant achievement is shown in the increasing output
per worker; in the coal mines it rose more than 50 percent during the
period 1900 to 1930; in the same period the reduction in fuel consumed
per unit of product was over 33 percent. In the field of the metals, there
is a great increase in recovery of scrap, and the drain upon the under-
earth supply is thereby retarded. The revolving fund of metal thus
created will increase with the years. All of these factors promise further
victories in the battle against increasing costs. For the immediate future
the outlook is for a growing abundance of minerals available at declining
price. After that and long before exhaustion sets in, the problem of rising
costs will become more acute. The ultimate outlook is suggested by the
[ xvi ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
position of England, where growing difficulties of mining have swallowed
up the gains of technology and the output per worker in the coal mines
is less than it was fifty years ago.
At the moment the problem which is absorbing the attention of the
mineral industry is not one of scarcity but of surplus. Abundance of
resources and the competitive organization of mining have led to excessive
capacity, causing heavy loss to the capital and labor engaged. But in
preoccupation over the problem of too many mines and too many miners,
there is danger of forgetting the waste of the underlying resources which
such destructive competition entails. The best seams and richest deposits
are being rapidly stripped, leaving large quantities more or less unmin-
able. In the bituminous coal industry this loss amounts to 150 million
tons of minable coal a year, and oil production is a similarly conspicuous
example of waste. The money losses in mining have stimulated
attempts at control of production and even proposals to modify the
anti-trust laws. From the public point of view it is important that any
change in economic organization undertaken in the interest of steadier
profits and wages should also insure conservation by preventing waste
of the resources.
One of the most practical steps in conservation is to harness the
inexhaustible sources of power. Power from the tides is still in the future,
although a tidal project at Passamaquoddy Bay is now under considera-
tion. Power from waterfalls, on the other hand, now supplies 36 percent
of the electricity generated by public utilities. The capacity of installed
waterwheels has increased sevenfold in thirty years, and projects now in
hand insure further large increase. Even so, only about 40 percent of
the potential horsepower has been harnessed. Except for the St. Lawrence
the undeveloped resources lie chiefly in regions remote from present
markets.
It is clear that development of water power as fast as it can be utilized
is in the public interest. Yet there is danger of exaggerating the amount
of energy obtainable from this source. At the present time only seven
percent of the country's energy consumption — if heat be included as
well as power — is derived from water, and even maximum development
of the potential resources would leave us primarily depending upon fuel.
As far as the energy resources are concerned, the heart of the conservation
problem lies in preventing waste of coal, petroleum and natural gas.
II. LAND
With regard to the soil the situation is different from that of the
minerals. The growing of crops removes essential chemical elements but
these can be replaced. It is estimated by our experts, however, that about
[ xvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
one-fourth of the cultivated land in the United States, chiefly in the
southeast and southwest, has lost by erosion a third of its surface soil,
and that from another quarter of the land a sixth or more of surface soil
has been removed. These are colossal losses and they are increasing every
year, yet the threat of an insufficient supply of food or fiber in the future
now appears to exist no longer.
There are still nearly 300 million acres of land devoted mainly to
pasture which can be put into crops by ploughing and planting, and
another 300 million acres which could be used for crops after clearing of
the forest or after drainage or irrigation. Despite this vast reserve of land
available for crop production the nation can ill afford to permit waste of
soil resources by erosion and allow the people of a district to be slowly re-
duced to poverty. Where the land cannot be protected by terracing it
would seem that it may be restored to forest or grass. Erosion, of course,
leads to the silting of the rivers and to floods, which are matters of
national concern. The utilization of eroding lands for forest or grazing
would also tend to reduce the surplus of farm products.
The economic prospects of agriculture have been changed by the
rapid decline of the birth rate, the restrictions upon immigration, the
great decrease in exports of farm products, and by progress in technique.
There has been no increase in crop acreage for 15 years, nor in acre-yields
of the crops as a whole for 30 years, yet agricultural production has
increased about 50 percent since the beginning of the century. The
advancing efficiency in land utilization is due principally to the increased
use of power machinery in agriculture, and to the application of scientific
knowledge. Use of the gas engine has reduced the number of horses
and mules by 10 millions during the past 14 years, thereby releasing
about 30 million acres of plough land and large areas of pasture for
raising meat and milk animals or for growing food and fiber crops.
Total mechanical power used on farms increased from 0.5 horse power
per worker in 1900 to 5.6 in 1930. Improvements in animal husbandry
have resulted in a further saving of probably 25 million acres of crop
land since the World War.
It is estimated by our experts that agricultural output per worker
increased 22 percent between the average of the decade 1912-1921 and
the average of the decade 1922-1931. A farmer now provides food for
himself and three members of his family, for 12 Americans not living on
farms and for 2 foreigners — a total of 18 persons.
The result of these changing forces has been a volume of agricultural
production in excess of market demands, and this in turn affords a partial
explanation of the net loss in farm population of 1.2 million between
1920 and 1930, although a reversal of population flow has set in since the
depression began in 1929. This migration of farmers to cities means an
[ xviii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
abandonment of crop lands which should be first from the poorer lands,
for there is a problem of the rural poverty areas as truly as there is a
problem of the urban slums.
The power line is likely to supplement the automobile in drawing
farmers to the highways and in causing the gradual abandonment of
much land back in the hills. The selective abandonment of the poorer
land is being facilitated by the agencies of communication such as the
postal service, the newspaper, the telephone, and the radio.
Should government endeavor to facilitate or direct this migration
from the farms in the handicapped areas, relocating on more fertile or
favorably located land those who wish to continue farming? Often the
economies to be obtained in the provision of schools and roads alone would
justify the county or state in such action. This might lead to the zoning
of rural lands. On the other hand, should government policy aim at
retaining as much as possible of the natural increase of the farm popula-
tion on farms or in rural areas as a means of maintaining the national
population ?
Abandoned farm lands return to brush but are not likely to be used
for lumber production for some time. There are, however, other uses of
low grade forest lands : conserving game and fur bearing animals, affording
recreation, protecting water supplies and preventing floods. The responsi-
bility for the development of such uses and the reorganization of the
school and road systems in regions consisting in substantial part of such
lands seem likely to devolve largely upon the state.
The problem of export markets may be serious for a time. Technologi-
cal progress in land utilization in western Europe and in Russia is pro-
ceeding as in the United States, while in northwestern Europe, where
most of the exports of farm products are sent, the prospect is for a
stationary or declining population within a few decades. Losses in
European markets in part may be compensated for by the growth of
markets in the countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean. To deal with the
agricultural surplus raises the broad question of land utilization and of
domestic and foreign markets.
The tendencies which have given rise to these problems of surpluses,
markets and shifts in population rest in large part upon two great move-
ments: technological advance and declining population growth. The
advance of science and invention may be expected to continue. It may
lead to the widespread adoption of mechanical corn harvesters and
cotton pickers for the handling of two of our greatest crops, and to the
wider use of other agricultural machines now in existence. If so, it will
give a premium in crop production to the larger farms on the more level
lands, and it will lead to reduction in the number of people engaged in
commercial agriculture and to further shifts in population.
[ xix]
RECENT SOCIAL TEENDS
Part 2. — PROBLEMS OF BIOLOGICAL HERITAGE
I. QUANTITY OF POPULATION
The Declining Rate of Growth. — The rate of population growth in the
United States has long been declining but this fact has perhaps been ob-
scured because of the size of the net increase decade by decade. Thus the
increase from 1920 to 1930 was 17 millions as compared with 14 millions in
the years 1910 to 1920, within which the World War occurred. Before the
Civil War, however, the population was increasing at the rate of about 35
percent a decade. Between 1920 and 1930 it increased only 16 percent.
Experts on population have projected their curves into the future and
the outlook is startling. Manufacturers who try to estimate future mar-
kets have been expecting a population of 140 million by 1940, but the
calculations of our contributors, based on information not presented in the
decennial censuses, show that the declining rate of increase has been
particularly striking since 1923, and that hardly more than 132 or
133 millions are to be expected by 1940. This means that the markets
for mine operators, farmers and manufacturers, whose plants may be
over-equipped and whose problems are those of overproduction, will be
considerably smaller than has been expected, unless foreign markets are
expanded, or our domestic standards of consumption are raised.
As our statisticians look further into the future, they see possibilities
of still greater declines in growth with the probability of a stationary
population. They show that we shall probably attain a population between
145 and 190 million during the present century with the probability that
the actual population will be nearer the lower figure than the higher. Such
a prospect is radically different from that predicted a generation or even
a decade ago.
Ideas regarding the domestic market will have to be revised in the
light of these estimates, not only by manufacturers and farmers but also
by real estate owners, lawyers, doctors, teachers and many others. The
problem will be to compensate for less rapidly growing numbers by
endeavoring to raise standards of purchasing power and consumption.
America, with its rapidly expanding population and its exploitation of
abundant natural resources, has been characterized by exceptional opti-
mism and initiative. Will these traditional traits of the American charac-
ter suffer by a declining rate of population growth and increasing difficul-
ties in exploiting our national resources ? It may be that this will prove to
be the case, but we must make allowance for the highly dynamic factor of
invention which is likely to develop new industries, stimulating optimism
and energy through the creation of new commodities and new desires.
The Problem of an Optimum Population. — Shall we aim to have a
large or a limited population ? This is a major problem in the development
[ xx]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
of a population policy, and it is a question on which opinions differ. The
manufacturer may see in a stationary or diminishing population a limita-
tion of his market, whereas a smaller population may mean a higher
standard of living for consumers. A patriotic militarist may have a very
different idea of the optimum population from that of a labor leader.
Similarly a real estate owner and a social worker may disagree concerning
the most desirable numbers. Thus the population policy of the United
States as it develops through the coming years will be affected by a
variety of conflicting ideals and interests.
But while population policy is shaped by social wishes, knowledge may
influence the decisions which are made. One influence may be the amount
of unemployment which results from the displacement of men by ma-
chines and which may increase with the growing number of inventions.
Similarly the methods of controlling the size of the population may differ.
The policy of restricting immigration from Europe and of regulating the
inflow from Mexico and Canada requires collective action, while it is
difficult to control social attitudes toward the natural rates of increase.
The future is likely to bring continuing discussion of the optimum
population, which in turn may affect the validity of present predictions.
The forces which determine the size of our population may be expected to
vary from time to time, so that in the future numbers may fall and later
rise again, but within the near future the prospect is for further decline in
rates of increase, as the use of contraceptives may spread, if not among
those religious groups which now bar them, certainly farther into the farm-
ing areas and among the groups with lower incomes in cities and villages.
Distribution and Density of Population. — Population policy is con-
cerned not only with the total numbers in the nation as a whole, but also
with the numbers in particular regions and localities.
The most significant movements of peoples, however, relate to their
concentration in centers of high density where the question is arising
whether the larger cities are becoming too crowded to be comfortable
and economical. Although this difficulty may be solved by the automatic
working of economic forces and considerations of comfort, the delay and
costs may prove great. There is evidence that factories have been moving
from large cities to smaller places where land and labor are cheaper
and living conditions are more favorable. Nevertheless, our largest two
cities have continued to grow faster than the general population, though
no faster than the total urban population which includes small towns as
well as cities. The fastest rates of urban growth from 1920 to 1930 were
found in the smaller cities within the orbits of the metropolitan centers.
The ideal of the Greeks was to limit the size of their cities, but in the
United States most of the effective vocal element in cities appears eager
for greater size. Various economic forces have in the past offered en-
f xxi 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
couragement to growth, in part because of the unearned increment of
wealth accruing to real estate owners and to other established groups
interested in expanding markets.
Suburban transportation has helped to disperse the population of
cities. Indeed, the boundary line of the city becomes more and more
shadowy in a social and economic sense. The surrounding country is
linked to the metropolitan center by delivery services of stores, by
extension of telephone exchange areas, by daily newspaper routes and
other similar bonds. The automobile helps to fill up the suburbs, families
move outward, and in some cases they engage in gardening or even in
part time farming. Little cities, towns, trading centers and shops grow
up along the highways. In short, a new type of population grouping is
appearing : not the city, but the metropolitan community — a constellation
of smaller groups dominated by a metropolitan center. As the railroad
and telegraph tended earlier to create our cities, so the automobile and
the telephone tend now to create our metropolitan communities.
This dramatic development of a new type of population grouping
— the metropolitan community — has not only affected city planning but
has led to regional planning. A problem for city planning has been
left by the outward drift of the city's population. Disorganized areas
where the older residential sections impinge upon the business districts
have been left to the weaker economic elements and sometimes to criminal
groups with resultant unsatisfactory social conditions. The motor age
has brought "boom" suburban towns planted with as little planning as
the "boom" towns which burst into existence in the railway age.
This unanticipated type of aggregation has not only meant a reorgani-
zation of city planning, but has precipitated many adjustments of social
habits. Large cities throughout the United States have been confronted
with the task either of extending municipal services to surrounding sub-
urban communities or of developing some new form of political associa-
tion. Economic services, lured by gain, have responded promptly.
The cultural institutions, schools, churches and similar organizations
have found more difficulty in adjusting themselves to the rearranged
population, political instutions, unpressed by competition, have been the
least adaptive and have remained for the most part the same as in the
pre-motor period. The costs involved in maintaining an obsolete political
structure are now becoming the subject of conscious consideration and
the problem cannot be neglected much longer.
The quantity of population in a particular region is affected by its
distribution, the nature of which is changing rapidly; hence, the time is
ripe for social and physical planning of these communities. How large
our cities should be rests in part on conscious wishes and will power,
but it will probably be decided for the most part by powerful economic
[ xxii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
factors, such as the dispersal of manufacturing and trading centers and
business policies dictated by land values and labor costs.
II. QUALITY OF POPULATION
Processes for Improving the Inherited Qualities of the Population. —
Of the two ways of improving the inherited qualities of a people, the
first, mutation, may be dismissed, since our knowledge is still too lim-
ited; the second, selection and breeding for desirable qualities, offers
possibilities.
But what are the practical possibilities of improving a people by
conscious selection? The lack of knowledge concerning heredity and the
composition of the chromosomes of prospective parents is undoubtedly
an obstacle, but breeders of livestock have accomplished results without
this information. The obstacles lie rather in obtaining the necessary
control, in the lack of agreement as to which combination of traits is
desirable, and in the difficulty in mating of combining sentimental
and spiritual values with biological values. The problem is one of research
from which in time higher eugenic ideals may emerge.
More immediately urgent is the need of preventing individuals with
undesired inheritable traits from having offspring. Such a policy could be
enforced in the more marked cases of feeblemindedness, of which there are
less than 100,000 in institutions, but for the large numbers outside of
institutions, variously estimated in the millions, who is to decide? The
abilities of individuals shade down from competency to idiocy, and it is
not at all certain that all low grades of mentality are caused by heredity.
So with the other objectionable types, the insane and criminals, it is not
known that the factors producing them are inherited. Men often commit
criminal acts because of social conditions. Crime fluctuates with the busi-
ness cycle. In a similar manner, certain types of social experience conduce
to insanity. For example, there was a higher percentage of rejections
because of mental disorder among men drafted for the United States
Army from cities than from rural areas. A few states have passed laws
providing for the sterilization of certain inmates of state institutions by
an operation reported to be otherwise harmless.
If conscious control of selection now seems remote, it should be re-
membered that selection is continually ocurring nonetheless, and that a
policy is demanded. Natural selection has not ceased and the modern
urban environment may be quite as rigorous as that of nature in develop-
ing or suppressing physical or mental traits. Discoveries regarding birth
control already represent a powerful device for implementing policies of
selection, and the birth rate, itself a selective agent, is much higher among
the groups with a low income than among those with a higher income. The
[ xxiii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
association, however, between large incomes and desirable hereditary
traits may not be very marked.
Ethnic Groups and Immigration Policies. — Birth rates, death rates
and migrations have redistributed groups of our population in the past
and these forces are at work among our ethnic stocks. Among Negroes
death rates are about one and a half times as high as among whites.
Death rates are also higher for the foreign born than for native born
whites, although the differences are slight for those in the same income
groups. Birth rates are somewhat higher among Negroes and foreign
born whites than among native whites. The net result is that Negroes
constitute a smaller proportion of the population than in earlier years
and if present policies of restrictive immigration continue in force, the
foreign born will be a declining element.
The present immigration policy of the United States not only regu-
lates the quantity of the immigrant population but is selective as to
quality. Designed to favor certain groups of nationalities, it encourages
the Nordic racial types of northwestern Europe and restricts the Mediter-
ranean and Alpine types of southern and southeastern Europe. This
policy selects a physical type which closely resembles the prevailing
stock in our country, for about 85 percent of the whites in the United
States in 1920 were from strains originating in northwestern Europe
where Nordics predominate. The immigration policy is inconsistent as
applied to the non-white races. The entrance of Chinese and Japanese is
limited, but not that of the Filipinos or the Mexicans.
The question of racial selection is confused by doubt as to which of
the so-called racial traits are inherited. Crime and sickness, for instance,
are frequently a matter of environment. Many personality traits peculiar
to certain peoples are also acquired in the early home environment. The
assimilation of immigrants may result in the loss of distinguishing per-
sonality traits, unless there is some marked physical characteristic to
brand the individual and so to encourage prejudice and psychological
isolation. The persistence of these distinguishing traits is encouraged
by social segregation, separate languages, family life, and religions,
whereas the schools tend to modify them. They persist more stubbornly
among non-white immigrants than among the various racial types of
European origin. It may be questioned if the present basis of selection
according to racial types is a more desirable policy than selection within
a race according to the merits and defects of individuals. However, to
a certain extent our immigration laws take into account individual qualifi-
cations, for example by excluding aliens with records of crime or insanity.
Environmental Influences on the Quality of Peoples. — Breeding is
not the only way in which to improve the quality of the people. Americans
are taller than they used to be because of dietary changes and a reduction
[ xxiv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
in the diseases of childhood which permanently retard growth ; at the
same time bad housing and the reduction of violet rays by the smoky
skies of cities are forces operating against growth. Participants in sports
and athletics benefit thereby; though the number of indoor occupations
involving less physical activity appears to be increasing. Such changes in
the physical qualities are not inherited, but if the culture giving rise to
them continues the gains may not be difficult to maintain. The problem is
rather to extend wholesome environmental influences to those of us who
now share them in lesser degree, particularly to the great numbers with
low incomes. There are limits, however, to the improvements possible by
these methods, limits set by biological laws; the stature of a people cannot
be indefinitely increased; family strains may vary greatly in their possi-
bilities of development.
Mental and social qualities are peculiarly susceptible to influences
of the cultural environment. In early childhood in the family environment
the more firmly imbedded traits of personality are fixed, particularly
the basis for mental health or disorder. These cultural influences are the
subject of the next section. It is clear that within limits the qualities
of peoples are susceptible of great variation because of cultural change.
There is one possible type of influence which may be overwhelming
if it should be developed. This is the influence of physiological inven-
tion. One illustration is the possible influence of new chemical knowledge
on the regulation, growth and functioning of the hormones, particularly
those associated with certain endocrine glands, with possibly astounding
effects on personality and the quality of the population.
Part 3. — PROBLEMS OF SOCIAL HERITAGE
I. INVENTIONS AND ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
Apart from rates of population growth, most of the social changes
which are taking place today are in our social environment rather than
in the natural environment and biological heritage. The fact that con-
ditions in 1930 are different from those in 1920 or 1900 is explained by
changes in culture, not in man or nature.
Material Culture. — The magnificent material portion of our culture
has been developed by scientific discoveries and inventions applied to a
rich natural heritage. This is well understood, but what is less under-
stood is the dynamic nature of this material culture, and the fact that
the problems of society arising out of a changing technology are produced
in large measure by this dynamic element. More and more inventions
are made every year, and there is no reason to think that technological
developments will ever stop. On the contrary, there is every reason to
expect that more new inventions will be made in the future than in the
past. It has required on an average about a third of a century for an
[ XXV ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
invention to become successful after it has been made, and many new or
unheard of inventions are now in existence which will have wide use in
the future. The death rate of inventions is so great, however, that it is
not easy to tell which will be successful. It may be that the world
will find much use for talking books; school and college students may
listen to lectures by long-running phonographs or talking pictures;
moving pictures may be transmitted by wireless into houses; seeing with
that new electric eye, the photo-electric cell, and recording what is
seen, appear to have almost unlimited applications; new musical instru-
ments different from any now in use may be given to us by electricity;
the production of artificial climate may become widespread; an efficient
storage battery of light weight and low cost might produce changes
rivaling those of the internal combustion engine. And these are only a
few of the myriad possibilities from new inventions in the future.
Social Problems Raised by the Communication Inventions. — The
machine got its modern social significance from the earlier phase of the
industrial revolution. Its later phase is characterized by inventions in
the fields of communication and transportation which have brought about
remarkable developments in the transmission of material objects, of the
voice, of vision and of ideas.
The first problems raised by these inventions were those of coordina-
tion and competition, involving the railroad and the bus, the telegraph
and the telephone, the newspaper and the radio. Similar problems are
created by all new inventions, but because of their public aspects the
recent inventions in communication have involved to an unusual degree
planning, regulation and control.
Another set of problems cluster about mobility. These involve hous-
ing, home ownership, family life, child welfare, recreation, residence,
voting and citizenship, land values, increases and declines in population
and migrations of industry. The transmission of goods, of the voice and
possibly of vision may act as a retarding influence on human mobility
in the future and may cause a development of more remote and im-
personal direction and controls.
A further set of problems center about the effectual shortening of
distances and the increasing size of the land area which forms the basis
or unit of operation for many organized activities. Closer communications
favor centralization in social life, in domestic politics and in international
relations. Thus the units of local governments laid out a century or more
ago are now too small for the discharge of various functions. Problems
of jurisdiction arising from the lessened significance of state boundary
lines are increasing. Even national units may be too small in the future,
but this is an embarrassment felt more acutely by other countries than
the United States.
[ xxvi ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
A final group of problems arising from the inventions in the field of
communications concern the greater ease and extent of their diffusion.
Regional isolation is being broken down all over the world. Indeed, the
spread of cultures throughout history has been dependent upon trans-
portation and communication and a social revolution is now under way
in the Orient fostered by these agencies. In general, both here and abroad
cities are the great centers of dispersal of new developments, and from
them new manners and customs, new ideas and useful objects spread
to the villages and countryside. The agencies of mass communication
increase the possibilities of education, propaganda and the spread of infor-
mation. A collateral descendant of George Washington flew in 1932 in a
single day over all the routes which Washington had traversed in the
course of his lifetime. Today, a flight over the poles is known almost
instantly and a single speaker may address an audience of 100,000,000.
These developments bring problems of mass action, of mass production
and of standardization. It is, of course, true that opening channels of com-
munication tends to produce uniformities of speech, manners, styles,
behavior and thought; but this tendency is counteracted in part by the
increasing specializations arising from the accumulation of inventions
which bring to us different vocabularies, techniques, habits and thoughts.
Problems Raised by Our Rapidly Changing Environment of Material
Culture. — Among inventions other than those of communication, but
especially in machines of production, there has been a continual develop-
ment. A larger proportion of work by machines, and a smaller proportion
of human labor is to be expected in the future. In 1870, 77 percent of the
gainfully occupied persons in the United States were engaged in trans-
forming the resources of nature into objects of usable form through
manufacturing, mining and agriculture; in 1930 only 52 percent. There
are indeed a few cases of wholly automatic factories and automatic stores
and many automatic salesmen. Nor are the heavy productive machines
the only ones which are increasing. The modern American surrounds him-
self with small tools and machines for personal use, such as the type-
writer, the radio, the fountain pen, the toothbrush, the golf stick, the
sunlight machine and the ice-making refrigerator.
In 1851-1855, 6,000 patents were granted in the United States, in
1875-1880, 64,000, in 1901-1905, 143,000, and in 1926-1930, 219,000.
This growing number of inventions and scientific discoveries has brought
problems of morals, of education, of law, of leisure time, of unemploy-
ment, of speed, of uniformity and of differentiation, and its continuation
will create more such problems. Social institutions are not easily adjusted
to inventions. The family has not yet adapted itself to the factory; the
church is slow in adjusting to the city; the law was slow in adjusting to
dangerous machinery; local governments are slow in adjusting to the
[ xxvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
transportation inventions; international relations are slow in adjusting to
the communication inventions; school curricula are slow in adjusting to
the new occupations which machines create. There is in our social or-
ganizations an institutional inertia, and in our social philosophies a
tradition of rigidity. Unless there is a speeding up of social invention or a
slowing down of mechanical invention, grave maladjustments are certain
to result.
Industrial Technique and Economic Organization. — To put inventions
to practical use often requires change in parts of the economic structure.
The character of the work called for, its amount, the classes by whom
it is performed, the materials used, the location of industrial plant, the
capital investment, the selling methods, the prices of materials and
products, the disbursement of wages, the profits made — these and a
hundred subsequent matters are affected by improvements in machinery
and industrial procedure. When the pace of technological progress is
rapid, the business enterprises which grasp the new opportunities for
gain bring to pass mass changes in economic conditions, and unwittingly
produce a host of economic problems. All of these problems may be
summed up in the question : How can society improve its economic organi-
zation so as to make full use of the possibilities held out by the march of
science, invention and engineering skill, without victimizing many of its
workers, and without incurring such general disasters as the depression
of 1930-1932?
Distributing the Costs of Progress. — Even before the business collapse
of 1929 Americans had become painfully alive to the rapid growth of
technological unemployment and during the depression the tidal wave of
cyclical unemployment has added its millions to the involuntarily idle.
The depression also has put employers under the severest pressure to
devise more economical methods of production, which mean in many
cases the use of less labor to turn out a given volume of goods. At best,
the problem of technological unemployment promises to remain grave
in the years to come.
One hope for a solution is that inventions of new products will add to
employment more rapidly than the invention of labor saving machines
and methods reduces it. A change in the distribution of income which
put more purchasing power in the hands of wage earners would enor-
mously increase the market for many staples and go far toward providing
places for all competent workers, but for the near future we see little
prospect of a rapid increase of wage disbursements above the 1929 level.
Another possibility is a great expansion of exports; but in a tariff-ridden
world that also seems a dim hope. Barring a marked growth of demand,
various palliatives for the suffering caused by unemployment will receive
much attention. The six hour day and the five day week are methods of
[ xxviii 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
distributing the loss of jobs in a less inequitable fashion. Unemployment
insurance has been rapidly gaining adherents in this country; but what-
ever its merits for tiding wage earners over slack seasons and moderate
cyclical depressions, it cannot provide for those who are out of work for
long periods. On the other hand, the technologically unemployed are
a changing aggregation of individuals, and a solvent unemployment fund
would do much to mitigate the distress which many now suffer before
finding new openings. Perhaps the hardest cases to help are those of men
and women thrown out of work too late in life to appear desirable appli-
cants for new positions. An extension of old age pensions to care for such
victims of progress may bulk large in future discussions.
The Committee is aware of the numerous objections urged against
these schemes of social insurance, and of the heavy costs which they
impose upon society; but it is also impressed by the inarticulate misery
of the hundreds of thousands or millions of breadwinners who are de-
prived of their livelihoods through no fault of their own. To put the cost
of unemployment squarely upon those who remain at work, upon em-
ployers and upon the public purse makes everyone conscious of the
difficulty and focuses attention upon the need of devising more con-
structive methods for dealing with it.
While wage earners are the most numerous, they are by no means
the sole sufferers from technological progress. People whose property is
rendered valueless by new methods may in future demand compensation
after some fashion. For example, investors in public utilities which
have become unprofitable by reason of competition which they cannot
meet and which the state will not prevent may demand that government
buy their holdings. But this is a hazardous speculation and it may be
premature to press it further.
The Problem of Economic Balance. — In the halcyon days of 1925-
1929, there were many who believed that business cycles had been
"ironed out" in this favored land. Everyone now realizes that we have
been suffering one of the severest depressions in our national history.
Those who are acquainted with past experience anticipate that, while
business will revive and prosperity return, the new wave of prosperity
will be terminated in its turn by a fresh recession, which will run into
another period of depression, more or less severe.
Whether these recurrent episodes of widespread unemployment,
huge financial losses and demoralization are an inescapable feature of the
form of economic organization which the western world has evolved is a
question which can be answered only by further study and experiment.
That the severity of the current depression has been due in large measure
to non-cyclical factors is generally admitted. But this admission means
merely that besides checking the excesses of booms, we must learn
[nk]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
how to avoid errors of other types as well before we can hope to make full
use of the productive possibilities which modern technology puts at our
disposal.
Reflection upon this range of ideas leads to more fundamental issues.
The basic feature of our present economic organization is that we get
our livings by making and spending money incomes. This practice offers
prizes to those who have skill at money making; it imposes penalties
upon those who lack the ability or the character to render services for
which others are willing to pay. A decent modicum of industry and thrift
is maintained by most men and women, and the incentive to improve
industrial practice in any way which will increase profits is strong.
When business is active and employment full, this scheme of organiz-
ing the production and distribution of real income yields results upon
which we congratulate ourselves. Probably no other large community
ever attained so high a level of real income as the inhabitants of the
United States enjoyed on the average in, say, 1925-1929.
But even in good times it is clear that we do not make full use of our
labor power, our industrial equipment, our natural resources and our
technical skill. The reason why we do not produce a larger real income
for ourselves is not that we are satisfied with what we have, for in the
best of years millions of families are limited to a meager living. The
effective limit upon production is the limit of what the markets will
absorb at profitable prices, and this limit is set by the purchasing power
at the disposal of would-be consumers.
Yet how can larger sums be paid out in wages and dividends? No
business can pay wages for making goods which will not sell at a profit,
and no business can make a profit if it pays wages higher than its com-
petitors for labor of the same grade of efficiency. Of necessity the business
organizer's task is often the unwelcome one of keeping production down
to a profitable level. There is always danger of glutting the markets — a
danger which seems to grow greater as our power to produce expands and
as the areas over which we distribute our products grow wider. Despite
improvements in communication, increased accuracy in business report-
ing, the strenuous efforts of the Department of Commerce and the rising
profession of business statisticians, the task of maintaining a tolerable
balance between the supply of and the demand for the innumerable
varieties of goods we make, between the disbursing and spending of
money incomes, between investments in different industries and the need
of industrial equipment, between the prices of securities and the incomes
they will yield, between the credit needed by business and the volume
supplied by the banks seems to grow no easier.
When these balances have been gravely disturbed, business activity is
checked by a recession, which is followed by a depression of industry,
[ XXX ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
trade and finance. Then our scheme of economic organization yields
results which satisfy no one. The income of the whole population falls by
10 or 20 percent; in extreme depressions by a substantially greater figure.
And these average losses are accompanied by appalling individual
tragedies in millions of cases, scattered through all classes of society, but
commonest among those who have few reserves.
To maintain the balance of our economic mechanism is a challenge
to all the imagination, the scientific insight and the constructive ability
which we and our children can muster.
Economic Planning. — To deal with the central problem of balance,
or with any of its ramifications, economic planning is called for. At
present, however, that phrase represents a social need rather than a
social capacity. The best which any group of economic planners can do
with the data now at hand, bulky but inadequate, is to lay plans for
making plans. Those who know most about the actual conduct of the
work of the world realize most keenly the magnitude of the task involved
in planning. To work out schemes which could be taken seriously as a
guide to production and distribution would require the long collaboration
of thousands of experts from thousands of places. In addition to the
accumulation and sifting of countless figures not now available, planners
would have to decide intricate problems of social theory, either by think-
ing them out, or by accepting arbitrary rules. To gloss over the difficulties
of the task is no service to mankind; to face them honestly should not
discourage those who have faith in men's capacity to find their way out of
difficulties by taking thought. As the task of planning economic relations
is faced in detail, it is not unlikely that modest schemes will be devised
which will make the present organization work more steadily. It is
more in line with past experience to anticipate a long series of
cumulative improvements which will gradually transform existing
economic organization into something different, than to anticipate a
sudden revolution in our institutions.
Yet the segment of American experience which we are reviewing
includes a brief period during which changes in economic organization
were made at a rapid pace — quite overshadowing for the time being the
pace of technological changes.
Promptly upon entering the World War, the United States followed
the example of its allies and opponents by seeking to mobilize economic
resources behind its military program. With extraordinary rapidity the
federal government not only became incomparably the greatest employer
in the country, incomparably the greatest buyer of goods — all of which
it had become in earlier wars — but it also assumed direct control over
fundamental economic activities. It took the railroads and many of the
ships out of private hands. It regulated exports and imports system-
[ xxxi ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
atically by licenses. It gave priorities in transportation, materials and use
of men to producers of war materials, and purposely repressed industries
non-essential to military efficiency or civilian morale. It intervened
between employer and employee through the war-labor boards. It set up
a Food Administration and a Fuel Administration. It fixed maximum
and minimum prices for thousands of commodities. And it imposed all of
these drastic restrictions upon private initiative and free enterprise
through the zealous cooperation of hundreds of business executives who
served as officials on nominal pay.
Despite the wastes and confusion attending upon this sudden overturn
in economic organization, the mobilization served its purpose. In retro-
spect it offers a significant illustration of the rapidity and the success
with which a people can recast its basic institutions at need. Seemingly,
what engineers regard as the slow pace of change in economic organization
is due more to absence of unity in will and purpose than to lack of capacity
to imagine and carry out alterations. In 1917 the country was nearly
unanimous in putting victory in the war above all other aims. In this
supreme aim it had a criterion sufficiently definite to determine what
should be done. No similar revolution could be effected in times of peace,
unless a similar agreement in purpose, supplying an equally definite
criterion of social values, could be attained. But is it beyond the range of
men's capacity some day to take the enhancement of social welfare as
seriously as our generation took the winning of a war?
Current Changes in Economic Institutions. — To those who look
behind cherished phrases to the actualities of current life, it is clear not
only that economic institutions can be changed, but also that they have
been changing during the period covered by this survey of social trends.
Private property, for example, is commonly supposed to be one of the
fixed principles of our polity. But generation by generation the right of
a man to do what he will with his own has been curbed by the American
people acting through legislators and administrators of their own election.
Perhaps the most spectacular instances have been the abolition of prop-
erty rights in slaves by the Proclamation of Emancipation and the calm
disregard of property rights in the liquor traffic shown by the passage of
the Eighteenth Amendment, but these are only two instances among
thousands of cases in which consideration of the public welfare has been
deemed to justify interference with property. Numberless detailed restric-
tions have been placed upon the uses of particular kinds of property — for
example, municipal ordinances concerning the character of buildings
which may be erected on city lots or the character of business which may
be conducted therein. We have developed elaborate state and federal
systems for regulating an expanding list of public utilities. Government
discriminates between citizen and citizen on the basis of the amount of
[ xxxii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
property owned. The fraction of his income or of his inheritance which a
man is required to pay over to the public treasury depends upon how large
that income or inheritance is. Recipients of "earned" incomes are often
taxed less heavily than recipients of incomes from property. Nor are
transformations of property rights effected solely by government. Com-
petent legal students of modern business practice hold that quietly but
surely the investor as a part owner in a corporation is being shorn in effect
of almost all his privileges, except that of drawing such dividends as the
directors declare and selling his stock when he sees fit. And of course the
small business man often declares that his field of initiative is being
gradually hemmed in by the rapid increase of great corporations.
How much farther such changes will go no man can say. It is con-
ceivable that without any surrender of our belief in the merits of private
property, individual enterprise and self-help, the American people will
press toward a larger measure of public control to promote the common
welfare. One possibility is a further extension of the list of public utilities
to include coal mining and perhaps other industries. Progressive taxes
may be graded at still steeper rates. An upper limit may be put upon
inheritances. Public ownership may be extended, as suggested above, on
the pleas of security owners who see no escape from heavy loss except
through sale to the government. Small business men may succeed in
getting drastic restrictions placed upon corporate enterprises. Farmers
may demand and receive further special legislation to lighten their
burdens. Labor organizations seem likely to push with vigor various
plans for social insurance. And among the interests which will demand
that government concern itself actively with their needs, large corporate
enterprises will continue to occupy a prominent place.
It is not likely that all of the possibilities listed here will become
actualities, but it seems inevitable that the varied economic interests
of the country will find themselves invoking more and more the help of
government to meet emergencies, to safeguard them against threatened
dangers, to establish standards and to aid them in extending or defending
markets. Our property rights remain, but they undergo a change. We
continue to exercise an individual initiative, but that initiative has
larger possibilities, affects others more intimately and therefore is subject
to more public control. Since government action means more to us, we
call for more of it when in need, and object to it more strenuously when
it hampers our plans.
While changes of this type seem bound to continue they can be made
more conducive to the general welfare if they are guided by understanding
and good will than if they are the outcome of a confused struggle between
shifting power groups. Whether we can win the knowledge which is
needed to guide our behavior wisely and apply this knowledge effectively
[ xxxiii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
to our common concerns, are questions which the Committee must
raise, but cannot answer.
II. SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND SOCIAL HABITS
The economic structure of course affects the other institutions of
society, setting the stage for many of the activities of mankind and
modifying the potentialities of life in innumerable directions. Its influence
is particularly powerful on that great group we call labor, on our con-
sumption habits and on the conditions of rural life. It also affects various
other groups and such institutions as the family, the church and the
school, and has much to do with the way in which we spend our leisure
time. And all of these social institutions and habits affect the economic
organization as well. All, indeed, are interrelated, and often the economic
changes come first and occur more rapidly than the correlated changes in
other parts of the social structure.
Labor in Society. — Wage earners may be viewed both as a factor in
production and as a great group in modern society. In the former role
their record of labor in production has shown steadily increasing effici-
ency as measured in output per worker, an increase of 50 percent in the
manufacturing industries since the beginning of the twentieth century.
In part this has been due to the aid given by machines and in part to the
organization of work more closely in accord with the principles of scien-
tific management, supplemented by wiser consideration of personal
factors in working relations. Strikes have declined about 80 percent since
the World War. In so far as increasing production may be due to the
growth of technology the prospect is very bright; in so far as it is due to
harmony in relationships between employer and employee, the past
decade may have been exceptional and friction and strife may arise more
frequently in future.
One of the problems of the future will be the condition of labor
in industry and the part played by wage earners and their organiza-
tions in influencing these conditions. This problem at one time centered
around the question of decent physical conditions of work and the atti-
tudes of employers and workers. Such conditions have been better since the
war, and the growth of scientific management should bring about further
improvements, but this is a vast task and there will no doubt remain many
grievances and complaints without satisfactory means of adjustment.
The problem of the conditions and role of labor has been associated at
other times with the idea of industrial democracy, an extension into
industry of the idea of political democracy with revolutionary possibili-
ties. For a time, around the period of the World War, it appeared as if the
movement might make a beginning here and there. In post-war years,
however, the movement for better management has advanced and less is
[ xxxiv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
heard today of industrial democracy. Solutions may be sought along the
lines of management and plant organization or along the lines of industrial
democracy. Which set of solutions proves dominant is an issue which
will profoundly affect the status of labor in modern society and as such is
vital not only to the workers but to the community as a whole.
From the beginning of the century until the depression beginning in
1929 labor's standard of life has been raised about 25 percent, as measured
by the purchasing power of wages, although this increase prevailed
through only a few of the thirty years. In the two years following 1929,
the aggregate money earnings paid to American employees fell about 35
percent while the cost of living declined 15 percent.
Along with health and happiness, a high standard of living is a great
desideratum of struggling mankind. Abundant natural resources, a slowly
increasing or stationary population and an ever expanding technology all
point over the years to a higher standard of living, if the various possible
strains on the economic organization do not weaken it for too long periods.
Such strains appear in business depressions, in wars, in revolutions or
very rapid transformations and in weaknesses in some particular part of
the structure. For the very near future the standard of living may decline
because of the menace to wages caused by unemployment, the possible
slowness of economic recovery from the depression and the weakness of
collective action on the part of wage earners. Certainly every effort should
be made to prevent any lowering of the plane of living.
No doubt the adequacy of wages for meeting minimum standards of
living will long remain a matter of dispute. The problem of wage adequacy
is affected by the appeals of new goods such as radios, automobiles,
moving pictures, telephones and reading matter. The number of such
items in the future will be greater, and sacrifices in food or in other ways
which affect health will be made, unless all of us can be better educated
as consumers. There is, however, one interpretation which should be
considered. Death rates are still much higher in the lower income groups
than in others. Until a point is reached where the death rate does not vary
according to income, it seems paradoxical to claim that wage earners are
receiving a living wage.
Poverty is by no means vanquished, although how widespread it may
be is not now known for there have been no recent comprehensive studies
of family income and expenditure. The indications are that even in our
late period of unexampled prosperity there was much poverty in certain
industries and localities, in rural areas as well as in cities which was not of
a temporary or accidental nature. The depression has greatly intensified
it. After this crisis is over the first task will be to regain our former
standards, inadequate as they were. The longer and the greater task, to
achieve standards socially acceptable, will remain.
[ XXXV ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In addition to their effort to raise standards of living, wage earners
have had a further objective in trying to shorten the hours of work, and
since the beginning of the century hours have been shortened by about
15 percent. But such an average figure conceals a great variety of condi-
tions. In several industries the hours worked were as high as 60 per week
in 1930 and in others as low as 44. Pioneer and Puritan habits and philo-
sophies regarding long hours of labor have given ground slowly before
the oncoming machine, but long hours of toil promise to be less in the
future and with this lessening of labor comes the problem of how best to
utilize the hours thus saved.
While there has been gain to labor in higher earnings and shorter
hours, there has been no such success against the terror of unemployment.
Along with physical illness and mental disease unemployment ranks as a
major cause of suffering. Fortunately it has been less extensive among
married men than among the widowed, separated and divorced, and
much less than among the single, if we may judge by a few sample studies.
Fewer women than men have lost their jobs, and the old appear to have
remained unemployed a much longer time than the young. According to
an estimate commonly used there were 10,000,000 unemployed in the
summer of 1932, although if there were a system of recording those out
of work, the margin of error in this estimate might be found wide.
Insecurity of employment is characteristic of the economic process,
and no doubt if control of rates of change were possible, unemployment
could be greatly reduced. Free land no longer offers an outlet. Emer-
gency relief is inadequate. The larger problem seems to be that of
making the proper application of the principle of insurance, discussed
elsewhere.
The membership of American trade unions declined from 5 million in
1920 to 3.3 million in 1931, the first time in American history that the
unions did not gain in membership in a period of prosperity. Of great
significance also is the fact that in the big industries such as coal, meat
packing and steel, the unions have lost ground and have made no gains
in others such as the manufacture of automobiles. When other functions
than membership are considered it is clear that the organization of
labor has not gone forward as have other parts of the economic
system. Organizations of employers and of employees have changed at
unequal rates of speed. Unless labor organizations show a more vigorous
growth in the future other resources of society must be drawn upon to
meet these problems.
Consumers and Their Perplexities. — The rising trend of money
incomes after 1900 meant that millions of families had more money to
spend than ever before. The shortening of working hours meant that these
consumers had more leisure in which to enjoy goods. The expansion of
f xxxvi 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
physical output meant that business men had a larger volume of goods
to market. That recently invented goods bulked large among these
products meant that manufacturers and merchants had to teach masses
of men and women new tastes and ways. The changes which occurred in
consumption habits before the depression seem explicable mainly in
terms of these four underlying trends.
To begin with the task of forcing new products into family and
individual budgets: The sponsors of novelties made use of all the arts of
publicity to arouse unsatisfied longings. Their success was promoted by
the fact that people with more than their accustomed sums of money to
spend do not know from past experience how they can get the most satis-
faction from the margin, and must experiment a bit. Hence they are
more than usually open to suggestions conveyed by advertising, or the
examples of others. By extending widely the device of instalment selling,
this margin of unaccustomed purchasing power at the disposal of buyers
was made broader, and gave the promoters of novel products a still better
attack upon the consumer's mind. Meanwhile, the increasing rapidity
and efficiency of communications were making it possible to wage selling
campaigns on a fighting front which stretched across the continent. It is
doubtful whether any earlier decade in the country's history had seen
the wholesale adoption of so many new goods, such considerable changes
in the habits of consumers, as the years 1920-1929.
The financial motives for launching new products have always been
strong. The maker of a new article which appeals to buyers can hope to
escape at least for a few years from close price competition. In 1920-1929,
when output was increasing with unusual rapidity and wholesale prices
on the whole were sagging, these motives were peculiarly strong. But
the favorite methods of seeking to profit from new products seem to
have changed in a measure. In the past, the novelty has often been held
at a high price for years, and only gradually reduced to a level at which
the masses of wage earners could afford to buy. Recently this process
has been telescoped. Men who believed they had a novelty with a wide
appeal often tried from the start to bring their article within the reach
of as many consumers as possible, and hoped that they might realize
the profits yielded by small margins multiplied by millions of sales.
Faced by such tactics, the purveyors of long familiar goods have had
difficulty in maintaining their shares in the consumer's dollar. In self-
defense, they too have resorted to high pressure salesmanship, payment
by instalments, and the like. Hence an enormous increase in the thought
and the money lavished upon selling, and an enormous intensification
of the attack upon the consumer's attention. Not only is the housewife
solicited to buy for two dollars down and a dollar a month a dozen attrac-
tive articles her mother never dreamed of; she is also told of unsuspected
[ xxxvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
merits in products she has used all her life, which now come in new
packages under seductive brands. The task of making wise choices
becomes harder the more products are diversified, the more genuine
novelties appear in the list, the more old types are dressed up in new
wrappings, and the more conflicting advice is dinned into the buyer's
ears.
The difficulty is a profound one, resting in the twist given our thinking
as individuals by our scheme of institutions. Under our form of economic
organization, the economic status of a family depends primarily upon
the size of its money income. Hence, we devote far more attention to
making money than to spending it. For example, in passing upon tariff
issues at the polls, we are influenced much more by arguments about
the effect of import duties upon wages, employment, and profits than by
arguments about their effects upon the cost of living. There is scarcely a
trade or profession in the country which has not formed an association
to safeguard its economic prospects. Every member of every one of these
associations is also a consumer; that is the only economic characteristic
we all have in common. But we give not a tithe of the thought to this
basic common interest which we give to the task of getting more dollars
for our individual selves.
Our emphasis upon making money is re-enforced by the technical
difficulties of spending money. Consumption involves the buying of a
large number of different commodities, mainly in small lots. No single
price means much to us; nor does the quality of the single purchase
mean a great deal. To make much trouble about any one item scarcely
"pays." To act wisely about all the issues involved is beyond our capacity
as individuals. Yet our interests as consumers constitute our fundamental
economic interests. Or are we mistaken when we say that most men work
in order that they and their families may enjoy a comfortable living?
It would seem that there is little likelihood of improving common
practice except by the development of special organizations to promote
our interests as consumers more effectively than we can promote them
as individuals. Government bureaus might conceivably play that role;
but so far as the American government is representative of the American
people it shares the basic defect in our thinking, and therefore seems
little likely to correct it. As money makers, we can be relied upon promptly
to object to any official service to consumers which jeopardizes our
individual interests as producers. To give detailed advice about the
qualities and "values" of competing products would require continual
revisions to keep the information up to date. Any bureau which undertook
such a service would invite charges of favoritism. It is not easy to see
how the government could surmount the difficulties. Private ventures
toward supplying what is needed in the way of counsel are being tried;
[ xxxviii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
but the scale of the services now rendered is small. "Home economics"
courses are given to an increasing number of pupils in schools; but it is
difficult to make these courses deal realistically with the rapidly shifting
problems which the housewife confronts as a buyer. In short, the prospect
of making our habits of consumption more rational and of getting the
maximum satisfaction made possible by our technical progress is not
bright. We may be losing ground, and perhaps we shall continue to lose
for a long time to come.
Rural Trends and Problems. — The lives of the inhabitants of our
great rural areas are being profoundly modified by a score of factors.
Improved communications, the advantages of quantity production
and possibilities of national marketing are increasing in all sections
of the country that tendency toward uniformity of American life which
has long impressed foreigners accustomed to the picturesque varia-
tions of housing, dress, manners and speech in Europe. Those groups
of the population which change their economic and social habits most
slowly are now objects of this pressure. Cities have long been subject
to rural influences through migration. Now rural communities — villagers
as well as farmers — are obtaining from the cities, where most inventions
are made, more of the new conveniences and amenities which invention
offers, and find that they are entangled in perplexities, arising from the
fact that new and old habits do not fuse harmoniously. Thus the economic
union of the country and the village is assuming new forms, largely shaped
by the automobile and the communication inventions; but the adjust-
ments of school, church and government are proving difficult. The
trend toward the village has weakened the open country churches, and
has not brought country members to the village churches as rapidly as
the country churches are closed. In the districts which have not adopted
the consolidated school, there are still many small open country schools
with only a few pupils. Village high schools and commercial schools
draw students from the surrounding farms which do not share in the
control of educational policy. Local governments set up a century ago in
jurisdictions based upon travel by horse and upon wealth largely in farm
lands are not suited to the extended areas of operations caused by the
automobile and the railroad or to the newer forms and distributions of
wealth. These illustrations show the nature of the problems of rural and
village life caused by the economic and technological forces of change.
The issue in part is one of an improved coordination of villages and farms
but it is also a problem of better union with the cities. These relationships
affect not a small class, but the whole body of the nation. There are
approximately 30 million people living on farms and 32 million more in
communities with populations of less than 10,000. While many rural com-
munities may have passed the peak of difficulties in making their adjust-
[ xxxix ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ments to the automobile and its concomitants and in these respects
are becoming more stable, we must expect that further changes initiated
elsewhere will necessitate further adjustments in the years to come.
The process is one of diffusion of new agencies of change from centers of
dispersal along the channels of communication, reaching last those
places farthest removed from their point of origin.
The plane of living in many far outlying rural sections has been but
slightly affected by recent improvements. In the richer districts higher
standards of living are set up, education is strengthened, and there are
more new improvements. In poorer sections usually far removed from the
great zones of transportation, there are higher mortality rates, and the
knowledge upon which effective citizenship is based is more difficult to
obtain. The idea of a national minimum standard — in health, in educa-
tion, in culture as well as in income — below which citizens should not
be allowed to fall is applicable to localities as well as to individuals.
Recognition of the difficulties of the poorer or more isolated communities
in helping themselves effectively has led to a wide use of grants in aid,
whereby assistance from central sources or richer centers is extended
under certain conditions. Because of the utilization of this principle in
the past decade, fewer mothers have died in childbirth and many children
are better educated, to mention only two effects. It should be realized,
moreover, that the state aid extended to rural schools and other rural
institutions is small in comparison with the contribution which the
countryside makes to the cities in the form of the millions of young
people, ready for life's work. The cost of rearing and educating the
migrants from the farms to the cities during the decade 1920-1930 has
been estimated by our experts at about 10 billion dollars.
Maintenance of a national minimum by grants in aid would not be
necessary if a very large area were used as the base for collecting revenue
and making expenditures. In cities the budgetary unit is not the ward
but the whole city, and thus there is no need of a grant in aid to a poor
ward in order to maintain sanitation, health and education. Since com-
munication is unifying regions as cities are unified, the problem centers on
grants in aid or changes in sizes of governmental units. In either case the
spirit of local government is affected, but that has already been modified
by the communication agencies.
How radically the countryside will be transformed by machinery,
transportation and communication remains to be seen. These were the
forces which made modern cities. Now they are extending their sway over
rural regions with possible transformations in manners, morals and
customs.
Of those gainfully occupied a smaller percentage is engaged in farming
than in manufacturing, and the rural part of our population has fallen in
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
numbers below the urban. Political institutions have lagged behind
economic institutions, however, as is witnessed by the over-representation
of rural regions in state legislatures. The population of three-fifths of the
states remains more than half rural and by 1950 perhaps nearly half the
states will still be more than one-half rural. These facts must be recognized
in plans regarding education, business and other important phases of
national policy.
Minority Groups. — Unless the recent restrictions upon immigration
are relaxed or the declining trend in the natural increase of color groups
is reversed, the much debated problem of minority ethnic groups will
become less acute, although the relationship of Negroes and whites will
raise continuing problems. From time to time new elements in the popula-
tion may be introduced such as the recent accession of Filipinos and
Mexicans. The development of distant peoples for whose welfare the
United States has assumed a degree of responsibility has created a
problem which requires attention, and there are signs of a more alert and
sympathetic understanding. Yet our country is a colonial power without
a well developed colonial policy.
The problem of the minority groups both within and without the
continental United States is not so much racial as cultural. Adaptation
needs to be mutual if the varied strains are to be knit into a productive
and peaceful economic and social order.
Social discrimination, injustice and inequality of opportunity often
block the path of adaptation both in the case of the foreign born and of
native color groups. In the past the relations of Negroes and whites
have been marred by evidence of friction and injustice, but more recently
there has been a growing spirit of accommodation. As Negroes have
moved northward and westward from southern towns and cotton fields,
new questions have arisen over their entrance into industry and politics,
questions which may become more widespread in the future. Their
elevation in the economic and cultural scale will probably mean a more
effective group consciousness. Rights of minorities need especially to be
guarded and interpreted with understanding, such understanding as
develops most soundly from mutual discussion and mutual action.
While some of the problems presented by minority groups based upon
race and nationality seem likely to decline in prominence, the cognate
problems of groups with special interests based upon economic or occupa-
tional needs will loom large in future. Many of these groups will un-
doubtedly become more insistent in their demands and their methods of
securing recognition may raise new questions. The forces of technology
and science are leading to a variety of associations based on economic
interests, and in a country whose political representation is geographical
these non-territorial interests have no direct government channels
[ xli ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
through which to make themselves felt. Occupational and economic
groups have thus been forced to devise other ways of expressing them-
selves— by propaganda, by lobbying and by work through associations.
As society becomes more heterogeneous in its economic interests the
problem of minority groups of this kind promises to become more com-
plicated and more grave. Indeed group conflicts of one kind or another
still remain as a national social problem.
The Family. — The family is primarily the social organization which
meets the need of affection and provides for the bearing and nurture of
children. It is sometimes forgotten that it could once lay claim on other
grounds to being the major social organization. It was the chief economic
institution, the factory of the time, producing almost all that man con-
sumed. It was also the main educational institution. The factory displaced
the family as the chief unit of economic production in large part because
steam, which took the place of man power, could not be used efficiently
in so small a unit as the home. Some of the economic functions of the family
were transferred to the factory and store, although it remains the
most important consumption unit. At the same time, the educational and
protective functions were transferred in part to the state or to industry.
Other institutions, organized on a large scale, less personal in character,
less steeped in feeling, but with greater technical efficiency, grew up
outside the home and gradually extended their influence upon the lives
of members of the family in their outside activities.
The changes in industry have been more rapid than those in the
family, as witnessed by the survival of old forms of family law, of the
patriarchal-employer conception of the husband, of the old theories
as to the proper place of women in society, and of the difficulties of
adequate child training.
The various functions of the home in the past served to bind the
members of the family together. As they weakened or were transferred
from the home to outside agencies, there were fewer ties to hold the
members with a consequent increase of separation and divorce. Divorces
have increased to such an extent that, if present trends continue, one of
every five or six bridal couples of the present year will ultimately have
their marriage broken in the divorce court. This prospect has led to much
concern over the future of the family, and prophecies that it will become
extinct. Anthropologists, however, tell us that no people has ever been
known without the institution of the family. On the other hand, many
peoples have had higher rates of separation and remarriage, especially
those with simpler cultures than ours. Few cultures, however, have or
ever have had families which perform as few economic functions as do
American families today dwelling in city apartments. These facts suggest,
as does a projection of the divorce curve, that our culture may be con-
[ xlii]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
ducive to further increases in divorce unless programs are instituted to
counteract this tendency. The growing divorce rate apparently has not
acted as a deterrent to marriage, for the married percentage of the
population has been increasing during the 40 years for which there are
records.
With the weakening of economic, social and religious bonds in the
family, its stability seems to depend upon the strength of the tie of affec-
tion, correlated sentiments and spiritual values, the joys and responsi-
bilities of rearing children. How to strengthen this tie, to make marriage
and the family meet more adequately the personality needs and aspira-
tions of men and women and children is the problem. This is a task in
which the clergy and clinics are already showing an increasing interest.
Much more knowledge is needed of the psychology of emotional expres-
sion and there is opportunity and need for the artist as well as the moralist.
There are few problems of society where success would bring richer
rewards.
Back of the facts on numbers of marriages and percentages of divorce,
there are diverse personalities and the play of human emotions which
defy exact measurement. Happiness and unhappiness have been little
studied by science, yet happiness is one of our most cherished goals. As
economic institutions are the clue to the standard of living, so, perhaps,
the institution of the family is nearest that elusive thing called happiness.
Opinions vary as to how much unhappiness there is in marriage, but in
several studies, with rather large samples, generally among educated
groups, around three-fourths or four-fifths are reported as happily
married, either by the married persons themselves or by close friends
of the families. The ratings are fairly constant. While science has thrown
little light on what happiness is, it appears to be closely bound up with
the affections. The family, of course, does not have a monopoly of the
affectional life, and happiness may be found in work, in religion and in
many other ways. Although closely related to the affections, happiness
is based upon the whole personality and its successful integration,
and this integration goes back to childhood and the family setting.
The family is not only concerned with the happiness of adults but by
shaping the personalities of its children more than any other institu-
tion it determines their capacity for happiness. Further progress in
mental hygiene may provide wholly unsuspected help in this field.
The study of marriage and divorce may not only aid in stabilizing the
family but may also help us on the road to happiness.
Children. — The world is just beginning to realize the importance of
our early years in making us what we are. Much of what is thought of as
heredity is really the family influence on the personality of the child, an
influence quite as significant socially as any that the family possesses. An
[ xliii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
attempt to realize the human potentialities here and to prevent some of
the tragedies which occur is being made through parent education, but
to reach the millions of mothers scattered in individual homes is no easy
task and such influences on a large scale can be directed more easily
through the schools. The home is a very conservative institution, as the
leaders of Communism in Russia know, for the habits and beliefs of parents
tend to be transmitted to the children. These potentialities of child
development and the responsibility of parenthood make parent education
a major problem of the future.
An influence affecting the status of children is their diminishing pro-
portion in society. In 1930 for the first time there were fewer children
under five years of age in one census year than in the one preceding. For
the first time also there were fewer children under five years of age than
from 5 to 10 years of age. In some cities already there are not enough
children to occupy the desks in the earlier grades. This decreasing en-
rollment has not yet reached the high schools, but it is only a question of
time, unless a larger proportion of those out of school are continued in
school. Though the supply of children is being restricted, the demand for
them continues. The value of children to society may be expected to rise
and more attention will be given to their well being and training, espe-
cially if wealth continues to increase. This interest has already been shown
by the three White House Conferences on the child, the first called by
President Roosevelt in 1909, the second by President Wilson in 1919 and
the third by President Hoover in 1929, dealing with all aspects of child-
hood and its conservation.
The prospect of increased interest in children and their well being
should not lead to complacency, however, for there is still imminent dan-
ger to the child in nervousness and mental disorder, a danger which may
be greater in the small family system. Nor should the damage to childhood
from economic insecurity and its consequence for the family be forgotten.
Furthermore, there is stimulus to action in the thought of the scarcely
touched resources for better childhood. Indeed some educators believe
that a better rearing of children may lead to a healthier psychological
adjustment of man to civilization through the refusal to accept the irra-
tional and unhealthy customs that exist all around us. Enthusiasts even
see the possibility of directing social change through the manner of rearing
children.
With this interest and hope for such high rewards, there is a pressing
need of research yielding specific and exact knowledge which may be
applied generally by mothers, fathers and teachers. Even now in a terri-
tory as large as ours and with knowledge so unequally distributed there
is a lag in the application of available knowledge as well as in the desired
coordination of home, school, church, community, industry and govern-
[ xliv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
ment. The problem here is to utilize available resources to conserve child-
hood in the midst of rapidly shifting conditions of family life. There is a
possibility that the schools, nurseries or other agencies may enroll a larger
proportion of the very young children in the future. In the United States
20 percent of all children 5 years old were in school in 1930 as compared
with 17 percent in 1900.
Women. — As production of economic goods was transferred from the
home to outside industry, men's work went from the homestead to
factories and stores. Women did not work outside the home to the same
extent, partly no doubt because children, cooking and housekeeping
still occupied them at home, although a number of their occupations,
such as spinning, weaving, soap making and laundering were transferred
to outside institutions. The number of women working outside the home
is increasing. In 1900, 21 percent of all women over 16 years of age were
gainfully employed while in 1930 the percentage was 25. In manufactur-
ing the percentage of women employed is declining, but it is increasing
rapidly in the clerical occupations, in trade and transportation and in the
professions. Women are employed in some 527 occupations; but they
tend to concentrate in a few callings, for about 85 percent of the employed
women are in 24 different occupations. It is the younger women and the
unmarried who form the bulk of women at work outside the home. One
in four of all females 16 years old and over is employed and only one in
eight married women is employed, but the percentage of married women
at work is increasing much more rapidly than the number of women
gainfully occupied and the average age of women who are breadwinners
is rising slowly.
Women constitute a potentially large supply of workers, their bargain-
ing power is weak, there are some uncertainties regarding their continuity
of employment, and for these reasons their wages are low. Their entrance
into industry, then, presents a number of problems involving legislation
and organization.
The transfer of functions from the home has not been solely economic.
Many functions have gone to the government, as for instance educational
and protective functions, as well as regulatory controls over industry.
With the losses of the family as a social institution, other institutions,
clubs and associations, amusements, libraries, and political organizations
are centers of activities outside the home. It has been said that some
homes are merely "parking places" for parents and children who spend
their active hours elsewhere. In the political field, since the ratification of
the Nineteenth Amendment the percentage of women registering for
voting is a good deal less than that for men, but from sample studies
available it appears to be increasing, and women have sat in both houses
of Congress and have held office in federal, state and local jurisdictions.
[ xlv 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The diminution of the home occupations and activities of women
opens several possibilities. One is the entrance of women into industry
as has been noted. If there were more part time jobs the movement would
probably be accelerated. Another possibility is the entrance of women
into civic work and political activities. A third is the heightened stand-
ard of the quality of housework. A fourth is more recreation and leisure.
The future position of women will be determined by the degree of flow
into these channels and the problem is to direct this flow into the channels
most desirable. Meanwhile, the tradition lingers that woman's place is in
the home and the social philosophy regarding her status has not changed
as rapidly as have the various social and economic organizations. The
problem of changing these lagging attitudes amounts in many cases
to fighting for rights and against discrimination. Women are newcomers
into the outside world hitherto mainly the sphere of men. Many barriers
of custom remain and the community is not making the most of this
potential supply of able services.
Housing and the Household. — Society is trying to strengthen the home
and the family by many aids, such as courts, social legislation, home
economics courses, and the church. An important effort to strengthen
the family is concerned with good housing. The influence of housing in
family life is observed in the case of the apartment house, which in its
present form is ill adapted to children, but which presents savings in
household duties and makes possible certain advantages of congregate
living. New homes in multi-family dwellings were almost 50 percent of the
new homes in cities constructed before the depression, but only a small
proportion of families, twelve percent, live in apartments. Although the
percentage of home ownership has been increasing slightly in the country
as a whole, the mobility of population encourages renting rather than
home owning. About half of the nation's families live in rented homes.
The problem is how to secure reduction of construction costs, greater
use of economic organization, science and invention. To meet the need
of better housing at lower costs improved methods of financing by
private organizations are being tried for families of the lower income
groups. Proposals of changes in the system of taxation are also being
made. The question of governmental aid in one form or another will
probably arise in view of the social utility of good homes. The improve-
ment of housing involves the organization of the whole community
through city and regional planning. In cities the new distribution of
population effected by the automobile has accentuated the housing
problem in old residence sections near business districts. Bad housing
in these areas and also in rural areas persists in part because of the
durability of the construction materials used in the old houses. If the
life of a house were short, or if the cost of modernization were small, it
[ xlvi 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
would be easy to adopt the new standards and conveniences in kitchens
and bath rooms and in heating and cooling systems. New inventions in
materials and designs of homes as well as in equipment are said to fore-
shadow a revolution in housing methods and if so may greatly aid in
working out the problem.
Electricity is a form of power which can be transferred considerable
distances and is adapted to the size of the household so that the number
of electrical appliances for the home now reaches well into the hundreds.
While steam has been the enemy of the household, electricity is its friend,
but that electricity will restore the home to its former economic prestige
is not likely. There are, however, 26 million women who have part or
full time jobs as housewives and where there is a housewife there is a
home.
Schools. — Reverence for the home, especially for the part it plays
in building the personality and character of children indicates our
potential interest in values other than material ones. Another social
institution, the school, is a center of hope and concern. Few countries
have ever been so eager for education as the United States.
Nearly all children of the elementary school age now go to school
in this country, although the attendance of the Negroes is much below
that of the whites. Of those of high school age, about 50 percent are now
in school — evidence of the most successful single effort which government
in the United States has ever put forth. An eight-fold increase of high
school enrollments and a five-fold increase for college since 1900 is a
great achievement but it must be remembered that there are still many
who do not share these advantages. If, however, the growth of higher
education continues a question may well be raised as to whether there
will be enough of the so-called "white collar" jobs for those with higher
degrees. Yet the higher education is clearly cultural and not wholly
vocational and plumbers may discuss Aristotle with intellectual if not
financial profit.
As the volume of knowledge to be acquired increases in the future,
the question as to how long a person should go to school will be raised.
The biological age for marriage is reached some time in the teens
and in most cases earning a living cannot long be delayed. This prob-
lem will be worked out no doubt by improvements in the curricula
of the high school and the grade schools and by night schools and pro-
grams of adult education. With shorter hours of labor a program of edu-
cation for adults may be developed and become widespread, although
at present the great enemy to adult education is the competition of
amusements.
It will always be difficult to keep curricula in adjustment with chang-
ing times and with new knowledge. Some schools and colleges still offer
[ xlvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
courses which are survivals from the scholasticism of the Middle Ages.
The proportion of emphasis to be placed on vocational courses and
trade schools as compared with the proportion put on the less specifically
utilitarian subjects is one of the questions of educational policy. A democ-
racy with a mechanical civilization and with an increasing heterogeneity
of shifting occupations must ask much of its schools.
The changes in industrial, economic and social conditions which have
taken place in recent years create a demand for a kind of education
radically different from that which was regarded as adequate in earlier
periods when the social order was comparatively static. Members of
a changing society must be prepared to readjust their ideas and their
habits of life. They not only must be possessed of certain types of knowl-
edge and skill which were common at the time when they went to school,
but they must be trained in such a way as to make them adaptable to
new conditions.
Indeed, it may be said that the failures of coordination in modern life
are attributable in no small measure to the tendency of human beings to
fall into fixed habits and conservative attitudes. Many individuals are
unsuccessful because of their inability to adjust themselves to the changes
which take place about them.
The schools deal with the world of ideas as well as vocational training.
They are centers of thought. What ideas shall be passed on may be an
issue in the future when the full power and influence of communication
inventions in dealing with mass stimuli are realized. Among fascists,
communists, churches, patriots and social reformers it is already a matter
of grave concern who shall control the ideas of the children.
The Church. — The ideas and values of life have in the past centered
in the church more than in any other social institution except the family.
The role of the church in society was at one time extraordinarily broad.
It dominated international relations; it was the patron of the arts;
it taught the ethics of family life; medical practice and healing were
among its functions; and education and learning were sponsored almost
wholly by it. Religious issues determined migration and wars. As time
went on the church became differentiated from the state, in large part
it was separated from politics and education, and was dissociated from
healing. Ethics and religion have been traditionally united, but whether
this association will continue may be problematical.
Up to 1926, the date of the last religious census, the church in the
United States had increased its membership at about the same rate that
the general population had grown. In the five years following 1926, the
Protestant church membership — the only one for which we have figures —
is reported to have increased 2.5 percent, less than the increase in popu-
lation. It may be inferred that the rate of gain in membership has grown
[ xlviii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
faster since 1929, as the influence of a depression is to increase church
membership. From 1906 to 1926 the wealth of churches increased more
rapidly than did the national income. This is explained in part by the
adoption of better techniques of raising contributions. Sunday school
enrollment increased, 1916-1926, less rapidly than did the number of
children in the total population, although the youth organizations of a
religious nature have grown very rapidly, especially during the World War.
What has happened to religious ideas and beliefs is not recorded by
the census, but it has been possible to draw some conclusions from studies
of religious publications. In the proportion of religious books per 1,000
listed in the United States Catalog, and in the percentage of religious
articles listed in Reader's Guide there has been a decline since the begin-
ning of the century, although both showed a marked increase when the
right to teach the theory of evolution in the schools was before the courts.
The proportion which the circulation of Protestant religious publications
bears to all periodical circulation has also similarly declined. Analysis of
religious writings for this period showed that the number of articles on
traditional religious topics has decreased relatively, while certain revisions
of traditional religious beliefs received increased attention, indicating a
change in religious creeds. Some religious beliefs are coordinated with the
scientific outlook of the day, and changes in science produce a lagging
adjustment in religious beliefs. The problem of reconciling religion and
science is often very serious for the troubled spirit of modern man. This is
a special case of a general problem, namely, that of the adaptation of the
church to changing conditions. The attempts to develop social programs
under church auspices and the movements for church unity and cooper-
ation among religious denominations are indications that the church is
aware of this need.
There is reason to think that the structure of religious organizations
will persist, however their functions change. There are 44 million church
members; the youth organizations reach 6 million young people and
church property is valued at 7 billion dollars. How their functions may
evolve is a grave issue. One function is that of ministering to the needs of
people who suffer in a world of stress and strain. Another is that of serving
social and community life. Still another function is that of an ethical guide
and force not only for individual but also for social conduct. The church
is legally separated from the state; it is not formally in politics, but it has
taken interest in such problems as those of the family, marriage and
divorce, the prohibition of the sale of intoxicating drinks, capital and
labor relationships, crime, and many local community questions. The
question is with what varying degrees of vigor and resource will the
forward movements of the churches be directed along these different
routes.
[ xlix 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Morals and Attitudes. — Various agencies of society other than school
and church are engaged in the generation and transmission of ideas, as
for example, the press and the library, and these sources yield information
on changing attitudes and interests. Publications in books and in articles
show a growing interest in science and the scientific outlook. Attitudes,
as judged by publications, have also undergone changes in recent years,
indicating a decline of the authority of the past in religion, science
and sex. Precedent is very much stronger in the case of government
and law.
Our experts made no extensive inquiry concerning trends in morals
but it requires no special investigation to see the setting given by social
change to the problem of rules of guidance for conduct. In a stationary
and simple society such as is often found among primitive peoples the
conditions of life are much the same from generation to generation. A
father knows about what the conditions of life will be for his son and his
son's son. Rules of conduct can be worked out in great detail. They be-
come tested by experience and can be applied minutely to specific
situations. The authority of the past is mighty. There is majesty in
the law.
In a changing heterogeneous society such as ours, many situations
are new. Specific detailed rules of guidance based on the past are difficult
to apply. Rules are worked out but they are abstract and tend to be
too general for detailed guidance. The authority of the past tends to
fade. Recourse to reason is difficult to apply and often fails in the emo-
tional situations where the problems of conduct arise. Perhaps the study
of mental hygiene may uncover new resources to help in these moral
perplexities.
Codes of behavior and manners which are found carefully worked
out in stationary societies serve the purpose of restricting the play of
selfishness and egotism. In a changing society, the breaking down of
these codes removes some of the restrictions on selfishness, and thus the
problem of moral conduct is made more difficult in modern society.
Social philosophies are somewhat like codes of morals in their resist-
ance to change. Their changes often lag behind the social organizations
with which they are connected. Thus economic philosophies in regard to
laissez-faire and competition persist in fields where the combination
movement is an accomplished fact. Old fashioned attitudes toward work
persist under urban factory conditions. Much confusion is engendered in
the minds of men and women and young people generally by the gradual
crumbling of many solid dependable beliefs which sustained the people
of the nineteenth century.
Changes in habits are almost as difficult to measure as changes in
ideas and morals. Habits and customs are being increasingly modified by
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
changes in occupation and in residence. Less than one quarter of the
population now lives on farms. The change in the manner of life indicated
by this small proportion is profound, and now the habits within the rural
regions are changing too. Our expert studies in the shifting patterns of
occupations show many alterations in daily life. The old skills of workmen
which required years to build up are disappearing in the face of mass
production. We have taken to wheels; farmers use machines, gasoline
engines and electricity; the farmer, like the city man, no longer speaks to
everyone he meets on the road in his far-ranging car; more workmen are
wearing white collars; middlemen multiply; engineers are increasing
greatly in number, while the proportion of clergymen is decreasing; there
were ten newspaper men in 1930 to one in 1870. And these are only
random observations illustrative of our changing habits.
Problems Presented by Increasing Leisure. — As has frequently been
pointed out men work fewer hours per day and per week and the home
tasks of women are less time consuming; child labor has been greatly
reduced, and though school time has been extended children may share in
growing leisure no less than their parents.
To profit by the potential market offered by increasing leisure, many
forms of amusement or recreation have been provided on a commercial
basis, as for instance, moving pictures, automobile touring, travel, radio,
boxing, tennis, golf, baseball, football, dancing and "resorts." On these
and similar recreations in the late 1920's our experts show that we spent
10 or 12 billion dollars a year. The curves of growth for most of these
expenditures show steep slopes. Seemingly we spend more time, certainly
we spend more money on these modern diversions than our forefathers
spent on their typical recreations of fishing, hunting, riding and visiting.
How best to use growing leisure hours is an individual problem in
which organized society has a large stake. Americans have but scanty
traditional equipment for amusing themselves gracefully and whole-
somely. Advertisements set forth what our forefathers would have called
temptations. We are urged to yield to their enticements by notions of
human nature which differ radically from those entertained even in our
own childhoods. Man is not a machine, we say; his nature is not adapted
to long hours of work at repetitive tasks; recreation is a physiological
need as much as food; if wisely chosen it is good for both mind and
body.
In our early history what recreation was indulged in remained under
the aegis of the home or the community, except for certain scarcely
respectable types. We still feel that the recreation of other people should
be supervised; but clearly the home cannot exercise efficient supervision
when recreation, because of the greater mobility of people and for profit
making reasons, is provided in the form of mass entertainment. A growing
[in
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
proportion of people admit that workers on machines or in shops and
offices need recreation, and many of them also demand that the munic-
ipality or state assume censorship and control. On the other hand, we see
evidence of rising impatience with government supervision of people in
their free hours. One of the problems which will still need attention in
supplying this almost insatiable hunger for amusement and diversion is
to devise a method by which the standards held essential by the com-
munity may be protected, at the same time allowing for the free play of
new ideas and entertaining novelties.
By virtue of commercialization, the problem of leisure is bound up
with purchasing. Not only automobiles, radios and theater tickets, but
also many objects of household decoration or personal adornment are
bought to make leisure hours more enjoyable. By way of evidence con-
cerning our national scale of values, consider the following miscellaneous
list of American expenditures in 1929: 200 million dollars were spent on
flowers and shrubs, 600 million on jewelry and silverware, 400 million
on newspapers, 700 million dollars on cosmetics and beauty parlors, 900
million on games and sports, 2,000 million on motion pictures and con-
certs, and 4,000 million on home furnishings. The outlays upon some
items in this list have been heavily cut during the depression; but there
is little doubt that expenditures upon recreations and indulgences of
many kinds will tend to rise in the future as per capita income grows.
Study of family budgets shows that as available income rises, smaller
percentages of the total are spent on such essentials as food, rent, fuel
and light, while larger percentages are spent on miscellaneous items.
These facts concerning present expenditures contain a forecast of changes
in the allocations of average family budgets in the future.
Business, with its advertising and high pressure salesmanship, can
exert powerful stimuli on the responding human organism. How can
the appeals made by churches, libraries, concerts, museums and adult
education for a goodly share in our growing leisure be made to compete
effectively with the appeals of commercialized recreation? Choice is
hardly free when one set of influences is active and the other set quiescent.
From one and a half to two billion dollars were spent in 1929 on advertis-
ing— how much of it in appealing for use of leisure we do not venture to
guess. Whether or not the future brings pronounced irritation with the
increasing intrusions upon our psychological freedom by advertisements,
the problem of effecting some kind of equality in opportunity and appeal
as between the various types of leisure time occupations, both commercial
and non-commercial, as between those most vigorously promoted and
those without special backing, needs further consideration.
The growth of great cities with the accompanying overcrowding has
interfered with leisure time activities in another way, namely, by leaving
[ Hi ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
space neither sufficient nor safe for active outdoor play. While the newer
trends outward from the most congested central portions of these districts
may relieve the deficiency in part, the reservation of necessary areas or
the provision of equivalent facilities of other types remains as a problem
for many communities.
The development by the government of parks, playgrounds, camping
places and bathing beaches is an attempt to solve the problem. In recent
years since automobiles have been commonly used, the natural scenery
of our country has been enjoyed much more than ever before. This enjoy-
ment has been facilitated by the policies of federal and state government
in setting aside from private use for the enjoyment of future generations
places of great natural beauty in which our country is singularly rich.
Among the opportunities offered by the broader range of modern recrea-
tion there are few affording deeper and more lasting satisfaction than the
contemplation of the scenes of nature. Indeed, one of the common bonds
of experience among men of all groups and types is the enjoyment of
natural beauty.
The Arts. — Not only in passive enjoyment, but in practice, art touches
our hours of leisure much more closely than it does our working time,
A comparison of the census records of 1920 and 1930 shows in general that
artists of various kinds are increasing more rapidly than the general
population. The trend of art in America must be treated primarily as a
matter of opinion, but there is some factual material which indicates a
growth in art interests, as for example the increase at all educational
levels in art instruction as compared with other subjects, the growth of
museum attendance — the Metropolitan Museum in New York showing
today a greater annual attendance than the Louvre in Paris. Upon certain
points there seems to be general agreement: the stimulating effect of
certain inventions, as for example coal tar colors and cellulose products,
or the influence of electricity on music, an increased interest in the
appearance of the home, the enlistment of art and artists by commerce
and industry as an aid to sales. In architecture, the United States is a
recognized leader.
From a social point of view, as contrasted with art for art's sake, the
problem of art, like that of religion and recreation, turns today on its
service to man in his inner adjustment to an environment which shifts
and changes with unexampled rapidity. Art appears to be one of the great
forces which stand between maladjusted man and mental breakdown,
bringing him comfort, serenity and joy.
It appears, from inquiries, that while conscious enjoyment of the
fine arts is becoming more general, a much more widespread movement is
the artistic appreciation, both as to color and design, of the common
objects which surround us in our daily lives. That these changes are
[mi]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
largely unconscious, and that they are seldom recognized as touching the
field of the arts, does not detract from their significance.
The artistic tradition of the United States is of course less rich than
that of older countries. So far as beauty consists in the establishment of
harmony between appearance and function, a rapidly changing society
such as ours would appear to be a stimulating factor. So far as beauty
depends on decoration, the history of the past would indicate that artistic
adjustment to a cultural pattern cannot be achieved until that pattern has
been in existence sufficiently long to permit of much experimentation
with the various possibilities it offers. Private wealth has been extra-
ordinarily lavish in its patronage but not always wise. Governments are
just beginning to concern themselves with the encouragement of the
arts. The school may well grow into an effective agency for the develop-
ment on a nationwide basis of an elementary consciousness of beauty,
and a more general understanding of the place of art in industry and
commerce may prove to have great potentialities.
III. AMELIORATIVE INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT
Society has three problems which have existed throughout all history
— poverty, disease and crime. In addition there are many other distressing
conditions which the inequalities of life occasion, such as ignorance,
physical defects, biological inadequacies, neuroses, alcoholism, family
desertion and unprotected children. The amelioration of these conditions
is a major objective involving the techniques of modern social science and
public welfare. The larger but longer task is prevention and the building
of a more effective social structure.
Public Welfare and Social Work. — Much ameliorative effort in the
United States has been concentrated in social work and public welfare,
the extension of social work under governmental auspices. Other agencies,
however, share in these activities. Many of the services now rendered by
social workers were once the responsibility of the family. The family still
gives some degree of protection to its members, but much social work is
occasioned by the failures of families to meet these needs. The church
has often stepped in where the family was inadequate, and has maintained
orphanages, hospitals, homes for the aged, and the like. The local govern-
ment too has always had its provision for relief out of local taxes but
private effort was for generations unorganized; beggars sought aid where
they could and the rich acted as the spirit moved.
In the present century the growth of the services of social work has
proceeded through social inventiveness to new standards transcending
earlier conceptions. Governments have been extending their functions
into these fields. More than two-thirds of the states have reorganized
state boards or departments into state systems of public welfare, dealing
f liv 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
with child welfare, widowed mothers, the poor, the aged and infirm, the
physically handicapped and the subnormal. This work requires the
newly developed efficiency in public administration and the recent tech-
nical advances of professional social work.
How far public welfare activities will extend depends in part upon the
conception of the state and upon the tax situations. The trend has been
toward the transfer of private social work to governmental auspices,
especially during the present depression. The further growth of public
welfare activities is to be expected, particularly because of the range of
problems which are dealt with in other countries through social insurance.
The changes are fundamental and will require the maintenance and
further raising of standards by the government and continued
experimentation by private agencies.
Ameliorative efforts will be greatly lessened if poverty is reduced.
Prevention of poverty on a large scale may not seem practicable in the
near future, yet much can undoubtedly be done in that direction. The
guarding of dangerous machinery reduces the number of fatal or disabling
accidents to the worker; increasing progress in fighting preventable sick-
ness and disease reduces the amount of dependency caused by death of
the breadwinner or by loss of earning power resulting from ill health;
the practice of eugenics may lessen the number of indigents; and better
education and training for productive work will have a beneficial effect,
but above all higher wages and more regular employment will cut down
the amount of poverty.
The accidents of life as well as deficiencies and delays in any program
of prevention will continue to afflict many and to leave large numbers
dependent and in distress. For some time in the future we shall undoubt-
edly be faced with the further problem not only of making more adequate
provision for social case work treatment of those in need, treatment
which will have preventive, corrective and relief aspects, but of providing
more adequate relief in general. At the time these lines are written relief
needs are running into the highest figures in our history. Coming after
three winters of unprecedented drafts upon the public and private purse
for unemployment relief the difficulties in the situation are forcing pro-
posals aimed to provide relief on other than an emergency basis — among
others, those which make use of the insurance principle.
Private insurance is now used by many to take care of burial, sickness
and the needs of old age and to provide for dependents left behind at
death. Optional insurance for individuals is purchased widely by those
with adequate means. If wages were higher, larger numbers would un-
doubtedly follow this example. Group insurance is developing more
widely. The most far reaching application of the principle is compulsory
insurance ordained by the states. It is now applied in all but four of the
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
states in compensating for industrial accidents. Beginnings have been
made in this country of insurance against old age and against unemploy-
ment, but no state has yet undertaken to provide compulsory health in-
surance. Mothers' aid laws, now in nearly all states, operate as a form of
state insurance to protect the home.
Social insurance does not remove the cause of dependency, although
it may have an influence in stimulating preventive measures. It aims to
spread the cost of the disabilities of life over a larger part of society and
a longer period of time. The indications are that the United States in
the near future will have to face the problem of providing more certainly
and systematically for these ills which at all times, and particularly in
periods of depression, have come to be a major task of public and private
social work.
Medicine. — The practice of medicine is in a state of transition which
is perhaps analogous to the state of industry during the early period of
mechanization. There is a marked survival of traditional, individualistic
practice, to which many physicians cling as did the early handicraftsmen
seeing their independence and their creative skill threatened by the
machine.
There is a serious dearth of physicians in rural districts, an oversupply
in cities. The field of the physician has grown far too large for any one
man to master, and the necessary equipment is often too elaborate and
expensive, even for the rich doctor. Here the hospital and private clinic
come in to play the part of the factory, furnishing the machinery which
the individual craftsman cannot secure for himself or, indeed, use if he
could, so complicated has it become.
The private clinic represents an effort at cooperation in the inter-
est, not only of efficiency, but also of economy and protection against
the evils of unrestricted competition. Such an effort does not, how-
ever, strike at the deeper lying problems of present day medical
practice, namely the uneven distribution of service and the more uneven
distribution of its costs. Medical organization has not changed as rapidly
as scientific medical research.
To meet these problems organization is needed, of which three types
may be mentioned. One is the growth of private organizations, of which
examples are found in universities and industries, which might be devel-
oped on a community basis. Aid and regulation by the state may be a
feature. Another type is found in the rise of governmental health bureaus,
federal, state, county, and municipal, which apparently without much
deliberate planning have increased the amount and scope of their work.
A third type, compulsory health insurance, has been tried for many
years by European nations. It seems probable that this latter method
will be considered by the American public at some time in the future.
[ Ivi 1
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
Naturally, scrutiny will have to be given to the weaknesses of the Euro-
pean system and the changes which will be needed to be coordinated
with the practice in this country.
The concern of social policy regarding medicine is with the extent
and direction of the development of these different types of organized
medicine. The problem is to make available to the whole people the
results of scientific research and experiment at a reasonable cost.
Crime. — The modern view of crime is that it is not a thing apart,
like cancer; not something which can be isolated and treated as a single
phenomenon by such simple devices as punishment and prison walls.
It is one manifestation of a complex set of forces in society; it is as
complex as the environment which influences it; it is affected by the
transition in business practices and morality; it is related to the gang
life of children ; it is influenced by inventions, notably by the automobile.
The multiplication of laws, the presence of poverty and the overcrowding
of urban areas are parts of its background. While crime is the net resultant
of exceedingly complex forces, it has specific features which can be dealt
with, as has been shown in the series of special reports from the National
Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement.
Whether crime is increasing or not is difficult to determine. Those who
know most about the subject hesitate to say that there has been a
"crime wave," and where it has occurred. The collection at regular
intervals of reliable and comparable statistics of crime and the various
phases of its treatment and control has been sadly neglected in this
country. One step toward dealing with crime is to get reliable information
about its various manifestations. It has been possible, however, by selecting
several states and cities which have fairly reliable statistics of crime to
secure some indications as to trends, particularly since the various series
run somewhat parallel. The index numbers of arrests per capita of adult
population (after the subtraction of those for traffic, automobile law offen-
ses and drunkenness) in 7 selected cities were 80 in 1900, 96 in 1910, 100 in
1920, 139 in 1925 and 110 in 1930. The data seem to show an increase in
crime since the beginning of the century, but hardly a crime wave, if by that
is meant an extraordinary rise in the number of criminal acts committed.
As to the total amount of crime, probably about 16 major offenses are
committed in a year per 1,000 population in the smaller and larger cities.
These are crimes reported to the police, which may not be a complete
list. For the total population the rate would not be so high, since the
very large rural population is not included, and there the rates are
known to be lower.
To a certain extent crime is a creation of the changing regulations of
society and of the attempts to enforce them. The more rules there are to
break the larger is the number broken. Much law breaking arises, for
f Ivii 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
instance, in the attempt to prohibit or regulate gambling, prostitution, or
selling intoxicating beverages. Laws concerning these types of behavior
vary from time to time and from country to country. The number of
criminal laws is increasing. There has been a growth of about 40 percent
in the 30 years from 1900 to 1930 in selected states as measured by sec-
tions in their criminal codes. Society seems to have a penchant for multi-
plying rules. The number of sections in the constitution and by-laws of
the New York Stock Exchange increased 46 percent from 1914 to 1925,
and the North Central Association of Colleges and Universities added 33
percent to the number of sections in its governing standards in the 18
years from 1912 to 1930.
This tendency to make rules and regulations is itself a significant
phase of modern life and it stands out boldly against the pioneer back-
ground of America, where relatively few organizational rules existed or
where they were changed less frequently. Rules multiply through the
translation of customs into written regulations. This formal change is not
the whole story; for it would seem that the process of social change itself
leads to more regulations. New inventions, social or other, call for new
standardizations of behavior in cases where tradition provides little
guidance. Moreover the process of social change probably encourages
rule making. Conformity to new regulations takes time to learn; it is a
part of the complex adjustments to the increasing heterogeneity of soci-
ety. Recent rules usually lack the established character of laws of the past.
There seems little prospect that the task of making new rules, revising
old ones, and enforcing both sets will ever be finished, or that the problem
of dealing with law breakers will grow less important. A society without
crime appears more remote than a society without poverty. The number
of prisoners committed for the more serious offenses has increased steadily
in proportion to the population. Even though this may in part mean
merely greater efficiency in apprehending and convicting offenders, we
are in no position to say that the number of these more serious crimes
is decreasing. Fines, however, are more predominant among the penalties
inflicted. In Massachusetts they increased from 67 percent in 1910 to
87 percent in 1930.
Organized crime is a very serious phase of this general issue. Criminals
who operate in significant numbers and repeat their acts organize for
the purpose. Crime is in a way their business. Thus law breakers in other
respects have taken over the "business" of bootlegging, gambling and
prostitution, as well as robbery, kidnaping and blackmail and other
crimes for profit. One can understand how illegal distilling of liquor in
mountains, or how piracy on the high seas flourishes in isolation; but
how illegal business can be carried on extensively in the heart of a
city is less obvious. One explanation is that the organized gangs of
[ Iviii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
criminals avoid contact with the law when possible, but where contact
is unavoidable they seek to control the agencies of the law. The methods
of organized crime are sometimes modeled after effective business
techniques, in combination with many of the worst criminal practices.
Racketeering, an especially insidious form of organized crime for profit,
has grown up in many cities since the war. This attempt to control prices
by violence instead of by business pressure levies a heavy tribute on the
consumer and on the business activity concerned; and this appearance of
the criminal in a dominating role over small business enterprise is a
serious menace. Organized crime in general, however, is by no means a
new or post-war phenomenon, although it has grown to unprecedented
dimensions since the enactment of the Eighteenth Amendment. Boot-
legging has put large funds in the hands of criminals.
The problem of the treatment of the prisoner is significant not only
as a measure for protection but also for prevention. The most fruitful
approach to this problem of treatment for those who have been convicted
is not from the point of view of punishment, but from that of segregation
according to the types of psychological defects or deviations of the pris-
oners, or according to the types of their social experiences, with a view
to further diagnosis of their delinquent tendencies and the provision of
care aimed to refit those who are not hardened and hopeless criminals
to become safe and self-supporting members of society. The development
of a policy in accordance with this view means many radical changes in
prison procedure.
Another fruitful and even more important attack is that of pre-
vention, especially for those who pursue crime as a business. A program
of prevention is necessarily wide in scope and can not be limited to
police, courts, and prisons. It touches politics, elections, business ethics,
legislation, gang life among youths, rearing of children, playgrounds,
housing, the disorganized dwelling areas of cities, medical service and
mental hygiene. Indeed almost the whole structure of society is involved.
Basic Governmental Problems. — Government has come to perform
many functions for social welfare through public welfare departments,
but these, of course, are only a small part of its activities. As the one
sovereign organization government is or may be concerned with the
problems of men at all levels.
Problems of governmental reorganization and functioning constitute
a major question of adaptation and adjustment. It cannot be supposed
that the present procedures will be able to deal effectively with the compli-
cated types of problems certain to arise in the future, indeed already upon
us. Specifically the problems of government turn about the reorganization
of areas, mechanisms, and authority; the recruitment of the necessary
personnel for administration and leadership; adaptation of the techniques
[ Hx 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
developed through the social sciences; the elimination of spoils and graft;
the determination of the scope of governmental activity in the fields of
general welfare, social control, and moralistic supervision of behavior;
the determination of the amount of governmental expenditure in relation
to national income, and the ways and means of financing the govern-
ment's operations; the position of the national government in its relations
with other members of the family of nations; the development of liberty,
equality and democracy, in the face of the concentration of great wealth
in the hands of a few. Of major importance are the relations of govern-
ment to industry.
Overshadowing all these problems is the final question as to how to
develop a governmental mechanism which will serve the interests and
ideals developing through the recent social changes indicated in this
report, how to adapt the best in the American tradition to the changing
forms of modern life.
Growth of Governmental Functions. — Governments in general have
been increasing in size and power. The only other great social organiza-
tions to compare with them in rates of growth are our economic institu-
tions. This growth seems to have occurred despite conflicting views
as to what the functions of government should be. Some would restrict
them to the minimum of agencies of protection, and resent any extension
beyond the bare necessities of control and regulation. Others see govern-
ment as a powerful organization which may be placed in the service of
mankind in many different ways. The variety of governmental func-
tions is amazing, when all types of government are considered, as is
shown in several of the chapters which follow. Much of this extension
has been through various administrative boards, which have been added
from time to time and which eventually present a problem of coordina-
tion. Not many of these bureaus are discarded, although some, notably
those of war time, have been dropped. The rate of obsolescence is greater
for legislative enactments. Such an extension of the administrative side
of government is probably one of the reasons for the enhanced power of
executives and the administrative branches of the government.
In this field the most disquieting developments have been those of the
intrusion of the graft system in the domain of the federal government,
especially in the form of bootlegging, but also touching the Cabinet in the
Teapot Dome case; and the rise of racketeering in certain urban com-
munities. On the other hand notable progress has been made in many
directions toward the strengthening of the public service in cities, states,
and nation.
Evidences of this have been the development of a more powerful
executive, both in leadership and in management, the rise of administra-
tive boards with wide powers, the tendency toward consolidation of
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
administrative power on all levels of authority, the efficiency movement
in the direction of professionalization of the service, the use of modern
practices in dealing with the problems of personnel management and
governmental operations and the growth of organizations of administra-
tive officials throughout the country.
At the same time large ranges of government have been dominated
by avowed spoilsmen, corrupt, incompetent and partisan, or all three
together, while graft and buncombe have been common; but on the
whole notable advance has been made in the direction of increasing com-
petence and integrity in governmental service, notably in fields like
educational administration, recreation, health, and welfare, special
phases of urban, state and national administration. Even in less promising
fields such as police administration the beginnings of substantial and
even surprising progress have been made in various localities.
The broad question of the relation of the democracy to the expert
in administration has not been solved, but in recent years surprising
advances have been made toward the establishment of more satisfactory
relations. Whereas in the period 1830-1870 the spoils idea was universally
accepted and even acclaimed, and whereas in the period 1870-1900 the
principle of merit as against party service and of continuity in tenure
was recognized, in the period covered by this study the expert has been
recognized because of his utility and indispensability in the practical
operations of the government. While expertness and administrative skill
were by no means universally recognized and adopted, the new trend was
strongly in this direction, and the indications are that this movement
will continue with increasing momentum.
Relations of Government to Business. — The increasing complexity
and interdependence of social life precipitate more sharply than ever the
problem of the interrelations between industrial and political forms of
organization and control, and this has been accentuated by the rise
of large scale industrial units resembling in form while rivaling in
magnitude some of the governmental units to which they are technically
subordinate.
Unemployment, industrial instability, tariffs, currency and banking,
international loans, markets and shipping, agricultural distress, the
protection of labor, have raised many vital questions respecting the
relationship of government and business, and it is easy to foresee that
many others will be raised in the future. Demands are now being made
for more effective control over banking, investment trusts, holding com-
panies, stock speculation, electric power industries, railroads, chain
stores, and many other activities. The new forms of corporate structure
raise many problems of legal control for the protection of the minority
interests, and of the community itself. The service functions of govern-
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ment are also likely to expand because of the demands of the special
economic groups. The poverty of the marginal and submarginal farmers,
the insecurity of the wage earners in industry, the perplexity of the
consumers, the plight of the railroads, are likely to call for, indeed have
already demanded the close cooperation of the government. Unemploy-
ment and industrial instability are of special urgency in their demands for
governmental assistance, first of all in times of emergency, but also in
preventing the recurrence of disastrous crises or in minimizing their rude
shocks and ghastly losses.
Under such circumstances the problem of the interrelationship
between government and industry is of grave importance. Shall business
men become actual rulers; or shall rulers become industrialists; or shall
labor and science rule the older rulers? Practically, the line between so-
called "pure" economics and "pure" politics has been blurred in recent
years by the events of the late war, and later by the stress of the economic
depression. In each of these crises the ancient landmarks between busi-
ness and government have been disregarded and new social boundaries
have been accepted by acclamation. The actual question is that of
developing quasi-governmental agencies and quasi-industrial agencies on
the borders of the older economic and governmental enterprises, and of
the freer intermingling of organization and personnel, along with the
recognition of their interdependence in many relations.
Observers of social change may look here for the appearance of new
types of politico-economic organization, new constellations of govern-
ment, industry and technology, forms now only dimly discerned; the
quasi-governmental corporation, the government owned corporation,
the mixed corporation, the semi- and demi-autonomous industrial
groupings in varying relations to the state. We may look for important
developments alike in the concentration and in the devolution of social
control, experiments perhaps in the direction of the self-government of
various industries under central guidance, experiments in cooperation
and accommodation between industry and government, especially as
the larger units of industrial organization, cooperative and otherwise,
become more like governments in personnel and budgets, and as govern-
ments become agencies of general welfare as well as of coercion.
The hybrid nature of some of these creations may be the despair
of those theorists, both radical and conservative, who see the world only
in terms of an unquestioning acceptance of one or the other of two exclu-
sive dogmas, but these innovations will be welcomed by those who are less
concerned about phobias than with the prompt and practical adjustment
of actual affairs to the brutal realities of changing social and economic
conditions. The American outcome, since all the possible molds of thought
and invention have not yet been exhausted, may be a type sui generis,
I Ixii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
adapted to the special needs, opportunities, limitations and genius of the
American people.
Those who reason in terms of isms or of the theoretical Tightness
or wrongness of state activity may be profoundly perplexed by the
range of governmental expansion or contraction, but the student of
social trends observes nothing alarming in the widely varying forms of
social adjustment undertaken by government, whether maternal,
paternal, or fraternal from one period to another.
The Costs of Government. — Few governmental functions are self-
supporting; most are paid for by the taxpayer. The question of the costs
therefore is fundamental, particularly in the present depression when it is
very difficult to pay the money with which to run the government. No
one is in the mood for thinking of the growth of governmental functions
when taxes are such a burden and when the costs of government continue
on almost the same plane as before the depression. In a business de-
pression, the costs of government remain high while the incomes of
citizens fall and a larger percentage of income must be contributed
to the government. This has been the case in all recent severe business
depressions and the complaint of the taxpayer has always been loud
on these occasions.
This problem has never been solved. It is very difficult to cut down the
total expenses of government as will be seen later from the nature of
the payments. Business adjusts more quickly to the business cycle than
does agriculture, and perhaps both more quickly than governments.
Yet something can doubtless be done toward adjusting government
finances to the exigencies created by business cycles. The tax bill of all
the governments in the country in 1930 was ten and a quarter billion
dollars, perhaps 15 percent of the incomes of the people. Of course, the
crucial question is what do we get for our money. We spend about the
same amount of money or more on recreation, approximately one-seventh
as much on tobacco, and perhaps about one-fifteenth as much on cos-
metics. How this money paid to run the government is spent is seen in the
chapters on government and taxation. No doubt there is waste, but
attempts to cut down have recently led in hundreds of counties and cities
to closing the schools for a time and also to cutting down normal relief,
such as mothers' pensions, just when it is most needed. The problem of the
extension of the functions of government is then in part a problem of
paying for them, which leads inevitably to the question of how this burden
shall be distributed among the citizens.
The tax burden was only 6.6 percent of the national income in 1913,
or about one-half the proportion it was in 1930. How has this increase
come about? One-fourth of it was due to the war; one-fifth of the increase
went to education; about one-sixth was for good roads and about one-
[ Ixiii 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
seventh was for the various services of the municipalities, which are
peculiar to great aggregations of people living in localities of high
density. It is an interesting question what, if any, of these expendi-
tures which doubled the tax burden we should have been willing to
forego. The problem of the amount of taxes is the problem of what
we want to spend our money for. The percentage of waste that can be
eliminated, as the percentage of increase in efficiency, has not been
measured.
The question of who pays the tax ranks with the question of how
much tax should be paid. Even when some such principle as payment
according to ability is adopted, the measure of ability remains to be
determined, as well as the problem of administering the tax. The most
noteworthy trend has been the rise of the income tax from 37 million
dollars in 1913 to 2,700 million dollars in 1930, and of the inheritance and
estate taxes from 26 million to 250 million, the rise of the gasoline tax and
decline of the liquor tax. The general property tax still continues to yield
nearly 50 per cent of the taxes raised, despite its almost universal condem-
nation as a tax once adapted to our rural life but which has survived into
an era to which it is ill fitted. No doubt the struggle over who shall pay
what proportion of the tax will be raised anew in every fiscal crisis of the
future. If the government's functions should grow very large, this issue
will become one of almost overshadowing importance.
Large possibilities of economy are found in the elimination of dupli-
cating or outgrown units and agencies of government, in the adoption
of sounder practices in purchasing and other governmental procedures,
in the abolition of the graft and spoils system, in the better organization
of personnel, and in general in the establishment of efficient public
administration. These roads to economy are well understood and may
readily be used whenever the will to do so is sufficiently developed.
It must be recognized, however, that there are many fixed charges which
are not readily reducible and contractual payments which must be
met, and that extraordinary expenditures are necessitated in periods of
grave unemployment. Less readily measurable, but equally important
savings may be made for the community in such items as the reduction
of the law's delay in the administration of civil justice, in the preven-
tion of criminality and racketeering, in sounder policies of dealing
with the defective and the delinquent, and still more broadly in larger
planning and keener foresight in dealing with the terrible losses arising
from the tragic tension of war and economic depression, with their heavy
burdens on the taxpayer. In this range of opportunities material econ-
omies may be made without crippling essential public services, and
without overburdening the community from which governmental contri-
butions must come.
[ Ixiv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
Representation. — The question of who pays the taxes leads naturally
to the question, whom does the government represent. The theory of
democracy is that the people own the government, but practice does not
always follow theory. The provisions for representation were worked out
long ago when distances were great and there were marked variations by
locality and region. Now localities are marked rather by differences
among their many groups and distances are short. Occupations are
extremely varied; wealth is very unequally distributed; during all these
changes the pattern of representation has remained the same. This
lag has been partly compensated by the development of quick means
of determining public opinion and by the propaganda activities of these
highly organized groups. The slight decline in the percentages voting
and the apparent increase in activities of pressure groups suggests a
changing nature of representation. The problem of representation is the
question of special interests in relation to general control — the very
difficulty which gave birth to the modern representative government.
This problem of representation of interests is seen in extreme form in the
monarchies of the past and in the communistic state of today. It will
also be a problem in the approaching closer relationships of business
and government.
Laws. — The government is also the supreme law-making body of
society, although rules of conduct are set forth by many other social
agencies. New inventions like the radio, the airplane and the automobile
call for laws as do new social conditions, such as child labor in factories,
chain stores or trusts. Laws in general lag. No doubt unwise laws are
passed, but in cases where the laws which have been passed are admittedly
wise, the delay and effort to bring them to passage have been great, as in
the case of child labor legislation. After legislation has been passed it must
be interpreted in the light of the Constitution and given judicial review
where the social philosophies of judges become a factor in determining
legality. On the one hand is the problem of safeguarding the body of
the law; on the other is the problem of bringing laws up to date with
changing social conditions. The conflict is fundamental. By very defini-
tion a rule must be definite and reasonably fixed, otherwise it offers no
satisfactory guidance. Yet these rules should be changed sufficiently
often to meet the new situations in a changing society. Laws tend to
appeal to the authority of the past but in a period of great change that
authority may not offer any specific guidance.
The problem of advancement of the judicial administration remains
pressing. The necessary flexibility in our legal system in order to supply
the needs of a changing society is dependent on personnel and the training
and philosophies of that personnel. The lower forms of collusion between
the courts and crime, the intermediate types of job brokerage in judge-
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ships and the more refined manifestations of judicial remissness are a
challenge to our constructive statesmanship and at times an occasion
of profound despair. Selection of enlightened and liberal judges is one
effective approach. The awakening sense of responsibility on the part
of the bar, the organizations of judicial councils and the broader social
philosophy of the courts are indications of change. Modern legal education
and socio-legal research are a leavening influence working toward the
greatly desired adaptability.
Some of the problems of jurisprudence mentioned above are being
worked out by the extension of another social invention, the administra-
tive tribunal, which often combines administrative, legislative and
judicial functions in one body. Thus a health board adopts rules, renders
decisions and carries out orders. Administrative tribunals have had a
remarkable development within the 20th century and are an adaptation
to the changing conditions. Their success argues for their further develop-
ment, but they offer a solution for only a phase of the lag of the law.
The immediate problem may be stated broadly as that of adapting
an antiquated judicial system to rapidly changing urban industrial
conditions, to new concepts and practices in the world of business and
labor. A wide range of questions in the field of judicial organization,
procedure and public relations must be covered along with the develop-
ment of scientific methods and the adoption of a broader social spirit.
It may be anticipated that the vigorous protests of leaders of the
bar will be heeded in the next period of our growth, and that the spirit
and procedure of the judicial branch of our political system will undergo
changes of a substantial and helpful nature. In this the quickened spirit
of responsibility on the part of the bar and of the judges is likely to play
an important role, while the scientific spirit now beginning to assert
itself in centers of legal training and research will be widely influential.
Changes in the Structure of Government. — The authority of govern-
ment in the United States has traditionally been weakened by the division
of powers between the national government and the states, between
states and localities, and further by the three-fold division of powers
between legislature, executive and judiciary.
The first of these divisions was shattered by the events of the Civil
War and has been progressively modified since that time, never more
actively than during recent years. There is reason to anticipate the
progressive development of centralization in the face of the rise of inter-
state commerce under modern economic conditions, the increasing impor-
tance of foreign trade, finance and diplomacy, and the sweeping changes
in modes of communication.
At the same time centralization in state government is growing,
especially with respect to rural governments, and bids fair to advance
[ Ixvi ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
still farther. So rapidly is this movement progressing that the preserva-
tion of an adequate degree of local self-government is a matter of great
concern, and one of the large problems of the future is the determination
of the desirable primary unit of government.
In the meantime a new competitor for power has arisen in the form of
the metropolitan region, which now looms large both in numbers and in
wealth. Ninety-six such regions contain nearly half of the population of the
United States and show rates of growth far above that of other sections
of the country. This trend if projected for another generation would place
the center of political power in the larger cities. In view of the present
economic situation, there is some question whether this trend will be as
strongly marked in the near future, but in any case the upward thrust of
the urban center is one of the most striking features of the period under
consideration, and gives rise to innumerable problems of politics and
government. How shall the new metropolitan complex be drawn together
in some less chaotic form of governmental framework including the city
and its satellites, especially when they spread over more than one county
or state; what shall be their relation to the state and national govern-
ments; what shall be the principle of distribution of taxation and political
authority; shall the cities be given home rule, or strictly regulated by
states, or set up as independent commonwealths as has been suggested in
recent years; or shall some other method be found as a result of the present,
day groping toward a way out of an admittedly impossible situation ?
Broadly speaking, notable advances have been made in the govern-
ment of urban communities during the period just past, where indeed
both the brightest and the darkest spots in American public life were
evident. If freebooting has been highly organized in some cities, there has
also been an impressive development of organized efficiency. The atten-
tion given to public administration under the influence of such move-
ments as the city manager plan has not been surpassed anywhere in our
governmental system and gives promise of important advance.
Rural government, while less spectacularly corrupt, has been in many
cases incompetent, especially under the disrupting influence of the new
distribution of wealth and population and the new methods of transporta-
tion. At the end of this period, however, there has appeared intense in-
terest in the reorganization of these outworn units and the reconstruction
of new types of rural or rural-urban government, with striking experi-
ments in rebuilding and strong prospects for an advance which ten years
ago would have been regarded as Utopian. Transfer of functions, consoli-
dation, coordination and creation of new units are methods already under
way in the effort to establish a more practical form of local government.
The power to act within the three-fold separation of governmental
authorities likewise shows the emergence of centralized power, and the
f Ixvii 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
forecast indicates still further development toward the central focus of
authority.
The executive has gained in prestige and power in the national and
state governments, and in some cities where the power of the mayor has
been expanded. Increased veto power, larger appointing power, facility
in popular appeal, and growth of administrative functions have all
tended to exalt the position of the executive. The familiarity of the
public with the "strong man" with large authority in business and social
relations has also helped in this movement.
The almost omnipotent legislative authority set up at the outset of
our national development has steadily lost to the courts on the one side
and the executive on the other; and this process has gone on more rapidly
than ever during recent years. The only exception of note is the rise of the
city council in the city manager cities and the board in school affairs.
Yet the maxim, "It is the function of many to deliberate and of one to
act," contains the essence of much past experience and wisdom of govern-
ment, under a variety of different systems, and it seems probable that
representative bodies will occupy places of power and distinction in the
organization of society, under any development of executive power or
administrative authority.
Democracy. — Our country is cited as the great exemplar of democ-
racy. Do the changing social conditions make the adaptation of democ-
racy a problem ? We note lines, which if projected into the future would
lead in opposite directions, one away from democratic control and the
other toward a more perfect realization of its principles.
From one point of view our observations show great cities from time
to time in the grip of organized and defiant criminals, rural districts often
forlornly governed, masses of persons losing confidence in the ballot and
elections, and regarding liberty, equality, and democracy as mocking
catchwords twisted into legalistic defenses of special interests. The swift
concentration of vast economic power in a period of mergers, and the
inability of the government to regulate or control these combinations, or
in many cases to resist their corrupting influences, are not encouraging in
their sinister implications ; the organized labor movement seems declining
in numbers and vigor. The difficulty of providing a steady stream of high
competence in political leadership and administration has contributed to
the difficulty of our problem, while the expensive control of masses
of people through the arts of organized publicity and propaganda presents
its dubious aspects to the observer of democratic trends. Many have been
led to conclude reluctantly that the emergence of some recognized and
avowed form of plutocratic dictatorship is not far away.
But in considering the movement of American democracy and its
collective competence, it is important not to lose sight of specific and basic
[ Ixviii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
tendencies revealed in this report and bearing directly on the future of
our institutions.
One of these is the habituation of the American people to large scale
organization and planning in industry, keenly appreciated by the Soviets ;
another is the American tendency to make relatively prompt use of the
latest fashions in science and technology; the lack of sharply defined and
permanent classes or castes obstructing either economic or governmental
change, and finally, the wide prevalence of democratic attitudes and
practices in social life.
Our experts show in great detail the wholly unparalleled democratiza-
tion of education in recent years; the unexampled democratization of
forms of transportation, long an index of aristocracy; the democratization
of recreation through the moving pictures, the radio, the park systems;
the democratization and standardization of dress and fashion, often
obliterating long standing marks of class. If we care to look upon democ-
racy as a way of life, these fundamental facts are to be considered along with
the corruption and ineffectiveness of much of our governmental machinery.
An interpretation which seems to have a margin of advantage is
that of the prospect of a continuance of the democratic regime, with
higher standards of achievement, with a more highly unified and stronger
government, with sounder types of civic training, with a broader social
program and a sharper edged purpose to diffuse more promptly and
widely the gains of our civilization, with control over social and economic
forces better adapted to the special social tensions of the time, with
less lag between social change and governmental adaptation and with
more pre-vision and contriving spirit.
Relations with Other Nations. — Recent trends show the United States
alternating between isolation and independence, between sharply marked
economic nationalism and notable international initiative in cooperation,
moving in a highly unstable and zigzag course. Immigration restrictions
and high tariffs on the one hand, and a World Court, a League of Nations,
and outlawry of war on the other. Some signs point in the direction of
independence and imperialism of a new Roman type, reaching out
aggressively for more land or wider markets under political auspices;
others toward amiable cooperation in the most highly developed forms of
world order. It is not unreasonable to anticipate that these opposing
trends will continue to alternate sharply in their control over American
policy. In any case there can be little doubt that the trend will be in the
future as in recent years in the direction of more intimate relations
through developing modes of intercommunication and through economic
interchange and on the whole toward an increasing number of inter-
national contacts; and this, whether the future pattern of action is
predominantly imperialistic or cooperative in form and spirit.
[ Ixix ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Whether the United States is growing more or less militaristic must
also be judged in the dubious light of conflicting theories and conduct.
Traditionally insisting upon the supremacy of the civil over the military
power, we have held to that doctrine and have played an important part
in all movements for the curbing or abolition of war, including participa-
tion in a "war to end war/* On the other hand, our interest in foreign
markets and loans has greatly increased, and the need of a strong hand in
economic diplomacy has been emphasized. Our military and naval
establishments have grown, and systems of military training have been
expanded. Our soldiers have fought in Asia, Europe and Latin America.
Powerful propagandas both for militarism and pacifism have been set in
motion, and their clashes have been frequent but inconclusive. The
outlawry of war and the strong war establishment have doubtless been
accommodated by many minds as a practical version of Theodore Roose-
velt's dictum to "speak softly and carry a big stick." The trends in short
are conflicting and confusing, with the problems of war remaining as
imminent and as grave as in the past.
Part 4. — POLICY AND PROBLEMS
A Formal Summary of Principles. — What we conceive to be the major
problems revealed by our studies of social trends have now been passed
in review. By way of summary, a list of these problems in the order of
their social importance may be expected. But to draw up such a list
requires agreement upon some criterion of social importance, as well as
sharp definitions of problems which assume varying forms and meanings
as they are viewed from different angles. A summary perhaps more
serviceable to future thinking, although less directive of immediate
action, can be provided by pointing out in abstract form the general
characteristics which social problems have in common.
The fundamental principles are that social problems are products of
change, and that social changes are interrelated. Hence, a change in one
part of the social structure will affect other parts connected with it. But
the effects do not always follow immediately — an induced change may
lag years behind the original precipitating change. These varying delays
among correlated changes often mean maladjustment. They may arise
from vested interests resisting change in self-defense, from the difficulty
with which men readjust familiar ideas or ideals, or from various obstacles
which obstruct the transmission of impulses from man to man. These
interrelated changes which are going forward in such bewildering variety
and at such varying speeds threaten grave dangers with one hand, while
with the other hand they hold out the promise of further betterment to
mankind. The objective of any conscious control over the process is to
secure a better adjustment between inherited nature and culture. The
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
means of social control is social discovery and the wider adoption of new
knowledge.
The Need for Social Thinking. — On the principles just stated in bald
form it is inevitable that the descriptions of social trends in the following
chapters run forward to the series of questions raised but not answered
in this summary review of results. If that were not the case, the descrip-
tions would fall lamentably short of thoroughness. The Committee is in
the same position as its collaborators. In formulating this general sketch
of the complicated social trends which are remoulding American life, it
finds its analytic description leading ever and again to a statement of
problems which can be solved only by further scientific discoveries and
practical inventions.
To make the discoveries which are called for, to design, perfect and
apply the inventions is a task which would be far beyond the powers of
the Committee and its collaborators, even if we had not been excused in
advance from making such an effort. If one considers the enormous
mass of detailed work required to achieve the recent decline in American
death rates, or to make aviation possible, or to increase per capita produc-
tion in farming, one realizes that the job of solving the social problems here
outlined is a job for cumulative thinking by many minds over years to come.
Discovery and invention are themselves social processes made up of count-
less individual achievements. Nothing short of the combined intelligence
of the nation can cope with the predicaments here mentioned. Nor would
a magnificent effort which successfully solved all the problems pending
today suffice — if such an effort can be imagined. For, if we are right in
our conception of the character of cultural trends, the successful solutions
would take the form of inventions which would alter our ways of doing
things, and thereby produce new difficulties of endless variety. Then a
fresh series of efforts to invent solutions for social problems would be needed.
Implementing Public Policy. — In beginning this report, the Com-
mittee stated that the major emerging problem is that of closer coordina-
tion and more effective integration of the swiftly changing elements in
American social life. What are the prerequisites of a successful, long time
constructive integration of social effort?
Indispensable among these are the following:
Willingness and determination to undertake important integral
changes in the reorganization of social life, including the economic and
the political orders, rather than the pursuance of a policy of drift.
Recognition of the role which science must play in such a reorganiza-
tion of life.
Continuing recognition of the intimate interrelationship between
changing scientific techniques, varying social interests and institutions,
modes of social education and action and broad social purposes.
[ Ixxi ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Specific ways and means of procedure for continuing research and
for the formulation of concrete policies as well as for the successful
administration of the lines of action indicated.
If we look at the ways in which the continuing integration of social
intelligence may advance, there are many roads leading forward.
1. We may reasonably anticipate a considerable body of constructive
social thinking in the near future developing in the minds of individual
students of social problems, pioneers in social discovery or statesmen in
social science. More widely in the future than in the immediate past
we may expect the growth of thinking about the meaning of the great
masses of social data which we have become so expert and generous
in assembling. Is it possible that there is radical inconsistency between
the industrious and precise collection of material and the effort to inter-
pret and utilize what has been found out? Or the contrary, is there a
compelling urgency that they be brought together both for the sake of
science and of society? We may look for important contributions from
individual thinkers with a point of view from which the focusing of social
problems and their constructive integration is not excluded, but empha-
sized. Some of these efforts may be widely divergent in conclusions from
others, but they should have in common the interrelation of social prob-
lems in closer meshed patterns than heretofore. It is also to be anticipated
that the initiative in a wide variety of emerging problems will be assumed
by research centers, groups, bureaus, institutes and foundations, devoted
in some instances to more specialized and in other to more general treat-
ment of social data. A considerable amount of such work is now being
done in universities and independent research institutes, and the results
are seen in the increasing penetration of social technology into public
welfare work, public health, education, social work and the courts. While
some of these inquiries may be fragmentary and often unrelated or in-
adequately related, there should nevertheless be important findings and
inventions of great value to society. It might be said, indeed, that
while the most recent phase of American development in the social field
has been the recognition of the necessity of fact finding agencies and
equipment, and their actual establishment, the next phase of advance
may find more emphasis upon interpretation and synthesis than the
last.
2. Nor can we fail to observe the interest of government itself,
national, state and local alike, in the technical problems of social research
and of prevision and planning. A very large amount of planning has
already been undertaken, notably by cities and by the federal govern-
ment, and to a less extent by states and counties. There is reason to
anticipate that this form of organization of social intelligence and policy
will develop in the future with the increasing complexity of social life
[ Ixxii ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
and the realization of the significance of social interrelationship. The
monumental work of the census alone is an adequate indication of the in-
terest of the organized government in the collection of social data, and
there are many other illustrations of the deep concern of the government
with the data upon which national policies should rest. The fact-finding
work of the executive branch of the government has often been more sys-
tematically directed than that of the legislators and the courts, but there
are striking examples of the utility of inquiries in all divisions and on all
levels of government, in legislative inquiries (especially the interim in-
quiries) and in judicial proceedings as well as in the undertakings of the
more recently developed judicial councils. It is not beyond the bounds of
possibility that in dealing with some forms of problems, joint inquiry
instituted under the auspices of two or more departments of government
might prove to be an effective procedure, in that partisanship and pro-
prietorship in findings would to some extent be minimized.
3. The Social Science Research Council, representative of seven
scientific societies, and devoted to the consideration of research in the
social field, may prove an instrumentality of great value in the broader
view of the complex social problems, in the integration of social knowl-
edge, in the initiative toward social planning on a high level. Important
advances have already been made in agricultural research, in industrial
and international relations, and striking possibilities lie ahead in the
direction of linking together social problems likely otherwise to be left
unrelated.
It is within the bounds of possibility that this Council might care
to take the initiative in setting up other machinery for the consideration
of ad hoc problems, and for more and continuous generalized considera-
tion of broader aspects of social integration and planning. It would
further be possible for this Council to organize sponsoring groups in
which there might be brought together the technical fact finding, the
interpretation of data in a broader sense, and the practical judgment of
those holding the reins of authority in government, industry and society.
4. Out of these methods of approach it is not impossible that there
might in time emerge a National Advisory Council, including scientific,
educational, governmental, economic (industrial, agricultural and labor)
points of contact, or other appropriate elements, able to contribute to the
consideration of the basic social problems of the nation. Such an agency
might consider some fundamental questions of the social order, economic,
governmental, educational, technical, cultural, always in their inter-
relation, and in the light of the trends and possibilities of modern science.
In any case, and whatever the approach, it is clear that the type of
planning now most urgently required is neither economic planning alone,
nor governmental planning alone. The new synthesis must include the
[ Ixxiii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
scientific, the educational, as well as the economic (including here the in-
dustrial and the agricultural) and also the governmental. All these factors
are inextricably intertwined in modern life, and it is impossible to make
rapid progress under present conditions without drawing them all together.
The Committee does not wish to exaggerate the role of intelligence
in social direction, or to underestimate the important parts played by
tradition, habit, unintelligence, inertia, indifference, emotions or the raw
will to power in various forms. These obvious factors cannot escape
observation, and at times they leave only a hopeless resignation to drift
with fate. Social action, however, is the resultant of many forces among
which in an age of science and education, conscious intelligence may
certainly be reckoned as one.
Furthermore, it is important not to overstate the aspect either of
integration or cencentration in control, or of governmentalism. The unity
here presented as essential to rounded social development may be
achieved partly within and through the government and partly within
other institutions and through other than governmental agencies. In some
phases of behavior there are very intimate relationships between science,
education, government, industry and culture; and in others the connec-
tion may be farther in the background. Some of the centers of integration
may be local, others may be national, and still others international in
their point of reference. What is here outlined is a way of approach
to social problems, with the emphasis on a method rather than on a set
of mechanisms. More important than any special type of institution
is the attainment of a situation in which economic, governmental, moral
and cultural arrangements should not lag too far behind the advance of
basic changes.
The alternative to constructive social initiative may conceivably
be a prolongation of a policy of drift and some readjustment as time
goes on. More definite alternatives, however, are urged by dictatorial
systems in which the factors of force and violence may loom large. In such
cases the basic decisions are frankly imposed by power groups, and
violence may subordinate technical intelligence in social guidance.
Unless there can be a more impressive integration of social skills and
fusing of social purposes than is revealed by recent trends, there can
be no assurance that these alternatives with their accompaniments
of violent revolution, dark periods of serious repression of libertarian
and democratic forms, the proscription and loss of many useful elements
in the present productive system, can be averted.
Fully realizing its mission, the Committee does not wish to assume an
attitude of alarmist irresponsibility, but on the other hand it would be
highly negligent to gloss over the stark and bitter realities of the social
situation, and to ignore the imminent perils in further advance of our
[ Ixxiv ]
COMMITTEE FINDINGS
heavy technical machinery over crumbling roads and shaking bridges.
There are times when silence is not neutrality, but assent.
Finally, the Committee is not unmindful of the fact that there are
important elements in human life not easily stated in terms of efficiency,
mechanization, institutions, rates of change or adaptations to change.
The immense structure of human culture exists to serve human needs
and values not always readily measurable, to promote and expand human
happiness, to enable men to live more richly and abundantly. It is a
means, not an end in itself. Men cling to ideas, ideals, institutions, blindly
perhaps even when outworn, waiting until they are modified and given
a new meaning and a new mode of expression more adequate to the
realization of the cherished human values. The new tools and the new
technique are not readily accepted; they are indeed suspected and
resisted until they are reset in a framework of ideas, of emotional and
personality values as attractive as those which they replace. So the family,
religion, the economic order, the political system, resist the process of
change, holding to the older and more familiar symbols, vibrant with
the intimacy of life's experience and tenaciously interwoven with the
innermost impulses of human action.
The clarification of human values and their reformulation in order to
give expression to them in terms of today's life and opportunities is a
major task of social thinking. The progressive confusion created in
men's minds by the bewildering sweep of events revealed in our recent
social trends must find its counterpart in the progressive clarification
of men's thinking and feeling, in their reorientation to the meaning of
the new trends.
In the formulation of these new and emergent values, in the construc-
tion of the new symbols to thrill men's souls, in the contrivance of the new
institutions and adaptations useful in the fulfillment of the new aspira-
tions, we trust that this review of recent social trends may prove of value
to the American public. We were not commissioned to lead the people
into some new land of promise, but to retrace our recent wanderings, to
indicate and interpret our ways and rates of change, to provide maps of
progress, make observations of danger zones, point out hopeful roads
of advance, helpful in finding a more intelligent course in the next phase
of our progress. Our information has been laboriously gathered, our
interpretations made with every effort toward accuracy and impartiality,
our forecasts tentative and alternative rather than dogmatic in form and
spirit, and we trust that our endeavors may contribute to the readier
growth of the new ideals, ideas and emotional values of the next
period, as well as the mechanisms, institutions, skills, techniques and
ways of life through which these values will be expressed and fulfilled
in the years that are to come.
[ Ixxv ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
THE President's Research Committee on Social Trends is indebted
to President Herbert Hoover for the inception of the idea of a com-
prehensive survey of recent social changes in the United States,
for the initiative in calling upon the social sciences to undertake the
studies and for constant encouragement as the work has gone forward.
It is indebted to the Rockefeller Foundation for the generous grant
of funds which made the investigations possible.
To the Social Science Research Council and to the Encyclopaedia of
the Social Sciences it is indebted for various services and personnel.
An extraordinary number of institutions and individuals have assisted
in the course of the work. To list them has proved to be impossible and
yet the Committee desires to include all those of whom it has a record.
The work has been decentralized so that at no time has there been avail-
able a complete list of the names of those who have assisted in this
widespread undertaking. For the same reason the categories in which
acknowledgments are sometimes arranged have been impossible in the
present case. In the early stages of the enterprise various experts were
consulted, general advisers have given their aid as the researches pro-
gressed, voluntary research assistants as well as those of the paid staff
have contributed generously of their time, an experienced editorial staff
has prepared the manuscripts and has seen the work through the press,
critical readers have read preliminary and final drafts of the findings and
the chapters and to all of these the Committee extends its grateful thanks.
The names of organizations and individuals are presented in alpha-
betical order as a method, however inadequate, of emphasizing the
democratic reach and variety of the activities which have left their mark
upon this undertaking.
To the following federal departments and bureaus: Department of
Agriculture; Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Bureau of the Budget;
Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Chemistry and Soils; Children's Bu-
reau; Department of Commerce; Office of Education; Federal Reserve
Board; Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce; Department of
the Interior; Department of Justice; Department of Labor; Bureau of
Labor Statistics; Library of Congress; Bureau of Navigation; Public
Health Service; Treasury Department; Veterans' Administration;
Women's Bureau.
[ Ixxvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
To the following research bureaus and organizations: American
Association for Adult Education; American Association of Hospital
Social Workers; American Association for Labor Legislation; American
Association of Museums; American Association for Old Age Security;
American Association of Public Welfare Officials; American Association
of Social Workers; American Association of Visiting Teachers; American
Automobile Association; American Child Health Association; American
Dental Association; American Federation of Arts; American Federation
of Labor; American Institute of Architects; American Legislators'
Association; American Library Association; American Medical Associa-
tion (Council on Medical Education and Hospitals) ; American Municipal
Association; American Psychiatric Social Workers; American Social
Hygiene Association; Art Center, Inc.; Art Institute of Chicago; Associa-
tion of Community Chests and Councils; Bell Telephone Laboratory;
Brookings Institution; Bryn Mawr College; Bureau of Public Personnel
Administration; Chicago Crime Commission; Chicago Real Estate
Board; Child Welfare League of America; Cincinnati Bureau of Municipal
Research; Cities Census Commission; Citizens' Bureau of Milwaukee;
Columbia University; Committee on the Costs of Medical Care; Com-
mittee on Financial and Fiduciary Matters of the Federal Council of the
Churches of Christ in America; Committee on the Grading of Nursing
Schools; Detroit Bureau of Governmental Research; F. W. Dodge
Corporation; Family Welfare Association of America; Governmental
Research Association; Home Missions Council; Institute of Public
Administration; Institute of Social and Religious Research; Industrial
Relations Counselors, Inc.; International Association of Lions Clubs;
International City Managers' Association; John Price Jones Corporation;
Kiwanis International; League of Kansas Municipalities; Metropolitan
Life Insurance Company; Milbank Memorial Fund; Motion Picture
Producers and Distributors of America, Inc.; National Advisory Com-
mittee on Education; National Association of Building Owners and
Managers; National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues;
National Bureau of Casualty and Surety Underwriters; National Bureau
of Economic Research; National Catholic Educational Association;
National Catholic Welfare Council; National Committee for Mental
Hygiene; National Committee on Law Observance and Enforcement;
National Community Center Association; National Conference on City
Planning; National Conference of Jewish Social Service; National Council
of Parent Education; National Education Association of the United
States; National Home Study Council; National Institute of Public
Administration and Bureau of Municipal Research; National League of
Women Voters; National Prison Association; National Probation Asso-
ciation; National Recreation Association; National Social Work Council;
[ Ixxviii 1
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
National Tuberculosis Association; Ohio Institute; Ohio State University;
Otis Elevator Company; Princeton University, Industrial Relations
Section; Public Administration Clearing House; Quota International
Club; Rotary International; Russell Sage Foundation; Soroptomist
Club; State Charities Aid Association (New York); Summer Schools for
Women Workers; Syracuse University; Tax Research Foundation;
United States Golf Association; United States Lawn Tennis Association;
University of Chicago; University of Chicago, School of Social Service
Administration; University of Michigan; University of North Carolina,
Institute for Research in Social Sciences; University of Wisconsin, College
of Agriculture; Vassar College Library; Vermont Country Life Com-
mission; Welfare Council of New York City; Western Reserve University;
White House Conference on Child Health and Protection; Woman's
National Democratic Club; The Woman's World; Women's National
Republican Club; Workers Education Bureau of America; Yale Uni-
versity; Young Men's Christian Association; Zonta International.
To: Grace Abbott, Children's Bureau, United States Department of
Labor; T. G. Addison, Institute for Government Research; Mary Louise
Alexander, Batten Barton Durstine & Osborn Inc., New York; Charles
N. Amsden, Los Angeles Civil Service Commission; John E. Anderson,
University of Minnesota; Mary Anderson, Women's Bureau, United
States Department of Labor; William Anderson, University of Minne-
sota; George B. L. Arner, Bureau of the Census, United States Depart-
ment of Commerce; F. A. Arnold, National Broadcasting Company;
Charles S. Ascher, University of Chicago; Fred W. Ashley, Chief Assistant
Librarian, Library of Congress; H. C. Atkiss, Yale University; W. R.
Aumann, Ohio State University; W. L. Austin, Bureau of the Census,
United States Department of Commerce
Richard F. Bach, Metropolitan Museum of Art (New York) ; Elizabeth
Baker, Barnard College; Frank Bane, American Association of Public
Welfare Officials; Solomon Barkin, Institute of Public Administration;
George E. Barnett, Johns Hopkins University; Ismar Baruch, Assistant
Director Personnel Classification Board; Sanford Bates, United States
Department of Justice; C. E. Batschelet, Bureau of the Census, United
States Department of Commerce; La Verne Beales, Bureau of the Census,
United States Department of Commerce; Charles A. Beard, New
Milford, Connecticut; Dorothy Bemis, Lippincott Library, University
of Pennsylvania; H. H. Bennett, Bureau of Chemistry and Soils, United
States Department of Agriculture; W. E. Berchtold, Aeronautical Cham-
ber of Commerce; Edward L. Bernays, Public Relations Counsel, New
York; F. E. Berquist, Census of Mines and Quarries; William E. Berridge,
[ Ixxix ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Metropolitan Life Insurance Company; Paul V. Betters, Secretary
American Municipal Association; John D. Black, Federal Farm Board
and Harvard University; Kenneth D. Blackfan, Children's Hospital,
Boston; C. P. Blackwell, Director Oklahoma Experiment Station; Roy
Blakey, University of Minnesota; Trevor Bowen, Institute of Social and
Religious Research; George Bowers, University of Chicago; H. A. Bow-
man, Columbia, Missouri; Isaiah Bowman, American Geographical
Society; Howard Brancher, National Recreation Association, New York;
Herbert M. Bratter, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United
States Department of Commerce; Hugh P. Brinton, Jr., University of
North Carolina; Rollo H. Britten, Public Health Service, United States
Treasury Department; Albred M. Brooks, Swarthmore College; Sidney
Brooks, International Telephone & Telegraph Corporation; Clarence J.
Brown, Secretary of State, Columbus, Ohio; Frederick W. Brown,
National Committee for Mental Hygiene; Josephine Brown, Family
Welfare Association of America; Roy M. Brown, School of Public Welfare,
University of North Carolina; Louis Brownlow, Public Administration
Clearing House, Chicago; Frank J. Bruno, Washington University; W.
G. Bryan; A. E. Buck, Institute of Public Administration; John C. Burg,
Statler Hotels; E. W. Burgess, University of Chicago; John M. Byrne,
Casket Manufacturers Association of America; George D. Butler,
National Recreation Association
Mark A. Cadwell, New York State Hotel Association; Alfred Cahen,
College of the City of New York; L. G. Caldwell, Standing Committee on
Radio Law, American Bar Association; S. P. Capen, University of Buffalo;
John A. Carlyle, Washington University; Mabel Carney, Teachers Col-
lege, Columbia University; Niles Carpenter, University of Buffalo;
William J. Carson, University of Pennsylvania; C. C. Carstens, Child
Welfare League of America; J. J. Carty, Media Records; C. A. Casey,
Interstate Commerce Commission; Katherine Casey, Hahn Department
Stores, Inc.; Ralph D. Casey, University of Minnesota; E. R. Cass,
American Prison Association; Robert E. Chaddock, Columbia Univer-
sity; Henry B. Chamberlin, Chicago Crime Commission; Joseph P.
Chamberlain, Columbia Law School ; Alice Channing, Boston Council of
Social Agencies; Roy D. Chapin, Secretary of Commerce, United States
Department of Commerce; H. W. Chase, President, University of Illi-
nois; Paul T. Cherington, New York; C. M. Chilson, Superintendent
Pine City Consolidated Schools, Washington; C. L. Christensen, College
of Agriculture, University of Wisconsin; Charlton F. Chute, University
of Chicago; Charles L. Chute, National Probation Association; J. Maurice
Clark, Columbia University; R. H. Coats, Dominion Statistician, Ottawa,
Canada; H. F. Cofrancesco, New Haven, Connecticut; Joanna C. Col-
[ Ixxx ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
cord, Russell Sage Foundation; Arthur H. Cole, Harvard University;
Arch Coleman, United States Post Office Department; L. V. Coleman,
American Association of Museums; Selwyn D. Collins, Public Health
Service, United States Treasury Department; Milton Colvin Tulane
University; Alzada Comstock, Mount Holyoke College; Milton Conover,
Yale University; Oscar Cooley, Cooperative League of the United States
of America; William John Cooper, United States Commissioner of Edu-
cation; William Copelan, Chief of Police, Cincinnati, Ohio; Philip Cor-
nick, Institute of Public Administration; Edward P. Costigan, Washing-
ton, D.C.; F. G. Cottrell, Bureau of Chemistry and Soils, United States
Department of Agriculture; George S. Counts, Teachers College, Colum-
bia University; John Cover, University of Chicago; Paul Cowles, Asso-
ciated Press; Arthur J. Cramp, American Medical Association; M. D. C.
Crawford, Fairchild Publications; W. H. Crocket, State of Vermont
Publicity Department; Frank Crowninshield, New York
J. O. Dahl, Hotel Management; J. F. Daley, Bureau of the Census,
United States Department of Commerce; Walter H. Daly, WTarden,
Indiana State Prison; J. E. Dally, Milwaukee Journal; Royden J. Dan-
gerfield, University of Oklahoma; C. R. Daugherty, University of Pitts-
burgh; Joseph S. Davis, Food Research Institute, Stanford University;
Watson Davis, Science Service, Inc.; W. W. Dawson, Western Reserve
University Law School; E. E. Day, Rockefeller Foundation; Neva R.
Deardorff, Welfare Council of New York City; Arthur H. DeBra, Mo-
tion Picture Producers and Distributors of America, Inc.; Henry S.
Dennison, Framingham, Massachusetts; Edward R. Dewey, Bureau of
the Census, United States Department of Commerce; John Dickinson,
University of Pennsylvania Law School; Roy Dickinson, Printers' Ink
Publications; May Diehl, School of Education, University of Chicago;
Emily Dinwiddie, Director, Children's Bureau, Virginia State Depart-
ment of Public Welfare; John Doan, Western Reserve University;
Walter F. Dodd, Yale Law School; Carl Doering, Harvard University;
H. Paul Douglass, Institute of Social and Religious Research; Louis I.
Dublin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Company; Cornelius Du Bois,
Time; Florence Dubois, New York; R. L. Duff us, New York Times; R.
L. Duley, Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station; H. G. Duncan,
University of New Hampshire; Arthur Dunham, Bureau of Social
Hygiene; J. P. Dunlop, Bureau of Mines, United States Department of
Commerce; H. C. Dunn, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce,
United States Department of Commerce
E. M. East, Harvard University (Bussey Institute); Donald Eastman,
R. O. Eastman Company; Roscoe C. Edlund, Cleanliness Institute;
[ Ixxxi ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Alba M. Edwards, Bureau of the Census, United States Department of
Commerce; Newton Edwards, University of Chicago; Seba Eldridge,
University of Kansas; Mabel Ellis, International Institute, Boston;
Folger Emerson, University of California; Haven Emerson, Columbia
Medical School; D. C. Ericson, University of Minnesota; Cortez A. M.
Ewing, University of Oklahoma
H. S. Fairbank, Bureau of Public Roads, United States Department of
Agriculture; Fred Rogers Fairchild, Yale University; H. P. Fairchild,
New York University; John A. Fairlie, University of Illinois; Clara
Guignard Faris, Providence, Rhode Island; Royal B. Farnum, Rhode
Island School of Design; Leah Feder, Russell Sage Foundation; Charles
G. Fen wick, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania; R. W. Ferrell, National Advertis-
ing Records; Arthur Fertig, Arthur Fertig & Company; Morris Fishbein,
American Medical Association; Katherine Fisher, Good Housekeeping
Institute; John A. Fitch, New York School of Social Work; Rose Fitz-
gerald, Hunter College; Jean Flexner, Children's Bureau, United States
Department of Labor; Russell Forbes, National Municipal League;
James Ford, Harvard University; C. W. Foss, American Telephone
and Telegraph Company; Eleanor Frankel, Amalgamated Clothing
Workers; Felix Frankfurter, Harvard Law School; Everett Fraser,
University of Minnesota Law School; Frank N. Freeman, University of
Chicago; Ernst Freund, University of Chicago Law School; John W.
Frey, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Depart-
ment of Commerce; James L. Fri, National Retail Dry Goods Association;
Gladys Friedman, Industrial Relations Counselors; R. F. Fuchs, Wash-
ington University; Hugh Fuller, Atlanta, Georgia; J. W. Furness, Bureau
of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Department of
Commerce
Hugh Gallagher, Syracuse University; C. J. Galpin, Bureau of Agri-
cultural Economics, United States Department of Agriculture; William
S. Gaud, Jr., Yale Law School; John M. Gaus, University of Wisconsin;
H. V. Geib, Temple (Texas) Agricultural Experiment Station, United
States Department of Agriculture; Joseph A. Gerk, Chief of Police, St.
Louis, Missouri; D. C. Gertler, Tulane University; Arnold Gesell, Yale
University; Luella Getty s, University of Chicago; Mary Gilson, Uni-
versity of Chicago; Corrado Gini, University of Rome, Rome, Italy;
Elizabeth Goan, Fairchild Publications; E. A. Golden weiser, Federal
Reserve Board; J. Goldhammer, International Telephone and Telegraph
Corporation; Julian E. Goldstein, Director, Jewish Institute of Religion,
New York; Charles Gordon, American Automobile Association; Harold
F. Gosnell, University of Chicago; N. S. B. Gras, Harvard University;
[ Ixxxii ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
C. Hartley Grattan, New York; Richard Graves, University of Cali-
fornia; Bertha Gray, University of Chicago; L. C. Gray, Bureau of
Agricultural Economics, United States Department of Agriculture;
Thomas Green, American Hotel Association; Mamie R. Greenfield;
John Alden Grimes, Bureau of Internal Revenue, United States Treasury
Department; Starke M. Grogan, Bureau of the Census, United States
Department of Commerce; L. O. Grondahl, Director of Research, Union
Switch and Signal Company; Ernest R. Groves, University of North
Carolina; E. J. Guengerich, American Telephone and Telegraph Com-
pany; John Guernsey, United States Department of Commerce; Luther
Gulick, National Institute of Public Administration
Alfred Haag, United States Shipping Board; A. E. Haase, Association of
National Ad vertisers ; Louis Hacker, Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences;
Robert M. Haig, Columbia University; Hugh E. Hale, Vice Chairman
Eastern Group (railways); F. S. Hall, Russell Sage Foundation; Ray
Hall, Washington, D. C.; Walton H. Hamilton, Yale Law School; Max
S. Handman, University of Michigan; C. Hanes, Duke University; Lee
F. Hanmer, Russell Sage Foundation; Agnes K. Hanna, Children's
Bureau, United States Department of Labor; Henry Harap, Detroit,
Michigan; J. B. S. Hardman, Amalgamated Clothing Workers; Albert
J. Harno, University of Illinois Law School; N. F. Harriman, Executive
Chairman, Federal Purchasing Board; George J. Harris, Bureau of
Immigration, United States Department of Labor; Joseph P. Harris,
University of Washington; Albert Bushnell Hart, Washington, D. C.;
Ella B. Hart, Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania; George A. Hastings, Washing-
ton, D. C.; Carlton J. H. Hayes, Columbia University; J. W. Hayes,
Crowell Publishing Company; Ralph Hayes, New York City; Will
Hays, Motion Picture Producers and Distributors of America, Incor-
porated; Jean MacAlpine Heer, Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Reuel G.
Hemdahl, University of Chicago; Leon Henderson, Russell Sage Founda-
tion; F. F. Hendrickson, World Convention Dates; Samuel Herman,
University of Chicago; N. S. Herring, Duke University; Frank L. Hess,
Bureau of Mines, United States Department of Commerce; D. F. Hewett,
United States Geological Survey; B. H. Hibbard, University of Wiscon-
sin; Norman E. Himes, Colgate University; Marion Hirschburg, Univer-
sity of Iowa; William Hodson, Welfare Council of New York City;
Margaret H. Hogg, Russell Sage Foundation; Arthur N. Holcomb,
Harvard University; C. L. Holmes, Bureau of Agricultural Economics,
United States Department of Agriculture; James H. Holohan, Warden,
California State Prison; J. Edgar Hoover, United States Department of
Justice; W. C. Hoppes, Bowling Green State College, Ohio; Glenore
Home, University of Chicago; Kathleen Howard, Harper's Bazaar;
[ Ixxxiii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Mayne S. Howard, New York State Department of Taxation and Fin-
ance; Henry D. Hubbard, Assistant to the Director, Bureau of Stand-
ards, United States Department of Commerce; Henry Vincent Hubbard,
Harvard University; Theodora Kimball Hubbard, American City
Planning Institute; Amy Hewes, Mount Holyoke College; S. M. Hull,
Western Electric Company, Chicago; Bishop C. Hunt, Harvard Univer-
sity; W. M. Hurst, Bureau of Agricultural Engineering, United States
Department of Agriculture: Robert M. Hutchins, President, University
of Chicago; R. vonHuhn, United States Department of Commerce
E. P. H. James, National Broadcasting Company; H. H. James, De
Pauw University; F. W. Jameson, Montgomery Ward and Company;
Ralph C. Janoschka, Bureau of the Census, United States Department
of Commerce; Mary Jarrett, Welfare Council of New York City; Elmer
Jenkins, American Automobile Association; Hans Jenny, Missouri
Agricultural Experiment Station ; Katharine Jocher, University of North
Carolina; Alvin Johnson, New School for Social Research ; Frank Johnson,
Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Department
of Commerce; Guy B. Johnson, University of North Carolina; Dorothy
Jones, University of Chicago; John Price Jones, New York City; C. E.
Julihn, Bureau of Mines, United States Department of Commerce
Waldemar Kaempffert, Science and Engineering Editor, New York
Times; John J. Karol, Columbia Broadcasting System; A. J. Kavanaugh,
Chief of Police, Department of Public Safety, Rochester, New York;
John Keddy, Bureau of Industrial Alcohol, United States Treasury
Department; Leila Keith, Vassar College; Benjamin B. Kendrick,
Woman's College, University of -North Carolina; Constance Kent,
Household Finance Corporation; A. R. Ketcham, R. L. Polk and Com-
pany; V. O. Key, University of Chicago; O. E. Kiessling, Bureau of
Mines, United States Department of Commerce; Samuel C. Kincheloe,
Chicago Theological Seminary; Susan M. Kingsbury, Bryn Mawr
College; Otto Kinkeldey, Ithaca, New York; S. M. Kintner, Assistant
Vice President, Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company;
Clifford Kirkpatrick, University of Minnesota; H. I. Kleinhaus, National
Retail Dry Goods Association; Oswald Knauth, R. H. Macy and Com-
pany; Hildegarde Kneeland, Bureau of Home Economics, United States
Department of Agriculture; Charles M. Kneier, University of Illinois;
Frank Knight, University of Chicago
I. M. Labovitz, University of Chicago; H. T. LaCrosse, United States
Department of Commerce; Harold A. LaFount, Federal Radio Com-
mission; Walter Laidlaw, Cities Census Commission, New York City;
[ Ixxxiv ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Harry W. Laidler, Executive Director, League for Industrial Democracy;
Robert P. Lament, American Iron and Steel Institute; H. D. Lasswell,
University of Chicago; Lewis E. Lawes, Warden, Sing Sing Prison, Ossin-
ing, New York; Ellis Lawrence; Porter R. Lee, New York School of
Social Work; A. W. Lehman, Association of National Advertisers;
William M. Leiserson, Antioch College; Simeon E. Leland, University
of Chicago; William Draper Lewis, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; J. G.
Lipman, Director, New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station; Edna
Lonigan, formerly Statistician, New York State Department of Labor;
Milton E. Lord, Director, Boston Public Library; Lewis L. Lorwin,
Brookings Institution; J. Edwin Losey; Alfred J. Lotka, Metropolitan
Life Insurance Company; G. F. Loughlin, Geological Survey, United
States Department of the Interior; Isador Lubin, Brookings Institution;
Emma O. Lundberg, Child Welfare League of America; H. M. Lydenburg,
Assistant Director, New York Public Library; Laula Lynagh, Citizen's
Bureau of Milwaukee; Leverett S. Lyon, Brookings Institution
T. H. MacDonald, Bureau of Public Roads, United States Department
of Agriculture; Robert M. Maclver, Columbia University; Mrs. L. W.
MacKenzie, American Association of Advertising Agencies; H. E.
MacNiven, National Furniture Warehousemen's Association; Eugene
McAuliffe, President, Union Pacific Coal Company; R. S. McBride,
Washington, D. C.; A. G. McCall, Bureau of Chemistry and Soils,
United States Department of Agriculture; L. J. McCarthy, International
Magazine Company; Carl E. McCombs, Institute of Public Administra-
tion; S. H. McCory, Bureau of Agricultural Engineering, United States
Department of Agriculture; Francis L. McGarraghy; Kenneth McGill,
University of Chicago; Rose McHugh, Fordham School of Social Work;
K. L. McKee, American Electric Railway Association; Eva B. McKenzie,
Ann Arbor, Michigan; Teresa McMahon, University of Washington;
Wayne McMillen, University of Chicago; O. K. McMurray, University
of California; Dallas Mallinson; Lida Mann, Bureau of Mines, United
States Department of Commerce; D. B. Mansfield, Duke University;
C. F. Marbut, Chief, Soil Survey, United States Department of Agri-
culture; J. H. Marshall, Yale Law School; L. C. Marshall, Institute of
Law, Johns Hopkins University; Stewart E. Martin; Robert Maxwell,
Hearst Corporation; Samuel C. May, University of California; Bennett
Mead, Bureau of Prisons, United States Department of Justice; W. J.
Meehan, Superintendent of Police, Minneapolis ; Bruce L. Melvin, Cornell
University; S. W. Mendum, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, United
States Department of Agriculture; Lois Meredith, American Association
of Psychiatric Social Workers; Lewis Meriam, Brookings Institution;
John C. Merriam, Carnegie Institution of Washington; Julia Wright
[ Ixxxv ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Merrill, American Library Association; M. C. Merrill, Office of Informa-
tion, United States Department of Agriculture; Charles P. Messick,
Secretary, New Jersey Civil Service Commission; Robert W. Metcalf,
Bureau of Mines, United States Department of Commerce; Norman S.
Meyers, Federal Trade Commission; Mary E. Milburn, Research Assist-
ant, United States Department of Labor; John A. Miller, Electric Railway
Journal; Justin Miller, Duke University; M. F. Miller, Missouri Agri-
cultural Experiment Station; Alden B. Mills, Committee on the Costs of
Medical Care; Edwin Mims, Jr., Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences;
Helen Moats, University of Chicago; Gilbert H. Montague, New York
City; A. J. Montgomery, American Automobile Association; E. W.
Montgomery, University of Kentucky ; Hollister Moore, Chilton Journals ;
E. L. Morgan, College of Agriculture, University of Missouri; M. F.
Morgan, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station; Herman N.
Morse, Home Missions Council, New York City ; Paul R. Mort, Teachers
College, Columbia University; W. E. Mosher, School of Citizenship,
Syracuse University; Rodney L. Mott, University of Chicago; Ernest
R. Mowrer, Northwestern University; Mildred Mudgett, Family Welfare
Society, Minneapolis; H. W. Mumford, Director, Illinois Agricultural
Experiment Station; R. W. Murchie, University of Minnesota
Frederick R. Neely, United States Department of Commerce; Morris
R. Neifeld, Beneficial Management Corporation; Jack Neller, Tulane
University; Charles Newcomb, University of Chicago; Mabel Newcomer,
Vassar College; Bernard J. Newman, Philadelphia Housing Association;
C. T. North, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States
Department of Commerce; L. J. Norton, University of Illinois; Frank
W. Notestein, Milbank Memorial Fund; Rolf Nugent, Russell Sage
Foundation; Alice Scott Nutt, Children's Bureau, United States Depart-
ment of Labor; Paul Nystrom, Columbia University
John O'Brien, Chief Inspector, Police Department, New York City;
Charlton Ogburn, New York City; Rt. Rev. Edwin V. O'Hara, Director,
National Catholic Welfare Council ; Herman Oliphant, Institute of Law,
Johns Hopkins University; Lawrence M. Orton, Regional Plan of New
York; Marguerite Owen, Secretary to Senator Edward P. Costigan
D. S. Paoe, Curtis Publishing Company; George T. Palmer, American
Child Health Association; James Palmer, University of Chicago; H. C.
Parsons, Secretary, Massachusetts Commission on Probation, Boston;
Raymond Pearl, Johns Hopkins University; O. P. Pearson, National
Automobile Chamber of Commerce; Nathaniel Peffer; V. H. Pelz,
Institute of Food Distribution; Rollin M. Perkins, College of Law, State
[ Ixxxvi ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
University of Iowa; Armstrong Perry, National Committee on Education
by Radio; Jack B. Peters, Dorrance, Sullivan and Company; George M.
Peterson, Giannini Foundation, University of California; A. W. Petschaft;
Marlen Pew, Editor & Publisher; Joseph Pierson, Press Wireless, Incor-
porated; James S. Plant, Essex County New Jersey Child Guidance
Clinic; W. C. Plummer, University of Pennsylvania; Paul Popenoe,
Institute of Family Relations; Kirk H. Porter, University of Iowa;
F. R. Powell, Institute for Government Research; H. H. Punke,
University of Illinois
Stuart Queen, Washington University; J. H. Quier, J. David Houser and
Associates; William J. Quinn, Chief of Police, City of San Francisco
T. J. Rairioff; J. O. Rankin; A. G. Rau, Moravian College, Bethlehem,
Pennsylvania; May H. Raymond, New York State Department of
Correction; Alfred Z. Reed, Carnegie Corporation; Louis S. Reed; J. M.
Reinhart; E. B. Reuter, University of Iowa; George S. Rice, Bureau of
Mines, United States Department of Commerce; I. G. Richardson, J. C.
Penney Company; Clarence Ridley, Secretary, International City Man-
agers' Association; Harold Robinson, Yale Law School; Fred Rodell,
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; H. O. Rogers, Bureau of Mines, United States
Department of Commerce; E. C. Romine, Horwath and Horwath; J. C.
Roop, United States Bureau of the Budget; S. McKee Rosen, University
of Chicago; Sylvia E. Rosenburg, Hunter College; E. A. Ross, University
of Wisconsin; Frank A. Ross, Columbia University; Malcolm Ross; Eve
Rossel, Bureau of Personnel Administration, United States Department
of Agriculture; R. E. Royall, Bureau of Public Roads, United States
Department of Agriculture; James T. Ruby, Library of Congress; Jane
Ruby; Beardsley Ruml, University of Chicago; Helen B. Russell; W. F.
Russell, Teachers College, Columbia University; Franklin W. Ryan,
Franklin Management Bureau; John A. Ryan, National Catholic
Welfare Conference
Marcus Sachs, Washington University; Morse Salisbury, Office of
Information, United States Department of Agriculture; Robert M. Salter,
Ohio Agricultural Experiment Station; D wight Sanderson, New York
College of Agriculture, Cornell University; David J. Saposs, Brookwood
Labor College; Frederick William Schenk, University of Chicago; Arthur
M. Schlesinger, Harvard University; F. J. Schlink, Consumers' Research;
Henry Schultz, University of Chicago; Ben M. Selekman, Associated
Jewish Philanthropies, Boston ; Thorsten Sellin, Bureau of Social Hygiene;
Joseph J. Senturia, Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences; William
Shalfroth, American Bar Association; Dorothy Shaver, Lord & Taylor,
[ Ixxxvii ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
New York; Oliver Short, Employment Commissioner, State of Maryland;
William H. Short, National Committee for the Study of Social Values in
Motion Pictures; Jouett Shouse, Democratic National Committee; D. A.
Shutt, Dominion Experimental Farms, Ottawa, Canada; Myron Silbert,
Hahn Department Stores, Incorporated; Katherine E. Simons, Bureau of
Mines, United States Department of Agriculture; Hawley S. Simpson,
American Electric Railway Association; C. C. Sims, State Teachers,
Murfreesboro, Tennessee; Henry Upson Sims, Birmingham, Alabama;
John F. Skirrow, Postal Telegraph-Cable Company; Ruth Skom, Univer-
sity of Chicago; Sumner H. Slichter, Harvard University; Bruce Smith,
Institute of Public Administration; C. B. Smith, Extension Service,
United States Department of Agriculture; George Otis Smith, Federal
Power Commission; Herbert A. Smith, Forest Service, United States
Department of Agriculture; Mary Phlegar Smith, Hollins College;
Richard J. Smith, Yale Law School; T. Lynn Smith; Vernon G. Sorrell;
W. U. Sparhawk, Forest Service, United States Department of Agricul-
ture; Joseph Spengler, University of Arizona; Charles Spoerke, Central
Police Station, Cleveland; J. R. Stauffer, Electric Railway Journal; A. W.
Stearns, Massachusetts Commission of Correction; Bernhard J. Stern,
Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences; William M. Steuart, Bureau of the
Census, United States Department of Commerce; George Stevenson,
National Committee for Mental Hygiene; C. L. Stewart, University of
Illinois; Frank M. Stewart, University of Texas; Carl W. Stocks, Bus
Transportation; George D. Stoddard, University of Iowa; Herbert R.
Stolz, University of California; M. A. Stringer, New York Evening Post;
Helen M. Strong, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United
States Department of Commerce; French Strother, the White House;
Wesley A. Sturges, Yale Law School; Frank M. Surface, Bureau of
Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United States Department of Com-
merce; Henry Suzzallo, Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of
Teaching; Earl Swisher, Harvard University; Allen B. Sykes, American
Newspaper Publishers' Association
Marion Talbot, University of Chicago; Fred Telford, Bureau of Public
Personnel Administration; W. D. Terrell, Radio Division, United States
Department of Commerce; Sophie Theis, New York State Charities Aid
Association; Dorothy Thomas, Institute of Human Relations; W. I.
Thomas, Social Science Research Council; Guy A. Thompson, American
Bar Association; Elihu Thomson, Thomson Research Laboratory;
Florence C. Thorne, American Federation of Labor; Elizabeth Todd,
Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences; T. W. Todd, Western Reserve
University; John F. Tremain, New York State Commission of Correc-
tions; Leon E. Truesdell, Bureau of the Census, United States Depart-
[ Ixxxviii ]
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ment of Commerce; Scott Turner, Bureau of Mines, United States
Department of Commerce
Lent D. Upson, Detroit Bureau of Governmental Research
Harry Venneman, Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences ; Mark Villchur,
Foreign Language Information Service; George B. Void, University of
Minnesota; George von Tungeln, Iowa State College
Harvey Walker, Ohio State University; Henry Wallace, Des Moines,
Iowa; Richard J. Walsh, John Day Company; Edward P. Warner,
National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics; G. F. Warren, Cornell
University; A. W. Watts, United States Post Office Department; U. S.
Webb, San Francisco, California; Elizabeth Weber, Hunter College;
George S. Wehrwein, University of Wisconsin; David Weintraub,
National Bureau of Economic Research ; Harry A. Wembridge, Cleveland,
Ohio; Eleanor Wheeler, University of Chicago; George Wheeler, University
of Chicago; Edna A. White, Merrill-Palmer School, Detroit; Max White,
University of Chicago; Albert Whitney, National Bureau of Casualty
and Surety Underwriters; Willis R. Whitney, General Electric Company;
A. R. Whitson, Wisconsin Agricultural Experiment Station; E. H. Wieck-
ing, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, United States Department of
Agriculture; Dorothy G. Wiehl, Milbank Memorial Fund; Ray Lyman
Wilbur, Secretary of the Interior; D. W. Willard, George Washington
University; Harry Willbach, New York State Parole Commission; J. C.
Willever, Western Union Telegraph Company; Arthur Williams, National
Recreation Association; Faith Williams, Bureau of Home Economics,
United States Department of Agriculture; Gertrude Williams, New York
City; W. F. Willoughby, Institute for Government Research; E. B.
Wilson, Harvard University; M. L. Wilson, College of Agriculture,
Bozeman, Montana; James Wingate, Motion Picture Division, State
of New York; C.-E. A. Winslow, Yale University; W. A. Winterbottom,
Radio Corporation of America; G. Franklin Wisner, Federal Radio
Commission; A. B. Wolfe, Ohio State University; Mrs. Chase Going
Woodhouse, North Carolina College for Women; Helen Wright, Uni-
versity of Chicago; F. A. Wyatt, University of Alberta
Clyde R. Yates, New Haven, Connecticut; Arnold P. Yerkes, Inter-
national Harvester Company of America; Hessel E. Yntema, Institute
of Law, Johns Hopkins University
Augustus D. Zanzig, National Recreation Association; Carle Zimmerman,
Harvard University
[ Ixxxix ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
VOLUME I
PREFATORY NOTE
A the basis for its report of findings the President's Research
Committee on Social Trends presents in the following summary
chapters prepared by its collaborators and in a series of mono-
graphs separately published the scientific results of its researches.
The chapters and monographs are prepared with the primary purpose
of revealing major social questions. They present records, not opinions;
such substantial stuff as may serve as a basis for social action, rather than
recommendations as to the form which action should take.
As a scientific undertaking the researches in general have been limited
to fields where records are available. In preparing certain of the chapters,
notably that on the arts, continuous records proved very scarce ; for some
of the chapters, such as that on social attitudes and interests, it was
necessary to make extensive collections of data not previously recorded;
for others, especially those on population and the utilization of natural
wealth, the abundance of data in. one or more parts of the field led rather
to problems of exclusion and selection.
The scope of the researches was made as broad as feasible not only in
order to yield a picture of changing society in the United States, but also
to provide a framework within which emerging problems might be seen
in their due relations. Other studies, such as those of the presidential Com-
mittee on Recent Economic Changes and the various White House
conferences have been drawn upon, not duplicated, and the schedule of
investigation and publications was so arranged as to enable the collabora-
tors to use the results of the decennial census of 1930 and of various other
surveys, governmental and private which were in progress during the
life of the work.
The investigators were recruited with the advice of officers of the
Social Science Research Council, of universities and other scientific
institutions. Frequent progress reports were made by them and staff
conferences were held from time to time as the researches progressed.
Preliminary drafts of chapters were submitted for criticism as to accuracy
and freedom from bias. In published form the chapters represent not
only a treatment of the factors of social change, but an attempt to
coordinate and integrate the evidence into a useful whole.
Certain topics are excluded because for one reason or another they
could not be fitted into the Committee's scheme. The current business
depression is not explained. Much of the basic materials upon economic
[ xciii 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
changes have been treated in recent publications. Little is said about the
fateful issue of war and peace, although the financial costs of past wars
are set out in the chapters on the functions of government and on taxa-
tion. Though foreign developments — intellectual, political, economic and
social — have exercised a many sided influence upon American trends since
1900, they are mentioned only here and there. There is no chapter on the
growth of scientific knowledge in general, or of social science and social
research in particular.
Quite apart from these major omissions every subject to which a
chapter is devoted has necessarily been treated summarily. In thirteen
cases the chapters are supplemented by the publication of monographs,
to which those who wish a fuller treatment of that subject may turn.
This emphasis upon changing culture points to another limitation so
general in character that it may be overlooked. The primary concern of
these studies has been with social trends. The changes going on in a
culture are the matters which require attention, because they present
novel situations to which the people of a nation must adjust themselves.
Yet a work dealing primarily with social trends may give an exaggerated
impression of topsy-turviness in current life. Here and there chapters
redress the balance by calling attention to features of culture which
maintain themselves with little modification among the welter of new
phenomena.
Another pervasive limitation of the following chapters is that the
authors and collaborators, in their researches, have not been free, as is
the everyday citizen, to pronounce upon social ills and to prescribe
remedies. The committee's terms of appointment by the President con-
templated a division of labor in the task of adapting social organization
more closely to the nation's changing needs. To the committee and its
co-workers falls the technical task of finding as accurately as possible
what significant changes have taken place in American life since the
beginning of the century.
To refrain from expressions of approval and disapproval, not to
make propaganda for any cause, is difficult for the student of social
changes, for as private citizens, the Committee's collaborators have
their individual scales of value, and some are -eager advocates of certain
reforms. But, as sharers in this enterprise, one and all have striven faith-
fully to discover what is, and to report their findings uncolored by their
personal likes and dislikes, or by their hopes and fears of what may be.
In so far as this effort has succeeded — and no human being can be quite
impartial, or is equally alert to all values — the findings can be used by
men and women of widely divergent opinions. Knowledge of social trends,
such as the Committee has aimed to present, is no substitute for social
action; but such knowledge is an indispensable basis for intelligent
[ xciv ]
PREFATORY NOTE
action. Hence the Committee hopes that its work will prove useful to
many groups engaged in practical efforts to promote the general welfare
of the nation. Objective research of this type will be justified in the long
run only as this division of labor heightens a community's efficiency in
making social readjustments.
The contributors who have made the researches set forth in these
chapters and the monographs to follow have been bound rather strictly
by the limitations of scientific methods. If they have departed from
this procedure, in presenting problems or trying to look into the future,
it will be clear to the reader that they are giving their own opinions
regarding the significance of their findings.
[ xcv ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
CHAPTER I
THE POPULATION OF THE NATION
BY WARREN S. THOMPSON AND P. K. WHELPTON
HUMAN beings are the primary agency of social change. The rates
at which the population grows, its geographic distribution and the
proportions in which it is divided between farms and cities, the
racial and national stocks from which it comes, its age trends, sex ratios
and marital condition — all of these help to determine the rapidity and the
direction of past and future changes. In surveying recent social changes
in the United States it is appropriate to begin with these basic factors of
births, deaths and numbers living. With this definite knowledge in
mind, we can better understand the changes in the ways that Americans
make their livings, the values which appeal to them, their criticisms of
themselves, the fears and hopes they entertain about the future.
I. POPULATION GROWTH
The growth of population in the United States has been one of the
outstanding phenomena of world history for more than one hundred and
fifty years. From about 2,500,000 in 1776, the population has increased
to 122,775,046 in 1930, almost fifty-fold in little more than a century
and a half. This chapter is concerned primarily with the period since
1900, l during which the population gained about 47,000,000 or nearly
two-thirds as much as it did in the century and a quarter preceding 1900.
The 1930 census showed a growth of 17,064,426 since 1920, which
exceeded by more than a million the largest increase during any preceding
decade and which was equal to the total population in 1840. It should
be noted, however, that the decennial rate of increase since 1910 has
been considerably lower than that from 1900 to 1910 or from 1890 to
1900, which last was, in turn, below that of any previous decade. Indeed
the rate of increase of 15.7 percent from 1920 to 1930 barely exceeded
that of 15.4 percent from 1910 to 1920.2 (See Figure 1.)
1 The monograph in this series entitled Population Trends in the United States deals in
greater detail with a longer period.
2 These rates have been adjusted to equalize the intercensal interval of 123 months
in 1920-1930 and the interval of 116^ months in 1910-1920.
[ 1 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Although the largest increase in population in any decade occurred
between 1920 and 1930, the trend in annual growth was downward.
(See Figure 2 which is based on section V.) Before the World War, the
year of largest increase was 1913 when about 2,111,000 persons were
added to the population. An abrupt decline then took place until the
lowest point was reached in 1918, when the influenza pandemic and war
time conditions restricted population growth to about 572,000. During
the first few post-war years there was an equally rapid rise which reached
a peak in 1923 with an increase of about 2,119,000, slightly more than
MILLIONS PER CENT
ieo
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1790 1800 1610 1830 1630 1640 1850 I860 I8TO I860 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 I960 I960 1970 I960
FIG. 1. — Population of the United States, and amount and rate of increase by decades,
1790-1980.°
0 Estimated for 1940 and 1950 according to assumptions in section V.
in the highest pre-war year. Since 1923 there has been another marked
decline, each year showing a smaller gain than the one preceding, until
1931 when the increase was only about 875,000 persons. Barring the
abnormal year 1918, this is well below the gain during any other year
since 1910 and during almost every year since 1870.
It seems likely that the growth of population will be small in the
future. Continuation of recent trends would mean that the population
probably will be between 132,500,000 and 134,000,000 in 1940, between
140,500,000 and 145,000,000 in 1950 and between 145,000,000 and 170,-
000,000 in 1980. (Figure 1 and pp. 48-49.) This will mean an increase
of 9,725,000 to 11,225,000 in the decade from 1930-1940 and between
[ 2 ]
POPULATION
8,000,000 and 11,000,000 from 1940 to 1950 compared with an actual
increase of 17,064,426 from 1920 to 1930.
Growth by Race and Nativity. — What has been said regarding the
rate of growth of the total population describes that of the white race,
though slightly understating it since the percentage increase of whites
has for many decades been larger than that of the total population. From
1900 to 1920 the rate of growth of the white population was more than
twice as rapid as that of the Negro (an unusually large differential),
MILLIONS
2.4
2.2
2.0
1 .8
1 .6
1 .4
1 .2
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.4
0 2
f^-Pc cen
v^:
age
Amount
V
A
I9IOII9II 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931
CALENDAR YEARS
\
PER CENT
2.4
2.2
2.0
1 .8
1 .6
1 .4
1 .2
1 .0
0.8
0.6
0.4
FIG. 2. — Population of the United States — amount and rate of annual increase,
1910-1931.
but from 1920 to 1930 the Negroes nearly kept pace with the whites.
(Figure 3.) Comparisons of recent decennial rates for whites and Negroes
are somewhat affected by the apparently less accurate count of Negroes
in 1920 than in 1910 or 1930.3 But even after a liberal allowance for such
a discrepancy, the Negro rate of growth during 1920-1930 is higher than
during the two preceding decades, while that of the whites is the lowest
on record. In the decades prior to 1910, the relative increase of native
whites was sometimes well above that of foreign born whites and some-
times well below. Since 1910, however, the differential in favor of native
3 The under-enumeration of Negroes in 1920 as compared with 1910 and 1930 "would
not appear to exceed 150,000," according to the 1930 census. Population Bulletin, Second
Series (United States Summary}, p. 7.
[3]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
whites has remained large, a situation which is likely to continue. (Figure
3.)4
As far as actual numbers are concerned, the white gain of 14,743,833
during 1920-1930 was second only to that during 1900-1910, while the
Negro gain of 1,428,012 was the largest on record. Both whites and
Negroes, however, had a downward trend in annual growth during the
last decade, that of whites falling the more rapidly. (Figure 4.) The
largest addition to the white population amounted to about 1,958,000
PER CENT INCREASE OR DECREASE
30
4 10
- 10
- 2O
A
Foreign -born White
\
White
I9IO
FIG. 3. — Decennial rate of population increase by race and nativity, 1900-1950.°
0 Estimated for 1940 and 1950 according to assumptions in section V.
in 1923. 5 Since then there has been an unbroken decline in annual in-
crease to about 785,000 in 1931. The largest Negro growth was about
156,000 in 1921, with a steady decrease during the following years to
about 86,000 in 1931. These declines amount to 60 percent in eight years
for whites and 45 percent in ten years for Negroes.
Foreign born whites increased from 10,116,068 in 1900 to 13,135,845
in 1910, but have since shown almost no gain. In the years since 1913
there have been only two, 1920 and 1923, when net immigration was
4 For further discussion, see Chap. XI.
5 In the Fifteenth Census most Mexicans were classed in the Mexican race, hence in
this chapter the figures for the decennial growth of whites (both native and foreign born)
exclude most Mexicans. In "Birth Statistics" and "Mortality Statistics" the census
bureau does not separate Mexican births and deaths from white, hence the figures for
annual growth of whites include Mexicans.
[ 4 ]
POPULATION
sufficiently large to offset the deaths of foreign born whites and leave
much of a surplus for increase. During the other years from the close
of the World War up to 1926, this group about broke even. In 1927
an excess of deaths over net immigrants was recorded and the figure rose
to more than 360,000 in 1931. If this condition continues it will rapidly
reduce the number of foreign born whites in the population.
The growth in the total white population has thus come increasingly
from the native whites which include the native born children of white
immigrants. The years of largest growth for the native whites were 1921
THOUS/
f2,000
+1,600
+1,600
+1.400
+1.200
+1,000
+ 800
+ 600
+ 400
+ 200
O
-200
-400
WDS- INCREASE OR DECREASE
A
-Total 1
Vhite
••M
.x^,.
/
\
/
W-
—
^
^^
•^^s*.
X;
x^
Native
Miite7
^
^^^.
^\
\
A
Foreign
White
^
X."
•-/
V-
JSS9ISZ.
— — ._—
^
^..
X
X
1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 I93O 1931
FIG. 4. — Amount of annual population increase, by race and nativity, 1920-1931.°
a Mexicans are included with whites because births to white women and to Mexican women are not separated
in birth statistics.
and 1924, over 1,600,000 persons being added in each year. Although
there has been a downward trend since 1924, it has been less rapid than
that of Negroes. The native white increase in 1931 was about 1,140,000,
which is more than 30 percent under the peak year of 1921, compared
with a drop of 45 percent for Negroes.
Mexicans, Indians, Japanese and other colored peoples increased at
a more rapid rate than either whites or Negroes from 1920 to 1930.
The numbers involved were small, however, except the increase of the
Mexicans from about 700,000 to more than 1,400,000. It is the Mexican
group which is mainly responsible for the fact that the rate of growth
of the colored races as a whole has been slightly higher than that of the
[5 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
white race during 1920-1930. This is the first decade since 1800-1810
in which the differential was not in favor of the white race.
In spite of these differing trends in rate of growth during recent
decades, the changes in the relative importance of each group have been
small. The proportion of native whites in the population increased from
74.2 percent in 1910 to 77.8 percent in 1930, a little more than offsetting
the decrease from 14.3 percent to 10.9 percent in the proportion of foreign
born whites. Negroes constituted 9.7 percent of the population in 1930
compared with 10.7 percent in 1910, continuing the downward trend
which has lasted over a century. The proportion of "other colored"
rose from 0.8 percent to 1.7 percent during the two decades or nearly
as much as the proportion of Negroes declined.
In the future it seems probable that native whites will increase in
numbers more rapidly than Negroes and that foreign born whites will
decrease. (Figure 3.) According to the assumptions in section V, a popula-
tion of 143,000,000 in 1950 is likely to contain about 116,000,000 native
whites, 10,500,000 foreign whites, and 14,000,000 Negroes. This represents
about the same proportion of whites as in 1930, but a considerably higher
proportion of native whites.
Growth of Population by Regions. — From 1920 to 1930, as in previous
periods, population increase varied greatly between the different states.
(Figure 5.) California and Florida grew considerably faster than other
states, the 1920-1930 increase being 66 percent in California and 52 per-
cent in Florida. At the other extreme, Montana lost in population during
the decade and Georgia was practically stationary.
Of the nine states which gained over 20 percent in population between
1920 and 1930, two were states where climate was an outstanding causal
factor (California and Florida) and two were states where it was impor-
tant (Arizona and Oregon) ; four were states which had a large industrial
or commercial development (Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina
and New York); and the remaining one was Texas where there was a
marked expansion of cotton farming in former ranch country and a rapid
development in the oil industry. The eighteen states in which the rate of
growth was less than 10 percent were Delaware, three New England
states (Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont), and fourteen states in
which agriculture was the important occupation (Virginia, South Caro-
lina, Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North
Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana and Idaho).
Delaware was the only semi-industrial state outside of New England
which failed to increase by as much as 10 percent.
The slow upward trend of population in most agricultural states since
1920 is quite different from the rapid growth which occurred in many
of them from 1900 to 1920. In the earlier period land settlement was
[ 6 1
POPULATION
.IMS!
*
2 8 8 S
2 2 8( 2
D
[7]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
perhaps the most important cause of a high rate of increase, North
Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, the mountain and the Pacific
states all gaining at a very rapid rate. In the rest of the country, only
Florida with its warm winters, Michigan with its growing automobile
industry, New Jersey and Connecticut with their New York City overflow
and West Virginia with its coal mining, gained with anything like the
same rapidity as the newer agricultural states. On the other hand, older
agricultural states and those lacking a rapid industrial development
have had little increase since 1900. In this group are Maine, New Hamp-
shire, Vermont, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Delaware,
Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee.
1920
1930
TOTAL POPULATION
FIG. 6.— Population of the United States, urban and rural, 1900-1930.
Rural and Urban Growth.6 — Not only has the increase of population
been concentrated in a few states during recent years but it has also been
concentrated largely in the urban centers of these states rather than in
their rural areas. The urban population was larger by more than 14,600,-
000 in 1930 than in 1920, as Figure 6 indicates, while the rural non-farm
population was larger by only 3,600,000 and the rural-farm population
was smaller by at least 1,200,000.7 A similar differential existed from
1910 to 1920 but additions to the rural population were relatively larger
before 1910. The farm population was not enumerated separately before
1920 but it probably was larger in 1910 than now, since the entire rural
population increased only a little over 4,000,000 from 1910 to 1930,
6 Urban includes all incorporated places of 2,500 and over and certain unincorporated
"towns" in New England and New Jersey. See also Chap. IX.
7 These comparisons are based on census figures and are only approximate. The census
definition of farm population was more inclusive theoretically in 1920 than in 1930, which
would exaggerate the decline in farm population. The change in date of enumeration from
January 1 in 1920 to April 1 in 1930 would have a contrary effect.
[ 8 ]
POPULATION
whereas the rural non-farm group alone increased about 3,600,000 from
1920 to 1930. As a result of this large urban concentration, the rural
population made up less than 44 percent of the total population in 1930
compared with 60 percent in 1900.
That the farm population decreased from 1920 to 1930 while the urban
population increased is due primarily to the migration from farm to city.
Farm birth rates have long been higher than city birth rates and farm
death rates lower than city death rates, making the rate of natural
increase of population correspondingly larger. But the net movement of
persons from farms to cities was larger than the excess of births over
deaths from 1920 to 1930; hence the farm population decreased in spite
of its high birth rates and low death rates.
The chief reason for the large migration from farm to city during the
last decade was the improvement of farm implements and practices.8
This brought about technological unemployment on farms analogous
to that in the cities. The resulting maladjustment of the labor force has
been more difficult to overcome on the farms. In the first place, it is
easier to increase the per capita consumption of factory products than to
increase the consumption of the foods which make up the bulk of farm
products. Relatively more of the technologically unemployed can be
given work in the former case when production increases. Secondly,
the workers released by one city industry frequently find employment in a
new and rapidly growing industry (radio being an excellent example),
a process which has almost no counterpart on farms.
With little opportunity for an increased demand for farm products
to result in agricultural expansion, or for alternative occupations in the
country to absorb labor, most of the farm workers set free by improved
machinery and technique migrated to the city. If this trend of the years
preceding 1930 continues, machinery may in the future exert an even
greater pressure in forcing workers off farms. A satisfactory cotton
picker is said to be ready for the market and the corn husker is being
further perfected. Moreover, any considerable increase in farm profits
is certain to result in the more general use of tractors, small combines,
and the new and more efficient tillage implements already on the market.
During 1930 and 1931, however, the trend has been changing. The
number of persons leaving farms in 1930 was the smallest in several
years and the number moving to farms by far the largest. The result was
that the farm population not only kept all of its excess of births over
deaths (amounting to 399,000) but also gained 39,000 from the farm-city
interchange, making the total increase in farm population 438,000. This
situation was further accentuated in 1931, the excess of births over deaths
being 441,000 and the excess of arrivals on farms over .departures for
s See Chaps. II and X.
[ 9 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
cities rising rapidly to 207,000, making the increase in farm population
648,000.
The explanation of the changing trend no doubt is the difficulty of
finding employment in cities during 1930 and 1931, and the fact that in
cities food must be bought at the store, while in the country it is possible
to raise much of the family produce. Usually those going to the country
accept a lower standard of living than they previously enjoyed in the
city, partly because prices of the products which farmers sell have been
depressed more than the prices of most other classes of products and
partly because so many of the migrants are moving to submarginal land.
Nevertheless, the farm has been and still is the proverbial place for having
enough to eat in hard times. If prosperity again permits a resumption of
the movement of the surplus farm population to city jobs, the present
urban exodus may do little permanent harm. But should this not occur,
there is danger of developing a large peasant population on the millions
of acres of land which are submarginal for business farming, but which
will permit self-sustaining farming on a low standard of living.
Rural-farm Population by States. — Increases in the rural-farm
population during the last decade occurred in sixteen states, according
to the 1930 census. The numerical gains were fairly large in eight states
(North Carolina, Mississippi, California, Texas, Louisiana, South Dakota,
Washington and Colorado) but small in the other eight. In North Carolina
and California the increase in rural-farm population was more apparent
than real, since persons not actually employed in agriculture have sought
homes in the country and holding a plot of a few acres they reported it
as a "farm." In South Dakota, Texas and the western states, there was
some of this development, no doubt, but in addition there was a real
growth of rural-farm population due to the expansion of the farming
area into regions previously idle or devoted to ranching. This expansion
arose largely from improvements in farming methods and the introduc-
tion of newer types of implements especially applicable to large scale,
dry land farming, which increased human efficiency and lowered pro-
duction costs. In parts of Texas the movement of cotton farming, with
its higher labor requirements per acre, into former grain or grazing areas,
was also responsible for considerable growth.
Although the rural-farm population increased in sixteen states, it
declined in thirty-two,9 these being well distributed outside of the west
and southwest. Declines of more than 50,000 occurred in New York,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia,
South Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee. Excepting Miss-
9 These include Massachusetts and Rhode Island, in which increases of rural-farm
population from 1920 to 1930 shown by the census were due to the change in the basis of
rural-urban classification, described in vol. I, p. 7 of the 1930 census of population.
[ 10 ]
POPULATION
ouri, these are all states in the older agricultural region of the country east
of the Mississippi River. Part of this region does not have the level land
and large fields found in states to the west, while the more favored areas
have lagged in the use of labor saving farm machinery. In these states
not sufficiently level for the latest machinery, competition from the more
efficient areas elsewhere is forcing out of use thousands of acres of land
and is causing the consolidation into larger farms of the land in level
regions adapted to such machinery. In both cases the result has been a
decrease in the number of farms and in the farm population. The New
England, middle Atlantic and east north central states were especially
affected from 1920 to 1930, the number of farms decreasing 13.0 percent
and the rural-farm population decreasing 9.2 percent.10 In the south
Atlantic and east south central states, the decrease of 5.3 percent in the
rural-farm population was slightly larger than that of 4.1 percent in the
number of farms. It is in this section that the greatest increase in human
efficiency, resulting in an increased size of the farms and a large decrease
in rural-farm population, may occur in the near future if the mechanical
cotton picker comes up to expectations. It will have a similar effect on
cotton farming to that which the binder and combine harvester had
on wheat farming.
The increase of 2,400,000 in the rural population compared with
a gain of over 14,600,000 in the urban population, has interesting political
implications. Considering only the population eligible to vote, there
were 100 persons in rural areas to 86 in urban areas in 1910, 100 to 114
in 1920 and 100 to 142 in 1930. Even this marked change in the relative
voting strength of cities and rural areas understates the situation. The
rural population now contains some millions of non-farm people whose
interests and outlook are distinctly urban and it probably will contain
a larger proportion of such persons in the future. Thus the cities are
likely to exercise an increasing political influence.11
Urban Growth by Size of City. — Considering the urban population,
there are interesting differences in the trends of cities of various sizes.
With 14,600,000 more dwellers in all urban places in 1930 than in 1920
cities over a million had nearly 5,000,000 more inhabitants; while cities
of the half- to one-million class had nearly 500,000 fewer inhabitants.
Both of these changes are confused by the passing of Los Angeles and
Detroit into the larger group, but the two groups together contained
about 4,500,000 more persons in 1930 than in 1920. The next largest
change occurred in cities of the quarter- to half-million class, which had
nearly 3,500,000 more dwellers in 1930; but much of this was due to the
10 In calculating this percentage, the total farm population for Massachusetts and
Rhode Island was used because of changes in rural-urban classification mentioned
previously.
11 See Chap. XXIX.
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
fact that there were twenty-four cities in this class in 1930 compared
with thirteen in 1920. These three groups of cities taken together account
for 8,000,000 of the 14,600,000 additional urban people, the remainder
being distributed fairly evenly among smaller cities, an exception being
that places of 2,500 to 5,000 showed little change on the whole.
The concentration of population in large cities was thus considerably
greater in 1930 than it was earlier. (Figure 7.) In the thirty years from
1900 to 1930 the proportion of persons living in cities over 500,000 rose
by almost three-fifths, from 10.7 percent to 17.0 percent. The proportion
in cities of 100,000 to 500,000 rose by about one-half, from 8.1 percent
to 12.6 percent; while in cities of 10,000 to 100,000 the rise was about
two-fifths, from 13.0 percent to 17.9 percent. The proportion in cities
of less than 10,000 changed only from 8.3 percent to 8.6 percent, while
RURAL
a.500-
9,999
10.000-
99.999
1 1 00.000-
1499.999
1500.000
AND OVER
I92O
1930
20
40 60
PER CENT
FIG. 7.— Percentage distribution by size of city of total population, 1900-1930.
that in rural areas decreased from 60.0 percent to 43.8 percent, as men-
tioned earlier.
Although the 1930 census shows a greater concentration of popula-
tion in large cities than any preceding census, the rate of population
growth during the decade was higher in the smaller than in the larger
cities. This may be seen by considering what happened to cities in
certain size groups as of 1920, not allowing for changes from one group
to another as was done in the preceding discussion on the concentration
of population. Defining growth in these stricter terms, the higher rates
of growth since 1920 are found in groups of cities with less than 50,000
persons, as is shown in Figure 8. Not one of these groups increased less
than 24 percent; while among the larger cities only one group gained
as much as this.
Although the growth of small cities since 1920 was, as a group, more
rapid than that of larger cities, it was also more spotty. No city over
250,000 failed to gain in population during the decade, whereas over
one-tenth of those between 10,000 and 250,000 and over one-fifth of
[ 12 ]
POPULATION
those smaller than 10,000 lost in population. (Figure 8.) Furthermore,
among cities gaining in population, there was a greater variation in the
rate of gain for the smaller cities than for the larger. An important part
of this variation is explainable on the basis of location. Most of the
smaller cities having an unusually rapid rate of growth were within a
comparatively short distance of large cities and may properly be called
satellites.12 Probably the development of automobiles, buses, good
roads and high tension electrical transmission lines which has taken place
in recent years has diverted much of the growth in population, which
PER CENT
24
20
16
I 2
Percentage Increase
Per Cent of Cities Declining
Z.500-
9.999
10.000-
24.999
25,000-
49.999
5O.OOO-
99.999
100.000- 250.000- 500.000-
249.999 499.999 999.999
OVER
1.000,000
FIG. 8.— Population increase by size of city, 1920-1930.
would otherwise have accrued to the large central city, to nearby smaller
places, giving them large relative increases.
Taken as a group, the satellite cities of 2,500 to 100,000 in 1920
increased 40.2 percent in the decade, while other cities of similar size
increased 20.8 percent, or about half as much. Subdividing the satellite
and non-satellite cities the rate of increase of satellite cities is over
87 percent for the 2,500 to 5,000 group, each larger group having a
smaller rate down to 16.9 percent for the cities of 50,000 to 100,000.
(Figure 9.) The situation was reversed for the non-satellite cities, the
12 Satellite cities are here defined as those within the metropolitan district of central
cities over 200,000, and the adjacent territory (as defined by the census) of cities of 100,-
000 to 200,000. For fuller discussion, see Chap. IX.
[ 13 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
smallest rate of increase being 17 percent in the 5,000 to 10,000 group
(the rate for the 2,500 to 5,000 group being 17.9 percent — nearly as low)
and the largest rate being 25.2 percent for cities of 50,000 to 100,000.
Just as the increase in the population of satellite cities was much more
rapid than that of non-satellite cities, so the population increase of
communities which were rural in 1920 was much greater in the regions
adjacent to large cities than it was in outlying areas. The satellite rural
areas of 1920 had a population growth of 1,485,070, or 57 percent during
the decade, compared with 2,958,835, or 6 percent for all other rural
regions. Most of this latter increase also took place near cities, though in
PER CENT
F
$%Z\ Within Metropolitan Districts
75
_
#,
••outside of Metropolitan Districts
SO
<
1
25
o
-
1
1
1
1
I
I
r
/
/
/
\
llll
-
-
2.500- 5,000- 10,000- I5.OOO- 25.OOO- 5O.OOO- METROPOLITAN CENTRAL ADJACENT
4.999** 9,999°' 14,999°' 24.99901 49.99901 99,999CT DlSTRICTSD CITIESC TERRITORY
FIG. 9. — Rate of increase of metropolitan districts (central cities and adjacent territory) and
of other cities within and outside of metropolitan districts by size groups, 1920-1930.
0 Each city is classified in 1920 and 1930 according to its'population in 1920.
* The 1920 area is used in both 1920 and 1930.
e As used in the 1920 Census, vol. I, p. 62-63.
a few regions there was some growth of rural population which was not
due to urban attraction. In parts of the southwest there was a sufficient
expansion or intensification of agriculture to stimulate the growth of
villages or small towns; while the opening of mines had the same effect
in parts of West Virginia and Kentucky.
The basic reason for the very uneven rates of growth of population
in small cities seems to lie in changing economic and social functions.
Those supported in large part by agriculture are increasing little if
any, except where agriculture is still developing rapidly. Others fortu-
nate in location or climate (as in the case of Florida and California) or
favored in securing new industries owing to inherent advantages in
POPULATION
access to labor, raw materials, power and markets (as in the Piedmont
of North Carolina) are growing rapidly. But as just indicated, the most
rapid growth of small cities took place within the zones of influence
of the larger centers where the economic and social life is closely inte-
grated with that of the larger community.
How the growth of satellite areas compares with that of the central
cities is also shown in Figure 9. All but the largest satellites increased
more rapidly than the central cities. In this sense, then, it may be said
that there is a tendency toward decentralization within the metropolitan
areas, even though central cities contain an increasing proportion of the
total population.
Considering central cities of different sizes, population growth is
found to be about the same in those of 100,000 to 250,000 as in adjacent
territory, but much larger in territory adjacent to cities over 250,000
than in the central cities themselves. This is natural, as the centrifugal
movement of population from a large city is greater than that from a
small city.
Places of Most Rapid Growth. — Although the foregoing analysis of
the distribution of the growth of population shows the large differences
between certain states and size groups of cities, it does not give a wholly
adequate picture of the concentration of growth from 1920 to 1930. It is
important to emphasize the fact that almost three-fifths of the total
population increase occurred in five well defined groups of cities which
had but 26.2 percent of the nation's population in 1920. These five
groups may be described rather roughly as follows: Group I. — The
metropolitan districts of the middle Atlantic seaboard from New York
City to Baltimore by way of Philadelphia; Group II. — The metropolitan
districts of the Great Lakes region from Buffalo to Milwaukee. This
includes the Akron, Canton and Youngstown metropolitan districts in
Ohio, the Flint district in Michigan, and the Fort Wayne and South Bend
districts in Indiana, as well as those directly on the lakes; Group III. —
The metropolitan districts in Tennessee, Florida, Alabama and northern
Georgia, together with the cities of 25,000 to 100,000 in North Carolina
and Florida; Group IV. — The metropolitan districts from Kansas City
to Houston, and cities in Texas of 25,000 to 100,000; Group F.— The
metropolitan districts in the Pacific coast states, except Spokane.
The cities in these five groups increased 36.1 percent between 1920
and 1930 compared with a 9.0 percent increase for the remainder of the
United States and 16.9 percent for the metropolitan districts not included
in these five groups.13 They added a total of 10,010,063 to their popula-
13 It should be noted that in several cases the 1920 populations in the metropolitan
districts outside of the central cities had to be estimated. But it seems certain that this
has not appreciably affected the results.
[ 15 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tions, which is 58.6 percent of the increase of population in the entire
United States during the decade. Furthermore, over three-fifths of the
increase in these five groups of cities is found in the first two which are
composed entirely of metropolitan districts and which now have about
27,500,000 people concentrated in 11,962 square miles.
Since it is not possible to go into detail here regarding the causes of
this increasing concentration of population within these groups, only one
or two of the more important factors in each region will be mentioned.
In Group I the coast location and a growing seaborne commerce are of
substantial importance. If to these is added the centripetal pull which
New York City (its metropolitan district alone accounts for about four-
fifths of the total increase in this group) is exercising upon all large scale
national and international business organizations, the most potent of the
factors making for growth in the region are accounted for. Its future
growth, therefore, would seem to be tied up very closely with the develop-
ment of foreign commerce and with the trend in the organization of
business.
In Group II the relatively cheap transportation afforded by the
lakes, together with the location of iron and coal deposits, are probably
of prime importance. It should also be noted that the central location
of these cities favors the relatively cheap and expeditious delivery of
the finished products of heavy industry to a very large part of the total
population. Future growth here would seem to be bound up more closely
with the increased use of iron and steel products than any other single
factor.
In Group III the combination of cheap power, cheap labor and near-
ness to certain natural resources is resulting in increased industry.14
Although these metropolitan districts and many of the smaller cities,
particularly those of the Piedmont, are growing very rapidly, only a
beginning has been made as yet; hence this group has absorbed a small
part of the total national growth (5.1 percent). In Florida, climate is
undoubtedly the most important factor.
In Group IV manufacturing plays but a small role. The cities are
largely commercial centers having only a small proportion of their
populations engaged in manufacturing. The expansion of the markets
they serve is, therefore, the chief factor in their growth. Two important
factors in this expansion are the development of the cotton area in
western Texas and Oklahoma and the increased oil production in these
states. In the future it appears unlikely that these cities will continue
to grow at the recent rapid rate. Cotton and oil are already overproduced.
There is no reason to anticipate the rapid development of factory indus-
tries such as textiles, since they are already overbuilt elsewhere.
14 See Chap. V.
[ 16]
POPULATION
In Group V the factor of greatest importance is that much of this
region has a comfortable climate which favors the citrus fruit, winter
vegetable and motion picture industries. The growing trade with the
Far East has no doubt played a part, as have also the distance from the
industrial centers of the east and the discovery of large oil fields. However,
the predominating influence of climate seems to be shown by the popula-
tion growth of 120 percent in southern California from 1920 to 1930 as
compared with 29 percent in central California (San Francisco and Oak-
land) and the northern Pacific port districts (Portland and Seattle). The
future growth of population in this area would seem to depend in large
measure upon the extent to which the lure of climate can be made effective
through greater agricultural and industrial opportunities, through the
development of a leisure or semi-leisure class and the growth of touring.
In this connection it may be of interest to call attention to the fact that
the absolute increase in population in these five groups of cities during
1920-1930 was just about the same as the total estimated increase in
numbers in the United States during 1930-1940. (See page 2.)
II. NATIONAL ORIGINS OF THE POPULATION
Foreign White Stock. — Foreign white stock, which consists of
immigrants and natives of foreign or mixed parentage, increased less
rapidly than the total population during the last decade and now com-
poses barely one-third of all whites. An exact idea of the importance of
the different European nationalities can be obtained for this group, as
the census classified them by the country of birth of the father, or of the
mother in case of a native father. In 1930 the largest group among the
foreign stock consisted of immigrants from Germany and their children
born in this country. (Figure 10.) Italy held second place; England,
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland together were third; followed by
Poland, Canada, the Irish Free State, Russia, Sweden, Czechoslovakia,
Norway, Austria and Hungary in the order named.15
Foreign white stock from Germany has outnumbered that from other
countries for several decades. It has declined in numbers since 1910,
however, and now constitutes only a little more than one-half as much
of all foreign stock as thirty years ago. This decline has been greater among
the German born than among native children of German immigrants,
because German immigration has not been heavy since the 1880's.
Now the natives of German parentage outnumber the German born
by a considerable margin. Stock from what is now the Irish Free State
has been declining in numbers since 1900, ranking sixth in 1930 com-
pared with second in 1900, even if it is assumed that as many as one-
16 For other data and aspects of foreign white stocks see Chap. XI.
[ 17]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
fourth of the "Irish" of 1900 came from Northern Ireland. Since the
heavy immigration from Ireland, like that from Germany, took place
many years ago, the Irish born are now outnumbered over three to
one by the natives of Irish parents.
ENGLAND, WALES, SCOTLAND AND NORTH IRELAND
FIG. 10. — Foreign white stock from leading countries, 1920-1930.
0 Proportion of Irish from Northern Ireland and Irish Free State estimated for 1920.
The number of persons of foreign stock from England, Scotland,
Wales, Northern Ireland and Canada, which was almost stationary from
1900 to 1920, increased considerably from 1920 to 1930. (Figure 10.)
This is the natural consequence of the facts that since the war the quota
system has favored British immigration and that immigration from
Canada has not been restricted at all. Under these conditions, the propor-
tion of foreign born to natives of foreign or mixed parentage in these
f 18 1
POPULATION
nationalities rose appreciably during this decade, although the natives
are still numerically superior. Since about two-thirds of the Canadians
in the United States are of British descent, the total foreign stock of
British origin is almost equal to that of German origin.
From about 1900 to the outbreak of the World War, immigration
was particularly large from Italy, Russia and Austria-Hungary. Italian
stock increased from 727,844 in 1900 to 3,336,941 in 1920, and stocks of
Russian and Austro-Hungarian origin from 2,069,865 to 8,408,088 with
foreign born predominating. This "new" immigration was stopped almost
completely by the World War and has since been severely restricted
by the quota system. As a result, the rate of increase in "new" stocks
from 1920 to 193016 was less than one-half that of 1910-1920 and one-
sixth that of 1900-1910. Furthermore, a decline in numbers will soon
begin since the quotas for these countries are small and the second
generation born in the United States is classed as native stock.
White Population. — Native whites of native parentage have been
increasing considerably faster than the total population and now out-
number all other persons by nearly three to two and other whites by
two to one. They consist chiefly of descendants of immigrants from
Great Britain, Ireland, Germany and the Scandinavian countries who
came to the United States before 1870. The exact importance of the
national stock from each of these countries can only be estimated, how-
ever, and the difficulty becomes greater as the number of generations
increases between the original immigrants and their present descendants.
The number of immigrants from each country has been recorded since
1820, but the number of children per family has varied, intermarriage
has mixed the strains and the number of immigrants returning to their
homes prior to 1907 is not known. Census enumerations show the coun-
try of birth of the parents of each person but not of the grandparents,
so that there is no direct way of telling what national stock is represented
in the second and later generations of native born.
Notwithstanding the difficulty of determining national origin, the
Immigration Act of 1924 provided that "the annual quota of any nation-
ality for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 1927, and for each fiscal year
thereafter, shall be a number which bears the same ratio to 150,000 as
the number of inhabitants in continental United States in 1920 having
that national origin bears ... to the number of inhabitants in con-
tinental United States in 1920, but the minimum quota of any nation-
ality shall be 100." This made it necessary to estimate the national
origins of the 1920 population, a task that was conducted under the
16 Foreign stock of Italy, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Austria, Hungary, Yugoslavia,
Russia, Latvia, Esthonia, Lithuania and Finland in 1930 is compared with that of Russia,
Finland, Italy and Austria-Hungary in 1920 and earlier.
f 19 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
supervision of Joseph A. Hill17 of the Bureau of the Census. The results
indicate that over 41 percent of the 1920 white population was of British
and North Irish origin, over 16 percent of German origin, and over 11
percent of Irish Free State origin. (Figure 11.) Canada, Poland, Italy,
Sweden, Netherlands, France, Czechoslovakia, Russia, Norway, Mexico
and Switzerland follow in the order named. This includes all countries
which were the place of origin of as much as 1 percent of the 1920 white
GERMANY
IRISH FREE STATE
POLAND
ITALY
SWEDEN
NETHERLANDS
FRANCE
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
RUSSIA
NORWAY
SWITZERLAND
FIG. 11. — White population by country of origin, 1920.
0 Mexicans are included with whites in accordance with the classification of the 1990 census. Their number
here appears large in comparison with the estimated number of persons of the Mexican race in 1920 published
in the 1930 census since this latter estimate does not include such persons born in the United States of native
born parents of whom there were large numbers in the southwest.
population (all Mexicans being counted as white in that census) and
accounts for the origin of 95 percent of the total.
There is probably no appreciable change in the national origins of
the population since 1920 in spite of higher birth rates among the "new"
immigrants and unrestricted immigration from Canada and Mexico
up to the middle of 1930. Changes during coming years will depend to a
large extent on population policies. If immigration is severely restricted,
as in 1931, the origin of the white population will vary from 1920 only
17 Message from the President of the United States to Congress transmitting a com-
munication relative to the provisions of the Immigration Act of 1924. (70th Congress, 2d
Session, Senate Document no. 259.)
r 20 1
POPULATION
as differential rates of increase exist between national stocks. But if
the allotted number of quota immigrants, 153,714 a year under the
present law, and an equal number from non-quota countries (chiefly
Canada) are allowed to enter the United States and remain here, the
proportion of the population of northern and western European ancestry
probably will increase slowly.
An interesting implication of the decline in the proportion of foreign
born whites is the decrease in their influence in the field of politics. In
spite of an increase in the proportion of foreign born whites over 21 who
are naturalized, from 51.7 percent in 1910 and 52.8 percent in 1920 to
62.6 in 1930, the proportion which they constituted of all persons eligible
to vote declined from 14.5 percent in 1910 to 12.0 percent in 1920 and
11.6 percent in 1930. Obviously national blocks of foreign voters cannot
continue much longer to play an important part in politics.
III. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
Foreign Born Whites. — As long as fertile land could be easily secured
during the nineteenth century many immigrants settled on farms.
During this period the movement from Germany and the Scandinavian
countries was large, which explains why much of the foreign stock from
these countries is still found in farming areas. Industrial and commer-
cial development has been of increasing importance in recent years.
The resulting demand for labor caused the new immigration from Italy
and eastern Europe to settle chiefly in the cities. Regardless of whether
they were attracted to this country by agricultural or industrial oppor-
tunities, most of the white immigrants since colonial days have settled
in the north and west rather than in the south. While there are several
reasons for this, perhaps the most important has been the presence of
the Negro in the south. The population of the south has thus been made
up since early days chiefly of native whites of native parentage and of
Negroes and that of the north and west of native whites of native
parentage and foreign stock.
In 1930 the foreign born whites were concentrated in Massachusetts,
Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, making up
over 20 percent of the population in the New England and the middle
Atlantic states as against 10.9 percent for the entire United States.18
(Figure 12.) This concentration has been going on for several decades
and these five states contain 42.2 percent of the foreign born whites
in 1930 compared with 34.6 percent in 1900. On the other hand, the west
north central states contained only 7.9 percent of all foreign born whites
in 1930 instead of 15.0 percent as in 1900. This nativity group is almost
18 Using the 1930 census classification for 1930 and 1920, which excludes most Mexicans
from white groups. For figures, see Chap. XI.
[21 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
f i NATIVE WHITE- ggRSJ
1 1 NATIVE PARENTAGE vasz
K30fl FOREIGN-BORN WHITE &:£::::3 NEGRO
R NATIVE WHITE -FOREIGN
3 OR MIXED PARENTAGE
^Bl OTHER
^•i COLORED
PER CENT
3 25 50
75 IOC
NORTHEASTERN
^^^^i
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
1
••••••••i^^^^^^^
^•••••^•^^••Bll^gCTaEnKPhiJIKtNJnsCTB
•^^^^^^SSSS^^^SS^SS^SS^MMMMI^MMMHMMMM
HEHHHHEHH
^——^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^KM
SOUTHERN
1
WESTERN
FIG. 12. — Percentage distribution of the population of certain sections, by race, nativity,
and parentage, 1920-1930.
1930
NATIVE WHITES -NATIVE PARENTAGE
P I RURAL
lZ.500-
19,999
1 1 0,000 -
199,999
I IOO.OOO-
1499.999
| OVER
I 50O.OOO
NATIVE WHITES -FOREIGN OR MIXED PARENTAGE
PER CENT
FIG. 13. — Percentage distribution by size of city of native whites of native parentage,
native whites of foreign or mixed parentage, foreign born whites and Negroes, 1920-1930.
[22]
POPULATION
negligible in the southern states, making up less than 2 percent of the
population.
Not only was the concentration of the foreign born in the northeast
increasing during the decade, but it was centering in large cities to a
greater extent than formerly. In 1920, 33.9 percent of the foreign born
lived in cities over 500,000 compared with 15.5 percent of the total
population, but in 1930 such cities contained 38.9 percent of the foreign
born against 17.0 percent of the total. (Figure 13.) This concentration
in large cities was particularly marked in the middle Atlantic states.
The smaller cities of the country had about the same proportion of the
foreign born in 1930 as in 1920, but the proportion declined in rural
communities from 24.5 percent to 19.7 percent, most of the decrease
occurring in the middle Atlantic, north central and mountain states.
In spite of this increased concentration of foreign born whites in
the large cities of certain areas, the group even here constitutes a smaller
proportion of the total population in 1930 than in 1920. Indeed, immigra-
tion has been so curtailed during recent years that there were fewer
foreign born whites in 1930 than in 1920 in most states. Only in New
York, New Jersey, Michigan and California were there numerical
increases of any importance; and even in these states the increases were
much less than for other groups. In the remainder of the country, the
foreign born whites are passing into the older groups where the death
rate is high and the losses in numbers are large.
Native Whites of Foreign or Mixed Parentage. — In 1930 this group
was concentrated in the same general area as the foreign born whites,
but not to the same extent. Although constituting 20.7 percent of the
population of the United States, it was more than 30 percent of the
population in the northeastern states and between 20 and 30 percent
in the north central and western states. (Figure 12.) Since 1900 the
trend has been toward greater concentration in the northeastern and
Pacific states at the expense of the north central states.
This group is also concentrating in large cities, chiefly at the expense
of rural communities, though to a lesser extent than the foreign born.
Cities of more than 500,000 contained 29.5 percent of the group in 1930
against 27.1 percent in 1920, while the proportion in rural communities
declined from 30.8 percent to 26.6 percent. (Figure 13.) As with the
foreign born, the concentration in large cities occurred chiefly in the
middle Atlantic states, and the rural losses took place in the middle
Atlantic and north central states.
In these areas of increased concentration of native whites of foreign
or mixed parentage, this group made up a larger proportion of the total
population in 1930 than in 1920. In other areas they declined in relative
importance, the net result for the nation as a whole being almost no
[ 23 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
change. Continuation of the present immigration restrictions will check
the growth of this group and within a decade or two it will begin to
decline in numbers.
National Groups. — The geographic distribution of the foreign stocks19
varies greatly. British stock is spread more widely than that of any
other country, one-third being in the middle Atlantic, one-fourth in
the east north central, one-seventh in New England, and one-tenth in
[British Stock.*31
Italian Stock.
gx^ Polish Stock.
PER CENT
NEW ENGLAND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC
EAST NORTH CENTRAL
10
WEST NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN
SOUTH
PACIFIC
FIG. 14. — Percentage distribution by divisions of British, German, Italian and Polish
stock in the United States, 1930.
0 Includes English, Scotch, Welsh and North Irish.
the Pacific states. (Figure 14.) About two-thirds is in urban communi-
ties. About five-sixths of the Irish stock is concentrated in the urban
areas of the middle Atlantic and New England states, chiefly in the
larger cities. Scandinavian immigrants were less attracted to the north-
east than any other group, preferring the good land available in the
north central states. This stock still centers in this area, about one-half
of it in rural communities. The native born portion, however, shows a
19 Foreign stock consists of foreign born and native born of foreign or mixed parentage.
[ 24 ]
POPULATION
tendency to move to the larger cities. German stock, like the British,
is fairly widely distributed, though concentrated somewhat in the east
north central states. About two-thirds is in cities.
Foreign stock from the eastern and southern European countries,
which furnished most of the immigrants from 1900 to the World War,
is heavily concentrated in the middle Atlantic states. Over half of the
Italian, Austrian and Russian stock is in this area; and nearly half of
the Polish and Hungarian; the remainder is mostly in the east north
central states. (Figure 14.) These stocks are especially concentrated
in large cities, over five-sixths of the Italian and Russian stock being
urban and over two-thirds of the other groups. Canadian stock is con-
centrated in the New England states and Michigan — French Canadian
predominating in New England and other Canadian in Michigan.
Over three-fourths of the French Canadian stock and about two-thirds
of the other Canadian is in urban areas.
Native White Stock. — A high proportion of native whites of native
parentage is found in states which have not received much immigration
in recent decades or which contain few Negroes. States in which native
whites of native parentage constitute more than 70 percent of the popu-
lation are Indiana, Missouri and Kansas in the north; West Virginia,
Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma in the south; and Idaho
and New Mexico in the west. During recent decades the proportion of
native whites of native parentage in the total population has been
increasing especially rapidly in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, North
Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska in the north; South Carolina and
Georgia in the south; and Utah and Nevada in the west. In the northern
and western states this trend is due chiefly to the small number of
immigrants in recent years and the gradual dying off of many persons
who came during the heavy immigration from Germany and the Scandi-
navian countries in the nineteenth century. In South Carolina and
Georgia the immediate cause of the increase in the proportion of native
whites of native parentage is the large exodus of Negroes. South Carolina
contained 71,038 fewer Negroes in 1930 than in 1920 and Georgia 135,240
fewer. At the same time, the native white population increased con-
siderably, the excess of births over deaths being well above the migra-
tion to other states.
With the native white stock concentrated in the agricultural states
of the north central and southern divisions, it would be expected that
its distribution by size of community would be quite different from that
of the foreign stock. The facts are that 6.2 percent of the native white
stock was in cities over 1,000,000 in 1930 compared with 24.8 percent
for the foreign white stock, while 52.2 percent was in rural communities
compared with 24.2 percent for the foreign stock. The proportion of the
[ 25 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
native white stock in rural communities, however, showed a somewhat
greater decline during the decade than the foreign white stock.
Although native white stock constitutes a smaller proportion of the
total population in cities over 500,000 than in smaller cities, it gained
in this group from 29.3 percent in 1920 to 31.6 percent in 1930. Not all
of this gain was due to migration of old native stock to these cities; for
grandchildren of immigrants who settled there a few decades ago are
classified as natives, and they account for an important part of the in-
crease. If recent trends continue, almost all rural whites, at least half of
all whites in cities over half a million and three-fourths in smaller
cities will be of native stock within three or four decades.
Negroes. — It is among Negroes, however, that the greatest shift in
distribution has occurred in recent years. This is a consequence of the
large movement off southern farms and plantations which began about
1914, stimulated first by cheap cotton and the boll weevil, and later
by a demand for Negro labor in northern cities. The movement of Negroes
into the northern states tended to counterbalance the decline in immi-
grant arrivals caused by the war and the post-war quota restrictions.
(Figures 12 and 13.) This matter is summarized in Chapter XI, as
is also the distribution of the "other colored."20
IV. AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION
As the nation has become older, the median age of the population
has risen from 16.7 years in 1820 to 26.4 years in 1930. This has come
about because the number of persons in the older groups has increased
faster than the total population and the number in the younger groups
has increased more slowly. The 20—44 group has increased at about the
same rate as the total, so the relative importance of this group is much
the same now as formerly.
This aging of the population is not a new process but one that has
gone on for more than a century. What is new is the greater speed in
recent years and the extent of the changes which have resulted, partic-
ularly in certain parts of the population. To illustrate, the first decrease
in the number of persons in an important age group occurred during the
decade 1920-1930. According to the census enumeration, there were
11,573,230 children under 5 years of age in 1920 but only 11,444,390 in
1930. The decline of 128,840 almost equals the number of children under
5 in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle, or in the entire state of
Connecticut. Furthermore, at no census prior to 1930 was the population
in any five-year age group smaller than that in an older five-year group.
But in 1930 there were slightly fewer children in the group under five
20 The various elements of the population and their distribution since 1790 are treated
in detail in the monograph, Population Trends in the United States.
( 26 ]
POPULATION
TOTAL POPULATION
NATIVE WHITES
Males
FOREIGN-BORN WHITES
Females
963 O 3 6
HUNDRED THOUSANDS
Females
MILL >ONS
NEGROES
Males
Females
6303
HUNDRED THOUSANDS
FIG. 15. — Distribution by five year age periods of the total population, native whites,
foreign born whites and Negroes, 1920-1930.
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
years of age than in the five to nine year group, even after allowing for
the under-enumeration that usually occurs in the former group.
While the population under 5 decreased from 1920 to 1930, the in-
crease in the number of elders was larger than for many decades. Persons
45-64 increased over one-fourth and those 65-74 over one-third. It might
almost be said that the older the group, the more rapid the gain in
population.
This decrease of youngsters and large increase of elders had a marked
effect on the age composition of the population. (Figure 15.) The white
pyramid for the 1920 population is broadest at the base and tapers rather
rapidly to the peak. But the pyramid for the 1930 population (outlined in
black) is narrower at the base than higher and tapers more slowly. The
1930 pyramid, much more than the 1920 pyramid, is like the beehive shape
which represents the age distribution of a population stationary in numbers.
Moreover, the narrowed base for 1930 is a step toward the Egyptian
mummy case shape which represents a population declining in numbers.
Age Trends of Race and Nativity Groups. — The age trend from 1920
to 1930 for each race and nativity group of the population differed in
various ways from that for the total population just described. The
decline in the number of children under 5 was larger in the native white
group than in the total population while Negroes and "other colored"
under 5 increased in numbers. Furthermore, the increase in the older
groups was higher among native whites than Negroes. The result is that
the age pyramid of native whites in Figure 15 is narrowed at the base
and broadened at the top to a greater degree than the pyramid of the
total population. This means that the aging of the native white popula-
tion and increase in the ratio of elders to youths (persons under 20)
was correspondingly more rapid. On the other hand, the age pyramid
for Negroes in Figure 15 has about the same shape in 1930 as in 1920,
showing that the Negro population is aging but little and the proportion
of elders to youths is almost unchanged.
The age distribution of the foreign born whites is quite different
from that of the native whites and the Negroes. (Figure 15.) Here there
is no pyramid but something like a spinning top. Age trends from 1920
to 1930 were quite different from those for the groups just mentioned,
for the number of foreign born whites decreased not only in the age period
0-4, but also in each period up to and including 35-39. As the total
number of foreign born whites was almost unchanged from 1920 to 1930,
this decrease in numbers under 40 resulted in a much greater concentra-
tion in older age periods than occurred among native whites or Negroes.
The aging of the foreign born white population was thus more rapid
than that of the other groups and the increase in the ratio of elders to
youths was correspondingly larger.
[ 28 1
POPULATION
Causes of Age Trends. — A brief consideration of the causes of these
age trends will indicate whether they are likely to be temporary or to
continue. Among native whites, the smaller number of children under
5 years of age in 1930 than in 1920 was due to a smaller number of births
from 1925 to 1929 than from 1915 to 1919. In section V on birth rate
trends, it will be shown why the number of births during 1935-1939
is not likely to be much, if any, larger than during 1925-1929. In 1940,
therefore, the proportion of native whites under 5 will be lower than in
1930; indeed there may be a decrease in the number. The marked increase
in the number of native white persons 65 or older is largely the result of
the rapid rise in the number of births that took place from 1830 to 1865.
The number of births continued to increase with sufficient rapidity from
1865 to 1900 so that the number of elders will keep on rising at approxi-
mately the recent high rate for two or three decades more. Native white
elders will certainly be more numerous in 1940 and 1950 than now; and,
owing to the declining birth rate in recent decades, they will constitute
a still larger proportion of the total population. The probable situation in
195021 in comparison with that of 1910 or 1930 is shown in Figure 16.
The proportion of native whites under 20 is likely to decline over one-
fifth, with increases of one-tenth at ages 20—44, one-fourth at ages 45-64,
and nearly one-half at older ages.
The trend for Negroes should be like that for native whites. Section V
shows that the number of Negro births has been decreasing recently,
which presages a decline in the number and proportion of children in the
Negro population. But before 1880 the number of Negro births was
rising rapidly and the Negro expectation of life probably has lengthened
considerably since 1850, so that the recent rise in the number of Negroes
over 65 will be maintained for at least two decades. The Negro population
will thus become older, with the ratio of elders to youths rising rapidly.
Between 1930 and 1950 the proportion of Negroes under 20 is likely to
decline over one-sixth, with increases of one-fourth at ages 45—64 and
over three-fourths at older ages. The age period 20-44 is not likely to
change appreciably in relative importance. (Figure 16.)
The foreign born white group, unlike the native white and Negro
groups, is maintained by immigration rather than births. At present,
immigration policy and economic conditions together are holding the
number of immigrants at a very low level. Since about two-thirds of
those entering are under 30 years of age, the practical cessation of the
movement shuts off the supply of young persons and if continued will
cause them to decrease rapidly in numbers. Only about 10 percent of the
immigrants are older than 45, so variations in the number entering affects
older age groups but little. The population in these groups can continue
21 See pp. 46-49 for basis of 1950 estimates.
[ 29]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
to show gains in numbers for some time as a result of the large immi-
gration which occurred in the years before the outbreak of the World
AGE. O-I9
PER CENT
60
50
65 AND OVER
30
20
10
7ZL
f,''^-\ 950 (Estimated)
FOREIGN-BORN WHITES
AGE _..O-I9
PER CENT
65 AND OVER
AGE. _ O -19
65 AND OVER
FIG. 16. — Percentage distribution by age periods of native whites, foreign born whites
and Negroes, 1910, 1930 and 1950.a
a See pp. 46-49 for basis of 1950 estimates.
War and of any lengthening in expectation of life at age of immigration
to the United States.22 The increase in the proportion in older groups and
22 There has probably been no significant lengthening of the expectation of life of
persons 20 years of age or over for some decades, although the expectation of life of newborn
infants has lengthened considerably. This is discussed in Chap. XII.
[ 30 1
POPULATION
decrease in the proportion in younger groups will thus be greater than the
numerical changes. Estimates of the age composition of foreign born
whites in 1950 are not likely to be as accurate as those of native whites
and Negroes, for reasons pointed out in section V. It is probable, however,
that the proportion 20-44 will be considerably lower in 1950 than in 1930
with a large increase at ages over 65. (Figure 16.)
Age Trends in Urban and Rural Communities. — In general, cities
have relatively fewer children and older people but more persons in the
highly productive ages than rural communities, differences which are
more pronounced as the size of cities increases. (Figure 17.) Thus 10.8
percent of the rural population was under 5 years of age in 1930 compared
with only 7.7 percent in cities over 500,000. For all persons under 20
0-19
20-44
45-64 65 +
500,000 AND OVER
FIG. 17. — Percentage distribution by age of the rural population and of the urban popula-
tion, by size of city, 1930.
the percentages are 44.2 and 32.7. At the other extreme, people 65 and
over comprise 5.8 percent of the population in the rural communities
but only 4.3 percent in the large cities. The central group, aged 20-64,
amounted to 50 percent of the rural population against 63.0 percent in
the large cities. Although it is not a new situation for rural areas to have a
high proportion of children and elders and for large cities to have a high
proportion of young to middle-aged adults, the differentials were larger in
1930 than in 1920.
Four factors seem in large measure to explain this situation. In the
first place, there is a difference in the age makeup of the foreign born
in the cities and in the country. In recent years most of the foreign born
have gone to cities, especially large cities, thereby increasing the young
adult group. During earlier decades, however, more immigrants went to
the farms. The survivors of this group now swell the number of elders in
the rural population.
[ 31 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
A second factor is the rural-urban migration, which contains a high
proportion of young adults seeking jobs in the cities. This pulls down the
numbers in these age groups in the rural population at the same time that
it adds to them in the urban population. On the other hand, there has been
some migration of older people, particularly from large cities, to rural
areas and small towns. In the past elders seem to have found it easier to
care for themselves in small communities, but there are indications that
this may not be the case in the future. Apartment houses, restaurants and
the recreational and cultural opportunities of urban centers may come
to appeal so strongly to elders that they will tend to concentrate in cities
rather than in rural areas or small towns.
A third factor is the birth rate, which is higher in rural than in urban
areas and higher in small cities than in large cities. Finally the fact that
the expectation of life is lower in the city than in the country tends to
raise the proportion of elders in the country above that in cities.
Differences in the age composition of various states are marked and
arise to a considerable extent from the relation between size of community
and age composition just discussed. The west north central, mountain
and southern states have a much higher proportion of their population
in rural areas and a much lower proportion in large cities than do the
other divisions. It is not surprising, therefore, to find that the proportion
of children is higher in these divisions than in other states. Regional
differences are not due entirely to the rural-urban influence, for the pro-
portion of children is lowest in the Pacific states, although the concentra-
tion in large cities is not as marked there as in the middle Atlantic states.
As persons 20-44 are relatively most numerous in large cities, they
are more numerous in states having a greater concentration of popula-
tion in cities. Thus the more urban New England, middle Atlantic,
east north central and Pacific states have a higher proportion of persons
20-44 than do the more rural west north central, mountain and southern
states. The differences are not large, but they are significant.
Persons 65 or older constitute a high proportion of the total popula-
tion in the Pacific states and a low proportion of the total population
in the southern and mountain states, whereas the relative urban develop-
ment of these areas would lead one to expect the opposite. Special factors
are at work in each case. A large migration of elders to the Pacific states
accounts in part for their being so numerous there. The lower proportion
of elders in the south is partly due to the presence of Negroes, since
the expectation of life is considerably shorter for Negroes than for whites.
In the mountain states the proportion of elders is kept down by the
comparatively recent date of settlement and the fact that migration to
these states has not been made up of older persons to the same extent as
the migration to the Pacific states. The effect of large cities and rural
[32]
POPULATION
areas on the proportion of elders is most apparent in comparing the
middle Atlantic, east north central and west north central states. To
summarize the distribution of elders: They constitute the highest pro-
portion of the population in older, rural states having a low rate of
increase and the lowest proportion in newer states and in those growing
rapidly in urban population, California excepted.
Consequences of Age Trends. — The consequences of recent trends in
age composition are already noticeable and will become more pronounced
in the future, since they are almost certain to continue.
Fewer Children. — There were fewer children under 5 years of age in
1930 than in 1920, hence there will be a smaller number to enter the
first grade during 1930-1935 than during 1920-1925. By 1940 or 1945
there will be a smaller number for each grade up to senior high school,
for most of the children who will be in these grades in 1940 were born
during 1924-1931, just as most children in these grades in 1930 were
born during 1914—1921. The number of births in the later period was
nearly 1,200,000 less than the number in the earlier period (see section
V), so that there will be about 1,000,000 fewer children aged 9-16 in
1940 than in 1930, making a liberal allowance for falling death rates.
The number of youths of senior high school, college and university age
has not yet reached a maximum, since the number of births was rising
up to- 1921.*
Although the slowing up of population growth will decrease the
number of children of school age, this seems likely to be offset by an
increase in the proportion attending school. If the highest attendance
standards prevailing in 1930 in any geographic section had been universal,
there would have been about 2,300,000 more children 7-16 years of age in
school. This is about double the decline in the population of this age
which may be expected during the next decade.
There are several reasons for believing that attendance standards
will be raised in this manner. The southern states, which for some time
have had the lowest rates of attendance, improved rapidly during 1920-
1930. Another such decade will bring them almost to the level of the
rest of the country. Secondly, most communities in the United States
already have the system and the plant to care for some increase in
younger pupils; hence the additional expense of such an increase will be
relatively small. Finally, child labor laws and school attendance laws
are steadily becoming more stringent. It is probable, therefore, that
within twenty years the highest legal requirements now prevailing in
any state will become general.
With regard to probable increases in the proportion of persons 17
and over attending school, the outlook is quite different. For one thing,
23 For figures on school attendance, see Chap. VII.
[ 33 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
there is room for a relatively large increase, since only about one-fourth
of those from 17 to 20 are now attending school. But of far greater signifi-
cance is the fact that any substantial increase in attendance in this group
will involve great changes, not only in the educational system, but in
society as a whole. High schools and colleges are far more expensive
to maintain than elementary schools; hence a large increase in attendance
can only be cared for by a largely increased expenditure of public money.
Furthermore, since many of the students, particularly above high school,
must live away from home, the family expenditures for attendance mount
rapidly. But even if the community and the parents could meet these
costs, there is the more difficult matter of directing this added schooling
in such a way that the young people will be better fitted to find satis-
factory work when they leave school than is now the case. What kind
of jobs are going to be open to two or three times the present number of
high school and college graduates? Is the present economic structure
prepared to absorb such an increase of persons with a relatively good
school training ? Is it true that white collar jobs, for example, are already
too few for those who feel that their education entitles them to such work ?
It is not within the province of this chapter to discuss these matters, but
it is proper to suggest that the trends in the growth of the school popula-
tion and in school attendance call for careful study if a nice adjustment
is to be maintained between the educational system on the one hand
and the general social and economic structure on the other.
While the foregoing discussion applies to the United States in
general, it must be remembered that population will increase rapidly
in some localities, will be nearly stationary in other localities and will
decrease in still others, with a corresponding influence on the number of
children.
More Elders.— When the social and economic significance of the
increase of elders is considered, many points of interest emerge. For
example, the problem of old age pensions was one thing in 1930 with
5.4 percent of the population 65 or older, but may be a different thing
in 1950 when the proportion over 65 will be about half again as large.
Furthermore, employment policies which were practicable and worked
little harship when only 22.8 percent of the population was over 45, as in
1930, may not be equally satisfactory when nearly 30 percent is over 45, as
will be the case in 1950. For some time there has been talk of the discrimi-
nation in many industries against men over 40 or 45 years of age. As
this group becomes relatively more numerous, such employment policies
will work increasing hardship.
The rising proportion of people over 45 may demand considerable
revisions in the educational system, particularly if industrial processes
continue to change as in the past. There would seem to be need for some
[ 34 ]
POPULATION
type of adult education which would re-train middle-aged people to work
efficiently under the new conditions. This would make up for the de-
creasing number of young persons entering the working period of life.
As yet, the school system has done comparatively little in this field.
Additional adult education not strictly vocational may also be demanded
if there is a general rise in income levels, for a growing proportion of
adults would then have leisure to devote to matters not directly concerned
with earning a living. This might mean a great increase in the opportuni-
ties for study offered to mature people through the public school system.
The effect on school activities might easily offset the shrinkage in enroll-
ment arising from the decline in the child population. It seems probable
that the general economic condition of the country will be the decisive
factor, both in creating the demand for broader adult education and in
providing the means for its satisfaction.
The increase of the aged will certainly result in an increase of the
dependent aged, unless there is an expansion of employment opportunities
for older persons, or unless accumulations during the working period
greatly increase. It should be remembered, however, that the decline in
the number of children will decrease the group of young dependents. The
net result should be no change in the total amount of dependency if
savings and employment opportunities continue as in the past, or else a
decrease in dependency if older people can remain longer at suitable
work or can accumulate reserves while younger.24
It is interesting to speculate regarding some general consequences
of the aging of our population. Since more of the voters will be older
people, will the political parties be more completely under their control
and hence be more conservative? And will the same tendency toward
conservatism be reflected in the conduct of business? In the past the
nation has been noted for the readiness with which its business men have
adopted new methods and scrapped valuable machines because of
improvements which offered a chance to cut costs. Many other factors
have also contributed to the efficiency of industry and commerce but
there is some reason to think that a part of this progressiveness has been
due to the youth of the management and control.
With the slowing up of population growth and the increase in the
proportion of elders, there may also be a greater concern with the personal
aspects of cultural life. Youth is more concerned with doing things,
forging ahead and making a place in the world. Age is apt to be more
reflective, perhaps because the spur of poverty is less sharp, the inner
driving force is weaker, or time and thought have brought about a change
of ideas as to the goal of life. The mere shift in age distribution, therefore,
may lead to more interest in cultural activities and increased support
24 For discussion of old age assistance, see Chap. XXIV.
[ 35 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
for the arts. Such developments in turn may influence the outlook and
taste of the whole population.
Young Adults. — In the proportion which it bears to the total popula-
tion the age group 20—64 shows little change. During the next twenty
years there will probably be an increase of about 1 percent in the pro-
portion 20-44 and about 4 percent in the proportion 45-64. This indicates
that the productive power of the nation will not be affected to any
marked extent if persons 45-64 can be given suitable work; but it is more
difficult to judge the effects of age changes on consuming capacity.
Perhaps a little light can be shed on both questions by estimating the
number of producing and consuming units represented by a population
with the age distribution of 1910 and 1930 and then with the age dis-
tribution that will probably come about by 1950.
As a result of such calculations,25 it is found that in 1910 and 1930
there was 1 producing unit to 1.67 consuming units. It is reasonably
certain, therefore, that in recent years the problem of finding employ-
ment has not been aggravated appreciably by the fact of a change in
age composition, nor has there been any increase in the proportion of
dependents. Applying the same units to the estimated white and Negro
populations in 1950, it is found that the producing units will have in-
creased about 5.5 percent faster than the consuming units and that there
will be 1 producing unit to 1.59 consuming units. The employment prob-
lem may, therefore, be slightly aggravated in the future by the fact of
age changes. But if the employment problem is solved, the burden
of dependency should grow lighter in consequence of the relatively larger
proportion of the population in the productive ages.
Sex Ratios and Marital Conditions.26 — The sex ratio in the United
States reached a high point for recent years in 1910 when there were 106
males to 100 females. It has been falling since then and in 1930 was only
102.5. This ratio is determined by three factors, the excess of males
among immigrants, the excess of male births and the higher male death
rates at most ages.
Within a country the sex ratio in any particular locality is also
affected by the nature and amount of internal migration. Thus the west
has always had a large excess of males while some of the older parts of
the country have long had an excess of females. Perhaps a more significant
difference is that existing between city and country. In general, cities
have an excess of females, while rural districts have an excess of males.
There are some exceptions to this rule in the cities having heavy indus-
tries, but it holds for most cities, even for those having large numbers of
26 Explained in the monograph, Population Trends in the United States.
26 These topics will be treated in detail in the monograph, Population Trends in the
United States. On account of space limitations only a few observations on sex ratios are
included here.
[ 36 ]
POPULATION
foreign born. Agriculture is primarily a man's job, while occupations
suited to women abound in cities. Furthermore, male death rates are
higher relative to female death rates in cities than in rural districts.
V. FUTURE POPULATION TRENDS
In section I the downward trend in annual population growth for
the last few years was pointed out, but little was said as to whether
this came about through a decreasing number of births, an increasing
number of deaths, or the decline in immigration. Although the federal
government has compiled statistics on immigration for many years,
primary responsibility for the registration of births and deaths has
rested with the states. Most states neglected this matter before 1910,
but subsequently the number of states requiring birth and death registra-
tion increased rapidly up to 1929, when it included all but South Dakota
and Texas. By supplementing registration figures with estimates of the
births and deaths in non-registration states, it is possible to secure fairly
accurate figures for the total population from 1910 to date, and for
native whites, foreign born whites, and Negroes from 1920 to date.
Deaths. — Since 1910 the number of deaths each year has been close
to 1,450,000, except in 1918 when 83,000 war fatalities and 477,000
influenza deaths raised the total to 2,030,000. (Figure 18.) From 1927
to 1931 the average number of deaths was 1,450,000, which is only slightly
above the average of 1,439,000 during 1910—1914, in spite of the large
growth in population from 1910 to 193 1.27
Immigration. — The volume of immigration has varied from year to
year much more than the number of deaths. (Figure 18.) The excess of
persons entering the United States over those departing amounted to as
many as 945,000 in 1913 and 754,000 in 1923, while net departures reached
the extremes of 214,000 in 1918 and 130,000 in 1931. 28 Before the out-
break of the World War, immigration was relatively unrestricted (except
from Asia), the movement depending largely upon the economic advan-
tages which aliens could secure by coming here instead of remaining at
home. During the war there was little immigration; but within a few
years after the armistice, immigration probably would have reached its
old levels, had it not been restricted by the quota laws. During the fiscal
years 1922-1924 the maximum number of quota immigrants admissible
varied between 356,995 and 357,803 per year, but this was reduced to
164,667 on July 1, 1924 and to 153,714 on July 1, 1929. Beginning in the
autumn of 1930, immigration was still further restricted by the refusal
27 For a more detailed discussion see Chap. XII, and the monograph, Population Trends
in the United States.
28 These figures include both aliens and citizens entering continental United States
from, or leaving it for, foreign countries 1910-1931, and also entering from, or leaving for,
insular possessions 1919-1931.
[ 37 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of visas to aliens deemed likely to become public charges. Since the Con-
tract Labor Law of 1885 prohibits the entrance of immigrants with jobs,
about the only persons who can enter are those with independent means
or with relatives able to support them. In 1930 there were about 180,000
immigrant aliens admitted and in 1931 only about 43,000. Offsetting
these arrivals were emigrant aliens leaving the United States, numbering
about 53,000 in 1930 and 89,000 in 1931. This outward movement has
always existed in a greater or lesser degree but it was probably accelerated
in these two years by the growing unemployment.
MILLIONS
3.0
Net
Dirt!
Immigration
Deaths01
1910 'II 'IZ '13 U '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 'ZO 'Zl 'ZZ -Z3 'Z4 75 'Z6 -Z7 Z8 '29 '30 1931
FIG. 18. — Annual births, deaths and net immigration for the total population, 1910-1931.°
0 Contains allowance for estimated number of births and deaths not registered.
6 The excess of aliens and citizens arriving in, over those departing from, continental United States.
c Preliminary estimates.
Considering the future trend in immigration, it is likely that with
an improvement of business conditions, arrivals will again exceed depar-
tures. If the improvement goes far enough, this net increase may reach
the quota limits for the European countries, and the levels of 1925-
1929 for Canada and Mexico, the main sources of non-quota immigration.
There is, however, the possibility that Congress may make further
changes in quota restrictions and may extend the system to countries
not now affected. The amount of immigration in the future, therefore,
depends so largely on the course of economic recovery and on congres-
sional action, that it is difficult to forecast with much assurance. The
[ 38 ]
POPULATION
temper of the nation appears to favor the severe restriction of immigra-
tion, and even the return of good times may not lead to a marked relaxa-
tion of such restrictions.
Births. — Fluctuations in births from year to year (Figure 18), while
not as violent as those in immigration, have had important effects on
population growth. From 1910 to 1918, there was a steady increase in
births from 2,542,000 to 2,834,000. They declined by 200,000 in 1919
and then rose to a maximum of 2,950,000 in 1921, the mobilization and
demobilization of a large army being chiefly responsible for the changes.
This high level was maintained to 1924 but since then there has been
a rapid and almost uninterrupted decline. Preliminary reports for 1931
indicate 2,445,000 births,29 which is 500,000 below the 1921 figure, and
even below that of 1910 when the population was smaller by 31,000,000
people. It is this drop in births, together with the restricted immigration
under the quota laws and public charge regulation, which have made the
population increase in 1931 less than half of what it was in 1913, 1920,
1921 and 1923, and only three-fifths of the average for 1910-1930, which
includes the abnormal year of 1918.
Is the decline in births, which has gone on since 1924, to be checked,
or is it likely to continue? The fact that there were about 125,000 fewer
births in 1931 than in 1930 is thought by some persons to be a result of
the business depression which began in the fall of 1929. Studies by
Hexter30 and others have indicated that the birth rate is affected by the
business situation. If this is true, conceptions should be less numerous
in 1931 than in 1930, and hence births fewer in 1932 than in 1931. It
seems probable, however, that the decline in 1931 is not due wholly to the
depression, but is in part a continuation of the previous downward
trend.
But even if the depression has exerted some downward pressure on
the number of births, it does not follow that the return of prosperity will
cause births to rise; for births were declining during the years 1925-
1928 when business conditions were generally thought to be improving.
Probably it is more correct to think that the return of good times may
gradually check the decline and cause relative stabilization somewhere
below the present level.
Births and Deaths by Race and Nativity. — Births and deaths may
be considered separately for native whites, foreign born whites and
Negroes after 1920. (Figure 19.) In this period there has been a slight
upward trend in the number of deaths, largest among Negroes and
29 The 1931 figures are preliminary estimates based on data from the vital statistics
offices of forty-one states, and are subject to change when complete reports on births by
race are issued by the Division of Vital Statistics, Bureau of the Census.
30 Hexter, Maurice Beck, Social Consequences of Business Cycles, Boston and New York,
1925, Chap. II.
[ 39 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
smallest among native whites. Immigration of Negroes is small,31 so what
has previously been said regarding total immigration applies almost
entirely to the foreign born white group. Considering births, the highest
point for native whites 32 was 2,583,000 in 1921, with a decline to about
2,130,000 in 1931. Negro births reached a maximum of 363,000 in 1926
(five years later than whites), and then declined to about 305,000 in
1931. This is a decline of more than one-seventh for both groups, but it
has been spread over ten years in the case of whites against five years
for Negroes.
I I I
iirths to Native White Women
I92O 1921
1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927
1929 I93O 1931
FIG. 19. — Births and deaths by race and nativity, 1920-1931. (Mexicans included with
whites.)
Birth Rates. — A better idea of why the number of births has fluctu-
ated in the past and of what the future course may be can be obtained
by considering birth rates. The simplest type of birth rate, called the
crude birth rate, is obtained by dividing total births by total population.
The crude birth rate increased from 26.6 in 1910 to a peak of 28.1 in 1914
and then declined until 1919, when the low point of 25.1 was reached
largely as a result of army mobilization. With demobilization, the rate
again rose, reaching 27.1 in 1921, since which year there has been a decline
31 The excess of Negroes entering the United States over those departing averaged
less than 1,100 annually from 1925 to 1931.
32 Births to foreign born mothers count as native births, the foreign born population
being kept up by immigration only.
[ 40 1
POPULATION
of over one-fourth to 19.7 in 1931. Because of the growth of population,
years of increasing births have shown smaller increases in crude birth
rates, while years of decreasing births have shown larger declines in
crude birth rates. Thus, the decline of about one-fourth in the birth rate
from 1921 to 1931 resulted from a decrease of less than one-sixth in the
number of births.
Crude birth rates are often misleading because they depend upon
the age and sex composition of the population. Most births occur to
women from 15-44 years of age, so that if one population differs from
another only in having a higher proportion of women in these ages, it
will have a correspondingly higher birth rate. Such difficulties may be
avoided by classifying births according to the age of the mother, for
example by dividing the number of births to women aged 20-24 by the
number of women of that age. The results give births by age of women
and are known as specific rates. They may be calculated only for years
near the census date, when the number of women of each age is known,
and for states which register births by age of mother. To ascertain the
recent trend, the period 1918-1921, with the census of January 1, 1920, in
the center, can be taken as a starting point. It includes 1919, a year of
low birth rates due to the mobilization of 1918 and earlier, and also 1921,
a year of high birth rates following demobilization, so the average should
be fair. The most recent period that can be used is 1928-1929, as the
tabulation of 1930 births by age of mother has not yet been published by
the Bureau of the Census (September, 1932). These births are divided by
the number of women in each age period on January 1, 1929, estimated
by interpolation between the 1920 and 1930 censuses.
Specific Birth Rates by Race and Nativity. — Comparing the specific
birth rates for 1928-1929 with those for 1918-1921, a marked downward
trend is found, as is shown in Figure 20. Native white, foreign born
white, and Negro women showed large declines in specific birth rates
and in each group the drop was greatest in the latter part of the child-
bearing period. Among native white women the birth rate in the 15-19
age group was almost unchanged, but at greater ages the decreases varied
from 11 percent at age 20-24 to 22 percent at ages 40-44. If the native
white birth rates at each age are weighted according to the total number
of women of that age in the 1930 census, and then averaged, the stand-
ardized birth rate is obtained. This rate fell 13 percent during the period.
Among foreign born white women, the specific birth rate at age 15-19
fell over one-fourth, while at greater ages the drop was about one-third.
These declines average more than twice as large as those of native whites.
Negro women maintained their standardized birth rate at a level nearer
that of 1918-1921 than foreign born white women and native white
women. There was an increase in the Negro rate at age 15-19, the only
F 41 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
increase shown in Figure 20. At age 20-24 the decline was smaller than
that of native white women but at greater ages it was larger.
That declines in specific birth rates were so much larger among foreign
born white women than among native whites or Negroes is probably
due chiefly to the Americanizing of the foreign born, a process that had
little counterpart among natives. Due to the smaller additions to the
foreign group in 1920-1930 because of the immigration restrictions, the
immigrant women in the 1930 population had spent more years in the
United States than those of the 1920 population. There had thus been
Births per NATIVE WHITE
,000 Women WOMEN01
ISO
1918-1921
1920-1929
60
Births per
1.000 women FOREIGN BORN WHITE NEGRO
200 r- WOMEN « WOMEN
200
50
15-19 20-Z4 25-39 3O-34 35-39 4O-44 15-19 2O-Z4 25-29 3O-34 35-39 4O-44
Age of Women Age of Women
FIG. 20.— Birth rates by age, race, and nativity of women, 1918-1921 and 1928-1929.*
<* Includes Mexicans, their births having been registered as white.
6 Calculated for the 1919 birth registration area (excluding Maine) according to method discussed in text.
more opportunity for them to shed the ideals and standards of the old
country, and to adopt those of American women.
Although the trend of specific birth rates can only be determined
accurately since about 1920, there is evidence that the decreases in this
period continue a decline which began much earlier. The ratio of children
0-4 to women 15-44, which may be obtained for each census since 1800,
is similar to an average of specific birth rates. This ratio has declined in
almost every decade since 1810 and in 1930 was less than 60 percent of
the 1850 level. (Figure 22.)
Substantiating this is a study made by the Milbank Memorial Fund
of the size of several thousand families in northern and western states.
[ 42 ]
POPULATION
The results indicate that from 1890 to 1910 the proportion of childless
and one child families increased from 28.0 percent to 39.4 percent in
the professional group, from 23.6 percent to 39.4 percent in the business
group, from 22.1 percent to 34.4 percent in the skilled labor group, from
16.8 percent to 31.2 percent in the unskilled labor group, and from 17.8
percent to 20.7 percent in the farm owner group.33 It is probable that
the proportion of small families has increased still more since 1910 and
that the tendency for small families to gain most rapidly in groups where
they were least numerous earlier has finally reached the farm owner
group.34 The omission from the last two census enumerations of the
questions bearing on this matter makes it impossible to bring the Milbank
study up to date.
It is the opinion of the authors that the increasing practice of con-
traception is the outstanding factor in the decline in birth rates. The
larger decreases in the rates in the older groups are just what one would
expect if the decline is due to voluntary control. In the great masses of
the laboring population older married couples who already have all the
children they can care for will almost certainly be at greater pains to
prevent additional conceptions than younger couples who are still child-
less or have only one or two children. But it would certainly be a mistake
for us to ignore other factors in reducing the birth rate which are con-
sidered of importance by those who are well informed about them. Thus
there are many competent physicians who believe that abortion is respon-
sible for much of the decline of the birth rate. Another factor is the increas-
ing failure of the reproductive system to function normally either because
of disease or because of modern modes of life. Much sterility, both com-
plete and partial, is thought to arise from disease (particularly venereal
disease), from the nervous strain of city life, from the sedentary habits of
many city dwellers, or from faults in diet attributable to the increasing
distance between the producer and consumer of food and more refined
modes of preparing it; in a word, from the general derangement of bodily
functions arising out of the changes incident to passing from an agricul-
tural to an industrial economy. Unfortunately, practically nothing is
known of the relative importance of these various factors; hence it is
inevitable that the social scientist, the physician and the biologist,
approaching the problem from different angles, should hold opinions
which are widely at variance.
Regional Variations in Birth Rates. — So far, the trends in specific
birth rates have been considered for the entire registration area of 1919.
The degree of change has varied considerably among the different states,
as may be seen from Figure 21, which presents the standardized birth
33 Notestein, Frank W., "The Decrease in Size of Families from 1890 to 1910," Quar-
terly Bulletin of the Milbank Memorial Fund, October, 1931, vol. IX, no. 4, pp. 181-188.
34 See data on size of family, Chap. XIII.
F 43 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
rate (the weighted average of the specific birth rates) for groups of states
having similar specific rates. In each group there was a decline in the
standardized rate for whites during the last decade and in two of the four
groups the Negro rate decreased. The native white standardized rate
declined least in New Hampshire and Vermont (4.7 percent), and most
in Utah (19.3 percent) and five southern states (19.5 percent). There was
£221918-1921
1 1920-1929
NATIVE WHITE WOMEN
FOREIGN BORN WHITE WOMEN01
NEGRO WOMEN b
BIRTH RATE
BIRTH RATE
BIRTH RATE
150
50
NEW HAMPSHIRE, VERMONT
CONNECTICUT. MASSACHUSETTS
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO, INDIANA, MICHIGAN. WISCONSIN. MINNESOTA. KANSAS
MARYLAND, VIRGINIA. NORTH CAROLINA .SOUTH CAROLINA. KENTUCKY
FIG. 21. — Standardized birth rates by race and nativity for groups of states, 1918-1921
and 1928-1929."
0 Includes Mexicans, their births having been registered as white.
6 Negro rates not shown for states having small Negro population.
e Calculated for the 1919 birth registration area (excluding Maine) according to method discussed in text.
a tendency for the decreases to be larger in states having higher rates in
1918-1921 and smaller in states having lower rates. The Pacific states
were the outstanding exception to this tendency, for their birth rate was
barely half that of Utah or five southern states, yet it decreased nearly
as rapidly.
Declines in the standardized birth rates of foreign born white women
were much larger than those of native white women in every group of
states. New Hampshire and Vermont again showed the smallest decline,
[44]
POPULATION
while the largest occurred in the Pacific states where the 1918-1921 rates
were lowest. With foreign born white birth rates there was little if any
tendency for the states with higher standardized rates in 1918-1921 to
show large decreases.
The largest decline in the standardized birth rate of Negro women
took place in the five southern states where the rate was highest in 1918-
1921. (Figure 21.) This is typical of the bulk of the Negro population,
since southern Negroes still outnumber northern Negroes by nearly
three to one. Not too much weight should be given to the increase in the
two northern areas because the makeup of their Negro population
in 1918-1921 probably was unusual because of the large northward
migration.
The relation of rural life to the trend of specific birth rates should be
noted. On the whole, the agricultural states had higher rates in 1918-1921
and larger declines since. This is what might be expected from the study
of the Milbank Memorial Fund, previously cited. It showed that the four
groups primarily urban (professional, business, and skilled and unskilled
labor) had somewhat lower birth rates than the rural group (farm owners)
in 1890 and suffered declines nearly twice as large from 1890 to 1910.
The rural rate was thus considerably above the urban in 1910, conse-
quently it would be expected to have the largest subsequent decrease.
Assuming that contraception is the chief means by which the decline
of the birth rate has been effected, the inference is inevitable that it was
practiced first among the professional and business classes, spread to
the skilled labor and unskilled labor groups and reached farmers and
country dwellers last. But after reaching them, the drop in rural birth
rates was the largest, rates of other groups having fallen previously.
The more rapid downward movement of native white specific birth
rates than of Negro rates during the past decade has cut heavily into
the differential in favor of native whites which formerly existed in most
parts of the United States. In 1918-1921 the standardized birth rate of
native white women was 8 percent higher than that of Negroes in the
five southern states (Figure 21), nearly 30 percent higher in the six
north central states, 21 percent higher in Pennsylvania and 4 percent
lower in Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York. By 1928-1929,
however, the white rate was 1 percent lower than the Negro rate in
Pennsylvania and the five southern states, 10 percent lower in Mass-
achusetts, Connecticut, and New York, and 11 percent higher in the
six north central states.35
36 This discussion is based on the specific rates in Figure 21, which include registered
births only. Since it is possible that non-registered births amount to as much as 5 to 10
percent of white births and 10 to 20 percent of Negro births, the Negro birth rates in 1918-
1921 may have been nearer the native white rates than Figure 21 indicates, and even above
them in 1928-1929.
[ 45 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Here again, the more rapid downward trends of native white than of
Negro specific birth rates is what would be anticipated if the practice of
contraception is the main immediate cause of fewer births. Regulation
of the size of families would be expected to start in the more educated
urban groups and to reach the less educated rural groups last of all. In
1930, 40 percent of the Negroes lived on farms compared with 25 percent
of the native whites and this relatively larger group of Negroes had
much poorer educational facilities. For these reasons they would be slower
in learning about birth control and in practicing it. But during some
future period, perhaps not far distant, the drop in the birth rate of rural
Negroes should be greater than that of native whites.
Estimating Future Population Growth. — At various places in this
chapter references have been made to the probable size and makeup of
the population in future years. Figures on annual births, deaths and
immigration furnish a base for estimating the immediate future, but if
the probable trend over a longer interval is desired a more complicated
method must be followed; though of course no mathematical formula can
forecast population growth with absolute accuracy, no matter how well
it may describe growth in past years.36
But even if the course of population growth cannot be foretold exactly,
it will be worth while to know what the population will be according to
certain assumptions as to immigration and specific birth and death rates,
assumptions that may seem reasonable judging from trends during
recent years. Estimates on several different assumptions have been
worked out by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Prob-
lems, two of which will be discussed here. These indicate up to 1980 the
limits between which the actual population probably will lie.
Minimum and Maximum Assumptions. — For the probable minimum
it is assumed that immigration of whites (excluding Mexicans) and Negroes
will be offset by emigration during 1930-1934 but that net immigration
will average 50,000 per year for whites and 800 for Negroes during 1935-
1939 and 100,000 per year for whites and 800 for Negroes thereafter. For
the probable maximum an average annual net immigration of 20,000 for
whites and 800 for Negroes during 1930-1934, 100,000 for whites and
1,600 for Negroes during 1935-1939, and 200,000 for whites and 1,600
for Negroes thereafter is assumed.
For the probable minimum it is assumed that white births (excluding
Mexicans) will average 2,100,000 and Negro births 300,000 annually
36 An /-shaped curve has been fitted to the past population of the United States by
Pearl and Reed, and prolonged to indicate the future population. To the authors, it seems
probable that these estimates will prove too high due to restricted immigration and lowered
birth rates. In fact, Pearl and Reed have shown that it may be necessary to join together
two /-shaped curves to fit the past where conditions of growth have changed sufficiently in a
country. There is no way now of telling whether or how soon a second curve may need to
be joined to the present curve for the United States in order to fit future growth.
r 46 1
POPULATION
during 1930-1934, which continues the decline of recent years. (Figure
19.) This will mean that the average specific birth rates in 1930-1934
will have declined from the 1925-1929 level by 9.6 percent for native
whites, 16.2 percent for foreign born whites and 8.0 percent for Negroes.
During subsequent years the decrease in birth rates is assumed to con-
tinue at a declining rate until a stationary condition is reached in 1970
at 67 percent of the 1930 level for native whites, 65 percent for foreign
born whites, and 64 percent for Negroes. (See Figure 20 for 1930 rates.)
KATIO OF
CHILDREN O-4
I.OOOI
900
800
700
CHILDREN TO WOMEN
PER I.OOO WOMEN 15-44
DEATH
RATE
600
Wh tes-
'v" Negroes
Death Rate-
Whites
^Death Rate-Negroes
Logarithmic Sca/a
30
I65O I860 1670 I88O I89O I9OO I9IO I9ZO I93O I94O I95O I960 I97O I98O
FIG. 22. — Past and possible future trends, by race, of ratio of children to women and of
death rates, 1850-1980.°
0 Based on expectation of life shown by selected Life Tables. Estimated for 1940 to 1980 according to
probable minimum assumptions.
The probable maximum assumes 2,150,000 white births and 305,000
Negro births annually during 1930-1934, with specific birth rates de-
creasing less rapidly than minimum rates. In 1945 these rates would
become stationary at 88 percent of the 1930 level for native whites, 82
percent for foreign born whites, and 86 percent for Negroes. An idea
of how the trend of the probable minimum compares with that of the last
several decades may be had by examining Figure 22, which is based on
the ratio of children 0-4 to women 15-44. The decline of this ratio has
been less than that of the birth rate, because of the lowering of infant
[ 47 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
mortality. Nevertheless, it is the only measure available for decades
before 1910, since few states then had birth registration.
The infant mortality rate for whites declined from 82.1 in 1920 to
60.2 in 1930 and for Negroes from 135.6 to 95.1. The probable minimum
assumes a further decline for whites (excluding Mexicans) to 55 in 1940
and to 52 in 1950 and for Negroes to 85 and 80, with small decreases
subsequently. The probable maximum assumes a decline for whites to 50
in 1940 and 45 in 1950, and for Negroes to 75 and 65, with small decreases
subsequently. The expectation of life of whites was 56.4 years in 1919 ac-
cording to the Foudray Life Tables and appears to have been lengthened
to almost 60 years in 1930. The probable minimum assumes the expecta-
tion of life for whites (excluding Mexicans) will gradually rise to 66 years
in 1970 and then remain at that figure. For Negroes, a weighted average
of the expectation of life in southern and northern states, as given in
the Foudray Life Tables for 1919-1920, was 45.3 years. An expectation
of life of 47.6 years in 1930 is assumed, rising to 54 years in 1970 and
then remaining stationary. The probable maximum assumes the expecta-
tion of life for whites will gradually rise to 73 years in 1980 and for Negroes
to 62 years. How the probable minimum assumption continues past
trends is approximately indicated by Figure 22.
The probable minimum assumes that "other colored" (including
Mexicans) will continue to amount to 1.67 percent of the white and
Negro races as they did in 1930. The probable maximum assumes that
"other colored" will rise to 2 percent of the white and Negro races in
1940, 2.5 percent in 1950, and finally to 4 percent in 1980.
Taking as a starting point the 1930 census population by age periods,
the deaths by age may be calculated by means of the estimated specific
death rates and the births to women at each age by means of the esti-
mated specific birth rates. Subtracting the estimates of deaths and
adding those of births and net immigration gives the population by age
periods one year later. By repeating the process it is possible to calculate
by age periods the population which will result in any future year if the
trends assumed for birth rates, death rates and immigration are actually
realized. (See Figure 16 for age composition in 1950.)
Probable Population after 1930. — The maximum and minimum
assumptions above described indicate a population between 132,500,-
000 and 134,500,000 in 1940, between 140,500,000 and 148,500,000 in
1950 and between 145,000,000 and 190,000,000 in 1980. According to
the minimum estimate, the population will reach its greatest size (approxi-
mately 146,000,000) between 1965 and 1970 and will subsequently
decline, while the maximum estimate indicates increases up to the
end of the century. It is believed by the authors, however, that the actual
population will be considerably nearer the minimum than the maximum
[ 48 ]
POPULATION
figure, especially by 1980. The birth rate has been declining in the United
States since 1810, hence it seems more likely that it will continue to de-
cline until 1970 rather than become stationary in 1945, as the maximum
assumes. Even according to the minimum assumption for birth rates in
1980, there will be about 195 births per hundred women who marry as
compared with 280 in 1930. This would make families average nearly
two children, which is far different from having all families childless,
the absolute extreme to which the birth rate can decline. For this reason,
references to future population in preceding sections37 are based on
weighted average of the maximum and minimum. Equal weights are
used in 1940 but the minimum is given increasing weight up to 75 percent
in 1980.
Considering the probability that the 1950 population will be between
140,500,000 and 148,500,000, it should be remembered that there is
little chance of error in saying that there will be about 96,000,000 sur-
vivors from the 1930 population in 1950. This number is obtained by
applying death rates to the 1930 population and allowing for emigration.
Death rates at ages over one year have changed but little in recent years,38
while emigration has averaged about 100,000 a year since 1920. The
remainder of the 1950 population will be made up of persons born here
or immigrating after 1930. These two movements cannot be foretold with
as much accuracy as the number of deaths, but together they will account
for only about one-third of the total.
Consequences of Slower Population Growth. — The consequences
upon our social and economic life of the slower population growth which
seems assured for the future are likely to be many. In the past there
has been a widespread belief that a rapidly growing population was one
of the essential conditions of general progress. While rapid growth of
population undoubtedly has contributed to past progress, the slowing up
of growth in the future need not be accompanied by gradual stagnation.
As a slower growth in population affects a larger and larger part
of the nation, one of the most important consequences is likely to be a
revaluation of the importance of growth. Changes should come to
be appraised in other than quantitative terms. It is impossible to foretell
the direction or the extent of the changes in mental outlook which will
ensue; but it may be hazarded that purely quantitative measurement
will bulk less large in a judgment of what constitutes progress and that
the quality of living will secure greater attention.
An immediate and practical influence of slower population growth
will probably manifest itself in efforts to adjust economic activity to
such growth. In all likelihood this adjustment will not be particularly
37 See Figures 1, 3, 16 and accompanying discussion.
38 See Chap. XII.
[ 49 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
difficult in most lines, once business men are fully convinced that popula-
tion growth will slacken and are able to estimate with fair accuracy the
population for five or ten years in advance. That this change in attitude
may not be easily effected is indicated by the fact that a population of
from 200,000,000 to 300,000,000 by the year 2000 is frequently assumed
by sales managers and executives. Just because the population in 1860
was eight times as large as in 1790, and in 1930 was four times as large
as in 1860, one is not justified in saying that in 2000 it will be twice as
large as in 1930.
Certain industries will face difficult and extensive problems in adjust-
ing to a slower population growth; these will be the ones most affected
by the probable future trends in population. They include industries in
which technical improvements are rapidly increasing human efficiency,
those in which consumption per capita is relatively inelastic, those in
which productive capacity is already largely in excess of effective demand
and those in which capital (including land) is relatively durable, non-
transferable and has a high value per unit of product.
Some industries, of which agriculture is an example, will be handi-
capped by a combination of several of these unfavorable factors. Farm
production has been over-expanded since the World War, efficiency has
increased rapidly, foods in general face an inelastic demand, and the
proportion of capital in land is high, as is also land value per unit of
product. Any policies for the utilization of farm land in the future must
give careful consideration to the probable growth of population if they
are to prevent the farm population from sinking to a low economic level.
There are other industries which seem directly dependent upon
population increase for their growth. These industries will feel the effects
of an approaching stationary population in proportion to the degree they
have a stable product or have already reached the saturation point. The
present radio may be replaced by an improved model at any time, but
the kitchen stove is usually kept until worn out. The point is that some
industries can expect to expand only as population grows, even if purchas-
ing power grows considerably.
On the other hand, there are many industries, probably producing the
majority of all industrial goods, whose growth is largely independent of
population increase. They could sell their product in much greater quan-
tity if the public had the money to buy it. To such industries raising the
per capita purchasing power of the public will be a vastly greater concern
as population growth is retarded. Making better customers of the popula-
tion at large may require raising wages and salaries, which may tem-
porarily reduce profits to some extent. But there will be less need to use
profits for increasing plant capacity until the increased purchasing power
of the bulk of the consumers has offset slower population growth. In
[50]
POPULATION
the future plant expansion should be based upon probable increase in the
purchasing power of the population rather than upon the belief that
population growth will soon overtake any expansion which available
capital makes possible.
It may be argued that even though the population of the United States
is growing slowly and may soon become practically stationary, industry
can continue to expand by increasing foreign trade. In the long run it
seems debatable if much relief can be found in this direction. In the first
place, population growth is slowing up in practically all of the countries
with which the United States trades on a large scale, and will soon be
stationary in many of them. Secondly, all other industrial nations are
competing more and more strenuously for such trade. Finally, the tend-
ency to raise tariff barriers, which still shows no sign of abatement, handi-
caps international trade. The slower growth of population is not the sole
or even the chief factor in rendering more serious the economic difficulties
into which the country has drifted. But it does seem to merit careful
consideration in future planning for the rationalization of social and
economic life.
VI. POPULATION POLICY
Early Encouragement of Growth. — It is not difficult to show that,
consciously or unconsciously, the United States has had a population
policy from a relatively early date. From the time when settlement first
took place most communities wanted people, partly to increase the
safety of life and property and partly because of the effect on land values.
Most of the individuals and companies who received large grants of
land, or were able to purchase it cheaply from public authorities, made
efforts to have their lands occupied. It is well known, for example, that
William Penn made strenuous efforts to get settlers on his grant and that
at times his success was sufficient to incur the dislike of men in other
communities who felt that he was using unfair means to attract people
to his domains.
Because of such interest the settlement of the land was encouraged
in a variety of ways. The land policy provided free or cheap land in farm
units to foreigners as well as natives if they would settle and work it.
Immigration policies permitted easy entry, offered political asylum and
allowed the importation of slaves for a time. Political leaders spread
the idea that here the common man had opportunities never before open
to him. Immigrants came in great numbers and the surplus youth in
the east moved westward in a steady stream. By about 1890 the actual
settlement of the land was almost completed; but since the industrial
development of the country was also well under way by that time, there
was still need for immigrants. The steamship companies and other
[ 51 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
interests which profited by immigration saw to it that the advantages
of coming to the United States were well advertised. The policy of the
"open door'* was a huge success in peopling the land.
Gradual Restriction of Immigration. — Although public encourage-
ment of immigration was generally accepted, there have always been
those who felt that the "new" immigrants were inferior and that some-
thing should be done to preserve the economic advantages of the country
for the descendants of early arrivals. Nevertheless, it was not until about
fifty years ago that active steps were taken to close the door to "unde-
sirable" groups other than criminals or those afflicted with certain diseases.
In 1882, partly as a consequence of racial troubles in the west, the first
Chinese Exclusion Act was passed. In 1885, under pressure of organized
labor, the Alien Contract Labor Law was passed. This forbade the
entrance of foreigners under contract to individuals or firms and was
intended to prevent employers from breaking strikes and undercutting
wages by using cheap labor recruited by agents in foreign countries.
These early acts clearly indicate that, under certain circumstances, an
increase of numbers was not considered the highest good by all groups.
Step by step federal policy has thus gone from the one extreme of
stimulating immigration to the opposite extreme. The exhaustion of
desirable free land put an end to the public encouragement of agricultural
immigrants. More drastic is the present policy, which assigns to each
country in the Eastern Hemisphere an annual immigration quota.39
The various quota laws in effect since June 3, 1921, also represent an
effort to influence the makeup of the population to preserve the composi-
tion attained before the arrival of the millions of eastern and southern
Europeans who came during the present century. The quotas in effect
since July 1, 1929, are based upon the proportions of the population
springing from the different national stocks, and definitely favor northern
and western Europeans. Quotas have not yet been applied to Canada
and Latin America but may be applied in the future. The open door
policy of the past is completely abandoned; not only are numbers re-
stricted but there is definite selection as to kind.
Supplementing the quota laws are various administrative regulations.
Those providing for the deportation of aliens who have entered illegally
have been vigorously enforced in recent years, resulting in thousands of
expulsions plus a large but unknown number of departures caused by
fear of deportation. A more drastic influence in restricting immigration
has been the regulation in force since the latter part of 1930 under which a
visa is denied to a prospective immigrant if it is believed that he may
become a public charge. This practically excludes aliens without jobs
(unless wealthy), while the Alien Contract Labor Law excludes aliens
?9 NO immigration of Orientals ineligible for citizenship is allowed.
[ 52 ]
POPULATION
with jobs. As a result, the stream of immigration has been reversed, and
since November, 1930, more aliens have been leaving the United States
than have been entering.
Changing Attitude Toward Large Families. — The same attitudes
of mind which counted unrestricted immigration as a good also en-
couraged the raising of large families. Furthermore, large families were of
direct advantage to much of the population. Farmers with several sons
were assured of a steady labor supply with little or no wage payment,
while other workingmen had augmented family incomes if several minor
children were at work. Besides, having numerous children was probably the
most certain form of insuring old age security in a pioneering community.
The general attitude toward birth control and large families which
prevailed prior to 1870 may be illustrated by an incident which occurred
in 1832. At that time Charles Knowlton wrote a little pamphlet (published
in New York City) entitled Fruits of Philosophy; or the Private Companion
of Young Married People in which he advocated contraception and
described some of the methods by which it might be accomplished. This
was considered an offense against public morality, and Knowlton was
punished by fine and imprisonment.
There is little to record regarding the birth control movement between
Knowlton's time and 1873 when Congress passed the so-called Comstock
Laws "for the suppression of trade in, and circulation of obscene litera-
ture and articles of immoral use," which in effect outlawed information
about practices and devices for preventing conceptions. The passage of
these laws would seem to be evidence that birth control was becoming
sufficiently common to attract the attention of those who were opposed
to it, on whatever grounds. In more recent years, particularly since
Margaret Sanger attempted to open a birth control clinic in 1916, there
has been considerable legal conflict between those who believe that man
has the right to control his family numbers and those who believe that
such control is harmful from a moral, national or personal point of view.
However, there is increasing opposition to measures which interfere with
the individual control of the size of the family. Between the mild enforce-
ment of restrictive laws by public authorities and the general disregard
of them by individuals, these laws are of little consequence at present.
In this connection it should be noted that birth control legislation
undoubtedly has had some effect upon the sources of growth in the popu-
lation. Had no restrictions been placed on the spread of birth control
information and had clinics been permitted to function freely, it is prob-
able that birth control would have spread more evenly through social
classes and that the decline in the birth rate among poorer and less edu-
cated people would have been more closely comparable with the decline
among the better educated and the well to do. (See pages 42 and 43.)
f 53 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Laws against the wilful inducing of abortion have long been on the
statute books and have been fairly successful in keeping down the
number of abortions. Nevertheless, it is the opinion of many persons
in a position to know that countless thousands of abortions are brought
about in the United States each year, with a restricting effect on
population growth.
There are certain other laws which also exert some influence upon
population growth, although they were not passed with any thought of
doing so. Thus the laws governing child labor and compulsory school
attendance have little by little reduced the economic value of children
to their parents.40 Working in the opposite direction, but of far less
potency, are free child health clinics, free lunches in schools and income
tax exemptions according to the number of dependent children.
Need of a Well Thought Out Policy. — The net result of these conflict-
ing tendencies is a large measure of restriction of population growth based
upon the belief that life will be more desirable if numbers are limited in
accordance with means of support. But since this restriction is more or
less haphazard in operation, it would seem desirable that more thought
should be given to a conscious and deliberate population policy for the
future. Otherwise the present methods of restriction may result in neither
the most desirable quantity nor the best possible quality.
Regulation of Numbers. — The optimum size of population is a highly
controversial topic. Militarists have always believed that a large and
rapidly growing population is desirable, while many religious groups and
ethical teachers have held the same view, though from quite different
motives. On the other hand, there have always been individuals who
believe that personal development and the service of God and man are
better performed by those having few or no children; and today there is
a rapidly growing body of persons who are convinced that the population
should be adjusted to the economic resources available for its support.
There is no immediate prospect of reconciling these divergent views; but
assuming that this can be done, attention will be turned for a moment to
the means by which a given population might be achieved.
It seems probable that numbers can be kept as low as the community
may deem expedient, since immigration is proving to be susceptible of
exact regulation and since it will require but little improvement in present
methods of contraception to enable man to exercise almost complete
control over births. It is true, however, that many people have political,
religious or personal scruples against limiting their families and that
there are individuals mentally inferior and diseased who do not practice
birth control because they have no interest either in their ability to pro-
vide for their children or in the quality of their descendants.
40 For discussion of child labor, see Chap. XV.
[ 54 ]
POPULATION
But if a continued decline in the birth rate is a desired end, it seems
that the present mode of life can be little improved upon. The penaliza-
tion of parenthood by various social and economic handicaps such as the
lack of distinction in wages between those who bring up children and
those who do not, the premium placed upon devotion to business, the
exclusion of persons with children from many desirable apartments and
houses, and many other factors which discriminate against the man and
woman who devote any considerable time and energy to their children;
the growing concentration of population in cities and the increasing
apartment house and restaurant existence of city populations; the pity
lavished by their more "emancipated sisters" upon women who rear
families rather than devote themselves to business, lectures, travel and
bridge; and the desperate struggle of many of the white collar workers
to "keep up with the Joneses" — all these encourage the restriction of
births.
If a larger and a more native population is wanted, the most helpful
measures probably would be to continue present immigration restrictions
and, at the same time, to make it economically easier to rear more chil-
dren. Maternity allowances and tax exemptions graduated to the size of
the family, not too stringent regulation of school attendance and child
labor, preference in employment for fathers of families of the size deemed
desirable, are the types of economic benefits which might be set up. The
experience of France with similar measures has not been encouraging,
but her efforts appear only half-hearted, since the economic burden upon
parents of large families has not been greatly reduced.
In addition, social attitudes toward the bearing and rearing of children
are of great importance. Little is known as yet of methods by which these
attitudes can be controlled; but if it could be made fashionable to have
four to five children per family, the effect on the birth rate would probably
be greater than that which could be secured in almost any other way.
Improvement of Quality. — A good many students of population, as
well as the eugenists, are convinced that the differential birth rate, in
addition to causing undesirable social effects, has already resulted in
some deterioration in the biological soundness of the national stock.
There is reason to believe that they exaggerate the biological conse-
quences; nevertheless, it seems clear that no population policy can be
considered comprehensive which does not take into account the fact that
there are native differences between individuals and that as soon as any
agreement can be reached about the methods by which "undesirables"
can be selected from the population, they should be prevented from
propagating. In the present state of knowledge there is bound to be
violent disagreement as to those who are biologically "undesirable";
hence, progress in their elimination will be slow. But eugenic sterilization
[ 55 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
laws and the segregation of certain groups of the mentally incompetent
are making headway; and a national population policy would be inade-
quate which did not include plans for increasing the effectiveness of
sound efforts to prevent births among the unfit.41
Those interested in improving the quality of the population are by
no means satisfied with eliminating the unfit. They hold that it is also
essential to encourage the increase of the "desirable." Important as this
may be, it appears that little can be done about it at present. There is
now the widest possible divergence of views regarding those who are
desirable, how they are to be mated and how encouraged to raise families
larger than the average. Suffice it to say that any general population
policy should make provision for sufficient biological education to insure
appreciation of the problems involved in mating and sufficient civic educa-
tion to make people appreciate the importance of participating in the
continuing life of the community through their children. Any positive
encouragement of good stock beyond such education and the equalization
of economic conditions between those who do and those who do not raise
families, seems inadvisable until more is known about the inheritance of
human traits.
The population policy of the future will have to be woven out of these
factors and others now unforeseen and will have to be determined in the
give and take of everyday life, as is the case with other important national
policies. It is not likely that the best possible policy will be hit upon at
once, but this should not deter the nation from making a conscious and
determined effort to control population growth, both quantitative and
qualitative. The quantitative goal may well be to adjust numbers to
national means so that a high standard of living can be maintained and
the qualitative goal to forestall the increase of undesirable stock and
stimulate that of desirable stock within the quantitative limits.
VII. SUMMARY
The growth of population in the United States has been great and
continuous. The decennial rate of increase, however, has been declining
since about 1860 and the annual increase in numbers has fallen steadily
and rapidly since 1923.
For more than a century prior to 1930 the white race was growing
faster than the Negro and until 1920 constituted a steadily increasing
proportion of the nation's population. From 1920 to 1930, however, the
colored races as a whole (including the Mexican) increased somewhat
faster than the white race. The foreign born white population, which had
remained a fairly constant proportion of the total for several decades,
41 On sterilization laws in the several states, see Chap. XXIV.
[ 56 ]
POPULATION
has shown almost no numerical growth since 1910 and constitutes a
declining proportion of the total.
In recent decades a large part of the increase in population has
gone to the cities or their suburbs. There has been a total increase
of only about four millions in the rural population since 1910 and
nearly all of this is found in the non-farm rural group. The farm
population actually decreased by about one and one-fourth millions
between 1920 and 1930.
The places of most rapid growth in the United States from 1920 to
1930 are those metropolitan districts where commerce and industry have
grown rapidly, and Florida and California where the mild climate has
proved a strong attraction.
Until the World War our white population was becoming increasingly
diversified in national origins, the proportions from Italy, Russia, Poland,
Czechoslovakia and Mexico increasing rapidly between 1900 and 1915.
Since 1921 the quota laws have not only diminished immigration in
amount but have so altered its character that the white population bids
fair to remain relatively unchanged in national origins in the future or to
consist of a slowly increasing proportion from northern and western
Europe.
One of the most important trends in our growth is toward an older
population with a decline in the proportion of persons under 20. This
arises in part from the restriction of immigration and in part from the
fact that the total number of births has declined in recent years while the
number of persons in the older groups is rising rapidly due to the large
increases in the number of births in the nineteenth century. As a con-
sequence there will be almost a 50 percent increase in the proportion of
persons over 65 during the next twenty years and about a 25 percent
increase in the proportion 45-64. The proportion in the most productive
ages will increase slightly. Such age changes are likely to produce signifi-
cant consequences in our schools, in our business, in our politics and in
our social structure.
The growth of population in the future is certain to be much slower
than in the past. Although death rates have fallen somewhat, particularly
at younger ages, these savings have been much more than offset by
decreases in birth rates. Decreases have been much larger in the later
part of the childbearing period than the earlier part, among foreign born
white women than among native white or Negro women and in rural than
in urban areas. The continuation of these trends together with the restric-
tion of immigration will result in a net addition to the population from
1930 to 1950 of about the same size as that from 1920 to 1930. After
1950 growth will be slower. It is even possible that the population will
begin to decline after reaching approximately 146,000,000 in 1970.
[ 57 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
An increasing number of persons believe that the time has come to
consider carefully a policy for the future. They believe that population
growth should be consciously controlled in the interests of all the people.
This will mean an effort to adjust numbers to the means available for
their support so that a high standard of living can be maintained. It
will also involve more careful selection of immigrants, the development of
means of preventing the propagation of "the unfit" and in time, perhaps,
methods for encouraging the propagation of "the fit" to the end that the
quality of the stock may be improved.
58
CHAPTER II
UTILIZATION OF NATURAL WEALTH
Part 1.— MINERAL AND POWER RESOURCES
BY F. G. TBYON AND MARGARET H. SCHOENFELD
FROM problems of population the study of social trends turns to
those of the utilization of natural wealth — the ways in which we
exploit our minerals, power resources and agricultural and forest
lands, with their effect upon American standards of life. Here we shall
note that population changes have already affected the condition and
outlook of agriculture, and that technological improvements have made
profound alterations in the efficiency with which we use land, minerals
and power.
The abundance and richness of natural resources have helped to
shape the pattern of American culture since colonial times. Their social
effects have been most immediately registered in the economic life of the
country and through it, in the national standard of living. Foreign
observers from de Tocqueville to Andre Siegfried have remarked upon the
rich resources of the American continent and it is generally agreed that
the high productivity of our population and the high per capita consump-
tion which it makes possible have been facilitated by an exceptionally
generous natural endowment.
In an effort to state more clearly the place of natural resources in the
American economic system the authors have compared the physical
heritage of the United States with that of other countries, particularly
those in western Europe, and have shown how often the high productivity
of the American worker is correlated with some natural advantage.
Sometimes the advantage is one of quality, as in the coal and copper
mines. Sometimes it is one of quantity, as in the more opulent ratio
of agricultural land to population which prevails in the United States.
This study of resources and productivity, however, has proved too long to
be included here.
In the present chapter, therefore, it will be assumed that wealth of
resources is a national advantage with no attempt to evaluate that
advantage. Our concern will rather be with the trends of utilization and
with the adequacy of the resources to meet the needs of the present
and the calculable future. Men are prone to think of resources as some-
[59]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
thing fixed. In point of fact they change, though slowly. The minerals are
gradually exhausted; the fisheries may decline; the virgin stand of timber
disappears in time; the soils are being depleted, or perhaps more signifi-
cant, the ratio of population to the land available may change. How far,
then, is our original endowment dissipated, and what are the prospects
for the future? Can the limited resources of fuel and metal continue to
meet the burden of an increasing demand? Will there be land enough to
feed our people, or is population destined to press harder on the means of
subsistence ? The nation is passing out of the pioneer stage of exploitation.
Does the transition cast a shadow on the future? And how is American
society adjusting itself to the change?
I. THE INCREASING DRAFTS UPON THE MINERALS
American economic life has been characterized by a rapid increase in
the consumption of the earth materials until the United States has come
to use metal and power on a scale attained by no other country. From
1860 to 1913 the population increased threefold while production of pig
iron increased 38 fold; of coal 39 fold; of the total mineral fuels 44 fold;
and of copper 76 fold. In fact, consumption in the twenty years ending
1929 was greater by far than in the entire three hundred from the landing
of Captain John Smith in 1607 to the Jamestown Exposition. The rate
of increase has slowed down since the war and there is reason to think
that it will be less rapid in the future, but discussion of this point can best
be postponed to a later section. Here it is enough to note that in the min-
eral fuels, in iron and in the non-ferrous metals, our per capita consump-
tion is far higher than that of the highly industrialized United Kingdom.
It is twice or thrice that of France and Germany and five or ten times
that of Italy and Spain.
Growth of Mining Compared to Agriculture, Manufactures and Trans-
port.— While all branches of business have tended to grow rapidly in the
United States, the mineral industries have developed faster than any
other major division, far outstripping agriculture and exceeding even the
growth of manufactures and rail transport. The broad changes are
summarized in Table 1. From 1899 to 1929 population increased 62
percent. Agricultural production expanded in slightly less degree, the
increase amounting to about 48 percent. (See Table 1, footnote a.) The
physical volume of manufactures, on the other hand, increased 210
percent. The volume of railroad freight handled advanced still more.
But the volume of mineral production nearly quadrupled, the increase in
the 30 year period amounting to 286 percent.
The growth of mining furnished the sinews of power and metal
necessary for the expansion of other forms of industry. The contribution
of the mines is shown by the expanding use of power. The consumption of
[ 60 1
NATURAL WEALTH
raw energy increased 230 percent during the period. This figure, however,
does not give the full measure of the expansion of power, because it takes
no account of the great improvements in efficiency of fuel utilization
which marked the period. Thus the increase in the power equipment of the
country — installed horse power of all types except passenger automobiles
— was 536 percent. If passenger automobiles are included, the growth of
power equipment is found to be 2,510 percent. The figures of horse power
have to be discounted with some regard to the low use factor characteristic
of many types of prime movers, especially of automobiles. The increase in
the amount of power actually generated cannot be measured precisely, but
it evidently lies somewhere between the 230 percent shown by the
consumption of energy materials and the 2,510 percent shown by the
installed horse power. In either case, it is clear that the use of power and of
heat energy in the United States has expanded in the last generation in
greater ratio than the production of goods.1 This simple fact throws a
flood of light on the increase in output per worker so characteristic of
the period.
TABLE 1. — How THE GROWTH OF MINERAL PRODUCTION FROM 1899 TO 1929 COMPARES
WITH THAT OF POPULATION, AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURES AND RAIL TRANSPORT
Item
Index in 1899
Index in 1929
Population
100
162
Physical volume of production:
Agriculture0
100
148
Manufactures6
Transportation, railroad ton miles
100
100
310
338
Mining0
100
386
Energy consumption (mineral fuels and water power)"*
100
330
Horse power equipment:*
Excluding all automobiles
100
385
100
636
Including all automobiles
100
2 610
0 Index of O. E. Baker, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Includes animal products, plant foodstuffs, and
industrial crops. Base equals the average for the five years 1897 to 1901, centering on 1899. Value shown for
1929 represents the average for the five years 1927 to 1931. The base period, 1897-1901, was one of exceptional
opulence. In these years the ratio of agricultural production to population was the highest in the nation's
history; exports of farm products were also the largest.
6 Index of Edmund E. Day and Woodlief Thomas extended through 1929 by reference to Federal Reserve
Board Index.
e Index of Harvard Committee on Economic Research extended through 1929 by reference to Federal
Reserve Board index.
d F. G. Tryon, "An Index of Consumption of Fuels and Water Power," Journal of the American Statistical
Association, September 1927, vol. 22, p. 282.
« U. S. Geological Survey, C. R. Daugherty, The Development of Horsepower Equipment in the United States,
Water Supply Paper 579, pp. 11, 45. Dr. Daugherty has computed the values for 1929 for the use of the Presi-
dent's Committee and permits them to be included here in advance of other publication.
Compare with Chap. V.
61]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
INDEX NUMBERS -AVERAGE FOR IO YEARS I9OI - 19 1 0 = I OO
700
PHOSPHATE
400L & GYPSUM
FIG. 1. — Index number of growth of production of the principal minerals and water power,
1881-1930.
As a group, production of the minerals has been increasing very rapidly, far outstripping the growth of
population. There are, however, signs of retardation in the rate of growth of some of the most important min-
erals, such as bituminous coal and pig iron and an actual decline in production of anthracite, gold, and silver.
For the group as a whole, the outlook is for continued increase, but at a gradually diminishing rate.
Based on data in annual reports in Mineral Resources of the United States except for natural gas, water
power, and total energy, which are based on original studies by F. G. Tryon.
NATURAL WEALTH
Signs of Slackening Growth. — It is inconceivable that the geometric
increase which characterized the consumption of minerals up to the World
War could continue indefinitely, and to the careful observer there are
already signs of diminution in the rate of growth. Production of some of
the minerals, however, continues to increase rapidly. (Figure 1.) Con-
spicuous among this group are oil, gas and sulphur. A few others, such as
gold, silver and anthracite, show an actual decline.2 Still others, though
not past the stage of growth, show very definite retardation. Thus the
growth of bituminous coal has been checked by the competition of other
sources of power and by advances in fuel efficiency, while the growth of
virgin pig iron is slowed down by economies in use and by the increasing
employment of scrap.
That the tendencies thus noted in coal and iron will later appear in
the other minerals seems only a matter of time. For the group as a whole,
the prospect is one of increase, but at a diminishing rate. The tendencies
are strengthened by the impending changes in population growth dis-
cussed in the preceding chapter. While per capita consumption has greatly
expanded and will doubtless expand still further, no small part of the
aggregate increase has been due to the simple fact of population growth,
and the change from increasing to stationary or declining numbers, which
statisticians now forecast, will modify the demand for the minerals.
Such a slowing down of the former growth of demand accentuates the
troublesome problem of production control, which is so clearly illustrated
by the present position of coal mining. From the long time viewpoint
of conservation, however, it is a hopeful sign, for the greatest of all social
problems in the use of the minerals is how to reconcile an insistent demand
with the obvious limitations of reserves.
II. OVERCOMING THE GROWING DIFFICULTIES OF MINING
Up to the present the necessary increments of metal and of power
have been supplied to American industry at decreasing cost. This result
has been attained in spite of the growing difficulties of mining caused by
depletion of the richer deposits.
When the nation began to be conscious, about the turn of the century,
that the minerals were not inexhaustible, public apprehension took the
form of imagining what it would be like to have no coal or no metal. Then,
when no shortage developed and there came instead a period of over-
production, a reaction set in, expressed in the idea that the cry of con-
servation had been a cry of "Wolf!". It is now clear that the problem
of conservation of the minerals is not absolute exhaustion at some distant
2 The sharp decline of gold production after 1915 was, of course, due in large measure
to the inflation accompanying the World War and the resulting advance in commodity
prices and wages. Similarly, the decline of silver production is largely due to changes in
currency systems.
[ 63 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
date but rather increasing cost in the near future through the growing
difficulties of mining. We need not fear that mineral species may become
extinct as the passenger pigeon did. The danger that confronts us is
rather a handicap resulting from exhaustion of the more accessible de-
posits and the consequent tendency toward diminishing returns and
higher prices.
The Struggle against Increasing Costs. — The history of mineral
exploitation is a record of a struggle against increasing natural diffi-
culties. It is a commonplace that the richer and more accessible of the
known deposits are attacked first. As these are exhausted, operations
proceed to poorer and less accessible deposits, and the physical conditions
become progressively more difficult. For a while these may be offset by
more efficient management, but there comes a time when with the best
of management the old mine cannot compete. What happens to a single
mine happens also in time to an entire district. For a while operators
move on to new locations in the same field, little, if any, inferior to the
first. But at length the easier locations have been used up and subsequent
operations must be in leaner ores and thinner beds at greater depth.
Discovery of new bodies of rich ore may interrupt the process, but other-
wise the natural obstacles increase year by year, and in time the whole
district finds itself in the stage of increasing costs. That is the ultimate
fate of mining enterprise.
The anthracite district of Pennsylvania is an excellent example of
this tendency. Mining has been going on there for 125 years and the
reserves are sufficient to last for another 125 at the present rate of pro-
duction. The district has therefore entered the stage of maturity in the
production cycle and natural conditions have been growing steadily
more difficult for the last half century. The average thickness of the
beds has fallen, the depth has greatly increased and, what is even more
serious, many of the collieries have passed from first mining to second or
even third mining of pillars and stumps. These increasing difficulties have
swallowed up all of the economies due to advances in mining methods and
equipment (which have been notable in the anthracite mines), and the
output per man per day is actually less than it was a generation ago.3
Production costs are increasing and this handicaps the industry in com-
peting with other fuels.
This ominous record of steadily growing difficulties reflected in in-
creasing costs can be matched in thousands of individual mines and
scores of districts around the world. In England the condition is general
and no small part of the present economic troubles of the British is due
to the unequal competition between a land in the stage of increasing
3 D. C. Ashmead, series of eight articles on the increasing difficulty of mining anthracite,
Coal Age, 1923, vol. 23, p. 323 f., 475 f., 551 f ., 749 f., 850 f., 885 f., 999 f., and 1041 f.
f 64 1
NATURAL WEALTH
costs of mining and n.ewer lands where costs are still being reduced. The
tendency of natural conditions to grow more difficult is universal, but
it is often counterbalanced by other tendencies in the opposite direction —
the discovery of new deposits, the expansion of transport which opens up
deposits hitherto inaccessible, and the improvement of technology.
Mineral economics is the record of a battle, a battle between the growing
difficulties of nature on the one hand and discovery, transport and tech-
nology on the other. How does the battle fare? Taking the country as a
whole, which side is winning, the natural conditions tending to increase
costs or the man directed forces tending to reduce them ?
Discovery of New Deposits. — First among the factors offsetting the
tendency toward diminishing returns is the discovery of new deposits.
In the United States the factor of discovery was exceedingly influential
during the nineteenth century, and to it the increasing supply of minerals
was largely due. As in other countries, the period of maximum activity
in exploration followed on the heels of settlement. The wave of discovery
reached its crest in the thirty years following the California gold rush
and by the end of the century the great finds possible through surface
prospecting had largely been made.
Among the metals, no prizes comparable with Butte or the Comstock
Lode have been found in the continental United States in the last quarter
century. In almost every district, applied geology has developed large
additions to the reserves, but the original discovery was made by a
bearded prospector equipped with pick and burro. Of the 33 leading dis-
tricts producing gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc and even iron, only 5 have
been found since 1900 and none at all since 1907. In Europe and Austral-
asia, also, the day of brilliant success in surface prospecting seems over.
In just two regions of the world is anything like the wave of discoveries
which followed the California gold rush now going on — in Africa, espe-
cially Rhodesia and the Congo, and in northern Canada.
Discovery, however, continues to make large contributions to the
supply of those minerals which the old time prospector could not see or
whose value he did not know. Economic geology has developed elaborate
techniques in the search for oil and gas and discoveries of new pools have
followed one another with embarrassing frequency. Most of the bauxite
of the south has been blocked out since 1900. New beds of sulphur have
been found in the salt domes of the Gulf Coast. The world's richest borax
deposits were discovered largely by accident in 1913 and 1927. Supplies
of helium gas were first located in volume after the war and the last
three years have witnessed the discovery of potash deposits in the south-
west which may prove among the great mineral prizes of the world.
The character of the recent finds illustrates both the possibilities
and the limitations of discovery in the future. The things of obvious
[ 65 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
value which outcrop on the surface have probably been found. The chance
of stumbling on more Buttes and Cripple Creeks is small. The search for
minerals must now be organized on a, large and costly scale. Even applied
geology is fast exhausting the easy possibilities of surface prospecting
and future rewards of organized search depend largely on the develop-
ment of new methods for locating supplies which give no surface expres-
sion of their presence. A new science of geophysical or subsurface
prospecting, relying on delicate electrical and physical instruments,
offers possibilities. In the search for oil, gas and sulphur on the Gulf
Coast the new methods have yielded striking successes. Elsewhere they
have hardly passed the experimental stage. It seems likely that the cost
of exploration will increase and that future discoveries will consist more
in the extension of the boundaries of known deposits than in the location
of new ones. The nineteenth century was the age of dazzling discovery;
in the twentieth the battle against increasing costs must fall more heavily
upon the factors of transport and technology.
Expansion of Transport Facilities. — The second offsetting factor in
the battle against increasing costs is transportation which frequently
brings into use deposits already known but hitherto inaccessible. The
classic example is the opening of the transcontinental railroads. Many
of the western mining districts, first worked for placer gold, were known
to contain the baser metals, but not until rail transport was provided
could large scale exploitation of them begin. With rail connections estab-
lished after 1870, a stream of non-ferrous metal poured upon the markets
of the world, the effects of which are clearly apparent in contemporary
records of increasing production and declining price. Many low grade
deposits exist today, awaiting the coming of the railway to give them
value. As late as 1914 when roads like the Louisville and Nashville and
Chesapeake and Ohio pushed their way through the southern mountains
they opened up coal fields known to exist but previously inaccessible.
Canal and river transport on the other hand have had little effect on
availability of minerals in the United States, with the notable exception
of the Panama Canal, the completion of which made accessible to the
east the great supplies of petroleum in California; indeed, the unfore-
seen development of the traffic in oil has provided the canal's largest
source of revenue. Electric transmission is not ordinarily thought of as a
form of transport but the rise of high tension transmission lines is in
fact a means of utilizing remote resources of water power and in some
instances of fuel as well.
In our own time the growth of automotive transport is acting to
increase available supplies of minerals although on a much smaller scale
than was characteristic of the railroads. Better roads and cheaper trucks
make available scattered deposits too small to justify rail construction.
[66]
NATURAL WEALTH
Even low value materials, such as coal, now move distances as great as
100 miles by truck.
One of the most striking examples of expansion of transport in recent
years is the growth of long distance pipe lines. Reductions in the cost of
manufacturing and laying pipe are the immediate cause of the spectacular
growth. Trunk pipe lines originating in the southwest now extend more
than a thousand miles to the industrial centers of the upper Mississippi
Valley. This development makes available enormous amounts of natural
gas, the existence of which was known but for which no adequate outlet
was at hand.
Advance of Mining Technology. — As the earth's surface is prospected
and the network of primary transport facilities is pushed nearer to com-
pletion, the potential help of discovery and transportation in cost reduc-
tion become less and the burden of overcoming the increasing difficulties
of mining falls more and more upon technology. Both discovery and
transport have been less active in the twentieth century while technologic
advance has proceeded at a pace which was never more rapid than at the
present time. Technology has affected the supply of minerals both by
advances in the art of mining and by increasing the efficiency of utiliza-
tion which sometimes comes through economies in the recovery and use
of by-products and sometimes through the development of substitutes.
Mechanization of the Mines. — Running through all branches of mining
is the tendency to replace hand by machine labor. It can be most clearly
illustrated by reference to the coal mines. Steam and compressed air
have given way to electric power. Haulage underground is largely elec-
trified and even in the gathering of single cars in rooms the mine mule is
rapidly yielding to the faster and more powerful electric locomotive.
Use of the cutting machine has almost entirely displaced the old time hand
methods by which the miner undercut the seam, and even the cheap
though wasteful and dangerous method of "shooting off the solid" is
giving way, so that 80 percent of the underground tonnage is now cut
mechanically. In another major task of the miner, the drilling of shot
holes, portable electric drills are being used. Until recently the back
breaking labor of shoveling the coal from the floor to the mine car resisted
all efforts at mechanization. This last stand of heavy labor is now yielding.
Machines in great variety — loading machines, power shovels, scrapers,
"duckbills" and moving conveyors — are available for this task, and from
1,880,000 tons in 1923 the tonnage mechanically loaded has risen to
47,000,000 in 1930, with further rapid increase assured. The progress of
mechanization underground is paralleled by the advances in open pit
mining on the surface, where huge power shovels with a capacity of 15
yards to the bite now handle an overburden of 60 feet of dirt and rock
to win a 6 foot seam of coal.
[ 67 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Mass Mining of Low Grade Ores. — Parallel to mechanization have been
advances in the art of handling ground, the peculiar province of the
mining engineer. These are best illustrated in metal mining, particularly
the outstanding change from the carefully selective mining of the early
days to the mass methods now applied to the large low grade deposits of
the west. Julihn4 shows that until recently an essential part of the skilled
miner's task was to select the valuable ore from the waste, carefully pick-
ing out the pieces of high value and discarding the refuse. A good miner
was "conscientious." His skill lay largely in his ability to discriminate
between the high grade, valuable material and the inferior. The transition
from this older selective mining to the mass methods whereby all the
material in the mineralized area is removed, waste as well as ore, and the
sorting and cleaning are done on the surface, constitutes a major change in
the art of mining. Giant open cuts have come into use; below ground,
methods of caving and handling large blocks of ground have been devel-
oped and the economies thus effected in mining itself far offset the extra
work of eliminating waste matter in cleaning plants on the surface.
Beneficiation of Crude Mineral. — These advances in underground
technology, especially mass mining of metallic ores and mechanical load-
ing of coal, were made possible by parallel advances on the surface which
facilitated the separation of valuable minerals from waste. At the coal
mines systems of mechanical cleaning have developed, such as the shaker
screen, new methods of washing out the impurities with water, and
pneumatic cleaning.
In metal mining the advances have been revolutionary. Shaking
tables of the Wilfley type permit the sorting of fine material by gravity.
The ingenious process of flotation has made possible the separation of
valuable material from refuse with uncanny precision and completeness.
By these methods great amounts of metal, particularly lead and zinc, are
now recovered which were formerly lost simply through inability to
separate them. The waste of metal in the refuse is reduced to insignif-
icance. So efficient are these processes that they permit the treating of
ores formerly considered far too lean for profitable operation, and in this
way they have encouraged the mass methods of mining already discussed.
The development of the famous porphyry coppers is due quite as much
to flotation as to the steam shovel and underground caving systems.
Parallel advances have occurred in the technology of other minerals,
especially of oil and gas.
Increasing Output per Mine Worker. — The average output per man
registers the net result of this battle of natural difficulties and man di-
rected forces. As long as each man's labor obtains increasing amounts of
4 American Institute of Mining Engineers, Mineral Economics, C. E. Julihn, "Copper:
An Example of Advancing Technology," Ch. VI, New York, 1932, p. 127-132.
[ 68 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
mineral, technology and its allies are winning over the handicaps of
nature, and costs are declining. On the other hand, if the output per
worker is falling, the natural difficulties are winning and costs are tending
to increase. Figure 2 sums up the record in nine typical branches of the
mineral industry for the years since 1860, a period great enough to dis-
close the long time trend. In the anthracite mines, as already noted, the
natural difficulties appear to have the best of it. The advances of tech-
nology— suggested by the increasing horsepower per worker — have been
offset by growing physical handicaps, and the output per man has shown
no increase since the turn of the century. The mercury mines, which have
reached an advanced stage of depletion, show the same condition. Up
to 1909 the output per man was apparently rising, but over the last
twenty years it has consistently declined. Mercury mining is a tiny indus-
try, and its diminished productivity has a negligible effect on the national
standard of living. Anthracite mining, on the other hand, is a major
industry. It employs 150,000 men and in value of product it equals all
our gold, silver, lead, zinc and aluminum, with half of our copper thrown
in for good measure.5
Fortunately the productivity in other minerals shows a very large
gain. In all of the instances selected, the advance of technology is proved
by an increase in the horsepower used per man. But it must be remem-
bered that the period since 1860 was also one in which the factors of
exploration and of transport were exceptionally active. Thus it is that
productivity in iron mining reveals a sudden increase through the dis-
covery of the Mesabi range in 1890. Productivity in copper leaps upward
soon after 1870 when the completion of the transcontinental railroads
opened the metal camps of the west to active exploitation. The rise in
productivity of sulphur mining reflects the invention in 1903 of the Frasch
process, supplemented by discoveries of additional deposits on the Gulf
Coast.
In general, all of the mineral industries where the pinch of increasing
natural handicaps is not yet serious show particularly rapid increases in
productivity in the last decade. In copper, iron ore, phosphate rock and
gypsum productivity has nearly doubled since the World War. In bi-
tuminous coal, the largest of the mineral industries, the record is one of
steady increase. Output per man per year was rising from 1840 to 1890.
In 1890 begins the more accurate record of output per man per day; from
2.56 net tons in that year it has climbed to 5.06 in 1930, an increase of
practically 100 percent in the 40 years.
The data on output per worker in the oil and gas industry require a
word of explanation. It is difficult to get accurate statistics of the number
of men engaged in producing oil and gas and the record given here has
6 Average for 1927-1930.
[69]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
been pieced together after consideration of data from a number of scat-
tered sources. The result is far from precise but it will serve to indicate
the trend. It shows that in this second largest of all mineral industries
the production per man is still increasing. The conclusion is especially
significant in view of the fears often expressed of a pending exhaustion
of petroleum supplies. It is clear that up to the present, technology and
discovery of new pools have more than offset exhaustion and that one
man's labor captures more liquid fuel than it did thirty years ago.
1.250
COAL- PER YEAR
Net tons per mon
5
4
9
2
1
0
i i
COA'L-PER DAY
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on B
AND
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^
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Y
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40.000
30.000
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,.
-
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fill 1 i
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COPPER METAL
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;
2.000
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1.000
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O
\ \
1.250
1.000
750
500
250
0
Lon
IRON ORE
g tons per mon -ye
ir
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1 MERCURY
Flasks per man-year
/
/
/
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x
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i
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i § i S SIS!
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2.000
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In
SULPHUR
iq tons per man-yec
.Tudes equ valent o
Sulphur in Pyrite
r
f
PHOSPHATE ROCK
Long tons per man-year
/
Lon
GYPSUM
g tons per mon-ye
r
/
I
/
/
/
X
^
/
/
/
— — -
^
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J S
1 — *
ills § I 2 * {
1 £ g S 8 8 2 «
| 1 i
£ 8 8 2 S
> oo o» CT> a> a.
FIG. 2. — Trend of output per worker in the mines of the United States.
In the mining of anthracite and mercury, the increasing difficulties of mining have in recent years caused
a decline in the output per worker. In the case of the other minerals shown, discovery of new deposits, expansion
of transport, and advances in technology have more than offset the handicaps of nature, and the output per
worker is increasing.
Technical Advances in Consumption. — At the same time that engi-
neering advances have taken place in production, technology has been at
work in the industries utilizing the raw material and economies in con-
sumption have helped to offset the steady depletion of the richer deposits.
The lines of attack have included the development of substitutes, illus-
trated by the use of aluminum instead of tin in collapsible tubes, and by
replacement of mineral nitrate from Chile with synthetic products derived
[ 70 1
NATURAL WEALTH
from atmospheric nitrogen. Notable progress has been made in recovery
of by-products, best seen perhaps in the rise of the by-product coke oven
and the virtual elimination of the wasteful beehive oven.6 Most significant
of all from the point of view of conservation and ultimate cost to the
consumer are improvements which reduce the consumption of mineral
per unit of product. Here the outstanding example is the increasing
efficiency in the use of the mineral fuels.7 The idea of fuel economy is not
new but in our time it has become an organized movement with far
reaching results. In the United States, the movement dates from about
1909 and it was stimulated by the high prices of fuel associated with the
World War. The most spectacular savings were made by the central
electric stations. Caught between the rising price of coal and the fixed
prices of their product, fuel economy became their salvation: the route
to promotion was seen to lead through the boiler room and the best
brains of the electrical industry were devoted to squeezing more and
more kilowatt hours out of the ton of coal. Parallel if less striking advances
were made in other industries. For the twenty years from 1909 to 1929
the percentage of reduction in the average consumption of energy per
unit of product was as follows :8
Percent
Electric public utility power plants (pounds fuel per kilowatt hour) ... — 66
Steam railroads (pounds per transportation unit) —47
Petroleum refining (energy consumed, excluding by-product refinery
gas, per barrel of crude) —36
Iron furnaces, steel works, and rolling mills (coal, oil, and purchased
power — excluding natural gas — per ton of product) . — 25
Cement mills (fuel and purchased power per barrel of product) —21
All other manufacturing (energy consumed per unit of product) —21
All industries and railroads combined, approximately —33
The savings are due not so much to revolutionary inventions like those
of Watt and Neilson as to the cumulative effect of many small advances.
In large part they represent a process of education, a general application
of methods already in use in the most efficient plants. Taking all of the
economies together, it seems clear that fuel efficiency has advanced faster
during the last twenty years than in any equal period of the world's
history, with the single exception of the years immediately following
Watt's improvement of the steam engine.9
6 In 1930 over 94 percent of the coke produced came from by-product ovens.
7 Corresponding economies have been effected in consumption of the metals such as the
development of alloys with superior resistance to corrosion, or possessing qualities that
permit the use of smaller quantities of metal to perform the same work.
8 Tryon, F. G., and Rogers, H. O., "Statistical Studies of Progress in Fuel Efficiency,"
Transactions, Second World Power Conference, Berlin, 1930, vol. VI, p. 360.
9 Ibid., pp. 360-363.
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In the meantime corresponding developments have occurred in the
field of motor fuels, the most important of which are the synthesis of
alcohols and gasoline-like oil from coal. Recent discoveries of French and
German chemists have made it clear that given sufficiently high prices
and plenty of raw coal, the technical men can produce the world's motor
fuel and lubricants.
To indicate the steps by which these advances in utilization were
effected is beyond the limits of a thumbnail sketch. The economies in use
have effected conservation of a very practical kind. They have lengthened
by centuries the prospective life of our mineral reserves. Reinforcing
advances in the technique of mining and metallurgy, they help in the
battle against the increasing difficulties of nature.
Rise of Water Power. — The brilliant achievements of the European
chemists in devising ways of making oil from coal do not solve the prob-
lem of how to get along without mineral fuel. They merely indicate that
when supplies of oil begin to fail the burden now carried by petroleum
will fall back upon coal. Some day when men have used up the bonus of
fossil fuel, they will have to learn to balance their energy budgets by
collecting each year from the inexhaustible sources of water, wind and
sun as much power as they expend.
Notable progress in the harnessing of these resources has been made
in recent years. High prices of fuel during the war stimulated interest in
water power all over the world. In the United States the tendency was
facilitated by the passage in 1920 of the federal Water Power Act, ending
a deadlock of long standing and opening water power sites on navigable
streams to development under federal license. It is true that the progress
of fuel economy tends to cheapen the cost of steam power, and this acts
to limit the development of water power, but this influence has been more
than offset by the expanding market for water power afforded by the
"superpower" movement. Formerly the market for hydro was limited to
the requirements in the vicinity of the site unless the promoters con-
structed their own transmission lines to distant markets. Even then, the
property often had to pass through a long period of waiting before demand
caught up with the installed capacity. The rise of interconnected electrical
systems provided a much larger and more diversified market; it brought
the market nearer to the water power, thereby cutting down investments
in new transmission lines; and it reduced or eliminated the need
of auxiliary steam plants. The combination of these factors has thus
far more than offset the competition of fuel power made cheaper
by declining prices of fuel and by fuel efficiency. The result is a rapid
increase in the installed capacity of water power. (Table 2.) The com-
pletion of Hoover Dam will add another 1,200,000 horse power to the
total developed.
[ 72 1
NATURAL WEALTH
TABLE 2. — GROWTH OF DEVELOPED WATER POWER IN THE UNITED STATES, 1869-1930
Year
Capacity of
water-wheels,
horse power,
end of year
Average
annual
increase over
preceding date
Year
Capacity of
water-wheels,
horse power,
end of year
Average
annual
increase over
preceding date
1869
1,150,000
1915
6,140,000
384 000
1879
1 250 000
10 000
1920
7 800 000
332 000
1889
1 300 000
5 000
1902
2 050 000
58 000
1925
11 180 000
676 000
1930
14 885 000
742 000
1910
4,220,000
271 000
0 From records of U. S. Geological Survey; see especially R. W. Davenport, "Growth of Water Power
Development in the United States," in Power Capacity and Production in the United States, Water Supply Paper
579.
The 14,885,000 horse power utilized up to the end of 1930 may be
compared with the total potential of 38,000,000 horse power, as estimated
by the United States Geological Survey. Thus less than 40 percent of
the potential water power resources have been developed. The Survey's
estimates are conservative and systematic construction of storage dams
would greatly increase the potential power, perhaps multiplying it several
fold. Encouraging as is the increase in developed power from the view-
point of conservation, it goes only a little way toward meeting the total
energy requirements of the United States. Water power does furnish 40
percent of the electricity generated by the public utilities but only 7 per-
cent of the total energy consumption of the country, including that used
in the form of heat.
Other Inexhaustible Energy Sources. — There is little recent progress
to record in the utilization of the other inexhaustible sources of power.
A decade of speculation on the fascinating idea of atomic energy finds
physicists skeptical of proposals to harness it and leaves the impression
that the power of the future must be obtained directly or indirectly from
the sun.10 The use of windmills is declining. Power from the tides lies
still in the future although an 80,000 horsepower project at Passama-
quoddy Bay is now before the Federal Power Commission. Solar motors
and Claude's experiments with the warm waters of the tropics have
served chiefly to emphasize the low grade character of these resources.
Like the low grade iron and aluminum which together make up 10 percent
of the crust of the earth, the low grade energy resources exist in stupen-
10 Millikan, Robert A., "Available Energy": "The energy available . . . through the
disintegration of radioactive, or any other, atoms may perhaps be sufficient to keep the
corner peanut and pop-corn man going, on a few street corners in our larger towns for a
long time yet to come, but that is all ... The energy supply to man in the past has been
obtained wholly from the sun, and a billion years hence he will, I think, be supplying all
his needs for light, and warmth, and power entirely from the sun." Science, September 28,
1928, vol. 68, no. 1761, p. 279.
[ 73 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
dous amounts, but by any techniques now known are available only at
prices far above what we are accustomed to pay.
Accumulation of Metal Stocks. — The technical advances in utilization
of the minerals thus far referred to have dealt chiefly with the fuels. In
the field of the metals an outstanding development is the accumulation of
a working capital of metal which passes first into finished goods and then
comes back in the form of scrap.
The growth of this revolving fund of metal is one of the curious and
outstanding phenomena of the mineral industries. Numerous raw
materials of vegetable and animal origin are salvaged and used again, but
the life span between original use and ultimate destruction of such
materials as paper and rubber is characteristically short, whereas that of
the more durable metals is characteristically long. As Bain points out, it
is probable that some of the gold now in the vaults of the Treasury was
mined in the days of the Caesars.11
With the rapid increase in the volume of virgin metal flowing into the
channels of trade, the world's stock is built up at a surprising rate.
As the stock increases, the tonnage of secondary or scrap metal which is
reclaimed and returned to industry increases also. The accumulation has
given rise to a large industry built up around the collection, classification
and resmelting of scrap metal. The annual value of the secondary non-
ferrous metals is $330,000,000. 12 The annual value of the scrap iron and
steel is not known but it very possibly equals that of the non-ferrous
material. The stock of secondary material modifies the demand for the
primary metal, it adds to the bargaining power of the large consumers who
are also the largest producers of scrap, and thereby helps to stabilize
prices.
Our records of the quantity of secondary metal recovered are based
on the work of J. P. Dunlop and date from about 1911. In the years since
then, the recoveries of scrap have increased much more rapidly than the
production of virgin metal. So far has the process gone that in 1926 the
secondary material furnished 38 percent of the supply of aluminum, 35
percent of the copper, 31 percent of the antimony, 28 percent of the tin,
23 percent of the lead and 19 percent of the zinc.13
The same tendency is apparent in the iron and steel industry, where
there has been a pronounced slackening of the growth of consumption of
virgin pig iron. This does not mean that the American people are using
less iron, for the consumption of steel and of finished rolled products,
including iron as well as steel, is increasing much as before. The retarda-
11 Mineral Economics, op. cit., H. Foster Bain, Ch. VIII, "The Rise of Scrap Metals,"
p. 161.
12 U. S. Bureau of Mines, J. P. Dunlop, "Secondary Metals," Mineral Resources of the
United States, 1928, Part I, Metals, p. 145 f.
13 Based on calculations by A. B. Parsons; see Mineral Economics, op. cit., p. 169.
[ 74 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
tion of the growth of virgin metal production is made possible by the
rapid expansion of scrap. Thus it is that the consumption of virgin pig
iron increased 135 percent from 1900-1904 to 1925-1929 while the con-
sumption of finished rolled iron and steel (including the contributions of
scrap) increased during the same period by 196 percent.
The ultimate result of these tendencies seems clearly indicated. We
are moving toward a position where the great bulk of the world's annual
requirements of metal will be met from scrap. The demand for virgin
metal will consist chiefly in replacing the annual loss through dissipating
uses, wastage and corrosion. Obviously such a condition is far in the
future, but the tendency is unmistakable and it suggests one of the ways
by which modern society is adjusting itself to the increasing natural
difficulties of mining.
Resultant Decline in Mineral Prices. — Having reviewed the forces
tending to offset depletion, we are now in a position to sum up the net
results of the battle against increasing costs. A practical test is the long
time trend of prices. Price is the resultant of all of the factors and if
mineral prices are falling in relation to the general commodity index, it is
clear that the factors of discovery, transport and technology must be
winning over the increasing difficulties of nature.
Relative Prices of Metals and Fuels. — Figure 3 traces the recent price
history of some of the major minerals. To facilitate comparison all the
prices are reduced to index numbers, the average for the decade preceding
the World War being taken as 100. In 1930 and 1931 there has been a
sharp decline in which the prices of minerals have fallen precipitately
along with those of other commodities, but because of the difficulty of
interpreting these abnormal years, no attempt is made to carry the data
beyond 1929. In a few cases, such as Pennsylvania anthracite, prices of
the minerals have been rising in relation to other commodities. Most of
them, however, have been moving downward in relation to the general
price level over the last century, and are continuing to do so. As a group
the minerals have been growing cheaper through the years.
Relative Prices of Power and Heat. — Much the same tendency is shown
by the trend of prices of power. Electricity in particular has been falling
in price with respect to other commodities. In fact, the average price for
lighting and domestic use has declined absolutely as well as relatively even
since 1913. Prices of electricity for power increased during the war, but
not as much as general commodity prices, and since then have been
falling.
Our review of price trends indicates clearly that on balance technology
and its allies have been winning over the growing natural difficulties of
mining. Up to the present the increasing supplies of minerals demanded
by American industry have been delivered at decreasing cost.
[75 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
140
-60
PER CENT ABOVE OR BELOW THE ALL -COMMODITY INDEX
PER CENT ABOVE OR BELOW THE ALL-COMMODITY INDEX
FIG. 3. — The downward trend of mineral prices in relation to the general price level.
To facilitate comparison, the unit prices of each mineral were first reduced to index numbers, the average
for the years 1900-1909 being taken at 100.0. (Note that all the curves come together at that point.) The result-
ing index for each mineral was then compared with the Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale prices,
recomputed to the same base. The diagram shows the percentage deviations above or below the all-commodity
index.
It is clear that except for anthracite, all the minerals shown have been moving downward in relation to the
general price level.
Calculated from price quotations assembled from various sources, partly from unpublished studies of John
Alden Grimes.
76 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
III. SIGNS OF ADVANCING DEPLETION AND SHIFTS IN SOURCES OF
SUPPLY
The fact that prices of minerals have been declining in relation to other
commodities might seem to warrant dismissing all concern over future
supplies in the United States, but if we search more closely we shall find
tell tale symptoms of advancing age in some of the most vigorous of our
mining industries, indicating that they, too, are traveling the road,
already taken by anthracite and mercury, which ultimately leads to
increasing costs.
There are four major signs of age to be looked for: (1) an increase in
the physical difficulties of mining; (2) the transition from exploitation of
the precious metals to those of lower unit value; (3) a decline in exportable
surplus or, conversely, an increasing dependence upon imports; and (4)
a characteristic migration away from older fields nearing the stage of
exhaustion to new fields, at first in the same country and later abroad.
The first of these signs — increasing difficulties of mining — has already
been pointed out in connection with the principle of increasing costs. Let
us now apply the three remaining tests of advancing age.
Transition from the Precious to the Base Metals. — It is a common-
place of mining history that gold is the first mineral to be sought in a new
country. It remained for de Launay to observe that other minerals are
attacked successively in descending order of unit price. First to follow the
wave of settlement is a period of exploitation of gold and silver, followed
successively by periods of exploitation of copper, of lead and zinc, and of
iron.14 The successive periods overlap, for more than one metal, of course,
may be worked at a given time but the relative order of emphasis tends to
follow the value per pound.
Advanced Stage of Exploitation in Europe. — Judged by de Launay's
scale, western Europe has long since passed the gold and silver stage and
in all probability the copper and lead stage as well. In England, where
the record is clear, the stage of gold and silver was passed long ago, the
peak of copper was passed in 1861, of lead in 1870, of zinc about the same
time and of tin in 1871. 15 Even the peak of high grade iron ore was passed
in 1882, although immense reserves of very low grade ore remain. Thus by
the de Launay scale, England is in the late iron stage of maturity. Indeed,
western Europe as a whole may be assigned to the zinc and iron stages.
Stage Reached in the United States. — In spite of our abundance of
minerals, it is clear that the United States is traveling the same road.
America has passed its peak of gold production although it is still a large
14 Launay, Louis de, La Conquete Minerale, Paris, 1908.
16Hewett, D. F., "Cycles of Metal Production," Transactions, American Institute of
Mining and Metallurgical Engineers, 1929, p. 91.
[ 77 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
contributor to the world's supply. The trend of gold recoveries has been
downward since the outbreak of the World War and although the present
decline in commodity prices acts to stimulate gold production, geologists
see small chance of restoring the industry to its former level.16 Apparently
America has also passed the silver peak. Copper production, on the other
hand, is still climbing, or was, at least, through 1929. The country is still
a heavy producer of the lower priced metals and can greatly expand its
output of them whenever the market warrants. On de Launay's scale the
United States is in the copper stage of mineral exploitation.
Decline in Exportable Surplus. — De Launay's test deals with the
order in which the metals are attacked. Hewett carried the idea further
by noting that the exploitation of any given metal tends to follow a
typical life cycle.17 The cycle begins with a stage of early youth in which
the number of mines, and consequently the production of the mineral,
increases rapidly. There is a large exportable surplus of crude ore which
moves beyond the district for smelting and refining. The surplus of crude
ore leads, in turn, to the establishment of local reduction plants, and in the
industry's prime, smelting capacity and mining capacity are in balance.
With advancing age the output declines, the exportable surplus is gone
and the metallurgical plants, if they survive at all, depend upon imported
ore. Hewett's five stages are shown by successive peaks or culminations of :
1. The quantity of exports of crude ore.
2. The number of mines in operation.
3. The number of smelters or refining units in operation.
4. The production of metal from domestic ore.
5. The quantity of imports of crude ore from abroad.
The description applies specifically to metal mining but correspond-
ing stages may be found in the winning of the fuels and the non-met allies.
Space does not permit tracing each one of the five stages, but we may
apply Hewett's central idea, the transition from a condition of exportable
surplus to a condition of dependence upon imports, as one of the tests
of advancing age. Judged by this standard, how old are the mineral
industries of the United States ?
Exportable Surplus Still Large. — At first sight a review of the long time
trends in American foreign trade in the minerals for the last fifty years
shows less change than might have been expected. Measured in dollars,
we still have a large exportable surplus. Broadly speaking, our major
exports and imports today consist of the same minerals as forty years ago.
In absolute quantity both the import and the export items have greatly
increased, but so has the internal consumption of the country.
16 Mineral Economics, op. cit., G. F. Loughlin, Ch. XIII, "Precious Metal Supplies and
the Price Level," pp. 259-263.
17 Hewett, op. cit., pp. 8S-90.
[ 78]
NATURAL WEALTH
Minerals Showing Little Change. — For a number of the minerals,
including some of the most important, closer examination confirms this
first impression of no significant change in the balance of imports and
exports. Among the larger items, bituminous coal, iron, lead and zinc
show little change. There is no change of course in the position with
respect to minerals of which the United States lacks resources of com-
mercial grade, such as tin, nickel, high grade asbestos, antimony, platinum
and chromite. In all of the last group imports continue to mount with
domestic consumption and our dependence on foreign supplies is still
virtually complete.
Minerals Showing Increasing Exports or Diminishing Imports.— There
is a group of minerals in which time has increased our relative surplus — or
diminished our dependency, which amounts to the same thing. Of these by
far the most striking illustration is sulphur. Thirty years ago domestic
production of native sulphur was insignificant and the supply was almost
wholly imported. Discovery of new deposits on the Gulf Coast and the
development of the Frasch process of hot water wells have transformed
the United States from overwhelming dependence to unquestioned
dominance of the world supply. Less spectacular but real advances have
occurred in other fields, such as magnesite, nitrates, potash, salt, asphalt
and molybdenum.
Minerals Showing Declining Exports or Increasing Imports. — It will
be seen that the group of minerals just discussed — those in which domestic
supplies are becoming relatively more abundant — consists of materials of
secondary importance, very useful indeed, but of distinctly second rank in
point of labor and capital employed. On the other hand, the group showing
a decline in ratio of exports to imports includes some of our largest mineral
industries, notably anthracite, copper and petroleum. All three of these
have been upon the free list and have enjoyed a profitable export trade.
Before considering them, it is well to get clearly in mind that a decline
in relative exports of a mineral may be due to other factors than depletion.
It may, as in the case of our radium and vanadium industries, be due to
unexpected discovery of incomparably rich deposits abroad. It may be due
to the tapping by a new railroad of a foreign deposit known but previously
inaccessible. It may often be hastened by rapid growth of the internal
consumption of the country. Or it may be due to temporary causes,
such as depreciated foreign currencies. But where the mineral is on the
free list, a declining export balance which has continued for some years is
a line of evidence that our search for criteria of advancing age cannot
afford to ignore.
For Pennsylvania anthracite the record is clear. The exports, which
go to Canada and have run as high as $45,000,000 a year in value, are
shrinking. In the New England market, until recently considered one of
[79]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the great strongholds of the Pennsylvania product, first Welsh and then
Russian anthracite obtained a foothold. The change is due to several
factors, but among them is clearly the increasing cost of mining anthracite,
in which advances in wage rates have reinforced the growing difficulties
of nature. The evidence of the physical conditions has already been
pointed out, and to find the evidence of foreign trade pointing in the
same direction indicates that Hewett's test of shifting foreign balances
is one criterion of age.
Applied to copper mining, the test again suggests advancing age. The
United States continues to be the largest exporter of copper in the world.
In 1929, more than 990,000,000 pounds of the red metal were sent abroad.
It is not generally realized, however, that while exports of the metal
have been growing, imports of ore and crude material have been growing
faster still. In 1891-1895 the metal in the imports was equivalent to only
8 percent of that in exports. Year by year the ratio of imports has grown
until in 1929 the imports were 98 percent as great as the exports. In fact,
under the disturbed conditions of 1930 the imports exceeded the exports.
It is true that the imports consist chiefly of crude metal brought to this
country for refining, and that they come from mines in Latin America
controlled by United States capital. Recently also, competition of very
rich deposits in Africa has become a factor. Even allowing for these other
causes, the forty-year change in the export balance indicates that increas-
ing depth and declining grade of ore now handicap many of our copper
mines in competing with those of newer lands in the Southern Hemisphere.
TABLE 3. — THE CHANGING RATIO OF IMPORTS OF COPPER TO EXPORTS, 1891-1930*
Ratio of
Ratio of
Ratio of
Period
imports to
exports
Period
imports to
exports
Period
imports to
exports
(percent)
(percent)
(percent)
1891-1895 average
8
1916-1920 average.
65
1927 average
67
1896-1900 average
18
1921-1925 average.
68
1928 average
70
1901-1905 average
44
1926-1930 average.
85
1929 average
98
1906-1910 average
45
1926 average
81
1930 average
108
1911-1915 average
42
« Calculated from records of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
The trend of petroleum is closely parallel to that of copper. The
United States continues to produce 68 percent of the world's output of
crude oil and remains the largest exporter, its shipments abroad increasing
steadily. But here again the rise of imports tells the tale. A generation
ago imports of oil were negligible. The past thirty years have seen a
great increase, and in 1929 the imports of crude and refined products
amounted to about 70 percent of the exports. In 1921-1925 they even
[ 80 1
NATURAL WEALTH
exceeded the exports. At the turn of the century a third of the total supply
(production plus imports) was available for shipment abroad; in 1929 the
proportion had fallen to 14 percent. Among the several factors involved in
this thirty-year change is the depletion of the older fields and the increas-
ing depth of drilling in many of the new. As in the case of copper the
imports come chiefly from properties owned by United States capital in
Latin America and they consist largely of crude oil brought to this coun-
try for refining. This fact does not alter the difficult position of the mar-
ginal producers in the United States. Other minerals of lesser rank show
like signs of advancing depletion and lessened ability to compete.
The verdict of the test of exports and imports is clear. Although
prices to the American consumer are still declining in relation to other
commodities, our mineral industries have started on the path of the older
districts of Europe, a path which ultimately leads to severe physical
handicaps and unavoidable increases in cost.
Migration from Old to New Fields. — Another sign of mineral deple-
tion is the shift in the centers of production brought about by the decline
and abandonment of old fields and forced migration to new ones. Such a
shift in sources of supply may be at work even in an industry where the
trends of output per worker and of price give no hint of increased costs
of mining. Mining, say the Germans, is the robber industry. It leaves
behind abandoned dumps and workings filled with stagnant water and
the migration to new fields is quite as much a sign of increasing costs in
the old areas as it is of abundant resources in the new. Measured by this
test most of our minerals (except the omnipresent materials of construc-
tion) show signs of depletion. Many once famous districts have already
been exhausted and production of the mineral is sustained by turning
quickly to new fields or to sources of lower grade.18
A few examples drawn from the history of many fields will suffice
for illustration. In gold mining the record is cruelly apparent. The glories
of Cripple Creek have departed; the camp which employed 6,000 men
in its boom days now has hardly 500. Several others of the famous gold
districts are dead or dying and perhaps the majority of the larger ones
are on the decline, or maintain their output by means of by-product gold
from copper, lead and zinc. Among the conspicuous exceptions are the
Black Hills district, which is still in its prime, and Alaska, which promises
a large increase.19 Silver mining tells somewhat the same story. The
fabulous Comstock Lode which yielded $300,000,000 in the first twenty
years of its life is gutted. Several other famous silver camps are following
the same path and production of the white metal is maintained today
chiefly as a by-product of the working of the base metals.
18 Hewett, op. cit., p. 92.
"Loughlin. G. F. op. cit., pp. 260, 263.
[ 81 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In copper, as already mentioned, the United States is still rapidly
expanding its output, increasing its average production per worker and
diminishing its costs. The industry as a whole is plainly in its prime, yet
there are districts in which exhaustion is a serious problem. It is most
conspicuous in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the first of the great
American copper camps, which has produced in its time more than
$1,300,000,000 worth of the red metal. In this famous old field, increasing
depth and declining grade of ore limit the output per man, and the dis-
trict is losing in the competitive struggle as the center of the production
shifts more and more to the southwest.
In the other non-ferrous metal industries, one can find parallel
illustrations of individual mining camps which have fallen sadly
to decay.
In mining iron ore, production has shifted from the eastern districts
to Lake Superior and from the older ranges of Lake Superior to the Mesabi.
The shift reflects the unrivalled richness of the Mesabi quite as much as
the depletion of the older districts, yet it is important to note that the
grade of ore produced in the Mesabi is declining and that the standard
of the commercial shipments from the region is kept up by beneficiation
of increasing tonnages of material below present commercial grade.20
Sulphur has already been mentioned as one of the relatively few
examples of increasing abundance, but even in this industry the early
seats of production in Louisiana have been worked out and abandoned
and the supply is maintained by shifting quickly to newly discovered
domes in Texas.
Bituminous coal illustrates a mining industry in early youth, almost in
infancy as far as depletion of aggregate reserves is concerned, yet in
spite of the seemingly inexhaustible tonnage underground, many dis-
tricts show clear signs of depletion. The glories of the Moshannon bed of
Clearfield are a memory, the best of the Brazil Block seam is gone and
only a few acres of virgin coal remain in the famous Big Vein of Georges
Creek. In the anthracite industry there is small sign of migration, for
absence of considerable deposits outside of Pennsylvania leaves no place
to which the anthracite industry can shift. As already noted, however,
the anthracite region as a whole has entered the stage of increasing costs
of mining, and the loss of tonnage to competitive fuels is in a sense a
migration of production centers to other fields.
Natural gas shows the characteristic migration in high degree. Its
record is punctuated with spectacular discoveries and subsequent decline.
In the Appalachian region as a whole, production shows no increase and
is maintained by moving south from the declining supplies of Pennsylva-
nia and Ohio into West Virginia, where lie most of the undrilled reserves.
20 In 1930, 18.5 percent of the iron ore shipped from Minnesota mines was beneficiated.
[82]
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The little McKeesport field, discovered in 1919, was exploited so rapa-
ciously that it was practically exhausted within a year. Now attention
shifts to northern Pennsylvania where recent discoveries in the Tioga
region offer some hopes of prolonging the Appalachian supply, and while
the east is thus at best holding its own, the center of production shifts to
the southwest and thousand-mile pipe lines are relied on to bring in gas
to communities where ten years ago a shortage seemed inevitable.
But the greatest example of exhaustion and migration to new fields
is petroleum. Everyone in the oil country knows the characteristic decline
of an oil well, so regular that it permits forecast of the well's ultimate
yield. At best a given pool reaches its peak in a few years, and often in a
few months after the discovery of the well. Thereafter comes a rapid
decline. The interval between discovery and the tell tale appearance of
salt water in the marginal wells is characteristically from eighteen months
to three years.
Were it not for discovery of new pools the supply of petroleum would
collapse, for the bulk of the output at any time comes from the flush pro-
duction of new fields. Thus the history of the American industry is one
of successive movement from old to new areas. In the Appalachians where
the industry began, the older districts have long since ceased to yield,
except by the pump, and some of the operators even resort to secondary
recovery by forcing down water to wash out the old sands. From Penn-
sylvania the centers of production moved westward to Ohio and Indiana
and thence to Oklahoma, the Gulf Coast, California and Texas. The
record of some of the famous pools of recent years shows how quickly
their glories fade. Cushing, which glutted the world market in 1914-1915
and caused one of the most serious periods of overproduction in the
history of the industry, is now an insignificant producer under the pump,
contributing less than 1 percent of the national supply. Seminole, which
flooded the market in 1927-1928, is on the wane and the fickle goddess
of luck who rules the oil pools has turned her face to Oklahoma City and
east Texas.
It is a consolation to the deserted mining districts that time may
bring a reversal of the migration. Many of the old camps still contain
large deposits of mineral too low in grade to work under present condi-
tions. A revolutionary change in methods or a great increase in price
might restore their former glory. Such a change might again make the
Lake Superior copper district one of the world's greatest centers of
production, when other districts, now producing high grade ore, have
faded simply because they lack reserves of lower grade material.
Increasing Demand for Tariff Protection. — Confirmation of the
underlying evidence pointing to depletion of the older mining districts is
found in the changing attitude toward the tariff. Our concern here is not
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
with the wisdom of the protective policy. The motive of self-interest is
as clear in the position of mine owners regarding the tariff as in that of
other business groups. Space permits no statement of the familiar argu-
ments for protection, or of the less familiar free trade argument that
tariffs on exhaustible resources tend to accelerate depletion and bring
nearer a time of ultimate dependence on foreign supplies. Our concern is
rather with the fact that great industries formerly content to remain upon
the free list now demand protection. To students of mineral economics
this is one of the symptoms of increasing age.
Some of our mineral industries have been protected since early times.
Pig iron has long been the recipient of tariff favors. Lead and zinc ob-
tained protection many years ago, not because the deposits were poor
but because they lay so far inland that European metal could compete
on the Atlantic Coast. A tariff was laid on mercury as early as 1883 and
has been raised several times since. Aluminum, though later in rising to
commercial importance, has been protected from the start. Cement,
clay products, glass manufactures and other derivatives of the mines
have asked for and obtained substantial protection.
The war brought another crop of protected mineral industries, a
crop planted by the artificially high prices caused by stoppage of normal
imports during hostilities. Chief among them were the ferro-alloy minerals
— especially manganese and tungsten — and magnesite for refractories.
The wisdom of extending protection to certain of these minerals has been
challenged, and as far as the criticisms are just, the cost to the consumer,
will have to be set down as one of the expenses of war.
Until recently, however, the great bulk of American mineral produc-
tion remained passively on the free list, because the owners, enjoying a
large export trade, saw nothing to gain by asking for protection. Now oil,
copper and anthracite are demanding a tariff. In part the change of
attitude is due to discovery of exceptionally rich deposits in new lands,
such as the copper of Rhodesia and the Congo, in part to depreciation of
foreign currencies and to state promoted exports from Soviet Russia,
but also it reflects the plight of increasingly influential groups of marginal
producers who cannot meet the pressure of foreign competition. Some
producers with large holdings abroad, on the other hand, continue to be
more interested in providing outlets for their foreign output than in
protecting the domestic price.
The transfer of these three minerals to the dutiable list would
be a turning point in the utilization of natural resources in North America.
In 1929 only 18 percent of the minerals actually imported were dutiable.
In the same year only 27 percent of the total value of our domestic mineral
production consisted of commodities enjoying protection. Shifting copper,
petroleum, and anthracite from the free list would raise the percentage
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NATURAL WEALTH
dutiable to 67 percent of the imports21 and to 63 percent of the domestic
production.
Whether or not protection is obtained, the demand for it is testimony
of the advancing age of the mineral industries of the United States. Just
as a century ago the centers of mineral production began to shift from
Europe to the United States, so today they show signs of migrating to still
newer lands in South America, Northern Canada and Africa.
IV. THE ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION OF MINING AND ITS EFFECTS ON WASTE
OF RESOURCES
While these slow moving and long time tendencies have been at work
modifying the physical and economic environment, the men engaged in
the mineral industries have been absorbed in their daily tasks of buying
and selling, hiring and firing, and earning a living. Their day to day
problems involve a thousand economic and social adjustments and it
would doubtless be possible to list a large number of clearly apparent
trends, which to the people engaged seem of engrossing interest. Such a
list would include tendencies in methods of management, technical
supervision, labor relations, collective bargaining and company unions,
civil liberties in mining communities, housing, sanitation, public health,
unemployment — particularly technological unemployment — accident pre-
vention, distribution and marketing, changes in freight rates, competitive
wage levels, taxation of mineral reserves, wage rates and profits. To the
employers and workmen in the mineral industries these immediate prob-
lems seem more real and important than the remoter factors discussed in
this chapter, and as social problems many of them are of first rank.22
Overdevelopment and Destructive Competition. — For our present
purposes we must select from this mass of phenomena only those which
react conspicuously upon the resource endowment and which tend to
enhance or impair its adequacy for future national requirements. Among
these one stands out above all others — the highly competitive organiza-
tion of the business of mining and the tendency to overdevelopment
and overproduction, with its concomitant wastes. Existence of surplus
capacity is a familiar matter in American business. It is present in many
lines of manufacturing.23 It always involves waste of capital and labor
with resulting pressure on prices, profits and wage rates. These charac-
teristic economic losses are present in mining on a very large scale, but
in the case of resource industries, excessive competition may also involve
waste of the natural endowment upon which the high American standard
21 Assuming, that is, no diminution in the volume of imports. The percentages are
based upon the dollar values in 1929.
22 On labor problems, see Chap. XVI.
23 Compare with Chap. V.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of life so largely depends. It is this needless sacrifice of the resources which
our discussion of the economic organization of mining must keep in view.
The condition of overdevelopment with the consequent tendency to
overproduction seems especially prevalent in the extractive industries.
Agriculture and lumbering, as well as mining, exhibit it. The tendency is
world wide, for the extractive products are staple commodities competing
in world markets, but the effects are especially serious in the United
States because of the great extent of our extractive industries and the
highly competitive character of their organization.
Resulting Waste of the Resources. — The results are most clearly
seen in mining bituminous coal where the hardships endured by the
persons engaged are all too familiar. Much of the industry is bankrupt.
From 1923 to 1929 a total of 3,300 mines were forced to close, and 250,000
men lost their jobs; the wages of the remainder have been cut again and
again, and with the fall in labor standards has come near collapse of the
machinery of collective bargaining.
The economic losses are by this time a familiar story. Here we must
stress the waste of resources that such destructive competition compels.
After field examination of hundreds of mines in all the major eastern
districts, the engineers of the United States Coal Commission placed the
average loss in mining bituminous coal at 35 percent, of which 15 per-
cent is classed as unavoidable and 20 percent as avoidable under present
known practice.24 In the agricultural states of the middle west, the loss
averages from 37 to 53 percent, nearly half the coal being left underground
in pillars and stumps without attempt at recovery. The engineers of the
Coal Commission were careful to refer to the tonnage sacrificed as a
"loss" and not a "waste," and in justice to the coal operators it must be
made plain that they had no choice in the matter. Sheer abundance of
resources and competition in an overdeveloped industry forced them to
adopt such practices or go out of business. But from the social viewpoint
the fact remains that 150,000,000 tons of minable coal is left under-
ground every year under circumstances which render its recovery highly
improbable. The avoidable loss is as great as the entire bituminous pro-
duction of post-war Germany.
Similar conditions are found in a number of other industries. The
most conspicuous example is oil, in which producers themselves admit
the need of conservation. In spite of brilliant engineering progress in the
technique of drilling, recovery, refining and use, destructive competition
perpetuates serious waste of the resources. The losses referred to are
quite apart from the waste of labor and capital through duplication of
24 U. S. Congress, George S. Rice, and J. W. Paul, "Amount and Nature of Losses in
Mining Bituminous Coal in the Eastern United States," Senate Document 195, 68th
Congress, 2d. Sess., Report of the United States Coal Commission, 1925, Part III, pp. 1841-
1876.
NATURAL WEALTH
facilities and effort. Our concern is rather with the premature encroach-
ment of salt water through competitive drilling, the premature dissipation
of the pressure of gas dissolved in the oil, which is now known to be the
chief expulsive agent in driving the oil out of the sands; the continued
loss of natural gas through production in excess of any possible market;
the loss of the volatile constituents through storing surplus crude in open
reservoirs; and the flooding of such quantities of oil upon the market
as to force its utilization under boilers in localities where coal is cheaply
available, thereby sacrificing the potential gasoline content which is
capable of much higher uses. These losses again are not the fault of the
individual oil operator. They are the consequence of the present competi-
tive organization and are in sharp contrast to the brilliant technical
advances which have been made by the industry where competitive con-
ditions permit. There is not the slightest doubt that the engineers of both
the oil and coal industries can effect great savings in the resources if and
when economic conditions make it profitable to do so, merely by applying
engineering methods which are already understood.
Complicating Factors. — The roots of the problem are embedded in
legal conceptions of mineral property transplanted from Tudor England
into the very different conditions of the New World. The common law
doctrine that whoso owns the surface owns the mineral below caused the
original title to most of the coal and other stratified mineral deposits to
pass into the ownership of some millions of farmers without regard to
future problems of mineral exploitation. Wherever this occurred the law
of mining started out of step with the economics and engineering of
mining, the discordance being most serious in the case of the migratory
oil and gas. The scattering of ownership and the conflict of local interest
thus created have hitherto proved insurmountable obstacles to unification
of policy among producers either of oil and gas or bituminous coal.
On the other hand, those who despair of control by voluntary efforts
of the producers and turn to the alternative of legislation, meet another
obstacle quite as serious — the confusion between state and federal
authority. The Constitution, as interpreted by the courts, assumes that
"interstate commerce" is something distinct from "production," and
assigns exclusive jurisdiction over the one to the federal government and
over the other to 48 separate states. In the actual business of mining,
"production" and "interstate commerce" do not thus dissociate them-
selves, and in practice neither the federal government nor the individual
states, acting alone, are in position to stabilize the mineral industries by
legislative enactment. A good illustration is the ineffectiveness of the
attempts of either the federal government or the states to ration coal
supplies during the great strike of 1922. 25 Add to these obstacles the
26Tryon, F. G., "The Underlying Facts of the Coal Situation in the United States,"
Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science in the City of New York, vol. X, no. 4, pp.
685-708.
[ 87 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
consumers' fear of combination among competitors, expressed in the anti-
trust laws, and the producers' dislike of regulation by external authority,
and the problem of controlling destructive competition becomes difficult
indeed.
Attempts at Production Control. — That change in the economic
organization of production is needed is the conclusion reached by leaders
in many of the mineral industries. Space permits only the briefest
reference to the trends in this direction. The emergence of "production
control" as an industry problem is evidenced by widespread discussion
and by the appointment of trade committees to deal with the subject.
Such committees have been organized by the American Institute of
Mining Engineers, the Chamber of Commerce of the United States, the
American Petroleum Institute, the National Coal Association, and by
associations in the metal trades. The devices suggested or attempted
include stabilization through export associations organized under the
Webb Act, in which foreign producers are invited to participate; organiza-
tion of international cartels; mergers and consolidations; coordination
by federal agencies such as the Oil Conservation Board; government
regulation and control (generally opposed by industry); modification of
the anti-trust laws to permit price agreements and the fixing of production
quotas; district selling agencies; unit operation of oil pools; proration of
output by voluntary agreement or by compulsory order of state commis-
sions under authority of the state's police power; interstate compacts;
and even constitutional amendment. The most interesting and significant
of these experiments are probably those attempted in the oil industry
where the wastes of competition are especially heavy and where opinion
among producers has crystallized in support of legislation passed under
the police powers of the state. California, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico
and some of the other oil states have enacted such legislation, but the
results, while encouraging, serve to emphasize the interstate character
of competition in this as in other mineral industries and suggest that
until means are found to coordinate policies among the principal produc-
ing states the problem of waste prevention will remain unsolved.
V. THE OUTLOOK FOB THE FUTURE
It is proverbially hazardous to prophesy in human affairs and when
to the uncertainties of social action are added the chance character of
mineral discovery and the dynamic possibilities of invention, the task is
doubly difficult. Anyone tempted to read the future of the minerals should
remember not only the troubles of business forecasters, but the short-
comings of geologic estimates of reserves. When Boston was building
King's Chapel in 1745, men feared that the supply of granite boulders
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NATURAL WEALTH
would prove insufficient to finish the structure, and as late as 1920 the
U. S. Geological Survey sponsored a very careful estimate of the country's
oil reserves which eleven years' experience has already proved much too
low. In the circumstances, a forecast is inappropriate, but something may
be said as to the outlook, assuming the trends before indicated to continue.
The Ten-year Outlook. — Considering the minerals as a whole and
the country as a whole, the immediate outlook is for ample supplies
available at declining cost. As far as the mineral and power resources are
concerned, there is nothing to indicate the emergence of a serious limiting
factor in the next ten years. At the same time, shifts in sources of supply
will undoubtedly continue, individual minerals may rise in relative price
and there may be increased pressure for tariffs.
In fact, the immediate social problems growing out of the minerals
seem less those of scarcity than of superabundance. Men are thinking of
the coal question, the oil question and even the metal question in terms
of controlling the economic wastes of overdevelopment and destructive
competition. The urge for change in economic organization is strong, and
it comes primarily not from consumers complaining of a shortage, but
from owners unable to dispose of a troublesome surplus and from mine
workers who want protection against low wages and unemployment.
The Long Time Outlook. — In the long time outlook the outstanding
facts are the growing difficulties of mining and the prospect of an ultimate
increase in cost. The tendencies are unmistakable, and the experience of
England shows how early in the exploitation of a mineral resource the
stage of increasing cost may arrive. England's original endowment of
non-ferrous metal was considerable (though not great), yet it lasted only
about a hundred and fifty years at the accelerated pace of production
which followed the Industrial Revolution. In that period England has
exhausted all of the best of her copper, her lead, her tin and most of her
high grade iron ores, in all of which she led the world during the early
nineteenth century. England's endowment of coal was among the richest
in the world, and according to the British geologists, only 6 percent of the
original reserve has thus far been removed. But in the course of winning
the first 6 percent, the British have been driven to use seams as thin as
14 inches and to seek thicker coal at depths as great as 3,500 feet. Because
of this, it costs Britain more labor to mine a ton of coal today than it did
fifty years ago, and the increased burden is a drag on her entire industrial
life. The problem of conservation is not to prepare for a day centuries
hence when all the coal and metal shall be gone, but to minimize the
readjustment to a stage of increasing cost which in some of the older lands
has already arrived and in the United States is only a matter of time. The
prospect is clear enough to make the prevention of needless waste a major
social responsibility.
[ 89 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
As far as the mineral and power resources are concerned, the long time
problem of conservation merges with the immediate social problem of
overdevelopment and overproduction. Both are concerned with con-
trolling the wastes of destructive competition. The task of protecting the
remaining public domain against looting by private interests — the great
objective of the Rooseveltian conservationists — was largely accomplished
by the passage of the Mineral Leasing Act and the Federal Water Power
Act, although the administration of these laws will require perpetual
vigilance. The task of devising the technical means for increasing efficiency
is making encouraging progress, and the advance of the arts of mining,
metallurgy and utilization was never more rapid than now. It remains to
organize the economics of production so as to effect the full saving of
resources which technology has already shown to be possible. The task of
the present day conservationist is to see that any change in economic
organization for the control of production which is undertaken to insure
steadier profits and wages should also operate to prevent needless waste
of the underlying resources.
Part 2.— AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND
BY O. E. BAKER
I. THE PROBLEM
Two developments of the past decade have greatly reduced the pro-
spective need for farm land, made former land policies obsolete, and raised
grave economic and social problems. These two developments, not new,
but of greatly increased importance, are the rapid progress in agricultural
technique and the rapid decline in number of births. Supplementing the
decline in births have been congressional acts and executive orders which
have gradually reduced immigration, until in 1931 emigrants exceeded
immigrants. The progress in agricultural technique tends to increase
production of farm products, while the decline in number of births tends
to decrease consumption.26 The problem is how to control the use of the
land so that production will be continuously adjusted to consumption.
Associated with this problem is another which is no less important
but which will be merely noted. Since most cities, in the absence of immi-
gration from abroad, are dependent upon the rural people, particularly
the farm people, for the prevention of a rapid decline in population after
two or three decades (in a few cities deaths already exceed births), it is
clear that, although advances in agricultural technique are economically
26 Because of the large proportion of young and middle aged people in the nation,
population and consumption of farm products probably will continue to increase for several
decades, but less rapidly than in the past. See Chap. I.
[ 90]
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desirable, the social consequences of a decreasing farm population will
be serious.
The following discussion offers no solution of these problems, but
merely summarizes some of the conditions and trends that must be taken
into consideration by those whose task it is to develop a national agri-
cultural and forest policy.
Contraction of the Crop Area. — Adjustments in the use of the land to
the demand for farm products are being made, but the process is wasteful
of wealth and human effort. As a consequence of the developments noted
above and other factors,27 contraction of the crop area, previously con-
fined almost entirely to the hill lands of the northeastern states, to the
hilly, eroded or depleted soils of the southeastern states, and to the Sierra
and northern coast counties of California, extended during the decade
1919-1929 into three-fifths of the counties of the nation. This contrac-
tion was general in the states east of the Mississippi River, in Missouri,
and in the Pacific coast states; while an equivalent expansion in crop area
occurred in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states, attributable
largely to the use of the tractor and combine. Despite an increase in popu-
lation of more than 20,000,000 since the World War, the nation's crop
acreage has remained about stationary. In 1931 it was smaller than in
any year since 1917, with the possible exception of 1924.
The pioneer age is past. There is less opportunity now than in former
times for the man with strong arms and a stout heart, but no money, to
hew a farm from the forest or plow it out of the prairie sod. This is not
primarily because nearly all except the poorest land is in private owner-
ship, for many farms can be bought for less than the cost of the buildings
— the land is given away — but rather because there is a persistent surplus
of farm products and prices are so low that even the best farmers on the
best land can scarcely make a modest living.28
Despite an increase in consumption of farm products of about 18
percent in the decade 1920-1930, the value of farm land suffered a heavy,
27 The principal other factors are changes in domestic consumption of farm products,
decline in exports, and decline in the general price level. Perhaps these should be called
facts rather than factors, for each is the result of numerous underlying factors. It is the
author's opinion that the advances in agricultural technique constituted the major factor
affecting changes in land utilization during the past decade, and that the approach toward
a stationary population will tend to increase the influence of this factor upon land utiliza-
tion in the future. Already the annual increase of population is a million less than a decade
ago. If the population increase of 1921-1923 had continued there would be about five
million more people in the United States today. This means that at the present ratio of
2.7 acres per person, 13,500,000 additional acres of crops would be required, no allowance
being made for the lesser consumption by children.
28 In the past agriculture has provided security in old age and against adversity for a
large proportion of the people. But both the security (as indicated by the great increase
in foreclosures) and the proportion of the population affected have declined rapidly,
and the cities have provided no adequate substitute. This is probably an important factor
affecting the birth rate.
[ 91 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
continuous, and almost universal decline. There has been a large increase
in ratio of mortgage debt to value of farm real estate and many fore-
closures have occurred. This trend has been accompanied by an increase
in taxes (over 100 percent, 1919 to 1929), which also has tended to depress
land values. Vast areas of both farm and forest land have become tax
delinquent in many of the less fertile areas. As a consequence, it is often
necessary to raise the tax rate on the land that remains in private owner-
ship, and this tends to accelerate delinquency and the reversion of the
land to the county or state. Frequently the county has not the means to
develop the land for forests or other purposes, and in some cases even
the states cannot do so. Through tax delinquency rather than as a result
of definite policy, a new public domain is in process of development.
Which government agency, if any, should take over this land, how it
should be managed, and what should be done about the community
burdens it formerly bore will soon become urgent problems.
Some Consequences of Agricultural Contraction. — The situation has
social as well as economic aspects and these are even more serious. Farm
population in the United States decreased 2,000,000 between 1920 and
1925 according to the census, but it is probable that the enumeration of
farm population in 1925 was incomplete, and that the decline was not
much, if any, greater than this between 1920 and 1930.29 In areas where
crop acreage is contracting persistently a large proportion of the young
people have left the farms.30 After the children have gone and as the
strength of the farmer declines with age, field after field reverts to pasture
or to brush until only the house and garden remain. Upon the death of
the farmer these may be rented or sold to summer visitors or to a less
desirable class of people who tend to drift into such areas. Schools decline
for lack of pupils as well as of funds, churches close, social life becomes
more primitive and sometimes the precarious agricultural income of the
inhabitants is supplemented by returns from illicit enterprises.
These local developments, however, are not so serious as the national
consequences of a declining rural population. In 1930 the number of
children under five years of age in cities of 100,000 population and over,
considered in relation to women 15 to 45 years of age, lacked fully 20
percent of being sufficient to maintain a stationary population.31 In the
smaller cities down to 2,500 population the deficit averaged seven percent,
29 The population inquiries in the 1925 census were incidental to the agricultural
inquiries and, apparently, were answered in many cases only for the farm family, contrary
to instructions. Moreover, owing to the change in the date of census enumeration from
January 1 in 1920 and in 1925 to April 1 in 1930 it is impossible to estimate with any preci-
sion the change in number of people on farms during the five or ten years preceding 1930.
30 See Chap. X.
31 Based on the 1927 "expectation of life" tables of the Metropolitan Life Insurance
Company. The mortality rate was unusually low in 1927, the expectation of life at birth
exceeding 60 years. See also Chap. I.
[ 92]
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while in the rural non-farm (mostly village) population there was a sur-
plus of nearly 30 percent, and in the farm population a surplus of 50
percent.
Continued decrease in the proportion of the nation's population that
is rural, which is almost certain to accompany progress in agricultural
technique unless part time farming increases rapidly, will therefore tend
to diminish the number of births in the nation.32 A further decline in
births as great as that from 1925 to 1930, unless counterbalanced by
immigrants, will involve a declining national population a few decades
hence. This in turn will involve a declining demand for farm products
unless exports or consumption per capita increase, which, entirely aside
from advances in agricultural technique, will result in another decline
in farm population. Thus a downward spiral will be set in motion, and
its reversal will be difficult to effect. That the process of rural depletion
may be accelerated in the future is indicated by a decline of 660,000, or
16 percent in the number of children under five years of age on farms
between 1920 and 1930, while persons over 55 years old increased 300,000
or nearly nine percent.
The question may be raised, however, whether a stationary or declin-
ing population is not essential to the maintenance of the standard of
living in view of the progressive depletion of natural resources. Let us
consider, therefore, the extent of depletion of the soil resources and the
outlook for the future.
II. DEPLETION OF SOIL RESOURCES
In general, American agriculture has been of an exploitative char-
acter. The conquest of a virgin continent by a fecund people governed
by democratic institutions and inspired by the spirit of laissez faire could
not have resulted in any other kind of agriculture. Fertilizers other than
animal manure have been little used, except within the last half century,
and then only in the Atlantic coast states and a few other localities. As
a consequence the nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, sulphur and other
elements of fertility removed from the soil in the crops and animals or
animal products sold from farms have not been restored except in limited
areas. Leaching of the elements of soil fertility by the rain and their
removal in the drainage waters has continued and has in some areas
perhaps even been accelerated by the destruction of the original forest or
32 At present the progress of mechanization in agriculture has practically stopped; but,
doubtless, advances in animal husbandry are continuing. If the unemployment persists, or
wages remain as low as the income to be derived from self-sufficing farming, mechaniza-
tion will be retarded, and migration from the farms to the cities will be lessened. But unless
there be a vast reversion toward primitive forms of agricultural production, a net migration
from farm to city will persist so long as there is a material increase in the farm population.
f 93 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
grass cover. More serious, the large acreage of row crops, notably cotton
and corn (in the cultivation of which the soil is exposed to the rains during
the entire period of growth), has led to widespread soil erosion.
Depletion by Crop Removal and Leaching. — In the north, particularly
in the northeastern and Great Lakes states, where climatic and soil condi-
tions, as well as the system of farming (much of the land is in hay and
pasture) have permitted little erosion as compared with the south, most
of the losses in soil resources are due to removal of the crops and leaching
by the rains. In the humid northern states the losses from the surface soil
since settlement average possibly a third of the original sulphur, a fourth
of the nitrogen, a fifth of the phosphorous and a tenth of the potassium.33
Calcium and magnesium losses have been notable in many soils. The losses
by crop removal and leaching can be restored and maintained almost
indefinitely, however, if it is found profitable to do so, for the known
deposits of minerals containing these elements seem sufficient for cen-
turies to come.
The deposits of sulphur in Texas and Louisiana are apparently ade-
quate to meet the needs of agriculture for several decades in addition to
meeting an industrial demand much larger than at present.34 When these
richer deposits are exhausted it may be necessary to fall back on the
deposits of gypsum and iron pyrite which are practically inexhaustible.
As to nitrogen, the fears of a quarter century ago that the supply would
soon be deficient have proved groundless. The rapid advance in manu-
facture of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, the nitrogen being furnished by
the air, assures a practically inexhaustible supply of such fertilizers at a
price which is likely to become lower and lower. Moreover, certain bac-
teria living on the roots of leguminous plants, and in many soils non-
symbiotic bacteria also, are constantly adding to the supply of nitrogen
in the soil. As to phosphorus, the deposits of calcium phosphate which
extend under hundreds of thousands of acres in Wyoming, Utah and
Idaho are estimated to contain at least six billion tons, and probably do
33 This is an audacious generalization. It is based, for sulphur, in part on a paper entitled
"Agricultural Aspects of Sulphur and Sulphur Compounds," by J. G. Lipman and H. G.
McLean, Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, vol. 38, no. 7, July, 1931; for nitrogen,
phosphorous and potassium on analyses of cropped and adjacent virgin soils of the same
type, supplemented by data in a paper by Dr. Lipman entitled "The Nitrogen Outlook,"
Journal of the American Society of Agronomy, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 227-237, 1932; and for
potassium by lysimeter (leaching) measurements at Cornell University.
The most complete series of soil analyses were supplied by Robert M. Salter of the
Ohio Agricultural Experiment Station, and less extensive data by F. L. Duley (Kansas),
Hans Jenny (Missouri), M. F. Morgan (Connecticut), D. A. Shutt (Dominion Experi-
mental Farms, Ottawa), A. R. Whitson (Wisconsin), F. A. Wyatt (Alberta). It is necessary
to add that some soil scientists believe the margin of error in taking soil samples and in
chemical analysis is so great that conclusions based on analyses of virgin and cropped soils
are likely to be invalid.
34 U. S. Bureau of Mines, Robert H. Ridgway, Sulphur, Information Circular, no. 6329,
August, 1930.
[ 94 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
contain twice this amount.35 These are sufficient, when the Florida,
South Carolina and Tennessee sources are depleted, to provide for several
hundred years an adequate quantity of phosphate fertilizer for 500,000,-
000 acres of crop and pasture land — an area greater than that in crops and
plowable pasture at present. As to potassium, the reserves in Germany,
France, Poland and Spain are estimated to contain enough potash salts
to meet the world's need for 5,000 years. Should these supplies be cut off,
recent discoveries in New Mexico and western Texas indicate a deposit
perhaps even greater than that in the Stassfurt district36 and almost as
easily worked. The supplies of limestone, much of which contains magne-
sium as well as calcium, are, as is well known, unlimited.
These are the only elements of fertility whose application to the soil
seems likely to be needed over extensive areas. Certain soils need manga-
nese, others copper, others iron, but such soils are, apparently, of small
extent and the supplies of these elements are ample. Depletion of soil
fertility by crop removal, grazing and leaching, although it may somewhat
increase cost of production, need cause no anxiety as to the nation's
food supply for several hundred years to come, and then only with
reference to phosphorus.37
Depletion by Erosion. — In the south and southwest, and also in a
number of areas in the north, erosion has been the principal source of soil
depletion. This is a much more serious loss, for the humus of the surface
soil, the crumb-like structure of this top layer, its water-holding capacity,
bacterial content and all the other features which make it normally more
fertile than the subsoil, can be replaced very slowly and practically never
can be restored in most soils. It is estimated by the United States Bureau
of Chemistry and Soils that "something like 17,500,000 acres of land
which were formerly cultivated in this country have been destroyed by
gullying, or so severly washed that farmers cannot afford to attempt their
cultivation or reclamation."38 In addition, three or four million acres of
river bottom land have been covered with sand and gravel and greatly
reduced in fertility or rendered untillable.
In the Piedmont of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia "probably not
less than 60 percent of all the upland . . . has lost from 4 to 18 inches
36 Mitchell, Guy E., "America's Resources in Nitrogen, Potash, and Phosphorus,"
Economic Geography, October, 1928, vol. 4, p. 372.
36 U. S. Bureau of Mines, James S. Wroth, Commercial Possibilities of the Texas-New
Mexico Potash Deposits, 1930, Bulletin no. 316, p. 118.
37 But it may be recalled that the soils of China have supported for hundreds, if not
thousands, of years a larger population than that of the United States on a smaller area of
cultivated land, and without recourse to mineral fertilizers.
38 U. S. State Department, H. H. Bennett of the United States Bureau of Chemistry
and Soils, Documentary Material for the Inter- American Conference in Agriculture, Forestry
and Animal Husbandry, October, 1930, p. 61. It is interesting to note that this is a greater
acreage than the total area of arable land in Japan.
[95 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of its soil and subsoil . . . [and] many of the gullies have cut down to
bed rock."39 In Illinois there are at least 9,000,000 acres of low value land
subject to serious erosion, more than one-half of which is hardly suitable
for cultivated crops, and there are more than 14,000,000 acres of high
value land in which erosion is gradually approaching a stage where gullies
are being formed.40 At the Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station
measurements on a gently sloping field, typical of the soil and slope of
much of the northern portion of the state, show a loss of over 245 tons of
soil per acre continuously in corn during the twelve years the experiment
has been in progress, 111 tons from land continuously in wheat, but of
only 35 tons from land in a rotation of corn, wheat and clover, indicating
that the surface soil, averaging seven inches deep, will last for 50 to 350
years, depending upon the cropping system. If put into blue-grass pasture
it would require 2,800 years to remove the top seven inches of soil, which
may be no more rapid than the process of soil development. It is estimated
that "about one-fourth of the surface area of Missouri is subject to severe
erosion, that one-fourth is subject to moderate erosion, and about one-half
to light or negligible erosion."41
In Oklahoma, a recent reconnaissance erosion survey of the state
indicated that more than 13,000,000 of the nearly 16,000,000 acres in
crops were suffering from the effects of severe soil washing. Of this eroding
area, nearly 6,000,000 acres had reached the stage of gullying. Of 1,700,000
acres of crop land abandoned, it is estimated that 1,360,000 acres were
abandoned largely because of erosion.42 In the opinion of the Experiment
Station workers two-thirds to three-fourths of the erosion losses in the
state have occurred in the last ten years.43 It is the consensus among
those in charge of the erosion survey of the Department of Agriculture,
now in progress, that probably a third of the surface soil has been removed
from one-fourth of the cultivated land of the United States, and that a
sixth or more of the surface soil has been lost from another fourth of the
farm land.44
39 Ibid., p. 81. However, Piedmont soils, unlike most soils, permit the profitable
cultivation of the subsoil.
40 Mumford, H. W., Director of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station, in a letter to
the Secretary of Agriculture.
41 Miller, M. F., Professor of Soils, in a letter to the writer. See also Missouri Agri-
cultural Experiment Station, Research Bulletin no. 63, p. 31, and Progress Reports of
"Soil Erosion and Run Off Experiments in Piedmont, North Carolina," by F. O. Bartel,
mimeographed by U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Engineering.
42 Soil Erosion Survey of Oklahoma, Extension Service, Agricultural and Mechanical
Arts College, Stillwater, 1929, p. 2. The survey was made by the Experiment Station.
43 Blackwell, C. P., Director of Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, in a letter
to the writer. Data supplied by H. V. Geib, of the U. S. Bureau of Chemistry and Soils,
indicate that erosion in parts of Texas is progressing almost as rapidly.
44 Bennett, H. H., "The Problem of Soil Erosion," Annals of Association of American
Geographers, September, 1931.
NATURAL WEALTH
With regard to losses by erosion in the future the situation is rendered
more serious by the fact that as the organic material in the soil is depleted
by tillage and resultant oxidation, and as removal of the surface soil
exposes the more compact subsoil, gullying generally increases rapidly.
Unless cropping practices are changed and terraces constructed and
maintained on much of the sloping land of the south, southwest and
central west, and locally elsewhere, possibly 100 million acres of crop
LAND IN
HARVESTED
CROPS
359
FOREST AND
CUT-OVER LAND
NOT REQUIRING
DRAINAGE
230
Ml ARID DRY
FARMING MOSTLY
PASTURE AT
PRESENT
90
5UBHUMID LAND
MOSTLY PASTURE
AT PRESENT
IDLE OR FALLOW
PLOW LAND
41
All figures in millions of acres
EXTREME PHYSICAL POSSIBILITY 973 MILLION ACRES
FIG. 1. — Land capable of use for crops, 1929.
Somewhat over a third of the land physically capable of crop production was in crops in 1929, roughly
another third needed only plowing to be put into crops (shaded with differing designs in the pictogram), while
the remaining third required irrigation, drainage, or clearing of forest growth.
land may become gullied and more or less unfit for cultivation within
50 or 75 years. This is a fourth of the present crop area and a fifth of the
improved land of the nation.
But the land resources of the United States are so vast that the loss of
many millions of acres of crop land by erosion probably would not
seriously affect the national production. There are about 300,000,000
acres of land now used mostly for pasture which need only plowing to be
put into crops. (Figure 1.) Most of this land is less fertile than that at
[ 97 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
present in crops, but it constitutes a vast reserve. Even in the cotton-
growing states where erosion is most severe, there are approximately 100
million acres of level to gently rolling land on the South Atlantic and Gulf
Coastal Plain which could be cleared of forest or brush and cultivated
profitably with the aid of fertilizer should economic conditions become
favorable.
Thus erosion need cause no anxiety as to the supply of food or even
of fibers for the nation as a whole in the near future; but in the areas where
erosion is severe its control is a matter of the utmost importance. In many
places it already has brought about abject poverty. Not only is the fer-
tility of the soil being depleted in these eroding areas, and the cultivation
of many fields becoming difficult, but the further mechanization of agricul-
ture, particularly in the west, and the more extensive use of fertilizers on
the better lands of the north and east seem likely to make competition in
crop production increasingly difficult. Although terracing will retard ero-
sion where it is practiced, it appears that the hilly and rolling lands of the
south and southwest and in parts of the north central states also, are
going the way of similar lands in southern China.45
III. THE ADVANCE IN AGRICULTURAL TECHNIQUE
Despite the depletion of the land resources of the nation, agricultural
production has been greater during the past decade than ever before, not
only in the aggregate but also in production per acre and per person
employed. As in coal mining, although the resources are less abundant,
methods and machinery have improved so rapidly that a surplus has
developed, both of people and of products.
Production per Worker. — Ninety years ago about 60 or 70 percent of
all men having an occupation were employed in agriculture.46 The
percentages are now almost reversed, as 75 percent were engaged in other
occupations than agriculture on April 1, 1930. The average American
farmer, after allowing for the services of the hired laborer, in addition to
feeding three other persons in his family, now provides food and fibers
for twelve people living in American cities or elsewhere than on farms and
two more persons living in foreign countries, a total of 18 in all. The shift
46 F. L. Duley of the Kansas State College of Agriculture notes: "Terracing alone is
not a cure for erosion. It should be combined with other well recognized practices, such as
good crop rotation to keep the land protected with a growing crop as much as possible, and
also with contour cropping of row crops to further enhance water absorption."
S. H. McCrory, Chief of the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Engineering, comments:
"Recent developments in theory and technique of terracing and recently renewed interest
in the construction of terraces indicate the feasibility of a rather complete control of erosion
in many cultivated areas."
46 It should be noted that prior to the modern era of division of labor many farmers
spent a portion of their time in work not essentially agricultural, which work is now per-
formed by persons in specialized occupations in the cities.
F 98 1
NATURAL WEALTH
from a predominantly rural to an urban civilization has been made
possible by the advance in agricultural technique, particularly in the
application of power.
Nevertheless, production per person engaged in several types of
farming has not increased as rapidly as is commonly assumed and there is
a wide margin available for further advance. The increase in efficiency
has been notable principally in the production of the small grain and hay
crops. Cotton today is picked by hand, as it was a century ago, most of
the corn is still husked or snapped by hand and practically all the fruit
is picked by hand, while much of the fruit has to be sprayed also, which
was not done a century ago.47 Furthermore, the machinery used today
represents urban labor and capital and a cost which was not involved
when the farmer made his own tools. This cost probably amounts to
$50 or less annually per male farm worker, or about 4 percent of his
production.48
Crop production per male worker in agriculture has increased nearly
two and a half times during the past 90 years and agricultural production
per worker has apparently increased about three-fold.49 The increase in
crop production per worker may have been as much as 25 percent from
1850 to 1860, was roughly 50 percent from 1850 to 1900, and approxi-
mately 30 percent during the last 30 years. During the last ten years crop
production per worker has increased less than 10 percent but agricultural
production per worker has increased about 25 percent.
The five years from 1922 to 1926 are in several ways the most remark-
able in the history of American agriculture. (Figure 2.) Agricultural
47 C. P. Blackwell, Director of the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station, notes:
" In 1926 more than 1,000,000 bales of cotton were harvested by the sled ... In large
areas the method of hand picking has changed to snapping. A worker can pick in this way
two to three times as much per day as by the old method. Successful cotton pickers are not
far in the future."
48 This estimate is based on two sources : (a) The U. S. Census Bureau, Census of Agricul-
ture data for 1925 and 1930 on value of machinery on farms, to which figures on depreciation
were applied, checked against the census figures on expenditure for implements and
machinery in 1929. This method indicates an annual expenditure of $50 to $70 per worker.
The calculations were made by the writer. (&) The U. S. Census Bureau, Census of Manu-
factures on value of farm machinery produced each year 1920-1930, from which was sub-
tracted value of net exports. The resultant figure was increased 25 percent to allow for
dealers' margins and transportation costs. This method indicates an annual expenditure
of $50 per worker. The calculations were made by W. M. Hurst, of the Bureau of Agricul-
tural Engineering.
If the tractors are subtracted, because they are primarily a substitute for horses, the
annual cost of machinery per male worker is reduced to about $35.
49 The estimates of production are preliminary; they are supplied by the U. S. Bureau
of Agricultural Economics. Agricultural production consists of crop production, plus
animal products, less crop feed consumed by livestock, the various products being combined
on the basis of the average farm price during the period 1917-1926. Price is the only common
denominator. The index includes the contribution of pasturage and accounts for the
economies resulting from the substitution of gasoline for horse feed and from other factors.
[99]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
production increased about 27 percent, while crop acreage remained
practically stationary and labor engaged in agriculture declined. Com-
paring this five-year period with the preceding five-year period, agri-
cultural production per year of labor employed in agriculture increased
about 16 percent. Since 1926 agricultural production has not increased
but this is owing largely to adversities of the weather. In the decade
PER CENT
150
I4O
130
IZO
I IO
IOO
Production, !9O7-l9lf\
Population, 1907 -I9H I
Crop Acreage, 1907 -I9H (-
Months of Labor. I909\
80
1905
1910
19 5
1925
FIG. 2. — Agricultural production, national population, crop land, and farm labor. Percent-
age change, 1906-1931.
Although agricultural production is now a third greater than twenty years ago, crop acreage is only an eighth
greater, and quantity of labor employed in agriculture is somewhat less than in 1909. Production per acre
has, therefore, increased nearly 20 percent, and production per man nearly 40 percent. Most of this increase
has occurred since the World War. The increase in production per acre between 1919 and 1929, two fairly normal
years, was about 16 percent, practically none of which is owing to increase in acre-yields of the crops, while
the increase in production per man was about 26 percent. It will be noted that agricultural production has just
about kept pace with population growth during the past 25 years. (Courtesy, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural
Economics.)
1922-1931 agricultural production per worker was about 22 percent
greater than in the decade 1912-1921.
An important factor in the rapid rise in agricultural production during
the past decade and the doubling of the rate of increase of production per
worker has been the decline in number of horses and mules brought about
by the introduction of the tractor and automobile and the consequent
release of a large amount of feed for meat and milk animals.50 In view of
60 Scientific research, particularly the work of the experiment stations, and the dissemi-
nation of this knowledge among farmers, has been accused of promoting excessive agricul-
tural production, and as one of the causes, therefore, of the present very low prices for
farm products. It should be noted, however, that probably two-thirds of the increase in
[ 100 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
this substitution of gasoline for horse feed, the increasing production of
meat and milk per unit of feed consumed and the shifts from the less
productive toward the more productive crops and classes of livestock, it
is clear that not all, indeed probably not over half of the increased produc-
tion per worker during recent years, can be attributed directly to the use
of more power per worker.
I860
1870
1880
1890
1920
FIG. 3. — Estimated total horse power available on farms of the United States.
The rapid increase in mechanical power on farms since 1900 is clearly shown in this graph; indeed, is exag-
gerated, perhaps, since full rated horse power is used for gas and electric motors; and, in general, these are not
used so many days or hours in the year as are horses and mules. For example, the average belt horse power of
gas tractors in 1930 was nearly 24, whereas the number of horses replaced by a tractor probably would not
average over six. On the other hand, automobiles, which have replaced many horses, are excluded. It is signifi-
cant that animal power on farms began to decline about 1918 and by 1930 was smaller than in 1890. Meanwhile,
mechanical power increased at an accelerating rate, until by 1930 the power available in various engines and
motors on farms (excluding automobiles but including trucks) was nearly three times that available in the horses
and mules. Nevertheless, horses and mules are still supplying probably half of the power actually used on farms,
and if prices of farm products continue low and money scarce, animal power may increase in the future rather
than diminish. Graph from "Power and Machinery; their Part in Agriculture," by W. M. Hurst and L. M.
Church, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Technical Bulletin, 1932.
Production and Power. — It is interesting to compare the increasing
amount of power available on farms with the increase in agricultural
production per farm worker. Animal power per male worker on farms has
varied between 1.4 and 2.1 horse power during the past 80 years. (Figure
production during the decade 1919-1929 is owing directly or indirectly to mechanization,
and that this has been promoted principally by commercial agencies. Moreover, there
has been no increase in production since 1926. Since there are many people who need more
milk, more meat, more fruit and vegetables, as well as more non-agricultural goods and
services, and are willing to work to secure these, it is clear that it is not the natural sciences
that have failed to serve the people.
[ 101 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
3.) Mechanical power per male worker increased from 0.1 horse power in
1880 to about 5.6 horse power in 1930. Total power per worker increased
from about 1.5 horse power in 1850 to 2.5 in 1900 and 7.4 in 1930.51
Crop production per male worker increased about 80 percent between
1849 and 1899 (average 1897-1901), which was more rapid than the
increase in power per worker; remained almost stationary (3 percent
increase) between 1899 (average 1897-1901) and 1909 (average 1907-
1911), as compared with an increase of about 9 percent in total power per
worker; and advanced 16 percent between 1909 (average 1907-1911) and
1919 (average 1917-1921), as compared with a 35 percent increase in
power per worker, the increase being almost wholly in mechanical power.
During the decade 1919-1929 crop production per worker increased
nearly 12 percent and agricultural production per worker about 28
percent, while total power available per worker increased about 100
percent. Power on farms during the past decade, as in the two preceding
decades, has increased much more rapidly than production per worker.
This is owing in part to assignment of full rated horse power to tractors,
gas engines and other mechanical sources of power on farms, which gener-
ally are idle a larger proportion of the year than are horses and mules;
but undoubtedly the advance of crop cultivation onto less productive
lands per unit of power applied has been another factor.
Possibilities of Increase in Production per Worker. — Corn and cotton
constitute about 40 percent of the total acreage of all crops in the United
States and their production requires about half of the aggregate labor on
crops. The corn harvester is here and apparently the mechanical cotton
picker is not far away. Should the production of cotton become as thor-
oughly mechanized as the production of the small grains, the average
area of cotton per family farm would probably be over 100 acres, as
compared with 20 acres in the eastern cotton belt and 40 acres in the
Texas portion of the belt today. Similarly the average area of corn per
farm in the corn belt might well exceed 100 acres as compared with 17
acres per farm reporting corn in Ohio today, 27 acres in Indiana and 44
acres in Illinois.52 But there are great difficulties in the way of such
mechanization in the corn and cotton belts, and if the change should
come it will be a slow development.
However, there is much labor in farming other than that on crops
and a better way of estimating the increase in production per worker in
agriculture when the corn harvester and cotton picker become commonly
used, is to assume that production per worker, or, preferably per year of
labor, will be as high in the eastern corn belt and the cotton belt as it is
61 Data on mechanical power from W. M. Hurst, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Engineer-
ing. Tractors given belt power and trucks rated horse power, but automobiles excluded.
52 The average area in wheat per farm reporting exceeded 100 acres in the Dakotas,
Kansas and Oklahoma in 1929.
f 102 1
NATURAL WEALTH
now in the western corn belt and wheat regions. In Figure 4b, it will be
noted that during the period 1924-1928 agricultural production per year
of labor averaged about $2,900 in Iowa, $2,800 in Nebraska, $2,200 in
Kansas and $2,300 to $2,500 in the Dakotas and Montana.83 In the
eastern corn belt states production per year of labor decreased from
$2,100 in Illinois to $1,400 in Ohio. In the cotton belt states the decrease
was from $1,600 in Oklahoma to $900 in South Carolina.
In the Great Lakes and middle Atlantic states average production
per year of labor is similar to that in the eastern corn belt, $2,200 in
Minnesota, $1,900 in Wisconsin, $1,700 in New Jersey, $1,500 in New
York, $1,300 in Pennsylvania and a range of from $1,400 to $1,000 in
New England. If expenditure for feed were subtracted, the figures would
be reduced by about $300 in New England and New York. These figures
for the northeastern states are as low as those for the cotton belt but in
southern New England and to a lesser extent in New York, the average
is undoubtedly lowered by the many "part time" farmers who work in
urban factories, offices or stores; and in many localities in this north-
eastern region income from farming is supplemented greatly by enter-
tainment of summer boarders and tourists. Rather than a notable increase
in mechanization and in agricultural production per worker, it seems
likely that there will be a further development of the tourist industry
and of part time employment in manufacturing and commerce in New
England and the hill lands of New York.
For the United States as a whole agricultural production per year of
labor employed averaged about $1,500 during this five-year period (1924—
1928, with products at 1917-1926 prices). The average for the western
corn belt and the wheat states is $2,500. Since these states possess the most
fertile soil in the United States and the farms are already fairly large, it
cannot be expected that the universal mechanization of agriculture would
raise average production per labor year to as high a point as in the central
west; but it does seem wholly possible that an increase of 33 percent may
be achieved for the nation as a whole. This is about the same percentage
increase as has occurred during the past 30 years.
Production per Acre. — Prior to the World War the increase in agri-
cultural production took place principally in two ways: (1) by expansion
of the area in crops, generally at the expense of pasture or forest, which
are less intensive uses of the land than crop production, and the expansion
of pasture at the expense of forest or unused land; and (2) by securing
greater acre-yields of the crops or higher carrying capacity of the pas-
53 Quantity of each crop sold or consumed in farm household, and quantity of animal
products produced, multiplied by average farm price in the United States as a whole
during the decade 1917-1926, as a common denominator. Data used were from "Farm
Value, Gross Income and Cash Income from Farm Production," (Mimeographed), Bureau
of Agricultural Economics, Washington, March, 1930.
[ 103]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
FIG. 4A. — Horse power available per full time agricultural worker, 1924.
*/700-*200O
*2lOO AND OVCR
FIG. 4s. — Average annual agricultural production per full time worker (year of labor),
1924-1928.
Almost universally in the United States increased power per worker is accompanied by increased production.
The smallest quantity of power available per farm worker is in Alabama and Mississippi. Here an average of
one horse or mule per worker is associated with a production of $1,000. In the Dakotas, 14 horse power per worker
is associated with a production of $2,400. In general, each additional horse power per workerincreasesproduction
$100 to $200. The value of feed may be nearly $100 per horse, but in most states nearly all the feed is produced
on the farm. Livestock provide an income supplementary to crop production without involving the use of much
power. This larger income is notable in the arid grazing states of the far west. Agricultural production data
compiled from "Farm Value, Gross Income and Cash Income from Farm Production," Bureau of Agricultural
Economics, Washington, March, 1930. Horse power from "An Appraisal of Power on Farms," by Cl D.
Kinsman, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Department Bulletin no. 1348, 1925.
[ 104 1
NATURAL WEALTH
tures. These two means of increasing production, particularly the expan-
sion of agriculture across the continent, were so obvious that the existence
of other means was scarcely recognized. Expansion of the crop area
horizontally and the piling up of production perpendicularly seemed to
exhaust the possibilities. That agriculture possessed a fourth, a fifth and
even a sixth dimension was seldom surmised.
After 1919 crop acreage declined until 1924 and was only about as
large in 1929 as in 1919, while pasture acreage increased little if any.
Moreover, acre-yields of the crops taken as a whole remained practically
stationary and the productiveness of the pastures probably has declined.
Nevertheless, agricultural production increased nearly 13 percent between
the five-year period centered on 1919 and that centered on 1924, which
was a greater increase than that between any adjacent five-year periods
since the beginning of the century. It increased 5 percent more between
the five-year periods centered on 1924 and 1929. This recent slackening in
the rate of increase is assignable largely to exceptional weather conditions.
Four groups of factors account for the increase in agricultural pro-
duction since the World War:
1. Substitution of Gasoline for Horse and Mule Feed. — The loss of about
9,000,000 horses and mules (of all ages) on farms between 1918 (the year
of maximum) and 1932, and of probably over a million more in cities,
has released about 30,000,000 acres of crop land, besides much pasturage.
This land has been used not only to feed meat and milk animals, but also
to produce cotton and wheat. Some of it lies idle. (Figure 5.)
The use of larger units of power has also had indirect effects. It has
permitted the production of wheat at a low price on many million acres
of semi-arid land in the region of the Great Plains, causing corresponding
reduction of wheat acreage east of the Missouri River. Some of this former
wheat acreage went into corn, some into oats, hay or other crops, and
some lay idle. The corn acreage expanded in the west, particularly in the
northern and western corn belt; and this expansion, in conjunction with
the corn released by the decline in horses and mules, helped to make the
production of corn unprofitable in parts of the south and east with a
resultant rapid decline in acreage. Part of this former corn acreage went
into cotton and other crops and some lay idle. The increased production
of corn and other feed crops in the northwest, and decreased consumption
by horses, were important factors in the notable increase in the produc-
tion of pork and milk. In the south, where the swine are, in general, less
efficient in transforming feed into food, and where feed is more expensive,
the number of animals declined nearly 40 percent during the decade
January 1, 1920-January 1, 1930.
2. Improvements in Animal Husbandry. — Almost as important as the
mechanization of crop production has been the increasing production of
[ 105 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
meat and milk per unit of feed consumed. The increase in all animal
products (other than power) since the World War has been about 23
percent, whereas crop feed available for meat and milk animals has
increased not more than 13 percent, while the feed from pasturage prob-
ably has declined slightly. This increased production is assignable to the
culling of cows, the slaughter of cattle, sheep and swine at an earlier age
(young animals make greater gains on the same amount of feed than older
CROP LAND LYING IDLE OR FALLOW
Acreage. 1929
FIG. 5. — Crop land lying idle or fallow, 1929.
In the western half of the map (the western portion of the Dakotas, also of Nebraska and Kansas to a less
extent, and west) the dots represent mostly summer fallow in preparation for the grain crop the following year.
But in the eastern half of the United States practically all the area represented, over 25,000,000 acres, is former
crop land now lying idle. The dense area in southern Illinois and Indiana and in western Kentucky is in a region
of fair to poor soils, where farmers grow corn, wheat and hay and, in the Kentucky portion, tobacco, but find
it difficult to compete with better lands or larger farms elsewhere. Higher wages in the cities was another factor.
The idle land in southern Michigan and New York also is owing in part to competition of urban industries
for the labor of the farmers and farm hands. The idle land in the Piedmont of New Jersey, Virginia, the Carolines
and Georgia is owing to both the factors noted above and to erosion, also to the boll weevil in South Carolina
and Georgia. (Courtesy, U. <S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics.)
animals), reduction in death losses by better sanitation, particularly
among hogs, a vast shift in pork production from the south to the north-
west, where the stock is better and more efficient in transforming feed
into pork and lard, the use of minerals in feeding, and many other causes.
These improvements in animal husbandry have probably added the
equivalent of 25,000,000 acres to the crop area.54
64 There were about 15 percent more dairy cows in the United States in 1931 than at
the close of the World War (average 1918-1920). Nevertheless, production of milk was 35
or 40 percent greater. The cows eat more, but the increase in feed consumed has probably
not been over 25 percent. Similarly, there are 9 percent fewer hogs on farms than at the
close of the war, but the production of pork and lard, as estimated, is 18 percent greater
(average of 1918-1920 compared with 1928-1930).
[ 106 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
Looking to the future, this factor undoubtedly will continue to be of
great importance in the economizing of farm land, for culling of dairy
cows and reduction of losses of pigs through sanitation and better feeding
can and probably will continue for many years. Gains through slaughter
at an earlier age and through shifts in production from south to north
will undoubtedly be less important than during the past decade, because
such shifts probably are nearly completed.
3. Shifts from Less Productive toward More Productive Crops per Acre. —
Less important, yet a significant factor, particularly from the standpoint
of the crop land requirements of the nation, has been the shift from corn
to cotton in the south,55 from wheat to corn in the west north central
states, and from grain and hay to fruit and vegetables in several areas,
notably California. There is no assurance that these shifts will continue
in the future.
4. Shifts from Less Productive toward More Productive Animals per
Unit of Feed Consumed. — Likewise, there has been a shift from beef
cattle to dairy cattle, hogs and chickens, which produce much more food
per unit of feed consumed.56 During the next few years this factor may
sink into insignificance or disappear, owing to the probable upward trend
of the beef cattle cycle ; but later, when the number of beef cattle declines,
this factor is again likely to become of some importance.
Practically all of the increase in agricultural production per acre since
the World War may be assigned to these four factors, and most of it to
the decline in horses and mules and improvements in animal husbandry.
These two factors alone have added to the effective crop area the equiva-
lent of about 55,000,000 acres, an increase of about 18 percent. Should
these factors be only half as effective in increasing production per
acre during the next decade there will be little need to increase the arable
area in order to provide for the expected population, assuming no in-
crease in immigration.57
Outlook for Crop Yields. — In the future, it seems probable that a
greater use of fertilizers will supplement the four factors just noted.
Fertilizers have become very cheap, and the price of nitrogen, the most
expensive of the ingredients in mixed fertilizers, seems likely to fall still
further with improvements in the new processes of production. Moreover,
66 The progress of diversification in the south prompted by the colleges of agriculture
and other agencies, together with recent price factors have slowed down this tendency.
See also discussion of shifts in crops and their consequences in Chap. X.
66 To produce 1,400,000 calories (the average annual disappearance of foodstuffs
per person in the United States) of the following foods requires the acreage indicated (at
average United States yields per acre) :
Beef and veal, 11.0 acres of crops and 2.5 acres of pasture.
Milk, 2.35 acres of crops and 1.6 acres of pasture.
Pork and lard, 3.1 acres of crops and 0.1 acre of pasture.
67 For population estimates, see Chap. I.
f 107 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the trend toward fertilizers of greater concentration has already resulted
in a notable saving in freight charges and in the cost of application to the
soil. Also important has been the research work of experiment stations
and the National Fertilizer Association in method and time of applica-
tion. The use of mineral fertilizers is spreading from the eastern states,
in several of which acre-yields have been increased 50 to 75 percent dur-
ing the past 30 years, into the central states; and the evidence is conclu-
sive as to the advantage of using fertilizers on some of the fertile soils in
Iowa at a normal level of prices for farm products.
IV. THE TREND IN LAND UTILIZATION
The depletion of soil fertility and the advance in agricultural technique
have greatly affected the utilization of the land in large areas.
LAND IN HARVESTED CROPS
Increase in Acreage. 1919-1929
FIG. 6. — Land in harvested crops. Increase in acreage, 1919-1929.
The increase in crop area between 1919 and 1929 occurred mostly in the semi-arid portion of the Great
Plains Region, where the tractor, combine and other labor saving machinery made it possible to grow grain
profitably at the prices then prevailing. The building of good roads and the coming of the auto truck may
have facilitated this development. A notable increase occurred also in southwestern Minnesota and north
central Iowa and in the Mississippi River bottoms of Mississippi and northeastern Arkansas. In these areas
much land had been drained during the decade but most of the Minnesota and Iowa gain was owing to a severe
drought in 1919 which greatly reduced the acreage harvested. The increase in the 1,130 counties in the United
States reporting an increase exceeded 33,000,000 acres. (Courtesy, U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics.)
The Trend in Agricultural Land Utilization. — In many parts of the
United States rapidly increasing agricultural production per worker and
per acre, occurring concurrently with the diminishing growth of popula-
tion and declining exports of farm products, while domestic per capita
consumption remained almost stationary, has forced vast geographic
shifts in production both of crops and of live stock products and has
accelerated the migration from the farms to the cities and villages.
[ 108 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
Some Causes of the Regional Shift in Crop Area. — The increase in crop
acreage since the World War has occurred mostly in the Great Plains
region, a grassland in which the fertility of the soil has been increased
through centuries by the decaying grass roots, and in which the leaching
of the soil has been greatly reduced by the moderate to low precipitation,
particularly in winter. (Figure 6.) The decline in crop area has occurred
mostly in that portion of the United States which was forested originally
— i.e., eastern Texas and Oklahoma, much of Missouri, southern Illinois,
practically all of Indiana and Michigan and eastward to the Atlantic.
LAND IN HARVESTED CROPS
Decrease in Acreage. 1919-1929
•i,
FIG. 7. — Land in harvested crops. Decrease in acreage, 1910-1929.
A decrease in crop area of over 32,000,000 acres occurred between 1919 and 1929 in 1,940 counties located
mostly in the originally forested portion of the United States. The outstanding decrease was in the Piedmont
of Georgia and South Carolina and in a belt extending from southern New England across New York, southern
Michigan, Ohio, southern Indiana and Illinois and most of Kentucky and Missouri, to eastern Oklahoma and
central Texas. Part of this land is used for pasture, part lies idle, and part is growing up to brush. The soils
in these areas are, in general, poor or fair, but some are good. Much of the land is hilly or steeply rolling, while
many of the farms are small and poorly adapted to large scale machinery. (Courtesy, U. S. Bureau of Agricul-
tural Economics.)
(Figure 7.) In this region, the soils are, in general, less fertile than in the
prairie and plains regions ; and there is also much hilly and steeply rolling
land, some of which has been badly eroded. Other soils have been depleted
of fertility by crop removal or destruction of the humus.58 Yet it is
probable that this shift in crop acreage has been induced, for the most
part, by the mechanization of agriculture, which has lowered the cost of
68 The percentage decrease in crop acreage between 1919 and 1924 in the eastern United
States (17 Great Plains and far western states excluded) tabulated by counties classified
according to average value of farm land per acre in 1920 was as follows: under $25 an acre:
12 percent decrease; $25-$50: 10 percent; $50-$100: 9 percent; $100-$200: 5 percent; over
$200: 1.5 percent.
f 109 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
production, particularly of the cereals, below the level that the less
favored areas can bear. Mechanization has been promoted in the west
by the more level as well as more fertile land and by the fact that in the
settlement of the prairies and plains most of the land needed only plowing
to be ready for crops, hence farms were occupied in much larger units
than in the east where forests had to be removed and stumps grubbed out.
It required the good part of a life time in the east to clear 100 acres of
land and prepare it for crops. All along the prairie margin the average
acreage of improved land per farm usually doubles within a few miles
from the former margin of the forest. In the east it is likely that the
smaller size of farms and the large loss of investment in buildings (often
50 percent of the farm value) involved in consolidating farms into the
larger units essential to the economic use of large machinery, have been
as important factors in retarding mechanization as the unfavorable topog-
raphy. Moreover, the development of dairying and other intensive
forms of livestock husbandry has increased the labor requirements on
small farms, and counterbalanced in part the tendency toward mechaniza-
tion and larger farms. Furthermore, dairymen and poultrymen in the
east can generally buy grain from the west more cheaply than they can
raise it with the most modern machinery. Progress in mechanization of
agriculture in the east will doubtless continue to be slow. The progress
will be still slower if urban unemployment persists or wages remain low.
In the cotton belt mechanization may be more rapid, particularly
wherever the plantation system of farm ownership and operation is
extensively developed, and provided a successful cotton picker is placed
on the market. The price of cotton or wages may need to rise also to near
the pre-depression level. The large units of land are already in existence,
and relief from the responsibility of furnishing a livelihood to tens and
sometimes hundreds of tenants and croppers will be a powerful motive
with many land owners, particularly if the times are prosperous and the
labor can find employment elsewhere. These large plantations are usually
located on the more level and more fertile land. Should the use of the
cotton picker become common, the reaction upon cotton producers in
the steeply rolling or hilly districts will undoubtedly be severe. The cotton
picker may compel a migration of a magnitude unparalleled in our history
from the hill lands as well as from the level lands of the cotton belt to
the cities.
Rural Migration. — Since the World War most of the migration from
the farms to the cities has come from the south and the eastern corn belt.
(Figure 8.) The future migration is likely to be principally a continuation
and possibly an accentuation of present trends. The industrial revolution
which has required a century in the north may occur in a much shorter
period in the south. When it is accomplished, this region, the principal
[ no]
NATURAL WEALTH
source of migrants to the cities, will be depleted of a large proportion of its
young people.
It is inevitable that serious social as well as economic problems will
arise during the process of consolidation and abandonment of farms. Cost
Total Net Migration
S. 096.000*
FROM FAPM3
fROM FARMS - WHITE S NCQRO
TO FARM3
FIG. 8. — Approximate net migration of rural farm population, January 1, 1920-April 1,
1930.
About 60 percent of the net migration from the farms during the decade 1920-1930 was from the south
(states south of the Potomac and Ohio rivers, and including Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas).
Negroes constituted one-third of this migration from southern farms. A majority of these migrants were between
15 and 30 years of age. The birth rate is high among southern rural people, both white and negro and economic
opportunity is less than in the north. But if it costs only $2,000 to rear and educate a child to the age of fifteen
($135 a year and no allowance for interest), these 3,500,000 migrants from farms in the southern states represent
a contribution of roughly $7,000,000,000 made during the decade by the farm population of the south to other
parts of the nation, mostly to the cities in both the north and the south. Hundreds of millions more dollars have
been transferred from the rural to the urban population in the settlement of estates, or in the payment of
interest on mortgages that have resulted from such settlement of estates. The flow from farms was heavy also
in the eastern and southern corn belt (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri). In California, Massachusetts and
Rhode Island, on the other hand, more people moved to farms than from farms.
The migration is estimated by comparing the number of persons in each 5 year age group in the rural farm
population in 1930 with the number in each age group 10 years younger in 1920 that would be expected to sur-
vive, using expectation of life figures based on comparison 1920 with 1930 of the native whites in such age groups
in the United States as a whole and of negroes for the negro population in the southern states. Migration of
children born on farms during the decade is not included.
per capita of providing schools and other social services will tend to
increase.59 In some cases the county or town can aid the individual in
making readjustments, as for example, by moving isolated farm families
to better locations near other farmers, in order to avoid the expense of
69 In Kansas, for example, consolidation of farms, the decline in births and other factors
resulted in almost complete elimination of children of school age from certain districts.
There were six schools for which a teacher had been employed by the state but for which
there were no pupils in 1927-1928, and there were 363 schools with fewer than six pupils
each. (Report of the State School Code Commission of Kansas, June, 1928, vol. 1, p. 10.)
For other effects of these factors, see Chap. X.
[ in 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
maintaining a road and school for the sole use of one or two families. In
other cases, the state must step in because the undertaking becomes too
large for the county to finance, as, for example, the establishment of state
forests. But the extensive regional shifts in land utilization which appear
imminent in parts of the south will in all probability involve problems
too vast for the state to solve. It seems likely that the cooperation of the
federal government must be obtained if serious losses of soil resources as
well as development of undesirable social conditions are to be avoided.
After the 1930 drought temporary aid was extended in the form of federal
loans for seed and supplies. It is being extended again in 1932 because
of the distress occasioned by the low prices for farm products.60 The need
of a more permanent form of relief may be realized as the low producing
power of much of the land in the areas receiving loans becomes apparent.
The agricultural occupation of new lands may be left to individual
initiative in a period of rapidly increasing population and expanding
demand for farm products ; but agricultural recession raises new problems,
many of which are beyond the power of the individual to solve. We must
realize that the situation with reference to low grade land is not transitory
but seems likely to persist for many years to come.61
Clearly there is need to plan for the future and develop a program of
land utilization — national, state and local — to mitigate the suffering
incident to the slow abandonment of thousands of low producing farms;
to provide the operators of these farms and their families with better
social services and to utilize more effectively not only their land but also
their labor and intelligence.62 Doubtless most of these farms are of the
60 In 1930 Congress appropriated $47,000,000 for drought relief, plus $20,000,000 for
agricultural rehabilitation, of which over $47,000,000 was loaned to 385,192 persons by
the Secretary of Agriculture. Nearly $22,000,000 had been repaid by February 1, 1932.
In 1932, the appropriation was $50,000,000.
61 The magnitude of the so-called submarginal land problem is suggested by census
data recently issued, which show that in 1929 there were about 400,000 farms, or 6.6
percent of all farms, which produced less than $250 worth of products; 518,000, or 8.6
percent of all farms, produced $250 to $399 worth of products; 766,000, or 12.7 percent,
produced $400 to $599; 1,246,000, or 21.8 percent, produced $600 to $999; 938,000, or
15.6 percent, produced $1,000 to $1,499. Where to draw the line of submarginality is
uncertain, but it is worthy of note that 28 percent of the farms produced less than $600
worth of products in 1929, and 49 percent produced less than $1,000. These figures include
not only products sold, but those consumed on the farm as well; the values may be some-
what depressed by the fact that the census was taken on April 1, 1930, and some farmers
may have based their estimates on prices of that date rather than on amounts actually
received. The aggregate value for all farms, however, is only about 4 percent below the
estimate of the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
62 The Secretary of the United States Department of Agriculture, realizing the need of
developing a national policy and local programs of land utilization, joined with the Associa-
tion of Land Grant Colleges in calling a conference at Chicago in November, 1931, out of
which have grown two committees, the National Land Use Planning Committee, and the
National Advisory and Legislative Committee on Land Use. The former committee has
appointed eleven sub-committees of specialists to report on various phases of the subject.
NATURAL WEALTH
self-sufficing type and yield only a small surplus for sale in the nation's
markets, but this surplus tends to depress the prices of agricultural
products in general.
Urban Migration. — During the present economic depression some of
these farms have provided a haven for numbers of unemployed from the
cities. The sudden reversal of the direction of migration has raised
doubts as to whether the nation may not be entering a new era wherein
the cities will decrease and the open country will increase in population
through the establishment of thousands, if not millions, of new farms by
these urban migrants — or at least that the flow from farm to city will
cease.63 Any comprehensive program of land utilization will be subject to
modification when the future direction of this rural-urban migration
becomes clear.
Although in a time of rapid transition it is unsafe to rely upon fore-
casts, it may be helpful to consider some facts bearing upon the question
as to whether the present farmward migration of the unemployed will
prove transitory. More farmers are not needed to provide food or fibers
for the nation. For a decade, during much of which the city populations
were extraordinarily prosperous and were able to consume an unprec-
edented quantity of the more expensive foods, such as meat and milk,
fruit and vegetables, there has been, nevertheless, a distressing surplus
of farm products. Moreover, most of the migrants from the cities are
poorly provided with capital and many lack farm experience. It can
scarcely be expected that more than a few exceptional individuals will be
successful in developing a commercial type of farming in competition
with the experienced farmers in the field at present. Instead, it is probable
that these urban migrants will engage in a self-sufficing type of farming.64
63 The magnitude of the "back to the land" movement, up to the present at least,
appears to have been exaggerated in the popular press. The best estimates for New York
State indicate that migrants to the farms in 1931 (February 1, 1931-February 1, 1932)
merely balanced migrants from the farms, the farm population increasing by the excess
of births over deaths. In Pennsylvania, 85 percent of the houses on farms were occupied
by families engaged in agriculture on June 1, 1928 and 85.7 percent on June 1, 1932. Farm
houses occupied by persons not engaged in agriculture increased from 8.8 to 10.3 percent,
and vacant houses decreased from 6.2 to 4.0 percent. However, in Arkansas a survey
indicates that farm families increased about 8,000 during 1931, and in Kentucky the increase
was similar. For the entire United States the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics
estimates the movement to farms in 1931 at 1,679,000 and from farms at 1,472,000. The
surplus of births over deaths on farms was about 441,000. The net increase in farm popula-
tion, therefore, was roughly 648,000. In 1930 there was a small net increase in population,
but prior to 1930 farm population had been decreasing in nearly every year for a decade,
and probably longer.
64 The 1930 census of agriculture included, for the first time, inquiries on the value of
various groups of farm products sold or traded and of the contribution of the farm to the
family living (garden produce, milk, meat, etc.). On the basis of these answers all farms
were classified into 16 types and an "unclassified" group. One of these types was called
the "self-sufficing." It included those farms in which the contribution of the farm to the
family living exceeded half the value of all farm products and only those farms producing
[ 113 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
This is the type of farming which has been slowly diminishing during the
past century, at least in relative importance, under the competition of
commercial agriculture, and for this trend to be reversed would appear to
require either a persistent unemployment or a much lower level of urban
wages than in recent decades. Otherwise the migrant farmer, or his
children, will be attracted back to the city.
There may develop, however, an accelerated migration of urban
industry into rural territory, with many of the employes of the factories
having an acre or two of land and cultivating their own gardens, besides
keeping chickens, and sometimes a cow. Such a development would be
greatly facilitated by a shorter work day. The utilization of spare time
would probably prove profitable in most cases because of disposal of
surplus products to neighbors at almost the equivalent of retail prices,
whereas full time farming on a small acreage with sale at wholesale prices
might prove unprofitable. Greater economic stability would also result.
This might provide an incentive, in addition to that of greater freedom
from labor troubles, sufficient to induce the owners of industries to locate
their plants in rural communities.
The possibility of such a development will need to be taken into
account in working out plans or programs for the better use of the land,
particularly in the northeastern states, the Great Lakes states, the south-
ern Appalachian and Piedmont regions and in other areas where industry
is likely to develop because of peculiar advantages of transportation,
proximity to large markets, water power, cheap fuel or low labor costs.
But such industrial developments are likely to be local in their influence;
in most of the agricultural communities of the nation — notably those in
the central and western corn belt, in the wheat regions, in much of the
cotton belt and in most of the irrigated areas of the western states — there
seems to be little reason to anticipate that the trend toward greater
production per agricultural worker, involving in many cases larger farms
and more machinery, will not be resumed soon.
The Trend in Forest Land Utilization. — The area of forest and cut over
land in the United States is about the same as that of improved farm
land (or of crop land plus plowable pasture), or approximately 500,000,000
acres. About one-half of this forest and cut over land is in the south
(including Kentucky and southern Missouri), one-eighth is in the north-
eastern states (including eastern Ohio), nearly one-eighth is in the Great
Lakes states, mostly in the northern portions, and over one-quarter is in
the west, mostly in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast regions. How-
ever, 80 percent of the nation's saw timber stumpage is in the west, and
less than $750 worth of products. The average value per farm of all products produced
on these "self-sufficing" farms ranged from $251 in South Dakota to $645 in Delaware.
Part time farms were excluded from the tabulation of self-sufficing farms.
r 114 1
NATURAL WEALTH
two-fifths of this is in the national forests. In the east, about five percent
of the forest land is publicly owned, one-third in national forests and two-
thirds in state and municipal forests.
Forest Resources. — Of the 500,000,000 acres of forest and cut over
land about 100,000,000 acres bear virgin saw timber (the remnant of
possibly 800,000,000 acres that existed two centuries ago), 120,000,000
acres are contributing at present only material of cordwood size, another
90,000,000 acres are growing saw timber, and the balance of 190,000,000
acres consists of land bearing growth below cordwood size, nearly half of
which is restocking poorly or not at all.65 In the virgin forest decay is
probably balancing growth, and on the devastated areas there is practi-
cally no growth. Consequently, on only about 300,000,000 acres is the
forest stand increasing appreciably, and growth of saw timber (in excess of
decay) is taking place on only about 90,000,000 acres. The annual growth
on the 300,000,000 acres is estimated at about 25 cubic feet per acre,
which is about half that which prevails in well cared for forests in Europe.
Trends in Consumption of Forest Products. — Twelve years ago it was
estimated that the annual cut, including waste and destruction by insects
and fires, was four times the annual growth, and a severe shortage of
lumber was anticipated in a few decades.66 Recent estimates indicate a
somewhat lower ratio of consumption to growth, yet the drain on saw
timber particularly is suggestive of future scarcity. It is still too early to
predict the effect of the declining birth rate and the gradual but apparently
permanent decline in consumption per capita on future timber require-
ments. At present the surplus of lumber is as great as of agricultural
products and distress in the lumbering industry is, perhaps, even greater
than in agriculture.67
It appears that the annual lumber consumption per capita has
declined from about 500 board feet at the beginning of the century to
about 300 board feet in the years immediately preceding the current
depression. Should lumber rise above its present price relationship to other
building materials (and the present price is unprofitable for many, if not
65 "A Special Report to the Timber Conservation Board," January 30, 1932, prepared
by the U. S. Forest Service and issued in multigraph form February 25, 1932.
66 U. S. Forest Service, Report on Senate Resolution 311, Timber Depletion, Lumber
Prices, Lumber Exports, and Concentration of Timber Ownership, June 1, 1920, pp. 37-39.
67 It should be recognized, however, that the surplus is of lumber production, and not
of timber growth. R. Y. Stuart, in U. S. Forest Service, Report of the Forester to the Secretary
of Agriculture for 1931, p. 4, notes: "While industrial disorganization, market demoraliza-
tion, and business instability are widespread throughout the industry, the Pacific North-
west is the main seat of the disorder. Its cause is the attempt to liquidate in a short period a
resource which is undoubtedly capable of producing forever an annual output equal to
the normal production of such years as 1926 to 1929. The wastage in this liquidation policy,
both from the standpoint of the depletion charges involved and from the standpoint of
current overproduction for the market, is proving too great a strain on the financial re-
sources of the industry."
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
most, lumber companies) the tendency will be to substitute not only
brick, steel or concrete for lumber, but also to use less lumber and more
plaster board, bagasse products, strawboard, cardboard and similar
materials.
Tax Delinquency. — Largely as a consequence of the low prices of
lumber and the pressure of carrying charges on stumpage acquired in
years past, serious economic problems confront private owners of timber
land. If the situation persists, these problems are likely to be passed on
to the county or state government by the weaker lumber companies and
other land owners. Tax delinquency on forest and cut over land is increas-
ing rapidly; and, as with farm lands, delinquency tends to raise tax rates,
engendering further delinquency. This matter is so well stated in the
Report of the Forester for 1931 that an extended quotation is justified.
Although his statement is made with reference to the western states, it
is also true of many, if not most, states in the east :
The conclusion seems inescapable that much ... of this [private forest]
land will eventually revert to the States or to the counties. Cut over lands are
already becoming tax delinquent on an alarming scale in several states. Timber
is one of the principal sources of western tax revenues. As the timber is cut off
the value of the land is greatly lowered. A good deal of the uncut timber cannot
be converted into lumber with recovery of the cost involved, at the level of lumber
prices that prevailed during the five years prior to the 1929 slump. There is no
reason to anticipate a rise in lumber prices that will ever enable the private
owners to recover their carrying charges from now to the time of cutting, on the
lands of lowest value. From this source as well as through the abandonment of
cut over lands, a compulsory enlargement of public ownership is probable . . .
For the State to take abandoned cut over lands and timberlands that no
private owner is willing to continue to hold, block these lands up into practicable
administrative units, protect them against fire, meet the other costs of adminis-
tration and reforestation, and provide some equivalent to the local communities
for their loss of the taxes formerly paid, will mean the assumption of very heavy
burdens. In short, the problem of forest-land stabilization in the Western States
is much greater than the States are prepared to cope with unaided.68
Low Grade Forest Land. — The reversion of low grade agricultural land
to brush and eventually to forest appears likely to increase indirectly the
acreage of low grade forest land, and may aggravate the situation for
owners of such land. In 1929 there were 25,000,000 acres of "crop land
lying idle or fallow" in the sections of the United States which were
forested originally. If all this land should revert to forest, and much, if not
most, of it is headed that way, it would materially increase the area
growing saw timber. The outlook for private forestry on the poorer
grades of forest land is not bright.
Happily there are other functions of low grade forest land than the
production of wood, particularly of forest land in public ownership:
68 Report of the Forester, 1931, op. cit., pp. 5, 6 and 7.
[ 116 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
1. Forests protect watersheds, retarding erosion, lessening the severity
of floods and the silting of navigable rivers. In the west forests regulate
the flow of water for irrigation purposes; and in the east large areas of
forest are required to provide a pure water supply for the many cities.
Both in the east and in the west forests aid greatly in equalizing the flow
of streams which is so important in waterpower development.
2. Forests provide recreation and aesthetic satisfactions and con-
tribute to the advancement of public health. In 1930, for example, it is
estimated that nearly 32,000,000 persons visited the national forests.
Three-fourths of these, however, were merely transient motorists.69
3. Forests preserve wild life, particularly fur bearing animals and
wild fowl. It is estimated by the United States Biological Survey that the
normal value to the trapper of furs produced in the United States, nearly
all from forest or marsh land, is $75,000,000.
The trend appears to be toward the use of the poorer grades of forest
land for these purposes rather than for the production of wood, and it is
probable that much of the forest and cut over land which is reverting to
the county or state through tax delinquency will be developed primarily
for such uses. Recently Michigan has set aside over 600,000 acres of tax
delinquent land as state forest, while New York has appropriated
$19,000,000 for the purchase of submarginal farm land and the further
development of state forests and parks. Massachusetts has recently
purchased over 100,000 acres and Connecticut over 50,000 acres. Idaho,
South Dakota and Washington in 1931 authorized counties to make over
lands to the government for additions to the national forests.70
Forest Policy. — It is evident that in the originally forested portions of
the United States agricultural and forest land policies are intimately
related. In many cases low grade agricultural land may become high grade
69 Report of the Forester, 1931, op. cit., p. 49; see also Chap. XVIII. R. Zon says, "In
each of the Lake states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota — the tourists leave annually
from $80,000,000 to $100,000,000." (U. S. Department of Agriculture, Proceedings of the
National Conference on Land Utilization, Chicago, III., Nov. 19-21, 1931, Washington, 1932,
p. 80.)
70 Zon's opinion as to what should be done is of interest: "In the three Lake States of
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota alone, there must be close to 25,000,000 acres of tax
delinquent land in different stages of abandonment. The State or county, as a general rule,
does not want this land and resists by every means taking over title to it . . .
" If the Federal government, in cooperation with States and counties, could work out
for each State a definite plan of acquiring these tax delinquent lands, much of it could be
returned into public ownership, from which it should never have been allowed to pass.
In blocking out such areas for forest and conservation purposes, a selective process must
be used. We may as well admit that there are submarginal forest lands just as there
are submarginal agricultural lands. It may be several generations before this submarginal
forest land can be economically developed even by public efforts. Such land should be
given protection against fires, but beyond that it should be allowed, for the time being,
to drift as idle land, leaving it to nature to restore it to some form of usefulness." (Zon,
op. cit., pp. 81-82).
[ 117]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
forest land. Both probably will remain to a large extent in private
ownership. Fair and poor forest land, on the other hand, are tending
toward public ownership, where it is possible to find uses in addition to
that of wood production. But owing to the long time required to grow
saw timber and the disinclination of individuals to assume the risks
involved, some of the better quality forest land is also likely to become
publicly owned. This appears desirable from the long time national
viewpoint, since public agencies can assure that continuity of policy
which is so important in the development of forest land. Such develop-
ment, by providing supplementary employment in the forests and by the
maintenance of local woodworking industries, will prevent the abandon-
ment of much agricultural land in regions of hilly surface or poor soils.
The development of public forests in many areas appears to be the only
adequate solution of the problem of agricultural recession.
V. THE OUTLOOK FOR LAND UTILIZATION
The advance in agricultural technique, in association with the decline
in population growth and other factors, has already reversed the trend of
agricultural development over a large part of the country. Moreover, there
is every likelihood that both the advance in technique and the decline
in population growth will continue for some years. Only yesterday a
buoyant spirit pervaded the American nation. The free land in the west
beckoned the young man with the promise of a home and the accumula-
tion of a competence. Europe afforded a remunerative market for the
agricultural surplus. The rapidly growing cities also offered opportunities
to acquire wealth. Immigrants were welcome to share in the political
equality, in the economic opportunity afforded by the cities, and in the
joy of exploiting the greatest contiguous area of arable land in the world,
with the possible exception of the Russian steppes and woodlands. Yet
now, when the agricultural conquest of the continent is scarcely more
than half complete,71 and when the trend of per capita income and
wealth is upward72 (prior to 1930), the situation has become so altered
that the former land policies are clearly obsolete. These were based,
perhaps unconsciously, on the assumption of a rapidly increasing popula-
tion and need for farm products in Europe as well as in the United States
and on a stationary agricultural technique; whereas the prospect at pres-
ent is for an advancing technique and a stationary population. A new
land policy evidently is needed.
71 Crops occupy less than 40 percent of the land physically capable of crop production,
and only about half of such land has been "improved." See U. S. Department of Agricul-
ture, 1923 Yearbook, pp. 427-431.
72 See King, W. I., The National Income and Its Purchasing Power, National Bureau of
Economic Research, New York, 1930, pp. 87, 91.
[ US]
NATURAL WEALTH
Concentration of Crop Production on the Good Land. — The outlook
for land utilization in the United States is, briefly, toward an increase of
crop acreage, mostly at the expense of pasture, in the more level or fertile
areas, where tractors and associated machinery and the increasing use of
fertilizer are likely to lower still further the cost of crop production
relative to the cost in the less level or less fertile areas. In many of these
fertile or level areas most of the crops are sold rather than fed (the cotton
belt, wheat regions, central Illinois section of the corn belt and other areas).
Here the trend doubtless will continue to be toward larger farms. Con-
tinued progress in animal husbandry and use of fertilizer on pastures will
tend, likewise, to concentrate production of animal products on the better
land. Livestock farms, however, may not increase in area, but will tend to
increase in productive capital. Near the large cities, and elsewhere in
localities having exceptional transportation or marketing facilities for
perishable products or possessing peculiar advantages of climate, agri-
cultural production is likely to become still more intense and lead to the
establishment of many small farms.73 In other words, production will
tend to concentrate on the more level, more fertile or more favorably
located lands, and these will be cultivated more intensively, not neces-
sarily by more labor but mostly by the use of more capital.
Reversion of Poorer Land to Pasture, Forest or Waste. — For a few
years the total crop acreage may remain stationary or even increase
slightly.74 It is then likely to decrease as the rate of population growth
declines (assuming no great increase in agricultural exports). Pasture
lands will increase probably in the less desirable areas as crop land
decreases, but since much pasture in hilly, eroded or infertile areas in the
humid portions of the nation will revert to brush and eventually to forest,
this increase in pasture acreage may be transitory. Such a reversion to
forest has been in progress for several decades in parts of the Appalachian
region; and during the past decade, for the first time in our history,
the area of forest and brush land increased materially in the United
States as a whole. The reversion of crop land to pasture and forest will
73 The census of 1930 shows a large increase in small farms during the decade, those of
under 3 acres increasing 111.3 percent, of 3 to 9 acres 17.5 percent, and of 10 to 19 acres
10.2 percent. Many of these small farms are "part time" farms, located near cities. It is
not unlikely that the further development of good roads and the increasing desire of many
urban families to reduce the cost of living, as well as to obtain greater economic security,
will result in a rapid increase in these semi-suburban "farms," as well as in the number of
the rural non-farm population. The tendency to locate factories in small cities and villages
will greatly aid this movement.
74 If agricultural production per acre in crops increases during the next ten years as it has
during the last ten years and domestic consumption per capita and exports of farm products
remain constant, while population increases 9,000,000, about 5 percent smaller crop area,
or 18,000,000 acres less than at present would be sufficient. But if production per acre
remains constant during the next decade, as it has during the last five years, about 7 percent
larger crop area, or 25,000,000 acres more than at present will be needed.
[ 119 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
not be a new development but it seems likely to become more extensive
and general.
Expansion in Non-agricultural Uses of Land. — The ramifying net-
work of good roads, use of the automobile and auto bus, together with the
construction of electric power lines and the almost universal availability
of the telephone, is resulting in an increasing number of urban workers
living in the open country or in suburban villages. Such residential use
may, during the next decade or two, require several million acres of land.
The multiplication of golf courses and the establishment of new national
and state parks will take a few million more acres. Many factories have
already moved from cities to rural villages, and there are indications that
such a movement may increase. Some experiments suggest the possibility
of combining work in winter in the factory with work in summer on the
farm.75 The recent census revealed a surprisingly large number of farmers
who were supplementing their income from agriculture by part time
work in other occupations.76 All of these movements, strengthened by a
desire on the part of the people for greater economic stability, may result
in the development of a village life in the near future which will combine
many advantages of the city with most of the satisfactions of the farm.
Such a development would contribute to the solution of one of the
most serious agricultural problems. Progress in agricultural technique
has involved continued drain of rural wealth to the cities, not only the
investment represented in the rearing and education of young people
who leave the farms, but also the wealth that passes in the distribution
of estates to the children.77 This is a vast amount, difficult to estimate,
but probably of the magnitude of a quarter, a third, or, possibly, a half
of the total value of farm property in each generation. There has been no
counterflow of wealth from the cities of comparable magnitude. The
development of the villages would greatly diminish this drain. If full time
or part time employment could be found in a nearby village for the son or
daughter whose labor is not needed on the farm, not only would this
wealth represented by an educated individual and that transmitted
through inheritance be retained in the community, but also such wealth as
the son or daughter might accumulate.
Such accumulation of wealth would provide the means to improve
living conditions in the community — houses provided with modern
conveniences and more beautiful grounds, better roads, schools and
76 Notably Ford's experiment at Dearborn, Michigan.
76 Nearly a third of the farmers in 1929 worked for pay at jobs not connected with the
farms they operated, and a ninth worked more than 100 days in the year on such jobs.
77 See R. M. Rutledge, "Relation of the Flow of Population to the Problem of Rural
and Urban Economic Inequality" Journal of Farm Economics, July, 1930, and C. J. Galpin,
(U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics) "Leakage of Agricultural Wealth to Cities"
address, Institute of Politics, Williamstown, Massachusetts, August 13, 1925 (unpublished
but available on request).
[ 120 ]
NATURAL WEALTH
churches. This would tend to attract city people who might wish to spend
their vacations or their declining years in the country. More and more
people are living where they want to live. The development of the village
may not only diminish the flow of wealth from rural to urban areas, but
even induce a counterflow consisting largely of expenditures for recreation
by the young and middle aged and for enjoyment by those who have
retired from active life. The prosperity of New England and of California
(prior to the recent universal depression), to cite examples, was maintained
in no small measure by such a flow of wealth from other areas.
Summary. — This is the outlook, but it is not a prophecy. The uncer-
tainties in the situation — changes in our immigration policy, changes in
tariff policy both in the United States and abroad, the possibility of rapid
industrialization in the Orient, with development of an effective demand
for farm products — are too great to permit a definite conclusion. More-
over, if urban unemployment becomes chronic the present trend in land
utilization in many localities may be materially altered.
Of these things we may be sure: that the soil resources are being
depleted and often wasted; that there will be further progress in agri-
cultural technique; that there will be notable regional and local shifts in
production; that a decreasing proportion of the population engaged in
full time farming will be able to produce plenty for everyone in the nation
to eat; that both public and private action will be necessary to solve the
vast problems of land utilization; and that the family farm and individual
initiative will remain characteristic features of American agriculture.
CHAPTER III
THE INFLUENCE OF INVENTION AND DISCOVERY
BY W. F. OGBURN, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF S. C. GILFILLAN
IN the preceding chapter stress is laid upon technological develop-
ments in agriculture, in mining and in the production of power.
Science and technology are the most dynamic elements of our ma-
terial culture. Through technology men transform the physical environ-
ment, so that men, natural resources and inventions and discoveries are
the primary factors which determine the wealth, standards of living and
well being of a people.
This chapter surveys inventions and discoveries in applied science,
describing as an example the social effects of a single invention, discussing
the action and reaction between inventions and society as a whole and
concluding with a discussion of the problems created.
I. INVENTION AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Mechanical inventions and scientific discoveries are included in a
study of social trends because they are associated with so many changes
which are purely social. Thus the invention of the automobile and its
wide diffusion have aided the growth of suburbs, affected the size of
villages, reduced railroad traffic, changed the nature of much hotel busi-
ness, modified manners and morals, increased crime, diminished the
employment of domestic servants, changed marketing areas and caused
international difficulties over oil resources. And these are only a few of
its manifold influences. There are many other inventions of revolutionary
social significance such as the airplane, the sound picture, the radio and
the tractor. Social changes of today are connected with inventions of the
past and inventions of today will no doubt foreshadow the social changes
of the future.
Inventions have been rapidly growing in numbers in the modern age
but this has not always been the case. In the stone ages there were few
mechanical contrivances, some chipped stones, a few tools for trapping,
some cooking utensils and the like. Invention was so rare that it required
thousands of years to bring about a new method for cutting flint. But as
time passed, inventions began to accumulate, since relatively few were
lost to the world, and new inventions became more frequent, in part
because the heritage of previous centuries meant that there was more
[ 122 ]
INVENTIONS
with which to work. An invention cannot be made unless the elements
which form its base are in existence. The Greeks with all their intellectual
powers could not invent the airplane, because they did not have the
gas engine and other supporting devices. The larger the number of ele-
ments in a culture, the more numerous the inventions. Their growth
appears to be somewhat like compound interest : the bigger the principal,
the larger the interest.
It is not surprising then that our mechanical heritage has become so
large and is increasing so rapidly. More than 400,000 patents were granted
in the United States alone within the decade 1920-1930. l Inventions like
the coal tar products, cellulose acetate, nitrogen fixation and the electron
tube all have their roots in the past and furnish the basis for future
inventions.
An attempt is made in the first section of this chapter to show
in some detail how the inventing process is going forward in different
fields. A broad resume is here presented of inventions and discoveries in
applied science in the fields of electricity, chemistry, physics, metals,
power, transportation, construction, machinery and mechanical objects,
and biology. The social influences of these inventions are indicated or
suggested. Not much can be told in the limited space available but at
least a bird's eye view can be presented of vast achievements, far more
marvellous than the Utopias or mythologies conceived by the imaginative
writers of the past.
This slow accumulation of mechanical inventions through most of
the last half million years and its rapid acceleration during the period of
modern history have led to a new environment to which modern man must
adjust, quite different from the fauna and flora of nature. On first thought,
it would seem to be an environment to which man would easily adjust
himself. Houses furnish him with shelter, the adaptation to which seems
easy, but there are difficulties in the way of obtaining the proper amount
of outdoor exercise and sunshine for good health. The automobile enables
him to move with less effort than it takes to walk, but it has brought its
problems of traffic congestion and automobile thefts. The modern city
has created the most artificial environment yet known. It brings comforts
and conveniences, but likewise innumerable problems of adjustment. For
instance, it forced a reorganization of family life by taking production
from the household and placing it in the factory; it created a city pro-
letariat; it changed manners and morals and brought problems of health
which are not yet solved. Man is far from having achieved a satisfactory
1 Patents and inventions are not identical. Many inventions are not patented. Many
patents concern such small improvements that they may not be called inventions. It is
difficult to draw the line between inventions and technical improvements or adaptations.
A single major invention, such as the automobile, may combine hundreds of patents, while
the invention itself may not be patented.
[ 123 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
adjustment to the modern factory which is closely associated with modern
urban development.
In the summary view of recent inventions presented in the first part
of the chapter, there are a few brief descriptions of some of the social
effects of these inventions on habits, customs, institutions, organizations
and philosophies. In order to suggest the many possible ramifications of
many inventions, a single great invention, the radio, was studied more
thoroughly and a more extended account of its social effects is presented
in the second section of the chapter. It is shown what an extraordinary
and varied influence this invention has had on our lives. If the effects of
other inventions were similarly shown, some idea might be gained of the
social influence of inventions in general.
It is not to be implied that mechanical invention is the source of all
change. There are social inventions like the city manager form of govern-
ment, the chain store, esperanto and basketball which have had great
effects upon social customs. While many social inventions are only
remotely connected with mechanical inventions, others appear to be
precipitated by mechanical inventions. Such is the case with workmen's
compensation laws, the trade union and the tourist camp. But just as
mechanical inventions furnish an incentive for certain social inventions,
so social inventions sometimes stimulate the making of mechanical
inventions as in the "safety first" campaigns of a few years ago.
The close relationship between social and mechanical invention is
characteristic of the nature of the influence of inventions on society.
Derivative effects of invention follow one another like ripples after a
pebble is thrown in water. The description of this and other processes,
of which there are many, serves to build up the picture of inventional
influence. The relationship is often much more remote than that of the
automobile and the consolidation of rural schools. Thus, the invention
of the tin can is said to have influenced the movement for woman suffrage.
It first led to canning factories, then it reduced the time in preparing
meals in the home; it thus gave women more time for activities outside
the home, including participation in the movement for woman's rights
and the suffrage. In turn, woman suffrage has had a series of derivative
effects. If the effects of a single factor are spread out very far, the force
of the particular influence may be quite weak. Certainly the canning
industry has had a very little influence on woman suffrage but its influence
on the work of women in the home has been great.
Furthermore, a social change is seldom the result of a single invention.
Thus woman suffrage was the outcome of a great number of forces and
converging influences. Mass production, urbanization, birth control, the
typewriter, education, the theory of natural rights and many other factors
contributed. The cumulative effects of many small inventions are also
[ 124 1
INVENTIONS
associated with social changes. This piling up process is analyzed in the
third section of the chapter.
Finally it is important to note which comes first, the mechanical
invention or the social invention. In some cases the social invention is
first, as was the case with building code legislation and the subsequent
development of the set back type of skyscraper architecture. But in other
cases the mechanical development comes first as in the development of
welfare work systems for employees in factories and stores.
There are many instances where the mechanical invention comes
first and the particular adaptive social device follows. Advertising adapts
itself to the radio. It is the factory which changed the family. Industry
changes first and the school curricula later. There is often a delay or lag
in the adaptive culture after the material culture has changed, and some-
times these lags are very costly, as was the case with workmen's compen-
sation for industrial accidents. The fact that the different parts of a
highly integrated society are changing at unequal rates of speed means
that there is a lack of harmony, frequently a grievous maladjustment, and
always a failure to make the most out of a possible development. The
problems of social change are then, first, for man to adjust himself to a
new environment consisting of a huge material culture and, second, for
man to adapt himself to varying rates of change in the material and
social culture.
The Number of Inventions. — Of the facts which emerge from this
study, one is the immense numbers of inventions and discoveries in all
fields; another is the extent of their influence on many manifestations of
life, incalculable in their totality and profound in their significance. But
in addition to these is the impressive fact of their phenomenal increase
from year to year. In the decade ending in 1890 there were 208,000
patents granted in the United States. In successive decades the numbers
were 221,000, 314,000, 384,000, and_4glj)flfl Jor the decade ending in
1930. Table 1 shows at stated intervals the growth of patents, inventions
and discoveries in certain fields of science in the United States and other
countries.
The yearly increase in the number of patents since the World War
has not been large, and it may be questioned whether this recent slow
increase may not presage a decline in the near future. There have been
several times in the past, however, when the number of inventions in-
creased at no greater rate than in the last decade, and at some periods
there has even been a decline; yet over a long period of time the curve of
the growth of patents has been upward. These conditions are shown in
the chart of patents granted by years since 1852 in the United States
and in the United Kingdom. (Figure 1.) In the light of Figure 1 and of
Table 1, a forecast of a decline in inventions based upon the post-war
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 1. — THE GROWTH OF PATENTS, INVENTIONS AND SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERIES IN
RECENT YEARS IN THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES
Patents issued in the
United States, 1840-1931,
by five year periods0
Patents issued in Great
Britain, 1741-1931, by
ten year periods*
Inventions reported by
Darmstaedter, 1450-1899,
by twenty-five year
periods0
Discoveries in physics
reported in France, Eng-
land, and Germany,
1811-1900, by five
year periods'*
5 years
ending —
Number of
patents
10 years
ending —
Number of
patents
25 years
ending —
Number of
inventions
5 years
ending —
Number of
discoveries
1845
2,425
3,517
6,143
16,997
20,779
58,833
61,024
64,496
97,357
110,493
108,465
112,325
143,791
171,560
186,241
197,644
203,977
219,384
1761
100
234
309
535
722
947
1,119
1,576
3,002
4,679
19,188
22,356
33,495
87,623
130,197
160,386
138,909
182,782
1474
1499
1524
39
50
84
102
109
127
135
129
237
218
180
281
410
680
1,034
1,885
2,468
2,880
1815
1820
1825
1830
1835
59
98
111
88
101
157
157
240
218
221
211
227
292
421
560
798
738
917
1850
1771
1781
1855
1860
1791
1549
1574
1865
1801
1870
1811
1821
1599
1840
1875
1624
1845
1850
1880
1885
1890
1831
1649
1841
1674 . .
1855
1851
1699
1860
1865
1895
1900
1905
1861
1724
1759
1774
1871
1881
1891
1901
1870
1875
1910
1799
1880
1916
1920
1925
1824
1849
1885
1911
1890
1895
1921
1874
1930
1931
1899
1900
«U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Statistical Abstract, 1928, p. 811; 1908, p. 202; 1888,
p. 230.
6 Hulme, Wyndham, Statistical Bibliography in Relation to the Growth of Modern Civilization, London, 1923;
Whitaker's Almanac, and communications from the British Patent OfBce.
c Darmstaedter, L., Handbuch zur Geschichte der Naturwissenschaften und der Technik, Berlin, 1908.
d RainofF, T. J., "Wave-like Fluctuations of Creative Productivity in the Development of West-European
Physics in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries," I tit, vol. 12, no. 2, 1929, p. 311.
period only would seem unsound. The indications seem to be quite the
other way.
It is obvious that accumulating inventions are not without signifi-
cance for education. The growth shown in Table 1 and Figure 1
indicates that the total body of knowledge available to mankind is also
accumulating, though naturally some is being lost, as, for instance, the
primitive arts of the hunting period or the lore of the Middle Ages. Such
an increase in the body of knowledge makes problems not only for educa-
tional institutions but for the human race. Mankind now has to learn
the great body of knowledge through its specialists, each of whom acquires
parts of it, and through its non-specialists, who acquire more of it through
a prolongation of the years of learning. Certainly the school curriculum
has been enlarged, as is shown in the chapter on education, and the
varieties of schools and courses have increased. The period of formal
[ 126 1
INVENTIONS
learning has been extended for many into adulthood. The data in Table
1 may be causally correlated with these educational trends. It seems
probable that this process will continue into the future, leading to further
specialization and further lengthening of the years at school.2
Rapidity of Change. — Table 1 shows not only an increasing number
of inventions, but, since there are more inventions per unit of time, it
shows an increasing rapidity in their occurrence, and hence, in social
change. Habits and ways of doing things are thus changing more rapidly.
More customs are being broken, appeals to the authority of long usage
NUMBER OF PATENTS GRANTED
CO.OOO
40,000
20,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1,000
800
600
United States-^.
\^-Greof Britain
1851 -r86O I86I-I87O I87I-I880 I88I-I89O I891-I9OO I I9OI-I9IO I I9II-I92O I92I-I93O
XV
/
V'
FIG. 1. — Patents granted in the United States and Great Britain, 1852-1930.
tend to be less widely convincing and principles of conduct are being
reformulated in new terms to meet the changing conditions, and as
conditions further change still more reformulations will be needed. From
Table 1, it may be inferred that inventions are not without effect on
codes of morals, and trends in ethical rules appear to be correlated with
accumulating inventions.
Acceleration. — There are other trends but they are not easy to show
numerically. Certain movements, however, seem clear even though
unmeasured statistically. Such is the trend in the direction of the greater
2 See Chap. VII.
127
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
speed of life. This is an effect characteristic of so many inventions that
it may be thought of as a general trend. Such, for instance, is the effect
of most inventions in the fields of communication, transportation, produc-
tion, power and light, and of many of the improvements in the various
inventions. The increased speed of life has itself much social significance
and leads to a greater rapidity of social change.3
Dependence on Machines. — Still other effects are common to many
inventions. One is the increasing use of machines, which is to be inferred
from the growing number of inventions noted in the preceding table.
These developments give man more power and bring more conveniences,
but they also mean that he is more dependent on machines. This is true
not only for the larger and more significant inventions presented in the
following sections, but also, no doubt, for the smaller tools and objects
which man holds as individual property for personal use.
Effect on Standard of Living. — Another general effect is on the stand-
ard of living. Many tools and machines serve in the transformation of
the products of the earth into usable objects, and this tends to raise the
general standard of living. Such a tendency may be counteracted by
several forces: by a too rapidly increasing population, by an exhaustion
of certain natural resources, by a more unequal distribution of wealth, or
finally by a disorganized social life, which, for instance, wars sometimes
bring. But unless counteracted by such forces as these, technological
progress will probably mean a rising standard of living, with consequent
effects upon health, education, recreation and many other aspects of life,4
not to omit the possible effect on the ability to meet certain crises and
emergencies, such as illness, unemployment and old age. Changes in the
standard of living, however, tend to be somewhat slow and irregular
when judged by the records of the past.
Rural Life. — A special phase- of the effect of the inventions that aid
in the spreading of culture is the changing nature of agriculture and
rural life.5 The machine-power complex is being diffused outward from
the cities into the villages and farming areas with almost dramatic
effect. This movement is also furthered by inventions especially adapted
to these regions and to the occupations and type of life found therein.
This trend in rural and village life is not a general effect of all inventions,
and is mentioned as a special trend.
Technological Unemployment. — One is also impressed by the fre-
quency with which new machines displace laborers, making their services
at former tasks no longer necessary, as is the case with milking and car-
loading machines. This tendency is as true of recent inventions the effects
of which lie largely in the future, such as the cotton picker and the
3 For additional material on the increased tempo of life, see Chap. IV.
4 On standards of living, see Chap. XVI.
6 See material on agricultural life, Chap. II, and on rural life, Chap. X.
[ 128]
INVENTIONS
teletypesetter, to mention only two of an impressive number. With the
growth of technology in transit unemployment grows. There seems to be
no way of measuring the future of this displacement. But there are so
many new inventions indicating displacement of labor that technological
unemployment may be an even more serious problem of the near future
than it is now. In the past, expanding industries and population shifts
have in time accomplished the readjustments. It is difficult to say whether
these numerous new labor saving inventions may not augment the prob-
lem of technological unemployment in the future, but such is a strong
possibility, despite a diminishing rate of increase in population.
The Principle of Remote Control. — The correlative of technological
unemployment is the growth of the automatic processes of production,
as illustrated by traffic regulation, the marvelous things which the
photoelectric cell does, and the automatic power plant. When the auto-
matic devices are correlated with the new communication inventions,
remote control becomes an important factor. Technically, airplane
flights without a pilot have been directed by remote control ; and, socially,
industries have left large cities, with only management remaining there
to exercise direction at a long distance. This significant principle is being
applied in transportation, production, business, and in many other
varieties of social affairs.
Communication. — So important are the trends in the communication
inventions that a separate chapter is devoted to them.6 But there ought
to be noted here two effects of consequence. The first is that communica-
tion and transportation development often mean change and variety to
human beings. These are in marked contrast to the repetition and monot-
ony which were brought by factories, whose great development preceded
somewhat that of the agencies of communication. The other effect of the
communication inventions is on the uniformity , and diversity of social
life. It is obvious that the communication inventions are bringing the
world closer together, but perhaps it is not appreciated how much they
operate to bring uniformity and standardization. They may also intensify
diversity because they may multiply local contacts more rapidly than
those at a distance, as is shown in Chapter IV. Diversification and special-
ization are also increased by the growing accumulation of material culture
mentioned in a preceding paragraph. The communication inventions
then have somewhat opposite effects. The two processes may go on at the
same time, producing both a specialist's language and a common tongue.
Problems of Adjustment. — These social trends may be further sum-
marized. They are all trends showing the adjustment of society to inven-
tion and science. For science and invention are creating a new type of
material environment different from the natural environment of cold
6 See Chap. IV.
[ 129 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
and heat, rain and drought, flora and fauna, to which early man had to
make an adaptation. His was an environment relatively stationary over
centuries, while that of modern man changes by decades. The new
material conditions are seldom foreseen. Rather, man's social institutions
and social philosophies have been constantly upset by rapid technological
advance, and it is only later that better adjustments have been made.
Delays are sometimes costly. Thus the changing material culture has
meant more deaths by accidents as well as the conquering of some dis-
eases. It has meant loss of jobs and the giving up of old and cherished
habits. But of course it has brought more conveniences and a higher
standard of living.
The foregoing trends have been observed in the researches described
in the following pages. These social changes are caused by inventions as
a whole or as a class and are set forth in this section in a manner to show
some of their broad implications for society in general, and perhaps to
provide suggestions for interpretation in the reading of the accounts of
inventions in the next section. These accounts present in detail the signif-
icance of particular inventions, in contrast to the summaries just pre-
sented. The purpose of the survey of major inventions in section II is to
give a brief history of what has been happening during recent years
across the whole range of material civilization, for the following chapters
which make up these volumes cover many different phases of our changing
culture.
II. RECENT INFLUENCES OF INVENTIONS
The following survey of inventions shows the extraordinary range
and variety of the effects of inventions and discoveries occurring along
the whole front of technological progress and scientific advance. These
seem to touch life in all its diverse phases and appear in unpredicted
ramifications through the many customs and institutions of society.
Modern civilization is so immense that to record all of the new inven-
tions and scientific discoveries which are changing it is impossible. There
must be a selection7 of the most important. This selection, moreover,
should not be narrow but should be representative of the many different
aspects of civilization.
Interest centers, however, on the effects and changes precipitated,
and there are as many of these listed, suggested or implied as space
7 The basis of selection is, in general, the significance for social change and not, as is
the case in many lists of inventions, the importance for the welfare of human beings or
the ingenuity represented in their mechanical properties and arrangements. Yet inventions
important from the standpoint of human welfare generally occasion changes in habits
and institutional activities. The list may give evidence of some serious omissions due to
the obvious difficulty of covering such a wide field, to the unsettled criterion of the impor-
tant inventions and to the arbitrary nature of any line cutting off the upper end of a
frequency distribution, drawn on a scale indicating significance.
[ 130 ]
INVENTIONS
permits. Furthermore, the subject of inquiry is the changes of today, that
is, of approximately the last decade, and therefore only recent inventions
are studied. But it is to be remembered that the inventions which are
basic to the changes of this decade appeared, in the main, a decade or
more previously, few being noted, however, which were invented before
1850. Thus the tractor is an old invention, but its effect on social change,
particularly in rural life, has never been so great as today. On the other
hand, the inventions of the present, with some exceptions, will not produce
their most extensive influences until future decades and, while it is desir-
able to look into the future, it is realized that the far off effects of many
inventions are difficult to foresee. It is by no means easy to know which
of the embryonic inventions will mature and become widely used.
It is also important to consider whether the use of an invention is
increasing or decreasing, for this gives some indication of whether the
changes resulting therefrom are increasing or decreasing.8 For instance,
it is desirable to know whether an invention like the telephone, a rela-
tively old one, is now producing many social changes. In the following
pages the annual percentage rates of increase or decrease are given for
many of the cases cited,9 as indices of the rates of growth of the changes
over the country. Thus in the case of certain telephone improvements,
long distance calls in recent years are increasing at the rate of about 15
percent annually. This statement is shown in the text by the symbol
15u, which means that the annual percent increase in use is 15. If the
percent increase in production had been used, the citation would have
been 15p. An annual increase of 10 percent means doubling in about seven
years. The first of the divisions10 surveyed will be that of the electrical
inventions.
Electrical Inventions. — Of the few electrical inventions on which it
is possible to comment, those for lighting may be mentioned first. These
inventions recover the night for work, play, education, etc. They lead
8 Such is not always the case, for the derivative effects may increase even after the
increase in use ceases.
9 The rate of increase was determined by plotting the data of use or production during
recent years, from 5 to 9 years, up to 1929 generally, on semi-logarithmic paper, drawing
by sight a straight line to represent the trend and then reading off the percent increase,
usually rounding off the figures to the nearest 0 or 5, particularly in the larger percentages.
If it had been possible to carry the trend lines through the business depression beginning
in 1929, the increases in most cases would have been less.
10 The classifications employed are selected because of their convenience; but in general
the groupings are on the basis of properties rather than functions. They might also have
been classified according to the stage in the productive process at which they are used.
Those at the end of the process are consumers' goods as, for instance, the phonograph,
while the blow torch is a producer's good, and like other producers' goods, has its social
influence largely through the consumers' goods it helps to create. To exclude inventions
that are producers' goods is not wise, however. Since they often suggest the consumers'
goods they create, and even the social consequences that follow, they are very useful
headings in a report where brevity is a necessity.
f 131 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
to the all-round use of the twenty-four hour cycle, counteracting the
influence in northern latitudes of clouds and long winter nights. Lighting
is said to be in its infancy, with many new forms in prospect — windowless
buildings easier to heat and light, outdoor sports at night, floodlighted
exteriors, new lighting effects for the stage and interior decoration, and
ultra-violet light indoors from mercury vapor lamps. Of the many light-
ing inventions11 the very efficient gas filled bulb, 1913, 12 should be espe-
cially noted, 15p (15p meaning a 15 percent annual increase in production),
as also the inside frosted bulb, 1925 (the date at which the invention
became commercially successful).
Of the communication inventions13 the telephone14 may be mentioned
first. Though an old invention, 1876-1880 (1854), 15 the telephone is being
developed with many new devices such as repeaters, carrier currents,
1918, and permalloy,16 1924, and plans for a transatlantic telephone cable
11 Other light inventions are acetylene, 1892, natural gas (not electrical, of course),
arc light, 1872, incandescent filament light, 1879, Nernst light, 1897, searchlight, 1876-
1886. See footnote 12 for explanation of dates.
12 The date represents the time when the invention became commercially successful,
which is later in the evolution of an invention than its date of conception or patent. In
the development of an invention, first comes the idea, usually vague, the date of which in
history is indeterminable. This idea is some day worked up into a trial device, model, or
plan, and the earliest date found at which this step was taken is called the conception date.
Perhaps later would come the date of first demonstration of an experimental mechanical,
but not commercial, success. Still later comes the day here called the success date, when
the device is made fully practical in one of the forms used later, and is put to regular use.
Later still come the dates when the curve of adoption soars. These dates cannot always
be determined exactly. While exactness of date is important in giving recognition in
patent litigation, it is perhaps sufficient here to place the invention approximately. This
study is not much concerned with who "the inventor" was and few names are given since
the interest focuses on social consequences. In the case of most important inventions,
many inventors made important contributions at some stage of their evolution; but the
one who contributed the stroke from which historically the development in common
utilization began is usually called the inventor, although technically he may have con-
tributed no more or even less than many others who worked on it.
13 It is not planned, however, to deal with inventions by functional groups or processes,
and other discussions of communication will be found elsewhere in the report. Rather,
it is individual invention complexes that are presented; and the transition from one inven-
tion to another is necessarily brief and abrupt.
14 The titles used are designations sometimes of clusters of smaller inventions. Thus
the vacuum tube was in the first instance a single invention, but there have been so many
different smaller inventions improving it or adding to it that the vacuum tube has become
in reality a cluster of inventions around a central idea. At other times the titles imply a
complexity of inventions. Thus by the telephone is meant the whole organization including
receivers, wires, switchboards, cables, poles, telephone numbers and directories, and all
that goes to make up the system.
15 The dates occurring in parentheses are the dates of conception as defined in footnote
12, and should not be confused with the "success" date.
16 Since brevity is a necessary characteristic of the report, citations for each date used
will not be given. In general they come from the biennial United States Census of Manu-
factures, the Statistical Abstract of the United States, the Commerce Yearbook , from special
reports and from direct inquiries. For the data on inventions and their uses, the various
histories of inventions were consulted as well as special literature on the inventions.
INVENTIONS
have now been made. Because of its rapidly increasing use (calls 5u),
the telephone is causing many social changes, touching the farm, the
medical profession, police, fire control, store deliveries, household
purchasing and broadcasting. Affairs are speeded up and contacts become
less formal. The recent rapid increase of long distance calls, 15u, if con-
tinued may encourage office and factory decentralization.17
The vacuum tube, 55u, one of the great inventions of our times — the
two-electrode valve, 1904 (1889), and the three-element tube, 1906 — is
essential to radio telephony, loud speakers, electrical phonograph record-
ing, picture telegraphy, television and all uses of the photoelectric cell,
and is employed in all manner of detection and control devices such as
elevator leveling, train control and continuous process control.
The photoelectric cell is old but became practically useful only when
vacuum tube amplifiers were made available. Its use with the amplifier
is so recent that its social effects will be largely in the future, although
even today an unusual variety of uses has been found for this mechanical
eye, which never knows fatigue, is marvellously swift and accurate, can
see with invisible light, and coordinates with all the resources of electricity.
It sorts beans, fruit and eggs, measures illumination in studios and
theaters, appraises color better than the human eye, classifies minerals,
counts bills and throws out counterfeits, times horse races, counts people
and vehicles, determines thickness and transparency of cloth, detects and
measures strains in glass, sees through fog, records smoke in tunnels
and chimneys, and is indispensable in facsimile telegraphy, television, and
sound-on-film pictures. Other of its uses are to direct traffic automatically
at less frequented crossings, to open a door at the approach of a waitress
and to serve as an automatic train control. It has been used in the phonop-
ticon to read print in sound, embodying a principle of significance but
with an uncertain future due to inherent difficulties and to competition
from other inventions.
There are numerous electrical inventions which hold promise for many
useful future developments, particularly in the field of communication.18
One possible extension of electrical invention is the use of wires and radio
for picture and facsimile transmission, 1923. Trial newspapers have been
thus sent from New York to San Francisco, and from land to ships. Such
service has many difficulties, technological and otherwise, and there are
substitutes, but if some such service should be extended to cities and
particularly to small towns it would have far reaching social consequences.
Other uses of the same mechanism are for sending news pictures, identi-
fications of criminals, X-ray photographs, weather maps, signed docu-
17 For additional material on the use of telephones, see Chap. IV.
18 It is not intended here to anticipate the future trend of electrical research any more
than there is an attempt to survey the growth of electricity.
[ 133 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ments, chemical formulae, graphs, and messages in other alphabets and
in symbols.
Another prospective development is the solution of the problem of the
frequency standardization of radio wave lengths. Synchronous broad-
casting, begun in 1931, if successful should lead to an increase in the
number of stations and also to greater development of the chain system.19
The use of very short wave lengths, reported in 1931, tends likewise to
relieve channel crowding and makes room for television. The organization
of a radio broadcasting service for news transmission to newspapers seems
almost certain to develop.
The future of television, 1927, is usually looked upon with optimism,
despite the very great technical difficulties in scanning large fields, as an
athletic contest or a theatrical performance. Perhaps a less distant
prospect is the scanning of motion pictures and their transmission to
homes by "wired" wireless, with serious consequences to the motion
picture theaters. A developed television indeed will affect in many ways
the home, travel, education, politics, advertising and recreation.
In the field of health and medicine, there have been a number of
important electrical inventions, such as electro-surgery and electric
hearing. The electro-cardiograph, particularly through amplified records,
opens new possibilities in the study of the diseases of the heart. The
electric induction of fevers by short radio waves, a very recent invention,
raises the body temperature to a point where certain germs, possibly in
paresis, cannot live, and is suggestive for the future.20
Among other recent electrical inventions may be mentioned electric
precipitation, 1908, (1824) which removes valuable or noxious dusts,
especially sulphur, from discharged gases, (gas plant, 60u) and reduces
smoke appreciably. Still another invention with recent applications is the
electro-magnet for separating and grasping. It is now used for sorting ore
and blast furnace dust, for handling iron scrap and for taking stray iron
from mills, roads and eyes.
The rather simple invention of the hot electric coil, lOp, 1892, provides
a convenient and portable heat, and is used in flatirons, curling irons, hair
waving apparatus, sterilizers, heaters, fireless cookers, table stoves,
warming pads, aviators' clothing, infra-red lamps, driers in lieu of towels.
By their convenience these coils have helped to retain certain activities
in the home, at the same time helping to turn soda fountains into restau-
rants. They are also especially useful on ships, airplanes, cars, and in many
fixed industries.
The electric furnace, of arc and incandescent types, 1886 (1810), and
the induction type, 1890, is finding a growing number of uses, particularly
19 On the number of radio stations, see Chap. IV.
20 The X-ray and ultra-violet lamp are discussed below.
[ 134 ]
INVENTIONS
in making increasingly useful high grade alloy steels, ductile tungsten,
calcium carbide, artificial graphite, low expansion glass; in melting
platinum, purifying metals, making low expansion enameling, etc. It is one
of the most useful of the production inventions.
Chemical Inventions. — Among the chemical inventions the develop-
ment of cellulose nitrates first gave guncotton, 1847; then smokeless
powder, 1863-1886; celluloid, 1869; blasting gelatin, 1875; artificial
leather, 1882; and rayon, 1885. The related cellulose xanthate and acetate
produce other types of rayon, and these various forms of dissolved
cellulose yield plastics and quick drying, colorful varnishes, 1924. Rayon,
25u,21 has, because of its cheapness and wide use, lessened distinctions
between the social classes, influenced dress styles and interior decorating,
encouraged the use of color, home laundering, soaking soaps, the dry
cleaner and the like.
There are various new types of plastics and varnishes other than those
from cellulose. Plastics are used in camera films, drawing instruments,
toys, phonograph records, buttons, electrical apparatus for insula-
tion, billiard balls, fountain pens, eyeglass frames, hardwood substitutes,
noiseless gears, shatterproof glass, and as cellophane (transparent thin
sheets) for the preservation and display of merchandise. In other com-
binations, they make artificial leather, automobile tops and airplane dope;
spread as varnishes, they are used on automobiles, typewriters, machinery
and furniture. There are possibilities of developing a rich sculptural art
of molded forms in high colors by the use of these new types of plastics.
Butanol (process of 1919) is a principal solvent for laying on cellulose
lacquers and airplane dope. (Pyroxylin, llu; phenolic, etc., 55u; pyrox-
ylin varnishes, 40u.)
Basic to much of the chemical industry is nitrogen fixation, 1900—1903
(1785), since nitrogen furnishes ammonia and nitric acid, used for dis-
solving cellulose and in many other ways. The several processes of
nitrogen fixation are freeing the United States from dependence upon
Chilean nitrates.22
The chemical utilization of coal is found now largely in the by-products
of the coke oven, 1881 ff.,23 (1856). These by-products are illuminating
gas, coal tar, ammonia, benzol, toluol, naphthalene and others. They have
influenced the development of mechanical refrigeration, the nitrogen
industries, dyes and the use of color, perfumes, a variety of drugs, and
chemicals generally. With the recent development of pipe lines, the
prospect of breaking down coal at the mines is nearer. Piping of powdered
coal by air blast is now practicable for short distances.
21 For an index number on the manufacture of rayon, see Chap. XVII.
22 See discussion of nitrates in Chap. II.
23 The expression, 1881 ff., means that the date of commercial success was in 1881 and
the years immediately following.
[ 135 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Chemistry has done much with drugs, as aspirin, 1899, the barbitol
group of sedatives, 1903 ff., anaesthetics, disinfectants, as hexylresorcinol,
c. 1925, specifics, as salvarsan, 1910, and synthetic substitutes for glandular
extracts such as adrenalin.
Other recent 24 chemical discoveries and inventions are numerous and
important. Poison gas (and the gas mask) may greatly influence future
wars, since with the use of gas the ratio of killed and permanently disabled
to temporarily disabled is small, and since gas may be used on non-
combatants. The use of poison gas gives an advantage to nations with
highly developed chemical industries. Other types of gas masks are used
in fighting city and mine fires and in chemical industries.
The depth charge is a naval weapon which explodes at a predetermined
depth. It is especially effective against submarines, and was perhaps a
factor in limiting the building of battleships.
The development of insecticides and fungicides has had many suc-
cesses, the use of calcium arsenate for dusting cotton for boll weevil
being one.
Calcium carbide, 1895 (1862), gives acetylene gas for miners' lamps,
lanterns, rural cooking and light, and the blow torch. It is also used to fix
nitrogen by the cyanamid process. The blow torch particularly, using
oxygen, 1901 (1889), and cutting ferrous metals like a knife, is used in
wrecking, on armor plate, in building pipe lines and for cutting under
water.
Rubber anti-oxidants, c. 1925 (c. 1910), greatly prolong the life of
rubber, especially thin articles exposed to light, and also accelerate
vulcanization. Again, the hydrogenation of oils, 1902, makes cheap oils
like cottonseed, lOu, into solid fats available for cooking, soaps, candles.
Three hundred thousand tons are used yearly.
Of future chemical developments not yet mentioned, the utilization
of farm by-products is expected to increase, such as the making from
cornstalks, corn cobs, wheat stalks and oat hulls, of paper (c. 1928),
boards (c. 1929), insulation material (c. 1928), and furfural, 1921.
(Cottonseed oil and cake were developed much earlier.) There are also
possibilities of producing methane gas from ordinary sewage and corn
stalks. With electric and gas power, small factories may be located on or
near farms, thus giving impetus to corporation farming.
The transformation of cellulose and wood waste into edible foods has
been accomplished and may be of use in emergencies or for special foods.
24 Among the older inventions are dynamite and its mercuric detonator, 1867; smokeless
powder, 1863-1886; trinitrotoluol, 1891; liquid oxygen, 1895-1897; electrolytic chlorine
and soda process, c. 1890; Solvay soda process, 1861; paper by sulfite process, 1867; coal
tar dyes, 1856 ff.; cocaine, 1855, 1889; water gas process, 1875; gas illumination of trains,
1867, 1886; photographic dry plate, 1862; photographic film, 1887; and color photography,
1891.
[ 136 ]
INVENTIONS
Much attention has been given to the artificial ripening of fruits by gases
and by other methods, and these may find a limited use.
Other Inventions in Physics and Natural Science. — Liquid air,
1895-1898 (1877), finds use in science and in industry, the constituent
gases are easily distilled off, and cheap oxygen, lOu, is thus produced.
Liquid oxygen with lampblack is a safety explosive. Oxygen is indispen-
sable for torch cutting and welding, and useful in medicine, metallurgy
and chemistry. If oxygen could be distributed by pipes, many uses would
develop. Blast and other furnaces requiring great heat might profit by the
use of oxygen rather than air since four-fifths of air is nitrogen which is
useless in burning (though it transmits heat to other parts of the process).
In a machine age, welding is important to join metal to metal solidly.
Three new methods far superior to the old hammering process were
brought into use between 1886 and 1901; these melt the metal locally by
electricity , by the oxyacetylene torch or by thermit. Their greatest uses are
in making pipe lines, both seams and joints, thus leading to the extension
of the natural gas lines. Steel ships and skyscrapers are also now welded
noiselessly. Broken machinery is repaired in situ; worn gears are rebuilt;
and car rails are conjoined. Other uses are in wire fences, metal furniture,
airplanes, tanks, pressure vessels, submarines, kitchenware, mechanical
refrigerators25 and automobile bodies. (Electric welding sets, 25p.)
Some of the nitrogen used for fixation is distilled from liquid air.
Nitrogen is also used in electric bulbs, for fire protection and for preserv-
ing foods. Argon, another gas derived from air, goes into lamp bulbs.
Neon is transforming electric signs, and is used in fog beacons, television,
picture telegraphy and sound films. Helium is now secured only in very
limited quantities from air but if oxygen is produced from liquid air on a
large scale the supply of helium for airships might increase and it might
be used as a preservative of foods.
The X-ray, 1895, is well known for its many uses in medicine and
dentistry. In industry its largest use is in detecting flaws in castings
and weldings, but there is a great variety of uses for the X-ray, from
fitting shoes and detecting smuggled goods to testing the authenticity of
old paintings. Many important uses for it are found in physics, where it
has contributed much to our knowledge of the nature of light, of the
electron, and of each unit of matter from electron to crystal, especially in
solids and colloids. There are also some uses in biology, and in medicine
it has been another weighty item in the capital equipment of physicians,
and has thus encouraged organized medicine. X-rays in crystal diffraction
date from 1912.
Ultra-violet mercury vapor lamps, 1904-1906, improved by clear
fused quartz, 1924, are expected to have a great variety of uses in the
25 For index numbers on electrical household equipment, see Chap. XVII.
[ 137 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
future. Of the many physiological and hygienic effects claimed, the anti-
rachitic and germicidal are best established. Ultra-violet light is supposed
to ward off some forms of common cold, and to influence various glands
of internal secretion, the blood, and calcium metabolism, aiding particu-
larly the bones and teeth. It is also used in sterilizing, in putting vitamin
D in foods (1924), in testing dyes and paints, in drying patent leather,
in making hens lay and in many scientific experiments in chemistry,
physiology and biology. If cheap lamps become available for use on
ordinary current the reduced supply of ultra-violet light in smoky cities,
particularly in winter, will be counteracted. Cheap permanent ultra-
violet passing glass, experimented on a great deal recently, would also
aid in getting more ultra-violet from the sun.
Another development in the field of physics is geophysical pros-
pecting for ore and oil by means of magnetic, gravitational, seismic,
natural or created electric currents, by radio and by thermic methods.26
The airplane is used in some forms of prospecting, and in connection
therewith there has also developed phototopography, used in war for
military map making and profoundly modifying army intelligence and
stimulating camouflage. Civil cartography, sometimes stereoscopic,
far cheaper and quicker than ground surveying, is used in coastal measure-
ments, timber cruising, planning pipelines or railways, discovering
archaeological sites and general map making. Integral photography,
1928, showing depth without viewing apparatus, should be of value in
moving pictures and in many other ways.
The ultra-microscope, 1903 (1837), has lately been used with ultra-
violet light with much finer definition, thereby suggesting possibilities in
physics, chemistry and bacteriology.
The cathode ray tube seems to be a type of invention from which
many future uses are expected, but it is difficult to say what they will be.
Mass production of clear fused quartz, previously mentioned in con-
nection with the mercury lamp, should prove to be very useful in astron-
omy, optics, motion pictures, homes, laboratories, and any place where
heat must be withstood or radiation transmitted.
Reports on the study of long distance weather forecasting on the
basis of solar activity are encouraging, and if successful would be of great
use in planning production in manufacture and in agriculture, as well as of
service to man in travel and on vacations.
Inventions and Discoveries Relating to Metals. — Much recent work
on metals deals with the alloy steels.27 In a metal age hard cutting tools
are necessarily important. It has been demonstrated that tools may be
26 See material on discovery of new deposits, Chap. II.
27 Tungsten steel dates from 1868 and manganese, nickel and silicon steels from 1884,
1889 and 1906. Cheap steel by the Bessemer process goes back to 1856, open hearth to
1866, and the basic process to 1879.
[ 138 1
INVENTIONS
still harder without iron, as in the case of tungsten carbide in cobalt.
Such tools can cut concrete and porcelain neatly and have many possible
uses. Stainless and rustless alloys of steel are finding varied uses, as in
tools, household utensils, screens, on automobiles and airships, and in
architecture. Ductile tungsten, 1909 (1892), is also invaluable in lamps,
15u, thermionic valves, X-ray and other electrical apparatus. Metals
today are often ground down instead of cut (1886) by wheels of car-
borundum, 1891, 3u, and alundum.28
Of the various processes of dealing with metal, there should be noted
metal spray plating, 1913, by which molten metal is blown on almost any
substance, thereby giving greater durability and other properties. There
are also many art possibilities with this process. Metal is finding a use on
buildings for both decorativeness and durability.
The search for light metals becomes more avid with the growth of
transportation, especially air transportation. Aluminum, by electrolysis,
1886, is being increasingly used (lOu) but much appears to be expected
of the lighter beryllium in alloys, particularly as the new metal is being
cheapened. Its use in airplanes might be very significant.
Perhaps it should also be stated that metallurgists are still working
at the problem of producing cheap steel directly from the ore by other
methods than the electric furnace, or the coke blast furnaces.
Power Inventions. — Although the basic power inventions are old29
the growth in use of power has been very great in recent years. The annual
supply of energy from fuels and water power produced in the United
States increased about 20 percent30 from the World War up to 1929,
while the installed capacity of prime movers in factories, mines and
electric plants increased much faster, nearly 50 percent between 1917
and 1927,31 due to more efficient combustion. The use of this great power
capacity,32 often represented as the equivalent of about 100 slaves per
person, is indicated in the account of the various inventions of machines.
The subject of power is treated in another chapter, and only the
social influence of a few recent developments will be noted here. Oil burn-
ing, while dating from 1863, has greatly increased in homes, 40u, and
28 Among the earlier inventions regarding metals should be mentioned electrolytic
refining, 1889; microscopic metallurgy, 1860; cyanide process for gold and silver, 1888,
flotation process for non-ferrous metals, c. 1903; and the method of drawing seamless
tubes, 1890, 29u.
29 Among these are the electric power inventions centering around the dynamo, 1866-
1890; the lead storage battery, 1865; the gas engine, 1860, 1878; producer gas, 1856;
natural gas wells, c. 1872; petroleum wells, 1859; reciprocating triple expansion steam
engines, 1881; Giffard injectors, 1858; and the Pelton wheel, 1880.
30 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United
States, 1930, p. 367. On the rise of water power, see Chap. II.
31 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Commerce Yearbook, 1930, vol. 1,
United States, p. 266.
32 Much of this capacity is in automobiles which are used only a fragment of the time.
[ 139 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
on ships, 5u, where it is not only a great convenience but diminishes the
terrible labor of marine stoking. Sailing ships are disappearing from use.
International relations have been greatly affected by struggle for oil
fields.
The Diesel engine, 120u, 1897 (1888), burning cheap, heavy oil, has
made great progress In motorships, 25u, locomotives and power plants,
and has recently been adapted to automobiles, airplanes and airships,
lessening fire risks and saving fuel weight and cost. Petroleum crack-
ing, 1908-1914 (1860), 15u, yields increasing proportions of gasoline with
anti-knock qualities, even 100 percent, or whatever distillates be desired,
by the hydrogenation process, 1930. From natural gas is extracted natural
gasoline, 1904 (1880), and the gases propane and butane. These are
easily liquified and thus transported, to furnish gas in rural homes and
for industrial uses.
In connection with gas and gasoline, there should be mentioned the
development of pipe lines, 1875, greatly stimulated since about 1915 by
the new welding processes (natural gas, lOu, and consumers, 7u).33
This movement has reduced railroad and water transport revenues and
affected coal mining. It has also meant the conservation of gas and oil,
less dust, noise and smells, assistance to helium production, and a saving
of domestic toil at the cookstove and furnace. Piping gasoline along the
highways is expected.
The steam turbine, 1866, invaluable for electric generation, lOu, has
recently, 1910, been geared to the low speed propellers of slow ships, and
an exhaust turbine, 1928, has been geared to a reciprocating high pressure
marine engine.
Mechanical firing of boilers, 1845 (1800), and the use of pulverized
fuel, 1895, 13u, have spread rapidly since 1920, especially in central power
places, 35u, and has raised the thermal efficiency of boilers up to 90 per-
cent. Mechanical stoking has increased the size of locomotives, hitherto
limited by human stoking power, has lightened the hard labor of the
locomotive fireman, enabling him to watch the engine and track, and it
affords a new market for slack coal. Not the least of its social effects is
the aid it gives in eliminating smoke in cities, removing carbon and thus
allowing more ultra-violet light to pass. Mechanical stoking moreover is
being adapted to the smaller apartment houses, and even to single family
dwellings, thereby competing with the oil burner.
The light alkaline storage battery, 1905-1915, has found convenient
uses in short distance transportation in city streets, terminals and
factories, thus lessening the toil of common labor.
Power has been such a help to mankind that it is usually at the fore-
front in imagination, and there has been much speculation about future
33 For index number on production of natural gas, see Chap. II.
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INVENTIONS
sources.34 Electrical power from tide and waves are old dreams, and
there are experimental stations off the coast of France. The sun as a
source of power is another idea that will not down, and there are certain
regions that could benefit greatly if this idea should be realized. The
heating of water or oil by mirrored rays has not led to much optimism,
but several methods for deriving electrical energy directed from sandwich
cells activated by sunlight are now reported, the most recent and suc-
cessful using silver selenide.
More realistic perhaps are the experiments now being made in sub-
stituting for water in boilers other liquids such as mercury with a high
boiling point, or sulphur dioxide with a low boiling point, all to increase
efficiency. Claude's spectacular success in 1930, after two very costly
wrecks, in producing power from the wide temperature differences be-
tween surface and deep sea water in the Caribbean may perhaps help
in possible future upbuilding of that zone, where there is little coal or
available water power.
Transportation Inventions.35 — The social effects of the various
transportation inventions are changing, owing to the revolutionary inven-
tions in electric and internal combustion engines, and in road and air
vehicles. The automobile is treated more fully in the following chapter,
but some account should be given here of certain of its social influences.
The automobile, lOu, 1880-1887, came into general use following the
invention of the multiple disk clutch, c. 1907, and that of the self-starter.
To think of the automobile as a more speedy substitute for the horse is to
underestimate its influence. It has greatly increased and dispersed trans-
portation, cut down railroad traffic, especially on short hauls, lessened
the isolation of the farmer, aided the consolidation of small schools and
churches, has helped, along with electricity, to disperse factories, and has
developed a new type of vacation.
The automobile has also increased accidents, increased the activities
of the police courts, and affected a great variety of businesses from the
rubber industry to hotels and restaurants. There have been many lesser
effects, such as influence on family recreation on Sunday, and many
derivative effects, such as the lessening of the significance of boundary
lines between states.
As to the future changes in the automobile, it appears uncertain
whether the oil engine, now adapted to the automobile, will be used
extensively. The electric truck has been fitted with various lifting devices,
34 For further discussion of inexhaustible energy sources, see Chap. II.
35 As a heading for a group of inventions transportation, like power, is not on quite
the same plane as the other headings used since it is a function rather than a physical
property or a process; but perhaps it will serve since there are certain similarities in the
physical properties of transportation inventions. Compare this section with material in
Chap. IV.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the lift truck dating from 1913, 30u. Freight containers transferable
between truck and freight car are a novelty with perhaps a great future.
As to rail transportation, the electric locomotives on Class I railways
have doubled in number in fifteen years. Like electric coaches they save
coal, lessen noise and smoke and stimulate suburban traffic. Regenerative
braking has been used on inclines with appreciable saving of electricity.
The multiple unit system of controlling electric trains, 1891-1897
(c.1880), has been extended, bringing safety and speed, while automatic
train control, 1899, making signals conclusive, has saved life, time and
tracks. The Diesel electric locomotive and rail motor car (1897) are useful
in local service and switching, giving free time to firemen and saving
smoke.36 (Val. 25p.)
The use of refrigeration in transportation, while employing an early
principle, is developing along many lines. The glass lined tank car has
been used for transporting milk from Wisconsin to Florida in summer.
Refrigerator cars creating cold from the turn of the car wheels were
reported in 1930. The quick freezing of vegetables and meats also aids
in their transportation and distribution, possibly affecting the future
of the butcher shop. Frozen carbon dioxide, or dry ice, though somewhat
expensive, is being used in local transportation.
Transportation across water has been affected by the general progress
in machinery, in construction and in engines. The hydroplane embodies
an interesting principle for light transportation, in supporting the
vessel, through a novel hull form, by the dynamic rather than the
flotation method. Its use is on airplanes and motor boats, a novelty
being a boat which at full speed touches the water only by very small
submerged hydrofoils, the hull rising above the water.37 Hydro-air-
planes, 15u, are useful for transportation in certain regions where the
landing places on land are less convenient or numerous than those on
water. Streamlined rudders, 1920, 1925, are now being used increasingly
as an aid to power and speed.
Still another idea is that of the creation and perception of under-
water sounds, 1904, (1826) used for communication by submarines and
ships, chiefly for locating underwater bell guiding stations, and the ocean
bottom. This idea may have other scientific uses, as, for instance, the
prediction of earthquakes by soundings of the ocean floor. The social
significance of the submarine, 1900, in affecting the balance of power of
nations, in limiting the construction of battleships, in bringing mer-
chantmen into war, etc., should not be forgotten.
36 Other developments are the booster and auxiliary locomotive, the articulated loco-
motive (to TJ. S. in 1904), and the single phase high tension A. C. motor, 1902.
37 Another novel invention of perhaps limited use is the rotor, a revolving cylinder,
replacing an inclined plane. About 1923, a rotor ship without sails crossed the Atlantic,
using wind (with a little other power) on the rotor.
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INVENTIONS
A singular device used in water and air transportation is the gyrostat.
It was first utilized in 1886 to take observations despite the rolling of the
ship. The gyro compass, 1908, 29p, excels the magnetic, and makes
mechanical steering possible. It guides the torpedo and is most promising
as an airplane stabilizer for automatic flying in fog. As a ship stabilizer,
1904, 1914, 5p, a wheel 13 feet in diameter will steady a 17,000 ton ship.
The gyrostat has also been tried in connection with a mono-railroad.
There are various devices for seeing through fogs. Thus a television
apparatus, 1929, transforms long infra-red wave lengths into shorter
visible ones, thereby extending vision from a few hundred yards to a mile
or so. The infra-red searchlight is a complement. Perhaps there may be
many applications of this idea, as the demands for the extension of the
field of sight by airplanes, ships, armies and in television are great.
The spectacular growth of transportation by air is well known
(gasoline 85u).38 The airplane as an instrument of war, 1903-1908,
tends to add to the might of the advanced land powers, to weaken the
sea powers, and to threaten the interior of belligerent countries. In
peace times besides being a method of fast transport, especially in desert
or semi-populated regions, carrying passengers, express, news, mail
and medicine, the airplane is used in exploration, in timber cruising,
for photography, in archaeology, in projecting railroads and pipelines, for
fighting forest fires, for finding schools of fish or seal, for sight seeing,
for vicarious sport, for scattering seeds or insecticides, for advertising,
for locating shipwrecks and lost persons, for carrying provisions to the
marooned and for tracking criminals. If the mail snatching devices be
found practical, air mail services to villages and rural regions will offer
another quick means of communication with the outside world. The
airship, 1895, has somewhat similar effects in war and in peace. It is
used for long touring and for cruising over regions where an airplane
would have difficulty in landing. The wind tunnel is an interesting
invention that aids in testing designs of aircraft, though also used for
testing winds on buildings, towers and sails.
The future development of the airplane appears to be involved
in part with the problem of flying safely through fog. Inventions which
help to solve this problem are the gyrostatic stabilizer, 1926, the radio
beam, 1920, the earth inductor compass, 1926, the echo altimeter, 1924-
1931, the modulated beacon light, neon light and the radio telephone.
Other important developments are those permitting taking off and
landing at low speed in small or rough places. Among inventions of this
type are the autogyro, 1924, the helicopter, 1921, wing slots and flaps,
1914-1921, and the low wing. These inventions, to the degree to which
they prove successful, permit the use of small landing places near or in
38 For figures on air transportation, see Chap. IV.
r 143 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
cities where people live and where room is scarce, but most important
are their benefits in securing greater safety.
Inventions Used in Building. — One of the most socially significant
inventions is that of skeletal construction, 1884, which together with
elevators, 1855, central heating, fire protection and improved plumbing
and lighting inventions, has led to the tall apartment house, hotel, and
loft building, and the skyscraper office structure. (Ferro-concrete build-
ings, 10 stories up, 10p.)39 They in turn have added to business district
congestion, with such derivative effects as smaller families, loss of family
functions, stimulation of public parks and playgrounds and of manual
training in schools, the encouragement to congregate living by common
nurseries, cooperative laundries and apartments, fireproof construction,
new architectural forms and zoning laws.
A new development in this field is air control for coolness and moisture
content. Beginning in the interest of manufactured products, air control
has been extended to theaters, restaurants, hotels, offices and railroad
trains. Besides meaning much for comfort, health and efficiency, it may
be a step in the further development of cultures in southern climates.
The treatment of water and sewage, though based on chemical prin-
ciples, involves constructional problems. To the methods of improving
Lwater have been added those of chlorination, 1908—1912, and the elimina-
tion of hardness, permitting the better exploitation of various sources of
supply. The obtaining of fresh water from the sea seems to be near
economic realization, and would benefit certain sections of the coast of
South America and Africa as well as certain larger seaports where the
extension of metropolitan regions menaces the sources of their water supply.
The air flights to Europe have elicited many models of floating islands,
which may be developed for other uses as well. For Claude's power proj-
ect such islands may be found very desirable. Once developed they would
permit the extension of the urban coastal population a short distance
seaward for various purposes.
Inventions of Larger Production Machines. — The inventions and
improvements in the various machines of production are, of course, very
numerous, and it is impossible to cover even in brief all the chief develop-
ments of recent years. Some forms of this machinery have been dealt with
under other categories, and others are of no interest here since their social
effects are noted in the description of consumers' goods which they help to
produce. Even so it has been thought best to treat the smaller machines
under the next grouping.
In agriculture machines are being adopted widely at present, and
are having a great social influence, particularly through saving labor,
adding to the equipment costs of farms, requiring new knowledge and
39 For additional material, see Chap. IX.
[ 144 ]
INVENTIONS
skills, increasing production, introducing marketing problems, causing
further migration from farms, and increasing the size of farms and thus
perhaps taking agriculture a step nearer to the corporate organization.
The tractor, 1901, has varied uses on the farm (tractor farms, 15u),
saving labor, reducing the number of farm animals and fodder crops,
and increasing the crops for human consumption.40 With a belt the tractor
provides motive power for machines which cut ensilage, shell corn, saw
wood, etc. It is not confined to the farm but is used widely in construction,
in industry and around terminals. The caterpillar tread, c. 1904 (1770),
is used on soft ground for towing and for self-mobile engineering equip-
ment. Its effect in war in changing army practice through the tank is
well known (round wheel type, lOp). The combined harvester and
thresher, 1886 (1828), was not made in small sizes until about 1905, and
the period of rapid advance has been since the war. It has saved much
hard farm labor, and has reduced labor migration and the task of feeding
large numbers of harvest hands. The milking machine, 1905 (1819, 1849),
had led to specialization in large dairies. It lowers costs, reducing the
milking staff by a half to a third in the case of larger herds.
In regard to cotton, there are cotton pickers and pullers on the
market, but their use has not yet become widespread. The cotton sled,
which crudely strips off all the bolls at once, has been widely employed
in northwest Texas where conditions are peculiarly fit for its use. The
development and adoption of a cotton picker in the south might be a
serious blow to the small marginal farmer, who has been back of some
interesting political and social movements, and would encourage large
scale farming.41 The migration of Negroes to the cities would also be
stimulated and this would affect race relations and the future of the
Negro race. The sugar cane cutter might have very serious consequences
for other crop lands, particularly Cuba.
Machinery has been invented which is completing the tardy mechani-
zation of the flax industry: the flax puller, 1921, and the automatic
breaking and scutching machine, 1926. An ensilage chopping harvester
was reported in 1929. And a demonstration has been reported of a corn
combine which pulls and shells the corn. There are, of course, a great
number of other agricultural machines, some of which were developed at
an early date,42 while others are of much less social significance than those
above mentioned.
In the coal mining industry, coal cutting machinery, 1893 (1887), 2u,
has been installed increasingly but not so fast of late as coal loading
40 See also Chap. II.
41 For additional discussions see Chap. II.
42 Among these may be listed various improvements in harvesting machinery, 1858-
1879, the lister, the check-row corn planter, the centrifugal creamer, 1881, the plow sulky,
1868; and here might be mentioned the flour milling machinery of 1875-1879.
[ 145 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
machinery, 1905-1922, 70u. Other mining machinery in its social aspects
is mentioned in the chapter on natural resources.43 All result in a reduc-
tion in the toil of labor.
Textile machinery had an early development with, of course, profound
social effects. Power loom silk weaving came at a much later date than
the cotton loom. The endless belt conveyor has been an important
factor in mass production methods. The development of trench digging
machinery has greatly reduced the cost of laying pipe and digging drainage
and irrigation ditches. Invention in connection with printing and paper
making had a particularly brilliant but early development, with a rather
rapid extension of the rotary presses since the war. Recently the speed
press has been adapted to color and picture printing with important
effects upon advertising and decoration. High grade color work is begin-
ning in the daily newspapers. Inventions likely to affect typesetting are
facsimile transmission and the teletypesetter, 1930.44 This latter invention
is an adaptation of the teletype machine, 1926, a new form of the printing
telegraph, 1855. The teletype, 66u, permits a typist to print messages
simultaneously in distant stations, and is used for telegrams, news,
weather reports and stock market reports, and is utilized increasingly
by factories, commercial houses and police authorities for interdepart-
mental communication. An extension of the service to include various
houses or subscribers with a central exchange like that of the telephone
is planned. The teletype machine, when typing a perforated band in code
which is used in setting type, becomes a teletypesetter. It has possibilities
for increased speed and for a great reduction in labor if it can be adapted
to the complexity of the newspaper office and would tend to make pro-
vincial newspapers part of the metropolitan chain. A photo-composing
machine, without metal type, is being improved.
Other inventions concerned with communication are the moving
picture camera and projector and the talking picture equipment.45 The
effects of the moving picture, 1892 (1859, 1864), are to a great extent
unassessable, yet it is generally assumed that they affect manners and
morals, and the standards of conduct of the young, particularly by intro-
ducing the folkways of cities into isolated places. Their educational force
is great in the sense of spreading information about customs and lands.
The moving picture affected the theater, athletics, study habits of the
young, play and novel writing. In science there are X-ray moving pictures,
historical records, studies of wild life and of microscopic creatures, slow
motion pictures of quick action, etc. The results of the moving picture
development were little foreseen.
43 Chap. II.
44 See above, p. 133.
45 Additional discussion may be found in Chaps. IV and XVIII.
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INVENTIONS
The sound picture, 1922, 1926, was dependent for its extremely
rapid final success on the loud speaker. Electric amplification without
distortion has been attained, but there is still distortion in reproduction.
Some striking consequences have been the mechanical theater, and
revalorization of the speaking actor. Also language problems have been
raised with grave threat to the hegemony of the American film. It gives
little encouragement to the small languages, provides opportunities for
studying foreign tongues and, where English is understood, spreads
Americanisms. Ten thousand theater musicians suddenly lost their jobs;
and the moving picture industry had to make radical readjustments.
The educational and scientific uses of this invention are little utilized as
yet, and it may have important effects upon schools and colleges.
Miscellaneous Inventions of Material Objects and Mechanical
Devices. — In the category of miscellaneous inventions may be mentioned
first the growing influences of the various computing and tabulating
machines, particularly since they have been electrified. Their aid to speed
and accuracy of large scale business recording is very great, with much
saving of labor and provision of occupations for women, particularly in
the case of the card punching and assorting machines, 5u. Their service
to banks and government bureaus is great; and it is difficult to think of an
accurate social science evolving without such aids.
Of a somewhat similar nature are the small machines for writing,
of which the foremost are the typewriter, 1873 (1714), lOp, the mimeo-
graph machine and the letter addressing devices. Nearly a million new
typewriters were produced in the United States in 1929, almost double
the number in 1921. The typewriter is a great stimulus to writing and
record keeping. It has given writing and reading to the blind, and typing
constitutes an important occupation of women. Adaptations of the
typewriter have been made to telegraph instruments and to the numerical
listing and computing machines. In 1913-1916, a machine was made
which wrote in a legible alphabet when spoken to, but it has never been
developed for commercial exploitation; such a novel fundamental inven-
tion usually requires long and expensive development before being made
suitable for common use. Since it would appear to require a language
new in many regards, it seems at least far distant. The service of such a
machine to a people who spend much time in writing would be very
important indeed.
Of aid to science and business has been the development of the card
index principle, c. 1876, which is of great utility to libraries; and the
invention of the cash register, 1879, should also be noted. These are both
fairly old46 but the process of diffusion has by no means ceased. A very
46 Among the many miscellaneous older inventions of small material objects and
mechanical devices may be mentioned ball and roller bearings, the air brake, 1869, 1872,
portable percussion instruments, mechanical glass blower, c. 1880, the cigarette machine,
[ 147 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
significant business invention, if it may be so classified, was that of
motion study of human beings, 1879-1901; this is still finding wide appli-
cation not only to the advantage of efficiency in production, but also to
the advantage of labor in lessened fatigue and possibly in lessened
monotony, with derivative effect on the relations of employer and
employee.
A small but interesting device in the aid of business is the slot machine,
20p. Early uses appear to have been in telephone booths, on transporta-
tion vehicles, and for the sale of small articles, such as chewing gum and
candy. Lately the principle has been used in restaurants, soda fountains,
cigar stores, breweries, and even in homes. The slot machine is also
employed in selling sandwiches, fruit, peanuts, handkerchiefs, stamps,
pencils, nameplates, combs, towels and prophylactics. The principle
has been applied to scales, muscial instruments, mechanical shows, games,
museums, shooting galleries, gambling devices, toilets, shoe shining
machines and turnstiles. It facilitates speed and is a further step in the
mechanization of life, saving labor and bringing a new kind of salesman-
ship into being. One gasps to think of the possible extensions in the
future.
There are a number of smaller machines and mechanical devices
affecting the household as well as business. Several of these have already
been referred to. Certain others deserve mention, such as the very widely
used domestic electric washing machine, c. 1905, which has probably
slowed up the departure of the laundry industry from the home, and
perhaps decreased the number of servants.47 It has also had effects on
cleanliness, the life of clothing and the working time of women. Soft
collars and rayon may have been encouraged by its use.
Another important home convenience is that of the domestic mechan-
ical refrigerator, c. 1917, 95p, which with its lower temperatures has
greater possibilities than the old type of refrigerator. It is an illustration
of a home machine injuring a factory.
The tin can, 1811 (canning, 1778), did not become free from the
danger of solder until 1903. Painting by a vegetable enamel, c. 1910,
prevents discoloration and loss of flavor. Canning has simplified the
preparation of food, the almost universal occupation of women in the
past, and has given a better all year supply of vitamins. The value of
goods canned in 1929 was nearly a billion dollars, 10u.48
Another significant process is packaging, which has been aided since
the war by improvements in packing machines, by paper box machinery,
1876, wire glass, 1891, electric fan, 1886, carpet sweeper, 1876, linoleum, 1862, and certain
gun inventions, 1860-1880, viz., breach loading, repeating, disappearing and machine
guns.
47 For an index number on washing machines, see Chap. XVII.
48 For discussion of canned goods in relation to the family, see Chap. XIII.
[ 148 ]
INVENTIONS
by the reworking of second hand paper and by cellophane, 1908-1923.
The packaging of candy, cigars, milk (experiments with fibre containers
are reported), ice cream, drinks, prepared foods, cleaned garments, etc.,
aids sanitation, cleanliness (except for waste paper on the streets), sales-
manship, advertising, and the preservation of original qualities. Eating
habits are affected and the home is more dependent upon the store (pack-
ing machinery, 10u).49
The phonograph, largely a household instrument, may be assigned
a place among the musical machines. It was conceived in 1863, demon-
strated in 1877, successful in 1888, used as a dictaphone in the 1890's
and became popularized with the disk record about 1894. Suffering in
the 1920's from radio competition, it has become adapted to some of
the radio inventions.50 Originally a scientific toy, it became great as a
musical instrument and not for purposes of dictation, recitations, or
recording the words of dying persons, to cite three of the ten uses Edison
foresaw. Together with the player piano, it was an effective factor in
the development of modern dancing, and has perhaps promoted family
life at home. It is also used in recording dialects and in teaching languages.
Another likely development is the new dictaphone recording of both
sides of a telephone conversation.
There seems to be also a concentration of effort to produce new types
of musical instruments by taking advantage of the new electrical inven-
tions; one of very probable success, c. 1928, is based on the photographing
on plates of the various notes of any or all instruments and playing from a
console adapted to fairly small space. There are experiments along other
lines. The telharmonium, 1897, has been revived employing the new
electrical inventions, producing variations in wave lengths by vacuum
tubes, yielding any desired tones directly for broadcasting. Such an
instrument would be too costly for private use, but it would appear that
a development along these general lines might have great effect on music.
Biological Inventions and Discoveries. — Discoveries in the biological
sciences regarding plants and the lower forms of animal life as well as
human life, together with certain chemical and mechanical inventions
closely related thereto, should be added to the groupings which have
preceded.
First should be mentioned discoveries in regard to breeding and the
science of eugenics. Knowledge of heredity has been increased greatly
since Mendel's researches became known, but this knowledge has been
best worked out only with such animals as the fruit fly. Mutations have
been produced by the X-ray, certainly a revolutionary suggestion. Thus
far the knowledge in regard to the breeding of humans that seems most
49 Additional material may be found in Chap. XVII.
50 An index number is given in Chap. XVII.
[ 149 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
suitable to social application and control is concerned with the inheritance
of certain defects. The sterilization of the feebleminded and insane is
being undertaken in some states.51 The possibility of raising the racial
average by propagation from the better stocks is attractive and has
undoubtedly a future.
Cross breeding and selection among domestic animals and plants
has been highly developed on the practical side as, for instance, with
the loganberry and the spineless cactus. New plants and animals have
been imported and bred, as for instance, durum wheat, and new uses
have been found for old plants, as the Jerusalem artichoke, which yields
sweet levulose with a very large food quantity per acre. Entomological
developments have the same general effect of improving plant and animal
production.
The new discoveries regarding foods for humans, particularly in
vitamins,52 improve the health of the people, although these improve-
ments are not passed on to the next generation by heredity. Their sig-
nificance for the growth of children is particularly great.53 Researches
indicate that increased stature is largely a function of feeding in child-
hood and of the lessening of childhood diseases. Ultra-violet light has
somewhat the effect of vitamin D, which also affects the absorption of
calcium, thus influencing teeth and bones. These vitamins give better
resistance to many different afflictions, one vitamin in particular, 62,
preventing pellagra, which has affected large areas in the south. The
irradiation of foods, 1921-1925, increases the vitamin content. Dis-
coveries regarding minerals in foods, as for instance, copper and manga-
nese (which affects the feeding of the young by the mother and is said
to encourage mother love) have the same general trend.
It is true that medical practice has sometimes lagged behind medical
knowledge,54 but nevertheless the environment of the race has been made
more healthy and the stock itself has been improved during a lifetime,
with the result of preserving many who otherwise would not have lived.
What effect this increased survival may have on the race is not known,
but there has been discussion as to its possible deteriorating influence,
which would be a matter of social importance.55
The story of medical progress is brilliant and well known, and includes
such notable things as the anti-toxins and vaccines, the knowledge of
the transmission of disease by insects and bacteria, the tests for specific
diseases, the knowledge of sanitation, the treatment of specific diseases,
the use of drugs, anaesthetics, surgical instruments and sterilization.
61 For a summary of the laws, see Chap. XXVIII.
62 Vitamin A, 190&-1915; B, 1889-1897; B2, 1915-1927; C, 1912; D, 1921, andE, 1922.
63 On child nutrition, see Chap. XV.
64 This question is discussed in Chap. XII.
66 See Chap. XXI.
[ 150 ]
INVENTIONS
These discoveries have revolutionized medical practice and science, and
have led to the development of hospitals and clinics, and to the beginning
of a more highly organized medical practice. They have been accom-
panied by the extension of government further into the medical field,
especially that of sanitation and public health nursing. Trades and
industries have been regulated in the interests of health. The medical
aspects of war have been changed.
Finally may be mentioned certain discoveries in physiology, as for
instance, the treatment of the young during adolescence and of women
during menopause, and the treatment of the aging as well as special
illnesses and defects by glandular therapy.56 Better physiological knowl-
edge has also been used with profit in some cases of goiter; and the feeding
of thyroxin to cretins as also to the higher grades of mental defectives
has been most spectacular. The success of endocrine researches on the
lower animals leads to a certain amount of optimism for the future as
regards humans. The prospects are as dazzling as those of eugenics, for
if means are discovered for the control of mentality, temperament,
personality, growth and decay, the social consequences would be truly
remarkable.
There is a growing knowledge of the control of ovulation in the
body, and this leads to speculation as to the possibility in the future
of regulating safely and usefully the feminine reproductive cycle. The
spread of the use of contraceptives is not without biological implications.
The differential birth rates among the social classes are supposed to have
at present dysgenic effects, but as time has passed, it is claimed they
have become eugenic in some localities. The differential use of contra-
ceptives among nations is influential as a cause of war. Contraceptives
have been effective in changing the age distribution of the population
and heightening the problem of the care of the aged, particularly in cities
where space is limited and the mobility of population is great. The
reduction in the rate of population increase affects the ratio to food,
natural resources and capital, and hence is of significance for the standard
of living.57 The use of contraceptives may not be without influence on
codes of morality. Resulting small or childless families mean effects on
divorce and on the personality and material welfare of children.
The survey of recent influences of inventions, though an imposing
picture of the many and varied changes in society which science and the
machine are producing, is incomplete in several regards. These omissions,
which it was impossible to avoid, will not be described here, but an
attempt is made in the two following sections to compensate for them.
66 This is a rapidly evolving field of research, but the following significant discoveries
may be mentioned: dessicated thyroid feeding and synthetic thyroxin, 1901-1926, adrenalin,
1902, pituitrin, 1906-1925, insulin, 1923, and products of the super-arenal cortex, 1928.
67 Birth control in relation to population is discussed in Chap. I.
[ 151 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
III. THE EXTENT OF INVENTIONAL INFLUENCE
A satisfactory conception of the far reaching effects of inventions
still remains inadequately presented, for in the preceding section only a
very few of the effects of the more significant inventions were mentioned.
To remedy this omission, several inventions were studied intensively
to see how widespread were the social changes occasioned. One hundred
and fifty such social effects were noted for the radio, and one of these,
merely as an illustration, was further expanded into fifteen. Before pro-
ceeding to the presentation of this list, it is desirable to make a few
preliminary explanations of terms and methods.
Social Effects of the Radio. — The purpose of this study of the radio
is to give some idea of the extent of its influence rather than to prove
particular causal58 relationships. It hardly seems necessary to try to prove
such statements about the effect of the radio as that "a new recreation
has been provided for the home" or "music has been popularized.'*
These statements are obvious, as are nearly all of those listed. In some
cases, however, the influence is not quite obvious but appears probable
although adequate proof has not been found. This is the case in regard
to the effect of the radio on piano sales, about which the statement is
made that "The market for the piano has declined. The radio may be
a factor." The wording here cautions against a completely definite con-
clusion, but suggests that there is a probability of relationship.
In some cases the effects may not be easily apparent, because obscured
by other more powerful forces operating in the opposite direction. As an
illustration, the radio, through the broadcasting of educational matters
and current events to adults at home, is said to lessen the differences
that often appear between parents and their children because of the fact
that their respective educations have differed greatly. This influence,
a very small one, may possibly be quite obscured by opposite forces such
as growing compulsory attendance for more school hours and more
particularly by the increasing number of children who go to high school.
Many minor influences are mentioned because the purpose is to show
the numerous varieties of effects rather than only the important ones.
Thus mention of the minor influence of the radio on illiterates is made
next to the statement of the vastly important result that isolated regions
68 The word "causal" is used in the sense of concomitant variation, other factors being
constant. Thus the radio is a cause of loss in piano sales, if an increase in radios is accom-
panied by a decrease in piano sales, other conditions being the same. It is a cause no matter
how slight the reduction in sales, although in popular language in such a case it would be
spoken of as a slight causal factor rather than as a cause. A factor may be a cause even
though in its absence the phenomenon continues to exist. For instance, had there been no
radio, piano sales might have fallen off anyway (though not so much) due to such other
factors as diminishing home space, sales of phonographs, or the effective competition of
automobile or moving pictures.
INVENTIONS
are brought through the radio in contact with world activity. The effects
listed are, therefore, very uneven. So also, some of the minor influences
might have been merged into some of the more general influences, if the
purpose had been to generalize instead of to pursue the opposite course
of breaking the effects down into detailed ones.
The effects listed are not necessarily permanent. They may change
with time. Thus, apparently the radio was used more several years ago
for setting up exercises in the morning than it is today. Nevertheless such
exercises were an effect of the radio, and may be listed as such.
An invention may have effects in opposite directions. For example,
the radio has caused a revival of old songs, but it has greatly popularized
new songs also. It may improve diction and pronunciation yet at the
same time encourage certain types of localisms in pronunciation.
These preliminary considerations will compensate somewhat for
the paucity of explanation in the following lists. The effects are not
confined to the United States. The statements of effects are collected
under appropriate headings to facilitate reading. Some statements might
equally well have been placed under different classifications. The number-
ing is largely for citation; some of the effects overlap; if those cited had
been broken down into others, the list would have been longer.
EFFECTS OF THE RADIO TELEGRAPH AND TELEPHONE AND
OF RADIO BROADCASTING
I. ON UNIFORMITY AND DIFFUSION
1. Homogeneity of peoples increased because of like stimuli.
2. Regional differences in cultures become less pronounced.
3. The penetration of the musical and artistic city culture into villages and country.
4. Ethical standards of the city made more familiar to the country.
5. Distinctions between social classes and economic groups lessened.
6. Isolated regions are brought in contact with world events.
7. Illiterates find a new world opened to them.
8. Restriction of variation through censorship resulting in less experiment and more
uniformity. ,
9. Favoring of the widely spread languages.
10. Standardization of diction and discouragement of dialects.
11. Aids in correct pronunciation, especially of foreign words.
12. Cultural diffusion among nations, as of United States into Canada and vice versa.
II. ON RECREATION AND ENTERTAINMENT
13. Another agency for recreation and entertainment.
14. The enjoyment of music popularized greatly.
15. Much more frequent opportunity for good music in rural areas.
16. The manufacture of better phonograph music records encouraged.
17. The contralto favored over sopranos through better transmission.
18. Radio amplification lessens need for loud concert voices.
19. Establishment of the melodramatic playlet with few characters and contrasted
voices.
20. Revival of old songs, at least for a time.
21. Greater appreciation of the international nature of music.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
22. Entertainment for invalids, blind, partly deaf, frontiersmen, etc.
23. With growth of reformative idea, more prison installations.
24. Interest in sports increased, it is generally admitted.
25. Slight stimulation to dancing at small gatherings.
26. Entertainment on trains, ships and automobiles.
III. ON TRANSPORTATION
27. Radio beams, enabling aviators to remain on course.
28. Directional receivers guide to port with speed and safety.
29. Aid furnished to ships in distress at sea.
30. Greater safety to airplanes in landing. Radio system also devised now for blind
landing.
31. Chronometers are checked by time signals.
32. Broadcast of special weather reports aids the aviator.
33. Brokerage offices on ships made possible.
34. Receipt of communications en route by air passengers.
35. Communication between airplanes and ships.
36. Ships directed for better handling of cargoes.
IV. ON EDUCATION
37. Colleges broadcast classroom lectures.
38. Broadcasting has aided adult education.
39. Used effectively in giving language instruction.
40. Purchasing of text books increased slightly, it is reported.
41. Grammar school instruction aided by broadcasting.
42. Health movement encouraged through broadcast of health talks.
43. Current events discussion broadcast.
44. International relations another important topic discussed, with some social effects,
no doubt.
45. Broadcasting has been used to further some reform movements.
46. The government broadcasts frequently on work of departments.
47. Many talks to mothers on domestic science, child care, etc.
48. Discussion of books aids selection and stimulates readers.
49. The relationship of university and community made closer.
50. Lessens gap schooling may make between parents and children.
51. Provision of discussion topics for women's clubs.
52. New pedagogical methods, i.e., as to lectures and personality.
53. Greater knowledge of electricity spread.
54. The creation of a class of radio amateurs.
V. ON THE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
55. Wider education of farmers on agricultural methods.
56. Prevention of loss in crops by broadcasting weather reports.
57. Education of farmers on the treatment of parasites.
58. Market reports of produce permitting better sales.
59. Important telephone messages between continents.
60. Small newspapers, an experiment yet, by facsimile transmission.
61. News to newspapers by radio broadcasting.
62. News dissemination in lieu of newspapers, as in British strike.
63. Transmission of photographic likenesses, letters, etc., especially overseas where
wire is not yet applicable.
64. Quicker detection of crime and criminals, through police automobile patrols
equipped with radio.
[ 154 ]
INVENTIONS
VI. ON RELIGION
65. Discouragement, it is said, of preachers of lesser abilities.
66. The urban type of sermon disseminated to rural regions.
67. Services possible where minister cannot be supported.
68. Invalids and others unable to attend church enabled to hear religious service.
69. Churches that broadcast are said to have increased attendance.
70. Letter-writing to radio religious speakers gives new opportunity for confession
and confidence.
VII. ON INDUSTRY AND BUSINESS
71. In industry, radio sales led to decline in phonograph business.
72. Better phonograph recording and reproducing now used.
73. Lowering of cable rates followed radio telegraph development.
74. Point to point communication in areas without wires.
75. The business of the lyceum bureaus, etc. suffered greatly.
76. Some artists who broadcast demanded for personal appearance in concerts.
77. The market for the piano declined. Radio may be a factor.
78. Equipment cost of hotel and restaurant increased.
79. A new form of advertising has been created.
80. New problems of advertising ethics, as to comments on competing products.
81. An important factor in creating a market for new commodities.
82. Newspaper advertising affected.
83. Led to creation of new magazines.
84. An increase in the consumption of electricity.
85. Provision of employment for 200,000 persons.
86. Some decreased employment in phonograph and other industries.
87. Aid to power and traction companies in discovering leaks, through the assistance
of radio listeners.
88. Business of contributing industries increased.
VIII. ON OCCUPATIONS
89. Music sales and possibly song writing has declined. Studies indicate that broad-
casting is a factor.
90. A new provision for dancing instruction.
91. A new employment for singers, vaudeville artists, etc.
92. New occupations : announcer, engineer, advertising salesman.
93. Dance orchestras perhaps not increased but given prominence.
IX. ON GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
94. In government, a new regulatory function necessitated.
95. Censorship problem raised because of charges of swearing, etc.
96. Legal questions raised beginning with the right to the air.
97. New specialization in law; four air law journals existing.
98. New problem of copyright have arisen.
99. New associations created, some active in lobbying.
100. Executive pressure on legislatures, through radio appeals.
101. A democratizing agency, since political programs and speeches are designed to
reach wide varieties of persons at one time.
102. Public sentiment aroused in cases of emergencies like drought.
103. International affairs affected because of multiplication of national contacts.
104. Rumors and propaganda on nationalism have been spread.
105. Limits in broadcasting bands foster international arrangements.
106. Communication facilitated among belligerents in warfare.
107. Procedures of the nominating conventions altered somewhat.
108. Constituencies are kept in touch with nominating conventions.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
109. Political campaigners reach larger audiences.
110. The importance of the political mass meeting diminished.
111. Presidential "barn-storming" and front porch campaign changed.
112. Nature of campaign costs affected.
113. Appeal to prejudice of local group lessened.
114. Campaign speeches tend to be more logical and cogent.
115. An aid in raising campaign funds.
116. Campaign speaking by a number of party leaders lessened.
117. Campaign promises over radio said to be more binding.
118. High government officers who broadcast are said to appear to public less distant
and more familiar.
X. ON OTHER INVENTIONS
119. Development stimulated in other fields, as in military aviation.
120. The vacuum tube, a radio invention, is used in many fields, as for leveling elevators,
automobile train controls, converting electric currents, applying the photo-electric
cell, as hereinafter noted. A new science is being developed on the vacuum tube.
121. Television was stimulated by the radio.
122. Developments in use of the phonograph stimulated by radio.
123. Amplifiers for radio and talking pictures improved.
124. The teletype is reported to have been adapted to radio.
125. Geophysical prospecting aided by the radio.
126. Sterilization of milk by short waves, milk keeping fresh a week.
127. Extermination of insects by short waves, on small scale, reported.
128. Body temperature raised to destroy local or general infections.
129. The condenser with radio tubes used variously in industry for controlling thickness
of sheet material, warning of dangerous gas, etc.
130. Watches and clocks set automatically by radio.
XI. MISCELLANEOUS
131. Morning exercises encouraged a bit.
132. The noise problem of loud speakers has caused some regulation.
133. A new type of public appearance for amateurs.
134. Some women's clubs are said to find the radio a competitor.
135. Late hours have been ruled against in dormitories and homes.
136. Rumor as a mode of expression perhaps hampered in broadcasting.
137. Growth of suburbs perhaps encouraged a little.
138. Letter-writing to celebrities a widespread practice.
139. Irritation against possible excesses of advertising.
140. Development of fads of numerology and astrology encouraged.
141. Automobiles with sets have been prohibited for safety, in some places.
142. Additions to language, as "A baby broadcasting all night."
143. Aids in locating persons wanted.
144. Wider celebration of anniversaries aids nationalism.
145. Used in submarine detection.
146. Weather broadcasts used in planning family recreation.
147. Fuller enjoyment of gala events.
148. Home duties and isolation more pleasant.
149. Widens gap between the famous and the near-famous.
150. Creative outlet for youth in building sets.
The foregoing list is not summarized, as it is the detailed effects which
should be noted. Even so, the items are not as detailed as they could be
made. Each item might be broken down into other particular effects.
f 156 1
INVENTIONS
More Detailed Effects. — For instance, item number 24 of the fore-
going list, "Interest in sports increased, it is generally admitted/' when
analyzed in further detail shows fifteen further social effects, which
are as follows: The broadcasting of boxing matches and football games
tends (1) to emphasize the big matches to the neglect of the smaller and
local ones, (2) increasing even more the reputation of the star athletes.
In the case of football (3) the big coaches are glorified and (4) their
salaries become augmented. (5) The attendance at colleges specializing
in football whose football games are broadcast is increased. (6) Football
practice in the springtime is thus encouraged and (7) the recruiting
of prospective star players for college enrollment is fostered. (8) The
smaller colleges or the ones with higher scholastic requirements tend
to be differentiated as a class by contrast. (9) Boxing matches with big
gates have accentuated trends in boxing promotion, notably the com-
petition for large sums of money to the neglect of smaller matches. (10)
Broadcasting of sports has led to a greater advertising of the climate
of Florida and California, and (11) no doubt has aided a little the pro-
motion of these two regions. (12) Broadcasting of sports has led to the
developing of a special skill in announcing the movements of athletes
not at times easy to see, a skill rather highly appreciated. (13) Athletic
and social clubs with loud speakers have become popularized somewhat on
the afternoons and evenings of the matches. (14) The broadcasting of
baseball games is said to have bolstered the attendance, particularly
by recapturing the interest of former attendants. (15) Another effect it
is said has been the reduction in some cases of the number of sporting
extras of newspapers.
If the other items in the list were further analyzed, as in the case
of sports, the great influence of the radio on social change would be more
truly appreciated. Such an expansion of other items would show more
of the later derivative influences, such as the further advertisement of
the climate of southern California, a derivative influence of the broad-
casting of football games. There must be a vast number of these ramifying
influences which, though minor, no doubt affect a good deal the daily
lives of people.
Not only could the list be broken down in greater detail but it could
also be shown that the various influences are felt at different times and
in different degrees. Thus, the radio may help to destroy rural isolation
but the farmers have lagged behind the city dwellers in buying radios.
In general political campaign speeches may be more logical since the
advent of the radio but some political broadcasters have not caught up
with the times and still try oratorical effects.
Social Effects of Other Inventions. — In addition to the radio, the
effects of the automobile, of rayon, and of the X-ray were similarly studied.
[ 157 )
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
For rayon, a less significant invention, twenty-three different social effects
were listed. In the case of the X-ray, sixty-one influences were noted,
causing changes in industry, in medicine, in science, and in trade. One of
these sixty-one items, viz., the use of the X-ray in dentistry, was analyzed
into twenty different social effects, there being in addition sixty-three
technical uses of this invention in dentistry alone. In a somewhat less
extensive study of the automobile, one hundred and fifty such influences
were noted.
If the selected inventions noted in section II were analyzed as was
done in the case of the radio, rayon, and the X-ray, the result would be a
very impressive picture of the tremendous force of inventions in pro-
ducing social changes.
These selected inventions were only a few of the most important.
The hundreds of thousands of smaller inventions all have their effects
on social change, many of them slight, but immeasurable in their
total influence.
IV. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INVENTION AND SOCIETY
The descriptions in the two preceding sections give some idea of the
magnitude of the influence of the mechanical and scientific arts, but there
remain yet other influences to be noted. These do not lend themselves
very well to measurement or to factual descriptions. They can be shown
best by analysis of a variety of processes. The analyses set forth in this
section then help to round out the picture partially drawn in the pre-
ceding sections. But in addition they throw much light on the nature of
social change and on the many various ways in which it affects modern
civilization. A paragraph is given to each type of interaction or process.
An invention often has many effects spreading out like a fan. This is
the first point noted in the process, and has been observed in the pre-
ceding pages. Thus the automobile not only aids the growth of suburbs
and redistributes marketing areas, but it cuts the revenue of railroads,
and encourages the consolidating of rural schools, as was pointed out
along with many other influences in a previous paragraph.
A social change often represents the combined contributions of many
inventions. Thus the growth of suburbs is stimulated not only by the
automobile but by the electric train, the street car, the moving picture,
the telephone, the radio and the factory. A social change may thus be
said to be caused by various different inventions.
Inventional causes and social effects are intertwined in a process. For
instance, a particular effect of the automobile, the reduction in revenue
of railroads, has other causes, as the increase in pipe lines, while the
increase in pipe lines in addition decreases the consumption of coal.
And any particular factor in the increase in suburbs, such as the tele-
[ 158 1
INVENTIONS
phone, has other social effects, as on the marketing habits of housewives
which in addition is not without some effect upon certain aspects of family
life.
An invention has a series of effects following each other somewhat like
the links of a chain. Thus the mechanical stoker for engines (a) increases
the amount of coal going under a boiler, (b) which permits a more power-
ful locomotive, (c) which increases the length of trains, (d) which makes
the distance a passenger carries his baggage greater, (e) which increases
the. number of porters, (f) which contributes its bit to the status of the
Negro, and so on. Or, the automobile (a) replaces horses, (b) which
diminishes stables, (c) which in turn reduces the number of flies, (d) which
lessens somewhat the communicable diseases. Again, the can opener is
said to have aided the woman suffrage movement, through an enchain-
ment similar to that following the mechanical stoker and the automobile.
Derivative effects of this nature must be numerous and their mere volume
makes them an important part of the process. The type of effect studied
in connection with the radio should be thought of as extending out in
this derivative manner. But these derived effects become somewhat
attenuated eventually, so that it appears to be absurd to attribute a
causal force when the influence is so negligible. Though spending their
force in a sort of diffusion they are nevertheless real, particularly when
seen as the accumulated result of thousands of different inventions, in a
society where social conditions are closely intertwined. Many of the great
mass of social changes are thought to be of this indirect and diffused
nature.
Groups of similar inventions have an appreciable social influence, where
that of any particular one may be negligible. Thus the introduction of many
new machines replacing human labor may be a factor in the restriction of
immigration, yet one would hardly note that the rotary printing press
in making much of the work of feeders unnecessary was a causal factor
in the restriction of immigration.
The accumulation of the influences of the smaller inventions is a signifi-
cant part of the process. If inventions were classified according to their
complexity or to their importance, there would be only a very few that
would be classed complex or important, such as those described in section
II. An examination of the patents granted shows that the great majority
are minor ones, or represent only small improvements upon existing
inventions. The same is true also of the many inventions not patented.
Thus the inventions discussed in the preceding pages are not representa-
tive of the great mass of inventions. The typical invention is more like
one of the following group of six patents selected at random.69
69 They were the first items on the ninth pages of the Official Gazette, United States
Patent Office, April-September, 1929, vols. 381-386.
[ 159 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Door Holder. — A base plate, lever, rod coil spring, and pin comprising a stop which will
hold a door in an open or partially open position.
Typewriter. — A universal bar attachment to a typewriter facilitating its operation.
Compression Gage. — In a small cylinder a piston is operated against a spring and in
conjunction with a rod which is sealed to permit reading.
Fuse Holder. — A fiber tube adaptable to fuses of different size yet designed to prevent
longitudinal movement of the fuse.
Process for Utilizing Light Metal Scrap. — A process for forming solid bodies of metal
by pressing a mixture of scrap metal and carbon into bales, and heating with a subsequent
application of high pressure.
Grain Sprouter. — A cylindrical aerated tube with internal mechanism designed to receive
and discharge grain before and after sprouting.
The majority of inventions are merely slight improvements on some exist-
ing device. Thus the plow sulky has had 549 patents on it.60 These improve-
ments often collect around major inventions and add to the effectiveness
of their influence. But there are many small inventions that stand alone,
more or less independent of the larger ones, as for instance, the paper
clip, the key ring, the rubber band, the picture hanger. The cumulative
influence of these many thousands of small inventions and improvements
must give impetus to the flow of the stream of culture. The story is
incomplete without the account of the derivative influences previously
noted, or without consideration of the influence of smaller inventions.
There are social factors as well as mechanical ones in social change.
The data in the preceding sections give undue emphasis to the mechanical
causes of social change since the social causes are not considered. That
social factors, as truly as mechanical ones, cause social changes is seen
from a study of the introduction and development of the parole system.
The history of the parole system shows that it had its origin in lack of
work for English prisoners in Australian colonies, in prison overcrowding,
in the growth of sentiment against brutality, in the attitude that punish-
ment should not be so much the reason for imprisonment as reformation,
and by the discovery on the part of certain prison officials that early
release often brought about reformation. Further precedents for parole
were found in prisoners' aid societies, in methods of handling juvenile
delinquents through probation, and in the old practice of executive pardon
or commutation. Such are the usual accounts of the development of parole.
Parole, which thus had its legal beginning in 1847, and in its modern form
first entered the United States in New York in 1876 at the Elmira reform-
atory, and which has spread widely in the twentieth century,61 appears
from the general accounts to be an important change without mechanical
invention as a cause. No doubt, many social changes are of this nature,
particularly in such fields as art, religion, ethics and education. That
60 Cited by F. S. Chapin in Cultural Change, New York and London, 1928, p. 258, from
Simon Kuznets, Secular Movements in Production and Prices.
61 On the extent of parole systems, see Chap. XXII.
[ 160 ]
INVENTIONS
the usual history of parole omits reference to mechanical inventions does
not mean, however, that there may not have been such factors. On the
contrary, some part, however far removed, was probably played by
mechanical changes. For instance, mechanical changes led to the growth
of cities, with increase in crime, and the increasing cost of taking care of
the criminal in turn very probably encouraged the development of the
more economical parole system. And perhaps the inventions leading to
changes in family life which promoted juvenile delinquency encouraged
the reformatory idea back of the parole system. The transportation and
communication inventions also aided in the supervision of paroled
prisoners. Indeed, the whole humanitarian movement has very probably
been encouraged in part by the increase of wealth, ease and tenure of
life. This illustration of parole will serve as a possible corrective for any
undue stressing of the mechanical factor in social change.
Social factors in social changes are often derivatives, in part, from
mechanical inventions, and vice versa. Not all social changes are so rela-
tively free from mechanical factors as the changes in the prison system.
But even those changes that are very closely related to a mechanical
invention have social factors. Thus the declining birth rate is said to be a
result of contraceptive inventions, but it is clear that there are additional
social factors. Certainly the attitude of the churches is one such factor.
Another factor is the social conditions of life in cities, where the difficulties
of rearing children successfully are great. So also the birth rate is affected
by the competition of other appeals to the family budget, such as amuse-
ments, new conveniences and educational opportunities. Some of these
social factors, however, are seen to be derivatives in part from mechanical
causes. Thus the conditions of city life which make it difficult to rear
children in cities are in part the product of invention, such as the apart-
ment house. Inventional factors are likewise derivatives in part from
social changes.
The effects of invention on society are of various degrees and kinds.
Perhaps the first effect of inventions is the change in the habits of the
persons using them, as in the case of peoples who use typewriters instead
of pen and ink. When the persons whose habits are changed are numerous
then a social class is affected. Thus, there grows up a class of women
typists and stenographers, who have a place in society in relation to
other groups and classes.62 Another effect is to change certain organiza-
tions. Thus the organization of various businesses is affected by the use
of typewriters. Sometimes inventions have far removed effects on a
social institution in the sociological sense of the word. Thus, such an
institution as the family is affected by the employment of daughters,
62 On the number of women in selected occupational groups and classes, see Figures 3
and 4 in Chap. XIV.
f 161 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
wives and single women in connection with machines in offices and
factories. Further influences are those affecting ethics and codes of
conduct which usually lag behind the material changes. For instance,
at one time it was almost a moral precept that woman's place was in the
home. The appearance of women on the streets and in places of business
for many years slowly affected manners and customs closely related to
ethical codes. A final influence to be noted is that on systems of thought
or social philosophies which also has a tendency to lag behind other
influences. Thus the inventions attracting women away from the home
may be an element in a social philosophy regarding the equality of
men and women, feminism and social justice which is just beginning
to be recognized by certain elements in the population. The effects
of inventions are as various then as are the different types of social
organization.
It takes time for the social influences of inventions to become fully felt.
The quickest effect is on the habits of the persons who come in direct
contact with the invention in its use. It takes longer to influence an
organization or a social class and perhaps still longer to change social
institutions, theories of ethics, or social philosophies.
There are social inventions as well as mechanical ones, effective in social
change. An invention is a new form made up of existing elements which
may be material or non-material. Thus the telegraph was a new form
made up of a combination of existing material elements, wires, batteries,
keys, electro-magnets, etc. But not all the elements are material, for
Armistice day.
Auto tourist camp.
Australian ballot.
Basket ball.
Bonus to wage earners.
Boycott.
Chain store.
Charity organization society.
City manager plan.
Civil service system.
Clearing house.
Community chest.
Company union.
Correspondence school.
Day nursery
Direct primary.
Esperanto.
Federal Reserve system.
Four-H clubs.
Group insurance.
Holding company.
Indeterminate sentence.
Intelligence tests.
Investment trust.
Instalment selling.
Junior college.
Juvenile court.
Ku Klux Klan.
League of Nations.
Legal aid society.
Lock out.
Matrimonial bureau.
Minimum wage law.
Mother's pension.
National economic council.
One-step.
Passport.
Patents.
Psychological clinics.
Proportional representation.
Recall.
Research institute.
Rochdale cooperative.
Rotary club.
Seminar.
Social settlement.
Summer camp.
Tag day.
Visiting teacher.
Universal suffrage.
162
INVENTIONS
there is the idea of the code, which is an element in the telegraph com-
plex. Similarly a new social form is made up of existing elements usually
of a non-mechanical nature. An example is the commission form of
government for cities, made up of elements among which were the con-
cepts of the mayor, city council, cabinet, a board of directors, and an
executive committee.63 Since inventions are usually thought of as mechan-
ical, it may be well to enumerate a few social forms that may be called
social inventions. The list shown on page 162 of fifty inventions of this
type may give a better idea of what is thought of as a social invention
than would a definition in abstract terms.
V. PROBLEMS FOR POLICY
There has been presented in the three preceding sections a descrip-
tion of the major influences in recent years which science and the machine
have exerted upon society, and also an account of how the influences
operate; and in the first section a brief summary was given of some of
the more important of these general trends. The concluding section is
devoted to the presentation of certain issues which, it is thought, are
important for a society interested in the direction in which it is moving
and in the plan and control of its future. The purpose is only to set
forth the problems. No attempt is made to say what the policies regarding
them should be. These problems are of two kinds. One is that of the
encouragement of invention, and the other deals with society's relation
to the invention which it promotes.
Delays in Invention. — The first problem to be discussed concerns the
delay in developing an invention. Thus there is a long period of time
between the date of originating an invention and the time when it be-
comes ready for commerce. This interval has been measured in the case
of many of the inventions previously listed, and it has been found to
vary from two years to several hundred, the median interval being
thirty-three years. Following the date when the invention is ready for
practical use, improvements occur in most cases fairly rapidly, because
no doubt brighter chances for profits stimulate study, manufacture and
risk taking. It is this early period of gestation that appears slow, and
toward which attention should be directed. Perhaps endowment, which
has proved invaluable for research in pure sciences and in the medical
sciences, may be a solution. The industrial research laboratories may
solve it in some cases, for in these laboratories the delay between the
conception date and success date is said to be less in general than with
the individual inventor. Great prospects of financial reward to the in-
ventor also lessen these delays. Objections to such proposals are readily
at hand, however, for, in the nature of the case, aiding inventors and
63 Some of the governmental forms are summarized in Chap. XXIX.
[ 163 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
nascent inventions is a gamble. Yet where the invention concerned is new
and without substitutes, and where the need is great, the conditions argue
for success, unless there be some necessary element missing. An effective
cure for cancer has not yet been forthcoming, yet endowed research
continues.
Incentives to Invention. — Related problems center in the patent laws,
our one institutional expression for the encouragement of the inventor.
There are several ways in which it is admitted the patent laws do not
work wholly satisfactorily. For even witlj the protection of patents, the
money return to the inventor is on the average quite small and hardly
equal to the wages he might have earned during the time in which effort
was put on the invention.64
There is thus the problem of the incentive and the protection of the
inventor, which are hardly satisfactory when his reward proves slow.
The low return may be caused not by the patent laws, however, but rather
by the nature of the invention (for not all inventions are in great demand)
and its exploitation, often a difficult economic undertaking. Thus the
problem of incentive to the individual inventor is not solved by patent
laws. Another type of encouragement has been tried with some slight
success by industries in giving bonuses to employees for inventive
suggestions.65
Abuse of Patent Procedure. — Another problem for which a solution
is sought in patent legislation concerns the abuse of the monopoly control
of a patented invention. Of several such abuses, the most serious is the
denial in some cases to the public of the use of the invention. Various
remedies have been proposed; that of compulsory licensing is found in
other countries, though difficult to operate in practice.
The Death Rate of Inventions. — The patent laws do not encompass
all of the social aspects of inventing. Even after inventions are made,
patented, and demonstrated mechanically, there is a very high death rate
during their infancy. Perhaps many deserve to die; it may suffice that
one of the competitors lives. But this is not always true, as perhaps was
the case with the magnetic phonograph. A successful competitor or the
failure to obtain simplicity, durability, cheapness or some other desired
quality is the usual reason for the large proportion of inventions failing
to attain use. Very obstructive also are financial and organizational diffi-
culties which beset effectively the pathway to success of many inventions.
Problems of inventions do not center wholly around the inventor. Cooper-
ating technicians and business men share a significant part in the success-
ful launching of innovations.
64 From an unpublished study by L. J. Carr of the University of Michigan.
66 Dickinson, Z. C., Suggestions from Employees, University of Michigan, Michigan
Business Studies, vol. I, no. 3, 1927.
[ 164 ]
INVENTIONS
This problem of the high infant death rate of inventions is being solved
in part by the great growth of industrial research laboratories. Large
scale organization has swept into its train invention, along with economic
organizations. Industrial and consulting research laboratories in the
United States numbered 999 in 1927, according to a survey66 made at
that time. The growth of science and the cost of equipment no doubt
aided such a development, which may be affecting the single inventor
as the factory affected the handicraftsman. A growing proportion of
significant inventions now comes from these laboratories. The future
of many changes in civilizations will be determined by what goes on in
them. So important an agency of social change needs to be studied.
What Inventions to Be Encouraged. — The foregoing matters of policy
deal witR various aspects of inventions and inventive ability. Policies of a
different order deal with the direction which invention takes. A society
interested in where it is going will find it important to concern itself
with the question of what types of invention should be encouraged. Thus
society values very greatly medical discovery, and much money and
attention are given to it. It seems to be valuing research less in pure
science than in applied science, as is indicated in a later chapter on social
attitudes, if the attention given to pure science in published articles in
general literature be an index.67 The wishes of society are not, however,
the sole determinants of invention, any more than necessity is the mother
of invention. The elements that go to make up an invention must be
present before the synthesis can take place, no matter how much it be
desired. Earlier peoples needed and wanted medical progress as much as
modern man and put about as much time proportionately on trying to
heal and cure, but it was not until science had grown sufficiently to accu-
mulate the necessary elements of knowledge that medical progress
occurred. Nevertheless, the particular social valuations of society do
determine how much effort is put in this or that direction. Effort may be
fruitful in a measure, although there is a certain inevitability about the
grand sweep of invention, especially apparent when the possibilities of
human control are considered. Still, it is important to question the social
valuations in regard to invention, particularly as to the relative amount
of encouragement given to social invention as compared with mechanical
invention.
Indeed, instead of comparing the attention given to social and
mechanical invention, it might be well to ask first whether society wishes
to encourage mechanical invention and natural science at all. The ques-
tion appears either absurd or academic, yet the changes which many
conservatives object to are the result of invention. And even radicals
66 National Research Council, July 1927, Bulletin no. 60.
67 See Chap. VIII.
[ 165 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
have suggested "declaring a moratorium" on invention until society
catches up.
A New Environment. — Invention is creating a new material environ-
ment which is itself changing swiftly. Humanity must adjust itself to
this material culture as it changes. Invention thus causes for man prob-
lems of adjustment. It is hardly possible to discuss such problems in
detail here for there are so many of them; perhaps most of the present
day social problems are of this nature. But it is desirable to see this
problem of adaptation as a whole.
The Lag in Adaptation. — The problem of adaptation is characterized
by a time element. The inventions occur first, and only later do the
institutions of society change in conformity. Material culture and social
institutions are not independent of each other, for civilization is highly
articulated like a piece of machinery, so that a change in one part tends
to effect changes in other parts — but only after a delay. Man with habits
and society with patterns of action are slow to change to meet the new
material conditions. International relations are adjusting only slowly
to the great linking forces of communication and transportation. These
delays are costly. Thus, child labor in industry was a product of the delay
on the part of the family and society in adjusting to the factory; and
many thousands of unnecessary industrial accidents were the result of a
maladaptation until, after long delay, better adjustments were made
through the provision of safety devices and compensation plans. Tech-
nology seems to change sooner than do social institutions. Society will
hardly decide to discourage science and invention, for these have added
knowledge and have brought material welfare. And as to the difficulties
and problems they create, the solution would seem to lie not so much in
discouraging natural science as in encouraging social science.
The problem of the better adaptation of society to its large and
changing material culture and the problem of lessening the delay in this
adjustment are cardinal problems for social science. It seems very difficult
to anticipate inventions and their social effects. Yet the researches of the
preceding pages suggest that with further study some success may be
expected.
166
CHAPTER IV
THE AGENCIES OF COMMUNICATION
BY MALCOLM M. WILLEY AND STUART A. RICE
IMPRESSIVE as technological changes have been in other fields,
there is no more striking example than in communications of how
they operate to instigate social change, modifying the material
environment, creating new and perplexing problems of adjustment and
changing manners and morals. Communications may be studied either
in terms of the symbols which are transmitted or the agencies facilitating
transmission. In the present chapter the emphasis is placed upon the
latter in order to illustrate the integrative tendencies and to throw
into relief the problems which modern communication agencies have
engendered.
The agencies of transportation which increase the potential number
of our personal contacts, and the agencies for the transmission of messages
from person to person or en masse which provide individual contacts,
show many innovations as well as changes in the utilization of the agen-
cies. Particularly noteworthy is the rapidity with which new inventions
have been adopted and diffused. The automobile, the airplane, the motion
picture and the radio have all had their development since the turn of the
twentieth century. Each new communication agency bids for public favor
and its ultimate acceptance adds to the complexity of our civilization.
The surface picture is one of chaos and conflict: railroads competing
with bus lines, buses competing with street railways, newspapers con-
cerned over the broadcasting of advertisements, the motion picture
competing with radio and already alarmed at the possibilities of televi-
sion. Out of the seeming chaos, however, certain tendencies appear. There
has developed a partially integrated system whereby contacts are estab-
lished between individuals with a maximum of ease over an area of ever
increasing radius.
I. THE TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES
The function of transportation agencies is to provide physical con-
veyance for human beings or goods. They have importance for our sub-
ject because they extend the range of contacts and make possible face to
face meetings with increasing frequency and ease for individuals normally
[ 167 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
separated. In this chapter, only passenger functions will be considered,
for while the movement of goods has significance in studying social con-
tacts it is indirect and secondary.
The historical development of transportation agencies has been ade-
quately treated in other studies and will not be reviewed here. Further-
more, selection is required from among the many contemporary agencies.
Horse drawn vehicles and barge canal systems, for example, have played
and still play roles of importance, although their relative significance for
human transportation is now so slight in the United States that they are
omitted from consideration. On the other hand, steam railroads, electric
railways, highways, motor vehicles, water carriers and the airplane are
integral units in the transportation system. The growth, utilization,
interrelationship and social effects of these agencies, commercial or
private, form the subject of this section.1
The Railroads. — In 1930 and the years immediately following Ameri-
can railroads were confronted by problems involving both financial
stability and actual operation. "The plight of the railroads " was a general
catchphrase covering a variety of specific items. Many services had been
curtailed and numerous short lines abandoned. Passenger traffic, which
had long been declining, began to drop more sharply, and the per capita
mileage travelled in 1930 had receded nearly to the 1900 level. On the
financial side, railroad securities were suffering depreciation.
These evidences of the changing status of the railroads gain impor-
tance when viewed against the historical background of national develop-
ment. In the post-Civil War era it was the railroads that made possible
the continuous expansion of the western frontiers. They furthered the
vital industrial development following the Civil War. They were a factor
in the movements of the people and the determination of population
centers. In fact, the railroads were an outstanding influence in economic
and social life during the last half of the nineteenth century.
In addition to their economic effects, the railroads exerted psycho-
logical influences. As the outward world was transformed, the minds of
men were reoriented and new horizons established. Communities connected
by inferior highways were now joined by ribbons of steel over which
locomotives ran at incredible speed. An older isolation disappeared. The
railroads wove themselves into the fabric of the nation's culture. They
were the dominant agency of communication at the outset of the century.
From then on to the end of 1931, however, statistics give striking evidence
of changes which were threatening the preeminent position held by the
railroads for nearly one hundred years.
1 In the pages that follow many statements and conclusions will be based upon data
that are not included in full. The complete statistical basis for each statement and generali-
zation will usually be found in the monograph in this series, entitled Communication
Agencies and Social Life, and frequent reference to this will be made.
f 168 1
COMMUNICATION
Railroad Trackage and Traffic. — In 1900 locations and interconnec-
tions of present day railroad trackage were virtually complete. The 193,-
346 miles of first track owned by American roads in 1900 increased to a
maximum of 254,037 in 1916, and declined by 1930 to 249,052.2 Significant
as trackage figures may be in indicating "coverage," they do not serve
as a useful index of passenger traffic. More adequate are "passengers
carried" and "passenger-miles,"3 and Interstate Commerce Commission
data for all steam railways in the United States4 show that measured by
either, a maximum passenger volume was attained approximately in the
year 1920. In this year 1,269,913,000 passengers were carried 47,369,906,-
000 passenger-miles, or 444.6 miles per capita. This is more than double
the 1900 figures for passengers carried (576,831,000), passenger-miles
(16,038,076,000) and passenger-miles per capita (212.5). The sharpness
of the recent decline is evident from the fact that in 1930 only 707,987,000
passengers were transported on all roads, with a total of 26,875,642,000
passenger-miles, or 218.3 miles per capita.
During the past decade the decline in these indexes, except for one
year (1923), has been consistent. It is thus apparent that the difficulties
from which the railroads suffer have not been caused primarily, but rather
aggravated by, the current economic depression. The Interstate Com-
merce Commission has indicated the tendency toward decline, even within
years of prosperity, by a downward sloping trend line for the years 1922-
1930. It is significant that the Commission found it inadvisable to fit a
single trend line to a longer period because of the introduction into the
railroad passenger traffic situation of "a new force in recent years"
— the automobile.5 What the automobile has meant for the rail-
roads is shown more clearly in the subsequent discussion of the motor
vehicle. Its diffusion has resulted unquestionably in competition that
strikes the railroads at vital points.
2 Data from Statement 53, appearing annually in Statistics of Railways in the United
States, issued by the Interstate Commerce Commission. For a more detailed analysis of
trackage figures see the monograph, section I.
3 Figures for "passengers carried" represent a summation of the totals of each road,
and accordingly involve duplication in all cases of interroad journeys. "Passengers carried"
is less satisfactory as an index of travel than "passenger-miles" (the number of passengers
carried one mile) or "passenger-miles per capita." While a change in operating control of
given trackage might change the figures for "passengers carried," it would not influence
the data pertaining to "passenger-miles." Figures presented in Table 1 on "Miles per
Passenger per Road" are in each case less than would be corresponding figures for "average
journey per passenger," which are not available.
4 U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission: Revenue Traffic Statistics of Class I Steam
Railways in the United States, Statement no. M-220, monthly, and Statistics of Railways
in the United States, annual. Cf. the monograph, section I. Data used here exclude non-
revenue passengers, and pertain to all railroads, rather than to Class I roads only.
5 U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission, Bureau of Statistics, Graphical Supplement
to Monthly Reports, Series, 1931, no. 5. See pp. 172-180; see also Figure 1 of the monograph
for the graph referred to.
[ 169 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The influence of the automobile is apparent when passenger traffic
data are analyzed in terms of length of journey. It is customary to dis-
tinguish commutation and non-commutation traffic and the significance
of the two is obviously different. The former is characterized by greater
frequency, lesser mileage and habitual routine; the latter ordinarily
involves trips of less frequency, greater distance and some uniqueness
of occurrence. Commutation traffic is evidence of the overflow of the city
into suburban areas and reflects an extension of the radius of the cus-
tomary circle of daily life.6 During recent years when the total passenger
traffic has been declining, commutation traffic has grown. It follows that
the declines in non-commutation traffic have been even greater than the
totals indicate.
The essential commutation and non-commutation traffic data are
given in Table 1. The extent to which commutation traffic has gained
while other traffic has declined will appear from a comparison of columns
2 and 3. The gains in commutation mileage (col. 2), however, are not
primarily due to increased numbers of passengers, for the average com-
muter's journey has lengthened by nearly one mile during the same
period (col. 6). Between 1922 and 1930, commutation passenger-miles
increased by 8.8 percent, while commutation miles per passenger per road
increased 6.4 percent, or almost enough to account for the entire com-
mutation increase. At the same time, the miles per passenger per road for
TABLE 1. — REVENUE PASSENGER TRAFFIC ON CLASS I STEAM RAILROADS IN THE UNITED
STATES, CALENDAR YEARS 1922-1930,° CLASSIFIED AS COMMUTATION AND OTHER
Passenger-miles (thousands)
Passenger- miles per capita
Miles per passenger per road
Year ended
Dec. 31—
(1)
Commutation
Other
Commutation
Other
Commutation
Other
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1922
6,131,784
29,381,998
55.6
266.2
14.28
54.68
1923
6,400,779
31,607,400
57.0
281.5
14.33
58.59
1924
6,406,831
29,716,926
56.0
259.7
14.60
60.34
1925
6,592,186
29,367,767
56.7
252.8
14.76
66.90
1926
6,604,623
28,894,554
56.1
245.4
14.81
69.65
1927
6,649,871
27,006,452
55.7
226.3
14.94
70.31
1928
6,625,723
24,990,575
54.9
207.0
14.97
71.94
1929
6,898,473
24,180,151
55.7
199.3
15.07
75.22
1930
6,669,111
20,153,406
54.2
163.7
15.20
75.95
1931*
6,017,959
15,880,547
48.5
128.1
15.58
75.62
0 Data from Table IV A of U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission, Statistics Bureau, Annual Report on
Statiftict of Railways in the United States, 1930. Per capita ratios are based on population estimates shown in
Appendix A of the monograph.
6 Figures for 1931 are preliminary and subject to revision; they are from Revenue Traffic Statistics of Class
I Steam Railways in the United States, Interstate Commerce Commission, Statement no. M-220, December, 1931.
6 See Table 10 in Chap. IX.
170
COMMUNICATION
non-commutation traffic grew consistently from 54.68 to 75.95 miles
(col. 7) or 38.9 percent. The result could be explained by relative increases
in the length or number of longer journeys, or by relative decreases in
the length or number of shorter non-commutation journeys. There is
insufficient evidence to indicate which of these factors has been effective.
The conclusion is nevertheless supportable that it is primarily the short
haul passenger traffic, other than commutation, that the railroads have
been losing.
Pullman Traffic. — The preceding data give no direct evidence con-
cerning the tendencies with reference to long hauls. Pullman Company
figures indicate that losses have not occurred in long haul passenger
traffic to the same extent as in short haul traffic. Since 1922 the totals
representing passengers carried in Pullman cars have been segregated as
berth and seat passengers and it may be assumed that the former, in
general, represent longer hauls. In 1922, 19,725,000 berth passengers were
carried; in 1926, the maximum for the decade was reached, 22,658,000.
There has been a decline in each subsequent year, and in 1930 the total
berth passengers numbered 18,499,000. The total Pullman passenger
miles (berth and seat passengers) declined somewhat between 1924 and
1930, but these drops are by no means parallel to that of railroad passenger
traffic as a whole. Since 1924 the length of journey of Pullman passengers
has increased regularly each year and this has tended to offset the decline
in the total number of passengers carried. These Pullman data support
the conclusion that it is the short haul passenger traffic, other than
commutation, that the railroads have lost.7
The Problem of the Railroads. — The foregoing changes in railway
passenger traffic cannot be interpreted as reflecting a decreasing need for
transportation throughout the country. The railroads have been instru-
mental in binding the nation together and in creating an interdependence
that could scarcely have been realized without them. The interdependence
still exists and also the necessity of rapid transportation between com-
munities. The railroad unquestionably induced habits of mobility within
the population and there is no reason to assume these habits have lost
strength. The changes give evidence, rather, of the new competition from
the motor vehicle. Imperceptibly but surely the automobile, and especially
the private vehicle, encroached upon the short haul traffic of the railroads.
A shift in performance of function has occurred. The problem is now
one of integration, for both railway and motor vehicle have become
accepted parts of the contemporary social pattern. In furthering the use
7 Data of Pullman traffic compiled from Growth of Traffic on Steam Railways of the
United States, 1900-1928. Interstate Commerce Commission, Statement no. 2982 (mimeo-
graphed) ; Statistics of Railways in the United States, op, cit., Table B, annually; and Stand-
ard Statistics Company, New York, Standard Corporation Records, Individual Reports
Section. For more detailed analysis of the data see the monograph, section I.
[ 171 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of the automobile, which is admirably adapted for short journeys, there
has been created a competition between two agencies of transportation
which seriously affects the older of them. A general question involves the
advisability of stimulating a new type of transportation agency without
attempting to consider in advance the probable effects upon agencies
already firmly interwoven into the culture. The problem involves the
possibility, through foresight and control, of making necessary adjust-
ments between competing agencies more gradual, and, through planning,
of eliminating some of the disquieting consequences that inevitably follow
when shifts occur that are controlled only by opportunistic competition.
Since with the present agencies the shift has occurred, the immediate
problem is that of reconciling the roles of the two.
Further discussion of these points cannot be undertaken until the
place of the automobile in the communication system has been outlined.
The Motor Vehicle. — In 1900 there were 8,000 "horseless carriages"
in the United States, according to estimate. On January 1, 1931, the
number of motor vehicles registered was 25,814,103. It is probable
that no invention of such far reaching importance was ever diffused
with such rapidity or so quickly exerted influences that ramified
through the national culture, transforming even habits of thought
and language.
The Number of Motor Vehicles: Private Automobiles. — Some form of
motor vehicle registration was first required by all states in 1913. Between
1913 and 1931 the increase in registration in the United States was
twenty-fold.8 This phenomenal growth involved a displacement of earlier
vehicles, such as the horse carriage and the bicycle. It also involved habit -
uation to the use of the automobile of classes in the population who for-
merly owned no vehicle of private transportation. Within the space of a
few years, for vast numbers motor travel ceased to be a novelty and came
to be regarded as a necessity. At the end of 1930 there was one automobile
for every 4.63 persons in the population. The ratio varied considerably
by states : at the extremes, California contained one automobile for every
2.78 persons, Alabama one for every 9.55 persons.9
Trucks and commercial vehicles, important as they are in the total
story of the motor vehicle, are secondary as agencies of human mobility.
It is the private automobile, the bus, the taxicab that are of immediate
concern. Since 1921 the Bureau of Public Roads has each year assembled
8 Prior to 1913 data are unreliable. Even in 1931 registration practices were far from
uniform, with the result that entirely comparable data are not even now available, though
the magnitude of growth has been such that statistical shortcomings do not affect general
conclusions. Detailed registration data for all the states are given in the monograph, Tables
9. 10 and 13.
9 Facts and Figures of the Automobile Industry, National Automobile Chamber of Com-
merce, New York, 1931, p. 15. See also figures in Chap. XVIII.
[ 172 ]
COMMUNICATION
for the country the registrations of private passenger automobiles, cars
for hire, taxicabs and buses combined. The steady increase in these
registrations, until 1930, is shown in Table 2.
Although the total number of motor vehicles increased slightly be-
tween 1929 and 1930, the increase was primarily in the number of trucks,
and even these declined in 1931. When trucks are removed the losses
shown in Table 2 (cols. 2, 4 and 5) appear. It is safe to conclude that the
declines of 1930 and 1931 are attributable primarily to declines in the use
of private automobiles.
It is impossible completely to segregate the private passenger auto-
mobile from the taxicab and the bus. A special survey in 1925 by the
TABLE 2. — AGGREGATE REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER AUTOMOBILES, CARS FOR HIRE,
TAXICABS AND BUSES IN THE UNITED STATES, CALENDAR YEARS 1921-1931*
Annual
increase
Year
Numb r
Population per
(1)
(2)
vehicle6
(3)
Number
Percent
(4)
(5)
1921
9,346,195
11 6
1922
10,864,128
10.2
1,517,933
16.3
1923
13 479 608
8 3
2 615 480
24 1
1924
15,460,649
7.4
1 981 041
14 7
1925
17 496 420
6 6
2 035 771
13 2
1926
19 237 171
6 1
1 740 751
9 9
1927
20,219,224
5.9
982,053
5.1
1928
21,379,125
5.6
1,159,901
5.7
1929
23.121,589
5.3
1,742,464
8.2
1930
23,059,262
5 3
e— 62 327
e_0 3
1931
22 347 800
5 5
e 711 46<j
e gj
« U. S. Bureau of Public Roads, Table B,P.R.—Misc.—A-l. S-March 11, 1924, and annual continuations.
As adjusted these appear in Facts and Figures of the Automobile Industry, op, cit., 1931, p. 16. The National
Automobile Chamber of Commerce has kindly supplied the figure in col. 2 for 1931 and a revised figure as here
given for 1930.
6 Based upon estimates of population on July 1, each year. Population estimates used are given in
Appendix A of the monograph.
' Minus sign (— ) denotes decrease.
Bureau of Public Roads showed the number of taxicabs and cars for hire
to be nearly double the number of buses. Together these classes were but
1.2 percent of the vehicles recorded for that year in Table 2. While the
ratio may have changed somewhat in later years, it is evident that among
motor vehicles the private automobile is preeminent. With the acceptance
of the automobile the individual citizen in virtually all classes of the
population has acquired a vehicle that gives a freedom of control in
personal transportation such as never before existed. Potential mobility
is increased immeasurably and easy, swift movement over distances
[ 173 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
formerly traversed but rarely is achieved. The result has been a transfor-
mation of social habits.10
The Motor Bus: Numbers and Control. — While all evidence indicates
that the private automobile is primarily responsible for traffic losses to
steam railroads and electric lines,11 the motor bus has also assumed
importance as a competitor of both. It not merely competes but supple-
ments. In both local and interurban transportation the bus has advan-
tages that indicate for it a lasting function. In 1930 estimates show
48,250 of these vehicles in operation for revenue, and 47,150 for non-
revenue purposes.12 The non-revenue buses, in consequence of more
extensive use for school transportation, have shown the more rapid rate
of increase. Of the revenue buses, it is estimated that 13,350 were operat-
ing on city routes, and 32,150 in intercity and interstate service. Buses
in the latter services in 1930 were approximately two and one-half times
as numerous as those in local service. On the other hand, local buses
carried 1,350,000,000 revenue passengers, while intercity buses carried
but 428,000,000. Passenger-miles of city buses were slightly more than
half the passenger-miles of intercity buses in the same year. Measured
either by passengers carried or passenger-miles, the intercity buses have
shown more rapid and continuous growth. Unfortunately data are not
available to permit direct analysis of the extent to which the bus is a
competitor of urban-suburban electric lines and steam roads respectively.
Some indication of the permeation of the country by buses is shown by
comparing the 249,433 miles of first tracks operated by American steam
railroads in 1929 with the estimated 332,500 miles of intercity bus routes,
although admittedly this comparison fails to take into consideration
differences in intensity of use.
There has been steady growth since 1924 in the number of buses
operated by electric railway companies and steam railroads. In 1924,
Bus Transportation estimates, electric railway companies controlled
about 3,000 vehicles; in 1930, 11,827, or approximately four-fifths of all
10 The vertical diffusion of the automobile, explicable in terms of increased cheapness
of cars, coupled with a generally high purchasing power, has resulted in a marked decline
in the domestic use of motorcycles and sidewheel vehicles. Data on this point are included
in the monograph, Table 13.
The increased production of closed cars has contributed to the general utility of the
automobile, since it facilitates wider usage and greater comfort under varied weather
conditions. As the automobile becomes generally used, the demand for comfort assumes
importance, and increased comfort furthers the use of the automobile. In 1931, 92.9 percent
of all cars produced in the United States and Canada were of the closed type, in contrast
to 22.1 percent in 1921. Cf. the monograph, Table 14.
11 Cf. below, sections I and IV.
12 These and subsequent data pertaining to "buses are selected from annual statistical
numbers of Bus Transportation, a trade publication. Detailed tables are presented in the
monograph. In 1931 Bus Transportation changed somewhat the basis of its estimates.
The 1931 figures show slight gains over 1930. Cf. Bus Transportation, vol. 11, pp. 60-65,
1932
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city buses. Their hold on local bus operations is still increasing and the
problem of relationship between the two types of services seems well on
the way toward solution, by a process of unified corporate control com-
bined with coordination of functions.
Steam railroads operated about 375 buses in 1925 and 1,759 in 1930.
It is not improbable that they will seek in the future to acquire greater
control of the buses that now compete with them and to effect a more
efficient and economical coordination of services thereby. Public policy
with respect to this foreshadowed development may clearly point in
either of two directions: On the one hand, the integrative tendency may
be encouraged, supported by arguments found in the monopolistic char-
acter of transportation, in the vital relationship between the carriers and
the nation's industrial and financial structure and in the requirements of
public service. On the other hand, if the integrative tendency is deemed
undesirable, it would seem to imply that attention should be given to
delimiting the areas of competition between the two sets of agencies.
These questions thus intrude: To what extent should a new nation wide
agency of transportation be allowed to develop in competition with the
rail system; and on the other hand, to what extent should these two
agencies be deliberately coordinated?
Highways and Highway Utilization. — What the basic rail network is
to railroad passenger traffic, the system of American highways is to
motor vehicle travel. Highways and motor vehicles have developed in
close relationship, each effecting changes in the other and in the social
habits related thereto.13
Highway Mileage. — Although early data are unreliable, the extra-
ordinary development of highways has been apparent even to casual
observation. In 1904 the total estimated mileage of "rural roads" (i.e.,
excluding streets of municipalities) was 2,151,379, of which 153,645 miles
were surfaced; about 144 miles had "high type surface," or some form
of paving. By 1930 the estimated total had increased more than 40 per-
cent, to 3,009,066. Surfaced roads had grown by 330.5 percent, to 693,559
miles; and high type surfaced roads, almost non-existent in 1904, had
grown to 125,708 miles. Whereas surfaced roads in 1904 were 7.1 percent
of the total, in 1930 they were 23.0 percent. Of these surfaced roads, the
proportion with a high type surface increased in the same period from
0.1 percent to 18.1 percent.14
These highway extensions, demanded by the automobile, have at the
same time facilitated and stimulated its use. With a vehicle at hand over
which the user has almost complete control and with highway networks
13 See discussion of social effects of automobiles in Chaps. Ill, IX and XVIII.
14 Data from United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Public Roads,
Table D-l, 1929 (unpublished), based on figures compiled by the Bureau as reported to
it by state authorities. C/. the monograph, Table 15.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
on which it may be freely run, a multiplication of social contacts over
wider ranges of territory is all but inevitable. For rural populations the
importance is even greater, for enhancement of mobility is accompanied
by a decrease in physical isolation as well.
Automobiles and Highway Engineering. — The use of the automobile
has introduced entirely new highway engineering problems. Old roadways
that served adequately for horse drawn vehicles at once became anti-
quated. With high-powered cars and high speeds roads must be straight-
ened, curves lengthened, vision increased, shoulders carefully planned,
embankments equipped with guards, grade crossings protected and sur-
faces increased in trueness and durability. These are but typical require-
ments confronting the engineers who are concerned with the swift and
certain flow of traffic.15
The extension and improvement of highways brought increased
vehicle speeds. Connecticut was first to limit automobile highway speeds
by law (15 miles an hour, 1901). By 1923 all states had such statutes and
analysis indicates a steady increase in the maximum speed permitted by
law. In 1905 the median average for those states where regulations were
enacted was 25 miles an hour; in 1919 this had increased to 30; in 1925,
to 35; and in 1929 the median average had reached 40.16 The automobile
has been an important contributory influence in increasing the tempo of
modern life.
The Problem of Centralized Control. — From colonial days onward roads
were for the most part a responsibility of local governments and an
important reason for the latter's existence. The automobile has made
state wide and national highway planning essential. Roads must serve
the integrated needs of wide areas throughout which standard construc-
tion practices and traffic rules must be formulated and introduced. It is
an accepted principle that the poorest unit in any roadway determines
the capacity of the entire road. Purely local planning and construction
accordingly become anachronistic.
In 1900 only seven states had even rudimentary highway administra-
tion; by 1917, highway commissions in some form were found in all.17
Nevertheless local administration, unrelated to the needs of larger areas,
still remains in many respects a troublesome social lag. Those who con-
16 Cf. A. G. Bruce and R. D. Brown, "The Trend of Highway Design," Public Roads,
vol. 8, pp. 7-14, 1927.
16 Compiled by John P. Horlacher from analysis of speed legislation in the 48 states.
Employment of the arithmetic mean instead of the median does not change the results.
In some states a specific maximum speed is not designated, but drivers are held to a rate
that is customarily phrased as "reasonable and proper." These "reasonable and proper"
states are not included in the figures given above. When included, by assuming that they
fall at the upper end of the distribution of maximum speeds, no differences in the median
resulted. For details see the monograph, Table 16.
17 See Chaps. XXVII and XXV.
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demn centralizing tendencies in American government cannot avoid the
obligation to reconcile a decentralizing policy with the advantages of
integration. In the case of highways the smooth and direct flow of traffic
seems to require further centralization of administrative responsibility.
If so, the fact should be accepted and impediments in the form of legalistic
survivals of local autonomy should be removed as quickly as possible.
The logical alternatives are to contend that human mobility itself is an
undesirable phenomenon or that the advantages of efficiency would be
offset by other disadvantages that are not apparent.18
Automobile Utilization. — The rapid growth of automobile ownership
and the national permeation of the highway system, already traced,
provided unprecedented motives and opportunities for mobility. Although
travel possibilities hitherto existed in the rail and water systems their
use was subject to certain restrictions that did not pertain to the auto-
mobile. In no inconsiderable degree the rapid popular acceptance of the
new vehicle centered in the fact that it gave to the owner a control over
his movements that the older agencies denied. Close at hand and ready
for instant use, it carried its owner from door to destination by routes he
himself selected, and on schedules of his own making; baggage incon-
veniences were minimized and perhaps most important of all, the auto-
mobile made possible the movement of an entire family at costs that were
relatively small. Convenience augmented utility and accelerated adop-
tion of the vehicle.
A distinction may be drawn between necessity and pleasure travel.
The automobile has many uses in connection with the former and it
fosters the latter. The short trip, the vacation tour, the after dinner ride,
the Sunday picnic are forms of pleasure travel stimulated by the motor
car. In addition, there are many uses for the automobile in the day's
routine. Imperceptibly, car ownership has created an "automobile
psychology"; the automobile has become a dominant influence in
the life of the individual and he, in a real sense, has become dependent
upon it.
The annual passenger automobile mileage in the country can only be
stated as an estimate. Such an estimate involves three factors: average
annual car mileage, average number of passengers per car, and the propor-
tion of all passenger cars registered in any year that are actually in use.
For the first of these, the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce
uses 7,000 miles. Balancing rural and urban differences, the American
Electric Railway Association assumes an average load of 2.2 passengers
per automobile. By calculation to allow for scrappage and non-use the
private passenger cars in operation in 1930 may be stated as 21,554,500.
The total passenger miles for 1930, obtained as the product of the three
18 Cf. the monograph, section IV.
\ 177 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
factors, is approximately 332,000,000,000. 19 No attempt is made here to
obtain a comparable figure for earlier years.
What this figure signifies is more clearly indicated when it is stated
that the per capita passenger mileage in passenger automobiles in 1930
was 2,697 miles. In the same year the per capita mileage on all steam
railroads was 218.3, a decline of 227.8 from the peak of 446.1 in 1919.
Comparison of these figures lends additional support to the conclusion
that it is from the competition of the private automobile that the pas-
senger business of the railroads has suffered most. While the comparison
is admittedly unfair (since the automobile is used in numerous ways for
which the railroad offered no corresponding service) there is here some
ground for belief that the lost short haul passenger traffic of the rail
carriers has been assumed by the private passenger automobile. Some
may have been shifted to commercial buses, but if every passenger carried
by bus in 1930 had been carried by the railroads instead, it would have
increased the per capita passenger mileage figure of the latter by only
57.5 miles, and brought this to but slightly more than three-fifths of the
1919 figure.20
Although these figures indicate the mobility of the population, in
themselves they give no clue to the characteristics of the travel that is
involved. Data pertaining to highway travel are fragmentary, and are
derived chiefly from separate highway surveys, the most important of
which, as far as non-urban traffic is concerned, have been conducted by
the Bureau of Public Roads in conjunction with state highway depart-
ments.21 The data of these studies, except for the recent western survey,
are grouped, in general, according to the same plan. Four major criteria
of classification are employed, each with two dichotomous categories:
Registration, "local" or "foreign"; Type of Trip, "touring" or "non-
touring"; Type of Usage, "business" or "non-business"; and Situs of
Ownership, "farm" or "non-farm."22
The data indicate that while the average number of passengers per car
varies from state to state, it is consistently higher in some categories
than others. Foreign (out of state) cars carry more passengers than local,
19 The method here employed is that of Hawley S. Simpson, Research Engineer, Ameri-
can Street Railway Association. For a detailed explanation of the various estimates involved
in this figure, see section V of the monograph.
20 Cf. the monograph, section V.
21 U. S. Bureau of Public Roads: Report of a Survey of Transportation on the State High-
way System of Connecticut, 1926; Report of a Survey of Transportation on the State Highway
System of Ohio, 1927; Report of a Survey of Transportation on the State Highways of New
Hampshire, 1927; Report of a Survey of Transportation on the State Highways of Vermont,
1927; Report of a Survey of Transportation on the State Highways of Pennsylvania, 1928;
Report of a Survey of Traffic on the Federal-Aid Highway Systems of Eleven Western States,
1932. These surveys must be interpreted with caution, since they are not all for the same
year or periods, and each covers a specified highway system.
22 For definitions of these categories see the monograph, Table 17.
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touring cars more than non-touring cars, non-business cars more than
business cars and non-farm cars more than farm cars. In general, those
cars travelling farthest and probably departing most from routine, have
the more passengers. Presumably cars on city streets would show fewer
passengers in general than were found in these surveys on open highways.
In three of the surveys (New Hampshire, Vermont, Ohio) data on the
length of trip was obtained. The cars in which a higher ratio of passengers
prevails, as indicated in the preceding paragraph, have consistently
higher trip mileage. Considering the trip as the distance from point of
departure to destination, trip mileages of foreign cars averaged from four
to nine times that of local cars and the trip mileages of touring cars were
from five and one-half to fifteen times those of non-touring cars. Business
cars averaged consistently less than non-business cars in trip length. In
the study of the eleven western states made in 1930 the daily mileage of
passenger cars was recorded. In all of the states, the average travel of
foreign cars exceeded that of local cars, although differences between them
were not as great as the trip figures of cars in the surveys made in eastern
states. Differences in the areas of the states, western as compared with
eastern, presumably account for this fact. The western study also showed
that city owned passenger cars tend to travel longer distances (as meas-
ured by average daily mileage) than village owned cars, and these latter in
turn exceed the daily average mileage of farm owned vehicles.
The frequency of out of state cars on the highways leads naturally
to the tendency to think of the automobile in terms of extended mileage.
"Long" and "short" are relative terms and long trips of one generation
may be short to another. The automobile has done much to revise con-
ceptions of distance, but at the same time it has probably led to miscon-
ceptions concerning range of mobility. In the five states covered by the
surveys cited, from one-third to one-half of all automobiles were on trips
of less than 20 miles, from one-half to two-thirds were on trips of less
than 50 miles, and distances of 100 miles were not reached by from
three-fifths to nine-tenths of the machines. In Vermont, 42 percent of
cars bearing Vermont plates were travelling less than ten miles. Were
city data included the average trip mileage would presumably be much
reduced.23 In the western states, where distances in general are greater,
"travel of less than 100 miles a day clearly predominates." Considering
the states as a group, about 38 percent of all local cars were traveling
between 20 and 70 miles a day, and about 50 percent, less than 100 miles.
Some Implications. — There are important implications to all this, both
practical and theoretical. Practically, the increased mobility made possible
by widespread automobile ownership creates problems associated with
23 Detailed analysis on these points, with statistical tabulations based on the surveys
cited, is contained in the monograph, section V.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
chronic migration. The "gypsy family" has become familiar to every
social welfare organization. Ease of movement induces a readiness to
shift residence on various provocations. "Transient families" complicate
the work of the school systems. While these problems do not concern the
vast majority of the population, the numbers that are involved cannot be
overlooked. Theoretically, automobile ownership raises the question of
the influence of the concomitant mobility upon the standardization of
social habits. With increasing contacts with individuals at distant points
localisms may be lessened. It is clear from the foregoing data that longer
trips are now made more frequently than ever before by a larger propor-
tion of the population. But at the same time there is also a strong pre-
sumption from the data that contacts within local areas have also
multiplied and out of proportion to those at a distance. Herein lies the
possibility of an intensification of localisms. The problem is how to
appraise the effects of these opposing tendencies.
Electric Railways. — The preeminence of the steam railroads at the
outset of the century had its counterpart in the electric lines, as far as
local, suburban and short interurban transportation was concerned. By
providing a type of service not afforded by the steam roads they facilitated
the expansion of cities, met the needs of local necessity travel, and also
afforded a cheap and convenient means of pleasure travel, a function that
has all but disappeared. Like the railroads, they have undergone changes
attributable to the rapid rise of the automobile.
The diffusion of the automobile has not affected all types of electric
lines alike. Changes occurring in necessity travel on electric railways are
related to community size. In the largest cities, where distances are great
and street traffic dense, elevated, subway and other rapid transit systems
have developed and their patronage has increased. In large cities, too,
where traffic makes the driving of private cars more difficult, street
surface lines have tended to maintain their position. It is conspicuously
in smaller communities that electric lines have lost patrons to the private
automobile and will probably continue to do so. The effects have also been
marked on interurban lines.24
Electric Railway Traffic. — The maximum traffic for electric lines as a
whole was attained in or about 1922, whether the measure be number of
passengers, revenue trips per inhabitant, or revenue trips per urban
inhabitant. By 1927 it was clear that a decline had set in and estimates of
the American Electric Railway Association for subsequent years indicate
its continuation.25 In 1922, 15,331,000,000 passengers rode in electric
24 It is difficult to establish these points directly, but a detailed analysis in section II
of the monograph leaves little doubt concerning them.
26 Cf. U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Electrical Industries: Electric Railways
and Affiliated Bus Lines, 1927, and corresponding quinquennial reports for earlier years.
Intercensus estimates furnished by American Electric Railway Association.
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vehicles and about 40 millions more in buses operated by electric railway
companies. The aggregate number of passengers per capita was 139.3.
In 1927, 14,901,000,000 passengers travelled in electric cars and 991,000,-
000 in affiliated buses; the aggregate passengers per capita had dropped
to 133.2. For 1930, the Association estimates the respective numbers as
13,197,000,000 and 1,308,000,000; the per capita figure had shrunk to
117.8. Further declines were evident in 1931.
It is clear that traffic has been lost by the electric railway companies
and that in addition passengers who formerly rode in electric cars are now
riding in buses. Since electric railway companies have been increasingly
acquiring bus subsidiaries26 it is unlikely that their traffic losses have
appeared as gains by buses not affiliated with the industry and whose
traffic is not included in the foregoing figures. On the other hand, increase
in private automobile registrations, plus the fact that urban traffic surveys
indicate increasing congestion by private automobiles at central points,
make it a safe conclusion that private passenger motor vehicles have been
the outstanding cause of electric line traffic losses.
The figures of electric railway traffic losses clearly indicate a shift in
social habits. In seeking an explanation, the element of personal control
is once more apparent. With the private automobile there are no schedules,
the car is at the door and the convenience is great. With ownership of
an automobile comes a readiness to use it wherever it is possible and
convenient.
Integrative Tendencies. — The attempts of street railway companies to
meet changing conditions have resulted in extensive coordination of bus
and electric vehicle services, and, in some cities, taxicab operations also.
Within the industry is a clear recognition that the public seeks transporta-
tion, and to the extent that it resorts to commercial operators, what
vehicles are employed is secondary. The trend is toward coordination of
the local transportation systems. It is possible that their traffic has nearly
reached the point of stabilization; street congestion beyond a certain
point even in small communities makes the operation of the private
automobile increasingly undesirable and difficult. Already there is
evidence of more rigorous restriction on the use and parking of private
cars in urban areas. Within the disease that has afflicted the electric lines
may be contained the germ of their recovery.
Water Transportation. — Waterways once served as main arteries of
domestic communication, antedating the railroads, while sailing vessels
mitigated national isolation. In recent years passenger transportation by
water has been affected by one or another of four sets of conditions, with
modifications that have differed accordingly. (1) Where forced to compete
directly with railroads or automobiles for necessity traffic water carriers
26 See above, pp. 174-175.
[ 181 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
have rapidly lost ground. Thus new bridges or tunnels have eliminated
many ferry services. (2) Where water transit has a natural monopoly, as
from the mainland to an island, traffic has kept pace with the normal
social and economic development of the populations concerned. Air
transportation, in some situations of this type, is becoming a competitive
threat. (3) Water vehicles may supplement the employment of other
transportation agencies and reflect the latter's growth. Ferry traffic
across Lake Michigan, for example, has increased with automobile travel.
(4) Where water carriers can offer a pleasure inducement, either by itself
or in conjunction with necessity travel, they may maintain themselves
in the face of competition.
Changes in water borne passenger traffic reflect variations in one or
more of these type situations, singly or combined. Data concerning total
traffic, however, cannot be analyzed with respect to these situations.
Moreover, totals supplied by the War Department27 do not segregate
passengers by type of travel, with the result that a ferry passenger from
New York to Jersey City cannot be discriminated from a transoceanic
voyager. The total water borne passengers thus reported numbered
286,199,000 in 1920, 546,573,000 in 1929 and 388,937,000 in 1930. The
much larger volume of traffic on the Atlantic Coast doubled between
these years, while Pacific Coast traffic showed little variation. Port
traffic is far greater than river traffic, but the latter showed greater
increase between the two years. However, it is obvious that changes in
highway routes and ferry services, construction of bridges and vehicular
tunnels, all producing diversions and rerouting of land vehicles, would
affect the totals greatly; and the extreme irregularity of the figures for
years intervening between 1920 and 1929 seems largely attributable to
such factors. While the general picture is one of growth, the unevenness
of the total series and the heterogeneity of its constituent parts, makes any
confident consideration of trend virtually impossible.28
When the data of total water traffic are compared with foreign water
borne traffic, thereby eliminating ferry services, Great Lakes, coastwise
and other short haul trips, it is readily seen that the bulk of the traffic
discussed in the preceding paragraph is in the short haul service. In 1929
less than one-half of one percent of the traffic reported by the War
Department was reflected in the compilations of the United States Ship-
ping Board, which records all foreign traffic and non-contiguous and
intercoastal domestic traffic. Shipping Board data may be said to reflect
27 U. S. Department of War, "Commercial Statistics: Water-Borne Commerce of the
United States for Calendar Year 1929," Ibid. 1930, in Annual Report of the Chief of Engi-
neers, 1930, 1931. The 1931 decline in water borne traffic was reflected in all divisions and
types, with one inconsequential exception — interior rivers not tributary to the ocean or
Gulf of Mexico.
28 Cf. the monograph, Table 26, and passim.
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COMMUNICATION
the long haul traffic.29 These data show an annual increase in the number
of passengers to foreign countries between the fiscal years 1925 and 1930.
They likewise show a consistent increase in intercoastal travel except in
1926.
A survey of water borne passenger agencies suggests that the func-
tions of the water carriers have become far more sharply delimited than
have the functions of the land carriers. When natural monopoly disap-
pears, the water carrier will normally lose traffic. Where water carriers
can supplement new competitors, they may show increase in traffic, and
where they can offer a "pleasure" inducement, they will presumably
maintain their position. It may also be expected that the stimulation to
travel for travel's sake, engendered by the automobile, will be reflected
in some increases in travel of this type on the water. This is to be con-
sidered in the section on touring and travel.
Air Transportation.30— Since the World War the airplane has become
a recognized passenger carrier whose services must be considered in
relation to other transportation agencies, especially the railroad. Civil
aeronautics (which excludes military and naval operations) is of two
types: (1) scheduled air transportation; (2) miscellaneous flying which
covers a variety of services and does not involve fixed schedules and
defined routes. While forms of the second developed somewhat earlier,
the first is obviously of greater significance in the development of commu-
nication. Comparable data concerning a variety of operations and services
related to civil aeronautics have been compiled by the United States
Department of Commerce for each year, 1926 to 1931.31
In 1926 scheduled air service was at its beginning. The eighteen air-
way services in operation that year over 3,715 miles of passenger route
had grown in 1931 to 126 services, covering 45,704 miles. The increase in
route mileage was more than ten-fold and included foreign as well as
domestic extensions. The daily average miles flown increased more than
ten-fold, from less than 12,000 to 129,825. More significant than facilities
is growth in utilization as shown by the number of passengers. Only 5,782
in 1926, these numbered 417,505 in 1930 and 522,345 in 1931.
It must be kept in mind that these figures are inconsiderable when
compared with the total rail passengers in the same years. The rapidity
of growth in air travel is significant for what it may forecast. In 1930 the
average air passenger per scheduled air service, travelled 248.4 miles, in
29 U. S. Shipping Board, Bureau of Research, Report B. R., No. 157 (annual) ; sum-
marized in the monograph, Table 27.
30 See also Chap. III.
31 These data have been assembled by the Aeronautics Branch and are published in
Air Commerce Bulletin, vol. 3, pp. 558-561, 1932. They form the basis of the discussion in
this section, and of the summary compilations which are presented in Tables 31, 32 and
33 of the monograph. The development of air mail service will be discussed in section II
of this chapter.
[ 183 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
contrast to 75.9 miles per passenger per road for non-commutation riders
on steam railroads. It has already been shown that railroad traffic losses
have been proportionately more heavy in short hauls, where competition
with motor vehicles has been most severe. If air travel continues to grow,
as seems likely, it will increasingly become competitive with the railroads
for the long haul business.
Passengers carried in miscellaneous flying in 1930 still greatly exceeded
the number carried on scheduled routes although the increase from the
previous year was slight. Moreover, the excess would appear less, or dis-
appear, if passenger miles in both services could be compared. Miscella-
neous flying has attracted many passengers because of the novelty, and
short flights predominate. As established routes become more general the
novelty appeal will be lessened or will be satisfied on scheduled trips.
Two major factors influence public attitudes toward travel by air:
cost and safety. The average passenger fare per air line mile decreased
from $0.12 a mile in 1926 to $0.083 in 1930 and $0.0674 in 1931. While
costs have dropped, rail or bus travel is still cheaper for the mass of the
population, although speed may be a factor in making air travel more
economical for some.
The safety factor is best measured in terms of passenger-miles flown
per fatal accident. For scheduled transport planes in 1930 (the first year
for which data are available) the figure was 4,322,802; in 1931 it was
4,770,876. No comparable figure for miscellaneous flights exists. If the
gauge of safety used is "miles flown per fatal accident" (which does not
distinguish passengers and operators) Department of Commerce data
indicate a steady improvement in safety on scheduled air lines but little
if any improvement in miscellaneous flying. In 1930, the last year for
which figures are available, one railroad passenger was killed for every
311,647,390 passenger-miles travelled, which, when compared with the
scheduled flight figure for 1930, indicates that the risk of fatal accident
that year was about 72 times greater on the air routes than on the rail-
roads. In view of the more favorable 1931 air fatality figures, the dis-
parity has presumably been lessened. Data for a similar comparison
between air passenger safety and motor vehicle passenger safety are
unavailable, but would probably appear less unfavorable to the air carriers.
During the past five years there has been continuous expansion and
development of the airways network. The number of landing fields has
grown; many intermediate landing fields for emergency use have been
established; the lighting of routes has been extended widely; and various
safety aids, such as radio communication stations, weather reporting
stations, etc. have been developed. The expansion of aviation is further
indicated by the steady increase in the number of states with regulatory
aeronautical legislation.
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COMMUNICATION
The growth of commercial aviation brings administrative and legisla-
tive problems,32 and as routes become international introduces new health
problems. The speed of air vehicles so reduces the time of journeys that
the period of incubation for certain diseases, exceeded by the elapsed time
of travel by land or water, is not exceeded by the time of an air journey.
Forced landings, also, might make difficult the control of diseases with
existing organization for health protection.33
The Integration of Transportation Agencies. — The preceding pages
sketch in broad outline the changes that have been occurring to specific
transportation agencies within the present century. Although discussed
separately the various agencies in reality are closely interwoven, and
factors that influence one agency ramify to them all. The appearance of
each new agency modifies older ones. Relationships develop that may be
said to constitute a moving equilibrium.
The coming of the automobile dominates the three decades since 1900.
The steam railways and the electric lines especially have felt the impact
of its influences. With a widespread car ownership the individual naturally
turns to his own vehicle when the need for travel arises. Furthermore, in
his pleasure travel involving longer trips as at vacation times, he resorts
to his own car. With it comes a freedom that was denied him when there
was dependence upon commercial carriers operating on fixed schedules.
A widespread and significant shift in social habits is correlated with the
growth in numbers of motor cars. The full effect of the newest agency, the
airplane, is not yet apparent. If and when private ownership of air
vehicles develops, it is certain that adjustments in human habits will be
required that are as far reaching as those necessitated by the automobile.
These adjustments in the past have been two-fold: (1) commercial
organizations controlling one or another of the agencies compete with
each other — as rail lines with bus companies; (2) the commercial carriers
together confront the private individual operating his own vehicle. Such
have been the conflicts in the past and presumably they will take these
forms in the future. If a quarter century of change can be simply charac-
terized on the basis of the data here presented, it would be by saying that
the passing years have given the private individual greater control over
his freedom of movement and lessened his dependence upon commercial
transportation.
It does not follow that commercial transportation agencies have lost
their functions as passenger carriers. Each possesses unique advantages;
but readjustment to changing conditions has been slow in the case of the
older systems. Integration of services is a clear requirement of survival
or growth, and tendencies in this direction, already apparent, may be
32 See Chap. XXVIII.
33 This was discussed at the annual conference of the British Medical Association in
1931. C/. London Telegraph. July 24, 1931.
[ 185 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
expected to continue. Railroads are joining their services with air trans-
port; electric lines are developing bus subsidiaries or auxiliary services;
motor vehicles take the place of abandoned rail lines; trolley companies
operate taxicabs; railways provide passenger automobiles at their
terminals. In some instances such coordination involves merging of
functions under one corporate control ; in others separate corporate groups
agree upon coordination. These points are of no concern to the individual
citizen except as questions of rate and service intrude, for his need is
transportation service, by rail, water, bus or air, as occasion may demand.
It is not unlikely that two types of systems will eventually emerge : local
transportation systems and long distance transportation systems. The
functions may overlap in part but the integration of the various agencies
within each will probably exceed that of today. Whether this tendency
toward integration and coordination should be consciously furthered, and
how, if at all, it should be controlled are problems again suggested.
Touring and Travel. — The American people have become remarkably
mobile. The automobile has fostered a widespread travel psychology.
Spontaneity and universality distinguish contemporary from earlier
travel. The popular expression "hop in" has more than surface meaning;
it typifies a state of mind. Travel for necessity and travel for the sake of
travel (pleasure travel) alike are involved in the enhanced mobility. The
trip of a few hours' duration (the drive) and the longer pleasure trip
(touring) have become accepted parts of modern life. It is the general
extension of the touring habit that is particularly impressive.34
Data on touring are fragmentary but the extent to which it has grown
is reflected by numerous indexes. Immigration authorities record automo-
biles entering Canada. In 1919, 59,105 permits for stays of 2 to 30 days
were issued; in 1930 the number was 1,297,030, and each intervening year
showed gain. One-day permits increased consistently from 1,515,035 in
1925 to 4,110,000 in 193035 for reasons which will be variously interpreted.
The Dominion Bureau of Statistics estimates the average number of
passengers per car as slightly over three. There has also been a consistent
increase in numbers of cars classified "for touring purposes" entering the
United States from Canada. There were 100,810 in 1922, and 746,924 in
1930. The number of tourists crossing the border in either direction by
rail or steamer, as estimated by the Bureau, in recent years remains
relatively unchanged.
Checks on traffic at bridges and at state boundaries have also indicated
rapid increase in touring by automobile. In recording annually all visitors
to Yellowstone National Park, the National Park Service distinguishes
34 See also Chap. XVIII.
36 Canada, Department of Trade and Commerce, Dominion Bureau of Statistics.
"The Tourist Trade in Canada," Annual (mimeographed). See also the monograph,
Table 20.
F 186 1
COMMUNICATION
rail and motor arrivals and the states in which the traffic originated.
From 1922 until 1930 there was an annual increase in the number of
visitors. In the earlier year 33.7 percent entered by rail; in 1930, only 11.4
percent. When the visitors are classified by state of origin, the earlier
conclusion is substantiated that rails have suffered most in short haul
traffic. For while the ratio of automobile arrivals has increased sub-
stantially for every geographic division, the increase has been relatively
more rapid from divisions in closer proximity to the park. Conversely, rail
traffic to the park has tended to maintain itself in direct proportion to the
distance of travel.36
A survey of highway traffic in eleven western states in 1930 also
showed extensive use of the highways of given states by passenger vehicles
from other states. The check on the home registration of these foreign
cars gives added evidence of a widespread touring habit. In Arizona, to
illustrate, 19.9 percent of all foreign cars observed on the highways during
the survey came from states east of the Mississippi, and 16.4 percent were
from the northeastern states. In other states, the percentage of all foreign
cars coming from east of the Mississippi also was high: California, 25.2
percent; Colorado, 20.4 percent; Idaho, 9.3 percent; Nebraska, 20.1
percent; Nevada, 10.5 per cent; New Mexico, 15.0; Oregon, 5.1 percent;
Utah, 13.8 percent; Washington, 6.9 percent; and Wyoming, 20.0
percent.37
New Travel Institutions. — The increase in automobile travel has
stimulated communities to attempt the attraction of visitors through
advertising campaigns. The tourist "business'* has swelled. This is
reflected in the growth of the tourist camp and lodging. These developed
largely without plan and the types have shifted with changing needs. To
attract tourists, free camping grounds seem first to have been offered,
often by municipalities. Minor conveniences were sometimes included.
If privately operated, profits came through the sale of incidental services
or goods. Pay camping grounds with more elaborate facilities developed
naturally and the municipal type of camping ground began to lose
popularity. Next came cabin and cottage camps which sprang up with
surprising rapidity. These vary in comfort, accommodations and price,
and, in some cases, purport to offer the equivalent of first class hotel
facilities.38 The popularity of the roadside camp is indicative of its
adaptation to the new type of travel. The traveller's costs are low, traffic
congestion is avoided, frequently there are attractive rural settings and
above all the patron feels none of the embarrassment that he thinks might
36 The analysis leading to these conclusions is presented in detail in the monograph,
section VI.
37 U. S. Bureau of Public Roads, Report of a Survey of Traffic on the Federal- Aid Highway
Systems of Eleven Western States, 1932, p. 40.
38 Cf. American Automobile Association, Recreational Directory, Washington, 1930.
[ 187 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
come with entrance into an urban hotel in the clothes of the road. The
camps are definitely a part of the "tourist psychology."
The "tourist home" or lodging, like the camp, has become popular;
their number is undetermined. So ingrained in popular habits has the
use of the automobile become that the appearance of the camp, the
private tourist lodging and the refreshment stand lining the roadsides of
the nation evinces but little comment. However, the growth of these new
institutions has led to agitation in some states for their rigid inspection
and control partly on health grounds but also for moral reasons.
In the development of "tourist accommodations" is an example of the
ramifying influences of the motor vehicle, for through them the automobile
has touched the hotel industry, a business which it might have been
expected to benefit. Although it is by no means certain that the hotel has
suffered declines in patronage because of these new institutions, there is
considerable feeling within the hotel industry that it has. Between 1920
and 1929 the number of hotels in the country increased; the number of
rooms increased still more rapidly. The ratio of guests to total population
sagged, however, and was restored to the 1920 level only in 1929.39 This
comparison is not altogether fair since it is probable that potential hotel
patronage does not increase with the same rapidity as the population at
large. However, even gross patronage has not shown a clear upward trend
and declines between 1929 and 1932 have probably been sharp.
Hotel men assert that extensive modifications of the hotel have
resulted from the increase in travel by women which has been induced by
the automobile. Private bath facilities have become general, menus have
been modified and room furnishings transformed. More adequate hotel
facilities have been extended into smaller communities where patrons
arrive increasingly by motor vehicle.40
Mass Travel: Conventions. — Travel thus far considered has been
essentially individual. It is sometimes a mass phenomenon as on a railroad
excursion; or many may travel independently to an agreed destination.
The convention is typical of the latter and is peculiarly associated with
life in the United States. It has both social and business functions.
Tabulations from World Convention Dates show that the total numbers of
conventions in this country in 1920, 1925 and 1930 were, respectively,
4,192, 6,291 and 8,501. The geographical distribution of conventions in
1930 was uneven; New York and Ohio led the states, with Nevada,
Delaware and New Mexico last. The last decade (1920-1930) has seen
the greatest increase in regional and interstate conventions (as contrasted
with international, national, state and local) and as a factor influencing
39 "Final Report of the Engineering-Economic Foundation's Survey of Over-building,"
Hotel Management, Section One, vol. 16, pp. 195-200, 1929. Cf. U. S. Bureau of the Census,
Census of Hotels, 1930. Relevant data are summarized in the monograph, Table 23.
40 The hotel is discussed in detail in the monograph, section VI.
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COMMUNICATION
integration and social organization this may be of considerable
significance. In general, larger cities seem to be gaining favor as
convention centers, which may reflect the need for adequate hotel
facilities and the extent to which the convention has assumed social
importance.41
The significance of the convention lies in its possibilities for an inter-
change of ideas among those of similar interests. To the extent that it
draws people from distant points it is a factor contributing to cultural
levelling; to the extent that it draws narrow audiences it may intensify
regionalisms, localisms and class or professional characteristics.
Overseas Travel. — Pleasure travel by rail and water, whether at home
or abroad, is not a new phenomenon. The habit of domestic touring by
automobile, however, seems partly responsible for extending the interest
in foreign journeys especially among those to whom travel of any kind
was formerly a wide departure from routine. It is not possible to segregate
pleasure and business motives in overseas passenger traffic but if account
is taken only of departures of citizens from the country there is a presump-
tion that pleasure travel is chiefly involved.
Foreign travel was sharply curtailed by the war. The post-war
recovery is striking particularly because of the type of traveller it involves.
The rise of "tourist" and "tourist third" classes on ocean vessels has
made it possible for large numbers of Americans of the middle and lower
middle economic groups to visit other continents, notably Europe. In
1930, 32.8 percent of all citizens leaving north Atlantic ports were booked
in these new classes; 10.9 percent travelled second class; cabin passengers
constituted 33.4 percent; and the remainder (22.9 percent) occupied first
class accommodations.42 Figures for early years are not available but it
is certain that there has been decided loss in popularity of second class,
which has consequently been abandoned for the newer type of quarters
on many transatlantic lines.
Departures of American citizens for overseas destinations are mainly
from Atlantic ports: In 1920 these numbered 137,601 of a total of 167,602
departures. Pacific port departures, next most numerous, were only
14,201. In 1930 Atlantic departures had increased almost consistently to
404,390 and Pacific port departures had risen to 22,829. Both showed
declines in 1931, the former to 392,909 and the latter to 20,878. The total
overseas departures of citizens in 1930 numbered 445,48543 and 429,219
in 1931. The itineraries of passengers are not known, but in 1930
immediate destinations, as recorded by the Bureau of Immigration,
41 Detailed statistical analysis of the distribution of conventions is given in the
monograph, section VI.
42 Supplied from unpublished data by U. S. Bureau of Immigration.
43 Compiled from U. S. Bureau of Immigration, Annual Report of the Commissioner
General of Immigration, 1930.
[ 189 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
showed 58.8 percent as European and Mediterranean. Next came the
West Indies (28.0 percent).
This European drift of American travellers is probably not without
influence upon American attitudes and ideas. The effects, however, must
be felt unevenly in the country, since passport data, supplied by the
Department of State, show wide variation among the geographic divisions
in the number of passports issued. In 1929, one passport was issued for
every 248 persons in the middle Atlantic states, while in the east south
central states there was one for every 5,067 persons. For continental
United States in 1929 one passport was issued for every 623 people. In
general, the relative number of passports secured in any section is in-
versely proportionate to the distance from the Atlantic and Pacific
seaboards with the former somewhat more highly weighted.44
The Influence of Travel. — The influence upon the population of in-
creased mobility, as it involves either domestic or foreign travel, is
problematical. The common assumption is that multiplication of con-
tacts at a distance has a "broadening" effect. Yet it is open to question
whether, mile for mile, or hour for hour, automobile touring or other
domestic travel results in exchanges of attitudes and ideas with other
persons equivalent in importance to exchanges effected in the shorter
trips within a more narrowly circumscribed local community. Data on
highway utilization lead to the tentative conclusion that local contacts
have increased more rapidly than those at a distance. This may result in
an intensification of localisms outweighing the modifications of attitude
resulting from less frequent contacts at distant points. The facts thus far
introduced do not permit an answer, although they raise a problem
involving the location of balance between the contacts that the agencies
of communication bring about.
Nor is it possible to evaluate confidently the effects upon the traveller,
or upon those whom he meets, of overseas travel. It is possible that
Americans abroad engender impressions among Europeans quite different
from those engendered among Americans by European travellers in this
country. Americans at home may encounter European immigrants and
upper class travellers but they do not usually encounter the European
middle class. American travellers abroad are more and more drawn from
the middle class which may consequently serve increasingly as the basis
of popular European opinions of Americans. The problem is thus far
more subtle than is sometimes assumed.
One certainty remains. The tempo of life has accelerated in conse-
quence of the application of machinery to man's tasks. The newer agen-
cies of communication have transformed popular habits and conceptions
of speed and distance. With the increase in speed at which man may
44 Detailed analysis is included in the monograph, section VII.
COMMUNICATION
travel has come the sense of lessened distance. The continent has been
spanned between dawn and dusk, and by other agencies personal contacts
between the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards are established within inter-
vals measured in minutes.
It is to some of these other agencies for furthering contact, but not
involving presence face to face, that attention is now turned.
II. THE AGENCIES OF POINT TO POINT COMMUNICATION
Section I traced the development and integration of the vast trans-
portation network whereby communities are joined, the physical mobility
of the population is enhanced and social contacts are multiplied. In section
II mediating agencies for the interchange of messages from person to
person or from point to point will be considered. Their multiplication
enables individuals to maintain contacts within constantly widening
areas. Of primary importance are the postal service, the telegraph, cable
and wireless and the telephone.
The Postal Service. — For over a century the postal service has been
expanding its functions. Both its structure and its utilization have grown
enormously, as indicated roughly by an increase in per capita gross
revenue from $0.17 in 1846 to $5.29 in 1931.45
Growth of the Postal Structure. — Before the development of city carrier
service and the establishment of rural free delivery, the number of post
offices in the country constituted the best measure of postal "coverage.'*
From 1789 until 1901, when the maximum of 76,945 was reached, there
was an almost regular annual increase in their number. Between 1901
and 1930 Presidential offices46 continued to increase, multiplying nearly
fourfold. The total of Presidential offices on July 1, 1931, was 15,495,
which is less than in 1930. The total number of offices of all classes, how-
ever, declined regularly; there were 49,063 in the latter year. This decrease
involves no curtailment of service but reflects the discontinuance of
many Fourth Class offices whose functions have been assumed by rural
46 U. S. Post Office Department, Annual Report of the Postmaster General, for fiscal
year ended June 30, 1930, Table 58, pp. 150-151. All data in the present section are for
fiscal years ending June 30. For 1931 the per capita gross revenue fell to $5.29, the lowest
figure since 1925. Cf., Annual Report of the Postmaster General, op. cit., for 1931, Table 63,
p. 153.
48 Post offices are distinguished by class according to annual gross revenues, and reas-
signments are made as of July 1, each year. Postmasters of all offices with gross revenues
exceeding $1,500 (Classes I, II and III) are appointed by the President with the consent
of the Senate. Fourth Class postmasters are appointed by the Postmaster General. The
data cited above are from compilations made with the assistance of A. W. Watts, Cost
Ascertainment Superintendent, United States Post Office Department. Discrepancies found
in published reports have been adjusted on the basis of original data and preponderance
of evidence. For detailed tabulation of Post Offices, 1900-1930 inclusive, by classes, see
the monograph, Table 34.
[ 191 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
carriers. Their elimination indicates the degree to which postal services
have actually been brought to the doors of a continuously larger portion
of the population.
Expansion of postal facilities found early expression in the inaugura-
tion of city delivery service (1863) and this was an important step in
expediting the transmission of the written message. As the service grew,
an increasingly smaller proportion of the population needed to go to the
post office for the receipt of mail; the post office came to the citizen. In
1865 there was delivery service in 45 cities; in 1900, in 796; in 1920, in
2,086; and in 1931, in 3,098.47 This growth is clearly much faster than
urbanization in the United States.
Rural free delivery (1896) represents another aspect of the progressive
permeation of the homes of the nation by the postal structure. It was,
moreover, a wedge that contributed to the breakdown of rural isolation,
still later furthered by highway improvements, motor vehicles, telephones
and radio.48 In 1931, 6,890,687 families had rural carrier service.
The maximum number of rural routes was reached in 1926 (45,318)
but neither the total number of routes nor the number of carriers is a
desirable index of the service because of the recent tendency to combine
and lengthen routes, fostered by the use of motor vehicles. Total mileage,
which increased regularly from 29,000 miles in 1900 to 1,354,759 in 1931,
serves better to show the growth. The average length of route has grown
slowly from 26.51 miles in 1920 to 31.94 in 1931, which is not as much as
might be anticipated in an age of automobiles.49
Utilization of Postal Facilities. — So varied are the functions and so
numerous the types of material handled, that a complete description of
the utilization of postal facilities would be difficult and laborious. Postal
matter in any of the four established classes involves mediated contact,
but attention will be limited here to the more personal transmissions
represented by first class mail matter. This includes letters, sealed parcels,
governmental postal cards and private mailing (post) cards.50 Regularly
since 1926, and earlier in 1923 and 1908, the Post Office Department has
conducted systematic sample checks on the mail matter handled, whereby
it is able to estimate with considerable accuracy the annual volume and
the detailed character of the postal business. Because data for a suffi-
47 Details of the growth are shown in the monograph, Table 35.
48 Testimony on this point is contained in letters written to the Postmaster General,
published in U. S. Post Office Department, Annual Report of the Postmaster General, 1897.
49 Data pertaining to rural free and city delivery service from "Postal Statistics of
the United States— from 1789 to 1930, by Fiscal Years," Post Office Department, Third
Assistant Postmaster General, 1931 (printed tabular sheet) ; and Annual Report of the
Postmaster General, op. tit. Cf. the monograph, section X.
60 Some materials, such as franked matter, are handled as first class mail, but since
they do not produce revenue they are not included in the totals which follow, except as
indicated.
[ 192 1
COMMUNICATION
ciently long period of time are wanting, it is not possible to speak confi-
dently of trends.51
In general, the data reveal increasing frequency of contacts between
individuals. Both total and per capita volume of first class mail showed
substantial increases between 1908 and 1930. In the former year 7,103,-
000,000 pieces were handled, or 80.5 per capita; in the latter, 16,901,000,-
000 pieces, or 137.9 per capita. In 1931 the number of pieces handled
declined to 15,912,000,000 or 128.7 per capita. This undoubtedly reflects
an increase in use of the mails for business purposes. The slight decline
in 1930 from 1929 volume and the much sharper decline in 1931 indicate,
presumably, the sensitivity of the postal business to economic conditions.
The average individual in 1930 received 41.1 local letters and 83. d
non-local letters and sealed packages.52 In 1923 he received but 26.7 local
letters. An increasing frequency of local contacts by mail is clear. It is
impossible to show the changes in number of non-local letters and sealed
packages in the same period, but from 1927 onward their number per
capita has remained practically constant. When all of the available data
are examined together in detail there is reason to conclude that the growth
of local mail has been proportionately somewhat greater than the growth
of non-local.53 Further, analysis shows that in general between 1907 and
1923 the smaller American communities, irrespective of growth in popula-
tion (holding size constant), increased their ratio of local first class mail
within the total, by weight, at a relatively more rapid rate than did the
larger communities. One explanation of this result may be found in the
expansion of rural deliveries, which may have augmented disproportion-
ately the volume of local mail in the smaller communities. These data,
however, should be considered in conjunction with the earlier hypothesis
that automobile ownership, while extending contacts, has simultaneously
61 In the following discussion data for 1908 from U. S. Post Office Department, Cost
of Transporting and Handling the Several Classes of Mail Matter and of Conducting the
Registry, Money Order, and Special Delivery Services, 1910. Data for 1923 from Cost of
Handling Mail Matter, Sen. Doc. 162, 68th Cong., 2d Sess., and U. S. Post Office Depart-
ment, Appendix to Report on the Cost of Handling the Several Classes of Mail Matter and of
Conducting the Special Services for the Fiscal Year 1923 (photolithograph), 1924. Data for
1926-1931, inclusive, from U. S. Post Office Department: Cost Ascertainment Report (annual)
and Appendix to Cost Ascertainment Report (photolithograph — annual). For fuller treat-
ment, and tabular material, see the monograph, section X.
62 In the Cost Ascertainment Report, op. cit.f the number of sealed packages is combined
with "non-local letters." In 1931 the number of local letters per capita dropped to 31.5,
whereas non-local letters and sealed packages per capita numbered 84.2. The general
decline in 1931 in the volume of postal business as measured by number of pieces of first
class mail handled reflects the general economic conditions. The analysis of the decline
in terms of local and non-local first class mail makes clear that local mail is more sensitive
than non-local. While data are not available to establish the point, it is probable that the
drop in local first class mail is indicative of a decreasing use of local mail for business
purposes, such as the sending of bills, etc.
63 For detailed analysis see the monograph, section X. It is possible to obtain
a comparison between local and non-local mail for the isolated year 1907.
[ 193 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
increased, at a more rapid rate, the frequency of contacts within the local
area. Both the automobile and the mail, while exerting a "broadening"
influence, may also serve to fortify local characteristics and local patterns
of attitude or opinion which differ from those of other communities.
Figures of average haul indicate a moderate extension of the range of
non-local postal contacts. The average distance travelled per piece (non-
local domestic) increased from 507 miles in 1908 to 534 miles in 1927.
The subsequent irregular decrease to 525 miles in 1930 and 520 in 1931
may be attributed to the "suburban trend" which makes for a larger
number of non-local short hauls. Interesting differences in average haul
are found when groups of cities and classes of offices are compared. These
cannot be entirely explained on geographical grounds. They may reflect
differences in breadth of cultural boundaries and may thus serve as
partial indexes of insularity.64
While postal facilities establish contacts between rural and non-rural
areas, they are employed less by the rural than the general population.
In 1930 of all first class domestic mail, only 9.2 percent, it is estimated,
was delivered by rural carriers.55 For every piece of first class mail he
sends, the farmer now receives three pieces, in contrast to 1.7 pieces in
1908. This reflects the increase in business mail directed to him for which
he offers no originating counterpart. Congressional material (franked)
has a relative volume in mail received on rural routes about double that
in the mail of the general population.56
Expediting the Mail. — No single figure summarizes the acceleration
of the mails since 1900, although the interval between posting and delivery
has been reduced. Postal tubes, mechanical cancelling devices, sorting of
larger proportions in transit, increased frequency of collection and
delivery and the use of motor vehicles have tended to expedite the mail
service. Special delivery transactions have multiplied nearly twenty-fold
in the period and typify a public demand for speed.
The inauguration of air mail service (1918) adds evidence of the
attempt to accelerate transmission. On long hauls this has greatly reduced
rail time. The development of air mail is closely correlated with the
improvements in flying facilities, including lighting of routes, discussed
in a previous section. Although dependability does not yet equal railway
postal service there has been a general increase in volume of air mail,
somewhat irregular because of changes in rates. When the five-cent rate
was established in 1929 the volume tripled, and in 1931 the number of
pieces of domestic origin was 91,893,934, of which 87,777,241 were for
domestic destinations. Domestic air mail routes grew from 4,713 miles in
64 For fuller discussion, with illustrative data, see the monograph, section X.
66 From estimate included in Annual Report of the Postmaster General, op. cit., 1930,
Table 32, pp. 124-127.
66 Cf. the monograph, section X.
[ 194 1
COMMUNICATION
1927 to 23,488 in 1931, and there have also been rapid extensions into
foreign countries.57
Two conspicuous trends stand out from a survey of postal data:
1. There has been a constant increase in accessibility to convenient
mail facilities for a continuously increasing proportion of the population.
2. There has been a gain in the regularity, speed and frequency with
which mail matter moves through the postal machinery from writer to
person addressed.
Telegraph, Cable and Wireless Services. — At the outset of the
century the postal and telegraph systems were the established agencies
in point to point communication. In 1902 there were 237,990 miles of
telegraph pole lines, which in 1927 had increased to only 256,809 miles,
although the single miles of wire had grown more rapidly. The capacity
of the wires had multiplied many times following the invention of
mechanical devices for sending and receiving dots and dashes at high
speed, of printing machines, and the development of multiplex systems so
that a single wire could carry several messages simultaneously. Speed of
transmission was approximately trebled. Reliability of service has been
enhanced by the extension of land cables. Today interruptions of services
are rare, regardless of weather conditions.
A corresponding growth in extent, reliability and speed of cable
service is found. The first north Atlantic cable was laid in 1868. By 1900
there were 13, and by 1931, 21. The south Atlantic network had grown,
drawing South America telegraphically closer to this country. The Pacific
was first spanned in 1902, completing a cable circle around the world.
Technical improvements have increased the carrying capacity of all of
these lines. Since 1902 the United States has never been without cable
contacts with the other continents; clearly the cable has been important
in establishing national interdependency.68
Utilization of Telegraph and Cable. — Telegraph and cable statistics
employ the "message " as the unit of utilization. Data from the quinquen-
67 For a detailed analysis of the increase in air mail services, see the monograph,
Table 38. Air mail data supplied by office of Second Assistant Postmaster General, Division
of Air Mail Service. The number of pieces of air mail, foreign and domestic, was first
incorporated into the Cost Ascertainment Report in 1931. Prior to that date estimates of
the number of pieces of air mail carried were obtained by multiplying the total poundage
reported by various mail carrying lines by 40 (the estimated number of letters per pound).
It was clear that this resulted in an excessive figure, because the total poundage was
reported by individual lines, and thus included duplications, since a single piece might
figure in the totals of several lines. Using the earlier method the total pieces carried in 1931
would be about 343,000,000 which far exceeds the 91,893,934 recorded in the Cost Ascer-
tainment Report. Cf. United States Post Office Department, Cost Ascertainment Report,
1931, pp. 8, 12.
68 Help in the preparation of this section was given by John F. Skirrow, Vice President
and Consulting Engineer of the Postal Telegraph-Cable Co. See also the monograph,
section XI.
f 195 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
nial Census of Electrical Industries indicate that utilization of the
telegraphic network has not kept pace with increase in facilities. Land
messages in 1902 numbered 90,835,000, or 1.14 per capita; in 1927, the
most recent census year, 215,595,000, or 1.81 per capita. Ocean cable
messages increased from 820,000 in 1902 to 13,987,000 in 1927, a per
capita increase from 0.01 to 0.12. Nor has the utilization of the land wire
system increased as rapidly as that of the post office. In 1907 there were
71.9 pieces of first class mail for every land wire message and in 1927,
76.3 pieces. There is, however, reason to believe that the average length
of telegraph messages has increased.
The telegraph has both commercial and personal uses and its utiliza-
tion is probably more stable in connection with the former. The relative
infrequency of the telegram, as compared with the receipt of a letter, or
— as will be shown later — a telephone conversation, accounts for the
importance attached to it. A crisis psychology has been involved in its use
and its receipt. As telegraphic communication is popularized through
stimulation of social and greeting messages and through reduced rate
services, such as night letters, the attitudes may change, although an
element of urgency and emphasis will presumably still be inherent.59
The relatively rapid growth of cable messages implies an extension of
international contacts. As the cable facilities are used for dissemination
of news, they become important agencies in the development of public
opinion, and its rapid crystallization.
Wireless Communication. — Since the first decade of the century wire-
less communication has expanded in importance, as measured by utiliza-
tion. Its flexibility facilitates communication where it would otherwise be
difficult or impossible. It has strikingly demonstrated its value in com-
munication at sea. It has annihilated the isolation of the transoceanic
voyage, and the modern liner has its daily newspaper and its broker's
office; social and business life may continue much as on shore. Under
conditions where it has no competition, the wireless has produced its pro-
foundest effects; where it competes with wire systems of communication,
like the submarine cable, the chief effect claimed is a reduction in rates.
Growth in wireless messages transmitted by commercial companies of
the United States follows: 1907, 154,617; 1912, 285,091; 1917, 420,000;
1922, 2,365,109; 1927, 3,777,538.60 Clearly the new agency is rapidly
establishing itself and the eventual integration of its services with existing
69 Data pertaining to utilization of telegraph, cable and wire agencies from U. S. Bureau
of the Census, Census of Electrical Industries: Telegraphs, quinquennially, 1902-1927,
inclusive. For detailed analysis and limitations of the data, see the monograph, section XI,
especially Table 39.
60 Census of Electrical Industries: Telegraphs, op. cit., 1927, pp. 24-26. The figure for
1917 is an estimate, made necessary because of government operation of the wireless
systems during part of that year, for which period no record of commercial messages trans-
mitted was kept.
F 196 1
COMMUNICATION
land and oceanic cable facilities may be expected. The significance of
wireless in point to point communication has been somewhat over-
shadowed in the public mind by the phenomenal rise of radio broadcasting.
The entire range of radio frequencies from 10 to 60,000 kilocycles has been
divided into "bands" of which only a relatively small number are devoted
to broadcasting. Above and below the broadcasting bands are those
utilized for non-broadcasting services. These services have multiplied
strikingly and forecast tremendous possibilities for future communication.
Some hint of the extent of wireless is found in the number of stations,
as compiled for fiscal years by the Radio Division of the Department of
Commerce.61 Commercial transoceanic stations about doubled between
1928 (85) and 1930 (165), incidentally establishing direct communication
between the United States and a number of countries where it was
formerly wanting or dependent upon cables controlled in other countries.
Potentially, wireless has brought a greater freedom of communication
between the peoples of the world than ever before, and international con-
tact accordingly assumes new forms.
Commercial ship to shore stations have also multiplied with results
already mentioned. Stations employed in the navigation of commercial
airplanes numbered 215 on June 30, 1930; there were only 8 such stations
in 1928. Wireless and aviation are obviously associated. The number of
amateur stations in the country has grown irregularly from 1,228 in 1913
to 18,994 in 1930 (fiscal years). Among amateurs informal telegraphic
conversations all over the world are of daily occurrence.
Miscellaneous Telegraphing Services. — In addition to commercial
transmission of messages, telegraph facilities have been adapted to various
specialized needs. The telegraph has long been important in railroad
dispatching, and the radio is now used to establish contacts with trains en
route; ticker services are indispensable to the world of finance; prospectors
and explorers utilize portable wireless sets; fire and police departments
employ telegraphic signal systems and are now using wireless to maintain
contact between mobile units and headquarters and to broadcast alarms;
fire and burglar alarms employ wire circuits, and telegraphically operated
clocks are widely used. These are only a few of many additional uses of
telegraph and wireless.
The Telephone. — With the rapid expansion of economic activity in the
present century, a corresponding expansion in utilization of telegraph
facilities would normally have been expected. Yet it was shown in the
preceding section that between 1902 and 1927 the per capita use of the
telegraph increased by only 60 percent, which appears to be a relatively
61 Included in the monograph, Table 40. See also section XI for a more extended
discussion of the allocation of radio bands. A chart of the radio spectrum is included in
the Third Annual Report of the U. S. Federal Radio Commission, 1929.
[ 197 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
small growth for so dynamic a period until it is remembered that the
telephone had its development during these same years.
The Telephonic Network. — No single measure is adequate to describe
the growth of the telephone network, for numbers of instruments (indica-
tive of physical facilities), interconnection of instruments (indicative of
efficiency in terms of potential contacts) and mechanical improvements
(affecting ease, speed and certainty of contacts) must all be considered.62
Growth or improvement under any of these three headings will induce
wider use of the agency.
In 1900 there were 1,355,911 telephones in the country.63 On
December 31, 1930, there were 20,201,576. The total increased in every
intervening year and the number per thousand population gained
regularly by five year periods from 17.6 in 1900 to 163.6 in 1930. In 1931
the total declined to 19,690,187. Basic in telephonic intercourse is the
Bell System, composed of the American Telephone and Telegraph Com-
pany and associated regional companies. In addition, the Bell System has
working agreements for the mutual interchange of traffic with inde-
pendently operated companies. Outside of this Bell System and these
"Bell connected" lines is a constantly diminishing number of purely
local telephone systems, for the most part rural lines.
Not only has the number of telephones included in the Bell System
steadily increased until recently (835,911 in 1900; 15,682,059 in 1930;
15,389,994 in 1931) ; but the proportion of these within the nation's total
has increased concomitantly. The same statements may be made of the
network composed of the aggregated Bell and Bell connected telephones.
Independent, non-Bell connected telephones increased to a maximum of
2,279,578 in 1907. One-third of the telephone subscribers in that year were
on these unconnected lines, and potential telephonic communication was
to that extent limited. In 1931, only 93,849 subscribers, or 0.5 percent of
the total, could not be reached by any subscriber within the Bell and Bell
connected network. Thus people at nearly 20,000,000 stations, widely
diffused among the homes and business places of the nation, are brought
within "speaking distance" of each other.
Accompanying the ramification of the system and the absorption of
non-connecting telephones have been important technical improvements
that increased the range of telephonic conversation and improved the
audibility. In 1915 it became possible to talk from coast to coast. Exten-
sions of services, in terms of number of instruments, have proceeded
62 See discussion of special mechanical inventions in Chap. III.
63 Unless otherwise stated, data are from Annual Report of the Directors of the American
Telephone and Telegraph Company, to the Stockholders, 1900-1930, inclusive; and Telephone
and Telegraph Statistics of the World, issued annually by the American Telephone and Tele-
graph Co. For a detailed discussion of telephone statistics, see the monograph,
section XII, especially Table 41.
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COMMUNICATION
faster than the use of these facilities, in terms of number of calls.64 The
estimated aggregate number of telephone calls in 1902 was 5,071,000,000,
or 6.7 calls per telephone per day.65 In 1927, the aggregate number of
originating calls was estimated as 29,196,000,000, or 5.4 calls per phone
per day. For the Bell System the decline in originating calls per telephone
per day has been from 7.0 in 1902 to 4.1 in 1927. Further, the growth in
per capita calls per person per year, which increased from 64 in 1902 to
246 in 1930, has been at a rate somewhat slower than the growth in the
number of telephones per thousand population.
These figures testify to the permeation of the nation by the new
agency, and indicate its acceptance, not as a luxury or a desirable con-
venience, but as a necessity. The disadvantages of not having the tele-
phone close at hand are so great that it is installed even where the total
number of calls may be relatively few. The telephone directory has
assumed importance as a city directory, and is useful in establishing
contact. To be without a telephone or a telephone listing is to suffer a
curious social isolation in a telephonic age.
Range and Speed of Telephonic Contact. — The role of the telephone in
extending the range of contacts is indicated in the growth of the toll
traffic. In 1902 the Census of Electrical Industries estimated the number
of toll calls as 121,000,000, or 2.4 percent of all telephonic messages.
While the total number of toll calls increased at each census, the ratio of
these to the total telephone calls moved irregularly until 1917, since which
year it has increased constantly. There were 1,087,000,000 toll messages
in 1927, or 3.7 percent of all calls. Bell System local exchange messages
doubled between 1917 and 1929 but toll messages trebled.
While there are difficulties in interpreting the data pertaining to
average length of haul of toll messages,66 a sample of selected "long lines "
of the American Telephone and Telegraph Company indicate a steady
increase from 142.9 miles in 1922 to 176.2 miles in 1930. This is believed
to be typical of the trend in toll hauls. Part of the increase reflects
technical improvements which permit greater efficiency in longer trans-
mission. Another factor may have been reductions in rates. Both are
suggested by the fact that the longer calls have shown the more rapid
growth in number.
The increasing efficiency of telephone service in extending the range
of contacts is also shown by the decrease in the time required for establish-
ing connections and the growth in the percentage of all calls completed.67
64 Data pertaining to utilization from Census of Electrical Industries: Telephones, op. cit.
1902-1927, quinquennially. For cautions in using these data, see note to Table 42 of the
monograph.
66 For basis of estimate, see the monograph, Table 42.
66 For discussion of these see the monograph, section XII.
67 For data see the monograph, Table 43.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In 1930, 82 percent of all toll calls were completed while the subscriber
remained at his instrument. An increase in speed is also claimed for the
dial telephone, which in 1930 constituted one-third of all Bell System
installations.
The availability of an instrument easy to operate, the costs of which
are within general reach and the efficiency of which has constantly
improved, engenders a "telephone habit." There is rapid adaptation to
the needs of daily life and a device that permits quick contact within a
narrower or wider area soon serves to induce more frequent contacts
within the same areas. The telephone has done this. The area of its useful-
ness is, moreover, widening, for the telephone network now extends to
foreign countries. In 1931 less than 2,000,000 of the world's 35,350,000
telephones could not be reached by any subscriber in this country. The
telephone, like the agencies hitherto discussed, is serving to bind
together by a communication system the peoples of the world.
Overlapping Telegraphic and Telephonic Services. — It is becoming
progressively more difficult to draw lines between the various wire and
wireless services; the distinctions tend to become corporate rather than
functional. This is illustrated in the "teletypewriter" and "printer"
services now being offered by telegraph and telephone companies, in
competition. Telegraph messages may be carried by wires simultaneously
carrying telephonic conversations; and telephone conversations may be
transmitted by wireless, just as dots and dashes are so transmitted. Both
telephone and telegraph companies offer "facsimile transmission" serv-
ice, and this is now possible by wireless across the oceans. While cor-
porate entities may persist it is clear that there has been integration of
functions. As far as the patron is concerned, point to point communica-
tion is the end sought; he selects from various possibilities the particular
agency that at any time best suits the purpose at hand.
The Network of Point to Point Communication Agencies. — The brief
survey in section II has shown the existence of a number of agencies
facilitating point to point communication, and all contributing to the
ease, speed and volume of social contacts. The factor of control stressed
in discussing the transportation agencies is once more apparent in con-
sidering the relation of the agencies to each other. It is this that gives to
the telephone its preeminent place in point to point communication just
as freedom of control underlies the rapid development of the automobile.
The postal service, like the railroad, operates on a fixed schedule. This
restriction does not apply to the telegram, but neither letter nor wire
message permits a free interchange of thought as in direct conversation.
As with the transportation agencies, there are circumstances under
which each point to point agency has special advantages. The telephone
does not as yet record messages. Here is the value of the mail and tele-
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COMMUNICATION
gram. Where speed is necessary, post office delivery cannot compete with
wire transmission, though telegraph may compete with telephone. The
telegraph has the special advantage that once filed, the sender may dis-
miss his message from his mind knowing that it will be expeditiously
delivered. In short, wire and wireless services now permeate the country
and connect it with other countries. A vast system establishes potential
contacts between the individual citizens. The patron wants communica-
tion service and the media are at hand to supply his demands and his
needs. While there are duplications of facilities arising through multiplic-
ity of corporate ownership, these, with few exceptions, do not now react
against the efficiency of transmission. The important point is that on the
spur of the moment the individual can set in motion the instrumentalities
through which a message will be carried to a designated individual
without interruption. Such ease of contact, through various channels, is
a unique phenomenon of the present century.
What is the place of the individual within this network that in a sense
converges upon him? What is the frequency with which he utilizes the
several agencies at his disposal? The following tabulation shows the fre-
quency rates, or average intervals between utilizations of each agency,
as calculated for the years 1907 and 1927:
1907
1927
Years
Months
Days
Years
Months
Days
Local letters
18
9
Local telephone calls . . .
3
IK
Non-local letters
6
4
Toll telephone calls....
4
15
1
10
Telegrams
11
2
6
23
Cablegrams
14
3
14
8
4
2
These figures indicate the average interval for the average person
between incoming messages. For example, in 1907 the average person in
this country received a local letter every 18 days; in 1927, every 9 days.
At the rate of 1907, the average interval between the receipt of telegrams
was 11 months and 2 days; in 1927, 6 months and 23 days.68
The telephone is clearly the most obtrusive of agencies, and local calls
are an accepted part of daily routine, as is the delivery of the mail. Al-
though non-local letters still outnumber local letters in the mail box of
the hypothetical average citizen, the local letters are increasing in fre-
quency at a more rapid rate than non-local. In general, the tabulation
68 For further discussion of methods involved in deriving this tabulation, see the
monograph, footnote to Table 44.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
i that, except for toll telephone calls, contacts within narrower
Caries that may be designated as the local area have been increasing
a more rapid rate than contacts that are non-local. And the single
exception may not in reality be such, since it involves a tremendous
traffic in suburban telephone messages which may be of local significance.
The data suggest three observations:
1. Point to point communication has multiplied greatly, and over
widening areas.
2. Local contacts are more numerous than non-local contacts, because
of the wide diffusion and habitual use of the telephone, which instrument
dominates the field.
3. Relatively, local contacts have increased more rapidly than non-
local contacts.
The data of sections I and II suggest a hypothesis: The intensifica-
tion of local contacts may act to preserve and even enhance local patterns
of habit, attitude and behavior, and serve as an inhibitor of the process
of cultural levelling which is so commonly assumed as an outstanding
and unopposed tendency of contemporary life. This is only a hypothesis.
Yet, if it is assumed that localisms are strengthened by multiplication
of contacts between individuals, it is a hypothesis meriting further
and careful study. It is, of course, possible that even though local contacts
are relatively more frequent, their intensity is counterbalanced by even
more powerful non-local contacts, especially as established through the
agencies of mass impression which are to be discussed later in this chapter.
It may also be that closer local contacts merely serve to provide channels
through which standardizing influences diffuse within local areas. Finally,
while the result of modern communication may be to strengthen certain
aspects of localism, it may simultaneously serve to break down the con-
trol on individual conduct hitherto exerted by the relatively closely knit
primary group. This control may be lessened through travel and enhanced
mobility and also by the fact that patterns of delinquency, for example,
can spread easily through the workings of the agencies of mass impression.
The data summarized in the chapter do not without further elaboration
warrant a balancing of the various possibilities, but they do raise interest-
ing questions.
The effects upon the individual of this elaboration of facilities can
only be suggested. Of the total contacts of a given day, an increasing
proportion apparently tend toward brevity and impersonality, induced
by the use of mediating devices. Within this part of the aggregate are
lost those values that inhere in more intimate, leisurely and protracted
personal discussion. The ultimate effects are matters for conjecture.
There is, too, an increase in the tempo of life. Mechanical aids make it
possible to communicate more extensively and to transact without per-
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sonal contact many of the interchanges which formerly necessitated it.
The time thus saved may be utilized in further contacts. Devices that
permit speed in turn induce it, and the agencies here discussed have
contributed their part toward this result. Finally, the individual is
increasingly accessible to a variety of instrumentalities which maintain
him in actual or potential contact with any of his fellows, and them with
him. Personal isolation — inaccessibility to the demands of others for
access to one's attention — is increasingly rare, and, when desired, increas-
ingly difficult to achieve.
III. THE AGENCIES OF MASS IMPRESSION
The agencies of mass impression, as distinguished from the mediating
agencies that facilitate contacts of specific individuals, are those through
which large numbers of individuals may simultaneously receive the same
communications and be correspondingly influenced. The aggregate that
constitutes public opinion is derived from many sources, informal and
formal. Private conversation, casual discussions, recreational groups,
semi-formal gatherings, ceremonials, holiday celebrations, public speeches,
the schools and the church, all play their part in creating and reinforcing
collective attitudes. In this chapter, however, attention will be limited
to three dominant agencies — the newspaper and periodical, the motion
picture, and the radio.
The Newspaper and Periodical. — At the turn of the century the rail-
road and electric lines were outstanding in the transportation field, the
postal service and the telegraph were dominating in point to point com-
munication and the newspaper and periodical were preeminent agencies
of mass impression.69
Newspapers: Numbers and Circulation. — The terms "newspaper" and
"periodical" embrace publications of various types and purposes; it is
accordingly difficult to summarize changes affecting either in any single
set of figures. Aggregate circulation might adequately show changes but
even as late as 1915 circulation figures are untrustworthy. Only during
the past decade are such figures dependable, and then not for all publica-
tions. Figures indicating numbers of publications are more trustworthy
for the earlier years and will be utilized here.70
The largest number of daily newspapers was in 1917 (2,514); there
had been a slightly irregular growth from 2,200 in 1900. Then came a
tendency toward consolidation and the trend is now in the direction of
69 The distinction here is between newspapers and all non-newspaper periodicals, includ-
ing magazines, which will be hereafter referred to as periodicals.
70 Data on numbers of publications compiled by Rose Epstein from annual volumes of
N. W. Ayer & Son's American Newspaper Annual and Directory, continuing as N. W.
Ayer & Son 8 Directory of Newspapers and Periodicalst Philadelphia. For detailed tabu-
lation, with critical note, see the monograph, Table 45.
[ 203 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
fewer papers. In 1931 there were 2,268. Weekly publications numbered
15,681 in 1900 and 16,323 in 1915. They have gradually, though irregu-
larly, declined to 12,825 in 1930 and 12,636 in 1931. Of these weekly
publications it is estimated that 11,015 are country newspapers. Semi-
weekly publications increased from 515 in 1900 to 617 in 1907, fluctuated
about this number until 1915 and fell off, with increases in occasional
years, to 454 in 1931. Tri- weekly publications never exceeded 95 during
the period and were 66 in 1931. Newspapers in 1931 were published in
9,830 communities, in most of which only a country weekly is found.
The Ayer's data on daily newspapers include many special interest
publications such as trade dailies and foreign language papers. More
important are English language daily newspapers of general circulation.
In general, both morning and evening papers show a downward trend
with the morning papers declining more rapidly. Morning papers in 1921
numbered 427; in 1930, 388; in 1931, 384. Evening papers were 1,601 in
1921, 1,554 in 1930, and 1,539 in 1931. 71 The combined net loss was 105.
Sunday papers, including dailies with Sunday editions, also showed a
loss, dropping irregularly from 545 in 1921 to 521 in 1930 and 513 in 1931.
Contrary to this trend in English language papers, the totals of
foreign language dailies remained relatively constant during the first
three decades of the century. Ayer listed 148 in 1900, 156 in 1910, 160 in
1920, and 159 in 1930.72 In 1930 there were 58 morning foreign language
dailies, 13 more than in 1910, but the 63 evening papers were 14 fewer
than the number in 1910. 73 In view of war time feelings and decreases in
immigration, these figures appear surprising. Possibly they reflect at-
tempts of alien groups to maintain cultural identity even in the face of
rapid cultural absorption.
In so far as it involves papers with straight party designations, the
decline in numbers of English language dailies has affected both of the
two major political parties. In 1900, 732 dailies acknowledged themselves
in the Ayer's directory as "democrat" and in 1930, 434. The correspond-
ing "republican" figures were 801 and 505. Papers labelled "independent
democrat" and "independent republican" have in both cases increased
about five-fold, while papers professing to be "independent" politically
jumped from 397 in 1900 to 792 in 1930. These now constitute the largest
single class.74 The foreign language dailies show a somewhat similar trend,
except that "democratic" papers have suffered a far sharper decline than
71 Compiled as of December 31 by Editor & Publisher, trade publication. Cf. Editor
and Publisher, International Year Book Number, vol. 64, p. 112, 1932; and the monograph,
Table 46. Circulation data that follow are from same source.
72 Compiled by W. Carl Masche from American Newspaper Annual and Directory,
op. cit.
73 For detailed analysis see the monograph, Table 47.
74 Compiled by W. Carl Masche. For detailed analysis see the monograph, Table 48
and passim.
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COMMUNICATION
"republican" and the "independent" papers were a larger proportion
of the total throughout the period. This increase in claimed political
independence may indicate that the newspaper is becoming less important
as an adjunct of the political party, that it seeks greater editorial freedom,
or that it desires to include various political adherents within its circula-
tion or advertising clientele.
All of this raises significant problems of control of opinion, especially
when coupled with increased chain ownership and consolidation. Modern
newspapers are profit enterprises. With them, more than in other indus-
tries, retrenchment is difficult, for a paper must be issued regularly and
attempts to cut content are quickly reflected in circulation losses. Con-
solidation and multiple ownership arise to meet the need for adjustment
in the face of mounting costs. Cities having a single daily newspaper
numbered in each decennial year, 1900-1930, inclusive, as follows: 353,
504, 686, 913. This increase represents suspensions and consolidations.
The restriction of the reader's choice to a single paper has interesting
implications. Monopoly of a field may mean a more independent journal-
ism but it makes possible a more deliberate selection and coloring of news
content.
Although numbers of general circulation newspapers had been declin-
ing, aggregate daily circulation gained regularly from 1921 to 1930 with
a drop of about 2.5 per cent in 1931. For morning papers a maximum of
118.5 per thousand population in the United States was reached in 1929.
For evening papers the maximum was in 1930 with a daily average of
25,155,000 copies, or 204.4 per thousand population. Sunday circulation
attained its high peak in 1929 (26,880,000) with 220.5 copies per thousand
inhabitants. There was a drop in 1930 and 1931. The figures for the period
suggest a slight shift of preference to evening papers, and also that news-
paper circulation as a whole is perhaps close to the point of maximum
saturation.
Periodicals: Numbers and Circulation. — All groups of periodicals, when
classed according to frequency of issue, reached their maximum number
in either 1929 or 1930. Their growth throughout the period from 1900 to
1930 has been sharper and more regular than is found in the newspaper
series for any portion of the field. The appearance of new bi-monthly and
quarterly publications has been notable. Monthlies, the largest single
group, increased in number from 2,328 in 1900 to 3,804 in 1930, and
quarterlies, the next largest class, more than tripled.75 Both showed losses
in 1932.
These increases probably reflect twentieth century changes in social
organization. The growth in number of what sociologists have termed
76 For detailed analysis of these figures, see the monograph, Table 45 and passim. Data
compiled by Rose Epstein from American Newspaper Annual and Directory, op. cit. See also
Table 1 in Chap. VIII.
[ 205 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
secondary groups, in which the unity comes from specialized common
interests, has been striking. Contact among members in such groups is
maintained through publications and the need for these organs is reflected
in the data. There has also been some increase in numbers of general
purpose magazines. It is not possible to summarize circulation of these
periodical publications. For selected classes, as reported in Editor &
Publisher, the growth has been great.76 Nine of eleven women's magazines
listed in 1931 exceed a million a month and five of the general monthlies
exceed 600,000 an issue. There are agricultural journals with a million
circulation a month. Of the classes summarized by Editor & Publisher,
circulation in the weekly group showed the most rapid gains. In aggregate,
these periodical circulations are impressive and attest to the avidity with
which the public is reading.
Widening News Horizons. — Following the growth of the great news
associations, American papers have at their disposal more news from a
wider variety of sources than ever before. A study of Associated Press
traffic for one week in 1929 showed that, excluding financial and stock
exchange tables, it transmitted 2,562,715 words in 17,323 items with date
lines from 1,850 different communities. During the period, 94.2 percent of
the wordage and 93.9 percent of the items were of domestic origin. News
sources are highly concentrated; one-fourth of the domestic items bore
date lines of 17 cities. That metropolitan centers shape the news patterns
of the country can scarcely be questioned. The press associations are
clearly important in spreading the values and interests of the great urban
centers into the smaller communities.
Washington is a news center of special significance, and news from there
is one bond connecting the citizen with the government. Since 1900
impressive increases have occurred both in the number of accredited
newspaper men in the Congressional press gallery and in the number of
papers with Washington press representatives. There has also been a
marked increase in numbers and personnel of syndicates and press
associations. For newspaper readers throughout the nation, there is closer
contact with the capital.77
For the individual the newspaper constitutes the principal source of
information and stereotypes about foreign affairs. Woodward in 1927
showed that the typical American morning newspaper devoted about
5 percent of its news space to dispatches from abroad.78 Aggregate figures
of the cable and wireless companies dispatching press matter indicate
increase in volume of incoming and outgoing transatlantic and transpacific
news. Each year between 1916 and 1929 the wordage received from
76 See the monograph, Table 49.
77 For detailed analysis, based on data compiled from the Congressional Directory by
Charles Kachel, see the monograph, section XIV.
78 Woodward, Julian, Foreign News in American Morning Newspapers, New York, 1929.
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Europe was more than double that transmitted, although the disparity
has lessened. In transpacific dispatches, the words sent to this country
were fewer than the outgoing in six of the eleven years between
1920 and 1930. The volume of Pacific press material is relatively small.
This is explained in part by the higher cable costs. In 1929, 20,731,000
words were received from, and 8,781,000 words sent to, Europe, whereas
only 726,000 words came from, and 1,299,000 words were sent across the
Pacific.79 Europe, owing to cultural and geographical proximity, is
obviously more in the consciousness of the American public than
are the countries across the Pacific, judged by volume of press
material. This suggests a lack of balance in reporting world affairs,
which, in view of recent developments, may be regarded as short-
sighted. The importance of the Orient and Australasia may justify more
complete news coverage.
It is impossible here to discuss the qualitative aspects of newspaper
and periodical contents. The present purpose has been to portray in brief
the development and importance of agencies by which materials from
ever widening areas are brought to increasing numbers of newspaper and
periodical readers with constantly accelerated speeds. Every agency of
transportation and point to point communication is utilized. No corner of
the earth is left unobserved, and accounts of the events of the world pour in
continuously for selection, editing and printing, so that individuals
throughout the country may read about them. Regardless of intrinsic
importance, the grist of events does bring readers in momentary touch
with regions and persons far removed. Whether enhanced understanding
or increased distrust among peoples results depends largely upon
selection and emphasis. It would be desirable to know whether newspaper
materials from distant points are increasing at a more rapid rate than
those from the area of publication. Such knowledge might again throw
light upon the net results of the antithesis between widespread standard-
ization and intensification of localism; but, unfortunately, evidence is
not available.
The Advertising Function. — Advertising is another function of the
newspaper and periodical, and these publications are increasingly
dependent upon advertising revenues. In 1909, 63.8 percent of newspaper
income and 51.6 percent of periodical income was from advertising; in
1927, 74.1 percent and 63.4 percent, respectively.80 As selling aids in
national markets these publications have their greatest advertising
utility. Following the World War national newspaper advertising lineage
79 Data on wordage in transoceanic press dispatches were compiled from figures supplied
by all the commercial cable and wireless companies regularly engaged in receiving and
transmitting such material. Details are presented in the monograph, Table 50.
80 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures: Printing and Publishing, 1919,
1923 and 1927. Details in the monograph, Table 52.
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RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
jumped fabulously. From 1921 onward there were irregular gains with
retardation evident in 193081 and a loss of 9.7 percent in 1931.
The growing proportion of newspaper and periodical revenues received
from advertising gives rise simultaneously to claims of subservience to and
independence from advertisers' control. It may be suggested that what-
ever control is exerted by publishers over news columns arises not because
of direct dictation by advertisers, which is probably not frequent, but
because the publisher sees the world of economic and social activity from
the standpoint of a business man operating a commercial undertaking
of magnitude. It is inevitable, however, that individuals with special
interests will seek to utilize the mass circulation of newspapers and
periodicals for their own ends. Publishers are constantly confronted with
materials which have both news and publicity value. The rise of the press
agent and public relations counsel reflects the desire of many individuals
and groups for favorable newspaper mention, often without paying for it,
and it has become increasingly difficult for the newspaper to protect
itself and its readers against materials which are essentially of an advertis-
ing nature.
The Motion Picture.82 — The motion picture has varied uses. It is as a
medium of entertainment that it achieves uniqueness as an agency of
mass impression. By combining sight and sound, it commands the
concentrated attention of those it reaches as does no other agency. Its
rise to popularity has been rapid since the first "nickelodeon" appeared
about 1905 or earlier. It is estimated that on January 31, 1931, there were
22,731 motion picture houses in the country, with aggregate seating
capacity of 11, 300,000. 83 About 14,000 of these were operating at least
two days a week. Small houses have been closing in recent years because
of competition with larger theaters and because of the expense of installing
sound apparatus, bringing probable declines in the number of theaters.
Attendance through 1930, however, appeared to gain, though a decline
has since set in. Competent opinion estimates about 100,000,000 admis-
sions to motion picture performances weekly in the United States (1930).
To meet the needs for pictures, 500 feature films with about 200 prints
of each were made in 1930.
During the two years 1929 and 1930, the silent picture suddenly
became outmoded by the introduction of the "talkie," although silent
films are still produced, largely for export. On January 1, 1931, 12,500
81 From data compiled by Editor & Publisher, op. cit., for 23 selected cities. See the
monograph, Table 51. See also Chap. XVII.
s2 See also Chaps. Ill and XVIII.
83 Estimates by Motion Picture Division, United States Department of Commerce.
The following estimate of operations is by the Motion Picture Producers and Distributors
of America, Inc. Competitive conditions within the industry have prevented the develop-
ment of adequate statistics concerning it. During 1931 and 1932 there has been a decrease
in the number of motion picture theatres in operation.
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theaters in the country had been wired .for sound.84 Although the sound
picture has been generally accepted for domestic exhibition, it still
presents complex problems for producers. It permits a degree of character-
ization that was impossible to the silent film. The latter could indicate
subjective states only by indirection and by captions. Hence, it depended
for its appeal upon pantomime and action. With the voice, the thoughts
and emotions of characters can be revealed directly and the pictures
attain a psychological depth that action alone could not give. This
involves subtleties that may be above the interest or background of the
audience. Where talk is overstressed there is danger of loss of speed and
interest; where action dominates, the talk becomes stilted and stereo-
typed. Producers confront the difficulty of balancing action and words to
create a semblance of reality that is at the same time within the level of
experience of the audience. In further consequence, the range of subject
matter has been greatly widened and in many respects the motion picture
has come more closely to resemble the stage. This seems to have influenced
habits of attendance. Whereas individuals formerly went to performances
regardless of what was to be seen, observers contend that there is now a
tendency to select more carefully, as one might choose a theatrical
performance.
Motion Pictures and Social Values. — Although the motion picture is
primarily an agency for amusement, it is no less important as an influence
in shaping attitudes and social values. The fact that it is enjoyed as
entertainment may even enhance its importance in this respect. Any
discussion of this topic must start with a realization that for the vast
audience the pictures and "filmland" have tremendous vitality. Pictures
and actors are regarded with a seriousness that is likely to escape the
casual observer who employs formal criteria of judgment. Editors of
popular motion picture magazines are deluged with letters from motion
picture patrons, unburdening themselves of an infinite variety of feelings
and attitudes, deeply personal, which focus around the lives and activities
of those inhabiting the screen world. One editor receives over 80,000 such
letters a year. These are filled with self-revelations which indicate,
sometimes deliberately, more often unconsciously, the influence of the
screen upon manners, dress, codes and matters of romance. They disclose
the degree to which ego stereotypes may be moulded by the stars of the
screen. Commercial interests appreciate the role of the motion picture
as a fashioner of tastes, and clothes patterned after the apparel of popular
stars, and for which it is known there will be a demand, are manufactured
in advance of the release of pictures in which these stars will appear.
Names and portraits of moving picture actors and actresses have also
84 Estimate supplied by Motion Picture Division, United States Department of Com-
merce.
[ 209 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
been extensively used for prestige purposes in the advertisements of
various commodities.
While it is the dramatic subjects that are of major interest in the study
of the motion picture, the news reel also has won popular favor. With its
subjects selected from a wide range of events that might be filmed, it
presumably plays a part in inculcating values, although its role has
never been adequately studied.
It is because of its influence in shaping attitudes and inculcating values
and standards that there has been widespread discussion of motion
picture censorship. On one hand are those urging extreme control, and on
the other those who seek unfettered development. Because of variation
in local standards, it is extremely difficult to establish a common
basis for film eliminations where censorship exists. Not infrequently
producers must cut pictures after production at considerable expense
to meet local requirements. In attempts to avoid this, censorship
within the industry has developed in the National Board of Review.
The need for thoroughgoing study of the social effects of the motion
picture seems clear.
Advertising and Motion Pictures. — Lantern slides carrying advertising
were exhibited in the intervals between entertainment pictures from the
start. Advertising films followed naturally. In 1930 appeared "sponsored"
motion pictures, having entertainment value, "presented by -
a given advertiser, but without other necessary relation to his product
or services. The device was clearly borrowed from the new technique of
radio advertising. For exhibiting such films theaters were paid on an
attendance basis. They aroused much opposition, not only from the
public, but particularly from the newspapers and magazines which feared
advertising competition; in consequence they were less generally used in
1931. Attempts were also made in 1930 to include unobtrusive advertising
within feature pictures. The technique is still incipient, but offers new
possibilities of control.
Non-theatrical Motion Pictures. — Non-theatrical uses of the motion
picture are varied. It is estimated by the Department of Commerce that
over 190,000 non-theatrical projectors are in use, including home sets.
In 517 primary and secondary schools within one year there were 44,186
showings of pictures, of which 73 percent were in connection with cur-
ricular activity.85 Churches have used the motion picture extensively
as a means of attracting and holding younger members. It is also used in
connection with sales campaigns, advertising and demonstrations of
products, and an extensive market has developed for non-entertainment
films of this character. Films also have value in showing scientific tech-
86 Data supplied by Motion Picture Division, Department of Commerce, which is
studying non-commercial uses of the motion picture.
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niques. Non-theatrical uses of motion pictures promise to develop far
more extensively in the future.
Radio Broadcasting.86 — The dramatic evolution of the radio
within one decade from a mysterious curiosity to a widely diffused and
universally accepted instrument of entertainment, business, learning
and mass communication, has few if any counterparts in social history.
Its rapid development has brought many problems of organization and
control which as yet are not definitely settled. How shall broadcasting be
supported? How shall the facilities be allocated? Who shall control the
programs? How may all interests be conserved? How are legal concepts
of property rights affected ? These are but a few of many questions await-
ing conclusive answers.
Ownership and Distribution of Radio Sets. — The federal census of
1930 reported 12,078,345 families owning radio sets.87 On January 1, 1932,
according to an estimate, there were 16,026,620 sets in use in the United
States.88 The distribution is not uniform throughout the country. It
varies from region to region, between urban and rural districts and accord-
ing to economic status and race. There is also a metropolitan concentra-
tion that suggests a "pattern of ownership" around the large cities.
These will be discussed briefly in turn.
The largest proportion of families with sets is in the middle Atlantic
division (New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania) and the smallest
proportion in the east south central division (Kentucky, Tennessee,
Alabama and Mississippi). Within these divisions there are also wide
variations. Among states, the extremes are New Jersey (63.3 percent) and
Mississippi (5.4 percent). Ownership is highest in the eastern, northern
and Pacific states, and lowest in the south.89
In general, ownership ratios in cities (10,000 or over) are greater than
in non-urban areas. In Alabama, for example, the percentage of families
having sets, by counties, ranged from 1.4 to 22.6; but in the city of Birm-
ingham, was 26.7. For the state as a whole, the ratio was 9.5; for the
cities of over 10,000, 18.0.90
86 See also Chaps. Ill and XVIIT.
87 It should be noticed that the units are families with sets, rather than number of sets.
Data used here are from Press Releases of the U. S. Bureau of the Census on Families and
Radio Sets, appearing irregularly during 1931. The numbers here are slightly larger than
given in the census volume on families, because of a slightly different definition of the term
"family."
88 Estimated by Columbia Broadcasting System on basis of federal census and sub-
sequent sales in 1930 and 1931, with allowance for replacement.
89 For detailed analysis of the radio data, with tabulation by states, see Trends in Com-
munication, especially Table 53.
90 Except for the middle Atlantic division, a comparison of the percentage of all families
owning sets in the several geographic divisions with the median of the corresponding ratios
for the cities exceeding 10,000 in population shows the median ratio of the cities to be
higher. The one exception (New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania) and the New England
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The economic differential appears by inference. The states in which
set ownership is highest are also the states of greatest wealth. Further,
the cities in which at least three-fourths of all families own sets are gener-
ally suburban, adjacent to large cities, where average economic status is
high. The highest ownership ratio (88.7) is found in Park Ridge, Illinois,
a residential suburb of Chicago. This high ratio of ownership in residential
suburban districts makes safe the assumption that concentration of
wealth and radio ownership are related.
States with high proportions of Negro population are low in set
ownership. The ownership ratios among the white populations of southern
states would doubtless be much higher than general state ratios indicate.
This differential reflects the low average economic and social status of
the Negro. Low set ownership in the south may in part reflect climatic
conditions which affect broadcasting by increasing static and decreasing the
efficiency of reception, although other factors are unquestionably involved.
The concentration of sets in and around metropolitan areas, to which
the preceding differentials together lead, appears to be productive of
still further concentration. In such areas, for instance, many communities
in which economic status is not above the average nevertheless show
higher set ownership than would be expected on the basis of their urban
character alone. The importance of access to metropolitan radio programs
must not be neglected as a factor; nevertheless, the data suggest the
existence of metropolitan patterns of culture that call inordinately for
possession of a "set."
Back of these differentials are two factors that should be kept in
mind: (1) low set ownership may reflect inadequate power facilities
rather than cultural non-appreciation of the radio ; (2) broadcasting is an
economic enterprise and develops accordingly in large cities where there
are potential revenues, with program offerings correspondingly more
attractive to the radio audience. Where programs are good and reception
is clear, there is inducement to ownership. Whatever the final explanations,
it seems clear that the radio is primarily an urban phenomenon. While it
contributes to a breakdown of rural isolation, it may be affecting even
more, though in ways not entirely clear, the residents of the cities.
Rise of Commercial Broadcasting. — The early rapid and unplanned
growth of broadcasting in the United States produced chaotic conditions
which prevailed until 1927 when the Federal Radio Commission was
given control.91 But even prior to 1927, changes in station ownership
were taking place. Many of the first stations were adjuncts of radio shops,
group (where the difference is very slight) presumably reflect the many suburban com-
munities of less than 10,000 in which the set ownership is sufficiently high to offset the
generally lower non-urban ownership. For details of this comparison, see the monograph,
section XVI.
91 See Chap. XXVIII.
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COMMUNICATION
the electrical business and service companies. In 1922, 126, or nearly
one-third, were so owned. Gradually commercial broadcasting companies
came to prominence. In 1930 more than one-third of the 612 stations in
the country were operated by them, while only 37 were then operated by
electric and service companies.
The total number of stations in the country reached a maximum in
1927, since which year the number has dropped annually, as a result of
the restrictive policy adopted by the Federal Radio Commission.92
Ownership of stations by churches,93 educational institutions, and news-
papers reached maxima in or by 1927, and has since declined, both
absolutely and relatively. At the end of the fiscal year, June 30, 1930,
educational institutions operated 52 stations, churches 30, and newspapers
36. These shifts in ownership indicate the rise of the radio as a commer-
cial, advertising industry. This development has brought much criticism,
both from those who feel that radio should be more extensively used for
educational purposes, and from those who object to the domination they
allege is held by the broadcasting companies and the advertisers from
whom they derive support.
Its news and advertising functions, especially the latter, have brought
the radio into competition with the newspaper and, to a lesser degree,
the periodical.94 In sample periods in 1931 only 29.2 percent of the pro-
grams of one of the chains, and 34.7 percent of the other, were productive
of advertising revenue (sponsored programs). These sponsored programs,
however, tend to be at hours when listening is at its maximum. The
sums involved are sufficiently great to arouse publishers. Exclusive of
talent costs to advertisers, their purchases of program time from the two
major broadcasting companies increased from $10,252,497 in 1928 to
$26,819,156 in 1930. There is evidence that the current decline in news-
paper advertising cannot be attributed primarily to the increase in radio
advertising as is frequently done, since the increases in radio income are
much less than the losses in advertising revenue sustained by the news-
papers. Further, one study seems to indicate that advertisers who use
radio have cut their newspaper advertising appropriations less than
advertisers who do not use the newer medium.95 The relations of these
two agencies of mass impression are problems as yet unsettled. There is
evidence that control of radio advertising would be desirable in order to
prohibit types denied to newspapers.
92 Data from U. S. Radio Division, Radio Service Bulletin; ownership figures compiled
by Herman S. Hettinger from U. S. Radio Division, Commercial and Government Radio
Stations, annual, and Federal Radio Commission, List of Licensed Broadcasting Stations
by Call Letters, intermittently. For details see the monograph, Table 54.
93 On the church and the radio, see Chaps. Ill and XX.
94 On radio advertising, see Chap. XVII.
96 For radio advertising revenues, see National Advertising Records, monthly. Cf. Orrin
E. Dunlap, Radio in Advertising, New York, 1931, especially foreword by Roy S. Durstine.
[ 213 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
There is also public objection to advertising announcements. The
American system of supporting radio through advertising is not generally
found abroad, where there is usually governmental monopoly, operation,
or strict control, coupled with a tax on all sets. There are apparent advan-
tages in both systems and it does not seem clear that either possesses
unqualified superiority. The newness of broadcasting, with lack of exper-
ience upon which to base opinions, makes it difficult to evaluate the
various plans of operation.
Classification of stations according to power shows trends toward
greater power. The stations under 100 watt power in 1923 were more
than four times the number in 1930, whereas the number of stations with
higher powers have all shown an upward trend. In 1923 there was no
station in excess of 5,000 watts; in 1930 there were more than 75. 96
Concentration of Broadcasting. — Growing concentration in the control
of broadcasting facilities is shown in the membership of the two major
broadcasting "chains." Chains are stations associated under a central
company for the simultaneous broadcast of programs. Through "hook-
ups" the national company is provided with widespread outlets for its
advertising (sponsored) programs, while the individual stations have
the advantage of obtaining programs at less cost than they otherwise
could. The aggregate number of stations associated with the National
Broadcasting Company and the Columbia Broadcasting System grew
from 64 in 1928 to 150 on January 1, 1931. In addition to these two organ-
izations, there are several lesser chains. While the majority of stations in
the country have no chain affiliation, chain stations have advantages
that give them great strength and popularity. With the trend toward
increased power, which means high operating costs, it may be predicted
that there will be a continuation of the downward trend in numbers of
stations, with further concentration within the major chains.
The Radio Audience. — Information concerning the radio audience is
fragmentary.97 There is evidence that three-fourths of all sets are in
use at some time each day. Some authorities claim an average of 3.1
listeners per set, which, using the number of sets enumerated in the 1930
federal census, would give a daily audience of 37,442,869. 98 The average
set, according to the Starch survey, is in operation 2 hours and 25 minutes
daily and all investigators agree that the maximum number of listeners
is between 8 and 10 p.m.
96 See the monograph, Table 55, for detailed analysis.
97 This is surveyed in more detail in the monograph, section XVI.
98 Data drawn from Daniel Starch, Revised Study of Radio Broadcasting, National
Broadcasting Co., New York, 1930; "Radio Advertising," annoymous, Fortune, vol. 2,
pp. 65 ff ., 1930 (summarizing an unpublished study by Crossley, Inc., research organization,
not to be confused with Crosley Radio) ; and information supplied by John J. Karol, Colum-
bia Broadcasting System.
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There are undoubtedly wide daily variations in the size of the audience
of any station, depending upon program popularity. The prevailing
"listening area" of a station seems not to be circular with the station at
the center, but is irregular, with curious results in the distribution of
station audiences. For example, some Massachusetts stations apparently
have closer "listeners' contact" with communities in Maine than they
do with localities close at hand. Such facts indicate that regional and
sectional consciousness may be affected in ways that at the moment
cannot be predicted."
Certain it is that the radio tends to promote cultural levelling. Negroes
barred from entering universities can receive instruction from the same
institutions by radio; residents outside of the large cities who never
have seen the inside of an opera house can become familiar with the
works of the masters; communities where no hall exists large enough
for a symphony concert can listen to the largest orchestras of the country;
and the fortunes of a Negro comedy pair can provide social talk through-
out the nation. Isolation of backward regions is lessened by the new
agency of communication, and moreover, by short wave transmission
national as well as local isolation is broken, for events in foreign nations
are thereby brought to the United States. The radio, like the newspaper,
has widened the horizons of the individual, but more vitally, since it
makes him an auditory participant in distant events as they transpire
and communicates to him some of the emotional values that inhere in
them.
The Individual and the Agencies of Mass Impression. — It is as
agencies of control that the newspaper, the motion picture and the radio
raise problems of social importance. The brief survey of their develop-
ment in each instance shows increased utilization coupled with concentra-
tion of facilities. For his news, the reader of the paper is dependent
largely upon the great news gathering agencies; for his motion pictures,
there is dependency upon a group of well organized producers; for his
radio, he comes more and more in contact with large and powerful
stations, dominated increasingly by the nation wide broadcasting organi-
zations. Mass impression on so vast a scale has never before been possible.
The effects produced may now be quite unpremeditated, although the
machinery opens the way for mass impression in keeping with special ends,
private or public. The individual, the figures show, increasingly utilizes
these media and they inevitably modify his attitudes and behavior.
What these modifications are to be depends entirely upon those who
control the agencies. Greater possibilities for social manipulation, for ends
that are selfish or socially desirable, have never existed. The major
problem is to protect the interests and welfare of the individual citizen.
99 Cf. Listening Areas, Columbia Broadcasting System, New York, 1930.
[ 215 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
IV. THE PROBLEMS OF COMMUNICATION
It is not the purpose to summarize here the many changes which
have been traced in the preceding sections, for summaries have been
included section by section. A few general points stand out from the
survey.
1. Changes within the transportation system have engendered a
mobility of the population that is unprecedented. It is not only the few,
but the many who travel. The use of the private automobile makes
possible travel for travel's sake, and travel has become an accepted habit.
2. There has been a constant extension of the range of mobility,
fostered by modern transportation agencies.
3. Popular conceptions of speed and distance have been completely
revised, in consequence of which the world has become psychologically
much smaller, and an enhanced interdependency results.
4. There has been a significant shift in domestic transportation from
dependence upon commercial vehicles to the private automobile. Mobility
is accompanied by enhancement of freedom of movement.
5. The agencies of point to point communication have similarly
extended the radius of man's contacts.
6. An interconnected system of communication has come into exist-
ence whereby the individual is enabled at scarcely a moment's notice to
place himself in contact with almost any other person in the nation.
Speed and distance concepts, again, have been totally recast. No longer
do men in any part of the world live to themselves alone. For an increasing
majority in the United States and for a substantial fraction in the whole
western world, the telephone bell is always potentially within ear shot,
the postman and telegraph messenger are just around the corner and the
cable and wireless may bring messages which are dated the day after they
are received.
7. Agencies of mass impression subject the individual to stimuli of
sight and sound that may serve to make him think and act, in some
measure, like millions of his fellows.
8. With the concentration of these agencies the control over his
behavior is increased.
9. The integration of the agencies of communication becomes
more apparent. As old agencies are confronted by newer agencies,
functions shift and adjustments are required. There is a moving
equilibrium that is disturbed by changes in the old agencies or the
introduction of new ones.
10. Out of this integration emerges an all pervasive system of com-
munication from which it is difficult to escape. Each new device provides
one more channel that has its ultimate focus in the individual.
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COMMUNICATION
11. The tempo of life is speeded, for agencies that facilitate contacts
engender them. Man becomes dependent upon the new instruments and
their use becomes a part of routine.
12. As each agency lengthens the radius and increases the frequency of
contact at a distance, it also makes possible an increased frequency of
local contacts. Where is the change relatively greatest? The balance
between these cannot be stated. On the one hand are the forces seeming
to make for standardization, and on the other, those perhaps tending to
enhance localisms. The two processes may proceed together; in externals
there may be a cultural levelling, while inwardly old traditions, attitudes
and beliefs may gain reinforcement through mutual interaction. Overt
likeness does not guarantee subjective similarity.
In short, an interconnecting, interconnected web of communication
lines has been woven about the individual. It has transformed his behavior
and his attitudes no less than it has transformed social organization itself.
The web has developed largely without plan or aim. The integration has
been in consequence of competitive forces, not social desirability. In this
competition the destruction of old and established agencies is threatened.
Admittedly the picture which has been drawn here is schematic and
incomplete. The agencies which have been discussed are not isolated
entities; to an extent greater than it has been possible to show, they are
interrelated; moreover, many have necessarily been omitted. Informal
types of communication especially — conversations, committee procedures
and gossip for example — have been slighted. Even so, there emerges a
picture of tremendous, interacting changes within the period of a single
generation which have transformed the individual's conception of the
world by virtue of bringing it, and other human beings, closer to him.
CHAPTER V
TRENDS IN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION1
BY EDWIN F. GAY AND LEO WOLMAN
E^KING men, materials and technology is the economic organiza-
tion— another factor of social change — which helps to determine
our material culture and precipitates mechanical inventions, just
as inventions in turn carry with them social consequences and stimulate
social discoveries.
Especially in a period of business depression, economic problems come
up for review. In the present chapter are shown some of the gaps between
social inventions and their adaptation, the huge and uncalculated con-
sequences of the World War, the movements of prices, the distribution
of income and the growth of wealth, the productivity of industry, the
scale of industrial operations, business combinations and mergers, changes
in banking and the credit structure, and the problems arising within
business itself and in the relations between business and government.
The perspective is short for the detection of events which may have
continuing and far reaching effects; older tendencies and forces may still
be operative and because they are familiar they may obscure the new
conditions which are making obsolete current institutions and thought.
The task of the economic interpreter at the present time is particularly
difficult. He can trace the outstanding features of the economic develop-
ment of the United States since 1914; the prosperity of the war period;
the hectic spurt after the brief pause of 1919; the crisis of 1920-1921;
the resumption of marked business activity stretching from 1922 to 1929,
with two minor recessions in 1924 and 1927 and with certain lagging
elements; the feverish speculation in securities and real estate which
collapsed at the close of 1929.
But the normal recession of a business cycle beginning in 1929 has,
contrary to expectations, been prolonged into a depression of exceptional
magnitude. The usual phenomena of the business cycle have obviously
been reinforced by long time trends which must be traced back to the
period of the war or before and to post-war developments both inside and
1 The material on banking and prices was prepared for this chapter by B. H. Beckhart
of Columbia University. Unpublished materials in the files of the National Bureau of
Economic Research and Economic Tendencies, by Frederick C. Mills, National Bureau of
Economic Research, were drawn upon heavily, particularly for data on production, banking,
merchandising and consumers' credit.
[ 218 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
outside of the United States. Major structural changes in the national
and in the world economy seem to be in operation. Statistical investiga-
tion may not be able to determine with any precision the dimensions and
weight of these changes, partly because, though measurable, the data
are not adequately available, and partly because they are too numerous
to separate and measure. Even with such aids as the price series which the
statisticians of a number of countries have been compiling, the experts
cannot be sure that the gradual downward tendency in the commodity
price level for the past decade is the precursor of a long secular downward
trend, or that the decline in prices since 1929 represents the descent to
lower levels likely to persist for a long stretch of years. The indications
seem to point to such a trend as one of several underlying factors, yet
further observation for a succession of years will be necessary to establish
the certainty of a movement which W. Stanley Jevons, seventy years ago,
described as "insidious, slow and imperceptible." If, with all the elaborate
technique of modern statistical science, the fundamentals for an analysis
of the price and monetary element in the problem are still obscure, the
investigator is left helpless in evaluating current psychological elements
such as the widespread and continued post-war nervousness of the
European investor which has been one responsible factor in throwing out
of gear the gold flow of the international exchanges. But although any
comprehensive economic survey of the post-war period must suffer
from the difficulty of distinguishing permanent from temporary forces,
it is still possible to indicate some of the outstanding changes of the period
which affect the economic organization and the social outlook of the
United States.
Some of the economic developments of this period are continuations of
old tendencies which have been accelerated or intensified by the vast
economic disturbances generated by the war. The changing position of the
United States as a producer of raw materials; the relative decline of
agriculture and the expansion of industry, trade and transportation; and
even, perhaps, the slackening rate of population growth were trends
discernable in this country during many past generations. Under the
impact of the powerful economic and political forces of the last fifteen
years the flow of immigrant labor into the United States was brought
under control; the decline of agriculture and the increase of non-agri-
cultural enterprises were accelerated; and the place of the United States
in the world economy radically transformed.
No longer does the United States have "illimitable" forests and
unplowed prairies. At the turn of the century the area of fertile land open
freely for settlement was visibly dwindling. With one last expansion
into the dry farming land of the Great Plains region, under the impulse
of the food demand of the World War and with an improved technique of
[ 219 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
cultivating and harvesting, the first book of American history was closed.
Public recognition of the change came first under Roosevelt with the
conservation of western forest areas and the beginning of desert reclama-
tion by irrigation. The forest conservation movement is passing eastward
into the hands of the states, which must also in certain areas assist in
meeting the problem of soil erosion. The irrigation enterprises, pro-
jected under the century old urge for more land, have gradually been
checked by the realization that capital and special training are required
for irrigation farming and that for the time being the pressure for new
land area is receding. The great period of extensive cultivation has
definitely drawn to an end and the country's basic industry faces a
radical readjustment.
The United States still holds an unrivalled control of natural resources,
essential for the development of large scale industrialism. Its nine hundred
and eighty million acres of farm land, a large proportion of which is
not yet intensively utilized, and its great resources of minerals, notably
of coal and iron, assure its future as an economic power. But there are
unmistakable signs that it is gradually losing its position among the
great raw material supply countries of the world where its rank was
foremost in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. It still leads
in some of its old staple exports such as cotton, tobacco and pork, but
with a slowly sinking percentage of total world exports. In the exports
of wheat it has fallen behind Canada and Argentina. Its imports of crude
petroleum and copper ore are increasing. Agricultural products composed
over 80 percent of the total exports of the United States in the five
year period 1876-1880; they have fallen to less than half that proportion
during the years since the war. The increasing industrialization of the
country is absorbing a steadily larger share of the raw products, leaving
a diminishing surplus for exportation.2
The realization that the natural resources of the United States are
not without limits and that the frontier with its lavish grants of free
land has disappeared was influential in bringing about one of the most
striking reversals of traditional American policy of the post-war period.
Other factors, such as the "lump of labor" theory nationally magnified
and the difficulties of union organization and social assimilation, played
a steadily increasing part in bringing about the severe restriction of
immigration, which was finally made effective by the Emergency Quota
Acts of 1921 and 1922 and the Immigration Act of 1924. But it was not
until a marked change in the racial character of the immigration and its
shift from the farm to the factory had been observed that the agitation
for restriction was translated into an investigation by the Immigration
2 For discussion of trends in land utilization and depletion of natural resources, see
Chap. II.
f 220 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
Commission of 1907 leading to the successive Congressional measures
and the final drastic legislation.3
It is not possible to estimate the full effects of this restriction as
yet. Part of the needs of industry have been met by internal migration,
by tapping supplies of labor from the farm and by the flow into industry of
Negroes and women. Immigration has also continued from the self-^
governing countries of the North American continent. Whether the net
reduction in the labor supply has been a notable factor in lifting the wage
level and in stimulating the remarkable increase in mechanization in
recent years is difficult to determine. A competent student of the problem4
believes that a prevailing tendency toward mechanization, long marked
in American industry, was intensified by the war, which effectively closed
the Atlantic to the movement of immigration, and by the post-war
restrictions. But the steady decline in the demand for labor, due first to
the general introduction of machinery between 1922 and 1929 and
thereafter to the effects of deep business depression, make it almost
impossible to estimate the influence of immigration restriction on working
conditions and the retardation in the rate of population increase. The
most that can be said is that the declining birth rate and reduced immigra-
tion may, with the resumption of normal business conditions, involve a
slower rate of industrial growth than we have had in the past and perhaps
also higher average standards of wages and hence of living.5
I. THE WAR ECONOMY
The World War has been the dominant influence on the economic
life of the United States since 1914. Although the major consequences
of the war appeared to many students of economic trends to have ended
with the resolution of the depression of 1921, subsequent events have
made it clear that the forces set in motion during the war years are
still powerful factors in directing the currents of contemporary economic
affairs and problems throughout the world. The effects of the war in this
regard are manifold. But their general nature is reasonably clear; and
no sound comprehension of the economic tendencies in this country during
the past fifteen years is possible without an appreciation of the funda-
mental impact of war economy.
In a sense the three periods of business activity and prosperity in
the United States from 1915 to 1918, 1919 to 1920 and 1922 to 1929 had
their roots in conditions produced directly and indirectly by the war. Dur-
ing the earlier period, business depression was converted into recovery
by the flood of orders from European warring countries and later ex-
3 For a discussion of immigration laws, see Chap. XI.
4 Jerome, H., American Economic Review, Supplement, March, 1927, vol. XVII, p. 128.
6 For estimates of future population, see Chap. I.
[ 221 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
panded by the vast purchases of war materials and equipment for the
American military machine. This combination of new foreign and
domestic purchasing power was more than enough to raise and sustain
industrial and business activity at abnormal levels. The withdrawal of
some 5,000,000 men from employment into the armed forces of the
country at the same time that the dangers of overseas travel cut off the
supply of immigrant labor, opened wide opportunities for full employ-
ment to the native population, and in the United States, as elsewhere,
rising wages and unusually full employment contributed to substantial
increases in the income of large sections of the population.
The first period of post-war prosperity was of short duration, lasting
only from the spring of 1919 to the middle of 1920. But it represented a
business boom of extraordinary proportions. Prices ascended to fantastic
heights; the volume of bank credit expanded; industrial activity rose
in all branches of industry; wages were increased and hours reduced at
rates much more rapid than during the war years themselves; the millions
released from the army and war industries were reabsorbed into peace
industries without apparent difficulty; and the corporations and busi-
nesses of the country reaped substantial benefits in the form of huge
profits and increasing corporate surpluses. It is unfortunately still
impossible completely to account for the origins of such a phenomenon.
It was in part due to the enhanced civilian demands of disbanded soldiers
and to the replenishment of stocks of peace time goods. But, however
important these factors may have been, there can be little doubt that the
continued expansion of credit on the foundation of an unprecedented
public war debt constituted a stimulus to business expansion which
should not be underestimated.
Good business during the years 1922-1929 was likewise not of simple
origin. To a considerable extent it represented recovery from the severe
business depression of 1921. But to an even greater degree this period
felt the influence of forces arising out of the war. Elements in the post-
war business situation of this country reflected the new commercial
relations between the United States and Europe and developments
within the American domestic market. The requirements for the economic
reconstruction of Europe meant, in the first instance, a large demand for
American products. The rise of the United States in the years since the
war as the most important creditor nation of the world, presumably
supplied with inexhaustible funds of credit for foreign investment,
combined with a willingness to lend freely to the countries of Europe
and other continents, led to extensive foreign loans and to the use of the
proceeds of these loans for the purchase of the goods of American pro-
ducers. This potent stimulus to business from abroad was supplemented
in the United States by equally powerful forces from two sources. The
[ 222 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
first was the enormous increase in the volume of construction, initially
originating in the normal process of making up the shortage in building
occasioned by war embargoes on private construction and later flowering
into a vast speculative boom;6 and the second was the swift growth of
so-called new industries, whose development involved not only the
current production of automobiles, petroleum, electrical equipment
and the like but, more important, large capital expenditures for the
construction of plant, equipment and roads. In both instances, moreover,
the abnormal expansion in the volume of consumers' credit, incurred
for the purchase of mortgages and houses and for the new products of
industry, created an unstable and impermanent source of purchasing
power and of capital funds.7
This high prosperity of the United States in the post-war years
was, however, not shared by agriculture.8 Some time before the present
depression the state of American agriculture had begun to illustrate the
instabilities of the world economy through the decline in agricultural
prices, the decrease in the value of farm property and the persistence of
a large burden of farm debt incurred when both the prices of farm
property and of agricultural products were at much higher levels.9
It is indeed not unlikely that the standard of living of the American
farmer in the post-war era was in part sustained by the proceeds of
mortgage debt which he found it increasingly difficult to liquidate.
The existence of this condition of agricultural depression was confirmed
by the steady and increasing number of bank failures in the rural areas
which long antedated the wave of suspension of city banks occasioned
by the business depression of 1930.10
Throughout the whole of the war and post-war period, also, a funda-
mental change took place in the character and magnitude of the current
expenditures and borrowings of both local and federal governments in the
United States. The effect of this increase in spending and in debt was not
only to increase the burden of taxation, but to lift the problem of govern-
ment fiscal policy to a place of first importance in the total economic
policy of the country.11 In common with most countries of the world,
the government of the United States has had as its major war and post-
war preoccupations the problem of war financing and since 1920 the
more difficult problem of reducing an abnormal public debt and of adjust-
ing the current expenditures of government to new conditions. With the
6 For figures on building construction, see Chap. IX.
7 See below, p. 256.
8 For a fuller discussion of agriculture see Chaps. II and X.
9 President's Conference on Unemployment, Recent Economic Changes, New York,
1929, vol. I, pp. 70-76.
10 See below, pp. 261-262.
11 On governmental expenditures, see Chaps. XXV and XXVI.
[ 223 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
precipitate drop in the price level and the contraction in trade since 1929,
at the same time that the demands on the federal government for the
relief of business and unemployment have constantly increased, both the
burden of taxation and the issue of debt control have become the most
significant and most troublesome of our contemporary economic prob-
lems. How radical a transformation in public finance was effected by the
war is illustrated in the following tabulation of the ordinary expenditures
and public debt of the federal government since the beginning of the
war:12
Year ending June 80 —
Total expenditures of the
federal government
(billions of dollars)
As of June 30 —
Gross debt of the federal
government (billions of
dollars)
1916
0 7
1914
1 2
1918
12 7
1919
35.5
1919
18 5
1930
16.2
1929
3 8
1931
16 8
1930
4 0
1932
°20.0
1931
4.2
0 Estimated.
When the figures for the year ending June 30, 1932 become available,
they will show a substantial increase over the preceding year. While the
local governments of the country were not burdefied with direct war
expenditures to the same degree, their expenses and debts rose under the
influence of example and the combination of rising prices and good busi-
ness. After fifteen years, therefore, the current outlay of the federal
government is more than six times the pre-war; the national debt has
grown nearly twenty-fold; and the price level is approximately where
it was in 1914.
Expansion in public credit was accompanied by an increase in the
volume of private credit and by an unprecedented development in the
extension of American credit to the governments and private industries
of foreign countries. War loans to Europe and the private credits em-
ployed in the reconstruction of post-war Europe, each in their own way
contributed to revise, if not to end, the isolated position of the United
States in the world economy and precipitated that range of problems
with respect to reparations, inter-allied debts and the relation of private
to public foreign debts which is calculated finally to produce a basic
transformation in our economic thinking. Within an economic situation
of this character, trends in banking and in credit extension in the United
States, markedly affected by the necessities and policies of war finance,
12 Data from U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Statistical Abstract of
the United States, 1931, pp. 173 and 216.
[224]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
helped to produce that instability in our financial institutions which has
played such havoc with our economic life since the beginning of the last
depression.
The years since 1914, then, are marked by swift and fundamental
adjustment from a peace to a war economy and then back to a peace
economy again; by continuing prosperity for fifteen years, briefly inter-
rupted in 1918, 1924 and 1927 and halted for more than a year in 1921;
by the conversion of the United States from a debtor to a creditor
country, sending a huge fund of credit abroad in little more than a decade;
and by the imposition of severe strains upon our instruments of banking
and public finance. The exciting succession of events beginning with the
war and the rapidity and magnitude of the adjustments made by all
economic institutions in this short space of time undoubtedly stimulated
the speculative fevers which rose and fell time and again during the period
and which at last culminated in the disastrous stock market and real
estate booms of the late twenties.
II. THE MOVEMENT OF PRICES
The problems generated by large and frequent fluctuations in the
levels of prices are well known in economic history. Disturbances in the
established relationship between creditor and debtor, employer and
employee, agricultural and industrial producers; the passage from high
activity to deep depression; and troublesome uncertainties as to the
future with their effects on business judgments and policies, are all
accompaniments of frequent and drastic movements in the prices of
commodities and of the variety of forms of tangible and intangible
property. Whether they are the cause or effect of general business condi-
tions, it is clear that violent fluctuations in prices were characteristic of
the period since 1914. Three periods of more than ordinary rising prices
and two of most severe decline, broken by a comparatively steady level
of commodity prices between 1924 and 1929, punctuated the business
history of this country during the last fifteen years.
TABLE 1. — PRICES FROM 1913 TO THE CLOSE OF THE WAR
Date
Index number of whole-
sale prices0
(1926 av. = 100)
Index numbers of the cost
of living*
(1923 = 100)
Average prices per share
of common stocks' (in
dollars)
1913 (av. for year)
1918 (November)
Percent change
69.8
136.3
+95.3
<»62.0
100.1
-1-61.5
58.7
85.3
+45.3
0 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 National Industrial Conference Board.
« New York Times, Average Price in Dollars of 25 Industrial Stocks.
* July, 1914.
[ 225 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Under the influence of war conditions, wholesale prices almost doubled
in five years, the cost of living rose by more than 60 per cent and the
prices of common stock advanced 45 percent.
After only a slight break in prices following the cessation of hostilities,
prices of all kinds started up again from the very high levels they had
reached in 1918 and by May, 1920, when the top was touched, wholesale
prices had advanced another 29 percent, the cost of living 26.4 percent
and stock prices 38.7 percent.
TABLE 2. — PRICES FROM Low OF 1919 TO HIGH OF 1920
Wholesale prices"
(1926 av. = 100)
Cost of living*
(1923 = 100)
Common stock prices8
(1926 = 100)
Date
Index
number
Date
Index
number
Date
Index
number
February, 1919
129.8
167.2
+28.9
March, 1919
97.8
123.6
+26.4
December, 1918
59.5
82.5
+38.7
May 1920
July, 1920
Percent change
Oct, 1919
Percent change
Percent change
a U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 National Industrial Conference Board.
« Standard Statistics Co. (351 industrial stocks).
The next major movement in prices was downward and occurred dur-
ing the long and severe liquidation of business and industrial depression,
dating roughly from the middle of 1920 to the early part of 1922. The
magnitude of the fall in prices in this period is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 3.— HIGH AND Low PRICES, 1920-1922
Wholesale prices0
(1926 av. = 100)
Cost of living6
(1923 = 100)
Common stock pric
(1926 = 100)
esc
Date
Index
number
Date
Index
number
Date
Index
number
May, 1920
167.2
July, 1920
123.6
October, 1919
82 5
January, 1922
91 4
August 1922
96 3
August 1921
46 5
Percent change
—45 3
—22 1
—43 7
0 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 National Industrial Conference Board.
" Standard Statistics Co.
Recovery from the depression was accompanied by the recovery of
prices but not of sufficient extent to raise them again to the levels of 1919
and 1920. Wholesale prices had risen some 14 percent by March, 1923,
and the prices of common stock by nearly 40 percent. The decline in
[ 226 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
business in 1924 brought all prices down once more, but this time only
moderately; and thereafter until 1929, the wholesale prices of com-
modities and the prices of common stock pursued a different course/ At
the same time that the wholesale prices were fluctuating within exceed-
ingly narrow limits, stock prices were rising to new and unprecedented
heights. Thus between 1924 and 1929 when there was only a slight
increase in the average of wholesale prices, common stocks recorded more
than a threefold rise in their average price.
TABLE 4. — INDEX NUMBERS OF WHOLESALE PRICES AND OF THE PRICES OF COMMON
STOCKS, 1924-1929
Date
Wholesale
prices0 (average
for month)
(1926 av. =
100)
Common stock
prices6 (average
for month)
(1926 = 100)
Date
Wholesale
prices0 (average
for month)
(1926 av. =
100)
Common stock
prices6 (average
for month)
(1926 = 100)
June 1924
94 9
65 6
June 1928
97 6
148 2
June, 1925
103.0
85.1
June, 1929
96.4
191.0
June, 1926
100.5
96.9
September, 1929.
97.5
216.1
June, 1927
93.8
114.0
0 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 Standard Statistics Co.
The final period of price change in the years under discussion was,
like that of 1921, one of precipitate and large decline. Beginning in 1929
this drastic fall in the price level is now in its third year and is, in June
1932, not yet arrested. The prices of all types of commodities and saleable
property, while not equally affected,13 have suffered from this prolonged
revision in the general price level.
TABLE 5. — INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES, 1929-1932
Date
Wholesale prices0
(1926 av. = 100)
Cost of living*
(1923 = 100)
Common stock prices0
(1926 = 100)
September, 1929
March, 1932
97.5
66.0
100.8
79 6
216.1
53 8
Percent change
-32. S
—21.0
—75.1
0 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 National Industrial Conference Board.
« Standard Statistics Co.
It is clear from this exhibit that price movements of such frequency
and amplitude must have had a profound, if not a determining, influence
not only on the course of business but on developments in economic and
13 For data on net per capita output of selected commodities in 1929 and 1931, see
Chap. XVII.
[ 227 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
social practice and thought. Adjustment to wide price fluctuations,
whether they lead to prosperity or depression, involve widespread
ramifications and are the substance of many of the economic problems
associated with existing economic systems. Disparities in the move-
ment among the multitudinous prices of advanced business communities
account for the major difficulties of the agricultural problem of the past
ten years, for the struggle to raise wages as fast as the cost of living
during the war and early post-war years, for the contemporary conflict
between creditor and debtor classes, and perhaps for the prolongation
of the present depression, the persistence of which, in the opinion of many
students of the problem, is attributable to the failure of some prices, such
as those of fabricated goods and of commodities sold at retail, to decline
at anything like the rate characteristic of the prices of raw materials
and of agricultural products.14 So far, finally, as the present fall in prices
is concerned, it has already had dire consequences in stagnant business,
in universal unemployment and in drastic reductions in the standard of
living.15 The continuance of the decline for any appreciable length of
time may even more fundamentally revolutionize our conceptions of
the adequacy of existing standards of life and of existing social controls
over the activities of private business.
III. INCOME AND WEALTH16
The sustained activity of industry in the United States during
the war and the majority of the post-war years has led many to believe
that the income of the people of the United States has, since 1914,
ascended to new and higher levels, substantially greater than those
prevailing before the war. The measurement of national income even in
ordinary times is a formidable task. The conception of national income is
not a simple one, since the statistical measure so designated is a com-
posite of various types of income not all susceptible of equally clear
and acceptable definition. The measurement, therefore, of more or less
indefinable elements leaves considerable latitude for broad estimate and
difference of opinion. In periods of appreciable price changes these prob-
lems of measuring real income are multiplied many times by reason of
the unavoidable difficulty encountered in constructing satisfactory index
numbers of the purchasing power of the dollar. Under the circumstances
it is essential to employ elaborate estimates of national income with
extreme caution and to compare them with indexes of the physical output
14 A full discussion of this phase of the price situation will be found in a book by
Frederick C. Mills, on pre-war and post-war economic changes, Economic Tendencies, Chap
VI, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1932.
15 See Chap. XVI.
16 Compare with discussion of income in Chap. XVII.
[ 228 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
of industry, of the volume of employment and the like, before coming to
final conclusions as to the trend of conditions.
Estimates of the national income in the United States have for many
years been made by Willford I. King. His latest estimates, which carry
the series through 1928, are shown in Table 6. The estimates, expressed
TABLE 6. — THE REALIZED INCOME OF THE PEOPLE OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES,
1914-1928°
Year
Millions of
current dollars
Millions of
1913 dollars
Year
Millions of
current dollars
Millions of
1913 dollars
1914
35,647
35,250
1922
65,925
40,565
1915
37,205
36,636
1923
74,337
45,164
1916
43 288
39,559
1924
77,135
46,758
1917
51 331
40,242
1925
81,931
48,412
1918
60,408
40,150
1926
*85,548
*50,421
1919
65,949
38,017
1927
<>88,205
^52,892
1920
73,999
37,573
1928
*89,41 9
&54.022
1921
63,371
36,710
0 King, W. I., The National Income and Its Purchasing Power, National Bureau of Economic Research, New
York, 1930, pp. 74, 77.
6 Preliminary estimate.
in current dollars, reflect the influence of price. When the two columns
are compared in the years 1919 and 1920, an increase in the national
income of substantially eight billions shrinks, after correction is made for
the rising price level, to an actual decline of some five hundred millions.
But even in the measure reduced to 1913 dollars, the post-war years
register somewhat larger increases than the pre-war. How great the differ-
ence in the rate of increase of the national income has been may be seen
from the following tabulation of changes in the per capita realized income
in terms of 1913 dollars.17 Since final estimates of the national income
Period
Percent increase in per
capita realized income
(in 1913 dollars)
Period
Percent increase in per
capita realized income
(in 1913 dollars)
1909 to 1913
6 4
1919 to 1923
11.8
1914 to 1918
8 1
1924 to 1928
9.7
require the use of a multiplicity of series, many of which are published
some years after the event, the estimates are not yet carried beyond 1928.
Highly tentative estimates for 1929, however, show an increase over the
preceding year of more than 3 billion dollars. These figures obviously con-
firm the common impression that national income has increased since the
war at a rate faster than during the pre-war years. Precise estimates of the
17 Computed from King, op. cit., p. 87.
[ 229 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
course of national income since 1929 are at this time impossible to make,
but comprehensive data on the decline in wages and salaries during 1930
and 1931, and less exhaustive data for the first half of 1932, indicate that
the drop in the national income in 1930, 1931 and in all probability in
1932, will far exceed the drastic decline of 1921. 18
How far the rise in total national income since 1914 has produced a
more equal distribution of it, it is hard, if not impossible, to tell. Since
the study by Frederick R. Macaulay19 of the distribution of personal
incomes in the United States in 1918, no investigation of the problem of
equal value has been made. Although the national income had by 1918
measurably increased because of large production and generally good
business, Macaulay's study revealed gross inequalities in income in that
year, presumably little different from those prevailing in the years before.
Estimates of the total share of employees in the national income, however,
show a decided increase in the proportion received in wages and salaries
in the years following 1917.
TABLE 7. — SHARE OF EMPLOYEES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME, 1914-1928°
Year
Percent of national income com-
prised by wages, salaries, pen-
sions, compensation, etc.
Year
Percent of national income com-
prised by wages, salaries, pen-
sions, compensation, etc.
1914
51 9
1922
57 2
1915
52 0
1923
57 7
1916
51 9
1924 . . .
57 7
1917
50 3
1925
57 2
1918
1919
53.5
53.7
1926
1927
59.1
58 8
1920
57 1
1928
58 9
1921
57 1
0 Computed from King, op. cit., p. 74.
In view of the opinion, prevalent in this and other countries during
the past years, that one probable cause of the present depression was the
excessive construction of plant and equipment due to the diversion of an
increasing proportion of the income of industry into profits and overhead,
King's findings are surprising. An adequate test of this hypothesis and
of the income data would require elaborate and long investigation. It is
pertinent to point out, however, that measures of physical output during
the post-war years show a marked increase in the production of capital
goods; and in the manufacturing industries, the share of wages alone or
of wages and salaries combined in the total value added by manufacture
18 See Chap. XVI.
19 Income in the United States, Its Amount and Distribution, 1909-1919, National Bureau
of Economic Research, New York, 1921, vol. II, chap. 30.
f 230 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
has declined substantially since 1923. Except in 1921, when, as in all
years of severe depression, wages, although much less in absolute amount,
were an exceptionally high percentage of total value added, the percent-
age for wages alone varied only slightly from 1899 to 1923, but fell very
rapidly between 1923 and 1929. The percentage for wages and salaries
combined had a decided upward trend from 1899 to 1914, little change
from 1914 to 1923 (except in 1921) and a considerable downward move-
ment during the last six years.
TABLE 8. — PERCENTAGE THAT WAGES, SALARIES, OVERHEAD AND RETURN TO CAPITAL ARE
OF THE TOTAL VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURE, 1899-1929*
Year
Wages
Wages and
salaries6
Overhead
and return
to capital
Year
Wages
Wages and
salaries6
Overhead
and return
to capital
1899
1904
1909
41.6
41.5
40.2
49.5
50.6
51.2
50.5
49.4
48.8
1921
1923
1925
44.7
42.6
40.0
57.5
53.4
51.0
42.5
46.6
49.0
1914
41.3
54.1
45.9
1927
39.3
51.3
48.7
1919
42 2
53 8
46 2
1929e
37 2
48 6
51 4
a U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures (biennial).
6 The percentages for 1923 to 1929 would be slightly higher if central office salaries were included, but these
are more akin to overhead.
c Adjusted.
Estimates of the size and distribution of the wealth of a country
are if anything more difficult to make than estimates of national income.
Aside from the confusion arising out of the factor of changes in prices,
estimates of wealth involve the valuation of an infinite variety of prop-
erty subject to multifarious market conditions and, in some instances, not
marketable at all. If the wealth of the United States be regarded as the
capacity of its industry and agriculture to produce goods, of its buildings
to house its inhabitants and its industry, then the wealth of the United
States has experienced a vast increase in the past several decades. Meas-
ured in terms of prices, however, indexes of wealth reflect price fluc-
tuations, changes in the assessed valuation of real property, varying farm
values and the like. Estimates of this type, obtained by interpolations
and extrapolations from the decennial censuses of Wealth, Debt and
Taxation have been made by the National Industrial Conference Board.
They show that the total wealth of the United States had increased two
and one half fold, or from 192 to 489 billions, between 1914 and 1920.
Even with the decline in the price level since 1920 the estimated wealth
stood at 362 billions of dollars in 1929.20 On the distribution of wealth,
we are even more in the dark. In spite of the deliberate attempts to
20 National Industrial Conference Board, "National Wealth and National Income,"
Conference Board Bulletin, February 20, 1932, no. 62, p. 495.
[ 231 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
promote the wider diffusion of ownership, there is little evidence that
any radical change in the distribution of wealth has taken place in this
country during the past several decades.21
IV. THE OUTPUT OF INDUSTRY
At least some of the obscurity which surrounds the changes in the
national income is removed by recent inquiries into the course of the
physical output of American industry and agriculture. As in the case of a
growing number of economic statistical series, the adequate measurement
of physical product is a comparatively recent innovation in statistical
practice, being little more than ten years old. An elaborate study of
contrasting economic developments in the United States during the pre-
war period 1901-1913, and the post-war years 1922-1929, made by
Frederick C. Mills for the National Bureau of Economic Research, has
yielded measures of changes in total physical production and in the
physical output of important component products which constitute the
material for the discussion in this section.22
The combined physical production of agriculture and of the manu-
facturing, mining and construction industries increased 34 percent from
to 1929, as is shown in the following index numbers from Mills:
1922. .
1923. .
1924..
100
111
109
1925 118
1926 125
1927.. . 124
1928.
1929.
.. 130
. 134
The advance in output was steady throughout the period and even in
the recession years, 1924 and 1927, the decline was surprisingly small.
Much more important, however, is the comparison between the rate of
increase in physical output in the pre-war and post-war periods. Per
capita output, reflecting the retardation in the rate of population growth,
as well as the rise in production, advanced twice as fast in the later years
as in the earlier, as is indicated by the average annual rate of increase.23
Period
Volume of production
Population
Per capita production
1901-1913
Percent
+3 1
Percent
+2 1
Percent
+1 1
1922-1929
+8 8
+1 4
+2 4
So drastic a change in the pace of industry must necessarily have involved
significant consequences in the banking, investment and business policy
31 See report of Federal Trade Commission, National Wealth and Income, U. S. Sen.
Doc., no. 126, 69th Congress, 1st session, 1926.
M See Mills, op. cit.
23 Mills, op. cit.
[ 232 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
of the country and may, indeed, furnish a useful clue to the reasons for
the severe decline in production which has continued since 1929.
Evidence contained in the measures of important component series
of the total index of production supports the conclusion that the produc-
tion of capital goods in the post-war years rose much more rapidly than
the output of commodities designed for direct consumption. While the
greatest disparity in output exists between the production of consumption
goods and machinery, the supply of transportation equipment remains
consistently higher than that of consumption products in each of the
years, except 1928, and non-residential construction, including the capital
expenditures of governments, outstrips consumers' goods in the last four
years of the period.
TABLE 9. — PHYSICAL PRODUCTION OF CONSUMPTION GOODS AND CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, IN
INDEX NUMBERS, 1922-1929°
(1922 = 100)
Year
Consumption goods
(including residential
construction)
Machinery
Transportation
equipment
Non-residential
construction
1922
100
100
100
100
1923
1924
111
110
134
121
175
136
80
89
1925
120
138
141
120
1926
125
153
139
142
1927
124
146
120
144
1928
130
157
99
150
1929
131
191
139
157
0 Mills, op. ciL
Probably the most striking and unusual developments in production
since the war are to be found in the divergencies in output among various
categories of goods purchased and used by the ultimate consumer.24
The great expansion in the automobile and electrical industries had far
reaching effects in diverting the consumers' purchasing power from old to
new products and placing in the hands of consumers stocks of durable
products which have a slow rate of obsolescence and which, consequently,
need to be replaced only after the lapse of considerable intervals of time.
The effects of the widespread substitution of such durable goods for the
perishable and semi-perishable commodities which before accounted for a
larger share of the oridinary consumer's expenditures are unquestionably
being felt during the current depression in the form of an exceedingly low
replacement demand for such products. The sharp contrast between the
output of the new and the old products is shown in Table 10. The differ-
ence between the increase of 72 percent in the production of durable goods
24 See discussion of consumers' goods given in Chap. XVII.
f 233 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
and the increase of less than 15 percent in the production of the staple
articles of consumption explains the depressed state of the staple indus-
tries during many of the prosperous post-war years.
TABLE 10. — PHYSICAL PRODUCTION OF TYPES OF CONSUMPTION GOODS, IN INDEX NUMBERS,
1922-1929°
(1922 = 100)
Year
Durable con-
Residential
Staples
sumption goods6
construction
Foods
Textiles
Boots and shoes
1922
100
100
100
100
100
1923
127
106
106
106
109
1924
120
125
107
92
97
1925
140
165
106
105
100
1926
151
159
110
105
100
1927
136
155
110
114
106
1928
154
165
113
108
107
1929
172
115
113
116
112
« Mills, op. cit.
b Includes automobiles, furniture, electrical equipment, carpets, mattresses, radios, phonographs and pianos.
So far as physical production is concerned, the "new era" was char-
acterized by an accelerated rate of total output; by the more rapid expan-
sion in the production of plant and equipment than of consumers' goods;
by an unprecedented rise in the output of durable consumption goods;
and by a substantial lag in the output of the staples, food, textile and
leather products. Since 1929 this trend in physical output has, of course,
been entirely reversed. By 1931 manufacturing output was 25 percent
below 1929; the production of minerals had fallen by substantially the
same amount. Automobile production in 1931 was less than half that of
1929; and the decline in both construction and in the manufacture of
capital equipment far exceeded the drop in the general level of physical
production.
Mechanization. — The high level of per capita physical output in
the United States from 1922 to the turn of business in 1929 was accom-
panied, if indeed it was not made possible, by an unusual increase in the
productivity of labor. By reason of scientific invention and the mechaniza-
tion resulting from the application of invention to industrial processes,25
and also as the result of vast improvements in the methods of factory
management, the output of labor in many industries rose so rapidly as to
make the phenomenon of technological unemployment one of the most
pressing of the economic and social problems of the post-war decade.
While various measures of the productivity of labor differ considerably
26 On production inventions, see Chap. III.
[ 234 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
in detail, there is little reason to doubt that the advances in productivity
since 1923 surpass the experience of similar earlier periods of which we
have any adequate record. Between 1899 and 1909 the output per worker
in agriculture increased 6 percent; in mining 13 percent; in manufacturing
7 percent; and in rail transportation 14 percent.26 Between 1923 and 1929,
a much shorter period, the productivity of manufacturing labor increased
22 percent;27 from 1920 to 1929 output per service hour of railway em-
ployees rose 22 percent;28 and from 1919 to 1929 the production per man
per day of bituminous coal miners increased 30 percent.29 In confirmation
of this acceleration in the advancing rate of output of labor, it is necessary
only to point to the huge developments in the consumption of energy in
the United States in comparatively recent years.30
The advance in mechanization has been made possible not only by the
invention and wide spread adoption of new and more efficient machinery
for the making and moving of material, but also by a marked increase and
refinement of the methods of standardization, by a wider recognition and
utilization of scientific research and by a broad acceptance of the prin-
ciples underlying what F. W. Taylor called the science of management.31
Standardization and that application of its general practice, inter-
changeability of parts, are basic for quantity production at low unit cost.
The principle is not new; the Dutch shipbuilders of the late 17th century
excelled in cheapness and rapidity of ship construction by using essen-
tially the same method as that adopted in the recent war-time production
of fabricated ships; Mandelay in England and Eli Whitney in the United
States at the beginning of the 19th century were exploiting the use of
machine tooled, interchangeable parts for relatively large scale produc-
tion. The application of the general principle to processes and products
is as yet far from its full effectiveness, but it has become an essential
element in practically all branches of modern American industry and is
supported and furthered by the agencies of the federal government, such
as the Bureau of Standards and the Division of Simplified Practice, both
operating under the Department of Commerce.
Another factor in this broad movement has been the intensification
of scientific research. Though the realm of such investigation includes
the origination of new products and the utilization of wastes, scientific
research has made outstanding contributions to the mechanization of
industry. From the leaders in this field, the laboratories of the General
Electric Company, the American Telephone and Telegraph Company,
26 Recent Economic Changes, op. ciL, vol. II, pp. 446-462.
27 Mills, op. cit.
28 Unpublished data of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
29 For index number on coal production, see Chap. II.
30 See Chap. II.
31 The Principles of Scientific Management, New York and London, 1911.
[ 235 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the General Motors Company and other concerns — which together
expend many millions of dollars solely on research and experimentation —
have come a series of new devices to economize labor and speed the
conversion of raw materials into consumable goods. Indeed, one of the
most promising new developments in American industry since the war
is the new respect for science — even for pure research — on the part of
the business public. In 1927 the National Research Council listed 999
research agencies, company, joint, consulting and trade association
laboratories and research services in universities cooperating with
industries.32
From organized research in the physical sciences, American industry
is gradually beginning to widen its use of scientific research in the field
of the social sciences. Statistical departments began to be more widely
organized by industry immediately after the experience of the war;
this movement was set back temporarily in the depression of 1921, but
has since been growing. Research is extending into labor management,
industrial psychology, sales management and advertising. But i» the
next book of American economic history, now opening, it is to be hoped
that the record will tell of much more scientific intelligence brought to
bear on the complexities of business problems than has been characteristic
in the past.
Though since the war the study of improved methods of management
has progressed far beyond the scope envisaged before the war by F. W.
Taylor and is now directed with new emphasis to personnel and to market-
ing, it has still found its chief field in the improvement of mechanization
in a broad sense. New methods for " routinizing " industry, such as
operating budgets and inventory control, have been successfully applied.
But while the concepts and methods of good management are fairly
widely diffused and the rank and file of American industrialists are held
to be more open minded in the exchange of information and in the
adoption of approved new practices than those of other countries, there
still remains too wide a spread within industries and between industries.33
The stresses and strains of the period since 1921, with great variations in
the economic pressure on industries and regions, have produced no
uniformity of good practice. If one of the best informed observers, H. S.
Dennison, found the management situation "spotty" in 1928, what is
it likely to be when the country emerges from the depression of more
recent years? Some, perhaps many, industrialists will have jettisoned
promising experts and whole personnel departments. The deepening pres-
sure will necessarily tend to overemphasize economies in the cost of
32 See H. S. Dennison's survey of "Management" in Recent Economic Changes, op, cit.,
vol. II, p. 499.
33 Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., vol. II, p. 546.
[ 236 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
production, to exalt process invention at the expense of product inven-
tion and to neglect those humanizing internal agencies for the better-
ment of industrial relations which have been so promising a feature of the
post-war factory system.
Localization of Industry. — The expansion of industry since the war
and the keen struggle for markets have set up new or intensified regional
competition. That of southern cotton mills with the older establishments
of New England dates back to the pre-war era, of course, but since the
war the dislocation of northern manufacture has become more marked.
The southern enterprises grew in number and in capacity to handle the
production of superior goods. Aided by lower wages, by the laxity of
labor laws — especially as regards night work — and substantially un-
trammeled by labor union organizations, they were able to force the
closing of many northern mills. In some cases this meant the termination
of institutions generations old; in others it involved the transfer of the
machinery and the movable sections of the organization to the more
favorable southern area, leaving unemployed workers behind. In some-
what similar manner, the shoe manufacturers of Lynn, Haverhill and
other New England cities have been confronted with increased com-
petition of shoe production in St. Louis and Minneapolis. Shoe manu-
facture in New England has even longer traditions than cotton cloth
production for it dates back to the time when English handicraftsmen
began the fabrication of footwear in the small Massachusetts towns.
Its evolution on a factory basis had been slower than that of its sister
industry, but up to the end of the 19th century it seemed firmly rooted
in New England soil. In other branches of manufacture, such as steel,
wood working and heavy chemicals, somewhat comparable shifts are
to be observed, with the result that industrial activity has become more
widely dispersed through the United States than ever before. A careful
study of locational factors for each industry and for each region would
be required to understand this complex movement. While some industries
or branches of them are moving closer to the great consuming centers,
others are moving away. And a continued phase of the zoning process,
westward and southward, in the movement of the American Industrial
Revolution is here apparent.
Although it is impossible to present a complete statistical exhibit
of the extent and variety of this regional movement in American in-
dustry, the data on the geographical shift of manufacturing industries
between 1919 and 1929 throw considerable light on the nature of the
movement.34 The large losses in the New England states and the gains
in the south Atlantic and east south central region roughly measure the
major shift in the localization of the various divisions of the textile
34 On the associated population shifts, see Chap. I.
[ 237 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 11. — CHANGES IN NUMBER OF WAGE EARNERS IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES,
1919-1929°
Geographic division-
Percent change in
number of wage
earners, 1919-1929
Geographic division
Percent change in
number of wage
earners, 1919-1929
United States
— 1 8
South Atlantic
+ 11 6
East South Central
+14 8
New England
— 18 7
West South Central
+ 44
Middle Atlantic
-10.8
Mountain
— 6 2
East North Central
+ 6.1
Pacific
+ 83
West North Central
— 5 1
0 United States Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures (biennial).
industry in this country. Within the regions, moreover, the extent of
the movement is most striking. Thus while the number of wage earners
in the Massachusetts manufacturing industry declined 21.9 percent,
their number increased 33 percent in North Carolina and 28.6 percent in
Georgia. The growth of industry, measured by the number of wage
earners, in the east north central states was in large part attributable
to the development of the automobile industry during this period. For
while the entire region recorded an increase in wage earners of 6 percent,
their numbers in Indiana and Michigan rose by 13 percent.
Under the severe competitive conditions which prevail during a
long depression characterized by falling prices and continuous efforts
to reduce cost, the movement from high to low cost areas of production
is stimulated. Certainly since 1930 producers in the cotton textile, cloth-
ing, hosiery and shoe industries have taken advantage of more favorable
labor conditions and lower rents and taxes with the result that a migra-
tion of major proportions to small towns has in these industries been
under way for some time. Only, in fact, since the middle of 1931, when
drastic readjustments in labor and overhead costs and in rents began
to be made in the larger cities, was this movement from the established
centers probably arrested.
V. BUSINESS ORGANIZATION AND COMBINATION
The domination of American business by the large corporation
and the growth in the scale of industrial operations, exemplified in the
development of methods of mass production, selling and the like, has
long been an observed tendency in American economic organization.
Since 1920, partly as the result of the operation of slow traditional forces
and partly because of factors peculiar to this latest period, the move-
ment toward the centralization of business control, toward the com-
bination of business enterprise and toward further increase in the size
of typical industrial units has received considerable impetus and has
[ 238 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
revealed itself in the creation of formidable new problems in the private
and social control of business and in the aggravation of old ones.
Scale of Industrial Operations. — Important as a knowledge of the
size of typical industrial units is for the proper understanding of future
trends in industrial relations, of the requirements for capital expenditure
and of the nature of the issues of social control, the facts furnished by
government agencies on the question are far from illuminating. Data
published by the United States Census of Manufactures show that rela-
tively small industrial establishments continue greatly to predominate
in number and that the average number of wage earners per establish-
ment increased between 1914 and 1929 by less than two workers per
establishment. More enlightening as to scale of production are the data
for the distribution of establishments according to number of employees,
use of power or value of output. These figures are not yet available for
the Census of Manufactures of 1929, but the earlier evidence, summarized
by Willard Thorp,35 indicates a decided trend toward larger units of
production. In 1923 the establishments which employed more than 250
wage earners were less than 4 percent of all establishments but they em-
ployed over half of the industrial wage earners. Thorp's study of the cen-
tral offices owning two or more establishments revealed the fact that over
20,000 establishments, subsidiary to larger manufacturing organizations,
employed at least one-third of all wage earners in manufacturing.
The Trend toward Combination. — While numerous reasons have
from time to time been advanced to account for the tendency toward
business combinations, there can be little doubt that it originates in
the desire for stability. Particularly during the decade of the 1920's
and even in the course of the current depression, attempts at consolida-
tion or understandings or the actual merger of independent business
units were in the main aimed to limit the vicissitudes and uncertainties
of uncontrolled competitive business. Efforts directed toward the regula-
tion of private, competitive business, in earlier periods of American
history carried on surreptitiously by business men, have now grown
into ambitious programs, sponsored by many business leaders, for the
thoroughgoing regulation of private enterprise in the interest of stability
in operation and regularity in employment. Although it is true that
private business has by no means demonstrated its capacity to stabilize
industry and, what is more important, to come to terms with the public
as to standards of service and price, the fact remains that the goal of
stability through consolidation and agreement is now more widely
accepted by business than ever before and that it is destined to play a
dominant role in affecting the trend and purposes of business organiza-
tion in the next years.
35 Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., pp. 168-9.
f 239 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Coupled with the need for stability and certainty is the attempt
to eliminate waste and reduce costs of operation through consolidation.
Mergers in the field of retail trade, which are essentially a post-war
development, were entered into mainly to produce savings in operating
costs, to eliminate duplication and to reap the benefits from the cen-
tralized purchase of the products of manufacturers and wholesalers.
Many of the recent vertical combinations between manufacturer and
retailer have been designed, therefore, not only to insure the producer
more stable operations through his control over his outlet, but even more
to effect savings in selling costs. How much has been accomplished in
either direction it is impossible to determine at a time when the volume
of retail business has steadily declined for two years and when both
wholesale and retail prices have pursued the most erratic courses. The
logic, however, which promoted the early consolidations in the retail
industry is now stronger than ever and may be expected to lead to the
continuance of the combination movement in this field of business
under conditions more favorable than the present.
However potent these internal economic reasons for combination
may have been, it must be admitted that much of the incentive to the
movement is to be found in the extraordinarily favorable financial con-
ditions which for ten years facilitated the organization of mammoth
corporations, the exchange of new securities for old and the raising of
additional investment funds. The plethora of funds seeking investment
in the United States between 1923 and 1929, the apparently insatiable
appetite of the public for securities, the large banking profits involved
in the flotation of new security issues and the very long duration of
the period of rising security prices, represented an irresistible com-
bination of circumstances which hastened, where it did not occasion,
the gathering together of independent businesses into consolidated
corporations and other controlling organizations.
Much of the centralization in the control of business in this period was
achieved by the outright merger of independent firms and subsequently
by the unified management of the consolidated company. But in this
era, as in the past, control was wielded by a variety of indirect methods,
the most important of which was the holding company. This is an old
institution in American corporate history but in the past decade it had an
enormous development, particularly as an instrument of control in the
public utility business, and also to a lesser but important extent in the
railway and banking business as well.
Mergers. — The full extent of the merger movement is not recorded.
A compilation of figures on mergers and acquisitions by Willard Thorp36
36 Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., pp. 181-188, and American Economic Review,
Supplement, March, 1931, vol. XXI, pp. 77-89.
[ 240 \
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
shows that it is no misnomer to characterize the post-war decade as the
era of consolidations. The record of over 1,200 mergers in manufacturing
and mining between 1919 and 1928, involving a net disappearance of
over 6,000 independent enterprises by the end of 1928 and some 2,000
more by the end of 1930, is far from a complete record of mergers in all
fields. Over 4,000 enterprises among public utilities were absorbed in
the same period before 1929 and nearly 1,800 bank mergers caused the
disappearance of an unrecorded but probably larger number of banks.
Many consolidations have taken place in other fields, such as the move-
ment toward vertical integration in the motion picture industry from
film producer to chains of theaters, and the development of chains of
retail stores with their extraordinary increase of sales since the war. To
meet the new competition in the retail field, the older leaders in large
scale retailing, the department stores and the great mail order houses,
TABLE 12.— THE EXTENT OF MERGERS, 1919-1930
Year
Manufacturing and mining0
Public
utilities6
Banking*
Number of
mergers
recorded
Number of
concerns
merged
Number of
concerns
acquired
Net number
of concerns
disappearing
Number of
firms
disappearing
Number
of
mergers
1919
89
173
89
67
67
95
292
474
373
220
218
263
235
459
203
156
160
200
438
760
487
309
311
368
22
15
74
285
426
580
80
77
104
125
120
124
1920
1921
1922 $*/. .m.
1923
1924
Total
1925
580
1,840
1,413
2,673 /
1,402
630
121
139
207
221
333
597
678
687
342
398
399
572
554
856
870
1,058
402
1,029
911
<*585
120
154
259
1926
1927
1928
Total
688
2,295
1,711
3,338 v
2,927
1,793
1929
1,245
•747
1930
Total
Total 1919-1930
1,268
4,135
3,124
6,011
4,329
8,003 v
0 Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., p. 184; Willard Thorp, "Persistence of the Merger Movement," American
Economic Review, Supplement, March, 1931, vol. XXI, pp. 77-89.
6 Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., p. 187.
c U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Report, 1927, p. 31. The figures are for the number of mergers affecting
capital resources of member banks. The number of banks affected is, of course, considerably greater than the
number of mergers.
* Estimated after December 10.
• First nine months.
f 241 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
have been changing in structure, the department stores commencing to
join in chains and the mail order houses themselves to operate retail chain
stores.
Combination in Retail Trade.37 — The business combination move-
ment, in former periods a feature of the manufacturing and public
utility industries illustrated by the establishment of the historic con-
solidations in the oil, steel, packing and telephone industries, in this
latest era spread rapidly into the areas of merchandising and banking.
Although the retail chain store and the large mail order houses antedated
the post-war years, it was only then that the wholesale replacement
of the independent store by the centrally controlled and managed cor-
poration took place. Partly in response to the recognition of the existence
of great wastes arising from duplication in the business of retail mer-
chandising and partly out of the purely fortuitous circumstances of
TABLE 13. — SHARE OF TOTAL RETAIL BUSINESS DONE BY CHAIN*" STORES, 19296
Type of business
Total
number of
stores in
United
States
Total
number of
stores
operated
by chains
Percent
number of
chain
stores are
of total
stores
Total net
sales of
all stores
(millions)
Total net
sales of
chain
stores
(millions)
Percent
chain-
store sales
of total
sales
Food
Drug
497,715
57,716
57,661
3,585
12
6
$11,311
1,684
$3,063
312
27
19
Tobacco
33,381
3 265
10
417
127
30
Variety
11,620
5,444
47
869
810
93
Apparel . .
112 960
16,753
15
4,315
1,170
27
Department and dry goods
General merchandise
Furniture
46,000
12,643
25,070
3,904
2,661
992
8
21
4
5,395
876
1,524
772
226
208
14
26
14
Musical instruments
17,473
663
4
578
85
15
Hardware
26 555
458
2
862
32
4
0 Consisting of 4 stores and over.
» Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1931, op. cit., pp. 322-34; and U. S. Congress, Sen. Doc., no. 31,
72d Cong., 1st. Sess., p. 33.
prospective real estate profits and bankers' gains, the creation of great
business combinations in retailing spread from one branch of mer-
chandising to another. By 1930 sectional and national chains were
transacting practically one-fifth of the total retail trade of the country,38
but in many retail fields the proportion was much higher. The disparity
between the number of stores operated in chains and the volume of their
business indicates the difference in the average size of unit of the chain
37 For a discussion of chain stores in relation to consumption, see Chap. XVII. On
marketing in rural areas, see Chap. X.
38 United States Bureau of the Census, Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930 Census
of Distribution, figures cover 1929.
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
stores and the independent retail stores. In many instances, also, the
bulk of the business is carried on by some four or five of the largest
chains.
The importance of these dominating companies and their relative
stability through much of this severe depression is shown in Table 14.
While some of the larger chain store companies have had difficulty in
weathering the storms of the last several years, have effected reorganiza-
tions by dropping unprofitable units, have in some cases even considered
TABLE 14. — PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN CHAIN STORE SALES, 1927-1931"
Type of business and firm
Percent change
Year
1927-1928
Year
1928-1929
Year
1929-1930
9 mos.
1930-1931
Mail order +15.7
Sears Roebuck +19 . 0
Montgomery Ward +14 . 8
National Bellas Hess 0.0
Food +28.1
Great Atlantic & Pacific +27.8
Kroger +28.6
Safeway +48.5
First National +17 . 7
MacMarr +30.9
National Tea +46. 1
H. C. Bohack +5.8
Grand Union +6.4
Daniel Reeves +8.9
Variety +11-5
J. C. Penney +16.3
F. W. Woolworth +5.3
S. S. Kresge +10.2
S. H. Kress +12.0
F. W. Grand-Silver +28.9
McCrory + 4.5
W. T. Grant +27.3
J. J. Newberry +36.8
Drug +47.2
Walgreen +50.2
People's Drug +39. 5
Restaurants — 4.0
Childs - 8.5
Waldorf - .4
Thompson +1.7
Melville Shoe +26.7
Western Auto Supply +11 .5
+ 24.2
+ 26.2
+ 24.7
+ 8.2
+ 20.1
+ 8.3
+ 38.2
+106.7
+ 41.8
+ 10.6
+ 5.0
+ 10.3
+ 15.5
+ 7.0
+ 10.8
+ 18.7
+ 5.5
+ 6.1
+ 5.3
+ 27.7
+ 8.8
+ 18.3
+ 34.8
+ 45.5
+ 48.5
+ 37.0
+ 7.3
+ 4.6
+ 11.9
+ 7.9
+ 13.1
+ 27.5
-11.9
-13.1
- 6.8
-30.0
+ .1
+ 1.1
- 6.8
+ 2.7
+ .5
+ 2.5
- 5.5
+15.4
+ 3.2
+ .7
- 2.4
- 8.0
- 4.5
- 3.8
+ 1.2
+24.4
- 3.3
+ 8.3
+ 8.6
+10.0
+10.8
+ 7.8
- 4.7
- 5.7
- 2.5
- 5.1
+12.3
-13.0
-11.5
- 7.4
-17.9
- 4.0
- 2.2
- 4.6
- 5.4
- 2.6
- 7.4
- 9.1
+11.7
- 3.0
- 7.9
- 1.7
- 9.5
- .8
- 1.1
+ 1.2
- 1.2
- .5
+ 8.3
+ 5.7
+ 5.7
+ 6.1
+ 4.4
- 6.6
-10.0
- 1.9
- 5.4
- 5.8
- 9.4
0 Compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and reprinted in various issues of the Commercial and Financial Chron-
icle. The data are for fiscal years. In several cases the fiscal does not coincide with the calendar year.
[ 243 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
merging with other chains and in still others have been forced to liquidate,
their financial strength and their ability to buy on favorable terms have
exposed them to lesser casualties than those suffered by the independent
retailer. In fact, the growth of the chain stores and their methods of
doing business encouraged, in the later years of the decade, the organiza-
tion of voluntary chains, particularly in the grocery trade, which make
exclusive purchase arrangements with wholesale grocers or with groups
of them. The American Institute of Food Distribution reported as of
May 1, 1930 that it had record of 273 of such groups with a total member-
ship of 34,311 retailers.39
Combinations in Banking. — The relations of banking to business are
so universal, intimate and sensitive that developments in the organiza-
tion and practice of banking possess unusual importance. The very
large number of banks in the United States, the small size of many of
them and the deep sectional concern in this country over the independence
of local banks have for a long time constituted an invitation toward
centralization in the face of powerful political and economic resistance.
Since the war the instability of banks in agricultural areas, the vulner-
ability of the small bank to rapid changes in economic conditions and
the contagion of the combination movement in other business fields
TABLE 15. — BRANCH SYSTEMS AND BRANCHES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1900-1931°
Number of branches
Year
with branches
In head office city
Outside head office
city
Total branches
1900
79
25
86
111
1905
188
135
207
342
1910
292
271
277
548
1915
897
435
350
785
1920
1921
1922
530
547
610
773
904
,156
507
550
644
1,280
1,454
1,800
1923
671
,827
727
2,054
1924
706
514
785
2 299
1925
719
724
801
2 525
1926
742
877
824
2 701
1927
788
958
954
2 912
1928
1929
773
763
2,140
2,275
995
1,075
3,135
3,350
1930
749
2,385
1,131
3,516
1981
722
2 299
1 164
3 463
0 For the years 1900 to 1923 inclusive the figures are not as of any uniform month. For 1924 they are as of
June, for 1925 and 1926 as of December, and for 1926 to 1931 inclusive they are as of June. These data were
compiled from unpublished material in the possession of the authors.
39 See unpublished manuscript by M. T. Copeland on Marketing Factors in the Business
Recession 1929-1930, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[ 244 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
produced a great acceleration in the tendency toward larger banking
institutions and toward the centralization of control.
Branch banking has received particular attention in recent years as
one means of providing a banking system which can effect greater equali-
zation and more efficient utilization of the credit resources of the country.
The future trend in banking organization would seem to be in the direc-
tion of the multiplication of branch banking systems and liberalization
of the laws respecting them. This conclusion is supported by the great
rapidity with which branch banking has grown in the past decade. Before
1921 the movement was confined principally to state banks, but since
then national banks have expanded in the same way.
While the smallest independent banks of the country are found in
the rural areas and towns, branch banking has developed principally in
the larger cities, where size and prestige as much as safety have been
important factors in the spirited competition for business which has
notably characterized American banking since the war. About two-thirds
of the branches established are located in the city in which the parent
bank is situated. Over 60 percent of the branch banks are in cities of
100,000 and over; and the principal branch banking centers are New York
City and Detroit. Only in the state of California has statewide branch
banking had any considerable development.
TABLE 16. — BRANCH BANKS BY SIZE OF CITY, JUNE 30, 1931°
Population of city
In head office city
Outside head office
city
Total
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Under 500
2
0.1
185
169
212
139
106
92
47
60
154
15.9
14 5
18.2
12.0
9.1
7.9
4.0
5.2
13.2
187
169
219
145
117
121
117
191
2,197
5.4
4.9
6.3
4.2
3.4
3.5
3.4
5.5
63.4
500 to 1,000
1 000 to 2,500
7
6
11
29
70
131
2,043
.3
.3
.5
1.2
3.0
5.7
88.9
2,500 to 5,000
5,000 to 10,000
10 000 to 25 000
25,000 to 50 000
50,000 to 100 000
100,000 and over
Total
2,209
100.0
1,164
100.0
3,463
100.0
0 Compiled from unpublished material in the possession of the authors.
Group and chain banking represents the control over separate institu-
tions through stock ownership either by individuals or groups of indi-
viduals or by holding companies. Of the two forms of centralization, chain
banking is the older, but group banking, essentially holding company
control, represents at this time the major tendency in American banking.
f 245 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
On June 30, 1931, there were in operation in the United States 288 chain
and group systems, controlling 2,047 banks with aggregate loans and
investments of $13,600,000,000. These systems covered 10 percent of all
banks and 31 percent of the loans and investments of all banks in the
country.40 Since branch banking is prohibited in many American states and
restricted in others, group and chain banking has had its greatest growth
in precisely those states.41
Bank mergers and consolidations though perhaps less important than
the trend toward group and chain banking have nevertheless exhibited
the same accelerated pace since the war. Undertaken for the same reasons
as motivated the promoters of branch and group banking, the need for
mergers has unquestionably been increased since 1929 by the expedient
of absorbing weak banks which are on the verge of failure into the stronger
institutions of the same community. Bank consolidations, comparatively
TABLE 17.— NUMBER OF BANK MERGERS, 1900-1930°
Year
Number of
mergers
Year
Number of
mergers
Year
Number of
mergers
1900
20
1911
115
1921
293
1901
41
1912
135
1922
383
1908
50
1913
118
1923
319
1908
37
1914
145
1924
365
1904
63
1915
146
1925
359
1905
69
1916
136
1926
452
1906
56
1917
125
1927
553
1907
54
1918
113
1928
512
1908
97
1919
178
1929
601
1909
80
1920
172
1930
735
1910
126
0 Data for 1900-1920 taken from Banking Inquiry — 1925, vol. VI, prepared under the direction of H.
Parker Willis and filed with the U. S. Senate Committee on Banking and Currency. Later data compiled from
unpublished material in the possession of the authors.
rare before the war, rose sharply in the depression of 1921 and have
increased constantly ever since. In this movement, also, all types of
banks — national, state, trust companies, stock and mutual savings and
private banks — have participated.
Holding Companies. — As an instrument for the concentration of
business control, the holding company, defined as "any company which
holds securities in any other company or companies" in an amount suf-
ficient to ensure control,42 deserves special mention because of the great
strides it has made in recent years and because of the peculiar problems
40 See footnote to Table 16.
41 U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bulletin, December, 1930, vol. XVI, p.
811.
42 Bonbright, James C., and Means, Gardiner C., The Holding Company, New York,
1932, p. 7.
[ 246 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
its development has created. Like other forms of business consolidation,
the holding company dates back in American history. Since the war it
has had an enormous development primarily in the public utility industry,
but substantially also in transportation and banking as well. The popular-
ity of the holding company and the public significance of its growth are
ascribed by students of the question to two of its features. It is, in the
first place, "the most effective device that has ever been invented for
combining under a single control and management the properties of two
or more hitherto independent corporations. It has, therefore, made
possible the development of giant systems of business enterprise at a
pace far more rapid than would have been feasible by any other method of
concentration."43 And in the second place it is "largely, though not
TABLE 18. — PROPORTION OF TOTAL UTILITY SERVICES THAT ARE RENDERED BY THE FORTY
LARGEST PUBLIC UTILITY SYSTEMS, 1930a
Type of service and proportion rendered
Type of company rendering service
Electric, percent of all
electric power output
(kilowatt hours)
Gas, percent of total
gas sales (cubic feet)
Traction, percent of
traction service
(passengers)
Subsidiaries of pure holding com-
pany
72
42
31
Subsidiaries of operating company
Independent operating companies. .
5
12
2
2
8
18
Total for forty companies. . .
Service by other companies. .
89
11
46
54
57
43
Total for nation
100
100
100
0 Bonbright and Means, op. cit., p. 95.
completely, exempt from restrictions to which other business corporations
have been subject, . . . partly because it is such a new device, partly
because it is protected from interference by our traditions of constitutional
law, and partly because it often extends beyond the jurisdiction of any
one state."44 Because of these characteristics, the device of the holding
company assumes at this time, when the issues involved in the public
control over business are most confused and difficult, added significance.
The largest, most rapid and most perfect development of the holding
company has taken place in public utilities, especially in the electric light
and power and gas business. Ten groups of systems do approximately
three quarters of the electric light and power business of the country and
sixteen holding company systems control 45 percent of the country's gas
43 Ibid., p. 4.
44 Ibid., p. 6.
247
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
output.45 The degree to which this control is established in the electric
and gas industries and the relative freedom from control of the less
important traction industry is shown in Table 18.
In the railroad industry, the holding company, checked by the North-
ern Securities decision of 1904,46 is of much more recent origin. It may in
its present form be said to date from the passage of the Transportation
Act of 1920 which placed the security issues of railroad operating com-
panies under a measure of control by the Interstate Commerce Commis-
sion. The organization of the Pennroad Corporation and the Van
Sweringen group of holding companies marked the extension of this
device into the railroad business. By 1930, 20 percent of the entire rail-
way mileage was under the ultimate control of holding companies.47
With the railroads, as in the case of the power industry, certainly a major
purpose of the holding company has been the avoidance or mitigation of
public control. "In the field of the railways . . . it is doubtful whether
any one of the great holding companies and investment companies which
have recently been created by several of the rival systems would ever
have been thought of aside from their usefulness as a means of escaping
the guiding hand of the Interstate Commerce Commission/*48
The latest type of holding company, which is practically a product
of the nineteen twenties and born of the desire for control and the public
avidity for securities, is the investment trust. Although the original pur-
pose of the investment trust was the management of investment funds
of diverse individuals, the abrupt expansion of the funds of American
investment trusts to roughly $3,000,000,000 in less than ten years en-
couraged in some trusts the idea of employing these funds for the purchase
of corporate control. The evil days upon which the investment trusts
have fallen as a result of the steadily declining security markets since
1929 make the future of this form of holding company uncertain. On the
other hand, the consolidation of existing trusts, the liquid condition of
some of them and the low prices at which control can be bought would
appear to encourage the further entrance of the surviving investment
trusts into this field of business consolidation.
No simple summary will suffice to describe the extent of concentration
prevailing in the United States in 1930. An interesting attempt to do so
has been made by Gardiner C. Means. The two hundred largest non-
financial corporations in 1927 (45 railroads, 58 public utilities and 97
industrials), he finds, had gross assets of over 67 billion dollars.49 This
45 Ibid., p. 91-95.
46 United States v. Northern Securities Company, 175 U. S. 211.
47 Bonbright and Means, op, cit., p. 228.
48 Ibid., p. 7.
49 Means, Gardiner C., "The Growth in the Relative Importance of the Large Corpora-
tion in American Economic Life," American Economic Review, March, 1931, vol. XXI, pp.
10-42.
[ 248 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
represented control of almost one-half of all corporate assets, excluding
those of financial corporations. Of 573 companies, having securities
regularly quoted on the New York Stock Exchange, 130 had gross assets
in each case of over 100 million dollars in 1929, totaling over 80 percent
of the assets of all the 573 companies. The growth in assets of the great
corporations appears to have been between two and three times as rapid
as that of all other non-financial concerns. Less than a quarter of the
increase in assets apparently has come from mergers or consolidations;
somewhat more than a quarter may be calculated as corporate savings;
but more than half is new capital obtained in the open market. The steady
growth in number of stockholders in these great enterprises betokens the
degree of public confidence which this corporate development enjoyed,
a confidence which became deliriously speculative at the time of the
great bull market of 1928-1929, in which the shares of these leading
corporations led in the upward movement. In the great drop or series of
drops in security prices following the stock market crash of October,
1929, the public has scanned even these leviathans of industry with a
somewhat disillusioned eye. This analysis of the trend toward consolida-
tion Means concludes on a note of warning prophecy. "If," he says, "the
more rapid rate of growth from 1924 to 1927 were maintained for the
next twenty years, 80.5 percent [of all non-financial corporate wealth]
would be held by the large 200 [corporations] in 1950. If the indicated
rates of growth of the large corporations and of the national wealth were
to be effective in the future, within 20 years virtually, half of the national
wealth would be owned by the 200 giant corporations."50
The Problem of Public Control*1 — These colossal efforts of business
itself to achieve internal and private control over the operations of busi-
ness have in recent years given rise to renewed public interest in the
regulation of private enterprise in the social interest. The advance of
concentration has in each field of industry raised the issue of the problem
of adequate public control. The conflict over public utility rates is again
being waged with more than traditional vigor; and the amenability of the
utility holding company to public regulation has only recently become
the subject of general concern. Unregulated control of banks by chain
and group banking has already resulted in congressional banking inquiry
and in the submission of regulatory legislation to the Congress of 1932.52
The chain store movement has produced widespread local agitation
against its effect in displacing the independent retailer and has even
brought about the passage of local prohibitory laws.53 And strong protest
60 Ibid., p. 35.
61 On business and financial law, see Chap. XXVIII.
62 Senator Carter Glass's "Banking Law of 1932"; see Congressional Digest, February,
1932, vol. XI, pp. 56-57.
"See Chap. XXVIII.
f 249 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
against what were regarded as the unsound practices of investment
trusts has forced the consideration of tentative measures of control over
the operations of this newest type of financial institution.
The dominant public opinion of business in the United States unques-
tionably looks to the continuance of the consolidation movement in all
or any of its forms as the source of the solution of the major problems of
competitive business. Even before the unsettlements created by the
depression, the trend toward the regulation of price, production and other
business practices had become stronger than it has ever been before in
this country. Added to the unusual number of outright consolidations,
mergers, and varieties of holding companies, the period since 1920 was
featured by the organization of a multitude of informal price controls
and trade associations hoping to achieve by gentlemen's agreements, in
part at least, the goals and benefits of actual concentration in ownership
and management. Although the effect of these measures of private regula-
tion was probably to render areas of our competitive business system
more inflexible than they should have been, to sustain some prices at
excessively high levels, to encourage the abnormal expansion of produc-
tive plant equipment and hence to aggravate the existing instabilities in
the system, it is clear that the business community hopes to achieve greater
stability and certainty not by the abandoning of these devices of control
but by extending and strengthening them. The prevailing organized
opposition to our anti-trust legislation, the efforts during the past decade
to persuade the United States Department of Justice to sanction the
exchange of statistical information among the members of trade associa-
tions and the continuance of the combination movement since 1929 are
straws that show which way the wind is blowing. The announcement,
finally, of the Swope plan, a proposal essentially for the centralized
control of areas of industry through the medium of trade associa-
tions endowed with authority and the power to enforce their deci-
sions,54 is the latest evidence of the desire of industry to appease
public criticism but at the same time to pursue the course of business
consolidation.
On the whole question of business organization and social control,
the general attitude of the American public is now in a state of confusion.55
It is, however, reasonably clear that the prohibitions of anti-trust legis-
lation are no longer considered the panaceas they were held to be during
the administration of Theodore Roosevelt. While we are still far from
discarding such legislation, it is nevertheless true that our faith in its
potency has greatly weakened; and it may be no exaggeration to state
64 Swope, Gerard, The Swope Plan: Details, Criticisms, Analysis, The Business Bourse,
New York, 1931.
66 See discussion of organized groups and governments in Chap. XXIX.
[ 250 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
that the dire consequences of instability have done much to create a more
sympathetic attitude toward combination.
The most striking, and thus far perhaps the only, definitive reversal
of public opinion was expressed in the railroad legislation of 1920. His-
torically the railroads had led in the movement for consolidation by the
accumulation of railroad properties into systems. The further develop-
ment of this original impetus was checked in 1904 when in the Northern
Securities case a combination of two great railroad systems was for-
bidden.56 But by 1920 the public had accepted the idea that further
consolidation, under the supervision of a powerful federal body, the Inter-
state Commerce Commission, was not only permissible but advantageous,
and the Commission was instructed to work out a scheme. The principle
of railroad competition was retained in the Act and plans for amalgama-
tion of competitive super-systems have been drawn and redrawn, but
the jealous rivalries of the existing great systems have seriously compli-
cated the inherent difficulties of the task so that after twelve years it
remains undone. The English solution of the problem, a regional amalga-
mation in four great railroad companies, was simpler and more expedi-
tious. A considerable amount of competition is, under that plan, in any
case retained. Not only do the regional systems compete at their borders
and by penetrating cross lines, but the new period of mechanization has
produced new competition in transportation. The motor truck has taken
away some freight and the automobile has alarmingly reduced the number
of railroad passengers.57
As unsettled as many of the elements of the future of business organ-
ization and of public control in the rail transportation industry are, it is
substantially certain that the way has at least been paved for further
consolidation and that more effective tools of social control will be forged
in the process. In the public utility industry, likewise, the advance toward
centralization already made may be expected to predetermine the trend
of the immediate future; and the problems in this field will be concerned
with rate regulation as in the past, with defining the boundaries of federal
and state control, and, in connection with the exercise of regulative
measures over the activities of public utility holding companies, with the
setting up of controls over security issues and with the redefinition of the
relations between operating and holding companies. The revelations of
many of the weaknesses inherent in our highly decentralized banking
system, dramatized by the unprecedented number of bank failures since
1920, will unquestionably strengthen the prevailing efforts to liberalize
our branch banking laws, to effect closer affiliation between banks and
the Federal Reserve System and to tighten the whole machinery of
66 175 U. S. 211.
57 On the need for integrating the transportation agencies, see Chap. IV.
r 251 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
public bank examination and regulation. In the highly diversified field
of manufacturing industry; in the crucial business of investment banking
which is now so much the subject of public discussion; and in retailing,
where concentration is a relatively recent development, the case is not
so clear. The most that can be said is that a reversal of the trends of the
past ten years is not to be expected. The public interest in stability and
the conviction of business that stability can be achieved by combination
will no doubt further promote the consolidation movement. Whatever
forms business chooses to effect its ends, the public's preoccupation will
be with the invention and improvement of regulatory machinery,
burdened with more puzzling and difficult problems of social control
than ever before.58
VI. BANKING AND CREDIT
Under conditions so complex, novel and temporary as those prevailing
in the United States and throughout the world since 1914, no simple
characterization and estimate of trends in banking and credit policy and
practice are possible. In a period of the flotation and absorption of huge
war loans and the persistence of large public debts; of rapid and vast
changes in the amount and composition of industrial output; of extreme
fluctuations in all groups of prices; of the flow, in so brief a space of time,
of an unprecedented volume of funds into plant and equipment, foreign
war and reconstructions uses and into the capital requirements of business
combinations, the task of discerning the true sequence of events, of
tracing the sources of error in policy and practice and of discovering
guides for future conduct is obviously one of extraordinary difficulty.
The events of the last few years have disclosed more forcibly than
ever the necessity of delicate adjustment between the multifarious proc-
esses of business and the machinery for the regulation of credit and
currency. In some way the excessive multiplication of credit may, and
does, convert prosperity into depression. The failure to exercise effective
control over the issue and use of credit may, and does, result in the diver-
sion of large amounts of credit into speculative enterprises which are
bound to breed ultimate collapse. The functions exercised by a banking
system, when it is called upon to act as the fiscal agent of the government,
may inevitably involve pressure to indulge in unsound banking practice.
The commercial policy of countries, designed to protect their people
against the competition of their foreign neighbors, may produce such
dislocations in the foreign exchanges as to endanger the prosperity of all.
68 For a possible clue to the direction which such public experiments in business regu-
lation may take, see dissenting decision rendered March 21, 1932, by Justice Brandeis in
the case of The New State Ice Company of Oklahoma City v. Ernest A. Liebman, 52 Supreme
Court Reporter, p. 371.
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
Unthinking competition among numerous banks, in the quest for business
and profits, may adulterate the investment portfolios of many banking
institutions and weaken the safeguards of the depositor. And ignorant,
inefficient and lax public supervision over the financial institutions of a
country may nullify reasonable standards of regulation imposed upon
banking management by the law.
Several and sometimes all of these conditions prevailed through the
American and foreign banking and financial systems during one or another
of the phases of our war and post-war economic history. The effect of such
banking conditions, when added to the continuance of unsound inter-
national commercial policy and a universal wave of speculative business
activity, has been the world wide depression of the past years, the appal-
ling sequence of bank failures in the United States, the disintegration of
the gold standard throughout the world and a catastrophic decline in
property values of all kinds. So drastic has been this impairment of
existing standards and so far flung have been its consequences, that the
episode has been described by sober commentators as mar king the collapse
of the modern credit system and the beginning of the end of the system of
competitive business. For this state of affairs, also, not a few hold banking
policy ultimately responsible. Although it is clear that much that has
happened since 1914 has been the joint result of commercial, industrial,
fiscal and investment policy, which banking policy might influence but
not direct, the ramifications of financial policy are so pervasive as to make
its consequences crucial in the total situation.
The Course of Credit. — The period from the beginning of the war until
1929 was one of notable expansion in the volume of bank credit, inter-
rupted markedly only once — by the depression of 1921. From June 1914
to June 1918 the volume of loans and investments of all banks increased
53 percent or from approximately 21 to 32 billions. In the next years of
the first post-war boom, their amount increased 30.5 percent or from 32
to 42 billions. As a result of the liquidation of 1921, this volume dropped
back only 4 percent or to roughly 40 billions. But by 1924, a year of
business recession, loans and investments of all banks had expanded
steadily from the already high level of 40 billions to the even higher one
of 45.5 billions.
This trend in the expansion of bank credit thus first accompanied the
extraordinary successive rises in the commodity price levels which have
already been described.59 Beginning with the recovery of business from
the 1921 depression, the increase in bank loans and investments continued
steadily onward and was not halted, except for brief and slight reversals
in trend, until after 1929. In this latest phase of the process of credit
expansion, however, the wholesale prices of commodities failed to register
69 See pp. 225-228.
[ 253]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
wide fluctuations and stood, indeed, in June 1929 not much higher than
they were in the middle of 1924. Comparative price stability of this
nature induced many observers either to disregard the changes in the
volume of bank credit or to regard them as appropriate to the legitimate
needs of business since they produced no observable effect on the prevail-
ing level of prices.
Part, at least, of the explanation of this discrepancy in the movement
of the volume of bank credit and of commodity prices is to be found in the
changes in the types of loans and investments made by the banks of the
TABLE 19. — LOANS AND INVESTMENTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE MEMBER BANKS, 1924-1929°
(Millions of dollars)
Date
Loans and
investments
Loans
Date
Loans and
investments
Loans
June 30, 1924
27,167
19,204
June, 30, 1927 ....
32,756
22,938
Oct. 10, 1924
Dec. 31, 1924
April 6, 1925
June 30, 1925
28,311
28,746
29,046
29,518
19,713
19,933
20,176
20,655
Oct. 10, 1927
Dec. 31, 1927
Feb. 28, 1928
June 30, 1928
33,186
34,247
33,688
35,061
23,227
23,886
23,099
24,303
Sept. 28, 1925
30,176
21,285
Oct. 3, 1928
34,929
24,325
Dec. 81, 1925
30,884
21,996
Dec. 31, 1928
35,684
25,155
April 12 1926
30 819
21,785
March 27 1929
35 393
24 945
June 30 1926
31,184
22,060
June 29 1929
35,711
25 658
Dec. 31, 1926
31,642
22,652
Oct. 4, 1929
35,914
26 165
March 23, 1927
31,949
22,327
« U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Report, 1930, p. 94.
country in the last period of credit expansion. For, as subsequent events
indicated, the character and quality of the loans and investments held
in increasing amount by the banks, were probably more powerful sources
TABLE 20. — LOANS AND INVESTMENTS OF MEMBERS BANKS, 1921-1929°
(Millions of dollars)
As of June 30 —
Investments
Loans on
securities
Loans on urban
real estate6
All other loans
Total loans and
investments
1921
6,002
C4 400
C875
12 844
24 121
1922
7,017
e4,500
cl,100
11 565
24 182
1923
7 757
C4 950
el 350
12 450
26 507
1924
7 963
«5 350
cl 575
12 279
27 167
1925
8 863
6 718
cl 875
12 062
29 518
1926
9,123
7 321
2 161
12 579
31 184
1927
9,818
8 156
2 449
12 333
32 756
1928
10,758
9,068
2,624
12 611
35 061
1929
10,052
10,095
2,760
12,804
35 711
« U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Annual Reports.
b On real estate, other than farm land.
c Partly estimated.
254
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
of strain and weakness in the banking system than the extent of the total
expansion in credit. The composition of the loan portfolios of all member
banks and the relation of investments to loans are shown in Table 20.
It is clear from this exhibit that the banking business in the United
States, as practised by our commercial banks in the past decade, experi-
enced a radical transformation. Commercial loans, which traditionally
constituted the bulk of the business of commercial banking institutions,
were no greater in the exceptionally active year 1929 than in the depres-
sion year 1921. The practice of operating business with low inventories,
universally adopted by American firms as a result of their sad experience
in liquidating the huge inventories of 1919-1920; the unusual cash re-
serves and surpluses accumulated by the large corporations of the coun-
try; and the ease with which business needs could be financed by the sale
of capital stock in these years accounted for the stability in the volume of
commercial loans at a time when the volume of industrial output and
general business activity were increasing by leaps and bounds.
Meanwhile, however, the more speculative and less liquid loans on
securities and on urban real estate together rose nearly 8 billion dollars,
representing almost three-fourths of the total increase in loans and
investments during the period. Diversion of credit into these markets
had the two-fold consequence of financing a prolonged and colossal
speculation and of loading the banks with appreciable assets which are
particularly difficult to liquidate under conditions of declining prices.
From 1922 to 1929, then, the ratio of loans on securities to the total loans
and investments of reporting member banks advanced from 25 to some-
what more than 34 percent; while from 1924 to 1929, the prices of
industrial common stock more than tripled, their index numbers rising
from 65.6 to 216.1 in September, 1929.60 Toward this rise in security
prices, also, the unusual cash balances of private corporations and the
attractive opportunities for lending in the security markets contributed
greatly through the unprecedented expansion of loans to brokers from
private corporations, the well known loans to brokers for the account of
others than banks, which from 1926 to October, 1929 increased from 500
millions to almost 4 billions.
The extent of the growth of bank credit on urban real estate is not
adequately indicated in the available data. There is reason to believe,
indeed, that a considerable and increasing proportion of the commercial
loans made by banks in this period were directly and indirectly loans on
real estate. The tremendous urban and suburban developments, begun
and completed in this decade61 and the continued rise in the assessed
valuation of real property, coupled with the large real estate holdings of
60 Index numbers of industrial common stock prices of the Standard Statistics Company.
61 On the growth of metropolitan communities, see Chap. IX.
F 255 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
banks disclosed since the beginning of the depression, afford convincing
evidence of the magnitude of speculative enterprise in real estate and of
the important role which bank credit played in its unfolding.
Investment expansion has, in the form which it took during this
decade, likewise proved to be a serious weakness in banking policy and
practice. The opportunities for apparently great appreciation in the value
of bonds and the lure of high coupon bonds converted many banks into
investment institutions. The prospects of high yields and large profits
from the turnover of investments filled the portfolios of banks with many
high coupon bonds of foreign governments and private corporations and
with the second, third and fourth grade bonds of American companies.
Moreover the speculative spirit prevailing in the country and the organi-
zation and development by the large city banks of departments for the
sale of security issues made it certain that securities of even low quality
would find a wide market. Securities, consequently, normally regarded as
unfit for banking investment, were bought in large volume by banks of
all sizes and in all parts of the country.
Consumers' Credit.62 — The most spectacular and most novel develop-
ment in the field of credit was the growth after 1920 of a variety of forms
of consumers' borrowing. While this type of credit had always been widely
used in the United States for the purchase of furniture, pianos and the like,
and in the form of many sorts of instalment credit, there is reason to
believe that the amount of such credit was tremendously expanded, both
absolutely and relatively, during the past decade. The initial impetus to
the expansion undoubtedly came from the efforts of the producers of new
commodities such as automobiles, radios and refrigerators to obtain a
wide market for their products. But once the device became widely
employed and its benefits appreciated, it was seized upon as an automatic
measure for the expansion of consumers' purchases and for the mainte-
nance of markets. In reality expansion of consumers' credit involved the
same dangers of the creation of disparities between income and debt as
are encountered in the excessive growth of all credit.
How great the amount of outstanding consumers' credit became at
its peak cannot be precisely estimated. This is in part due to the fact that
the accounting systems of the numerous institutions engaged in one or
another of the many phases of this business are neither standardized,
nor is their publication required. But in larger measure the difficulty
arises from confusion in definition, since such consumers' credit as arises
out of the granting of loans on life insurance policies, not normally
regarded as consumers' credit, constituted in this period an important
element in the total structure of consumers' debt. One student of the
question has estimated that the proportion of total retail sales made on
62 Compare with Chap. XVII.
[ 256 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
credit increased from 10 percent in 1910 to 50 percent in 1929;63 and the
volume of outstanding family credit in 1929 he has placed at more than
eleven billion dollars.
TABLE 21. — CURRENT FAMILY FINANCING IN THE UNITED STATES," 1929
Class of indebtedness
Total amount outstanding
Open account debts
Instalment debts
Short-term cash credit
Life insurance policy loans. . .
Real estate mortgages6
$ 4,500,000,000
2,500,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
Total current family debts.
$11,700,000,000
" Ryan, op. cit., p. 418.
6 Ryan does not include this item in his table, but in a footnote to the table he concludes that "fully $1,000,-
000,000 or more of the real estate mortgages on homes in the United States has been incurred on account of
current household needs ..." Ibid., p. 418.
The Liquidation of Credit. — During the severe depression in business
which began in 1929, the condition of the banking system reflected the
results of the sharp decline in the volume of business and the stupendous
fall in the prices of commodities, securities and real estate. Because of the
character of bank expansion in the years prior to the depression, liquida-
tion pursued a varied course. With the first collapse in the stock market in
October, 1929, the banks found it necessary to take over loans on securities
hitherto financed by others, and the volume of security loans between
June, 1929, and June, 1930, actually increased by 5.6 percent. The slow
realization of the fact that the downward trend in security prices would
be long and great led thereafter to the more rapid liquidation of such loans,
and by December 1931 they amounted to slightly more than 7 billion or
approximately one-third less than their volume in June, 1930. The peculiar
character of the real estate market, likewise, renders the liquidation of
real estate loans a slow and painful process. Property thrown on the
market in large amounts cannot be easily absorbed and causes the
demoralization of prices. The real estate loans of banks, therefore, showed
no decline between 1929 and 1931, but it is probable that they have
dropped rapidly in the past year and that much of the real estate previ-
ously held as collateral by the banks now rests in their investment port-
folios. All other loans, in large part commercial loans, on the other hand
declined at once and continuously. Investments increased from 1929 to
1931, but after the middle of 1931 they were reduced, although invest-
ments by banks in securities issued by the United States government have
since increased. Perhaps the most dramatic change in the period was the
63 Ryan, Franklin W., " Family Finance in the United States," in the Journal of Business
of the University of Chicago, October, 1930, vol. Ill, p. 417.
[257]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
practically total disappearance of loans on securities to brokers by
"others," which had risen by 1929 to 4 billions and which were reported
on March 23, 1932 as only $5,000,000.
Factors Affecting the Volume of Credit. — Changes in the volume of
bank credit are the resultant of many known and unknown factors.
While the regulative procedure of banking systems and the policies and
practices of individual banks can be conceded to have exerted important
influence on trends in the amount and quality of banking credit, much
greater significance attaches to the movement of several major underlying
factors in the situation. Of these, the use of government securities as the
base of bank credit and the continuous flow of gold imports into the
United States have unquestionably been the prime factors. The spectacu-
lar rise in the debt of the federal government has already been noted.64
Particularly in the war years and from 1918 to 1919, borrowing by member
banks at their reserve banks collateraled by securities of the United States
government, served to expand the volume of bank credit. The second
factor was the rise in gold stocks in this country. Due to a combination
of forces, arising out of the methods of financing the war expenditures of
the Allied governments, the post-war reconstruction need of Europe
and the post-war commercial and investment policy of the United States,
American gold holdings increased from the beginning of the war and, in
spite of the huge withdrawals by foreign countries in 1932, stood at twice
their pre-war amount in the middle of that year.
TABLE 22. — STOCKS OF GOLD COIN AND BULLION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1914-1932°
(Millions of dollars)
As of June 30—
Gold coin
and bullion
As of June 30 —
Gold coin
and bullion
1914
1 891
1923
4 050
1915
1,986
1924
4 488
1916
2,445
1925
4 360
1917 . . .
3,220
1926
4 447
1918
3,163
1927
4 587
1919
3,113
1928
4,109
1920
2,865
1929&
4,284
1921
3,275
1930&
4,593
1922
3,785
1931&*
4,460
1932*
3,918
° U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1931, p. 248.
* As of December 31.
« U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bulletin, June, 1932, vol. XVIII, p. 354.
* Ibid, July, 1932, vol. XVIII, p. 423,
The International Situation. — Gold imports into the United States
and many of the banking problems which remain to plague us now are
64 See p. 224.
F £58 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
traceable to American war loans, the relation of these loans to the repara-
tions settlements, the great expansion of private American loans to foreign
countries after the war and the tariff policy of this country which made the
payment of interest and capital on the debt, in anything but gold, an
increasingly difficult task. As one writer put it, the conversion of the
United States into a creditor nation "presented two phenomena and a
paradox. The phenomena were the enormous stimulation of imports into
borrowing areas . . . and a notably rapid increase in their public debt.
The paradox was that America the creditor had throughout the period a
large excess of exports, while the borrowing countries commonly had an
excess of imports. This paradox was noted with some foreboding, for it
clearly indicated that the entire equilibrium of world trade, as well as
the continuity of payments of principal and interest upon international
debt had come to depend upon the maintenance of a large and uninter-
rupted flow of fresh funds from the creditor to the debtor areas." Under
such circumstances "even the vexed problem of reparations and allied
debt was solved; America lent Germany the funds with which to pay
reparations; these funds returned to the American Treasury by way of
allied debt payments; the American Treasury returned them to the
market by retiring the public debt, which in turn permitted tax reduc-
tions; thus converting a tax liability into a high yielding earning asset."66
The data which illumine this statement appear in the changes in the
visible and invisible items in the trade of the United States and in the
movements of capital and interest payments between the United States
and foreign countries between 1922 and 1930. In each of the years of this
TABLE 23. — MOVEMENTS OF CAPITAL AND INTEREST PAYMENTS BETWEEN THE UNITED
STATES AND FOREIGN COUNTRIES, 1922-1931°
(Millions of dollars)
Item
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
Net private capital movement:
—753
+ 30
-733
-560
-540
-695
-718
-319
-295
+218
Short term
+375
+ 3
+216
- 61
+359
0
-226
+ 13
-485
-765
Net private capital movement. . . .
War debt receipts, capital and
interest
-378
+158
+ 33
+259
-517
+183
-621
+186
-181
+195
-695
+206
-944
+207
-306
+207
-780
+241
-547
+113
Net Interest payments
+411
+414
+443
+460
+472
+519
+537
+565
+616
+548
Total
+191
+706
+109
+ 25
+486
+ 30
-200
+466
+ 77
+114
« U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, The Balance of International Payments of the United
States in 1931, Trade Information Bulletin, no. 803, pp. 76-7. The data are for the balance, or credit items
minus debit items. 1931 figures are based on unrevised estimates.
66 Robert Warren in an unpublished manuscript on American post-war financial develop-
ments, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[ 259 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
period except one the sum of the visible and invisible items of trade of the
United States showed an unfavorable balance ranging from $465,000,000
in 1923 to $12,000,000 in 1922. At the same time net interest and capital
payment showed a preponderatingly favorable balance. Table 23 shows
how net interest payments have been growing in the period when Ameri-
can loans to foreigners have increased. In 1930, for example, interest
payments made to Americans, omitting the payments on war debts,
equalled 79 percent of the net foreign loans made by Americans; and in
1931 Americans loaned to foreigners the full hundred percent which they
received as interest payments made by foreigners on net loans extended
by Americans.
The granting of foreign credits enables a country to import gold in
spite of an unfavorable trade balance. But the time comes when this
process results in piling up debts to such an amount that debtor nations
find it necessary to borrow in order to meet interest payments. At such
a time, the entire debt structure is faced with the danger of collapse, as
in the summer of 1931 when Germany was forced to seek the famous
" Stillhaltung " agreement with her creditors.
The extent of foreign borrowing in the United States is also indicated
in Table 23. The item, long term net private capital movements, is made
up of foreign issues publicly offered in the United States plus foreign
stocks and bonds bought by Americans, privately purchased foreign
issues and direct investments abroad, less underwriting commissions and
bond discounts and American securities bought by foreigners. When
interest rates in the United States are high or when American investors
TABLE 24. — FOBEIGN SECURITY ISSUES AND ACCEPTANCES OUTSTANDING, 1922-1931°
(Millions of dollars)
Date
Acceptances outstanding arising
from foreign storage and ship-
ment (end of the year)
Foreign security issues, excluding
refunding issues (total for the
year)
1922
(6)
764
1923
(6)
421
1924
(6)
969
1925
17
1,076
1926
40
1,125
1927
130
1,337
1928
243
1,251
1929
441
671
1930
561
905
1931
296
229
0 Acceptance data from American Acceptance Council. Data for 1925-1930 published in Facts and Figures
Relating to the American Money Market, 1931, pp. 42, 43. Foreign security data from U. S. Bureau of Foreign
and Domestic Commerce, Trade Information Bulletin, no. 802, 1931, p. 8. The data in this table are not strictly
comparable, but may be used to indicate changes.
k No data.
[ 260 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
are reluctant to buy foreign securities, foreign borrowers turn to the
short term money market for funds. This is done for the most part by the
use of the American acceptance market. Table 24 shows how the accept-
ance market replaced the long term markets when it became impossible to
sell new foreign bonds in this country.
Foreign security issues declined greatly in 1923. This resulted in a
sharp drop in exports of American goods in that year and in gold ship-
ments to the United States. A new alternative loan market, the accept-
ance market, was made available for foreign financing by a ruling of the
Federal Reserve Board published in February, 1927, which liberalized
the requirements for purchase of acceptances by the reserve banks. This
resulted in an immediate increase in the number of outstanding accept-
ances of the class arising from goods stored in or shipped between foreign
countries. The greatest increase was recorded in 1929 when high interest
rates in the New York money market stopped the sale of foreign bonds.
Germany was the country which suffered most from having this source of
foreign credits unexpectedly cut off. Throughout 1928 and 1929 repre-
sentatives of German banks traveled through the United States arranging
lines of acceptance credits, particularly with those member banks in
Chicago and San Francisco which had not utilized their full acceptance
powers. The result was an increase of these acceptance powers. Thus the
acceptances outstanding rose from 130 millions of dollars at the end of
1927 to 441 millions of dollars at the end of 1929. This accompanied a
decline in new issues of foreign bonds from 1,251 millions of dollars in
1928 to 671 millions of dollars in 1929. In 1930 there was a further rise
in this kind of issue due to increased issues by Canadian and Latin
American borrowers. Germany continued to use the acceptance market
for borrowing operations.
During 1931 the effects of the necessary readjustment, delayed so long
by means of the extension of foreign borrowing through access to the
American acceptance market, were felt in the way in which they would
have been felt at an earlier date had this source of credit not existed.
The exports of the United States fell, so that there was an excess of exports
over imports of only 334 millions of dollars in 1931 as against 782 millions
of dollars for 1930 and 1,037 millions of dollars for 1928, the last year in
which long term credits were granted to foreigners to any considerable
extent. In the meantime, the short term credits advanced in the accept-
ance market could not be repaid. These acceptances constituted a con-
siderable portion of the fifteen hundred millions of dollars of short term
credits frozen in Germany under the " Stillhaltung " agreement, con-
summated with American banks in January, 1932.
Changes in the Structure and Functions of American Banks. — The
highly competitive and decentralized character of the American banking
[ 261 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
system constituted for a long time a source of weakness which was
aggravated by the post-war agricultural depression and by the extra-
ordinary burdens, already described, imposed upon it or assumed by it
since the beginning of the war. Our tradition of independent unit banking
and the unwillingness of local banking interests to surrender their
autonomy had caused a rapid multiplication in the number of banks. A
large proportion of these, particularly in agricultural and rural sections
but to some extent in the cities as well, were small institutions unable to
withstand the impact of unfavorable conditions. From 1910 to 1920 the
number of state and national banks combined increased nearly 8,000 —
from 21,486 to 29,230. And from 1900 to 1920, the measure of the multi-
plication of banks is indicated by the fact that the number of persons per
bank declined from 8,828 to 3,617. These numerous institutions, more-
over, were for the most part small banks, since in 1920 approximately
one-fourth of the banks of the country had loans and investments of less
than $150,000 each.
The inherent weaknesses in this situation were disclosed long before
the present depression in the uninterrupted sequence of bank failures
begun in 1921. Even by 1929 there were 5,515 fewer banks than in 1920
and by 1931 the number had been further reduced by 3,747. While a part
of this reduction came through consolidations of existing institutions,
most of it represented actual suspension. Between 1921 and 1931 there
were 9,285 bank suspensions of which 3,643 occurred in the years 1930
and 1931. The total deposits of the suspended institutions amounted to
approximately four and one quarter billion dollars.66 The earlier suspen-
sions were largely limited to the southeastern states and to the western
grain area, but the bank failures of the past two years took their toll of
banking institutions in the large cities and in the industrial states.
Although, finally, many medium sized and large institutions were caught
in this last wave of suspensions, the effect of the reduction in the total
number of banks was to eliminate the small banks mainly. Thus from 1920
to 1930, the number of banks with loans and investments of $500,000 and
under had decreased by more than 25 percent; but larger institutions,
with loans and investments of $2,000,000 and over, had actually increased
in number in the same period.
More important, probably, under the type of conditions prevailing
in the United States after the war, was the acceleration of functional
trends in banking practice which exposed these institutions to additional
danger. Continued departmentalization in the business of commercial
banks and, in the later years especially, the growing participation by
banks in the business of floating and selling securities through the instru-
66 U. S. Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bulletin, February, 1932, vol. XVIII,
p. 132.
[ 262 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
mentality of the security affiliates may be said to have been the most
crucial of these trends.
The earliest development of this nature was the general acceptance
by commercial banks of time deposits. The Federal Reserve Act confirmed
the prevailing practice in this regard by requiring lower reserves against
time than against demand deposits. Between 1914 and 1929 the time
deposits of all member banks had increased 12 billion dollars while net
demand deposits had expanded 13.5 billions. This represented an extra-
ordinary growth of this form of deposit. Such time deposits, moreover,
need not and probably in large part did not represent genuine savings
accounts. The lower reserve requirements against such deposits may have
induced many banks to encourage the opening of such accounts; and the
absence of any provision of the law requiring the segregation of assets
against time deposits offered no impediment in the way of the shift from
TABLE 25. — SECURITY ORIGINATIONS AND PARTICIPATIONS ON THE PART OF BANK SECURITY
AFFILIATES, 1927-1930°
(Millions of dollars)
Affiliates
Originations
1927
1928
1929
1930
Amount
Percent
of total
Amount
Percent
of total
Amount
Percent
of total
Amount
Percent
of total
National bank affiliates. . .
Other bank affiliates
Total
592
163
10.1
2.7
650
321
15.6
7.7
715
489
24.6
16.9
1,279
531
27.6
11.6
755
541
4,567
12.8
9.2
78.0
971
259
2,924
23.3
6.2
70.5
1,204
115
1,586
41.5
4.0
54.5
1,810
249
2,557
39.2
5.4
55.4
Commercial banks and
trust companies
Private bankers
Grand total
National bank affiliates. . .
Other bank affiliates
Total
5,863
100.0
4,154
100.0
2,905
100.0
4,616
100.0
Participations
1,661
1,051
12.6
8.0
909
1,175
8.9
11.5
1,238
1,906
17.6
27.2
4,303
2,676
33.6
20.8
2,712
2,131
8,310
20.6
16.2
63.2
2,084
1,191
6,957
20.4
11.6
68.0
3,144
441
3,427
44.8
6.3
48.9
6,979
878
4,992
54.4
6.8
38.8
Commercial banks and
trust companies
Private bankers
Grand total
13,153
100.0
10,232
100.0
7,012
100.0
12,849
100.0
0 Hearings before a sub-committee of the Committee on Banking and Currency, United States Senate,
71st Congress, 3rd Session, pursuant to Senate Resolution 71, p. 299.
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
slow commercial to time accounts. In addition to the development of
thrift departments, national banks were permitted by the Federal Reserve
Act to engage in fiduciary activities provided that their fiduciary activities
and investments conformed to the laws of the state in which the national
bank was located.
The latest step toward extending the activities of commercial banks
consisted in the entrance of the largest institutions particularly into the
investment business. Although the earliest security affiliate, the First
Security Company of the First National Bank of New York City, was
organized in 1908, the spectacular expansion of this type of banking
activity began only after 1920. The growth of the security affiliates of
commercial banks in the last ten years has tended to give these banks
a dominating position in the investment market. How rapidly this change
has taken place is shown in Table 25 on page 263.
Too many banks and the absence of central supervision over them
paved the way for lax and unsatisfactory bank management. The adop-
tion of added banking functions by many commercial banks was not
accompanied by the proper separation of these functions, except perhaps
in the case of trust departments, and by the creation of adequate safe-
guards against the contingent liabilities of each. The current agitation in
New York State for the segregation of the time and demand deposits of
commercial banks is evidence of the failure of these institutions vol-
untarily to protect the interests of their new departments. Finally, the
development of the security affiliate found commercial banks all too
ready to lend against the securities of their own affiliates and to purchase
them for their own trust accounts. Uncontrolled by the law and inade-
quately supervised by existing regulatory agencies, these tendencies
proved an added source of weakness to a banking system already seriously
handicapped by the basic business and financial development of the past
15 years and perhaps also by its own policy.
VII. CONCLUSION
The rapidity of economic change since the beginning of the World
War imposed upon existing economic institutions the necessity for fre-
quent and drastic readjustment. In practically every field of economic
activity the pace of old and new trends was enormously accelerated. The
physical output of our economic system, stimulated to produce the
combined war and peace requirements of this country during the war
years, rose in the post-war decades to heights far in excess of the pre-war.
The sheer impossibility of a precise reading of the future and the inevi-
table difficulties involved in controlling competitive enterprise at the
same time created serious and basic maladjustments in the system. Plant
and equipment expanded much faster than the production of goods
[ 264 ]
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
bought by the ultimate consumers. The market for consumers' commodi-
ties became dominated by the unexpected growth in the purchase of
durable goods and the decline in the sale of the staple commodities of
industry and agriculture. While industry prospered and yielded high
wages, fairly good employment and more than normal profits to business,
agriculture languished and found it increasingly difficult to maintain the
standards of well being achieved during the war. Each of the five major
price movements of the period contributed further to the disparities
among various groups of prices — agricultural and industrial, raw material
and manufactured goods, wholesale and retail, securities and commodities
— and this intensified the strain already characteristic of the war and
post-war price system. First called upon to finance the extraordinary
requirements of war and later caught in the trend of expanding outlays
for capital equipment, the federal government and particularly our local
governments experienced a huge increase in their debts, whose reduction
after the war was found to be an exceedingly slow and difficult task. At
the same time, private business, aware of the benefits of stability and
quick to seize the opportunities afforded by the speculative temper of
the country and the favorable condition of the investment markets,
pushed the consolidation movement forward in all fields of business
enterprise.
In the banking system of the country the accumulation of vast gold
stocks, the use of the outstanding volume of government securities as a
support for credit and perhaps the credit policy of the Federal Reserve
Banks constituted the base for more than an equivalent expansion in
the volume of bank credit. Changes in the practice of financing private
business, a development limited to the years since 1920, and the inability
of the banking system to control the direction of the flow of credit,
accounted for the stability of the ordinary commercial loans of banks
during the post-war years and the colossal wave of speculation in urban
real estate and in the stock market. Throughout the period, also, increas-
ing numbers of persons, depending in part on the permanence of fortuitous
income from speculative profits, expanded their personal borrowing by
incurring debts on their life insurance policies, by direct borrowing from
personal finance companies and by the instalment purchase of automo-
biles, refrigerators, radios and common stock. The traditional competitive
spirit of American banking became intensified by the atmosphere of the
times. Established safeguards were abandoned; entrance into new business
activities caused to some extent the neglect of the old ; and the standards
of public bank inspection deteriorated. These changes in the quantity
and quality of banking operations constituted a much severer strain on
our financial system than was commonly realized; and by 1932 the fruits
of recent developments were felt in the rise in bank failures, in the uni-
[ 265 1
RECENT SOCIAX TRENDS
versal hoarding of currency and in the adoption of desperate measures
to prevent actual banking panic.
Although the economic organization of the United States presents
to a surface view a high and unusual degree of economic self-sufficiency,
the trend of events in this country since 1914 can be understood only in
their international setting. Huge war and post-war loans to Europe,
private and public; the flow of gold into the United States; the rise of this
country as a creditor nation and the tremendous expansion of American
foreign loans after 1922; failure of the countries of the world, including
the United States, to devise a satisfactory mechanism for the conduct
of international trade and for the settlement of debts and reparations;
the effects of organic changes in the economic organization of Europe on
world trade arfd on the prices of raw material, following the adoption of
the Peace Treaty; and finally the universal unsettlement of currency
systems, are among the more important interacting forces whose bearing
on our domestic economic situation is clear. So far as the near future is
concerned, the discovery by the United States of its responsibilities and
duties as a creditor nation and the fixing of sound policy to regulate the
relation between foreign trade and foreign loans may be regarded as at
least one of our most vital national economic problems.
In this latest period we have been witnessing a continuation of the
trend in the radical transformation of the relation of government to
business. The problems of public control over business attributable to
the growth of business combination alone are likely to be the most
vexing of our immediate economic and political problems. The abandon-
ment of the elaborate industrial controls of the war appeared to many
to mark the close of a period. The difficult problems of the post-war
years and especially the conditions produced by the depression, however,
have given rise to new instrumentalities of government created to assist
in the solution of the problems of private business. In agriculture the
experiment, begun during the war, to provide special credit facilities to
farmers has grown into the law creating the Federal Farm Board in 1929,
charged with the task of stabilizing the prices of agricultural products.
The severe financial strain suffered by the railroads since 1929 has resulted
in the tightening of federal control over their activities and in the exten-
sion of public credit to them. Banking and credit policy has in the past
several years come more than ever under the influence of government,
not only through the loans extended to banks by the recently organized
Reconstruction Finance Corporation, but perhaps even more through
the attempts of the government to devise a policy of credit expansion
calculated to hasten the process of business recovery.
While no elaborate development of government functions may imme-
diately grow out of the current discussion of economic planning or the
[ 266 1
ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION
bills in Congress providing for the establishment of Economic Councils,
it is clear that public preoccupation with the problems of industrial
stability and financial safety and with the government's part in achieving
both is more general than before. It seems probable that control over
public utilities and the banks will be extended and strengthened. And at
every point in the contemporary scene the suggestion springs unforced
from the evidence that the future will almost certainly see a continuation
of the existing strong movement toward the building of institutions
aiming to secure increased economic stability.
[267]
CHAPTER VI
SHIFTING OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS
BY RALPH G. HURLIN AND MEREDITH B. GIVENS
APROXIMATELY two-thirds of the life span of the average man
is devoted to gainful employment. Of these years half of the
waking hours are commonly spent in active work, if vacations,
illness and involuntary idleness are left out of consideration. In any
community the satisfactions of life are dependent upon the character of
the occupations in which the people are engaged. Among the 40 percent
of the population customarily employed for monetary gain and among
the additional 20 percent who are housewives, the nature of the daily
tasks is the leading determinant of the real meaning and quality of living.
The quality of the job goes far to set the tone, pitch and tempo of leisure
as well as of working hours. The requirements of accessible vocations
and the relative attractiveness of different callings also exert a dominant
influence over the content and direction of elementary and advanced
education and vocational training. In an age of economic interdependence
and specialized subdivision of labor the welfare of the community rests
upon the maintenance of balance in the numbers in the different
occupational groups.
Changing occupations present a panoramic view of long time social
trends. They suggest also something of the human significance of the
more recent changes of the past decade. As the years have gone by
there has been a smaller and smaller proportion of the population engaged
in agriculture and a greater and greater proportion living in urban dis-
tricts. The shift to the cities has brought a profound change in the outlook
on life. More women, especially more married women, are now working
for pay outside of the home.1 Old skills and techniques of workers that
have taken years to build up are being lost with the advance in machinery.
Machines are cutting down the grilling toil required in many occupations.
White collar workers are increasing in number. The prevalence of indoor
non-manual work has reduced the necessary calorie content of the food
consumed by a large proportion of the population. The electric light has
extended the activities of work and leisure into all hours of the twenty-
four hour cycle. Machines are being introduced into home and office as
well as factory. Before our eyes are continuous and innumerable shifts
in occupations in all fields of endeavor. The shifting occupational pattern
1 See Chap. XIV.
[ 268 ]
OCCUPATIONS
is richly suggestive of the meaning of social change, revealing the decline
of old habits and institutions and the rise of new.
The new entrant in the world of gainful occupation of the 1930's
confronts a range of opportunities for work which differs radically from
that of two decades ago, or even from that which prevailed at the close
of the World War. A remarkable expansion of the technical profes-
sions and an increasing demand for specialized training have been accom-
panied by a decline in the relative importance of the more arduous manual
occupations as the proportion of the population engaged in white collar
work has shot upward. The occupational shifts of the last decade exhibit
the marked characteristics of a maturing industrial and commercial
civilization in which freedom of employment opportunity is more limited
than in the days of vast unclaimed resources and a beckoning frontier.
There is reason for increasing concern with the revamping of traditional
educational and training patterns as a means of enhancing the human
values of modern life. With the twentieth century has come the beginning
of a new quest for stability and security in life in contrast to the easy
reliance upon indefinite expansion characteristic of a country in its youth.
Despite the early expansion of population and enterprise in the United
States, the tools and techniques of production and the general character of
gainful employment were not subject to violent or sweeping change prior
to the 1870's. The quality of the daily rounds of toil in fields, marts and
workshops at the time of the Civil War was in general quite comparable
with the prevalent occupations of the people of the two or three preceding
generations. During the 1870's and 1880's a tremendous acceleration
in the rate of economic and industrial development introduced a new
element of continual change in the nature of the work performed and
in the distribution of the working population among expanding industries
and shifting occupations. During the last three decades of the nineteenth
century revolutionary changes in technology and the release of the teem-
ing resources of a new continent made it possible to conduct industrial
enterprise on an increasingly large scale. The urgent labor require-
ments of industry have drawn into the factories and workshops veritable
hordes of native Americans as well as a vast stream of immigrant workers.
It is inevitable that profound changes have occurred in the life and
labor of a people whose physical production has increased twenty-five
or thirty fold during six decades. The sheer physical expansion of activity
has far outstripped the growth of population.2 A new industrial world
has been created with whose occupations the best knowledge and skill
of the seventies would be helpless to cope. In the midst of restless prog-
ress in the techniques of production and in a domestic market without
known limits the superstructure of twentieth century industrial life
2 See Chap. V.
[ 269 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
has been erected. Built on a base of coal, steel and iron, the growth of
American industry may be roughly measured by the increase in the
production of pig iron from one and one-half million tons annually at
the close of the sixties to the amazing totals of thirty and forty million
tons per year during the decade of the 1920's. From 1899 to 1929 the
output per worker in manufacturing industry increased more than
fifty percent.3 In an environment of ceaseless change in technology,
in volume of production, in consumption habits, marketing techniques,
prices, wages, income and purchasing power the American people have
sought and found their livelihoods and the attendant fortunes and
disasters. Each successive decade has seen a remarkable transforma-
tion in the quality and diversity of occupations. The continuous break-
down, subdivision and reassembly of old jobs and skills and the constant
creation of new tasks with the consequent shifts in the range and character
of employment opportunity have become leading characteristics of pres-
ent day industry.
In the following pages the tendencies of recent years will be examined
against the long background of occupational shifts during the great
expansion period since the Civil War. The discussion rests upon an
analysis of the statistics of occupations, of employment, and of unem-
ployment. The data of occupations pertain to the numbers customarily
at work or dependent upon employment in various lines of endeavor
without reference to the actual availability of work in these lines. Statis-
tics of employment, on the other hand, show the numbers of workers
carried on active payrolls. The statistics of unemployment, less extensive
and more difficult to interpret than the statistics of occupations and
employment, will be discussed in later pages.4 tlnfortunately there are no
directly comparable census statistics showing for each decade a dis-
tribution of the total gainful workers by general divisions or by sub-
groups of occupations. The trends in occupations have been determined
by one of the authors by means of a classification of the figures given
in successive occupation censuses since 1870 in an attempt to make
the figures for the various years as comparable as possible. The statistics
given for general divisions and for certain individual occupations are
only approximately correct, since they include estimates without which
no comparisons for the period can be made. However, it is believed that
the figures used are sufficiently comparable to measure the broad and
unmistakable tendencies which have taken place. It is the task of this
chapter to sketch briefly the bold contours of these changes and to
characterize their significance in the life of the people.5
3 See Table 1, Chap. XVI.
4 See section V of this chapter.
6 The data of the chapter have been drawn chiefly from the successive occupation
censuses since 1870. The decennial enumeration of gainful workers made in connection
[ 270 1
OCCUPATIONS
I. PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION GAINFULLY OCCUPIED
What proportion of the people actually engages in producing and
distributing the nation's goods and services? How numerous are the
dependents who do not pay their own way? Has the proportion of the
population which carries the load of physical production been increasing
or decreasing? It might be reasonable to suppose that with the coming
of the machine a smaller proportion of the population should be required
to work, especially in view of the increases in aggregate and per capita
wealth in recent decades. Our estimates show, however, that a larger
percentage of the population has been at work since 1910 than in 1870
or in the intervening decades.
Major Divisions of the Population. — How the proportion of the
total population gainfully occupied has increased during the past seventy
years is shown by the data of Table 1 and in Figure 1. While the popula-
tion increased over 200 percent, from forty millions in 1870 to one
hundred and twenty-five millions in 1930, the number of persons gain-
fully occupied grew still more rapidly from a little over twelve millions
in 1870 to a total of more than forty-eight millions in 1930, an increase
of approximately 300 percent. From Figure 1 it will be seen that the
gainfully occupied were increasing more rapidly than the total popula-
tion during the first four decades of the period under consideration.
The proportion of the population engaged in gainful pursuits
increased from 32 percent in 1870 to nearly 40 percent in the decades
.since 1910. This means that a growing fraction of the population has
produced the goods and services consumed. A more illuminating picture
with the federal population censuses have related since 1870 to the entire population of the
United States ten years of age and over. While the essential character of the inquiry has
remained the same from decade to decade, many changes in methods have been introduced
which affect the comparability of the occupation data. The time of year at which the
census was taken has varied, for example, thus affecting the results obtained for various
seasonal occupations, in particular, agricultural labor and building occupations. The date
of the census was June 1 until 1910, when it was changed to April 15. In 1920 the date was
advanced to January 1, which undoubtedly caused considerable distortion in certain figures
for that year. In 1930 the date was April 1. The scheme of occupational classification has
been frequently changed, so that for many important occupational groups it is impossible
to obtain comparable figures over a long period. In the present use of the material, the
object has been by means of detailed comparison of the data published for each census
period to obtain presumptive trends for both major occupational groups and a large number
of specific occupations. In obtaining figures for groups of occupations, readjustments in
classification have been made from census to census in obtaining presumably comparable
totals. In some cases missing figures have been estimated, and in several instances, where
the reports of the census warn of probable incomparability in the data, adjustments have
been made in accordance with the suggestions contained in the census reports. While many
of the figures in the following tables will be found in the census publications, the figures of
the chapter should be interpreted as estimates of long time trends. It should be stated that
the present plans of the Bureau of the Census contemplate the publication of official figures
showing occupational changes over a considerable number of decades.
r 271 i
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of this change is obtained if those who have not reached working age
are excluded from the comparisons. From Table 2 it appears that the
NUMBER Of PERSONS
00,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
1670
»090
1910
1930
FIG. 1. — Growth of total population and of population gainfully occupied, 1870-1930.
proportion gainfully occupied among the population ten years of age
and over increased from 44 percent in 1870 to nearly 50 percent in 1930.
[ 272 ]
OCCUPATIONS
PER C€NT
////////Y///////
OccinfulTy Occupied
///////V///////A/
Children under 5 Years
1870
I860
1890
1900
1920
1930
FIG. 2. — Primary activity distribution of the total population, 1870-1930.
PER
100
80
CENT
PER CE
NT
100
80
—
"
—
MALES
FEMALES
CO
-
60
40
-
-
40
20
0
1
i
m
%>,'
20
0
) 20 30 40 SO 60 70 80
AGE
3
ZO 30
40 50 60 70 60
AGE:
FIG. 3. — Percent of male and of female population gainfully occupied in 1930, by age.
[ 273 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 1. — ESTIMATED PRIMARY ACTIVITY DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL POPULATION, 1870-1930a
Activity group
Percentage of total population
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
14.3
10.7
16.6
32.4
21.3
.3
4.4
13.8
6.8
19.8
34.7
21.9
.4
2.6
12.4
6.8
18.6
37.2
21.7
.4
2.9
12.1
6.7
17.7
38.3
21.6
.5
3.1
11.5
3.8
19.6
40.6
21.2
.5
2.8
10.9
3.7
20.6
39.6
21.5
.6
3.1
9.3
2.9
22.7
39.8
21.3
.6
3.4
Children 5 to 15 years not at school or gainfully
Persons attending school
Persons gainfully occupied
Housewives not gainfully occupied
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0 The available census data are quite inadequate for deriving a precise activity distribution of the popu-
lation. The figures of this table must, therefore, be accepted as very approximate estimates. There is some
overlapping between the categories, "Persons attending school" and "Persons gainfully occupied" and between
"Adults in institutions" and those gainfully occupied. As subsequently explained the figures for housewives, or
persons working in the home without pay, are very roughly estimated. Those not accounted for would be larger
if duplication in other categories were eliminated. This category includes dependents over 16 years of age not
in institutions.
Of the population 16 years of age and over, 57 percent are now cus-
tomarily employed as compared with 52 percent in 1870. Thus a distinctly
TABI.E 2. — PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION GAINFULLY OCCUPIED, 1870-1930
Population group
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910"
1920°
1930
Entire population:
Total
32 4
34 7
37 2
38 3
40 6
39 6
39 8
Males.
54 7
57 8
60 2
61 2
62 9
61 8
61 3
Females . .
9 6
10 7
13 1
14 3
17 0
16 5
17 7
Population 10 years and over:
Total
44 3
47 3
49 2
50 2
52 1
50 6
49 5
Males
74 8
78 7
79 3
80 0
80 3
78 8
76 2
Females
13 1
14 7
17 4
18 8
21 9
21 1
22 0
Population 16 years and over:
Total
52 2
54 0
55 8
56 5
59 0
58 1
57 1
Males
88 6
90 6
90 5
90 5
91 1
90 5
88 0
Females
14 8
16 0
19 0
20 6
24 3
24 0
25 3
" Adjustments have been made in the occupation figures used for 1910 and 1920, because of probable over-
enumeration of women and children in agriculture in 1910, and probable under-enumeration of farm laborers
due to the date of census in 1920. For the total population the percentage gainfully occupied according to the
published census figures was, in 1910, 41.5 instead of 40.6; in 1920, 39.4 instead of 39.6.
larger proportion even of the population which has reached working age
has shouldered the load of the nation's gainful work. Apparently, how-
ever, during the past two decades the proportion has not increased but
instead has declined slightly.
[ 274 ]
OCCUPATIONS
Comparison with Great Britain. — To lend perspective to the American
situation a comparison of these trends with similar figures for Great
Britain is shown in Table 3. Detailed comparison of these figures should
be made cautiously in view of probable differences in the census methods
used in the two countries. However, it is clear that the ratio of gainfully
occupied to the total population of Great Britain has declined since the
1890's, while in America the trend has been toward a higher ratio of
the working population to the total. In 1920, however, a larger frac-
tion of the total population was engaged in gainful pursuits in Britain
than in America. Especially marked is the divergence in the relative
proportion of women employed in the two countries. In 1911 one-
third of British women were recorded as gainfully occupied as compared
with less than one-fourth of American women in 1910.
TABLE 3. — PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION TEN YEARS OF AGE AND OVER GAINFULLY
OCCUPIED, IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN GREAT BRITAIN, 1880-1921°
Population group
United States
Great Britain
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
Population 10 years and over:
Total
47.3
78.7
14.7
49.2
79.3
17.4
50.2
80.0
18.8
52.1
80.3
21.9
59 0
50.6
78.8
21.1
58 1
57.7
83.3
33.9
57.8
83.2
34.4
56.7
83.7
31.8
56.9
83.7
32.3
62.8
93.9
34.7
55.3
82.8
30.8
61.3
93.4
83.1
Males
Females
Population 16 years and over:
Total
Males
91 1
90 5
Females
24.3
24.0
a Data for Great Britain adapted from British census figures presented in London and Cambridge Economic
Service, Occupational Changes in Great Britain, 1911 and 1921 by A. L. Bowley, Special Memorandum no.
17, May 1926; and Survey of Industrial Relations by the Committee on Industry and Trade, London, 1931.
The relative number of British women gainfully employed had declined
slightly by 1921 but it still exceeded the proportion of American women
in this category by approximately 10 percent. This comparison is affected
by the greater degree of urbanization and the relative unimportance of
agriculture in Great Britian. It is also affected by the persisting influence
of the employment habits of an earlier generation in England when large
numbers of women were employed in the English factories and workshops
of the early industrial revolution.
Productive Capacity of the Population. — The growing proportion of
the total population engaged in gainful work over the past six decades
in the United States is partially explained by the increased employment
of women outside the home. An additional explanation is found in the
increasing proportion of available labor power in the total population
[ 275 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
brought about by a marked falling off in the relative numbers of children.
From 1870 to 1930 the number of persons in the productive ages between
16 and 64 increased from 56 percent to 63 percent of the total population
while the gainfully occupied of these ages increased from 45 to 50 percent
of the total. As shown in Table 4, this change in the proportion of popula-
tion of productive age is explained by a decline of one-fourth in the pro-
portion under the age of sixteen during this period.
TABLE 4. — CHANGE IN PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY AS INDICATED BY THE PERCENTAGE OP
TOTAL POPULATION IN THREE AGE DIVISIONS, 1870-1930
Age
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
Under 16 years
41.3
40.0
37.6
36.4
33.9
33.5
31.2
16 to 64 years
65 years and over.
55.7
3.0
56.6
3.4
58.5
3.9
59.5
4.1
61.8
4.3
61.8
4.7
63.4
5.4
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
In actual numbers children have always comprised a very large
percentage of the population, but with the fall in birth rate and the
consequent reduction in the rate of population growth the number of
dependents supported by the working population has been reduced.6 The
smaller average size of the American family is a leading cause of this shift
in age distribution,7 a change not offset by the decrease in infant mortality.
We have seen that the gainfully employed were 40 percent of the
population in 1930 as compared with 32 percent in 1870. Among these the
large proportion of women engaged in the care of their own homes is not
included, though they are a class contributing in an important way to the
total of goods and services. By including housewives with the gainfully
employed the percentage of the population at work mounts to more than
60 percent during recent decades.
In determining the number of persons actually carrying the burdens
of society we must make allowance for the sick and the unemployed
among those ordinarily at work. If those too sick to work and the
normally unemployed are considered, the number of actively employed
workers is reduced to not more than 54 or 55 percent of the total popula-
tion. At the present time, in other words, a little more than half of the
population carry on the current work of society and somewhat less than
half are dependents.
Gainful Workers According to Age. — The structure of the working
population has been affected by forces from without as well as from within.
During the eighties and nineties industry and trade attracted large
6 On the declining number of children, see Chap. I.
7 For full discussion of this subject, see Chap. XIII.
[ 276 ]
OCCUPATIONS
numbers of workers. Young people and children were increasingly drawn
into employment until the nineteen hundreds, when the rising tide of
youthful workers was stemmed by legal restrictions in most states, by the
steady rise of compulsory school requirements and the growth of the
population enrolled in high schools, colleges and technical institutions.
Whereas 18 percent of the children between the ages of 10 and 15 were
recorded by the census as at gainful work in 1890, less than 5 percent were
so recorded in 1930. The number of children under 16 who were reported
as gainfully occupied in 1930 is actually somewhat smaller than that in
1870 before the great industrial expansion. Thus the complexity of
modern life, the technical requirements of present occupations, changing
customs and legal restrictions have combined to retard the entry of
potential younger workers into the ranks of available labor.8
On the other hand older workers are tenaciously clinging to employ-
ment. Contrary to popular supposition, the occupation statistics indicate
that a greater proportion of persons between the ages of 45 and 65 is
now customarily employed than during the nineties. This is explained
largely by the increase in the employment of women. Of men, the propor-
tion at work between these ages has remained relatively constant. Among
men of 65 and over there is distinctly less employment today than formerly,
as is shown by the decline of gainfully occupied in this group from 74
percent in 1890 to 58 percent in 1930. Among women past 65 the extent of
TABLE 5. — PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION GAINFULLY OCCUPIED, BY AGE AND SEX,
1890-1930
Age
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
Total population:
10 to 15 years
18 1
18 2
13 7
8 5
4 7
16 to 44 years
57 1
58 3
61 8
60 7
eo K
45 years and over
52 3
52 1
52 0
52 3
R9. 9.
45 to 64 years.
55 5
55 9
58 2
58 0
65 years and over. . .
41 8
39 0
34 2
33 2
Males:
10 to 15 years
26 0
26 0
18 6
11 3
6 4
16 to 44 years
90 6
91 4
93 3
92 4
on a
45 years and over
90 3
88 1
85 5
86 6
or o
45 to 64 years
95 2
93 5
93 8
94 1
65 years and over
73 8
68 4
60 4
58 3
Females:
10 to 15 years
10 0
10 2
8 7
5 6
2n
16 to 44 years.. .
21 7
23 5
28 1
28 3
an 7
45 years and over. . .
11 6
12 9
14 8
14 0
1ft 1
45 to 64 years
12 5
14 1
17 1
18 7
65 years and over . . .
8 3
9 1
8 0
8 0
8 On child labor, see Chap. XV.
[ 277
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
gainful employment is small and the proportion at gainful work has not
changed significantly. These changes are summarized in Table 5.
Figure 3 reveals the present concentration of employment among men
in the age groups between the mid-twenties and the fifties, and the steady
scaling off in the proportion gainfully occupied during the later years of
life. The peak of female employment naturally appears during the late
Agriculture Manufacturing Other occupied Unoccupied
45 TO 54 YEARS
PER CENT
80 100
55 TO 64 YEARS
](^^^^^^^$$$$$$$^
V^/1Z7/Z£$$$$$$$$$^
65 YEARS AND OVER
1890
FIG. 4. — Proportion of older men occupied and unoccupied, 1890-1930.
'teens and the early twenties, the pre-marriage age for the majority
of women. There is a sharp reduction in the number of women gainfully
employed during the late twenties and again during the early thirties
as an increasing proportion of the female population abandons the labor
market for the profession of home making. Between the late thirties
and the early fifties the proportion of women gainfully occupied declines
[ 278 1
OCCUPATIONS
gradually, the rate of gainful occupation falling off with increasing
rapidity above the age of fifty.
For men, the change since 1890 in the ages at which they leave gainful
work is shown in Figure 4, together with the proportions found in agri-
culture and in manufacturing. Men of 45 to 54 years of age had the same
percentage in gainful work in 1890 as now, but the proportion in agri-
culture has greatly decreased, while those in manufacture and other
pursuits have increased. For the ages 55 to 64, there has been some drop
in the proportion of gainful workers since 1890, with a change in
industrial distribution similar to the change in the next younger group.
The oldest group, males 65 and over, is seen to have had a large increase
in its proportion without gainful occupation, which is balanced by a
decrease in agriculture. This change, however, is not a new phenomenon,
but has come about by very gradual development.
Gainful Workers in Relation to Dependents. — A factor in the reduc-
tion of the number of dependents receiving direct family support is the
relative increase of the number of adults in custodial institutions. Al-
though the absolute number of persons thus cared for is not impressive,
these changes give evidence of the community's growing sense of re-
sponsibility for the aged, the unemployable and the indigent who cannot
be adequately cared for in their own homes.
As has been shown in Table 1 above, the estimated proportion of
housewives not otherwise occupied shows a surprising stability in relation
to the total population, varying only a fraction of one percent during the
entire sixty years under review.9 Of greater importance, however, is the
decreasing proportion of women of employable age engaged solely in
duties in the home.
Although the earning population today supports fewer dependents
than heretofore there are more breadwinners per family to share in that
support.10
II. MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS
More significant than the changes in the absolute or relative numbers
of the total working population are the shifts which have taken place in
the structure and functions of that population and in the nature of the
9 The number of housewives (women occupied in the home without receiving wages
who are not also pursuing a gainful occupation) has not been tabulated by the Bureau of
the Census for past censuses. An estimate of their number in 1920, however, has been
published by the Bureau. In this study the trend for this group has been estimated by
several methods. The method yielding the figures used in Table 1 assumes that the propor-
tion of women of working age who are gainfully occupied or working at housework at home
will have equalled the proportion of men of working age gainfully employed. While rough,
the method gives indication of the probable decline in the housekeeping function which is
confirmed by other methods of estimate.
10 See Chap. XIII.
[ 279 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tasks performed. Figure 5 portrays the rates of increase among the major
occupational groups, while Figure 6 shows the resulting changes in the
distribution of the working population.11
1,000,000
100,000
1680
1890
1900
1910
1920
1090
FIG. 5. — Trend of major occupational groups, 1870-1930 (gainful workers 16 years of age
and over).
11 In these and later figures and in corresponding tables Agriculture includes also
Forestry and Fishing, while Manufacturing and Mechanical Industries includes Construc-
tion, with the exception of highway and railroad construction, and miscellaneous hand
trades pursued outside of factories.
[ 280 ]
OCCUPATIONS
TABLE 6. — NUMBER OF PERSONS 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER IN SELECTED OCCUPATIONAL
GROUPS, 1870-1930"
(In thousands)
Occupation group
1870*
1880
1890"
1900
1910
1920
1930
Total agriculture and allied occupations
Farmers
6,428
/3,021
7,830
/4.308
8,973
/5,329
9,802
/5,775
<»10,872
6,132
«10 524
6,387
10,242
6,012
Farm laborers
/3.S54
/S,438
/3,485
/3.85S
^4,436
'3,781
8,922
Wageworkers
/1.889
<*2,593
«2,461
2,666
Unpaid family workers
/1,963
<J1,848
f\ 320
1 257
Fishermen . . .
26
41
59
67
67
52
73
Lumbermen and woodchoppers.
26
43
99
107
152
195
159
Total mining
172
252
388
576
947
1,083
983
Coal mine operatives and foremen
f7Q
/70
/123
/100
200
140
322
182
616
197
759
154
646
128
Oil and gas well operatives and foremen
26
89
110
Total manufacturing and mechanical industries
Total trade and transportation
Total trade
2674
1,104
4,033
1,741
5,743
2,969
7,537
4,445
10,253
6,223
3 447
12425
7,360
4 215
13,790
9,963
6 094
Wholesale dealers
/16
/23
31
42
58
74
84
Retail dealers . .
/S76
/510
718
863
1,106
1 328
1 703
Salespeople and clerks in stores
/105
/194
/470
'811
1,232
1 509
2,377
Commercial travelers
7
28
59
93
164
179
224
Real estate and insurance agents
125
224
284
526
Bankers, stock and loan brokers
11
19
36
73
106
2776
162
S 145
222
3 869
145
221
445
624
822
955
1 386
Steam railroads
153
235
461
580
1,077
1,132
1,038
Street railroads . .
5
12
87
69
150
167
140
Water transportation ....
94
99
96
107
138
173
169
Telephone and telegraph operators
8
206
/23
330
52
543
74
781
165
1,635
266
2 952
321
3 935
Clerks
/145
/228
/S30
/388
777
1 540
2 102
Stenographers
/S
f\\
83
111
814
609
810
Bookkeepers, cashiers and accountants. ;
Messengers and office boys and girls
/50
5
/86
6
/159
21
253
SO
484
60
731
70
930
93
Total domestic and personal service
Servants, including housekeepers and waiters. . .
Launderers, including workers in laundries
1,168
890
60
1,437
1,036
121
2,133
1,401
247
2,726
1,578
379
3,805
1,859
654
3,605
1,680
526
5,448
2624
602
Launderers not in laundries
527
894
359
Boarding and lodging housekeepers
13
19
44
71
165
133
144
Restaurant and lunchroom keepers. ....
/9
/13
19
34
61
88
165
Hotel keepers and managers
26
32
44
55
65
£6
57
3
9
26
56
112
177
310
13
25
40
67
Barbers and manicurists
24
44
84
129
194
215
374
Public service not elsewhere classified
73
107
185
260
382
642
692
Total professional service.
338
543
880
1,196
1,727
2,203
S 110
Physicians, surgeons, osteopaths and attendants
63
/62
86
'85
105
/104
132
/ISO
157
151
163
150
188
160
Dentists
8
12
17
SO
40
56
71
Trained nurses
12
82
149
294
Veterinary surgeons. . . ....
1
2
6
8
12
13
12
Lawyers, judges, abstractors, notaries
41
64
90
114
122
133
172
Lawyers and judges
/39
'60
/83
/106
115
123
161
Clergymen, religious and welfare workers
Clergymen .
44
/43
65
/63
88
/85
112
/105
134
118
168
127
211
149
Teachers and professors
127
225
847
446
615
795
1,125
4
11
16
81
Musicians and teachers of music
16
30
62
91
138
ISO
165
[ 281 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 6. — NUMBER OF PERSONS 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER IN SELECTED OCCUPATIONAL
GROUPS, 1870-1930.°— (Continued)
Occupation group
18706
1880
1890"
1900
1910
1920
1930
Actors
2
5
10
15
28
28
38
4
g
22
25
34
35
57
Authors
4
7
12
Editors and reporters ...
5
12
22
30
34
34
52
Architects
2
3
8
11
17
18
22
Designers, draftsmen and inventors
1
3
9
19
47
71
103
Technical engineers and electricians
7
8
43
93
51
209
120
349
213
507
280
Chemists and metallurgists
1
2
5
9
16
33
47
Photographers
Total gainfully occupied, 16 years and over
8
12,164
10
16,274
20
21,814
27
27,323
32
35,845
34
40,793
39
48,163
0 The figures of this table are the result of an attempt to derive presumably comparable series of figures
from the successive occupation censuses. The figures will not in all cases be found in the census reports. In a
few instances, estimates have been made by dividing figures for combined occupational groups contained
in reports of the earlier censuses, and in other instances by combining separate census figures for later years.
The composition of some of the major groups differs somewhat from that of similarly designated categories
in the recent census reports, because the recent census categories could not be carried back to the earlier years.
Other estimates and adjustments in the published census figures have been made, the more important of which
are indicated in the following footnotes.
b Figures for total occupied and for large occupation groups in 1870 are adjusted for the probable deficiency
in the population enumeration in that year.
e Figures for total occupied and for the larger occupation groups in 1890 are estimated from published figures
for gainfully occupied persons 15 years of age and over.
d Figures for farm laborers in 1910 are adjusted for supposed over-enumeration of women and children in
agriculture. The adjustment probably leaves the figures for agricultural laborers in this year still too high.
« Figure for paid farm laborers in 1920 adjusted for probable under-enumeration due to the date of the
census of that year.
/ Estimated.
The Shift from Agriculture to the City. — The most dramatic single
movement is the great migration from the farm to the city and the relative
decline in the number of agricultural workers. The increased efficiency
of farming,12 in combination with rising industrial and commercial
wage levels, the attractions of urban life and other factors have brought
about the relative decline of agricultural employment and the con-
centration of an increasing proportion of the working population in the
urban occupations of trade, manufacturing and professions. Exclusive of
children more than half of the gainfully occupied persons in 1870 were
found in the occupations of agriculture, lumbering and fishing. Although
of minor importance, lumbering and fishing have more than held their
own, while agricultural employment has declined consistently. By 1880
the proportion of this combined group to the total had dropped to 48
percent of the working population. In the two succeeding decades it fell
off still more rapidly to 36 percent of the total in 1900, and by 1930 only
21 percent of the working population were required in this underlying
basic industry which supplies the foodstuffs and an important portion
12 See Chap. II.
OCCUPATIONS
of the raw materials for the clothing and other needs of the nation.
Until 1910 the decline of agricultural employment was relative only,
owing to the more rapid growth of other industries, but since 1910 the
numbers engaged in farming have decreased absolutely as well as rela-
tively. From 1870 until 1920 farmers made use of a constantly increasing
number of horses and mules, but today the number of these animals
is smaller than for more than forty years past. With the extended use
of mechanical power tens of thousands of farmers have become machine
Manufacturing and Mechanical Industries
20
1870
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
FIG. 6. — Percentage distribution of gainfully occupied persons 16 years of age and over
among major occupational groups, 1870-1930.
operators on the farm. Artificial tractive power, gas engines, electricity
and improved implements, which render agricultural work less burden-
some but more productive, have become almost essential for successful
commercial farming. During the depression of 1930-1932 the return
to the farm of many persons seeking low cost housing and subsistence
has at least temporarily stemmed the tide of decline in rural population.
A minor gain of 648,000 in farm population for 1932 as compared to 1931
is shown by recent reports from the United States Department of
Agriculture.
Trends in Basic Industries. — The three major producing groups of
agriculture, mining and manufacturing (including construction) comprise
[ 283 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
that fraction of the population engaged in the provision of raw materials
and in their fabrication through successive stages preparatory to final
consumption. Until 1920, while agriculture declined, the working popula-
tion from all sources moved in large numbers into the factories, the build-
ing trades and the varied employments which supply the means of
transportation and communication. Since 1920 employment in mines
and factories has also ceased to expand. What change has taken place
in the stream of workers during the past decade which accounts for the
employment of those no longer needed in producing and manufacturing
physical goods? The answer may be found in the remarkable growth of
the categories which include the distributive, clerical and professional
occupations.
Before considering these groups, let us examine more carefully the
trends in the major producing groups themselves.
It will be seen from Table 7 that those dependent upon employment
in manufacture and construction have increased in number from 22 per-
cent of the total gainfully occupied in 1870 to a peak of 30 percent in
1920.13 The increased productivity of industry has made it possible for
TABLE 7. — PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GAINFULLY OCCUPIED PERSONS 16 YEARS OF
AGE AND OVER, 1870-1930
Occupation group
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
Agriculture and allied occupations
Mining
52.8
1.5
48.1
1.6
41.2
1.8
35.9
2.1
30.3
2.6
25.8
2.7
21.3
2.0
Manufacturing and mechanical industries
Trade and transportation
22.0
9 1
24.8
10 7
26.3
13 6
27.5
16 3
28.6
17.4
30.5
18 0
28.6
20.7
Clerical service
1 7
2 0
2 5
2 8
4.6
7.2
8.2
Domestic and personal service
Public service not elsewhere classified
Professional service
9.6
.6
2.7
8.8
.7
3.3
9.7
.9
4.0
10.0
1.0
4.4
10.6
1.1
4.8
8.8
1.6
5.4
11.3
1.4
6.5
Total
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
this relatively small increase in factory employment to support the
burden of mounting industrial production. The spurt in output per worker
between 1920 and 1930 was not accompanied, however, by an equally
rapid increase in the actual production and consumption of goods.
13 The 1920 census was taken at the peak of the post-war industrial expansion so that
the higher proportion of gainful workers attached to manufacturing and mechanical
industries in this year may be the result largely of the unusual activity of factory industries
at the time of that census. Notwithstanding the expansion of manufacturing in 1920, the
rapid rate of increase in manufacturing employment during the four preceding decades
appears to have fallen off somewhat from 1910 to 1920, and still more from 1920 to 1930,
as may be seen from Figure 4. The lower proportion in this category in 1930 than in 1920
is not likely to be explained by the business depression in 1930, inasmuch as the occupation
figures include normally employed workers who may be unemployed at the time of the
census. The census of 1930, moreover, was taken early in the depression period.
[ 284 ]
OCCUPATIONS
Consequently there has been a relative shrinkage in manufacturing em-
ployment and a decrease in the relative numerical importance of the
manufacturing and mechanical occupations. The numbers engaged in
construction have probably increased, but not sufficiently to counteract
the gross decline of the manufacturing and mechanical occupations.
In 1870 the extractive industries required one and one-half percent
of the total working population. Since that time the use of minerals has
become more and more indispensable and the technical progress of these
industries has kept pace with their importance. In 1920 the percentage of
gainfully employed in mines and quarries had increased to almost 3 per-
cent of the working population, while the absolute numbers employed
had increased six fold, a change which reflects especially the steady growth
in the production and consumption of coal and iron. As in manufacturing,
recent technical improvements have led to a reduction in labor require-
ments in mines and quarries so that fewer persons were attached to these
employments in 1930 than in 1920.14
In 1870 about 75 percent of the gainfully employed were engaged
in the production of physical goods, in agriculture, mining, manufacturing
and construction. In 1930 only about 50 percent of the labor supply was so
required. This reduction has been accomplished by the more effective
application of science and technology in production. Man has learned to
exploit his knowledge of chemistry and physics and he relies on the
machine and the use of steam and electric power to aid in the conversion
of nature's wealth into consumption goods.15 Thus fully one-fourth of the
nation's active labor power has been released from the processes of
physical production for other activities.
The Growth of Transportation, Trade and Clerical Work. — Numer-
ically the most important major occupational group outside the basic
producing industries is the combined category of trade and transportation
which comprises those engaged in moving, storing and selling goods — a
vast and growing army of workers in wholesale and retail trade, in
financial employments and in the public utilities which provide the
means of transportation and communication. In the simple domestic
economy man produced at home what he needed and consumed it there.
As market areas expanded goods were made for nearby distribution. A
complex modern community, however, relies upon a wide and far flung
market in disposing of its products and in obtaining goods for its own
consumption. One of the most striking aspects of recent occupational
changes is found in the growing importance of the selling and movement
of goods. The influence of the household economy still persists in the
prevalent attitude among farmers and among others who believe that
14 On productivity of mine workers, see Chap. II.
16 On chemical, physical and power inventions, see Chap. III.
[ 285 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the middleman is superfluous and should be eliminated. The statistics
seem to indicate, however, that the role of middleman is increasing
in importance despite all protestations. It may be, however, that the
efficiency of the middleman has not increased as rapidly as that of the
producer, and there may be real validity in the cry for elimination of
waste here.
The clerical and selling occupations have expanded rapidly with
the refinement and elaboration of the processes of commerce and trade.
We have seen that between 1870 and 1920 those at work in agriculture
fell in relative numbers from over half to a little more than 25 percent of
the total working population and those in manufacturing and mechanical
occupations increased from 22 to 30 percent, a combined net decline. In
1870 a scant 10 percent of the working population was sufficient for the
distribution of the combined product of the one and one-half percent who
were engaged in mining, the 22 percent in manufactures and the 52 per-
cent in agriculture, but in 1930 the diversity of industrial production and
the area of markets were so vastly extended that more than one-fifth of
the nation's workers sought a livelihood in transportation and distribu-
tion of the nation's output. Thus those engaged in trade, transportation
and communication have more than doubled in their relative numbers
in the occupied population from 1870 to 1930.
The occupations of trade fall naturally into two main subdivisions —
the commercial and the financial employments. The commercial group,
comprising the commercial travelers, the wholesale and retail dealers
and salespeople, is responsible for marketing the product of industry.
In 1880 and 1890 persons in these occupations were only one-fifth as
numerous as those in the manufacturing and mechanical group; from
1900 to 1920 there were about one-quarter as many and in 1930 one-third
as many in trade as in the manufacturing and mechanical occupations.
If real estate dealers are included with the bankers, brokers and insurance
agents, the ranks of the financial groups have expanded even more rapidly
than those of the retail and wholesale dealers and about as rapidly as
the number of salespeople and store clerks.
The expansion of the clerical group, which is scattered widely among
the fields of finance, industry and trade, has taken place in spite of the
rapid introduction of labor saving office machinery. If the clerical occupa-
tions were subdivided according to industrial classifications it would
doubtless be discovered that the number of white collar employees of
financial houses has mounted fully as rapidly as the number of sales clerks
in wholesale and retail trades. The importance of women in clerical
occupations is emphasized by the enormous growth in the number of
female stenographers from a negligible number in the seventies to a total
rapidly approaching eight hundred thousand in 1930 and in the number
[ 286 ]
OCCUPATIONS
of female salespeople and store clerks from a similar small figure in 1870
to a total of seven hundred thousand in 1930. 16 Women have also figured
NUMBER OF WORKERS
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
1880
1890
1910
1930
FIG. 7.— Growth of selected occupations, 1870-1930 — trade (gainful workers 16 years of
age and over).
16 See Figures 8 and 4 in Chap. XIV, which includes a more complete discussion of
the employment of women.
[ 287 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
prominently in the growing employment in telephone and telegraph serv-
ices and in the ranks of bookkeepers and accountants, insurance and
real estate agents. Included in the clerical group are many persons em-
NUMBER OF WORKtRO
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1880
1890
1900
1910
1930
FIG. 8. — Growth of selected occupations, 1870-1930 — clerical service (gainful workers
16 years of age and over).
ployed in the public service, the character of whose occupations is dis-
tinguishable from those in other groups only because they are explicitly
dependent upon the public payroll. The clerical or white collar employees
are quite as dependent upon modest earnings as industrial wage earners,
f 288 1
OCCUPATIONS
but they are commonly jealous of their status as a part of the middle
class. If the clerical workers are combined with those in trade and trans-
portation it is found that this composite group has almost trebled in
relative numerical importance over the seventy year period. An enormous
proportion of these persons are now at work, largely indoors in stores and
offices, most of them in sedentary occupations, keeping the accounts,
taking the orders, carrying on the correspondence, advertising, exhibiting
and selling the goods produced on the farms and in the mines, workshops
and factories.
The growing number of the occupations in finance, trade and clerical
service reflects the great elaboration of the processes of financing and
distribution which has accompanied the specialization of industry, the
minute subdivision of labor and the rise of the techniques of automatic
production. The machine revolution has completely released about 25
percent of the working population from arduous manual toil while labor
saving machinery has simultaneously lightened the physical burdens of
the wage earners remaining on farms and in the mines and factories. For
every four workers apparently displaced by increasing industrial pro-
ductivity since 1870 from two to three workers more than were then
required now find employment in the marts of trade, on the routes of
the commercial traveler, in the warehouses, shops, offices, counting
houses and miscellaneous establishments of modern business devoted
to the processes of distribution and the arts of financing and selling.
Thus every increase in physical output per man has been accompanied by
further employment in distributive pursuits and also in those occupations
where men and women spend their working hours in administration, in
planning and in the routine essential for the conduct of affairs. This
complex business superstructure rests upon a technological base of
smooth working physical plant and human skill which turns out the
material goods required; conversely the very existence and continuity
of the manual worker's job is dependent in a real and vital sense upon
the efficient functioning of the overhead administrative and distributive
organization which must arrange for the disposition of the industrial
output if the wheels of industry are to continue in operation. The accelera-
tion in the recent relative gains of the commercial employments is further
evidence of "industry's coming of age" in America, to which attention
has already been directed.
The Public Service. — The twentieth century has seen a great multipli-
cation of the functions of government. The activities of the public service
have been extended until they touch the life of the individual and the
community at innumerable points, and the number of persons required
to carry on these manifold activities has been correspondingly increased.
A major item in the cost of government is that of wages and salaries,
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
hence the taxpayer has a special interest in the number of persons the
government employs.17 From the census statistics it is difficult to gain
an exact impression of the growth of the public service. A considerable
proportion of those actually in the public service are distributed in the
manufacturing and mechanical occupations, in the clerical, professional
and other groups. Except for specific occupations the direct employees
of federal, state and city governments are not identifiable in the census
and, moreover, many persons receiving their compensation indirectly
from the state are hired directly by contractors and regard themselves
as private employees. However, the trend in public employment in the
categories which can be traced from the census reports over the period
since 1870 may furnish some idea of both the direction and the rate of the
growth in the number of public employees.18 In terms of the total gain-
fully occupied, the group of public service occupations which can be
identified during this period has expanded from 0.6 percent in 1870 to 1.6
percent in 1920 and 1.4 percent in 1930. In absolute numbers of these
public employees increased from 73,000 in 1870 to 700,000 in 1930, a
growth of 1,000 percent.
An independent estimate of the growth of the public service occupa-
tions from 1910 to 1930 has been made in connection with this study.19
Figure 9 shows that an estimated total public payroll including more than
a million and a half persons in 1910 had increased to about two and three-
quarter millions in 1930. The growth of the teaching profession tops the
list of the expanding employments within this category. It is estimated
that approximately two hundred thousand clerical workers were in the
public service in 1930 as compared with seventy-four thousand in 1910.
The growth of employment in the public service has a significance far
beyond its numbers. At one extreme the growing importance of technical
boards, bureaus and commissions is responsible for the conduct of highly
17 For discussion of wages of public employees see Chap. XXVI.
18 The group "Public service not elsewhere classified" shown in Tables 6 and 7 and in
Figures 5 and 6 above, includes soldiers and sailors, postmasters, governmental officials
and inspectors, firemen, policemen, guards, watchmen and doorkeepers, marshals, sheriffs,
etc. It omits such rapidly increasing groups as teachers, postal clerks, clerical personnel
of government offices and the large and expanding group of laborers in the various depart-
ments of local as well as state and federal governments.
19 This estimate was made primarily to determine the probable trend of governmental
employment, rather than the precise number employed. To the number included in "Public
service not elsewhere classified" as shown by the census reports for these years, additions
from other census categories consisting wholly or mainly of governmental employees were
made. The number so obtained for 1930 is a little higher than the estimate of Mosher and
Polah, 2,684,000 full time governmental employees for 1926 (see National Municipal
Review, January, 1932, vol. XXI, p. 71), and a little lower than King's estimate of 2,819,000
for 1927 (see W. I. King, The National Income and Its Purchasing Power, National Bureau
of Economic Research, New York, 1930, p. 50). Our estimate for 1920 may be somewhat
too small, since the basis for estimating the number of governmental clerical workers in
this year is not good.
[ 290 ]
OCCUPATIONS
important constructive and essential scientific and investigative work.
At the other extreme political opportunists furnish the basis for local,
state and federal machine politics, frequently with too little reference to
the best service of the public interest. The growing ranks of the permanent
civil service commonly enjoy unusual security and continuity of employ-
ment during the vicissitudes of private business. From the point of view
of the labor movement the growth of this group is significant, since
NUMBER OF WORKERS
1,000,000
100,000
Total Public Service
Teachers
Others incl.
Clerical Workers
Street Qc Sewer
Maintenance
Postal Service
Soldiers & Sailors
Guards
Officials QrJnspectors
Policemen
Pi r em en
19)0
I9ZO
1930
FIG. 9. — Growth of public service occupations, 1910-1930.
group action among them directly confronts the power and sovereignty
of the state.20
In 1910 the construction and maintenance of roads, streets and sewers
required between 200,000 and 300,000 persons. In the post-war year of
1920 this employment shrank in importance only to rise again to an
20 For further discussion of government personnel problems, see Chap. XXVII.
[ 291 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
aggregate of approximately 400,000 in 1930, partly as a result of the great
urbanization of the preceding decade. Protection of life and property
which was furnished by 60,000 policemen in 1910 now requires 150,000
of these guardians of the public peace, an increase due in no small part to
the increased seriousness of the modern traffic problem. Firemen have
increased in number at much the same rate as policemen, while the postal
service has expanded less rapidly, approximately at the same rate as the
growth of population. The 80,000 guardians of public property and the
similar number of miscellaneous officials and inspectors of 1910 have
increased at about the same rate as the total public service. The aggre-
gate public service group has nearly doubled its numbers over the 20
years, whereas the total gainfully occupied population has expanded only
34 percent in this period.21
Domestic and Personal Service. — Although domestic and personal
service has shown a smaller degree of relative change than any other major
category over the entire seventy year period22 there has been a sharp
absolute increase in employment in this group between 1920 and 1930,
apparently compensating for the decline in these occupations from 1910
to 1920. However, the total numbers in domestic and personal service
somewhat obscure the real situation. In 1870 more than three-quarters
of this group was made up of household servants and waiters, whereas
in 1930 the proportionate number of such servants had declined until
they comprised less than half of the total group. Today there are fewer
household servants per capita than at any earlier period. The unpopu-
larity of domestic employment is reflected in the recent reputed scarcity
of domestic servants in most American cities. Meanwhile the increased
popularity of residential hotel and apartment house living is reflected
in the phenomenal increase in the number of janitors, laundry workers,
elevator operators, boarding and lodging house keepers, restaurant,
cafe and lunchroom keepers, hotel keepers and managers. Launderers
and laundresses not in commercial establishments are dwindling in num-
ber. The modern American shows a growing preference for many servants
rather than few, but he prefers them to be specialists, desires few on a full
time basis and seeks an increasing variety of personal services away from
his own premises. The decentralization of the household of which these
trends are symptomatic has brought a greater degree of freedom to the
housewife and has diminished the importance of the home as a workshop.23
For those performing these services the relative decline of household
21 It is unfortunate that the size of the growing public establishments cannot be deter-
mined more accurately from the census statistics and from the current statistics of
employment. These throw practically no light on the magnitude and distribution of the
public payroll in the varied operations of federal, state and local governments.
22 See Figure 5, p. 280.
23 For further discussion, see Chap. XIII.
[ 292 1
OCCUPATIONS
NUMBER OF WORKERS
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1870 (880 1690 1900
1920 1930
FIG. 10. — Growth of selected occupations, 1870-1930 — domestic and personal service
(gainful workers 16 years of age and over).
[ 293 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
service has brought the elimination of much of the "twenty-four hour
employment" so frequently characteristic of domestic work, while the
institutionalization of personal service has given the worker greater
freedom and contact with his fellows.
Professional Service. — The heterogeneous professional employments
have undergone a pronounced expansion which repays careful study.24
These groups furnish the highly technical skills required in modern life
and they include the growing group of intellectuals and experts in all
fields of human activity. Many new technical and artistic professions
have been created in recent years. The complexity of modern life has
enhanced the importance and attractiveness of scientific and intellectual
pursuits. This group will be discussed in greater detail below.
III. SELECTED OCCUPATIONAL CHANGES
In the preceding section the major shifts in occupations have been
sketched in broad outline. Attention will now be given to the changes in
the nature of the work within several of the major groups.
Character of Occupations and Basic Industries. — We have pointed
out that the mechanization of agriculture has lessened the rigors of
farming where it has been mechanized. The work of the agriculturalist
can now be done on a large scale with the aid of highly developed ma-
chinery and artificial power. Among the effects of the modernization of
farming is the decrease in the number of farm laborers per farmer. The
census figures for recent decades indicate that there has also been a rapid
diminution of the unpaid family labor which has traditionally constituted
so large a part of the farm labor supply. With new methods of farming
and new social standards the farmer's wife now does rather less of the
work than formerly and fewer of the sons and daughters remain at home
to share responsibility for farm work.
Attention has been called to the growth of employment in the extrac-
tion of minerals up to 1920 and to the decline in the subsequent decade.
Although the mechanization of coal mines has lagged behind that of the
iron and non-ferrous metal mines, the recent extension of mechanical
methods in underground operations and more effective economies in
the industrial use of fuels have led to an absolute decline of more than one
hundred thousand in the number of workers dependent upon the mining
industries, and a relative decline of 0.7 percent in extractive employments
as a whole during the decade of the 1920's. Coupled with the economic
sickness of the coal industry the decline in the unit labor requirements in
mining means hardship in hundreds of coal miners' villages. The recent
growth of the oil and gas industries has introduced new unskilled and semi-
skilled employments which are light and not particularly disagreeable in
24 See Figure 14 on page 300, and relevant text.
[ 294 ]
OCCUPATIONS
character, but the expansion of these industries has not offset the general
decline of opportunity for work in the extraction of minerals.25
NUMBER OF WORKERS
10,000,000
1,000.000
100,000
\890
1900
»9»0
4920
1930
FIG. 11. — Growth of agricultural, lumbering and fishing occupations, 1870-1930 (gainful
workers 16 years of age and over).
Still more pervasive are the qualitative changes in the manufacturing
and mechanical occupations which have been brought about by techno-
logical advance. The great expansion in manufacturing took place be-
26 For further discussion of changes in mining, see Chap. II.
f 295 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tween 1870 and 1910 when the number of persons in the manufacturing
and mechanical trades increased from less than 2,750,000 to 10,250,000.
From 1910 to 1920 the numbers in these occupations continued to grow
from 10,250,000 to 13,750,000. The increase in the first of the past
two decades was slightly greater than in the second. The mechanical
and manufacturing group includes the construction workers and the hand
trades, many of which (such as the plumbers and cobblers) have shown
great resistance to change. It is impossible to separate the factory workers
from the census statistics for the larger group, but it is among their ranks
HUMBER OF WORKERS
1,000,000
100,000
1900
I9M)
1930
FIG. 12. — Growth of mining occupations, 1870-1930 (gainful workers 16 years of age and
over) .
that the most far reaching changes have taken place in the nature of
the work performed. In the shops and factories old jobs have continually
become obsolete and new ones have appeared; old tools and methods have
become inadequate and thousands of former handicrafts have been first
converted into tasks auxiliary to machine operation in semi-automatic
production, and then into machine operations.26 In the building trades
the new technology has invaded the domain of the construction workers
26 See Chap. XVI.
OCCUPATIONS
and the amount of hand work has been significantly reduced, but the
highly skilled crafts still remain substantially intact, though not exempt
from the threat of new processes and new materials.27
NUMBER OF WORKERS
(0,000,000
WOCO.OOO
100,000
1670
1880
»890
1900
4910
tsto
1930
FIG. 13. — Growth of selected occupations, 1870-1930 — transportation (gainful workers
16 years of age and over).
27 See W. G. Haber, Industrial Relations in the Building Industry, Harvard University,
1930, pp. 27-48.
[ 297 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
There has been great expansion in the number of persons attached to
the public utility industries between 1910 and 1930. These are the workers
responsible for a continuous supply of gas, electric light and power for
streets, homes, workshops and factories. Employees of the railroads,
telephone and telegraph companies also belong in this category. A com-
mon characteristic of this group is that the continuous maintenance of
service is incumbent upon these enterprises.
The occupational trends in transportation and communication are
portrayed in Figure 13. Steam railroad employment rose unchecked until
1910, when a relative decline set in, followed by an absolute decline
during the decade of the 1920's. Although operating and maintenance
crews must be kept intact for the maintenance of service in the face of
declining freight and passenger traffic, the number of persons employed
in that industry declined 12 percent between 1920 and 1930.28 Water
transportation lagged in importance until after 1900, but between 1910
and 1920 it gained considerably at the expense of the railroads which
had hopelessly vanquished it in the preceding century. During the three
decades following the first introduction of electric cars a rapidly increasing
number of persons were required in the operation of street railways, but
as in the case of the steam railroads the number needed in this employ-
ment fell off relatively between 1910 and 1920 and absolutely during
the 1920's. The doubling in the number of employees in non-rail street
transportation from 1920 to 1930 reflects the rapid growth in the number
of taxicab and truck drivers. During the entire period employment in
non-rail street traffic follows closely the general curve for trade and
transportation. Transportation affords employment which is in general
less arduous than the tasks in manufacturing industries, with more out-
door work than in the general category of trade.29
Racial Shifts in Industries. — Meanwhile the racial composition of
the industrial labor supply has changed significantly. Immigration which
had declined during the Civil War increased during the early 1870's
and dropped again at the close of that decade. A sharp rise in the early
1880's was followed by a slump, which was accentuated during the lean
years of the 1890's. This was followed by an unprecedented influx
largely from southeastern Europe, mounting steadily from 1900 to 1907.
From 1907 to 1914 there was only one year in which the volume of immi-
gration sank below the high peak of 1882. In their native countries the
great majority of the later immigrants had been engaged in relatively
unskilled occupations, as common laborers or as agricultural workers.
In their new environment most of them entered the ranks of unskilled
labor, few finding employment in their accustomed occupations. The
28 See Table 6, p. 281.
29 For a discussion of shifts in means of transportation, see Chap. IV.
[ 298 ]
OCCUPATIONS
southern Europeans who entered the United States in these years have been
found in all industries. They are especially concentrated in factory em-
ployment, coal mining, railroad maintenance and in construction work.
The period of immigration restriction has seen a general improvement
of the occupational status of the foreign born whites in the heavy indus-
tries. During the 1920's there was a heavy influx of Mexicans and of
southern Negroes into the unskilled employments of the manufacturing
industries in northern cities.30
In 1910 Negroes accounted for less than one in every ten of all em-
ployable males over 10 years of age, while approximately two in ten were
foreign born whites. During the next decade the Negroes decreased in
relative importance in the population, and there was a drop in the pro-
portion of Negro males gainfully employed. However, there was a strik-
ing increase in the number of Negroes in the northern industrial areas,
especially in the iron and steel industry, in the petroleum refineries,
in the foundries industry, in the metal trades and in the food industries.
These changes reflect a large scale displacement of foreign born whites
by colored labor. The Negro has not advanced readily into the semi-
skilled and skilled pursuits.31
Management and the Entrepreneur. — The number of proprietors
and officials in various branches of enterprise has expanded with the
growth of industry and trade. The growth in their numbers in the manu-
facturing industry in recent years reflects the recent refinement and
multiplication of the functions of management. During the boom period
following the war there was a marked expansion of "general staff" in
many large scale manufacturing corporations, including a growth in the
number of personnel workers, industrial statisticians, management and
marketing experts and specialists of various kinds attached to individual
concerns.
It is difficult to separate the "self-employed," in technical language
the entrepreneurs, from those working for wages and salaries. Gainful
workers of this class differ from others in that they assume directly the
risks of their own employment instead of receiving a fixed rate of com-
pensation from an employer. According to a recent estimate, entre-
preneurs comprise roughly 10 percent of the total gainfully occupied
population. The proportion of this group to the total working population
has declined slightly during the past twenty years.32 Between 60 and 70
percent of all entrepreneurs are farmers, a very large proportion of whom
30 See Jerome, Harry, Migration and Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic
Research, New York, 1926.
31 On racial groups in industry, see Chap. XI. For discussion of the Negro, see Dutcher,
Dean, The Negro in Modern Industrial Society; an Analysis of Changes in the Occupations
of Negro Workers, 1910-1920, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, 1930.
32 See King, op. cit., pp. 48-52; pp. 62-64.
[ 299 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
NUMBER OF WORKERS
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1070
I860 1890
1900
1910
1930
FIG. 14. — Growth of selected occupations, 1870-1930 — professional service (gainful
workers 16 years of age and over).
300 ]
OCCUPATIONS
are independent workers without hired help. Next in numerical impor-
tance are the merchants, including a vast number of small shopkeepers.
The growth in this group is reflected in the figures for wholesale and retail
dealers as given above in Table 6 and Figure 7. With the growth of cor-
porate enterprise the individual entrepreneur outside of agriculture ap-
pears to be declining in importance. This means that the risk bearing
of the typical modern enterprise is broken up among groups of stock-
holders, frequently numbering thousands of security owners. Ownership
which is thus divorced from active control represents to the average
person a channel for the investment of savings, while the earnings of
those formerly self-employed are derived to an increasing extent from
salaries or wages.
The Professions. — Internal changes in the professional group have a
special significance. This group as a whole is now almost ten times as
large as in 1870. Changes in individual professions are shown in Figure
14 which portrays the steady growth of some of the older professions
and the rapid expansion of some of the newer ones. In a special sense the
machine age is the creation of the technical engineers, whose numbers,
(excluding electricians) have increased from 7,000 in 1870 to a total of
more than 226,000 in 1930. Designers, draftsmen and inventors have
increased in number still more rapidly than the engineers. The 2,000
architects engaged in the professional designing of the American build-
ings of 1870 were probably more adequate in number for their task than
the 22,000 confronted by the vast scale and diversity of modern construc-
tion in 1930. That the scientific age of metals was still in its infancy at
the end of the Civil War is attested by increase of chemists and metal-
lurgists from a negligible 772 in 1870 to almost 50,000 in 1930. The num-
ber of physicians and surgeons has grown from 62,000 in 1870 to 160,000
in 1930. Since 1910 the growth of the medical profession has failed to
keep pace with that of the population. The relative decline in the number
of physicians has been partially offset by the remarkable recent growth
of hospital facilities and personnel. The serious aspect of this lag lies,
however, in the inadequate geographic distribution of physicians. Mean-
while the number of dentists has been multiplied nine fold.33 In the settle-
ment of disputes and in dealing with the many complexities of business,
domestic and social affairs the American people now maintain a growing
legal profession of more than three hundred thousand lawyers, judges
and others whose services are employed to facilitate the observance
or the elucidation of the law. Many other specialties, minor in the numer-
ical sense, have arisen, as for example the profession of librarian which
has attained its present sizable total of over thirty thousand since 1870.
33 See also discussion in Chap. XXI.
f 301 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Today there are ten newspapermen where there was one in 1870. During
the 1920's alone the number of editors and reporters increased more
than 50 percent. The group of professional authors grew from inconse-
quential proportions to a substantial total of twelve or thirteen thousand
in 1930, twice the number enumerated in 1920. The nearly 60,000
artists of today may be compared with 4,000 at the beginning of this
period, and again the largest part of this increase has come since 1920.
The American public now supports 40,000 actors as against 2,000 in
1870, and 165,000 musicians as contrasted with 16,000 in 1870. Although
CENT
Manufacturing and Mechan
1870
1680
1690
1900
1910
1920
FIG. 15. — Percentage distribution of gainfully occupied children, by major occupational
groups, 1870-1930.
the census figures do not furnish convincing proof that the artistic in-
terests of the people have kept pace with the concentration of urban
population during the seventy year period, they do give evidence of
substantial recent gains which hold promise for the future.34 The ten-fold
increase of the teaching profession hardly measures adequately the
growth in education, since the pressure of the school population upon
the supply of teachers and the supply of public funds is a critical aspect
of the present educational situation. Of more than one million persons
34 See Chap. XIX.
[ 302 ]
OCCUPATIONS
now engaged in teaching perhaps 90 percent are dependent upon employ-
ment in the public schools. In 1870 the census of occupations found
84,000 women in the teaching profession; in 1930 there were over 880,-
000 women listed as teachers and professors including an absolute in-
crease of 230,000 since 1920.35
Child Labor. — The decline of children's work since the turn of the
century has been briefly noted above. The census figures indicate that of
boys between the ages of 10 and 15, 26 percent were customarily employed
in 1890 and 1900 and only 6 percent in 1930. Gainful occupation among
females of the same ages dropped from 10 to 3 percent during the same
years. This is an aggregate decline of the employment of children be-
tween these ages from 18 percent in 1890 to 5 percent in 1930. The
internal changes in the distribution of juvenile labor are shown in Figure
15. Between 1870 and 1920 an increasing proportion of children at work
outside of agriculture has been employed in the manufacturing indus-
tries, but this percentage has markedly diminished between 1920 and
1930 as a result of the greater prevalence and more rigid enforcement
of child labor legislation. The relative increase of child labor in trade,
transportation and clerical service is partly explained by the growing
number of delivery boys, messenger boys and office boys, many of whom
are in school during part of the year. Employment of children in domestic
and personal service has steadily diminished. Throughout the period
between 60 and 70 percent of the employment of minors has been on the
farm where boys at an early age "hire out" or take the place of hired
labor on the home farm. The relative increase in juvenile employment in
agriculture since 1920 is explained by the more rapid shrinkage in the
number of child workers in other employments. Figure 16 shows by
major occupations the growth of juvenile employment up to 1900. In
the next decade a decided decline appeared in every category except
TABLE 8. — PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG ADULTS GAINFULLY OCCUPIED, BY AGE
AND SEX, 1920 AND 1930
A __
1920
1930
Age
Total
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
10 to 13 years
4 4
6 0
2 8
2 4
3 3
1 5
14 years. .
12 6
16 9
8 2
6 6
9 2
4 0
15 years
1 6 years
22.8
39.5
30.4
51.3
15.4
27.9
11.9
24.8
16.3
32.7
7.6
17.0
50 3
65 0
35 7
38 8
49 9
27 5
18 and 19 years
60 0
78 3
42 3
55 3
70 7
40 5
20 to 24 years
63 9
91 0
38 1
65.7
89.9
42 4
35 See discussion on school enrollment below, p. 305.
[ 303 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
trade and transportation and clerical service, both of which declined after
1920.36 Except in agriculture, children under the age of sixteen now
constitute less than 1 percent of the total employment in each of the
specified major groups. How far we have moved since the earlier years
is shown by the fact that 10 percent of all workers in domestic and
NDEX NUMBER
JOO
1870 1080 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
FIG. 16. — Children in major occupational groups, 1870-1930 (relative growth curves
superimposed at 1870).
personal service in 1870 were under the age of sixteen. As shown in Table
8, since 1920 there has been a marked decline in the employment of
younger workers both below and above the age of sixteen.37
IV. THE NON-GAINFULLY OCCUPIED
We have seen that only a little over 60 percent of the population
share in the nation's work, in gainful employment or as housewives.
What do the people do who are not at work? We know of course that
some are chronically ill or otherwise physically incapacitated, that
many are children too young to work and that others are too old; some
36 The published census figures for children in agriculture in 1910 have been adjusted
as already explained. See footnote d to Table 6.
37 For further discussion of child labor, see Chap. XV.
f 304 1
OCCUPATIONS
are in school and some are in prisons while still others are confined in
homes for the feeble minded and in the hospitals for the insane. A brief
description of the distribution of the non-gainfully occupied population
will be of interest.
The School Population. — Of greatest consequence is the increase in
the school population of the United States which is revealed in Table I.38
From 1919 to 1928 the number in school increased by more than six
millions, exclusive of kindergarten enrollment. This imposing figure
includes pupils of all ages from the primary grades through the colleges.
Growth has been proportionately much more rapid in the secondary
schools and the universities and colleges than in the elementary schools
and several million persons have thus been removed from full time
gainful employment by the increased popularity of non-compulsory
higher education. Of course this school population will show a direct
relation to the expansion of the professional and managerial employ-
ments for which general education and technical training are required.
TABLE 9. — PERSONS ATTENDING SCHOOL AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION 5 TO 20
YEARS OF AGE, 1870 TO 1930a
Population group
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
Total population
45.5
54 3
52 0
51 5
60 5
65.5
72.6
White
51.2
58.2
55.4
54.5
62.6
67.0
74.3
Negro
9.2
32.5
32.0
31.3
45.4
54.0
61.7
0 It should be noted that persons attending school include some under five years and some over twenty
years. For the earlier years the numbers below five and above twenty years are not available separately but
are believed to affect the percentages comparatively little; their influence becomes greater, however, in the
later years, especially in 1930. In 1920 persons of from five to twenty years of age attending school were 64.3
percent of all persons within these age limits as compared with the percentage 65.5 shown in the table; in 1930
69.9 percent as compared with 72.6 shown in the table.
According to the census enumerations the ratio of all persons attending
school to the total population of ages 5 to 20 has increased from 45
to 73 percent from 1870 to 1930, as shown in Table 9. For the white popula-
tion this ratio increased from 51 percent in 1870 to 74 percent in 1930.
Five years after the close of the Civil War only 10 percent of the Negro
population between the ages of 5 and 20 were attending school, according
to the census. By 1880, during the reconstruction period, this percentage
had leaped to 33 percent and thereafter it remained substantially un-
changed until 1910 when 45 percent of the colored population in this
age group were recorded among the school population, the same propor-
tion as that for both white and colored in 1870. Recent progress in
eliminating illiteracy among the colored people is shown by the continued
See also Chap. VII.
305
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
rapid increase in the rates of school attendance among Negroes during
the past two decades.
Institutional Population.— The upward trend in the proportion of the
adult population in institutions has already been noted. The details of
the growing number of these dependents in institutions are shown in
Table 10 and Figure 17.39
Of those not in gainful pursuits, a good many are cared for by society
in institutions such as homes for the aged, county poorhouses, insane
asylums, institutions for the feeble minded, reformatories for children,
hospitals for the sick, and the like. These are the persons most commonly
INDEX NUMBER
1,000
500
1690
1900
1910
1930
FIG. 17. — Estimated growth of institutional population, 16 years of age and over, 1890-
1930.
thought of as dependents.40 The statistics show that those confined in
institutions of this type form an extremely small percentage of the total
dependent population. According to the present estimate, persons of
working age in institutions were 1.6 percent of the total population in
1930, whereas all children under 16, most of whom are dependent, were
39 These estimates for the years of the population censuses are based primarily on the
data of the special censuses of institutional population made in 1890, 1904, 1910 and 1928.
In extending the figures to 1930 use has been made of the recent annual data of the Bureau
of the Census for institutions for feeble minded and epileptic, mental hospitals, and prisons
and also of reports of institutional population of state welfare departments. Like other
estimates of this chapter the intent of the figures is to gauge general tendencies rather than
to indicate the precise numbers of the persons designated. The figures relate only to institu-
tional population 16 years of age and over and, therefore, omit the large number of younger
children in institutions for dependent and neglected children.
40 See discussion in Chap. XXIV.
[ 306 1
OCCUPATIONS
31 percent of the total population. The sick and aged dependents cared
for at home greatly outnumber those in institutions. The use of these
institutions is increasing, however, and this is indicative of the highly
developed character of civilization in the United States. In more primi-
tive cultures such institutions were not established and many of these
groups of persons could not survive the forces of natural selection; in
other cultures the family is commonly the only institution which takes
care of these groups.
TABLE 10. — ESTIMATED TREND OF INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER,
1890-1930
(In thousands)
Type of institution
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
Institutions for feeble minded and epileptic.
Mental hospitals ....
4
74
8
' 122
16
188
32
245
54
320
Institutions for juvenile delinquents
Prisons
5
67
8
77
11
99
13
103
16
140
28
68
104
106
106
67
76
82
77
81
Total ...
245
359
500
576
717
Percent of total population 16 years and
over
0.62
0.74
0.82
0.82
0 84
Our estimates of institutional population should be interpreted with
caution. They do not represent the total number of dependents in society,
for many are still cared for by their families; nor do they indicate the
growth of feeblemindedness, insanity and other defects in the population.
Not all the insane are in mental hospitals, while pensions for the aged
are maintaining an increasing number of dependent old people outside
of institutions. The increase of institutional populations is the result of
many factors including growth in the absolute number of dependents,
increase in the collective responsibility of society and possibly the break-
down of the family as a protective institution.
The Housewife. — It is an anomaly that the housewife as distinguished
from the paid housekeeper is regarded in all census tabulations as "not
gainfully occupied. " Only housewives who report some occupation other
than unpaid domestic work are included by the census among the produc-
tive workers. In 1920 the Census Bureau estimated that 22,500,000
women, who constituted 66 percent of the female population 16 years
of age and over, were "home housekeepers not gainfully occupied."
This left 24 percent of the female population in gainful pursuits and 4
percent in school or college, with the remainder unaccounted for.41
41 See U. S. Bureau of the Census, Joseph A. Hill, Women in Gainful Occupations, 1870
to 1920, Census Monograph IX, 1929, p. 6.
[ 307 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Little reflection is required to discover that the great number of women
who are managing homes and rearing children are among the great-
est producers of physical and intangible wealth. The economic impor-
tance of the housewife's work is suggested by the number of commercial
enterprises which are now attempting to compete with her in satisfying
the family needs. Of all classes in the community she is the most eagerly
sought by the advertiser.42 In the "backward art of spending" to which
Wesley C. Mitchell has called attention the housewives are the purchasing
agents who perform for the household a skilled service which is well paid
for in commercial enterprise. Without question she is as indispensable
for the economic and physical well being of the community as are those
employed directly for monetary rewards.
V. OCCUPATIONAL INSECURITY AND UNEMPLOYMENT
The major changes in the distribution of occupations and in the
nature of work during six decades have been sketched rapidly in
the preceding pages. We have pointed out that the satisfactions of the
worker's life are intimately dependent upon the nature of his employ-
ment. One of the most important aspects of any trade or calling is the
degree of security which it affords. Regularity of employment, con-
tinuity of earning power and security at retirement are at least as im-
portant to the worker as the nature of the tasks which he performs.
Thus far this chapter has considered the data of occupations, rather
than of employment; that is, it has dealt with the size and character
of the whole of labor groups irrespective of the degree to which these
groups have had work or lacked it. In what follows we shall attempt
to uncover any trends that may exist in the security of occupations
and of employment.
Interdependence a Factor of Insecurity. — A survey of the census
figures has revealed that a constantly increasing number of highly dif-
ferentiated occupations is a leading feature of the shifting work pattern
of the population. These changes bring a continual increase in the inter-
dependence of tasks and in turn the security of occupations is affected by
the ease with which the economic machine can be put out of gear. Just
as an intricate mechanical contrivance stops working when any important
single part ceases to perform its task, so in the modern economic system
a delicate working balance between the interdependent parts is necessary
if continuity of employment and relative security for the worker are to
be maintained.
In earlier days an abundance of free land offered opportunity to
anyone who might wish to cast his lot with the pioneer. This alternative
for the insecure and dissatisfied has now been removed. Today few
42 See Chap. XVII.
f 308 1
OCCUPATIONS
individuals are so fortunate that they can turn to direct self-support
if opportunity for customary employment disappears. Even the nominally
self-employed, among whom the farmers predominate, find it difficult
to secure the means of life during periods of depressed business. Modern
agriculture is an integral part of the exchange system and the depression
in rural America has struck a heavy blow at the farmer as a merchant,
not as a producer. It is still true that a farmer could eke out a minimum
of subsistence without much dependence upon the exchange system even
though this recourse is fraught with hardship. But the agriculturalists
are the only ones who possess this alternative. Partial direct support
in industrial communities is sometimes attempted by means of individual
truck gardens or by the cooperative cultivation of village plots, but in
the main such a course is not available for the industrial and com-
mercially occupied population in urban areas. In extremity the land
still offers a minimum of security which the city does not provide.
The tradesman and the clerk of today are dependent upon the flow
of physical goods from shops and factories and therefore upon the main-
tenance of the purchasing power in the community. In turn, the industrial
worker is dependent upon the well being of his fellows and of others in
the population who must buy the product of his industry if he is to
remain employed. Each group among the gainfully occupied is dependent
physically and financially upon the work of others, upon the maintenance
of their buying capacity and the proper occupational distribution of
the working population. Productive industry cannot distribute or con-
sume its own product and the commercially occupied population cannot
directly satisfy its own physical needs. This interdependence is the basis
of the major unemployment problem of today.
Unemployment. — It is not the task of this chapter to analyze the
causes of unemployment. Suffice it to say that alternating shrinkage
and expansion of employment opportunity is a characteristic feature
of modern industry. Seasonal unemployment is familiar enough in
many trades and in all large communities. In building and in other
lines large numbers of workers find it necessary to accumulate their
own reserves against the recurring hazards of irregularity. The succes-
sion of the changing seasons is of course predictable and their impact
on unemployment can be foreseen to a great extent. Although many
techniques have been advanced for combating seasonal unemployment,43
a careful study has indicated that seasonal instability, far from being
under control, has actually increased in recent years.44 The most serious
unemployment of modern times has accompanied the recurring periods
43 See Smith, Edwin S., Reducing Seasonal Unemployment, New York, 1931.
44 See Kuznets, Simon S., Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade, National Bureau
of Economic Research, New York, 1932.
[ 309 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of business depression. Seasonal changes are most aggravating when
they accentuate unemployment during the downswings of cyclical
changes. There are many conflicting theories regarding the characteristic
period, the underlying causes and possible remedies of the cycle, for
this is perhaps the most baffling factor of instability in the modern
industrial system.45
Quite different from the seasonal and cyclical causes of unemployment
are the long time changes in the structure of industry and the permanent
shifts in the opportunities for employment which have been discussed
at some length. In recognition of the direct displacement of labor which
may follow in the wake of new machines and greater productivity there
has been much talk in recent years of the growing seriousness of techno-
logical unemployment. But the competition between machines and labor
is not new. Since the beginnings of the industrial revolution the literature
is replete with discussion of the loss of employment because of the
machine. Except as a name for immediate, local and frequently tem-
porary labor displacement the term technological unemployment is
probably a misnomer. Technology is only one cause of reduction in the
amount of labor time required for each unit of production. Among other
causes are improvements in the efficiency of management, greater skill or
greater effort on the part of workers, greater regularity in the flow of
work, regularization of markets and a host of other factors which may
contribute to the increased efficiency of organization and operation.
Technological improvements frequently open up new opportunity for
enlarged employment by reducing unit costs so that the market for the
product can be expanded. Changes in consumption habits and shifts in
market demand, in turn may have a dislocative effect on employment
similar to that of increased productivity. The impact of technical changes
upon employment may be felt in either one or both of two ways — (1) in
a shift in the type of worker required in a given industry, or (2) in a
temporary or permanent reduction in the number of workers required.
By causing shifts in necessary tasks the introduction of new techniques
may affect the identity of the unemployed without affecting their
numbers.
The operation of these factors is illustrated by the history of employ-
ment and technological changes in the heavy iron and steel industry. If
the 1929 tonnage of iron and steel could have been manufactured with
the techniques and equipment of 1890, approximately a million and a
quarter men would have been required in blast furnaces, steel works and
rolling mills instead of the actual employment of four hundred thousand.
At the efficiency level of 1900 eight hundred thousand men would have
been needed for the 1929 production. It would be absurd to say that
46 Compare with Chap. XVI.
[ 310 ]
OCCUPATIONS
workers have been displaced in such numbers by the increased produc-
tivity in the iron and steel industry since 1890, yet precisely this argu-
ment is frequently advanced to prove the severity of technological
unemployment. Except for the depression years, actual employment in
blast furnaces, steel works and rolling mills has increased consistently
until the highest point in the history of the industry was reached in 1929.
This expanding employment was made possible by the mounting produc-
tion of iron and steel products and the continued extension of the market
for these products. If technique had not changed, production could not
OF EMPLOVEC5
MILLION POPULATION
THOUSAND EMPLOYEES
FACTORY
EMPLOYMENT
STEAM RAILROAD
EMPLOYMENT
FIG. 18. — Trend of factory employment and of steam railroad employment, 1919-1931,
compared with population growth.
Factory employment: Federal Reserve Board index adjusted to biennial census of manufactures; base, 1928
to 1925 = 100.
Steam railroad employment: Actual employment as reported by United States Interstate Commerce
Commission for Class I railroads.
have advanced eight-fold during this period. However, it is doubtful
whether such expansion of production and markets can continue indefi-
nitely in the basic industries or in manufacturing industry as a whole. If
not, the further advance of productivity may be accompanied by an
aggregate displacement of labor instead of the mere reduction in unit
labor requirements which in the past has usually been followed by an
absolute expansion of employment. But our ignorance of the rate of
absorption in the expanding or new industries is such that quantitative
prediction cannot be made.
The Recent Trends in Industrial Employment. — It has been shown
above that the number of persons in manufacturing and mechanical
occupations has declined relative to the total gainfully occupied popula-
t 311 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tion between 1920 and 1930. During the decade preceding 1930 the trend
of actual employment in manufacturing industry was downward for the
first time in our history. This was likewise true of steam railroads. As
shown in Table 11 and Figure 18, employment comparisons for the census
years 1920 and 1930 reflect the appearance of exaggerated depressional
unemployment in these industries in 1930. This failure of factory and
railroad employment to advance is especially significant since the gain-
fully occupied population increased from 42,600,000 to 48,800,000 during
TABLE 11. — TREND OF FACTORY AND OF STEAM RAILROAD EMPLOYMENT, 1919-1930
Year
Factories
Steam railroads
Average number
of wage earners
employed
Index of number
of workers
employed
Average number
of employees*
Index of number
of workers
employed
1919
1920
1921
69,000,059
9,094,000
&6.946.570
7,600,000
68,778,156
8,115,000
*8,384,261
8,553,000
«-8,349,755
8,300,000
&8,838,743
7,500,000
6,600,000
99.0
100.0
76.4
83.6
96.5
89.2
92.2
94.1
91.8
91.3
97.2
82.5
72.6
1,913,000
2,013,000
1,661,000
1,645,000
,880,000
,777,000
,769,000
,806,000
,761,000
,680,000
,686,000
,511,000
,278,000
95.0
100.0
82.5
81.7
93.4
88.3
87.9
89.7
87.5
83.5
83.8
75.1
63.5
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931 . . .
0 From U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission reports for Class I railroads.
6 From U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures (biennial). Figures in this column not from Cen-
sus are estimated from Federal Reserve Board index of factory employment.
these years. It appears probable that a smaller average employment in
manufacturing industries was supported by a larger labor reserve in 1930
than in 1920. Many persons still regard themselves as part of these
industries long after re-employment in old occupations has become
unlikely. Instances are known in which the former workers in an aban-
doned manufacturing town refuse to seek employment elsewhere, unable
or unwilling to believe that factory doors will not reopen.
Estimated Trends in the Volume of Unemployment. — It is unfortu-
nate that no direct and reliable statistics are available to show the trend
of unemployment in the United States, for it is of the utmost importance
to know whether in the long run changes in the industrial organization
are increasing or decreasing the risk of unemployment for the worker.
The only accurate method of measuring regularly the trend of unemploy-
ment is through current registration of the unemployed, which has been
achieved only in countries where registration in public employment
[ 312 ]
OCCUPATIONS
exchanges is prerequisite to the payment of unemployment benefits. In
this country no periodic records of unemployment of this sort are obtain-
able and the only way in which the probable trend of unemployment may
be determined is by means of estimates based on the information of the
census concerning the numbers of normally gainfully occupied persons
and scattered direct or indirect evidence of the changes in the amount of
employment in various industries. Several estimates of the fluctuations
of unemployment in successive years have been prepared by means of
these indirect methods. The elaborate estimates of Paul H. Douglas
have yielded approximate unemployment percentages for the years
from 1897 to 1926, which have been used in Table 12.46 The table shows
that periods of considerable unemployment have been by no means
TABLE 12. — PERCENTAGE FLUCTUATIONS FROM THE AVERAGE OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN
MINING, MANUFACTURING, BUILDING AND TRANSPORTATION, 1897-1926°
(Average 1897-1926 = 100)
Year
Percentage
above and
below average
Year
Percentage
above and
below average
Year
Percentage
above and
below average
1897
+77
1907
—32
1917
— 41
1898
+66
1908
+61
1918
— 46
1899...
+ 3
1909
-12
1919
— 82
1900
_ 2
1910
—29
1920
— 29
1901
—26
1911
— 8
1921
+127
1902
—33
1912
—31
1922
+ 80
1903
—31
1913 .
— 19
1923
— 22
1904
— i
1914
+61
1924
+ 18
1905
—34
1915
+53
1925
— 12
1906
—42
1916
-38
1926
— 26
a As computed from estimates of unemployment made by Paul H. Douglas.
uncommon since 1896. The source of data vary in degree of accuracy over
this period, and hence it is difficult to make precise comparisons of the
extent of unemployment in the different depressions or in normal times.
In April, 1930, a national census of unemployment was taken in
connection with the enumeration of the population. As a result there is
now available for the first time a comprehensive picture of the extent and
distribution of unemployment in all occupations and throughout the
country.47 The count was taken when the downward swing of business
46 See Douglas, Paul H., Real Wages in the United States, 1890-1926, Boston, 1930, pp.
405-450.
47 In the population censuses of 1890, 1900 and 1910, attempt was made to determine
the amount of working time lost during the year preceding the census by all gainful workers.
The accuracy of these data have been open to doubt and the data for 1910 were never tabu-
lated by the Bureau of the Census. From their nature, these data do not show the volume
of unemployment at any given time, and partly on this account they have been little used
by students of unemployment.
[313 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
activity from the peak of 1929 was considerably less than half way into
the trough of 1931 and 1932. The census revealed an aggregate unemploy-
ment of 3,138,000 persons in two main classes: Class A, which comprises
the great majority of the unemployed, consisting of persons out of a job
though able to work and looking for work, and Class B, which is composed
of persons still having jobs but laid off without pay. Class B also includes
persons who, though unemployed on the date of the enumeration, were
working short time on a plan of staggered work, but this class excludes
entirely workers who were unemployed because of sickness or other
personal reasons. The returns indicate that 6.6 percent of the gainfully
occupied men and women were on the date of the census out of work
through no desire or disability of their own.
Unemployment in Class A alone in April, 1930, as shown by the
census figures, had reached a total of a little less than two and a half
million persons. Since that time unemployment in the industries for which
fairly satisfactory indexes of employment are available has apparently
increased by almost 20 percent. In ordinary times it is assumed that many
employees dropped from these industries may find employment in other
occupations, but the depression of 1931-1932 has been so severe that it is
inconceivable that this shrinkage in employment could be absorbed when
all lines of activity were undergoing severe curtailment. If the probable
increase of unemployment in the other "unknown" industries is held to a
minimum a substantial shrinkage in these lines must be added to that
which has been estimated for the known industries. Estimates of the total
volume of unemployment rest upon very uncertain ground since errors in
gauging the probable number of those seeking employment and those
actually employed may result in a cumulative error in the unemployment
figure. Careful computations upon the basis of the incomplete available
data have shown a rising volume of unemployment since the unemploy-
ment census of 1930, probably reaching around five million by the summer
of 1931 and steadily increasing until July, 1932, a possible total of from
eight and one-half to ten million persons or more than 20 percent of the
gainfully occupied appear to have been involuntarily idle. These estimates
are carefully computed from the known data but the bases for computa-
tion are quite limited so that a registration of the unemployed might show
a sizeable error in these estimates. The figures exclude from consideration
those workers, in Class B of the 1930 census, who are nominally holding
jobs although laid off without pay.
Owing to the turnover among both employed and unemployed, the
probable minimum unemployment of from four to six hundred thousand
workers in manufacturing industry during the 1920's was actually
shared by a much larger but indeterminate number of workers in
both good and bad years. The trend of actual employment in the trade,
[314]
OCCUPATIONS
clerical, and service occupations cannot be accurately determined from
available statistics, but the evidence indicates that these groups enjoy a
definitely higher employment stability than workers in the manufacturing
and mechanical groups during both good and bad years.48 There are no
available figures to show trends in the amount of part time or under-
employment, but this is known to be an important element of insecurity,
especially in manufacturing industry.49
The Occupational Distribution of Unemployment. — From Table 13
we may learn how unemployment in 1930 was distributed among some of
the principal categories of gainfully occupied men and women. The
average unemployment among men in all lines of work was 7 percent
and among women 4.6 percent. Except in two of the selected groups
included in the table it will be seen that the rate for men exceeds that for
women.
The rate of unemployment for agriculture is almost negligible. Even
though earnings may sink to the vanishing point there is always plenty
of work in cultivating and harvesting. By definition the term unemploy-
ment is almost entirely inapplicable to agriculture except in the case of
farm laborers working directly for wages, for whom the appreciable rate
of 4.7 percent of unemployment was shown.
Coal mining, for which the census recorded the high rate of 22 percent
of unemployment, is unique in having a significant proportion of the
unemployed in Class B. The workers in this highly irregular industry
remain in the mining villages at the pit heads ready for summons under-
ground on a day's or an hour's notice. Thus there are thousands of coal
miners who regard themselves as having jobs and who are carried on the
active rolls of the coal companies, although they may be idle for months
at a time.
Unemployment is conspicuous in urban districts where factory and
construction workers are found in large numbers. Nearly half the un-
employed male workers in 1930 were found in the manufacturing and
mechanical occupations. Within this group the heaviest rates of un-
employment appear among building trades, the rate for building laborers
representing nearly a quarter of those gainfully employed. The high degree
of seasonality in construction work means that the building tradesman
must ordinarily expect a number of weeks or months of idleness each year.
The added hazard of depressional unemployment is especially difficult to
cope with in the building industry. For unskilled and semi-skilled factory
workers, high rates of unemployment are shown, and the highest per-
centages of unemployment for women are found in these industries. A
48 See figures showing the probable minimum amount of unemployment as estimated
by one of the present authors in Recent Economic Changes, New York, 1929, vol. II, pp.
466-478.
49 See Chap. XVI.
[ 315 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 13. — PERCENTAGE OF MALE AND OF FEMALE GAINFUL WORKERS UNEMPLOYED
SPECIFIED OCCUPATION GROUPS AT THE DATE OF THE 1930 CENSUS
IN
Occupation group
Males
Females
Number
of gainful
workers
Percent unemployed
at date of census
Number
of gainful
workers
Percent unemployed
at date of census
Class
A
Class
B
Total
Class
A
Class
B
Total
Agriculture (excluding unpaid family
workers)
8,377,275
2,561,649
250,140
983,564
621,545
12,224,345
2,451,259
2,668,086
419,675
3,561,943
306,980
477,390
101,201
102,484
5,118,787
238,844
2,038,494
1,290,447
36,050
1 772,200
194,297
169,877
161,315
838,622
1,727,650
1.3
3.8
7.3
8.3
8.0
10.3
10.5
13.3
20.3
5.6
10.0
6.8
1.8
3.6
3.
5.
4.
4.
6.
4.8
10.0
5.6
7.3
2.8
2.5
.3
.9
3.1
9.5
13.5
3.0
4.1
3.1
3.8
2.0
3.4
2.1
1.4
2.6
.5
.6
.6
.7
.8
.7
1.2
.6
.9
.7
.6
1.6
4.7
10.4
17.8
21.5
13.3
14.6
16.4
24.1
7.6
13.4
8.9
3.2
6.2
3.6
6.0
4.7
4.8
7.2
5.5
11.2
6.2
8.2
3.5
3.1
434,931
171,323
1.3
3.2
1.3
3.2
2.6
6.4
Farm laborers (wage workers)
Forestry and fishing
Mining . .
1,886,307
1,458,799
125,392
281,204
5.7
6.1
7.3
2.0
4.0
4.6
3.3
.4
9.7
10.7
10.6
2.4
Coal mine operatives
Manufacturing and mechanical indus-
tries
Operatives, manufacturing, semi-
skilled
Laborers, manufacturing
Building laborers
Transportation and communication ....
962,680
163,147
1,986,830
706,553
775,140
3,180,251
371,095
1,263,864
231,973
1,526,234
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
6.1
1.8
.9
.8
.4
.4
.4
.7
.7
.7
.9
.6
4.4
4.2
3.8
3.0
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.8
7.0
2.4
Switchmen, flagmen and yardmen.
Trade
Clerks in stores
Clerical service
Clerks (except store clerks)
Stenographers and typists
Domestic and personal service
Cooks
Servants (except cooks)
Waiters
Public service (not elsewhere classified) .
All occupations
38,077,804
5.4
1.6
7.0
10,752,116
3.4
1.2
4.6
careful analysis of the incidence of unemployment within this group must
be sought in other investigations which analyze the relative monthly and
yearly fluctuations within individual manufacturing industries.
As compared with the mining and manufacturing industries the rates
of unemployment for the distributive and service occupations will be seen
[ 316 1
OCCUPATIONS
to be relatively low, especially in those groups in which considerable skill
or training is required. A substantial proportion of these groups are
salaried workers who customarily receive notice farther in advance of
layoff than is usual among industrial wage earners. Slack times bring
curtailment of manufacturing schedules while distributors are still
requiring the services of their employees in the effort to move stocks.
Despite the greater security of the white collar groups during the earlier
stages of general work shortage, eventually unemployment is felt through-
out their ranks if depression is prolonged.
In forestry and fishing the relatively high rate of unemployment is
explained in part by the dependence of the lumber industry upon casual
laborers — migrant workers who shift with the seasons from the western
lumber camps to the docks and thence to the harvest fields, spending a
fairly large proportion of each year in transition between these irregular
employments.
An unemployment rate of 5.5 percent for workers in domestic and
personal service conceals a much higher rate for cooks, domestic servants
and waiters within the ranks of the larger group. Curtailed income and
more careful budgeting in the middle classes is quickly reflected in the
lay off of domestic workers in large numbers and in decreased dependence
upon outside establishments for the performance of services which can
be done by the family at home.
Among professional workers the unemployment rate is somewhat
misleading, since a large proportion of these persons are self-employed.
The involuntarily workless among them are principally those normally
employed by businesses and institutions whose staffs are reduced in
number as income falls off.
Occupational Insecurities within Employment. — It must be remember-
ed that comparison of unemployment rates for occupations does not show
comparative occupational security, but only comparative likelihood of
obtaining some work of whatever kind. In the census returns a man may
be recorded as employed whether or not he has been able to find work in
his customary line. Thus there is much insecurity of occupation which is
not reflected in the unemployment rates. As general unemployment rises,
there is occupational displacement from the more to the less skilled types
of work. A recent study50 has shown that among professional workers only
half as many were unemployed as had been displaced from professional
occupations and among skilled workers only three-fourths as many were
unemployed as had been displaced, while among the ousted unskilled
workers only a very few found work in higher grades and more than half
60 A sample survey of unemployment in New Haven conducted by the Russell Sage
Foundation. See Hogg, Margaret H., The Incidence of Work Shortage, Russell Sage
Foundation, New York, 1932.
r 317 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of their unemployment was caused by entrance of workers from other
occupational levels.
Unemployment Seeks the Marginal Worker. — During periods of
severe recession all industries discriminate against the marginal workers.
The identity of the marginal worker varies from plant to plant, from shop
to shop, from office to office and from one gainful pursuit to another,
depending upon the experience, the reasoned attitude or the whim of the
employer. In some cases the older worker is the first to be laid off, in
others it is the unskilled, the Negro, or the foreign born; in still others the
force of skilled or semi-skilled workers may be diluted by cheaper or
quasi-subsidized female labor.
TABLE 14. — PERCENTAGE OF GAINFUL WORKERS UNEMPLOYED AT THE DATE OF THE
1930 CENSUS, BY SEX AND AGE
Age
Number of
gainful
workers
Percent unemployed at date of census
Class A
Class B
Total
Males:
10 to 14 years
273,099
2,751,905
4,799,501
4,714,267
4,454,403
4,571,647
4,036,561
3 569,106
2,996,041
2,256,769
1,684,743
1,072,899
865,849
31,057
0.6
7.0
6.9
5.2
4.6
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.8
5.8
4.3
0.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.
I.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.5
1.5
1.2
0.9
8.8
8.8
6.9
6.2
6.2
6.5
7.0
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.5
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years. . ....
70 years and over
Unknown
Total
38,077,804
5.4
1.6
7.0
Females:
10 to 14 years
119,889
1,543,279
2,347,548
1,541,411
1,112,927
1,047,601
844,737
706,976
559,050
383,293
265,785
154,142
112,076
13,402
0.8
4.9
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.8
1.9
0.6
.7
.2
.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
1.0
0.9
0.6
1.4
6.6
.7
.4
.4
.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
3.9
3.7
2.5
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
SO to 34 years . . .
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
65 to 59 years
60 to 64 years . . ...
65 to 69 years
70 years and over
Total . .
10,752,116
3.4
1.2
4.6
[ 318 ]
OCCUPATIONS
The preference of employers for workers in the prime of life is brought
out by the data given in Table 14 which show that unemployment of
male workers is lowest between the ages of 30 and 40. In every other
five-year age group the rate of unemployment is higher except for workers
over 70 and child workers between 10 and 14, at which ages many of
those lacking work may not have been identified as gainful workers.
Female employment shows increasing stability from 20 up to 60 years of
age.
Table 15 sheds light on the relative security of the native and the
foreign born. Since relatively few immigrant workers are engaged in
farming in which the unemployment rate is negligible, comparison by
nativity is more informing if agricultural occupations are omitted.
TABLE 15. — PERCENTAGE OF MALE GAINFUL WORKERS UNEMPLOYED AT DATE OF THE
1930 CENSUS, BY COLOR AND NATIVITY
Color nativity group
Number of
gainful
workers
Percent unemployed at date of census
Class A
Class B
Total
All occupations:
Native white . .
27,511,862
6,255,071
3,662,896
647,975
4.9
7.6
5.1
6.4
1.5
2.4
1.3
1.8
6.4
10.0
6.4
8.2
Foreign born white
• Negro
Other races
Total . . .
38,077,804
20,360,571
5,607,822
2,170,341
377,011
5.4
6.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
1.6
2.0
2.6
2.0
1.9
7.0
8.3
10.8
10.2
10.0
All occupations except agriculture:
Native white
Foreign-born white
Other races
Total
28,515,745
6.9
2.1
9.0
Figures of the federal census of unemployment and of recent local
surveys in Buffalo, New Haven, Philadelphia and Syracuse indicate that
foreign born workers suffer more severely from work shortage than do
the native whites.51 Analysis of the New Haven survey shows that in one
city at least none of the employment handicap of the foreign born can be
51 See New York (State) Department of Labor, Unemployment in Buffalo, November,
1929 and November, 1930, Special Bulletins no. 163 and 167, 1930; U. S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics, J. Frederic Dewhurst and Ernest A. Tupper, Social and Economic Character of
Unemployment in Philadelphia April, 1929, Bulletin no. 520, June, 1930; J. Frederic Dew-
hurst and Robert R. Nathan, Social and Economic Character of Unemployment in Phila-
delphia April, 1930, Bulletin no. 555, March, 1932; New York (State) Department of Labor,
Unemployment in Syracuse November, 1931, Bulletin no. 173, 1932; for New Haven, see
Hogg, op. cit.
[319 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
traced to their ages, for the higher unemployment rate coincides with an
age distribution more favorable for employment.
The consistently lower unemployment for women earners than for
men may be explained in part by the tendency of women to cease to call
themselves gainful workers when work becomes unobtainable provided
their earnings are not absolutely essential for sustenance. Another possible
factor is the contrast between the wage levels of the two sexes. The lower
unemployment rate for women persists throughout all the age levels.
Duration of Unemployment. — Other figures furnished by the census
of 1930 show the duration of idleness of those found unemployed. These
figures shed additional light on the comparative insecurity of different
PER CENT
0
FEMALES
V* ?? . £.6 ft^rfe \\O YViXx
FIG. 19. — Length of unemployment, by age, among male and female workers (1930
census — Class A unemployment only).
groups of workers. Figure 19 reinforces the earlier conclusion that the
burden of unemployment falls heavily on male workers of the higher ages.
While for total unemployment men under 25 have the highest rate, this is
seen to be mostly unemployment of short duration, long period unemploy-
ment being much rarer among them than among the older workers. For
women workers little variation with age occurs in long term unemploy-
ment. The steady increase of long term idleness with advancing age
which is evident for men in Figure 19 is borne out by the results of the
local surveys already mentioned.
The Older Worker. — For older workers no discussion of unemploy-
ment rates can be complete without reference to enforced retirement.
Restrictions on the hiring ages, with consequent barriers against older
persons, have been in vogue in many lines of employment since the begin-
nings of the factory system at least. To what extent has such discrimi-
[ 320 ]
OCCUPATIONS
nation grown, thus increasing the insecurity of workers of advanced age ?
Direct evidence on this pregnant question is scanty52 but Figure 3 shows
no symptom of withdrawal of men from gainful work before the age of 50
even in 1930. From Figure 4 the proportion of gainful workers among
men of 45 to 54 is seen to be the same now as in 1890, while the proportion
even among men of 55 to 64 has not greatly diminished.
This does not suggest that in 1930 as compared with earlier decades
more men under 50 had been discouraged by adverse discrimination into
TABLE 16. — DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT AT THE DATE OF THE 1930 CENSUS, BY SEX
AND AGE°
Age
Percentage of gainful workers in each age and sex group
unemployed for specified length of time
Total*
5 weeks or
over
14 weeks or
over
27 weeks or
over
Males:
15 to 19 years 6.9
20 to 24 years 6.8
25 to 29 years 5.1
30 to 34 years 4.5
35 to 39 years 4.5
40 to 44 years 4.8
45 to 49 years 5.2
50 to 54 years 5.3
55 to 59 years 5 .
60 to 64 years 5.7
65 to 69 years 5.7
70 years and over 4.2
Total 5.3
Females:
15 to 19 years 4.9
20 to 24 years 3.4
25 to 29 years 3.2
30 to 34 years 3.1
35 to 39 years 3.1
40 to 44 years 3.0
45 to 49 years 3.0
50 to 54 years 3.0
55 to 59 years 3.0
60 to 64 years 2.8
65 to 69 years 2.7
70 years and over 1.1
Total.. 3.4
4.7
4.7
3.5
3.2
8.3
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.6
3.3
2.5
2.6
1.9
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.3
0.7
.8
.6
.5
.6
.7
.8
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.1
3.8
2.2
.8
3.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.2
2.2
1.1
0 Class A unemployment only.
6 Reporting duration of unemployment.
62 For detailed discussion of the age distribution of industrial employees including an
analysis of census data from 1870 to 1920 inclusive, see Latimer, Murray W., Relation of
Maximum Hiring Ages to the Age Distribution of Employees, American Management Associ-
ation Bulletin, Personnel Series no. 3, New York, 1930.
[ 321 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ceasing to call themselves gainful workers. Local surveys have shown
considerable prevalence of enforced retirement at the present time for
men of 50 years and over. It is possible that the slightness of the increase
between 1890 and 1930 in the proportion not gainfully occupied for men
of ages 55 to 64 is due to a decline in the amount of voluntary retirement,
while enforced retirement may have suffered a greater increase. We have
already seen that the persisting importance of the older worker in an age
of increasing productivity is in large part due to the changing age distribu-
tion of the population. Despite discriminations a relatively larger number
of older persons in the population naturally maintains the importance of
the older worker among the gainfully employed.
The Impact of Unemployment on the Family. — What effect does
decreased work security have upon the family as a social and economic
unit ? What proportion of families are affected by different rates of unem-
ployment, and how severely do the affected families suffer ? The family is
the first barrier against the disaster of unemployment.53 There are usually
some wage earners left even though one or more may lose his job. Family
amalgamations which have never existed before take place during un-
employment. Unemployed children find home a haven until times im-
prove. Several families sometimes combine in a super-family in order to
reduce food bills, rentals and other items of operating and overhead
costs.84
Special local surveys have shown lower rates of unemployment for
gainful workers with family responsibilities, whether by considering
marital status alone, by separating heads of families, or by other methods
of allotting responsibility. Workers with family responsibility have differ-
ent age distribution from workers without it, which of itself tends to
produce difference in their unemployment rates. But in the New Haven
survey, analysis eliminating the age factor has indicated that in the group
studied formerly married men probably were one and a fourth times as
likely to be out of work as married men of the same age, while single men
were nearly half again as likely to be unemployed as the married.
One may question whether the smaller proportion of unemployment
among the workers with family responsibility reflects greater job tenacity
chiefly, or whether it reflects preference exercised by employers in view
of a desire on the part of the community to maintain the employment
status of those with dependents. It seems evident enough, however, that
the least secure and least stable among those available for work are the
unattached males.
63 See discussion of protective functions of family in Chap. XIII.
64 See Clague, Ewan, Unemployment and the Family, an unpublished paper summarized
in an article by M. B. Givens, "Statistical Measures of Social Aspects of Unemployment,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, September, 1931, vol. XXVI, New Series,
no. 175, pp. 303-318.
[ 322 ]
OCCUPATIONS
In spite of the fact that unmarried men have the highest index of
unemployment, analysis shows that the idleness of an earner almost
always affects intimately at least one other person. Hence the impact of
unemployment upon the family is a matter of great social importance. In
the New Haven and Philadelphia surveys it was found that the proportion
of families affected by shortage of work was greater than the proportion
of earners individually affected, while the New Haven survey further
showed that the relative number of the community's children under 14
years of age in the affected families was greater yet. Part of the experi-
mental analysis of unemployment in relation to family composition made
in the New Haven survey is shown in Table 17. Of all the earners sur-
TABLE 17. — PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN RELATION TO FAMILY
COMPOSITION IN NEW HAVEN, MAY- JUNE, 1931
Employment status of family
All
families
Families
consisting
of two or
more
persons
Families
with child-
ren under
14 years
All persons
All gainful
workers
All earners in family idle
7 0
7 0
7 0
6 5
6 0
Some earners idle, some at work. .
13 5
16.0
14 0
20.0
26 0
All earners at work, some on reduced time.
All earners at work
No earners in family
17.0
56.5
5.0
19.5
54.5
3.0
22.0
55.0
2.0
20.5
50.0
2.5
20.0
48.0
Situation unknown
1.0
0.5
Total
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
100 0
veyed, more than half were in families affected to some extent by idleness
or insufficient work. In most of these families, however, some active
breadwinners still remained; hence the total loss of income is distinctly
less prevalent among families than is idleness among individuals, although
the number of families affected to some extent by unemployment exceeds
the number of individuals unemployed. While it is difficult if not impos-
sible to gauge the severity of the impact of unemployment on the family,
it is evident that the effects range all the way from slight inconvenience
to extreme privation. Apparently nearly half of the New Haven popula-
tion in the early summer of 1931 were in families which were directly
affected either by complete idleness or by reduced work on the part
of some or all of their earners.
What can analysis of unemployment in families suggest concerning
probable future trends? The available evidence supports the natural
supposition that the larger the number of earners in the family, the
smaller is the likelihood that all of them should be unemployed at the
same time. In consequence of this, any tendency toward earlier disinte-
f 323 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
gration of the family must increase its economic insecurity, while any
tendency toward longer cohesion would diminish the hazard. Thus,
according as the trends may be for the family to remain together longer
or to separate earlier, there will be moderation or enhancement of that
menace to the community which is caused by the increased insecurity
of the individual worker, in lieu of organized protection against unem-
ployment through cooperative action by industry or by the state.
[ 324 ]
CHAPTER VTI
EDUCATION
BY CHARLES H. JTJDD
SINCE 1875 the educational system of this country has undergone
a transformation. Better equipped elementary schools have been
erected; free secondary schools have been established in large
numbers; public normal schools for the training of teachers have been
organized by the states; and the opportunities for college education have
been enlarged and made accessible to young people from all classes of
society. Furthermore, schools have assumed responsibility for many
phases of child care and training which formerly were thought of as
belonging wholly to the home. Schools are doing much to promote the
intelligent care of health. They are training youth in the proper use of
leisure. They are adopting special devices to equip everyone whom they
can reach for success in vocations and participation in community
activities.
These changes in the popular view of the scope of education and in
the institutional agencies devoted to education parallel changes in the
general social order. The elementary education provided in the public
schools of 1875 was fairly adequate for a nation which was engaged
chiefly in pioneering and in agriculture. With the rapid development of
a machine civilization, the increase in national wealth, the concentration
of population in urban centers, the appearance of many new occupations,
especially those open to women, and with the changes in domestic econ-
omy which have resulted from all these developments, an educational
system limited in its instruction to rudimentary subjects — the three R's
— has come to be recognized as wholly inadequate.
While present day education is very different from the education of
the colonial period and of the first hundred years of the national period,
the influence of pioneering conditions can be clearly traced in the form
of organization of the educational system of the United States. This
nation is unique in the fact that it has long had an educational system
which provides a single line of progress from the primary school to the
university. The countries of Europe, where society before the World
War was characterized by sharp class distinctions, have had until very
recently rigidly divided dual school systems, one branch of which led
into the universty and was the exclusive privilege of the upper classes,
the other branch of which offered only limited opportunities, did not
[ 325 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
lead into the university and provided the only education open to the
children of the common people. Although the first schools on the American
continent imitated the European model, the frontier view of the relation
of the individual to society soon led to the development of a new type of
educational system. Frontier communities organized a unit type of
school. Whatever educational opportunities they could provide were
made available to all classes of children. When public institutions of
secondary and higher education became possible because of increased
population and wealth, they followed the democratic pattern of the
lower school.
Since the World War steps have been taken in most European coun-
tries to break down the traditional dual school systems. Sweden has
adopted a reformed educational plan of the unit type. England has pro-
vided more "free" places in the secondary school than were ever provided
before. Germany has organized new types of secondary schools and has
opened them to bright pupils from all classes. She has also created a
common primary school four years in length in which all children are
educated. France has made the first two years of the secondary school,
the lycee, free and in time probably will do the same for the later years.
Furthermore, the programs of studies in all schools below the lycee have
been made uniform in content. This readjustment guarantees the same
kind of elementary education to the children of all classes of French
society. These and other similar recent developments in Europe show
how fortunate the United States is in the fact that its school system was
very early turned in the direction of a unit organization.
The influence of the frontier on the organization of American schools
is further reflected in the fact that these schools have long been and are
today largely controlled by local authorities. Most of the countries of
Europe have central ministries of education endowed with large powers
of control over schools and universities. In the United States the federal
government exercises no direct control over schools. Even the states,
which are politically responsible for the schools within their boundaries
and have full legislative control, leave the administration of education
largely to representatives of local communities and to private enterprise.
As a result, the schools of the United States are very responsive to the
will of the people. Both through experiments undertaken by communities
which are interested in improving public schools and through the efforts
of many intelligent groups which have organized private experimental
schools, notable enlargements of the educational program and far reaching
improvements in the content and methods of teaching have been effected.
The examples of aggressive centers have, in the course of time, advanced
the cause of education far more than could the influence of a single
dominant central authority.
[ 326 1
EDUCATION
The freedom resulting from local control and private initiative has
led to wide variations in administrative practices in American schools.
It is therefore difficult to make general statements which apply equally
to the educational institutions of all parts of the country. Evidence
presented in subsequent sections of this chapter, however, shows certain
general tendencies, which may be enumerated as follows: The curricula
of educational institutions of all types are being expanded and are being
increasingly adapted to the diverse needs of all classes of learners. More
attention is being given than ever before to the training of teachers.
Methods of teaching are being cultivated which are far in advance of the
sterile, formal methods common in earlier times. The material equipment
of schools and colleges is being steadily improved. Administration is
more and more being committed to experts. Above all, there is a very
general effort to arrive by scientific methods at clear, objective accounts
of the results of educational operations. Tests and measures and analytical
studies are producing a science of education which promises to be one of
the major contributions of America to the social sciences.
Many of the changes which have occurred in the American educational
system are directly related to changes in the industrial system of this
country. Industry has in recent years steadily reduced the percentage of
children employed.1 In 1870 the number of children from ten to fifteen
years of age engaged in gainful occupations was 13.2 percent of the total
number of children of these ages in the United States. The corresponding
percentages for later periods are as follows: 1880, 16.8; 1890, 18.1; 1900,
18.2; 1910, 18.4; 1900, 8.5; 1930, 4.7. If figures were available for children
from sixteen to eighteen years of age, the recent withdrawal of minors
from the industries would be even more evident. The figures cited show
that during the rapid development of machine industry, from 1880 to
1910, children were employed in large numbers in the factories of this
country. Since 1910 the trend of employment of children has been dis-
tinctly downward. Both humanitarian and practical considerations have
contributed to this trend. On the one hand it is recognized that the proper
development of children is jeopardized by intensive labor in early life.
On the other hand industry has been influenced by the practical fact that
the ratio of adults to children in the population of the United States has
steadily increased and that consequently the employment of children has
been rendered less necessary and less desirable than it was in former times.
In order to compensate for the tendency to close industry to children
society must provide new means of protecting them and of profitably
occupying their time. The schools of the present, even when thought of
merely as housing facilities, are in an important sense substitutes for the
employing agencies of earlier times.
1 For further discussion of child labor, see Chap. XXV.
[327]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The improved economic status of American families has facilitated the
substitution of schooling for employment of children. Children are the
chief beneficiaries of this improved economic condition. They are given
advantages which their parents did not have. They enjoy more years of
exemption from the responsibilities of self-support than have ever been
granted to the children of the common people in any land or age.
A study of fourteen high schools selected so as to represent widely
separated sections of the United States gives clear evidence of the fact that
the young people of this generation enjoy educational opportunities
superior to those enjoyed by the generation to which their parents belong.
The pupils in these schools were asked to report the number of years their
parents attended school. The results of the inquiry are presented in Table
1. This table indicates that approximately half the parents of high school
pupils have had no more than elementary school education. Ten percent
of them have had less than six years of schooling.
TABLE 1. — EXTENT OF EDUCATION OF THE FATHERS AND MOTHERS OF 8,891 PUPILS
ENROLLED IN FOURTEEN HIGH SCHOOLS IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES*
Number of years of education
Fathers6
Mothers'
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
0
60
54
71
154
307
315
571
550
2,653
455
645
366
2,328
362
0.7
.6
.8
1.7
3.5
3.5
6.4
6.2
29.8
5.1
7.3
4.1
26.2
4.1
66
50
68
105
238
289
553
512
2,495
499
755
498
2,468
295
0.7
.6
.8
1.2
2.7
3.2
6.2
5.8
28.1
5.6
8.5
5.6
27.7
3.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
g
9
10
11
12
Total
8,891
100.0
8,891
100.0
a Data secured by means of a questionnaire study made for this report in 1930-1931.
6 Thirty-four of the 366 fathers reported as having had eleven years of education and 1,294 of the 2,328
fathers reported as having had twelve years of education received further education in colleges in the United
States or corresponding institutions in foreign countries.
'Twenty-one of the 498 mothers reported as having had eleven years of education and 1,009 of the 2,468
mothers reported as having had twelve years of education received further education in colleges in the United
States or corresponding institutions in foreign countries.
A unique characteristic of the American social system which has been
of importance in determining the development of American education
is the freedom of individual choice of occupations. In this country a boy
or girl is free, as no child of older civilizations ever has been, to follow his
[ 328 ]
EDUCATION
or her personal bent in the choice of an occupation. There are no social
barriers to prevent any individual from entering any vocation. The
educational system is, accordingly, at liberty to arrange the education
of its wards in keeping with their individual abilities and degrees of
perseverance.
While the presentation of detailed facts regarding the development of
American schools must be postponed to subsequent pages, certain general
statistics may properly be introduced at this point in order to show the
extent to which education has become a major public interest in the
United States. In 1900 there were 284,683 students in American universi-
ties, colleges and teacher training institutions. In 1930, although the
population of the country had increased only 62 percent, the attendance
on institutions of higher education had increased to 1,178,318, that is, by
314 percent. In 1900 there were 630,048 pupils in secondary schools. The
number of such pupils in 1930 was 4*740,580. In 1930 one of every seven
persons of college age was in college and one of every two persons of
secondary school age was in secondary school. Never before in the history
of the world has there been such a development at the upper levels of an
educational system.
The great expansion of secondary schools and institutions of higher
education has increased the total school population until it has reached
an unprecedented number. The total enrollment in American schools
and institutions of higher education is approximately 29,500,000. More
than 1,000,000 teachers give instruction in these institutions. In other
words, approximately a quarter of the population of the United States
is directly engaged in educational activities.
Other facts will be recorded in subsequent sections of this chapter
showing that schools and institutions of higher education are prominent
factors in the American social order. Public schools require for their
support a substantial part of the revenues collected in states and munic-
ipalities through taxation. Institutions of higher education have attracted
private philanthropy on a vast scale. The enthusiasm for education in the
United States has led foreign observers to declare that it is the one
interest which commands the unqualified support of the American people.
I. CURRICULA AND ORGANIZATION2
Nothing is more characteristic of an educational institution than the
subjects in which it gives instruction. The first topic to be treated in detail
will therefore be the curriculum. Since the curriculum of the secondary
schools of the United States has changed radically in recent years, this will
be analyzed first.
2 For more detailed treatment, see the monograph in this series entitled Problems of
Education in the United States.
[ 329 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The Curriculum of the Secondary School. — In 1890 when the United
States Bureau of Education, now known as the United States Office of
Education, first began to collect statistics with regard to secondary
schools the courses offered in the public schools of this grade were classified
under nine headings, namely, Latin, French, German, Greek, algebra,
geometry, physics, chemistry and history. Table 2 shows the number of
headings used in certain subsequent years for which data are available.
TABLE 2. — SUBJECTS OF INSTRUCTION OFFERED IN PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 1890-1928°
Year
Number of subjects
Year
Number of subjects
1890
9
1922
43
1900
18
1928
47
1910
23
» U. S. Office of Education, Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 1057-58.
The facts are even more impressive than the figures in this table indicate
because the headings used in 1890, such as Latin and algebra, refer to
single subjects, while some of those used later cover a variety of subjects;
manual training, for example, includes a number of manual arts — wood-
work, machine shop, printing, etc.
Table 3 is a general table which shows the percentages of pupils in
public secondary schools who were enrolled in certain subjects in various
years. All subjects are included in which the registrations reached at
least 5 percent in any of the years reported. In addition, Greek and English
history are included, although the registrations in these subjects were less
than 5 percent, so as to facilitate a study of the trends in the subjects
taught in 1890.
If one examines the statistics of registration in the subjects taught in
1890, one finds that, with the single exception of French, the traditional
subjects have receded in relative importance in competition with the
new subjects. The relative decline in the classics and mathematics,
especially since the World War, is marked. There have been notable
increases in practical and vocational subjects as well as in drawing and
art. There has also been an increase in the number of sciences, both
natural and social.
The facts reported in Table 3 show in concrete detail the truth of the
statement that a change has been taking place in the view held by the
American people regarding the scope of education. In 1890 and the years
immediately following, secondary education was looked upon as the
privilege of pupils who were preparing to enter the professions. In 1928
secondary education was much more generally thought of as a preparation
for the manifold activities of ordinary life.
[ 330 1
EDUCATION
TABLE 3. — PERCENTAGE OF PUPILS IN PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLED IN CERTAIN
SUBJECTS OF INSTRUCTION, 1890-1928°
Subject
1890
1900
1910*
1922
1928
Latin 34.7
French 5.
German 10.5
Spanish
Greek 3.1
Algebra 45.4
Geometry 21 . 3
Physics 22.2
Chemistry 10. 1
Physical geography
Zoology
Botany
Biology
Physiology
Hygiene and sanitation
General science
Rhetoric
English literature
American history
English history .
Ancient history
Medieval and modern history
World history
Civil government
Community civics
Economics
Agriculture
Home economics
Manual training
Drawing and art
Music
Arithmetic
Bookkeeping
Shorthand
Typewriting
Commercial arithmetic. . .
50.6
7.8
14.3
2.9
56.3
27.4
19.0
7.7
23.4
27.4
38.5
42.1
38.2
21.7
49.1
9.9
23.7
.7
.8
56.9
30.9
14.6
6.9
19.3
8.0
16.8
15.3
ill
27.5
15.5
.7
11.3
.1
40.2
22.7
8.9
7.4
4.3
1.5
3.8
8.8
5.1
6.1
18.3
78.6
55.0
15.6
4.7
3.8
19.3
4.8
5.1
14.3
10. «
14.8
25.3
10.5
12.6
8.9
13.1
1.5
22.0
14.0
1.8
9.4
.1
35.2
19.8
6.9
7.1
2.7
.8
1.6
13.6
2.7
7.8
17.5
93.1
17.9
.9
10.4
11.8
6.1
6.7
13.4
5.1
3.7
16.5
12.5
18.6
26.0
2.4
10.7
8.7
15.2
7.0
a Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 1057-58.
6 Beginning with 1910, the percentages of pupils in each subject are based on the number of pupils in the
schools reporting by subject. The percentages for earlier years are based on the total number of pupils in the
schools reporting.
Expansion of the curriculum of secondary schools is not peculiar to the
United States, although one motive for expansion, the diversity of
interests of pupils, is stronger in this country than elsewhere because
the percentage of adolescents attending secondary schools is very much
larger than is the corresponding percentage in any other country. Germany
has in recent years greatly increased the number and variety of her
secondary schools. The new schools offer a wide range of scientific and
practical courses not included in the traditional curriculum of the older
schools. An English commission recently recommended a series of
extensions of secondary education in order to provide for a part of the
[ 331 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
adolescent population which heretofore has not enjoyed the privileges of
education above the elementary level. Similar extensions of secondary
education appear in other countries. It is clear that American secondary
schools have followed a course now common to all democratic educational
systems in attempting to provide through an expanded curriculum wider
opportunities for the youth of the country.
The readjustments in the curricula of American secondary schools
have not been made uniformly in the various states. If one lists, as is done
in Tables 4 and 5, the five states which in 1928 had the highest percentages
of enrollment in the traditional subjects of Latin and algebra and the five
states which had the lowest percentages of enrollment in these subjects
and contrasts these with the states which had the highest and the lowest
percentages of enrollment in art and manual training, one finds striking
evidence of regional variations in educational policies. These variations
confirm what was said earlier regarding the dominance of local influence
in the American educational system. Tables 4 and 5 indicate that the
southeastern states are more conservative than are the northern and
western states in adopting a curriculum suited to the varying needs of
young people of different social groups.
TABLE 4. — THE FIVE STATES HAVING IN 1928 THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS
IN PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLED IN LATIN, ALGEBRA, ART AND MANUAL
TRAINING0
Subject and state
Percentage
of pupils
enrolled
Subject and state
Percentage
of pupils
enrolled
Latin:
34 8
Art:
Maryland
38.2
34 0
New York
38.0
Nebraska
32 9
Rhode Island
32.5
32 9
Pennsylvania
29.6
32.6
Massachusetts
29.5
Algebra:
South Carolina
North Carolina
59.8
58 1
Manual training:
New Hampshire
Maryland
31.4
25.8
55 4
California
21.7
Tennessee
55 0
Utah
21.1
Texas
52 7
Indiana
17.4
« Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 1058-61.
A striking example of the kind of influence which has operated to
produce expansions in the secondary school curriculum is to be seen in
the fact that in 1917 the Congress of the United States was persuaded
to make appropriations designed to stimulate the teaching of vocational
courses of various types in secondary schools. The plea which was effective
in securing this action by Congress was that there are many young people
EDUCATION
for whose training no adequate provision is made in the traditional
curriculum.
TABLE 5. — THE FIVE STATES HAVING IN 1928 THE LOWEST PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS IN
PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOLS ENROLLED IN LATIN, ALGEBRA, ART AND MANUAL
TRAINING*
Subject and state
Percentage
of pupils
enrolled
Subject and state
Percentage
of pupils
enrolled
Latin:
Utah
4 5
Art:
0 9
New Mexico
9 0
1 2
Nevada
9 5
Idaho ..
2 7
California
10 7
3 0
Arizona
10 9
3 0
Algebra:
Minnesota
24 0
Manual training:
2 0
California
25 1
North Carolina
2 5
Utah
25 4
2 6
Massachusetts
26 2
Vermont
4 1
West Virginia
26 9
North Dakota
4 2
o Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 1058-61.
Table 6 shows an important result of the adoption of the new and
broad view of public education. Up to 1920 the steadily increasing demand
for commercial training on the part of those who were preparing to enter
business positions was so little satisfied by the curricula of public educa-
tional institutions that it had to be met by private schools.3 As a conse-
quence of the extension of the curriculum of public secondary schools,
which is shown in Table 3, private business schools have markedly
decreased in number and in enrollment since 1920.
TABLE 6. — PRIVATE COMMERCIAL AND BUSINESS SCHOOLS AND STUDENTS ENROLLED,
1900-1929°
Year
Number of
schools
Number of
students
Year
Number of
schools
Number of
students
1900
373
91 549
1920
902
336 032
1905 .. ...
525
146 086
1925
739
188 363
1910 ...
541
134,778
1929
651
179 756
1915
843
183,286
0 U. S. Office of Education, Statistics of Private Commercial and Business Schools, 1928-1929, Bulletin no. 25,
1930, p. 3.
The Curriculum of the Elementary School. — The curriculum of the
elementary school, at least in the lower grades, is for obvious reasons less
3 For data on girls in private and public business courses, see Chap. XIV.
[ 333 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
susceptible of change than is the curriculum of the secondary school.
There are certain rudimentary subjects, such as the three R's, which
constitute the necessary components of any system of elementary
education.
TABLE 7. — NUMBER OF FIFTY CITIES REPORTED IN 1905°, 1910&, AND 1915C AND NUMBER
OF FORTY-NINE CITIES REPORTED IN 1924d AS OFFERING VARIOUS SUBJECTS OF
INSTRUCTION IN CERTAIN GRADES
Subject
Grade and year
Grade II
Grade IV
Grade VI
Grade VIII
1905
1910
1915
1924
1905
1910
1915
1924
1905
1910
1915
1924
1905
1910
1915
1924
Opening exercises
Morals
9
3
43
41
9
3
50
43
42
10
49
50
50
50
50
5
50
50
43
50
49
50
50
50
42
47
47
46
46
48
9
3
48
42
42
32
50
50
50
50
50
25
50
50
43
50
48
50
50
50
40
47
47
46
47
48
9
3
4
34
40
41
48
44
4
46
8
24
22
30
23
43
40
18
6
6
1
50
43
50
35
48
50
19
3
50
18
32
26
40
38
43
50
50
35
13
28
43
50
43
47
50
50
50
34
44
43
49
49
44
31
35
33
34
35
36
36
12
22
16
19
32
7
36
36
36
27
19
50
43
41
50
50
47
1
46
46
50
49
49
49
50
15
47
45
45
44
48
15
10
IS
23
20
43
11
47
49
Spelling
Grammar
Language and composi-
tion
47
50
Arithmetic
Algebra
Geometry
21
3
43
30
34
24
44
42
10
6
History
11
4
9
17
50
24
30
38
46
50
50
20
13
35
49
44
42
49
49
26
29
11
46
24
26
44
10
48
49
22
31
7
43
22
36
23
49
41
11
11
2
39
50
25
35
41
46
50
50
28
37
2
42
50
43
43
49
50
37
41
13
47
21
27
43
9
48
49
39
Civics
Geography
Science or nature study . .
9
34
32
9
24
22
36
46
41
37
43
Hygiene
Physical training
Supervised play
22
Drawing
43
47
6
50
50
21
49
49
19
Music
Manual training
Sewing
Cooking
Industrial arts
18
French
German
5
6
7
1
7
2
1
2
1
5
37
22
Latin
Typewriting
Stenography
Bookkeeping
Recess . ... ....
40
22
42
28
41
24
41
31
40
23
40
30
Miscellaneous
0 Payne, Bruce Ryburn, Public Elementary School Curricula, New York, 1905, p. 21.
6 Elson, William H. and Bachman, Frank P., "Studies and Study- Values in Elementary Schools of Large
Cities," Elementary School Teacher, March, 1910, vol. X, no. 7, p. 311.
e Holmes, Henry W., "Time Distributions by Subjects and Grades in Representative Cities," The Fourteenth
Yearbook of the National Society for the Study of Education, 1915, Part I, Minimum Essentials in Elementary-
School Subjects — Standards and Current Practices, insert following p. 26.
d Ayer, Fred C., Studies in Administrative Research, Bulletin no. 1, Department of Research, Seattle
Public Schools, 1924, p. 15.
[ 334 ]
EDUCATION
Table 7 is compiled from four studies of the elementary curriculum —
the only comparable extensive studies available — published at intervals
from 1905 to 1924. Each of the first three studies deals with the curricula
of fifty cities; the fourth study deals with the curricula of forty-nine
cities. The lists of cities for the different studies are not identical though
they are very much alike and the use of such terms as "grammar,"
"language" and "civics" is by no means the same. Table 7 includes for
the sake of brevity data for the even numbered grades only.
The presence of accidental items resulting from local experimentation
is illustrated by the number of cities reported as giving instruction in such
subjects as morals, algebra, geometry, French, German, Latin, type-
writing and stenography. The ambiguity of the term "grammar" is
evidenced by the fact that the later studies do not use the term.
A number of generalizations may be drawn from Table 7. The eighth
grade has evidently been for some years a center of much experimenta-
tion. The curricula of the other grades have undergone, so far as the
titles of the subjects taught are concerned, relatively little reorganization
except in a few fields. In 1924 industrial arts were substituted for the
earlier courses designated as manual training, cooking and sewing.
Uncertainty as to the science which can be most successfully taught to
elementary school pupils has led to different practices in different periods.
The variations in science courses are seen when the numbers of cities
giving instruction in geography, nature study, physiology and hygiene
are considered together.
Table 7 does not indicate the full extent of the change which has taken
place in the elementary curriculum. The individual subjects, even though
they continue to be designated by traditional names, have often under-
gone great amplification. In 1898 President Eliot published the following
statement: "I procured two careful estimates of the time it would take
a graduate of a high school to read aloud consecutively all the books
which are read in this [elementary] school during six years, including
the history, the reading lessons in geography, and the book on manners.
The estimates were made by two persons reading aloud at a moderate
rate and reading everything that the children in most of the rooms of
that school have been supposed to read during their entire course of six
years. The time occupied in doing this reading was forty-six hours."4
Estimates of the time required to read the materials now commonly
studied in typical elementary schools show that pupils read eight or nine
times as much as was read in the school referred to by President Eliot.
Table 8 represents a much broader sampling of the elementary school
curriculum than does any other table which has been compiled. This
table shows the offerings in the year 1925-1926 in the various elementary
4 Eliot, Charles William, Educational Reform, New York, 1898, p. 185.
F 335 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
grades of more than five hundred school systems in all parts of the
country. These school systems were selected by their respective state
departments as typical. The table corroborates what was said in com-
menting on Table 7. There has been a marked enrichment of the instruc-
TABLE 8. — PERCENTAGE OF MORE THAN FIVE HUNDRED SCHOOL SYSTEMS OFFERING
VARIOUS SUBJECTS OF INSTRUCTION IN GRADES I-VIII, 1925-1926°
Subject
Grades
I
II
III
IV
v •
VI
VII
VIII
Agriculture
0.6
74.0
12.5
2.0
70.7
6.1
0.4
0.2
8.4
62.7
2.6
3.2
2.6
0.4
98.9
5.8
1.1
17.9
53.6
2.1
4.8
12.9
3.0
1.3
98.5
22.1
6.1
1.9
0.2
37.3
40.5
14.3
85.7
4.6
51.0
49.4
3.6
0.6
0.4
19.8
72.1
10.3
67.1
59.9
60.8
24.5
63.5
4.2
64.8
8.9
Art or drawing
71.3
23.9
74.2
19.3
76.6
12.1
74.9
11.3
Handwork
Mechanical drawing
Commercial subjects:
One
Two
Three
English
73.3
81.0
92.5
96.5
98.2
98.5
0.2
0.2
Foreign language:
One
Two
Three
Four
Geography
6.4
59.5
2.6
14.7
9.8
62.6
3.5
17.5
62.9
67.1
3.7
29.0
92.6
75.5
7.6
54.6
0.4
0.4
96.3
78.6
11.1
84.7
1.3
4.8
0.7
95.6
74.6
15.2
90.9
2.0
10.7
11.5
88.8
70.1
22.0
87.5
3.7
41.6
45.5
0.9
0.2
14.0
83.8
0.6
72.9
74.4
75.4
11.6
37.7
2.4
79.5
9.9
Health, hygiene, or physical training
Physiology
History
Current history
Home economics, domestic art, or domestic science
Manual-arts subjects:
One
Two
Three
Four
Mathematics
98.2
98.9
98.7
98.7
0.4
97.8
Arithmetic
87.5
Algebra
Music
76.6
89.1
99.3
16.0
16.4
78.1
94.1
99.4
19.3
17.3
77.0
95.0
99.3
20.0
19.1
76.9
92.8
98.7
14.2
18.6
75.3
93.7
98.0
12.2
19.6
75.4
91.1
96.1
10.9
24.1
91.9
8.5
Penmanship
Reading
Science or nature study
Social science . . .
Occupations
Spelling or phonetics
70.7
17.1
89.3
13.8
94.3
11.4
91.3
9.2
92.8
8.9
Miscellaneous
a Report of the Commission on Length of Elementary Education, Supplementary Educational Monographs,
no. 34, Department of Education, University of Chicago, 1927, p. 56. The percentages for each grade are calcu-
lated on the basis of the number of school systems reporting; 543 school systems reported for Grade I, 543 for
Grade II, 544 for Grade III, 542 for Grade IV, 542 for Grade V, 540 for Grade VI, 536 for Grade VII, and 526
for Grade VIII.
tional program in the upper grades. Such subjects as foreign language,
home economics, combination mathematics, algebra and social science
[ 336 ]
EDUCATION
are appearing as parts of the upper grade curriculum in a number of
school systems. The fact is that the upper grades are expanding in the
content of their instruction to such an extent that they are gradually
detaching themselves from the lower grades and are gravitating toward
the secondary school.
The Junior High School. — The trend toward enrichment of the ele-
mentary curriculum has gone so far that it has resulted in the rise of a
new administrative unit in the educational system, namely, the junior
high school. Up to twenty years ago — in some school systems up to a
later date — much of the energy of the seventh and eighth grades was
devoted to reviews of work covered in the lower grades. A study5 pub-
lished in 1919 dealing with the elementary school curricula of twenty-four
typical cities brings out clearly this fact. The trend is now away from
mere reviews and toward experimentation with new subjects and with
types of social, recreational and health training formerly not recognized
as parts of the school program.
The changes in the content and character of instruction in the upper
grades of the elementary school constitute nothing less than a revolution
in the educational system of this country. These changes were made possi-
ble by a number of improvements in elementary schools. There has been
an improvement in the teaching of the lower grades. A substantial increase
has been made in the length of the school year and in the average number
of days of attendance of individual pupils, as is shown in Table 9. It
became possible some years ago to accomplish enough in the lower grades
so that the upper grades could be reorganized. In 1909 there was estab-
lished in Berkeley, California, a new unit of the school system known as
the "intermediate school." This new unit, which included the seventh,
eighth and ninth grades, was characterized by a reconstructed program
of instruction. Similar readjustments were being made at about the
same time in such widely separated centers as Concord, New Hampshire,
Columbus, Ohio, and Grand Rapids, Michigan. The nature of these
TABLE 9. — AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS POBLIC SCHOOLS WERE IN SESSION AND AVERAGE
NUMBER OF DAYS ATTENDED BY THE PUPILS ENROLLED, 1890-1930°
Year
Days in session
Days attended
Year
Days in session
Days attended
1890
134 7
86 3
1920
161 9
121 2
1900
144 3
99 0
19306
172 7
140 (i
1910 .
157 5
113 0
a Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 453.
6 Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
5Hoefer. Carolyn, "Reviews in the Seventh and Eighth Grades," Elementary School
Journal, March. 1919, vol. XIX, pp. 545-53.
[ 337 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
changes is indicated by the fact that the name "junior high school" was
finally adopted for the new unit of the school system.
The junior high school is, as its name implies, an institution organized
with a view to bringing into grades below the high school certain materials
of instruction which formerly belonged in the high school curriculum.
The movement to organize junior high schools has spread rapidly in
recent years, as is shown in Table 10.
TABLE 10. — CITIES OF 10,000 POPULATION AND MORE REPORTING JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOLS,
JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOLS REPORTED, AND BOYS AND GIRLS ENROLLED, 1918-1930°
Number of
Number of
Enrollment
cities
schools
Total
Boys
Girls
1918
123
259
119,921
56,857
63,064
1920
158
326
179,671
85,890
93,781
1922
213
510
282,088
137,401
144,687
1924
289
696
499,964
247,801
252,163
1926
383
980
736,464
366,798
369,666
1928
425
1,182
949,014
472,184
476,830
1930
460
1,363
1,121,778
558,582
563,196
"Biennial Survey of Education, 1916-1918, vol. Ill, p. 209; 1918-1920, p. 110; 1920-1922, vol. II, p. 74;
1922-1924, p. 394; 1924-1926, pp. 619, 624; 1926-1928, p. 504; 1928-1930, vol. II, p. 18.
TABLE 11. — COURSES ANNOUNCED IN THE CATALOGUES OF TEN INDEPENDENT COLLEGES
AND THE LIBERAL ARTS COLLEGES OF TEN UNIVERSITIES, 1900-1930
College
1900
1910
1920
1930
Independent colleges:
Amberst College
44
99
98
130
Carleton College
142
200
297
295
Central College
70
77
122
275
Colorado College
127
169
322
420
Grinnell College
67
225
271
296
Howard College . . .
46
69
143
255
Knox College
86
103
154
229
Lafayette College
(a)
256
249
871
Oberlin College
195
257
279
369
Pomona College
101
185
323
267
Liberal arts colleges of universities:
543
814
877
1 114
253
355
508
674
Stanford University
373
417
710
1 095
State University of Iowa
213
399
577
823
University of Alabama
46
104
158
437
University of Chicago
960
1,439
1,661
1,897
University of Colorado
222
332
471
719
University of Virginia
75
115
205
315
University of Washington
134
363
561
980
University of Wisconsin
434
772
913
1,143
0 Courses not listed.
338
EDUCATION
The Curriculum of the College. — The curricula of the colleges of the
United States have expanded greatly in recent years, especially during
the past decade. Table 11 shows the number of different courses an-
nounced in various years in the catalogues of ten independent colleges
and the liberal arts colleges of ten universities located in different parts
of the United States.
A study of college curricula made by a somewhat different method
is reported in Table 12. This table shows the number of courses in various
subjects which appear in the records of typical members of the June
graduating classes of the colleges of the University of Chicago in the
years 1900, 1910, 1920 and 1930. A sample of one hundred names was
selected systematically from all parts of the alphabetical list of the
graduates of each of these years and the courses taken by these graduates
TABLE 12. — COURSES IN VARIOUS SUBJECTS IN THE RECORDS OF ONE HUNDRED TYPICAL
MEMBERS OF THE JUNE GRADUATING CLASSES OF THE COLLEGES OF THE UNIVERSITY
OF CHICAGO, 1900-1930
Subject
1900
1910
1920
1930
29
66
64
g
30
34
6
37
Art
3
38
31
106
Astronomy
10
42
27
21
Bacteriology
24
36
21
Botany
54
40
78
46
Chemistry
115
155
242
110
Commerce and administration
Divinity
63
88
1
41
142
86
Economics
107
159
303
217
Education
45
134
217
432
English
515
549
561
610
5
75
47
35
French
283
220
269
116
General survey . . .
33
Geography .
69
79
79
Geology .
110
48
57
69
German
306
330
180
65
Greek
195
109
19
12
History
392
364
271
327
Home economics
36
74
59
Latin
351
208
86
23
Law
51
44
91
253
188
142
131
Pathology
28
12
1
Philosophy . .
151
107
87
85
Physics
86
80
94
46
Physiology
54
83
45
31
°154
65
47
93
114
122
100
143 ,
98
92
121
136
20
12
77
48
Zoology ...
53
58
83
70
0 Includes law.
[ 339
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
were tabulated. Subjects which do not appear twenty-five times or more
in the records of at least one of the years are not included in Table 12.
The decline in the classics and mathematics is conspicuous. These
traditional subjects have given place to professional and practical
subjects, such as law and commerce.
The statistics cited give definite quantitative evidence that the
American college has become an institution for the training of students
whose aims in seeking higher education are very diverse. A college educa-
tion is no longer thought of as a rare opportunity open only to students of
distinctly intellectual tastes. Many young men who intend to enter
business are in college; many young women who have no vocational
expectations whatsoever are also in college. For a very large fraction of the
population a college education is regarded as a natural sequel to secondary
education. The colleges have responded to this new view of the meaning
of college education and are offering courses in practical subjects which
were not regarded as academic subjects in the nineteenth century.
The Junior College. — The great variety of student interests and
purposes which are served by American colleges has resulted in the
appearance of a number of different types of institutions of college rank.
The particular institution which is likely to produce the most important
readjustment in the whole educational system is the junior college. This
institution has resulted from the complete or partial separation of the
first two years of college from the later years. The growth of this movement
from 1917 to 1932 is shown in Table 13.
TABLE 13. — PUBLIC AND PRIVATE JUNIOR COLLEGES AND STUDENTS ENROLLED, 1917-1932
Year
Public junior colleges
Private junior colleges
Public and private
junior colleges
Number
Enrollment
Number
Enrollment
Number
Enrollment
1917°
39
70
136
171
181
8,439
20,145
39,095
60,954
93
137
189
279
288
132
207
325
450
469
16,121
35,630
69,497
97,631
19226
7,682
15,485
30,402
36,677
1927* . .
1930s
1932<*
0 U. S. Bureau of Education, F. M. McDowell, The Junior College, 1919, Bulletin no. 35, pp. 47-8.
& Koos, Leonard V., "Recent Growth of the Junior College," School Review, April, 1928, vol. XXXVI, p. 258.
« Eells, Walter Crosby, The Junior College, Boston, 1931, p. 72.
* Campbell, Doak S., "Directory of the Junior College, 1932," Junior College Journal, January, 1932, vol. II,
p. 235.
The appearance of the junior college has been accompanied by an
increase in the number and variety of professional and pre-professional
courses in the last two years of the college. These last two years are now
[ 340 ]
EDUCATION
commonly designated as the senior college. It is by no means unusual
for students to devote these later years to courses in law and medicine
and thus secure credit for professional courses while completing their
college curricula.
Evidence of the trend toward professional courses in colleges is seen in
the fact that a number of undergraduate professional and semi-profes-
sional colleges have developed within universities, such as colleges of
education, colleges of commerce and administration, colleges of engineer-
ing and colleges of agriculture.
The wide diversification of educational opportunities at the college
level has tended to destroy the traditional solidarity of the American
college. This tendency has been drastically criticized by writers who
believe that the conventional four-year college is a highly significant
factor in American social life.6 The movement to separate junior colleges
from senior colleges and in some instances to establish the former in
public school systems has been regarded by these critics as especially
objectionable because the rise of the junior college more than any other
phase of the development of higher education tends to destroy a unique
American institution — the four-year college. Small colleges which do not
offer professional courses are very generally and in increasing measure
losing their students after the junior college period to the larger institu-
tions, where opportunities for professional study are provided. Many four-
year colleges are in reality junior colleges in the sense that they lose more
than half of their students each year.
There are indications other than those cited that the trend in American
educational organization is toward a secondary school which in the
length of its curriculum will be like the secondary schools of European
countries. Secondary education in Europe covers approximately the range
of the American high school and junior college. If the junior college move-
ment continues, as it seems likely to do, it will probably result in a
general extension upward of the secondary school. In that case, the college
as now organized will tend to disappear. The senior college will be
absorbed into a type of university organization in which the instruction
will be of the kind now commonly administered to graduate students.
Education of Girls and Women. — Table 14 shows the great increase
since 1900 in the number of young men and young women enrolled in
the secondary schools and colleges of the United States. It also shows
clearly one of the distinguishing characteristics of American education:
Opportunities have long been given to girls and women to secure education
above the elementary level. In the public secondary schools girls have
from the first been more numerous than boys. As the total registration
6 Palmer, George Herbert, "The Junior College," Atlantic Monthly, April, 1927, vol.
CXXXIX, pp. 497-501.
[341 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 14. — SEX DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS ENROLLED IN PUBLIC SECONDARY SCHOOLS
AND IN COLLEGES, BY NUMBER AND PERCENT, 1900-1930°
Type of institution and sex
1900
1910
1920
19306
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Public secondary schools:
Boys
216,207
303,044
41.6
58.4
398,525
516,536
43.6
56.4
=992,213
cl,207,176
45.1
54.9
2,115,228
2,284,194
48.1
51.9
Girls
Total
519,251
100.0
915,061
100.0
"2,199,389
100.0
4,399,422
100.0
Colleges:
Men
68,047
36,051
65.4
34.6
113,074
61,139
64.9
35.1
212,405
128,677
62.3
37.7
441,985
311,842
58.6
41.4
Women
Total*
104,098
100.0
174,213
100.0
341,082
100.0
753,827
100.0
"Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 698, 974.
* Data supplied by the U. S. OflSce of Education.
« Biennial Survey of Education, 1918-1920, p. 48.
d Students in normal schools and teachers' colleges are not included. If such students were included, the
total for 1930 would be 1,033,022.
has increased, the disparity has become less marked. Evidently in earlier
years girls were less attracted by industrial opportunities than were boys.
Furthermore, the social advantages gained by attendance on secondary
schools were stronger incentives to girls than to boys. In the colleges
men are in the majority but there has been a steady increase in the
percentage of women.
Evolution of Postgraduate Training and Research. — The most
important expansion of institutions of higher education in this country
is the development of the university, which provides training of the
postcollege level. The chief characteristic which distinguishes the uni-
versity from all other institutions of higher education is devotion to
research and productive scholarship. A generation ago American students
seeking training of university grade were compelled to go to Europe. The
colleges of the United States did not recognize cultivation of productive
scholarship as an institutional duty. Within the past thirty years, how-
ever, there has been a radical change in the conception of the functions
of a university. Productive scholarship has come to be thought of as a
cardinal virtue in the individual members of university faculties. Large
resources are devoted in both state and endowed institutions to stimula-
tion and support of research in all lines. American students now find it
possible to secure advanced training in many centers in this country and
the resort to European institutions for postgraduate study is much less
common than it was at the beginning of this century. The steady develop-
ment of graduate training leading to the degree of doctor of philosophy,
[ 342 ]
EDUCATION
the degree awarded to those who have reached the highest level of
achievement in postgraduate work, is indicated in Table 15.
TABLE 15. — MEN AND WOMEN RECEIVING THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY FROM
AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES, 1900-1930°
Year
Total
Men
Women
Year
Total
Men
Women
1900
342
322
20
1920
532
439
93
1910 . ...
409
365
44
1930&
2 024
1 692
332
° Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 698.
b Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
While the foregoing statements will undoubtedly be accepted as
accurate by all students of American education, any effort to evaluate
the results of American university training or to determine how far
research in this country is of high grade carries one into a sphere of the
most acrimonious disagreement. Critics of American education are
accustomed to scoff at the expansions which recent years have witnessed
in institutions of higher education. It is said that American universities
are without standards of selection and that in most instances the products
of so called "research" do not rise above the commonplace. It is even
asserted that America has universities in name only.
It is not the function of this chapter to attempt an answer to the critics
of American universities. The trend toward development of advanced
university activities is well established. The future of this trend is
perfectly clear. The outcomes of university training and research are of
such value that there will certainly be no turning back to the earlier
conception of institutions of higher education.
Other Educational Activities. — The developments in American
education which have been described up to this point are by no means the
only evidences of a new view as to the value of a broad intellectual
preparation for modern life. There is a marked tendency for the older
members of communities to seek opportunities for self -improvement after
they have passed the age of attendance on the ordinary institutions of
learning. Organized adult education is distinctly on the increase in this
country.
Public schools conduct evening classes for the instruction in rudi-
mentary subjects of adults who have had limited educational opportuni-
ties. Classes for illiterates and Americanization classes for foreigners who
are unacquainted with the English language and with American institu-
tions are common in all the larger cities. Vocational training for adults is
provided by night schools, by various types of extension courses and by
correspondence courses. The extent of night school attendance is shown
in Table 16.
[ 343 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 16. — CITIES OF 10,000 POPULATION AND MORE REPORTING NIGHT SCHOOLS AND
PERSONS ENROLLED IN NIGHT ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, HIGH SCHOOLS AND VOCATIONAL
SCHOOLS, 1918-1930°
Item
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
338
353
387
442
454
463
451
Number of persons:
Elementary schools
210,440
216,278
350,585
262,065
198,287
340,183
6370,333
High schools
258,299
281,003
331,510
358,532
411,520
483,077
490,502
Vocational schools
70,529
41,699
138,028
140,031
163,294
143,244
138,060
<• Biennial Survey of Education, 1916-1918, vol. Ill, p. 209; 1918-1920, p. 110; 1920-1922, vol. II, p. 75;
1922-1924, p. 395; 1924-1926, p. 625; 1926-1928, p. 505; 1928-1930, vol. II, p. 20.
6 Includes persons in Americanization schools.
Extension courses are offered by many universities, especially state
universities, which, in addition to providing lecture courses on such
academic subjects as history and literature, frequently give so-called
"short courses," in which groups of citizens are made acquainted with the
results of the latest researches in such diverse fields as agriculture,
homemaking and road construction, and with practical information about
such topics as machine construction and repairing.
The extent to which education through correspondence has developed
is shown by the fact that there are in this country 450 private correspond-
ence schools, 82 colleges and universities, 44 state normal schools and
teachers' colleges and 28 theological seminaries which offer correspondence
courses. There is an organization known as the National Home Study
Council, of which thirty-six of the stronger private correspondence schools
are members. This council has a catalogue of more than twenty-five
thousand courses which it uses in advising inquirers who are seeking
opportunities for self -improvement. The courses range in title from
"Roman Literature" and "American Diplomatic History" to "Beekeep-
ing" and "Reinforced Concrete."
Other private organizations and semi-public organizations, such as
social clubs, forums, workers' colleges, churches, young men's and women's
Christian associations and Chautauquas, also provide courses for adults.
A new agency which has possibilities of serving far more as a means of
public instruction than it has up to this time is the radio. Through it
music of high grade is becoming familiar to the American people. A
number of educational institutions are using the radio more or less
systematically in spite of competition and other difficulties. The future
of this instrument of instruction seems large.
Further evidence of the desire on the part of all classes of people for
broader intellectual experience is to be seen in the rapid development of
public libraries and in the increased consumption of published materials.7
7 Details are supplied in Chaps. IV and VIII.
[ 344 1
EDUCATION
Parent Education and Preschool Education. — A special branch of
adult education which has been developed in recent years is that which
aims to give parents training in the care of children. The development of
parent education is related to a movement which extends education to
very young children. So called "preschool education" provides for the
training of children in habits and activities that stabilize their emotions
and prepare them for life in social groups. The extent to which schools for
very young children have been established is indicated in the following
statements: "The number of nursery schools listed by the Bureau of
Education in 1926 was 67, and in 1928 it was 121. Many of the
schools listed in 1926 did not continue, and many new ones have since
been opened. Of those listed in 1928, there are 68 which were opened
during the years 1926, 1927, and 1928. The 121 schools are located
in seventy cities in twenty-seven states and the territory of Hawaii."8
A table prepared for the White House Conference on Child Health
and Protection shows that in 1930 there were 169 separate nursery
schools and 114 nursery schools conducted in conjunction with kinder-
gartens.9
Special Classes and Schools. — Diversification of school opportunities
is being provided for many groups of children whose education was
formerly neglected. Children who suffer from mental or physical handi-
caps, delinquent children and children in remote and isolated districts
are all being provided for as never before. Statistics which show the
increase in number of some of the special types of schools are presented
in Table 17.
TABLE 17. — SCHOOLS FOR BLIND, DEAF, AND FEEBLEMINDED AND SUBNORMAL CHILDREN,
1900-1927°
Kind of school
1900
1910
1922
1927
Number of schools for blind children
37
48
64
80
Number of schools for deaf children
114
130
154
168
Number of schools for feebleminded and subnormal children
29
41
214
303
"Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, pp. 1156, 1166, 1205.
All Year Schools. — A form of expansion of the educational program
which appears more commonly in institutions of higher education than
in elementary and secondary schools is that which keeps the institutions
in operation throughout the year, thus eliminating the long summer vaca-
tion. An all year university program was inaugurated by President
8 Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 287.
9 White House Conference on Child Health and Protection, Nursery Education, Report
of the Committee on the Infant and Preschool Child, New York, 1931, p. 19. See also
material in Chap. XV.
f 345 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
William R. Harper at the founding of the University of Chicago in 1892.
During the World War the various boards which considered social and
economic strategy urged universities, in the interests of more effective
use of their plants and with a view to training young people more rapidly
and therefore more economically, to follow the plan adopted by President
Harper. The United States Office of Education has a record of twenty-
three institutions of higher education which now operate on the four-
quarter plan.
Vacation schools, or summer schools, are commonly maintained by
the school systems of the larger cities as is shown in Table 18. Summer
high schools offer courses for pupils who are behind in their credits and
for pupils who want to graduate as soon as possible. Some of the summer
elementary schools are like the high schools in purpose; others offer
limited programs with chief emphasis on play and handwork. A few
cities, including Newark, New Jersey, Nashville, Tennessee, and Ali-
quippa, Pennsylvania, are experimenting with all year schools.
TABLE 18. — CITIES OF 10,000 POPULATION AND MORE REPORTING SUMMER SCHOOLS AND
PUPILS ENROLLED IN SUMMER ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOLS AND
HIGH SCHOOLS, 1922-1930"
Item
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
174
237
239
265
251
Number of pupils:
Elementary schools
206,075
228,812
276,830
260,468
265,821
Junior high schools
4,941
13,842
17,553
30,430
43,433
High schools
58,343
89,828
111,472
147,521
160,787
« Biennial Survey of Education, 1920-1922, vol. II, p. 75; 1922-1924, p. 395; 1924-1926, pp. 625-26; 1926-
1928, p. 506; 1928-1930, vol. II, p. 20.
Problems Resulting from Rapid Expansion of Education.10 — Expan-
sions in an educational system as extensive and as rapid as those which
have been described up to this point inevitably give rise to problems of
readjustment which require the highest wisdom for their solution. Indeed,
many of these problems can be solved only through experimentation
which in some cases involves the compromise or even drastic invasion of
vested interests and deepseated prejudices.
For example, expansion of the secondary school, which was formerly
almost exclusively a college preparatory school, has encountered resist-
ance from those who regard the enlargement of the secondary school
program of courses and the enrollment of pupils of all levels of intelligence
as menaces to educational standards. Acute controversies have arisen in
some cases between representatives of colleges and representatives of
10 On the relation of educational problems to population problems, see Chap. I.
[ 346 ]
EDUCATION
secondary schools. Secondary school teachers and administrators have
often demanded that colleges accept the graduates of their institutions
without inquiry into the particular courses pursued by these graduates.
The authorities of the colleges have contended that it is impossible to
carry on creditable college work unless there is a careful selection of a
limited number of the best qualified graduates of high schools who have
taken secondary school courses directly related to college work.
The solution of the problem of college admissions has been sought in
legislation in some cases. In a number of states the legislatures have pre-
scribed that state universities and colleges must accept without condition
graduates of approved high schools. Another method of adjusting the
situation is through the action of voluntary associations which include
officers of both colleges and secondary schools. These associations have
attempted by conference to reach agreements as to the proper relations
between the two groups of institutions.
It cannot be stated that the problem of college admissions has been
solved. In a very true sense this problem is one of the new problems of
civilization. No other nation has attempted to open the opportunities
of higher education to all classes on such liberal terms as has the United
States. No other nation has educational institutions which have as much
autonomy and as much freedom of experimentation under local control
as have the schools and institutions of higher learning in the United
States. Adjustments under these conditions are not easy to make.
American education is made acutely aware of all its problems because
of the freedom with which Americans criticize their public institutions.
European education is far more under central governmental control than
is education in the United States. European institutions thus not only
share the prestige of the central government, but they also have the
prestige which comes from long established traditions. In the United
States it is almost literally true that educational institutions are without
the defenses of official approval and traditional sanction. Whoever will
may attack the schools and he will find a sympathetic audience. If there
is any sphere of social life in which American tolerance of criticism has
had full play it is the sphere of education.
This chapter is not concerned with the detailed criticisms which have
been made of American schools except in so far as these criticisms have
led to the development of institutional practices intended to correct the
faults which critics point out. It has been contended, for example, that
classes in public schools are so large that pupils do not receive proper
individual attention. Private schools have been organized to provide
small classes. Public schools in certain communities have developed
devices of individual instruction by eliminating some of the ordinary
class exercises and substituting personal conferences between teachers
f 347 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
and pupils, usually on the basis of written work by the pupils. In the
meantime, the real trend in schools in general is toward larger classes.
Vigorous attacks on the public schools have been made on the ground
that teachers and pupils are so absorbed in narrow academic tasks that
the larger social and moral lessons of life are neglected. This type of
attack sometimes takes the form of an assertion that the creative interests
of pupils in the fine arts and literature are neglected and that initiative
is destroyed through excessive emphasis on routine drill in formal sub-
jects. Public and private schools are attempting to meet this criticism by
experimenting with instruction in music and drawing and literary compo-
sition. Where there is less experimentation in these fields, it is asserted
by those in charge of the schools that resources are limited and the time
during which the school has supervision over the pupils is not adequate
for the accomplishment of all that is demanded.
Perhaps one of the most violent attacks made by critics of the schools
is expressed in the accusation that teachers are not equipped for their
duties either in personal qualities or through proper training. It is true
that the selection and training of teachers must be recognized as among
the gravest problems of the American educational system. The recruiting
of teachers is one of the most exacting demands which the rapid expansion
of the schools of the United States has imposed on this generation. In
1900 the total attendance on colleges, including teacher training insti-
tutions, was 220,782. In 1930 the comparable figure was 1,033,022. The
problem of staffing colleges with their vastly increased enrollments, to
say nothing of the problem of providing for the teaching of 3,880,171
more pupils in public secondary schools than were attending such schools
in 1900, is a problem challenging all the intellectual resources of the
nation.
The next section of this chapter will describe what has been done in
recent years to meet the demand for improvement of teachers. As a
preface to that section, however, it may be legitimate to suggest that the
effects of criticism on education are beneficial only when the critics are
informed as to the magnitude of the task which has been undertaken and
only when due regard is exhibited for the efforts that are being made to
solve the numerous problems which confront the American educational
system. In education, as in other spheres of social life, much harm is done
by critics who make impossible demands on public institutions. There is
justification for the statement that conservatism is in some quarters
holding back American education. There is equal justification for the
statement that irresponsible radicalism is suggesting the abandonment
of useful practices and the substitution of practices which promise disaster
rather than remedy of existing deficiencies. What is needed in this coun-
try is systematic, scientifically conducted experimentation in education.
[ 348 1
EDUCATION
Expansion is going on and will continue. Adjustment will be wise only
to the degree to which public and private institutions are subjected to
searching scientific inquiry which will describe their practices and show
the results secured through these practices. Mere speculative attacks on
public education and theoretical recommendations which are lacking in
sympathetic understanding of American schools are worse than valueless.
II. TEACHERS AND TEACHING PROBLEMS
Professional Training of Teachers. — Striking statistics which show
an increase in facilities for the training of teachers are supplied in Table
19. Although the first public normal school in the United States was
organized as early as 1839, the development of normal schools was very
slow until the last decade of the nineteenth century. Since 1900 normal
schools have made rapid progress not only in securing financial support
but in advancing their admission requirements, in improving their
methods of teaching and in enlarging the content of instruction. Many of
them are now adopting the designation "teachers' college" as an indica-
tion of their improved status.
TABLE 19. — RECEIPTS OF TEACHERS' COLLEGES AND NORMAL SCHOOLS FROM PUBLIC
FUNDS FOR CURRENT EXPENSES, 1900-1930°
Year
Receipts
Year
Receipts
1900
$2,786,123
1920
$15,589,004
1910
6,675,152
1930
37,210,645
a Biennial Survey of Education, 1928-1930, vol. II, p. 8.
Evidence of the enrichment of the curriculum of state teacher training
institutions is presented in Table 20, which shows the increase from 1900
to 1930 in the number of courses announced in the catalogues of fourteen
such institutions selected as typical of different sections of the United
States.
A national survey of teacher training is now being conducted by the
United States Office of Education under a special appropriation made
by Congress. This survey should show the demands for trained teachers
and the lines of desirable organization of the teacher training program of
the United States.
Teachers' Licenses. — With the development of teacher training
institutions there has been a steady advance in all states in the require-
ments for teachers' licenses. Licenses to teach in public elementary schools
were originally granted in the older states by the local school trustees.
Gradually it became apparent that the local district is not competent
either to train teachers or to judge whether or not a person is qualified to
[ 349 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 20. — COURSES ANNOUNCED IN THE CATALOGUES OF FOURTEEN STATE NORMAL
SCHOOLS AND TEACHERS' COLLEGES, 1900-1930°
Institution
1900
1910
1920
1930
Arizona State Teachers College Flagstaff
(6)
48
105
284
Colorado State Teachers College Greeley
83
189
493
723
Georgia State Teachers College, Athens
C67
91
138
197
Kansas State Teachers College, Emporia
81
420
428
623
North Texas State Teachers College, Den ton
(d)
55
378
438
Northern Illinois State Teachers College, DeKalb
68
132
230
342
Southeastern State Teachers College, Durant, Oklahoma
(d)
150
287
475
State Normal School, Gorham, Maine
32
81
71
82
State Normal School, Westfield, Massachusetts
29
22
23
35
State Teachers College, Chico, California
45
64
68
265
State Teachers College, Jacksonville, Alabama
'66
70
63
117
State Teachers College Mansfield Pennsylvania
52
125
149
167
State Teachers College, Oshkosh, Wisconsin
86
111
210
317
Western State Teachers College, Kalamazoo, Michigan
/122
178
314
434
0 The catalogues from which the data are derived are in some cases one or two years earlier or later than the
years indicated. Where the differences in dates are more than two years, special footnotes are included.
6 Data not available.
e Number for 1903.
d Institution not organized.
• Number for 1904.
/ Number for 1905.
conduct school. The function of licensing teachers was accordingly
assumed by state departments of education. This transfer of the licensing
function has resulted in a general elevation of standards. While there are
some low grade licenses even today in most states, the trend is distinctly
upward. It is also in the direction of specializing licenses so that a candi-
date receives a statement of qualification to teach in a particular division
of the school system or to teach a particular subject or group of subjects.
Improvements in the Status of Teachers. — The changes in require-
ments for entrance into the teaching profession have been accompanied
by changes in the privileges of those who have been admitted. Legislation
has been enacted in a number of states prescribing minimum salaries,
allowing teachers to secure leaves of absence, assuring teachers of either
permanent tenure or indefinite tenure after a period of trial and making
provisions for retirement and pensions. As a result of this legislation the
teaching profession is now much more attractive than it was in former
times.
The average salaries of teachers in public schools from 1914 to 1930
are shown in Table 21. There was a period during the World War and
immediately after when the increases in teachers' salaries did not keep
pace with the increases in the cost of living. It was not until after 1920
that the average salaries of teachers began to have the real value that
they had before the war. Since 1922 they have increased far beyond the
pre-war level. The steady upward trend since 1922 has resulted in large
[ 350 )
EDUCATION
TABLE 21. — AVERAGE SALARIES OF PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS, 1913-1930°
Year
Average
salary
Index number
of the cost of
living6
Corrected
average
salary
Year
Average
salary
Index number
of the cost of
living6
Corrected
average
salary
1014
$525
100 0
$525
1924
1,227
168 6
$727
1916
563
110 0
512
1926
1,277
172 8
789
1918
635
156.0
407
1928
1,364
169.2
806
1920
871
194.8
447
1930
«1,420
166.8
851
1922
1,166
167.9
694
f
a U. S. Bureau of Education, Report of the Commissioner of Education, 1916, vol. II, p. 30; 1917, vol. II,
p. 77; Biennial Survey of Education, 1916-1918, vol. Ill, p. 164; 1918-1920, p. 59; 1920-1922, vol. II, p. 45;
1922-1924, p. 363; 1924-1926, p. 585; 1926-1928, p. 466.
* U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Cost of Living," Monthly Labor Review, February, 1932, vol. XXXIV,
p. 465. The original indexes are given for certain months at irregular intervals. The indexes given here were con-
structed by averaging the figures for the months specified which were closest to the indicated school years.
1913-1914, 1913 (100) and Dec. 1914; 1915-1916, Dec. 1915 and Dec. 1916; 1917-1918, Dec. 1917 and Dec.
1918; 1919-1920, June and Dec. 1919, and June 1920; 1921-1922, Dec. 1921 and June 1922; 1923-1924, Sept. and
Dec. 1923 and March and June 1924; 1925-1926, June and Dec. 1925 and June 1926; 1927-1928, June and
Dec. 1927 and June 1928; 1929-1920, June and Dec. 1929 and June 1930.
c Figures supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
increases in the number of candidates for teaching positions. It has also
tended to check the increase in the ratio of women to men in the teaching
profession. During the year 1931-1932 there were drastic reductions in
school budgets which resulted in direct or indirect reductions in teachers'
salaries in many school systems.
Men and Women in the Teaching Profession. — For many years there
was a steady increase in the percentage of women teachers employed in the
schools. Men seldom serve in the elementary schools except as teachers in
the upper grades or as principals and supervisors. High schools and
institutions of higher education employ a far larger percentage of men
than do elementary schools. The facts are presented in Table 22. There
have been small increases during recent years in the percentages of women
teachers in elementary schools, colleges and professional schools. In the
high schools and normal schools there have been increases in the percent-
ages of men teachers. The fact that on the whole men teachers were
relatively more numerous in 1930 than in 1920 is undoubtedly to be
explained in part by the higher salaries paid to teachers since the World
War.11
Special Training of College Teachers. — The movement to improve
the training of teachers has reached the point where better training of
college teachers is advocated by influential educational authorities. In
1929 the Association of American Colleges addressed a communication to
the graduate schools of universities stating that it is the experience of the
colleges that the teachers whom they employ are not properly trained. It
11 For special discussion of women teachers in schools and colleges, see Chap. XIV.
[ 351 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 22. — MEN AND WOMEN TEACHERS IN FIVE TYPES OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, BY
NUMBER AND PERCENT, 1900-1930°
Type of institution and sex
1000
1910
1920
1930*
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Public and private elementary
schools:
Men
123,064
306,042
28.7
71.3
96,762
419,524
18.7
81.3
69,346
552,199
11.2
88.8
68,705
633,819
9.8
90.2
Women
Total
429,106
100.0
516,286
100.0
621,545
100.0
702,524
100.0
Public and private high
schools:
Men
Women
Total
Universities and colleges:
Men
14,447
16,042
47.4
52.6
23,402
29,411
44.3
55.7
38,084
78,820
32.6
67.4
'82,689
"152,405
35.2
64.8
30,489
100.0
52,813
100.0
116,904
100.0
"235,094
100.0
8,987
2,110
81.0
19.0
14,051
3,230
81.3
18.7
22,626
7,708
74.6
25.4
39,735
14,460
73.3
26.7
Women
Total
Professional schools:
Men
11,097
100.0
17,281
100.0
30,334
100.0
54,195
100.0
8,277
0
100.0
0.0
13,285
0
100.0
0.0
10,603
312
97.1
2.9
15,562
652
96.0
4.0
Women
Total
8,277
100.0
13,285
100.0
10,915
100.0
16,214
100.0
Public and private teachers'
colleges and normal schools:
Men
1,860
2,512
42.5
57.5
2,195
3,719
37.1
62.9
3,560
6,027
37.1
62.9
5,995
8,468
41.5
58.5
Women
Total
4,372
100.0
5,914
100.0
9,587
100.0
14,463
100.0
0 Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 426.
6 Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
c Includes teachers in junior high schools.
was contended in this communication that the graduate schools require
too much attention on the part of prospective college teachers to formal
and unproductive research. This communication gave rise to a vigorous
discussion, the result of which will undoubtedly be more attention in the
future to the specific preparation of college teachers for their professional
activities.
Teacher Training in Summer Schools. — An important contribution
to the better professional training of teachers in institutions of all levels
from the elementary school through the college is being made by the
summer sessions or special summer schools now conducted by all the
leading universities and by many teachers' colleges. The attendance on
summer sessions has increased rapidly in recent years, as is shown by
Table 23. The great majority of those attending these sessions are
[ 352 ]
EDUCATION
teachers. Bonuses, increases in salary and other rewards are offered by
many school systems to encourage summer study. Institutions of higher
education, often in response to the stimulation of standardizing associa-
tions, are insisting that the members of their faculties be in possession of
higher degrees. As a result, there is a large representation of college
teachers in attendance on summer sessions of universities.
TABLE 23. — STUDENTS ENROLLED IN SUMMER SESSIONS OF COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES
AND TEACHER TRAINING INSTITUTIONS, 1917-1929"
Year
Total
Colleges
and
universities
Teacher
training
institu-
tions
Year
Total
Colleges
and
universities
Teacher
training
institu-
tions
1917
132,683
54 624
78 059
1925
347 430
209 454
137 976
1919 . . .
168,186
94,838
73 348
1927
383 855
239 570
144 285
1921 . . .
267,971
148,063
119,908
1929*
387 906
249 050
138 856
1923
322,802
189,943
132,859
« Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 434.
* Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
Supervision. — There has been a steady increase in professional
supervision of teaching and of the other activities of schools. It was the
custom a century ago to leave the supervision of schools to lay public
officials. Teachers were visited at rare intervals by lay inspecting com-
mittees. Today the situation is very different. Practically every school in
the country has some measure of professional supervision through a local
superintendent and supervisors, through a county superintendent or
through the state department of education. Training for supervision, like
training for teaching, is being provided on a more liberal scale and
evidence that a candidate for a supervisory position has had such training
is now very generally required.
A recent statement describing the evolution of expert supervision may
be quoted to show the reasons why such supervision has become a part of
general school organization: "Some of the first superintendents of city
school systems were not even school men, and their duties were more
those of a school-board clerk or business manager of today than those of a
modern professional school superintendent . . .
"With the still more rapid growth of cities since about 1880 and the
still more rapid expansion of our city school systems since about 1900,
even further specialization of functions and delegation of authority has
become a necessity, if intelligent educational service is to be rendered to
the community supporting the schools. The problems relating to organiza-
tion, instruction, and school management have become far too technical
to be handled successfully by the ordinary layman, while the business
and clerical work has so increased in quantity as to demand the continuous
[ 353 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
services of an officer specially capable in such lines. Even more, the
problems relating to instruction and school organization have in them-
selves become so differentiated as to require, in our larger cities, a division
of executive functions among a number of specially trained educational
officers . . .
"There has been a marked tendency, within the past quarter of a
century, toward a very material reduction in the size of city school boards
and toward the entire elimination of their standing committees. There
has also been a marked tendency toward the delegation to expert officers,
not members of the board, of most of the powers and executive functions
formerly possessed and exercised by the city school boards, and the
establishment of the superintendent of schools as the chief executive
officer of the school system."12
In rural schools supervision has developed more slowly than in city
schools. Extracts from a recent bulletin describe the situation: "A little
more than two decades ago a movement was initiated to provide county
superintendents with assistants responsible for the improvement of class-
room instruction . . .
"While the increase [in the number of county supervisors] is en-
couraging, it leaves much to be desired according to those interested
in the extension of supervision. As shown in the table, only 516 of 2,122
counties have established supervision."13
In the same bulletin is an account of the achievements of pupils in
supervised and relatively unsupervised rural school districts in four
states. Pronounced superiority is shown in the supervised districts.
The Problem of Supplying Teachers. — In spite of all the efforts which
have been made to professionalize teachers and school administrators,
untrained persons are still to be found in charge of many schools, and,
especially in rural sections, supervision is sometimes so limited as to be
ineffective. It is estimated by the National Survey of the Education of
Teachers that between 20 and 30 percent of the elementary school
teachers of this country have less than two years of education beyond the
high school and that between 10 and 15 percent of the teachers in senior
high schools have less than four years of college education. Much larger
percentages of both groups of teachers are without special professional
training.
As was pointed out earlier, the draft on the nation's material and
intellectual resources to staff schools and colleges is one of the most
exacting demands made on the American educational system. The
average tenure of teachers is between seven and nine years. At least
12 Cubberley, Ellwood P., Public School Administration, Boston, 1929 (revised), pp.
161-2.
13 U. S. Office of Education, Annie Reynolds, Supervision and Rural School Improvement,
1930, Bulletin no. 31, pp. 2-3.
[ 354]
EDUCATION
every nine years more than a million new teachers are required by the
educational system of the country. When it is recognized that the teaching
profession must compete with industry and with the other professions
for the higher grades of intelligence, the magnitude of the task of recruit-
ing the teaching profession is apparent.
Improvements in Methods of Teaching. — The professional training
of teachers has been accompanied by widespread experimentation with
methods of instruction. The movement to introduce radical changes in
methods of teaching made decided progress during the last decade of the
nineteenth century. A notable group of educational reformers attacked
the methods then in use as formal and unadapted to the experiences of
pupils. The efforts of these reformers were powerfully reinforced during
the early years of this century by the findings which issued from tests
and measures applied to school results. After the application of these
tests the educational world was convinced that formal drill was not so
effective as it had been assumed to be.
No phase of teaching was more vigorously criticized than the formal
recitation which resulted from the slavish use of textbooks. American
schools differ radically from the schools of Europe in the fact that they
depend largely on textbooks while most of the instruction in European
schools is oral. The use of textbooks has the advantage of supplying pupils,
provided they are competent readers, with a range of information broader
than that which is likely to be in the possession of individual teachers.
On the other hand, the use of textbooks has the distinct disadvantage
that teachers and pupils may become dependent on verbal formulae. It
was the universally accepted procedure in the middle of the nineteenth
century and a very common procedure at later periods for teachers to
conduct recitations which were literally exercises in verbatim repetition
of the sentences in the textbooks. It was against formalism of this type
that the reformers directed their most vigorous attacks.
Although it survives in some quarters, the memoriter method of
teaching and learning is now very generally recognized as inadequate.
New methods are being experimented with on a large scale. Laboratory
exercises are being employed, especially in courses in the sciences. Shop
exercises have been introduced in many schools. The substitution of the
library method is becoming increasingly common. Today in many schools,
even schools at the elementary level, pupils are supplied with several
books on any subject which they are studying. They thus become ac-
quainted with the method of comparing different views and different
modes of presentation and they cultivate intellectual independence
through the evaluation of what they read.
Another innovation in teaching is known as "supervised study."
This is a form of expert guidance of pupils in methods of attacking intel-
f 355 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
lectual problems in order that they may avoid the ineffective methods
which they are likely to adopt if left to themselves. For example, a pupil
who is confused about the reasoning that is outlined in his textbook in
geometry often prepares for recitation by committing to memory the
words and letters of the textbook. Such a pupil is shown that he is not
really learning and is led by direct instruction to adopt a method of
analysis and reasoning which the teacher as an expert in the field knows
to be advantageous.
In order to provide opportunity for this new type of intellectual
guidance many schools have reconstructed their daily programs. Some-
times a separate period is set aside for consultations between pupils and
teachers. Sometimes the class periods are 'lengthened from forty or forty-
five minutes to sixty minutes or even ninety minutes and the teachers
are directed to use the longer periods partly for recitation and partly
for supervised study.
Various methods of individual instruction have been adopted in
recent years. Reform in this respect was made first in institutions of
higher education through the adoption of the elective system. In lower
schools differentiated curricula for bright and dull pupils have been
arranged. Experiments have also been tried with minimum assignments
for all members of a class and additional assignments for the abler
pupils. Sometimes pupils have been classified according to ability and
instruction has been adapted by various devices to the different classes.
Individual teaching is sometimes carried a step farther. Each pupil
is thought of as so distinctly different from all other pupils that he is
allowed to exercise his initiative not only with regard to methods of
study but with regard to the topics to be studied. Class organization
and the coherent sequences which have characterized the traditional
courses of instruction are sometimes abandoned and the individual is
encouraged to discover and follow his personal intellectual or practical
interests. Extreme reconstructions of the educational program, such as
are referred to in this paragraph, are found in small private schools
rather than in ordinary schools. It is quite certain that no movement to
abandon a systematic curriculum can be successful.14
Significant experiments in new methods of organizing instruction
have been inaugurated in a number of colleges. One type of innovation
is designed to overcome the dangers of excessive specialization. The
multiplication of courses has resulted in a distinct limitation of the
opportunities of students to come in contact with all the different lines
of study which are desirable for one who is to be fully equipped for the
complex life of modern society. It is difficult for a student of the sciences,
14 For further discussion of the trend toward individualization, as shown in social case
work, juvenile courts, probation, etc., see Chaps. XXII and XXIII.
[ 356 ]
EDUCATION
for example, to find the time to secure acquaintance with literature.
General survey courses, or orientation courses as they are sometimes
called, have therefore been developed. These courses give a general view
of broad fields of learning rather than intensive drill in narrow specialties.
Another change which is being introduced, especially in the later years
of the college, consists in the substitution of extended personal readings
for class exercises. It is believed that students can be trained to carry on
independent study more effectively if they select some field of concen-
trated individual readings instead of following specific assignments made
by a class instructor.
The changes in educational procedure which have been cited are
merely selected illustrations. It is quite impossible in this chapter to give
more than an indication of the experimentation which is today engaging
the attention of educators.
Changes in methods of teaching not only have improved instruction
but also have contributed to far reaching modifications of general school
management. For example, a problem which has always made a large
demand on the energy of teachers is that of keeping pupils in order.
Under the older, more formal types of teaching, a kind of military disci-
pline was enforced and infractions of the system were severely punished,
frequently by the administration of corporal punishment. Since the
general abandonment of formal methods of teaching, the discovery has
been made that there are very few problems of discipline when the con-
tent of the curriculum is such as to appeal to the interests of pupils and
when the methods of teaching are such as to adjust instruction to indi-
vidual capacities and to the pupils' desire to apply what they learn to
practical situations. The harsher forms of punishment have entirely dis-
appeared from the school.
Stimulated by the discovery that pupils can be led rather than driven,
schools have adopted devices which are intended still further to cultivate
spontaneous cooperation on the part of pupils. For example, some schools
have been organized on the pattern of a municipality or state, and con-
trol of the organization has been turned over to the pupils, Such experi-
ments have succeeded only when the demand on untrained children that
they assume social responsibility has not been excessive. The mature
judgment of a sympathetic adult has been essential to the proper conduct
of a school city. Where adult supervision has not been supplied in ade-
quate degree, experiments in self government have uniformly ended in
failure.
A number of extra-curriculum activities, that is, activities entirely
outside the ordinary routine of the classroom, are fostered in schools and
colleges as means of absorbing the surplus energy of young people and
as means also of cultivating self reliance and independence in the assump-
[ 357 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tion of responsibilities. Clubs of various kinds are organized. Sports are
made a part of the physical education program or are developed as inde-
pendent after-school exercises. Frequently, after trial, an extra-curriculum
activity is adopted as a part of the instructional program and is recognized
as a legitimate addition to the curriculum.
The development of less formal types of instruction has been accom-
panied by the extensive development of plans of so-called "guidance"
of pupils. The richness of the curriculum, which is designed to meet
the varying tastes and capacities of individual pupils, and the fact that
the present-day school places greater responsibility on the pupil to plan
his own education require as counterparts a greater consideration by the
school of the needs of the individual and the devotion of much energy
to the directing of pupils. In many colleges and secondary schools coun-
selors, or special officers known as deans of men or boys and deans of
women or girls, have been appointed and assigned the duty of studying
the abilities and prospects of individual students and of giving them
guidance in planning their careers.
Guidance is of two distinct types. One type helps the student to find
his way through the intricacies of the elective system or through the
complexities of the school or college environment. Such guidance is
called "educational guidance" and is strikingly illustrated by the organ-
ization of so-called "Freshman Week." Many colleges require the mem-
bers of the entering class to arrive some days before the opening of the
autumn session for the purpose of receiving instruction about life in the
institution and about academic requirements. The second type of guid-
ance looks toward the student's future and aims to assist him in choosing
a vocation. The purpose of this kind of guidance is to help in finding an
occupation which is suited to the student's abilities and also to help in
shaping the student's school program so as to prepare for his chosen
calling. Guidance of this type is commonly called "vocational guidance."
Both types are now regarded as essential phases of a complete secondary
school or college program.
The better social adjustment of the individual which is sought through
educational and vocational guidance is sought also through other devices.
Schools have taken over in no small measure the function of preventing
delinquency. A new type of attendance officer has been developed in
many school systems, a type which can be described as a social worker
rather than a police officer. Sometimes visiting teachers have been added
to the school staff. Behavior clinics have been provided in many school
systems either through private philanthropy or at public expense. The
care of all phases of the welfare of pupils is coming to be recognized as a
duty which society must assume and for which provision must be made
through public institutional organizations.
[ 358 ]
EDUCATION
Enlarged Material Equipment. — Present day programs of instruction
require a type of material equipment which was not called for when
schools administered meager curricula and when classes were conducted
by the recitation method.
The following rooms are included in a recently erected junior high
school :
Thirty regular classrooms.
An auditorium seating 728 persons and
equipped with motion picture booth,
stage, proscenium, etc.
One boys' gymnasium (60 by 90) equipped
with lockers, showers, director's office,
etc.
Two girls' gymnasiums (60 by 54 and 60
by 44) equipped with lockers, showers,
restrooms, and director's office.
A corrective gymnasium.
A swimming pool.
A cafeteria seating 650 children at one time.
An administration suite for the principal
and deans.
A library with an outside entrance so that it
may be available for adult community use.
A doctor's, dentist's, and nurse's suite.
A civics room.
Four science rooms.
Four art rooms.
Two mechanical drawing rooms.
Two commercial rooms.
One typewriting room.
One band and orchestra room.
Two chorus rooms.
Two sewing rooms.
Two cooking rooms.
One wood shop.
One printing shop.
One general metal shop.
One home mechanics room.
One electric shop.
Special rooms for the janitorial and engi-
neering force.
Special restrooms and workrooms for
teachers.
This list of rooms shows that special equipment is provided for
many units of the new curriculum. The fact that there are laboratories,
drawing rooms, shops, rooms for home economics, and a library empha-
sizes what has been said regarding the enrichment of the curriculum
and regarding the development of new methods of teaching. The principle
that a school building should be adapted to its special functions is new
but it has gained wide acceptance. If one looks at a picture of an older
school building, one immediately recognizes that its external architecture
was dictated by the church, with which the school was originally affiliated.
Not many years ago the school was, in its interior structure, a foursquare
room with no furnishings except desks and seats. The room was lighted
by windows placed without regard to the hygiene of lighting. Ventilation
and heating were of a primitive type. There was no provision for separat-
ing the pupils of the different grades from one another.
As late as 1910 the architect who was employed to design a school
building usually proceeded with less regard for the educational plans of the
school than for the external appearance of the building. The erection of a
school building was thought to be a business matter for which the
academic staff had no talent. Today all the larger school systems have
special administrative divisions in charge of building plans and the
smaller systems more frequently than formerly employ architects who
[ 359 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
recognize the principle that a school building is not properly planned
unless full regard is given to the instructional program of the
school.
The relation of the plans of a school building to instructional arrange-
ments can be very impressively illustrated by reference to a type of
elementary school which has become common in recent years, namely, the
so-called "platoon school." A platoon school is provided with such facili-
ties as an auditorium, a gymnasium, a swimming pool, shops and labora-
tories. Evidently these special rooms cannot be used in the same way as
conventional classrooms. In any one of the special rooms only a part of the
school program can be carried on. Pupils must, accordingly, be accom-
modated elsewhere in the building for a part of the day. Pupils move about
from period to period, sometimes occupying the special rooms mentioned,
sometimes occupying ordinary schoolrooms where the conventional
subjects such as reading, writing and arithmetic are taught. The pupils
are organized in groups or platoons, which alternate in the use of the
various facilities. Hence the name "platoon school." It is to be noted that
the organization of the pupils into platoons would be of no advantage if
the physical equipment of the school were not much more elaborate than
that provided in a school building of the older type.
Well constructed modern school buildings are carefully planned with
reference to lighting, ventilation and toilet facilities. They are equipped
with hygienic furniture. They are supplied with rooms for medical
examinations and dental clinics. The presence of these facilities shows that
communities are coming to think of the schools as public agencies for the
care of children's physical well being as well as for their mental training.
Many new school buildings have projection apparatus for visual education
and radio equipment, thus providing for new types of instruction.
Some school buildings, especially those in the larger centers of popula-
tion, have been constructed so as to serve the adults of the communities
in which they are located as centers for social gatherings. The auditorium
and the gymnasium are so placed that they are easily accessible and
readily used at hours when the school is not in session.
School yards have undergone expansion no less extensive than that
which has been made in buildings. A report which supplies strong evidence
in support of this statement contains the following account of the provi-
sions which are being made in law with regard to school yards : "Laws have
been passed in eight states requiring that certain areas be provided for
school playgrounds. Rules and regulations have been made by state
boards of education in twenty states requiring certain areas for school
sites. Definite areas have been suggested as standards for city and
rural schools of various enrollments by thirty-six state departments of
education.
[ 360 1
EDUCATION
"Areas required by law vary from one to six acres. Areas required by
rules and regulations of the state boards of education vary in the ele-
mentary schools from one to six acres, and in the high, junior high, and
senior high schools from two to ten acres. Areas recommended by state
boards of education vary in the elementary schools from one to twelve,
in junior high schools from one to ten acres, and in senior high schools
from one to twenty."15
College buildings and equipment have been expanded and improved
quite as much as have those of the lower schools. Laboratories and libraries
are far more fully equipped than formerly. Offices for consultation are
being supplied to faculty members and elaborate social accommo-
dations are being provided for students. The barren dormitories of a
generation ago have given place to commodious living quarters supplied
with modern equipment and providing for a type of community life
which is designed to contribute to the social education of students.
III. ADMINISTRATION AND CONTROL
Frequent use has been made in this chapter of the term " the American
educational system." Strictly speaking, there is no such system.
The administrative control of the schools and colleges of the United
States is in the hands of many different and entirely separate authorities.
Each state is quite independent in educational matters. As a result, there
are great divergencies in the organization of state school systems. Within
the states, local districts have very wide latitude in the conduct of schools
and many private agencies conduct educational institutions of grades
ranging from nursery schools to universities.
The Units of the American Educational System. — Historically, the
different institutions which supply education to American youth grew up
quite independently and originally served different purposes. The early
colleges were schools for the training of the clergy. The elementary schools
were the schools of the common people. The first high schools were essen-
tially college preparatory schools. The normal schools when first organized
had nothing in common with the colleges and universities. Not only were
the various units of the educational system distinct and separate in origin
and purpose but even at the present time they often derive their support
from different sources and are, as was noted earlier, under the control of
separate boards.
The influence which has gradually compelled all these diverse units to
become parts of a more or less harmonious system is the social demand for
efficient treatment of the young people who pass from unit to unit. As the
pupil population passing from the elementary school to the secondary
15 U. S. Office of Education, Marie M. Ready, School Playgrounds, 1930, Pamphlet no.
10, p. 39. See also Chap. XVIII.
[ 361 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
school has increased, it has become necessary for the two institutions to
coordinate their activities more completely.16 Similarly, as the registration
of students in colleges has increased, the requirements for admission have
been modified to conform to the ability of secondary schools to educate
average pupils. Rigidly prescribed items have been replaced by general
specifications corresponding closely to the conditions for graduation
imposed by secondary schools.
As was pointed out earlier in this chapter, adjustments between col-
leges and secondary schools have been effected in part by legislation and
in part through the action of voluntary associations. Perhaps the most
striking example of organized cooperation is to be seen in the so-called
"regional associations," in which representatives of colleges and second-
ary schools come together for the purpose of determining standards and
preparing lists of approved institutions. These regional associations,
though they have no legal authority, have gained such prestige that
institutions regard it as highly desirable that they be approved by one of
the associations.
Federal Participation in Education. — The absence of direct federal
control over the schools of the United States is, as was pointed out earlier,
one of the distinguishing characteristics of the political organization of
this country. Participation by the federal government in public education
has been through subventions of one kind or another or through the
collection and dissemination of information about the educational
institutions of the nation.
In the early years of our national history, especially during the opening
up of the states which were organized out of the Northwest Territory,
the federal government gave sections of the public domain for the support
of schools but did not supervise the disposition of the land thus given.
During the Civil War Congress gave to the states subventions of land
and money for the specific purpose of encouraging education in agriculture
and the mechanical arts. A loose form of supervision, hardly more than an
annual audit, was attached to these subventions. Later subventions,
similar to those inaugurated during the Civil War, were made from time
to time without increased control until 1914, when a law was passed giving
federal aid to agricultural education and stipulating that the states, if they
accepted this aid, must match from their own funds dollar for dollar the
amounts supplied out of the federal treasury. Since the federal subsidies
were for a specified purpose and required matching, they operated to
direct state funds into the channel which was determined by the federal
law. There was thus created a form of indirect control over state educa-
16 Seventh Yearbook of the Department of Superintendence, The Articulation of the Units
of American Education, National Education Association, Washington, 1929; Ninth
Yearbook of the Department of Superintendence, Five Unifying Factors in American Educa-
tion, National Education Association, Washington, 1931.
[ 362 ]
EDUCATION
tion. During the World War Congress took another step in the direction
of control of state education. The Smith-Hughes Law, passed in 1917
for the purpose of encouraging vocational education, not only specifies the
type of education for which federal subsidies are to be used and requires
matching of funds but also prescribes that the plans formulated by the
states for the use of federal money must be acceptable to a special federal
board — the Federal Board for Vocational Education.
The trend toward increased determination of state educational
policies by federal influence showed itself very impressively in the enabling
acts which were the bases for the transfer from territorial status to state-
hood of a number of the newer states. The latest enabling acts were far
more specific in their requirements regarding education than were the
earlier enabling acts.
Those who favor the successive steps in the direction of control of
education taken by the federal government hold that Congress is more
sensitive to the social needs of the country as a whole than are the various
state legislatures. For example, it seems difficult to secure from state
legislatures funds for the support of scientific research while Congress
has repeatedly shown its willingness to appropriate money for research
enterprises. It is further contended by those who favor a measure of
federal control of education that higher standards can be maintained
under direct federal supervision than are likely to be maintained under
state or local supervision.
It is widely believed, on the other hand, that the exercise of federal
control of education tends to weaken local and state initiative and that in
the long run education will profit by adherence to the American tradition
of local control.
There has appeared in recent years in various quarters a reaction
against the form of the later federal grants for education and against the
disposition exhibited by some federal agencies to dominate state policies
in education. The National Advisory Committee on Education, appointed
to formulate a policy for federal participation in education, overwhelm-
ingly opposed dictation to the states directly or indirectly. This com-
mittee recommended that in the future no specifications be made of
particular phases of education to be supported by federal grants, that
no requirement of matching be imposed when federal aid is provided and
that no approval of plans be required.17
The question of the extent to which federal money shall be given to
the states for the support of education is not easy to answer. The income
tax has provided the federal government with vast resources. Most of the
17 Federal Relations to Education, Part I, Report of the National Advisory Committee on
Education, Washington, 1931, pp. 37-8. For further information on this subject, see Chaps.
XXV and XXVII.
[ 363 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
taxing systems of the individual states are antiquated and overburdened.
So long as there are large revenues derived from the federal income tax,
it is natural that urgent demands should be made for federal support of
education. Furthermore, with the present concentration of wealth in a
few urban centers, it is difficult to adjust taxation except through the
national government in such a way as to provide some of the less densely
populated states with the funds necessary to conduct schools.18
Federal participation in education is universally regarded with favor
when it consists in the collection and dissemination of statistical and
other kinds of information about American education. Only a federal
agency can perform these functions on an adequate scale. The United
States Office of Education has for many years prepared and published
statistical and descriptive reports which rank as the most complete
educational reports published by any nation in the world. In the perform-
ance of its function as an information collecting agency, the United States
Office of Education is seriously handicapped by lack of financial resources
and by the fact that it is dependent on the purely voluntary cooperation
of states and educational institutions. It has no authority to require
reports. Furthermore, the information which is available in various state
departments of education is not uniform and is consequently not readily
usable for federal reports. A recent study19 showed that the departments
of education of ten representative states collect information on a total
of 2,005 different items and that no single item of information is collected
by all the ten state departments. In recent years the Office of Education
has been gradually enlarged. Since 1929 it has been relieved of certain
administrative functions and has been given appropriations which have
made possible an improvement of its services as an information gathering
and information disseminating agency.
Vigorous discussions have been going on for some years as to the
best form of organization of the federal agencies which deal with educa-
tion. All the federal departments are engaged to some degree in educa-
tional activities.20 The Department of the Interior includes the Office of
Education and has charge of Indian schools and the schools for the native
population in Alaska; the Department of War and the Department of
the Navy conduct institutions for the training of officers and both depart-
ments have charge of schools in outlying possessions of the United States ;
the Department of Agriculture supervises courses for adults as well as
for children; the Department of Labor, through its Children's Bureau,
supervises many welfare activities which are closely related to education;
18 On taxation, see Chap. XXVI.
19 Reavis, William C., "Items of Information Collected by Departments of Public
Instruction of Ten Representative States," Elementary School Journal, May, 1929, vol.
XXIX, pp. 666-73.
20 Federal Relations to Education, Part I, pp. 117-21.
[364]
EDUCATION
and other departments participate in education in less conspicuous ways.
Whether an attempt should be made to coordinate all these activities
through the organization of a new federal department, through the
creation of a council, or by some other device is a question on which
there are many divergent opinions. The one principle on which there
seems to be general agreement is that no federal agency should be endowed
with power to control the educational systems of the states. The states
are the primary sovereigns in control of education.
Education as Controlled by the States. — The control exercised by
the various states over the schools within their borders is limited only
by the prohibition of the federal Constitution that no state shall deprive
any person of liberty or of property without due process of law or deny
to any person the equal protection of the laws. The limitations of state
control are illustrated in two important decisions of the Supreme Court
of the United States.
In 1919, during the reaction of war times against the teaching of
German in the schools, the legislature of the state of Nebraska passed a
law prohibiting the teaching of German in public and private schools in
that state to pupils who had not completed the work of the eighth
grade. The Supreme Court of the United States declared this law uncon-
stitutional. The following statement is quoted from the decision: "No
emergency has arisen which renders knowledge by a child of some
language other than English so clearly harmful as to justify its inhibition
with the consequent infringement of rights long freely enjoyed."21 In
1922 the state of Oregon passed by referendum a law which in effect
abolished all private elementary schools. The Supreme Court of the
United States declared the law unconstitutional because it deprived
private schools of property, and parents of liberty, without due process
of law. A brief quotation from the decision is as follows: "As often here-
tofore pointed out, rights guaranteed by the Constitution may not be
abridged by legislation which has no reasonable relation to some purpose
within the competency of the state. The fundamental theory of liberty
upon which all governments in this Union repose excludes any general
power of the state to standardize its children by forcing them to accept
instruction from public teachers only. The child is not the mere creature
of the state ; those who nurture him and direct his destiny have the right,
coupled with the high duty, to recognize and prepare him for additional
obligations."22
The extent to which states may go in controlling the curricula of
public educational institutions is indicated by the fact that a number of
21 Meyer v. State of Nebraska, 43 S. Ct. 625, 262 U. S. 390, 67 L. Ed. 1042, 29 A.L.R.
1446.
22 Pierce v. Society of the Sisters of the Holy Names of Jesus and Mary, 45 S. Ct. 571,
268 U. S. 510, 69 L. Ed. 1070, 39 A.L.R. 468.
f 365 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
states now prohibit by statute the teaching of the doctrine of biological
evolution in state supported institutions. Another type of control of the
curricula of the lower schools is accomplished in many states through
state adoption of textbooks.
Legislatures have often enacted laws prescribing that schools teach
certain subjects which are supposed to develop patriotism or to promote
general welfare. A study published in 1925 contains a summary table of
legislative prescriptions in force in 1903, 1913 and 1923. This is reproduced
as Table 24. During the period from 1923 to 1930 at least 131 new pre-
scriptions were added to the list. Within this period sixty-seven prescrip-
tions dealing with nationalism alone were written into the statutes of
various states. Other prescriptions were as follows: health and prohibi-
tion, 17; religious and ethical subjects, 16; days of special observance,
16; conservation of life and property, 5; humaneness, 4; practical and
cultural subjects, 1; miscellaneous, 5.
TABLE 24. — SUMMARY OF CURRICULAR PRESCRIPTIONS FOR THE PUBLIC ELEMENTARY
SCHOOLS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1903-1923°
Topic
Number of prescriptions
Increase
1903
1913
1923
1903 to
1913
1913 to
1923
1903 to
1923
Nationalism
147
102
1
24
12
197
74
7
196
131
20
44
28
216
76
9
304
171
43
59
36
216
84
13
49
29
19
20
16
19
2
2
108
40
23
15
8
0
8
4
157
69
42
35
24
19
10
6
Health and "prohibition"
Conservation of life and property
Practical and cultural subjects
Humaneness
Miscellaneous subjects
Total
564
720
926
156
206
362
0 Flanders, Jesse Knowlton, Legislative Control of the Elementary Curriculum, Teachers College Contributions
to Education, no. 195, Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, 1925, p. 175.
When a legislature makes a prescription beyond the fundamental
subjects its action can usually be traced to the influence of a small group
of enthusiasts who are bent on using the schools as agencies for social
reform. The legislature very seldom accompanies its requirement that a
new subject be added to the school curriculum by any additions to the
support of schools or by any extension of the time during which schools
are in session. Teachers and school administrators are, accordingly, con-
fronted with the alternative of ignoring the law or crowding the new
subject into the school program by displacing instruction already in-
cluded. The former alternative is not infrequently chosen.
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EDUCATION
All the states in the United States have laws compelling children to
attend school. Most of the northern states enacted such laws before 1900.
Sixteen states — all of them in the south except Iowa — passed their first
compulsory school attendance laws after 1900; seven, between 1910 and
1918. The last state to take such action was Mississippi. The fact that
the southern states were the last to pass compulsory school attendance
laws is accounted for in part by the necessity of providing separate schools
for Negroes and in part by the demand for children in agricultural work.
There has been a marked tendency in recent years for all states to
advance the age of compulsory school attendance or otherwise increase
the requirements. Every state in the United States except Maine, which
had a strong law in 1875 and strengthened it in 1899, has, since 1900,
either advanced the age of required school attendance or increased the
number of days in the year during which pupils must attend school.
Four states now require attendance up to the age of eighteen, five up to
the age of seventeen, thirty-one up to the age of sixteen, and eight up
the age of fourteen or fifteen. Some of the states specify in their laws a
number of days less than the total number of days schools are in session,
while others require attendance for the full period schools are in session.
Some of the laws make attainment a substitute for age, prescribing that a
pupil must attend school until he is of a given age or until he has passed
a stipulated stage of schooling, such as the sixth grade or the eighth
grade.23
At the beginning of the twentieth century there were many states in
which the minimum age at which minors could be employed was one or
two years beyond the age which was prescribed in the compulsory school
attendance law. This fact shows that the doors of industry were closed to
young people before the age of compulsory school attendance was
advanced to its present high level. The tendency in recent years has been
for legislatures to prescribe an age of compulsory school attendance
equal to, or even beyond, the minimum age of employment.
The advances made in the age of compulsory school attendance have
not always been accompanied by suitable readjustments in the educational
system. A great many pupils are required by law to attend high schools
although these schools not infrequently continue to administer traditional
curricula which are wholly inappropriate for many of the pupils compelled
to attend.
Legislatures have tended, as was pointed out earlier, to raise the
requirements for teachers' licenses. Usually the laws requiring superior
training of teachers have been deprived of their full effect because provi-
sion has been made for various types of temporary low grade licenses.
23 For special discussion of the child at work, see Chaps. XV and XVI. On the number
of children employed, see Chap. VI.
[ 367 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Furthermore, legislatures have been very slow to enact laws requiring
districts to employ fully trained teachers. Until a requirement controlling
employment is added to the laws on licenses, many districts will continue
to employ at low salaries teachers with very little training.
Mention was made earlier of the fact that legislatures have been
induced during recent years to pass laws guaranteeing teachers permanent
tenure after a period of trial. Laws of this type have been sought by
teachers' organizations as protection against arbitrary dismissal. There
can be no doubt, however, that permanent tenure has the disadvantage of
producing an attitude of complacent lethargy on the part of many
teachers.
Minimum salary laws, pension laws and annuity laws have been passed
in large numbers since the World War. Teachers' organizations have
become powerful political factors since the passage of the constitutional
amendment giving women the franchise.
Legislatures have recognized increasingly in recent years the necessity
of defining more clearly than was common in the past the rights and
powers of school executives, especially those of the superintendent. A
typical problem relating to the superintendent may be cited as illustra-
tive. If the superintendent of a school system is to be effective, he must
be empowered to select competent teachers. Traditionally, the appoint-
ment of teachers has been the prerogative of the school trustees, that is,
of the lay board which represents the public and alone has the right to
commit the public to expenditures. On the other hand, it has become
increasingly true in recent years that the selection of trained teachers is a
technical duty which can be properly performed only by an educational
expert. There can be no doubt that enlightened public opinion is gradually
coming to a recognition of the fact that selection of teachers by a lay
board is altogether perversive of school administration.
Another problem which relates to the powers of the superintendent is
that of defining his control over expenditures. In many cases the superin-
tendent has no voice in the business management of the schools. It is said
in support of this type of arrangement that the superintendent, by virtue
of his preoccupation with school administration and because of his
academic training, is altogether incapable of dealing with business affairs.
On the other hand, it is contended by those who do not believe in the
separation of academic administration and financial administration that
all expenditures are made in the interest of education and that the execu-
tive in charge of the educational program should direct them.
A number of important administrative problems relate to the rights
and duties of the board of education. Bitter struggles have been waged
in the effort to subordinate boards of education to the political machines
in charge of local budgets. It is clearly stated in many court decisions,
EDUCATION
however, that such boards are state agencies for the control of schools,
not subordinate divisions of municipal governments.24
Boards of education are for the most part highly conservative. They
are made up in the main of professional and business people and are likely
to favor traditional policies and to be slow in accepting innovations.25
Perhaps the least satisfactory situation with respect to the administra-
tion and supervision of schools is to be found in rural areas. There are in
the United States approximately 150,000 school districts, of which the
great majority are rural. In some districts having one-room schools there
are three school trustees — three lay officials to supervise the work of a
single teacher. In many states there are more school trustees than
teachers. The type of supervision which is supplied by these lay trustees
is far from advantageous. Even where there are county superintendents
with some supervisory responsibilities, there is little or no improvement
in the situation. County superintendents are commonly elected by
popular vote. They are low salaried officials usually without professional
training. A hopeful tendency in some states is toward strengthened state
supervision. In other states there is a movement toward enlargement of
school units through consolidation of districts with the resulting possi-
bility of employing trained supervisors.
A few states have well organized and efficient state departments of
education but in general the state departments are not equipped to render
more than routine services to the school districts of the states. The chief
executives of these departments in thirty-three states are elected by
popular vote. The practice of electing state superintendents of schools is
inherited from the middle of the past century, when the franchise was
regarded as the bulwark of popular government. In recent years the trend
in the more highly organized state educational systems has been toward
the substitution of an appointive officer for the elected chief executive.26
There are many unsolved problems of school administration which
must be passed with hardly more than mention. Should the medical
inspection in schools and the sanitary requirements imposed on school
districts be under the control of school officers or under the control of
health officers ? To what extent should associations of parents and teachers
be allowed to influence the formulation of school policies ? How far should
the schools be used as avenues of communication with the homes of the
country by persons who are interested in propaganda, wholesome or
24 "A Decision of the Supreme Court of Wisconsin," Elementary School Journal,
January, 1926, vol. XXVI, pp. 334-8; "A Decision of the Supreme Court of Michigan," Ele-
mentary School Journal, March, 1926, vol. XXVI, pp. 493-7.
26 Counts, George S., The Social Composition of Boards of Education: A Study in the
Social Control of Public Education, Supplementary Educational Monographs, no. 33,
Department of Education, University of Chicago, 1927.
26 On the general trend toward fewer elective administrative officers, see Chap. XXIX.
[ 369 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
otherwise? For example, the bankers want to inculcate thrift; the
insurance companies want to teach safety and to improve health; organi-
zations in favor of good roads, international harmony, gardening and
other interests are continually knocking at the doors of the schools and
attempting to persuade school administrators to let them in.
The final solution of many of these problems depends on the view
which individual communities hold with regard to the school in its relation
to other social agencies. The general trend is undoubtedly in the direction
of a recognition of the school as society's chief agency for the care and
protection of children. The definition of public education is being broad-
ened every year. As has been pointed out earlier, the school is being
increasingly charged with new and important functions. It seems alto-
gether probable that this trend will continue.
Health Education. — No single indication of the trend toward the
enlargement of the scope of the activities of schools is more impressive
than the provision of health care and health instruction as a part of public
education.27 Not many years ago the home was regarded as responsible
for the child's physical condition. Only contagion was thought of as
concerning the school. Today the situation is changed. It is recognized
that many parents must be supervised in the control of even the most
rudimentary phases of children's health such as their diet. It is further
recognized that schools must interest themselves in the health of children
if they are to accomplish what they are commissioned to accomplish in
the way of intellectual training. In response to the demand for health
education, courses in hygiene are increasingly administered as part of the
regular curriculum; school luncheons are provided in many schools;
nurses and visiting teachers are frequently employed as members of the
regular staff; and psychiatrists are consulted in the best organized school
systems in cases of mental abnormalities.
Religious Instruction. — It is being urged in some quarters that religion
should not be neglected in the scheme of general education.28 The schools
of the United States are secular by tradition and law. Efforts are being
made in a few cities to correct what some people regard as a deficiency
of secular education. In these cities a part of the school time is devoted
to religious instruction; pupils are withdrawn from their regular
secular studies and are taught by special teachers provided by the
churches. Sometimes the pupils are allowed to go to neighboring churches
for instruction; sometimes rooms are provided in the school buildings for
the classes in religion. Where school time is not secured for religious
instruction, after-school classes are sometimes organized by the churches.
27 For further discussion of health education, see Chaps. XV and XXI.
28 For additional materials, see Chap. XX.
[ 370 1
EDUCATION
In general, the secular character of American schools resists direct
concessions to the demand for religious training when this demand
encroaches in any measure on public elementary and secondary schooling.
There is no general tendency to incorporate religion into the public school
curriculum.
Parochial elementary and secondary schools have been organized,
especially by the Catholic church, chiefly because religion is omitted from
the programs of public schools. Parochial schools have in recent years
increasingly participated in experimentation with new methods of
teaching and with enlargements of the content of instruction. They often
find it difficult to keep pace with publicly supported secular schools. They
are, however, especially in the larger centers of population, important
factors in providing for the training of children.
Educational Finance. — One of the chief problems of educational
administration is the problem of securing financial support for schools
and institutions of higher education. With the expansions that have
been taking place in American education in recent years and with the
changes in the value of the dollar, this problem has become acute.
Tables 25 and 26 give the gross statistics showing the recent very impres-
sive increases in public school expenditures and the value of school
property. Similar facts with regard to teachers' colleges and normal
schools were reported in Table 19 and facts with regard to other institu-
tions of higher education are shown in Table 27. During the year 1931-
1932 school budgets were in general reduced. The statistics for 1932-1933
will undoubtedly show further material reductions in expenditures for
public education.29
All the amounts reported in these tables are subject to correction
because of the changing value of the dollar. A simple correction by the
use of index numbers of the wholesale prices of all commodities or of
index numbers of the cost of living is, however, misleading because more
than half the expenditures in public schools is for salaries, as is shown
in Table 28.
TABLE 25. — TOTAL EXPENDITURES OF PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS,
1900-1930a
Year
Expenditures
Year
Expenditures
1900
1910
$214,965,000
426,250,000
1920
1930<>
$1,036,151,000
2,316,790,000
0 Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 452.
6 Figure supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
29 See a special study made by John McCracken of the American Council on Education
for estimates of decreasing school funds and maintained enrollments for 1931-1932.
[ 371 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 26. — TOTAL VALUE OF ALL PUBLIC SCHOOL PROPERTY AND VALUE PER PUPIL,
1900-1930°
Year
Value of all school prop-
erty (in thousands)
Number of pupils
enrolled in public elemen-
tary and secondary
schools (in thousands)
Value of school property
per pupil
1900
$ 550,069
15,503
$ 35 48
1910
1 091 008
17 814
61 24
1920
2 409 719
21 578
111 67
1930*
6,211,327
25,678
241 89
0 Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 452.
* Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
TABLE 27. — RECEIPTS OF UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES, 1900-1930°
Year
Receipts
Year
Receipts
1900
6$40 554 000
1920
c$i89 235 000
1910
"77,873,000
I930d
C567 618 000
0 Biennial Survey of Education, 1918-1920, p. 285.
6 Includes additions to endowments.
" Excludes additions to endowments.
* Figure supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
TABLE 28. — PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURES OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS, EXCLUDING
PAYMENTS OF BONDS, 1914-1930°
Year
General
control
Salaries of
teachers
Textbooks and
other instructional
supplies
Miscellaneous cur-
rent expenses
Outlays
1914
1916
1918
1920
2.2
2.4
3.3
3.5
58.3
56.9
55.2
57.3
2.1
2.0
S.O
4.1
20.8
22.5
23.0
20.3
16.5
16.2
15.5
14 8
1922
3 3
55 0
2 7
19 6
19
1924
3 0
52 6
2 8
20 5
21
1926
3 4
52 5
3 2
20 5
20
1928
3 5
53 4
2 5
23 0
17
19306
3 4
54 2
2 9
23 4
16
a Report of the Commissioner of Education, 1916, vol. II, p. 35; and 1917, vol. II, p. 82; Biennial Survey
of Education, 1916-1918, vol. Ill, p. 181; 1918-1920, p. 74; 1920-1922, vol. II, p. 57; 1922-1924, p. 375;
1924-1926, p. 604; and 1926-1928, p. 486.
* Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
Table 21 shows that salaries in public schools have increased greatly
in recent years. The changes in teachers' salaries from year to year are,
however, at rates which are very different from those exhibited by the
changes in the buying power of the dollar. Therefore, the teaching serv-
[ 372 1
EDUCATION
ices purchased by public schools cannot be estimated in terms of com-
modity values. Furthermore, the actual amounts appropriated or given
for the maintenance of schools and colleges represent very much more
nearly the intent of those who make the appropriations or gifts than do
figures corrected by the use of index numbers. In spite of the inadequacy
of a simple correction by the use of index numbers, Table 29 has been
prepared comparing the actual expenditures for public elementary and
secondary schools and the actual values of school property in 1900, 1910,
TABLE 29. — TOTAL EXPENDITURES AND VALUE OF ALL PROPERTY OF PUBLIC ELEMENTARY
AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 1900-1930
(In thousands of dollars, corrected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics index number of wholesale prices)
Index number of
Total expenditures
Value of all property
wholesale prices
Year
of all commod-
ities (1926 =
100.0)°
Actual amount1"
Corrected
amount
Actual amount6
Corrected
amount
1900
56.1
$ 214,965
$ 383,182
$ 550,069
$ 980,515
1910
70.4
426,250
605,469
1,091,008
1,549,727
1920
154.4
1,036,151
671,082
2,409,719
1,560.699
1930
86.3
'2,316,790
2,684,577
'6,211,327
7,197,366
« U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wholesale Prices, 1930, Bulletin no. 543, p. 38.
* Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 452.
« Figure supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
1920 and 1930 with these amounts corrected by the use of index numbers
of the wholesale prices of all commodities. This table removes all doubt
as to the great increase in school costs in recent years.
Not only is the aggregate expenditure for education very large but
the distribution of the burden of taxation and expenditure in different
school districts is so unequal as to make impossible adequate education
of many young people, especially those living in sparsely settled areas.30
Much of the inequality in educational support is traceable directly
to the small size of many school districts. Frequently a small district
includes only property of very low assessable value. A neighboring dis-
trict, on the other hand, may include an industrial plant or a railroad and
be amply able to support schools. Furthermore, the numbers of children
in neighboring districts are often very different. Some examples of the
inequalities in ability to raise school revenues may be cited from findings
of the Educational Finance Inquiry Commission. A table is presented by
this commission which shows that of 1,317 elementary school districts
in ten typical counties in Illinois, 352 had full assessed valuations per
30 For detailed statements of governmental expenditures for education, see Chaps.
XXV and XXVI; for philanthropic gifts to education, see Chap. XXIII.
f 373 I
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
child of school age of $4,900 or less while at the other extreme were six
districts which had valuations per child of $45,000 or more.31
Two devices have been adopted in the effort to equalize educational
opportunities. The first is the consolidation of districts and the erection
of central schools. This method has often been resisted on the ground
that transportation of pupils to a distance from their homes is expensive
and undesirable, but the advantages which come from the organization
of a large school are steadily tending to overcome these objections and
consolidation of districts is progressing in all parts of the country. In the
year 1929-1930, 1,014 consolidations took place. The total number of con-
solidated districts in the United States in 1930 was 16,232. The total
number of one-room schools is, however, still very large. In 1930 there
were 150,951 such schools.32
The second device adopted in order to produce equality of educa-
tional opportunities is the use of state funds to supplement local resources.
State funds are distributed in some states on a per pupil basis without
regard to other considerations. This method is crude and does not go
far toward correcting inequalities. A few states have adopted plans which
take account of the ability of districts to levy local taxes and of the effort
which the districts put forth, the state support being adjusted so as to
aid liberally districts which have little wealth, provided these districts
exert full effort within the limits of their assessable property. For example,
in New York State the law sets $1,500 a year as the minimum expenditure
for a one teacher school. The state supplies whatever is necessary to
make this amount available after the district has levied a four-mill tax
on the full value of property. In districts other than those maintaining
one teacher schools the revenues derived from a six-tenths mill tax are
supplemented far enough to provide $1,500 for each elementary school
teaching unit and $1,900 for each high school teaching unit. These dis-
tricts are, however, required to levy a five-mill tax for all purposes in
order to participate in state aid for education. Districts which fail to levy
a five-mill tax are penalized by the amount of their failure to meet the
five-mill condition.
In spite of the efforts which have been made in some states to achieve
equalization of educational opportunities, there is still very marked dis-
parity in the amounts expended for education in different parts of the
country. Some relevant facts are shown in Table 30. The final interpreta-
tion of the differences in the costs per pupil indicated in this table is
impossible without full knowledge of the differences in the cost of living
in different sections of the country.
31 Morrison, Henry C., The Financing of Public Schools in the State of Illinois, Publi-
cations of the Educational Finance Inquiry, New York, 1924, vol. IX, p. 46.
32 Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
[ 374 ]
EDUCATION
TABLE 80. — COSTS PER PUPIL IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND IN REGULAR AND VOCATIONAL
HIGH SCHOOLS IN TWELVE STATES, 1929-1930°
State
Costs per pupil in elemen-
tary school
Costs per pupil in regular
and vocational high schools
Current
expenses
Outlays
Current
expenses
Outlays
$ 26.72
103.74
84.94
38.50
66.40
98.32
75.81
106.03
105.19
35.08
72.07
76.65
$ 5.53
18.62
14.56
8.52
14.67
6.89
5.70
28.78
24.28
2.71
17.96
10.94
$171.88
147.46
96.19
113.97
117.54
127.83
178.89
187.22
80.70
125.37
154.42
$47.85
32.59
13.75
39.56
44.38
15.32
81.16
64.96
8.27
36.42
28.69
Nebraska
Nevada
Utah
0 Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education.
Congress made an appropriation in 1931 for a general survey of
educational finance to be conducted by the United States Office of Educa-
tion. It is safe to anticipate the findings of this survey far enough to
assert that the antiquated systems of taxation which now exist in most
of the states cannot carry the burdens of the expanding educational
program.33
Control of Private Educational Institutions. — Reference has been
made in earlier paragraphs to the fact that many of the institutions of
higher education are private in their control and in their financial support.
Not a few of the administrative problems which arise in private colleges
and universities result from the special interests and influence of donors,
individual and corporate. Individual donors are likely to be more inter-
ested in tangible and visible equipment than in intangibles such as the
quality of instruction. It is a well known fact that contributions for
buildings are more easily secured from individual donors than contribu-
tions for improvement of instruction.
Establishing foundations has become the custom in recent years among
individuals who have large amounts of money to give away. Certain
communities have also organized foundations as agencies for the collec-
tion and disbursement of funds. Foundations are among the largest con-
tributors to the support of colleges and universities. In general they are
more willing to support research and efforts to improve organization and
teaching than are individual donors. The influence of foundations has
33 Morrison, Henry C., School Revenue, University of Chicago Press, 1930, pp. 130-63.
[ 375 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
been very great in determining institutional policies because the founda-
tions have in many cases selected particular lines of work which they are
willing to support.34
Many of the private schools and colleges of the United States were
established by ecclesiastical bodies. The statistics regarding enrollments
in Catholic elementary and secondary schools supplied by the National
Catholic Welfare Conference for 1926 and 1928 are presented in Table
31 together with similar statistics for all private elementary and secondary
schools as reported by the United States Office of Education. When these
statistics are compared it is apparent that Catholic schools are by far the
most numerously attended private elementary and secondary schools in
this country.
So far as the other denominations are concerned, it may be said in
general that their contributions to elementary and secondary education
are negligible. In the field of higher education, on the other hand, their
contributions have been large. Their direct control, which was formerly
strong, has in recent years been steadily growing weaker. Colleges and
schools which were founded by Protestant churches are now for the
most part independent in their administration.
TABLE 31. — PUPILS ENROLLED IN CATHOLIC ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND SECONDARY
SCHOOLS0 AND IN ALL PRIVATE ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS6
AND PERCENT ENROLLMENTS IN CATHOLIC SCHOOLS ARE OF ENROLLMENTS IN ALL
PRIVATE SCHOOLS, 1926 AND 1928
Type of school
Number of pupils
Type of school
Number of pupils
1926
1928
1926
1928
Elementary schools:
Private
2,143,100
2,111,560
08.5
2,234,999
2,195,569
98.2
Secondary schools:
Private
295,625
204,815
69.3
341,158
225,845
66.2
Catholic
Catholic . .
Percent Catholic
Percent Catholic
a Directory of Catholic Colleges and Schools, 1930, National Catholic Welfare Conference, Washington, 1930,
pp. 98, 171.
» Biennial Survey of Education, 1924-1926, p. 614; 1926-1928, p. 496.
Control of Athletics. — The control of athletics is one administrative
problem confronting both secondary schools and colleges which is recog-
nized on all sides as at present wholly unsolved. The American people
are eager to witness athletic contests.35 The newspapers devote a great
deal of space to reports of such contests, to descriptions of participants,
and to comments, laudatory or otherwise, on all school authorities who
' 34 On the foundations, see Chap. XXIII.
35 See Chap. XVIII.
f 376 1
EDUCATION
come into contact with athletics. The graduates as a group seem to take
more interest in athletics than they do in other aspects of institutional
life. The students are stimulated to more enthusiasm by victories on the
athletic field than by any other happenings in the institution. Faculties,
overwhelmed by all these forces, find it difficult or impossible to keep ath-
letics within bounds. Perhaps worst of all, the income from public contests
is sufficient to encourage a number of pernicious types of extravagance.
In 1929 the Carnegie Foundation issued a report in which the facts
about college athletics are frankly stated. The president of the Founda-
tion, in a preface to the report, wrote in part as follows:
Intercollege athletics are highly competitive. Every college or university
longs for a winning team in its group. The coach is on the alert to bring the most
promising athletes in the secondary schools to his college team. A system of
recruiting and subsidizing has grown up, under which boys are offered pecuniary
and other inducements to enter a particular college. The system is demoralizing
and corrupt, alike for the boy who takes the money and for the agent who ar-
ranges it, and for the whole group of college and secondary school boys who
know about it ...
For many games the strict organization and the tendency to commercialize
the sport have taken the joy out of the game. In football, for example, great
numbers of boys do not play football, as in English schools and colleges, for the
fun of it. A few play intensely. The great body of students are onlookers.36
The publication of such an indictment may be thought of as evidence
that a reform in athletic management is at least contemplated. In the
meantime, the fact remains that the administration of athletics in
schools and colleges is badly out of control.
Control of Military Training. — Closely related to the problems of
athletics is the problem of military training. Such training is regarded
favorably in some quarters on the ground that it provides exacting drill
and through such drill contributes both to the physical well being of boys
and to the cultivation of an attitude of obedience to authority. Military
training is required by act of Congress to be given in all land grant col-
leges. For a time it was assumed that all students attending such colleges
were compelled by the Congressional legislation to take military training.
The Secretary of the United States Department of the Interior, who is
responsible for the administration of the federal grants to land grant
colleges, has ruled that the requirements are adequately met if military
training is offered as an elective. In many private schools for boys military
organization prevails throughout the institution. In certain private col-
leges and in public high schools in a number of the large cities military
training is offered as an elective. Officers from the regular army or retired
officers administer the courses.
36 Pritchett, Henry S., in his preface to American College Athletics, Bulletin Number
Twenty-three, Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, New York, 1929,
pp. xiv-xv.
[ 377 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The officers of the army and some educators are in favor of the
extensive use of schools as means of preparing for military emergencies.
In general, however, military training is not regarded by educators as
a satisfactory substitute for physical education or as a desirable element
of the high school or college curriculum. In recent years the trend has
been in the direction of reduction of military training in educational
institutions.
IV. SCIENTIFIC STUDIES OF EDUCATION
The most hopeful aspect of the administration of schools and colleges
in the United States is that there is a growing tendency to guide all kinds
of educational activities by carefully conducted analyses and by measure-
ments of results. It has been pointed out a number of times in this chapter
that American educational institutions enjoy great freedom because of
their local control and that this freedom has led to much experimentation.
Experimentation would undoubtedly have produced reforms even if
there had never been any efforts to make systematic scientific studies
of the results of the various plans of education adopted in different com-
munities. Scientific studies have, however, accelerated reforms and
directed their course.
The earliest efforts to cultivate a science of education in this country
were made in the period when a vigorous expansion of the American
educational system began, the decade 1880-1890. During that decade
the so-called "child study movement" was inaugurated. It was an
offshoot of the movement which transformed psychology from a purely
philosophical discipline into an experimental science. Although the
child study movement has not persisted in its original form, the use
of psychological methods has been extended, and measurements of general
intelligence and analyses of the learning process have supplied guidance
for many recent improvements in education.
Exact measurements of the achievements of pupils were first made
in the late nineties and the early years of the present century. They
were made by means of tests of the ability of pupils in various school
systems to spell and to solve problems in arithmetic. Comparisons of
the scores made on these tests by schools following different methods
of teaching were so revealing that since 1900 much energy has been de-
voted to the extension of the testing movement and to the establishment
of " standard scores " through the use of the same tests with great numbers
of pupils.
The development of devices for comparing school results led to the
inauguration of school surveys. As early as 1911 certain school systems,
realizing the advantage of securing expert advice in the solution of
their problems, employed outside educators of recognized standing to
[ 378 ]
EDUCATION
observe the operations of their schools and make recommendations for
possible improvements.37 The early surveys thus undertaken were no
doubt stimulated in some measure by the fact that communities were
surveying many of their activities other than education, such as housing
and regulation of sanitary conditions.
The educational survey movement gradually gained momentum. The
Russell Sage Foundation and the General Education Board sponsored a
number of surveys, and school systems which found their financial and
administrative problems growing serious sponsored others. The federal
Office of Education was early drawn into the movement. Where state
systems of education were involved there was a natural tendency to seek
the aid of an impartial national agency. Especially where state insti-
tutions of higher education were to be surveyed it became necessary to
secure an agency with as high prestige as possible. Thus the Office of
Education has come to be one of the leading agencies for general surveys.
In 1926 the Office of Education undertook, with financial support derived
from private sources, a general survey of the Negro colleges of the
country. In 1927, at the urgent request of the land grant colleges and
universities, the Office of Education asked Congress for an appropria-
tion with which to carry on a study of those institutions. Congress made
the appropriation and the report of the study was published in 1930.
At the present time the Office of Education is conducting three national
surveys, one of secondary education, one of teacher training and one of
school finance. For each of these surveys Congress made a substantial
special appropriation.
In addition to publicly supported educational surveys there are
important examples of privately financed surveys of private educa-
tional institutions. A number of denominational boards of education
are making surveys of their dependent institutions and a number of in-
dividual colleges and universities are conducting surveys of their in-
ternal organizations and operations.
Public school systems and state departments of education have
tended to establish permanent agencies for the scientific study of their
problems. These permanent agencies, variously known as bureaus of refer-
ence and statistics, bureaus of tests and measurements, and bureaus or
departments of research, are outgrowths of the survey movement. They
have increased rapidly in number in recent years. The educational
directory for 1932 published by the United States Office of Education
lists the names of 182 directors of departments or divisions of research.
It is true that boards of education have in some cases been in doubt as
37 Harms, Paul H., Report on the Programme of Studies in the Public Schools of Montclair,
New Jersey, with Some Comments on the School Plant and Its Equipment and on the Teaching,
Montclair, N. J., 1911. See also Moore, E. C., Report of the Examination of the School System
of East Orange, New Jersey, Board of Education, East Orange, New Jersey, 1912.
f 379 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
to the functions of such departments or divisions and as to the advisability
of establishing them, but there can be little question that the school
systems of the country and the state departments of education will
increasingly be supplied with scientific experts as permanent members
of their staffs.
The chief agencies undertaking scientific work in education have
been the universities. They entered this field through their efforts
to train teachers for the secondary schools. At first they offered courses
in the history of education and the theory of teaching. Later they con-
tributed to the development of methods of measuring results, and, after
these methods had been perfected, they applied them to the solution of
a wide range of problems. Teachers College, Columbia University, was
the first institution to enter vigorously on the task of promoting scientific
studies in education. After that institution performed its pioneering
work, strong centers were developed at various state and private
universities.
These university centers have been reinforced by the foundations,
which continue direct participation in surveys to some extent and also
contribute to the support of the scientific work of institutions and in-
dividuals. The foundations which have been active in promoting educa-
tional research are the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Carnegie
Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, the General Education
Board, the Julius Rosenwald Fund, the Commonwealth Fund and a
number of other foundations.
General organizations of educators and educational institutions
have contributed in recent years to the science of education. Among
these, the most active are the Division of Research of the National
Education Association, the National Society for the Study of Education,
the American Educational Research Association and the American
Council on Education. To this list of organizations should be added,
as a public agency of the first importance, the United States Office of
Education.
The existence of these agencies assures the continuance of scientific
studies of educational problems. The highly significant contributions
to educational reorganization which have been made in recent years by
tests and laboratory studies have demonstrated beyond question the
possibility and the desirability of ultimately developing a complete
science of education.
One of the most promising developments in the scientific studies of
education has been the extensive investigation of the learning process in
animals and human beings. It has been found that the rate and character
of learning at different levels of intelligence, at different stages of maturity
and in different spheres of experience vary greatly and must be under-
[ 380 1
EDUCATION
stood if successful methods of teaching are to be devised. It has been
demonstrated that individuals of the same age differ markedly in mental
capacity, in tastes and in achievement, and that it is possible to determine
with precision the extent and nature of these differences. This demonstra-
tion has led to the abandonment of the uniform treatment of pupils
which was formerly common in schools and has resulted in the develop-
ment of specific methods of dealing with individuals. It has resulted in
the importation into the curriculum of new and varying contents suited
to pupils of various types. The administration of schools has been regu-
lated in increasing measure by standards determined by statistical
studies dealing with such matters as promotion of pupils, distribution of
expenditures in the school budget, class size, and requirements of material
equipment. In short, scientific investigations have produced the basis
for recent reforms in methods of teaching, organization of the curriculum
and administration of schools.
[ 381
CHAPTER VIII
CHANGING SOCIAL ATTITUDES AND INTERESTS
BY HORNELL HART
THE preceding chapters have been largely concerned with the more
tangible aspects of social change. For a proper evaluation and inter-
pretation of the changes which have occurred in these fields it is
necessary to have some knowledge of what has taken place in the field of
ideas — the shifts in public opinions and interests.1 It is the purpose of the
present chapter to analyze as objectively as possible the most readily
accessible indexes of the amount of discussion on certain important topics,
and of approving or disapproving opinions expressed in connection with
some of the more basic issues. Attitudes and opinions are, of course,
subjective and hence not readily susceptible of exact measurement. For
this reason it is essential to discuss in some detail the methods which were
used in making this analysis and to warn the reader of the possibilities of
error in interpreting the data.
In thus studying trends in discussion and opinion, the volumes of
leading periodicals may well be regarded in much the way in which a
geologist looks at the strata of the earth's crust. Here are precipitated
layers of evidence about the intellectual and emotional life of past years.
In order to build up and hold circulation, the editors of successful period-
icals must (among other things) discover and express attitudes acceptable
to their readers. The problem here in hand, therefore, is to approach these
strata of opinion-sediment in the impartial and systematic spirit of
science, and to reconstruct the essential aspects of the life which they
express, as the paleontologist reconstructs the essential characteristics
of extinct plants and animals from evidences buried in past ages in the
sediment of streams, swamps and oceans.
The chapter is based almost entirely upon statistical analyses of
interests and opinions expressed in leading general magazines, supple-
mented by analyses of certain book and newspaper indexes. This proce-
dure has been followed because the investigator in charge, after a general
review of the field, came to the conclusion that no other sources fulfil the
necessary requirements of (1) providing materials comparable over a
period of 25 or 30 years, (2) representing fairly comprehensively the
thinking of leading sections of the American people and (3) being suffi-
ciently compact and accessible to render the task of analysis feasible.
1 For a brief discussion of the trend in political ideas, see Chap. XXIX.
[ 382 1
ATTITUDES
The volume of attention devoted to various social problems and
interests in leading magazines at various dates during the period 1905 to
1932 has been determined primarily by analysis of the proportionate
numbers of articles indexed under topics in the Reader's Guide to Periodical
Literature. On certain religious and family topics this has been supple-
mented by a similar analysis of books indexed in the U. S. Catalog and of
articles in the New York Times Index. Changes in the relative reported
circulations of certain classes of periodicals have also been considered as
an index of trends in public interests.
On topics like religion, divorce, birth control, prohibition and disarma-
ment, not only the volume of attention but also the degree of endorsement
or opposition is of central interest in this study. Indicators of approval
and disapproval have accordingly been tabulated systematically from
representative samples of articles on these topics. To insure reliability
the findings of different investigators have been checked against each
other and the results from various independent sets of samples have
been compared
Attitudes reflected in fiction have been studied from data collected
by William B. Mills and Francis L. McGarraghy in mass circulation
and all-story magazines, and from data recorded by Bryn Mawr students
in connection with short stories and moving pictures.2
2 Some technical details of the methods referred to above may be summarized briefly
as follows. On using the Reader s Guide, a list of key words on the subject to be investigated
was first written down. For example, in studying changes in the volume of discussion about
disarmament, one might start with the words "disarmament," "militarism," "pacifism"
and "preparedness." Each of these words would be looked up in all of the volumes of the
Guide, and all cross references noted down. These in turn would be looked up in all of the
volumes, and cross references to them would be added. The process would be continued
until all of the pertinent topics, under which articles bearing on the subject in hand had
been indexed since 1905, had been listed. The more irrelevant of the cross reference terms
would then be eliminated. The number of entries under each term in each volume of the
Guide would be counted. This involved a definition of the term "entry." In the main tables
of this study (except where otherwise noted) any series of articles in a single magazine was
counted as one entry. Articles reprinted or abstracted in other magazines than that in
which they first appeared were counted only once.
In order to insure that the Guide presented a comparable sample of magazines through-
out the period covered, it was necessary to eliminate from consideration magazines which
were indexed during part but not all of the period. This required the elimination of the
following 54 periodicals. American Catholic Quarterly Review, American Economic
Review, American Home, American Homes and Gardens, American Journal of Semitic
Languages, American Journal of Theology, American Political Science Review, Asia,
Astrophysical Journal, Biblical World, Bibliotheca Sacra, Blackwood's Edinburgh Maga-
zine, Botanical Gazette, Bulletin of The Pan-American Union, Cassier's Magazine,
Christian Century, Classical Journal, Classical Philology, Cosmopolitan, Country Life,
Current Opinion, Etude, Farmer's Bulletin (U. S. Department of Agriculture), Garden
Magazine and Home Builder, Garden Magazine, Harper's Bazaar, Hibbert Journal, House
and Garden, International Conciliation, International Journal of Ethics, Johns Hopikns
Studies in Historical and Political Science, Journal of Geology, Libraries, Literary Digest,
Modern Philology, Munsey's Magazine, National Education Association — Journal of
Proceedings and Addresses, National Conference of Social Work — Proceedings, National
[ 383 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
To what extent does magazine opinion express social attitudes ? Study
of the problem has indicated that public opinion is highly diversified.
Important differences in social attitudes undoubtedly exist between
eastern and western, northern and southern, urban and rural areas. While
the sources available for this study are periodicals which circulate in all
these areas, they are published in a few great cities and particularly in
Geographic Magazine, National Republican, Nature, Pan-American Magazine, Photo-Era
Magazine, Pictorial Review, Poet-Lore, Poetry, Popular Mechanics Magazine, Public
Libraries, Publisher's Weekly, Queen's Quarterly, Saturday Evening Post, Travel, Uni-
versity of Chicago Magazine, Yale Review.
After the number of entries from magazines not on the excluded list had been counted,
the various topics were grouped so as to bring together synonymous or closely allied terms.
The totals of the entries for these groups were then found. In order to reduce these absolute
figures to proportions of the total number of entries in the Guide, it was necessary to divide
them by estimated totals of entries for each volume. The estimates for the respective
volumes are as follows: 1905-1909, 93,790; 1910-1914, 103,680; 1915-1918, 76,640; 1919-
1921, 61,200; 1922-1924, 61,470; 1925-1928, 86,800; 1929-1930, 38,650; 1930-1931, 27,620.
The absolute number of entries represented in any of the Reader's Guide tables can be found
by multiplying the appropriate number of "articles per thousand" by the number of
thousand entries in that volume as given above.
The question has been raised whether, by thus using articles per thousand as an index,
the marked growth of one topic or group of topics would not cause a relative decline in the
space given to other topics. The most pertinent example might be the possible effects of
the World War in reducing the space given to other subjects in magazines. The variety and
bulk of subject matter indexed, however, is so huge that this has not been of any importance
as far as the writer can discover. Table 33 presents data by means of which this conclusion
may be checked.
A method similar to that just described was used to ascertain changes in the number of
books published on religious subjects per thousand non-fiction books. The same company
which publishes the Reader's Guide issues the U. S. Catalog of books in print at certain dates,
with supplements cumulated at intervals. In connection with this Catalog, the same method
of working up lists of key words and synonyms has been employed. Only books listed with
a publication date in the period considered and in the volumes used are counted. The
number of all books listed by subjects, and having the publication dates being considered
was estimated for each volume used as follows: 1903-1905, 19,900; 1912-1917, 99,700;
1918-1921, 42,500; 1921-1924, 42,400; 1925-1926, 25,000; 1930, 12,900; 1931, 11,700.
In the development of the above methods for measuring changes in the amounts of
attention devoted to various interests in periodicals and books, the advice and cooperation
of James T. Ruby of the Library of Congress has been invaluable. For a year Mr.
Ruby acted as the author's research associate and to his ingenuity and energy many of the
developments of research technique employed in this study are to be ascribed. Mrs. James
Ruby, under the direction of the writer, made an extensive experiment in analysis of atti-
tudes reflected in stage plays, weighting the attitudes found by the number of performances
accorded the respective plays. The tentative results obtained seemed to be quite in line
with those found by the other methods employed in this chapter, but the difficulties of
eliminating subjective judgments and the incomplete character of the data made it inad-
visable to include the material here. This field of research has considerable promise, how-
ever, and it is to be hoped that other investigators will work in it. Mrs. Ruby used Burns
Mantle's annual summary of Best Plays. A more complete source would be the "Theater
Collection" of the New York Public Library.
Another method of measuring the volume of attention given to various interests has
been the systematic study of attitude indicators of defined types discoverable in repre-
sentative issues of seven leading periodicals, each having circulations between 1,500,000
[ 384 1
ATTITUDES
New York City. How far the point of origin has influence upon the
material selected for publication is difficult to say.
Moreover, printed opinion is but one kind of opinion. Thoroughly to
analyze the matter one would have to consider drifts in spoken opinion.
And spoken opinion would have to be broken down into such divisions as
casual conversation, lectures, debates, radio broadcasts and the like.
Obviously, this field is too extensive and elusive to be entered into here.
Still less can this chapter evaluate those latent but powerful attitudes
that operate subtly to influence all opinion trends. These may lie more or
less dormant until a challenging episode brings them into action and
then they may determine the decision of the group.
Even printed expressions of opinion are highly diversified. Books,
magazines and newspapers each fall into strata according to the intel-
lectual levels to which they appeal. For instance an analysis of 44 repre-
sentative newspapers in 1929 (published in the New Republic, October 8,
1930, vol. 64, pp. 201-204) showed that in the amounts of space given to
news of social importance, as contrasted with sensational presentations of
crime and sex, they ranged widely. At one extreme were papers like the
United States Daily, the Christian Science Monitor and the New York
Times; at the other the tabloids and similar sensation purveyors.
As to magazines, scientific and technical periodicals form one general
group with circulations usually ranging below ten thousand. General
periodicals like the Atlantic Monthly, the Forum, the Nation and the
Outlook, presenting articles likely to appeal to college graduates and
professional groups, reach a somewhat wider audience, but still measure
and 3,000,000 in 1930. With the assistance of two investigators, William B. Mills and
Francis L. McGarraghy, parallel researches were made by this method. Their findings on
the more important topics were fairly consistent with each other and with the results
obtained in other lines of investigation.
Attitudes reflected in fiction were also analyzed. With few exceptions, short stories
and moving pictures are found to present certain characters with whom the reader or
spectator is expected to sympathize and other characters against whom he is expected to
feel dislike or antagonism. The former are the heroes and heroines; the latter are the
villians and villainnesses. It is true that these distinctions cannot always be made in
humorous stories, mystery tales and fiction of the ultra-sophisticated type. Moreover, in a
few stories of the highest literary quality, the author takes a detached attitude and presents
all his characters with sympathy and understanding. But in the great bulk of fiction, there
is not much difficulty about determining with which characters the reader is expected to
identify himself at given stages in the story and which he is expected to dislike.
Just as illustrators (of stories laid in contemporary times) draw the characters in the
styles of the day, so the authors dress the personalities of their stories in the attitudes of
the day. In 1905 it would have been impossible to have made a heroine of the post-war
flapper; today the sentimental and inhibited heroine of 1905 would fail to command the
sympathy and understanding necessary to the processes of identification on which fictional
interest so largely depends. Because these reflections of attitudes through short story
characters are less overt and consciously insisted on than opinions expressed in articles,
they have peculiar advantages in throwing light upon the values which, at various periods,
have commanded the enthusiasm and the sympathy of the great reading public.
[ 385 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
their circulations only in tens of thousands. (For the sake of brevity this
group will frequently be referred to hereinafter as "intellectual" maga-
zines.) The Saturday Evening Post, Collier's, the Literary Digest and the
American have extended their appeal to a wider group and each has a
circulation running over a million. (This group will be referred to as the
"mass circulation" magazines.) Approximately comparable in circulation
and in intellectual caliber are the leading women's magazines. Magazines
of these two groups are of interest to persons with a high school education
as well as to college graduates. Less ambitious in their intellectual require-
ments are the periodicals devoting themselves to sensational fiction,
"confessions," motion picture gossip and the like. Periodicals indexed
in the Reader's Guide come largely from the groups appealing to the
better educated sections of the population and to that extent can hardly
be regarded as reflecting the mind of America as a whole.
Even for the selected periodicals analyzed, the question must be faced
whether the articles printed express truly the actual or even the incipient
attitudes of their readers. The content of most magazines is determined
by a careful calculation of reader reaction, but other forces also are at work
in determining what shall be printed. It has frequently been charged that
the contents of newspapers and magazines are determined to a greater
or lesser extent by the machinations of public relations counsels and
pressure groups. Furthermore there are such matters as the influence of
advertisers and the whole complex of social and editorial taboos, the force
of which varies from magazine office to magazine office.
Another signal for caution in interpreting these data is the fact that
moving pictures have been found to reflect attitudes widely at variance
with those indicated in the mass circulation and all-story magazines, in
matters like divorce, sex morals and alcoholism. The movies must depend
on much the same public served by these magazines; yet they seem to
interpret popular interests in a way markedly less in harmony with
traditional morals.
Finally it may be pointed out that discussion seems to be most intense
at two periods in the life of a social institution. The first period of intensity
comes when an institution is under construction or is a candidate for
adoption; the second when it is undergoing remodeling or demolition. A
new invention may be intensely discussed while it is being introduced but
it is apt merely to be taken for granted after it has been fully incorporated
into the social fabric. A satisfactory social institution will receive far
less attention in periodicals than an institution which is under attack.
Certain attitudes moreover, such as those related to sex freedom, spirit-
ualism, and prohibition, seem to develop more or less extensively in
particular sections of the public before they break out in periodical
discussions. And long after a given opinion or attitude or institution has
[ 386 ]
ATTITUDES
ceased to have sufficient novelty to command magazine space it may go
on growing in influence and power.
Making all due allowances for reservations such as those outlined
above, it will be found that the broad conclusions presented in this
chapter have both reliability and validity. The reliability of the results
is indicated by the fact that the same general trends in discussion and
opinion appear in a number of independent sources at the same time. The
weakened grip of traditional Christianity upon educated opinion in the
United States has been found reflected in general "intellectual" period-
icals, in scholarly journals, in the number of religious books published, in
declining relative circulations of religious journals and in the attitudes
reflected in mass circulation magazines. Evidence of the recent rebellion
against authoritative monogamistic mores has been found not only in
magazine articles, but in short stories, moving pictures and stage plays.
The internal consistency of the findings indicates that the indexes
derived are measuring consistently whatever they measure.
But is what they measure a true indication of changing public atti-
tudes? At one point it has been possible to obtain a striking answer to
this question. Certain early results of the study, bearing upon prohibition
sentiment, were proved to be in accord with attitude changes reflected
later in the Literary Digest poll and in the planks adopted by the Republi-
can and Democratic parties. On September 21, 1931, the writer submitted
to the President's Research Committee on Social Trends a preliminary
report, based on analyses of representative magazines, made under his
direction by William B. Mills. That report showed that, on a scale where
complete approval is represented by 1.00 and complete disapproval by
— 1.00, the indexes of approval of prohibition were as follows: 1915, 0.62;
1920, 0.01; 1930, —0.25. After intensive supplementary research by the
writer, a revised report was submitted on February 18, 1932, including
the following estimate of "wet" sentiment in units of articles per thou-
sand indexed in the Reader's Guide:
Year Wet sentiment index Year Wet sentiment index
1916 0.89 1929 4.44
1920 0.72 1931 3.16
1925 1.78
Conclusion. — In view of the immense complexity of the problem of
attitude measurement, it has been deemed wise merely to present sig-
nificant data about the relative amounts of attention devoted to certain
selected topics, accompanied by an attempt to analyze the frequency with
which favorable and unfavorable opinion indicators occur. It must be
emphasized that the social significance of the trends and fluctuations
revealed is a matter which is left for the reader to determine.
[ 387 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
I. THE RISE OF SCIENCE IN AMERICAN THINKING
A correlation between the education of the readers and the various
types of magazines has already been mentioned. This matter may now
be presented with a factual background.
CIRCULATIONS A
eo.ooo.ooo
NO ENROLLMENTS
to.ooo.ooo
10,000.000
^^
^<l^-'
^^
Mogoz
ne Circulation^/
~^~
e, 000,000
«, 000,000
4, OOO.OOO
t, 000,000
1,000.000
/
^X^
^
.x^
"5^"
x
High School Enn
illment^X*
S'
•00,000
•00,000
4OO.OOO
^^^"*"
-**^—
^ » ^^
f*
****
,+
^»
^**~
/
^^"
^rf.**
/ __-.
--'^^^
^College Enrol Im
nt
1690 I9OO 1910 I92O !93O
FIG. 1. — Rate of increase in magazine circulations compared with the increase in high
school and college enrollments, 1890-1931.
High School and College Enrollments in Relation to Periodical Cir-
culations.— A six-fold increase in periodical circulations from 1900 to
1930 (shown in Table 1) corresponds approximately with the rates of
increase in the numbers of high school and college students in the United
Year
Enrollments in —
Year
Enrollments in —
Public high
schools
Colleges0
Public high
schools
Colleges"
1890
202,963
519,251
915,061
173,691
224,284
832,696
1920
62,199,389
'4,399,422
521,754
'1,033,022
1900
1930
1910
a Figures include students in preparatory, graduate and professional departments, Biennial Surrey of
Education, op. tit., 1926-1928 p. 698.
6 Ibid., 1918-1920, p. 48.
e Data supplied by the U. S. Office of Education; figure on colleges includes students in normal schools and
teachers' colleges.
[ 388 ]
ATTITUDES
States. As reported by the United States Office of Education, these
enrollments have been as shown on page 388. 3 When these data are
plotted on a semi-logarithmic scale, as in Figure 1 it is seen that the
increases in magazine circulation shown in Table 1 have been at approxi-
mately the same rates as the increases in the number of persons receiving
secondary and higher education.
TABLE 1. — REPORTED CIRCULATION OF SPECIFIED GROUPS OF PERIODICALS, 1900-1930"
(In this table and in all others where italic figures are used the purpose is to indicate peak years)
Circulation (in thousands)
renoaicais
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
Popular scientific
National Geographic
Women's magazines
57
2
3,037
1,925
262
27
261
132
4
6,240
3,119
454
12
276
392
70
9,825
4,176
585
39
371
580
400
13,706
4,994
640
47
347
879
743
12,701
6,951
887
40
354
1,186
983
15,050
8,255
1,227
65
298
1,208
1,041
15,889
8,962
51,259
65
285
1,262
1,126
16,585
9,078
*1,274
66
288
1,325
1,184
17,531
9,687
b 1,281
65
278
1,307
1,245
18,499
9,964
&1.278
65
281
1,243
1,300
18,676
10,552
1,255
64
276
News and opinion maga-
Business and industrial . . .
Social science
Protestant religious*
Total
5,571
10,237
15,458
20,714
22,555
27,064
28,709
29,679
31,351
32,639
33,366
a From N. W. Ayer and Son's Directory of Newspapers and Periodicals.
* Estimated.
e No complete circulation figures for Catholic religious journals for the period 1900 to 1930 are available.
Discussion of Education in General Periodicals Has Doubled in 25
Years. — A natural reflection of the rising popularity of education is the
increased volume of its discussion. The volume of discussion devoted to
certain aspects of the subject in proportion to other topics in periodicals
in the Reader's Guide is summarized in Table 2. For about half of the
topics, tabulations for the 1930—1931 volume have been made. These
figures indicate a slight but hardly significant increase in educational
discussion in Reader's Guide periodicals between 1929 and 1931. The
general peak for educational discussion in these periodicals is clearly in
the 1925-1928 period. All of the sub-topics except one have their high
points either in that period or those immediately adjacent. The exception
is "vocational education," which covers such headings as "manual
training," "vocational guidance and training," "industrial education,"
"agricultural education," and so on. A comparison between Table 2 and
Table 3 in this particular is striking. General science and applied science
both had their peaks of discussion in the same period when education
reached its discussion peak; pure science also showed a secondary peak
at that time.
3 U. S. Office of Education, Biennial Survey of Education, 1926-1928, p. 974.
[ 389 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 2. — CHANGING RATIO OF EDUCATIONAL DISCUSSION, 1905-1930
(Measured by the ratio of articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
Total
29 67
29 43
38.81
31.41
45.53
54.93
48.17
0 21
0 62
2 90
1 68
2 77
3 47
3 89
1 36
1 65
1 18
1 83
3 13
3 05
2 45
2 26
2 71
2.83
2 64
3 90
3.59
2.74
History of education, bibliographies, etc
.22
.24
.41
.16
.40
.25
.67
Normal schools
.19
.27
.23
.21
.35
.31
.39
Junior high schools
.00
.01
.13
.39
.61
.56
.44
Rural schools
.35
.87
1.11
.98
1.27
.91
.72
Summer schools
.19
.20
.30
.11
.28
.73
.80
22
23
19
11
48
63
.47
20
58
1.09
1 37
1 54
2.48
1.84
Vocational education
4.24
5.16
8.75
5.75
6.18
7.43
6.59
Schools for the handicapped and abnormal
.58
.46
.57
.70
1.60
1.18
1.00
School attendance
.45
.28
.44
.26
.32
.35
.49
59
57
21
31
55
61
31
College students and their activities.
2 81
2 47
2 33
1 18
2 46
3 65
3.39
2 24
1 97
1 28
1 21
1 73
3 04
1.96
00
00
00
00
32
.21
.62
Administrative and business aspects
1.73
2.44
4.54
3.46
5.93
6.20
5.52
Schools and education : general and miscellaneous
aspects
12.33
8.70
10.32
9.06
11.71
16.33
13.88
The most significant fact shown by Table 2 is, however, not the rela-
tively small relapse after the peak, but the fact that the proportional
amount of educational discussion in these general periodicals almost
doubled between 1912 and 1926. Intensification of general interest in
education appears to have been one of the major trends in social attitudes
during the past quarter-century. It is significant that the trend correlates
with the trend of magazine circulation and, presumably, of magazine
reading.
Circulation Data Show Losses by Religious and Gains by Scientific
Periodicals. — The most fundamental change in the intellectual life of the
United States reflected in the data covered by this study is the apparent
shift from Biblical authority and religious sanctions to scientific and
factual authority and sanctions. This is made plain by several kinds of
data. First are the reported circulations of various types of periodicals,
summarized in Table 1 . In each of the classes of periodicals covered in the
table only those journals are included for which fairly complete circulation
reports are available in N. W. Ayer and Son's Directory of Newspapers and
Periodicals. The numbers of periodicals involved for the respective groups
are as follows: popular scientific, 6; women's, 24; news and opinion, 24;
[ 390 1
ATTITUDES
business and industrial, 78; social science, 13; and religious, 7. The shift of
emphasis from religion to science is shown by comparing the percentages
of the total circulations (based upon figures in Table 1) in selected years as
follows :
Percentage
i ear
Popular scientific
Protestant religious
1900
1.02
4.69
1925
4 39
I 10
1930
S 73
83
While popular scientific periodicals increased their proportion of the
total circulation about four times, the circulation of Protestant religious
PERCENTAGE
5
\+—Re igious
\
\
Popu/or Scientific
FIG. 2. — Percentages religious and scientific in the total circulations of representative
periodical groups, 1900-1930.
periodicals decreased to about one-sixth of what it was in 1900. The
comparative trends throughout the period are shown in Figure 2.4
4 Circulation data from the early volumes of Ayer's Directory must be interpreted with
caution. The data for 1930 consist almost entirely of sworn statements certified by the Audit
Bureau of Circulations, but in 1900 almost all of the reported circulations were mere un-
sworn estimates provided by the publishers. Persons familiar with the subject have sug-
gested that in order to approximate the true circulations at the earlier dates, the reported
[ 391 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The number of religious periodicals included in Table 1 is relatively
small, but supplementary investigations along somewhat different lines
confirm the trend. In the cities of New York, Philadelphia, Boston and
Chicago, 114 periodicals with circulations of over 50,000 were published in
1900, having a total circulation of 19,480,000. Of this circulation 23.7 was
credited to religious magazines. In 1930 the corresponding percentage was
4.4, representing a drop to less than one-fifth of the proportion at the
start of the century. This corresponds closely with the drop shown in
Table I.5
"Pure" Versus Applied Science. — Coming to closer grips with the
matter of science, it is necessary to discriminate somewhat arbitrarily
between the discussions of "pure" science or the systematic development
or organized knowledge pursued regardless of its immediate utility and
those of applied science or the use of scientific methods and results to
improve standards of living and develop such mechanical devices as
moving pictures, airplanes and the radio. The line cannot, of course, be
drawn with any certainty or rigidity but the data in Table 3 offer a
suggestive contrast on this basis. These data were secured (as explained
in a footnote earlier in this chapter) by counting the number of articles on
the topics listed (including closely related subjects) as indexed in the
various bound volumes of the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature and
dividing by the estimated number of thousands of entries on all subjects.
Certain periodicals were excluded in order to insure comparability
between the volumes.
The first group in the table has to do with science in general. It reached
its peak about 1928 and then showed a definite decline as did the circula-
tions of scientific magazines dealt with in Table 1. Indeed each of the
first three subgroups in Table 3 shows a decline after 1928.
The second group isolates the subjects which most nearly approach
pure scientific interests. This group, as a whole, had its peak in 1905-1099
estimates should be divided by an average exaggeration factor of 1.5. Suppose that the
publishers of the various types of periodicals all exaggerated to about the same degree in
1900, and have all alike been forced closer to the truth in 1930. If exaggerations of that
type were eliminated the only effect on the figures in Table 1 would be to increase some-
what the apparent rates of circulation growth, and the percentages in a given year would
remain unaltered. Only if the religious circulations were more exaggerated in 1900 than
the circulations of other groups, or the scientific circulations less exaggerated, would the
conclusions graphed in Figure 2 be counteracted. In order to make out that the contrast
there shown was due to false reports of circulations, it would be necessary to assume that
the exaggeration factor used by the religious periodicals in 1900 was 20 times as great as
that employed by the scientific periodicals, but that in 1930 they were equally reliable.
6 A more elaborate study along somewhat these same lines indicates that while Protes-
tant religious periodicals decreased 24 percent in circulation from 1900 to 1930 and while
Jewish periodicals decreased 68 percent, Catholic periodicals increased 161 percent. In
this case all periodicals with reported circulations at each date were included. It may be
that Catholic periodicals have, since 1900, adopted a policy of making fuller returns to
Ayer's.
[ 392 ]
ATTITUDES
and sank after the war to levels between one-half and two-thirds as high.
The drops in theoretical electricity and in laboratory psychology are
particularly striking when compared with radio and mental tests.
TABLE 3. — TRENDS IN APPLIED AND PURE SCIENCE, 1905-1930°
(Measured by the ratio of particular topics to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles by topic per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
Science
1.26
1.41
1.83
0.93
1.43
1.85
1.92
31
47
82
86
1 09
92
68
Total, general . .
1.57
1.88
2.65
1 79
2.52
IS 77
2 60
Anthropology
Astronomy
.27
.77
.24
.52
.26
.23
.28
.24
.20
.21
.W
.30
.23
.26
Botany
.71
.46
.60
.46
.52
.76
.52
65
52
39
28
51
42
20
Electricity (theoretical and technical aspects) . . .
Ethnology ... . .
4.57
.40
3.81
.41
3.18
.13
2.74
.05
2.78
.08
2.81
.22
2.44
.08
Geology
Mathematics
Paleontology
Physics
.87
.58
.73
.66
.64
.74
.73
.65
.40
.80
.45
.21
.33
.56
.36
.23
.49
.43
.20
.29
.68
.48
.73
.35
.97
.36
.39
.65
£ 07
99
54
44
57
.63
52
41
70
51
29
.29
.46
.28
Other pure science titles
.06
.09
.23
.41
.44
.60
.39
Total, pure science
IS. 75
10.50
7.93
6.67
7.01
8.86
7.29
Educational research and experimentation
.21
14
.62
19
2.90
19
1.68
11
2.77
15
3.47
35
3.89
.28
00
24
81
1 90
2.94
1.98
.96
Other applications of psychology
Industrial research
U. S. Bureau of Standards
Agricultural research
.35
.03
.03
.06
.18
.03
.09
.04
.27
.74
.11
.08
.08
.64
.20
.08
.28
.44
.15
.17
.48
.46
.16
.SO
.78
.41
.05
.10
Medical research
.06
.32
.11
.14
.28
.46
.26
88
1 71
5 21
4 83
7.18
7.56
6.73
Radio
1 77
1.22
1.17
.95
9.13
10.53
9.26
Other commercial applications of electricity
Automobiles
9.11
4.73
6.32
6.76
4.66
7.50
4.51
6.47
3.52
4.01
4.49
4.41
3.90
4.53
4 68
10 06
7 54
8 35
2 85
5.96
7.21
33
1 73
3 63
3 15
3.09
4.12
5.66
Scientific management, efficiency, etc
1.84
2.88
5.56
5.88
3.88
2.78
2.36
Total, commercial applications
22.46
28.97
30.06
29.31
26.48
32.29
32.92
0 From the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature. The time intervals employed in this and similar tables
conform to the periods covered by the respective volumes of the Guide.
The third group consists of the available topics which most clearly
involve direct applications of specific scientific research. In contrast with
[ 393 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the "pure science" group, these increased more than seven-fold between
1905-1909 and 1925-1928.
The fourth group covers certain commercial fields in which a phenom-
enal growth has been stimulated by scientific discoveries. In these topics,
however, the scientific and research aspects are interwoven with deriva-
tive interest. While this group as a whole shows a peak in 1929-1930, each
of the topics has had its independent trend. "Other commercial applica-
tions of electricity'* covers such topics as electric railroads, electric lamps,
the telegraph and the telephone, whose weaving into the culture fabric
was going on in the latter part of the last century and the early part of
this. In the last decade these innovations have been such thoroughly
assimilated elements that relatively little popular discussion of them has
been stimulated. Radio, on the other hand, suddenly emerged as a
commercial and artistic possibility in the early 1920's and produced
profound readjustments in our culture fabric, with an accompanying
wave of discussion. The other topics have each had their own distinctive
histories. To the list here given there might have been added the phono-
graph, the telephone, rayon and many other commercial applications of
scientific discoveries.6
Intensive analysis by Mills and McGarraghy of articles and stories in
seven leading general periodicals shows that there, as well as in the more
"intellectual" magazines, it has been the immediately practical rather
than the theoretical phases of sciences that have increasingly absorbed
public attention. Indexes of attention in these two fields are given in Table
4. It should be noted that here as in the data of Table 3 pure research
6 Stuart Rice makes the following comment on the last section of Table 3 : " The maxi-
mum attention in print given to the topic 'automobiles' appeared in the period 1915-1918.
This was at the beginning of the period of most rapid extension of automobile ownership.
But the maximum usage of automobiles undoubtedly occurred in 1929 and 1930. If the
total volume of daily references to, and discussions of, automobiles could in some way be
summarized, one would expect to find the maximum in the latter years. This public atten-
tion would, of course, apply to automobiles in use rather than, as in 1915-1918, to auto-
mobiles as new and innovative experience. One would be tempted, from this item alone, to
hypothesize that the kind of attention which reaches print has its peak prior to the period
of maximum adoption or utilization. The peak in 1910-1914 for the topic 'aeronautics'
and in 1905-1909 for the topic 'other commercial applications of electricity' would appear
to substantiate such an hypothesis. But it would scarcely be substantiated for 'radio'
(peak in 1925-1928), and it is obviously inconsistent with 'moving pictures,' where the
peak is in 1929-1930. In the case of the latter, it is apparent that different kinds of interest
are involved. That is, the moving picture is a medium for developing and furthering interest
and discussion of personalities. I should suspect that the articles on moving pictures have
explicitly or implicitly their interest in personalities rather than in the motion picture as
an institution or a mechanical device. In other words, an article on moving pictures is a
different kind of an index of popular interest than is an article on the automobile. The
situations are partially comparable, but only to the extent that the public in a sense per-
sonifies the motor vehicle, regarding the fine points of a Buick or Ford in the same manner
that it regards the hair, eyes or nose of its favorite actresses, as discussed in motion picture
articles."
[ 394 1
ATTITUDES
TABLE 4. — APPLIED AND PURE SCIENCE IN SEVEN MASS CIRCULATION PERIODICALS"
Topics
Indexes of attention
1900
1913
1918
1920
1925
1928
1930
Applied research, f actuality, etc. . .
0.9
1.4
2.1
.9
2.3
.1
2.7
.6
2.7
.5
2.1
.7
3.0
1.3
Pure research, natural law, etc
0 These indexes were derived by dividing the number of attitude indicators in these subjects by the total
number of thousands of attitude indicators noted in all topics in the issues studied. Indexes for each of the seven
periodicals were calculated separately. The figures given are averages for all the periodicals.
TABLE 5. — PARTIAL ECLIPSE OF PHILOSOPHICAL, THEORETICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND
PSYCHIATRIC INTERESTS, 1905-JANUARY, 1932
(Measured by the ratio of articles indexed in Readers 6uide)a
Articles per thousand indexed
Item
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
19326
0 80
0 87
0 51
0 23
0 34
0 55
0 65
0 87
0 62
Logic
42
58
21
23
23
31
21
33
19
Pragmatism
35
16
04
00
02
05
00
07
00
Pessimism, optimism, time, knowledge,
and other philosophical problems
Realism, idealism, vitalism and other
philosophical viewpoints
Mysticism
.63
.49
.07
.67
.68
.33
.46
.43
.09
.31
.28
.16
.62
.42
.11
.67
.38
10
.34
.52
10
.54
.14
07
.94
.06
06
Relativity; "Einstein Theory"
.00
.09
.12
1.31
.47
.39
.34
22
19
18
36
20
20
26
43
54
47
56
Matter
61
.25
16
15
08
22
08
25
19
Humanism
05
.02
07
07
03
05
1 11
1 08
31
Sub-total
3.60
3.95
2.29
2.94
2.58
3.15
3.89
4.04
3.12
Metaphysical aspects of psychology: per-
sonality, memory, instinct, imagination,
fear, dreams, etc
2 31
2 19
1 31
1 14
1 12
1 79
1 82
1 16
1 49
Insanity
90
52
29
05
13
16
18
07
19
Mental and nervous diseases, etc
1.30
.67
.65
.38
.54
.81
.54
.43
.12
00
12
34
29
28
38
21
07
12
04
12
09
08
26
58
1 09
1 01
1 12
Sub-total
2. 24
1.43
1.37
80
1 21
1 93
2.02
1 58
1 55
Grand total
8 15
7 57
4 97
4 88
4 91
6 87
7 73
6 78
6 16
0 Where the distributions show definite bimodality, both maximums are in italics.
6 The last column covers the cumulation covering July, 1931 to January, 1932 inclusive. This period is too
short to provide any high degree of reliability, so that data given in this column should be interpreted with
caution.
[ 395 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
reached its lowest point in the middle rather than at the end of the
period.
The decline of attention given to pure science is relative rather than
absolute. The periodicals in which articles on science have been appearing
have been expanding their circulations, often by leaps and bounds. But
pure science has been getting a smaller and smaller fraction of this growing
volume of attention. It is probable that the number of persons giving
attention to pure science in their magazine reading has grown, but that
the number of readers not attending to pure science has grown more
rapidly.
Philosophic Topics Have Passed through a Depression. — The
relative decline of attention devoted to pure science and to religion in
magazine articles is allied to the partial eclipse of problems in the fields of
philosophy, metaphysical psychology and psychiatry. Data on this subject
are presented in Table 5.
The philosophical topics as a whole show a fairly consistent tendency
toward peaks just before the war and during the year 1930-1931. The
outstanding exceptions are pragmatism and mysticism which failed
to recover at the second peak; humanism which rose suddenly in 1929-
1930; and relativity, the maximum magazine discussion of which came in
1919—1921. With regard to pragmatism, it seems reasonable to suppose that
it has not ceased to be discussed but rather that it has become assimilated
into public thought to such an extent that special articles no longer appear
on this subject. New philosophical terms, such as "instrumentalism"
may have been substituted. The case of humanism appears to have been
different. The 1929-1930 peak was the result of a complex of factors. At
that time two kinds of humanism were being vigorously debated : literary
humanism as propounded by Irving Babbitt and Paul Elmer More and
religious humanism as conceived by such men as Charles Francis Potter
and Curtis Reese. In addition there was some concern for so-called scien-
tific humanism, proletarian humanism based on Marxian doctrines and
the traditional humanism of the Renaissance. This gloss serves to under-
line the important fact that seemingly simple tables may mask really
complex movements in public discussion.
"Personality" and allied psychological topics followed a discussion
trend closely similar to that of the psychiatric topics. Among the psy-
chiatric topics, the declining discussion of insanity and the rising interest
in mental hygiene reflect the shift from the attempt to provide a suitable
asylum or refuge for the mentally afflicted to the attempt to prevent and
remedy mental maladjustments.7
7 For a discussion of changing concepts regarding the mentally handicapped, see Chaps.
XXIV and XV.
[ 396 ]
ATTITUDES
In the seven mass circulation magazines analyzed by Mills and Mc-
Garraghy interest in philosophy and logic also dropped after the war to
a level consistently lower than half the height shown in 1900.
II. CHANGES IN RELIGIOUS INTERESTS AND ATTITUDES AS REFLECTED
IN BOOKS AND MAGAZINES8
The fact that attention devoted to religion in periodicals has declined
relative to the amount of attention given to other interests, and particu-
larly as compared with that devoted to popular science, has already been
indicated in connection with the reported circulations of various groups
of periodicals, as summarized in Table 2 and the relevant text. Regional
analysis of changes in the circulations of different classes of periodicals
indicates that religious journals published in the eastern states, bordering
on the Atlantic coast, have lost in circulation most heavily as compared
with other types of periodicals, while the religious papers published in
TABLE 6. — RELIGIOUS BOOKS: TRENDS IN SUBJECT MATTER, 1903-31
(Measured by ratios of titles to all non-fiction books indexed by subject in the U. S. Catalog)
Topics"
1903-
1905*
1912-
1917
1918-
1921'
1921-
1924
1925-
1926*
1930
1931
Total
47 7
31 6
30 2
35 8
44 0
39 7
43 2
Bible (all phases)
19 7
11 0
10 6
12 5
13 4
10 5
10 9
Future life: heaven, hell, immortality, salvation, resurrec-
tion, soul
2.1
1.5
1.0
1.2
1.8
1 3
1 1
4 6
2 9
3 2
3 7
3 4
5 1
3 8
Fundamentalism, modernism, creeds, dogmas, sacra-
ments, theology .... ...
2 4
1 5
1 1
1 0
2 6
1 4
1 8
Revivals and evangelism
9
5
4
6
7
5
4
Jesus Christ (all phases)
5.3
3.5
2 9
3 8
6 4
6 0
5.0
Church unity and cooperation
.4
.4
.7
.6
.3
.8
.3
Worship and church services
.2
.2
.2
.2
.4
.5
.3
£ 0
1 5
1 i
1 7
1 i
1 3
2 0
6
9
7
7
1 3
6
9
Missions and missionaries
3 9
3 6
3 0
3 5
4 0
3 1
4 5
Prayer
.6
6
.6
.7
.9
1 1
1 4
9
2
2
7
1 7
g
1 9
2 0
1 3
1 5
1 0
1 6
2 2
3 1
3
4
3
5
1 0
1 4
1 4
God .
7
4
1 0
9
1 2
l i
2 0
Christianity
I.I
1.2
1.7
£.5
2.2
2.0
2.4
Books per thousand indexed
0 This is not a complete analysis of all religious topics. Names of the various sects, religions and denomi-
nations (too numerous to be covered in the time available) have been omitted.
6 Because of limited time and the nature of the source material, it has not been practicable to assemble data
for the years 1906-1911 and 1927-1929.
'The 1918-1921 volume ends with June, 1921.
8 Compare with discussion of religious attitudes and beliefs in Chap. XX.
[ 397 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the far west have grown a little more rapidly than other types of periodi-
cals published in that region. For the country as a whole, however, three
different methods of investigation all indicate that Protestant periodicals
have dropped to about one-fifth as large a proportion of the total circula-
tion of all magazines as they held in 1900.
Decline in the Proportion of Books on Religion. — Religious book
titles, per thousand indexed in the U. S. Catalog, are summarized in
Table 6. For the totals, the main highest point was in 1903-1905, and the
lowest point in 1918-1921. The entire period from 1912 to 1921 was very
low in religious interest as reflected in book publication.
The sub-topics are arranged in the descending order of net losses,
and ascending order of net gains, from 1903 to 1931. The greatest loss
occurred in the publication of the Bible, its parts, and books about it.
This loss occurred, however, in the early part of the period. The present
figure of 10.9 is approximately the average for 1912-21. The Funda-
mentalist controversy was associated with a revival of publication in the
Bible field, but this has died down again. Another very heavy loss has
occurred in discussion of the future life and allied topics.
Marked gains in the proportionate number of books published have
occurred with respect to prayer, religion and science, the spiritual life,
God and Christianity.
Decline in the Proportion of Articles on Religion. — Among magazine
articles indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature the curve of
attention to religious subjects is somewhat similar to that of books as
shown in Table 6. The magazine index was at its height in 1905-1909,
when 21.4 religious articles per thousand indexed were recorded. This
number sank continuously until it was 11.0 in 1922-1924. The Funda-
mentalist agitation brought a rise to 14.6 in 1925-1928, but the index fell
off again to 10.7 in 1930-1931. Both the book and the magazine curves
have their maximum in the earliest period, have a low point after the
World War and show a partial recovery in 1925-1928. The proportion of
religious articles was about half that of religious books in 1905; by 1930
it had fallen to one-fourth, due to the sharper decline of the magazine
article curve. While religious books were at a higher level in 1930 than
during the period 1911-1922, religious articles had fallen to a lower
proportion than at any period since 1905.
An independent study of changes in the proportion of religious
magazine articles indexed in the Reader's Guide was made by Mary Frost
Jessup under the direction of C. Luther Fry. Instead of assuming, as was
done in the present study, that duplications of entries under various
categories would cancel out, Miss Jessup made a card catalog of the
religious articles and eliminated duplicates. In spite of this difference of
[ 398 ]
ATTITUDES
method she found the same general trend as that indicated in the figures
just presented.
She also sorted her cards by individual periodicals and made an
important discovery. The Outlook and the Independent published 388
religious articles in 1910-1912 or nearly one-fourth of all those which Miss
Jessup indexed from 69 leading periodicals in that period. But both of
these preeminent religious weeklies rapidly lost circulation and at the
same time decreased their religious articles. In 1928 they merged, but the
combination in 1930 carried less than one-third the number of religious
articles the Outlook alone had published in 1910. Meanwhile the Atlantic
Monthly, Forum and Literary Digest, all of which were gaining circulation
were at the same time increasing the number of their religious articles. At
least for these five periodicals, therefore, the number of different articles
published has not been a reliable index of the total number of copies of
religious articles circulated.
To allow for the influence of this factor the number of copies of
religious articles per 1,000 copies of the periodicals involved was calculated
for 21 magazines.9 The periodicals had a combined circulation of 16,000,-
000 in 1930. The method of calculating the index was as follows. In
1905—1909 there were printed, counting all the issues of every magazine,
an average of about 90,639,000 copies of these 21 periodicals per year.
TABLE 7. — RELIGIOUS ARTICLES PER THOUSAND CIRCULATED COPIES OF 21 SPECIFIED
MAGAZINES, 1905-1932°
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932
Total .
410
398
542
353
445
593
359
316
267
Church work in women's maga-
zines
171
129
110
26
46
20
9
7
0
Bible
81
36
17
25
72
73
84.
9
24
Spiritual life, prayer, etc
6
13
120
34
19
23
7
12
0
Ethical aspects of religion
15
29
21
32
32
29
15
21
10
Missions and revivals
25
25
68
37
24
34
41
50
23
Christianity
11
9
16
8
24
36
8
15
10
Fundamentalism- modernism. . .
8
1
0
0
23
31
3
1
9
Religion and science; God
5
6
12
2
44
37
26
48
6
Aesthetic aspects of religion. . . .
7
7
28
8
11
8
5
1
10
Jesus Christ
12
3
24
4
18
81
31
48
25
Roman Catholicism
17
27
32
24
19
38
13
15
33
Churches and ministers (in other
than women's magazines).. . .
52
113
94
153
113
183
117
89
117
" Indexed in the Reader's Guide.
9 Literary Digest, American, Collier's, Delineator, Good Housekeeping, Ladies' Home
Journal, Woman's Home Companion, Atlantic Monthly, Forum, Nation, Survey, Century,
Harper's Monthly, Review of Reviews, Scribner's, Outlook, Architectural Record, Arts and
Decorations, International Studio, Etude and Musician. It should be noted that these
magazines are not at all on the same "intellectual" plane.
[ 399 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
During that period the Outlook published an average of 43 religious
articles per year, circulating approximately 110,000 copies of each or a
total of 4,730,000 copies of religious articles per year.10 The Survey printed
about 10,000 copies of each of 5.8 religious articles per year or 58,000
copies in all. Similar calculations for the other 19 journals bring the total
up to 37,138,000 copies of religious articles per year in the 1905-1909
period or 410 per thousand copies of the periodicals involved. Details are
given in Table 7.
This weighted index of the attention given to religious matters in
leading periodicals had its peak in 1925-1928, when the Fundamentalism
controversy was raging. Its low point is in 1931-1932; during the twelve
months ending in June, 1932, the volume of religious discussion in these
periodicals was 24 percent lower than at any time previous to 1930 since
1905.
The heaviest loss has been the disappearance of church interests from
the women's magazines. Next has been the decline of discussion of the
Bible, which during the two years 1930-1932 received just about one-fifth
as much magazine attention as from 1905-1909. The greatest gain has
been in discussion of churches and ministers in other than women's
magazines. On analysis, this is found to have occurred exclusively in the
Literary Digest. Other marked increases have to do with Jesus Christ and
with Roman Catholicism.
The weighting used in Table 7 subordinates the importance of period-
icals such as the Atlantic Monthly, the Forum, the Nation and the Survey,
and emphasizes the trends shown in the Literary Digest and other period-
icals which have risen to circulations measured in millions. In order to
measure shifts of attention in ' 'intellectual" periodicals with more re-
stricted circulations, the Literary Digest, American, Collier's and women's
magazines were removed from the group covered in Table 7, and the
number of copies of religious articles per thousand copies of the periodicals
were re-calculated on the basis of the more restricted group. The results
appear in Table 8.
Here, as in the mass circulation magazines, the peak of discussion
came during and just after the Fundamentalism controversy. Since then,
as with the mass circulation group, the volume of attention has dropped
lower than in 1905-1918. But whereas 1931-1932 was a new low for the
mass circulation group, the "intellectual" group shows a definite recovery
to a point 35 percent higher than in 1919-1921.
Jesus has lost instead of gained attention in this group. The Bible, as in
the mass circulation group, showed some recovery in 1931-1932, but still
10 Strictly speaking, what has been used is not the number of articles but the number
of Reader's Guide entries. The term "entry" in this part of the study was redefined, so
that each article in a series counted as one entry, and articles printed in two different
magazines counted as two entries.
[ 400 ]
ATTITUDES
TABLE 8. — RELIGIOUS ARTICLES PER THOUSAND CIRCULATED COPIES, 1905-1932, IN THE
ATLANTIC, FORUM, NATION, SURVEY AND TEN OTHER "INTELLECTUAL" MAGAZINES
Topics
1905-
1009
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932
Total
396
403
342
182
264
562
516
230
282
Churches and ministers
130
155
114
82
50
136
150
45
84
33
0
36
12
24
22
44
3
o
Bible . .
40
55
16
7
30
15
5
6
22
Fundament&lism-modernism. . .
Spiritual life; prayer
14
14
3
25
0
87
0
14
25
17
27
25
5
8
11
0
0
o
Christianity
34
21
23
14
17
70
26
27
22
Missions and revivals
27
18
59
1
21
28
12
0
21
Roman Catholicism
30
28
19
12
23
109
84
28
36
Religion and science; God
Aesthetic aspects
Ethical aspects of religion
15
20
39
31
13
54
14
10
24
10
4
26
18
16
23
44
63
23
95
69
18
38
34
38
22
28
47
got less than half the attention it received from 1905 to 1914. Increased
interest has been shown in the ethical aspects of religion, but the level in
1931-1932 was lower than in 1910-1914.
The Bible Receives Less than Half the Attention It Had Twenty-
Five Years Ago. — Among readers of periodicals and books the relative
attention given the Bible has fallen notably during the past quarter
century. In Table 6 it is shown that of all the books classified by subject in
the United States Catalog in 1903-1905, 19.7 per thousand were about the
Bible; in 1931 only 10.9 per thousand were on that subject. Among
articles indexed by subject in the Reader's Guide 1.9 per thousand were
about the Bible in 1905-1909, while only 0.5 per thousand were on that
subject in 1929-1930 and only 0.4 in 1930-1931. The weighted indexes in
Tables 6 and 7 show even larger net reductions, but wider fluctuations.
In Table 7, it should be noted that the peak is in 1929-1930.
Not only have the proportions of books and of articles shown declines
between 1905-1909 and 1930-1932 of 44 to 80 percent in the relative
attention given the Bible, but both books and articles showed marked
recoveries in 1923 to 1926 with subsequent drops which established new
low points in 1930. These humps on the curves are easily understood when
the proportions of books and articles on Fundamentalism, Modernism,
creeds, dogmas, sacraments and theology are examined. Both for books
and for articles these subjects reached their highest proportion of atten-
tion in the period including 1925 — the year in which John Scopes was tried
at Dayton, Tennessee, on the charge of having taught evolution in viola-
tion of the state law on the subject. The trial was, of course, merely one
climactic episode in a protracted controversy. Revivals of discussion, both
of Fundamentalism and the Bible, came earlier in the magazine than in
[ 401 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the book data. It seems probable, then, that the temporary revival of
interest in the Bible was related to the Fundamentalist controversy,
though presumably other elements entered in.
When the unweighted data are compared with the indexes weighted
according to circulation it is found that the bulge of interest in the Bible
during and immediately after the Fundamentalist controversy was largely
a popular phenomenon, probably due to the advertising value of a
spectacle. Serious scholarly interest declined more sharply and showed less
recovery and more relapse. From scholarly periodicals (including the
Biblical Review, Biblical World, Bibliotheca Sacra, American Journal of
Theology, American Journal of Semitic Languages and the Journal of
Religion) "Bible" entries in the Reader's Guide and the International
Index averaged 75 per year in 1905-1909; while in 1929-1931 they
averaged only 17 per year.
Declining Approval of Organized Christianity. — Table 7 shows that
interest in church work, as reflected in articles in women's magazines,
dropped from the largest single aspect of religious attention in 1905—1909
to zero in 1931-1932. This may have resulted in part from declining gen-
eral prestige of the church as an institution. It should be borne in mind,
however, that under the patriarchal form of family life, which prevailed
until very recently in Euro- American civilization, women were largely
excluded from political, business and professional activies. One major
outlet for their executive, creative and social energies was found in the
church. In recent years the general adoption of woman suffrage, the rapid
extension of higher education among women and the greatly increased
admission of women to business and professional positions have provided
outlets which have, perhaps, absorbed energies formerly devoted to
church work. In addition to these factors one might suggest the possible
effects of moving pictures, radio, and automobile driving as substitutes for
the entertainment activities formerly provided by the churches, and the
development of organized recreation under secular auspices.
In contrast with the swift disappearance of church interest from
women's periodicals, discussion of ministers and churches in other peri-
odicals, as summarized in Table 7, reached its maximum amount in
1925-1928 and was twice as high in 1931-1932 as in 1905-1909. But a
large volume of discussion does not necessarily mean a high degree of
approval. In order to appraise social attitudes correctly, it is necessary to
obtain objective indexes of approval or disapproval as well as of
attention. With that in view, representative articles on religion from the
years 1905, 1920 and 1930 were selected and a systematic record was
made of indications in them of approving and disapproving attitudes.11
11 The periodicals involved, with the years from which articles were used, were as follows:
American Magazine, 1930; American Mercury, 1930; Arena, 1905; Atlantic, 1930; Century,
[ 402 ]
ATTITUDES
In analyzing these articles careful record was kept of every indication
of favorable or unfavorable attitudes toward each of 148 different concepts
or values related to religion. Toward the church and ministers there were
recorded 131 indications of favorable attitudes and 83 of unfavorable in
1905; the corresponding figures in 1920 were 38 favorable and 109
unfavorable; and in 1930, 22 favorable and 90 unfavorable were recorded.
The percentages of the attitude indicators which were favorable to the
church and ministers were therefore 61 percent in 1905, 26 percent in
1920 and 20 percent in 1930. Taking the samples for the years 1920 and
1930, together, 21 impartially selected articles in 17 periodicals were
analyzed; in these articles only 60 expressions of attitudes favorable to
churches and ministers were found, while 199 indicators of unfavorable
attitudes were noted.
Closely related to the attitudes just discussed have been those toward
the divinity of Jesus, the inspiration of the Bible, life beyond death,
creeds, dogmas, theology, atonement, baptism, Christianity, Sunday
school, evangelism and missions. On these topics, 282 favorable and only
35 unfavorable indications of attitude were noted in 1905; 125 favorable
and 37 unfavorable in 1920; and 58 favorable and 76 unfavorable in 1930,
resulting in the following percentages of favorable attitudes: 1905, 89;
1920, 77; and 1930, 43. Here, as in the case of ministers and the church,
more unfavorable than favorable reactions were recorded in 1930.
TABLE 9. — TRADITIONAL CHRISTIANITY, 1905-1930
(Approval and disapproval in representative articles selected impartially from Reader's Guide periodicals)
Item
1905
1920
1930
Approving attitude indi
Disapproving attitude ii
Total
413
118
163
146
80
166
531
78
309
53
246
33
Percent approving .
In Reader's Guide periodicals, as thus sampled, the infallible Bible,
traditional creeds, church organization and the propagation of organized
Christianity have dropped from relatively high favor into a state of
being severely criticized and opposed. This group of concepts will here-
after be referred to in brief as "traditional Christianity."
1920 and 1930; Commonweal, 1930; Contemporary (reprinted in Living Age), 1905 and 1920;
Forum, 1920 and 1930; Harpers Monthly, 1905 and 1930; Harpers Weekly, 1905; Independ-
ent, 1905 and 1920; International Quarterly, 1905; Ladies' Home Journal, 1905 and 1920;
New Republic, 1920; North American, 1905; Outlook, 1905, 1920 and 1930; Scribners, 1930;
Survey, 1930; Unpartisan Review, 1920; World Outlook, 1920; World Today, 1905; World's
Work, 1930. The method of sampling Reader's Guide periodicals for this intensive analysis
was devised purely with a view to securing representative samples of articles indexed
under the chief religious topics.
[ 403 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
When all the above attitude indicators relating to traditional Chris-
tianity are combined, the data presented in Table 9 are obtained.
The downward trend of the prestige of traditional Christianity has
been confirmed by analysis of several sets of samples independent of the
set just cited. Two of these were based on analysis of representative num-
bers of the American, Collier's, Cosmopolitan, Ladies' Home Journal,
Literary Digest, Saturday Evening Post and Woman's Home Companion,
conducted by Mills and McGarraghy under the writer's direction. The
findings of the independent studies made by these two investigators agree
that the ratio of approval of belief in the Bible, a future life, the divinity
of Jesus, creeds, dogmas, Christianity, the church, the Y. M. C. A. and
missions declined radically between 1900 and 1930. The data are sum-
marized in Table 10.
TABLE 10. — TRADITIONAL CHRISTIANITY IN HUGE CIRCULATION MAGAZINES, 1900-1930
(Approval and disapproval as shown in representative numbers analyzed by Mills and McGarraghy)
Analyst
1900
1913
1918
1920
1925
1928
1930
Mills:
Approving attitude indicators
Disapproving attitude indicators
146
41
46
8
92
0
124
24
32
38
25
13
41
35
Total
187
54
92
148
70
38
76
78
85
100
84
46
66
54
McGarraghy:
212
83
201
119
207
50
27
Disapproving indicators
0
1
7
6
46
0
11
Total
212
84
208
125
253
50
38
100
99
97
95
82
100
71
Both:
Approving indicators
Disapproving indicators
358
41
129
9
293
7
243
30
239
84
75
13
68
46
Total
390
138
300
273
323
88
114
90
93
98
89
74
85
60
The last line in Table 10 shows the analysis of Mill's and
McGarraghy's data combined. It will be noted that the percentage of
approving indicators among those noted for traditional Christian con-
cepts rose to its maximum in 1918 and fell to its minimum in 1930. The
trend of the curve is consistent with that shown in Table 9, but the mass
circulation periodicals reflect consistently more favorable attitudes
toward religion than those shown in the magazines of opinion having
more restricted circulation.
[ 404 ]
ATTITUDES
The rise from 1900 to 1918 arrests attention. Reference to Table 2
shows that the combined circulations of the religious periodicals there
covered also rose during this period and this is true also when the total of
reported religious circulations in Ayer's are analyzed : a rise from 10,827,-
000 in 1900 to 16,693,000 in 1920 is recorded. Church memberships per
thousand of population increased from 219 in 1906 to 232 in 1916 and then
rose very slowly to 234 in 1929, falling to 232 in 1930.12 The increased ratio
of approval in mass circulation magazines from 1900 to 1918 is therefore
consistent with other data.
While the conclusions of the two investigators, taken each by itself,
are less reliable than the combination, the trends are similar. Both show
the lowest points in 1925 and 1930; both show higher average levels in the
first three than in the last three years studied. McGarraghy's data are
consistently more favorable to traditional Christianity than are Mills',
in spite of the fact that the former included in his group of four periodicals
Collier's and the American — the least religious in their attitude indicators
of all the seven analysed. (It should be noted that McGarraghy is a Cath-
olic and Mills a Protestant.)
The indexes just cited were worked out before the method of weighting
by circulations had been developed. The contrast between the huge
circulation and the general Reader's Guide sample suggested the desira-
bility of checking the above conclusions by a fresh inquiry, using a
new sample containing only "intellectual" periodicals which have had
fairly continuous gains in circulation. The available periodicals fulfilling
these requirements proved to be the Atlantic Monthly, World's Work
and the Survey. The periods 1912-1914, 1927 and 1931 were selected
and two articles each from the Atlantic and the Survey and one from
World's Work for each of the three periods, indexed under " Christianity,"
"Church," "Ministers of the Gospel" or "Missions," were selected,
TABLE 11. — TRADITIONAL CHRISTIANITY IN THE ATLANTIC, WORLD'S WORK, AND SURVEY
(Approval and disapproval in 15 representative articles for 1912-1914, 1927 and 1931)
Item
1912-1914
1927
1931
140
75
23
Disapproving attitude indicators
104
207
103
Total
244
282
126
Percent approving
57
27
18
12 Supporting data will be found as follows: U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Com-
merce, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1930, pp. 3 and 62; Scripps Foundation Popu-
lation Estimates (Mimeographed, no date) ; American Journal of Sociology, 1931, vol. 36,
p. 1032; Literary Digest, May 5, 1928, vol. 97, pp. 30-1; May 9, 1931, vol. 109, p. 22. For
further discussion of religious attitudes, see Chap. XX.
[ 405 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
purely on the basis of length, chronological scatter and other impartial
considerations. The data summarized in Table 11 were derived from
these 15 articles.
A composite tabulation of the results derived from the general Reader's
Guide sample shown in Table 9 and the results from the "strictly intel-
lectual" sample shown in Table 11, is as follows:
Years
General
sample
"Strictly in-
tellectual"
sample
Years
General
sample
"Strictly in-
tellectual"
sample
1905
78
1927..
27
1912-1914
57
1930
33
1920
53
1931
18
If separate trend lines be drawn through the points indicated on
charts by each of these two samples, it will be found that the two trends
are practically parallel, but that the "strictly intellectual" group shows
consistently lower values at corresponding dates thus emhasizing further
the conclusions already pointed out.
Somewhat in contrast with the above results are findings obtained
by analyzing for each of the years 1914, 1927 and 1931, 12 articles from
the Literary Digest of the types used in connection with Table 11, and
for the year 1906, 6 such articles. The data are shown in Table 12.
TABLE 12. — APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL OF TRADITIONAL CHRISTIANITY
(In 42 representative articles from the Literary Digest for 1906, 1914, 1927 and 1931)
Item
1906
1914
1927
1931
91
275
219
196
59
261
302
114
Total
150
536
521
310
Percent approving
61
51
42
63
Evidence from the Literary Digest thus shows a downward slope con-
sistent with that of the other samples from 1906 to 1927, but then exhibits
a unique and sharp upturn. It will be remembered that the volume of
attention to church matters in the Digest also increased in 1931-1932.
If the percentages of approving attitudes toward traditional Chris-
tianity shown in tables 9 to 12 inclusive are plotted in four charts, one
for each table, and if the points in these charts are connected by straight
lines, and if, further, the values for the years indicated below are then
F 406 ]
ATTITUDES
read off from the four charts and averaged, the following composite
values, indicating approval of the church, ministers, creeds, etc., result:13
1905.
1910.
1915.
77
71
65
1920
1925,
58
48
1928.
1931.
48
40
In view of the general consistency of the findings from the various sam-
plings, these figures may be taken as an approximate summary of the
trend of attitudes expressed in magazines toward traditional religion.
In addition to the data just summarized, confirmation of the down-
ward trend of religious interest and approval has come from two other
investigations. The first is a study of attitudes revealed by the character-
istics of heroes, heroines, villains and villainesses in magazine fiction
and the second a study of motion pictures. Eleven students of sociology at
Bryn Mawr14 under the direction of the writer recorded the character-
istics of the characters who were obviously approved or disapproved by
the writers in short stories selected at random from magazine sources.
The moving pictures were selected by the students from February to
May, 1932.15
The favorable and unfavorable attitude indicators toward traditional
Christianity as defined above, per 1,000 noted, were as follows:
1900-1905, magazines. .
1931-1932, magazines:
Intellectual
Mass circulation . . .
Women's
Sensational
1932, moving pictures. .
Approving
65
14
15
15
25
21
Disapproving
26
22
7
7
5
10
In each of the 1931-1932 groups of magazines indications of attitudes
favorable to the church, ministers, the Bible and traditional Christianity
13 The composite values given above tend to emphasize the trends in the so-called
intellectual periodicals because the trends in these periodicals were more marked. These
values do not take into consideration the size of the circulation.
14 M. E. Bradley, J. S. Bronson, V. Butterworth, C. D. Candee, M. L. Cohen, E.
Gutmann, H. Hunter, K. N. Kruse, E. W. Remington, E. U. Thomas and A. E. Webster.
16 The sources studied and the number of story analyses turned in by the students are
as follows:
1900-1905 issues: Atlantic, 25; Century, 20; Harper's Monthly, 31; McClures's, 19;
Scribner's, 14; total for group, 109 analyses, covering 94 different stories. Total of attitude
indicators recorded, 737.
1931-1932 issues: "Intellectual" — American Mercury, 8; Atlantic, 34; Harper's, 45;
Scribner's, 14; total for group, 101 covering 52 stories. Total attitude indicators recorded,
557. "Mass circulation" — American, 20; Collier's, 20; Cosmopolitan, 45; Saturday Evening
Post, 18; total for group, 103 covering 71 different stories. Total attitude indicators re-
corded, 758. Women's — Delineator, 6; Good Housekeeping, 18; Ladies' Home Journal, 25;
McCall's, 20; Pictorial Review, 18; Woman's Home Companion, 18; total for the group, 105
covering 68 different stories. Total attitude indicators recorded, 882. Sensational Fiction —
[ 407 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
in general had a frequency only a fraction as great as in 1900-1905.
Unfavorable attitudes were indicated less frequently also but the percent-
age of unfavorable indicators had increased from 29 percent in 1900—1905
to 32 percent in the mass circulation and women's magazines and to 61
percent in the intellectual magazines in 1931-1932. Here, as in other
investigations, the greatest antagonism to traditional Christianity is
found in the magazines circulating in the more highly educated classes.
The sensational magazines of 1931-1932 were relatively less antagonistic
to religion than the standard magazines of 1900-1905.
Another study of sensational magazines was carried out with the
assistance of Mills and McGarraghy. They noted a total of 17,493
attitude indicators in selected numbers of Red Book, True Stories, Action
Stories and Popular Magazine for the years 1925 and 1930. Among these
only 83 related to the Bible, creeds, the church and the like, but 82 of
these indicated approving attitudes as against 1 disapproving, confirming
the previous conclusion that the all-fiction types of magazines are more
conservative religiously than the mass circulation magazines of opinion
and the intellectual periodicals.
The Rise of "Open Minded Religion." — While traditional Christianity
has been sinking to a new low point in public interest and esteem as
expressed in magazines, certain religious topics and concepts have in
recent years reached new high levels of attention and approval. Analysis
of Tables 6, 7 and 8 shows that the topics "God" and "Religion and
Science" (or these two combined) received more relative attention in
the latest volume analysed than in the earliest. Books and articles on
these topics have been relatively on the increase. Certain other topics
have shown gains more frequently than losses, or have suffered relatively
minor losses as compared with the topics grouped under the "traditional
Christianity" caption. Among these relatively vigorous and persistent
religious topics have been prayer, worship, spiritual life, Jesus Christ,
the church and social problems, and ethical aspects of religion. In general,
it may be said that the topics which have suffered the smallest losses
of attention, or which have actually shown net gains, have been related
to aspects not in direct conflict with science and not enmeshed in ecclesi-
asticism, but based on personal religious experience and involving
applications of the "social gospel" to economic problems. For want
of a better term, this group of topics will be referred to under the caption
of "open minded religion."
All-Story and Munseys Love Stories, 4; Breezy Stories, 3; Love Romances, 5; Illustrated Love
Magazine, Love, Real Love and Love Story, 15; Screen Romances, 3; True Confessions, 11;
True Story, 12; Liberty, 8; total for the group, 61 covering 57 different stories. Total attitude
indicators noted, 558. Moving pictures — 49 analyses covering 33 different moving picture
plays.
[ 408 1
ATTITUDES
TABLE 13. — OPEN MINDED RELIGION: APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL IN THE SAMPLES
REFERRED TO IN TABLES 9, 10 AND 11
Reader's Guide sample
1905
1920
19SO
Approving attitude indicators
400
159
811
Disapproving attitude indicators
68
26
150
Total
468
185
961
85
86
84
Mills and McGarraghy sample 1900 1013 1918
1920
1925
1928
1930
Approving attitude indicators. .. 265 275 368
Disapproving attitude indicators 002
266
0
380
5
SSI
0
875
0
Total 265 275 370
Percent approving 100 100 99
266
100
385
99
S31
100
375
100
Atlantic, World's Work and Survey
1912-1914
1927
1931
Approving attitude indicators
Disapproving attitude indicators
44
2
247
4
154
19
Total
46
251
173
96
98
89
Literary Digest
1906
1914
1927
1931
137
274
254
143
Disapproving attitude indicators
33
15
22
23
Total
170
289
276
166
81
95
92
86
Combined index 1905 1910 1915
1920
1925
1928
1931
Average percent approving 90 92 94
94
93
93
90
Study of approvals and disapprovals related to these topics in the
articles analyzed shows that while a measurable increase of antagonism
toward these phases of religion has been registered, this opposition has
been relatively negligible as compared with that shown against traditional
Christianity. The combined index, derived from data summarized in
[ 409 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Table 13, shows only 6 percent of the expressed attitudes antagonistic
in 1915 and only 10 percent in 1931.
In relation to the attitude indicators analysed in Table 13, those noted
in the other investigations should be studied. Short story and moving
picture characters, as covered in the Bryn Mawr study previously
described, revealed the following attitudes toward God and prayer per
1,000 attitude indicators noted:
Groups
Attitude indicators toward
"open minded religion"
per 1,000 noted
Groups
Attitude indicators toward
"open minded religion"
per 1,000 noted
Favorable
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
1900-1905, magazines
1931-1932, magazines:
Intellectual
Mass circulation.
Women's
33
22
7
11
4
14
2
1931-1932 maga-
zines— (Cont'd.)
Sensational
1932, moving pic-
27
21
0
2
The hero and heroine study shows that the greatest skepticism about God
and prayer are expressed in the "intellectual" periodicals, while the least
skepticism is expressed in the sensational magazines. The most interest
occurs at the extremes: the "intellectual" magazines, the sensational
magazines and the, movies are most interested, while the magazines of
opinion with huge circulations show least interest. In confirmation of
the reactions found for sensational magazines by the Bryn Mawr study,
the analysis of fiction in True Stories, the Red Book, Popular Magazine
and Action Stories in 1925 and 1930 found 556 indicators of approval
of God, prayer, faith, righteousness and the like, nothing disapproving,
except 17 cases in which admired characters used profanity.
Changes in Religious Discussion. — The change from traditional
Christianity to open minded religion is evident also from a statistical
analysis of the attitude indicators recorded in the representative articles
analyzed. The most important statistical changes have involved four
outstanding tendencies :
1. The 1930 and 1931 articles tend to accept science as a chief ally
in the religious quest instead of regarding it as an antagonist to be fought
against or as a disturbing foreign element to be reconciled or adjusted to.
In the 1905 articles, 151 references to science were found, of which 40
percent were antagonistic; in the 1930 articles, 352 references to science
were found, of which only 18 percent were antagonistic.
£. The recent articles emphasize progress and open mindedness. It
used to be widely implied that religious truth had been revealed perfectly,
once for all, 19 centuries ago. This idea has disappeared from recent
[ 410 ]
ATTITUDES
religious articles in the periodicals analyzed. Creeds, dogmas, authority,
the divinity of Jesus and the like, which received 114 favorable references
and only 36 unfavorable in 1905, had 116 unfavorable and only 10
favorable references in 1930.
3. References to God increased from 108 in 1905 to 221 in 1930 but
more skepticism has recently been expressed on the subject. The doubts
raised have related chiefly to the question of whether God is personal.
The approving references relate neither to the ancient Hebrew Jehovah,
nor to the omniscient, omnipotent Deity of medieval metaphysics, but
rather to the conceptions which well known scientists and philosophers
have recently been discussing under such terms as Creative Coordination,
Holism, Creative Synthesis or the Integrating Process at work in the
universe.
4. Interest and belief in a life beyond death have dropped to a fraction
of the level which they held a quarter-century ago in these periodicals.
Articles on these topics numbered 0.57 per 1,000 in 1910-1914 and only 0.15
per 1,000 in 1930-1931. In the articles analysed intensively for 1905, 99
references to a future life were noted, of which 78 percent were favorable;
in 1930 only 13 such references were found, of which 12 were antagonistic.
The goals avowed in these recent articles on religion are fulfillment of
personality, the attainment of rich experience and the achievement of
basic values here on earth.
Interest Shown in Psychical Research, Spiritualism and the Occult. —
Somewhat in contrast with the traditional religious attitudes toward
spiritual matters has been the approach of certain groups who claim to
have obtained verifiable contacts with the invisible world. Three groups
of this general sort may be distinguished. The psychical researchers seek
to apply strictly scientific methods to the investigation of alleged spiritual
or mysterious phenomena. The spiritualists claim to have obtained
convincing proofs of survival beyond death and have organized a religion
around alleged communications from the departed. A miscellaneous
TABLE 14. — PSYCHICAL, SPIRITUALIST AND OCCULT TOPICS, 1905-1932
(In Reader's Guide magazines)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932«
Psychical research, telepathy, etc
Spiritualism
0.68
33
0.42
29
0.35
34
0.49
64
0.49
28
0.25
10
0.08
08
0.00
04
0.13
00
06
09
10
04
03
12
03
25
10
Total . . .
1 07
80
59
1 17
80
47
19
29
20
0 Carried through the April, 1932 number.
[ 411 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
group includes followers of astrology, theosophy and other "occult
sciences." Changes in the volumes of magazine discussion under these
heads are shown in Table 14.
While magazine articles appear to reflect a marked downward trend
of interest in psychical research and spiritualism offset only slightly by a
few recent articles on astrology, data with regard to books and New York
Times Index items published in these fields reflect a somewhat different
trend. The facts are presented in Table 15.
Possible Prognoses for Religion. — Tentative forecasts as to possible
future developments in religious attitudes may be made in two ways : first,
by extrapolation of observed trends in discussion; and second, by an
attempted appraisal of underlying causal factors and their trends.
Extrapolation of trends suggests the probable further decline of
interest and belief in traditional Christianity, as herein defined. Approval
of the concepts and institutions there involved has clearly been declining
TABLE 15.— PSYCHICAL, SPIRITUALIST AND OCCULT TOPICS, 1913-1931°
(In titles of books indexed in the U. S. Catalog, and in items classified in the New York Times Index by
individual years)
Psychical research ., etc.
Spiritualism, etc.
Astrology and the occult
Years
U. S. Cata-
log entries
New York
Times Index
items
U. S. Cata-
log entries
New York
Times Index
items
U. S. Cata-
log entries
New York
Times Index
items
1913
5
1
6
3
20
2
1914
6
0
7
1
12
8
1915
4
2
7
j
6
1
1916
5
1
11
0
11
0
1917
10
0
17
0
7
0
1918
16
0
29
2
5
1
1919
15
2
31
18
10
0
1920
fff
9
80
44
13
6
1921
11
4
33
35
7
7
1922
4
2
28
78
14
15
1923
8
2
18
111
18
15
1924
4
1
17
37
6
5
1925
6
2
16
67
8
18
1926
9
3
12
51
10
11
1927
9
3
10
36
6
29
1928
6
1
9
30
20
9
1929
9
2
22
16
23
14
1930
9
23
34
0
44
15
1931
*11
6
*28
9
b44
19
0 Both in books and in New York Times Index items, spiritualism has received more attention than either of
the other two groups of topics, except that occult topics have recently come to the fore. The scientific approach
through psychical research has had two peaks, one in 1920 and one in 1930-1931. In the data on spiritualism
it is noticeable that the peak of books came three years before the peak of newspaper attention.
6 Estimated on the basis of preliminary returns.
[ 412]
ATTITUDES
in the magazines analyzed, and the ratio of disapproval to approval has
been increasing. If present trends continued, the subject would disappear
through the triumph of the disapproving over the approving attitudes.
Trends of attention and opinion about "open minded religion," as
reflected in Tables 7, 8 and 13, are contradictory: the short time trend is
downward, while the long time trend is upward. Magazine interest and
expressions of belief in God, the spiritual life, social applications of
Christianity and the search for values harmonious with reality as revealed
by science have increased during the past thirty years and have declined
during the past five years. If the decline continues and no important
new elements enter into the situation, it seems probable that Christianity
in both its newer and its older forms will occupy a smaller and smaller
place in the intellectual lives of the more highly educated sections of
the American people. But if developments should continue along the
trend which is evident over the longer period, it seems possible that
a new religion may develop, as different, perhaps, from traditional
Christianity as Christianity was from Judaism. The recent rise of interest
in religious humanism may prove to be significant in connection with
these alternatives.
Dependence upon a mechanical projection of trends may be the most
objective method of forecasting the future, but to the present investigator
it seems sounder to attempt to estimate as best one may the causal
factors lying back of the superficial trends. In the opinion of this investi-
gator, the underlying development which explains the trends evident
in religious discussion has been the long time shift in prevalent criteria
of truth from traditional authority to open minded, objective investigation
by means of experimentation, statistical surveys, scientific history, case
studies and the like. In recent years this development has been modified
somewhat by the revived interest in philosophical methods of seeking
truth.
If this trend away from traditional dogma and toward objective
investigation is accepted as having been fundamental in its effects on
religious attitudes, the opinion which anyone forms about the future
of religion will be affected basically by his opinion as to whether this
trend toward science will continue or relapse.
Equally important in determining one's religious forecast will be his
opinion as to whether a real spiritual environment exists. Christianity
has been built around beliefs in a future life, in invisible superhuman
personalities, in the living leadership of Jesus Christ, in the power of
prayer and in the reality and vitality of communion with God. Some
eminent scientists and philosophers have of late reaffirmed their belief
in these; others have denied them.
[ 413 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Four possible types of forecasts result, according to the possible com-
binations of belief and disbelief about the future of science and about
the reality of a spiritual environment. To deny both leads to an expecta-
tion of a recrudescence of superstition. To deny the increasing triumph
of science but affirm the reality of spiritual things leads to an expectation
of the renewed growth of mysticism. To deny the reality of spiritual
things but affirm the increasing development of science leads to an
expectation of growing mechanistic materialism. To believe both in the
reality of spiritual things and in the continuing expansion of the fields
in which objective ascertainment of truth is possible leads to an expecta-
tion of a creative partnership between science and religion.
All of these four possible positions are held by considerable groups of
people, and the choice between them must as yet be based upon opinion
rather than proof. But one forecast can be made with some confidence:
if science and inductive philosophy go on developing, men will increas-
ingly discover whether or not spiritual things are real and will adjust
their religious attitudes accordingly.
III. SOME IMPORTANT SHIFTS IN OPINIONS ABOUT SEX AND
FAMILY RELATIONS
Relative amounts of magazine attention devoted to prostitution, birth
control, divorce, sex morals and family life are shown in Table 16.
TABLE 16. — SEX AND FAMILY TOPICS IN MAGAZINES, 1905-1931
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
Prostitution
0 16
1 S3
0 31
0 07
0 17
0 10
0 10
0 18
Birth control
Divorce
.00
.63
.12
.78
.55
.21
.10
.34
.21
.44
.38
.67
.54
.54
1.09
.69
£1
39
29
20
49
54
49
65
Family, home, marriage, etc
4 16
4 78
2 78
2 50
2 60
4 06
4 58
5 61
Total
5.16
7.30
4.14
3.21
3.91
5.75
6.25
8.82
Prostitution. — During the years 1910-1914, the proportional number
of articles about this subject was four times as large as at any other time
between 1905 and 1931; except for the war period, this peak was seven
times as high as the level at any other time. Similarly, in the New York
Times Index, "white slave traffic" and equivalent topics had 37 entries
in 1914, 27 in 1915, 11 in 1916, 26 in 1917, 5 in 1918, 1919 and 1920
[ 414 ]
ATTITUDES
combined, and 20 in 1921. After that date the largest number in any
one year was 12 entries in 1931.
Attitudes expressed in the magazine articles analyzed were universally
condemnatory of commercialized prostitution. The articles published on
the subject refer repeatedly to the studies of vice conditions in Chicago
and in other cities, which were being made by the newly developed social
survey method. To this extent the vice crusades were connected with
the application of science to the study of social problems. The prominence
given the subject in the Survey magazine reflects the contribution made
by social workers. Frequent references to participation by ministers and
church organizations indicate that a large part was played by religious
motivation. The anti-vice campaigns resulted in federal and local anti-
vice legislation, and in crusades which broke up segregated vice districts
in many cities. Since the war, discussion in this field has centered around
night clubs, road houses and extra-marital sex relations by women who
are not professional prostitutes.
Antagonism Toward Traditional Sex Attitudes. — Intensive analysis
of three different sets of sample articles shows consistently that attitudes
toward birth control, divorce and sex freedom before and outside of
marriage became more liberal, or radical, from about 1918 until about
1925 and then became more conservative again, particularly with re-
spect to divorce and sex freedom. These trends are evident in the mass
circulation periodicals analyzed by Mills and McGarraghy, in a general
sample of articles in the analysis of which the author, Mills and McGar-
raghy cooperated and in a more intensive sample of "intellectual"
periodicals which the author alone analyzed.
Birth Control Opinion.™ — Articles about birth control (which were
first included under the classification "race suicide") began to be indexed
in the Reader's Guide only after 1909 and references to the subject before
that date were very scattering. But in 1915-1918 the topic had become
a subject of extensive controversy. Just after the war a lull occurred, but
in 1930-1931 the volume of magazine discussion was twice as large as
in the earlier peak. A somewhat similar trend is found in the number
of entries about birth control in the New York Times Index:
1914 0
1915 7
1916 32
1917 39
1918 1
1919 2
Opinions expressed about birth control have been predominantly
more favorable than unfavorable. Very few references to the subject
16 For further discussion of birth control, see Chaps. I and XIII.
[ 415 ]
1920
3
1926
... 16
1921
33
1927
16
1922
41
1928
... 19
1923
23
1929
48
1924
13
1930
42
1925 . .
..25
1931..
. 71
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
appeared in the mass circulation periodicals analyzed by Mills and
McGarraghy. Combining the other two sets of samples, taken chiefly
from "intellectual" magazines, the following attitude indicators on
this subject were noted:17
Indicators of attitudes toward birth control
renoa
Favorable
Unfavorable
Total
Percent favorable
1905-1914
21
3
24
•86
1915-1918
125
123
248
50
1919-1921
124
18
142
87
1922-1929
391
224
615
64
1930-1931
256
134
390
66
0 It should be noted that the figures on which this index is based are too small to make the index reliable.
Opinion Favoring and Opposing Easy Divorce.18 — The volume of
magazine discussion about divorce declined two-thirds during the war
but came back to nearly its pre-war level in 1925 to 1931. As reflected
in the New York Times Index, divorce discussion went through this
TABLE 17. — DIVORCE ITEMS LISTED IN NEW YORK TIMES INDEX, 1914-1931
Year
Number of divorce
items including accounts
of individual suits
Year
Number of divorce items
Including accounts of
individual suits0
Excluding accounts of
individual suits
1914. . .
393
326
192
195
179
147
1920
286
457
528
484
438
590
654
39
74
83
74
81
155
138
178
115
94
89
140
1915
1921
1922
1916
1917
1923
1918
1924
1919
1925 .
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
0 Not indexed after 1926.
17 For the sake of clarity in exposition, and in order to avoid controversies about method-
ology, the various samples were merely pooled in order to obtain a general indication of
shifts of opinion about birth control. More refined and intricate methods of weighting and
combining the indexes from different samples indicates that the percentage of attitudes
favoring birth control declined to a minimum of 69 in 1916, rose to a maximum of 90 in
1924, and declined again to 71 in 1931. These results, however, must be regarded as mere
approximations, with a fairly wide margin of error.
18 For data on trends in divorces, see Chap. XIII.
[ 416 ]
ATTITUDES
same war-time depression, and also reached new peaks of volume in 1925
and 1927 with a somewhat smaller peak in 1931. The data are given in
Table 17.
Approval of more freedom in seeking divorces reached a minimum
during the war period and a maximum between 1922 and 1929. The
evidence on which this statement is based is taken from the two sets
of samples referred to in connection with birth control. The data are
as follows:19
Period
Indicators of attitudes toward easy divorce
Approving
Disapproving
Total
Percent
approving
1905-1914
170
18
45
122
119
188
100
67
111
188
358
118
112
233
307
47
15
40
52
39
1915-1918
1919-1921
1922-1929
1930-1931 ...
The Bryn Mawr study of heroes and heroines described above sheds
some additional light on shifts of opinion about divorce:
Indicators
per 1,000
Period and group
Approving
divorce
Disapproving
divorce
1900-1905
1
5
1931-1932:
"Intellectual," mass circulation and women's magazines .
10
14
Movies. . .
22
2
The Question of Sex Freedom. — Discussion of sex morals in Reader's
Guide periodicals was three times as frequent in 1930-1931 as in 1919-
1921, according to data in Table 16. In the New York Times Index,
entries under "morals," "moral conditions," etc., rose, from 0 in 1914,
1915 and 1918, to 92 in 1926 and then sank to 6 in 1931.
Attitudes toward extra-marital sexual intercourse have undergone
rather violent fluctuations since 1900 and particularly during the past
15 years. Correlated with attitudes on adultery, seduction and the like,
19 More refined methods of weighting and combining the data indicate that the percentage
of attitudes approving easy divorce reached a minimum of about 33 in 1918, rose to a maxi-
mum of about 69 in 1926, and declined again to 37 in 1931.
[ 417 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
have been those relating to sex "thrill," promiscuous petting and the
exposure of the human body. Grouping together the attitude indicators
on these topics from the two sets of samples involving Reader's Guide
and "intellectual" magazines, the shifts of approval and disapproval
are reflected as follows:
Period
Indicators of "intellectual" magazine attitudes toward sex freedom
Approving
Disapproving
Total
Percent
approving
1905-1914
130
37
26
232
198
598
122
447
180
400
728
159
473
412
598
18
23
5
56
33
1915-1918 . .
1919-1921
1922-1929
1930-1931
Here, again, the height of sentiment against traditional sex morals
occurs between 1922 and 1929, preceded by a minimum and followed by a
reaction. Particularly from 1923 to 1927 it was more frequently asserted
than denied in these magazines that love, not marriage, was the only
justification of sex relations, that sexual intercourse was a private matter
in which society had no concern as long as children were avoided, that
celibacy was abnormal and deleterious and the like. Then this demand
for sex freedom, like that for divorce freedom, began to decline, while
objections began to be more widely voiced in these magazines than at
any time during the entire period studied. In the latest magazine articles
analyzed, opposition to departures from monogamy was expressed three
times as frequently as approval.
As a check upon and further exploration of these conclusions, the
results of the study of mass circulation magazines by Mills and McGar-
raghy are comprehensive enough to be of value:
Date
Indicators of mass circulation magazine attitudes toward sex freedom
Approving
Disapproving
Total
Percent
approving
1900
2
9
7
15
88
64
17
174
70
45
43
164
95
103
176
79
52
58
252
159
120
1
11
13
26
35
40
14
1913.
1818
1920.
1925
1928
1930.
418
ATTITUDES
Unlike the other trends which have been considered in relation to sex
matters, the attitudes on sex freedom, as reflected in mass circulation
periodicals, show an increase of radicalism from 1900 to 1918 instead
of a decline. The peak comes, however, at about the same period as in
the other series and the reaction in 1930 is clearly marked.
Heroes and heroines in fiction show a marked increase of sex radi-
calism, as shown in Table 18. The most radical views (in the groups of
magazines cited) were expressed in "intellectual" magazines; but even
the women's periodicals of 1931-1932 were emphatically more radical
TABLE 18. — SEXUAL IRREGULARITIES BY HEROES, HEROINES, VILLAINESSES AND VILLAINS
IN SHORT STORIES AND MOVING PICTURES, 1900-1904 AND 1931-1932
Date and group
Number of fictional char-
acters in whom violation of
monogamy was presented
with—
Per 1,000 indicators noted
Percent
approving
Approval
Disapproval
Approval
Disapproval
1900—1905, magazines
1
19
13
10
13
34
29
43
39
40
66
42
1
34
17
11
23
54
39
77
51
45
118
67
3
31
25
20
16
45
1931-1932, magazines
" Intellectual ". r . ;
Mass circulation
Women's
1932, movies ; .
than the 1900-1905 group. The sensational magazines showed more
relative interest in sex problems than any other group, but they were
only about one-half as radical as the "intellectual" group — they were
markedly more conservative than even the women's magazines, though
they gave two and one-half times as much attention to the description
and discussion of departures from monogamistic morality.
Intense interest in sex, with avowedly conservative attitudes,
characterized also the sensational magazines analyzed by Mills and
McGarraghy. In 1925, in True Story, Red Book and Popular, 27 attitude
indicators per 1,000 were concerned with sex, as compared with 15 per
1,000 in the mass circulation magazines. In the former group, only 31
attitude indicators approved sex thrills and other sex freedom concepts,
while 233 disapproved adultery, immodesty and other aspects of sex
freedom. This gives an approving percentage of 12 as compared with
35 in the mass circulation magazines of the same year. In 1930, True
Story, Red Book and Action Stories had 44 sex interest indicators per
1,000, as compared with 10 in the mass circulation group. The percentage
of indicators approving sex freedom had risen to 17 in the sensational
[ 419 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
magazines, while the corresponding percentage in the mass circulation
group (as analyzed also by Mills and McGarraghy) had fallen to 14.
In contrast with the conservatism of the sensational magazines, the
movies were found to be more radical than even the "intellectual"
magazines. In the 49 analyses, made by 10 different investigators, cover-
ing 33 different pictures between February and May, 1932, conformity
with monogamistic mores was an approved characteristic in 42 instances,
while nonconformity was evidently condoned or approved in 34 in-
stances.20 Comparative data on sex freedom for the different groups
covered by the hero and heroine study are shown in Table 18.
The Declining Approval of Religious Sanctions for Sex Conduct—
In the magazine articles on family and sex life, selected impartially
for intensive analysis by Mills, McGarraghy and the author, varying pro-
portions of the attitude indicators were favorable to the application
of religious sanctions in relation to sex conduct — as for example en-
dorsing church opposition to divorce and birth control, invoking Biblical
authority on subjects of this sort, or calling for religious campaigns
against vice and immorality. Other expressions of opinion denied the
right of the church to interfere and called for emancipation from religious
taboos and dogmas. The proportions of approving and disapproving
expressions of opinion on religious sex sanctions (averages from two
independent but consistent sets of samples) are shown in Table 19. It
will be noted that in 1925 to 1929, when the wave of rebellion against
traditional sex attitudes was at its height, approval of religious sex sanc-
tions was at a minimum, amounting to less than half the proportionate
level in 1905. Disapproval of religious sanctions increased about this
same time to a point greater than the amount of favorable opinion. As
the wave of radicalism or liberalism has subsided in magazine articles,
religious sanctions have somewhat reasserted themselves but opposition
also has increased.
The more extreme demands for freedom in sex conduct were based
largely upon assertions of alleged fundamental principles such as that
love is the only justification for sex relations. It was also argued that
one's sex life is a private matter in which neither law nor public opinion
has any right to interfere. Both radicals and conservatives based argu-
ments about the "single standard of morals'* upon the principle of
equality between men and women.
20 Will Hays was kind enough to send to Washington to confer with the writer Joseph
I. Breen, his assistant in charge of the application of the moral code which the moving picture
producers adopted. Breen discussed with the writer and left in his hands for several
weeks correspondence relating to certain moving pictures not conforming to the code. It
seems clear from this correspondence that, while the spirit of the code has clearly been
violated, Breen and his organization made strenuous efforts to persuade the producers
to conform to the standards agreed upon.
[ 420 ]
ATTITUDES
The subordinate peak of approval for scientific sex sanctions which
came about 1910-1911 (see Table 19) was due largely to references to
social surveys on which the ant i- vice campaigns were based. The more
recent and higher peak was the result of references to statistical studies
of divorce and of birth rates as related to birth control, citation of medical,
economic and other scientific authority on sex problems, and presentation
of case histories or of less formal instances. This peak reached its height
in 1924-1926 — the same time that the largest proportions of liberal and
radical opinions were being expressed in magazine articles about birth
control, divorce and sex freedom generally. In this connection, the rise
and decline of magazine attention to psychoanalysis and the develop-
ment of interest in mental hygiene should be noted (see Table 5). The
decline of reliance on scientific sanctions and the definite increase of
skeptical references to them in 1931 should be compared with the decline
in circulations of popular scientific magazines since 1928, as shown in
Table 2, and the decline in the relative number of magazine articles about
scientific research since 1928, as shown in Table 3.
Changes in sex attitudes have probably been connected to some
extent with technological developments, such as the introduction of
the automobile and the dissemination of birth control devices; with the
results of industrial development such as the growth of cities; with the
transfer of functions from the home to the factory; and with the dis-
integration of patriarchal family conceptions — factors discussed at
greater length in other chapters, notably those on inventions and the
family. The evidence presented in the present section, however, suggests
to the investigator that a major factor in recent shifts of attitudes toward
sex behavior has been the breakdown of traditional religious control and
partially worked out attempts to substitute scientific criteria.
TABLE 19. — RELIGIOUS AND SCIENTIFIC SANCTIONS FOR SEX CONDUCT: APPROVAL AND
DISAPPROVAL, 1905-1931
(Estimated in units of attitude indicators per thousand noted)0
Year
Religious sanctions
Scientific sanctions
Approval
Disapproval
Approval
Disapproval
1905
197
158
118
89
75
78
97
155
59
46
40
71
97
97
114
132
125
168
98
83
m
208
169
130
14
19
17
3
15
12
16
S8
1910
1915
1920
1925
1928
1930.
1931
• The cross totals in this table would equal 1,000 if all the sex attitude indicators were included.
[ 421 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Changes in Other Significant Family Attitudes. — Besides those
directly related to sex conduct, opinions expressed about family matters
have changed significantly in relation to three other matters. First,
expressions of the desire to have children have dropped to less than one-
third the relative frequency of such expressions in the magazine articles
of 1905. 21 Second, expressions of approval of marriage and family life,
after declining persistently between 1905 and 1920, increased to more
than double their 1905 frequency in 1930. Third, approving references to
comradeship, loyalty, understanding, affection, sympathy, facilitation,
accommodation, integration and cooperation in family life doubled their
frequency between 1905 and 1914, fell off in 1920 and then rose to three
times their 1905 level in 1930. Indexes of net frequency on these topics
are presented in Table 20.
TABLE 20. — RELATIVE FREQUENCIES OF APPROVING MINUS DISAPPROVING REFERENCES
TO HAVING CHILDREN, GETTING MARRIED AND SHOWING COOPERATIVE ATTITUDES
IN FAMILY LIFE, 1905-1930
Topics
Indexes of net frequency0
1905
1914
1920
1930
Desire to have, or approval of having, children
0.12
.18
.39
0.07
.16
.81
0.06
.12
.43
0.04
.44
1.02
Comradeship, loyalty, understanding, affection, sympathy, facilita-
tion, accommodation, integration, cooperation
a These indexes were derived as follows: The number of unfavorable references to the topic in question
in the articles for the year in question was subtracted from the number of favorable references. The difference
was divided by the total number of thousands of attitnde-indicators noted in articles on family and sex for
that year. This number was multiplied by the number of articles on marriage, the home, and family life for that
year, per thousand indexed in the Reader's Guide. For example, in 1905, out of 2,275 attitude indicators noted
in articles on family and sex, 98 suggested the desirable aspects of having children, and 24 suggested the undesir-
able aspects. The desirable minus the undesirable constituted 0.0325 of the total. Articles about the family,
etc. constituted 3.75 of those indexed in 1905. Multiplying these, the net approval of having children amounts
to 0.12 in terms of articles per thousand.
Summary of Changes in Opinion About Sex Conduct. — All the evi-
dence summarized above from magazine articles, short stories, moving
pictures and the New York Times Index is consistent with the following
conclusions:
1. Magazine discussion of family and sex matters had two peaks —
one in 1910-1914 and one in 1930-1931. The latter may or may not have
reached its crest.
2. Prostitution and immediately related topics provided nearly
half of the sex morals subject matter in magazines in 1910-1914 but in
21 This change is not so evident in short stories. In the Bryn Mawr study, net attitude
indicators (per 1,000) favorable to having children were as follows: 1900-1905 group, 22;
1931-1932, "intellectual" 20, mass circulation 14, women's 20, sensational 40, and moving
pictures 21.
[422]
ATTITUDES
1930-1931 had given place to birth control, divorce and non-commercial
sex relations.
3. Approval of birth control, of easy divorce and of extra-marital
sex relations in magazine articles was larger in proportion to disapproval
in 1924-1927 than either before or later.
4. Toleration of extra-marital sex relations by the general public,
as reflected in short stories, moving pictures and plays, has lately been
several times as great as it was in 1900.
5. The women's periodicals gave far more attention and toleration
to breaches of the sexual morality code in 1931-1932 than the magazines
of 1900-1905. More attention and more toleration were given by the mass
circulation magazines of 1931-1932. Much more attention and still more
toleration or approval were given by the "intellectual" magazines of
1931-1932. More interested still, but avowedly most opposed to extra-
marital relations, were the sensational periodicals.
6. Moving pictures were more apt than any class of magazines studied
to present divorce and sexual irregularities in an approving light.
7. The waning power of religious sanctions is closely related with
the recent rise of antagonism against monogamistic sex mores.
IV. THE RISE AND REVERSAL OF PROHIBITION SENTIMENT
Fluctuating Volume of Liquor Problem and Prohibition Discussion. —
Three well marked peaks are observable in the frequencies of articles
indexed under these subjects during the past 25 years. The first and
highest22 of the three came in 1908, when scores of articles were published
about the "tidal wave" of state and local prohibition, particularly in
the south, but also in Illinois, Michigan, Colorado, Nebraska, Indiana,
Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota and other states.23 By 1912 magazine dis-
cussion of liquor problems had dropped to its old level which was about
one-eleventh as high as in 1908. From then onward the frequency of
articles on these topics again increased until it reached a second peak in
1915 in connection with the rising demand for national prohibition. A
decline again took place, until in 1921 the relative frequency was only
about one-third as high as in 1915. From 1921 until 1926 the discussion
increased in volume until it had attained nearly its 1908 level, but since
22 When the volumes of the Reader's Guide are taken as units, the highest rate of prohibi-
tion discussion is found in the 1929-1930 volume, as shown in Table 24. But when individual
years are counted, the rates are found to be as follows:
1905
.. 0.77
1910
. 1 51
1915
4 96
1920
2 79
1925 u.-
5 35
1906
.. .92
1911
. 2.47
1916
. . 4 91
1921 :. ..
. . 1 73
1926
8 05
1907
. . 1 . 84
1912
. .82
1917
.. 4.61
1922
.. 3 81
1927
2 90
1908
9 21
1913
1 03
1918
2 91
1923
6 07
1928
1909. . .
.. 3.68
1914...
. 3.43
1919...
,. 8.92
1924........
.. 2.84
23 See Outlook, July 4, 1908, vol. 89, pp. 513-514.
[ 423 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
1929 a new decline has set in. These fluctuations are presented graphically
in Figure 3.
The shift in the subjects of these magazine articles, from topics related
to the assault on the legalized liquor traffic to topics revolving around
prohibition and bootlegging, is shown in Table 21.
ARTICLES PER 1.000 INDEXED
12
10
\
1905 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 1l '12 '13 "14 '15 '16 '17 *I8 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 1931
FIG. 3. — Prohibition and liquor problem articles per 1,000 indexed in Reader's Guide,
1905-1928.
Shifting Ratios of Wet Versus Dry Opinion in Magazines. — More
significant than the changes which have occurred in the amount of
discussion have been changes in the relative frequency with which
attitudes favorable and unfavorable to prohibition have been expressed.
In order to get reliable information on this aspect of the problem, two
separate investigations were carried through.
The first was made by William B. Mills under the direction of the
author. By impartial sampling methods, he selected articles related to the
liquor question.24 The total number of attitude indicators noted by Mills in
24 The articles were taken from the following periodicals: Atlantic for March, 1905,
November, 1915 and February, 1930; Arena for February, 1905; Collier's for January 18,
1930; Commonweal for August 27, 1930; Harper's for January, 1930; Independent for Febru-
ary 2, 1905 and October 9, 1920; Ladies' Home Journal for January, 1915 and April, 1930;
Living Age for May 21, 1915, January 31, 1920 and June 1, 1930; Nation for April 15, 1915,
February 27, 1920 and December 31, 1930; North American Review for December, 1915 and
June, 1920; New Republic for November 13, 1915, April 21, 1920 and June 11, 1930; Outlook
[ 424 ]
ATTITUDES
TABLE 21. — PROHIBITION AND LIQUOR PROBLEM ARTICLES, 1905-1931
(Ratios to articles indexed in the Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932"
Grand total . .
3 23
1 85
4 35
2 81
3 74
5 54
7 96
6 80
4 30
Alcoholism, drunkenness
38
50
60
11
21
18
13
11
12
17
08
34
08
10
09
16
18
16
41
23
29
21
20
56
39
62
59
38
08
05
02
02
05
00
07
04
Temperance
55
34
09
05
02
12
10
25
04
License system, local option, etc.
.45
09
08
02
00
00
00
00
00
Subtotal
£.34
1.32
1.45
.49
.55
1 00
.78
1 23
95
Anti-Saloon League, W.C.T.U., etc
Prohibition (all phases)
.08
79
.03
47
.03
2 83
.02
2 19
.15
2 62
.16
3 87
.08
6 58
.18
4 88
.00
3 11
Bootlegging, moonshining, etc. ;?. . .
02
03
04
11
42
51
58
51
24
Subtotal
.89
.53
2.90
2.32
8.19
4.54
7.18
5.57
3.35
0 July, 1931 to May, 1932.
each of the years studied was as follows: 1905, 175; 1915, 556; 1920,
1930, 467. Using these totals as 1,000 for each year respectively it was
found that the attitudes favorable to prohibition per thousand of all
attitudes noted in articles on this group of subjects were as follows: 1905,
91; 1915, 416; 1920, 359; and 1930, 171. Attitudes unfavorable to pro-
hibition per thousand noted were as follows: 1905, 0; 1915, 22; 1920, 275;
and 1930, 428. In other words, between 1915 and 1930 indications of
attitudes favorable to prohibition decreased more than half and attitudes
unfavorable to prohibition increased 19-fold in these magazines.
Toward the drinking of alcoholic beverages, expressions of favorable
attitudes per thousand noted were as follows: 1905, 0; 1915, 36; 1920, 97;
1930, 150. Expressions of attitudes opposed to drinking were: 1905, 262;
1915, 162; 1920, 68; and 1930, 53. Both with respect to prohibition and
drinking, therefore, the representative articles analyzed by Mills showed
an overturn, from emphatically dry preponderance in 1905 and 1915,
to emphatically wet preponderance in 1930.
In order to obtain an independent check upon these conclusions the
writer undertook a fresh inquiry, confined to a small group of periodicals
which have shown such recent gains in circulation as to indicate that
for March 31, 1915, May 24, 1920 and July 9, 1930; Review of Reviews for February, 1905,
February, 1915, April, 1920 and March, 1930; Sunset for December, 1920; Survey (or
Charities) for August 12, 1905, October 9, 1915, July 3, 1920 and March 15, 1930; World
Today for December. 1905; and World's Work for September, 1920 and November, 1930.
[425 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
they are expressing attitudes acceptable to their constituencies. The
periodicals employed were the Literary Digest, Survey, Forum, Nation
and World 's Work. From these, average indexes of favorable and unfavor-
able attitudes toward prohibition and toward drinking were calculated
for five representative years. The total number of attitude indicators
noted relating to liquor and prohibition, in the selected years, are as
follows: 1914, 1,058; 1919, 1,081; 1926, 1,217; 1929, 2,624; 1931, 1,346.
This second investigation reached conclusions essentially the same
as those arrived at by Mills. Opposition toward prohibition in each
of these periodicals was higher in 1929 than at any of the previous dates.
Opposition to alcoholic beverages had declined in each. But the new
samples show some recession of wet sentiment between 1929 and 1931;
and, whereas Mills' data showed more approval than disapproval of
drinking in 1930, the new samples show disapproval exceeding approval.
By interpolation on curves representing the result of Mills' study,
his data were combined with those obtained by the writer. The resulting
conclusions are summarized in Table 22.
TABLE 22. — PROHIBITION AND ALCOHOLISM: APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL, 1914-1931
(In representative magazine articles analyzed by Mills and Hart)
Attitudes indicated
1914
1919
1926
1929
1931
Toward prohibition and its enforcement:
Approval ("Dry")
211
362
278
226
226
Disapproval (" Wet")
91
224
353
492
457
Toward drinking alcoholic beverages:
Disapproval ("Dry ")
S2s
142
145
102
112
Approval (" Wet")
13
36
43
57
41
Total "Dry"
634
504
423
328
338
Total "Wet"
104
260
396
549
498
Toward religious sanctions in liquor problems:
Approval .
48
46
14
6
9
Disapproval.
22
24
29
10
12
Toward scientific study of liquor problems:
Approval .
75
13
38
17
28
1
o
2
8
14
Toward the liquor traffic, bootlegging and miscellaneous items (where
wet and dry sentiment could not be clearly differentiated)
216
153
98
82
101
Grand total
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
Attitude indicators per thousand
noted
The item on liquor traffic and bootlegging consists almost entirely
of disapproval of the saloon and the liquor business before prohibition
and of bootlegging since. This disapproval, however, was expressed both
[ 426 ]
ATTITUDES
by wets and drys. Before prohibition the attack on liquor interests was
chiefly from the dry forces, though self-criticism by wet organs was
not infrequent. Since prohibition, drys have urged the suppression of
bootlegging and wets have denounced it as an inevitable result of dry
legislation.
Religious sanctions have played a decreasing part in prohibition
discussion. In 1914 church activity in the dry cause was approved twice
as frequently as it was condemned; in 1926, 1929 and 1931 it was criticized
more frequently than it was approved.
Science as a means of dealing with liquor problems was emphasized
twice as frequently in 1914 as at any of the subsequent dates. In 1914,
1919 and 1926 surveys, statistics, laboratory tests and scientific opinions
about liquor problems were referred to with approval in almost every
case where they were mentioned; but in 1929 and 1931 increasing scep-
ticism of the scientific approach was being expressed. These trends cor-
respond, in general, with those pointed out in connection with sex
attitudes, but neither religion nor science are referred to as often in
prohibition discussions as in connection with sex problems.
Some additional light upon trends in attitudes toward drinking is shed
by the Bryn Mawr study of short stories and moving pictures. In the
1900-1905 stories, 16 characters were represented as drinking intoxicating
liquors under circumstances which indicated toleration or approval of
the act and 14 under circumstances indicating disapproval. In the 1931-
1932 short stories no very striking changes had occurred, except that
drinking by women was more customary. The moving pictures, however,
were more than three times as wet as were the short stories of either
period.
Attitude indicators toward drinking per 1,000 noted
Date and group
Total approving
Total disapproving
Approving for
women
1900-1905, magazines
22
19
4
1931-1982, magazines:
"Intellectual"
25
28
5
Mass circulation
36
23
22
24
8
11
18
38
7
1932, movies
83
26
34
V. THE PBE-WAR PEAK OF UPLIFT AND REFORM DISCUSSION
In previous sections of the present chapter it has already been pointed
out that discussion reflecting the campaign against commercialized
vice culminated in 1910-1914 while that against the liquor traffic reached
high points in 1908 and 1915. These two reform movements appear to
[ 427 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
have been closely related with a general wave of discussion about move-
ments to correct economic and social abuses and injustices by means of
legislation and of welfare work.25 This general wave reached its highest
volume of discussion in 1910-1914, falling off after the war to only 55
percent of its maximum height. Topics most closely related to the reforms
involved are listed in Table 23, together with indexes showing the relative
amount of discussion which they received in leading magazines in various
periods, as reflected in the different volumes of the Reader's Guide to
Periodical Literature.
TABLE 23. — CHANGING PROPORTIONS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORM AND ALLIED TOPICS,
1905-1930
(Measured by the ratio of articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1900
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
Total
42.28
48.96
33.71
29.04
28.98
27.22
29.23
* 30
.89
.37
.26
.20
.61
.59
£.33
1.30
.32
.51
.34
.52
.80
4.22
1.75
1.05
.61
.33
.38
.60
Social work, Red Cross, etc
.75
1.36
1.62
2.42
1.42
1.83
2.02
Social settlements and centers
Juvenile and domestic relations courts
.78
.57
.72
.61
.39
.24
.19
.43
.17
.21
.11
.17
.18
.33
Child welfare, etc
1.89
2.58
3.06
3.21
3.52
2.76
2.66
£.43
1.37
1.14
1.03
1.52
1.76
.86
Immigration, naturalization, etc . ...
4.39
4.05
2.46
4.31
4.09
2.29
2.17
Social legislation
.03
.37
.50
.23
.14
.08
.08
Pensions for mothers
.00
.52
.37
.07
.17
.03
.08
Old age pensions
.46
.26
.10
.10
.21
.25
.65
.00
.07
.50
.23
.08
.15
.13
.00
.90
.87
.23
.58
.33
.21
Industrial accidents, employers' liability, work-
men's compensation
Unemployment
1.76
1.14
3.40
.72
1.09
1.35
.94
1.36
.77
1.61
1.37
1.08
1.42
3.52
Unemployment insurance
.11
.15
.10
.13
.43
.55
.44
.26
1.06
.07
.01
.03
.05
.05
1.44
3.25
1.33
.86
.63
.84
1.35
Public utilities
.51
.75
.88
.36
.29
.65
1.14
Income, inheritance and "single" taxes
.74
1.44
.95
.88
.61
.78
.26
2 52
2.06
.85
1.69
1.95
1.16
.89
2.82
3.06
1.12
.78
.86
.89
.39
Woman suffrage, feminism, etc
Progressive party, etc
Eugenics
9.59
.00
.43
11.79
.83
1.42
10.71
.53
.54
6.83
.06
.29
7.37
.54
.29
7.45
.15
.44
7.61
.23
.19
16
1.23
.32
.07
.18
.10
.10
.65
1.05
.88
.95
.44
.44
.28
25 For a discussion of the concepts of public welfare in the fields of relief, penology, mental
disease and child care, see Chap. XXIV.
[ 428 1
ATTITUDES
The Relative Subsidence of Reform Discussion. — Reasons for the
44 percent drop in the relative volume of the topics listed in Table
23 have undoubtedly been numerous and complicated. Certain fairly
obvious factors may be pointed out.
Many of the movements had produced legislation which met more
or less adequately the needs upon which the reformers had been insisting.
This accounts at least partly for the declining discussion of workmen's
compensation, woman suffrage, juvenile courts, mothers' pensions, in-
come taxation and the like.
Other reforms did not fulfill the hopes which their proponents had
built up for them. In the case of prohibition, this brought about a still
larger wave of antagonistic discussion. In other instances the reforms,
while not regarded widely with violent antipathy, were not so successful
as to provide powerful arguments for further reforms. It is suggested
tentatively that this may have been the case with woman suffrage and
other extensions of democracy, with anti-trust legislation and with anti-
vice crusades.
Another factor, probably, was the change from combative reform
psychology to cooperative efficiency psychology shortly after the World
War. This will be discussed more at length in the next section.
The World War probably was influential in various ways, the chief
of which seems to have been in bringing disarmament and international
relations into the forefront. When the 1910-1914 and the 1929-1930
periods are compared, it is found that international problems and pro-
hibition, combined, gained more attention than was lost by topics listed
in Table 23. The relative prosperity of the 1920's is a further explanation.
Table 27 shows the sharp growth of interest in unemployment after the
close of the period covered by Table 23.
The Discussion of Radicalism. — The World War ended with economic
radicalism very much to the fore in Europe. The Bolsheviki had taken
power in Russia. A republican revolution had triumphed in Germany.
The Labor Party was gaining power in Great Britain. Economic radi-
calism was violently discussed in other countries of the world including
the United States. The resulting wave of discussion of radical economic
programs may be seen from Table 24.
Before the World War discussion of these programs for fundamental
economic reorganization held a fairly constant level; between 1919 and
1921, it rose to more than twice that relative frequency; but since 1922
it has remained consistently lower than at any of the pre-war periods.
In sample articles dealing with economic problems in the years
1905, 1914, 1920 and 1930, analyzed by Mills, McGarraghy and the
author, the attitude indicators opposed to communism, socialism and
radicalism in general consistently outnumbered those favorable. In 1914
[ 429 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 24. — RADICAL ECONOMIC TOPICS, 1905-1931
(Number per thousand articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Topics
Articles per thousand indexed
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932=
Government and municipal ownership. . .
Socialism
1.00
3.30
.00
.03
.21
.13
0.74
2.53
.61
.04
.75
.16
0.50
2.62
.07
.11
.23
1.36
1.01
2.79
.19
.77
.89
5.51
0.75
.80
.08
.40
.67
1.53
0.41
.65
.05
.20
.74
1.83
0.34
.44
.00
.21
1.25
1.84
0.25
.34
.04
.15
.65
3.03
0.28
.20
.00
.12
1.07
2.25
Syndicalism
Radicals and radicalism
Communism and Bolshevism
Total....
4.67
4.83
4.89
11.16
4.23
3.88
4.08
4.46
3.92
0 Covers July, 1931 to May, 1932.
a total of 226 attitude indicators on these topics were noted, of which 218,
or 96.5 percent were conservative; in 1920 a total of 124 were noted,
of which 115, or 92.7 percent were opposed to these radical programs.
After the war the railroads were returned to private ownership. The
socialist vote dropped to low levels. It happens that Harding, Coolidge
and Hoover each expressed their views on these issues in magazine articles
shortly after the war and their statements each express emphatic and
fundamental repudiation of radicalism.
Communism regained part of its old hold on popular interest in 1930-
1931 but the period from July, 1931 to May, 1932 showed a renewed
decline of articles on this subject, in spite of the fact that economic condi-
tions have become increasingly acute.
The question has been raised whether this decline in the discussion
of communism has not represented merely a shift of attention from
radical theory to actual conditions in Soviet Russia. To check this point,
analysis has been made of the articles indexed in the Reader's Guide
under the headings "Russia — Commerce, Economic Conditions, Eco-
nomic Policies, Industries and Resources. " The numbers of entries under
these heads, per thousand indexed, have been as follows: 1905-1909,
0.35; 1910-1914, 0.07; 1915-1918, 0.53; 1919-1921, 1.40; 1922-1924, 1.26;
1925-1928, 0.51; 1929-1930, 0.65; 1930-1931, 3.37; 1931-1932, 2.53. It
will be noted that the trend of these figures, like that of " Communism and
Bolshevism," reached a peak in 1919-1921, relapsed, and rose to a new
peak in 1930-1931, with a decline again in 1931-1932. But whereas the
communism curve was lower in 1930-1931 than in 1919-1921, the Russian
Economic Conditions curve was more than twice as high as before and
had outstripped communism as a subject of magazine attention.
[ 430 ]
ATTITUDES
VI. THE PEAK OF SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION
In Europe the struggle between capital and labor was carried forward
by governments sympathetic to labor to the point of increasing the
taxation upon the wealthy, extending greatly the systems of social
insurance which mitigated the inadequacies of workmen's incomes and
enforcing by legislation reduction of hours and other improvements
in the status of labor. The United States also had adopted income taxes
with progressively higher rates for the wealthy and had employed the
principles of social insurance in its allotments to the dependents of
soldiers. Just after the war, discussion of taxation was overwhelmingly
antagonistic toward the high rates being paid by corporations and
recipients of large individual incomes. These rates were reduced. Dis-
cussion of social insurance, which had been exceedingly active in the
reform period before the war, dropped to less than half its former impor-
tance. The trend of discussion may be summarized somewhat figuratively
by saying that America repudiated the policy of forcing a more equal
division of the social income and adopted instead the policy of trying
to increase the total amount of the national income by applying scientific
methods under the leadership of the captains and generals of industry.28
The Era of Employer Leadership. — Some of the topics under which
the new interest in applying science to business and industry was ex-
pressed are shown, with their changing discussion volumes, in Table 25.
TABLE 25. — SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT AND KINDRED ARTICLES, 1905-1930
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Quide) «*
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
Total.. . .
4 24
7 95
13 28
13 57
12 87
11 26
9 73
Scientific management, efficiency, etc.-ivji. . . .
1 84
2 88
5 57
5 86
3 89
2 78
2 36
Sales, salesmen, credit, purchasing, etc.
1 38
3.58
6.17
5 82
6 46
5.75
4.66
1 02
1 49
1 54
1 89
2 52
g 73
2 71
Attention given to these business efficiency topics in Reader's Guide
articles has dropped off to 72 percent of what it was in 1919-1921 but
it is still over twice what it was in 1905-1909. The passing of the peak
of discussion in general magazines does not mean that American industry
has ceased to believe in efficiency. The wave of popular discussion has
left two lasting effects. First, it has probably helped to bring changes in
26 For a discussion of these topics, see Chap. XVI.
F 431 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the equipment, the organization, the habits and the attitudes of business
and industry. While those changes were taking place they were news.
Alterations in the culture fabric always stir up emotional energy which
tends to produce discussion. After new action patterns and machinery
have been adopted and assimilated they cease to be exciting. A second
lasting result has been the development of a group of new periodicals,
specializing in business and industrial efficiency. The problems to be
discussed become increasingly technical when the obvious improvements
have been adopted and the obvious problems cleared up. Our present
epoch is characterized by intellectual specialization. Waves of popular
interest develop whole new fields of investigation and thought which
create for themselves new channels of expression and discussion.
For seventy-eight industrial and business periodicals, each of which
has had over 5,000 circulation at one time or another, it has been feasible
to get consecutive circulation data. The list includes periodicals started
before as well as those started after 1900, and those discontinued before
1930 as well as those still continuing.27 The total circulation of these 78
periodicals in even thousands, as reported in Ayer's for the succeeding
years, have been as follows:
1900 262,000
1905 454,000
1910 585,000
1915 640,000
1920 887,000
1925 1,227,000
1930.. 1,255,000
The total circulations more than doubled between 1900 and 1910 with a
marked slowing down in 1915; after the war the development of the
scientific management epoch brought an even more spectacular growth
reaching its maximum in the late twenties.
Shifts in the Discussion of Labor Relations.28 — Relations between
employers and employees have been discussed from viewpoints which
appear to have been related to changing attitudes reflected in Tables 23
and 25. In 1910-1914, when attacks on the trusts were at their height
and when demands for justice and equality were being emphasized in
economic discussion, articles about strikes were at their maximum
frequency. In subsequent volumes, articles about arbitration and about
trade agreements attained their peaks. Then in 1919—1921, when scientific
management was most widely discussed, scientific personnel work also
27 Among the periodicals included are the Aero Digest, American Banker's Association
Journal, American Builder and Building Age, the American Machinist, Barron's, Burrough's
Clearing House, Business Week, Dun's International Review, Electrical World, Engineering
News-Record, Factory and Industrial Management and Manufacturing Industry, Forbes,
Industrial Engineering and Machinery, Magazine of Wall Street, National Electric Light
Association Bulletin, Power, Printer's Ink, Radio Digest, and a large number of periodicals
of similar types.
28 On trends in labor relations, see Chap. XVI.
[ 432]
ATTITUDES
came to the fore. Indexes for topics related to these changes are shown
in Table 26.
TABLE 26. — ARTICLES ON LABOR RELATIONS AND ALLIED TOPICS, 1905-1930
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
Total
10 74
13 64
15 78
25 93
18 88
15 70
15 37
Employees and laboring classes
Trade unions, etc
2.83
8 05
2.48
S 185
3.38
2 86
7.06
3 20
4.79
2 23
3.27
2 52
3.60
2 44
Strikes . ..
51
IS 36
1 15
1 70
1 98
1 63
1 32
Arbitration and conciliation .
32
63
64
36
35
34
18
Trade agreements
Industrial relations ;
.39
.00
.25
.05
.27
.69
.96
2 40
.31
85
.31
61
.52
60
Wages
85
1 09
1 16
2 29
S 00
2 19
2 64
69
1 02
1 08
96
1 25
74
1 11
Employment management
00
00
44
IS 05
81
91
70
Employment systems
00
12
1 02
81
20
21
10
Premium wage systems
Industrial and labor education
.26
1.35
.65
.82
.58
1.87
.67
1.14
.44
1 38
.34
1 04
.47
47
Industrial diseases and hygiene
.20
.51
.44
.43
.51
.57
.68
27
38
58
37
24
29
23
Employee representation in management, etc.. . .
.02
.03
.12
1.53
.54
.73
.31
The totals of Table 26 follow the same general curve as those of
Table 25, namely, an increase of more than 100 percent between the 1905-
1909 and the 1919—1921 periods, with a decline of about one-third by
the end of the series.
In relation to the changing attitudes apparently reflected in the
above tables it is significant to observe that strikes and lockouts have
decreased during the past 12 years to less than one-fifth their former
frequency. According to United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reports
the average numbers of strikes and lockouts per year, by three year
periods since 1916, have been as follows:
1916-1918 3.864
1919-1921 '. 3,142
1922-1924 1,305
1925-1927 1,023
1928-1930 . . 702
VII. DISCUSSION BELATED TO BUSINESS DEPRESSION AND
PROSPERITY
29
Changes in the relative number of articles on topics related to the
ups and downs of the business cycle are shown in Table 27, and in Figure
29 For an analysis of recent business cycles, see Chap. V.
[ 433 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ARTICLES PER 1.000 INDEXED
26
24
22
20
16
14
12
10
I
1905 '06 '07 '03 '09 '10 'II '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27
FIG. 4. — Unemployment and business conditions: articles per 1,000 indexed in the Reader's
Guide, 1905 to May, 1932.
TABLE 27. — ARTICLES ON UNEMPLOYMENT, BUSINESS CONDITIONS, PRICES AND THE LIKE,
1905-1932
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Topics
Articles per thousand indexed
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
1931-
1932«
Total
6.05
6.21
4.62
5.96
5.22
4.45
10.08
20.02
22.41
Business cycles, depressions, panics.
1.61
.00
1.42
.87
.90
.11
1.14
1.02
.00
.63
2.19
1.50
.15
.72
.91
.00
.97
.41
.88
.10
1.35
1.22
.00
.26
1.32
1.67
.13
1.36
1.10
.03
.15
.86
1.04
.43
1.61
1.14
.07
.58
.39
.64
.55
1.08
1.86
.16
£.78
.49
.83
.44
3.52
6.61
.22
.47
.65
1.67
1.66
8.74
4.41
.12
.55
.75
1.74
2.41
12.43
Cost of living
Prices
Covers the period July, 1931 to May, 1932.
4. By individual years the total number of articles on the topics listed
in Table 27 per 1,000 indexed, were as follows:
[ 434 ]
ATTITUDES
1905
2 73
1912
7 00
1919
5 19
1926
3 52
1906
3 51
1913
6 66
1920
4 59
1927
4 01
1907
6 42
1914
4 60
1921 .
. . 8 05
1928
6 76
1908
11 54
1915
7.59
1922
7 . 77
1929-1930
10 08
1909
1910
... 5.89
... 8.42
1916
1917
3.59
4.10
1923
1924
5.10
2.79
1930-1931 . .
1931-1932
20.02
82 41
1911...
. 4.38
1918...
.. 3.37
1925...
.. 3.52
Examination of the several topics in Table 27 will show that various
sub-peaks have appeared in each at times of other economic disturbances.
These previous minor heights, however, sink into relative insignificance
in comparison with the volume of discussion which the present depression
has called forth. The proportionate amount of attention given to these
topics in 1931-1932 was nearly twice as great as that for any year preced-
ing 1929.
VIII. INTERNATIONAL ATTITUDE CHANGES AS REFLECTED IN
MAGAZINES30
The World War naturally brought a sudden increase in the propor-
tionate amount of magazine space devoted to international questions.
Not including discussions about the war itself, the number of articles on
international questions, per 1,000 indexed, more than doubled in the
volume of the Reader's Guide covering the war period. Thereafter the
proportionate space devoted to international problems fluctuated on a
level about twice as high as before the war. The data are summarized in
Table 28.
TABLE 28. — ARTICLES ON INTERNATIONAL QUESTIONS AND THEIR CHIEF SUBDIVISIONS
(EXCLUDING THE WORLD WAR), 1905-1931
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topic groups
1905-
1910-
1915-
1919-
1922-
1925-
1929-
1930-
1909
1914
1918
1921
1924
1928
1930
1931
Totals.
12.21
13.31
31.19
26 92
21 73
22.10
26.49
20.21
Preparedness and disarmament
.54
1.01
8.49
3.52
4.54
3.94
6.19
3.59
League of Nations, World Court, etc
1.46
1.37
2.83
8.45
3.17
3.72
3.49
2.82
Reparations, tariff, foreign investments,
foreign commerce, etc
4.79
3 46
4.79
5.12
6.24
5.01
8.34
7.47
5 42
7 47
15 08
9 83
7 78
9 43
8 47
6 33
The Development of Preparedness and Disarmament Sentiment. —
Subdivisions of the first subhead in Table 28 are shown in Table 29. It
will be seen that the outbreak of the World War in Europe intensified
30 See discussion of international relations in Chapter XXIX.
[ 435 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
discussion of these topics. Articles related to preparedness expanded at
first more than pacifism and disarmament topics. But toward the end of
the war preparedness discussion contracted to nearly its old level, while
disarmament and pacifism continued to attract increasing attention.
TABLE 29. — ARTICLES ON PREPAREDNESS AND DISARMAMENT, 1905-1932
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931«
1931-
1932
Total
54
1 01
8 49
3 52
4 54
3 94
6 19
3 59
4 83
U. S. defenses. .
.03
.14
£.59
.08
.15
.21
13
04
12
Conscription, military service
.0*
.15
£.44
.16
.03
.03
.08
15
19
10
£4
19
10
20
08
16
00
68
18
10
76
19
19
14
26
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
64
28
18
25
00
00
00
00
08
09
16
29
12
Militarism .
.11
28
89
.21
.18
07
10
11
25
Subtotal of preparedness items. . . .
.39
.91
6.87
.74
.83
1.26
1.17
.77
1.61
13
10
19
2 41
3 39
1 98
4 50
2 28
2 29
00
00
1 29
26
21
14
31
36
87
02
00
14
11
11
00
03
U
00
00
00
00
00
00
56
18
07
06
Subtotal of disarmament items. . . .
.15
.10
1.62
2.78
3.71
2.68
5.018
2.82
3.22
« The 1930-1931 volume covers the period July, 1930 to June, 1931; the 1931-1932 volume covers July, 1931
to January, 1932.
The volume of discussion on disarmament and peace topics has fluctuated
considerably since 1920 but it has never fallen below seventeen times its
pre-war level.
The topics under which articles are classified, however, are not very
reliable indicators of the attitudes which they express. For example,
an article indexed under "militarism" might be attacking preparedness,
while one listed under "pacifism" might be calling for the imprison-
ment of pacifists. In order to derive a more reliable index of the attitudes
on these and other international questions representative articles on topics
covered by Table 28 were analyzed for selected years. For example, in
21 impartially selected articles on international issues analyzed for the
year 1913-1914 there were noted 137 indicators of attitudes explicitly
favorable to disarmament or peace and 95 explicitly favorable to pre-
paredness and allied interests. The total number of attitude indicators
on these topics for this period was 232; the proportion of disarmament
or pacifistic indicators was therefore .50 and the proportion of prepared-
[ 436 ]
ATTITUDES
ness indicators was .41. In the 11 articles selected impartially from those
published on international issues in 1916 there were noted 322 explicit
indicators of attitudes favorable to disarmament or peace and 524
favorable to preparedness, making the disarmament proportion .38 and
the preparedness proportion .62. Similar calculations for other years
produce the following disarmament proportions: 1918, .83; 1920, .85;
1925, .86; 1928, .70; and 1931, .90. These are indicated by the solid line
in Figure 5.
If instead of taking the number of indicators of favorable and unfavor-
able attitudes toward preparedness, disarmament and allied concepts,
the subtotals of Table 29 are used, it is found that the percentages of
PERCENTAGES
A. PERCENTAGES FAVORABLE TO DISARMAMENT
AMONG ATTITUDE- INDICATORS NOTED RE-
LATING TO PREPAREDNESS AND DISARMAMENT
IN SELECTED ARTICLES.
B. PERCENTAGES ON DISARMAMENT TOPICS
AMONG ARTICLES ON PREPAREDNESS ANO
DISARMAMENT INDEXED IN THE READER'S
1905 '06 '07 08 '09 '10 'II 'IZ '13 -I4 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 'Zl 'ZZ 'Z3 'Z4 'Z5 'Z6 '27 78 79 '30 1931
FIG. 5. — Disarmament — preparedness ratios in magazine discussion, 1905-1931.
disarmament titles are as indicated by the dotted line in Figure 5. A
curve of a shape quite similar to these two is obtained from applying
similar methods to the data recorded by Mills and McGarraghy in their
intensive analyses of seven mass circulation periodicals.
League of Nations, World Court and Other International Government
Issues. — Subdivisions of the second item in Table 28 are given in Table
30.
The Hague tribunal treaties providing for the arbitration of inter-
national disputes and various proposals for international federations
were under discussion before the World War. During the war the idea of a
[437]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 30. — ARTICLES ON LEAGUE or NATIONS, INTERNATIONAL COURTS, ARBITRATION
AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT PROJECTS, 1905-1931
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1900
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
Total
1 46
1 37
2 83
8 45
3 17
3 72
3 49
2 82
League of Nations
.00
00
1 23
7 90
2 36
2 50
1 99
1 05
League to Enforce Peace, U. S. of Europe, etc. . .
International courts
.80
.12
.13
.18
1.20
.18
.34
16
.12
63
.20
72
.65
62
1.30
40
54
1 06
22
05
06
30
23
07
League to Enforce Peace and other suggestions looking toward inter-
national government came to the fore. The agitation reached its height in
the presidential campaign of 1920 when ratification of the Versailles
Treaty and of its League of Nations Covenant was an outstanding issue.
After this question was decided, discussion receded to about twice its pre-
war level, recovered somewhat, and again declined. Discussions of the
League of Nations were less frequent in 1930-1931 than in any period since
the topic began to be indexed.
In the articles intensively analysed the proportions of opinion indi-
cators which were favorable to the League of Nations, the World Court
or other forms of political and legal cooperation between nations are as
follows: 1913-1914, 0.81; 1916, 0.77; 1918, 0.78; 1920, 0.66; 1925, 0.69;
1927-1928, 0.60; and 1931, 0.78.
It will be noted that the isolationist sentiment expressed in these
magazines has been consistently lower than the sentiment expressed in
favor of cooperation with international political activities and organiza-
tions. In spite of this fact, the United States has not joined the League nor
(at the date of writing) adhered to the World Court. In this connection it
must be remembered that both parties in the 1920 campaign avowed belief
in some sort of international organization to promote peace. Harding
repudiated not the general idea of a league, but the specific League of
Nations Covenant. On the other hand, it must be recognized that Reader's
Guide periodicals express chiefly the attitudes current among the more
highly educated portion of the population, and cannot be accepted as an
accurate gauge of the voting sentiment of the general public. This
applies also, of course, to attitudes discussed in this chapter relating to
religion, prohibition and other questions, as pointed out earlier.
Rather closely related to topics in Table 30 but not specifically involv-
ing international government, are the subjects dealt with in Table 31
which itemizes the third subtopic in Table 28.
[ 438 ]
ATTITUDES
TABLE 31. — FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND GENERAL INTERNATIONAL
TOPICS, 1905-1931
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
Total
5 42
7 47
15 08
9 83
7 78
9 43
8 47
6 33
Internationalism, nationalism, etc. . .
02
25
1 15
1 16
98
1 37
1 52
1 48
International law and relations; treaties
U. S., foreign relations
.50
1 74
.68
3 88
2.05
6 96
.57
4 81
.75
2 04
.97
3 38
1.01
2 56
1.05
1 81
Diplomatic service etc. . . .
1 25
81
85
67
80
34
36
40
Freedom of the seas
00
00
54
28
03
08
78
00
Neutrality
11
23
82
01
03
07
13
00
Imperialism, colonies, etc
Latin America, Mexico and the U. S
.98
.00
.29
.11
.88
.40
.39
.93
.16
49
.51
64
.36
.39
.10
33
Intervention
01
14
00
00
00
05
16
07
Monroe Doctrine
23
66
45
26
41
18
21
04
Pan-Americanism
Europe and the U. S
.23
00
.16
00
.50
00
.14
04
.40
1 21
.54
82
.21
47
.40
47
32
24
48
57
46
33
03
07
Extraterritoriality
03
02
00
00
02
15
28
11
Economic Aspects of International Relations. — While magazine dis-
cussion of the League of Nations had ebbed in 1930-1931 to a point
lower than in any previous period since the project was launched, repara-
tions, the tariff and foreign investments were so prominent that economic
aspects of international relations received more magazine space from
1929 to 1931 than at any time since 1905. Details of these changes are
presented in Table 32, which shows the ratio of articles on these subjects
to all articles indexed in Reader's guide.
TABLE 32. — ARTICLES ON ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 1905-1931
(Ratio to all articles indexed in Reader's Guide)
Articles per thousand indexed
Topics
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
Total
4.79
3.46
4.79
5.12
6.24
5.01
8.34
7.47
Reparations
00
00
00
1 85
2 97
.90
2 43
94
War debts . ....
00
00
26
54
1.14
2.23
.52
74
Tariff, etc
4-46
2 94
2.46
1.11
1.61
1.27
4.22
4.99
Foreign commerce
.33
.52
1.85
1.47
.47
.35
.78
.51
Foreign investments
.00
.00
.22
.15
.05
.26
.39
.29
[ 439
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
DC. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Reader's Guide Summary. — Some of the topics discussed in the
present chapter received their greatest relative attention in magazines
indexed in the Reader's Guide in the period before the World War, or
TABLE 33. — GENERAL SUMMARY OF TOPICS ANALYZED IN THE Reader's Guide, CLASSIFIED
ACCORDING TO PERIODS IN WHICH GREATEST RELATIVE MAGAZINE ATTENTION
OCCURRED, 1905-1931
Topics
Articles per thousand indexed
1905-
1909
1910-
1914
1915-
1918
1919-
1921
1922-
1924
1925-
1928
1929-
1930
1930-
1931
22.0
9.0
12.7
18.5
19.7
2.5
5.2
9.6
2.8
.4
.2
4.5
5.4
.4
18.5
7.9
10.5
23.1
14.6
6.6
7.5
11.8
4.0
1.4
1.2
6.2
7.5
.9
16.3
5.2
7.9
19.7
10.6
3.5
4.0
12.2
3.9
6.7
19.3
13.0
1.8
3.8
11.4
4.7
7.0
10.5
11.8
2.0
3.5
15.7
7.1
8.9
14.9
10.4
2.3
3.4
12.5
7.2
7.3
15.6
10.2
2.6
3.6
11.3
6.3
.8
Philosophy
"Pure" science
Electric railways, telephones, telegraphs,
automobiles, airplanes, etc
Poverty, charities, immigration, etc
Workmen's compensation, mothers' pen-
Trusts, taxation, etc
Other political reforms
1.6
.5
.3
4.0
15.1
6.9
.8
.3
.1
3.3
9.8
.7
1.4
.3
.2
3.4
7.8
.8
1.0
.4
.1
5.3
9.4
1.3
.6
.2
.1
5.7
8.5
1.2
Total — peaks, 1905-1918
112.9
1.5
4.7
4.2
10.7
1.8
121.7
1.4
4.8
7.9
13.6
1.2
106.3
2.8
4.9
13.2
15.8
1.2
82.5
8.4
72.2
3.2
87.6
3.7
82.9
3.5
2.8
League of Nations, World Court, etc ....
Scientific management, etc
13.6
25.9
.9
12.9
18.8
9.1
11.3
15.7
10.7
9.7
15.4
9.3
Labor relations
Radio
1.6
29.7
1.9
29.4
2.6
38.8
1.8
30.4
2.5
45.5
2.8
64-9
2.6
48.2
Education. . .
Total — peaks, 1919-1928
55.1
3.2
.1
4.8
.3
4.2
.8
6.0
61.9
1.8
.1
3.5
1.7
4.8
1.3
6.2
84.5
4.3
1.6
4.8
3.6
2.8
1.0
4.6
97.0
2.8
2.8
5.1
3.1
2.5
.6
5.9
103.4
3.7
3.7
6.2
3.1
2.6
1.1
5.2
110.6
5.5
2.7
5.0
4.1
4.1
1.6
4.4
99.5
8.0
5.0
8.S
5.7
4.6
1.6
10.1
6.8
2.8
7.5
7.4
5.6
2.4
20.0
Prohibition, etc
Disarmament, etc
Tariff, war debts, etc
Moving pictures
Family, home, marriage, etc
Birth control, divorce, sex morals, etc...
Unemployment, business cycles, etc
Total — peaks 1929-1931
19.4
187.4
812.6
19.4
203.0
797.0
22.7
213.5
786.5
22.8
202.3
797.7
25.6
201.1
798.9
27.4
225.4
774.6
43.3
225.7
774.3
52.5
Totals covered above
Grand total . . .- -.-
1,000.0
1,000.0
1,000.0
1,000.0
1,000.0
1,000.0
1,000.0
[ 440 ]
ATTITUDES
while it was going on; others came into greatest relative prominence
between 1919 and 1928; still others have been at their peaks of attention
during 1929, 1930 and 1931. Comparison of these three groups of topics
provides a brief summary of the shifts of interest reflected in these periodi-
cals. For this purpose the most important or significant items from the
Reader's Guide material tables have been regrouped in Table 33. An
analysis of sports articles, not presented in the chapter, has been sum-
marized also in this table.
Conclusions. — A study of interests and opinions reflected in leading
magazines and allied sources in the United States since 1900, as presented
in this chapter, indicates the following as the most outstanding trends:
1. Religious sanctions have been largely displaced by scientific sanctions
in discussions published in leading magazines. Applied science has risen
to a paramount position in the intellectual life reflected in periodicals of
opinion. Discussions of education increased to about twice as much pro-
portionate space in general periodicals in 1928 as in 1912.
Antagonistic criticism of the church, of ministers and of traditional
creeds reached a maximum in 1925-1928 in general magazines, and still
exceeds the volume of favorable comment. The leading part in antago-
nistic criticism has been taken by the periodicals circulating among the
more highly educated part of the population; periodicals read by the
great masses of the people reflect a growing lack of interest in rather than
aggressive criticism of religion. Favorable discussions of God, of religion
in relation to science and of the spiritual life reached a new high peak in
1925-1928. Analysis of short stories suggests that even this type of reli-
gion has definitely less grip on the public in 1932 than it had in 1900-1905.
2. Sexual irregularities, easy divorce and sex freedom in general have
recently been approved to an extent entirely unprecedented in 1900-1905
in the channels studied. In magazine articles, challenges to traditional
sex attitudes developed to a maximum between 1925 and 1928. In fiction,
increased tolerance for violations of monogamistic sex mores on the part
of heroines and heroes has been evident for all groups studied but espe-
cially for the "intellectual" periodicals. The wave of approval for sex
freedom appears to have been closely associated with the decline of
religious sanctions for sex conduct.
3. Opposition to prohibition in magazines had increased by 1931 to
five times the amount expressed in 1914. Opinions expressed about drink-
ing had also shifted toward the "wet" side but not so extremely. Drink-
ing by moving picture heroes and heroines is from two to seven times as
frequent as for approved characters in short stories of various types.
4. Discussion of economic and political institutions has shown the
following tendencies, among others: Increasing interest in social uplift
and reform developed in the first two decades of the century. The World
[ 441 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
War was followed, in 1919-1921, by a wave of discussion of socialism,
communism and other radical proposals, but the opposition expressed was
overwhelming. Scientific management, industrial goodwill, low prices and
high wages, service to the consumer and the like, became favorite slogans
from 1915 to 1928. A new and unprecedented wave of discussion of unem-
ployment and business conditions has developed during the present
depression.
5. In international relations, the World War first intensified the agita-
tion for military preparedness, then led to a wave of enthusiasm for
international courts and international government and finally produced
a new and growing demand for reduction of armaments.
[ 442
CHAPTER IX
THE RISE OF METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
BY R. D. McKENziE
A STRIKING phenomenon of population change in the United
States during the past half century has been that which may be
described in general terms as a movement from the country to
the city. Since 1880 the percentage of population classified as urban has
nearly doubled, while that classified as rural has declined proportion-
ately.1 This statement gives only a very rough idea of what has happened.
Urban territory, under the census classification, includes all communities
having 2,500 or more inhabitants. Thus Kenilworth, Illinois, with a
population of 2,501 in 1930, falls into the same group as Chicago with
3,376,438; and Cooperstown, New York, with 2,909, is "urban" as well
as Greater New York with 6,930,446.
More precise results may be obtained by subdividing "urban" com-
munities into nine groups, beginning with those having populations
between 2,500 and 5,000 and ending with those having 1,000,000 or more.
By dividing our urban population into nine or more fractions according
to the sizes of the communities in which it resides it is possible to deter-
mine the relative degree of "urbanization" which prevails. But even
this method has proved unsatisfactory because it does not give a true
picture of the organization of our urban territory. We are coming to
think of the city not only as an agglomeration of people but as a way of
living, with an influence extending far beyond its own borders. It is the
growth of the metropolitan way of living which we now wish to trace
rather than merely the increase of metropolitan populations; and it is
to the tracing and analyzing of this growth that the present report is
largely devoted.
With the increasing ease and rapidity of travel, particularly by motor
car, the large city has not only brought under its sway much territory
that was formerly rural, but has extended its influence far out into
territory that is still classified as rural. Smaller communities within a
wide radius of every urban center have lost much of their former isolation,
provincialism and independence. Even beyond the commuting area, the
city reaches out with its newspapers, radio broadcasts, amusements and
shopping facilities. In this process the character of the city itself is some-
1 For details, see Chap. I.
[ 443]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
what altered. If the suburban and country districts are urbanized the city
is in a degree ruralized. Its people more and more go outside the corporate
limits to live, to spend their vacations and to find recreation. Thus the
city of former days is really being replaced by a new entity, the metro-
politan community, with a distribution of population shading off from ex-
treme congestion to relative sparseness, yet with some uniformity of
character.
Each great city has its sphere of influence. By laying out these spheres
on a map of the United States, according to criteria which will be ex-
plained in the body of the chapter, it is possible to divide the whole
nation into metropolitan regions which economically and sociologically
have greater reality than the several states. Three dimensions would be
required in order to give a clear picture of this metropolitan organization
of the country, for some of our metropolises are regional in character,
some are inter-regional and one or two are international in their influ-
ence. Neighboring metropolises compete for trade and prestige, and the
boundaries between the territories they control may be as fluctuating
and as hotly disputed as though each were an independent principality.
At the same time each is likely to be affected in its life by one of
the inter-regional metropolises, especially New York or Chicago. Each
is increasingly aware of its economic and social unity, yet each tends
to imitate the larger centers culturally. Thus the great cities preserve
many differences arising from their history, their geographical location,
the nature of their population and their sources of livelihood, but they
also tend toward cultural uniformity. National advertising, motion
pictures, and in recent years the radio play a large part in this latter
process. There are also economic influences that cannot be so readily
analyzed.
The metropolitan community is not a static thing, though it has
some characteristics which are likely to distinguish it for a long time
to come. It is a product of development and change and is certain to
develop and change in the future. In this chapter an attempt is made to
measure, in terms of recent trends, the manner in which our urban popula-
tion is concentrating itself, the characteristics of the metropolitan
region, the nature of the growth process within the region, the part
played by regional planning and zoning, and the role of metropolitan
governments.
It cannot be too strongly emphasized that the modern metropolitan
community is practically a new social and economic entity, comparable in
some respects with the city state of ancient and medieval times, but in
other respects unprecedented. The metropolitan region is the child of
modern facilities for transportation and communication.2 These facilities,
2 For elaboration of this subject, see Chap. IV.
f 444 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
have created the situations and problems of social and economic organi-
zation with which the present chapter deals.
I. THE TREND TOWARD METROPOLITANISM
Recent developments in means of communication have so enlarged the
scope of local life that the ordinary individual, in the pursuit of his daily
activities of work and leisure, is no longer confined to a single village,
town or even a city. The modern community usually embraces a number
of centers of different size, each more or less specialized in its institutions
and its services. In other words it is characterized by a geographical
division of labor.
We shall attempt to sketch the rise of this community of multiple
centers, to examine some of the important changes taking place in local
institutions as a result of specialization and differentiation of function
and, finally, to outline a few of the problems associated with this complex
pattern of local activities.
Two outstanding factors in the changing character of the local com-
munity are: (1) the increase in the aggregate population of the community
and the extension of the area within which local activities are carried on in
common; (2) the increased mobility of products and people, resulting in a
wider range of individual choice, more specialization of local services and
a more closely-knit community structure.
Concentration of Population. — Each of the last three censuses has
reported an increasing geographical concentration of population. If the
total population is divided into one-fourth, one-half and three-fourths,
each fraction is found to be contained within an increasingly smaller area,
as Table 1 clearly demonstrates.
TABLE 1. — POPULATION CONCENTRATION AS SHOWN BY THE SMALLEST AREAS* REQUIRED
TO OBTAIN ONE-QUARTER, ONE-HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF THE TOTAL
INHABITANTS OF THE UNITED STATES AT EACH OF THE LAST THREE
DECENNIAL ENUMERATIONS, 1910-1930*
Year
Total
population
One-quarter of popula-
tion
One-half of population
Three-quarters of popu-
lation
Number of
counties
Area
(sq. mi.)
Number of
counties
Area
(sq. mi.)
Number of
counties
Area
(sq. mi.)
1910
91,972,266
105,710,620
122,775,046
39
33
27
23,243
19,270
14,431
312
250
189
264,868
224,944
170,517
1,068
992
862
887,829
856,820
767,403
1920
1930
0 Table is computed on county units; independent cities are included.
6 Compiled from U. S. Census reports.
[ 445 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
This table understates rather than overstates the actual facts of
concentration.3 Counties are grouped according to rank in population
rather than density. This procedure was adopted because the Bureau of
the Census did not compute county densities prior to 1920. Occasionally,
however, a county with a relatively small population has a high density;
consequently, if the table had been based on density, the number of
counties listed for each division of the population might be somewhat
greater, but the number of square miles of territory would undoubtedly
be considerably reduced.
Population in general is moving toward the areas of high density.
In 1920 there were 265 counties4 with a density of 100 or more per square
mile. In 1910 these counties contained 45.1 percent of the total popula-
tion; in 1920, 48.2 percent; and in 1930, 52.6 percent.
Movement toward Deep Water. — There is a significant but by no
means uniform movement of population toward the deep water rim of the
country — that is toward the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the Gulf of
Mexico, and the metropolitan territory adjoining the Great Lakes.
Table 2 presents in summary fashion the facts regarding this population
increase.
TABLE 2. — POPULATION CONCENTRATION IN A ZONE EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES
INLAND FROM THE SEABOARD AND THE GREAT LAKES, 1900-1930a&
Census year
Population within
zone
Percent of total
U. S. population in
zone
Increase within
zone since preced-
ing census
Percent of total
U. S. increase with-
in zone
1900
1910
27,842,288
85,633,796
36.6
38.7
5,495,234
7,791,508
42.1
48.8
1920
43,865,221
41.5
8,231,425
59.9
1930
55 413 567
45 1
11 548 346
67 7
0 Compiled from U. S. Census reports. The table is computed on county units — a list of which is available
from the author on request.
6 The area of the zone is 435,863 square miles, or 14.65 percent of total land area of the United States. It
may be defined as a region approximately fifty miles wide which skirts the salt water rim of the country and
the southern shores of Lakes Ontario, Erie and Michigan.
3 The converse side of the concentration process, as indicated by Table 1, is reflected
in the extent of territory that is declining in population. Out of a total of 2,955 counties
whose boundaries remained unchanged during the last decade (the boundaries of 144
counties were changed), 1,220 had less population in 1930 than in 1920. The combined
population of these decreasing counties constituted 18 percent of the total population of
the country in 1930. This stands in marked contrast to the extent of decreasing area in
1900 when only 368 out of 2,836 counties showed a decrease during the decade and the
total population of these decreasing counties was only 7.7 percent of the population of the
nation. Nor has the recent declining territory been strictly rural. No less than 102 cities
of 10,000 population or more showed declines in population during the last decade as
against 57 cities of this class in the decade 1910 to 1920 and 31 in the decade 1900 to 1910.
4 Independent cities and the District of Columbia are included.
[ 446 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
Population moving toward the deep water rim does not, of course,
spread itself evenly over this broad strip of territory. It concentrates
in the metropolitan centers leaving other sections equally near deep water
to decline. The area contains 540 counties and the District of Columbia.
Of these counties, 100 actually decreased in population between 1920 and
1930 and 195 others had rates of increase less than the national average.
The movement, therefore, is not a mere drift toward open water, but a
migration into metropolitan regions which for various reasons are near
the water.
Points of Concentration. — Population is moving toward the great
cities. Table 3 reflects this movement. The 1930 census lists 93 cities
with populations of 100,000 or more. A number of these are so close to-
gether, however, that they may be considered as parts of the same metro-
politan community. By drawing an arbitrary circle, with a radius of
from 20 to 50 miles, around the largest center in such groupings the
number of metropolitan regions may be reduced to 63.
TABLE 3. — TOTAL POPULATION IN 63 METROPOLITAN ZONES: 1900-1930a6
(Cities of 100,000 or more plus adjacent counties; approximately 20 to 50 miles, depending on size of city.)
Percent which net
Percent which pop-
increase in zones
Year
Total population in
Total population in
ulation in zones
formed of total
United States
metropolitan zones
formed of total
increase in U. S.
U. S. population
since preceding
census
1900
75,994,575
28 044 698
36 9
46 4
1010
91 972 266
37 271 608
40 5
57 7
1020
105 710 620
46 491 835
44 0
67 1
1930
122 775 046
59 118 595
48 2
74 0
a Compiled from U. S. Census reports.
6 Since this table was compiled the Bureau of the Census has published the 1930 report on Metropolitan
Districts (U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Metropolitan Districts, Popula-
tion and Area, 1932), in which 96 districts are outlined, each with a minimum population of 100,000. The 96
districts contained 44.6 percent of the total population of the nation — almost 4 percent less than the percentage
found in the districts as outlined in Table 3.
As this table shows, about half of the population of the United
States at the present time lives within daily access of a city of 100,000
or more. This is approximately the same percentage of the total popula-
tion as was reported in the 1,208 cities of 8,000 or more in 1930, and
only 8 percent less than the total population recorded as urban. The
metropolitan region cuts the population in a different way from the
urban classification of the census, yet it cuts almost as large a slice.
A considerable proportion of the population included in this arbitrary
definition of metropolitan territory would naturally be classified as
"rural" by the Bureau of the Census. But such rural population is prob-
[ 447 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 4. — PROPORTION OF TOTAL POPULATION IN DIFFERENT TERRITORIAL CLASSI-
FICATIONS, 1900-1930*
Territory
1900
1910
1920
1930
Total urban territory
40 0
45 8
51 4
56 2
Cities of 8,000 or more
32.9
38.7
43.8
49.1
Metropolitan zones (Table 3)
36.9
40.5
44.0
48.2
0 U. S. Census reports.
ably more urbanized from an economic and social standpoint than much
of the so-called "urban" population living in small centers remote from
the larger cities.
The Metropolitan Constellation.5 — Large cities seldom appear
isolated. They are almost always surrounded by a cluster of smaller
centers, varying in size, which are economically and socially intertwined.
There are, to be sure, marked differences in the number of separate
political communities that appear around the margins of individual
cities. Geography, industry, and the degree of annexation that has
occurred seem to be important factors in determining the number of
political entities in a territorial grouping of population. But regardless
of political boundaries the same general social and economic forces seem
to be at work in every metropolitan region.
TABLE 5. — INCORPORATED PLACES OF SPECIFIED SIZE IN SELECTED METROPOLITAN
DISTRICTS, 1930°
•a
!
.
•1
Size of place
1
I
£
|
Philadel]
a
o
1
I
St. Louis
Cincinna
Detroit
Clevelan
1
Less than 2,500
112
57
59
43
10
10
27
23
13
24
14
2,500-4,999
49
26
16
25
14
13
4
9
11
5
6
5,000-9,999
49
23
15
14
17
13
8
7
6
4
8
10,000-49,999
48
27
18
7
30
16
7
3
8
5
7
50,000-99,999
8
1
5
1
5
2
1
1
4
2
1
100,000 and over
6
1
2
2
4
2
1
1
1
1
2
Total
272
135
115
92
80
56
48
44
43
41
38
a Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Metropolitan Districts.
Table 5 shows the number of incorporated places located within
some of the main metropolitan districts as outlined by the Bureau of the
Census. But the metropolitan district as delimited by the Census on the
basis of density represents only a part of the area that is economically
and socially tributary to each of these central cities. Had trading areas
6 On rural-urban relations, see Chap. X.
448 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
been used as the basis of calculation the number of satellites for each
of these cities would be greatly increased. The data presented, however,
are sufficient to demonstrate the point that smaller cities tend to group
themselves around larger ones somewhat as planets group themselves
around a sun. They are, so to speak, within its gravitational field. A
general analysis of urban statistics without reference to this fact is apt
to be misleading. Population increases in the group of small cities are
largely in areas exposed to the metropolitan influence. For example,
the 78 small urban centers in the state of Illinois, falling in the 2,500
to 4,999 class in 1920, increased in population 32.2 percent in the decade
1920 to 1930; but 93.4 percent of this increase took place in the 25 towns
of this size that happened to be suburbs of Chicago or St. Louis. Of the
remaining 53 places in this group, located elsewhere in the state, 23
actually decreased in population during the decade. Likewise in Michigan;
in 1920 the state contained 32 towns in the 2,500 to 4,999 class, with an
aggregate population of 117,178. By 1930 the combined population of
these 32 places was 153,538, an increase of 36,360 or 31 percent in the
decade. But of the 32 places 4 were suburbs of Detroit, the combined gain
of which was 34,009 or 93.5 percent of the gross increase.
The location of places incorporated for the first time during the
decade 1920-1930, shows the same trend. The 1930 census records 38
incorporations in Illinois, 26 of which are suburbs of Chicago or St.
Louis; the same census lists 33 new incorporations in Michigan, 22 of
which are suburbs of Detroit; Ohio is credited with 55 incorporations, 29
of which are suburbs of Cleveland. When the new incorporations suburban
to other large cities in these three states are included, practically all the
incorporations during the decade are accounted for.
These are random samplings and may not represent conditions every-
where throughout the country. They indicate, however, the tendency
toward concentration in certain areas and suggest the importance of
taking location into account when interpreting urban statistics.
The Metropolitan Unit. — The essential unity of the central city and
surrounding settlement is generally recognized. For the last three decades
the Bureau of the Census has published population statistics for the
larger cities and their "adjacent territory." No attempt has been made
to analyze the relationship existing between the smaller centers and the
main city but from data furnished in the 1930 Census of Distribution,6
it is possible to show certain aspects of commercial interdependence
within a metropolitan region.7 The 37 communities around Chicago,
having a population of 10,000 or more, make an excellent illustration.
6 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Distribution
(Preliminary).
7 See table and fuller discussion of this subject in the monograph in this series entitled
The Metropolitan Community.
[ 449 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TREND
Twenty-one of these cities are located within a zone scarcely ten miles
wide lying between the outer limits of the political city and a circle with a
20-mile radius drawn from the Loop, or business center. Six fall within
the second concentric zone, lying from 20 to 40 miles distant from the
Loop. The remaining ten are located in a third zone, lying from 40 to
80 miles distant from the Loop. An analysis of the average number of
persons to a store and the average expenditure for food, wearing apparel
and general merchandise in each zone, shows that the central city's influ-
ence gradually tapers off. In the first zone stores are relatively few in
proportion to population, with an average of 102 persons each. In the
second zone this average falls to 69 and in the third to 65. This is a
statistical illustration of the common fact of experience, that the nearer
one lives to a city's shopping center the more likely one is to shop there.
Other data show that the shopping done in the city by residents of
the outlying communities is somewhat specialized. Food makes up 34.1
percent of all retail purchases in the first zone, 26.8 percent in the second
zone, 26.4 percent in the third zone. Residents of the first zone spend an
average of $26.96 on general merchandise and $25.98 on wearing apparel
yearly on their local stores; residents of the second zone, $81.86 and
$52.90 respectively; residents of the third zone, $70.93 and $58.38.
For other things than food Zone I depends to a marked extent on the
shopping area of the central city, whereas Zones II and III, though
obviously not independent of the main shopping center, have gone
further in developing local shopping districts.8
The same tapering off of the metropolitan influence may be shown
by analyses of newspaper circulations, of wholesale selling districts
and of the relations of banks with their correspondents. The financial
functions of a great city may extend for hundreds of miles, or even be
nation wide. More than 60 percent of Chicago's wholesale merchandise
buyers come from distances of 200 miles or less, but more than 12 percent
come 600 miles or more.9 Sometimes the metropolitan influence seems
to jump an intermediate territory and to be strong at a remote periphery.
Thus the banks of Chicago have more than three times as many corre-
spondents among banks between the 1,600-mile radius and the Pacific
Coast as they have in the 800-1,200-mile zone.10 This and other evidence
shows that the Pacific Coast cities are more closely integrated with New
York and Chicago than are smaller points in intervening zones.
8 See discussion of shopping districts in Chap. XVII.
9 "Merchandise Buyers Visits to Chicago" listed in the Chicago Tribune, January 1 to
October 1, 1930, Bulletin from the Business Survey, No. 293, December, 1930 (mimeo-
graphed sheets for the use of Tribune staff).
10 An Analysis of Bankers' Balances in Chicago, University of Illinois Bulletin, vol.
XXVI, November 19, 1928, Bureau of Business Research, College of Commerce and
Business Administration, Bulletin no. 21, pp. 16-17.
f 450 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
Factors in Metropolitanization. — The tendency of population to
concentrate in large metropolitan communities is not wholly due to in-
dustrial development. The processes of concentration have been even
more rapid during the last decade than formerly, although the total
number of industrial wage earners in the country was actually less in
1929 than in 1919. u
The economic and social advantages of specialization and division
of labor seem to apply not only to the production of goods but to most
of our institutions and services as well. The larger the population with
daily access to a common center of institutions and services, the more
specialized and differentiated these tend to become. The individual
has a wider range of selection, the institution or service a basis for in-
creased efficiency. The great cities draw to themselves the leaders in
business, the professions, the sciences and the arts. Concentration
breeds concentration. Functions that require access to numerous or highly
selected customers are possible only in cities. As population concentrates
spatially a hitherto unparalleled degree of economic and social specializa-
tion and diversification becomes feasible. Herein seem to lie the main
"attractions" of the city — attractions which evidently outweigh the
discomforts and wastes of congestion.
The city dweller may not like crowds. He may, however, find it hard
to dispense with the goods and services which crowds make possible.
The dispersion of population toward the outer zones of metropolitan re-
gions is obviously an attempt on the part of the city man to have his cake
and eat it too.
II. METROPOLITAN REGIONALISM
The larger cities of the country are becoming what might be termed
regionally conscious. The mapping of metropolitan regions thus becomes
important. Practically every city of more than 50,000 inhabitants has
sought to delimit the territory which it considers belongs to it by virtue
of proximity and functional relationship. While much of the mapping
is still of a rather arbitrary nature — a sort of random staking out of
territorial claims for advertising purposes — nevertheless there is a
definite trend toward a more careful delineation of regional boundaries
for commercial and administrative purposes. In addition to the efforts
of the cities themselves to define their primary areas of function, numer-
ous national organizations, including the United States Bureau of Foreign
and Domestic Commerce, have sought to divide the country into logical
trading areas and sales territories for different types of economic service.12
11 United States Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures.
12 The Atlas of Wholesale Grocery Territories, Domestic Commerce Series, no. 7, 1927,
was the first attempt of the U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce to delineate
trade areas. Since then the Bureau has conducted a number of important regional com-
[ 451 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In the preparation of such maps a city is always taken as the starting
point and its primary marketing territory is defined in terms of news-
paper circulation, delivery zones, freight differentials, and the like.
A general though obviously imperfect picture of metropolitan re-
gionalism in the United States may be sketched by mapping the areas
dominated by the daily newspapers of the larger cities. This is done
in Figure I.13 The cities selected are the Federal Reserve Banking centers,
main and branch, together with a few additional cities14 included to
complete the picture. The territory assigned to each of the selected cities
is simply the area in which 50 percent or more of the circulation of com-
peting metropolitan papers comes from that particular metropolis. For
example, if a marginal town, A, takes papers from two or more of the
cities under consideration, it is assigned to the metropolitan territory
of the city from which it receives over 50 percent of its total outside
circulation. Only one paper, the leading morning daily, of each metropolis
was considered and the circulation data were taken directly from the
Audit Bureau of Circulations.15 Parenthetically it may be added that
only towns receiving 25 or more copies of a paper are recorded by the
Audit Bureau of Circulations. In order to ascertain change in boundaries
the data were computed for two years, 1920 and 1929.
Figure 1 is presented merely to illustrate a method of determin-
ing zones of metropolitan influence. It goes without saying that the
districts indicated are by no means of equal importance. Moreover, with-
in each of these so-called metropolitan regions there are numerous smaller
cities possessing daily papers that circulate in surrounding trade areas.
Had the circulation territory of local papers been plotted there would
be a series of irregular figures appearing like islands within the present
regions or cutting across their boundaries. The pattern of relationship
of the smaller city to its trading area and to its metropolitan center as
shown by newspaper circulation is too complicated to be dealt with here
but is shown in some detail in an accompanying monograph.
It will be observed that in the mountain region there is an area lying
between Helena on the north and Denver on the south that is labeled
"Chicago." In plotting the newspaper circulation of the cities surround-
ing this area it was found that there was a considerable territory which
mercial surveys in which trade areas have been mapped. Among the non-governmental
organizations that have compiled data on trading areas the following should be noted:
The International Magazine Company (Marketing Division), New York; The J. Walter
Thompson Company, New York; The Editor & Publisher Company, New York; The
Woman's World Magazine Company, Chicago; Major Market Newspapers Inc., Chicago.
13 For another map on a different base, see Figure 1, Chap. XXIX.
14 Milwaukee, Sioux City, Des Moines, Albuquerque, Charlotte and Louisville. This
makes a total of 41 "metropolitan regions."
16 Mimeographed Audit Reports, Audit Bureau of Circulations, Chicago, available to
the newspaper trade.
[ 452]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
received no papers from any of the surrounding metropolitan centers, at
least not in sufficient numbers to be listed by the Audit Bureau of Circula-
tions. On further examination it was found that the towns in this region
received the Chicago Tribune more than any other outside newspaper,
due, perhaps, to the resort character of part of the area and to a carry over
from mail-order days. Consequently this territory was credited to
Chicago.
METROPOLITAN REGIONS IN THE UNITED STATES
AS DEFINED BY DAILY NEWSPAPER CIRCULATION: I92O AND 1929
"••- .'-/../••— <9
O MCTROfOLITAM CCMTCHS . ^
LIM£ t»CLOSt*e ALL CITICS on ro»»srrctim*.
CIBCVL*rtOM FROM StVtH CCNTCK : 1919
eouritoAfiies OF A*£*S rv I9fo. WHEHC BROKC*
""ooes nor APPCAH THC eovwAar HAS HOT MiFrco
FIG. 1.
Metropolitan consciousness was recognized, and undoubtedly stimu-
lated as well, by the procedure of the Bureau of the Census in its prepara-
tion for the 1930 enumeration of metropolitan districts. About a year
prior to the taking of the Fifteenth Census, the Bureau, through the
cooperation of the United States Chamber of Commerce, invited each
city of 50,000 or more to prepare a map of its own metropolitan district
according to specific instructions. Among the factors proposed for the
delineation of metropolitan territory were the following:
Commuting distance, including only suburbs from which not less than 10
percent of the working population commute daily to the central city; power and
light territory served from the central city; the phone service area of the central
city; the territory served by the central city's water supply; the area in which
the daily newspapers of the central city are delivered by the paper's own carrier;
the area served by house connections with the city's sewer system; the residential
membership area of social and athletic clubs located within the central city;
the area of operation of local real estate companies in the surrounding region;
[ 453 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the area covered by daily routes of solicitors, inspectors, and collectors, operating
out of the central city as their headquarters.16
This worthy attempt to recognize the functional area as the appro-
priate unit for recording metropolitan statistics did not meet with com-
plete success. The maps prepared by the different cities failed to
reflect due care in following the Bureau's instructions and the factors
suggested for the construction of maps represented too wide a range of
metropolitan services to insure the necessary uniformity required for
statistical purposes. Consequently in the final tabulation of metropolitan
statistics the Census Bureau was compelled to resort to a more stand-
ardized and on the whole less satisfactory procedure.17
In the 1930 Census the Bureau publishes figures for 96 metropolitan
districts, the aggregate population of which is 54,753,645 or 44.6 percent
of the total population of the nation and 79.4 percent of the total urban
population. The combined area of the 96 districts is 36,577.87 square
miles, the range varying from 2,514.11 square miles for the New York-
Northeastern New Jersey district to 52.77 square miles for the Atlantic
City district.
An interesting feature of the 1930 enumeration is the number of
hyphenated names appearing in the list of metropolitan districts; sixteen
of the districts represent combinations of two or more central cities.
About a third of these combinations were made at the request of the cities
concerned.
The rising consciousness of cities as centers of commercial provinces
is further indicated by the attention given to community advertising. In
1928 the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce made a nation wide
survey of this subject and on the basis of its findings estimated "that the
national bill for community advertising in that year totaled nearly
$6,000,000. "18 Cities advertise to attract tourists, industries and popula-
16 Abstracted from Methods of Procedure in Defining Metropolitan Districts, a mimeo-
graphed circular prepared by the Civic Development Department of the United States
Chamber of Commerce.
17 "The metropolitan districts for the census of 1930 . . . include in addition to the
central city or cities, all adjacent and contiguous civil divisions having a density of not less
than 150 inhabitants per square mile, and usually any civil divisions of less density that
are directly adjacent to the central cities, or are entirely or nearly surrounded by minor
civil divisions that have the required density. This is essentially the same principle as
was applied in determining the metropolitan districts for cities of over 200,000 inhabitants
at the censuses of 1910 and 1920, except that the area which might be included within the
metropolitan district was then limited to the territory within 10 miles of the city boundary.
At this present census no such limit has been applied, the distance to which the metropolitan
district extends in any direction beyond the city boundaries being unlimited so long as the
population density of the area meets the requirement of 150 per square mile." U. S. Bureau
of the Census, Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Metropolitan Districts, Advance
Summary, p. 1.
18 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Advertising for Community Pro-
motion, Domestic Commerce Series, no. 21, 1928, p. 5.
[ 454 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
tion in general. In a community advertising campaign it is customary
for a number of neighboring centers to unite forces and pool budgets.
In such cases it is the regional attractions and resources that are empha-
sized.
The emergence of regional consciousness seems to be a natural out-
come of recent developments in transportation and communication
coupled with their effect upon interregional competition. The expan-
sion of the facilities of contact in the form of the motor vehicle, the
metropolitan press, the telephone, and even the radio has tended to
intensify movement and communication within the local area to an
even greater extent than between distant sections.19 On the other hand
the increasing fluidity of commodities and people is exposing cities
to new conditions making for growth or decline. Unlike the nation as
a whole, which may build tariff walls and set up immigration restric-
tions to meet foreign competition, the individual city, so far as the
domestic economy is concerned, has to meet competition in an open
market. In intercity or interregional competition the larger the popula-
tion group, or in commercial terms the larger the local market, the greater
its competitive advantage. It is not surprising, therefore, that cities are
devoting increasing attention to questions of transportation rates and
routes, which in a sense are to cities what tariffs are to nations. In the
recent hearings conducted by the Interstate Commerce Commission
with respect to suggested modifications of the freight rate structure in
the middle western states — Western Trunk Line Territory — no less than
" 12,500 pages of testimony were taken and approximately 1,200 exhibits
containing more than 12,000 pages were received."20
Margins of the Metropolitan Community. — The central city casts
its influence over surrounding settlements in the form of traffic zones.
This influence goes as far as distance and competition will let it. The
boundaries, of course, are seldom definite stable lines which can be
graphically shown on a map. They are rather, as has already been shown,
tapering zones of influence which vary with changing conditions of trans-
portation and competition.
Two terms have come into common usage to designate areas of com-
munity influence: "metropolitan district" and "trade area." The term
metropolitan district has come to signify the territory in which the daily
economic and social activities of the local population are carried on
through a common system of local institutions and services. It is essen-
tially the commutation area of the central city and tends to correspond
with the "built-up" area in which public services such as water, light,
sanitation and power become common problems.
19 See Chap. IV.
20 U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission, Reports, vol. 164, no. 17,000, May, 1930, p. 14.
f 455 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The second concept, trade area, is used to designate a more ex-
tended territory of city influence. The term does not lend itself to precise
definition, for different economic functions have different zones of
influence. For practical purposes, however, a city's trade area may
be defined in the words of John W. Pole, Comptroller of the Currency, as
"The surrounding geographical territory economically tributary to a city
and for which such city provides the chief market and financial center. "21
Trends in the Size of the Commutation Area. — For the few cities
having railroad commutation service it is possible to gain some conception
of the trend in the volume and range of commutation traffic. Accord-
ing to the statistics published by the Interstate Commerce Commission
there has been relatively little change in the total commutation traffic
on Class I railroads during the nine-year period, 1922-1930, the time
interval for which statistics are available. The volume of traffic, measured
in terms of revenue passenger miles, increased about 8 percent in this
interim and the average length of journey, as indicated by miles per
passenger per road, increased from 14.28 to 15.20 miles.
Of course the recent expansion of the metropolitan community is
primarily a product of motor transportation. With the exception of a few
cities of over a million population there has been a persistent decrease
since 1920 in the number of revenue passengers carried by street railways
and a correspondingly rapid increase in the use of buses and private auto-
mobiles. Statistics prepared by the American Electric Railway Associa-
tion show that in seven cities between 500,000 and 1,000,000 there was a
decline of 10.4 percent in the number of revenue passengers carried on
street railways from 1920 to 1929, and in 34 cities in the 100,000 to 500,-
000 class the decline was 27.6 percent.22 The data are not available for
cities under 100,000 but it is reasonable to suppose that the decline in the
use of the street railway would be even greater in these small places.
According to figures published by the National Association of Motor
Bus Operators there were in December, 1930, 222 cities of over 10,000
entirely dependent upon motor transportation.23
It is difficult to measure the radius of the motor city. Extensive
studies of motor traffic made by the United States Bureau of Public
Roads, though not pertaining directly to cities, suggest that the aver-
age distance of the local motor trip is relatively short.24 Various cities
have prepared maps showing the flow of motor traffic at different points
along arterial highways. Such maps invariably show a rapid tapering
21 United States Daily, January 3, 1931.
22 Compiled for Miller McClintock, Director, The Albert Russel Erskine Bureau,
Harvard University, for a chapter on Trends in Urban Traffic which will appear in the
monograph relating to this report.
23 Bus Facts for 1931.
24 For additional data, see Chap. IV.
f 456 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
off of traffic beyond a ten or fifteen mile radius from the central business
district. Certain cities, however, claim a considerable group of daily
commuters coming distances ranging between 20 and 40 miles.
The small cities of the nation are tending either to become suburban
to nearby larger centers or, if remote from large cities, to assume the
role of embryonic metropolises to surrounding villages. The comparatively
high rates of population increase in the small cities of the agricultural
states in the west north central division suggest the influence of the
motor car and paved highway on the extension of their tributary territory.
In the seven states25 comprising this census division there were, in 1920,
55 cities in the 10,000 to 50,000 class.26 The combined increase of these
cities by 1930 was 17.6 percent as against only 6 percent for the region as
a whole.
Trends in the Size of the Trade Area. — Important changes are taking
place in the marketing territories of most cities. The retail shopping
areas of the larger cities, as measured by the daily free delivery service
of central stores, have expanded greatly in recent years. It has become
common practice for the larger stores throughout the nation to deliver
their merchandise regularly within a radius of 30 to 50 miles. City
department stores report not only an extension of their delivery systems
since 1920 but also an increasing volume of trade from outlying territory.
Some stores provide free telephone service to their suburban customers
and some rebate fares, depending on distance traveled and volume of
purchases. The outward movement of the higher economic elements of
the population has been an important factor in the extension of the
market areas of department stores. Several stores report a falling off of
business within the inner zones ; others report that the volume of the close-
in business has been maintained largely as a result of the increase in the
hotel and large apartment trade.27
Counter to the tendency toward increasing centralization as indicated
by department store delivery practice is the rise of the chain store system
of retailing, characterized by the centralization of management and
warehousing functions in the regional city and the delivery of merchandise
to towns and villages located within convenient trucking distance.28 In
either case the city casts its dominance over surrounding settlement and
changes the interrelationships of nearby centers.
The enlargement of the marketing territory of the larger cities does
not imply that the city's trade area is merely a magnified reproduction
of that of the small town. It represents rather the tendency toward
greater specialization and division of labor among the different centers
26 Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas.
28 Data supplied by P. K. Whelpton, Scripps Foundation.
27 Based on replies to a questionnaire sent to a selected list of department stores.
28 On chain stores see Chaps. V and XVII.
[ 457 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
located within easy access of a large city. The increasing economic
unity of the metropolitan region is chiefly the result of a transformation
that is taking place in the field of marketing. The small town is yielding
many of its more specialized services to the city, while in turn it is ac-
quiring new services such as the chain store and the motion picture
theater. The role of the small center in the retail marketing complex is
summarized in Domestic Commerce thus :
The Census of Retail Distribution offers, for the first time, a means of accu-
rately determining the position of the small town and the country store as outlets
for various types of goods as compared with larger cities. By studying the figures
for the state of California, the only complete state released to date, we find 37
percent of the population located outside of the cities of over 10,000 population,
but only 32.7 percent of the State's stores and 21.8 percent of total sales.
The extent to which residents of small towns go to the larger cities for apparel,
furniture and household goods, and items sold through department or general
merchandise stores is evident in that such outlets in the small towns do only 7.7
percent, 11.65 percent and 15.2 percent respectively of the total business done by
these types of stores in the state.29
The general trend in wholesaling seems to be toward concentra-
tion and specialization. The small wholesaling center is surrendering
most of its specialized trade to the regional city. The regional city in
turn depends upon the larger metropolis for much of its specialized
merchandise. The tendency toward hand to mouth buying works in favor
of the regional city as against the larger but more distant metropolis
especially with reference to staples. On the other hand, the large city,
by giving increasing attention to overnight delivery by fast trucks and
package rail freight, is succeeding in maintaining its wholesale function
over a wide range of territory. In general, however, the tendency for
regional cities seems to be toward smaller wholesale territories and more
intensive coverage. This doubtless reflects the concentration and regional
organization of population. An analysis of reports from 39 wholesale
dry goods houses in the Gulf Southwest during the period from 1924 to
1928 showed a decrease in territory covered in the cases of 28 firms, while
11 reported increases. Of the firms doing over $1,000,000 worth of busi-
ness a year, six were covering more territory in 1928 than they had
covered in 1924 and 12 were covering less.30
The Motor Truck as a Factor in Economic Regionalism. — Modern
economic regionalism is basically a product of motor transportation. As
the passenger car determines the scope of the social community, so the
truck is becoming the chief factor in determining the dimensions of the
economic region. The truck is rapidly assuming a major role as a con-
29 June 20, 1931, vol. VII, no. 18, p. 199.
30 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Edward F. Gerish, Distribution of
Dry Goods in the Gulf Southwest, Domestic Commerce Series, no. 43, 1931, p. 7.
[ 458 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
veyor of local freight. Being a more flexible carrier than the railway
as regards unit load, service and routes, the motor truck tends to stimu-
late more intensive exploitation of regional resources and to establish
a more direct and immediate relationship between the central city
and surrounding settlements.31
It is difficult to get reliable information regarding the trucking
radius of a metropolitan center. Many factors are involved such as the
location of cities, the character and volume of freight, the condition
of the highways and the like. It is generally conceded, however, that the
motor truck is still primarily a short haul agency of transportation.
"Truck traffic on rural highways," reports the United States Bureau
of Public Roads, "is predominately a short haul movement. While only
about 6 percent of all trucks travel less than 20 miles per day; 15.5 per-
cent travel from 40 to 59 miles; and 13.8 percent from 60 to 79 miles per
day. Nearly 50 percent of all trucks, therefore, travel less than 80 miles
per day, while 58.3 percent travel less than 100 . . . While 80 miles
is not usually considered a short distance, it must be remembered that
this distance is the mileage per day on rural highways, and that it usually
represents one or more round trips from origin to destination."32
The truck is still basically a private rather than a common carrier
and as such the practice is to operate within a radius that may be served
conveniently within a working day including return to point of origin.
"One large cartage company in Chicago, for example, offers a daily
delivery to retailers in 125 cities or towns on 8 routes within a radius
of 30 or 40 miles. Its delivery zone is limited by the distance a driver can
cover and still get back to the Chicago headquarters within a normal
working day."33 This may be taken as typical of the trucking radius
within the metropolitan area especially with reference to merchandise.
But the motor truck plays a dominant role not only in the distribu-
tion of merchandise in the metropolitan region but also in the marketing
of agricultural products. Los Angeles, according to a bulletin of the
Bureau of Railway Economics, affords a glimpse of the division of labor
between railroad and truck:
All of the lemons unloaded at Los Angeles were received by truck. Of the
oranges unloaded, 98.6 percent were received by truck; of the strawberries,
98.4 percent; tomatoes, 98.3 percent; grapes, 97.9 percent; celery, 94.4 percent;
plums and prunes, 90.8 percent; cabbage, 87.1 percent; grapefruit, 79.1 percent;
31 See also Chaps. II and III.
32 Report of a Survey of Traffic on the Federal Aid Highway System of Eleven Western
States, 1930, by the U. S. Bureau of Public Roads and the Highway Departments of Arizona,
California, Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington,
and Wyoming, p. 19.
33 Plimpton, R. E., "The Motor Truck in Distribution," The Journal of Land and Public
Utility Economics, vol. VII, no. 3, August, 1931, pp. 280-281.
[ 459 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
peaches, 74.4 percent; cantaloupes, 69.5 percent; lettuce, 60.4 percent; and sweet
potatoes, 53.3 percent.
Rail unloads exceeded truck unloads at Los Angeles for 5 of the 18 commodi-
ties. Of the combined rail and truck receipts of apples, 94.4 percent were received
by rail; white potatoes, 85.9 percent; watermelons, 71.7 percent; pears, 60.4
percent; and onions, 55.9 percent.34
It will be observed that local products are transported to market
almost exclusively by motor truck, while products coming from a distance,
such as apples and sweet potatoes, are transported by rail.
The Metropolitan Region Comes of Age. — Large cities throughout
the nation are gradually maturing in their commercial and industrial
structure; in other words, they are "coming of age." As frontier condi-
tions pass there is a tendency for each metropolitan area to become more
nearly complete in its economic and institutional structure. In ten out
of sixteen cities listed by Glenn E. McLaughlin35 the number of industries
increased between 1921 and 1927. The decline in certain cities, notably
San Francisco and Pittsburgh, is in all probability due to the migration
of industries into the suburban districts of the region. Diversification
is no longer a characteristic of the larger cities alone but is spreading
to the outlying regional communities. So far as local conditions permit
there is a tendency in each case toward a complete industrial set up.
This tendency is, of course, subject to the limitations of accessible raw
materials and markets as well as the more subtle ones of commercial
and industrial traditions.
Within these limits, however, each large center of population tends
to duplicate the occupational structure of similar centers elsewhere.
This is particularly noticeable with respect to the manufacturing and
mechanical industries. An exception to this rule seems to be the tendency
for persons in highly specialized occupations, such as designers, artists,
stock brokers, to concentrate in New York City. The New York region,
so far as some of these services are concerned, is apparently almost nation
wide.
The proportion of the nation's total bank business which it handles
is perhaps the best single index of a growing city's maturity. Tables
published by The American Banker™ show some striking changes in
this respect between 1923 and 1930. An outstanding feature of these
tables is that whereas New York City had 48.81 percent of the country's
bank deposits in 1923 it had only 32 percent in 1930. Whether the latter
34 U. S. Bureau of Railway Economics, Unloads of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables at Sixty-
six Important Consuming Markets in the United States, 1929, Bulletin no. 39, October, 1930,
p. 11.
36 McLaughlin, Glenn E., "Industrial Diversification in American Cities," Quarterly
Journal of Economics, November, 1930, vol. 45, no. 1, p. 137.
36 January 21, 1924 and January 20, 1931
[ 460]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
figure reflects in part the unusual conditions prevailing in 1930 can
only be surmised. It undoubtedly points to an increase in the financial
maturity of the outlying regional cities. Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston,
Cleveland, Los Angeles, Detroit and Pittsburgh all gained during
the period and San Francisco climbed from 5.94 percent to 10.50 percent.
Oakland, across the bay from San Francisco, disappeared from the
tables between 1923 and 1930, as did Brooklyn and Hoboken, satellites
of the New York financial district. Eight cities — Atlanta, Dallas, Okla-
homa City, Portland (Oregon), Cincinnati, Seattle, Syracuse and Tulsa —
made a showing in 1930, though they were not recorded in 1923.
The economic coming of the age of the metropolitan centers of the
nation, particularly those on the economic frontiers of the south and
west, is unquestionably an important factor in intercity competition
and in the development of regional consciousness. Cities, like nations,
are seeking to develop balanced economies and to protect home industries
and regional markets. There are natural limits, obviously, to this sort
of development. The major industries of the country are still highly
concentrated and, considered from the standpoint of total output, there
seems to be but a slight tendency toward industrial decentralization.
But in spite of this concentration of certain industries, the facts
indicate that there will continue to be more intensive exploitation of
local resources and more effort to build diversified economies on a regional
basis. Thus there is the seeming paradox of regional communities growing
more alike, yet growing also in independence and self-reliance.
III. THE PROCESS OF METROPOLITAN GROWTH
The preceding sections have dealt with the rise of the metropolitan
community as a population group and an economic entity, and with
the interrelationships among such great communities. But certain
changes are going on within the metropolitan community which have
to be dealt with in order to present a rounded picture. Populations as
well as individuals move about within the region, grow old, behave better
or worse, become richer or poorer. The age distribution and sex ratio
may change. The shifts of population from one locality to another within
the city and its surrounding territory have economic and social conse-
quences perhaps as significant as those of the more widely heralded rural-
urban migrations.
The most conspicuous form of population shift within the metro-
politan area is the so-called suburban or "outgoing" movement. This can
be measured in terms of the proportion between the population of the
central city or cities of a metropolitan district, as defined by the federal
census, and the total population of the district. For the last three decades
the Bureau of the Census has published figures for the metropolitan
[461 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
districts of the large cities. The change in procedure, already alluded
to, in defining the 1930 districts would make strict comparisons over the
twenty-year period impossible for the whole 96 districts. Fortunately the
Bureau has adjusted the 1920 data for 85 districts to make comparison
valid. Table 6 shows the results.
TABLE 6. — POPULATION AND PERCENTAGE INCREASE OF 85 METROPOLITAN DISTRICTS
FOR CENTRAL CITIES AND OUTSIDE TERRITORY, 1920-1930, BY SIZE GROUPS"*
Size of districts
Number of
districts
Population in thousands
Percentage
increase,
1920-1930
1920
1930
All districts of 100,000 and over
In central cities
Outside central cities
Districts of 100,000-250,000
In central cities
Outside central cities
85
44
23
9
40,057
28,940
11,117
5,408
3,919
1,489
6,665
4,839
1,825
5,827
4,340
1,487
4,669
2,993
1,675
17,489
12,834
4,655
50,043
34,563
15,480
6,774
4,877
1,897
8,061
5,743
2,317
6,950
4,938
2,012
5,732
3,385
2,347
22,526
15,620
6,906
24.
19.
39.
25.
24.
27.
20.
18.7
26.9
19.2
13.8
85.3
22.8
13.1
40.1
28.8
21.8
48.3
Districts of 250,000-500,000
In central cities
Outside central cities
Districts of 500,000-1,000,000
In central cities
Outside central cities
Districts of 1,000,000-2,000,000
4
In central cities ,
Districts of 2 000 000 and over
5
"Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Metropolitan Districts.
6 Does not include 1 1 metropolitan districts for which comparable figures are not available. These districts
with their 1930 populations are: Chattanooga, 168,589; Houston, 339,216; Jacksonville, 148,713; Los Angeles,
2,318,526; Memphis, 276,126; Miami, 132,189; New Orleans, 494,877; Portland, Ore., 378,728; San Diego,
181,020; San Jose, 103,428; Tampa-St. Petersburg, 169,010.
It will be observed that the rate of increase in the outside territory
of these 85 metropolitan districts is a little more than twice as great as
that in the central cities, and, as would be expected, the rate differentials
tend to increase with the size of the districts. To be sure wide variations
are found in the relative rates of change for different districts, depending
largely upon the practice of annexation. For instance, six of the 1930
districts show an actual decrease in population since 1920 in the territory
outside their central cities; but in all save two, Duluth and Evansville,
the decreases were due to recent annexations.37
37 When a city annexed a complete civil division between the two census periods, the
Bureau of the Census added to the city's 1920 population the population of the annexed
division at that date; but in most cases the annexed territory cut across civil divisions and
therefore was not adjusted by the Bureau. The general effect of this is to reduce somewhat
the actual rates of increase of outside territory.
[ 462 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
The outside population in these 85 metropolitan districts constitutes
30.9 percent of the total and is growing faster than the city proper.
In eleven of the districts the population residing outside the central
cities is greater than that within central cities. In the Boston district
it is over twice as great; in the Pittsburgh district almost twice that
of the central city. Of course it is not claimed that the proportion of
the population of a census metropolitan district that is found outside
the central city or cities is a measure of the suburban drift. The metro-
politan district, as defined by the federal census, usually represents a
cluster or constellation of communities — villages, towns and cities — with
varying degrees of dependency upon the central city. Some "satellites"
are primarily agglomerations of commuters' dwellings while others are
almost independent cities. Obviously the growth crests in the outer zones
of metropolitan districts, in so far as they are the result of migration
rather than of natural increase, represent the meeting of two opposite
waves of movement — the outflow from the inner zones of the city and
the inflow from outside territory. In a recent survey of Evanston, a
suburb of Chicago, conducted under the auspices of the United Churches,
it was discovered that of the 3,890 families giving information regarding
last place of residence before entering Evanston, 47 percent had come
from Chicago, 7 percent from communities just north of Evanston, and
46 percent from places outside the general region.38
A clearer picture of the drift from the center may be obtained by
a study of the movement of population within the city itself. This may
be done only for those few cities in which enumerations have been made on
the basis of census tracts, or small constant territorial units. By means
of these tracts it is possible to measure the changes of population in
"zones" or belts of territory created by drawing concentric circles from
the city's center. These data are given in Table 7 for New York, Chicago,
Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
Obviously the arbitrary concentric circle is useful only for purposes
of comparison. It does not show the details of expansion, as growth is
usually very uneven in different parts of the territory falling within a
zone. This is particularly true in the outlying sections of the city, where
growth is likely to follow radial lines.
Table 7 shows unmistakably the tendency of the large city to lose
population in its inner zones. It would seem that the outgoing tendency
became somewhat accelerated during the past decade. Each of the four
cities analyzed shows a widening range in which population is declining.
Similar data for other cities, notably Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis
and Detroit, though not directly comparable, tell a similar story. The
38 See Albert G. Hinman, " An Inventory of Housing in a Suburban City," The Journal
of Land and Public Utility Economics, May, 1931, vol. VII, p. 171.
[ 463 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
TABLE 7. — POPULATION CHANGE BY CONCENTRIC ZONES FROM THE CENTER OP THE CITY
OUTWARD, 1910-1930°
(New York, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh)
City
Population in thousands
Percent change
1910
1920
1930
1910-20
1920-30
New York6
4,766.9
2,200.5
1,925.4
567.8
64.5
8.7
1,800.0
2,189.9
359.5
732.3
616.8
281.7
199.6
266.4
571.9
162.7
800.1
88.8
11.6
8.7
53.7
533.9
257.9
235.4
186.0
507.5
5,599.9
2,054.2
2,412.9
1,020.9
102.2
9.7
2,290.4
2,724.2
276.4
736.7
861.0
496.2
353.8
477.2
803.8
162.8
388.5
192.5
45.4
14.7
128.9
588.3
271.9
278.2
220.2
582.4
6,930.5
1,538.0
3,181.3
1,814.2
385.9
11.1
3,082.8
3,343.0
216.0
657.3
969.0
751.5
749.2
829.4
900.4
119.4
372.8
287.7
92.0
28.7
259.6
669.8
253.9
315.1
298.4
732.9
17
-6
25
79
58
11
27
24
-23
1
39
76
77
79
40
0
29
116
290
69
140
10
5
18
18
14
23
-25
31
77
277
13
34
18
-21
-10
11
34
52
73
12
-27
-4
49
102
95
115
13
-6
13
35
25
4-mile zones —
I
II . .
Ill
rv
V
Adjacent territory"
Chicago
2-mile zones —
I
H
III
IV
v
Cleveland
2-mile zones —
1
II
Ill
IV
V
Pittsburgh*
2-mile zones —
I
II
III . .
Adjacent territory8
0 Compiled from U. S. Census data.
6 Data for New York compiled by Walter Laidlaw, Cities Census Commission, New York.
e As defined in U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1920, Population, vol. I,
p. 62. Data for adjacent territory adjusted by P. K. Whelpton, Scripps Foundation. The population of each city
at the beginning of the decade includes that of places annexed during the decade.
d Data for Pittsburgh compiled by Philip E. Keller, Bureau of Social Research, Pittsburgh.
economic depression seems to be causing considerable backwash to these
lower rental areas, but in all probability this is but a temporary cessation
of a general centrifugal process.
The motor car, bringing the country nearer in time, has caused an
unprecedented development of outlying and suburban residential sub-
divisions. While this development pertains to families of a wide range
of income, special attention has been given in the past decade to the
promotion of exclusive residential districts designed for occupancy by
[ 464 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
the higher income classes. The lure of rural scenery is indicated by
the extremely high rates of increase in suburbs bearing names denoting
attractive physical features,39 such as heights, vistas, parks, and water
frontage. Space does not permit a detailed analysis of this development
but a few examples will illustrate the point. Here are some rather well-
known suburbs with their percentage increases from 1920 to 1930:
Beverly Hills, 2485.9; Glendale, 363.5; Inglewood, 492.8; Huntington
Park, 444.9 (suburbs of Los Angeles); Cleveland Heights, 234.4; Shaker
Heights, 1000.4; Garfield Heights, 511.3 (suburbs of Cleveland); Grosse
Point Park, 724.6; Ferndale, 689.9 (suburbs of Detroit) ; Webster Groves,
74.0; Maplewood, 70.3; Richmond Heights, 328.3 (suburbs of St. Louis);
Elmwood Park, 716.7; Oak Park, 60.5; Park Ridge, 207.9 (suburbs of
Chicago).40
TABLE 8. — CHANGE IN LAND VALUES, 1917 TO 1930, AT IMPORTANT INTERSECTIONS ALONG
EUCLID AVENUE,° CLEVELAND
(From the Public Square to Wade Park, a distance of approximately 5 miles)
Locations on Euclid Avenue
Land values6
Change 1917-1930
1917
1980
Actual
Percent
0 TO 1 MILE
At Public Square
$6,000
6,200
5,000
4,500
2,700
2,000
1,800
900
800
1,400
900
600
600
450
500
550
1,000
1,000
2,000
1,000
$11,500
12,500
10,500
8,000
6,500
2,700
1,600
800
700
1,200
525
550
900
450
750
1,000
2,200
3,000
4,675
1,400
$5,500
6,300
5,500
3,500
3,800
700
-200
-100
-100
-200
-375
-50
800
0
250
450
1,200
2,000
2,675
400
92
102
110
78
141
35
-11
-11
-IS
-14
-42
-8
50
0
50
82
120
200
134
40
At East 4th Street
East of East 9th Street
At East 12th Street
East of East 14th Street
East of East 18th Street
At East 22nd Street
1 TO 2 MILES
At East 30th Street
At East 40th Street . ...
2 TO 3 MILES
At East 55th Street . .
At East 65th Street
At East 71st Street
3 TO 4 MILES
East of East 79th Street
At East 89th Street
At East 93rd Street
4 TO 5 MILES
At East 97th Street
At East 101st Street
At East 102nd Street .... ...
East of East 105th Street
At East 107th Street
0 The highest land value side of the street is taken at each intersection.
6 Assessed valuations, compiled by John A. Zangerle, auditor of Cuyahoga County.
39 Too frequently in name only.
40 See discussion of effect of motor car on school and highway taxation problems in
Chap. XXVI.
f 465 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The movement, of course, is not always to sections outside of the
city. This is indicated by the shift of the fashionable residence district
in Manhattan from Riverside Drive to Park Avenue and by the rapid
development of Chicago's Gold Coast and South Lake Shore territory.
The famous Back Bay and Beacon Hill districts of Boston are losing many
of their wealthy families to West Roxbury and Brighton, sections that
have developed rapidly in recent years as high class residential areas.
The movement of the wealthy class in Philadelphia has been largely to
the northern part of the city, particularly to the Chestnut Hill and
Germantown section; notable developments have also occurred in the
PER CENT INCREASE OR DECREASE
f8OO
f i 5O
f 100
1
1
I Ml
1
• • 1 1 •
* 50
o£ ? J: 5 Z £ i f ? ? fj; £ f 8 J fct f f
_i< •*o>«V'tooevj o O m m — e> 9* m t- — w 10 f-
OD - — — N « •* in <D (- t» «0>OV OO O O
FIG. 2. — Percentage change in land value for blocks along Euclid Avenue, Cleveland,
1917-1930.
northeast section. While 34 of Philadelphia's 48 wards showed an actual
decline in population between 1920 and 1930, Ward 35 in the north-
east corner of the city increased 314.4 percent.
The general exodus of the upper economic classes from the inner
sections of the city is creating serious problems by lowering land values
and depriving the city of taxable wealth. The situation is well illustrated
in the changes that have occurred in land values along Euclid Avenue,
Cleveland, following the recent exodus of the wealthy residents from
that street. Table 8 and Figure 2 show in part the effect of this migration.
[466]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
These changing land values reflect the division of Euclid Avenue
into three definite sections. First, extending from Public Square to
East 22nd Street, a distance of about a mile, is the expanded downtown
business area. The second section, running from East 22nd Street to
East 71st Street, was once occupied by some of the wealthiest families
of Cleveland, as a number of surviving mansions, put to various uses,
testify. It is now a zone of decline. In the third division of the Avenue,
from East 71st Street to East 107th Street, a secondary business center
has sprung up around University Circle and values are rising. Here are
to be found some of the best of Cleveland's theatres and shops. Going
still further east one comes to some of the city's most exclusive suburbs.
The history of land value movements along Euclid Avenue could
be duplicated in many radial thoroughfares in other cities in the United
States. The higher income levels of the city's population seek the more
attractive outlying sections; the chain store, the branch bank and the
motion picture theatre follow them, and in the intermediate zones, of
relatively little use to either the downtown section or the outlying
neighborhoods, a trough in land values is created. Motor transportation
and suburban development have accentuated this more or less natural as-
pect of city growth. Large cities everywhere are becoming keenly aware
of the problem of the "blighted area" but little has been done as yet to
cope with it. It is a complex problem involving factors of transportation,
legal rights to property, power of condemnation, and questions of
finance.41
Age and Sex Selection. — Wide differences exist in the age-sex compo-
sition of the population in different sections of the city and in its various
suburbs. As the city increases in size segregation in its various forms —
economic, cultural, biological — seems to become increasingly pronounced.
Attention has frequently been called to the divergent character of sub-
urban communities surrounding a common metropolitan center. It is
commonly recognized that exclusive residential suburbs tend to have more
females than males and less than the average number of children per
family, while in most industrial suburbs the conditions are reversed.
By the use of census tract materials it is now possible to ascertain the
makeup of the population as to age and sex by districts within the city
itself.
An illustration of such a study is shown in Figure 3 prepared by
Charles Newcomb, of the University of Chicago. Newcomb measured
the age and sex distribution for three successive decades in Oak Park,
Illinois, and in six census tracts lying along Madison Street between
Oak Park and the Loop district of Chicago, a distance of nine miles. The
41 See also discussion of blighted area in President's Conference on Home Building and
Home Ownership, Preliminary Reports, VIII, 7, XXI, XXIII.
[ 467 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
tracts selected are approximately 1.5 miles apart. Inasmuch as the popu-
lation of a large part of this area is characterized by a high degree of
mobility it is safe to assume that it has changed many times in the twenty-
year interval shown. Yet the age-sex composition of the respective tracts
has altered only slightly. In each decade an excessive proportion of adult
males is found in the area lying close to the Loop, the main business
center, with a tendency toward a more even age-sex distribution as one
proceeds outward toward the fringe of the metropolitan area. The general
tendency of women and children to withdraw from the central section
of the city is quite apparent. So, too, is the decline in the proportion of
CHANGES IN POPULATION
_£U* BY AGE AND SEX
J IN OAK PARK AND SELECTED CENSUS TRACTS
•H Or CHICAGO FOR l9IO.lflM.IUO
,930 SCRICS
1920 SCRIES
4S TO 10
10 TO 44
fflffl? ;Hr. X iHr ^iK ^^r\
OAKMRK I4t 14» IIS fjf "* LOOP 196
1910 SCRICS
flBT JH^K. "sHr 3B^s THP , ^^5B5s™
/•<« /« 2/4 ?J^ M« LOOPU»
i
!
1 1
1 1 I
—1 1
i i
— i —
g
i
— i
b
8
FIG. 3.
children in the outlying tracts, although in interpreting this fact con-
sideration must be given to the general decline throughout the city in
the proportion of children to adults during the past two decades. Re-
search on a more extended scale and in other cities may well show that
this age-sex pattern is somewhat typical of metropolitan communities.
Delinquency Patterns. — The general wholesomeness of a city's en-
vironment, as measured by delinquency rates, seems to improve with
distance from the main business center. In his extensive studies of juvenile
delinquency, Clifford R. Shaw, of the Chicago Institute for Juvenile
Research, found a definite tendency for rates to decline with distance
from the center of the city.42
Nationality and Race. — American cities have long been conspicuous
for their concentrated colonies of nationality and racial groups. As immi-
grants have poured in from foreign countries and Negroes have migrated
42 See further data on juvenile delinquency in Chaps. XV and XXII.
f 468 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
TABLE 9. — JUVENILE DELINQUENCY RATES BY ZONES FROM CENTER OF CITY OUTWARD*
fitv
Number
Width of
R
ates by zone
a?
L/ity
of cases6
(miles)
I
II
III
IV
V
Chicago
8,141
2
10 3
7 3
4 4
3 3
(d)
Philadelphia
Cleveland
5,856
4,978
1.5
1 5
11.6
18 3
6.8
10 2
4.4
7 8
3.5
7 0
3.4
5 1
Richmond, Va
1 238
1
19 7
12 2
6 4
(d)
(d)
Birmingham, Ala
Denver
990
1,291
1
1
14.1
9 4
6.9
7 1
6.4
4.2
w
8.7
(d)
3.2
Seattle
1,529
1
19.1
9.7
7.6
6.1
(d)
0 This table is compiled from Report on the Causes of Crime, vol. II. Clifford R. Shaw, and Henry D. McKay,
National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement, United States Government Printing Office, June,
1931.
6 The juvenile court records from which the above cases were taken are for the following years: Chicago,
1917-1923; Philadelphia, 1927; Richmond, 1927-1930; Cleveland, 1919-1921; Birmingham, 1927-1930;
Denver, 1924-1929; Seattle, 1926-1929.
c Percentage of boys 10 to 15 years of age in each area brought to the juvenile court on petitions alleging
delinquency.
<» No data.
from the rural south the newcomers have formed colonies within the
cities where they have maintained, as far as possible, their traditional
ways of living. Now that immigration has receded almost to the zero
point43 the question arises as to what will happen to the older immigrant
districts found in almost every city. Not enough time has elapsed since
immigration slackened to give a final answer to this question. A study of
census tract statistics, in the few cities for which data are available for
successive periods, indicates, however, a pronounced tendency for immi-
grants to abandon their colonies and disperse among the general popula-
tion. Intensive studies made in the University of Chicago suggest that
this process tends to occur in a successional manner. First there are the
areas of initial settlement, usually located in the run down tenement
sections near the center of the city and around the plants of the heavy
basic industries; next there are the areas of second settlement, lying just
beyond the zones of the first. In these areas the number of children per
family is higher than is found in most other sections of the city. Finally
there are the areas of third and subsequent settlement, as a rule too
generally scattered to constitute colonies. As the immigrant moves up
the economic ladder he moves out toward the periphery of the com-
munity. In this respect he is not unlike the native Bostonian, who has
been described as a person who was born in the North End, lived in the
South End and died in the Back Bay.
Negro colonies have a somewhat different history. Instead of scatter-
ing they tend with time to become more compact and racially more
43 Emigration exceeded immigration in 1931. See Chap. I.
f 469 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
homogeneous. The pattern of Negro concentration varies too much to be
considered here in detail. In some cities, notably New York and Chicago,
the Negroes congregate largely in a single district; in others, such as
Philadelphia and Washington, small colonies are scattered widely through-
out the city. Local attitudes toward the Negro and local conditions of
employment probably have something to do with these differences.
Ward lines too often cut across racial boundaries to make them satis-
factory statistical units for our present purposes; nevertheless Table 10
gives some conception of how the colored people are distributed within
six large northern cities.
TABLE 10. — CONCENTRATION OF NEGROES BY SELECTED WARDS AND STATISTICAL AREAS
IN Six NORTHERN CITIES, 1930*
City
Total
Negro
population,
1930
Percent
increase
in Negro
population,
1920-1930
Concentration by wards and statistical
areas
Percent of
total Negro
population
of city in
the four
leading
areas of
Negroes
Total
number of
wards and
statistical
areas
Percent of Negroes to total
population in each of the
first four areas of highest
Negro concentration
I
II
III
IV
New York (Manhattan) . .
Chicago
224,670
233,903
71,899
120,066
54,983
219,599
110.9
113.7
108.7
107.7
45.8
63.6
21
75
40
22
32
48
94.1
94.6
72.4
54.7
54.0
70.3
44.6
91.9
70.2
54.6
40.1
35.9
31.7
88.7
58.2
53.8
20.5
29.8
11.7
16.5
42.1
18.9
14.1
16.0
85.4
82.4
78.4
61.5
60.6
30.1
Cleveland
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
0 Compiled from U. S. Census data.
The rapid growth of Negro population since the World War in many
of the northern cities has naturally enlarged the colonies. Expansion
usually takes the form of movement out along radial streets from the
older centers of concentration. For instance, in Chicago where the Negro
population has increased from 109,458 to 233,903 during the last decade,
the "Black Belt" has extended southward from the Loop district to 69th
Street, a distance of nearly eight miles. In this expansion all other ele-
ments of the population have been displaced, the Negroes taking posses-
sion not merely of the apartments but of the churches, theaters, parks
and other institutions.
The Negro and the Oriental tend to build up cities within the city.
They establish their own institutions — theaters, churches, stores, clubs
and dance halls. They come into contact with the general community
life chiefly as employees and through their participation in politics. It
does not appear, however, that the recent Negro migration has greatly
disturbed the natural evolution of the northern cities. They came at a
[ 470 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
time when the outward drift of whites was at its height and though they
may have accelerated the movement in some localities, in many places
they merely took over declining areas.44
Segregation a Characteristic of City Life. — The significance of segre-
gation within the city has long been recognized by social workers and
others dealing with welfare problems. It is being increasingly recognized
by business men and administrative officials as a factor to be dealt with.
More and more it is being realized that a city cannot be satisfactorily
administered as a single population entity. More and more commercial
firms and advertising agencies are beginning to analyze the economic and
racial differences that exist in various sections of the cities and to deal
with each district according to its particular characteristics.
IV. STRUCTURAL CHANGE
As the population distribution within the metropolitan region changes,
so does the physical structure of the community and the way in which
its various institutions function. As motor transportation permits the
population to spread outward, the basic services follow it. All the public
utilities — streets, water mains, sewerage facilities, electric lighting, gas
and telephone services — show rapid rates of expansion in metropolitan
regions within the past decade. This factor may be indicated by the
expanding area of street pavement, which generally carries with it the
services mentioned. In 201 cities studied by Arthur H. Redfield45 during
the years 1925 to 1929 inclusive a total of 261,133,000 square yards of
pavement were laid, the average laid each year increasing until 1927
and declining somewhat in 1928 and 1929. The rate of increase was
greatest in cities of over 1,000,000 and next greatest in those of 500,000
or more, though perhaps too much significance need not be attached to
this fact.
Redfield's figures applied only to pavement within the corporate
limits of cities. But a city's street system actually reaches far beyond its
political boundaries. The paved motor highway net encircling every city
is really an extended street system. The physical base of the city, in the
form of streets and other utilities, is no longer adequately described by
statistics compiled for corporate areas.
This extension of city utilities has the effect of erasing many of the
former boundary lines between urban and rural territory and of bringing
within a single communal mechanism, with common problems of adminis-
tration and finance, entire constellations of politically independent centers
44 For other problems relating to Negro migration to northern cities, see Chap. XI.
See also Preliminary Report XXI of President's Conference on Home Building and Home
Ownership for study of Negro housing.
46 U. S. Bureau of Mines, Street Paving in Representative American Cities, 1925-1929,
I. C. 6431, May, 1931, p. 7; names of cities given in this publication.
f 471 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
that were previously separated from one another by strips of rural or
undeveloped territory.
Building Statistics as Indexes of Community Change. — Trends in
building construction are here considered only as they indicate change
in the organization and life of the community, not as they affect the
building industry itself.46 Inasmuch as an increasing proportion of all
buildings constructed in cities represents construction for sale or rent
rather than for use by the owner, tendencies in construction are good
barometers of the changing organization of the city. Buildings, like motor
cars or household furniture, are made for profit and, therefore, are respon-
sive to the demands of the consumer. But the building differs from most
other forms of consumers' goods in that it has a fixed location. Conse-
quently, new developments in architecture and building equipment and in
the platting and promotion of new districts and subdivisions tend to shift
a city's population. If the consumer desires a new kind of motor car or
living room furniture, he need not change his location to secure it. But if
he wishes to live or carry on business in a new kind of building, he must
go where that kind of building is. Building statistics reflect the relative
shifts of emphasis from one class of construction to another, and thereby
TABLE 11. — RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE SEVERAL CLASSES OF CONSTRUCTION AS
MEASURED BY SQUARE FEET OF FLOOR SPACE, 1919-1930
(Contracts awarded in 27 states")
Year
Total floor
space (thou-
sands of
square feet)
Percentage of total space constructed devoted to each specified class of
construction
Resi-
dential
Com-
mercial
Factories
Educa-
tional
Hos-
pitals
and
insti-
tutions
Public
build-
ings
Religious
and
memorial
Social
and
recrea-
tional
1919
557,488
401,951
381,996
570,076
588,014
597,541
759,728
737,424
721,766
832,916
672,648
424,424
43.4
34.4
53.1
54.6
60.3
62.0
61.9
61.1
60.3
61.1
50.8
47.5
19.7
20.9
16.8
16.7
15.9
15.9
16.3
16.5
16.5
16.1
20.3
19.4
27.2
31.2
9.0
10.8
9.8
6.6
7.4
8.6
7.8
9.0
13.2
9.4
4.1
6.5
10.4
9.5
7.5
7.8
6.7
6.0
6.3
6.3
7.7
11.4
1.2
1.6
2.8
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.8
2.4
2.2
2.6
4.1
.7
1.0
1.0
.8
.6
.8
.7
.8
1.0
1.1
1.5
3.1
1.0
1.3
2.4
2.3
1.6
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.4
2.0
2.7
3.1
4.5
3.2
2.6
2.8
3.5
3.5
4.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
0 Commerce Yearbook, 1931, vol. I (compiled from F. W. Dodge Corporation figures on contracts awarded),
p. 330.
46 For index numbers of construction, see Chap. V.
[ 472 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
indicate, in a broad way, some of the major changes that are taking place
in the physical structure and internal organization of the city.47
While the time interval is too brief and the territory for which com-
parable statistics are available is too small (27 states) to reveal a true
picture of the trend in construction for the nation as a whole, still the
figures presented in Table 11 have considerable significance. Residential
construction constituted more than half of the total floor space added to
American cities in nine of the twelve years for which data are available.
It gained in relative importance from 1921 to 1924, and held a position of
over 60 percent of the total through 1928, only to drop off sharply in
1929. Commercial construction, of which the chief subclass is office
buildings, maintained about a uniform position throughout the twelve-
year period. Factories dropped suddenly in relative importance after
1920, with a slight upward trend between 1924 and 1929 and a pro-
nounced sag in 1930. It is particularly significant that from 1921 onward
the construction of educational buildings runs very close to that of
factories. The effect of the depression is seen in the changing ratios of con-
struction in the several classes of buildings in the 1930 figures when non-
commercial classes — hospitals and institutions, educational and public
buildings — gain in relative importance in the construction program. The
shift will undoubtedly be much more pronounced in the 1931 figures.
Residential Construction. — In residential construction there are at
least two general trends that are worthy of special attention. The first is
the recent tendency for new residential space to increase faster than
population; and the second is the tendency toward multiple dwellings.
In regard to the former, the report on Recent Economic Changes contains
the following summary statement:
In the four years prior to the American entry into the World War, there was
an average construction of 209 square feet per person added to the population.
When the war years are included, this average drops to 205 square feet. The
post-war boom of 1919 not only wiped out all the shortage created during the
war but raised the average to nearly 221 square feet. Then followed another two
years with a low construction record, which again brought the average below the
level established in the four years from 1913 to 1916. But, beginning with 1922,
construction began a consistent upward movement, and by the end of 1927 the
average residential construction per person added to the population was more
than 286 square feet.48
The amount of residential floor space allotted each new inhabitant
varies considerably, however, in different localities. Table 12 shows the
relation between the amount of residential construction and the increase
47 See President's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership, Preliminary
Reports, I, VI, VII, XII, XXI.
48 Recent Economic Changes in the United States, Report of the Committee on Recent
Economic Changes of the President's Conference on Unemployment, New York, 1929,
vol. I, p. 63.
[ 473 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
in urban population in the F. W. Dodge territories for the ten-year period,
1920-1930. In order to make the recent records comparable with those of
earlier years, it was necessary to combine a number of the territories.
Consequently, the regions for which the data are assembled are somewhat
larger than the present Dodge territories. It will be noted that the
sparsely settled regions, on the whole, provided less new residential
floor space than the more congested territories.
TABLE 12. — RELATION OF NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (ALL TYPES) TO URBAN
POPULATION INCREASE, BY REGIONS, 1920-1930
(Contracts Awarded in 37 States")
Regions"
New residential
space constructed,
1920-1930 (thou-
sands of square
feet)
Urban population
increase, 1920-1930
Square feet of new
construction per
capita increase of
urban population,
1920-1930
Total
Percent
1 New England
352,411
1,250,078
465,759
385,922
908,177
67,979
*27S,241
*86,030
"735,524
2,677,495
979,945
1,451,564
3,908,359
270,221
1,732,734
876,659
12.5
25.2
15.8
21.9
28.9
17.4
46.3
57.9
479.1
466.9
475.3
265.52
232.4
251.6
'225.3
•196.3
2. New York and northern New Jersey. . .
3. Middle Atlantic
4. Pittsburgh
5. Central west
6. Northwest
7. Southeast
8. Texas
a F. W. Dodge Corporation, special tabulation.
6 These are the F. W. Dodge Corporation statistical divisions as of 1929. A number of the districts intersect
state boundaries and can be accurately described only by reference to county units. The territory included in
each district is roughly as follows: (1) The six New England states; (2) New York state and northern New
Jersey; (3) eastern half of Pennsylvania, rest of New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia,
Virginia; (4) western half of Pennsylvania, states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio; (5) southern peninsula
of Michigan, the states of Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, most of Wisconsin,
parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi; (6) states of Minnesota, North and South Dakota, western
Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan; (7) states of North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida,
Alabama, Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas; (8) state of Texas. Precise boundaries of
these districts may be obtained from the F. W. Dodge Corporation or from the author.
e Adjusted to make the 1930 urban area correspond with that of 1920; see U. S. Bureau of the Census,
Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, vol. I, p. 7.
d Data are available for only 7 years for the southeast region and for 5 years for the Texas region.
e Adjusted to number of years for which construction data are available.
The Trend Toward Multiple Dwellings. — The rapid increase in the
proportion of families provided for in apartments is strikingly shown in a
compilation of building permits for 257 cities of 25,000 population or over
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.49 Between 1921 and 1928 the
percentage of one-family dwellings, as indicated by the building permits,
dropped from 58.3 to 35.2; the number of two-family dwellings rose from
17.3 in 1921 to over 21 percent of the whole for 1922, 1923 and 1924, then
declined to 11.1 percent in 1928; and the percentage of multi-family
dwellings climbed from 24.4 in 1921 to 53.7 in 1928. In 1929 and 1930 the
49 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, April, 1931, vol. XXXI,
p. 171.
f 474 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
percentage of one-family dwellings increased again, reaching 45.7 percent
in the last named year; and 1930 also saw the percentage of two-family
dwellings climb to 12.1 and the percentage of multi-family dwellings fall
to 42.2. But this interruption of the trend noted between 1921 and 1928
is probably only a temporary reaction caused by the economic depres-
sion. Despite fluctuations of varying degree the general long time
tendency in residential construction is definitely toward the multi-family
dwelling.
A closer analysis of the building permit data, however, indicates that
this tendency is a product of metropolitanism and is not characteristic of
the housing movement in the smaller independent cities of the nation.
Robert Whitten, analyzing the building permit data of the Bureau
of Labor Statistics for 1921 and 1929 in connection with the President's
Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership,50 brings out this
distinction clearly. In the fourteen largest cities, with populations of
500,000 or more, the permits for multi-family dwellings increased from 34
to 64.4 percent of the whole. Increases for other urban communities were
as shown in the following statement:
1021 1929
31 Central metropolitan cities 30 . 3 58 . 4
57 Suburban cities (population 25,000 or more) 25 . 3 47 . 5
46 Independent cities (population 100,000 or more) 11.2 19.9
65 Independent cities (population 50,000 to 100,000) 8.8 15 . 9
64 Independent cities (population 25,000 to 50,000) 10 . 1 10 . 4
In all the cities studied, except those in the third category, which were
communities of 100,000 population or more outside of metropolitan
regions, the percentage of two-family dwellings declined; in cities of that
category it increased from 9.5 in 1921 to 13.4 in 1929. In general these
figures reveal a much smaller percentage of apartments both at the
beginning and at the end of the period in the smaller and independent
cities than in larger cities or those included in metropolitan areas. Only
within the metropolitan regions does the apartment seem rapidly to be
changing the manner of life of the people.
The Increasing Size of the Structural Unit. — "Large buildings,"
writes John M. Gries,51 "have been the most distinctive feature of post-
war non-residential construction . . . Office buildings, department
stores, hotels, apartment houses, and schools have tended toward larger
units." Not only do a larger proportion of metropolitan residents live in
multiple houses but the average size of structures both for dwelling and for
working has increased. The growth of large apartment buildings, however,
60 From an unpublished Appendix, prepared for the report of the Committee on Family
Types and Community Relations as Determining Housing Needs. See also Preliminary
Report, I.
61 In Recent Economic Changes, op. cit., vol. I, p. 240.
[ 475 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
has been more conspicuous in the metropolitan regions than in the more
scatered urban centers, as is indicated by Table 13.
TABLE 13. — FLOOR SPACE PER APARTMENT, BY REGIONS, 1920-1929
(Figures represent the average number of square feet of floor space per apartment house of the new construction
for each year, as indicated by contracts awarded in 37 states*1)
New York
Year
New
England
and
northern
New
Middle
Atlantic
Pitts-
burgh
Central
West
North-
west
South-
east
Texas
Average
for all
regions
Jersey
1920
4,797
10,670
6,623
7,773
7,897
14,7116
e
e
7,671
1921
3,428
12,690
6,747
5,953
7,924
7,909
e
e
8,326
1922
3,848
13,313
8,856
5,602
6,998
4,729
c
e
7,605
1923
4,410
14,556
6,084
4,883
6,417
5,561
7,898
e
8,021
1924
4,509
13,826
6,962
4,336
5,716
3,949
4,319
c
7,067
1925
4,699
17,021
7,203
4,205
7,579
3,978
5,875
4,648
8,327
1926
4,138
18,429
7,908
4,319
8,657
4,600
6,147
3,434
9,436
1927
4,093
16,361
8,902
5,137
9,142
4,176
4,192
2,904
9,045
1928
7,869
20,248
14,207
8,991
11,911
6,877
6,255
4,877
13,843
1929
9,431
22,107
16,370
7,596
10,478
4,953
6,755
5,008
13,199
°F. W. Dodge Corporation, special compilation. Regions same as those in Table 12.
6 Due to the relatively small number of apartments constructed in the Northwest district — only 71 in
1920 — the average is unduly influenced by a few large buildings.
« No data.
Decreasing Size of the Dwelling Unit. — Although the size of the
metropolitan apartment building and the amount of floor space per
individual tend to increase, the family dwelling unit is growing smaller.
This may be explained by the diminishing size of the family itself.
Evidence regarding the trend toward smaller apartments is fragmentary
but nevertheless suggestive. A. G. Hinman has summarized the records
of the Chicago City Health Department as follows:
Of 293,045 apartment units constructed in Chicago, the period 1913-1928,
6 percent have one room; 12 percent, two rooms; 14 percent, three rooms; 29
percent, four rooms; 24 percent, five rooms; and 15 percent, six or more rooms.
The average size of apartment units in the buildings constructed in the period
1913-1919 is 4.6 rooms and in those built since 1924, 3.5 rooms.52
The statistics published by the Regional Survey of New York show
a similar tendency toward the smaller apartment:
In 1913 the average number of rooms per apartment in new construction
was 4.19; in 1925 it was 3.63; in 1926, 3.49; in 1927, 3.39; and in 1928, 3.34.53
Office Buildings. — The most conspicuous development in the large
structural unit is the office building. Every year seems to establish a new
52 Hinman, A. G., " An Inventory of Housing in a Suburban City," Journal of Land
and Public Utility Economics, May, 1931, vol. VII, p. 174.
63 Regional Survey of New York and Its Environs, VI, Buildings: Their Uses and the
Spaces About Them, New York, 1931, p. 238.
[476]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
record in the height and floor space of the office structure. According to the
annual surveys of the National Association of Building Owners and
Managers, which cover old as well as new construction, the average
rentable floor space per office building reported increased from 61,473
square feet in 1924 (23 cities — 1,105 buildings) to 85,203 square feet in
1930 (43 cities— 1,960 buildings). The Chicago Real Estate Board has
compiled data on office buildings constructed in the city of Chicago since
1871. The trend toward increasing size of the building unit is clearly
indicated.
TABLE 14. — CHANGE IN THE SIZE OF NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS IN THE CHICAGO LOOP
DISTRICT, 1871-1930°
Number
Total floor
Floor space
Number
Total floor
Floor space
Year
of build-
space
per building
Year
of build-
space
per building
ings
(square feet)
(square feet)
ings
(square feet)
(square feet)
1871-1880
11
411,695
37,426
1901-1910
29
4,001,822
137,993
1881-1890
12
990,460
82,538
1911-1920
38
5,530,572
145,541
1891-1900
32
2,934,889
91,715
1921-1930
80
13,283,339
166,041
0 Unpublished material.
Vertical Expansion. — The increasing size of the structural unit is a
result of vertical growth even more than expansion of the building site.
American cities are reaching upward as well as outward. The vertical
growth, like horizontal spread, is a natural structural response to the
operation of economic forces under present conditions of technological
culture. Recent developments in vertical transportation have been less
conspicuous but almost as important as those in horizontal transportation.
According to information furnished by the Otis Elevator Company, the
total number of power elevators in the country increased from 138,756 in
1920 to 220,608 in 1929. But the increase in the number of elevators does
not fully indicate the advance in vertical transportation. Although it
cannot be shown statistically, the increase in the volume and mileage
of vertical traffic has undoubtedly been very great in recent years.
According to Clarence T. Coley, operating manager of the Equitable Building,
the 48 passenger elevators in that great structure carry on the average 96,000
people per day between the hours of 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. During the course of a
year they travel 275,000 miles, or 11 times around the earth at the Equator,
each car carrying 6 persons for every mile. The building has 40 stories, 1,220,688
square feet of net rentable area and a permanent population of 12,000. The
people passing in and out of its various portals each day number 135,000. The
real estate management firm of Cushman & Wakefield has had a count made of
the number of passengers carried by the elevators in sixteen office buildings
under its management in the Grand Central Zone of New York City. The sixteen
buildings had a combined height of 303 stories and were serviced by 75 elevator
cars. During the year 1928, including 305 working days between the hours of
[ 477 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
8 a.m. and 6 p.m., 36,089,850 persons were carried by the elevators. The 75 cars
made a total of 4,960,170 trips equal to a total of 415,041 miles. These figures,
inadequate as they are, give us some idea of the enormously heavy traffic carried
by the "vertical streets" of New York City.64
While the tall building is still largely confined to a few of the great
cities of the nation, it is beginning to appear in the smaller cities as well,
where building regulations permit. In 1929 the Thompson Starrett
Company, Inc., made a nation wide census of "skyscrapers," the results
of which are summarized in the following table :
TABLE 15. — CENSUS OF SKYSCRAPERS, BY SIZE OF CITIES, 1929°
Size of cities
Number of
cities
Number of buildings
10 to 20 stories
Number of buildings
21 stories or more
1,000,000 and over .
5
3,009
295
500,000 to 1,000,000
8
399
40
250,000 to 500,000
24
495
29
100,000 to 250,000
25
SOS
12
Under 100,000
12
80
1
Total
74
4,286
377
0 "A Census of Skyscrapers," American City, September, 1929, vol. XLI, p. 130.
This census, taken three years ago, does not depict the situation at the
present time. New York City alone, according to its tax assessor's report
which is summarized in the Chicago Sunday Tribune, March 13, 1932, has
493 buildings of over 20 stories, 93 of which have over 30 stories. "Four of
the 93 tallest and a cluster of the lesser fry have been added to the total
since the tax man was around last year. "
The ratio between land area and rentable floor space is a determining
factor in the economy of the skyscraper. The rentable floor space of the
Empire State building is more than twenty-five times its ground area.
In order to achieve this it had to be extended to 85 stories. For the
Chrysler building the ratio is a little over twenty to one. For the Wool-
worth it is a little over sixteen to one. For the Metropolitan Tower it is
under thirteen to one. But the ratio does not increase in direct proportion
to height, largely because of the additional space that must be given to
elevators in the higher buildings. There is, therefore, an economic limit
to the height of city buildings and it is possible that that limit has been
attained or even passed.55
64 Clark, W. C., and Kingston, J. L., The Skyscraper, A Study in the Economic Height
of Modern Office Buildings, American Institute of Steel Construction, New York, 1930,
p. 128.
66 Stewart Browne, President of the United Real Estate Owners' Association, is quoted
in the New York Times, March 20, 1932, as predicting, "that during the present year
[1932] all skyscraper buildings built during the past four years, except those owned by
large financial institutions, will be foreclosed unless such buildings have already been
foreclosed."
[ 478]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
Skyscraper Apartments. — Although high buildings are predominately
office and hotel structures, there are indications that the apartment has
broken the tradition of the walk up height, and is about to join the ranks
of the skyscraper class. Probably because of building restrictions the
number of skyscraper apartments is still comparatively small. The high
apartment, as yet, is distinctly a metropolitan institution. It is found only
in a few of the larger cities where land values make living near the
business section prohibitive for all except the very wealthy and the very
poor — those who accept the remnants of a passing residential economy.
The recent sudden appearance of skyscraper apartment buildings close
to the main business centers of New York City and Chicago may mark the
beginning of a new historical phase in the residential use of some of the
blighted areas of our large cities. There seems to be a growing desire on
the part of business executives and certain professional groups to live
close to their places of employment and the skyscraper apartment is a
structural accommodation to this interest. From an economic standpoint
this type of building, designed for the use of the higher income brackets
of the population, is able to compete with commercial services for high
land value sites. And from the social standpoint the size and prestige of
the building are usually sufficient to overcome any stigma that may be
associated with living in an area that is basically commercial in character.
Furthermore, the introduction of the automatic control elevator into
apartment buildings of medium height bids fair to initiate a new era
in apartment living for a larger proportion of the city's population. The
increase in the number of automatic elevators, which elevator companies
report are confined largely to apartments, has been rapid in recent years.
In 1924 there were only 830 automatic control elevators in the country;
by 1929 the number had increased to 6,447.
The Significance of the Larger Structural Unit. — The most obvious
effect of the increasing size of the structural unit is the change produced
in the physical contour of the city. There is no doubt that the American
city is beginning to assume aesthetic qualities which formerly it sadly
lacked. The great tower, built for beauty as well as utility, has initiated
a new era in American architecture. But it is outside the field of this
chapter to deal with the architectural aspects of community change.56
The large building is first of all a physical manifestation of the trend
toward territorial concentration and functional differentiation of various
types of economic and social activities within the city. It is generally
known that as cities increase in size their different economic activities
tend to group themselves, giving rise to financial, shopping, wholesale,
amusement, and other kinds of districts. Locality specialization, whether
in the form of districts or individual streets, has always been a distinctive
56 On trends in architecture, see Chap. XIX.
[ 479 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
feature of large cities, even those without modern facilities for transporta-
tion. The old cities of the Orient are renowned for their specialized streets,
along which rows of small shops display similar or complementary wares
for sale. The financial districts of London and New York are examples of
old and seemingly permanent grouping.
The recent tendency in American cities is for the building, rather than
the street, to become the physical unit for such complementary groupings
of activities. The tall building is like the old specialized street, stood on
end. By housing competitive or related services under a common roof, and
by substituting vertical for horizontal transportation, a great saving of
time is effected. The situation is well illustrated in the Chicago Merchan-
dise Mart. This great structure, covering 200,000 square feet of ground,
but having 4,000,000 square feet of rentable floor space, had listed on its
directory of tenants in July, 1931, 1,258 different names, representing
wholesaling, manufacturing and advertising firms. Were these firms
distributed on the old pattern they would require many times the ground
space occupied by the Mart, and the customer would have to travel many
miles of streets to obtain the selection of merchandise at present available
in this single building.
The department store, which made its appearance in the 1890's,
with the introduction of the electric street car, represented the beginning
of the movement toward the large specialized building unit structurally
designed to house a series of associated economic services. This type of
building has now been widely imitated. Banks, theatres, hospitals,
schools and even churches are assuming the department store pattern of
organization and conducting their operations in fewer but larger buildings
which are more systematically organized.
Of course the extreme expression of this tendency is the office building,
the existence and the peculiarities of which can be partially explained by
the fact that the managerial functions of a modern business can be carried
on apart from its operative or productive functions. Management needs
relatively small space and it is not tied down by problems of transporta-
tion. As R. M. Haig has said:57
The exercise of this managerial function of coordination and control is at
first glance singularly independent of transportation. It does not require the
transfer of huge quantities of materials. It deals almost exclusively with informa-
tion. What is all-important is transportation of intelligence. The mail, the cable,
the telegraph, and the telephone bring in its raw material and carry out its
finished product. Internally easy contact of man with man is essential. The tele-
phone is prodigally used, of course, but the personal conference remains, after
all, the method by which most of the important work is done. Conferences with
corporation officers, with bankers, with lawyers, and accountants, with partners,
57 Haig, R. M., "Towards an Understanding of the Metropolis," Quarterly Journal of
Economics, May, 1926, vol. XL, pp. 426-428.
[ 480 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
with fellow directors, fill the day. The work is facilitated when the time of the
men whose time is most valuable is conserved. The district must be conveniently
accessible and must be at the heart of the system of communication. It must be
arranged so as to give the greatest possible ease of contact among men whose
presence is desired in arriving at decisions.
V. CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING58 AND ZONING
Up to this point attention has been focused on the natural processes
of city growth as they find expression under prevailing conditions of
direct competition or competitive cooperation. The two following
sections, planning and government, deal with efforts to direct and
control growth tendencies in the interest of the general welfare of the
community.59
While it is commonly recognized that the city is a sort of super-
organism, which obtains its characteristic pattern from the interplay of
competitive forces, still it is becoming increasingly apparent that unregu-
lated competition may be destructive. It may distort the structural
growth of the city and lead to waste, injustice and general inefficiency.
In order to avoid these evils and direct the processes of city growth more
in conformity with general welfare, the planning and zoning movement
has developed throughout the nation.
The purpose of city planning and its more recent developments into
regional planning is to make cities and regions convenient, healthful and
attractive places in which people may work, play, learn, and otherwise
express themselves in well rounded living. This is an aim shared also by
other civic endeavors ; the special province of city planning is comprehen-
sive treatment of the wide range of problems relating to the physical
aspects of the city or other unit — its streets, railroads, waterways, public
services; its public buildings, schools and other cultural centers; parks,
recreation grounds and other open spaces; and the development of hous-
ing, industry and other private property.
The city planning movement in the United States and its dependencies
is dated from 1905. In that year three plans were made: for Manila, P. I.,
San Francisco, California, and Columbia, South Carolina. These are the
earliest city planning reports of which there is any record. One of the
next important plans to be completed was that for Chicago, which
appeared in 1909. Significant trends from these beginnings are to be
found in the legislation relating to city planning, in the setting up of
planning commissions, and in the definite projects undertaken by cities,
which resulted in well considered reports.
68 The material on planning in this section was prepared by Shelby M. Harrison
(Director of Social Studies, Regional Plan of New York and Its Environs) and Flavel
Shurtleff (Secretary of the National Conference on City Planning and the Planning Founda-
tion of America).
69 For relation of municipal to general governmental problems, see Chap. XXIX.
[481 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Legislative Sanctions. — The first recognition in state legislation in
this country of city planning as a function of a city department is found
in the special act of Connecticut for Hartford in 1907.
The planning commissions in Milwaukee, 1908, in Chicago, 1909, and
in Detroit, 1910, were established under city ordinances. The Baltimore
commission was appointed by authority of a special act of the Maryland
legislature, passed in 1910. Most of the other early planning commissions
were established under local ordinances.60
The first planning laws of general application were passed in 1909 for
Wisconsin and in 1911 for Pennsylvania (cities of the first class). In 1913
laws of this character were passed for all New York cities and incorporated
villages. Massachusetts in the same year passed an act which made
planning boards mandatory in all cities and towns over 10,000 population.
The states (other than New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massa-
chusetts and Wisconsin) which have since passed laws of general applica-
tion authorizing the creation of planning boards are as follows: 1915,
Nebraska, Ohio, California; 1918, Connecticut; 1919 Minnesota, North
Carolina, Oregon; 1921, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Nevada, Tennessee,
Vermont; 1923, Oklahoma; 1924, District of Columbia; 1925, Iowa; 1926,
Louisiana; 1927, Maryland; 1928, Kentucky; 1929, Arkansas, Colorado,
North Dakota.
Thus just two more than half of the states have enacted legislative
sanctions or bases for planning in their cities. All sections of the country
are represented, although the greatest activity was centered in the states
along the Atlantic seaboard and in the middle west. The curve of devel-
oping interest during these two decades is fairly regular, with an indica-
tion of special activity around the year 1921. Many of these states have
revised their first planning laws. Others have made them universally
applicable where originally they applied only to cities of one class.
The following states have given legal sanction to a planning depart-
ment or commission by special acts which apply only to certain-named
cities or areas: 1917, Maine; 1921, South Carolina; 1923, Georgia, Florida;
1928, Virginia.
The earlier ordinances and acts set up advisory commissions or boards
whose chief function was to study the needs of the city and secure a plan
for its guidance. They had no authority to enforce their plans. Whether
the plan was used or not depended largely on the character of the city's
administration and its understanding of planning values. A more recent
trend has been toward giving more power to the planning agency, cul-
minating in the so-called master planning legislation passed by New
York in 1926. This law and the Standard City Planning Enabling Act
60 For special discussions of planning in relation to housing, see Conference on Home
Building, Preliminary Reports, VI, VIII, XII, XXIV.
[ 482 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
brought out by the Advisory Committee on City Planning and Zoning
of the United States Department of Commerce in 1928, give a legal
status to the master plan and a suspensive veto to the planning commis-
sion. California, Colorado and North Dakota, in 1929, and New Jersey
in 1930, have enacted legislation rather closely following the Standard
Act.
City Planning Commissions or Boards. — During the last two decades
numerous official city planning commissions or boards have been estab-
lished throughout the country. Their functions range from undertaking
the preliminary survey work upon which later plans are based to drafting
the plans and putting them into operation. Before 1914 there were 17
such official planning agencies. During the next few years the newly
instituted agencies may be grouped as follows:
Number of
Years official planning agencies
1914 to 1922 207
1923 to 1926 161
1927 to (June) 1930 between 350 and 400
The total for the period of roughly twenty years is thus upwards of
735 official commissions or boards established as part of the local govern-
ment machinery. In addition, numerous non-governmental city planning
agencies have been instituted. The number of non-official agencies in
recent years is proportionately less than formerly since the public has
become somewhat better acquainted with city planning and it has seemed
less necessary to get action started through an experimental venture. It
is evident that the bulk of the development in official commissions has
taken place during the last fifteen years, and that by far the most active
period was from 1927 to 1930.
These official planning bodies may be grouped as to size of locality
served. In the 13 cities with a population of over 500,000 in 1930 there
were 11 governmental planning agencies. In the 80 cities between 100,-
000 and 500,000 there were 70 official planning agencies. In the 283
cities having a population between 25,000 and 100,000 there were 205
official agencies. The approximately 500 remaining agencies were about
equally divided between cities under 5,000 and the cities between 5,000
and 25,000, of which latter there were 1,457.
The effectiveness of planning agencies varies extremely widely among
the different cities depending on the composition of the commission, on the
law or ordinance under which it operates, on the cooperation from other
municipal agencies, and on other public support. Some indication of their
place in the municipal scheme may be seen in the yearly appropriation
received by the various commissions.61 In those cities where separate
61 To secure exact statistics is extremely difficult, if not impossible, for some cities which
are effectively carrying out planning programs make no separate appropriations, the plan-
[ 483 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
appropriations to the planning commissions have been made over a
period of at least three years the following facts may be summarized :
Appropriations of $20,000 and upward were made in 14 of the 18 cities which have
a population of over 400,000.
Of the 75 cities between 100,000 and 400,000 population, 13 made appropriations
of $10,000 to $20,000, and 13 made appropriations of $5,000 to $10,000.
Of the 1,740 cities in the country under 100,000 and over 5,000 there were less
than 20 with appropriations of over $5,000 a year.
In other words, of the 93 cities with a population of over 100,000, up
to this writing 40 have specific appropriations for the planning commis-
sion's work ranging from $5,000 upwards. These appropriations are for
the regular administrative work of the planning commission. They do not
include amounts appropriated for specific planning projects, like the
making of a topographical survey, a master plan, or the drafting of a
zoning ordinance.
The experience of leading city planners points to the observation that
the planning commission's work cannot be effectively carried out unless
it has assigned to it a paid secretary-engineer. This official may have
other duties; he may be the city engineer as he is in many cities. For the
payment of his salary, or a part of it, and for other administrative ex-
penses of the commission there will certainly be required not less than
$1,000 a year in the smallest cities and not less than $5,000 a year where
the executive officer of the planning commission gives his full time to
that work. On this basis it is seen that a very large proportion of the
planning commissions are as yet inadequately financed, less than 60
cities among the 1,833 with populations of 5,000 or over having seen fit
thus far to provide at least $5,000 per year for this work. It should be
added, however, that funds secured by a number of private, non-govern-
mental planning bodies would add considerably to this group of 60 cities.
In a few such cases the total sums available have run into comparatively
large figures, as in Philadelphia, where $500,000 has been raised for its
Regional Plan and in New York, where the New York Regional Plan
Committee has already spent more than a million dollars on its enterprises.
City Planning Reports. — Another indication of developments in plan-
ning is the number of cities which, through official or non-official agencies,
have carried their planning projects to the point where a city plan report
has been issued. Of the 93 largest cities of the United States, that is,
those over 100,000 population in 1930, 77 have issued fairly compre-
hensive planning reports. Of the cities ranging between 25,000 and 100,000
population, reports have been prepared in 108; and of the cities under
25,000 about 150 have planning reports. In a few cases these are for the
ning commission being considered a division of the public works department or of the city
engineer's office.
[ 484 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
cities and their surrounding regions. Thus, of 1,833 cities of 5,000 or more,
only a little over one-sixth have carried their interest in planning through
the stage where a report has been published.
Of the 335 cities which have planning reports, 60 were made before
1916. These would now be considered hardly more than preliminary or
sketch plans. They were not based on comprehensive studies of popula-
tion, traffic movement or other local conditions, and in most cases were
hardly more than suggestions for improvements made by the planner
after a brief visit to the city. More than half the cities which had these
early plans have since either discarded them entirely for more thorough
and comprehensive reports covering all the items in a city planning pro-
gram, or have supplemented them by comprehensive reports in one or
more fields, such as streets, parks or zoning. Even in the 300 new or
revised plans which have been produced since 1916 there is a great differ-
ence in the thoroughness of the basic surveys, and consequently in the
completeness of the final plan; but about 125 of them are known to be
grounded on substantial data secured by careful surveys. They would
probably serve as "master plans" as defined by the planning laws of New
York, New Jersey, California, Colorado and North Dakota.
There is fairly general agreement now among city planners that
planning programs cannot be effective unless they are based upon reason-
ably complete master plans; and that master plans cannot be effective
unless the relative importance of the various projects recommended is at
least outlined. In other words, it is becoming increasingly evident that
the city plan must include a financial as well as a physical program, and
also a capital budget outlining long term improvements as well as a budget
for current expenses.
The last ten or twelve years have seen the rise of regional planning, in
which the principles and experience gained in city planning have been
applied to a certain extent to larger areas. These areas in a few instances
have been counties but more often include the suburban territory, the
so-called commuting districts, around the central city, more or less regard-
less of political or governmental boundary lines. By 1931 at least three
states had enacted basic legislation providing for planning on such
regional or county bases.
Zoning. — The zoning of cities and other local areas, sometimes under-
taken as a separate project but now more often, and more properly, as
a part of city or regional planning, is here treated separately because
many cities have been zoned which do not have even a preliminary plan,
and in some cases not even a planning commission.62 Zoning regulations
supplement the city plan by controlling the use which may be made of
private land and buildings. They provide for three or four classes of
62 On zoning laws, see Chap. XXVIII.
[ 485 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
districts, usually residential, commercial, industrial and unclassified; and
then exclude from each district all uses regarded as undesirable.
Zoning dates back less than twenty years in this country. Before 1916
there were only five zoned cities in the United States, but by the end of
1930 there were nearly one thousand. The action taken by cities by periods
of years may be summed up as follows:
Year Cities zoned
Before 1916 5
1916 through 1920 30
1921 through 1925 438
1926 through 1927 210
1928 through 1929 221
1930.. 77
Total
981
It is evident from this summary that the period of greatest activity
in zoning began in 1921. The annual increase in number of cities zoned
since that date has been over 100, except from 1930 when the number
dropped to 77.
Although there are about 200 more zoned cities than cities with
planning commissions, the distribution in population groups is propor-
tionately much the same, as will be seen in Table 16.
TABLE 16. — ZONED CITIES ACCORDING TO SIZE OF POPULATION, 1930a
Size of city 1930 census
Number in
this group
Number
zoned
Size of city 1930 census
Number in
this group
Number
zoned
Over 500,000 population
13
11
Under 5,000
1,332
300
100 000 to 500 000
80
71
25,000 to 100,000
283
180
Total
3,165
981
5,000 to 25,000
1,457
419&
a U. S. Bureau of Standards, Division of Building and Housing, Survey of Zoning Laws and Ordinances
Adopted During 1930, by Norman L. Knauss, May, 1931, pp 6-11; supplemented by data from the files of the
National Conference on City Planning, New York. The Division of Building and Housing has received reports
indicating that during 1931 some 68 additional municipalities have been zoned and that 101 other cities^
towns and villages had been zoned prior to 1931 but not previously reported, thus making the number of
communities in which zoning laws were in operation at the end of 1931 total 1,150. Of these, 83 had a population
of over 100,000.
6 The division between this and the next smaller group of cities, at this writing, is approximate, due to some
uncertainty in the reporting. It is accurate within a negligible percentage, however.
During the period since zoning began, there has been marked advance
in the scope of zoning legislation and improvement in the technique
applied to the drafting of zoning ordinances, just as there has been
advance in the scientific preparation of city plans. In some of the earlier
ordinances cities were zoned for "use" only, that is, for the control of
the uses to which the land should be put — commercial, industrial,
residential, or other. Practically all of the ordinances since 1925 have been
[ 486 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
comprehensive, covering use to which land and buildings may be put, the
height and bulk of buildings, or the area which may be covered.
A wide difference is to be seen in the administration of zoning ordi-
nances. In some cities councils are easily prevailed upon to make amend-
ments to the zoning ordinance, usually without referring the proposals to
the planning commission or zoning board even for a report. In some cities
the boards of adjustment or appeal, which are the quasi- judicial boards
to hear zoning appeals, are very liberal in their interpretation of the
ordinance or in permitting exceptions to them — too liberal in the judg-
ment of leaders in this field for very effective community control of its
land and building developments. In other cities, councils make no
amendments without first getting the advice of the planning commission,
and in the great majority of cases this advice is followed. In these latter
cities, it is usually found that the zoning boards of appeal are strictly
interpreting the ordinances and relaxing only in cases where decided
hardship would otherwise result.
City Planning Instruction in Colleges. — Practically no attention was
given to instruction in or training for city planning in any college or
technical school in this country before 1909. The School of City Planning
at Harvard University was established in the autumn of 1929. Twenty-five
colleges or technical institutions are now giving either one or more city
planning courses in connection with their departments of architecture,
engineering, or landscape architecture. At least 50 additional colleges or
technical schools give lectures on city planning in connection with courses
in engineering, art, political economy, municipal government, political
science or sociology.
VI. TRENDS IN METROPOLITAN GOVERNMENT63
The spread of urban population over vast areas surrounding our great
cities has inevitably raised serious governmental problems. This popula-
tion movement has not only disregarded existing units of government but
has taken place with a rapidity far outrunning the normal expansion of
cities by annexation. The modern metropolitan region, as indicated earlier
in this chapter, frequently includes scores of towns and cities as well as the
whole or parts of numerous counties, and certain regions intersect two or
more state boundaries.
The problems which such a situation occasions are many and difficult.
Some are due to the fact that the character of certain services such as
planning, water supply, and sewerage naturally requires action on a broad
scale. Others spring primarily from the inability of some or all of the
individual units to finance the services required by their situation, as
63 This section was prepared by Thomas H. Reed, Professor of Political Science, Uni-
versity of Michigan.
[ 487 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
education, transportation, the institutional care of the poor and sick,
recreation, and the ownership and operation of public utilities. Still others
are caused by the impossibility of making a service such as police protec-
tion or health really successful in a particular unit in the absence of
service of similar quality in its neighbors. One or more of these causes is
involved in all the peculiar problems of the metropolis. Park sites, for
example, are usually to be found only in outlying districts quite incapable
of dealing with the problem on a metropolitan scale.
The historic method of reconciling urban needs and urban powers has
been by annexation. Metropolitan development in the last twenty years,
however, has been too swift for annexation. Furthermore, there has
developed a notable opposition to annexation in well established satellite
communities. Brookline will not submit to annexation by Boston, nor
will Webster Groves join St. Louis. The forcible annexation of such
suburbs by fiat of the state legislature is no longer considered politically
feasible. The last great forcible annexation was that of Allegheny to
Pittsburgh in 190764 and its repercussions both in Pennsylvania and in the
country at large have discouraged similar drastic action elsewhere.
Failing annexation, the one easily applicable remedy has been the
establishment of special districts to provide particular services. There is
nothing novel, of course, in this device. A metropolitan police district was
established for New York as early as 1857, and the same method has since
been used at intervals to meet special situations. The great majority of
such authorities now in existence, however, date back no further than
1900, and in recent years they have been established at an average rate
of more than one a year.65 Some are governed by commissions appointed
by the governor (Massachusetts Metropolitan Commission). Other
commissions are made up of delegates elected by the authorities of the
constituent municipalities (Montreal Metropolitan Commission), while
still others are elected directly by the people of the district (Chicago
Sanitary District). Some districts are financed by state funds; others by
taxes levied directly by the governing body; others by assessments
apportioned to the constituent municipalities on the basis of population,
assessed valuation, or services rendered; others by loans secured on the
earnings of enterprises.
Successful as many of these districts have been in providing essential
public works, recreational facilities, and so forth, there has been a
steadily growing recognition of the fact that they do not solve the metro-
64 In this case the legislature provided for a vote in both cities jointly, the result of
which was a foregone conclusion. Pittsburgh had more than twice the population of
Allegheny.
66 Fourteen are listed for the years 1915-1929 in Committee on Metropolitan Govern-
ment of the National Municipal League, The Government of Metropolitan Areas, New York,
1930, p. 27. The list does not even pretend to be complete.
[ 488 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
TABLE 17. — PRINCIPAL SPECIAL DISTRICTS IN EXISTENCE IN 1931
Metropolitan area in
which situated
Name of district
Date of
establish-
ment
New York
Passaic Valley Sewerage District
1902
Joint Sewerage Districts
1899
New York and New Jersey Interstate Palisades Park Commissions .
North Jersey Water Supply District .
1900
1916
Port of New York Authority
1921
Chicago
Chicago Sanitary District (sewerage)
1889
Philadelphia
South Jersey Port Authority
1926
Los Angeles
Metropolitan Water District
1930
Boston
Massachusetts Metropolitan District"
1919
Division of Metropolitan Planning
1923
Metropolitan Transit District .
1929
Cleveland
Cleveland Metropolitan Park District . .
1915
San Francisco— Oakland
East Bay Municipal Utility District (water supply)
1923
1924
Milwaukee
Washington, D. C
Milwaukee County Metropolitan Sewerage District
Washington Suburban District (water supply, sewerage, plumbing
inspection, control over planning)
1921
1918
Seattle
Port of Seattle Commission
1911
Indianapolis
Indianapolis Sanitary District (sewage disposal, etc.)
1917
Portland, Oregon
Portland Port Commission
1891
a Formed by consolidating the Metropolitan Park District (1893) and the Metropolitan Water and Sewerage
District, which latter in turn had been formed in 1901 by consolidating the Metropolitan Sewerage District
(1889) and the Metropolitan Water District (1895).
politan problem as a whole. To create enough of them to do so would
inundate our urban centers beneath a flood of unrelated public authorities.
Where, as in the case of the Massachusetts Metropolitan Commission,
several functions are united under one board, we have something closely
approximating a new unit of general local government. This indeed is
what the situation seems to demand, and the last few years have seen
deliberate attempts to solve the metropolitan problem by the establish-
ment of new governmental units of metropolitan scope with specified
powers, leaving all other functions to the existing municipalities within
the area. What is more significant is that no other method has been promi-
nently urged in any of the communities where vigorous campaigns have
been conducted for the solution of the metropolitan problem. Though
none of these attempts has been successful — and in one sense no trend of
action established — they indicate the trend of thought upon which future
solutions will probably depend. The first of these attempts was begun in
Alameda County, California, in 1916. It was proposed to unite all the
municipalities and some unincorporated territory on the eastern shore of
San Francisco Bay in a single city and county of which the constituent
municipalities were to be boroughs. In 1922 a proposal of this general
tenor was rejected by the voters of the proposed city-county, actuated by
fear of domination by Oakland. In 1923 the Pennsylvania legislature
[ 489 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
authorized the appointment of a Commission to study Municipal Con-
solidation in Allegheny County. This commission procured the adoption
of an enabling constitutional amendment and after a thorough survey of
conditions in the Pittsburgh area presented to the legislature of 1929 a
charter which applied the name City of Pittsburgh to Allegheny County,
gave the new unit additional powers and a modernized governmental
structure, but left present Pittsburgh and all the other municipalities of
the county as members of this great municipal federation. This charter,
seriously and harmfully amended by the legislature, received at a special
election on June 25, 1929, a large popular majority in Pittsburgh and
Allegheny County. But, although it carried more than two-thirds of the
122 cities, boroughs and townships of the county, it failed of adoption
because the constitution required a two-thirds vote in a majority of these
units. The movement goes on and this year the legislature passed for the
first time a constitutional amendment substituting a simple majority for
the two-thirds provision.
After St. Louis had attempted unsuccessfully to annex St. Louis
County in 1926, leading men in both city and county undertook to unite
the two sections on a federated basis. An exhaustive study of local condi-
tions prefaced the campaign, which had the support of prominent indus-
trialists and business men. The enabling constitutional amendment,
however, was defeated by the people of the state in November, 1930, in
an election fatal to all proposals on the ballot.
In the meantime an organization was formed in Cleveland in the latter
part of 1927 to study the metropolitan situation of that city, impelled
largely by the realization that the best element of Cleveland's electorate
was rapidly being lost to the city by reason of the outward movement of
population. Amendments to the Ohio constitution sponsored by this
organization, opening the way to metropolitan consolidation on the
federated pattern, have failed to pass the Ohio legislature due to rural
misunderstanding and opposition.
The assignment of powers to the Greater City or metropolitan govern-
ment in several of the recently proposed plans of consolidation appears in
Table 18. All other powers in each case were left to the existing local
governments.
These movements in several of our largest cities — so far unsuccessful
but by no means extinguished — are a clear indication of the trend toward
the federated city as a solution of the metropolitan problem. They have
suffered defeat not because of opposition to the preservation of local
autonomy but quite the contrary. The smaller units have feared that
their autonomy was insufficiently protected. The office holders of the
great city have objected to any diminution of their importance by the
surrender of any of their functions to a greater city government. The only
[ 490 ]
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
TABLE 18. — PRINCIPAL POWERS ASSIGNED TO METROPOLITAN OR GREATER CITY
GOVERNMENT
Pittsburgh commission's
plan
Pittsburgh legislative
plan
St. Louis committee
plan
Boston committee
plan
Care of poor and insane..
Care of poor and insane.
Making and enforcing
Health regulation in less
Health administration.
health regulations di-
drastic form.
rectly when no local
health authority ex-
isted.
Construction and main-
Construction and mainte-
Construction and mainte-
tenance of through-
nance of through-traffic
nance of through high-
traffic streets.
streets.
ways.
Planning
Planning.
Zoning where zoning had
not been undertaken at
effective date of char-
ter.
Creation of special taxing
Creation of special taxing
Creation of special taxing
districts for the pur-
districts for the purpose
districts for the purpose
pose of supplying any
of supplying any work,
of supplying any work,
work, utility, or service.
utility, or service.
utility, or service.
Sewers and sewage dis-
Main sewers.
posal.
Acquisition, construc-
Acquisition, construction,
Granting franchises
Water supply.
tion, operation, etc. of
operation, etc. of water
water works.
works.
Same as to transporta-
Same as to transportation
Ownership and operation
Transportation systems.
tion systems.
systems.
of any public utility.
^Maintenance of metro-
Maintenance of metro-
The Port.
politan police apart
politan police apart from
from local police.
local police.
Powers of Allegheny
Correctional institutions.
County, including
Parks and recreation
Metropolitan parks.
those relating to cor-
•Public libraries.
rectional institutions.
real hope of metropolitan consolidation, however, is recognized to be
along the general lines of the Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Boston projects.
Annexation, even if possible, cannot be profitably undertaken for whole
metropolitan areas because of the extreme diversity of the districts
involved. It cannot be wisely applied to the built up portions of the
area alone, because the poor but extensive remainder would be left to sink
under the weight of impossible financial burdens. Probably the best
solution is a metropolitan government for metropolitan needs, leaving
local problems to the minor units much as they are today.
An interesting variation of this plan is the proposal, favored by some
leaders in Chicago, of separate statehood for that city and at least its
Illinois environs. There is little reason to believe that the Illinois legisla-
ture would ever agree to give up the privilege of taxing Chicago property,
but if it could be brought to pass, separate statehood would offer many
advantages to the city itself. It would be relieved of taxation for down-
[ 491 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
state purposes. The relation of the metropolitan state government to
local units would be more commanding than that of the Greater City in
the federated city plan. If it were possible to apply the principle of
separate statehood to our three largest cities, giving them all their
metropolitan extent regardless of existing state lines, a great task of
simplification would be accomplished.
Short of a redressing of state lines, the only practical method of
solving metropolitan problems where more than one state is concerned
is by the method employed in the creation of the Port of New York
Authority — a treaty approved by Congress. The success achieved by this
Authority naturally leads to the query, cannot the same principle be
applied to the creation of a joint metropolitan authority dealing with
several functions of government ? Cannot such a treaty be international as
well as interstate, solving the problems of Detroit- Windsor or of the
Niagara frontier as some of the problems of New York and New Jersey
are now solved?
This dislocation of normal relationships between population and
units of local government is not, strictly speaking, a new phenomenon.
London had a metropolitan problem in the latter part of the eighteenth
century and has never ceased to have one. Philadelphia had one in the
second quarter of the nineteenth century, temporarily solved by con-
solidation with Philadelphia County in 1854. Boston had one partially
taken care of by the Sewer and Water Districts established in 1889 and
1895. The creation of Greater New York in 1897 for the moment
brought that metropolis under a single local government. But what was
occasional has now become universal. At the same time the proportions
of the problem have been enormously increased. Two decades have
witnessed a revolution, and there is not a considerable city in the country
today which has not its metropolitan problem. Annexation has failed as
a remedy. The expedient of special districts has been increasingly
invoked, but it is admittedly a mere expedient. The growing intensity of
the evils of disjointed local government has forced the consideration of
municipal expansion on an unprecedented scale, inevitably upon the
federated pattern.
VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
It is now possible to take a bird's eye view of population movements
in the United States as far as they are reflected in the growth and expan-
sion of the metropolitan community. Fully one-half of the people of this
country now live within an hour's motor journey of a city of 100,000 or
more. Three-quarters of the national increase in population between 1920
and 1930 took place within the immediate orbits of these larger cities.
f 492 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
The census classification of all incorporated places of 2,500 or more as
urban is increasingly less significant than a classification based upon
whether population is or is not contained within the sphere of influence of
a metropolitan center. The trend toward the metropolitan community
and the reaching out of such communities over an increasingly large
expanse of territory are the outstanding phases of the recent "drift to the
cities."
The censuses of 1910 and 1920 showed a concentration of population
based largely upon the centralization of industry. In other words the
population followed the factories. The census of 1930, with supplementary
evidence now available, indicates that the factors involved in metropolitan
growth during the past decade were primarily commercial and institu-
tional, with industry playing a relatively smaller role. The metropolitan
community, at least until the advent of the depression of 1929, offered an
increasing variety of jobs as well as more steady employment. It also
offered a wider variety of economic and cultural services. It took on more
and more the aspects of a coherent economic and cultural state, more
realistic in many ways than the existing political states.
The super-community, or city region, is largely a product of modern
means of communication, developed more extensively in local areas than
throughout the nation as a whole. Assume that the boundaries of an
ancient or medieval city were largely determined by the distance a man
could walk in two hours. This would give a practicable radius of eight
miles and a diameter of sixteen miles. The introduction of the motor car
would at once multiply these limits at least six times, extending the prac-
ticable city radius to at least fifty miles. The case of the modern super-city
is not quite so simple as this, since transportation by horse drawn stages,
by steamboats where waterways were adjacent and by steam railways,
extended the urban radius long before the coming of the automobile. But
the illustration is pertinent. Measured in time rather than linear space
the old boundaries of cities have shrunken and vast new areas have been
brought within the city influence.
The super-community, therefore, absorbs varying numbers of separate
local communities into its economic and cultural organization. Large
cities everywhere are becoming conscious of themselves as centers of
commercial provinces and are attempting to define and delineate their
primary trade areas. The evidence at hand seems to indicate that the
influence of the central city over these areas tends to diminish with dis-
tance outward. There is usually a line — not easy to determine since some
influences of the central city are more potent and more far reaching than
others — at which the territory of one center meets that of another. We
can, in fact, draw a map tentatively alloting the entire territory of conti-
nental United States to a comparatively small number of super-cities.
[ 493 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
These super-cities throughout the nation appear to be becoming more
nearly uniform in their economic and institutional structure. The frontier
type of city is gradually developing into a more mature type of metropolis.
This is shown in physical structure — in the growth of skyscraper office
buildings. It is shown also in the growing complexity of the industrial
and occupational pattern of the larger cities throughout the nation — by
the tendency toward wider distribution of talented or highly skilled
persons in the more specialized occupations.66 This increasing diversity
within the city and uniformity among the cities results in a higher degree
of local autonomy. The regional city tends to become more self-sufficient.
But this self-sufficiency is limited by the concentration of certain indus-
tries and of certain raw materials, and by a counter tendency toward a
closer functional interrelationship of the metropolitan centers of the
nation. Just as communities within a metropolitan region preserve a
certain degree of independence and local identity, yet are closely bound
within the economic and cultural network of the central city, so the
regional communities themselves are independent in many things, yet
are parts of a national urban system.
But while the role of the great city in the nation at large has been
growing in importance and changing in nature, even more radical and
important changes have taken place within the city itself. In the first
place, every large city has experienced rapid shifts in its local population
since the end of the World War. The suburban drift has not only increased
in volume but has altered in character. The outward movement in recent
years has been largely among the white collar classes, who have created
a definite new problem by removing themselves to an increasing extent
from the political city while remaining within the sphere of influence of
the economic and cultural city. They have drawn after them a number of
local institutions, business outlets and municipal services, creating a real
rus in urbe in the suburban territories. Industry likewise has tended to
migrate outward, not for the same reasons but because increasing con-
gestion in the more central districts has hampered its activities and added
to its production costs. The heavy industries go first and farthest; the
lighter ones and those which are most dependent on proximity to their
metropolitan customers do not go so soon or so far; but the tendency in
nearly every case is centrifugal.67
When individuals, businesses and industries move out in this way, at
the rate which has recently marked these migrations, they leave a partial
vacuum. The general effect of this drift, coupled with the more intensive
use of land brought about by large structural units, is to hasten the
obsolescence of much of the older pattern of the city. This applies to
66 The supporting data for this statement will be presented in the monograph.
67 Detailed studies on this point for the early post-war years are to be found in volumes
IA and IB of the Regional Survey of Neio York and Its Environs, New York, 1928.
[ 494 1
METROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES
practically every type of institution and service. Every large city is con-
fronted on the one hand with the problem of increasing congestion in
certain areas and, on the other, with that of revitalizing its blighted areas.
The deteriorated districts are rarely rehabilitated by private enterprise,
though in some cities, notably New York, blighted areas have been
restored, at least partially, by the erection of high class apartment houses.
But these areas are always in competition with newer subdivisions which
offer a more inviting field for private enterprise. Usually lying close to the
main business center of the city they become the habitats of the vicious
and criminal elements of the population. Without the economic incentive
toward repair or replacement, buildings are allowed to deteriorate. Land
values decline, assessments are lost to the city, transportation problems
are aggravated by the fact that residence is further removed from busi-
ness. This actual misuse and underuse of land creates a difficult situation
for the city planner, the city assessor, the health department, the police
department, the transportation managers and the housing and welfare
agencies.
While the deteriorated areas are largely allowed to go to waste there
is an intensive exploitation of certain other areas within the city and
toward its periphery. There result problems of transportation and traffic
which are among the gravest that confront any modern city. In some
cities the growth of private transportation by motor car has tended to
disorganize the mass transportation facilities originally existing and has
at the same time created a new traffic problem. There are many intricate
details and differences among cities in this field, which cannot be dealt
with adequately in this chapter but will find their rightful place in the
accompanying monograph. It may be pointed out here, however, that
the loss of business by rapid transit lines to motor transportation has
not been universal. Nearly everywhere the surface street car line has lost
ground. In New York City, however, in normal times, the rapid transit
facilities of all kinds have never been adequate to the demands put upon
them.
Nearly every one of the new problems of great cities comes home
sooner or later to the governmental agencies. The last decade has wit-
nessed an unprecedented expansion of all types of municipal utilities and
services. At the same time many of the governmental functions have
failed to keep pace with the economic and cultural expansion of urban
life. The multiplicity of separate governmental and taxation bodies in
every large metropolitan aggregation constitutes one of the most serious
difficulties confronting the metropolitan community today. Because city
planning is by definition limited to the obsolescent political city it is now
being rapidly superseded by regional planning. But regional planning on
a scale commensurate with actual needs is thwarted by the large number
[ 495 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of politically independent communities with which planning bodies have
to deal.
The development of the new super-city points, therefore, to the need
of some sort of super-metropolitan government. This problem and the
steps already taken to cope with it were presented in the preceding sec-
tion. It is quite apparent that the old procedure of annexation of surround-
ing territory by a central city is no longer a satisfactory solution. The
spread of population under the influence of motor transport is far too
rapid and too extensive to be dealt with adequately by annexation, even if
annexation were not vigorously resisted by most of the outlying communi-
ties of most cities. Some plan of coordination of governmental functions
must be developed before the political unity of the real functional metro-
politan community can be achieved.
To sum up, the past decade has definitely witnessed the emergence of
a new population and functional entity — the metropolitan community
or super-city. So far as can be seen this new entity will characterize our
national urban life for an indefinite time to come. The next decade may
be expected to bring about further efforts to digest it into the economic,
governmental and cultural pattern of the nation.
496 ]
CHAPTER X
RURAL LIFE
BY J. H. KOLB AND EDMUND DE S. BRUNNER
IF the problem of adapting metropolitan communities to the economic,
governmental and cultural pattern of the nation is one which presses
for attention, that of present and future trends in rural life raises
many questions which need to be understood in formulating local or
national policies.
Chapter X shows that open country areas are losing much of their
former isolation and are acquiring a far greater interdependence with
other sections of society while still maintaining an identity of their
own. This interdependence is noted in relation to the village or small
town which has gained in importance and in stability of population,
specializing its services and becoming the center for much of rural social
life. As a result of this union of open country and village, it appears that
a larger and more modern community has emerged. Finally, the relation-
ship of this rural community with the city is found to have assumed more
importance than in the past and at the same time and for some of the
same reasons the classifications "rural" and "urban" are losing much of
their distinctiveness.
The principal sources of the data for this chapter are of two kinds:
detailed field investigations and special analyses of census materials
both published and unpublished. Field investigations were carried on by
the Institute of Social and Religious Research in 1921 in 21 agricultural
counties well distributed over the country, and in 1924 in 140 carefully
selected agricultural villages in every region of the United States except
New England. Field workers of the Institute restudied both the counties
and the villages in 1930—1931. Intensive field restudies of five counties
were made in cooperation with four colleges of agriculture, Cornell,
Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin, the periods between the earlier and the
later studies ranging from eight to fifteen years.
An analysis was made of the 1930 census data for 177 agricultural
villages, including the 140 mentioned above, and was compared with the
results of a similar study of the 1920 census returns made by the Institute
of Social and Religious Research. Practically all of these census data were
unpublished. A study was also undertaken of certain published and
unpublished census data for 349 counties lying in concentric tiers around
[ 497 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
eighteen cities. This study covered comparisons of the years 1910, 1920
and 1930 for all censuses except that of distribution, which was under-
taken for the first time in 1930. J
I. RECENT CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE
Before the turn of the century the American farmer was annually
exporting 500,000,000 bushels of cereals, mostly to Europe; but in the
early years of the century, spurred by the coming of the automobile and
the expansion of the industries upon which it depended, the great growth
of the city began, based in part on immigration from Europe. With a great
increase in the number of mouths to feed at home cereal exports dropped
by more than two-thirds in a little more than a decade, on the whole with
financial gain to the farmer.
American Agriculture and the World War. — The World War brought
a change. With millions of her agriculturists leaving their fields to fight,
Europe began to call for food, and by the time the United States entered
the struggle it became apparent, as was proclaimed throughout the
countryside, that food would win the war. The reserve power of American
agriculture was brought into play. Food was produced and sold almost
on a monopoly basis, for competing areas (like Australia) were too far
from submarine blockaded markets and speed in delivery was of para-
mount importance. The American farmer was back in the European
market and back under the stimulus of the highest prices he had ever
known, with higher still foretold. Self-interest and then patriotism stimu-
lated the farmer to expand production by mechanizing his cultivation, by
increasing his holdings and by bringing a larger acreage of less productive
soil under cultivation.
The farmer, therefore, invested heavily in land and machinery. He
invested also in social utilities: good roads, consolidated schools, better
churches and to a lesser extent libraries, health services and the like.
Much of his payment was in terms of mortgages on future profits, for with
money easy to borrow and the ratio of the prices he received to those he
paid more than 10 percent above 1910—1914 levels he was as unassailed
by doubts about the future as were the urban prophets of perpetual
prosperity in 1928-1929.
Post-war Prosperity and Perplexity. — Again the scene changed.
Post-war prosperity seemed headed for dangerous inflation in city and
country alike. The Federal Reserve Bank took action to stem the tide.
War-ruined Europe found its purchasing power crippled. Australian and
South American farm products began to compete with American once
1 The more detailed results of these various investigations are published in the mono-
graph in this series entitled Rural Social Trends.
\ 498 1
RURAL LIFE
more. Hungry and all but bankrupt countries began feverishly to raise
their own food. From a war-stimulated peak of 533,000,000 bushels in
1921-1922 cereal exports dropped rapidly to 210,000,000 bushels in
1925-1926. Mounting unsold surpluses resulted.
The situation was complicated by other factors. Marginal and semi-
marginal lands had been brought into cultivation and were not to be
returned to grass or forest without a struggle. The dietary habits of the
nation had changed. Within the present century per capita consumption
of wheat, for instance, has declined forty-five pounds or more than 20
percent. Fashion dictated that women's clothes should need less material
and hence less cotton and related products. The displacement of draft
animals by the machine meant a further curtailment in the demand for
products of the soil. The machine increased the per man efficiency of the
agriculturists more rapidly than workers migrated from farm to city. The
main effort of tax supported agricultural extension service had been
devoted to increasing production as an end in itself with little time or
effort given to study of the consequences.2
The inevitable crash came. Farm incomes dropped more than 50
percent in one year, 1921, and in the export crop area 85 percent, while
the wholesale price level of all commodities dropped only 37 percent.
Farm bankruptcies rose from 1.5 per 10,000 farms, the average from 1905
to 1914, to 20 in 1920 and 21.51 in 1922 and have averaged about 100
since that time. Rural banks failed by the hundreds throughout the
decade.
Values of farm land and buildings, which had risen from 16 billions
in 1900 to 34 billions in 1910 and to an inflated peak of 66 billions in 1920,
had dropped to less than 48 billions by 1930. Farm indebtedness rose
rapidly, mortgage debt on owner operated farms alone increasing from
1.7 billions in 1910 to more than 4 billions in 1920 and to about 77
millions additional in 1930. In 1920, 54.8 percent of the farmers (full
owners) were debt free; in 1930, 53.9 percent. Meanwhile the average
farmer's equity declined about one-half. In all these trends there were
wide variations among census regions and crop areas, for agriculture is
a group of highly diversified callings variously affected by a multitude
of factors.
This was the first phase of the depression. It was coincident in part
with an industrial depression of large proportions. In 1922 industry
apparently recovered. Stimulated by orders from abroad, which were
largely paid for by money borrowed from the United States, and acceler-
ated by installment buying, industrial America, with but slight hesitation
now and then, poured forth an ever increasing stream of goods accom-
panied by mounting profits. Mergers, stock dividends and extra dividends
2 On agricultural productivity, see Chap. II.
\ 499 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
swept the public into security markets in an effort to share doubly in the
good times.3
Agriculture lagged. Its depression continued save among a few special-
ized types. In part this was due to the continuance of causes already
recounted. In part other causes operated. Industrial prosperity kept
wages high, increasing the spread between the rural and the urban dollar,
so that by 1927 the ratio of prices received to prices paid by the farmer
stood at 85. The prices received by the farmer between 1922 and 1928
averaged 135 percent of the pre-war level, but during the same period
industrial wages averaged 221 percent of that level. Freight rates, too,
remained high or rose; handling and selling charges increased; the farmer
received an ever smaller share of the consumer's dollar.
Moreover, taxes soared. Better schools and roads were built with
borrowed money. Throughout this period taxes that had been but 130
percent of the pre-war level in 1919 went from 232 percent in 1922 to 266
percent in 1930. Furthermore, these taxes had to be paid for with products
that had declined about 35 percent in value from the 1918-1920 levels
between 1921 and 1930 and 60 percent in 1931. They were based, more-
over, on the value of real property inexpertly assessed in accordance
with a tax system devised when the United States was an agricultural
nation not far removed from a barter economy, and of questionable value
in a highly industrialized, money economy. Study after study by state
colleges of agriculture has shown that the farmer pays a far higher share
of income to the tax collector than the city man.4
As with taxes, so with debt. Increasingly as the years passed and the
dollar approached pre-war levels, the payment of principal and interest
became oppressive.5 The change toward the much greater purchasing
power of the dollar worked a hardship on the farmer with a debt in the
same way that, as ex-Secretary Mellon pointed out, it has worked a
hardship on America's European debtors.
Temporary Upward Trends. — But despite all these handicaps agri-
culture seemed to be working out of its difficulties in 1928, as Secretary
Hyde stated in his annual report for 1929. Bank failures and bankruptcies
had lessened in frequency. The farmer was beginning to adjust his produc-
tion to the increased consumer demand for vegetables, fruit and dairy
products. Taxes were at their highest but at least they had stopped rising.
The ratio of prices received to prices paid by the farmer had reached 90.
3 On industrial expansion, see Chap. V.
4 Fifteen of these studies are summarized in Taxation on Farm Property by Whitney
Coombs (United States Department of Agriculture, Technical Bulletin, 172, February
1930).
6 The indexes with reference to agriculture used throughout this chapter are those
quoted or devised by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the United States Depart-
ment of Agriculture; cf. the Bureau's monthly publication, The Agricultural Situation.
[ 500 ]
RURAL LIFE
Thousands of farmers, beaten in the struggle, and perhaps spurred by
foreclosure, had answered the siren call of the factory whistle. Production
costs had been reduced. The decline in land values seemed to have halted.
Gross farm income reached 12 billions, a gain of one-fourth over the figures
of a few years before.6 Then, coincident with Soviet Russia's return to
the export market, came a whole series of misfortunes for the farmer : the
industrial depression of 1929 with its attendant collapse of security and
of commodity prices and its curtailment of urban buying power through
unprecedented unemployment; the crisis in Europe, bringing exports to
their lowest level since the World War; the failure of 4,000 rural banks;
and the virtual bankruptcy of hundreds of municipalities unable to col-
lect taxes. As always, raw materials fell first and most rapidly. The ratio
of prices received by the farmers to prices paid declined to 80 in 1930, to
62 in 1931 and to 48 in June, 1932. The farmers' embryonic recovery
of 1928 was stillborn. The general economic trend of the decade was
downward. In 1932 the farmer faces a disturbed world grappling with
problems similar to those he has contended with for a decade, a situation
that in turn further depresses his own.
Rural Life and National Well Being.— The first third of the twentieth
century has seen the old forms of social and community organization dis-
appear or undergo considerable modification and new forms appear in
their place. There has been improvement in institutions and social serv-
ices, but an improvement which the farmer believes has not kept pace
with urban institutional changes. These years have witnessed a gigantic
shifting of population with all that involves for family and community
life. On the economic side, the period has been characterized by the passing
of the major source of finance for rural institutions and programs, namely
the appreciation in land values.
For thirty years following 1890, whether prices were low or high, the
growing demand for the land plus the improvements the farmer made
netted him an average annual appreciation, in terms of rising land values,
of 8 percent on his 1890 investment. Those days are gone. During the
last decade $20,000,000,000 have been wrung out of the capital values
of agriculture. Profits must now come by operating and sales efficiency.
Only thus can the standards of family and community living achieved in
part by these dividends be sustained. His market at home temporarily
crippled, the farmer sees small hope of holding his own in the world
market. He sees Russia pouring forth wheat upon the glutted world
market. He finds the mills of Manchester seeking means to be freed from
paying for American cotton in the gold that is demanded. He sees nearly
every nation striving for agricultural self sufficiency. Can he under these
conditions maintain his vaunted American standard of life? To him, as
6 U. S. Department of Agriculture, Report of the Secretary of Agriculture, 1929, pp. 1-81.
[ 501 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
to the groups that sell him goods and services, to the railroads that carry
his crops and to the investors who hold $10,000,000,000 worth of his
promises to pay, the question of the future welfare of agriculture, in the
light of conditions as they are, is of paramount importance.
II. OPEN COUNTRY AREAS LOSE ISOLATION AND GAIN INTERDEPENDENCE
The more general background necessary for an understanding of
recent rural social changes has been sketched in the preceding pages.
It is now proposed to view the changes and trends in rural life at closer
range. The open country with its people and its farms becomes the logical
point from which to start. Isolation is no longer a characteristic of this
section of society. Its people, its occupations, its institutions and its
organized group life have become interdependent with the rest of society,
while still preserving an integrity of their own.
Rural Population Changes.7 — During the period under consideration
the United States has shifted from a rural to an urban nation. By 1920
urban dwellers were in a majority. The census of that year showed that the
rural life which had dominated and characterized the nation for the first
century of its history had yielded its primacy. Rural people had become
a minority group for the first time. Similarly, manufacturing and mechani-
cal industries had displaced agriculture as a chief source of gainful em-
ployment. By 1930 the shift was still more evident, owing in large part
to the unprecedented migration of farm and village population to the
cities. The seeming economic and social advantages of the city, expanding
urban industries and the mechanization of agriculture, coupled with
agricultural depression, swept approximately 15 millions of the farm popu-
lation cityward in one decade, a number equal to more than two-fifths
of those on the farms in 1920. This trend was only partly offset up to
1929 by the counter-movement of some 10 millions from the cities to the
farms.8 The decade was thus characterized by a rapid turnover of the
farm population, an amazing mobility. Migration from rural to urban
America is, of course, no new thing. It is estimated that at least half of
the rural born children went cityward in the half-century prior to 1920,
but in the decade recently closed the migration was far more one of
families and less one of individuals. Nevertheless it should be noted that
rural America still has more than one-half the children of the nation, a
fact of major importance to education and to the city.
The recent industrial distress has given renewed proof of the mobility
of the population, for it has reversed its movement. Young as was the
depression when the 1930 census was taken hi April of that year, the
7 For further discussion, see Chaps. I and IX.
8 Based on estimates by Division of Rural Population and Rural Life of the United
States Department of Agriculture.
[ 502 ]
RURAL LIFE
returns showed that in every state during the previous year about twice
as many persons came to the farm from the city as left it for the city.9
Many of those leaving the cities were once farmers or sons of farmers who
saw in rural life the security of at least a self-sufficient existence. Since
that time reports of an unprecedented number of inquiries regarding
farms received by federal and state departments of agriculture, by farm
loan agencies and by some of the transcontinental railroads, indicate that
thousands more have felt a similar urge. Farms at their present low prices
are in larger demand than for some years past. Village homes are shelter-
ing young people who have lost their employment. Some have come to
ride out the storm ; some aver that the crowded cities will not again take
them from the freedom of the country. Time alone can tell whether the
widely heralded trend toward a completely industrialized country, im-
porting its non-perishable foods from frontier lands, has been stayed or
only checked. It is quite likely that the number of farmers in 1932,
despite low prices, was greater than ever before and that these urban
emigres will make competition more severe in village and country.
Occupational and Industrial Changes. — Among the great occupational
groupings listed by the census, agriculture alone between 1910 and 1930
showed a decrease in both the actual number of workers it supports and
their proportion to all workers. The decrease in proportion has been
continuous since 1820, while the proportion employed in every other
major group has increased. The decline was measured by hundredths and
tenths of percents at first, agriculture dropping from 32.14 to 30.18 per-
cent of the population ten years of age and over between 1820 and 1850,
during which time manufacturing rose from 5.43 to 7.67 percent and
trade plus transportation from 1.12 to 2.52 percent. The burst of indus-
trial activity and railroad building in the middle of the century carried
the agriculturally employed down to 23.71 percent of the population ten
years of age and over by 1870 and manufacturing up to 9.43 percent.
The industrial depression of the 1870's and the opening of the trans-
Mississippi area through homesteading held agriculture steady for a dec-
ade, but by 1890 the decline had again set in. Barely a fifth of America's
inhabitants ten years of age and over were then employed in agriculture
and by 1910 less than one-sixth, while industry claimed more than one-
seventh and trade plus transportation nearly one-tenth. By 1920 the
transition of the United States from an agricultural to an industrial nation
was definitely marked by the passing of agriculture from first place as a
means of livelihood. Between 1910 and 1920 the proportion of its em-
ployees to the total population ten years of age and over fell from 16.35
to 13.20 percent, while the industrially employed achieved first place by
9 It is possible that the number leaving the farm was under-estimated but hardly enough
to account for the considerable and consistent difference shown.
[ 503 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
lifting their proportion from 14.85 to 15.49. By 1930 industry further
increased its lead over agriculture, the respective proportions being 14.50
and 10.62 percent. During these 110 years since 1820, moreover, the
proportion of the population gainfully employed rose from 44.7 to 49.5
percent.
During this century industry also expanded in the rural areas. Not
only have many of the cities of today grown from meager beginnings
such as saw mills and small iron furnaces set down in rustic surroundings,
but at the present time some 4,000 small centers of industry hold a
population of approximately 4,000,000 persons who are in the country
but not of it. Such industrial villages are the mill towns of the south and
mining and lumbering villages. These places, which are neither rural nor
urban but are surrounded by a population of farmers and those who
serve farmers, present peculiar problems of social organization, especially
to school and church administrators.10
Thus it is that the rural non-farm element in the population, com-
prising largely dwellers in agricultural and industrial villages, has formed
an ever larger part of the rural population, so that by 1930 the non-farm
group made up more than 43 percent of the total rural population and the
census presented for the first time separate analyses of rural-farm and
rural non-farm population.
Even members of the farm population saw opportunity for gain in
the growing variety of the economic life about them. In 1920 a special
census study of eight carefully selected counties showed that 10.7 per-
cent of the farm population was gainfully employed in other than agri-
cultural pursuits, ranging from 4.7 in Ellis County, Texas to 24.1 percent
in King County, Washington. This tendency seemed to be increasing up
to 1929, if several studies by state colleges of agriculture are representa-
tive of the total situation.
Farms and Farming. — These occupational shifts were of course ac-
companied and indeed influenced, by changes in farm management and
technique, changes registered in the number and size of farms, in the
use of machinery, in products raised and in land tenure.11
Before summarizing these, however, it is important to emphasize the
fact that conditions among the fruit growers of the Pacific Coast on their
small but highly cultivated holdings vary sharply from those of the wheat
growers with their hundreds and even thousands of acres, that the diary
farmer and the cotton grower, the truck farmer and the grower of corn
and of hops have few conditions in common. In short, agriculture is a
complex affair the conditions of which vary according to crop, climate,
10 Cf. Brunner, Edmund de S., Industrial Village Churches, Institute of Social and
Religious Research, New York, 1930.
11 On agricultural trends, see Chap. II.
[ 504 ]
RURAL LIFE
soil, region and even race, and these varying factors in turn variously
affect the social structure and population. Thus many significant trends
are concealed by national figures but none the less national totals do show
certain main tendencies which have significance.
Thus it is clear that the number of farmers in the United States is
approaching its maximum unless a self-sufficing agriculture returns as a
result of a prolonged depression. In 1930 there were slightly fewer farms
than in 1910. As reported by the census, the totals for the two years were
6,288,648 and 6,361,502 respectively. There were, however, more acres
in farms, the 1930 total being 986.7 millions as against 878.8 in 1910. The
aggregate acreage in crops however was 371.6 million acres in 1930 and
362 millions in 1931. Obviously the average size of farms has been increas-
ing, the gain being from 146.2 to 156.9 acres between 1900 and 1930, most
of which increase occurred after 1925. These data together with the very
small increase in manager operated farms shown by the 1930 census
indicate that large scale corporation farming as against the family
managed farm has not made great progress. Despite this the number of
small farms has been gaining. The ratio of farms under 100 acres to all
farms went from 57.4 to 59.4 between 1900 and 1930. Near cities espe-
cially more farming is being done on plots of less than 50 acres. Neverthe-
less the number of large farms has also increased, the ratio of those over
500 acres having risen from 2.6 to 3.8 in this period. This gain has been
marked chiefly west of the Mississippi River where the mechanized farm,
whether operated by a corporation or not, has become a dominant factor.
It follows from all this that it is the "medium sized" farms which are
decreasing in relative importance.
Nationally, too, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of
farms operated by tenants as compared to owners, though this tendency
was markedly slowed down between 1900 and 1925. In 1890, 28.4 percent
of the farms were tenant operated; in 1900, 35.3; in 1925, 38.7; in 1930,
42.4 percent.
These changes were accompanied by changes in the type of crop
raised. The rise of cities is almost always correlated with an increase in
truck, fruit and dairy farms of small acreage. Wheat growing has been
pushed even further west, southwest and northwest. It is for the most
part a crop of sparsely settled, not of densely settled areas. It calls for
batteries of machines and wide open spaces. New varieties of drouth
resistant plants and improvements in machinery and in dry farming
methods made it possible for wheat to invade the semi-arid areas where
cattle once ranged. Similarly cotton growing has declined in the old south
and gained in the southwest where the waving wheat and the bobbing
cotton ball meet.12
12 See maps given in Chap. II.
[ 505 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The influence of the tractor on this conquest of millions of untilled
acres for agriculture has been considerable. Its use increased more than
ten-fold from 1918 to 1930 and more than three-fold from 1920 to 1930,
in which year 920,021 tractors were in use on the farms of the United
States. It is probable that there has been little expansion since then.
Indeed in 1931 from many sources reports came of idle tractors on farms
where animal power tilled fewer acres.
Certain it is, as the census returns show, that agriculture is growing
more specialized as time goes on. Diversification in many areas means
diversification within a general type, as truck farming, or a shift to meet
the demands of nearby urban markets. And by these changes social life
is inevitably influenced.
Organized Group Life. — The response of the farmer to the changes
of the last twenty years as shown in his organized social life is the next
point to be considered.
The Cooperatives. — On the business side the farmer has faced a cor-
porate civilization not with corporation farming but with economic
cooperation. Nevertheless he has adapted corporation techniques to his
own ends, slowly at first and against opposition, but more rapidly of late
and with government approval and assistance. The Division of Coopera-
tive Marketing of the Federal Farm Board thus summarizes the growth
of the cooperative marketing movement :
Num-
Num-
Year
ber of
asso-
Volume of
business
Member-
ship0
Year
ber of
asso-
Volume of
business
Member-
ship-
ciations
ciations
1915
5,424
$ 635,839,000
651,186
1930
12,000
$2,500,000,000
3,100,000
1925
10,803
2,400,000,000
2,700,000
1931
11,950
2,400,000,000
3,000,000
a Gross figures. It is generally thought that, correcting for duplications, about 2,000,000 individuals are
members of cooperatives.
That such numbers of the individualistic American farmers, grand-
sons of the pioneers, should pool their resources within so short a time
represents a dramatic change of attitude. That the farm cooperatives,
despite mistakes in leadership and policy, despite the trying years of
depression, despite the opposition of competitors, should hold their
membership so nearly at its peak and with increased volume of business,
denotes a significant trend. The active support of this movement by the
Federal Farm Board ever since its organization in 1929 has been one
sustaining factor in the situation.
The Extension Services. — An important influence in rural life is the
work done by the extension services of state colleges of agriculture in
cooperation with the federal department. This has grown to large pro-
[ 506 ]
RURAL LIFE
portions in the last fifteen years. In 1915 about $3,500,000 was expended
in this effort at adult education among farmers and their wives. By 1931
the budget for this work has grown more than seven-fold; the proportion
of counties having agricultural agents, 77.2 percent, was more than
double the 1915 figure, and similarly the counties having home demon-
stration agents increased from 11 to 43 percent of the total number.13
Much of this work is done by projects such as soil improvement, crops,
animal husbandry, nutrition, clothing, home management, community
activities and the like. Much of it is done through thousands of local
groups of farmers or their wives directed by a quarter-million local lay
leaders.
Farmers9 Organizations. — Another significant development of the last
ten or fifteen years from the standpoint of social organization has been
the formation of thousands of farm groups organized around technical
agricultural interests such as breeders, dairymen's and poultrymen's
associations and scores of others. Sometimes organized on a county basis,
they are more often local or, if countrywide, a federation of locals. In
addition there are among others such national organizations as the
American Farm Bureau Federation, the Grange and the Farmers' Union.
In the 140 village communities, located in every region of the country,
visited in this investigation, there were 160 local units of these national
bodies in the open country parts of the communities, an increase of 30
over 1924. These totals do not include the locals that meet in the village
itself. The boys' and girls' clubs known as 4-H clubs, sponsored by the
Agricultural Extension Service, which greatly increased in membership,
were also frequently centered in the open country or in small hamlets
outside the villages.
Country Church, School and Store. — Almost from pioneer days the
farmer has had the country church, school and store. In the last decade
of change and increased facilities of communication thousands of these
agencies have ceased to function, though tens of thousands of them still
exist.
In the case of the schools, as is shown in greater detail later, there have
been thousands of consolidations, but there are still about 151,000 one-
and two-room rural schools. In many cases open country districts have
joined enlarged high school districts but have kept their elementary
schools. In 1930, in the 140 communities visited in field work, 225 of the
1,510 open country schools found in 1924 had closed, but the net decrease
was not so large. Obviously the open country school is still a large part
of the rural educational picture.
So, too, a surprising number of open country churches were found to
have survived the inter-survey period, 1924-1930, especially in the south
13 Reports of the United States Department of Agriculture.
[ 507 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
and middle west. The closer to a village the open country church is
located the less is its chance of survival, but in the zones beyond direct
village influence the open country churches still tend to flourish. Of the
64,000 open country and hamlet churches in existence in 1920 more than
four-fifths were still functioning in 1930, and outside the immediate
influence of villages and towns the number now appears to be holding
constant.14
Open country stores seem to be decreasing more rapidly than other
institutions, if the survey of the 140 village communities and studies in
Ohio, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska are representative, but the 1930
United States Census of Distribution15 showed that rural general stores
still accounted for one-tenth of the retail trade in places of less than 10,000
population, and hence for about 3 percent of the total retail trade of the
nation.
It would appear, therefore, that regardless of the evident villageward
trend of rural life to be discussed later, the farmer is giving up the open
country social organizations established during the last century only
when it appears advantageous for him to do so. In some regions and in
certain types of situations in all regions, the decline of these institutions
has been, at least for the present, halted.
Country Neighborhoods and Social Life. — The neighborhood appears to
show the same situation. It has been regarded as a small locality group,
smaller than a village, often centering at a crossroads or other small
center and characterized by the services of such institutions as school,
church and store, or school, church and farm bureau local. Obviously
such groups would be the first to feel the effects of the larger integration
of community interests on a village-country basis. Five hundred and
thirteen such groups were found in the 140 village centered communities
studied in 1924. One hundred and eighteen had passed away by 1930 but
24 new groupings had been formed. The net loss, therefore, was less
than one in five. The greatest loss was found where improved roads were
relatively new. Where they had been enjoyed for some years the rate of
neighborhood disintegration had slowed down. Moreover, where the old
type rural neighborhood had gone special interest groups of neighbors had
often been formed, each enlisting those interested by the particular
objective of the group. Such groups are represented by the study classes
in scores of subjects from music and art to auto mechanics that annually
enlist thousands of persons in rural Delaware, by little theater groups in
North Dakota, North Carolina, Colorado, New York, Ohio and Wis-
consin and by hundreds of similar enterprises that have sprung up,
14 Compare with figures for the entire country in Chap. XX.
15 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fifteenth Census of The United States, Census of Dis-
tribution.
[ 508 ]
RURAL LIFE
especially within the last half decade, in thousands of open country and
hamlet localities.
A number of explanations for these changes could be noted, but
certainly among the factors responsible, in the last analysis, for the steady
but slow decline in neighborhoods and in neighborhood institutions such
as schools, stores and churches, are the improved facilities for transporta-
tion and communication. Without these the enlarged type of village cen-
tered community with its expanded services and contacts could not have
arisen. These facilities make possible not only the multiplication of con-
tacts over a larger area than the farmers of the horse and buggy stage
knew; they also make possible the multiplication of local contacts.16
Neighboring farms are only a few minutes distant, not an hour. The
farmer is adjusting himself rapidly and willingly to the new and larger
community. That is not to be questioned. He has sacrificed many of his old
service institutions. In many places he seems also intent upon retaining
something of the old social life. In others he is persistently building some-
thing to take the place of the old, something to fit the modern age, some-
thing that will express his new interests. It is this perhaps that makes the
more important another aspect of rural social change, the increasing inte-
gration of the countryman into the village and town community. Like the
urbanite who, utilizing what the city offers, shares more intimately in the
life of a Greenwich Village, a Gold Coast or a Morningside Heights,
the country man is experimenting with a social life with more than one
center and with more than one set of interests. He is altering his immedi-
ate locality organization, recognizing himself all the while as a part of
the village community.17
III. VILLAGES ACQUIRE GREATER STABILITY AND
ATTEMPT TO SPECIALIZE
Just as the open country has discovered a new interdependence with
the rest of society, so villages or small towns find themselves in a changing
situation. Highways and automobiles now make it possible for the farmer
and his family to drive to or through several villages in the routine of a
half day's shopping tour. In like fashion the village finds itself at the
crossroads for city travelers and visitors from other villages. Therefore, in
a real sense, it faces, Janus-like, both the country and the city, having and
sharing the characteristics of each. Most important of all, the villages
have come to occupy an enlarging place in the rural community during
the last decade.
16 See Chap. IV.
17 Note special studies and discussion of housing in relation to community in the Presi-
dent's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership, Preliminary Reports, XII
and XX.
[ 509 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The village has always played a part in American rural life. In the
pioneering days it served as the focal point for the land settlement and
development in New England. Even today it there continues to be the
center for rural life and local government, content to share the common
life of the community, unincorporated and undifferentiated. Elsewhere the
situation has always been different. The impelling desire to acquire owner-
ship of land quickly took the settlers out on the farms. The village or town
centers came later and they were often made up of a more heterogeneous
population. They frequently developed a certain independence; they
confessed to dreams of becoming metropolises. Incorporation was freely
resorted to and a basis was laid for certain town-country differences of
understanding. Those concerned with agriculture and rural life were
likely to pass villages by with too little regard.
Wider Relations of Villages Recognized. — It can be truly said, there-
fore, that a significant trend in the period under study has been the
greater attention given to the village or small town by students of rural
society. Galpin in 1914 first emphasized this village-country interdepend-
ence in his coinage of the term "rurbanism." Brunner and Fry in 1925,
both by special census analysis and by field work, set out in systematic
fashion the characteristics of villages, that is, places between 250 and
2,500 population.18 In 1930 the United States Census recognized the
importance of the village for the first time by giving certain details on the
population of places between 1,000 and 2,500 population.19
A study of the villages of the United States for the period 1910 to 1930
shows among other trends significant changes in population, in the
structure of population, in the ways of earning a living and therefore in
the functions that villages perform. These are the principal points to be
discussed in this section.
Up to 1910 the population of incorporated villages and hamlets, i.e.
places of less than 2,500 population, was a constantly increasing element
of the rural population.20 Since 1910 the proportion which such incor-
porated places bear to total rural population has been nearly constant at
about 17 percent (17.4 percent in 1920; 17.1 percent in 1930). In terms
of the total population of the country, incorporated places of less than
2,500 represented 8.9 percent in 1910, 8.5 percent in 1920, and 7.5 percent
in 1930. It is important to notice that more than nine million people lived
in the incorporated places of less than 2,500 population in 1930. If the
18 Galpin, C. J.f The Social Anatomy of the Rural Community, University of Wisconsin,
College of Agriculture, Research Bulletin 34, 1914; Brunner, Hughes and Patten, American
Agricultural Villages, Institute of Social and Religious Research, New York, 1927; Fry,
C. Luther, American Villagers, Institute of Social and Religious Research, New York,
1926.
19 Fifteenth Census of the United States, op. tit., vol. I, Population, Table 16, pp. 47-61.
20 In this, as in the previous studies, a village is defined as a place of 250 to 2,500 popula-
tion and a hamlet as a place of fewer than 250 people.
[ 510 ]
RURAL LIFE
unincorporated villages could be included, as they were counted by Fry
in 1920, another five million or more people would be added.21 This means
that approximately one in every eight persons in the United States lives
in a village. If small cities of less than 10,000 population were to be added
to the total rural population — and they should be since their accessibility
and their service to rural society have greatly increased in recent years — a
total of 64,434,969, or 52 percent of the total population of the United
States, would be reached. Of this number approximately 30 millions, or a
little less than one-half, live on farms.
Do Villages Grow? — Attention must next be directed to that persisting
question of whether or not villages or small towns are growing, dying or
holding their own, for any attempt to study the changing place of the
village in rural America must take this matter into consideration.
In considering village growth the caution suggested in the census
report was observed, namely, that the same sample be used throughout
the period of comparison.22 Therefore all of the 8,900 incorporated places
falling within the "village" definition (250 to 2,500 population) in the
year 1910 were followed through the 1920 and the 1930 enumerations,
even though about 1,000 of them had so increased in size by 1930 that they
came within the census definition of "urban." Conversely, all villages
incorporated since 1910 are disregarded, as are urban places that declined
into the village category, or places of less than 250 population in 1910 that
grew into the village classification.
Measures of Growth. — On this basis, then, three measures of population
growth or decline were employed, namely, the rate of growth, the amount
of growth, and the number of villages growing or declining more or less
than one percent a year. In so brief a discussion the results of these three
measures cannot be presented in detail.23 Suffice it to say that on all three
counts incorporated villages were found to be gaining. The results of the
first and the last of these measures are summarized in Tables 1 and 2.
From Table 1 it is evident that villages are growing at about the
national rate of population growth, which was 14.9 percent from 1910 to
1920, 16.1 percent from 1920 to 1930, and 33.5 percent from 1910 to
1930. Regional variations are important to note, as are the differences in
the two decades.
In Table 2 the points of special interest are the variations of growth
according to size and the central core of villages that are relatively sta-
tionary, not losing or gaining more than 20 percent, i.e. 1 percent a year.
21 Fry, American Villagers, op. cit. There is every reason to believe that a 1930 count
would show this increase, since the "rural: non-farm" population increased 18 percent
over 1920.
22 Cf. U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1920, Popula-
tion, vol. I, p. 57.
23 This will be done in detail in the monograph.
[ 511 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
When 1920 and 1930 figures are compared substantially the same trends
are shown.
The third measure, amount of growth, was made by placing each
village on a correlation plot representing its population in 1910 as com-
pared with 1920, 1920 as compared with 1930, and 1910 as compared
TABLE 1. — CHANGES IN AVERAGE POPULATION AND RATES OF GROWTH OF THE 8,900
VILLAGES OF 250 TO 2,500 POPULATION INCORPORATED BY 1910°
Average population
Rate of growth
Region^
Number of
villages
1910 to
1920 to
1910 to
1910
1920
1930
1920
1930
1930
(percent)
(percent)
(percent)
All regions
8,900
833
960
1,104
15 2
15 0
32 5
Middle Atlantic
1,018
1,023
1,208
1,530
18.1
26.6
49.6
South
2,676
839
1,021
1,220
21.7
19.5
45.4
Middle west
4,639
783
853
909
8.9
6.6
16.1
Far west . ...
567
883
1,096
1,385
24.1
26.4
56.9
° Compiled from U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1910, 1920, 1930.
6 Throughout this discussion where the four region classification has been used, the following census divisions
are included under each region: south — South Atlantic, East and West South Central; middle west — East and
West North Central; far west — Mountain and Pacific; the middle Atlantic region is identical with the census
division so named.
TABLE 2. — INCORPORATED VILLAGES GROWING OR DECLINING 20 PERCENT OR MORE IN
POPULATION BETWEEN 1910 AND 1930°
Stationary (from
Growing
loss of 20 percent
Declining
(over 20 percent)
— gain of 20
(over 20 percent)
Villages by size in 1910
villages
percent)
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Total
8,900
2,714
30.5
5,545
62.3
641
7.2
Small villages (250-1,000)
6,321
1,700
26.9
4,134
65.4
487
7.7
Medium villages (1,000-1,750)
1,724
639
37.1
983
57.0
102
5.9
855
360
42.1
441
51.6
54
6.3
» Compiled from U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1910, 1920, 1930. Same villages used as
in Table 1.
with 1930. The unit for comparison was 100 persons. The results of this
analysis were interesting indeed. Taking for example the full twenty-year
period, 1910 to 1930, one-fourth (24.7 percent) of the villages failed to
change status, that is to move from one 100 category to another. More
than one-half (51.9 percent) advanced one or more hundreds, some ex-
[ 512]
RURAL LIFE
treme cases showing increases into the thousands. A scant quarter (23.4
percent) lost, a considerable majority of them dropping into the 100
group immediately below.
It was felt that the twenty-year period should register the effect, if
any, of those disintegrating forces which were thought by some to be
working against the village. The results show beyond a doubt that the
trend is clearly one of growth. Lest the computation, including as it did
the period of World War prosperity, might overweight the results in
favor of growth, a similar analysis was made for the 1920-1930 period.
Moreover, all villages that had passed the 2,500 mark between 1910 and
1920 were eliminated, since to include them might have weighted the
sample in favor of showing growth. Newly incorporated places were also
eliminated. Of the 8,205 villages thus remaining more than two-fifths
(42.6 percent) advanced one or more categories or hundreds. Fewer than
one-fourth (23.3 percent) dropped, while the remaining one-third (34.1
percent) finished the decade in the same category in which they began it.
It appears quite clear, therefore, that whether the period considered be
1910 to 1930 or 1920 to 1930, more than three-fourths of the villages
gained or held their own.
Stability of Village Population Growth Acquired. — The corrollary run-
ning all through this story of village growth and decline is the record of
relative stability. It was Pareto who suggested that the best measure of
change is stability. From 1900 to 1920 two-fifths of the villages showed
very little variation in size. From 1910 to 1930 nearly two-thirds of the
small villages and over one-half of the others remained relatively un-
changed. Comparing the 1900 to 1920 trends with those from 1910 to
1930, it is clear that the proportion of villages with tendencies to rapid
growth or decline is on the decrease and that of more stabilized character
is on the increase.
It is noticeable from the census analysis, as well as from the field
work in 140 agricultural village communities, that the largest proportion
of villages with a relatively unchanged total population is in regions
where agriculture itself has become stabilized and where no other factors
are making for any sharp changes in the population as a whole. Associated
with this flattening curve of population growth is to be found a tendency
toward specialization of the services and functions performed by the
villages, including of course the various institutions concerned. It may
well be, in fact, that the village in such areas is beginning to reflect, even
before other sections of the country, the stabilization of the national
population forecasted for two or three decades hence. If this major trend
be true, the analysis of the age and sex characteristics in their effect upon
the whole social and institutional life of the village and its rural commu-
nity takes on an added importance.
[ 513 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Characteristics of Agricultural Village Population.24 — In the analysis
of changes in the characteristics of the village population attention must
be called to the fact that the 1930 census presents data on age, sex and
nativity for the minor civil divisions for the first time. Since such data
,.._ Solid lines and underlined figures refer to I93O percentages.
° '" Dash lines and not underlined figures refer to 1920 percentages
_±
£±
5.<
JJL
6.2
£3.
6.1
6.4
MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AGE
PERIOD
AGE
PERIOD
*«| 60-
"1
*' ff
ff 60
•E
f 50-
59
L*
5.5
r./
r./
».« i so-
•• is'
4O'
49
J..S
55
!« is
30
39
ffi 30
•»• iS
2O
29
r.j
si
•29
».7
7.i
10
19
ia./
si
19
iZ
0
9
1*2.
7. a
if!
K
. . 4 , i . 4 . .
. ......,.,,, ,0 ,
MALES
PER
FEMALES
CENT
MALES
PER
FEMALES
J
t
JL
a.t
6.3
MIDDLE WEST
FAR WEST
AGE
PERIOD
AGE
PERIOD
— ! 60-
4.0 t
69 iff
SI 60
69itt
— «5O
!.2
» hs
*»I 50-
"1!
59 i-"
! *••
'•
JL
.0
S
-49 1 «
! 5.0
3O
39
si
S
6.9 !
2O
29
B.O
sj
•29 i^J
Jli
a. 5
10
is
«5 ' '°
19 £
jui >
•.• i
0
9
IS
ff 1 °
|tf
10 6 6 4 2 <
I t 4 • • 10
,:..., i , ...»
MALES FEMALES
Pf f9 CENT
MALES
^/?
FEMALES
T£"^r
FIG. 1. — Age distribution of villagers, by regions, 1920 and 1930.
did not appear previously, the only method for a study of change is a
comparison of the special analysis of unpublished 1920 census materials
for 177 selected agricultural villages made in 1925 with the 1930 census
reports for the same places.25
84 Compare with characteristics of total population given in Chap. I.
26 See Fry, American Villagers, op. cit., for the report of the study of the 1920 census
data for these 177 villages.
[ 514 ]
RURAL LIFE
Chief among the changes in the composition of village population are
those relating to age and sex distributions, which are particularly impor-
tant in view of the changes in the birth rate. The age-sex pyramids are
shown in Figure 1.
One looks at once to the children's groups. The proportion of children
under ten years of age declined in every region. Furthermore this trend
seems likely to continue, for in every region when those under ten are
divided into two groups (under five and five to nine) it is found that the
younger was numerically the smaller. For the whole group of agricultural
villages 9.8 percent of the population is between the ages of five and nine,
inclusive, while only 8.4 percent is under five years of age. Both because
of the increasing age of villagers and because of the decreasing birth rate
the number and proportion of children in villages is on a decline as yet
unchecked. This fact has important implications for schools and churches
and indicates that only the influx of pupils from the open country,
characteristic of the last six years, can continue to sustain the school
enrollment.
The declining village birth rate is further proved by the changes in
the ratio of children under ten years of age to all females twenty to forty-
five years of age in the sample villages. The ratio has declined from 99.6
in 1920 to 95.7 in 1930, all regions sharing in this decline except the
middle Atlantic.
TABLE 3. — RATIO OF CHILDREN UNDER 10 YEARS OF AGE TO WOMEN 20 TO 45 YEARS OF
AGE IN THE 177 AGRICULTURAL VILLAGES, 1920 AND 1930°
Region
Ratio of children to
100 women
Region
Ratio of children to
100 women
1920
1930
1920
1930
All regions
99.6
84.5
95.7
88.4
South
Middle west
Far west
107.0
97.3
105.9
99.7
94.3
98.4
Middle Atlantic
a Special tabulation of U. S. Census data.
Quite as significant as the decline in the proportion of children in the
agricultural villages is the increase in the number and proportion of older
people. In every region the proportion of women between sixty and
seventy years of age and of men and women seventy years and over not
only increased but grew more rapidly than did the total village popula-
tion. In all regions but the middle west the proportion of men sixty to
seventy years of age also gained. The largest increases in the upper age
group are found in the south and especially in the far west. This would
[ 515 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
seem to indicate that agricultural villages even in these areas are tending
to conform more and more to the type of villages in the rest of the country.
The sex ratios have changed in every region, the net result being a
greater variation among the regions, though the total figure for 1930
is not greatly different than for 1920. For the 177 villages as a group the
1930 ratio of males to females was 95.1 as against 95.5 in 1920, which
compares to a ratio of 105 for the rural non-farm population of the
United States as a whole, a figure 1.5 points lower than in 1920. This
category of rural non-farm includes of course all villages, both incor-
porated and unincorporated. The great difference between the agri-
cultural villages and the rural non-farm population in the ratio of
males to females is only one of the many indications of the sharp differ-
ences between these two groups in the makeup of their population, and
it shows the necessity, for an adequate understanding of the agricultural
village, of making a separate analysis of its population structure. The
total rural non-farm group includes of course all suburban villages and
the approximately 4,000 industrial villages, most of them unincorporated.
However, the decline in the number of males as compared with females
between 1920 and 1930 was less in the agricultural villages than it was in
the total rural non-farm group.
City, Country Comparisons Show the Village at Mid-point. — All of these
trends, important as they are in themselves, point again to greater
homogeneity in agricultural villages and to their approaching population
stability. The question now arises as to how these various population
characteristics compare with those in city and in country. To answer from
the city angle, a group of thirty-eight medium sized cities, ranging from
25,585 to 104,437 in population, was chosen. They were scattered geo-
graphically throughout all the regions in which the sample of 177 villages
is located and all of them have diversified industries. The country
comparison was made directly on the basis of the rural-farm census
classification.
The comparisons of population characteristics as they were first made
in 1920 showed clearly that agricultural villagers were more like city
dwellers than they were like farm people. The 1930 figures show that the
village population continues to be more like that of the city than that of
the farm with respect to school attendance, the ratio of males to females,
the ratio of children under ten years of age to women twenty to forty-five
years of age, the proportion of the population under ten years of age, the
proportion between ten and twenty years and the proportion of females
forty-five years and over.
Direct comparisons of the two periods, however, reveal that city and
village populations are more alike in 1930 than they were in 1920 in the
following particulars: school attendance, the proportion of native white
f 516 1
RURAL LIFE
population, the ratio of males to females, the ratio of children under ten
to women twenty to forty-five years of age, the proportion of both males
and females under ten, twenty to forty-five, and forty-five to sixty-five
years of age. Similarly the comparisons indicate that the farm and village
are also more alike in 1930 than in 1920 in some of the same character-
istics, namely, the ratio of children under ten to women twenty to forty-
five years of age, the proportion of children under ten years of age, both
males and females, and the proportion of males and females forty-five to
sixty-five years of age.
In various particulars, then, the village is tending to become the
mid-point toward which both city and farm are approaching. In these
same particulars, therefore, all groups in society are nearer together and
in fact nearer to the national pattern. Consequently, may it not be said
that the characteristics of agricultural village population are a prophecy
of national population to be ?
Occupations Reveal Village Role. — In agricultural villages 75 percent
of the men and 20 percent of the women over ten years of age are gainfully
employed. The character of this employment becomes the important clue
to understanding the role of such villages in society, more particularly in
rural society. Measured in terms of total number of employed, four
occupations top the list, representing 78 percent of those occupied. They
come in this order: manufacturing, trade, agriculture and transportation.
The last two are nearly equal; the first constitutes about one-third of the
total.
The proportion of persons employed in manufacturing and agriculture
declined, while the proportion engaged in trade, transportation and
professional service increased, over the ten-year period 1920 to 1930.
Table 4 gives the details by sex groups. The south shows very slight
changes in any particular. Among the females these trends, although
apparent, are not as definite as among the males. With them also the
occupations that increased their proportional strength included personal
and domestic service in all regions and clerical work in the middle Atlantic
and the middle west.
Changes in ages of those employed are important. Every region shows
a sharp decline for both sexes in the high school period, 15 to 19 years.
The school enrollment figures to be presented later show that a greater
proportion of this age group were in school in 1930 than in 1920. It is in
the upper age groups that the proportions of employment have increased,
beginning at 45 and extending beyond the 65 -year age groups.
But what do the occupations indicate regarding the functions of the
village? First of all, it may surprise one to find manufacturing so impor-
tant. This is accounted for in part by the census definition which includes
artisans such as carpenters, painters and masons along with persons
[ 517 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
employed in the industries. Nevertheless, manufacturing does become a
striking indication of the part played by villages in rural industrial
affairs. More detailed examination of the types of industries in the villages
studied shows that when the food group, including as it does such process-
ing plants as creameries and canneries, is combined with the lumber,
textile and tobacco group, a total of 70 percent will be accounted for, and
the intimate connection with agriculture and forestry will be established.
The relative importance of each group was maintained during the decade,
with the food group showing some increase in each region. A considerable
minority of village industrial plants are relatively short-lived, one in four
TABLE 4. — OCCUPATIONS OF GAINFULLY EMPLOYED MALES AND FEMALES 10 YEARS OF
AGE AND OVER IN THE 177 AGRICULTURAL VILLAGES, 1920 AND 1930°
Occupations
Distribution, males
Distribution, females
1920
(percent)
1930
(percent)
1920
(percent)
1930
(percent)
Agriculture
Extraction of minerals
Manufacturing
15.8
1.0
34.8
11.8
20.1
1.8
6.3
4.9
3.5
12.9
1.0
34.1
12.6
21.5
1.9
6.8
5.6
3.6
2.7
b
16.7
3.8
10.0
0.7
20.5
34.6
11.0
2.3
6
13.1
3.5
9.7
0.4
21.2
38.5
11.4
Transportation
Trade
Public service
Professional service
Domestic and personal service
Clerical
0 Special tabulation of U. S. Census data.
6 Less than one-tenth of one percent.
having closed its doors during the ten-year period, but enough new
ventures were started to increase the total slightly in the end. Field work
reports indicate that the pay rolls carry fewer names and that fewer
persons come in from the country than in 1924.
Second, there is trade. This function of the village or small town is
usually recognized, but its importance is on the increase both in terms of
total number and proportion of people thus employed. Village commerce
is apparently not giving way before urban competition. Manufacturing,
i.e. processing, and trade, i.e. retailing, both require transportation.
Transportation has held a steady place in the village throughout the
period with tendencies to increase in the middle Atlantic and middle west
regions.
Size Variations Point Toward Specialization. — Variations in the func-
tions of villages due to their size are important when one is considering
adjustment tendencies and problems of the future. In the smaller centers of
[ 518 1
RURAL LIFE
less than 1,000, proportionately more people are employed in agriculture,
fewer in manufacturing. Likewise there are fewer in industrial plants and
more in the artisan classes. When compared with the thirty-eight medium
sized cities, region by region, the 177 agricultural villages have decidedly
fewer manufacturing plants per unit of population. This points in the
direction of the increasing importance of the second function of the
village, namely, trade. And in trade, the tendency toward specialization
is even more pronounced. Local retail outlets, not including those chain
owned, increased 30 percent from 1910 to 1930, the rate being greater in
the last ten years of the period.26 Population meanwhile increased 17.2
percent. The number of grocery and other food stores per village increased,
while the number of general stores decreased. The large village (1,750 to
2,500 population) averaged 6.5 apparel stores compared with 1.5 for the
small center (250 to 1,000 population). Two-fifths of the small villages
had no furniture store in 1930.
Problems in Readjustment. — Many trade centers were needed in the
dirt road, horse and buggy age and in some regions they were deliberately
laid out at five-mile intervals along the course of a railroad. They strove to
serve most of the local manufacturing, trade, transportation and financing
needs of their country communities. Now that the tendencies are reversed,
the trend being away from self-sufficiency to specialization, many
centers are encountering difficulties in adjusting themselves to this
movement.
When examined from the viewpoint of social institutions and relation-
ships the problems in readjustment are even more acute. In their social,
educational and civic affairs many villages followed a policy in which the
interests of their tributary trade areas were not taken into account.
They built their own schools, churches, libraries and playgrounds or
parks. They staked out their village boundaries and incorporated as
municipalities. In order to make the village attractive as a place in which
to live, improvements involving the utilities, surfaced streets, public
buildings and social services were made. Bonds had to be issued and debts
incurred.
Necessity for social adjustment is illustrated by the case of the high
school. With the population tendencies such as they have been, many
villages have found, during the past five years at least, that enrollment
in the high schools could be maintained only by drawing pupils from the
country. There is every indication that this condition will continue for
some time. In many cases, however, the country is not included within
the village legal school district; consequently there must be some arrange-
ment as to tuition charges. Village and country relations of many kinds
26 Bradstreet's, Book of Commercial Ratings, which does not list local units of chain stores
separately.
[ 519 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
are immediately and intimately involved. These are discussed in the next
section of the chapter.
IV. LARGER RURAL COMMUNITIES EMERGE
It is clear from what has been said that a larger and more modern rural
community is emerging, consisting of the village or town as its center and
the open country as its tributary territory. The data here presented
regarding this community and the changes going on in it were, for the
most part, obtained by extensive field work.27
In anticipation of more detailed conclusions, it may be said that rural
life is tending to become more and more organized about the village.
Village schools, churches and certain types of social organizations all
show this tendency in the increased proportion of their membership
coming from the country. The same can be said for trade when the
principle of specialization with regard to size of village as outlined in the
preceding section is taken into account. The strength of the villageward
tide varies considerably according to region and to type of village, but
regarding the direction of the main current there can be little doubt.
More and more the village or small town is becoming of supreme impor-
tance in rural America.
Changes in the Extent of Community Areas. — In an attempt to
measure the territory tributary to a village center, a general boundary
line was drawn. It was aimed to delimit that area within which the
village furnished a majority of the country people with a majority of
their social, religious and economic needs or services.28 The line so drawn
might or might not represent the extent of any one particular service or
institution. In effect it was a fused line delineating the hinterland of the
village. It represented a general or modal area with which any particular
service areas could be compared. In the present discussion this area is
regarded as the community area.
Thirty-nine of the 140 villages studied enlarged their community
areas between 1924 and 1930. Of the small villages (250 to 1,000 popula-
tion), one-fifth of the community areas were enlarged; of the medium
villages (1,000 to 1,750 population), over one-fourth; and of the large
villages (1,750 to 2,500 population), one-third. Eleven villages lost
territory; but most significantly, the majority, a two-thirds majority
indeed, remained about the same. That is, they did not vary by as much
27 This field work was of three kinds. First,140 agricultural villages (included in the
sample of 177 villages described in the village section above) and their country communities
in twenty-eight states were studied intensively in 1924 and again in 1930. Second, twenty-
one counties in seventeen states containing 292 hamlets and 96 villages were studied in
less detail in 1920 and again in 1930. Third, five counties in four states were studied by the
intensive case method, the interval being fifteen years in two instances and ten years in
three.
28 For an attempt to do this for the metropolitan community, see Chap. IX.
[ 520 ]
RURAL LIFE
as two square miles. The averages of the areas in 1980 in square miles
were as follows: middle Atlantic, 50; south, 108; middle west, 114; far
west, 251.
Variations According to Size of Center. — As one attempts to follow the
variations by size and character of the center and by differing types of
service institutions, many baffling complexities are encountered, yet
fairly regular connections can be seen and fairly discernible trends can be
followed. It is evident that many of the smaller villages and virtually all
of the hamlets (less than 250 population) cannot have tributary areas
that are comparable in character with those adjacent to larger centers,
for the simple reason that their service institutions are too few in number
and too limited in kind. Moreover, a whole small village-country area may
lie within the sphere of influence of some larger center because the dis-
tances between them are too short when measured in terms of time of
travel.
Village and town centers may therefore be classified upon the basis of
the character of the relationships they maintain with their country
constituencies; and these relationships will be correlated with the size of
the center, its type of institutions and the distances to other centers of
the same and differing sizes. Thus from another point of view the trend
is seen to be from community self-sufficiency to service specialization
which was briefly outlined in the previous section on the village.
Variations According to Types of Service. — When it comes to measuring
variations associated with different types of services for which the
country looks to the village and town, it must be admitted at once that in
many cases trade area boundaries were more difficult to locate with
definiteness in 1930 than they were in 1920 and 1924. "Farmers, and
especially their wives, shop around more than they used to," was the
frequent explanation heard when maps were being checked by business
men in the villages.
In one community out of four, on the other hand, the general com-
munity boundaries and the various service lines were easier to trace than
in 1924. In these places the villages were receiving a larger amount of
farmer patronage than formerly. Progressive merchandising policies and
more adequate specialization of functions seemed to account for this
condition. "The farmer doesn't want to burn up gas shopping around if
he can be satisfied at home," was the argument given by this group. In
other words, these latter centers were apparently making a successful
adjustment to the changing situations. Whether these villages or the
others represent the future trend, time alone can tell.
The restudy of a midwestern county after fifteen years indicates the
percentage of net expansion of area for four services to be as follows:
marketing, 64 percent; groceries, 22 percent; dry goods, 6 percent; and
[ 521 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
banking 3 percent. Further evidence from the same source indicates that
the farmer tends to patronize several villages or towns, but that he also
tends to specialize in certain places for certain types of service. This study,
covering a much longer period of time, shows interesting variations by
types of services. It also indicates more changes in the regions of the
county having smaller farms and greater highway improvements.
It is altogether probable that in the future less importance will be
attached and, therefore, less attention given to the question of size of
"trade areas," and more to the matter of character, volume and regularity
of the services rendered. One is more and more impressed with the
influence exerted by the service institutions found at any village center
upon the standards of living existing in its community and likewise by
the influence of standards and buying power of the community upon the
institutions of the center.
Just as the various trade boundaries seem to become less significant,
the various "social" lines seem to become more important. Perhaps this
is owing in part to the fact that in 1920 and 1924 villages and towns, at
least the medium and the large, had not been fully accepted as "social"
centers by country people. Although country people are building up and
maintaining many of their own social organizations and activities, as
was pointed out in the section on the country, they have gained a new
measure of interdependence or interplay with the village folk in social,
educational and religious matters. This is especially evident in, the high
school and its area. From every region whatever the type and method of
restudy came the word that the high school was the most important single
factor in gauging village-country community relations and areas. This
was one of the outstanding findings of the whole study and further
reference will be made to it.
Development of an Equilibrium in Community Areas. — Finally, the
reexamination of community areas discloses what may be the most
meaningful trend. It will be recalled that about two-thirds of the 140
community areas did not vary by as much as two square miles. This
proportion holds fairly regularly throughout all the major areas of field
work, which points to an apparent equilibrium, or state of balance,
between village and country. Thus, even in the case of the 292 hamlets
in the 21 counties, the losses in area outnumbered the gains by only about
4 percent and the relatively unchanged areas represented 52 percent of the
cases. In the large villages the percentage of areas unchanged rose to 60.
The Trade Services.29 — The next step is a brief description of the
changes that have taken place within the community areas, for an equilib-
rium in areas does not imply lack of change in the character of trade
services and institutions. The occupational study of villages indicated
29 On trade areas and consumption, see Chap. XVII.
[ 522 ]
RURAL LIFE
that one-fifth of the gainfully employed males and one-tenth of the females
are engaged in trade, that is retailing, and likewise that this occupation is
becoming relatively more important as the years pass. The increase in
the number of enterprises, as reported by Bradstreet's Book of Commercial
Ratings, for the 140 villages is further evidence of the importance of these
trade services. The increase between 1920 and 1930 was more rapid than
between 1910 and 1920, the total number of retail outlets for the average
village being 27.7 in 1910, 32.1 in 1920, and 39.6 in 1930, an increase of
over 40 percent in the two decades, a considerable part of which increase
is due to the changes arising from the greater use of the automobile. The
tendency held for villages of every size and for every region. This increase,
which is exclusive of gains in chain stores (Bradstreet does not record
individual units within such organizations), would seem to contradict
any popular supposition that the small town merchant is losing his trade
to cities and mail order houses. It would seem on the other hand, to bear
witness to the adjustments being made to hold the farmer trade and to a
degree of specialization already acquired.
Retail Outlets More Specialized. — In the first place, it is clear from an
examination of the different types of stores as shown in Table 5 that
the specialization tendency emphasized previously has set in. Grocery
and other food stores have increased and general stores have declined
in number. Many more places are now selling automobiles and their
accessories. The table indicates with equal clarity the tendency towards
stability and persistence on the part of certain types of enterprises,
as hardware, furniture, feed and supply stores.
TABLE 5. — RETAIL STORES PER VILLAGE FOR 140 AGRICULTURAL VILLAGES, 1910-1930*
Type of store
Number of stores per village
1910
1920
1930
Total retail
29.1
2.4
2.5
5.5
3.7
0.2
1.0
1.2
1.6
1.4
1.2
7.0
33.5
3.1
2.1
5.2
3.6
4.4
.0
.2
.7
.4
.6
.8
38.8
4.3
3.3
4.4
3.7
8.8
1.0
1.3
1.8
1.4
2.4
7.2
Grocery
All other food
Apparel
Automobile accessories
Furniture
Lumber and building
Hardware
Feed and farm supplies
Restaurants and soft drinks
All other retail
0 Bradstreet's Book of Commercial Ratings. Table does not include chain stores, as separate units are not
listed.
[ 523 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Volume of Village Retail Merchandising Large. — Even though com-
parable data do not exist for the earlier period, it is important to scruti-
nize the reports of the 1930 Census of Distribution, which make possible
for the first time a statement of the relative importance of village and
small town retailing. Average retail sales for the 47 small villages in the
sample of 140 villages were slightly in excess of $500,000. The medium
sized villages averaged almost twice as much and the large villages nearly
doubled the average of the medium villages. Altogether, the retail stores
in these agricultural centers rang up $145,330,500 on their cash registers
in 1929, or about 1 percent of the total retail trade for all places of less
than 10,000 population, which amounted to about 15.4 billions. This is,
in turn, about 30 percent of the national total of 50 billions.
Per Capita Sales on the Community Basis. — The per capita sales by
region for 140 village communities are shown in Table 6.
TABLE 6. — PER CAPITA RETAIL SALES IN THE 140 VILLAGE COMMUNITIES, BY REGION AND
BY SIZE, IN 1930°
Per capita sales in communities
Region
All
villages
Small
villages
Medium
villages
Large
villages
$301
$247
$277
$356
Middle Atlantic
316
268
310
402
South
208
142
176
255
Middle West
345
278
319
426
Far West
356
273
327
396
0 Computed from field work population data and TJ. S. Bureau of the Census, Fifteenth Census of the United
States, 1930, Census of Distribution figures on retail store sales within the incorporated villages, including all
stores.
It should be especially noted that the sales are figured on the basis
of the total community population, including both farm and village. The
general per capita figure is $301, each region except the south exceeding
this average. The low average in the southern region is due in part to the
high proportion of Negroes with their relatively low purchasing power.
When it is considered that these figures do not take into account sales in
open country or hamlet stores, nor purchases by rural people in city
centers and that farmers and villagers raise a larger proportion of their
own food than urban dwellers, it is quite evident that rural communities
offer an opportunity for marketing goods, other than certain food stuffs,
little if any poorer than the urban places of over 10,000 people, with
their average per capita figure of $588.
[ 524]
RURAL LIFE
Chain Store Influences. — Three hundred chain store units, handling
for the most part groceries, clothing, drugs, tobacco or glassware, were
operating in 107 of the 140 villages. Two-thirds of the 33 places with-
out such units were villages of less than 1,000 population. The issue of
chain store competition was acute in some of the regions visited. In
many places, however, chain competition was being met quite success-
fully by local stores through modern merchandising methods and partic-
ularly through membership in cooperative associations. One of the
serious effects in some places was the loss in local leadership that followed
the displacement of a local merchant by a chain store man, especially
where chain stores kept their managers from participation in the life of
the community.30
Communities Respond Differently to Changes. — There is a great differ-
ence in the extent to which communities have recognized shifting tend-
encies of trade relations and have made their adjustments accordingly.
Many stories of success and failure were heard in the course of the field
work. Some community leaders take the whole problem of adjustments
with fatalistic resignation and do nothing; others set about investigating
local consumption needs and try to determine "optimum number of
agencies" required, conferring with farm and city representatives to the
end that there may be better planning. This is a problem the solution of
which will be of much more than local significance and which not only
concerns trade but has important bearing on the social services, such as
those of the schools and churches.
Community Services of the Schools.31 — Judged by capital investment,
budget and numbers of persons employed, the school system is the most
important function of government in rural America; judged also by the
increasing proportion of country pupils enrolled, the village or small
town is becoming the center of rural education. Naturally the increase
has been greater in the secondary than in the elementary schools. In
1924, 45.6 percent of the pupils in village high schools came from the
country. In 1930 the proportion was practically one-half, 49.5 percent.
For two regions, the middle Atlantic and the south, it was even greater,
as is shown by Table 7. There are relatively more country pupils in the
smaller villages than in the medium or large ones, just as the ratio of
open country to village population is highest in the small village com-
munities. The increase in the proportion of country children in village
elementary schools is 7 percent, not a large change but a significant one.
Only in the south does the proportion approach that of the high school.
The decline in the far west is due to a combination of many factors
30 For a full discussion of the chain store and its effect, and of the retail merchandising
situation see the monograph. See also Chaps. V and XVII.
31 Compare with educational trends in the entire United States as given in Chap. VII.
See also extended discussion of rural education in the monograph.
[ 525 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
including especially changes in school administration and in population
groups, particularly migrant labor.
TABLE 7. — PROPORTION OF COUNTRY PUPILS IN THE 140 AGRICULTURAL VILLAGE SCHOOLS,
1924 AND 1930°
Percent of country pupils
Region
High school
Elementary school
1924
1930
1924
1930
All regions
45.6
41.2
41.6
45.2
49.1
49.5
54.8
51.3
47.6
46.7
24.0
12.1
34.6
17.3
27.1
25.7
14.0
44.4
18.3
22.7
Middle Atlantic
South
Middle west
Far west
a Calculated from field survey data.
Definite Trends Toward Consolidation. — This trend toward the greater
use of village schools by open country children raises the problem of
school consolidation, one of the most significant phases of rural com-
munity development. The number of village schools with which country
schools had consolidated increased from 50 to 61 in the six years' time
in the 140 village communities. Some of the systems already operating
under the consolidated plan in 1924 added new districts, so that all told
225 open country schools became parts of systems centered in the villages.
The trend was most noticeable in the south. Only eight of the thirty
southern villages did not have consolidated districts and these were for
the most part in areas of unimproved roads. In some communities the
number of open country schools had been reduced by one-half.
The road to consolidation, however, has frequently been rough and
rocky and fraught with possibilities of much village and country mis-
understanding. This has been especially true in states where there has
been little or no general state planning. In some cases the influx of
country pupils overtaxed limited village school facilities and if a con-
solidated district could not be effected some plan of excluding such pupils
was resorted to, because tuition charges had not been calculated to
include capital costs. In some cases village boards built new buildings on
their own account, as the next paragraphs will show, only to find them-
selves in real financial difficulties when trying to pay for them. In other
cases state legislation has been forced through whereby rural territory
may withdraw from consolidated or joint village-country school districts.
The village schools deprived of country support for capital outlay are
[ 526 1
RURAL LIFE
facing bankruptcy. Country families are forced to patronize an educa-
tional system on a commercial basis of tuition in which they have no
voice in management or in policy making.
Under consolidated high school arrangements 51.4 percent of the
pupils came from outside the villages. Under non-consolidated plans the
proportion was only slightly less, 47.2 percent. In other words, what is
in effect consolidation is taking place by social action, whether or not it
has been accomplished by legal enactment. The social practice frequently
precedes the legal decree. This story, revealed by the study of the 140
agricultural village communities, is in line with national trends, for the
federal Office of Education reports a gain in consolidated units of 26.7
percent between 1923 and 1928, compared with a gain of 22.2 percent in
the village communities between 1924 and 1930. This office estimates
that by 1938 there will be fewer than 110,000 one-room schools as against
the present 151,000.
Many New Buildings Since 19&4- — Another trend of note in the
village communities is the increase in the number of new school buildings
and in equipment. Sixty -four villages put up sixty-five new buildings;
twenty-one made additions to existing buildings; three purchased land
preparatory to building operations. Thus eighty-eight, or 63 percent of
the villages made capital outlay for buildings in the inter-study period.
Another 15 percent made important repairs. For the most part this new
construction housed grade or high schools or both and the majority
embodied modern plans with laboratories, auditoriums and gymnasiums.
Others included just a gymnasium, an auditorium or a combination,
and in such cases the larger public use as a community center was always
stressed. Time alone can tell how and when the nine million dollar outlay
will finally be paid. It seems rather certain, however, that it will require
other taxation systems and other kinds of agricultural and village pros-
perity than were characteristic in the period between 1924 and 1932.
Various causes or factors operated to create this great expansion and they
are not easy to specify. There was need, to be sure, yet the study in 1924
indicated that about nine-tenths of the existing buildings rated fair or
better; there was civic pride; and, not the least, there was effective pres-
sure from state Boards of Education.
Greater State Control and More State Aid.32 — This leads to the next
noticeable trend, namely, the growth of state control and state aid.
State control is exerted directly or indirectly over such things as build-
ings, teacher certifications, finances, curricula and in granting various
kinds of aids upon condition that certain requirements are met locally.
The increased exercise of these various powers and activities was attested
to by local school administrators and board members in every region.
32 Compare with Chap. VII.
[ 527 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Obviously the importance of an adequate understanding of local situa-
tions and of possessing helpful philosophies regarding the whole function
and practice of education on the part of state authorities can scarcely
be over-emphasized.
The granting of state aid becomes an important control device, but
its use varies from state to state. State grants were 55.5 percent of the
school budgets in the New York villages, but less than one percent in
Kansas.
Results secured turn upon the degree to which local situations are
analyzed. If, as is the case in some states, poor and small districts may
thus avoid consolidations, make unnecessary physical improvements or
reduce standards of local instruction as well as of local support, then
pointed questions may be raised concerning the rising tide of such state
distributed funds. Much remains to be done in this regard and a clearer
understanding of what are desirable local community units for educational
purposes is especially important. Some states, by the admission of their
own school officials, have gone too far in the creating of large consolidated
districts. Conversely some districts have proved to be too small. If it be
true, as has been suggested, that education is one of the chief functions
of rural government and that the high school is the main factor in deter-
mining the modern rural community, then another first-rate problem is
raised.
Instruction Costs as Measure of Budget Changes. — Only one index of
change in budgets or finances will be used. It is that of teaching-cost per
pupil. Teachers' salaries represented 70.1 percent of the entire budget in
1924 and 66.2 percent in 1930. Table 8 gives the comparisons on this
point for village high and grade schools and country grade schools.
TABLE 8. — TEACHING-COST PER PUPIL IN VILLAGE AND COUNTRY SCHOOLS, 1924 AND 1930°
Region
Village high schools
Village grade schools
Country grade schools
1924
1930
1924
1930
1924
1930
All regions
Middle Atlantic
South
$ 90.17
78.15
64.53
93.69
112.98
$81 . 96
82.72
60.24
83.29
98.37
$30.03
26.95
18.22
31.15
40.82
$33.22
43.22
19.30
36.41
38.91
$33 . 63
33.69
17.91
34.75
42.26
$39.23
41.43
24.53
40.35
52.12
Middle west
Far west
0 Field work in the 140 agricultural village communities.
Despite a slight decline in the average salaries of teachers, a decline
that was accelerated in the school year 1931-32 as shown by correspond-
[ 528 1
RURAL LIFE
ence with the 140 villages, there was a decided advance in professional
qualifications and there was every indication that the movement would
continue. The proportion of village teachers with less than a normal-
school training dropped from one-fifth to one-thirteenth of the total
number in the six years. The proportion of college graduates rose from
two-fifths to well over one-half. The country teacher continues to be the
less well trained but in a shrinking degree.
Curricula Changes. — No attempt was made to examine the curricula
from the technical point of view, or to study content of courses, but rather
to count changes. Two hundred changes in curricula were reported by the
140 school superintendents. Of these, 164 represented additions of courses
or departments between 1924 and 1930, and 36, discontinuances. One-
third added commercial departments or courses. Twenty-three introduced
domestic science arid seven dropped it, bringing the total to 106, com-
pared with 90 in 1924. Seventeen added agriculture and sixteen dropped
it, making the total eighty-seven. Eight introduced manual training and
three dropped it. Thus half of the new courses or departments added and
over two-thirds of those dropped were of the vocational or "practical"
type. It is apparent that agriculture and domestic science have not
found their places in these agricultural communities.33
Relations of School with Community. — With the influx of country
youth into schools of the village, the question is not simply one of adding
or subtracting courses or even of introducing departments of agriculture
or home economics, but rather of adapting entire curricula to the
cultural backgrounds of two sets of pupils, farm and village, and then of
adjusting them to the requirements of adult life. It is not an easy task.
It will have to take into account the fact that about half of those graduat-
ing— and the proportion is increasing — will want to go on to other edu-
cational institutions, showing that in a real sense the rural community
high school is also a preparatory school. And finally, it will consider that
this school must carry on in the midst of a community where people are
sorely tax ridden, though they but vaguely recognize what the funda-
mental problem really is. Many of them are by no means fully decided to
remain in the community, as the great ebb and flow from country and
village to city and back again clearly shows. Adult education in this
background takes on new significance with its instruments of library,
newspaper, extension course, bulletin, motion picture and not least, the
local school itself; but these cannot be enlarged upon here.
33 A mail study in March, 1932, a year after the field work, showed more than 100 further
changes. Nearly one-third of these were additions of courses in social sciences, especially
economics and civics. Twelve schools added vocational guidance. Many courses were
dropped or put on an every other year basis, especially higher mathematics, Latin and
certain of the sciences.
f 529 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Community Services of the Churches.34 — In modern rural communi-
ties churches are the most numerous of all the social organizations and
institutions. Their total building investment and their income exceed all
other types combined, except the school which they rival when they do
not exceed it. They employ more people than any other social agency
except the school and they receive several times as much in contributions
as all other social organizations combined. Judging by these as well as
other measures, the importance of churches in rural life is very real.
The rural church, however, has changed less than almost any other
rural institution in the last decade. In many places it failed to adjust
itself to changing conditions. Churches are slightly fewer in number and
larger in membership but a smaller proportion of the population is
enrolled in that membership. Buildings are better, but budgets, programs
and quality of leadership have changed very little. There is a trend for
open country members to join churches in villages.
Villageward Trend. — The trend toward the village already noted is
clearly seen in the case of the churches in the twenty-one counties. In
1920, but 22.6 percent of the Protestant village church membership came
from the open country. In 1930 the proportion was 39.3 percent in these
counties. This trend has not developed nearly so rapidly in the south as
in the other regions. In the 140 villages, the years from 1924-1930 did
not show quite so rapid an increase in the proportion of country members
in village churches. Approximately the same proportions as found in the
21 counties were finally reached, however. Therefore, with two-fifths of
its membership, in regions other than the south, coming from the open
country the dependence of the village church upon its country territory
is evident.
Churches Fewer but Larger. — While this movement has added members
and strength to village churches there is no evidence that as a whole
rural religion in terms of membership strength has increased. True, the
average memberships of the churches increased, from 72 to 76 in the open
country and from 140 to 149 in the villages, but this increase in average
membership was owing in part to the death of weaker churches. On the
average, one in twenty of the open country churches died each year during
the inter-survey periods. Some new churches were organized. In the
villages the death rates and birth rates of churches balanced, but in the
open country there proved to be a slow, steady, net decline.
Measured in terms of the ratio of church membership to total popula-
tion, the figures show a loss. In the twenty-one counties in 1920 one-fifth
of the population was in Protestant churches; in 1930 one-eighth.35 In
34 Compare with discussion of churches in the entire United States in Chap. XX. See
also Chap. VIII of the monograph.
36 No 1920 data for Roman Catholic churches in the 21 counties are available.
[ 530 ]
RURAL LIFE
the 140 villages the proportion of the population in all churches dropped
from 35.3 to 32.9 percent between 1924 and 1930. This decline was not
caused by the loss of any particular group, such as men or young people,
as the age and sex structure of the church membership remained almost
unchanged.
Buildings Improved; Budgets Show Little Variation. — In most other
aspects of rural church work there has been little measureable change.
The story is rather one of stability or advance. But in the matter of
buildings the 1,336 churches in the 140 village communities, like the
schools, greatly increased their capital investment. The 1930 total of
$15,111,000 represents an increase of 20 percent over 1924. In the counties
between 1920 and 1930, village church valuations doubled and those in
the country increased one-third. Like the schools these buildings were
not fully paid for and in some centers the obligations were proving a
heavy burden on the people of the community, especially in centers in
which both church and school buildings had been built or improved.
These trends are similar to those indicated in the chapter on organized
religion.36
Average expenditure budgets increased one-fourth between 1920 and
1930, though only about one-twentieth between 1924 and 1930, and for
Protestant churches amounted to about $2,400 per church in the villages
in the latter year and to $709 for open country churches. Roman Catho-
lic figures for 1930 were $3,355 and $1,318 for village and country churches
respectively, the totals representing almost no change during the period.
The per capita expenditures remained practically unchanged in every
region, averaging $16.38 in the village Protestant churches, $8.57 in the
open country and $12.03 among the Catholics of villages and open country
combined. In 1926 the United States Census of Religious Bodies showed
a per member contribution of $13.27 for all rural churches.
Member contributions, while almost stationary, showed marked
variations as to their use and distribution. In 1920 and 1924 between
three-tenths and one-third of the contributor's dollar went to missionary
and other benevolent causes. In 1930 this phase of the church budget
claimed less than one-fourth. Conversely, the minister and upkeep
received higher proportions. So sharp a fluctuation with a practically
unchanged per member contribution would seem to indicate a significant
change in thinking on the part of the membership as to the benevolent
work of the church.
The Clergy, Their Training and Compensation. — In the main there has
been a slight increase in the relative number of college graduates in the
ministry of village and country churches. The proportion of those who
have completed both college and seminary, however, has declined slightly.
36 Chap. XX, p. 1009 f.
f 531 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
This is significant when compared with the marked advance in the train-
ing of the school teachers in these same communities. The exception to
this trend is the Catholic church with 88 percent of the clergy college
and seminary trained, compared with a bare 33 percent of the Protestant
clergy.
Salaries increased rather sharply between 1920 and 1925 but subse-
quently the general averages reached lower levels, with $1,433 as the
figure for 1930. Many variations are in evidence. Resident clergy of
village churches averaged $1,653, compared with $1,063 for country
churches. Such salaries, though usually supplemented by dwellings rent
free, apparently were not considered adequate, since 25 percent of the
men added to their incomes by working in other occupations of a widely
diverse character. This practice appears to be on the increase.
Relations of Church with Community. — Only general changes in the
institutional phases of village and open country churches, as illustrated
from 2,238 congregations restudied in both the 21 counties and the 140
village communities, have been sketched. The broader aspects of religion
are described in another chapter of this work. It may be fitting, however,
to list a few general changes evident in these local communities. A con-
siderable number of villages outside the south were having Sunday
moving picture shows without opposition from the churches, a situation
impossible in 1920 or 1924. Local testimony and field workers' notes
indicate some slight change, especially among the younger clergy, in
the content of sermons. More attention is being paid to the social implica-
tions of Christianity, the applications of religion to daily life and the
religious implications of community problems.
There was also detectable a growing concern with problems of church
competition and cooperation. As recorded in the chapter on organized
religion, Protestant denominations have made some advances in the last
decade in avoiding direct competition, especially in new fields. This
cooperation usually takes the form of comity agreements, allocations of
exclusive responsibility for particular communities or districts and avoid-
ance of competitive grants in aid to churches in the same community.
The results of the study in village communities show a measurable
decrease in competition among denominations of similar polity and
doctrine and in areas administered by national as against state or other
district officers. However, competition is still present. The proportion of
churches aided by grants from national or district headquarters remained
about the same in the villages, but increased sharply for open country
churches. The average amount of the grant to village churches increased
by 13 percent, however, to nearly $400, so that the total amount of out-
side aid received by this group of churches actually increased. This was
owing in large part to liberal grants made in competitive situations by
[ 532 ]
RURAL LIFE
the less cooperative groups, which in turn called for increased grants by
the others. Thus the average grant in competitive situations, $421, was
almost $50 more than grants in communities where but one church was
aided. The need of the church for help in order to survive seemed to be
the sole criterion on which grants were made. No correlation could be
discovered between this so-called "home mission aid" and religious or
social needs determined on a community basis.
But apart from this condition there was less competition than at the
time of the former studies. The number of churches per community de-
clined from 10 to 9.5 and the number of churches for each 1,000 of the
population dropped from 3.3 to 2.8, a decline in which every region and
every size of village shared.
It appears from the analysis, therefore, that the churches still have
many unsolved problems. The village ward trend has weakened open
country churches and resulted in unfortunate competition between
churches of the same denomination, a situation for which no adequate
solution has been advanced. Moreover, the villageward trend is not
strong enough to bring in country members as rapidly as country churches
close. Consequently questions of both village and country adjustments
are raised. Cooperation among churches of similar backgrounds has
increased and direct competition has accordingly been reduced, but
inter-denominational, in terms of inter-faith, relationships still bristle
with many problems. Churches in country communities have not
held their members, as measured by attendance, nor increased their
membership proportionately to population gains. They have appar-
ently reached the maximum of support from individual members. Their
basis of using the income for programs of work is shifting, thereby reduc-
ing expenditures for benevolent and missionary purposes. The local pro-
gram in a rapidly changing social environment has remained all but
unchanged.
Social Life and Organizations. — The varied social interests of people
in the communities studied expressed themselves in nearly 3,000 organ-
izations which may be classified into ten general types: fraternal, civic,
economic, social, patriotic, educational, athletic, musical, youth serving
and socio-religious. The shifting fortunes of these organizations show the
changing tendencies in the social activities of village-country communi-
ties. Instability characterizes these groups. Many of them have short
life cycles. Nearly one-third of those found in 1924 had died, but a slightly
larger number took their places, so that there were 20.8 organizations per
community in 1930 compared with 20.3 in 1924.
The period under review was characterized by several changes in
these types. For example, youth serving agencies, largely 4-H clubs,
under the auspices of the federal and state Agricultural Extension Serv-
[ 533 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ices, and therefore promoted by salaried workers, have more than doubled
in number, so that in 1930 there were 358 groups. Exclusively adult
organizations declined more than 4 percent, the bulk of the decline occur-
ring in the fraternal or lodge group, where the number fell from 958 to
837 37 purely civic organizations also lost, largely because so many other
types added civic activities to their programs. Athletic, musical and
patriotic groups also registered losses in the small communities, while
there was an increase in economic and strictly social organizations. In
the other types gains and losses were practically equal.
Village and Country Affiliations Increase. — The changes in the village
and country proportions of the membership and activities of the social
organizations in the community are not decisive. The country proportion
of affiliations remains at between 33 and 34 percent. An average may
easily conceal interesting differences, as it does in this case, because of the
variety of types of organizations and the great instability due to rapid
rise and decline. There was a decrease in the proportion of country mem-
bers in the lodges, civic and relatively informal social organizations which
reflects the general decline of fraternal organizations and likewise the
maintenance or increase of various forms of social activities on the part
of country people themselves, as has been pointed out in an earlier section.
There was an increase of country participation in athletic, musical,
patriotic and youth serving groups which is indicative of the increasing
part played by country people in the special interests of the community,
in which both village and country may now join. Increased affiliations in
educational organizations, as parent teacher associations, is directly
related to the increased use of the village schools by country families.
There is likewise wide variation, region by region, in the extent to which
country people join these organizations.
Memberships Decline, Activities More Varied. — With the general
decline of the adult groups average membership also dropped from 65
to 62, despite an increase in the population of the community, a tend-
ency noted in the case of the church membership. In contrast with the
churches, however, average attendance of the membership shows a
small average gain, from 35 in 1924 to 37 in 1930. There are many re-
gional differences in both conditions. Losses in membership and in
number of organizations were greatest in regions that had the largest
number of organizations per community in 1924, notably the far west,
and gains were greatest in regions with fewer organizations previously,
especially the middle Atlantic. Apparently the total number of social
organizations per community in all regions is tending to stabilize at
about 20.
37 Compare with discussion of national organizations in Chap. XVIII. See also Chap.
IX of the monograph.
[534 ]
RURAL LIFE
Changes in activities in most communities were from the fellow-
ship of purely social and fraternal groups to those of a civic or educa-
tional character, from entertainment objectives to those considered
socially more desirable.
The costs of social organizations to their membership declined both
in gross totals and per capita. In 1924 in the 140 communities these
organizations spent nearly a million dollars, or $5.13 per member. In
1930 the total figure had declined about 13 percent and the per member
figure to $4.57. The average decline, however, conceals some interesting
increases, as, for example, among economic groups, and likewise many
variations according to region and size of centers. Small communities
showed the sharpest per member decrease of expenditures.
More County -wide Organizations Appear. — A development of the
decade since 1920 is the rapid growth of county-wide social organiza-
tions.38 Sometimes they are the results of federations of local groups and
sometimes they come on the promotion plan of a county setup. In the
main, the growth was among such official or semi-official organizations as
4-H clubs, Farm and Home Bureaus, libraries, health units or social
welfare agencies. Thirty different kinds of county-wide organizations
were encountered in 1930. The situation is illustrated by two counties,
each with fifteen such organizations and each with nine agencies having
one or more paid executives and annual budgets totaling as high as
$50,000. All this expansion of local organization activity to larger county
proportions is a part of the expansion movement taking the form of
capital outlay in the cases of church and school. Its future is now in
jeopardy, owing to distress in agriculture and in rural industries. But this
kind of expanded social life and organization has at least brought villagers,
countrymen and county seat dwellers into increasingly intimate contacts
and has led to joint concern for the general welfare.
Village-country Cooperation and Conflict. — The final question to be
raised in this section is the extent and character of cooperation or conflict
within the social fabric. Measures are difficult to apply, yet the sum total
of the field work analysis does indicate progress in the direction of coopera-
tion, both among the various groups and between the village and the
country elements of the community. The evidence takes diverse forms.
Perhaps one of the most important reasons for the improvement in
the village and country relations was voiced by a number of villagers
when they said that in times of agricultural distress, owing either to
economic difficulties or to drought, "villages have been shocked into
a realization that their greatest hope lies in agriculture rather than
industry." An increased number of villagers have become farm owners,
managers or operators through mortgage foreclosures or other forced
38 See discussion of the county as a unit of public welfare in Chap. XXIV.
f 535 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
business arrangements. Some are retired farmers and some are bankers
or other creditors. Many farmers likewise testified to an increasing
appreciation of the businessman's problem, especially in periods of
declining prices and shrinking credit.
Many joint enterprises have been undertaken. Only a few can be
enumerated. In some of the middle Atlantic states rural fire districts
surrounding the villages have been organized and additional equipment
purchased. In the middle and far west, the community fair has become a
favorite project, the high school with its agricultural and home economics
departments taking leadership. Buildings, both privately and publicly
owned, have been remodeled or opened for a larger community use and in
a few cases new buildings actually constructed for the purpose. In two
out of five communities, villagers and farmers cooperated in such things as
institutes, athletic contests, 4-H club work or musical and dramatic
activities.
In fine, local issues regarding village and country relations since 1924
can be rather surely placed in the improved and the cooperative columns.
One can easily become too sanguine, however, regarding the future of the
more general issues. More frequent and more varied contacts have
bridged many differences inherited from a former generation of farmers
and merchants. Yet the conflict may be none the less real. It is once
removed, more impersonal, centered in larger groups. As has been noted,
control of financial, credit and service policies has passed out of the hands
of local units such as banks, stores, cooperative marketing associations
and even schools and churches. It has passed to larger, more central-
ized agencies and to interests motivated by considerations other than
those dictated by local community affairs. In the future it may be more
appropriate to discuss the issues of rural-urban cooperation or conflict
instead of local village-country cooperation or conflict.
V. RURAL-URBAN RELATIONS ASSUME MORE IMPORTANCE
It has been seen that the development of the United States has
inevitably exposed rural people to an ever increasing number of non-rural
influences and contacts. Conversely, city people have been brought into
closer touch with rural life. Just as the farmer and the villager now find
themselves more closely associated in a stronger village-country com-
munity, so also, for many of the same reasons, they both find themselves
coming more and more into contact with the city.
Indirect Contacts Multiply. — These multiplied contacts are not only
direct but are also of the more subtle, indirect type hinted at in the con-
clusion of the previous section. The invasion of rural banking by the city
has been marked in the last few years. In 1924 almost all the rural banks
in the 140 villages were entirely under local control. In 1930 one-eighth of
[ 536 ]
RURAL LIFE
the banks were urban managed. The field study revealed many instances
of real hardship resulting from the urban management of these rural banks
because of lack of information and understanding in regard to agriculture
and farmers.
A similar tendency was noted in regard to village industry. The
proportion of industries in the 140 villages wholly controlled by non-local
capital rose one-third, from 15.4 to 20.7 percent. This tendency was
especially noticeable in the food group, while the chain store offers
another example. Nor are the social institutions immune. The outside
influences playing upon the school have already been noted. In the case
of the church, administrative and denominational policies are increasingly
influenced and usually determined by boards and judicatories in which
urban points of view predominate. Similarly other agencies, such as
luncheon clubs, parent teacher associations and women's clubs, more and
more receive suggestions from outside through regional, state or national
offices.
Nor are such indirect influences limited to institutional and organiza-
tional contacts. Wherever tests were made, rural people were found to be
subscribing to city newspapers twice as frequently in 1930 as in 1925.
The radio too is exerting an immeasurable influence. In 1925, 4.3 percent
of the farmers had radios; in 1930 a sample of twenty-five states shows
that 18.1 percent of farm families own instruments. In the latter year
two-fifths of the villagers possessed them.
Direct Contacts Greatly Increased. — Direct contacts, on the other
hand, occur where the farmer and villager directly and individually avail
themselves of the services and institutions of the city. Often the city
makes the adjustment necessary to attract and multiply these direct
contacts, though their frequency varies regionally and according to the
type of institution and service offered.
The clearest evidences of these direct contacts of the ruralite with
the city are found in the commercial field, largely because numerous
studies have been made in this field. A few of them will be summarized.
Among 1,328 farm families in the middle west, surveyed in August
1930 by Successful Farming, of Des Moines, it was found that the average
number of miles traveled to make purchases of hardware, farm machinery,
groceries and automobile accessories varied from 5.9 to 7.8. Two-fifths
of the families purchased their groceries in places of less than 1,000 and
almost half went to such places for hardware and farm machinery. About
one-fourth made the purchases in places of from 1,000 to 2,500 and
another one-fourth in places of from 2,500 to 10,000 population. The
average distance traveled for furniture, however, was 14 miles and for
women's ready to wear clothes 19.5 miles. These two items were procured
by the greatest number of families (31 and 47 percent) in the places of
F 537 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
from 2,500 to 10,000. The city of more than 10,000 secured the trade of
one-eighth and one-sixth, respectively, for these items, though it attracted
but one-twentieth of the families for the other goods. In other words, the
centers of various sizes attracted to their stores only about the proportion
of the total sample of families that lived within their primary sphere of
influence; and the goods which they bought at such local centers were
related to the farm or to daily living. But the large places had far greater
attraction when the articles purchased were those seldom needed and
requiring a greater unit outlay.
This conclusion is substantiated by other and similar studies. An
intensive investigation made of 1,034 farm families in a Wisconsin county
found that every family used the places of from 500 to 4,000 population
for some purchase or service. One-half also used cities of more than
15,000, two-fifths utilized hamlets and three-fifths used mail order houses.
The majority of these families went from 4 to 6 miles to their "home
town" for groceries, machinery, furniture, dry goods, banking, marketing
their products, high school, movies, church, social affairs and library
service. The majority used mail order houses for automobile tires,
hardware, ready to wear clothes, and many for dry goods. The families
trading in the city went from 20 to 80 miles for men's and women's
clothing, furniture, medical services, dry goods and certain types of
recreation.
In 1929, the Woman's World, of Chicago, obtained elaborate informa-
tion on the trading habits of 23,504 families, largely in the middle western
and middle Atlantic states. It discovered that two-fifths of the farm
families, one-third of the families in villages of less than 1,000, one-fifth
of those in places of from 1,000 to 2,500, and one-sixth of those in towns
of from 2,500 to 10,000 did most of their trading outside their home town.
Regardless of residence the larger proportion of all purchasing was in the
home town. This study also showed the clear tendency for clothing and
other specialty items infrequently purchased to be obtained in larger
centers.
Reasons for Continuing or Changing Trade Centers.™ — In the Wisconsin
county during the fifteen-year period since the previous study 35 percent
of the families had changed their shopping centers. The chief changes
involved clothing, especially women's ready to wear, and dry goods, for
which the purchaser had gone cityward. The reasons for the continuing or
changing of patronage, with resulting multiplication of contacts, are quite
clear to the farmers and villagers, as their statements indicated. The
hamlet or crossroads institutions are patronized because of their con-
venience. Habit, convenience and improved service all play a part in the
ability of the village to hold its constituency. The city offers a wider
39 Note data on shopping centers in Chap. XVII.
f 538 1
RURAL LIFE
selection of goods from which to choose and on some items is thought to
be cheaper. Price is the only factor apparently influencing mail order
buying. These direct contacts have multiplied, but, unlike many of the
indirect contacts, they are determined by the rural people themselves.
Pattern of Rural -urban Relations Forming.40 — Just as surrounding
the village is the country community, so around the city center are con-
centric zones of influence. Even a cursory examination of these zones
indicates that the old and arbitrary bifocal division of "urban" and
"rural" does not have much meaning. The city does not end at its legal
limits; its influence and even the characteristics of its people carry over
into the territory beyond. The reactions appear to be mutual, the urban
center adapting its functions to a wider sphere and both village and
country adjusting their life and affairs to greater conformity with the
city. A pattern of rural-urban relationships is therefore finally formed
which can be examined and mapped or charted. As a simple technique
for doing this, eighteen cities scattered throughout the nation were
selected.41 Counties contiguous to these cities were then chosen to repre-
sent tributary territory. The wholesale grocery areas, published as a map
supplement to the Market Data Handbook** were used as a guide in
determining how far out to go. In this way tentative boundaries for the
cities in question were determined and the points where the influence of
other cities might appear were forecast.
To measure the concentric character of the design all counties border-
ing the county in which the city was located were designated as Tier 1
counties. All counties bordering on the first tier counties were called Tier 2
counties and so on. The county containing the city and the various tiers
of counties surrounding were then studied separately for various relation-
ships, and in order to observe possible trends, data for the three decades
1910, 1920 and 1930 were obtained when possible. Only the briefest
summaries can be given here and those for only a very few of the indexes
that were used.43 The caution should be given that some of the results
secured are tentative and will require further verification. In a few
instances it was even necessary to select only one or two cases within the
sample of eighteen cities and their counties, because data, especially
census data for 1930, were not available. This type of inquiry gives
40 Compare with Chap. IX.
41 Binghamton, New York; Columbia, South Carolina; Des Moines, Iowa; Fargo, North
Dakota; Fort Worth, Texas; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Lincoln, Nebraska; Milwaukee,
Wisconsin; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Portland,
Oregon; Richmond, Virginia; San Francisco, California; Springfield, Illinois; Toledo, Ohio;
Wichita, Kansas; Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
42 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Domestic Commerce Series, no.
30, 1929.
43 For a fuller discussion of these results and their regional variations and their meaning,
see Chap. V of the monograph.
[ 539 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
interesting indications of trends in a series of relations that have been all
too frequently neglected but which are increasingly important.
Agricultural Relations. — The gradations of rural and urban relations
are seen most clearly in a comparison of the field crop and live stock
values in the succeeding tiers of counties proceeding outward from the
city county.44 The per acre value (in terms of current dollars) for all field
crops decreases consistently for the four tiers of counties and in each
decade when going out from the city county, as is shown in Table 9.
TABLE 9. — VALUE PER ACRE OF ALL FIELD CROPS ON FARMS IN COUNTIES SURROUNDING
CITY CENTERS, 1910-1930°
Year
City county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
1910
$10.78
24.68
14.42
$ 8.56
24.18
12.41
$ 7.43
19.92
9.92
$ 6.48
17.28
8.82
$ 4.26
12.90
7.43
1920
1930
a Special analysis of census materials for 349 counties, by tiers, surrounding eighteen city centers.
Even more significant is the fact that the proportionate value of
cereals is low in the city county and increases with the distance from the
urban center, whereas the proportionate yield for vegetables is high in
the city county and diminishes steadily as the tiers of counties are followed
outward. The proportion of all farm property in live stock such as animals,
poultry and so on, tends to increase with the successive tiers but since
total farm values per acre decrease sharply with the distances from the
urban center, the actual per acre investment in live stock decreases
regularly tier by tier.
When it comes to the per acre value of all farm property the story is
very significant both from the viewpoint of the successive tiers of counties
and also in the decade to decade comparison. The values per acre decrease
consistently and sharply with the outlying tiers, as Table 10 shows.
TABLE 10. — VALUE PER ACRE OF FARM PROPERTY IN COUNTIES SURROUNDING CITY
CENTERS, 1910-1930"
Year
City county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
1910
$ 99.90
154.73
142.37
$ 66.82
122.75
94.36
$ 56.50
102.95
71.82
$49.64
94.86
65.93
$37.31
77.28
61.67
1920
1930
0 Same as for Table 9.
44 By city county is meant the county in which the city is located. The figures given
are for the entire county, including the city.
[ 540]
RURAL LIFE
The percentages of increase in per acre values of 1920 over 1910, com-
pared by the tiering method, are 55 percent, 84 percent, 82 percent, 91
percent, and 107 percent for the city county and tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4,
respectively. For all of the counties taken together the increase was 83
percent. The percentages of decrease for 1930 compared with 1920 are
8 percent, 23 percent, 30 percent, 30 percent, and 20 percent respectively,
for the city counties and the four tiers. For all of the counties the de-
crease was 28 percent. Reference to Table 9 will show that the per acre
values of all field crops shared in both the up and the down movements
and in accordance with the tiering arrangements. Surely the fact of
such differential inflation and differential deflation of both land and crop
values on the basis of rural-urban relations in the location of farms
deserves consideration in any plans designed to alleviate the farmers'
distress.
Comparisons of the farm mortgage situation give further evidence
of the differential influence of location with respect to urban centers.
The percentage of farms mortgaged increases with the distance out from
the city county as Table 11 indicates.
TABLE 11. — PROPORTION OF FARMS MORTGAGED IN COUNTIES SURROUNDING CITY
CENTERS, 1910-1930°
Year
City county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
1910
Percent
33.2
36.7
41.1
Percent
36.3
38.4
43.8
Percent
35.3
38.4
43.8
Percent
38.0
41.6
46.1
Percent
43.4
47.2
52.7
1920
1930
0 Same as for Table 9.
TABLE 12. — PROPORTION OF FARMS OPERATED BY OWNERS IN COUNTIES SURROUNDING
CITY CENTERS, 1910-1930"
Year
City county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
1910
Percent
57.7
57.6
60.8
Percent
62.1
60.8
60.4
Percent
63.5
61.2
60.3
Percent
64.2
61.6
58.9
Percent
66.5
60.4
56.0
1920
1930
0 Same as for Table 9.
The ratio of mortgage indebtedness to farm values increased from
29.9 percent in 1910, to 30.4 in 1920, and to 40.3 percent in 1930 for
all counties. There is also a slight tendency for the percentages to increase
[ 541 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
as one proceeds out from the city county. This condition, together with
the fact of a greater proportion of farms mortgaged, can hardly indicate
a difference in practice of banks or loan companies but rather that the
farmers in the outer tiers of counties are faced with a larger problem in
writing off the effects of a boom inspired inflation.
When consideration is given to the value of crop yields per acre
as compared to the value of all farm property per acre, there is evidence
that the farmer may not be getting less of current gross return on his
investment than in 1910, but that his taxes, interest, mortgage payments
or other operating expenses are taking a larger toll from his total re-
turns. For example, in 1910 the ratio of crop values to all farm property
per acre was 13.2 percent, in 1920 it was 19.4 percent and in 1930 it
was 13.6 percent. Other evidence of overhead costs is reflected in the
proportion of all farms operated by owners. Singularly enough there
is a tendency for the percentage of ownership to increase from the city
county out to the fourth tier of counties for both the years 1910 and
1920, whereas the tendency is reversed in 1930, evidently reflecting
the difficulties to which reference has just been made, as experienced
by the farmers in the outer tiers. Table 12 gives the details for this
reversed tendency.
Retail Merchandising. — From an examination of the Des Moines
area alone, the story of retail trade, as taken from the 1930 United
States Census of Distribution, is likewise consistent. The average of
all retail sales per capita in the Des Moines city county is $570.25.
The corresponding averages for tiers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are $347.32, $357.14,
$319.80 and $315.54 respectively. It is clear that the city is different
from the country, but it is also plain that the variation takes place
with the distance from the city center and reflects, partially at least,
the increased rural purchases in the city center, since by census procedure
these are credited to the city of sale. Of the total retail sales the percent-
age for food varies likewise; the percentages, starting with the city
county, are 18.1, 18.2, 17.4, 13.3 and 14.2. This may be an indication
of the greater self-suffiicency of rural families beyond the first tier of
counties. Similarly, the average sales per capita of clothing in the city
county are $59.02 and for the successive tiers, $20.25, $21.83, $13.06
and $18.36, indicating an abrupt change after the second tier of counties
is reached. For automobiles and automobile equipment an exception is
found. Although the city county has a higher per capita expenditure,
$123.24, the amounts tend to be about constant for all tiers, with $86.15,
$89.00, $82.29 and $82.50.
Or take the case of Milwaukee and its tiers of counties examined from
the point of view of population per business establishment in open country
and in places of 2,500 or less population. This study was made from
[ 542 ]
RURAL LIFE
Bradstreet's Book of Commercial Ratings for the years 1910, 1920 and
1930. The results, showing average population per business establishment
by the tiers of counties, are given in Table 13. There is quite a sharp de-
cline in the first tier when compared with the Milwaukee city county
but the figures begin to build up as the fourth tier is passed, indicating
an approach to another city center.
TABLE 13. — POPULATION PER BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT IN MILWAUKEE AND SURROUND-
ING COUNTIES, 1910-1930°
Year
City
county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
1910
140
182
217
60
56
58
64
55
61
69
63
62
72
68
59
79
83
70
1920
1930
0 Compiled from Bradstreet's Book of Commercial Ratings, 1910, 1920, and 1930.
Manufacturing and Those Gainfully Employed. — It may have been
assumed that manufacturing was a function solely of the city but even
here the gradual variation is apparent when the Des Moines area is
studied as a single case. The average amount of sales of all products pro-
duced by manufacturing was $600.58 per capita for the Des Moines city
county area, but $122.38, $128.92, $44.96 and $74.79 represent the
values for the four surrounding tiers.
The proportions of gainfully employed likewise are highest in the
Des Moines city county, 42.6 percent, and then decline gradually as one
goes out, the percentages being 35.7, 35.7, 34.3 and 34.6, which again
indicates from quite a different angle that the productive ages tend to
be in greater proportion in the more urban areas.
Population Characteristics.*5 — The trade and agricultural relations
might seem rather obvious, but when population factors are examined
the extent and the character of the rural-urban adjustments become much
more striking. One finds that the percentage of the rural population, as
defined by the census, in the 0 to 10 years age group decreased but
slightly from 1910 to 1920, but that between 1920 and 1930 there was
a marked decrease. When these changes are observed in the tiering
arrangement out from the cities, it is significant to find that between 1910
and 1920 the percentage rose steadily from the near to the outer tiers,
but that between 1920 and 1930 there was a tendency toward greater
uniformity in all tiers. It is as though the percentage of ages 0 to 10
years to the total rural population was approaching a constant and
45 Compare with figures for the entire United States given in Chap. I.
f 543 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
that this proportion was adjusting itself to the low proportion already
existing in the city center and its own county.
At the other end of the age groups important changes are also taking
place. For example, the proportion of those 45 and over shows a decided
increase from 1920 to 1930 but the variations from tier to tier for the
total population are not significant. Moreover, if only the rural popula-
tion is followed, there is an increase in the outer tiers, and in the middle
west the proportion for the non-farm population is almost twice that
for the farm population, indicating that the older farm people continue
to retire to the village. In the middle and productive age groups, 21 to
45 years, there is a sharp decline from the city county to the first tier
and then a gradual decrease on out to the outer tiers for all decades.
For the strictly rural population the decrease toward the outer tiers is
considerably sharper.
These sharp shifts in the age distribution can only mean that in an-
other generation the entire constitution of our population will be signifi-
cantly different from that of 1910 or even 1930. Prevailing health trends
and lowered birth rates will make for an older and maturer population.
The country will be less of a source of replenishment for the city than
in the past.
Notwithstanding the fact that in all the areas the ratios for the
under ten age group decrease from decade to decade, and the ratios from
the 21 and over group increase, there seemed to be evidence to indicate
that in age constitution the non-urban tiers tended to be less different
from the urban center in 1930 than in 1920. The average of the absolute
deviations between the urban ratio and the individual tier ratios of
under ten was 4.7 percent in 1910, 3.9 in 1920 and 3.5 in 1930. The aver-
age deviation from the ratio of 21 and older in the total population was
7.0, 6.3 and 5.9 for 1910, 1920 and 1930, respectively. This method of
studying tiers of counties shows that the ratios of under ten increase
with distance from the urban county and that the ratios decrease for the
21 and older rates.
The proportion of children under 10 years of age in Tier 1 was 18
percent greater than in the city county in 1910, 16 percent greater in
1920 and 14 percent greater in 1930. Tier 2 had 22, 19 and 18 percent
more than the city county in 1910, 1920 and 1930. The corresponding
percentages in excess for Tier 3 were 25, 21 and 19 and for Tier 4 they were
33, 25 and 22. The proportions of people older than 21 were 9, 9 and 8
percent more in Tier 1 than in the city county in 1910, 1920 and 1930,
respectively. In Tier 2, these proportions were 11, 10 and 9 percent more;
in Tier 3, 12, 10 and 10 percent more; in Tier 4, 15, 12 and 11 percent
more.
f 544 1
RURAL LIFE
It has long been recognized of course that fecundity of population
is a characteristic of rurality but it has not been generally known that
this is a matter of degree, measurable in terms of distances from urban
centers.
Cultural Relations: Education and Illiteracy. — Education is one index
that was used to study the rural-urban cultural influences in the eighteen
areas. Inspection of the proportions of children from 7 to 13 years, the
compulsory school ages, attending school indicates that a greater propor-
tion of children was attending school in 1930 than in 1920. There was a
tendency in 1920 for the proportions to decrease with distance from the
urban county. If the south is excluded, the ratios are 95.8, 94.8, 94.1,
94.6 and 91.2, respectively for the city county and the four tiers. By 1930
this tendency evened out so that in general the proportions attending
school are tending towards a constant, the ratios being 98.1, 97.8, 97.9,
97.6 and 97.7. It is significant to point out that the south in both decades
had a smaller proportion of its children in school than the rest of the
United States.
Passing from the compulsory school ages to the proportions in school
for the ages of 14 and 15, 16 and 17, and 18 to 20, Table 14 indicates the
trends with the south included.
TABLE 14. — PROPORTIONS OF SPECIFIED AGE-GROUPS IN SCHOOL BY TIERS OF COUNTIES
SURROUNDING CITY CENTERS, 1910-1930°
Tiers of counties
Year
First
Second
Third
Fourth
AGE 14 AND 15
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
1920
85.2
83.6
84.7
84.6
84 1
1030
92 7
88 8
88 6
89 1
89 3
AGE 16 AND 17
1920
46 8
49 1
51 4
52 2
54 3
1930 . . .
65 4
61 5
60 2
62 7
64 6
AGE 18 TO 20
1910
15.3
18.7
19.8
19.1
21.0
1920
17.2
17.8
18.6
18.8
21.1
1930
25.5
24.3
23.1
24.1
28.8
a Same as for Table 9. 1910 data not available for first two age groups.
The compulsory school age trend is maintained in the proportion
of the 14 and 15 year old groups in school. The city county has a some-
what larger proportion in school but the difference is not great. The
four tiers of counties maintain an almost constant ratio for both 1920
and 1930.
[545 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In 1920 the proportion of those 16 and 17 years of age in school for
all areas was 49.2; by 1930 this ratio had increased to 62.2, indicating
the marked increase in secondary education. In 1920, the city tier had
a smaller proportion than the non-urban tiers. In fact there seemed
to be a tendency for the proportions in school of these ages to increase
from the urban tier. By 1930, however, the urban tier had changed its
position. It then had the largest proportion in school, and this change
despite increases in all tiers.
The ratio of persons of the age group 18 to 20 in school in all areas
did not change from 1910 to 1920 but increased sharply from 1920 to 1930.
The actual proportions were 18.0, 18.0 and 24.3 in 1910, 1920 and 1930,
respectively. The city county had a significantly smaller percentage
in school in 1910 than did the non-urban tiers, 15.3 percent, whereas the
percentages were respectively 18.7, 19.8, 19.1 and 21.0 for Tiers 1 through
4. By 1920 the city county ratio had increased to 17.2. The non-urban
tiers in general lost slightly between 1910 and 1920. All groups gained
sharply from 1920 to 1930. The city county and the non-urban tiers
became more alike in the proportion of the 18 to 20 age group in school.
The average deviation from the urban proportion was 4.1 in 1910, which
was reduced to 1.9 in 1920, and in 1930 was 2.1.
Another indication of the cultural relations is the illiteracy ratio as
shown in Table 15 for all regions except the south. The tendency for
TABLE 15. — ILLITERACY RATIO BY TIERS OF COUNTIES SURROUNDING CITY CENTERS,
1910-1930°
Year
City
county
Tiers of counties
First
Second
Third
Fourth
1910
Percent
2.7
2.1
1.5
Percent
2.7
1.9
1.6
Percent
2.3
1.8
1.3
Percent
2.1
1.6
1.3
Percent
2.8
2.1
1.3
1920
1930
<" Same as for Table 9.
the rate to decline is consistent as the outer tiers are reached, indicating
the probable influence of the city's foreign born to raise the percentage
nearer the city. In the south the tendencies are irregular in the matter
of the county tiers but show decreases in the twenty-year period, greater
in the city county than in the tiers.
What of Adjustments and Accommodations? — From the brief sketch
presented it is evident that the rural-urban relationships have increasing
importance and follow a plan of gradual gradations. Moreover, these
[ 546 ]
RURAL LIFE
relationships of the relatively smaller cities are merged into a larger
plan of the great metropolitan centers and their tributary regions. This
is discussed in the preceding chapter, but questions now arise regard-
ing the adjustments which are necessary and the accommodations
which are actually taking place in this newer phase of rural-urban life.
Certain types of cooperation are seemingly being achieved between
village and country in the larger rural community plan already dis-
cussed. The future will have to record the results of this larger coali-
tion of the city, the village and the country. Certain it is that there is
opportunity for much experimentation in the increasing use of the city
by the villager and the farmer and that their growing acquaintance
with it has not yet brought agreement on many fundamental points.
The conflict of urban and rural interests, expressed in different philoso-
phies of government sponsored by Hamilton and Jefferson, has surged
to the fore more than once in the succeeding decades and has acquired
new importance in this decade or more of agricultural depression. Its
many aspects would make a study in themselves. Typical of them is
the story of the fight for the McNary-Haugen bill, providing an equaliza-
tion fee on exported farm products which its advocates declared "would
do for American agriculture what the tariff had done for industry."46
In the final passage of this bill party lines were abandoned. West of
the Mississippi River the only votes against the bill in the House of
Representatives were cast by congressmen from the cities. Among the
representatives east of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon
line the only votes for the bill were by congressmen from the rural con-
stituencies. This held true even of the delegation from as urban and
industrial a state as Pennsylvania.
There are also issues more local in character which will require
a great degree of rural and urban consent, if not of active cooperation.
Only three can be simply enumerated here. First, there is the question
of larger regional social planning.47 This can hardly come about without
recognition of the wider rural-urban relationship which has been here
discussed. A few of the items to be considered are: classification of land
on the basis of its appropriate use; highway construction still focused
at the city center, but likewise making more accessible those tiers of
counties naturally tributary to the center and also taking account of
natural scenery and the contour of the land; the restoration or the
establishment of recreation places for rural and urban people alike; and
the preservation of the water supply and, where possible, of the forests
and wooded areas of the hinterlands.
46 Congressional Digest, May, 1924, vol. 3, p, 263-79.
47 On city and regional planning, see Chap. IX.
[547]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Second is the matter of equalizing various opportunities throughout
the rural-urban area, as, for example, education. The tendency toward
more state aid, made available through taxes collected in the cities and
distributed to the rural districts, has been discussed. The problem is:
Will this policy be continued and extended once the cities become more
fully aware of what they are really doing, especially as their power tends
to increase in legislative halls? The same situation prevails when it
comes to extending into rural areas those agencies and facilities for health,
social welfare or child development which are essential to a modern
standard of living.
Third, circumstances surrounding the larger rural community, made
up of village and country, raised the issue — and now the wider sphere
of the rural-urban relations brings it into new relief — that local govern-
ment in America no longer corresponds in any sense to social or economic
reality.48 That is, governmental boundaries of counties, townships, or
school districts and other taxing units are frequently not coincident
with modern areas of service for such functions as education, health,
administration of justice and protection of life and property.
VI. RURAL LIFE IN LOCAL AND NATIONAL POLICIES
This chapter has chronicled the passing of the traditional rural
life as pictured in the literature of the nineteenth century, an era of our
national life which closed with the World War. Since then changes have
been rapid and the future trends of rural life have become uncertain.
Proportionately fewer people are engaged in agriculture than ever before.
Prior to the machine age this would have been counted a calamity but
the improved technologies have multiplied per man production to such
an extent that, in spite of increased specialization and because of shrink-
ing markets, farmers today fear their very success will prove their un-
doing. Indeed in some areas many farm families have already given up
their recently acquired standards of living and have been forced back
toward a self-sufficing economy.
Direction of Readjustments Dependent Upon National Policy. —
Readjustments are inevitable. The directions they may take for agri-
culture and rural life will depend upon the manner in which issues of
national policy are settled. If America further reduces her international
contacts by continuing various isolationist policies, then farmers who
in other times supplied half the nation's exports face the necessity of
radical reorganizations of farming procedures, particularly in the spe-
cialized crop areas of cotton, livestock and the bread grains. Corre-
sponding reductions in rural population and readjustments in standards
of living will follow inevitably. Some of the implications for the nation
48 On county government, see Chap. XXV.
[ 548 1
RURAL LIFE
of such a movement may be understood if one considers the facts pre-
sented regarding the volume and the value of rural retail purchasing
reported by the 1930 Census of Distribution.
On the other hand, if world commerce is restored and city markets
are revived, then agriculture and rural life will look for further changes
in the general direction of the movements traced in this chapter. To be
sure, many readjustments of other character will be required. For ex-
ample, little improvement can be hoped for as long as the farmers' buying
power is so far out of line with that of people of urban communities.
Only an approximation to some such relationship as existed in 1910-1914
or in 1929 can prevent definite lowering of family and community stand-
ards in rural areas, for under present conditions the actual debt of the
farmer has increased several fold in terms of the commodities by the
sale of which he must pay his debts. Similarly, taxes have quadrupled
and only scattered efforts have been made to change the outmoded base
upon which they are assessed or the outgrown system by which they
are levied. Testimony gathered throughout the study was emphatic
as to the importance which farmers and villagers the nation over attach
to these issues.
Issues Growing Out of Rural Population Changes. — Other issues
seem to pale beside them, yet upon closer attention it is evident that
there are important questions, not apart from, but related to, the central
one of national policy. Take the matter of rural population, its increasing
mobility and its changing characteristics. The pressures upon agri-
culture have produced a shift of population from country to city, which,
though now reversed, raises the question of the attitude of the city and
the country toward each other's problems. It has often been pointed
out that the farmer's desire for high commodity prices and the city
man's desire for cheap food create a fundamental cleavage. The issue is
deeper than this. It involves the whole matter of equality of opportunity,
not merely economically, but also in the wider and yet more intimate
affairs of social life. Can a farm minority receive an understanding
consideration of its needs and its place in the national life? Shall farm,
village and small city, growing together as they have been shown to be,
make common cause ? Would urban well being suffer thereby ?
Closely akin to population mobility is the changing structure and
character of the population. Country and village society have, in recent
years, by the very fact of their increased mobility been exposed to and
influenced by the same forces that have been affecting urban society
through the years. Rural society is losing, for instance, one of its dis-
tinguishing characteristics, its high ratio of children. The resulting
future structure of the whole population may be forecast by the village
of today, which, as this study has shown, is tending toward greater
[ 549 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
stability in many respects, its growth being at about the national rate
and its population characteristics becoming a mid-point which both
country and city are tending to approach. Granting the continuance
of this trend of the past twenty years, the nation can no longer count
on most of rural America as the "seed bed" from which to replenish its
population.
Adaptations Involving Country, Village, City. — In the plan of the
chapter the village was considered second in order. From the preceeding
paragraphs it is evident that any sequence is difficult to maintain, for
social life is marked by its interrelations and rural life today is no excep-
tion. It must not be suggested, therefore, that the village is immune from
the necessity of making adaptations to new issues. Once socially a thing
apart, little more than a trade center and often an exploiter of the coun-
tryside, it is now becoming the center for a larger and more integrated
rural community. Its services, commercial and institutional, and its
occupational distributions alike show a trend toward greater specializa-
tion with variations according to size and location. This specialization
is seen to be working in three ways. First, there are some things which
the villages can do better for the community than can either the city
or the country. Second, there are some things the country can best accom-
plish for itself. Third, there are some things which only the city is large
enough or strong enough to do, providing it is wise enough to be sensitive
to the changing needs of farm and village. The problem is to determine
what these various things really are and then to set about doing them
in a systematic and cooperative way. For it is becoming evident that
certain groups of these things to do, i.e., functions or services, tend to
cumulate in centers of a certain type and size. For instance, places of
less than 500 population, in many regions at least, are likely to fall back
to the status of hamlets, while places of about 1,000 to 1,500 and also of
about 2,500 to 3,000 appear to have achieved a degree of specialization.
Their service areas have rather "settled down" to a working unit. Good
roads have existed long enough to produce this result and the automobile
is no longer a novelty. Places of 5,000, and again of 10,000, appear to
follow much this same tendency. Similar tendencies appear to characterize
metropolitan areas of various sizes, as is shown in the chapter on the city.49
In the case of the country, its isolation is seen to have been largely
lost, but this does not imply that its identity is also lost, nor that it has
been swept entirely into the village or the city, as some of the earlier
prophets of the automobile age foretold. Many country groups and
institutions have disappeared, it is true, but others persist. The cross-
roads school and the open country church are still to be found by the
tens of thousands. Most tenacious of all are the units of local govern-
49 Chap. IX. '
[ 550 ]
RURAL LIFE
ment, practically unchanged in area or in function since the days of the
pioneers. This is a real difficulty calling for statesmanlike consideration.
To be sure, many readjustments are being effected in the country.
Tendencies toward consolidation of schools and cooperation of churches
have been pointed out. New social and business groupings are being
constructed to meet new needs or interests and old forms are being
reconstructed. The cooperatives are the best illustration in point. Simi-
larly, if other organizations are to survive, it would seem that they must
likewise adapt themselves. If this be true, the implications for school,
church and the agricultural extension service are many.
The larger rural community, consisting of country and village or
small town constituencies, was considered next. The problem for the
future here is to determine more adequately the various unit require-
ments, as number of people, tax base, abilities to pay, unit costs, or
reasonable area for the various institutions and agencies needed in the
community, and then to secure some semblance of coordination. There
is a tendency in many quarters to develop different institutions or func-
tions independently, resulting in over-lapping, ad hoc districts with
separate administrations. The difficulties in such situations are obvious.
A further problem of building the larger community that will effec-
tively unite country and village is excellently illustrated by the case of
the high school. The day of the country school as an effective educational
and social center is gone. May not the high school, with its agricultural,
home economics and commercial departments serving both country and
village, be considered as a possible center of the future for both the
youths and the adults of the larger community? Conservative farmers,
however, cling to old, small and expensive country districts as administra-
tion units, despite the facts that the number of children has decreased,
that costs have increased and that the tax base is inadequate. Some states
have begun to experiment with county and a few with state systems of
administration.
Either there must be consolidation for at least the high school work,
or else the country pupils must attend the village school on a cost of
tuition plan. In the latter case, as was shown, the country parents have
no voice in making the policies of the school, nor do they share in capital
costs. Many other questions present themselves: how to secure a legal
school district that will not cut across existing township lines, village
corporate boundaries or other school districts; how to administer state
aid and on what principles it can be justified to the city; how to coordinate
elementary and high school grades, and so on. The ramifications of this
or any other specific problem show how many issues in rural life extend
through the whole gamut of society's affairs, from farm to village, to
community, to city and to state and nation.
[ 551 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Finally, while farmer and villager have united in building an enlarged
community, the contacts of both with the city have increased both
directly and indirectly. Naturally, therefore, as one observes the pattern
of life in concentric zones around the city the old differences between
urban and rural begin to fade. Rural and urban become only relative
matters. If there has been urbanization of the country there has also
been ruralization of the city by the urbanward migration of millions of
rural people. In local as well as national issues the twentieth century
is spinning a web in which city, village and country, no longer separate
entities, are being brought together.
Thus far, then, have the social changes of the present period brought
rural America. The trends which this chapter has discussed reached
new high points during a period of prosperity. The levels attained were
held to tenaciously during the earlier years of agricultural distress, and
in the brief period of improvement of 1928-1929 the farmer dared to
entertain hopes of maintaining them. Then came the general crash and
the prospect seemed darker than ever. If and when the nation recovers
and the farmer achieves the adjustment which seemed approaching in
early 1929, these trends may be regarded as a prophecy. If, on the other
hand, 1931-1932 shall prove to have ushered in a new and starker period
than America has yet known, they represent a high water mark not soon
to be reached again.
[552]
CHAPTER XI
THE STATUS OF RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS1
BY T. J. WOOFTEB, JR.
THE normal community in the United States is made up of people
of various races and nationalities. Only the mountainous and
isolated regions are peopled entirely by native born white persons.
If the presence of at least 1,000 members of a race other than the white, or
1,000 persons born outside the United States may be taken as a standard
of heterogeneity,2 there were in 1920 more than 2,000 heterogeneous
counties — two thirds of the total number.3 Heterogeneity is greatest
along the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards and lowest in the mountain
states and the southwest. From 1920 to 1930 there was little change
on the seaboard but the heterogeneity of the interior was increased
by the industrialization of the middle west and the increase in the number
of Mexicans in the southwest.
It is impossible to imagine the trend of America's development
without considering the contributions of people of other races and
other nationalities. The expansion of agriculture and industry have
required their labor; many have been leaders in their communities
and have injected new ideas into the life of the nation; some have held
high positions of trust in the state and national governments and in
business. Over 9 percent of those listed in Who's Who in America for 1929
were foreign born. Even when reduced to about 8 percent by omitting
the children of American parents born in foreign lands, this is a remark-
able contribution for the foreign born group which constitute only 11
percent of the total population.
As long as land was free and the country was relatively underpopu-
lated strangers were welcome. Political tradition made the United States
an asylum for oppressed peoples, economic necessity created a demand
1 The author is indebted to his assistant, Hugh P. Brinton, for aid in gathering the
materials and especially in preparing the sections on immigration and health, to Guy B.
Johnson for the materials on Negro prejudice, to the Foreign Language Information Service
and to Mark Villehur for material on the Foreign Language Press.
2 No treatment of the Jews is included in this chapter for the reason that separate
statistics of this group are not available and for the further reason that the group is not
homogeneous, including a number who are descended from many generations of native
parents and others who are aliens of several nationalities.
3 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1920, Composition
of Population by Counties.
[ 553 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
for their services and as long as these factors influenced opinion there
was no restriction on immigration. But the beginning of the twentieth
century witnessed a radical change. The supply of free land was ex-
hausted and the profits from extensive agriculture were declining.
During the World War it was discovered that surplus labor on the
farms in certain sections of the country could partially fill the places in
industry which formerly had been held by immigrants. Organized labor,
having increased its political strength, sponsored the policy of limited
immigration. Agressive nationalistic agitation within various groups
of European origin during the World War led many people to believe
that the unity of the country was threatened. A shift of immigration from
northwestern Europe to southeastern Europe and Russia emphasized
the problems of assimilation. Finally the very magnitude of the move-
ment and probability that its volume would increase with the disorganiza-
tion of whole nations reenforced the demand for restrictions as a method
of control. As a result immigration was placed on a quota basis, and the
annual number admitted from Europe in 1929 was reduced to about
150,000 whereas net immigration from 1907 to 1914 had averaged over
650,000 per year, rising in some years to more than 1, 200,000. 4
This chapter is primarily concerned with recent changes and for the
most part with those which have occurred since 1900.6 The salient
features of the situation in that year may be summarized as follows :
1. A growing immigrant population was divided between the older
settlers on the farms of the middle west and the newer immigrants in the
industrial cities of the east. The newer element in response to the pull
of expanding industry was entering the country at a rate of between half
a million and a million per year.
2. There was a relatively stable Negro population whose rapid rate
of increase was on the decline and whose location was for the most part
in the south.
3. A small and slowly increasing Indian population was segregated in
reservations.
4. There was an Oriental population largely confined to the Pacific
states whose increase by immigration had been greatly reduced by ex-
clusion acts and agreements.
5. A small Mexican population was confined to the border counties.
The demand for the labor of these groups was slackening in most
of the rural sections except in the Pacific and southwestern states and
was increasing in the industrial sections of the east and middle west.
4 The figures on net or annual immigration refer to excess of arrivals over departures
as reported by the commissioner general of immigration. On the increase of population by
immigration, see Chap. I.
6 For a more detailed treatment of the topics discussed in this chapter, see the mono-
graph in this series entitled Races and Ethnic Groups in American Life.
[ 554 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
The political tradition of hospitality was quiescent or waning. Among
the middle classes the tradition was one of disapproval socially and
exploitation economically. Organized labor was antagonistic. The most
fundamental changes in the relations of the immigrants to society
were developing out of the growth of second and third generations which
began to bridge the gap between the alien and the native culture. The
most fundamental changes in relationships between Negroes and whites
were developing from the stratification of the Negro population and the
emergence of a Negro middle class.
The changes which have occurred in the relation of ethnic groups
have been intimately interrelated and it is this interrelation which
must be kept in mind in reading this chapter. For instance, immigration
was no sooner restricted than the vacuum thus created drew hundreds
of thousands of southern Negroes from the farm to the industrial cities,
a movement with manifold repercussions upon the Negro population.
Deficiency of European immigration also encouraged a flood from
our northern and southern neighbors, Canada and Mexico. It also served
to increase the movement from the territories, Porto Rico, Hawaii and
the Philippines to the continental United States. Naturally, such radical
changes in population have had wide ramifications which appear in other
chapters of this report. The quality and the quantity of labor has been
changed. Agriculture and industry have been affected. Problems of health,
dependency and delinquency have been complicated in some communi-
ties. The reduction in the rate of increase in the population and the sub-
stitution of people with different standards of living has affected the
quantity and quality of goods consumed.
I. INCREASE AND DISTRIBUTION
The various groups may be roughly divided as follows: first, those
increasing principally by immigration — the foreign born (including the
Mexicans) and the immigrating citizens of our own territories; second,
those increasing principally by excess of births over deaths — the Indians,
Negroes, and the children of the foreign born.
The relative weight of the two types of increase in each ethnic group
is shown in Table I.6 While the effects of immigration and natural increase
will be separately discussed in the following pages, it is well to visualize
the combined result as pictured by Table 1. The outstanding fact is that
between 1920 and 1930 the white groups increased 15.7 percent and
the colored 20.0.7
6 See also population figures given in Chap. I.
7 Even when a liberal allowance is made for an undercount of Negroes in 1920, this
differential holds, especially for the last six years of the decade.
[ 555 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
It is evident that the present trend is even more marked than the
table indicates. In the first four years of the decade the whites were in-
creasing about as fast as the colored. The shift has therefore taken place
largely between 1924 and 1930, that is since the restriction of immigration
went into effect. It is estimated that during the latter part of the decade
the colored population formed about 11.3 percent of the total population
and contributed about 15 percent of the total increase. As shown in
Chapter I, the quota laws have decreased the proportion of foreign whites
and will subsequently decrease the proportion of children of immigrant
parents. As this was the most fertile segment of the white population,
the white birth rate has declined. In becoming less foreign white the
country has become more colored.
TABLE 1. — POPULATION OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES, BY RACE AND NATIVITY,
WITH PERCENT OF INCREASE, 1910, 1930°
Race
Number in thousands
Percent increase
1010
1920
1930
Decennial,
1910-1920
Decennial,
1920-1930
91,972
81,350
105,710
94,120
122,775
108,864
15.0
16.7
16.1
15.7
Total white
Native parentage
Foreign or mixed parentage
Foreign born
Total colored
49,489
18,735
13,186
10,622
58,421
22,435
13,264
11,590
70,137
25,361
13,366
13,911
18.0
19.7
1.0
9.1
20.0
13.0
.8
20.0
Negro
9,828
381
266
72
72
10,463
701
244
111
61
6
4
11,891
1,423
332
139
75
45
6
6.5
84.0
-12.1
54.0
-15.0
13.6
103.1
36.0
25.0
21.0
Mexican .
Indian . ...
Japanese
Chinese
Filipino
Other
» U. S. Census of Population, op. tit., 1920 and 1930.
Immigration. — Fifteen magazines were examined in an effort to
analyze public attitudes on immigration during the past thirty years.
The study showed a growing popular interest in immigration up to 1925
at which time the magazines sampled were running an average of 34
articles a year. Since 1925 the volume of discussion has been cut in half,
indicating a feeling that the policy of controlling immigration has been
settled for the present at least.8
The discussion of immigration divides itself into several periods.
The first period was from 1900 to the passage of the law of 1907. Selection
8 Compare with figures on the volume of discussion of immigration in Chap. VIII.
I" 556 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
but not restriction was advocated. This end was to be secured by literacy
and physical tests, by better enforcement of existing laws, by increasing
the head tax and by examination in Europe. As for the immigrants
already here, interest centered upon the necessity for their better distribu-
tion in order to prevent the congestion of foreigners in the slums of large
cities. Purely descriptive studies of various racial groups were popular.
The second period, from 1907 to the beginning of the war in 1914,
marked a drift in sentiment towards restriction by means of the literacy
test. The undesirability of certain racial elements was beginning to be
mentioned. Within the United States the protection of immigrants by
private and governmental agencies was given important consideration.
The third or war period, extending from 1914 to 1918, included the
first real restriction measure, the literacy test of 1917. At home all atten-
tion was focused upon the Americanization of aliens in order to present a
unified front to the enemy.
The fourth period, from 1918 to 1924, saw the final realization of a re-
striction policy in the quota law of 1921 and the even more drastic law of
1924. Interest in Americanization was accompanied by anti-alien propa-
ganda and both reached their greatest volume at this time.
In the fifth period, from 1924 to 1930, there was a rapidly decreasing
interest in immigration. There was, however, discussion of the national
origins provision and of the newer groups, Mexicans and Canadians,
who were coming into this country.
Immigration Laws. — The restrictions placed upon European immigra-
tion before the World War were based entirely upon the defects of the
individual immigrant. Beginning in 1882 the provisions included first a
head tax (now eight dollars), exclusion of idiots, lunatics, persons likely
to become a public charge, convicts (except those convicted of a political
offense), contract laborers, epileptics, professional beggars, anarchists,
polygamists, prostitutes, tubercular persons, feeble minded persons,
persons with chronic alcoholism, vagrants and stowaways.
All these provisions, however, applied to a bare fraction of the num-
ber seeking entrance and hence the volume of immigration was only
slightly affected. In 1917 the much debated literacy test was added, the
last attempt to shut out applicants on the basis of personal defects.
The quota laws enacted in 1921, 1924 and 1929 did not repeal any of
the previous restrictions but added the principle of limiting to a specific
annual quota the number eligible to entry from any nation regardless of
the character of the persons applying after the quota has been used up.
The law of 1921 limited the number of immigrants from each nation to
three percent of the number of foreign born persons of such nationality
resident in the United States in 1910, as recorded in the census. This
number was still further limited in 1924 by restricting the entrants from
[ 557 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
each nation to two percent of the population of that nationality as of
the census of 1890. The national origins act of 1929 provided that the
annual total of 150,000 quota immigrants be apportioned in accordance
with the proportion of the various national stocks in the total population
in 1920.9
The law of 1924 established preferential classes. The first preference
was given to fathers, mothers or husbands of citizens of the United States
(wives being non-quota immigrants). This preference tended to increase
the age and balance the sex distribution of immigrants. The second pref-
erence was for quota immigrants who were skilled in agriculture.
Oriental immigration has always been on a different footing from
European. Since the Chinese exclusion act of 1882 and the Gentlemen's
Agreement with Japan in 1907, the net immigration from these nations
has been small. Notwithstanding this fact, the act of 1924 provided that
no alien ineligible for citizenship shall be admitted to the United States.
This is considered by Japan as a gratuitous insult, for the number of
her nationals admitted annually would have been very small if they had
been placed on the same quota basis as the others.
Along with the growth in the number of causes for which an alien
may be excluded there has been an increase in the causes for which aliens
may be deported and an extension of the period after entry during which
they are subject to deportation. A law has also been enacted declaring
that the return of a person who has been deported is a criminal offense.
The administrative practice and the decision of the courts in deportation
cases have considerably modified the causes of deportation as defined by
law and have, in effect, become a criminal code.10
There has been a steady increase in deportations. The annual number
has risen from 3,600 in 1923 to 16,600 in 1930. Before the World War pro-
fessional beggars and vagrants and persons becoming public charges
from causes prior to entry accounted for more than half the total deporta-
tions. The proportion of criminal and immoral persons to the total
deportees has varied slightly from 18 percent in 1911 to 15 percent in
1930. Mental and physical defectives have never formed an important
proportion, rarely exceeding 5 percent of the total. Since the passage of
the quota acts the deportations have been predominantly for violation
of the provisions of these laws.
Volume and Type of Immigration. — In 1911, 93 percent of our immi-
gration was from other continents; in 1929 only 52 percent was from
outside of North America. During the same period Mexico's proportion
increased from 3 percent to 16 percent and Canada's from 3 percent to
9 For estimates as to the population by country of origin, see Chap. I.
10 Van Vleck, Wm. C., The Administrative Control of Aliens, The Commonwealth Fund,
New York, 1932, p. 24.
[ 558 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
32 percent. Immigration from the dependencies of the United States has
also shown a rapid increase. Although these are in a sense citizens they
create a racial problem when resident in continental United States. The
immigration figures do not show the net immigration of these territorials
but do show the movement back and forth between the territories and
the continent and indicate that the greatest net gain has been from
Porto Rico, with Hawaii second and the Philippine Islands third. How-
ever, a number of those arriving from Hawaii are Filipinos who come by
that route. Thus there has been a definite tendency for immigration to
start from new sources when the old are shut off.
From the passage of the quota acts to 1930 no country sent less than
90 percent of its allotted quota. In 1930 every country except Great
Britain filled its national origins quota. Under quotas for 1924, 23,868
quota immigrants were admissible from countries of the so-called new
immigration and 140,794 from the old. The net change provided by the
national origins act was to increase the new country quotas from 24,000
to 29,000 and to decrease the old from 141,000 to 112,000. When the
volume of immigration before the quota acts is compared to that since
their passage it is evident that the proportion of immigrants from the
newer and older sources has been reversed. In the period 1910-1914, 20
percent came from the older immigrant nationalities and 80 percent from
the new. Under the quotas 1925-1929, 86 percent came from the old
and 14 » percent from the new.
The distribution of our foreign born population by country of birth
at the successive censuses of 1910, 1920 and 1930 is shown in Table 2.
The immigrants from the new sources constituted 45 percent of the
European foreign born in this country in 1910. This proportion increased
to 54 percent in 1920 and remained at that point in 1930. Of the children
of foreign or mixed parents 18 percent were of newer immigrant parentage
in 1910 and 33 percent in 1920, the increases between 1910 and 1920 and
decreases from 1920 to 1930 chiefly affecting the groups from Italy,
Russia and Poland.
Owing to the economic situation and the preferential admission of
wives, the proportion of females among the immigrants has risen sharply
in recent years. In 1900 immigration was 68 percent male; in 1922 it had
dropped to 50 percent and it has remained slightly below 50 percent since
that date. In 1920 there were 121 foreign born males for each 100 foreign
born females, while in 1930 there were only 115 males for each 100
females.
Owing to the preference for members of families of citizens, a larger
number of old people and children have been included in recent immi-
gration. The percentage over 45 years of age has increased from 5 in 1900
to 9 in 1930. The exact increase in the number of children cannot be de-
F 559 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ter mined because of a change in the age classification. But the children
under 14 years of age constituted only 12 percent of the aliens admitted
from 1900 to 1910, while those under 16 constituted 18 percent of the
admissions from 1910 to 1930.
TABLE 2. — COUNTRY OF BIRTH OF FOREIGN POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES, 1910-1930
((N) indicates new immigrant nationality. (O) indicates old immigrant nationality.)
Country
1910
1920
1930
Austria (N)
"845 555
575 627
370 914
Belgium (O)
49 400
62 687
64 194
Czechoslovakia (N)
362 438
491 368
Denmark (O)
6181,649
189 154
179 474
Finland (N)
129 680
149 824
77 059
France (O)
bl 17,418
153 072
132 232
Germany (O)
°2,31 1,237
1,686 108
1 608 814
Great Britain (O)
1,221,283
1,135,489
1,223 000
Greece (N)
*101,282
175,976
174 526
Hungary (N)
6495,609
397,283
274 450
Ireland (O)
1,352,251
1,037,234
923 624
Italy (N)
*>1,343,125
1,610,113
1,790,424
Lithuania (N)
Netherlands (O)
(*)
120,063
135,068
131,766
193,606
133,133
Norway (O)
403,877
363,863
347,852
Poland (N)
Portugal (N)
"937,884
59,360
1,139,979
69,981
1,268,583
69,974
Rumania (N)
665,923
102,823
146,393
Russia (N)
°1 184 412
1 400 495
1 177 847
Spain (N)
22 108
49 535
58 302
Sweden (O)
665 207
625 585
595 250
Switzerland (O)
124,848
118 659
113 010
Yugoslavia (N)
169,439
211,416
All other (N)
56,670
39,855
72,720
New immigration
5,244,608
6,378,436
6,377,583
Old immigration
Percent new
6,547,233
44 5
5,503,617
53 7
5,320,583
54 5
Percent old
55.5
46 3
45.5
All Europe
11,791,841
11,882,053
11,698,166
Canada
1,209,717
1,138,174
1,278,421
Mexico
221,915
486,418
(*)
0 Persons reported in 1910 as of Polish mother tongue born in Germany, Austria and Russia have been
deducted from respective countries and combined as Poland.
6 Change in boundary in 1920 Census.
'Lithuania counted with Russia in 1910.
d Native and foreign born not yet tabulated.
There have also been marked changes in the character of immigrants
in respect to their previous occupations. Comparing the average of the
pre-war period 1911 to 1914 with the average of the quota period 1926
to 1929 it is evident that the small professional element has more than
trebled, rising from 1.7 percent to 5.9 percent of the total. Those previously
in skilled occupations increased from 20.0 percent to 30.8 percent.
[ 560 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
Notwithstanding the preference given to farmers, this group decreased
from 33.4 percent to 16.4 percent. There was a large decrease in unskilled
labor and a slight increase in servants.
The increase in Mexican migration was so rapid from 1920 to 1930 and
the problems resulting from it were so acute that this movement should be
analyzed separately. It has been noted that the Mexican element has
increased from 3 to 16 percent of all immigration within the past twenty
years. This has meant an increase from 400,000 in 1910 to nearly a million
and a half in 1930 in the number of persons born in Mexico or of Mexican
parentage. Of this million and a half about 65,000 were enumerated in
1930 as "white Mexicans" or those of Spanish descent,11 while the re-
maining 1,400,000 were of Indian and Negro descent. Some writers state
that because of the movement backward and forward across the border,
the census figures exaggerate the number of Mexicans. It is safe to say,
however, that enumerations made in the winter and early spring count
the minimum number because the seasonal demand for farm labor is not
at its height until later in the year. Like European immigration, Mexican
immigration fluctuates with the economic prosperity of this country.
From 1920 to 1930, however, there were several years when unsettled
political conditions in Mexico coincided with periods of great industrial
activity in the United States. With this double impetus the movement
across the border was heavy.
Natural Increase. — The increase of the foreign stocks has been dis-
cussed in Chapter I. Some observations on the increase in the color groups
are pertinent here.
Negro Increase. — The census figures seem to indicate that the natural
increase of Negroes was more rapid between 1920 and 1930 than formerly.
This is probably not the case since the Negro rate of increase was dwin-
dling steadily up to 1920. The rate of increase declined from 17.9 percent
in 1880-1890 to 6.6 percent in 1910-1920. On the face of the 1930 returns
the increase from 1920 to 1930 appears as double that of the previous
decade. Such a reversal of trend is hardly credible, since all the evidence
of vital statistics points to a slight diminution in the rate. It is more
probable that there was a slight undercount12 of Negroes in 1920 and
that the rate from 1910 to 1920 was somewhat higher than from 1920 to
1930.
The decline has been caused by a more rapid reduction in the birth
rate than in the death rate.13 In addition to the rising standard of living
and postponement of marriage, migration has proved a factor in reducing
11 This distinction is made by the Census Bureau in the 1930 enumeration of Mexicans;
whereas in 1920 all Mexicans were included as foreign born.
12 The Census Bureau estimates this undercount at 150,000. The author and other
investigators estimate between 300,000 and 350,000.
13 See discussion of Negro increase in Chap. I.
[ 561 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the birth rate. The manner in which migration unbalanced the sex and
age distribution is indicated in Table 3. Michigan, receiving migrants,
had a great excess of males in 1920, while Georgia, a source of the move-
ment, had an excess of females. Movement of women tended to balance
the Michigan ratio by 1930 while Georgia's continued loss by migration
further emphasized the excess of females. It will be noted from Table 3
that the age distribution in the two states was also unbalanced, a greater
TABLE 3. — AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF NEGRO POPULATION IN MICHIGAN AND GEORGIA,
1920 AND 1930°
Michigan
Georgia
1920
1930
1920
1930
Males per 100 females
132.6
6.9
6.2
5.6
6.8
14.3
15.9
11.9
17.9
8.9
3.3
1.5
.6
.2
100.0
110.5
9.0
8.7
6.7
6.4
10.5
14.3
12.7
18.4
8.5
3.0
1.1
.5
.2
100.0
95.9
12.0
13.7
18.2
11.2
10.1
8.0
5.7
10.7
8.3
3.9
2.1
.9
.1
100.0
92.1
10.8
12.5
12.3
12.5
10.5
7.7
5.7
11.0
8.9
4.7
2.2
1.1
.1
100.0
Age
Under 5 years
5— 9 years
10—14 years
15-19 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-34 years
35—44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65-74 years
75 years and over. ...
Unknown
All ages
« U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1930, I.
proportion of children and old people being left in Georgia and a greater
proportion of those in the vigorous productive ages being found in
Michigan. The age and sex distribution in the north was more normal
in 1930 than in 1920, hence there was a slight rise in the rate of Negro
increase in northern states during the decade.
Mexican Increase. — Since the Mexicans are the newest of the large
immigrant groups, there has not been sufficient time to rear a large second
generation born of parents of this nationality. In 1920 the ratio of natives
of Mexican or mixed parentage was 73 to 100 of the Mexican born, some-
what below that of the newer immigrant groups (96 to 100). In spite of
a high death rate, the Mexican rate of natural increase is high because of
the large excess of births. Any calculation of exact rates for this group
is difficult because of wide seasonal fluctuations in the population. The
report of the Fact Finding Committee appointed by the Governor of
California, indicates that in Los Angeles from 1918 to 1927 there was an
[ 562 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
average annual gross excess of births over deaths of 1,019 as against
4,307 for other groups. Thus the Mexicans contributed 24 percent of the
excess of births over deaths although they formed a much smaller pro-
portion of the population. Correspondence with several Texas cities
indicates that births are over one and one-half times as frequent as
deaths, and California figures indicate a birth rate approximating 40
per 1,000. 14
Other Groups. — The Indian increase of 88,000 from 1920 to 1930 is
also more apparent than real. From 1910 to 1920 the census showed a
decrease in Indians and from 1920 to 1930 an increase. This has come
about largely by differences in the manner and time of enumeration.
There are so many persons with merely a trace of Indian blood that the
enumerator's judgment is often a marked factor in classifying them as
Indians or white. The present trend seems to be a very slow increase or
slight decrease in persons with a large proportion of Indian blood and an
increasing number of individuals so nearly white that they are sometimes
classified one way and sometimes the other.
The Japanese increase of 27,800 appears consistent with the excess of
births over deaths. The natural increase exceeded that number but was
to a degree offset by a net decrease in immigration. The crude rate of
natural increase of the Japanese is high, approximating 40 per thousand.
This is largely because of the high proportion of women of child bearing
age in the group. Proper refinement of the rate for age and sex would
reduce it to a figure much nearer the native white ratio. There was an
increase of 13,000 in the Chinese from 1920 to 1930, which is difficult
to explain since both the immigration figures and the vital statistics for
the period register a net loss in the Chinese group. A similar discrepancy
in the 1910 and 1920 figures had been attributed to smuggling but it
would seem that an annual average of 1,300 smuggled Chinese for the
years 1920-1930 is excessive.15 Very little of the Filipino increase of
40,000 is to be credited to excess of births over deaths since this is a new
group with a negligible proportion of women.
Distribution. — Changes in the distribution of racial groups are
important because race relations vary with the number and concentra-
tion of minority groups. A natural geographic segregation takes place,
the Negroes in the south, the foreign born in the east and middle west,
the Mexicans in the southwest and the Orientals on the Pacific coast.
The segregating process also operates within communities. New York
has its Chinatown, Little Italy, Ghetto and Harlem. Other cities show
14 California State Bureau of Vital Statistics reports an average of 12,752 Mexican
births in 1926, 1927, 1928. Estimated Mexican Population, July 1, 1927, 298,000.
15 Fry, C. Luther, "Illegal Entry of Orientals into the United States Between 1910-
1920," Journal of the American Statistical Association, June, 1928, vol. XXIII, New Series
no. 162, p, 173,
[ 563 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
as distinct cleavages. This separation creates a community solidarity
and a sense of security in the minority races but it exposes them to
exploitation and neglect if they are not protected by social or political
organizations. At best it is difficult to protect these groups from ex-
ploitation in the form of high rents, poor housing and other economic
disadvantages .
Between 1920 and 1930, however, the general trend has been toward
less of this regional and neighborhood segregation. Population movements
from one section to another have distributed racial groups more widely,
especially into smaller industrial centers, while sub-urbanization and
movements within the cities have scattered members of the foreign and
colored colonies in mixed neighborhoods.
The Movement of Foreign Born and Their Children. — The relative
importance of the foreign born in different sections of the country has
varied considerably since 1900, as is shown in Table 4.16 It is apparent
from this table that the sections which have showed marked increases are
New England and the middle Atlantic, west north central and far western
regions. The increase in the west south central states has been largely
made up of Mexicans and in spite of a number of sporadic efforts to attract
immigrants, the southeast has never had a large number of foreigners.
On the other hand the west north central has a declining number of
foreign born.
The increases in the middle western and Atlantic seaboard regions
have been associated with industrial development and a relatively stable
farm population. The increases in foreign born in the Pacific and moun-
tain regions are associated with mining and agricultural expansion. The
decline in the west north central region resulted from the fact that the older
members of long established immigrant farm communities are dying
out without being replaced by new immigration.
Carpenter17 points out that the proportions of immigrants of the
second generation in the various sections remain about the same as the
proportions of immigrants and concludes that "immigrant children
remain in the same section of the country as their parents, or the one
adjoining it."
The foreign born have always tended to concentrate in urban regions
and from 1910 to 1930 those in the country moved cityward as rapidly
as the native born. The earlier waves of migration included many who
settled on the land. The newer movement is predominantly urban. For
example the farm colonies of the foreign born in the middle west which
have been such a substantial element of the population are shrinking
16 Compare with regional groupings in Chap. I.
17 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Niles Carpenter, Immigrants and Their Children, 1920,
1927, Census Monographs 7, p. 19.
[564]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
without being repopulated by new immigrants. All of these states show
a substantial decrease in the actual number of their foreign born and a
relatively smaller proportion of foreign born who live on farms. The
census of 1930 shows that 62 to 78 percent of the rural farm population
of the middle western states are more than 45 years of age, indicating
TABLE 4. — FOREIGN BORN AND FOREIGN WHITE STOCK, BY GEOGRAPHICAL DIVISIONS,
1900-1930"
(In thousands)
Division
Foreign born white
Native white of foreign or mixed
parentage
1900
1910
1920*
1930
1900
1910
1920
1930
New England
1,437
3,302
2,620
1,531
209
90
264
288
472
10,314
1,814
4,826
3,067
1,613
291
87
349
437
861
13,345
1,871
4,910
3,217
1,351
316
72
208
361
951
13,255
1,834
5,269
3,223
1,059
304
58
170
288
1,160
13,366
1,579
4,402
4,602
2,874
390
229
478
437
656
15,646
2,053
5,591
4,108
3,215
440
215
605
617
1,054
18,898
2,642
7,098
5,925
3,378
554
203
697
757
1,432
22,686
3,064
8,453
6,553
3,267
633
195
576
715
1,904
25,361
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East south central
West south central
Pacific
United States
0 U. S. Census of Population, op. cit.
6 Adjusted for Mexican Population.
that there will be a still further reduction of this element by death. In
the same states the children of immigrants show similar rural decreases.
New England, New Jersey and parts of Pennsylvania, however, show a
foreign population which is stable, the deaths being about balanced by
new immigrant farmers.
Mexican Movement. — The Mexicans also show tendencies to scatter
from their stronghold in the southwest. In 1920, 85 percent were in
California, Arizona and Texas, while only 82 percent were in these states
in 1930. Striking increases occurred in Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas,
Illinois, Michigan and Indiana and slight increases even in New York,
New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
The seasonal movement of Mexicans is as great a factor in their social
life as the long range movement. Because they engage in seasonal labor
on railroads and on farms they migrate from place to place and have
gained the reputation of gypsies. Some tendency toward more permanent
settlement is noted. Farmers of several sections are successfully attempt-
ing to hold their Mexican labor by offering permanent houses. The in-
dustrial settlements such as those in Chicago, Detroit, Gary and
Bethlehem are relatively permanent.
[ 565 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Negro Movement. — In recent years the most spectacular movement of
the population within the United States has been the shift of hundreds
of thousands of Negroes from south to north, introducing into industry
a new type of labor and changing the environment of the migrants from
the most rural to the most metropolitan. The great majority of the
Negro migrants have moved since 1910. At that census only 4.8 percent
of the southern born Negroes were living elsewhere and most of these
had migrated from the border states, Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Between 1910 and 1920, however, a number of new factors caused a
movement from the heart of the black belt. The principal elements
in the situation were (1) the long standing and deep seated dissatisfaction
with conditions in the south centering around the economic disadvantages
of the tenant system and the difficulty which the Negro experienced
in escaping from it, (2) discontent with the school facilities provided by
southern communities, and (3) a feeling of insecurity in some communities
because of inadequate protection for the life and property of Negro
citizens. In addition to these, the cessation of European migration and the
war demands for labor created a vacuum in the industrial labor market
and drew thousands of Negroes to the east and middle west to fill it. At
the same time the boll weevil was ruining crops in the southeast and dis-
organizing the tenant system to such an extent that thousands of Negroes
were literally forced to leave in order to live. By 1920 there were 780,000
southern born Negroes living in the north and west, 8.1 percent of the
total. The increase in the north was nearly half a million from 1910 to
1920, or 45 percent. Between 1920 and 1930 the increase was almost a
million, or 63 percent. Table 5 shows the increases in the north and south
for the period 1910-1930. 18
While this movement brought new and large aggregations of Negroes
to the north, it thinned out the Negroes in the rural south. In this con-
nection it may be said that the natural increase of the southern rural
white population is greater than that of the Negroes. This excess plus
the migration of Negroes is rapidly "whitening" the southern rural
districts. Over a period of years such change in the racial proportions can
be expected materially to affect the relationship between the southern
white population and the Negroes. The movement of Negroes is pre-
dominantly a process of urbanization as northern rural districts have
attracted very few migrants. Negro groups in both southern and northern
cities have grown rapidly, as shown in Table 5.
The social effects of this movement have been varied. The rise in the
standard of living has meant an increase in home ownership19 and other
18 Compare with Chap. I.
19 Woofter, T. J. Jr., et al.p Negro Problems in Cities, Garden City, New York, 1928,
p. 21 f ., 173 f.
[ 566 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
advances in family life. Superior school facilities are available in the large
cities. While the change in climate and housing has some adverse effects
as shown by the rates of tuberculosis and pneumonia, the superior public
health programs of large cities in a large measure offset this. Problems of
adjustments are brought to the social agencies of the migrant com-
munities, especially those dealing with child welfare and recreation.
Politically the shift of large numbers from non- voting areas to areas where
there is no restriction on suffrage adds to the power of Negroes.
TABLE 5. — NEGRO URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION, BY REGIONS, 1900-1930
(In thousands)
Areas
Population
Increase"
1900
1910
1920
1930
1900-1910
1910-1920
1920-1930
Total United States:
Urban
2,002
6,832
1,365
6,558
637
274
2,685
7,143
1,854
6,895
830
248
3,560
6,903
2,251
6,661
1,309
242
5,194
6,697
2,966
6,395
2,228
302
688
311
490
837
193
26
875
-239
897
-234
478
6
1,634
-206
715
-266
919
60
Rural
Southern states:*
Urban
Rural
Northern and western states:
Urban
Rural
a Minus sign denotes decrease.
6 Includes following census divisions: south Atlantic, east south central, and west south central.
II. ECONOMIC LIFE
The economic experiences of the minority groups are roughly similar.
In all cases except that of the Indian, the coming of the aliens has been
stimulated by a vigorous demand for their labor. They have been wel-
comed because they could and would do things which the native laborer
did not wish to do. They would accept wages which, while higher than
those to which they had previously been accustomed, were still lower than
those paid to the native workers. They have often been hampered in
employment because of the prejudice of native workers and ill considered
opinions of employers as to the type of work for which they were fitted.
In short each group has had to push its way up from the bottom.
Agriculture. — As long as cheap land was available in quantity there
was no noticeable competition between the various groups in agriculture,
but when the supply of land became limited there was a tendency for
groups with a lower standard of living to supplant those with a higher
standard, especially in positions as farm laborers and tenants. Up to the
time of the passage of the alien land laws the Japanese in California were
[ 567 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
rapidly replacing natives. Until 1910 the Negroes in the south were
increasing more rapidly than the whites as independent owners and cash
tenants. In sections of Texas the Mexicans have now begun to crowd the
Negroes from cotton culture, and recently in New England the foreign
born, particularly the Poles, have begun to take over land long cultivated
by natives.
Immigrant Farmers. — The foreign born farmers who developed some
of our most prosperous agricultural communities are dwindling in
number and in proportion to the total. This decrease is entirely from the
ranks of the old immigrant farmers who settled some time ago in the
middle west and who have now reached the age where they are dying
out without replacement. The recruits in the ranks of the new immigrant
farmers are settling along the Atlantic coast. Between 1910 and 1920
the farm operators among the old immigrants decreased 26.6 percent
and those among the new immigrants increased 13.7 percent.20
Little has resulted from the preference shown by the recent immigra-
tion laws for immigrants with farming experience. The annual admissions
of aliens who have had agricultural experience (including Mexicans) total
only about 30,000 and not all of these seek the land for a livelihood.
Foreign born farmers operate in such varied sections that it is difficult
to generalize as to their condition. There are, however, some more or less
characteristic features of their situation. They are predominantly owner
farmers furnishing a negligible number of tenants and working as laborers
only on a farm owned by some member of the family. It is by liberal use
of their unpaid family labor that they gain initial success. They improve
their original holdings or eventually acquire land more valuable than the
average of that owned by native farmers. The few farm management
surveys which have been conducted indicate that they succeed about as
well as native farmers and that where they have been established for a
long period they tend to surpass the natives. Thus the shrinkage in their
number is due far more to deaths than to failures.21
Negro Farmers. — Negroes as owners and tenants operate 30 percent
of the southern farms and perform a great part of the hired labor. The
Negro is therefore so closely identified with southern agriculture that
his racial status depends greatly upon sectional conditions. Of all the
depressed agricultural regions the south has been most severely deflated
because it has been so largely dependent on two money crops, cotton and
tobacco. Recurring sharp depressions have tended to undermine the
prosperity of the whole south, but especially of the old southeastern
cotton belt. The area of most profitable cotton production has shifted
20 Brunner, E. de S., Immigrant Farmers and Their Children, Garden City, New York,
1925, p. 25.
21 Ibid. p. 59.
[ 568 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
to the southwest which now produces 40 percent of the cotton while it
produced but 30 percent from 1920 to 1925.
From 1910 to 1925 there was a shrinkage of 25,000,000 acres in south-
ern farm land, most of this being in the states of Alabama, Mississippi,
Georgia and South Carolina.22 Since 1925 there has been a tendency to
bring back into cultivation some of this idle land in Alabama and Missis-
sippi, but the decline has continued in Georgia and South Carolina. In
many sections the richer lands dropped out of cultivation faster than the
poorer since the more fertile tracts were concentrated in large plantations
which were more seriously disorganized by the boll weevil and low prices
and were abandoned or taken over by foreclosure.23 Not only was much
land abandoned between 1920 and 1925 but there was a great sacrifice
of timber and domestic animals which were sold to make ends meet.
The difficulties inherent in southern agriculture which particularly
affect the Negro are the tenant system, the one crop system and the credit
system. In the old cotton states a relatively small proportion of the land
is operated by the owner with his own labor or with that of his family.
Tracts larger than those which can be farmed by one man are operated
by tenants who receive proportions of the crop varying with the propor-
tion of the capital supplied and the risk taken by the tenant. The cropper
or half share tenant who supplies nothing but his labor is at the bottom
of the economic ladder. The third and fourth share tenant who supplies
animals and sometimes equipment is next, the independent renter who
supplies everything and pays only a fixed rent to the landlord is next and
the owner is at the top.
Up to 1910 the Negroes had made steady progress in climbing this
tenant ladder. Starting immediately after the Civil War when all were
laborers, a cropper class soon emerged. More independent share tenants
then began to appear and next came independent renters and owners. By
1910 there were over 200,000 Negro farm owners. This number held
constant to 1920 and dropped off markedly in 1925. From 1925 to 1930
Negro farm ownership tended to increase in the states where cotton
production was revived (Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina and
Louisiana) and continued to decline in the states of stagnant cotton
production. Independent renters showed similar fluctuations, increasing in
proportion up to the year 1920 and then falling off sharply. This class is
particularly affected by depressions as their capital is swept away and
they are forced to move out altogether or drop back into the cropper class.
Thus each depression shows a falling off in ownership and renting and
an increase in the cropper class. Periods of prosperity, on the other hand,
22 See map in Chap. II.
23 Raper, Arthur, A Study of Two Black Belt Counties in Georgia, unpublished Univer-
sity of North Carolina dissertation.
[ 569 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
provide opportunities for regaining lost ground. Between 1920 and 1925
it was evident that the Negro farmer was losing an established status
in southern agriculture; after 1925 he regained some of the losses, but
whether this is a definite resumption of the trend toward progress in
agriculture will depend upon the trend of cotton production and the
ability of the Negro to break away from the one crop system.
Both tenancy and the credit structure have exerted pressure on the
Negro to force concentration on the money crops, cotton and tobacco, to
the neglect of the food and feed crops. The landlord wants cotton and
tobacco to secure his rent and the merchant or banker who is furnishing
the credit wants cash crops for security. As a result the concentration on
cotton and tobacco makes the southern farmer and especially the Negro
farmer subject to the depressions in these crops. Some improvements in
diversification have been made. In 1910 only 1.8 acres of food and feed
were planted in the south for each acre in cotton and tobacco, while in
1925 2.4 acres of feed and food were planted for each one of the money
crops. In 1920 in states heavily populated with Negroes only .8 of an acre
of food and feed were planted for each acre of cotton, indicating that the
Negroes were not seeking the advantages of diversification as rapidly as
the whites.
The third serious drawback in southern agriculture which especially
handicaps the Negro is the credit system. Dissipation of small savings by
frequent depressions leaves the tenant farmer dependent on credit to meet
current crop expenses. Rates for this credit are exorbitantly high, ranging
from 15 to 35 percent and drastically reducing profits.24 This crop
mortgage system is weak to begin with and its abuses make it even more
burdensome. With these handicaps the returns from farming are small.
The productivity per man of southern agriculture is only about half that
of other sections. After this small product has been divided between the
tenant, the landlord and the furnisher of credit, the shares are inadequate
to support a good standard of living. Studies of Negro farm incomes in
several sections show averages around $400 per year, with many falling
below this figure. As long as such a condition exists, the desertion of
southern farms for city jobs will doubtless continue.
Indian Farmers. — A recent survey of the Indians revealed that 81
percent were farmers or ranchers of a sort and that the principal source
of income for the Indian is the land. However, the production of these
farmers forms a negligible proportion of the nation's output and provides
only a limited diet and income. Of the 71 million acres in reservations
only 3 million were shown by the United States census of 1920 to be in
24 North Carolina Department of Agriculture, F. R. Yoder et al., Farm Credit in North
Carolina, 1927; North Carolina Agriculture Experiment Station, D. L. Wickens and G. W.
Forster, Farm Credit in North Carolina, Its Cost, Risk and Management, 1930, Bulletin no.
270.
[ 570 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
farms operated by Indians, the balance being leased to others or reserved
for lumbering. Indian lands are poor to begin with and their utilization
is below standard. This condition is reflected in income. It is difficult to
understand how more than a quarter of the Indians live on an annual
income of less than $100 and three-fourths on less than $200. A recent
survey of Indian jurisdictions showed a median per capita property value
of $1,950 and a median per capita annual income of $66.
Two trends have been manifest in regard to the holding of Indian
lands. One has been the allotment of lands to individuals rather than to
tribes without the right to alienate the title. The allotted land on reserva-
tions rose from 31 million acres in 1911 to 39 million in 1929. Early in
1920 there was also an increase in the grants of fee patents to Indians,
giving them full control of their lands. This practice, however, is not now so
prevalent as it was ten years ago. In an effort to throw some light on this
question, Meriam26 gathered information on about 24,000 Indians who
had received fee patents indicating that only about one-fifth had retained
any portion of their property. This, of course, does not mean that they
may not be doing well in some other capacity. Such inquiry needs further
elaboration.
Among the difficulties described as holding back Indian farmers and
ranchers are: a low standard of living, due principally to difference in
culture levels; an attitude that the government owes them a living and
consequently too great dependence upon unearned income; the lack of
fertility of many tracts of land; a lack of adequate agricultural education;
complications arising from tribal ownership and from faulty systems of
individual allotment; care free camp life with frequent wanderings
militating against the regular care of animals; a lack of well grounded
programs for the agriculture of each jurisdiction; the great diversity of
regions occupied multiplying the problems in some sections; difficulties
with irrigation in some sections; lack of local agricultural leaders; and a
lack of adequate working capital.
All who are interested in the processes by which the Indian is to
absorb the surrounding culture and become an independent citizen
emphasize the strategic position of agriculture in the process. Recent steps
of the Indian Bureau to improve agriculture have included surveys and
formulation of five-year programs for each region, the appointment of a
director of extension, a supervisor of livestock, eight agricultural exten-
sion agents and seven home demonstration agents.
Races in the West and the Southwest. — The pressure for the labor of
outsiders in the west springs from the basic agricultural situation. In this
section agriculture is expanding more rapidly and is more intensive than
26 Meriam, Louis, and associates, The Problem of Indian Administration, Institute of
Government Research, Baltimore, 1928.
[ 571 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
in other major regions of the United States. Irrigation, clearing of new
land and change from grazing to crops have extended and intensified
farming. An additional demand for labor is created by the seasonal nature
of certain crops such as beets, vegetables, citrus fruits, berries and grapes
all requiring extra labor for cultivation and harvesting. To supply these
needs the west has constantly attracted outside labor. The native
Mexicans were supplemented by migrants; Chinese and Japanese were
first drawn in, and recently Filipinos, a few Hindus, Negroes, Hawaiians
and Koreans.
However, the tendency to deprecate the newcomers as members of the
community is as fixed as the tendency to seek their labor. Hence the
Chinese had no sooner become a significant group in the population than
further accessions were stopped. As a result the few Chinese rapidly passed
from agriculture to the city. The Japanese, sought as laborers when the
Chinese were excluded, were also shut out by the Gentlemen's Agreement
and have since been barred from land leasing and ownership by anti-alien
land laws. Yet the Japanese farmers, like Europeans, are usually ambi-
tious to own land and are not content to remain laborers. Fresh accessions
to the Mexican population have been welcomed, as the Mexicans have
not begun to purchase lands, but have continued as laborers.
The importance of the Japanese in California agriculture before the
passage of anti-alien land laws is indicated by the estimate that in 1920
they raised about 90 percent of the asparagus and almost half the green
vegetables and sugar beets and made substantial contributions to the
fruit and berry crops. Later estimates indicate that the land laws, although
they are not rigidly enforced, have caused a 25 percent loss in land leased
by Japanese farmers as against an increase of two-thirds in the area
operated by them on share.
In enumerating the harmful effects of these laws, Mears26 lists the
following:
(1) The employer can never be sure of securing this labor supply, yet (2)
he is uncertain of getting satisfactory help elsewhere; (3) the bank is unwilling
to loan money when farming becomes so speculative; (4) the Oriental who
connives with landowner or tenant is uneasy about holding his position; (5) he
can recover no damages if the contract is broken; (6) co-operative marketing
associations for handling fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, with all or mostly
Japanese membership, have been compelled to disband because ineligible aliens
have no title to the crop; (7) these acts are economically unsound, morally
questionable, and internationally unfortunate; and (8) their lax enforcement
sets a bad example both to Americans and Asiatics, especially serious in the case
of the younger generation.27
26 Mears, E. G., Resident Orientals on the American Pacific Coast, Their Legal and Eco-
nomic Status, University of Chicago, 1928, p. 261.
27 Mears, after careful study, concludes that there is a growing disinclination to enforce
these laws, op. cit.t p. 253,
r 572 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
The chief positive results stated are the discouraging of prospective
Oriental settlers and the detering of the second generation from utilization
of rural property.
Like the Negro in the southeast the Mexicans occupy a unique posi-
tion in Texas and New Mexico. They monopolize the culture of cotton and
of truck and citrus fruits in the newer areas and they have been partially
substituted for European foreign labor in the beet fields. On the other
hand, along the Pacific coast the Mexican is in competition with all other
ethnic groups.
The preferences of employers for labor are to some degree indicated by
the extent to which they use the various types, as shown in the report of
the Governor's Fact Finding Committee:28
Employing Mexicans 814 operators
Employing Japanese 247 operators
Employing Filipinos 194 operators
Employing Chinese 52 operators
Employing East Indians 48 operators
Employing Negroes 35 operators
Employing Porto Ricans 18 operators
In the non-competitive areas Mexican wages are low, comparing with
the Negro farm wages in the southeast which are the lowest in the country.
Competition brings better wages in Colorado and on the Pacific coast but
TABLE 6. — DIFFERENTIAL WAGE SCALES OF RACIAL GROUPS IN CALIFORNIA, 1930a
Average wage scale
Per day
Per hour
Tntnl
Number
TM K
TM K
Comparison of —
xotai
number
reporting
reporting
reporting
These columns correspond
of reports
scale
higher for —
higher for —
to groups as listed in first
vertical column
Dollars
Cents
Whites and Mexicans
233
53
Whites, 129
Mexicans, 51
3.60
3.46
38.8
37.2
Whites and Filipinos
59
29
Whites, 30
Filipinos, 0
3.70
3.47
37.5
36.2
Whites and Chinese
13
9
Whites, 4
Chinese, 0
3.56
3.43
38.3
36.7
Whites and Japanese
66
40
Whites, 14
Japanese, 12
3.70
3.76
39.0
38.9
Whites and Negroes
16
10
Whites, 5
Negroes, 1
3.69
3.48
40.0
37.5
Mexicans and Filipinos. . .
58
47
Mexicans, 4
Filipinos, 7
3.43
3.44
36.5
36.4
Mexicans and Chinese. . . .
12
11
Mexicans, 0
Chinese, 1
3.40
3.48
36.6
36.6
Mexicans and Japanese. . .
70
30
Mexicans, 7
Japanese, 33
3.43
3.73
35.7
39.1
Mexicans and Negroes. . . .
14
7
Mexicans, 3
Negroes, 4
3.58
3.54
37.7
37.7
Filipinos and Japanese
35
26
Filipinos, 1
Japanese, 8
3.43
3.58
36.9
37.3
Chinese and Japanese. . . .
12
9
Chinese, 0
Japanese, 3
3.44
3.50
36.2
37.6
Total
588
271
197
120
0 Mexicans in California, op, cit.
28 California Departments of Industrial Relations, Agriculture and Public Welfare,
Mexicans in California, Report of Governor C. C. Young's Mexican Fact Finding Com-
mittee, San Francisco, October, 1930.
[ 573 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
not as high a wage as is given to native labor. The relative wage scale of
employers hiring two or more groups is a better index. Table 6 indicates
that the wage differentials where any are in force favor the whites and
Japanese first, the Chinese next, the Mexicans and Filipinos next with the
Negroes slightly behind these two. The opinions of employers as to the
output of these workers in comparison to white workers are recorded in
Table 7.
The Mexican population of south and west Texas is, in a sense, a
barrier to the westward spread of Negroes. However, permanent restric-
tion of Mexican immigration would probably mean that some of the
surplus agricultural labor of the southeast would spread westward
instead of concentrating entirely in the cities of the east and middle west.
The stoppage of European immigration has meant the entrance of
Mexicans into new employment, notably the cultivation of the sugar beet
fields. The Governor's Fact Finding Committee points out that of the
aliens designating California as their destination, Mexicans have increased
from 14.8 percent in 1919-1921 to 41.3 percent in 1925-1928. The Mexi-
cans are favored by the operation of the alien land laws of the states on
the Pacific coast.
Industry. — Alien labor has always been much in demand for the hot,
arduous and monotonous jobs in industry. Up to the outbreak of the
World War these jobs were largely monopolized by the aliens most
recently arrived frotn Europe. Many of the older immigrants and the
native born had worked up into semi-skilled, skilled and office positions.
Since 1914 the Negroes have partially replaced the foreign born, accelerat-
ing the rise of the more able foreign born workers. Still more recently the
Mexicans, for a long time a vital part of the construction and maintenance
TABLE 7. — OUTPUT OF WORKERS OF RACIAL GROUPS COMPARED WITH WHITES'*
Racial groups
Number of
replies
Output compared with white laborers
Same
More
Less
Mexicans
576
50
181
100
244
69
258
16
60
30
71
29
151
8
56
31
145
7
167
26
65
39
28
33
Chinese6
Japanese
Negroes
Total
1,220
464
398
358
0 Mexicans in California, op. cit.
* Opinion concerning the Filipino output per day is about equally divided as between "
'less"; and likewise for the Chinese.
[ 574 1
," "more," and
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
labor force of the railways, have been drawn into heavy industry, and the
abler Negroes are beginning to rise into the skilled and semi-skilled jobs.
Orientals in Industry. — The Oriental groups are not competitors in
heavy industries, except the Japanese who have penetrated to some extent
into the lumber camps and mills of the west. For the most part, however,
they are confined to domestic service and trade, with a scattering few in
special employments such as fish canning, laundries and the building
trades. Table 8 gives the distribution of Chinese and Japanese gainfully
employed in 1920.
TABLE 8. — NON-AGRICULTURAL OCCUPATIONS OF ORIENTALS, 1920
Description of group
Chinese
Japanese
Description of group
Chinese
Japanese
Manufacturing and mechanical
industries
4,256
6,946
Domestic and personal service
Professions
26,450
462
12,723
1,295
Laborers
2,319
3,753
Trade
8,270
5,750
Semi-skilled
310
578
Fishermen
24
1,081
Machinists and mechanics. .
54
47
315
191
1,526
2,109
The Filipinos who are not agricultural workers are predominantly in
domestic service, with a few in common labor and the fish canneries.
Mexicans in Industry. — For a long time Mexicans have been an
important source of labor for the railroads of the southwest and recently
their employment in this capacity has extended up to Chicago. The
percentages of foreign born railway laborers (mostly Mexicans) in Texas,
Arizona and New Mexico are given in Table 9. The table indicates a
TABLE 9. — PERCENTAGE OF FOREIGN BORN IN THE TOTAL OF STEAM RAILROAD EMPLOYEES,
1900-1920°
Percentage of foreign born
Texas
Arizona
New Mexico
1900
14.7
47.5
15.1
1910
25 8
78 3
37 8
1920
48 0
81 0
32 6
0 Report of Alfred Thorn, op. cit.
marked increase in the Mexicans employed in this capacity between 1910
and 1920. In 1920 Alfred Thorn, general counsel for the Association of
Railway Executives, reported that on railroads running west and south of
Chicago, 26,783 out of a total of 48,632 section laborers normally em-
ployed were Mexicans and 14,593 out of 16,757 of the extra gang laborers,
f 575 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
i.e., over 50 percent of the normal force of laborers and 87 percent of the
extras were Mexicans.
In 1928 the questionnaire circulated by the Governor's Fact Finding
Committee29 revealed the following percentage of plants in California
employing Mexican labor:
Percent
Group of industries employing Mexicans
Stone, clay and glass 80 . 9
Metals, machinery and conveyance 45 . 8
Wood manufacture 46 . 7
Leather and rubber 38 . 9
Printing and paper 20 . 2
Chemicals and paints 56.7
Textiles 57 . 9
Clothing, millinery and laundry 42 . 6
Foods, beverages and tobacco 43 . 1
Water, light and power 100 . 0
Miscellaneous 42 . 9
Total 45 .0
The entry of Mexicans into the heavy industries of the middle west is
more recent. A scattering few were reported in industrial centers by the
census of 1920 but now there are sizeable colonies in the middle west and
as far east as Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, where about 1,000 worked in 1923
and where a more or less stable colony of 400 is located now. The census
of 1930 shows large colonies of Mexicans in Chicago, Gary and Detroit.
They are mostly employed in the same industries entered by the Negro in
1916-1917, namely, steel, meat packing and automobile manufacture.
Taylor30 shows that in selected meat packing houses the Mexicans
increased from 2,181 or 22 percent of the total in 1923 to 3,963 or 42.9
percent in 1928, and in 15 selected industrial plants Mexican employees
increased from 16 in 1916 to 7,050 in 1928. Thus the Mexican begins the
cycle at the same place but a few years later than the Negro.
The Negro in Industry. — Nearly five million Negroes are living in cities
and the past two censuses have shown large relative losses in the number
employed in agriculture. The general tendency has been for the proportion
of all colored people gainfully employed to decrease. This decrease has
occurred largely through the tendency of young Negroes to remain longer
in school and for married women to work less outside the home. The
shrinkage has, therefore, occurred largely in agriculture and domestic
service.
29 Mexicans in California, op. cit.
30 Taylor, Paul S., "Employment of Mexicans in the Chicago and the Calumet Region,"
Journal American Statistical Association, June, 1930, vol. XXV, New Series, no. 170, pp.
206-207.
[ 576 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
Negro Women in Industry.™ — While a larger proportion of Negro
women now remain at home as housekeepers, many have entered factories
as unskilled workers. The tobacco industry employs the largest number,
although the manufactories of clothing and food also offer some employ-
ment. The women started as unskilled workers but they are gradually
rising into semi-skilled and skilled positions. The number of Negro
waitresses has doubled in the decade and the number of school teachers
and trained nurses is increasing. The development of Negro business
enterprises has opened up clerical and semi-professional work for Negro
women. The following is a list of some of the new fields which Negro
women were entering in 1920:
Occupation Number
Elevator tenders 3,073
Attendants, professional service 1,235
Semi-professional 1,323
Semi-skilled:
Clothing 7,623
Food industries 4,632
Other industries 8,012
Retail dealers 3,136
Clerks in stores 2,334
Saleswomen 2,344
Clerical 8,301
Laborers:
Iron and steel 1,123
Furniture factories 3,122
Cotton mills 2,634
Other industries 5,701
General laborers 6,968
Food industries 3,092
Transportation 2,176
The South. — Southern cities have jobs which, until recently, have been
by tradition wholly or largely monopolized by Negroes. The past fifty
years, however, have witnessed a gradual incursion of whites into these
jobs and a consequent shifting of Negro employment. Several outstand-
ing examples of the displacement of Negro by white workers may be
given. In restaurants serving white patrons the owners are now usually
white rather then Negro as was common in earlier years. Similarly,
Negro men waiters have been partially displaced by white men or by
white or Negro girls. White patrons have almost entirely abandoned
colored barber shops. Negroes monopolized the building trades up to and
immediately after the Civil War but white workmen now get the choicest
jobs and Negro carpenters, masons and plasterers are steadily declining
in number. As a final example, there is the recent but persistent pressure
for the replacement of Negro locomotive firemen by white men.
31 Compare with general discussion of occupations of women in the United States
in Chap. XIV.
[ 577 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Back of this pressure of white workers for Negro jobs is the steady
increase in the white rural population of the south. Reared in a territory
which is unable adequately to support the present population these
people seek city jobs and are willing to take the more menial positions
rather than be idle or remain on the farm. In compensation for these
losses new jobs have been opened to the Negroes, such as those in the
lumbering and the tobacco industry, garages and filling stations.
The North. — The use of Negro labor in machine industries during the
war was looked on as a necessary experiment; it gave the Negro a foot-
hold in many of the heavy industries, principally metal working, auto
manufacturing and meat packing. Negro employment was resumed in
the same plants after the 1920 depression and increased up to 1929, indi-
cating that the use of this labor had passed beyond the experimental stage.
Most of the Negroes who lost employment during the slump of 1920
remained in northern cities or returned to them after a short stay in the
south, for the Negro sections continued to expand and by 1930 all cities
showed considerable increases in Negro population. Yet it seems to have
taken the Negro until about 1930 to regain the place which he held in
1920. This is indicated by a state wide survey in Pennsylvania32 and by
the replies to a questionnaire circulated by the author. The volume of
Negro employment in the plants making complete questionnaire reports
was as follows: 1920, 37,500; 1925, 39,800; 1928, 39,200; and 1929,
40,000.33 (See Table 10.)
It is also evident from a number of surveys34 that the Negro has
proved to be about as satisfactory in industrial labor as any other group
which these industries have been able to secure. These show that 64 per-
cent of the employers reported the turn-over among Negro unskilled
labor as the same or less than that of whites and only 36 percent reported
it as greater. Considerable evidence has also been gathered concerning
the reliability and efficiency of laborers which gives about the same
result. Several investigators have reported that the opinions and atti-
tudes of the officials controlling the labor policies of plants are strong
factors in the success or failure of Negroes working under these policies.
There is also a wide diversity of opinion about Negro labor among manu-
facturers who have never tried it. In one city employers will say that it
is impossible to use Negroes on certain jobs and in a nearby city they
will be found working on those jobs.
Before 1920 Negroes in industry were largely confined to unskilled
jobs with a scattering few engaged in semi-skilled work and a very few
32 Department of Welfare, Negro Survey of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, 1930, p. 14 f .
33 The 1929 reports were evidently rendered as of a time before the depression com-
menced.
34 Chicago Commission on Race Relations, The Negro in Chicago, University of Chicago,
1922; and unpublished studies of the National Urban League (New York).
[ 578 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
in skilled operations. Investigations conducted in 1928 and 1929 indicate
that they have gained ground slightly in this respect. At that time 17
percent of the plants used Negroes only as janitors, porters, furnace
tenders, etc. Eighty-three percent employed them in plant operation.
Of these 44 percent employed only unskilled workers, 23 percent semi-
skilled and 33 percent skilled. Some plants employed Negroes as foremen
and clerks. The industrial surveys previously cited disclose the fact that
TABLE 10. — NEGROES EMPLOYED IN SIXTEEN INDUSTRIES. 1920-1929°
Industries
Total Negroes employed
1920
1925
1928
1929
Metal working
12,638
492
10,766
341
116
230
1,651
1,739
854
1,540
1,475
200
2,151
134
2,907
322
14,216
572
10,054
595
215
566
1,592
2,192
989
2,086
143
350
2,412
152
3,212
418
13,711
471
8,462
693
229
1,081
1,653
1,918
1,124
2,623
433
236
2,634
171
3,166
366
14,549
379
8,612
987
252
756
1,668
1,702
1,209
2,598
494
817
2,983
178
3,166
305
Automobile manufacturing
Packing houses
Other food products
Tanneries. ...
Clothing and power machine
Chemical manufacturing
Other manufacturing
Laundries, dry cleaning
Hotels, hospitals
Trade
Garages
Construction
Other non-manufacturing
Transportation
Mining
Middle west
East
Total
31,645
5,911
33,299
6,365
32,603
6,608
33,224
6,831
37,556
39,764
39,211
40,055
0 From a questionnaire circulated by the author in 1930, sent to all firms outside the south known to employ
a considerable number of Negroes.
many Negroes have won positions of trust in the large industrial centers,
such as head of pipe department, drawers of copper wire, locomotive
engineers, etc. It is to this phase of industrial opportunity that the Negro
and those interested in him need to give the closest attention. Without
the chance to advance in industry the Negro common laborer has no
incentive to become an ambitious workman.
A recent nationwide survey of business owned by Negro proprietors
showed a rapid expansion in the number of these concerns.35 When the
business is owned by a Negro, there is, of course, no problem as to the
36 Report of the Survey of Negro Business, conducted by the National Negro Business
League, Tuskegee Institute, in 1928, covering 2,817 enterprises in 33 cities. (Mimeographed,
not published.)
f 579 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
subordinate jobs, but with the growth of Negro neighborhoods there has
also been a rapid expansion of neighborhood stores, theatres, real estate
offices, branch banks and drug stores owned by white persons but serving
Negroes. The chain stores have set up numbers of branches in Negro
communities. Until recently most of the business owned by white persons
have employed white personnel. An increasing number of young Negroes
who are graduates of commercial high schools have cast their eyes on
these positions and a few have secured them. Aggressive campaigns, to
some extent successful, have been waged in cities to secure employment
for Negro clerks in business concerns which serve Negroes. The difficulty
in many instances is that the patronage of the stores is mixed, and the
proprietor sometimes has to choose between offending his white or his
colored customers.
The results of a campaign of this sort in Chicago have been outstand-
ing. A chain of drug stores, several chain groceries, several chain depart-
ment stores and a number of small businesses have taken on colored
help. In New York the movement has not proceeded so far.
The expansion in municipal employment both in large and in small
cities of the north is noticeable. The following is quoted from a survey
of New York City:36 "One of the most marked increases in the employ-
ment of Negroes has been in the field of municipal service. Data published
in 1929 revealed that there were approximately 1,644 Negro employees
on the city payroll."
An obstacle to the Negro in industry is his relationship to the trade
union movement. In general it may be said that difficulty in entering a
union has driven a large proportion of Negroes into open shop jobs. Some-
times jobs from which the union excluded the Negro have been entered
by him during a strike of the white unionized workers. The American
Federation of Labor in its resolutions favors no racial discrimination and
recommends the organization of Negroes, but the final decision on this
point rests in the hands of the international and local unions. There are
twenty-four international unions which exclude Negroes by constitutional
provision.
Another serious handicap of the Negro worker is inadequate industrial
training. One of the reasons why the Negro building tradesmen are
losing ground in the south is the fact that they are not as well trained
as they were in the previous generation. This factor will be more fully
discussed in the section on Negro education.
In a time of depression the Negro is also especially handicapped by
unemployment. Surveys both of 1920 and 1929 show that there was a
very large percentage of unemployed Negroes. This is due in part to
36 Unpublished report by the National Urban League on the Negro in industry in
New York.
[ 580 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
discrimination and in part to the fact that the Negro being the last
man hired is the first laid off.37
The European foreigner and the Negro seem to be improving their
industrial status in spite of difficulties; the Mexicans show signs of
beginning the cycle in the heavy industry where their predecessors began;
while the Indians are so small in number that they are a negligible factor.
With the Orientals the vocational problem of the second generation
seems to be most acute. In business they are not legally restricted but
prejudice limits their clientele; in the professions they are under obvious
handicaps for as lawyers, as doctors and dentists, their service is confined
almost entirely to members of their own race. Few positions in office work
or the skilled trades are open to them. Though many have taken advan-
tage of the excellent educational opportunities of the Pacific states, their
problem of finding a vocation is very difficult. By their American nativity
and education they have lost touch with the land of their parents, by
their color they are debarred from many contacts in the land of their
birth. Second only to the problem of the children of Oriental immigrants
is the vocational handicap of the Negro in the south. Here political dis-
franchisement leaves him open to forms of exploitation which could in
some measure be combatted with the ballot. This is evident in sporadic
attempts of white groups, such as barbers, to drive Negroes out by munic-
ipal ordinance, the licensing of electricians, plumbers and other skilled
tradesmen and the barring of Negroes from public employment on such
work as construction, street cleaning and garbage removal. Aside from
the specific difficulties which confront each ethnic group in its effort to
work for a living, there are others which apply more or less to all groups
varying in degree largely with the length of the time of their contact with
industry.
Feldman summarizes these difficulties:38 (1) Most of these groups
have to live down a tradition of disparagement. (2) Regardless of skill
most of them have to begin at the bottom. For instance in the northward
migration of Negroes many who were skilled as carpenters, masons or
even mechanics, began in common labor in the north. (3) Even on this
lower level there is sometimes friction, particularly in periods of unem-
ployment or strike, between the newcomer and those who have not risen
far. When there is prosperity, industrial peace and plenty of work for
all, the newcomers are welcomed for their willingness to take the undesir-
able jobs and release the older employees for higher positions. In slack
times, however, undesirable jobs are taken in preference to unemploy-
37 Survey of Unemployment in Philadelphia, Philadelphia Board of Public Education;
Survey of unemployment in Dayton (unpublished) ; Surveys of the National Urban League
(unpublished).
38 Feldman, Herman, Racial Factors in American Industry, New York and London,
1931, pp. 134-179.
[ 581 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ment and friction ensues. Similarly when Negroes or immigrants are
used as strike breakers, racial and industrial antagonism reinforce each
other. There is also friction when the newcomers begin to acquire experi-
ence and rise in the scale. (4) In the south effective "dead lines " as to
the limits of Negro work are set by tradition and to a lesser degree this
applies to other groups. Attempts have been made to give statutory
force to such restrictions as in the Arizona law forbidding employers of
more than five persons to have less then 80 percent of their employees
citizens. This and other such statutory attempts are usually thrown out
by the courts because they violate the fourteenth amendment, but maxi-
mum levels beyond which only the exceptional non-native white worker
may rise are not rare in industrial plants. By limiting their membership
to white citizens, unions also constitute an effective barrier to entrance
into the occupations which they control. Where the alien groups are not
actually debarred they may be given the less desirable or the poorer paid
jobs in the trade. (5) Non-native white groups have to overcome an
amazing diversity of opinion among employment managers and execu-
tives as to their traits and abilities. Feldman states that manufacturers
who are ordinarily very careful of the grades of raw material used in
their product, rely upon hearsay and rumor as to the grades of the labor
hired.
These are real handicaps to a man who desires to rise in the industrial
scale and if they were emphasized it would be possible to paint a gloomy
picture. On the other hand if attention is focused on the progress actually
made it is apparent that industry is able eventually to fit some members
of all the diverse groups into higher positions of skill.
III. SOCIAL PROBLEMS
As non-white and new immigrant groups are usually on a low economic
level and are socially less adjusted to American community activities,
the impression has become widespread that these groups are racially
predisposed to crime, poverty, delinquency or ill health. In other words
racial and social problems have become confused.
Recent studies, however, have emphasized the factors of economic
and community adjustment and educational level so strongly that doubt
as to the importance of the racial factor has arisen. For instance, it was
widely asserted that the foreign born accounted for the major crime
problems of our metropolitan communities with an implication that this
group was predisposed to crime. Examination of the Wickersham report
will convince the reader that when the rates are adjusted for age, sex
and economic condition, the aliens are a little less criminally disposed
than the natives. Similar adverse impressions as to Negro criminality
have prevailed, but the studies in this field are as yet insufficient to
[ 582 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
warrant any assumption of racial predisposition to crime, especially
when it is remembered that the Negro is more likely to be arrested "on
suspicion" or slight evidence.
A notable advance in the social adjustment of the diverse ethnic
groups has been the increasing tendency of organizations to employ
workers of various ethnic origins to deal with their own people. Asso-
ciated charities and probation agencies in cities have long employed
members of various nationalities, and recently the principle has been
extended to Negro work. The first Negro probation officer in the south
was employed in 1913 and many cities now have these workers. Negro
public health nurses and case workers in relief organizations date from
somewhat earlier and these have also increased to a marked degree. The
development of such trained leadership among the Indians has not pro-
ceeded as fast as it has among the foreign born and the Negroes.
Increased poverty and to some extent increases in crime accompanied
the northward migration of the Negroes.39 It has been pointed out that
the movement disrupted families and unbalanced the sex and age dis-
tribution. In two recent studies of the rural south it was found that a
third of the Negro families still remaining were being supported by aged
widows, the aunts or grandmothers of the children of the household.
Many of these families were living at a level which in the city would have
demanded relief but which in the country amounted merely to distressing
poverty. The converse of this picture is the excess of young vigorous
persons in the cities who swell the number of delinquents beyond the
normal proportion. These conditions tend to disappear as the proportion
of migrants in the population becomes smaller. On the other hand, among
the migrants to cities many are able to better their standard of living,
though some, through maladjustment, increase the case load of welfare
organizations.
IV. HEALTH
Death Rates. — All non-native white groups have, in different degrees,
the same basic health problems. They are in an environment more or
less alien; they are relatively ignorant and low in the economic scale.
These factors combine to cause high death rates from the diseases as-
sociated with ignorance and poverty. So high are these rates in fact that
the uninformed have assumed a racial predisposition to these diseases.
General Death Rates.*0 — The Negro death rates are almost half again
as high as the white. They have shown some improvement in the past
89 On the crime rates of Negroes, see Chap. XXII. See also Preliminary Reports, XXI
of President's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership.
40 For additional material on Negro death rates and for material on death rates of
foreign born groups, see Chap. XII.
[ 583 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
twenty years, but the discrepancy between the races has remained about
the same. The expectancy of life of Negro male industrial policy holders
of insurance companies has increased from 32.5 years in 1900 to 44.2
years in 1927, an increase of more than eleven years in the life span. The
life expectancy of Negroes, however, is still ten years less for Negro males
and twelve years less for females than for white persons. Negro death
rates are higher in the city than in the country and hence higher in the
north than in the south, but the rate for southern cities is higher than that
for northern cities.
Indian death rates are unreliable both because of inaccuracies in the
estimation of the population and because of deficiencies in reporting
deaths, but surveys made in 1925 indicated that death rates on reserva-
tions were more than double those of the states in which the reservations
were located.
There is even less information on Mexican deaths and a less stable
population upon which to base rates but such information as is available
indicates a very high mortality.
Tuberculosis. — All of these groups suffer most from tuberculosis.
The available evidence indicates that the color groups were free from this
disease before contact with the whites but once exposed they are relatively
more susceptible owing to ignorance, unfavorable environment and low
scale of living. In 1910 one-fifth of the Negro mortality was accounted for
by tuberculosis; in 1928 about one-tenth. Among the policy holders of the
Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, Negro deaths (male) declined 44
percent as against a 62 percent decline for white males. This disease
seemingly accounts for seven times as large a proportion of the Indian
deaths as of the general deaths.
Infant Mortality. — All the groups under discussion have high infant
mortality rates owing to unsanitary living conditions and ignorance of
proper diet. Infant mortality eliminates from ten to fifteen percent of
the Negro babies during their first year. Indian and Mexican rates are
even higher. The Negro infant mortality rate has declined very rapidly in
northern cities as a result of vigorous public health measures but it
remains more than a hundred and fifty percent of the white rate. In the
southern states there has also been a noticeable but less rapid decline.
Venereal Disease is also known to be more prevalent among these
groups than in the white population but scattered studies seem to indicate
that when similar social classes are compared the discrepancy is not so
great. Accurate trends in mortality from venereal disease are not
available.
Special Diseases. — While the foregoing categories are common to all
groups, each group has certain peculiar health conditions. Negroes,
moving from the fresh air and sunshine of the rural south to crowded
[ 584 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
cities, suffer heavily from pneumonia, this disease in some years account-
ing for as many deaths as tuberculosis. In the rural south malaria takes a
high toll and typhoid has not been completely eliminated. However, in
recent years there has been a marked decline in the malaria rate. Indians
are especially subject to trachoma and it has been estimated that from 2
to 20 percent suffer from this complaint. The Indians of the southwest
are also affected by addiction to peyote, a habit forming drug.
Hospitalization. — Data are not at hand to determine trends in Negro
hospitalization but some facts as to the present situation will indicate
future needs. Recent figures show that the Negroes of North Carolina
(one of the best of the southern states) have only one-half the number of
hospital beds per thousand persons as the whites, and seven times as
many persons per doctor. In South Carolina the number of hospital beds
for the colored is less than a third the number for whites and there are
eighteen times as many persons per doctor.
The chief difficulty in the south arises from the fact that few Negro
internes and doctors have opportunities for hospital practice. The 100
Negro graduates each year have only ten hospitals approved by the
American Medical Association which are open for inter neship. Negro
practitioners are also at a disadvantage because the great majority of
hospitals in the south have a white staff and patients brought in must be
attended by that staff. Some of the larger hospitals have recently per-
mitted Negro physicians to serve on the staff of the Negro ward.
The increased appropriations for Indian health are resulting in
better hospital facilities. The appropriation for Indian health services
which was $90,000 in 1913 was more than 3 million in 1931. In this time
the hospital bed capacity has almost trebled, the number of physicians
increased and the number of nurses trebled. The Indian public health
nurse appeared first in 1925 and 79 were employed in 1931. The Meriam
survey reported only 43 percent of the hospital beds occupied because
the Indian is suspicious of hospitals. This fear has been overcome to some
extent by public health education as the Indian office reports a continually
increasing number who apply for hospital treatment.
V. EDUCATION
The United States places upon education the chief reliance for
the eventual assimilation of the various ethnic groups. In the case of the
foreign born, however, only the second generation is reached through the
conventional educational system and in recent years this has led to
the establishment of special night schools and adult educational move-
ments for the instruction of the foreign born.
During the war a considerable pressure toward Americanization was
applied by various agencies, This movement was rather hurriedly con-
[ 585 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ceived and has given way to more mature programs of instruction for
the non-English speaking immigrant and as "Adult Education" has
gained widespread support. The decrease in the illiteracy of the foreign
born from 13.1 percent in 1920 to 9.9 in 1930 is partially ascribable to the
efficiency of such programs and partially to the enforcement of the
literacy test for immigrants. The small proportion of children of school
age among the foreign born does not constitute a problem for the public
schools. In 1930, 97.5 percent of the foreign born from 7 to 13 years of
age were in school as compared with 84.1 percent in 1920. (See Table 11.)
The native born of foreign parents do, however, constitute a large
TABLE 11. — PERCENTAGE OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, BY SEX AND AGE GROUPS, AND BY
COLOR AND NATIVITY FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1910-1930°
Population class and census year
Age and percent in school
7 to 13
years
14 and 15
years
16 and 17
years
18 to 20
years
All classes:
1930
95. 3
90.6
86.1
96.1
92.2
88.2
98.0
94.1
92.7
97.5
84.1
87.1
81.3
76.5
64.1
88.8
79.9
75.0
90.0
83.9
80.3
91.3
77.9
73.6
92.6
66.7
58.9
78.1
68.7
58.3
57.3
42.9
43.1
61.0
48.7
51.1
54.4
34.5
36.6
52.3
23.5
17.5
46.3
39.2
35.5
21.4
14.8
15.2
24.4
17.5
19.6
19.3
11.9
11.8
15.6
7.0
4.6
13.3
10.8
11.7
1920
1910
Native white of native parentage:
1930
1920
1910
Native white of mixed and foreign parentage:
1930 .
1920 . . .
1910 ...
Foreign born white:
1930
1920
1910
Negro:
1930
1920
1910
«U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1910, 1920 and 1930.
proportion of those attending school in certain cities. Of the native born
of foreign and mixed parentage a slightly higher proportion of the
children of elementary age (7 to 13) attend school than among the native
born of native parents. But in the optional attendance, ages 13 to 20,
the children of foreign parents drop out more rapidly than those of
native parents. There was a marked improvement in this respect between
1920 and 1930 as the attendance of the natives of foreign and mixed
parents increased from 75 to 91 percent in the 14 to 15 age group, from
36 to 61 percent in the 16 to 17 group, and from 12 to 19 percent in the
[ 586 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
18 to 20 age group. Part of this gain is ascribable to the difference in the
status of industry at the time of the two census enumerations. In 1920
the abnormally active demand for labor attracted many who would
otherwise have been in school. When the 1930 census was taken the
demand was slack.
The Negroes, who have the lowest attendance rate, also improved
markedly between 1910 and 1930 but there are still 250,000 Negroes
aged 7 to 13 who are not attending school and nearly a million from 5 to 20
who are not enrolled. There is in school a far higher percentage of colored
children from 7 to 13 years of age than is characteristic in the older groups.
Negro Education.41 — The task of providing school facilities for
Negroes has progressed at all levels as indicated by two preceding census
figures on the increase in attendance. The fact that a quarter of a million
Negro children of elementary school age are still out of school and that
three quarters of a million of the high school and college age group are
not enrolled, gives an idea of the extent of improvement still to be
desired. Since one of the causes is the inadequate number of schools, the
need is plainly indicated. There has also been marked improvement in the
quality of education offered to Negroes but here again much more progress
is necessary before the standards of Negro schools approximate those of
white schools. The data on the present status of Negro education indicate
a marked improvement when compared with those of former years, but
when contrasted with white educational standards they show the in-
adequacy of the Negro schools.
The south has greatly advanced Negro education in its separate
public schools. The expenditure per Negro child of school age had ad-
vanced in the 15 years up to 1928 from $2.01 to $8.86,42 with increases in
teachers' salaries and corresponding increases in the quality of teaching.
There has also been a progressive absorption by the public schools of
elementary pupils formerly taught in private schools. Many of the
privately supported institutions have discontinued their elementary
work and are concentrating on secondary and collegiate courses. The
Negro public school term has been lengthened from an average of 120
days per year in 1919 to 131 days in 1928 but is still 49 days short of the
full nine months.
Much constructive work in Negro education has been accomplished
by the General Education Board through direct appropriations to Negro
schools but more through subsidizing a state supervisor of Negro schools
in each of the southern states. The supervisors stimulate interest in
41 Compare with educational trends for the entire United States discussed in
Chap. VII.
42 Average for 6 southern states per capita expended for salaries in public schools per
child 6 to 14 years of age. Age figures from the census. Expenditures from state school
reports.
[ 587 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Negro education, advise in its extension in the counties and administer
such outside aid as may be contributed by the various foundations
interested in Negro education. Another outstanding improvement in
Negro schools has come from the Rosenwald Fund, under the patronage
of which over 5,000 new rural schools have been erected since 1913 in
accordance with modern specifications. Approximately one-sixth of the
cost was borne by the fund, one-fifth by subscriptions from Negroes and
the rest by public authorities and white citizens. The work of the Jeanes
Fund in providing visiting teachers who supervise Negro schools in
southern communities has also progressed rapidly.
When the quality of education offered by the Negro schools of the
south is compared with that of the white schools the extent of the dis-
crepancy in facilities is still marked. The expenditure of $8.86 for each
Negro child of school age is only about one-fourth of that for the white
child. In some districts the Negroes do not even receive for their schools
the amount which they have paid in school taxes. The school term
averages thirty days less than that for the whites, and the average salary
paid white teachers is from two to two and a half times the salary of
Negro teachers which in some states is still as low as $300 per year.
The transportation of pupils to consolidated schools which has progressed
so rapidly in white districts has been extended to a negligible number of
colored districts. In five southern states from which information is
available there were over 350 thousand white pupils transported and less
than 2,000 Negro pupils.
These deficiencies in the educational opportunities lead to retardation
and failure to complete the work in the grades. Statistics on Negro pupils
entering the public schools of northern cities after having transferred
from four southern states indicate that more than 20 percent of the pupils
were retarded three or more years. From six other states 15 to 20 percent
of the pupils were thus retarded. In recent years there has been some
progress in holding pupils in school, but 62 percent of the Negro public
school enrollment is below the fourth grade. By every measure the prog-
ress made by Negro education has been rapid but not sufficiently rapid
to catch up with the white schools. The Negro schools of today are about
what the white schools were a generation ago.
Northern Public Schools. — The shift of more than 20 percent of the
Negro children of school age to northern cities where they have the
advantages of the most progressive public school systems of the country
has resulted in a great improvement in educational opportunity for this
segment of the population and will, in the future, make a marked differ-
ence. The shift has brought the color problem to northern schools to a
more marked degree than ever before. Many cities now have public
schools where the proportion of Negro pupils runs from 30 to 100 per-
f 588 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
cent, creating new problems of administration and of instruction. Some
cities have established separate schools with Negro teachers, some have
set up mixed schools with no Negro teachers and some have created
mixed schools with mixed teaching forces. The retardation of the
migrants before leaving their native states has been one of the chief
problems underlying the pressure for segregation.
Higher Education. — The instruction in colleges, unlike elementary and
secondary instruction, is carried on largely in private institutions. Each
southern state has an agricultural and mechanical college for Negroes and
marked increases have been made in their appropriations but the great
majority of the college students are in independent and denominational
institutions. In 1913 there were 33 Negro institutions giving some college
courses and graduating a few pupils annually, but only 3 of these had
sufficient equipment and teaching force to be regarded as colleges. In 1932
nearly 20,000 Negroes were going to college and about 1,500 degrees were
granted. Of these some 2,000 students and 250 graduates were in the large
universities of the north and west. Many of the smaller Negro colleges are
still undermanned to such an extent that the teaching load is heavy and
the selection of electives is limited. Concentration on a few of the larger
institutions is beginning and some of the denominational boards have
reduced several of their small colleges to high schools thus increasing the
support available for the larger schools. The work of Fisk and Howard
Universities has been strengthened and important mergers of several
colleges in Atlanta and New Orleans give promise of two more university
centers. Hampton and Tuskegee have added college courses within the
past ten years. The education of Negro professional men has also
improved. Teaching and preaching absorb the large majority of Negro
college graduates, but the output of professional men has never filled the
demand. Medical and dental instruction has recently been strengthened
at Howard and Meharry Medical Colleges. In 1931 these two institutions
graduated 108 doctors, 23 dentists and 25 pharmacists. Professional
education has gradually changed the character of Negro leadership in
the past twenty years. Influence in the community has shifted from the
uneducated preachers to the educated preachers, the teachers and the
business men.
Vocational Education. — With the expansion of Hampton and Tuskegee
and a score of smaller schools, the Negro has been provided with
exceptional facilities for the vocational training of a selected few. But the
opportunities are not widespread because with few exceptions the southern
public school systems have not invested sufficient money in equipment
and trained teachers to make the work effective. Moreover, two factors
have conspired to make industrial courses unpopular with the Negro
youth. One is the meagerness of equipment mentioned above which has
[ 589 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
often robbed these courses of the dignity which would make them as
attractive as other courses; the other is the fight against industrial
education which has been waged for twenty-five years by certain advo-
cates of colleges as a means of advancing education. So thoroughly have
they accomplished this purpose that they have succeeded in creating in
the minds of the masses a distrust of industrial training so that the pupils
do not elect courses in trade and agriculture. The result is that some
agricultural and mechanical colleges for Negroes have far larger enroll-
ments in commercial than in trade courses and the less specialized city
high schools can create little real interest in vocational subjects.43
With the precarious position of the Negro in industry attracting such
wide attention even the most partisan advocates of college education
admit the need for more thoroughgoing industrial training for the mass of
Negroes. The way is opened therefore for a rededication of the interest in
vocational training. Many of the elements in the new situation deserve
more study than they have been given and whatever program is evolved
should be predicated on such studies. Much has been accomplished in
strengthening and in adding to the attractiveness of vocational training by
the extension of the Smith Hughes work to Negro schools and by the
work of the Jeanes Fund county industrial supervisors, who work with
colored teachers. In the distribution of the Smith Hughes funds the
Negroes do not share in proportion to their numbers, but are allotted
part of the funds by the local boards.
Mexican Education. — Except in certain parts of Texas, Mexicans are
admitted to the same public schools as white pupils. The few studies
which have been made indicate the same kind of problems in the separate
Mexican schools in Texas as in the Negro schools. Mexican education,
however, is a field in which there has been little study.
Indian Education. — The really important changes in Indian education
have been so recent as to be difficult to describe statistically. For many
years Indian education proceeded largely on the theory of herding the
children into boarding schools and placing them under the instruction of
teachers whose pay and educational qualifications were below those of
the surrounding public schools. In 1930, 38,000 out of 75,000 Indian
children were enrolled in the public school system with tuition paid by
the federal government.
Retardation is a great problem in Indian schools. This is largely due
to failure to get the pupils into school at the right time rather than to
defects in the pupils or deficiencies in the instruction. Doubts as to the
educability of the Indian have been dispelled by the increasing number of
those creditably completing college courses and by the measures of mental
tests which indicate intelligence of a high rank.
43 Woofter, Negro Problems in Cities, op. cit.
[ 590 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
The Indian office has moved expeditiously to put into effect the
changes suggested by the survey of Indian Administration made in 1928.
An expert supervisory staff has been assembled in Washington to vitalize
various special phases of Indian education and steps taken gradually to
raise the pay and qualifications of the teachers.
VI. RACE PREJUDICE
In this section only white-Negro prejudice is discussed, but there are
general similarities in the relations between the native whites and the
non-native white groups, as shown by social deprecation, economic
exploitation and even violence. The manifestations of race prejudice
against the white foreigner and the Indian are far less marked than against
the other groups which are set apart by color.
Negro-white Prejudice. — Prejudice is based in part on social fear and
in part on economic competition.44 Many of the taboos and practices of
the south regarding the contact of the races had their inception in the
rebuttal of the south to anti-slavery agitation and later in the resistance
of the south to reconstruction policies. As these recede into the past the
prejudice which they engendered tends to become less violent. From
another point of view prejudice tends to be more violent in proportion
to the numbers of the non- white group. On the Pacific coast there was
not much prejudice against Orientals until they came in large numbers.
Similarly the states and counties in the south which have had Negro
majorities in the population have been more unrelenting in their racial
code than the border states where Negroes constitute only one-fourth to
one-third of the population. There has also been a flare up of prejudice in
many northern communities when there has been an influx of Negroes
into cities where only a few lived formerly. The task of charting prejudice
can best be approached by tracing the course of some of its indirect
manifestations.
The most marked result of prejudice is the violent settlement of racial
difficulties by beating, homicide, or lynching. As an aftermath of slavery,
the lash was an accepted instrument of discipline on the plantation and in
the prison, but the practice of whipping Negroes for minor breaches of
discipline has now been abandoned by practically all plantations. Lynch-
ing has declined steadily since the first records were kept. For thirty years
before 1920 the annual average was 84, the trend being continuously
downward, and since 1920 the trend has been sharply downward averag-
ing only 16 per year from 1925 to 1929. Lynching fluctuates somewhat
with the economic cycle, being more frequent in periods of depression.
Thus 1930 was a year of lynching far above the general trend line. There is
44 See discussion of prejudice and economic competition in President's Conference on
Home Ownership, Preliminary Report, XXI.
[ 591 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
a moderately high negative correlation between the fluctuations in
lynching and in the per acre value of cotton.
Segregation. — The influx of large numbers of Negroes into northern
cities has in general increased the pressure toward segregation. Negro
neighborhoods have become more solidified and many theatres and
restaurants which paid little attention to colored patrons as long as they
were few have adopted policies of segregation.45 There has been no
change in the segregation laws of the south and little in the general
customs, but observers agree that functionaries dealing with the Negro
in public places are less brusque and arbitrary than formerly.
Exploitation. — Economic exploitation has been emphasized in the
sections on Agriculture and Industry. The chief offset to exploitive
tendencies has been the increase in Negro education, but prejudice in
industry is still manifest in limiting Negro jobs, in allowing exploitation
of cheap rental property and in perpetuating unsatisfactory credit condi-
tions on the farm. Zoning laws and building codes have imposed some
checks upon the exploitation of rental property and one feature of the
plantation system is decreasing, namely, the requirement that tenants and
laborers purchase their supplies from the plantation commissary. It is
becoming more and more the custom to pay by check.
Politics. — The political impotence of the southern Negro is both a
result and a cause of race discrimination. It sprang from the prejudices
inflamed by reconstruction and it results in discriminatory practices in
the economic world, in education and in the residence community, which
would not be imposed if those in administrative positions feared the Negro
vote. The shift of large numbers of Negroes into areas where they can vote
has given them a considerably greater influence in national politics and
in the politics of the northern states. There seems to have been little
change in the southern political situation.
The Prejudice of Negroes. — There has been an increase of the prejudice
of Negroes against white persons due to an increasing dissatisfaction with
existing conditions. Policies of segregation have forced upon the Negro
the program of developing himself as a Negro. Hence as his education has
increased, his organizations have become stronger and his press more
influential it is natural that he should become more conscious of his
situation and more rebellious against it.
Social Science. — Social science has made its contribution to the lessen-
ing of prejudice by greatly increased research in Negro problems. Prej-
udice in the past has rested in part on popular misconceptions as to the
health, morality and mentality of the Negro, and the discovery and
dissemination of the truth has ameliorated prejudice among well read
people.
48 On Negro communities in metropolitan centers, see Chap. IX.
[ 592 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
VII. NEGRO-WHITE COOPERATION
Individual cooperation between Negroes and white persons has long
been practiced in the south in the form of: aid in farm and home buying;
aid in difficulties with the law, in securing an education, and through
health and medical advice. In community and statewide matters, how-
ever, the machinery for interracial action was neglected until the World
War when the older generation of whites and Negroes who had cooperated
on a personal basis was dying out.
In 1919 a movement was started which has developed a promising
technique for adjusting racial difficulties and promoting a spirit of
tolerance and helpfulness. In principle this technique consists in assem-
bling in each community a committee of leaders of the two races who trust
each other and are trusted by their constituents and who are committed
to the method of conference and cooperation rather than to bickering,
controversy and struggle. County, city, state and southwide committees
have provided for cooperation at the various levels. The task of finding
leaders willing to serve on such committees has not been difficult, but
organization on such a large scale and preparation for constructive action
is a long, slow process. In the twelve years of the existence of this organiza-
tion much has been accomplished. It has helped to create a new atmos-
phere in which it is no longer unfashionable to be an outspoken friend of
the Negro. This opinion making process has occupied the major thought
of the Commission on Interracial Cooperation, although it has held that
the best method of cultivating tolerant opinion is through working
together for civic or moral improvement. The reduction in the number of
lynchings and the increase in educational appropriation has resulted in
large measure from the pressure of these joint committees.
This technique for reconciling opposing groups has possibilities for
other interracial situations as well but it has not yet been applied to any
great extent to other than Negro- white relationships. The Institute of
Pacific Relations sponsors this interchange of ideas on a broad scale but
no machinery has been set up for dealing cooperatively with local
questions.
VIII. ASSIMILATION
Factors of Assimilation. — The adaptation of alien born white groups
to American life is not so difficult a process as that of the colored races.
The normal activities of industry and education accomplish the major
assimilative processes; in community affairs, aliens need further adjust-
ments which are accomplished through the churches, special organiza-
tions and the press. Finally and most thoroughly assimilation takes the
form of intermarriage with the native born.
[ 593 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Citizenship. — One of the indices applied to the assimilation of aliens
is the extent to which they become citizens. There was a marked increase
in naturalization between 1920 and 1930, the naturalized foreign born
increasing from 48.7 to 58.8 percent of the total foreign born.
Church. — With the stoppage of the inflow of new immigrants the
foreign language church has changed considerably. In the early days of
an immigrant group the church was usually an institution for the pres-
ervation of the language and religion of the mother country. In the
groups which have been established here some time services are held in
English and mission priests and ministers are replaced by those trained
in this country. From 1916 to 1926 (the date of the last Census of Religious
Bodies) there was a marked increase in the membership of the foreign
language churches serving the newer immigrant groups and a more
stable membership in the older groups.
Organizations. — Most foreign organizations are nationalistic in their
inception in that their object is to keep alive in this country the language,
customs and traditions of the mother country. They soon discover many
things which need to be done to adapt their members to the new environ-
ment. As expressed by one investigator, "Everyone of the eighty-two
[Rumanian] Beneficial and Cultural Societies can claim the honor of
having helped to initiate its members into a better understanding of their
duties as citizens of the United States."46
One of the most marked trends of the past twenty years in these
organizations has been the movement toward federation and consolida-
tion. For the most part local organizations of immigrants grew up as
community beneficial societies having few contacts with similar organi-
zations in other localities. Gradually it was realized that benefits
were to be derived from federation, and national consolidation resulted.
The largest of these groups is the Polish National Alliance with 275,000
members and 2,300 branches in twenty-six states. Through these large
integrations each local community of foreigners is brought in contact
with the life of its nationality all over the country and to some extent
with that of other foreign groups. Another marked trend since the restric-
tion of immigration has been the increased effort of such organizations
to secure memberships from the second generation in order that their
future existence may be more secure.
Practically all such organizations have educational aims, although
in many instances they were slow in developing effective educational
programs. Aside from formal activity much educational benefit is derived
from attendance at the meetings and informal discussions of American
problems. Recently through the stimulation of such agencies as the
46 Galitzi, Christine A., A Study of Assimilation Among the Rumanians of the United
States, Columbia University Press, New York, 1929, p. 119.
[ 594 ]
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
American Association for Adult Education and the Foreign Language
Information Service, the educational programs of some of the organiza-
tions have become more effective. Lecture bureaus have been established,
libraries stimulated, discussion groups promoted, and athletics and
recreation developed as a prominent feature. Foreign organizations have
recently gained a greater degree of recognition as integral parts of com-
munity recreational programs. Their games and pageants have received
wide attention and have enriched the community leisure time activities.
The Press. — Soon after its arrival in any appreciable numbers every
foreign group acquires a press. The dates of founding of the oldest existing
papers correspond very closely to the earliest waves of migration. It is
frequently stated by competent observers that the aliens in this country
read more than they did in their home land. Several factors have con-
tributed to this situation. All large foreign organizations print official
papers. As aliens in a new environment they naturally turn their thoughts
back to the home land. In many cases they come from countries where
their dialect or vernacular has had no written expression either because
it was suppressed for nationalistic reasons or because the literary lan-
guage was not intelligible to the masses. Again nationalistic leaders who
have used the press have been interested not only in preserving the
nationalism of immigrants who expected to return but they have also
endeavored to foster the nationalistic spirit in the American group. This
was particularly true of the minority groups whose political life in their
native lands had been restricted before the World War. While national-
istic and linguistic tendencies have been hindrances to Americanization,
the foreign language press has met other demands which have helped to
adjust the immigrant to American life. Considering Americanization as
a process of learning to use American things, it is evident that advertise-
ments are great " Americanizers " and it is said that these are often as
seriously read as the articles. Again, as a purveyor of American news the
foreign press satisfies the desire of the immigrant to keep in step with his
new community, and the commercial type of foreign language paper which,
like its American contemporaries, places emphasis on news, is winning
over the propagandist papers.
The mortality among foreign papers is so high that it is difficult at
any time to get an exact idea of the extent of the foreign press but the
general trend may be inferred from the number of publications.47 These
increased up to 1890, when there were slightly over 1,000, of which 750
were German. The increase was slow from 1890 to 1917 when 1,323 pub-
lications were listed. During this period, however, the German publica-
tions decreased from 750 to 522 and others increased from 278 to 801.
Since the World War there has been a rapid decrease in German news-
47 For figures on foreign language dailies, see Chap. IV,
[ 595 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
papers and a suspension of many of the propagandist organs which had
been devoted to the interests of submerged European groups. Much of
this decrease represents the consolidation of small with large papers.
It was noted by Park48 in 1920 that the cosmopolitan commercial
foreign language newspaper was emerging as the survivor in the struggle
with fraternal organs and radical or nationalistic propaganda sheets and
the continuance of this trend since that date is confirmed in the study
by Mark Villehur. The large well established papers are becoming more
firmly entrenched and many of the weaker "one man" papers are dis-
appearing. The type of publication which is the best " Americanizer "
tends to survive.
In the decade following the close of the World War several other
trends toward greater Americanizing influence may be observed among
the successful language publications. There has been an orientation
toward America in the distribution of space. Almost from the beginning
German papers were American newspapers printed in the German
language. Lately some of the Czech, Italian, Polish and Hungarian news-
papers have assumed the same character. The Czech press is an interest-
ing illustration of this pro- American trend. Initially Czech newspapers
in this country were printed in German and were socialist and strongly
anti-clerical, fighting the cause of the national radicals in the former
Austria-Hungary. Gradually these positions gave way to more conserva-
tive attitudes until today there are a dozen pro-church publications to
three radical journals and the Czech press in this country may be said
to be predominately conservative with a distinct church affiliation.
The situation in the Italian and Russian press is a notable illustration
of the same trend. Until recent years the Italian papers were divided
into "camps" according to their attitude toward Fascism, and the
Russian papers according to their attitude toward the Soviets. This
division still persists, particularly in the Russian press, but important
new factors have changed the general line-up of newspapers in these two
languages. With immigration reduced to negligible figures, these papers
are serving few recent arrivals, while their older readers are becoming
Americanized.
The World War removed many controversies with which the foreign
papers in this country were preoccupied, leaving them free to devote
more attention to the American news. On the other hand new problems
created by the treaty of Versailles have come forward in the papers in
this country. The opposing views as to problems of Yugoslavia find expres-
sion in the Croatian, Serbian and Montenegrin press. Likewise the Slovaks
48 Park, R. E., The Immigrant Press and Its Control, New York and London, 1922,
pp. 352-356.
[ 596 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
in America are supporting a semi-separatist movement and the Lithuan-
ians are preoccupied with a literary and linguistic revival.
In the larger commercial foreign language papers the space is allotted
to five major divisions : American news, world news, home country news,
group life and interests, and editorial features. A number of papers
devote the first two columns to world news, the middle three to
home country news and the last two to American news. The second
page is given over entirely to editorials and all the third and fourth
pages to group interests.
The foreign language press has gained the reputation of radicalism
on account of the fact that it serves laboring people and is friendly to
labor. The majority of papers, however, are non-partisan. Of 853 studied
during the presidential campaign of 1928, only 257 definitely declared for
a candidate and all but 46 of these were Republican or Democratic. The
46 organs supporting radical candidates compare with 57 supporting
radicals in the campaign of 1924. Since 1928 the number of communist
papers has further declined, two having discontinued and two changed
from dailies to weeklies.
Radical papers often face two ways advocating radicalism in the
home land and conservatism in the United States. Thus the Russian
Voice is moderate on American policies but strongly pro-Soviet. On the
whole religious propaganda is much more common than political in the
foreign papers. The ratio of church to radical papers in the various lan-
guage groups is anywhere from 6 to 1 to 10 to 1.
Formerly the racial appeal was played up in the foreign language
press of several nationalities. It is still strong in the Czech, Lithuanian,
Slovak and Spanish language groups. On the other hand, the appeal to
race pride and solidarity is negligible in the German, Norwegian, Danish
and Swedish papers. It has been steadily declining in the Italian, Polish,
Hungarian and Yugoslav papers.
Another Americanizing trend has been the recent inauguration in
many papers of an English section designed to interest the Americanized
immigrant and the second generation. Roughly about 200 publications
in the foreign languages use English text in their pages.
The sources of news have also become more American in type. A
single news service started by the federal government in 1918 and
operated by the Foreign Language Information Service is widely used by
the foreign language press. The articles cover a wide range of subjects
designed to help interpret America to the immigrant. Few of the language
papers belong to a major press syndicate and of the 17 language groups
surveyed for this study only four had functioning press syndicates.
However, such material as the syndicated columns, comic strips, short
editorials and serials is increasingly used in the foreign papers.
[ 597 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Since the drastic restriction of immigration the foreign language press
is facing gradual extinction as there is little hope that the artificially
stimulated interest of the immigrant children in their fathers' native
tongue and culture will replace even a small percent of the loss in readers.
Negro Assimilation. — In cultural assimilation the Negro has the
advantage of freedom from linguistic and nationalistic traditions but
this is balanced by the disadvantage of color segregation and prejudice.
Education, adaptation to industry, and the rise of the middle class have
been mentioned as factors in the adaptation of the Negro to American
life. The Negro press, special organizations and the church also play
their part.
Unlike the foreign press, the Negro newspapers are an almost negli-
gible factor in assimilation. They are almost entirely devoted to such
news and editorials as promote racial pride and racial solidarity. The
Negro press has expanded from one or two magazines published twenty
years ago to a body of several hundred newspapers and magazines, many
of which have large circulations.
Negro organizations promote cultural assimilation to a marked degree.
Like the foreign born, the Negro first developed fraternal insurance
organizations many of which later developed into insurance companies,
and in recent years there has been a tendency to develop a system of
national organizations paralleling those set up by the whites, evidenced
by such bodies as the National Negro Medical Association, the National
Association of Teachers in Negro Schools, and the National Negro
Business League.
In the arts the Negro is attaining greater recognition. Books by and
about Negroes are increasing in number and popularity as are plays by
Negro authors and with Negro casts. Appreciation of Negro music is
increasing. In the arts the Negro tends more and more to contribute as
a Negro than to imitate white achievement.
The Negro church, or more specifically, the Negro ministry is also
powerful in assimilation. Until recently preachers and teachers were the
most influential community leaders. General community movements
such as health week, better homes contests and community chests are
increasingly using the Negro church as a means of enlisting the interest
of the Negro community. Negro church membership continues to in-
clude a slightly higher percentage of the total than does white church
membership. 49
Intermarriage. — While Negro intermarriage is at a minimum, the
homogeneity of the race in America has been destroyed by the infusion
of white blood. Seemingly the direct infusion is less than before the Civil
War but mulattoes are increasing in proportion because of matings of
49 For additional data on Negro churches and ministers, see Chap. XX.
[ 598 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
mulatto with mulatto and of black with mulatto, while pure blacks can
only increase by the union of pure blacks.50
This increase has led some authors to assert that biologically as well
as culturally the Negro in the United States is developing a new "brown"
race.61 This is certainly true of the urban groups where studies indicate
that in numbers and in power the lighter groups are increasing.52 The
rural black belts remain the last place where large numbers of pure
Negroes are to be found.
The southern states forbid by statute the intermarriage of Negroes and
white persons. There are few data either as to the number or the trend of
Negro- white marriages in the states where it is not forbidden. The only
recorded marriages by color are those of New York state exclusive of
New York City,53 where the figures show a negligible number of marriages
of colored brides to white grooms and about 2.8 percent of all colored
grooms married to white brides (1916-1924).
Marriage statistics by nationalities are published only for New York
state (exclusive of New York City) and two other states. These areas,
however, indicate a marked increase in marriage of foreign born to native
born and to natives of other than their home land. In the second genera-
tion this is apparent in the increase in children of mixed parentage. In
1920 the number of children of mixed parentage was only 45 percent of
the number of foreign parentage while in 1930 the number of children of
mixed parentage was 50 percent of the number of foreign parentage.
There has always been so great an excess of males in the foreign
population that men have been forced to intermarry in larger numbers
than women. The figures of this section therefore refer to foreign grooms
and not to brides. Brunner's64 study of the rural marriages of foreign
born grooms in three states indicates that in the period 1900 to 1912, 57
percent of the foreign grooms married foreign brides and from 1921 to
1926 only 44 percent married foreign brides. The proportion of marriages
to natives of foreign parents remained about the same and the marriages
to natives of native parents increased from 14.6 percent to 27.6 percent.
A similar trend was noted in marriages of native grooms who were the
children of foreign parents. That this trend has been accentuated since
1925 is indicated by the figures of the New York State Health Depart-
ment. In 1925 there were 90 marriages of foreign grooms to foreign
60 Census figures as to the proportion of mulattoes are very inaccurate. Estimates vary
from 40 to 80 percent of the total.
61 Herskovitz, Melville J., The American Negro, New York, 1928; Embree, Edwin,
Brown America, the Story of a New Race, New York, 1931.
62 Reuter, E. B., The Mulatto in the United States, Boston, 1918, and Race Mixture:
Studies in Intermarriage and Miscegenation, New York, 1931.
53 New York State Department of Health, Annual Reports.
54 Brunner, E. de S., Immigrant Farmers and their Children, Garden City, New York,
1929.
[ 599 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
brides per 100 marriages to native brides; in 1929, the ratio was only 75
to foreign per 100 to native. This trend is manifest in each nationality
tabulated except the Germans.
The increase in intermarriage may be traced to several factors:
1. The proportion of the older people among the foreign born has
grown, especially in communities which do not receive new immigrants.
This means that the foreign born of the older group are more likely to
find mates of their own age in the native American population than in
their own group or the second generation of their own stock.
2. The proportion of females in the foreign stock has become more
nearly equal to the proportion of males so that the practice of sending
back for brides is not so frequent.
3. The growth of a large stable group of the second generation of a
number of nationalities has made it possible for both grooms and brides
of foreign stock to mate with American born descendants of their own
stock without recourse to fresh arrivals from Europe.
4. The slackening of immigration during the World War and since
the application of quotas has reduced the proportionate number of foreign
born so that the chances of their mating with American born consorts
have been increased.
rx. CONCLUSION
The exploitation and prejudice indicated in the previous sections show
clearly that the work of adjusting to American life the various color
and national groups and of adjusting American life to them is still of
primary importance. The extent and intensity of the activities of the
Ku Klux Klan manifested the amount of prejudice against alien groups
which persists in the native mind. However, the final complete collapse of
the Klan and the failure of similar movements to succeed it (notably
the American Fascisti organized in Atlanta) show a hopeful recession of
post war intolerance.
While the race contacts have become more extensive in the past
decade friction has probably become less intensive. Foreign immigrants
have become successful farmers and have risen to skilled positions in
industry, and Negroes, owing to the depressed condition of southern
agriculture, have deserted southern farms for northern industry in large
numbers. Here they have made satisfactory progress. However, the
position of the Negro in southern urban occupations is not so satisfactory,
as he is losing ground in some of his traditional occupations. All groups
have participated in the general progress of American education and
public health work, but the educational facilities of the Negroes (and of
the Mexicans in Texas) are still far inferior to those of white children.
f 600 1
RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS
Economic and educational progress has meant the emergence of a
middle class. No longer are all foreigners or colored people merely
laborers. Some are skilled workmen, small business proprietors and
professional men.
In addition there is the fact that a growing number of organizations
are interesting themselves in problems of the adjustment of alien groups.
The technique of interracial cooperation is proving of value in securing
more satisfactory Negro- white relations. The greatly increased ap-
propriations for the Indian Bureau applied to carrying out the recom-
mendations of a thoroughgoing Indian survey have increased the value
of Indian services and the tendency toward federal, state and county
cooperation in Indian problems tends to bring the Indian in closer touch
with the white community. A number of organizations for dealing with
the immigrant have strengthened their programs and having abandoned
the idea of forcing the alien into a "melting pot" have directed their
efforts toward assimilation along essential lines and the cultivation of
those things in the old world tradition which may enrich American life.
The immigrant church, organizations and press have also changed from
purely nationalistic agencies to agencies which help in adjustment as well
as keep alive old world languages and customs.
[ 601
CHAPTER XII
THE VITALITY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
BY EDGAR SYDENSTRICKEB
GENERAL trends in mortality were discussed in Chapter I in con-
nection with population growth, and some of the problems of
health and vitality peculiar to racial and ethnic groups have been
referred to in Chapter XI. The present chapter presents briefly, but with
some degree of critical appraisal, significant evidence relating to the vitality
of the American people.1 It discusses trends in mortality at various ages,
basic facts relating to vitality, changes in environmental conditions
associated with trends in mortality, genetic problems and the present
state of the people's health.
The term vitality is used so variously and so loosely that a workable
definition is desirable at the outset. Vitality in the sense of ability to
reproduce may be dismissed as inapplicable to this discussion for the
reason that fertility and the capacity to survive beyond the age of repro-
duction are two distinct biological capacities and, as far as we know, are
not even associated.2 Similarly the conception that the vitality of a
population is the ability to reproduce at a much higher rate than its
members die must be rejected since a very fecund people may die soon
after the reproductive period has been passed.3 A theoretically adequate
definition is the biological, which states that vitality is the inherited
capacity of the individuals composing a people to survive. Unfortunately,
however, this definition is not a workable one for the obvious reason that
1 For assistance in collecting material for this chapter especial acknowledgment should
be made to the research staff of the Milbank Memorial Fund and the statistical staff of
the United States Public Health Service. It is also proper to state that several of the
principal researches to which references are made were undertaken because of the need
for their results in the preparation of this chapter although, in the interest of science and
public health, some have been and others will be published in much greater detail than is
possible within the limits of this necessarily brief discussion.
2 In their paper "On the Correlation Between Duration of Life and the Number of
Offspring" published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, 1900, vol. LXVII, pp. 159-179,
Beeton, Yule and Pearson supported the thesis that persons who survived to advanced
ages are by nature more fecund than those who do not. However, the evidence adduced
is not convincing since it rests on the unwarranted assumption that there was no secular
trend in the size of families whose genealogical records furnished the data for the study.
3 For this reason, such expressions as "vital index," the ratio of births to deaths, which
is a convenient mathematical expression of the relationship between birth and death rates
for those who desire to consider the two biological facts together, have not been adopted for
the purposes of this discussion.
[ 602 ]
VITALITY
it is impossible to ascertain accurately what the inherited span of life is
for any individual; only his actual attainment in length of life can be
known. The years he lives are determined not only by his innate capacity
to survive, but also by the influences of a complex environment. Ordinarily
it is said that "three score years and ten" constitute the man's span of life
and measure his innate capacity to survive. Yet it is a fact of common
observation that under the most diffcult conditions many people not only
live to the age of seventy but also continue to enjoy life and be socially
useful to the end. A few reach the century mark. But even those who live to
a great age do not finally fall to pieces like the "one hoss shay" in Holmes'
poem. For if one takes a group of persons of unusual vitality, as Pearl4
did when he studied a group who had attained the age of at least ninety
years before death, it will be found that some parts of the physiological
machine break down earlier than others because of damage from environ-
ment. We really learn nothing, therefore, about the vitality of such
persons. We merely learn how long they lived and something about why
they died, information available for short lived people as well.
We cannot, therefore, accurately measure vitality in its strictly bio-
logical sense. Yet the concept should not be lost sight of, and the available
evidence relating to genetic factors, such as inheritance of longevity and
its implications as to constitutional vigor, should carefully be taken into
account. The evidence is scanty, but the possible force of genetic influences
cannot be ignored in considering the significance of changes in the length
of life actually attained by the American people composed of persons with
different racial origins and living under greatly varying conditions of
environment.
I. THE TRENDS IN MORTALITY AT DIFFERENT AGES
With this conception of vitality in mind, the trend in the expectation
of survival (or conversely, the trend in the rates at which individuals fail
to survive) may be discussed. This section will embody the basic material
of the chapter.
Unfortunately, complete records of deaths have never been kept for the
entire United States, although in the last few years they have been
collected for over 95 percent of the population. For only a relatively
short period — some thirty years — they are available for what is known
as the "original" death registration area of 1900 which is composed
4 Pearl, Raymond and Raenkham, T., "Studies on Human Longevity — Constitutional
Factors in Mortality at Advanced Ages," Human Biology, Feb., 1932, vol. 4, no. 1, pp.
80-118. Thus for 72,320 deaths of such persons in 1923-1927, Pearl showed that "over
forty-five percent in each sex were chargeable to breakdown or failure biologically of the
circulatory system; approximately twelve (in males) to thirteen (females) percent to break-
down or failure of the respiratory system; about twelve percent (males) and nine percent
(females) to the kidneys; and about seven percent in each sex to the alimentary tract."
[ 603 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of ten states5 and the District of Columbia and includes about 40 per-
cent of the people in the country. Prior to 1900 mortality statistics
are fragmentary. They exist for only a few states and cities. Limitations
of space make it impossible to present all these fragmentary data, so a
selection of typical records has been made.
Expectation of years of life at birth .
65
60
5O
45
40
35
30
25
20
I 5
I O
1800
1850
1900
1930
FIG. 1. — Trend in the expectation in years of life at birth in Massachusetts, 1789-1929,
as shown by various life tables. (Based on Table 1.)
The longest record of expectation of life is afforded by various life
tables for Massachusetts. These are summarized for a few ages in Table 1
and the trend in the expectation of life at birth for males and females has
been plotted in Figure 1. The data for the earlier years are not as precise
6 The states are Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Indiana.
[ 604 1
VITALITY
as those for the later but they are sufficiently accurate to indicate that in
Massachusetts at least, at the end of the eighteenth century, the expecta-
tion of life at birth was about thirty-five years. During the nineteenth
century a gradual increase in this figure is indicated until about 1890. In
that year the expectation began to increase rapidly and the upward trend
has been especially marked from 1900 to the present. This striking
TABLE 1. — COMPLETE EXPECTATION OF LIFE IN YEARS, FOB EACH SEX, AT SELECTED
AGES, MASSACHUSETTS, 1789 TO 1929°
Date
Expectation of life in years at specified agea
0
20
40
60
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1789*
1850
1855
34.5
38.3
38.7
41.74
42.50
44.09
46.01
49.33
54.07
58.11
36.5
40.5
40.9
43.50
44.46
46.61
49.42
53.06
56.56
61.36
34.2
40.1
39.8
42.17
40.66
41.20
41.82
42.48
44.6
45.51
34.3
40.2
39.9
42.78
42.03
42.79
43.71
44.85
45.5
47.66
25.2
27.9
27.0
28.86
27.37
27.41
27.17
26.97
28.8
28.55
26.9
29.8
28.8
30.29
28.76
29.00
28.79
29.04
30.0
30.64
14.8
15.6
14.4
15.60
14.73
14.38
13.90
13.42
14.4
14.01
16.1
17.0
15.6
16.91
15.70
15.74
15.06.
14.79
15.4
15.35
1878-1882
1890
1893-1897
1901
1910
1919-1920"
1929
» The data for 1850, 1878-1882, and 1893-1897 are taken from a compilation of life tables presented in
"A Historical Retrospect on the Expectation of Life — II," Statistical Bulletin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Com-
pany, March, 1928, vol. IX, no. 3, pp. 5-8, and those for 1789 and 1855 are estimated from the expectations
given in the same article for the population undifferentiated by sex. The expectations for 1890, 1901, and
1910 are taken from the U. S. Census Bureau, United States Life Tables, 1890, 1901, 1910, and 1901-1910, 1921,
and those for 1919-1920 are graphic interpolations (hence only one decimal reported) of the U. S. Census
Bureau United States Abridged Life Tables, 1928. The expectations for 1929 were obtained by constructing a
life table by the method described by Sir Arthur Newsholme and Dr. T. H. C. Stevenson m "The Graphic
Method of Constructing a Life Table Illustrated by the Brighton Life Table, 1891-1900," Journal of Hygiene,
1903, vol. Ill, p. 297 ff.
6 Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
e White population only.
acceleration is also shown in the data for the original registration states
covering the years 1900-1929. (Table 2.) The expectation of life at birth is
now approximately fifty-seven years for males and sixty years for females.
These figures do not, of course, represent the span of life; they merely
indicate the average age at death in the particular year for which they
were computed from mortality and population records or estimates. The
expectation of life is also ordinarily computed at different ages, and in
Table 2 figures for selected ages are presented. Thus in 1929, for males
who had attained the age of forty, it was twenty-eight years. At the age
of sixty it was fourteen years. A very cursory examination of Tables 1 and
2 is sufficient to reveal the extremely interesting fact that the marked
605
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
increases in expectation of life occurred only in the younger age groups;6
in middle and old age no consistent increases and some decreases occurred.
This is portrayed graphically and in more detail in Figure 5, which
10
60
9O
IOO
FIG. 2. — Number of persons out of each 100,000 born alive who survive to different
ages. The curves compare the rates of survival for males and females for 1901 and 1929
and are based on the populations and deaths in the United States death registration area of
1900. (See footnote to Table 2.)
indicates the number of males and females surviving at each age out of
100,000 born alive (the lx curves of the life table).7
6 For further discussion of the vitality and health of children, see Chap. XV.
7 For a population the ideal statistical measure of actual survival would be afforded
by records of the entire lives of all individuals born at a given instant of time so that the
number of survivors at successive years could be shown. Such records are not available
anywhere and it is consequently necessary to resort to the records of mortality within a
given period and to ascertain for a theoretical group of the population how many survived
to the various ages based upon that rate of mortality. This is the commonly used lx of
the life table.
f 606 1
VITALITY
The trends in the rates at which persons at different ages fail to
survive are thus a matter of extreme interest and importance in this
discussion. After a canvass of the available mortality data the following
series of age-specific death rates were selected for detailed study: (1) the
Deaths per 1,000 Population
IOO
eo
60
4O
30
20
10
8
6
4
3
2 h
I84O
I8GO
I860
1900
I92O
FIG. 3. — Trends in mortality among persons of different ages in Baltimore, 1840-1925.
A logarithmic ordinate scale is used.
Baltimore records from 1830 through 1929 at decennial years, a period
of almost a century; (2) the Massachusetts records for single years; and
(3) the records for the original death registration area beginning in 1900,
a period of 30 years. The statistical tables are omitted from this chapter
because of limitations of space but the data are shown graphically in
[ 607 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Loqqnthmic Scole
5 Years
1870 1875 I860 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1929
FIG. 4. — Trends in mortality among persons of different sex-age groups in Massachusetts,
1868-1929. A logarithmic ordinate scale is used to indicate the rate of change by the slope
of the line. The figures inserted are the deaths per 1,000 population at the beginning and
end of the period. Data were compiled from Annual Reports of the Massachusetts State
Health Department and United States Mortality Statistics.
608 ]
VITALITY
Figures 3, 4 and 5. The rates are plotted in such a fashion (on logarithmic
ordinate scales) that the slopes of the trends of mortality among persons of
Logarithmic Scale
1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1929
FIG. 41. — Trends in mortality among persons of different sex-age groups in Massachusetts,
1868-1929 (continued).
different ages may be compared. These figures present the basic material
of the chapter. For the purpose of completeness some data, presented in
f 609 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Logarithmic Scale
60-69 Years
41.4
34.2
,
70-79 Years
78.1
80 Years +
181.1
193.7
Male
Female
1870 1875 I860 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1929
FIG. 4s. — Trends in mortality among persons of different age-sex groups in Massachusetts,
1868-1929 (continued).
TABLE 2. — COMPLETE EXPECTATION OF LIFE IN YEARS, FOB EACH SEX, AT SELECTED
AGES, ORIGINAL REGISTRATION STATES, 1901-1929°
Expectation of life in years at specified ages
Date
C
s
0
4<
)
6
9
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1901
47.88
50 70
42 03
43 60
27 65
29.08
14.33
15.21
1910
49.86
53 24
42.48
44.66
27.32
29.15
13.95
14.90
1919-1920*
54.05
56.41
44.4
45.4
28.8
30.1
14.6
15.5
1929
56.81
60.36
44.37
46.82
27.85
30.06
13.89
15.10
0 The data for 1901 and 1910 are taken from the United States Life Tables, and those for 1919-1920 are
graphic interpolations of the United States Abridged Life Tables. The values for 1929 were obtained by the same
method as those shown for Massachusetts in Table 1.
6 White population only.
[ 610 ]
VITALITY
Logarithmic Scale
- 5 Years
Z 5 -34 Years
8.3
65 -74 Years
61.5
1900 1905 1910
1920 1925 1929 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1929
FIG. 5. — Trends in mortality among persons of different age-sex groups in the registration
states of 1900, 1900-1929. A logarithmic ordinate scale is used.
[ 611 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Table 3 and Figure 6, on the trends of the gross mortality rate among
Negroes are included. Deaths among Negroes are not registered as
completely nor as accurately with respect to cause as among whites.
Furthermore their separation into sex and age groups has not been
observed for a long enough time to indicate trends in the sex-age specific
rates. It may be pointed out, however, that the trends in the death rate
for Negroes are not significantly different from those for white persons in
two cities for which fairly comparable records are available, Baltimore
and New Orleans.8
Depths per 1.000 Population
50
40
30
10
10
I860 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 I860 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
FIG. 6. — Trends in mortality among colored and white persons in Baltimore and in New
Orleans, 1880-1928. (Public Health Bulletin, 174, 1927.)
Attention is now called particularly to the trends in mortality of the
sex-age groups since 1870 shown in the basic Figures 3, 4 and 5.9 Several
highly significant facts appear from these data which cover the last sixty
years. They are:
1. That the mortality of children under five years of age did not
decrease materially until about 1900.
2. That the rates at which persons over five years of age but under
middle age have died has been steadily downward.
3. That the rate at which persons of the upper adult groups have
died has been steadily upward.
8 U. S. Public Health Service, Gover, Mary, Mortality Among Negroes in the United
States, with introduction by Sydenstricker, Edgar, Public Health Bulletin, no. 174, 1927.
See also discussion of Negro deaths in Chap. XI.
9 The rise in the mortality rate prior to 1870 (in Baltimore, for example) will be referred
to later.
f 612 1
VITALITY
4. That significant sex differences appear in the rate at which mortal-
ity has been increasing, particularly during the last decade.
TABLE 3. — MORTALITY AMONG COLORED POPULATION IN MARYLAND, 1911-1928, AND IN
SELECTED SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STATES, 1916-1928°
Year
Annual deaths per 1,000
population
Year
Annual deaths per 1,000
population
Selected
Selected
Selected
Selected
Maryland
southern
northern
Maryland
southern
northern
states6
states'
states6
states*
1911
1912
1913
23.7
22.6
24.2
1920
21.1
19.4
19.0
17.2
15.4
15.7
20.3
17.1
17.1
1921
1922
1914
1915
23.3
23.3
24.6
25.9
33.0
22.3
18.4
19.1
23.8
17.6
20.2
23.0
29.3
19.7
1923
1924
20.9
19.5
20.9
20.6
19.6
19.5
16.3
17.0
16.9
17.6
16.3
17.4
19.1
18.8
18.9
19.4
17.7
18.6
1916
1917
1925
1926
1918
1927
1919
1928
» Compiled from Annual Reports of Mortality Statistics, U. S. Bureau of the Census.
6 Includes: Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.
'Includes: Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.
II. SOME BASIC FACTS RELATING TO VITALITY
Before considering what these facts mean it is important to have
clearly in mind some of the basic concepts which are involved in any
discussion of vitality.
Theoretically, if all persons were endowed with the same vitality
and suffered no mishaps they would live to the end of a span of life that
is as yet undertermined precisely. But at least there would be no infant
mortality, no mortality among children or among young adults and the
middle aged — indeed no mortality at any age until man's allotted days
were fulfilled. The survival curve of a population would continue on a
straight line from birth until the span of life was completed and then it
would drop perpendicularly. Under actual conditions, of course, this is
far from true. The actual curve of survival (Figure £) is constantly
decreasing from the first moment after birth until almost the last person
dies a century later.
Disease Is Selective as to Age. — This salient fact is depicted in
Figure 7 which shows that individuals composing our population usually
die from quite different causes at different ages. In other words, the
decrease in the number of survivors proceeding from a given date of
birth is not altogether due to the wearing out of some human machines
earlier than others, but to a variety of causes characteristic of different
[ 613 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
2,500 1
DIARRHEA AND ENTERITIS
DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
1.000
20
AGE
WHOOPING COUGH
20
AGE
MEASLES
20
AGE
1,600
1.200
400
0
-NEPHRITIS AND BRIGHT5 DISEASE
6O
AGE
ORGANIC DISEASES OF THE HEART
FIG. 7. — Some important causes of death at different ages under 40 years and at
different ages 40 years and over in 1920 in the United States death registration states of
1900.
614
VITALITY
stages of life. Some are peculiar to very early infancy like the so-called
congenital defects and malformations; others are peculiar to later infancy
and childhood and include most of the infectious diseases; others are
peculiar to early adult life and include typhoid and pulmonary tubercu-
losis; while in the later adult years the large majority of deaths are due
to organic breakdowns such as nephritis and heart and circulatory dis-
eases, or to such diseases as pneumonia, diabetes and cancer. It may be
observed in general that in the early years of life failure to survive may
be ascribed chiefly to accidents of environment, such as unfavorable
conditions of living, the ignorance of mothers, and infections that may
arise out of the environment. Nevertheless it is important to recognize
that there are differences in the capacity to resist infections and the
diseases resulting from infections. In the later years of life failure to
survive may be traced chiefly to organic breakdowns which in turn may
be due to damages resulting from earlier infections, "congenital" defects,
the inheritance of specific constitutional weaknesses and the effects of
unfavorable environment. The relative importance of any one of these
factors as affecting mortality in middle and old age cannot be deter-
mined from information now available.
Inheritance Influences in the Duration of Life. — Some of the differ-
ences in the duration of life are due to inheritance specifically and are
independent of environment. It has long been recognized that the vitality
of the female foetus is higher than the male, and that this higher vitality
persists through infancy and childhood. Whether the generally lower
female death rate in later life is attributable to a stronger vitality or a
better conservation of vitality is still a matter for debate. With regard
to the more pertinent matter of differences in inheritance of vitality
among persons of the same sex, about as far as students have gone to
date is to show that such differences do exist. Convincing scientific evi-
dence on this point has appeared only recently.10 Dublin11 analyzed a
large mass of American insurance records containing data on the dura-
tion of life of parents and siblings of insured persons. This analysis
10 The classic studies of Beeton and Pearson and of Bell were disappointing to those
who, from common observation of long lived families, expected much more positive results.
As Pearl has shown, these studies were not based on representative samples of the popula-
tion and the existing data relating to the length of life of parents and of children are not
suitable for analysis by the statistical method of correlation. At least they have yielded
no definite conclusions. See Beeton, M., and Pearson, K., " Data for the Problem of Evalua-
tion in Man. II. A First Study of Longevity, and the Selective Death Rate in Man," Pro-
ceedings of the Royal Statistical Society, London, 1899, vol. 65, pp. 290-305. See also, by the
same authors, the paper " On the Inheritance of the Duration of Life, and on the Intensity of
Natural Selection in Man," Biometrika, 1901, vol. 1, pp. 50-89. Also Bell, Alexander
Graham, The Duration of Life and Conditions Associated with Longevity. A Study of the
Hyde genealogy, Washington, 1918. For the reference to Pearl, see footnote 4 to this chapter.
11 Dublin, Louis I., "Heredity's Part in Determining our Life Span." New York Times,
June 8, 1930.
[ 615 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
DEATHS PER IOO.OOO POPULATION
TYPHOID
DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
150
100
SO
40
AGE
60
TUBERCULOSIS (PULMONARY)
^TUBERCULOSIS (OTHER)
o 10 20
DEATHS PE* 100.000 POPULATION
40
AGE
100
INFLUENZA
O 10 20
DEATHS PER 100,000 POPULATION
1.500
40
A6C
FIG. 7A. — Some important causes of death that occurred at all ages in 1920 in the United
States death registration states of 1900.
616
VITALITY
points to the conclusion that there is a gross association between the
length of the lives of parents and those of children. (Figure 8.) Probably
the most searching and satisfactory study to date is a preliminary one by
Pearl and his associates of original material collected for a sample of a
fairly homogeneous class of the population (workingmen's families in
DEATH RATE
PER I. OOP POPULATION
5O
45
40
35
30
25
2O
I 5
IO
5
O
'GROUP A -BOTH PARENTS ATTAINED AGE 75
•GROUP B -BOTH PARENTS DIED UNDER 5O
Z5-29 30-34 35-39
40-44 45 -49
AGE
50-54 55-59 6O-64 65-69
FIG. 8. — Death rates among white males classified according to longevity of parent.
Based on the experience of 34 American and Canadian life insurance companies, issues
1869-1899 traced to 1900. (Reproduced from Dublin. See footnote 11.)
Baltimore) in which life table methods were employed in analysis. His
results are illustrated in Figure 9, which is taken from a recent paper.12
12 Pearl, Raymond, "Studies on Human Longevity. IV. The Inheritance of Longevity.
Preliminary Report," Human Biology, vol. Ill: 245-269, May, 1931. Pearl summarizes his
conclusions as follows:
"First, that the expectation of life of the parents (either father or mother) of children
dying at 50 and over years of age is, at all ages from 20 on, greater, by amounts varying
from about 7 to 28 percent, than the expectation of life of the parents of children dying
under 50 years of age; second, that the expectation of life of grandparents (either grand-
father or grandmother) of grandchildren dying at 50 and over years of age is, at all ages,
from 20 on, greater, by amounts varying from about 7 to 59 percent, than the expectation
of life of grandparents of grandchildren dying under 50 years of age; third, that the expecta-
tion of life of fathers of children dying (or living) at 80 and over years of age is, at all ages
from 20 on, greater by amounts varying from about 26 to over 50 percent, than the expecta-
tion of life of fathers of children dying under 5 years of age; fourth, that the expectation
of life of mothers of children dying (or living) at 80 and over years of age is, at all ages from
20 on, greater, by amounts varying from 23 to 36 percent, than the expectation of life of
mothers of children dying under 5 years of age.
"These life table studies also indicate that the expectation of life of sons of fathers
dying (or living) at 80 and over years of age, is greater at all ages from birth on, than the
expectation of life of sons of fathers dying at ages between 50 and 70 years inclusive, and is
still greater than the expectation of life of sons of fathers dying under 50 years of age.
These differences are regular and considerable in amount."
[ 617]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The fact that the progenitors lived under different environments from
those of their offspring has not been taken fully into account. Exactly
what part differences in inheritance of longevity play in determining the
death rate of a population is still unknown.
<VJ
SONS OF FATHERS DYING
under 50 years |
50 to 79 years |
80 years & over
2O 4O 6O
Mean -after -lifetime at age
FIG. 9. — Expectation of life in years (mean-after-lifetime) at birth and at certain older
ages of sons, fathers dying at various ages. (From Pearl. See footnote 12.)
The Rate of Survival Varies in Different Areas. — It has been sug-
gested by various studies that in different geographic areas the mortality
rate varies because of differences in climate and in the prevalence of
specific infectious diseases; because of differences in degree of urbaniza-
[ 618 ]
VITALITY
tion; because of conditions affecting males more unfavorably than females
(presumably occupational); because of selective factors, such as the cli-
matic selection of tuberculous persons in Colorado, or selection of the
more hardy in opening up new territory, or industrial selection according
to type of work, etc.; and because of differences in culture and habits of
living. To illustrate : there is some evidence that the populations of locali-
ties differ with respect to physique and possibly physical constitution.
Physique, for example, is correlated with tuberculosis, a disease that in
the opinion of many is an index of vitality. The data analyzed in prepara-
tion of this chapter are too voluminous for presentation here, but they
may be summarized briefly. Using the measurements of chest circumfer-
ence, height and weight of men under thirty years of age drafted during
the World War in 1917 and 1918, it was found that young adult males
differed significantly by localities according to Davenport's index of
build and Pignet's index of robustness. These differences were found to
be associated with the predominant types of industry in the various
localities. In other words, cities with a relatively large population of
males employed in "heavy" industries, such as steel, had relatively large
proportions of physically robust men; cities with a relatively large pro-
portion of males employed in "light" occupations, such as trade and
clerical, had relatively large proportions of less robust young men. The
tuberculosis death rate among young adult males in these cities varied
directly with the proportion of the less robust. Thus there appeared to be
a selection of physical and constitutional types in accordance with the
physical demands of the predominant industries. Similarly wide differ-
ences were found in the prevalence of defects among men drafted from
different parts of the country. Many of these impairments are directly
associated with environmental and not constitutional factors.13 The
differences in the mortality and impairment rates of different areas illus-
trate the complexity of the problem of ascertaining what factors are
involved and what their relative influence is in determining the rate at
which the various populations survive. That genetic factors exist there
can be no doubt. The continuous process of breeding is a simple biological
fact but the conditions that influence the mixtures of breeding are becom-
ing more complex and more difficult to evaluate. Practically nothing is
known about human genetics that can be applied in the study of so large
and heterogeneous a population as that of the United States.
Particular Environmental Conditions Are Associated with the Rate of
Survival. — Whatever may be the genetic factors involved it is undoubt-
edly true that organic breakdowns occur to a greater extent and at an
13 U. S. Surgeon General's Office, Love, A. G. and Davenport, C. B., Defects Found in
Drafted Men, 1919. See especially sections on states and sectional areas, pp. 84-194, 207-273,
348-385. Unfortunately the wealth of material in this large volume is given little
interpretation except from a medical point of view.
[ 619 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
earlier age among persons living and working in what must be regarded
as low social and economic conditions than among people in a more
favorable environment. This point has been touched upon in the preceding
paragraph but is presented here from this somewhat more particularized
angle to put it into its proper setting. British occupational mortality
data clearly point to differential death rates according to social classes.14
American studies have established a definite association between pellagra
and economic status (as affecting certain dietary essentials), tuberculosis
TABLE 4. — MORTALITY FROM ALL CAUSES AND RATIO OF MALE TO FEMALE DEATH RATE,
IN THE AGE PERIOD 55-64 YEARS, IN 34 STATES, 1920°
State
All
ages*
Ratio of male
to female death
rate, ages 55-64
State
All
ages*
Ratio of male
to female death
rate, ages 55-64
Colorado
14.
1 14
Utah
12 1
1 42
Rhode Island
Delaware
New York
Michigan
Pennsylvania
13.
IS.
13.
13.
13.
1.20
1.18
1.13
1.07
1.11
Ohio
Missouri
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
12.0
11.9
11.7
11.5
11.4
1.09
1.16
1.06
1.29
1.03
New Jersey
Massachusetts
13.2
13.0
1.18
1.12
Washington
Oregon
11.1
11.0
1.13
1.21
Connecticut
13.0
1.12
Louisiana
11.0
1.32
Maryland
12.8
1.14
Kentucky
10.9
1.00
12 6
1 12
10 9
1 11
12 6
1 30
10 6
1 14
12 4
1 04
10 6
1 06
South Carolina
12 4
1 11
Kansas
10 5
92
12 3
1 07
10 3
1 34
New Hampshire
12 2
1 10
9 8
1 26
Indiana
12 1
1 06
Nebraska
9 7
1 02
a U. S. Bureau of the Census, Mortality Statistic*.
b Adjusted to a standard age distribution.
and economic status as well as an association between mortality and
industrial hazards like exposure to certain inorganic dusts and poisoning
by lead, etc. Furthermore, infant mortality is definitely associated with
the lack of intelligence, improper care and inadequate diet, all of which
are characteristic of the poorer parts of the population.15 As yet of un-
determined importance are the rapid cultural changes that have occurred
in the past century. The thinking and acting, not merely of the people
as a whole, but of its various racial groups, in various areas, in various
"social" or socio-economic classes, have altered profoundly. These
changes are due to many causes, the most potent of which came with the
14 Great Britain, General Register Office, Registrar General's Decennial Supplement,
England and Wales, 1921, Part II, Occupational Mortality, Fertility and Infant Mortality,
London, 1927; See R. H. Britten's excellent summary of this document in the United
States Public Health Reports, June 22, 1927, vol. 42, no. 48, pp. 1565-1616.
15 See also Chap. XV.
[ 620 ]
VITALITY
machine age. They are manifested in ways such as an increased and
standardized consumption and a lessened individual art in production,
in a multiplication of desires, in manifold experiences, and in a sort and
degree of sophistication never before attained. Undoubtedly these have
changed habits and modes of living in ways that affect the mental and
physical status of the population and the duration of life.
With the foregoing discussion in mind, what interpretation can be
placed on the trends in mortality indicated by the data previously pre-
sented ? Are they signs of changes in the vitality of the American people ?
m '28.- 176.
[H I 77. -2OO.
5 2O I. -223.
H 224. -424.
RATIO PER I.OOO MEN
TOTAL CAMPS AND LOCAL BOARDS
FIG. 10. — Prevalence of defects of all kinds among men drafted for the World War, by
states. (From Love and Davenport. See footnote 13.)
According to one view improvements in medical science and in public
health activities, as well as in general conditions of living, have prolonged
the lives of "weaker" children into adult years. Such persons, as they
approach the limit of their natural or inherited vitality, die and their
deaths increase the mortality rate of the middle age group of the general
population. Improvements in the environment merely give such individ-
uals a better chance to live out the days allotted to them by heredity.
An important implication of this line of reasoning, recognized by its
proponents, is that a larger and larger proportion of the population
is composed of the "weaklings" whose lives have been prolonged and
that, as a result, the trend of the vitality of the people, however it may
appear when expressed in some average form, must be inevitably down-
[ 621 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ward. This interpretation, which has been emphasized by Pearson and
others of the so-called "genetic school," is based upon the assumption
that the individual's actual survival — not necessarily his capacity to
survive — is primarily, if not wholly, determined by inheritance.
Another implication of this genetic argument frequently put forward
is that a shorter lived and less "vital" race is being bred. Various reasons
are advanced in support of this theory. One is that since a larger number
of persons are surviving into the younger adult years — between twenty
and forty, or the reproductive period of life — and since the span of life
in some measure at least is an inherited characteristic, the prolongation
of the lives of persons with relatively low vitality gives an increasing
number of them an opportunity to procreate. Since, according to the
laws of inheritance propounded by Mendel and others, some of their
progeny will be short lived, not only is the portion of the population with
relatively low vitality thereby increased but additional potential pro-
genitors of future generations with low vitality are added to the popula-
tion. Other conditions may also contribute, theoretically at least, to the
same result. The increasing mobility of individuals reduces the likelihood
of inbreeding in communities and thereby lessens the possibility of pre-
serving the long lived stock. Under conditions prevailing before the
steam and electric railways, automobiles and airplane travel, inbreeding
within a community was of necessity greater than now because of the
smaller opportunity for individuals to mate with other individuals in or
from other communities. If it be true that the less hardy were killed off
by disease and exposure at early ages and at greater rate in the older era
than now, the stronger and long lived had naturally to choose mates from
among persons who possessed a marked vitality. Again, it may be sug-
gested that the stream of immigrants from Europe which rapidly
increased until 1915 provided an assortment of progenitors varying con-
siderably in vitality. As the opportunity to "fuse" with the immigrants
or their immediate descendants was afforded, some cross breeding between
the "original" hardy stock and the newcomers has taken place.
The opposed interpretation is that the decline of mortality in the
younger age groups is due to general preventive efforts that are, in effect,
similar to the prevention of accidents as ordinarily understood. On the
other hand, the increase in the death rate in the older ages is alleged to
be the result of a failure to prevent deaths due to certain hazards of the
modern environment affecting older persons adversely. Using the analogy
of accidents the proponents of this interpretation argue that most
diseases which killed children and young adults in large numbers a
generation or so ago (and still kill too great a proportion of them) are
not, biologically, to be regarded as a real indication of vitality. On the
contrary the victims, or at least most of them, possessed as much vitality
[ 622 ]
VITALITY
as those who by chance escaped. As William H. Welch16 recently ex-
pressed it, those dying of infectious and other diseases peculiar to the
young are just as much victims of accidents as are the thirty-odd thousand
persons who are killed annually in automobile accidents. This argument is
carried even further by advocates of public health and preventive
medicine who say that if the vitality of an increasing number of indi-
viduals is being conserved and an increase in the number of persons with
good and undamaged vitality is thereby being brought about, the result
eventually will be longer lives generally rather than shorter. Obviously
the hypotheses upon which this interpretation is based involve the
assumption that susceptibility to infections is in no way associated with
vitality. That is to say, a given disease such as typhoid, tuberculosis or
diphtheria, does not select individuals who possess low vitality but those
who are attacked are victims of circumstances like accidental contacts
with ill persons or the carriers of the disease. Certain questions of fact are
also involved. Little definite information is yet available on a very
pertinent point. What is the duration of life among persons attacked by a
given disease as compared with that of persons not so attacked ? Another
matter is the importance to be given to immunity acquired by mild
attacks which is undoubtedly favorable to longevity. Again, the nature
of the disease must be taken into account. The main thesis of the purely
environmental view, however, is clear. In explanation of the rising
mortality in the older ages, its supporters say (1) that an insufficient
interval has elapsed for those damaged by the conditions of early life,
including infectious diseases, to die off, and (2) that possibly the strain
of "high geared" work and life in the modern era may be in part responsi-
ble for the increasing mortality in the later adult years.
These interpretations reflect clearly two diametrically opposed points
of view. The real crux of the problem may best be expressed interroga-
tively. Has any diminution in vitality in its strict biological sense taken
place? To what extent and in what direction are efforts to conserve
vitality worth wile? If justified, are present efforts adequate? If they
are not yet adequate, along what lines should one proceed to make them
more effective? In discussing these problems we shall first deal with the
environmental approach at some length and then turn to the genetic
aspects of trends of mortality.
III. CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TRENDS
IN MORTALITY
It would be futile to attempt any consideration of these questions
without some understanding of the historical background. This back-
16 Remarks as chairman of the Advisory Council of the Milbank Memorial Fund at its
annual meeting, April, 1931.
[ 623 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ground is given elsewhere in this report, particularly in those chapters deal-
ing with economic and social conditions, population, urbanization, immi-
gration, the welfare of children, the family and cultural changes generally.
The more pertinent points may be briefly summarized here as follows :
1. The first half of the nineteenth century was a period characterized
by the rapid growth of urban communities which drew people from the
rural areas of Great Britain, northwestern Europe and the United
States.17 Conditions of living and working were particularly unfavorable
to the maintenance of health. The standard of social responsibility,
especially on the part of industrial leaders, was low.18
2. During the latter half of the nineteenth century and perhaps the
first decade of the twentieth century extraordinary changes took place
in the mobility of the population.19 The immigration was of different
origin from that of the previous period. There were striking developments
in mechanical methods of production, distribution and transportation.
During this period the standard of social responsibility, although it had
somewhat improved, was still low when judged by the standards of today.
3. The past twenty or thirty years have been characterized by
marked improvements in the standards of living and conditions of labor.20
There has been an increasing sense of social responsibility. Extraordinary
developments have taken place in sanitation, medicine and methods of
controlling infectious and some other diseases and marked progress in
modes of communication so that public education in matters relating to
health has been made easier as information has increased.
As far as possible effects upon the health of the population are con-
cerned, probably the most direct manifestation of this cultural change is
in attitudes toward the conservation of life and health and in habits of
everyday life. The machine age may have imposed standardized patterns
on work, styles and materials, as well as other things, but it has brought
about a more even distribution of improved standards of housing,
factory work and urban living generally. Furthermore, it has made
possible a more diversified diet. Greater leisure is possible and more
time is actually spent in recreation. The individual has greater freedom
even though at the expense of the family as a unit. Community care of
children, probably more efficient than that attainable in many families,
has become possible.
The role of medicine and public health in these changes has been
summarized succinctly by Theobald Smith21 as follows: "Civilization
17 On the concentration of population see Chap. IX.
18 On economic maladjustments and medical needs, see Chap. XXI.
19 For a discussion of the increasing mobility of population, see Chap. IV.
20 See data on standard of living of workingmen in Chap. XVI.
21 Smith, Theobald, "The Decline of Infectious Diseases in its Relation to Modern
Medicine," The Journal of Preventive Medicine, September, 1928, vol. II, no. 5.
[ 624 1
VITALITY
from the medical aspect may be defined as the maintenance of any
increasingly dense population with a falling death rate in spite of free
intercourse. Taking this definition as a base we are safe in saying that
without the steady development of medical science and practice civiliza-
tion would have been unable to move forward. In every detail of individual
and communal life medical science has formulated protective devices to
maintain health, largely by the suppression of infection. Without the
constant application of medical and preventive safeguards the human
race could not sustain itself. If it should drop to the level of animals in
this respect, and throw safeguards to the winds its fate would be reduc-
tion to animal destiny in population or even worse, unless the race
segregated itself into non-communicating groups and each one allowed
the existing viruses to burn themselves out, as it were. The number of
diseases scattered over the globe is so great that free inter-communication
on the animal level might bring so many to bear on the race as to make
impossible its struggle against other natural injurious agencies."
As it is impossible to recount here in any detail the development of
sanitation, medicine and control of disease, we shall have to content
ourselves with a few glimpses which will reveal in somewhat sharp relief
the more significant changes that have taken place.22 The modern dweller
in the cities and towns of this country must have a broad historical per-
spective in order to grasp the extraordinary sanitary changes that have
taken place in the past century and even in the last fifty years. In some-
what less degree modes and standards of living, particularly in those
aspects associated with health, have also been profoundly altered in
most rural areas. The striking changes can best be pictured in a few
diagrams (Figures 11, 12 and 13) and by a few passages of description.
Stephen Smith has written23 that until 1866 "Smallpox, scarlet fever,
measles, diphtheria, were domestic pestilences with which the people
were so familiar that they regarded them as necessary features of child-
hood. Malarial fevers . . . were regularly announced in the autumnal
months as having appeared with their ' usual severity.' The * white plague,'
or consumption, was the common inheritance of the poor and rich alike.
"With the immigrant came typhus and typhoid fevers, which resist-
lessly swept through the tenement houses, decimating the poverty-
stricken tenants. At intervals, the great oriental plague, Asiatic cholera,
swooped down upon the city with fatal energy and gathered its enormous
harvest of dead. Even * yellow fever,' the great pestilence of the tropics,
made occasional incursions . . .
"Failure to improve the unhealthy conditions of the city, and the
tendency to aggravate them by a large increase of the tenement-house
22 Compare with Chap. XXI.
23 Smith, Stephen, M. D., The City That Was, New York, 1911, pp. 19-20
f 625 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
RATE PER IOO.OOO POPULATION
20O
IOO -
I860 1870 I860
RATE PER IOO.OOO POPULATION
1890 I90O
1910
I92O I93C
200
I 00
DIPTHERIA
1850 I860 1870 1680 1690 1900
RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
2OO
IOO -
1910
1920 I93C
O
1850 I860 1870 I860 1890
RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
1900 1910 1920
1930
5OO
400
300
ZOO
IOO
PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS
. MASSACHUSETTS
— — — REGISTRATION AREA
1850
I860
1870
I860
1690
1900
1910 1920
1930
FIG. 11. — Trend of mortality from typhoid fever, diphtheria, scarlet fever, and pulmonary
tuberculosis in Massachusetts, 1850 to 1920.
[ 626 ]
VITALITY
MALE
FEMALE
Deaths per 100.000 Population
300
200
100
TUBERCULOSIS
O 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CO
AGE
Deaths per 100,000 Population
300
/—I900\ /''
X.-,'
200
100
0 10 20 30 40 5O 60 70 80
AGE
Deaths per 100,000 Population
1,5001
i.OOO
500
0
CANCER
192
Deaths per 100.000 Population
1,500
1,000
500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 60
A6C
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 , 70 80
AGE
Deaths per 100,000 Population
s per
so
200
ISO
100
50
DIABETES
1929-
Oeaths per 100.000 Population
H250
1929
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 60
AGE
200
ISO
100
50
0 10 20
40 50 60 70 60
AGE
Deaths
s per 100,000 Population
1,500
1,000
500
CEREBRAL HEMORRHAGE
(1900 INCLUDES SOFTENING) Deaths per 100,000 Population
I 2.000
1929-
1900
1,929-7-
1.500
1,000
500
O I020304O90607080
AGE
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
AGE
FIG. 12. — Death rates among males and females of different ages from tuberculosis,
cancer, diabetes and cerebral hemorrhage in the original registration area in 1900 and 1929.
627
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
MALE
Deaths per 100,000 Population
e.ooo
] [
HEART
FEMALE
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
192
O 10 20 30 40 50 6O 70 60
AGE
Deaths per 100.000 Population
16.000
1929
O IO 2O 3O 4O 5O GO 7O 80
AGE
Deaths per 100,000 Population
PNEUMONIA
Deaths per 100.000 Population
I.4OO
1,200
0 10 20 30 40 50 6O 70 80
Deaths per 100,000 Population
1,500
1.000
5OO
0
Depths per 100.000 Population
I.50O
- l.OOO
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
AGE.
Deaths per 100,000 Population
600
0 10 20
ACCIDENTS
600
400-
200-
=^"<I92I
AGE
Deaths per 100.000 Population
600
1929-^400
200
^1921
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
AGE
0 10 20 30 40 5O 6O 70 SO
AGE
FIG. 12A. — Death rates among males and females of different ages from heart disease,
pneumonia, nephritis and accidents, in the original registration area in 1900 and 1929.
(In some cases 1921 is used instead of 1900 on account of changes in the classification of
causes of death.)
628 ]
VITALITY
population, offensive trades, accumulations of domestic waste, and the
filth of streets, stables, and privy pits, then universal, causes an enormous
sacrifice of life, especially among children." Dr. Smith shows that the
death rate for the five years preceding 1866 averaged 38 in 1,000 popula-
tion. Today the death rate is around 12 per 1,000. A death rate of 38
per 1,000 in 1932 would mean about 275,000 deaths in New York City.
Actually there will be something like 80,000 to 85,000. In 1848, during a
cholera epidemic in New York, the Sanitary Committee of the City
Board of Health wrote: "The labors of your committee, during the past
RATE PER
100 M
W 500-
0 u
n
n
4OO-
30O-
200-
IOO-
O
PER
CENT
60-
40-
2.O-
•MORTALITY FROM
TUBERCULOSIS
ACCUTE INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
'RATE OF POPULATION
INCREASE
„ ^DENSITY OF
*• POPULATION
RATE PER
IOOM
-800
-coo
-4OO
-200
POP. PER
SO..MILE
-25,OOO
-20,000
- 1 5,000
-10,000
- 5,000
o
n
1600 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 I860 1870 I860 1890 1900 1910 1920
INFLUX FROM LARGE IMMI- ECONOMIC RAPID INDUSTRIAL
RURAL ORATION FROM DEPRESSION GROWTH
SECTIONS EUROPE AFTER
CIVIL WAR
FIG. 13. — A graphic presentation of the association in time of mortality from tuber-
culosis, acute infectious diseases, rate of population increase and density of population,
in Baltimore, 1910-1920. (Based on data from Howard, Public Health Administration and
the Natural History of Disease in Baltimore, Maryland, 1797-1920.)
appalling season of sickness and death, and the awful scenes of degrada-
tion, misery, and filth developed to them by their researches, have
brought into full view the fact that we have no sanitary police worthy of
the name; that we are unprotected by that watchful regard over the
public health which common sense dictates to be necessary for the security
of our lives, the maintenance of the city's reputation, and the preserva-
tion of the interest of the inhabitants."24 "This," commented a speaker
before a legislative committee nearly twenty years later, "is a perfectly
truthful statement of the present condition of New York." He then
proceeded to describe the conditions prevailing in 1865 as follows:
24 Ibid., p. 144.
[ 629 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
"Smallpox ... is at this moment an epidemic in New York. In two
days' time, the inspectors found 644 cases, and in two weeks, upward of
1,200; and it was estimated that only about one-half were discovered. In
many large tenant-houses, six, eight, and ten cases were found at the same
time ... It was in the street cars, in the stages, in the hacks, on the
ferry-boats, in junk-shops, in cigar-stores, in candy-shops, in the families
of tailors and seamstresses, who were making clothing for wholesale
stores, in public and in private charities."25
"Typhus is greatly aggravated by domestic filth, and by over-
crowding, with deficient ventilation. The inspectors found and located by
street and number no less than 2,000 cases of this most contagious and
fatal disease. Commencing in a large tenant-house in Mulberry Street, it
was traced from locality to locality, in the poorer quarter, until it was
found to have visited nearly every section of the city. It became localized
in many tenant-houses and streets, where it still remains, causing a large
amount of sickness and mortality.
"At Mulberry Street, in a notoriously filthy house, it has existed for
more than four years. This house has a population of about 320, which
is renewed every few months. During the period alluded to, there have
been no less than 60 deaths by fever in this single house, and 240 cases."26
The contrast between the prevalence of certain infectious diseases
in an American city of the middle of the nineteenth century and one of the
present time is so striking as to be almost unbelievable. Typhoid fever,
smallpox, measles, scarlet fever, diphtheria, malaria, whooping cough —
these formed a group of diseases which occurred in epidemics regularly
and which took turns in keeping the gross mortality rate high. In fact,
one of the most marked characteristics of the earlier time was the wide
variation in the annual death rates. For instance, in Chicago in the decade
1850-1859, scarlet fever showed a maximum mortality rate of 272 per
100,000 and a minimum of 6. A comparison of the maximal rates since
1850 with those of the last decade is given below for some of the com-
municable diseases:
Chicago
Death rates per 100,000
population
Chicago
Death rates per 100,000
population
Highest
rate since
1850
Highest rate
in the last
decade
Highest
rate since
1850
Highest rate
in the last
decade
Typhoid fever
174
230
80
272
2
0.5
7
7
Whooping cough
92
291
603
106
6
24
81
0.2
Measles
Diarrhea and dysentery. .
25 Ibid., p. 108. Cf. New York Times, March 13, 1865.
26 Ibid., p. 113.
f 630 1
VITALITY
The highest death rate from all causes in Chicago during this period was
in 1854 when the rate was 64 per 1,000. There were 4,217 deaths out of a
population of 65,000. That rate in Chicago today, with its population of
3,500,000 would mean 225,000 deaths annually— half the number swept
away in the whole of the United States by the influenza epidemic of
1918.27
Sanitation and purification of water and milk supplies were important
factors in bringing about the great changes noted but, in the opinion of
many, they do not entirely account for the transformation. C.-E. A.
Winslow in a careful study of public health in New Haven during the
past half century found that the death rate declined from 18.2 to 12.5.
The decrease in five causes, namely pulmonary tuberculosis, diphtheria,
typhoid fever, scarlet fever and infant diarrhea accounted for 92 percent
of this total net reduction. As a proponent of public health efforts he
remarks that "how these decreases have been accomplished, we can say
with considerable definiteness," and continues as follows: "Typhoid fever
has been controlled chiefly by the purification of water supplies, the
pasteurization of milk, and the use of vaccine; diphtheria, by the use of
antitoxin, and more recently by toxin-antitoxin immunization; scarlet
fever by isolation and very recently by serum treatment; diarrhea, by
pasteurization of milk and breast feeding of infants. In the case of
tuberculosis, the causal relationships are less well established. Discussion
of the reasons for the decreasing death rate from this disease offer a happy
hunting ground for the mystics who from time to time seek to substitute
vague cosmic tendencies for more obviously apparent causes. The state-
ment that the fall in the tuberculosis rate has been a continuous process
irrespective of public health activities is, however, simply untrue. The
sharp and sudden decrease began about 1890 when the anti-tuberculosis
campaign began and not before; it has taken place in countries where
there has been an organized anti-tuberculosis campaign and not in other
countries. Some part of the decrease is without doubt due to improved
economic status since everything which affects physical well-being affects
this disease. There was, however, improvement in economic status before
1890 but it was accompanied by no such spectacular results as have since
accrued from a combination of improved economic status and organized
public health work."28
The Negroes, a separate and relatively homogeneous race living in the
same localities with the white population but obviously in a less favorable
environment, have a much higher mortality rate than the whites.29 It
27 Chicago, Department of Health, Chronological Summary of Chicago Mortality, 1843-
1903, Chicago, 1902, and Chicago, Department of Health, Report for 1926-1921-1928—
1929-1930, Chicago, 1931.
28 Winslow, C.-E. A., Chap. VIII in Whither Mankind, edited by Charles A. Beard,
New York, 1928, pp. 187-207; cit. quot. p. 189.
29 On Negro and white death rates, see Chap. I.
[ 631 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
will be pointed out later that certain racial differences appear to exist
with respect to susceptibility and resistance to certain diseases. But it is
of interest to note that the death rate among Negroes is relatively higher
in cities than in rural areas as compared with white rates, even after taking
into account differences in age composition. Again, both white and colored
rates are higher in southern than in northern cities; both white and colored
rates are higher in northern than in southern rural areas; and the higher
rural rates in the north are more marked for the colored than the white
race. The age specific rates indicate that tuberculosis is the principal
reason for the high mortality among the rural colored in the northern
states, since the high colored rural rate for all ages is due to the excessively
high rates for the early middle age groups.30 Two further observations are
pertinent: (1) a study of the trends in mortality from specific causes
showed some differences for the two races31 and (2) that when infants
of both races were given similar supervision and diet, the mortality rate
was about the same, whereas under uncontrolled conditions the Negro
infant mortality was greatly in excess of the white.32
A wholly dispassionate interpretation of these changes in terms of
effects upon vitality is difficult. There can be no question that efforts to
control certain diseases have resulted in a reduction in mortality from
these diseases. It is also evident that social, economic and cultural
changes, especially during the past quarter century, are correlated with
the decline in the death rate of the younger age groups.33 But until rigid
scientific tests are applied, one must withhold judgment as to the causal
relationships that are now too generally proclaimed.
IV. GENETIC ASPECTS OF TRENDS IN MORTALITY
The suggestion that the increase in the death rate of persons over
fifty years of age is due wholly or in part to a deterioration of vitality
raises a question of profound importance. Are the American people
breeding a stock with a lower inherited capacity to survive ? It is not yet
30 Sydenstricker and Gover, op. cit.
31 Sydenstricker and Gover point out that ** (a) Pulmonary tuberculosis has declined
a little more rapidly among the white than the colored; (6) the acute pulmonia diseases
have almost certainly declined more rapidly among the whites, although the colored
rate has also decreased; (c) cardio-renal diseases are increasing and probably faster
among the colored; (d) cancer is increasing with no observable difference between the
rate of increase for white and colored; (e) during the last 20 years mortality from scarlet
fever and diphtheria among whites has been less than it was during the 20 years preceding,
while there has been no decrease in mortality from measles or whooping cough; among the
colored the average death rate from diphtheria and whooping cough, 1905-1924, is less
than it was for 1885-1904, but measles and scarlet fever have not decreased."
32 Knox, J. H. M., Jr., and Powers, Grover F., "Effectiveness of Infant Welfare Clinics
from a Medical Point of View," Journal of the American Medical Association, March 11,
1922, vol. 78, no. 10, pp. 707-710.
33 For further details on the medical care of children, see Chap. XV.
[ 632 1
VITALITY
possible to give a strictly scientific answer to this question. The best that
can be done is to consider, as impartially as we may, the available evidence
that has a more or less direct bearing on the matter. The available evi-
dence of scientific character, however, is very slight. Though vast in
quantity the literature of the subject is either philosophically speculative
or full of preachments and alarums that are of thin texture — a few threads
of fact interwoven with some reasoning and much argument. It would
profit little, even if there were space, to review the flood of opinions,
philosophizings and semi-popular discussions, although reference to their
factual bases is obviously pertinent.
The data essential for a definite answer to the question would include
a series of records of vitality, in the strict biological meaning of the term,
over a considerable number of generations for the various groups that
compose our population, together with accurate information as to the
extent and nature of the cross breeding of persons with varying inherit-
ances of longevity, constitutional stock, and capacity to cope with or
take advantage of environmental conditions. This is a large order and,
except for the evidence that individuals probably do differ somewhat
with respect to the inheritance of longevity, it has not been filled as yet
either by recorders of human history or by scientific inquiries. There are,
however, certain aspects of the genetic phase of the subject which have
been seriously discussed and on which some data having an indirect
bearing are relevant and suggest reasonable hypotheses if not tentative
conclusions.
In the first place, the purely genetic view of the ultimate results of
"interfering with" the process of "natural" selection by reduction of
infant mortality and by prolonging the lives of constitutionally weak
individuals into the reproductive period deserves consideration in any
attempt to interpret the rise in the death rates at older ages. This view is a
challenge to the basic soundness of efforts to conserve vitality. It is not
unfair to state that the elaborate and dispassionate studies made to test
the validity of this view by comparing the mortality rates of successive
cohorts of children following reductions in infant deaths have been
inconclusive so far.34 On the other hand, all evidence points to the fact that
relatively little decrease has occurred in the infant death rate from the
34 For example: Crum, Frederick S., "The Effect of Infant Mortality on the After Life-
time of Survivors," Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Meeting of the American Child
Health Association, Section on Infant Hygiene, October 11-18, 1920. The author himself,
after an exhaustive analysis of Dutch statistics that were peculiarly well suited to the
purpose of the study, pointed out the inconclusiveness of his results. Obviously such data
cannot yield other than inconclusive results for the reason that efforts to reduce infant
mortality are almost always contemporaneous with efforts to prevent disease among
older children, and are continued in some measure into the later years of the infants. A
scientifically "controlled" situation is not afforded by mere statistics of births and deaths;
more exact and specific data are necessary.
[ 633 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
so-called "early infancy" causes; practically all of the reduction has
actually been brought about from causes that may be considered "acci-
dental," chiefly communicable and intestinal diseases. This fact is so
well known that it is unnecessary to reproduce the familiar statistics. In
spite of all efforts to prolong the lives of morons, imbeciles and idiots,
they still fail to survive at the same rate as "normal" persons35 (Figure
14), especially in pre-reproductive ages. The higher death rate among single
persons of marriageable age than among the married warrants the infer-
ence that many constitutionally inferior and defective persons do not
reproduce. Nature still selects, even though we are horrified by such
examples as the Jukes. It cannot be assumed that all infants who die from
"preventable" or "accidental" causes are as constitutionally strong as
SURVIVORS AT SACH AGE
AT BIRTH IO to 9O 4O SO
t.ooo
SURVIVORS AT CACH AQC.
AT BIBTH IO SO SO 40 SO GO
t.ooo
FIG. 14. — Number surviving at different ages from each 1,000 male and female idiots,
imbeciles and morons born, compared with male and female survivors in the population
of Massachusetts. (From Dayton, Doering, Hilferty, Maher, and Dolan. See footnote 35.)
those who do not die; it is logical to assume that at least some of these
infants possessed less vitality than those who were attacked by disease
and pulled through. On the other hand, prevention of disease may be
regarded as prevention of damage to the vitality of the constitutionally
strong. From the historical point of view there is no evidence that the
decline in infant mortality is in any way associated with the increased
death rate at older ages. The entirely contrary fact is clearly evident: that
the death rate at older ages was increasing long before any considerable
reduction in infant or child mortality began to be manifested, and the
downward trend in the death rate among persons 5—39 years of age has
been fairly synchronous with the upward trend in mortality among
persons over 50 years of age for as long a period as we have records in
38 Dayton, Neil A., Doering, Carl R., Hifferty, Margaret M., Maher, Helen C., and
Dolan, Helen H., "Mortality and Expectation of Life in Mental Deficiency in Massachu-
setts— Analysis of the Fourteen-year Period, 1917-1930." New England Journal of Medicine,
vol. 206, nos. 11 and 12, March 17 and 24, 1932, pp. 555-570, 616-631.
[ 634]
VITALITY
this country. (Figures 3, 4, 5.) At least, a causal relationship between
interference with natural selection through death of infants and children
and the increased mortality of older persons has not yet been demonstated.
No consideration of the purely biological factors involved in changes in
vitality would be complete without reference to the significance of differ-
ential fertilities according to social class. The subject is too intricate for
adequate discussion here, but a brief comment may be made. It has been
repeatedly shown by various studies36 that the so-called "lower" urban
classes have a higher fertility than the "upper" urban classes. It has also
been shown that certain mortality and sickness rates and the proportions
of individuals affected by some organic impairments37 are higher for the
lower classes than for the upper. Furthermore, it appears that the gross
contribution to the population, by reason of their larger numbers and
higher fertility, is greater from the lower social classes than from the
upper. The conclusion drawn by some from these three facts is that the
vitality of the population is gradually deteriorating, and various eugenic
movements have been initiated for this reason. Yet it is pertinent to
point out that in a country such as the United States, where no rigid
caste system has been established, any one social class is continually
being recruited from others and intermarriage of individuals from different
social classes is constantly going on. The "successful" professional or
business man, for example, frequently is the son of parents who ordinarily
would be classed as in a relatively low social group. It is a common
observation also that families rise and fall in spite of the fact that the
children of parents in higher social classes tend to become fixed in those
classes by reason of inherited wealth, education and social environment.
To what extent these changes occur is a matter about which practically
no scientific information exists and it is impossible to draw any conclusion
whatsoever about the effect of differential fertility according to social
class in lowering the vitality of the population.
It is pertinent to consider in somewhat more detail a question that
has been widely discussed for many years, namely, the effects of the
changing racial composition of the population due to changes in the
sources of immigration. Here again the impartial and careful student
meets with difficulties that are well nigh insuperable. For the net effect
of changes in the vitality due to increments of "new" stock to the Ameri-
can population through immigration has never been evaluated and
probably never can be measured accurately for the simple reason that we
36 For example: Ogburn, W. F. and Tibbitts, Clark, "Birth Rates and Social Classes,"
Social Forces, September, 1929, vol. VIII, pp. 1-10; Pearl, Raymond, "Differential
Fertility," The Quarterly Review of Biology, vol. II, no. 1, March, 1927, pp. 108-118;
Sydenstricker, Edgar and Notestein, Frank W., "Differential Fertility According to Social
Class," Journal of the American Statistical Association, March, 1930, vol. XXV, pp. 9-32.
37 Reference will be made to differential sickness and impairment rates later.
r 635 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
cannot know the constitutional type of immigrants in the past any more
exactly than we know that of the peoples from which they come. Differ-
ences in environment obscure differences in constitution in the countries of
origin just as they do in the country to which they go. It has been said,
somewhat grandiloquently, that the United States is a vast racial experi-
ment— a melting pot of races from which the student and the statesman
ought to learn something about the various racial values as they come
from the crucible in the form of human alloys of varying composition.
The melting pot is here and fusion is in process, but it is necessary to
know what is being put into it as well as to be able to test what comes
out of it before its product can be appraised. All of this knowledge is
lacking and the student is compelled to rely upon facts that are of rather
vague meaning and to be content with very general and gross conclusions.
In order to arrive at an intelligent understanding of the effect of
immigration upon the vitality of the American people, it is necessary to
keep in mind the historical background already referred to. For the sake
of brevity38 a summary table (Table 5) is added here which indicates the
principal changes in sources of immigration for the last hundred years.
It is important to emphasize three facts that have a special bearing at
this point. The first is that all available evidence points to a selection —
whether natural or artificial or both — of relatively ambitious and physi-
cally strong persons from the countries of origin. In the early days more
than usual hardihood was required to embark across the ocean and brave
the uncertainties of survival in a new and raw country and something
more than a mere spirit of adventure was required in later days. To this
"natural" selection was added artificial selection by the enactment of
laws and regulations relating to the physical and mental conditions of the
immigrant, beginning in 1882 and becoming more and more strict with the
years. The second fact is that in all periods of our history the immigrant
has had to live and work under the least favorable conditions with the
added handicap of having to adjust himself to a new physical and social
environment.39 The third fact is that the disparity in living conditions as
38 Detailed records of the number of immigrants coming annually from different coun-
tries are available in the Annual Reports of the Commissioner General, U. S. Bureau of
Immigration, and the number of foreign born by country of birth at decennial intervals
are, of course, given in the reports of the census. For data on the latter, see Chap. XI.
39 Limitations of space preclude even a summarization of the voluminous data on the
relatively poorer economic status, unfavorable standards of living, and hazards of work
under which immigrants have lived in the United States. The reader is referred particularly
to the wealth of information on this subject contained in the Reports of the U. S. Immigra-
tion Commission published in 1911 (U. S. Congress 61 Cong. 4 Sess., Senate Docs., Reports of
the U. S. Immigration Commission, 1911, 41 vols.; also Abstracts of same, 2 vols.), and to the
Annual Reports of the Massachusetts State Department of Health during the period
1867-1890 and the Boston Health Department, Annual Reports, 1874-1876, for discus-
sions of the relation between the death rate of the Irish immigrants and their families
and their conditions of living in a much earlier period.
[ 636 1
VITALITY
well as other environmental factors between natives and immigrants was
far greater in the first half of the nineteenth century than later. This
difference existed in a greater degree in the towns and cities in which the
immigrants were concentrated than in rural areas. The differences were
most pronounced with respect to conditions directly affecting health,
especially sanitation, water supply, food, housing and congestion and
protection against epidemics. Thus the earlier immigrants — the British,
Irish and Germans — came mostly from rural areas and congregated
chiefly in the American cities whose growth was too rapid to provide even
the facilities for protection of health then known. This fact probably
explains the curious phenomenon that in the period 1868-1895 the death
TABLE 5. — IMMIGRANTS FROM CERTAIN COUNTRIES SHOWN AS PERCENTAGES OF TOTAL
IMMIGRATION, BY DECADES, 1820 TO 1920a
Years
United
Kingdom
Germany
Scandi-
navia
Italy
Austria-
Hungary
Russia
Total, 100 years
24.7
16.5
6.4
12.4
12.3
10.0
1820-29
60 7
4 5
2
3
1830-39
45 5
23 2
4
4
1
1840-49
61 3
27.0
9
1
04
1850-59 . . .
52.6
34.7
.9
.3
02
1860-69
1870-79
1880-89
1890-99
46.6
36.5
28.3
19.9
35.2
27.4
27.5
15.7
4.6
7.6
12.8
10.6
.5
1.7
5.1
16.3
.2
2.2
6.0
14.5
.2
1.7
3.8
12.2
1900-09
9 9
4 0
6 0
23 5
24 4
18 3
1910-19
8.5
2.7
3.8
19.4
18.2
17.4
Compiled from Annual Report of the Commissioner of Immigration, 1920.
rates in Massachusetts, for example, rose and fell almost synchronously
with the variations in industrial activity and, of course, with the flow and
ebb of immigration (Figure 15), a correlation that in later years failed to
manifest itself.
The assumption of a biological selection of population by means of
immigration cannot be lightly made, however, since it is a matter of ut-
most importance in determining what the trend of vitality of the entire
population has been. It is desirable to consider somewhat critically the
evidence bearing upon the death rates among persons of specific nativities
in the United States and then to summarize some of the available data
on the trend in the death rates among persons of native, mixed and foreign
stock.
From the mass of statistical data on mortality among persons of
different countries of birth living in the United States the study by
f 637 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Dublin and Baker40 has been selected because it is the most comprehen-
sive yet published and because it relates particularly to two of the most
important industrial states — New York and Pennsylvania — at a time
of unusual industrial expansion before the movement to improve working
and living conditions had borne much fruit. This study had for its pri-
mary purpose the determination of racial differences in physical constitu-
tion, and the general conclusion was that "the superior vitality of the
native stock is fully demonstrated as to both sexes." The term "vitality,"
as used by them, means simply the rate of survival. The gross data upon
which this conclusion was based are summarized in Table 6, from which
PERCENTAGE DEVIATION PERCENTAGE DEVIATION
MORTALITY-IMMIGRATION BUSINESS INDEX
+ 50
-1 + 15
MORTALITY
BUSINESS INDEX
_ IMMIGRATION
1870 1675 1880 1885 1890 1695
FIG. 15. — Relative annual deviations from secular trends of mortality from all causes
among males aged 20-29 years in Massachusetts, and of the volume of immigration into
the United States, and Ayre's monthly index of business conditions, 1868-1895.
it is obvious that there were wide differences in death rates among persons
living in these states but born in different countries. These differences are
all the more interesting because they do not appear to the same extent
for the populations of the countries of origin. Thus, the death rates for
Austria and Hungary for persons of comparable age were higher than
for Austro-Hungarian immigrants in the United States; for Italy the
rates were about the same as those for Italians here; for Germany the
rates were lower than for Germans here, particularly for males; for Great
Britain the rates were much lower than for British here; and for Ireland
the rates were strikingly lower than for Irish living in the United States.41
Unless the British, Irish and German immigrants, as a result of some
40 Dublin, L. I. and Baker, Gladden W., "The Mortality of Race Stocks in Pennsylvania
and New York," Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association, March,
1920, New Series, no. 129, pp. 1-12.
41 The comparisons are drawn from Dublin and Baker, op. cit. No data for Russia
were available. It may be observed that Russian (principally Jewish) immigrants had
been accustomed to urban life before emigration.
[ 638 ]
VITALITY
TABLE 6. — DEATH RATES AMONG PERSONS TEN YEARS OF AGE AND OVER OF DIFFERENT
NATIVITIES, IN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA, 1910a
Nativity
Pennsylvania
New York
Males
Females
Males
Females
Native born of native parentage
12.5
18.8
17.5
14.4
13.7
14.5
17.0
16.1
23.6
12.3
16.3
16.0
12.3
12.7
12.9
14.2
16.6
25.9
13.8
19.5
17.3
14.3
13.1
12.6
17.9
15.1
20.5
12.4
15.5
16.2
12.4
12.3
13.7
14.4
15.8
23.5
Native born of foreign or mixed parentage
Foreign born: total
Austro-Hungarian
Russian6
Italian
English, Scotch, Welsh
Irish
0 Adjusted to the age distribution of native born of native parentage in New York State in 1910. From
Dublin and Baker (see footnote 40).
6 Composed mainly of Jews.
process of economic or social selection, represented the constitutionally
weaker elements of the populations from which they came, their higher
mortality rates in the United States must be interpreted as reflecting not
a lower vitality but the effects of conditions under which they lived and
worked here. In other words, an experiment, in effect, was tried of draw-
ing large samples from the rural populations of Great Britain, Ireland and
Germany and placing them in a new environment where they were sub-
jected for many years to the least favorable urban conditions of working
and living in order to see whether or not they could survive as long as
those who were not transplanted. If this hypothesis is true in the main,
the result of the experiment is strikingly clear. The relatively low death
rate of native born persons of native parentage (descended almost en-
tirely from earlier British and German immigrants) who had attained
higher economic and social standards is additional evidence in support
of this explanation.
The fact that death rates of various races from Austria-Hungary and
of Russians (principally Jews) and Italians living in these two states in
1910 were either not lower than those of their countries of origin or not
greatly in excess of the 1910 rates for native born of foreign parentage
probably reflects the shorter period of exposure to unfavorable environ-
ment on the part of these immigrants as contrasted with the longer
experience of the British, Germans and Irish. The higher rates among the
older42 immigrants may properly be explained not only on these grounds
42 It will be recalled that the periods of large immigration from the United Kingdom
and Germany were in 1845-1860, 1865-1875, and 1880-1895, although many Irish also
came after 1900. The newer immigration of Italians, Russians, and Austro-Hungarians
began about 1900.
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Deaths per 100,000 Population
4OO
300
EOO
IOO
MALES
Deaths per 100,000 Population
4OO
3OO
2OO
00
IO 2O
Deaths per 100,000 Population
3OO
3O 40
AGE
5O 6O 7O
80
2OO
100
FEMALES
Deaths per 100,000 Population
3OO
20O
10
2O
30
40
AGE
50
60 70
80
FIG. 16. — Mortality at different ages from pulmonary tuberculosis among males and
females of various countries of birth residing in New York and Pennsylvania in 1910.
(Based on data from Dublin and Baker. See footnote 40.)
[ 640 ]
VITALITY
but also by the fact that the environment to which they were subjected
was far more unfavorable during the early years of their residence in
this country than that to which the newer immigrants were exposed
after 1900.
The significance of this influence of a different and more unfavorable
environment upon the mortality rate of immigrants is illustrated in the
statistics for tuberculosis, a disease that is considered to reflect environ-
mental as well as constitutional factors in a peculiarly sensitive way.
Using Dublin and Baker's data, the age specific tuberculosis death rates
among males and females have been plotted in Figure 16. Here it is seen
that the high rates for the older male immigrants, particularly the Irish,
and for native born males of native parents are in striking contrast from
two points of view to those for the males of people coming later. (1) The
former are higher than the latter taking all ages into account. (2) The
curves for the former reach their peaks in the age period 30—50 years
whereas the latter reach their peaks later in life. A greater susceptibility
to the disease on the part of the older immigrants cannot be assumed in
view of the general similarity of the curves for females. The striking con-
trasts in the shapes of the curves for the males suggests that only the
oldest age groups of the newer immigrants, who had resided in this
country for a considerable time, had suffered from the influence of condi-
tions that break down resistance to the disease. To these there may be
added four other pertinent facts. One is that the newer immigrants were
more mobile than the earlier and when stricken with disease returned to
their own countries more readily. The second is that the height of the
curves for any country of birth are different in the two states and em-
phasize further the differential significance of environmental factors.
A third is that the proportionate mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis
in the entire registration area in 191043 exhibits no such wide contrasts
according to country of birth as shown for New York and Pennsylvania.
(Table 7.) A fourth is derived from the statistics of mortality among
infants with mothers of different nativity residing in New York. East-
man44 has shown, for example, that such differences as appear are due
more to deaths from communicable, respiratory and gastro-intestinal
diseases than to prenatal and other causes peculiar to early infancy,
principally prematurity and congenital defects. "It is not to be wondered
at," said Eastman, "that they are the dominant causes among the foreign-
born population, the majority of whom are poor, illiterate, without knowl-
edge of English and almost wholly ignorant of the elements of modern
43 For this particular year the U. S. Bureau of the Census classified deaths from various
causes according to the country of birth, sex, and age of decedent.
44 N. Y. State Department of Health, Eastman, P. R., A Comparison of the Birth Rates
of Native and Foreign-born White Women in the State of New York During 1916, Bulletin,
vol. 31, no. 4, 1917.
[ 641 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
sanitation and inhabit, as a rule, the most congested districts of the larger
manufacturing centers."
TABLE 7.— PROPORTIONATE MORTALITY FROM PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS AMONG
MALES RESIDING IN THE UNITED STATES, CLASSIFIED BY COUNTRY OF
BIRTH AND AGE, 1910°
Age group
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
United States
41 7
41 0
29 5
15 4
7 7
England and Wales
21 3
34 7
27 6
15 1
7 9
Ireland
42 1
43 2
34 0
21 6
9
Germany
31 8
36 4
26 0
17 5
g
Austria
33 1
33 5
27 4
19 9
11
Hungary
SO 8
30 7
24 2
18 6
15
Italy
26 5
18 7
14 7
11 1
8
Russia
38 2
33 2
23 0
17 2
8
0 Percent due to pulmonary tuberculosis of total deaths exclusive of suicide and accidental causes. Com-
puted from mortality statistics, United States Bureau of the Census, 1911.
It is now possible to consider briefly the trends in the mortality rates
of natives of native parents, natives of foreign parents and foreign born
for the past forty years. Unfortunately the records are not given for each
country of birth. Winslow and Wang45 have presented the mortality
rates for these nativity groups from 1890 to 1920 at quinquennial periods
for persons of different ages in six states (Connecticut, Massachusetts,
New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island) into which
immigration has always been heavy. All these states except New Hamp-
shire have been relatively industrial and urban. The data are shown
graphically in Figure 17 where logarithmic ordinates are used in order to
compare the rate of increase or decrease in mortality for the three nativity
groups. Some of the very interesting and significant facts illustrated may
be summarized as follows: (1) The death rate for persons under 40 years
of age fell most rapidly among natives of foreign parents, less rapidly
among foreign born, and least rapidly among natives.46 The greater
decline for foreign born and natives of foreign born parents, particularly
45 Winslow, C.-E. A. and Wang, P. L., "The Relation Between Changes in Nationality,
Stock and Increasing Death Rates in Adult Life," American Journal of Hygiene, July, 1931,
vol. XIV, pp. 79-88. These authors have suggested that the declining death rate among
foreign born "may be largely due to replacement since 1890 of Irish and German stocks
(characterized by high mortality) by Italian and Russian and other related stocks (char-
acterized by low mortality), without taking into account the possible effects of differences
and of varying changes in environmental conditions."
46 The relatively low rates in this age group for foreign born throughout the period
may be attributed chiefly to the fact that only those foreign born infants were brought in
who had passed the state of high infant mortality (the first month or so of life) and who
were free from infectious diseases at the date of entry.
[ 642 1
VITALITY
the latter, appears to be associated with improvements in public health,
medicine and living conditions. (2) The death rate for the foreign born
in the age groups 40-49 and 50-59 definitely declined, whereas the rates
for native born of foreign parents and for natives of native parents did
not exhibit any downward trend. In fact, the mortality of the immediate
descendants who were over 40 years old actually increased after 1905.
Deaths per 100,000 Population
NATIVE PARENTAGE —
FOREIGN PARENTAGE
FOREIGN BORN
Deaths per 100.000 Population
15
AGE GROUP
4O -49 YEARS
Deaths per 100.000 Population
AGE GROUP
50-59 YEARS
30h —
25
ZO
15
40
IOO
80
1900 1910 I9ZO 1930
1690 1900 1910 1920 1930 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1890 1900 1310 1920 1930
Deaths per 100,000 Population Deaths per 100,000 Population Deaths per IOO,OpOPopulation
2OO
6O-69 YEARS 7O-79 YEARS
-v
5O
150
IOO
90
60
'A/V-
AGE GROUP
SO YEARS
AND OVER
1690 1900 1910 1920 1930
1690 1900 1910 1920 1930
FIG. 17. — Trends in mortality among persons of different nativity age groups in six
states (Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Rhode
Island), 1890-1920. A logarithmic ordinate scale is used. (Based on data from Winslow
and Wang. See footnote 45.)
(3) The general trend of death rates for all three nativity groups over 60
years of age has been upward, particularly among the native born. Thus,
as Winslow and Wang have pointed out, "this increasing mortality (in
adult life), so far as the entire population is concerned, cannot be ex-
plained by changes in immigrant race stock." If the changes in mortality
rates for foreign born are compared for different age groups, as is done in
Figure 18, the older the age group the less encouraging has been the
decline in the death rate. Viewed against the historical background, the
[ 643 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
most plausible interpretation is that for the older foreign born these rates
reflect a vitality damaged by the unfavorable conditions of their early
life in this country. For example, the foreign born aged 60-69 years in
1910 immigrated at the age 20-29 or even 30-39 between 1870 and 1890
when the environment of the immigrant was peculiarly unfavorable, as
indicated by the death rate among foreign born aged 40-49 in 1890 and
by other data already referred to.
Logarithmic Scale
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
FIG. 18. — Trends in mortality among foreign born persons of different ages in six
states (Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Rhode
Island), 1890-1920. The graphs were drawn on logarithmic ordinate scales of the same
magnitude and superimposed at the year 1890. (Based on data from Winslow and Wang.
See footnote 45.)
The available evidence thus points strongly to the conclusion that
environmental conditions account in far greater degree than any consti-
tutional factors for differences in actual achievement in survival among
the racial stocks that have composed the immigration to this country.
There may be, and probably are, constitutional differences that manifest
themselves in a higher susceptibility to disease on the part of one race
stock as compared with another,47 but the evidence on this point is so
47 The relatively high mortality rate of the Irish born resident in the United States,
so frequently remarked upon, should be considered in relation to factors other than possibly
low vitality. The early Massachusetts Board of Health reports contain frequent references
to their extremely unfavorable conditions of living in contrast to those of other immigrants
[ 644 ]
VITALITY
unconvincing as yet that it must be regarded as of relatively little impor-
tance in comparison with the known effects of different conditions of life
and work. At any rate, whatever slight differences in constitution may
exist among the races that have come into the American melting pot,
there is every sign that fusion will be accelerated more than ever before
if any real limitation upon immigration continues. As DePorte48 has
shown, intermarriage between persons of different nativities is increasing
for several reasons, the simplest and most potent of which is that there
are coming to be fewer and fewer persons of any one nativity to mate.
The discussion thus far has not included Negroes for the reason that
the Negro is separate and relatively homogeneous, although somewhat
affected by racial admixtures. As pointed out before, the existing records
do not permit a study of the genetic changes. Various studies of the
Negro indicate that he differs from the white in certain constitutional
respects and in susceptibility to certain diseases, but the data are in-
sufficient to warrant definite conclusions as to whether or not the net
results of these differences point to inferiority or superiority in vitality,
in its strict biological sense.49
V. THE PRESENT STATE OF THE PEOPLE'S HEALTH
This discussion of the trend in the vitality of the American people
and of some of the principal factors involved in its conservation would
not be complete without a summary on the present state of the people's
health. Some of the evidence has already been given in the foregoing
pages; it remains to round out the picture, even though it be only a
sketch.
From the great mass of information, much of which cannot be put
into statistical form, a few samples50 have been selected. These relate to :
of that period. The Irish did not rise as high in the economic scale as did the native born
or English and the Scotch, as the reports of the Immigration Commission show. A very
considerable proportion of German immigrants settled in rural areas, whereas very few
of the Irish did. Moreover, under the more favorable environment of a later period, the
death rate from tuberculosis, to which Irish are commonly regarded as peculiarly sus-
ceptible, was not much higher for the Irish than for other nativities, as for example in
Chicago in 1910.
48 DePorte, J. V., "Marriage in the State of New York with Special Reference to Nativ-
ity," Human Biology, September, 1931, vol. Ill, no. 3, pp. 376-396.
49 See Holmes, S. J., "Differential Mortality in the American Negro," Human Biology,
vol. Ill, nos. 1 and 2, pp. 71-106, 203-244. This is perhaps the most exhaustive recent
study of the subject. In his conclusion Holmes say: "There is no adequate evidence that
[the Negro] has any less capacity to resist disease than the whites. The mortality of the
Negro is so greatly affected by his unfavorable environment and habits of life that for
most diseases it is quite impossible to detect any influence of hereditary racial factors
which nevertheless may be present." (p. 242); see also Sydenstricker and Gover, op. cit:
50 Except in so far as the data have already been given or may be necessary to complete
the picture at different ages, the evidence relating to children and adolescent ages will
not be given in this chapter since it is presented and discussed adequately in Chap. XV.
[ 645 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
1. The prevalence of physical and mental impairments.
2. The prevalence and incidence of various kinds of illness.
3. The mortality rate from the principal causes.
Prevalence of Physical and Mental Defects and Impairments. — The
most accurate statement about the health of the population should be
afforded by the results of physical and medical examinations of random
samples. Unfortunately the data yielded by examinations of this kind
are neither accurate nor typical. The ordinary physical examination is so
cursory that only some of the major defects are found and the opinions
of the examining physicians vary so greatly that they are in no respect
comparable. The largest mass of records yet published are those of
examinations of recruits and of men drafted in the World War. Although
these records yielded some rather interesting information about a specific
age group of males, they can be almost entirely dismissed for the purposes
of this discussion because the examiners were looking for specific defects
and frequently did not look for others when one disabling impairment
was discovered. The more careful examinations made by the officers of
the United States Public Health Service in the course of certain industrial
studies constitute a valuable source of information for a single group,
namely the industrial workers.51 More recently, and partly for the purposes
of this study, the records of approximately 100,000 males who received
"health" examinations under the auspices of the Life Extension Institute
were tabulated and analyzed. It is believed that this set of records
constitutes the best data so far available on the prevalence of specific
impairments according to age, although they possess certain defects which
should be noted as follows:
(a) The examinations were made by about 9,000 physicians in
typical localities in the United States but the physicians were not specially
trained in the technique of discovering impairments. The results there-
fore merely represent the professional opinions of the average American
physician.
(6) The persons examined were all adults but they constitute a
selected group by reason of the fact that they were life insurance policy
holders and therefore had passed some sort of medical examination
before. Moreover they were more representative of the upper social
and economic level than of the population as a whole.
Although great variability in the findings of individual physicians
undoubtedly occurred, the results given by 9,000 examiners for so large
a number of persons are not without some value in affording an impres-
sion, admittedly not exact, of American medical practitioners' findings.
The data yielded by these examinations have therefore been selected for
51 Public Health Service, Rollo H. Britten and L. R. Thompson, A Health Study of
Ten Thousand Male Industrial Workers, Public Health Bulletin no. 162, p. 161.
f 646 1
VITALITY
comment.52 It is proper to state that the findings of the Life Extension
Institute examiners generally coincide with those of the medical officers
of the United States Public Health Service already referred to.
In general, the findings may be summarized as follows:
1. For reasons stated above the actual percentages of white males
who were found to have impairments are of little value as a complete
revelation of the extent to which the various impairments prevailed.
Nevertheless they are not without interest and the frequency of the
principal impairments are shown in Table 8, the percentages having
TABLE 8. — FREQUENCY OF CERTAIN IMPAIRMENTS, ADJUSTED TO THE AGE DISTRIBUTION
OF ADULT MALES IN THE UNITED STAPES
(1920 Census)"
Impairment or disease
Percent
of total
persons
examined
Impairment or disease
Percent
of total
persona
examined
Eyes and ears:
Defective vision (corrected and uncor-
rected)
Defective hearing
Wax in ears
Nose and throat:
Deflected septum — marked
Deflected septum — slight
Enlarged or diseased tonsils
Naso-pharyngitis
Hypertrophic rhinitis
Frequent colds
Teeth:
Carious teeth — septic roots
Pyorr hea
Slightly infected gums
Heart and pulse:
Functional murmur
Enlargement
Other organic
Rapid pulse
Blood vessels:
Moderate or marked arterial thickening
Slight arterial thickening
Varicose veins
Respiratory :
Emphysema
Tuberculosis (suspected or active)
Endocrine:
Enlarged thyroid (simple goitre) ......
57.0
15.9
13.0
7.6
40.9
43.0
8.0
36.7
16.2
15.0
6.0
17.9
6.9
3.2
4.8
8.6
4.7
15.7
6.4
1.5
1.0
1.7
Stomach and abdominal:
Acid stomach
Gastric disturbances
Constipation
Tenderness in region of appendix. . . .
Hemorrhoids
Varicocele
Weak inguinal rings
Inguinal hernia — truss
Inguinal hernia — no truss
Other hernias
Genito-urinary :
Prostate enlarged or tender
Frequent or painful urination
Brain and nervous:
Nervousness
Reflexes sluggish, absent, unequal,
irregular
Miscellaneous:
Adenitis
Chronic skin infection
Urinalysis:
Albumin — slight trace
Albumin — definite trace or marked. . .
Pus
Casts — hyaline
Casts — granular
Specific gravity — high
Specific gravity — low
Sugar — trace or marked
10.5
8.0
83.7
2.5
13.2
8.9
7.2
3.1
8.1
.85
10.9
10.5
6.9
4.8
8.5
10.1
19.5
3.3
12.9
12.5
8.7
4.0
4.0
6.2
0 For source, see footnote 52 and text.
52 Some of the principal findings have already been published. Reference may be made
to the following papers: Sydenstricker, Edgar and Britten, Hollo H., "The Physical
Impairments of Adult Life," American Journal of Hygiene, vol. XI, no. 1, January, 1930,
pp. 73-135; U. S. Public Health Service, Sydenstricker, Edgar and Britten, Rollo H.:
"Physical Impairments and Occupational Class," Public Health Reports, vol. XLV, no. 34,
August 22, 1930, pp. 1927-1962.
[ 647 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
PER CENT
100
AGRICULTURAL
SKILLED TRADE-
PROFESSIONAL
BUSINESS
ALL OCCUPATIONS
DEFECTIVE VISION
X ^=i
PER CENT
30
Z5 30 35 40 45 50 55 6O
AGE:
CARIOUS TEETH j SEPTIC ROOTS
-ENLARGED AND DISEASED TONSILS-
0 5 10 "5 ZO Z5 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
PERCENT
I O
5 10 15 ZO 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
AGE
VALVULAR HEART LESIONS
0
PER CENT
ENLARGED HEART
PER CENT
IO
ARTERIAL THICKENING
(MODERATE OR MARKED)
FIG. 19. — Percent of male white policy holders found by medical examiners of the
Life Extension Institute to have certain impairments and conditions at different ages,
by occupational class.
[ 648 ]
VITALITY
been adjusted to the age of distribution of adult males in the United
States in 1920.
2. The most important results are variations in the percent of adults
impaired in various ways according to age. In Figure 19, the age variations
of some of the impairments are shown in graphic form, the heavy lines
indicating the percentage for the total group. Those impairments which
decreased with age were otitis media, deflected septum, hypertrophic
rhinitis, naso-pharyngitis, history of common colds, enlarged and diseased
tonsils, tuberculosis, tenderness in the region of the appendix, enlarged
thyroid and dysfunction of the thyroid, specific gravity of the urine, and
mastoid defects. Impairments which showed a marked rise with age were
as follows: defective vision and cataract, defective hearing, emphysema
and asthma, pyorrhea and carious teeth, heart impairments, high blood
pressure and arterial thickening, hemorrhoids and varicose veins,
hernia, enlarged or hardening of the liver, tenderness in the region of the
gall bladder, visceroptosis, hydrocele, genito-urinary impairments,
sluggish and irregular reflexes and the occurrence of positive Romberg,
casts, albumin, pus and sugar in the urine, oedema, neuralgia and neuritis.
It was also observed that constipation and habitual use of laxatives was
more frequent in older than in younger persons.
In the same diagram are shown the impairment rates according to age
for persons of different occupational and, in a general sense, social class.
These clearly suggest certain variations that are associated principally
with environmental conditions, although in some instances they may be
interpreted as reflecting differences in constitution.
The true prevalence of venereal diseases is not revealed by statistics
of impairments nor by records of morbidity and mortality. In fact, the
full extent of their prevalence is not shown by any statistics now avail-
able for representative population groups. The most complete data are
those obtained by the United States Public Health Service on the number
TABLE 9. — PREVALENCE OF GONORRHEA AND SYPHILIS (UNDER TREATMENT) IN A
POPULATION OF 24,498,000 IN VARIOUS LOCALITIES, 1926-1929°
Rate per 1,000 of population
Disease
Both sexes
Males
Females
8.41
5.03
1.75
4.05
4.98
S.ll
7 46
10.00
4.86
"From Public Health Service, Lida J. Usilton, "Prevalence of Venereal Disease in the United States,"
Venereal Disease Information, December 20, 1930, vol. XI, no. 12. The surveys were made aa of given dates
in the period 1926-1929.
f 649 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of cases of syphilis and gonorrhea under treatment by physicians in
private practice, clinics, hospitals or charity institutions. These surveys
are summarized in Table 9. Obviously these rates are minimal statements
since many cases do not come to the physicians for treatment. Their sig-
nificance lies in the fact that the diseases have their onset in early adult
life and, entirely aside from their social consequences or effects upon
offspring, contribute to the prevalence of organic diseases of other kinds
before old age is reached.
The extent to which mental defects and impairments are prevalent
or occur annually is a matter of conjecture. Estimates made by so-called
authorities on mental hygiene vary so widely as to be ludicrous. They
depend on opinions as to what are mental disorders and obviously no
accuracy can be attained until some scientific standards are set up and
tested by objective methods. We are thus compelled to rely on such
objective data as are available but with the full understanding that they
are far from complete. For this purpose admissions to institutions and
hospitals because of mental disease are the most reliable, although
admittedly minimal, data. Since the statistics for New York state are
probably the most complete, they may be selected as the most dependable
sample for the country.53
Even these data, minimal as they are recognized to be, reveal the
seriousness of the problem of mental disease. The expectancy of supposedly
sane persons born in the state of New York of becoming so mentally
diseased in one form or another as to be patients in institutions is 4.5
percent. Pollock and Malzberg54 point out that "on the average, ap-
proximately one person out of 22 becomes a patient for mental disease
during the life of a generation." The rates for mental disease are higher
for males than for females; they rise gradually with age from 13 to about
60 years and thereafter increase rapidly from approximately one per
1,000 population to about four per 1,000. The rates for foreign born males
and females are considerably higher than those for natives under sixty
years of age, but, as these authors suggest, these higher rates "are more
probably due to environmental stresses such as are incidental to the
struggle for existence in a new land" than to any racial inferiority.
Syphilis, which is the cause of a considerable proportion of mental
disease, is probably more prevalent in the foreign born than in the native
population.
Prevalence and Incidence of Illness. — The only considerable source
of information on the prevalence of disabling illness is the series of sick-
ness surveys of 637,038 white and Negro industrial policy holders and
63 Compare the New York rates to be quoted with those given in the report of the
U. S. Bureau of the Census on Patients in Hospitals for Mental Disease, 1923.
64 Pollock, Horatio M. and Malzberg, Benjamin: "Expectation of Mental Disease,"
Psychiatric Quarterly, October, 1928, vol. II, no. 4, pp. 549-579.
[ 650 1
VITALITY
their families55 made in 1915-1917 by the Metropolitan Life Insurance
Company. The surveys were made at various seasons of the year and
included a fair proportion of the wage earning population of each locality.
The results indicated that at a given instant in time slightly more than
2 percent of the persons canvassed were ill. Of the total sick persons 91
TABLE 10. — PREVALENCE OF VARIOUS TYPES OF DISABLING ILLNESS, 1915-1917°
(Among 571,757 persons surveyed by the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company)
Rate per
Rate per
Disease or condition
100,000
Disease or condition
100,000
population
population
Infectious diseases of childhood
95.7
Kidneys and genito-urinary
64.9
Tuberculosis,6 malaria and typhoid fever.
111.7
Puerperal conditions, including normal
164 4
pregnancy
51 S
331 6
Mental and nervous conditions
£36 4
Digestive system
165.8
External causes, chiefly accidents
178 4
Heart and circulatory system
80.6
All other
326 1
a From Some Recent Morbidity Data compiled by Margaret Loomis Stecker, New York, 1919, from the
reports of the Community Sickness Surveys Made Among Policy Holders of the Metropolitan Life Insurance
Company, 1915-1917 by Lee K. Frankel and Louis I. Dublin.
6 The prevalence of tuberculosis was 27.8 per 100,000, probably an understatement of the amount of dis-
abling tuberculosis and certainly of total tuberculosis.
percent were unable to work. The general nature of the causes and kinds
of sickness is summarized in Table 10. Nearly 60 percent of the illnesses
had lasted one month or longer at the time the record was made and for
nearly 30 percent the duration had been one year or longer.
Were all of these conditions peculiar to old age, near the end of the
life span, disabling illness would not be regarded as any indication of
impaired or low vitality. But the age specific rates for prevalent disabling
illness affords no such comforting explanation, as Table 11 shows. The
prevalence of disabling sickness in the age period 35-44 years, when the
capacity for work and life should be nearing its zenith, is twice that of
children and increases by almost half in the decade after 44 years of age.
The higher prevalence of disabling illness among men 45 years of age and
over than among women is an indication of damaged vitality that, in
the light of other data referred to in this report, must be regarded as
evidence that environmental conditions bear more severely upon men.
The lack of ability to resist disease and impairments is measurable
from another point of view — the frequency with which illness of different
kinds occurs in the population. This is shown by records of the incidence
of disease and illness during a given period which may be contrasted with
the records of the prevalence of illness at a given instant in time. Estimates
65 The population surveyed was industrial in type and lived in Rochester, New York,
Chelsea neighborhood of New York City, Trenton, New Jersey, Boston, industrial villages
in North Carolina, in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and Kansas City, Missouri.
[ 651 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of the frequency of illness vary according to the definition of what is
meant by illness. Some estimates and records include minor respiratory
TABLE 11. — PERCENT OF PERSONS AT DIFFERENT AGES WHO WERE FOUND BY THE
METROPOLITAN LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY TO BE SICK ANL UNABLE TO WORK, 1915-1917"
Age
Both sexes
Males
Females
Age
Both sexes
Males
Females
0-14.
15-24.
25-34.
35-44.
1.1
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
2.0
1.1
1.4
1.8
2.2
45-54
55-64
65 and over.
3.0
4.8
9.5
3.3
5.4
10.6
2.8
4.2
8.7
« See footnote o to Table 10.
and digestive symptoms that are not really morbid but are normal
physiological reactions to changes in meteorological and dietary condi-
tions. A fairly conservative estimate would be between 0.8 and 1.0 illness
TABLE 12. — ANNUAL MORBIDITY RATE FROM VARIOUS CAUSES IN A POPULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 39,000 PERSONS IN TYPICAL LOCALITIES OF THE UNITED STATES,
1928-1931°
Diseases and conditions causing illness (numbers in parentheses refer to those given in the
International List of Causes of Death, 1920)
Rate per 1,000
All diseases 857.8
Total respiratory (11, 31, 97-107, 109) 853.3
Influenza and grippe (11) 85.4
Diseases of the pharynx (109) 68 . 9
Diseases of the larynx (98) 5.7
Epidemic, endemic and infectious diseases (1-42, except 11 and 31) 75.0
General diseases (43-69) 29.3
Cancer (43-49) 1.2
Diabetes (57) 1.9
Diseases of the nervous system (70-84, part of 205) 29.4
Diseases of the eye and annexa (85) 11.5
Diseases of the ear and mastoid process (86) 23 . 3
Diseases of the circulatory system (87-96) 25 . 4
Diseases and disorders of the digestive system (110-127, part of 108 and 205) 89.3
Indigestion and upset stomach (part of 112) 32 . 3
Diseases of teeth and gums (part of 108) 11.5
Diseases of kidney and annexa (128-134) 15. 1
Non-venereal diseases of the genito-urinary system (135-142) 17.3
Puerperal state (143-150) 28.7
Confinement 19.7
Diseases of skin and cellular tissue (151-154, part of 205) 38 . 4
Diseases of bones and organs of locomotion (155-158, part of 205) 16.8
Congenital malformations and infancy (159-163) 2.1
Senility (164) .8
External causes (165-203) 75.1
111 defined and unknown 15.5
» Preliminary tabulation of the results of a study made under the auspices of the Committee on the Costs
of Medical Care in cooperation with the United States Public Health Service and State Departments of Health.
The data were secured from families at frequent intervals during a period of one year.
[ 652 ]
VITALITY
per person per year, using "illness" in the commonly accepted sense.
The evidence is fairly definite that about one in ten industrially employed
males suffer a disabling illness of one week or longer per year.56
The largest collection of records showing the frequency or incidence
of illness during twelve months in samples of the general population of all
ages at home and at work (about 40,000 persons) was made by the Com-
mittee on the Costs of Medical Care in cooperation with the United States
Annual Rate per 1,000
I 60
140 -
120 -
100 -
8O -
60
4O -
20
70
8O
FIG. 20. — Incidence of illnesses due to certain causes at different ages in a sample
of 7,200 white persons residing in Hagerstown, Maryland, 1921-1924. (From the Hagers-
town Morbidity Studies, U. S. Public Health Service.)
Public Health Service. These records are summarized according to cause
or nature of illness in Table 12 which shows that although about forty
percent were respiratory and that about half of these were "common
colds,"57 the incidence of illnesses of more serious kinds are distressingly
frequent.
56 Brundage, D. K., "The Incidence of Illness among Wage Earning Adults," Journal
of Industrial Hygiene, vol. XII, no. 9, November, 1930, p. 342. This figure is based on
899,064 years of life observed in 1921-1928.
67 The Hagerstown Morbidity Studies made by the United States Public Health Service
over a period of 28 months for about 7,200 persons showed that 60 percent of illnesses
were respiratory in kind. These studies were more intensive than the one referred to above
in that the families were canvassed more frequently and a more complete record of minor
illness was obtained. Otherwise the two series of studies were generally similar as to method.
(U. S. Public Health Service, Public Health Reports, September 24, 1926, vol. XLI, no. 39.)
[ 653 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
More significant than gross illness rates are the statistics of illness
according to age, since they portray conditions and diseases as manifesta-
tions of impaired vitality. The first illness records obtained for a sample
of a typical population of all ages, of both sexes, living at home or working,
were collected by the writer for the United States Public Health Service
in Hagerstown, Maryland, in 1921-1924, and have been tabulated accord-
ing to cause for different age groups. Using "illness" in the ordinary sense,
it was found that the frequency of total illness was highest in childhood,
Annual Rate per 1,000
1,000
9OO
80O
700
600
500
400
300
2OO
IOO
10
eo
30
4O
AGE
5O 6O
7O
80
FIG. 21. — Incidence of illnesses due to certain causes at different ages in a sample of
7,200 white persons residing in Hagerstown, Maryland, 1921-1924. (From the Hagerstown
Morbidity Studies, U. S. Public Health Service.)
lowest in the ages 15-24, and increased gradually according to age there-
after. The preponderance of respiratory illness (60 percent of the total)
somewhat obscured the picture of illnesses of other kinds, but when
respiratory illnesses were subtracted, this variation in the age curve was
even more pronounced. When illness is pictured in terms of its causes
or nature at different ages (Figures 20 and 21) the conclusion is inescap-
[ 654 ]
VITALITY
able that, aside from the minor respiratory and digestive ailments,
certain organic and nervous conditions manifest themselves at an early
adult age. Sickness in childhood is mainly due to infections from the
communicable intestinal and respiratory diseases and conditions affecting
the skin, teeth, eyes and ears. The extent to which these infections are
causally related to the impairments of later life, particularly at those ages
when physical efficiency should be greatest, has not been precisely
determined, but the general consensus is that a very large propor-
tion of the impairments of early and middle adult life are traceable
to some of the diseases contracted in childhood. Whatever may be the
exact correlation, the later impairments are serious enough to be measured
in terms of actual illness and are strikingly shown by the incidence rates
of digestive, nervous, general, circulatory and kidney diseases.
The frequency of illness for an entire population during a given period
of time does not tell us how many individuals were ill nor whether or
not some individuals were ill more often than others. The Hagerstown
study showed that, for persons observed at frequent intervals for 26
months, the proportion ill once a year did not vary greatly according to
age, the percentages varying from 18.1 to 22.4. But the percentage of
persons ill twice a year or oftener varied from 45.5 in childhood to 10.5
in the age period 20-24 years, gradually increasing thereafter to 22.6 in
the age period 45-54 years. The large number of children frequently sick
is a reflection of the frequency of infections and minor ailments, but the
TABLE 13. — PREVALENCE OF CERTAIN CHRONIC CONDITIONS RESULTING IN ILLNESS
DURING A 28 MONTHS' PERIOD IN A GENERAL POPULATION GROUP IN
HAGERSTOWN, MARYLAND*
Both sexes
Males
Females
6 99
4 56
9 27
Cancer
2 83
72
3 85
S 61
1 44
5 65
34 01
25 68
41 84
3 14
2 16
4 07
21 78
9 84
33 03
Neurasthenia and nervous exhaustion
22 36
6 72
37 10
21 19
13 68
28 27
D* t" d' d
25 86
21 12
30 31
6 64
3 36
9 73
6 05
2 88
9 05
Nephritis and other kidney conditions
16.77
11.52
21.72
15.83
Rate per 1,000 persons observed
0 Condensed from Table 4, Hagerstown Morbidity Studies no. 1, United States Public Health Reports,
September 24, 1926, vol. XLI, no. 39; the uniformly higher rates among females may be due in part to the fact
that women in the households observed were the informants and may have reported more completely upon
their own ailments than upon those of their husbands and other adult males.
[ 655 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
rising percentages of adults who were more frequently sick as age ad-
vances, considered in relation to the nature of the illness, points to the
fact that certain impairments and diseases are of a chronic nature.
The Hagerstown study also afforded the opportunity of ascertaining the
prevalence of chronic diseases and conditions serious enough to cause
illness. The more frequent cases are shown in Table 13. The foregoing is a
minimal statement for two reasons: only those conditions that were
severe enough to cause illness or at least discomfort were reported and, of
these, a large proportion were serious enough to demand a physician's
attendance.
A study of the chronic disease situation in Massachusetts formed the
basis for an estimate that approximately half a million persons, or about
TABLE 14. — MORTALITY FROM CERTAIN CAUSES IN THE 1900 REGISTRATION AREA,
1900-1929"
Year
Infant
mortal-
ity
Maternal
Diph-
theria
Measles
Scarlet
fever
Ty-
phoid
fever
Whoop-
ing
cough
Dia-
betes
Total
puer-
peral
causes
Puer-
peral
septi-
cemia
1900
53.0
52.3
50.0
51.6
59.0
57.0
56.8
59.7
56.8
57.3
60.0
61.8
56.6
60.0
61.9
59.9
59.7
62.9
83.9
62.5
72.0
62.2
57.6
55.7
56.2
52.9
50.2
51.7
47.9
23.0
21.8
20.9
21.5
25.8
25.1
23.0
25.7
24.3
24.4
26.9
28.4
24.0
26.4
26.5
24.1
24.8
26.0
22.9
21.3
24.8
25.0
21.1
20.9
21.6
20.1
19.0
19.9
17.6
146
40.4
33.4
29.7
31.0
29.3
23.6
25.8
24.0
21.6
21.1
22.5
18.5
16.8
19.2
18.4
15.8
15.1
18.2
16.4
17.7
17.3
17.8
14.7
12.2
10.1
8.1
7.6
8.4
7.4
6.7
10
13.4
7.4
9.3
8.8
11.3
7.4
11.8
8.9
10.2
11.0
12.6
9.3
9.0
11.5
7.4
6.6
10.6
10.4
12.1
3.7
10.3
4.2
7.9
8.6
5.8
3.4
11.1
1.9
5.5
2.5
7
9.6
13.5
11.9
12.3
11.6
6.8
7.3
9.8
12.9
10.8
12.2
8.9
6.2
8.3
6.6
4.0
2.9
3.8
3.2
3.0
5.2
6.4
4.0
3.5
3.3
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.1
1.9
8
31.3
27.5
26.3
24.6
23.9
22.4
22.0
20.5
19.6
17.2
18.0
15.3
13.2
12.6
10.8
9.2
8.8
8.1
7.0
4.8
4.9
5.2
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.8
2.8
1.9
1.9
1.6
1
12.3
8.7
12.4
14.3
5.8
9.0
14.5
9.5
9.4
9.9
10.7
10.6
8.0
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.1
8.8
15.3
4.9
11.9
8.3
5.7
8.2
6.5
5.8
7.7
4.7
5.1
4.2
9
11.0
11.5
11.6
12.5
14.0
13.9
14.7
15.5
15.1
16.0
17.6
17.7
17.7
18.6
19.4
21.5
20.7
21.7
20.2
19.2
20.4
20.7
23.2
22.1
20.3
21.0
22.0
22.0
23.6
24.1
57
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909 . . .
1910 ....
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
99.8
100.1
96.3
106.2
88.8
89.9
78.9
79.3
79.5
71.8
73.4
74.7
64.0
66.7
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
International list . . .
143-149
[ 656 ]
VITALITY
TABLE 14. — MORTALITY FROM CERTAIN CAUSES IN THE 1900 REGISTRATION AREA,
1900-1929.°— (Continued)
Year
Pneu-
monia
Cere-
bral
hemor-
rhage
Tuber-
culosis
Heart
disease
Cancer
Ne-
phritis
Accidents
Accidents
(excl. suicide
and homocide;
Automo-
bile acci-
dents
1900
1901
1902
175.5
160.2
150.4
149.7
170.3
149.3
152.6
163.3
136. 4
149.5
159.0
149.1
146.4
146.8
140.8
148.5
155.4
165.2
336.5
142.9
154.6
93.9
115.5
118.3
102.4
102.3
117.9
88.7
106.5
72.5
74.3
74.7
75.9
80.1
80.4
79.4
84.3
80.6
82.8
86.2
88.9
88.0
87.5
92.5
91.7
95.8
100.1
97.0
93.5
95.8
93.2
96.6
98.6
99.8
89.6
90.6
86.1
88.8
195.2
189.8
174.1
177.1
188.5
180.9
177.8
175.6
169.4
163.3
164.7
159.0
149.8
148.7
148.6
146.7
143.8
147.1
151.0
124.9
111.7
94.1
91.4
89.6
85.6
82.1
82.4
75.4
74.9
71.9
31-37
137.4
138.8
143.7
149.7
161.3
159.8
162.8
176.8
166.8
169.0
180.9
182.2
180.5
181.4
189.4
193.8
205.4
209.7
210.3
183.6
197.6
192.7
208.5
220.4
218.3
232.5
249.2
238.7
259.2
266.4
87-90
64.0
66.2
66.1
69.8
71.5
73.7
73.9
76.3
77. 2
79.6
83.0
83.9
86.0
88.8
89.2
92.0
93.9
95.0
94.7
95.8
98.7
101.9
103.9
105.1
108.2
110.7
112.6
114.7
115.8
117.3
43-49
88.7
89.6
90.3
96.0
102.4
101.6
103.0
107.3
99.2
103.2
107.3
109.8
113.9
113.1
114.5
113.1
117.7
118.8
107.1
96.3
97.4
89.5
94.3
94.9
91.8
100.7
102.7
94.6
94.6
90.8
128-129
72.3
87.3
73.4
86.1
90.4
87.0
89.6
90.7
83.0
81.9
77.8
85.2
79.1
82.1
76.2
74.0
83.8
90.7
83.1
72.7
70.6
68.2
70.4
77.5
77.8
78.9
77.6
77.1
78.8
80.7
175-196
201-203
.5
.7
.9
1.4
2.0
2.5
3.3
4.8
4.9
6.5
8.1
10.1
10.8
11.7
12.1
13.3
14.5
16.8
18.0
19.0
19.3
21.3
22.4
25.1
188c
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1918 . .
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
International list
100-101
74a
0 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Mortality Statistics, number of deaths per 100,000 population. The intercensal
populatiens have been estimated by straight line interpolation from the federal censuses of 1900, 1910, 1920 and
1930. Infant mortality is the number of deaths per 1,000 live births in the original birth registration area. The
maternal mortality is the number of deaths per 100,000 females 15-44 years of age. The numbers appearing at
the bottom of the columns correspond to those given in the 1920 International List of Causes of Death.
12 percent of the entire population of the state, are "sick with chronic
disease at any one given moment."58 It was found that among persons
under 20 years of age, the chronic disease sickness rate was 17 per 1,000
and among persons 50-54 years of age 198 per 1,000; that about one-fifth
of the sick individuals had more than one disease; and that over 8 percent
of the sick (including the aged sick) were completely disabled.
58 Lombard, H. L., "The Chronic Disease Problem in Massachusetts." Hospital Social
Service, 1930, vol. XXII, pp. 392-397.
[ 657 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Mortality Rates. — That all individuals must die is an inescapable fact
of life. What the mortality rate would be if all lived to the end of the life
span depends of course upon the length of the span. The point that
interests us here is the failure of so large a proportion of the population
to reach the end of even a modest life span — say 60 or 70 years. The data
already referred to are ample to illustrate the actual failure to survive as
well as to indicate some of the principal causes of death at different ages.
Table 14, which brings up to date the gross mortality rates for certain
causes, shows the rates for the more immediate causes of death. These
facts should be interpreted, however, in the light of the impairments and
illnesses that have been found to exist and occur long before death comes.
If this is done, a conclusion of profound significance to the conservation of
vitality is inescapable, namely that the vitality of the American people —
whatever it may be if it were measurable in terms of inherited longevity —
is impaired to an appalling extent by disease and environmental conditions
that result not only in the immediate death of many but also in lowered
efficiency, suffering, unhappiness and organic breakdowns which con-
tribute to premature mortality.
VI. CONCLUSION
1. The expectation of life, i.e. the average age at death, has greatly
increased, particularly during the past thirty years. This increase is
due to the reduction in the mortality rate among persons under middle
age, especially among infants and children, which has more than balanced
the slower but consistent increase in the mortality rate of persons in
middle and old age.59
2. The span of life has not changed. The expectation of life will
inevitably increase more slowly as it approaches the limit of this span.
Already indications of this change are to be seen.
3. The gross mortality rate is tending to reach a level beyond which
it will not decrease further unless effective methods of controlling the
diseases of middle and old age are discovered and applied. Unless this can
be accomplished on a considerable scale in the next few decades, an
increase in the gross death rate can be predicted because of changes in
the age distribution of the population, due to the decline in the birthrate.
4. The available evidence is insufficient to warrant a decisive verdict
as to any change in the vitality, in the strict biological sense, of the Ameri-
can people. Further research may reveal that some process of breeding is
going on which is resulting or will result in the inheritance, by an increas-
59 For estimates of future death rates, see Chap. I.
[ 658 1
VITALITY
ing proportion of the population, of shorter rather than longer life. There
are no scientific grounds as yet upon which the increase in mortality
among older persons can be used as evidence of such a process. The recent
increase in the mortality from important organic conditions among older
males as compared with females of the same age is a definite sign that
some unfavorable environmental condition or conditions, but not de-
creased inherited vitality, is peculiar in its effect upon males.
5. On the contrary, all evidence at present points to the conclusion
that environmental factors have had a far greater influence than genetic
factors in determining the rate at which the American people survive.
The decline in the mortality rate may be properly interpreted to mean
that conservation of vitality has been highly effective.
6. This conservation of vitality has been principally the result of
successful efforts to control the most deadly of the communicable diseases
which attack the susceptible and therefore the younger persons, and of
improvements in modes and standards of living. Other than the signal
achievements in reducing the mortality from tuberculosis, no such
specific efforts have so far been as successful in controlling diseases peculiar
to middle and old age or in postponing organic breakdowns that, although
natural concomitants of the aging process, are hastened by disease or
undue strain.
7. In spite of the reduction in the death rate among younger persons
and the prevention of many infectious diseases, the American people are
not enjoying the full extent of their vitality before they die. The high
rate of sickness at all ages, except in late childhood and adolescence, is a
disconcerting statistical expression of an almost universal experience.
The available evidence on the prevalence of chronic diseases and organic
as well as functional impairments, although incomplete, also reveals that
a large proportion of the population is thus rendered more or less ineffi-
cient. Less commonly known but equally appalling is the fact that nearly
5 percent of American babies at birth have the prospect of becoming
so mentally diseased in adult life as to require admission to some institu-
tion. The importance of conserving vitality and promoting enjoyment of
life throughout life greatly overshadows, at least at present, the vague
possibilities of lengthening the life span by the scientific breeding of
future generations.
8. The most important field for further conservation of vitality is
among persons over forty years of age. While great opportunities lie in
the control of such diseases as syphilis, cancer, diabetes, tuberculosis,
[ 659 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
pneumonia and other respiratory diseases, even greater opportunities
exist in discovering the causes of organic breakdowns of the heart and
circulatory system, the kidneys and the entire alimentary mechanism.
As the statistics of sickness and physical impairments at earlier ages
indicate, the search for these causes doubtless will go into the conditions
of childhood and young adult life and, when successful, will result in
further conservation of vitality throughout the entire life span.
[ 660
CHAPTER XIII
THE FAMILY AND ITS FUNCTIONS
BY WILLIAM F. OGBUBN, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF CLARK TIBBITTS
THE institution of the family has been attacked and defended with
unusual vigor in recent years. The present chapter discusses changes
in the family as an economic institution, its protective, religious,
recreational and educational functions, trends in the way in which fami-
lies are organized, the extent of broken homes and problems arising in
connection with them, relations of parents and children and of husbands
and wives, and finally, the efforts to deal with family problems.
Two outstanding conclusions are indicated by the data on changes in
family life. One is the decline of the institutional functions of the family
as for example its economic functions. Thus the family now produces
less food and clothing than it did formerly. The teaching functions of the
family also have been largely shifted to another institution, the school.
Industry and the state have both grown at the family's expense. The
significance of this diminution in the activities of the family as a group
is far reaching.
The other outstanding conclusion is the resulting predominant im-
portance of the personality functions of the family — that is, those which
provide for the mutual adjustments among husbands, wives, parents
and children and for the adaptation of each member of the family to the
outside world. The family has always been responsible to a large degree
for the formation of character. It has furnished social contacts and group
life. With the decline of its institutional functions these personality func-
tions have come to be its most important contribution to society. The
chief concern over the family nowadays is not how strong it may be as an
economic organization but how well it performs services for the personali-
ties of its members.
In colonial times in America the family was a very important economic
organization. Not infrequently it produced substantially all that it
consumed, with the exception of such things as metal tools, utensils, salt
and certain luxuries. The home was, in short, a factory. Civilization was
based on a domestic system of production of which the family was the
center.
[ 661 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The economic power of the family produced certain corresponding
social conditions. In marrying, a man sought not only a mate and com-
panion but a business partner. Husband and wife each had specialized
skills and contributed definite services to the partnership. Children were
regarded, as the laws of the time showed, not only as objects of affection
but as productive agents. The age of marriage, the birth rate and the
attitude toward divorce were all affected by the fact that the home was
an economic institution. Divorce or separation not only broke a personal
relationship but a business one as well.
Other institutional functions of the family were at the same time
strongly developed. It furnished protection to its own members, with less
aid from the community than is expected today; it might even, as in the
case of feuds, carry on private wars. The authority of the father and
husband was sufficient to settle within the family many of the problems
of conduct. Religious instruction and ritual were a part of family life.
For a successful marriage it was considered important that couples should
hold the same faith. In general the home was the gathering place for
play activities though there were some community festivities. Educa-
tionally, the farm and home duties constituted a larger part of learning
than did formal instruction in schools. Farm life furnished what we now
call manual training, physical education, domestic science instruction
and vocational guidance. The individual spent much of the daily cycle
in the family setting, occupied in ways set by the family pattern. Kinship
was part of the structure and family status meant much.
Such was the family in colonial days and with slight variations such
it has been during much of our history. But changes set in as manufactur-
ing technique evolved, as economic division of labor progressed and as
trade developed. More people lived in towns, where they produced less
of the food they consumed. Manufacturing first became specialized in
the urban household, but with the introduction of steam power and the
growth of mechanical invention it went into the factory. Markets and
railroads stimulated the growth of cities. The making of furniture, thread,
cloth, medicines and leather early left the household. At varying intervals
other productive operations have been similarly transferred wholly or
in part. This loss of economic functions has been a factor in many social
questions, including the position of women in society, the stability of the
family and the birth rate.
The family has been losing other functions as well. The government
is assuming a larger protective role with its policing forces, its enormously
expanded schools, its courts and its social legislation. Religious observ-
ances within the home are said to be declining. Opportunities for recrea-
tion can be sold for a profit and the existence of theaters, dance halls
and ball parks indicates that members of families find more recreation
[ 662 ]
FAMILY
than formerly outside the home. A child or adult is regarded more as an
individual and less as a bearer of the family name.
These historical changes in family functions have not been accom-
plished without corresponding changes in structure. The household of
today is about a quarter smaller than that of the colonial family. Mar-
riage occurs probably somewhat later in life now than in earlier times,
especially for women. There are many more families without children.
The American home is broken much more frequently by separation and
divorce than in colonial times. Children are an economic burden for a
longer time and an economic asset for a shorter time, although in this
respect there is still a difference between the city and the country. Wives,
except when they work outside the home for pay, contribute proportion-
ately less to the family support. The organization of the family is becom-
ing diversified. The rural family differs from the city family, and the
family in the village from both. Families in cities vary according to
economic level, cultural status and occupation.
The personality functions of the family have suffered somewhat by
the decline in the number of children in the average family and by the
increase in the relative number of families with no children at all; by
the growing demands of the schools ; and perhaps also by the fact that the
modern city makes possible a wider range of contacts beyond the limits
of the family circle. Men in particular seem less dependent on the family
for social contacts than was formerly the case.
Nevertheless, it may be said that the affectional function is still
centered in the family circle and that no evidence is recorded of any
extensive transfer elsewhere. The evidence of increased separations and
divorces does not prove that husbands and wives now find marriage less
agreeable than their ancestors did. It may mean only that certain func-
tions and traditions which once operated to hold even an inharmonious
family together have now weakened or disappeared.
If the personality functions have undergone a slight positive decline
they have risen in relative importance because of the much greater de-
cline of the institutional functions. To express it differently, the family
is thought of much less as an economic institution than as an organization
for rearing children and providing happiness. There is thus a greater
individualization of the members of the family.
The changes in the family outlined in the preceeding paragraphs have
taken place over a long period of time. Although this chapter is primarily
concerned with changes during recent years, it is essential to bear in
mind the long time trends. For example, in interpreting data on the
recent growth in the number of restaurants and delicatessens it is impor-
tant to know whether such a development indicates a continuation at a
slower or faster rate of a long time trend in the transfer of economic
[ 663 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
functions from the home. In other words, is cooking about to follow
manufacturing out of the home ? Or will the departure of economic func-
tions from the home be retarded by the increased use of electrical appli-
ances and other mechanical aids ? These questions and others relating to
the shift in emphasis in the functions of the family will be discussed in
the later sections of this chapter.
I. THE FAMILY AS AN ECONOMIC INSTITUTION1
The economic functions which have been taken from the family were
not all lost at once. Some, such as the making of metals, implements and
furniture, began to decline early. Spinning and weaving, a more sudden
and spectacular loss, followed somewhat later, the making of clothing later
still. The loss of some of the functions, as, for instance, the making of
medicines and soaps, extended over a long period.2 The loss extends only
to a part of all the families. Thus there are still families who use the
muzzle loading gun as a means of adding to the food supply. Not all
families have given up baking and canning and sewing. All but a very
small proportion of families do some cooking. Recent trends will be shown
by considering one at a time some of the economic functions of the
household that appear to be in transition.
Household Economic Activities. — The production of bread has al-
ready been transferred in large part from the home to the bakery. In a
sample study3 of over 1,000 homes in 1930 it was found that two- thirds
of the farm households used baker's bread only. There is of course varia-
tion by regions. Three-fourths of the village homes and nine-tenths of
the city homes used baker's bread only. One-fifth of the farmers' house-
holds used home made bread only, while only about 1 percent of the
urban homes did.
The transfer of baking from the home was still going on during the
decade preceding 1929, as is shown by the increase in bakery products
manufactured outside the home.4 The quantity of bakery products is not
1 At different points in the sections of this chapter dealing with the institutional func-
tions of the family, some of the researches of John Dollard, submitted for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Chicago, have been utilized and the author is
indebted to him for valuable suggestions made in the course of many conversations on the
subject. For a fuller treatment of the subject, the reader is referred to Dollard's The Chang-
ing Functions of the American Family, University of Chicago, 1931.
2 The depression has, indeed, restored soap making as an activity for some farmers' wives.
See Bruce Melvin, "Rural Life," American J&urnal of Sociology, May, 1932, vol. XXXVII,
pp. 937-941.
3 Data supplied by Hildegarde Kneeland of the U. S. Bureau of Home Economics
from a study of the work of rural and urban households. See further studies of rural and
mountain families in Alabama and Kentucky, President's Conference on Home Building
and Home Ownership, Preliminary Reports XXIII and XVIII.
4 The data are from the U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures (biennial),
as are other data on production cited in the immediately following paragraphs, unless
otherwise stated. No data since 1929 are available at the time of writing.
[ 664 ]
FAMILY
available, but when their value in dollars is divided by the index number
of retail prices of bread of the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the result
is a fair index of the quantity of production, which is very near the index
of consumption. The per capita production of bakery goods made outside
the home5 increased 27 percent from 1919 to 1929, whereas the per capita
consumption of wheat flour both inside and outside the home decreased
about 10 percent
Since 1929, however, this transfer of baking from the home may have
been somewhat retarded, for during the depression years there is scattered
evidence of a slight revival of some of the earlier economic activities of
the household. As to the future, it is difficult to predict whether or not
the village and rural homes will become as dependent upon the outside
bakery as the city home is now.
The evidence indicates also that canning is leaving the home. Cer-
tainly during the decade 1919-1929 it has developed rapidly outside of
the sphere of the household. The per capita quantity of vegetables, fruits
and soups canned outside the home approximately doubled during the
decade.6 These products comprise about 70 percent of all canned and
preserved products. The year 1919, the year following the war, may not
be a good one from which to measure the change. If 1921, a depression
year, and hence not a good base year either, be taken the quantity nearly
tripled. Only a small portion of this great increase could be due to a
change in dietary habits. The increase in per capita consumption of fresh
fruits and vegetables seems to have been around 25 percent for this
decade.7 The growth of canning and preserving outside the home is so
rapid that a continuance may be expected in the future with a consequent
lessening of time required in the household preparation of food*
Laundering has not left the household to the extent that baking has.
In the special study referred to in presenting evidence on baking, the
data show that 88 percent of farm homes and 33 percent of the city homes
have no laundry done outside. Only 3 percent of the urban families sent
all of their laundry out. The indications for the decade 1919-1929 are
that an increasing proportion of laundering was being done away from
home, but the data may not be wholly conclusive. The expenditures for
work done in power laundries increased 110 percent from 1919 to 1929,
when expressed in terms of dollars of equal purchasing power,8 while the
6 Establishments producing products valued at less than $5,000 a year are excluded.
In 1919 only about 1 percent of these manufactured products were produced in these
smaller bakeries.
6 For additional material on canned goods, see Chap. XVII.
7 For index numbers of the production of these commodities, see Chap. XVII.
8 Deflating by the general index number of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
removes the influence of the general price level fairly well, but not of the special laundry
prices.
[ 665 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
total population increased 16 percent and the urban population 26 per-
cent. The horse power of machinery installed in laundries increased 111
percent and the number of wage earners 79 percent.9 These changes are
so great in a decade that it hardly seems reasonable that they could be
explained on the basis of changes in standards of consumption or the
increase of laundry prices above general prices, which sample opinion
indicates is probably negligible. The sale of home washing machines has
somewhat slowed up the transfer of laundering from the home.
In cleaning and dyeing the number of wage earners increased 220
percent from 1919 to 1929 and the machine horse power 274 percent.
The growth of this industry may represent a rise in the standard of living
and the resulting increased emphasis on cleanliness, as well as a transfer
of an industry from the home.
As to sewing, the making of men's clothing seems to have left the
home in earlier decades. The per capita production shows little significant
change during the decade under discussion. With regard to the clothing
of women and children, the evidence indicates a possible increase in per
capita production, although perhaps not much more, save in the case of
dresses, than might be explained by a not unlikely change in the standard
of living or a decline in seamstresses not in the employ of manufacturers.
The per capita production of domestic and factory sewing machines has
shown a slight decline during the decade.10 The increases in the outside
manufacture of knit goods and shirts occurred prior to the post-war
period.
Losses in the Occupations of Women at Home. — These shifts of
occupations from the home to the factory must obviously reduce the
economic importance of the woman in the home. The tendency is, there-
fore, for her to seek outside employment or activities. This phase of the
subject is discussed in the following chapter, but it is interesting to
observe here that the entry of women into outside occupations has been
rapid in the decade 1920 to 1930. The number of married women working
outside the home increased 60 percent while the total number of married
women increased only 23 percent, and the number of married women in
the urban population increased 34 percent. The increase of all employed
females over ten years old was 26 percent. Where both husband and
wife work outside the home its economic functions become small indeed,
but the housework of the married woman who works out is a double
burden, since in many cases she does some work at home after business
hours.
9 From 1920 to 1930 the number of laundry operatives increased 99,000, or 82 percent
as shown by the occupation census. But the launderers not in laundries decreased 35,000.
A rough net increase of 64,000 may be claimed, which would be a 53 percent increase
during the decade for laundry operatives. For figures see Chap. VI.
10 See Table 15 in Chap. XVII.
[ 666 ]
FAMILY
The contrast between present day conditions and those when the
household was an economic unit may be visualized by a contemporary
description of households in the isolated mountain regions of Kentucky.11
Churning is still done in 96 percent of these mountain homes, fruit canning
in 99 percent, fruit drying in 86 percent, the pickling of fruits and vege-
tables in 94 percent, hog butchering in 85 percent, sausage making in
35 percent, lard making in 82 percent, the salting of meat in 57 percent,
the smoking of meat in 17 percent, shoe making in 1 percent, shoe repair-
ing in 48 percent, spinning in 8 percent, dyeing in 7 percent, weaving in 1
percent, knitting in 15 percent, quilting in 67 percent, broom making in
22 percent, furniture making in 4 percent and soap making in 76 percent.
There are many household tasks other than these listed. The occupations
of these mountain farm homes are somewhat like those of the typical
home of earlier times.
The family dwelling tells something as to the economic functions
carried on within. Thus the heating in the multi-family dwelling is often
attended to by a janitor who is, of course, outside the family circle, and
many other services are handled by outsiders. In addition, the individual
family usually has less space to care for. In Chapter IX the extent of
construction of multi-family dwellings in comparison with one-family
dwellings is shown by years.12 The data indicate that since the war the
number of homes provided for in multi-family dwellings in cities has
increased, until in recent years about 50 percent of the new homes were in
apartment buildings and only about one-third in one-family houses. There
has been, however, a recession of this tendency since the depression hit
building construction. The tendency toward multi-family dwellings has
been much greater in large urban centers than in rural areas.
Data of dwelling construction in Chicago show that the new apart-
ments constructed are smaller. In the five year period from 1913 to 1917
inclusive, 45 percent of all new apartments approved by the Board of
Health were less than five rooms, while from 1927 to 1931 new apartments
of these sizes were 75 percent of the total. New apartments of more than
five rooms were 25 percent of the construction in the earlier period and
8 percent in the latter period.13 In a study of 18,000 apartments in 1,000
buildings in 26 cities, 4 out of 10 had kitchenettes14 as contrasted with
full kitchens. These data show nothing, of course, about the extent to
which a room is used.
11 Data supplied by Faith M. Williams, of the Bureau of Home Economics, U. S.
Department of Agriculture, from a study of 228 homes in the Kentucky Appalachians in
1930.
12 See also President's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership, Prelimi-
nary Reports I, IX, X, XI, XII, XXIII.
13 Similar trends have been recorded for New York City. See data in Chap. IX.
14 Release of the National Association of Real Estate Boards, Chicago, December 21,
1930.
[ 667 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The Use of Power in Household Production. — The use of gas and
electricity for cooking and other household tasks lessens somewhat the
labor which was previously involved in the use of coal, wood or oil. The
home becomes at the same time more dependent upon an outside industry.
The number of domestic consumers of manufactured and natural gas,15
increased 41 percent from 1920 to 1930 while the number of families16
increased 23 percent. The domestic users of electricity increased 135
percent during the same period. Gas and electricity are used largely for
lighting, cooking and heating. It is interesting to inquire as to other uses
of these sources of energy. Steam as a source of energy and power was not
very practicable for home units. Its adaptation to larger units and the
fact that energy thus generated could not be transported far from its
source led to the transfer of production from the household to the factory.
Electricity, however, can be transported to the household and there
applied to machines for domestic production. One such machine is the
refrigerator for preserving food and making ice. The large number of
refrigerators that have been sold suggests a reversal of the usual move-
ment, for with regard to ice we have a type of production that seems to
be leaving the factory for the home. Many electrical machines for home use
have to do with cooking, as for instance toasters, grills, waffle irons and
percolators. The per capita production of these increased from 50 percent
to 600 percent from 1923 to 1929, though declines are noted for the
despression years since17 1929. The manufacture of electrical washing and
ironing machines per capita as measured in deflated dollars increased
65 percent, 1919—1929; the number of vacuum cleaners per capita
20 percent; and electric flatirons 50 percent. Great increases in production
have also occurred for electric curling irons, heating pads, fireless cookers
and radios.
Despite the service of electricity for cooking, the kitchen seems to be
less used. The number of restaurant and lunch room keepers increased 88
percent from 1920 to 1930, whereas the urban population increased only
26 percent and the total population 16 percent. The number of waiters
and waitresses increased for the same period by 72 percent. The increase
in restaurants might be explained by the decline of boarding houses
(if it were known that they have declined) but that would hardly explain
the fact that waiters increased in numbers faster than did the number of
families. Prior to 1920 delicatessen dealers increased about three times as
fast as the population — since 1920 the statistics have not been collected.
The growth of traveling, commuting and hotel life is no doubt a part
of the background of this movement. If data are used which exclude these
15 Data supplied by the American Gas Company.
16 The term family is here used as it has been defined in the various decennial censuses,
as the "number of persons per economic family."
17 See Table 15, Chap. XVII.
[ 668 ]
FAMILY
factors the results are somewhat different. In a study that was made of
the amount of time spent on the different household tasks, in which all
individuals eating at home were included (with the exception of babies),
it was found that in farm homes each person ate an average of 20.2 meals
per week at home. This means that each person had an average of less
than one meal a week away from home. In the homes in large cities each
person took an average of 2.0 meals per week away from home. This
does not mean, however, that only 19 meals per week were served in the
city homes, for not all of the members were absent at the same time. In
fact the actual number of meals served per week averaged 20.4.
While there may be somewhat less cooking at home than formerly,
it seems probable that the use of electricity is slowing up the rate of
decline. The very rapid growth in the manufacture of electric appliances
suggests that the use of electricity in the home is only in its beginning.
It is used now for lighting, cooking, washing, ironing, sewing, house-
cleaning, refrigeration, ventilation, projection of motion pictures and
many other purposes.
Women's Present Housekeeping Duties. — The outward movement of
duties previously performed in the home arouses curiosity as to just
how much time is spent in household work. Fortunately data are available
on which a reply to this question can be based. Hildegarde Kneeland of
the U. S. Bureau of Home Economics has collected and analyzed time
records kept by housewives showing how much time is spent in different
types of homes on such various duties as preparing meals, washing and
ironing and the like.
One group of homes studied was in cities of over 50,000 inhabitants
and another group was on farms. The city group consisted of the homes of
college alumnae from whom the data were obtained by correspondence.
The farm group was reached through the aid of the extension divisions of
agricultural colleges. By comparing homes where less than 7 hours per
week of outside paid help was employed, probable income differences
were lessened somewhat. When thus restricted the sample for cities was
only 82, since most of these homes employed outside help; for the farms
it was 336. In the average of the city homes 66 hours and 48 minutes
per week were spent on home making duties, while in the average of the
farm homes the time was 63 hours and 32 minutes. Evidently keeping
the home still requires many hours per week although many occupations
have left it. Not all these hours of work were done by the home maker,
however. Her time was 56 hours and 39 minutes in the city homes and 53
hours and 50 minutes on the farms. Most of the help given by others in
these homes came from members of the family, only 1 hour and 50
minutes coming from paid help in the city homes and 14 minutes, on the
average, in the farm home.
[ 669 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
How this time was distributed among the different household tasks
will next be shown, but comparisons here, as above, are further com-
plicated by the fact that the average size of the farm homes, 4.8 persons,
was 23 percent larger than that of the city homes, 3.9 individuals. Com-
parisons of the time spent on the specific duties may thus best be made in
terms of proportions of the total time spent on various housekeeping
tasks.
The percent of time spent on preparing meals and washing dishes was
less in the city homes than on the farms, 33 percent as compared with
43 percent. The allotment for house cleaning was about the same for both,
13 and 14 percent respectively. But washing and ironing required a smaller
proportion of the time in the city than in the farm homes, 8 and 10 per-
cent. Only 23 percent of the city homes did all washing at home, as com-
pared with 70 percent of the farm homes. Mending and sewing also
occupied a smaller proportion of the time of the city household than of the
farm household, 6 percent and 9 percent respectively. On "other care" of
the house, which included the tending of fires, the proportion of time in
the city (3 percent) was about one-half as large as in the rural households.
For the tasks just named which comprise roughly a large part of the
labor spent on the production of essential economic goods and services,
the city homes spent 63 percent of all the time required on home duties
while the farm homes spent 82 percent. The remaining time was spent on
the care of children, purchasing and management, going back and forth
and other home making activities. It is interesting to compare city and
country in regard to the time spent on the care of children. This duty
took 24 percent of the time in the city homes but only 10 percent in the
farm homes. It would be an interesting generalization if it could be said
that the home maker of the city spends more time with her children than
does the farmer's wife. But it is doubtful whether such an inference can
be made, for in these samples one-half of the city homes had a youngest
child under 3 years old as compared with only one-fifth of the farm homes.
On the other hand, there were fewer children in the city homes to care
for. Of the city homes 21 percent had 3 or more children as compared
with 38 percent of the farm homes.
The homes just discussed all had children under 15 years of age. In
other cases where the household consists of home maker and husband only
and where paid help was employed for less than seven hours a week, the
time spent on household duties, 43 or 44 hours a week, was about two-
thirds of what it was in the city and farm homes where there were children.
The one-child households of the cities called for about 45 percent more
hours of home work than did the households of husbands and wives only
and about 80 percent more for those households where there was con-
siderable help employed. A first child adds from 45 to nearly 80 percent
[ 670 ]
FAMILY
to the household duties but the latter figure for the one-child family
households had on the average one additional person for every four
families.
Household duties took less time for those living in apartments than
for those living in houses, especially those duties having to do with meals
and the cleaning and care of the house; the difference was nearly 30
percent in the city group (but the size of the apartment household was
about 30 percent smaller) . In the families where there were only husbands
and wives these duties were 24 percent less in the apartment. Also fewer
meals (per person) were served at home in the apartments than in the
houses, the difference being a little less than 6 percent.
On the whole, despite the inroads which the factory has made on
home occupations, the average family still spends a great deal of time in
cooking meals, cleaning house, laundering, sewing and mending. Since
we have no comparable earlier data it is difficult to make any inferences
from the material presented as to trends. If, however, the domestic
economy of the farm is thought of as containing a larger element of
survival from an earlier cultural situation the differences between the
rural household and the city household, assuming the economic level to be
the same, might be taken to indicate the line of evolution.
Housekeeping still remains one of the major industries18 and home
management is one of its most important occupations. The housewife
still makes her contribution to the family's support through the produc-
tion of goods and services in the home. There are 26 million housewives,
though not all of them have full time jobs, as against 14 millions engaged
in the manufacturing and mechanical industries. The home is a con-
sumption unit, largely supported by the money earnings of the males,
supplemented with increasing frequency by those of the wife and probably
with decreasing frequency by those of the children. A summary of 20
studies shows that 53 percent of women working outside of their homes
for money contributed all their earnings to the family and 39 percent
contributed a part. In a study of sons and daughters in Manchester,
New Hampshire, three-fourths of the girls and two-thirds of the boys
contributed half or more of their earnings to the family.19
But the shifting of home occupations to industry has created many
problems other than economic. Some of the old ideals and standards
for the prospective home maker are gone with the conditions which gave
rise to them. Woman's duties and responsibilities are no longer as rigidly
defined as they were. There is uncertainty about having children, about
18 Kneeland, Hildegarde, "Woman's Economic Contribution to the Home," Annals
of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, May, 1929. vol. CXLIII, p. 33 f.
For trends in proportion of women in housework, see Chap. VI.
19 U. S. Woman's Bureau, Agnes I. Peterson, What the Wage Earning Woman Con-
tributes to the Family Support. Bulletin no. 75, pp. 11-12.
[ 671 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
their care and education if it is decided to have them, about the relative
advantages of housework and work outside the home, about the proper
apportionment of the family income to the various necessities and
luxuries. The many inventions of household equipment, contemporary
experiments in new forms of housing and more scientific methods of
purchasing all hold out possibilities for raising the quality of home service
and perhaps giving it a genuinely professional status.
II. OTHER INSTITUTIONAL FUNCTIONS OF THE FAMILY
Economic functions are always important in the scheme of life, but
there are other activities which are equally important. Some of these are
closely correlated with the economic factors, others are not. Thus the
changing protective and recreational activites of the family are closely
related to its economic organization. Its educational and religious activi-
ties are less so. Under these headings the trend of the other institutional
functions of the family will be presented.
The Protective Functions. — Throughout history the family has
afforded protection to its members. The marriage contract that comes
down from earlier times carries the promise to protect. The family has
traditionally guarded its members against bodily harm from enemies and
against economic insecurity in infancy, illness and old age.
In recent times, the state has assumed important duties in protecting
health. The budgets for public health and sanitation in cities of 30,000
and over have increased about twice as fast as urban families since 1903.
The care for health has also passed in part to hospitals, many of which
are non-governmental. The number of beds in hospitals increased 115
percent in the 20 years from 1909 to 1929. Nearly one-third of all babies
are born outside the home.20 Hospitals have a capitalization exceeded
only by 4 groups of manufacturing industries: iron and steel, textiles,
chemicals and food.21
The protection of the very old members of the family was formerly
rendered almost exclusively by their offspring. With smaller families
and greater mobility of the population they are less often so protected. In
some countries, the care of the aged has been assumed in part by the
state today. Within the decade preceding 1932, 17 states of the United
States have legalized or adopted some form of old age insurance, either
enabling counties to pass enactments, or being mandatory.22 In a sample
study of families, discussed in a later section, there are shown to be fewer
families in 1930 with three generations in one home than in 1900. In
20 "Hospital Service in the United States," Table 1, The Journal of the American
Medical Association, March 29, 1930, vol. 94, no. 13, p. 923.
21 Rorem, C. Rufus, The Public s Investment in Hospitals, University of Chicago, 1930.
See also material given in Chap. XXI.
82 See data in Chap. XVI.
[ 672 1
FAMILY
the sample of farm families 10.7 percent were three-generation families
in 1900 and 6.2 percent in 1930. In the metropolitan area the percentages
of three-generation families were 9.9 percent in 1900 and 7.3 percent in
1930. The number of endowment insurance policies, largely a protection
against old age, increased 800 percent from 1899 to 1929. But equally
rapid has been the growth of other forms of life insurance which may be
viewed as a protection for the family through the aid of an outside
institution.23 Many relatives are cared for by the family and in so far as
the family does not do so, there is a tendency for this duty to fall to
philanthropy or to the state.
The care of the feeble minded and the insane in public institutions
is an assumption by the state of protective functions formerly belonging
to the family and still exercised by many families, particularly outside
the cities. Patients in state hospitals for mental disease increased 110
percent24 from 1904 to 1929, while the number of families increased 67
percent. The feeble minded and epileptics in special state institutions
for such cases increased 45 percent25 in the seven years from 1922 to 1929,
while the number of families increased but 15 percent. These figures,
however, may have been augmented somewhat by an actual increase in
the number of insane in society, by the transfer of feeble minded from
other types of institutions and by a broader definition of feeble mindedness.
The extent to which the family is delegating the protection of life and
property, or at least the extent to which such protection is growing up
outside the family, is suggested by the fact that the total number of
policemen, guards, watchmen, detectives, probation officers, sheriffs,
marshalls and firemen increased 40 percent from 1920 to 1930, while the
number of families increased only 23 percent. The recorded expenditures
for protection to persons and property in cities of over 30,000 inhabitants
in the United States have increased since 1903 somewhat more rapidly
than have families. Of course the property to be protected has increased
also and much of it lies outside the family habitation.
Some of the protective functions recently assumed by the state are
designed to safeguard the family as a unit rather than as individuals.
The state steps in to arrest what might otherwise be a process of dis-
integration. Thus provision for mothers' aid out of public funds, spreading
rapidly over most of the states since 1911, enables mothers, though the
allowances are small, to stay at home with their children. Child labor
legislation and juvenile courts, discussed in other chapters,26 illustrate
23 The Insurance Yearbook, 1930, Life Insurance, The Spectator Company, New York,
p. A-337.
24 U. S. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United
States, 1931, p. 71.
25 Ibid., p. 71.
26 On child labor, see Chap. XV, and on the juvenile courts, see Chap. XXII.
f 673 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
protective functions developed by the state to care for interests that were
formerly thought of as family matters. Compulsory education, truancy
laws and the provision for visiting teachers also represent an assumption
of family functions by government agencies. If the provision and control
of income is thought of as a protective activity, however, the family, at
least in the United States, is still the primary guardian of its members'
interests.
Religious Functions. — Certain religious functions have traditionally
been performed by the family and its role is significant in the inculcation
and maintenance of ethical standards. Marriage is held by many to be a
sacrament and some consider it desirable that a family be formed by
mates with the same church affiliation. Family prayers are apparently a
declining practice. In a study made of parents and children in 1930,
including samples of school children in rural areas, villages, and in cities
of various sizes, about 1 in 8 white American born school children of the
seventh, eighth and ninth grades was found to participate in family
prayers. There was not much difference in the practice of this custom
between the city and the country, though in the very large city the
proportion of children participating was slightly smaller.27
The same study shows that family attendance at church is much more
widespread than family prayers. In the rural area, 85 percent of the
children went to church with their families (in the month preceding the
study) while in the large city group only 40 percent went together to
church. Family reading of the Bible was reported by 22 percent of the
rural white children and 10 percent of the city children. Grace at meals
was the practice in 30 percent of the samples from the large city and in 38
percent from the rural area. It should be observed that these data are for
family rather than individual activities. Data for earlier years are not
available for indicating the trends. Trends may possibly be indicated,
however, by these comparisons between country and city at the same
period or year, for the farm preceded the city in point of time and the
city is often the center of cultural diffusion for the country.
The trend in the religious functions of the family is affected by trends
in religion as truly as it is by trends in the family. There is variation in
this regard between the different religions as well as different areas.
Recreational Functions. — The great growth in commercialized amuse-
ments and the recreational programs of industry, church and state show
that much recreation is provided by other institutions than the family.28
27 From data compiled by E. W. Burgess in connection with a study of the "Function
of Home Activities in the Education of the Child" for the White House Conference on
Child Health and Protection. See also Chap. XX.
28 For a discussion of the recreation needs of the home, see President's Conference on
Home Building and Home Ownership, Preliminary Reports IX, XXIII, XXVIII. See also
treatment of commercial amusements in Chap. XVIII.
[ 674 ]
FAMILY
But this growth is not due solely to a transfer of function. Recreation
has itself grown in institutions outside the home, thus affecting the
relative position of the home in comparison with outside agencies. The
reduction of 15 percent29 in hours of labor between 1890 and 1926 has
made possible more leisure for recreation.
The subject of recreation and leisure time activities is presented in
Chapter XVIII. In general, the material there reveals that nearly all
lines of recreational activity for which comparable data are available
show increases much greater than the growth in the population. The
growth in recreational facilities has been particularly large since the
World War. Thus in Chapter XVIII it is shown that municipal parks
expanded in acreage 240 percent from 1907 to 1930; public playgrounds
increased 450 percent from 1910 to 1930; golf courses increased 207
percent from 1923 to 1930, and tennis clubs increased 170 percent from
1920 to 1930. Baseball attendance at the big league games was only 10
percent greater in 1930 than in 1920, but football attendance more than
doubled, as did the receipts from social and athletic clubs. It is known
that the moving picture audience has grown enormously, though the
attendance declined during the depression following 1929. Municipal
expenditures for recreation have been increasing two and a half times as
fast as the number of families. Factories, too, are providing recreation,
430 of them having been enumerated as so doing in 1928. 30
While most of these facts indicate an overshadowing growth of out-
side recreational agencies, it should be remembered that the home is
still the center of much recreation. A recent survey31 of 908 families
from four different sections of Indianapolis shows that 90 percent of the
homes had back yards, 60 percent were equipped with phonographs, 55
percent had pianos or pianolas, 60 percent subscribed to magazines and
365 husbands or wives played musical instruments.
In the study of the home activities of parents and children previously
referred to, it was found that reading aloud was practiced in the families
of 33 percent of the American born white children in the rural samples,
but of only 13 percent of the children in the large city. The family played
games together in about half the cases in the country and in about 40
percent of the cases in the city. The same percentages held true for singing
or playing music together. Attendance of the family together at the
moving picture was about twice as great in the city (65 percent) as
in the country. Family visits were as numerous in the city as in the
29 Douglas, Paul H. Real Wages in the United States, 1890-1926, Boston and New York,
1930, p. 209.
30 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Handbook of Labor Statistics, 1929 Edition, Bulletin
no. 491, p. 658.
31 Indianapolis, The Leisure of a People, Report of a Recreation Survey, directed by
Eugene T. Lies, 1929, p. 93.
[ 675 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
country; and walking together was twice as frequent among the city
families.
Budgetary studies show a growing proportion of family expenditures
for things other than food, household equipment, rent, fuel and light.32
Much of this increase is undoubtedly for recreation. Certainly the large
expenditure for radios accounts for a portion of it; it has been estimated
that there were some 16,000,000 sets in use in January, 1932.33 A far
larger share has gone for expenditures on the family automobile which is
said to have displaced maid service in the home as an item in the family
budget.
Educational Functions. — The school teacher may be viewed as a
substitute parent in regard to the function of training the child. The
teacher is reaching into the home earlier and taking the child at a younger
age for part of the day. In 1910, 17 percent of all five-year old children
were in school. By 1930, the proportion had increased to 20 percent.
Education is discussed in Chapter VII, but a few of the developments
which throw light on the family will be noted here.
That the teacher is a competitor of the parent (without a feeling of
rivalry, of course) for influence over the child is not readily recognized,
for the teacher aids both child and parent and is in this sense a cooperator
also. Yet the school performs many services which were once the function
of the home. Thus the duties on the farm give some experience in manual
training not found in city homes. The schools tend to develop this func-
tion. The development of manual training in the school may not, how-
ever, exactly balance its decline in the home. Manual training courses
contain new practices not found in household life.
The same generalization may be applied to the whole system of
modern education. The schools teach subjects never taught at home and
so would have added to their functions even though the family had
relinquished none. Farmers' daughters find much that is new in domestic
science courses, even though they also learn much at home. But the evi-
dence indicates that formal education has grown not only by developing
new methods and new subjects but to some extent also by a transfer of
functions from the home. No conclusion is here attempted as to the rela-
tive qualities of education in the home and education in the school. It is
apparent, however, that the city child is on a different footing in regard
to his opportunities for extra-mural education in the household arts than
is the country child. Presumably young women might learn in the modern
city home to do what they will need to do in their adult life as truly as
the farmers* daughters learn in the rural home. Presumably, also, the
city girl's home instructions is far from adequate and her school instruc-
32 See family budget studies given in Chap. XVII.
33 For further discussion of the use of the radio, see Chaps. Ill and IV.
[ 676 ]
FAMILY
tion in domestic science is not wholly a substitute but also a better type
of training.
In a study of 35 high schools in 1929-1930, compared with an earlier
study of 60 high schools in 1906-1911 and 1915-1918 in the middle
west34 there was a 700 percent increase from 1906-1911 to 1929-1930 in
the average number of courses offered in the industrial arts, which includes
such subjects as manual training, mechanical drawing, woodwork and
automobile mechanics, and a 500 percent increase in the household arts
courses. There were no courses in physical education in 1906-1911, but
27 schools offered such courses in 1929-1 930. 35
When society was based on a land economy most of the occupations
had to do with farming and allied activities and were learned at home.
There was then no need of schools for vocational training. Under a
capital economy, with expanding varieties of occupations, the home is
handing over the task of vocational training to specialized schools. The
pupils enrolled in vocational courses of federally aided schools increased
270 percent from 1920 to 1930.
The number of children in schools is still increasing a little faster
than the number of children in the population. In 1900, 59 percent of the
children 5-17 years old were in the public elementary and secondary
schools and in 1928, 80 percent.36 The average number of days these
schools were in session increased from 144 in 1900 to 172 in 1928. The
schools thus kept children away from home about 28 more school days
in 1928 than at the beginning of the century. The number of teachers
has doubled since 1900 which is not true of the number of parents. Married
persons increased about 88 percent but the increase of parents was some-
what less.
It should also be recalled, in thinking of the educational function of
the family, that with the increase of childless families, this function has
correspondingly diminished. The fact that the schools are so universally
desired and that they perform specific functions never performed by the
family has obscured this relationship of institutional functions between
the family and the school.
Family Status. — Another function which the family performs is to
confer upon its members a social status which as individuals they might
not possess. In binding them together in a group it enables them to deal
as they otherwise could not with other groups and agencies. In setting
forth this concept more fully, it may be noted that this function is highly
34 Van Dyke, G. E., "Trends in the Development of High School Offering," The School
Review, December, 1931, vol. XXXIX, p. 737 f.
36 For further discussion of this topic, see Chap. XV. For more detailed treatment of
school curricula, see Chap. VII and the monograph on education.
36 For school attendance by sex, see Chap. VI. See also figures on teachers, enrollment
and attendance in Chap. VII.
[ 677 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
developed in China, where, it is said, loyalty to family has precedence
over loyalty to state. In many countries marriages are often primarily
arrangements between families rather than between the young couples
on the basis of a love impulse, although even under such conditions the
desires of the young may be more often respected than the traditions of
romantic fiction would lead a casual reader to believe. The family name,
at any rate, tends to overshadow the individual. Family esprit de corps
and the family impulse toward mutual protection extend to all the mem-
bers. A break between two members of different families often means a
break between all the members of the two families and difficulties are
frequently settled by the families rather than by the courts. The family
feeling extends to relatives, between whom there is felt to exist an alto-
gether special tie which implies hospitality and financial aid. To be born
into or to marry into a particular family is all important in giving prestige
to an individual. Such is the concept of family status.
That this family function of determining status is changing is obvious,
though it is impossible to find data that can be presented in brief compass
to establish a trend. The evidence is largely to be found in analyses of
social conditions and in case histories of individuals. Certain theories of
the factors causing such changes may, however, be briefly presented.
Property holdings in land are very likely to help to fix family status,
especially in small communities where everybody knows everybody else.
Permanence of tenure also seems to be a supporting factor. Clearly it is
difficult to maintain family status in a high degree when there is much
mobility of population. The growth of large cities, in which the effective-
ness of gossip and other forms of non-legal social control is diminished,
tends also to diminish family prestige. With few exceptions the person-
ality of the individual family is lost in the crowd. The very phenomenon
of rapid change makes the difference between generations appear greater
than the differences between families.
For these reasons it is thought that family status as such has been
declining in importance, though to what degree in recent years can only
be inferred. Loyalty to the club, the school, the city, the team, the state,
competes with loyalty to the family, yet no one of these groups absorbs
the individual as fully as the family did historically. As the forces deter-
mining family status weaken, therefore, the individualization of the
members of the family is accentuated. The knowledge and application
of the facts of heredity might conceivably aid in restoring family status
at some future time, but this development can not be anticipated in any
predictable future.
The individualization of the members of the family finds recognition
in changes in the law, particularly with regard to the wife. In very
early times the law barely admitted the individuality of the wife. The
[ 678 ]
FAMILY
common law held that "the legal existence of the woman is suspended
during marriage. "37 By marriage she lost the right to control her property;
as a married woman she could not sue or be sued in her own name; and
she could not make a will. Her earnings and the earnings of the children
went to the husband as symbol of family authority. These and other
laws illustrate the submergence of the personalities of the wife and
children in that of the family, though in practice there was undoubtedly
much freedom.
The laws, however, have undergone fundamental changes. Before
1900, all states had given married women the right to make a will.
Eight states of the southwest and far west did not follow the ancient
common law but adopted the system of "community property" rights.
But while the property acquired after marriage belongs to both husband
and wife, the husband still controls it.38 The other states before the
close of the last century modified the common law by permitting married
women to own property separately. Since 1900 there have been some
amendments, particularly regarding real estate and court decrees in a
few states. In nine states in 1930 there were still such reservations on
the wife's property rights. Equal guardianship laws were not so early
adopted. In 1900, 14 states had passed co-guardianship laws and by 1930
there were 39. In regard to citizenship there have been significant changes.
The wife's citizenship followed that of her husband (for foreign born
women since 1855 and for American born women since 1907), but in
1922 independent citizenship was given to married women.
The question of domicile becomes more important in an age when
people move about freely. The recognition of separate domicile of the
wife, largely for purposes of voting, holding office, or serving on juries,
has been accorded by laws passed in eight states since the World War.
In other family laws there are still some states which do not accord
the same rights to a married woman that they do to a single woman.
Though in general married women can make contracts, in perhaps half
of the states there are some restrictions, however slight, on this right.39
In one state a wife's earnings are her own only if she is living apart from
her husband; and in one state the father can will away from the mother
the custody of the child. There are still other evidences of the fact that
the individualization of the married woman is not complete under the
law.
37 Blackstone, Sir William, Commentaries on the Laws of England (Wm. Hardcastle
Browne, ed.), P- 145.
38 Except that in four of these states the wife must join in the conveyance of real estate.
In the summary of the laws which follow, it is not possible in the brief space allowed to
give the various exceptions and detailed minor modifications.
39 National League of Woman Voters, A Survey of the Legal Status of Women in Forty-
eight States, Washington, D. C., 1930, p. 9.
[ 679 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
III. THE ORGANIZATION OF FAMILIES
Contrary to a belief which is frequently expressed the percentage
of the population of the United States that is married has been increasing
in recent years. In 1890 the percentage of the population 15 years of
age and over that was married was 55.3 and at successive ten year
intervals the percentages were respectively 55.7, 57.3, 59.9, reaching
60.5 in 1930. This increase in the percentage married is due in part to
the fact that the proportion of the middle aged has increased during
the period, for this is the age period in which the highest proportion of
married are found. But if there had been the same percentage of middle
aged in the population at the successive census periods that there was
in 1890, there would still have been an increase in the percentage of
married persons. The percentages would then have been 55.3 in 1890,
56.8 in 1920, and 57.6 in 1930.40 In other words there would have been
an increase in marriage even if the age distribution of the population
had remained the same. The rate of increase in the number of marriages
was less in 1930 and in 1931 as is usually the case during a business
depression.
Early Marriage. — This increase in the percentage of married persons
is found especially among the younger people. Thus among the young
men and young women, 15-19 years of age, there were 15 more married
out of every 1,000 in 1930 than in 1890 and for the ages of 20-24 there
were 73 more married out of every 1,000. While this increase in marriage
has been large for the young in the 40 years prior to 1930, in the decade
prior to 1930, the percentage of young persons married, 15-24 years old,
has decreased slightly especially for boys and young men. It should be
noted that this trend in early marriage is observed only for modern
times. There are no comparable data for exact comparisons with an
earlier era. Factors in the recent trend toward early marriage may be
the increasing economic well being of the past decades down to 1929 and
the probable increase in the use of contraceptives. The formation of
families earlier in life is characteristic of the foreign born as well as
of the native born, of the Negro as well as of the white, of the city dweller
as well as the farmer. The most satisfactory biological age for marriage
is generally admitted to be somewhat later than the possible biological
age and the most satisfactory age on the basis of education and social
experience is later still. Objection to marriage at extremely early ages
is being manifested. The evidence on early marriage for the decade
1920-1930 suggests that the movement toward earlier marriage which
has been going on at least since 1890 may have stopped and a reverse
trend begun.
40 Groves, E. R. and Ogburn, W. F., American Marriage and Family Relationships,
New York, 1928, p. 161.
[ 680 ]
FAMILY
Cities and Marriage. — The economic functions of the family on the
farm are more numerous than in the city. The household duties of wives
and children in the country are probably greater also. It is therefore
not surprising to find the ratio of families to adult population greater
in the rural areas than in urban. It has been estimated that the urban
community (of 2,500 inhabitants and over) acts as a deterrent to
marriage to the extent of about 10 percent.41 There are thus persons in
the cities who would be married if they lived in rural areas. In the very
large cities the discouragement is probably greater. That the city is
more hospitable to the non-family woman is indicated by the fact that
of all single women, 20-34 years of age, 66 percent live in urban com-
munities, while of the single men of the same age, only 59 percent live
in cities. Similarly, the proportion of widowed is greater in the city. It is
apparently easier for a person without a family to live in the city than
in the country.
The Size of the Household. — The functions performed by the family
household are not unrelated to its size. The average size of the household
for a sample of families from different communities was 4.30 persons in
1900, 4.07 in 1920 and 4.01 in 1930. (It is customary to speak of fractions
of a person, for instance 4.30 per family, when what is meant is that there
are 430 persons per 100 families.) These data are taken from unpublished
schedules of the U. S. Bureau of the Census, since until 1930 the Census
did not publish data on the size of the family, though they did publish
the statistics on the size of the household in 1900 and at each decade they
have published the number of "persons per family" which seems to be
about 0.1 person larger than the size of the household, which of course is
larger than the size of the family. Also data on the family other than the
size of the household were taken from the unpublished census schedules
for the sample communities and are the basis of many conclusions which
follow. It is desirable, therefore, to give a short account of this sample
study. The data are for native whites of native parents selected from
four middle western states in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Families
with only one mate present were included, but no family was taken in
which the wife was 45 or more years of age (except as they were tabulated
as relatives living with married children). Two or more families living
together were counted separately as families but as one household. The
samples are approximately equal in size (15,000 families) and are from
four different types of communities, namely, farms, small towns of
around 5,000 inhabitants, cities of from 50,000 to 150,000 population
and from Chicago, representing the metropolis. The figures just given
on the size of the household are an unweighted arithmetic mean of the
four samples of equal size from the east north central states. They are
41 Groves and Ogburn, op. cit.t Chap. XIX.
[ 681 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
not quite typical of the United States as a whole. The farms, in particular,
are under-represented, hence the sizes are a little smaller than for the
United States as a whole and the decline shown by the sample is a little
less since there has been a movement of population from farms to cities.
This analysis of census data was concerned also with other aspects of
the family than its size, and frequent references will be made to it; in
these references it will be designated as the sample family study. Further
descriptions of it will be made as occasion demands.
The percent decreases in the household for the different types of
areas from 1900 to 1930 for the sample studied are as follows: farms 0.6
percent, small towns 3.5 percent, cities 4.5 percent, and the metropolis
21.2 percent. For the United States as a whole the Bureau of the Census
publishes figures called "persons per family"42 which is very near to the
figure for what is defined here as persons per household.43 Thus in 1930
the persons per family in the whole United States were 4.1 and the persons
per household were 4.0. In 1900, the corresponding figures were 4.7 and
4.6. For the United States the "persons per family" were in 1900, 4.7, in
1920, 4.3, and in 1930, 4.1, a decline of 13 percent over the 30 years and a
decline of 6 percent in the decade 1920—1930. These declines may be
considered as the same as those of the household. Perhaps a greater
decline may have been expected, since the birth rate has been falling
more rapidly. But the decrease in the size of the family cannot be in-
ferred from changes in the birth rate alone. There are other factors,
notably the death rate, which has been declining also. The decrease in
the size of the household over a very long time, since the eighteenth
century, has also probably not been as great as may be popularly as-
sumed. It appears not to have diminished more than one-quarter since
the close of the Revolutionary War. Combined samples of rural and
town family households in non-slave-holding communities of 1790 give
a household of 5.9 persons, while somewhat similar samples in 1930 give
a household of 4.4 persons. The family may have been smaller than usual
in 1790 because of the war influence.
In 1900 each 100 households had 63 servants, relations, lodgers and
boarders, but in 1920 the number had dropped to 49 and in 1930 to
only 44, 33 of whom were relatives, which may perhaps be indicative of
the declining economic functions of the family. The size of the household
varies in different regions. It is largest in the southern states: 4.41 in
42 The census counts the occupants and employees of a hotel, boarding house, lodging
house, if that is their usual place of abode, and all inmates of an institution, as well as a
person living alone, as a single family. But these exceptionally large or small families are
relatively few in number.
43 A household includes not only parents and children, but relatives, servants, boarders
and roomers as well, except that no family was included in the sample study which had
more than three boarders or lodgers.
[ 682 ]
FAMILY
the south Atlantic states in 1930 and 4.29 in the east south central.
(The household here used is about .1 person larger than the household
as defined for the sample study in the preceding paragraph. It is the
"private family" of the terminology of the U. S. Bureau of the Census
of 1930.) On the Pacific coast it was smallest (3.38) perhaps due in part
to recency of migration. In the east north central states, from which region
the sample study was made, the size was 3.88. In New England and the
north Atlantic states it was 4.00. For the mountain states it was 3.91. In
general, the household is larger in the south and smaller in the west.
The Size of the Family. — More important than the size of the house-
hold, perhaps, is the size of the family consisting of parents and children
alone, or, if no children, of husbands and wives, or widowed persons.44
The average size of the family living at home in unbroken families for
the four types of communities of equal sized samples combined was 3.67 in
1900, 3.58 in 1920, and 3.57 in 1930, a decline of only 2.7 percent in
thirty years and an inappreciable decline in the last ten years. The
average size of the family on the farms in the sample studied increased
3 percent, those of the small towns decreased 3 percent. In the cities
the decrease was 4 percent and in the metropolis 11 percent. Thus the
decrease in the size of the family has been neither great nor rapid.
The changes in the size of the family were not uniform among the
different areas.45 In the farming area the average number of persons in
the unbroken family increased, the average size being 4.21, 4.20 and 4.32
for the periods 1900, 1920 and 1930. But this apparent increase may
be due to the more advanced age of the farm population in 1930 or to
migration, for when families with home makers of the same ages are
compared, the increase is no longer evident. In the small towns a slight
decrease is indicated by the figures 3.82, 3.72 and 3.72. The decline
becomes significant in the cities, however, particularly in Chicago, where a
decrease of 11 percent is noted over the 30 year period and a decrease of
9 percent between 1920 and 1930. The figures are 3.22, 3.12 and 2.85 for
the three periods. It is not improbable that part of this more rapid
decline in the great city may be due to the movement of families with
children into suburbs beyond the city limits.46 In the urban centers
represented by cities of around 100,000 population, the decreasing size
of the family is shown by the figures for the three periods as follows:
3.57, 3.50 and 3.43 persons per family.
44 See discussion of the size of the family in relation to buying, Chap. XVII.
46 The numerical size of family refers hereafter to families where husband and wife
are living together, unless otherwise stated. The word family refers, unless otherwise noted,
to the parent-child, husband-wife found living together at the time of the census. It does
not include other relatives, boarders, lodgers, roomers, visitors or servants.
46 Indirect evidence of this is found in the analysis of age and sex groups by zones
given in Chap. IX.
[ 683 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Clearly, the size of the family varies in the different types of com-
munities. If the size of the farm family in 1930 is represented by 100,
then the size of the town family would be represented by 86, the size of
the family in the cities by 79 and in the metropolis by 66. The expectation
is that the size of the family will continue to decrease. The possible lead in
falling birth rate set by the cities may be followed by the smaller com-
munities. While there is, of course, a theoretical mathematical lower
limit to the size of the family, the practical limits will no doubt be reached
much earlier. And these practical limits may be expected to vary from
period to period.
The Diversification of Structure. — The family is not only decreasing
slightly in size but its structure is becoming diversified. The families are
a little younger in the cities than in the villages and in the country.
There are more children in the suburban type than in the large cities.
The differences in the make up of the rural family and the family in the
very large city are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1. — THE DISTRIBUTION PER THOUSAND OF THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF FAMILIES
IN CHICAGO AND ON FARMS, 1930°
(Where the wife is under 45 years of age — and the husband when listed without a wife is under 50 years — in a
sample of native whites of native parents in the east north central states)
Type of family
Metropolis
Farms6
Husband and wife only .
398
163
Husband, wife and 1 child.
229
205
Husband, wife and 2 children
122
202
Husband, wife and 3 children
42
135
19
214
63
25
Husband and 1 child
5
6
2
5
1
5
Wife only
72
14
Wife and 1 child
31
12
Wife and 2 children
11
6
5
8
Total of all types of family
1,000
1,000
0 Original schedules of the U. S. Bureau of the Census.
* When the farms have the same age distribution as the metropolis, the frequencies of the different types of
families on the farms are affected only very slightly.
This table shows about two and a half times as many unbroken
families without children living at home in the metropolis (Chicago)
as on the surrounding farms. In the large city only 6 percent of the hus-
[ 684 ]
FAMILY
bands and wives living together have more than 2 children while in the
rural area 35 percent have more than 2 children. Husbands living alone
and wives living alone added together are about three and a half times
as numerous in the metropolis as on the farms and wives living alone are
five times as numerous. The family structures for the towns and for the
cities of 100,000 inhabitants are intermediate between those of the farms
and of the metropolis.
In the foregoing table, the metropolis is referred to as if there were a
type family for this size of community. There are in a great city, however,
many different kinds of families: various types of immigrant families,
Negro families, families in the rooming house areas and others.47 It is as
though the various types were assorted into the various sections of the
city.
Size of Families by Occupation Classes.48 — The average number of
parents and children per family varies not alone by type of community
but by occupation classes as well. The professions, with 3.01 persons per
family in all 1930 communities, show the smallest average size of family
in the sample study from the census schedules made for this report. The
families of the clerical group are about the same in size, with an average
of 3.04. The proprietary group, consisting of owners of stores, business
managers, etc. are next with an average of 3.25 persons. The families
of the skilled and semi-skilled workers follow with averages of 3.51 and
3.47 persons, while among the unskilled workers the average number of
47 For a fuller description of the types of urban families see E. R. Mowrer, Family
Disorganization, An Introduction to a Sociological Analysis, University of Chicago, 1927.
48 The social-economic classifications are comprised largely of the occupations listed
below. A complete list may be obtained from the author.
Professional. — Architects, artists, authors, editors, chemists, clergymen, dentists,
designers, lawyers, physicians and surgeons, teachers, technical engineers.
Proprietary. — Bankers and brokers; proprietors, managers and officials in manu-
facturing, trade, transportation and communication; wholesale and retail dealers, builders
and contractors; hotel keepers and managers; officials and inspectors in city and county
governments.
Clerical. — Agents and canvassers; bookkeepers, cashiers and office clerks of all kinds;
salesmen and commercial travellers; ticket and express agents; mail carriers and clerks;
railroad conductors; inspectors in trade and transportation; telephone and telegraph
operators; semi-professional attendants and helpers.
Skilled. — Bakers; blacksmiths; carpenters; compositors, linotypers, electro typers;
electricians; engineers, stationary and locomotive; foremen and inspectors in manufac-
turing, transportation and communication; iron workers; jewelers; machinists; masons;
mechanics; millers; molders; painters and paperhangers; pattern and model makers;
plumbers; ropers; shoemakers; stonecutters; tailors; tinsmiths; upholsterers; locomotive
firemen; firemen and policemen.
Semi-skilled. — Semi-skilled operatives and apprentices in all types of manufacturing
and mining; chauffeurs; street car motormen and conductors; brakemen and switchmen;
boatmen and sailors.
Unskilled. — Laborers in manufacturing, trade, transportation, communication,
public service, domestic and personal service; draymen and teamsters; building laborers;
deli very men.
[ 685 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
persons per family was 3.91. The families of the farm owners and the
farm renters averaged 4.48 members and the families of the farm laborers
4.32 members.
The changes in the number of persons per family between 1900 and
1930 varied markedly among the different groups. The greatest decline
was among the families of the professional group, where it was 10 per-
cent. The proprietary group was next with a 6 percent decline and the
clerical group followed with a decrease of 5 percent. The families of the
skilled and semi-skilled workers showed a decrease of 3 percent, while
those of the unskilled decreased by 1 percent. The families of the farm
owners also decreased 1 percent, but the families of the farm renters and
of the farm laborers increased, the former by 5 percent and the latter by
13 percent. Among families with wives in the same age group, 35 to 39
years, the families of the farm owners and of the farm renters declined
somewhat in average size, although the farm laborers did not follow this
trend.
The comparisons between the occupation classes in 1930 can be
shown more precisely when only families with wives in the same age
group, in this case 35 to 39 years, are compared. If for these ages the size
of the family in 1930 for all occupations is written as 100, then the sizes
of the families of the clerical group and of the professional group are
85, of the proprietary class 88, of skilled labor 100, of the semi-skilled
108 and of the unskilled 118. In the agricultural groups the family of the
farm owners would be represented by 120, of farm renters by 130 and
of farm laborers by 140.
Size of Family and Value of Home.49 — There is some interest, partic-
ularly on the part of the eugenist and the social worker, in knowing to
what extent the poorer families are larger. In the past, as is generally
known, they have been larger, but if birth control spreads further among
these groups the differential may dimmish or cease to exist. The fact
that the families of unskilled laborers were larger than those of skilled
laborers in 1930 suggests that there still exists such a differential. The
newly recorded information on rents and value of homes owned taken
by the U. S. Bureau of the Census in 1930 enables one to make some obser-
vations along this line, since the value of the home is correlated with
income. A common category of classification for rent and owned homes
was obtained by multiplying the monthly rental by 100 to get the value,
and vice versa.50 In the towns there is clearly a decline in the size of
49 See President's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership, Preliminary
Reports XX, XXIII, XXV.
60 This method of equating rents and values is only approximate. The error is probably
a little large for the higher values. But the error in such a process of equating is within the
limits of the conclusions drawn, it is thought. Higher rents are indicative of higher incomes
taking the size of the family as it is found. See W. F. Ogburn's "Analysis of the
[ 686 ]
FAMILY
families where the wives are of the same age, as the rent increases. Thus
in the towns, with a rental value of less than $10 a month, the average
size of family when the wives were in the 40-44 age group was 5.22 persons
and for rental values of $10-$15, $15-$20, $20-$30, $30-$50, $50-$75 and
$75-$100, the sizes of the families were 4.56, 4.66, 4.15, 3.82, 3.81 and 3.42
respectively.51
In the cities of around 100,000 inhabitants of the sample study, the
sizes of the family for the different rental classes beginning with the
$15-$20 class were 4.60, 4.33, 3.96, 3.68 and 3.50. For the rentals of from
$100-$ 150, and over $150, there was a slight increase in size of family,
the number of persons being 3.70 and 4.05, but the numbers of families
in the sample for these two larger rental groups were only 79 and 40,
respectively. In the metropolis, the size of the family declines as the rents
increase, up to $100, and then, as was the case in the cities, the size of
the family increases as the rents go up. The number of families paying
higher rents is greater in the metropolis than in the cities. The sizes of
the family, beginning with the $30-$50 rents, are 3.60, 3.04, 3.00, 3.45
and 3.74 respectively. The figures show that in the higher income classes
the family (living at home when the mother is 40-44 years old) tends to
get larger. In the cities, where there are many renters, the families may
adjust size of family and size of apartment more readily. In New York,
the gas company reports that the aggregate of the lengths of residence
in one place divided by the number of families shows an average move
about every two years.
Families Without Children. — For homes that are without children,
the problem of home making is somewhat different. The responsibilities
of the mates are to each other rather than to children and the household
tasks are less. The facts, therefore, as to the trends in the number of
families without children are important. In 1930, 31 percent or nearly
one-third of all unbroken families (with wives under 45 years old) in the
four communities had no children at all or none living at home. In 1900
the percentage of no-child families was 28.
The proportion of unbroken homes without children shows consider-
able variation according to size of community. In the sample of unbroken
farm families 18 percent or about 1 in 6 families in 1930 were without
children living at home. Among the small town families, the proportion
was 25 percent or 1 in 4 ; in the cities it was 33 percent or 1 in 3, while in the
metropolis 49 percent of the families or virtually every second one was
without children.
Standard of Living in the District of Columbia in 1916," quarterly Publication of the
American Statistical Association, March, 1919, vol. XVI, New Series no. 125, pp. 374-389.
61 The numbers of families in each rental class were 122, 210, 274, 462, 548, 241 and 73,
respectively. The number of cases paying the larger rents was too small to be included.
[ 687 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The rural area shows a decrease of about 5 percent in the proportion
of families without children since the beginning of the century, the towns
and cities show respective increases of 8 and 14 percent up to 1930 but
in the metropolitan area the increase amounted to 30 percent. These
comparisons are not very refined, for the age distribution may be different
now from what it was in 1900. The great increase in childless families in
the metropolis is probably due in part to the moving of families with
children to the suburbs as is indicated by a recent census release.52 This
report, analyzing the population characteristics of 96 metropolitan dis-
tricts, shows that, with four exceptions, the percentage of children under
15 years of age in the population is higher outside than in the central
city.
Among women 40-44 years of age, at the close of the child-bearing
period, with husbands living, 1 in 4 in 1930 had no children at home. But
not so large a proportion have never borne a child. In 1900, a year in
which the census collected data comparable with the sample study, about
three-fourths of the wives with no children living at home had never
borne a child. If this proportion held in 1930, then 18 percent of all wives
40-44 years old had never borne a child. But since deaths are fewer and
since perhaps children stay at home longer, it may be that about 1 in 5
wives of this age period with husbands living have had no children.
Problems Suggested by the Size of the Family. — Many of the prob-
lems due to the decrease in the size of the family are the same as those
occasioned by the falling birth rate. These are factors of population,
however, rather than of the family, and as such are discussed in Chapter
I. The small family system does, nevertheless, create social problems
of its own. For instance, there are many wives without children, as
shown by the data of the preceding paragraph. In other families with
only one or two children the mother devotes only a few years to child
rearing. Families without children may almost be classed as a different
type of family. Such situations particularly affect the activity of wives
both inside and outside the home, and have a definite bearing on the
stability of marriage. Other problems of the small family concern the
personality of the children and their relations to their parents. These
problems are discussed later in the chapter.
IV. THE DISORGANIZATION OF FAMILIES
A certain amount of disorganization has inevitably resulted from the
changes in the structure and functions of the family. The broken home,
defined as one in which one of the mates has died or withdrawn, is of great
concern to society, for when a breadwinner or a home maker dies or leaves,
the home as a functional institution suffers and may have to be supple-
62 On the growth of suburbs, see Chap. IX.
[ 688 ]
FAMILY
mented by some outside agency. The seriousness of the breaking up of a
home is of course greater where property, productivity, the child or viola-
tion of the moral code is involved. The maturing and departure of children
from the home may be said, in a sense, to break it too, but this is a normal
and unavoidable phase of family life.
The Extent of Broken Homes. — The number of broken homes varies
greatly with the ages of the husband and wife. It is to be expected that
among the older people there will be many widowed. There are few golden
weddings. On the other hand the breaking up of a home before the wife
has passed the age of 44 or the husband has passed the age of 49 may be
regarded as a deviation from the normal expectation at the time of
marriage. The following data, therefore, deal only with cases in which
the wife was 44 years of age or younger and the husband, if he were the
survivor, was 49 years of age or younger. The data were taken from the
special sample study on the size of the family, described more fully in
preceding paragraphs.
The average percentage of all families that were found to be broken in
1930, for the equal sized samples from the farms, towns, cities and metrop-
olises, was 14.6 percent or about 1 in every 7 or 8 families recorded.53 In
interpreting these figures, it should be remembered that one family
breaking up by separation yields two broken families. The percentage
of broken families would have been much larger had older age groups
been included. On the other hand, the percentage of broken homes would
have been somewhat smaller had the whole United States been included,
since the sample studies do not contain a large enough proportion from
the rural areas to be representative, and there are fewer broken homes
in rural regions than in cities.
In the study of parent and child relationships made by Burgess and
previously referred to,54 23 percent of the white school children of the
seventh, eighth and ninth grades were found to come from homes where
the parents were not living together. But his sample was for older parents
and was more largely from cities. Clifford Shaw finds a larger percentage
of broken homes for public school children in Chicago, 10 to 17 years of
age in 1930,56 but here again the parents may have been somewhat older.
63 By selecting only native whites of native parents the number of broken homes was
somewhat exaggerated. For instance, some of the surviving males may have had wives
who were not native born of native parents, and hence would not have been taken for the
sample study if the wife had been living, for only those families were chosen where both
husband and wife were native born of native parents. This exaggeration was cut down
by multiplying the number of broken homes by a coefficient determined for each area,
which was based upon the proportion of mixed marriages especially determined for each
community.
64 See footnote 27.
66 U. S. National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement, Reports, VI,
no. 13, The Causes of Crime, vol. II, 1931, "Social Factors in Juvenile Delinquency."
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
In the areas of low delinquency, 26 percent of the homes were broken
while in the high delinquency areas the proportion was 29. The sample
family study undertaken for this report showed that 14.3 percent of the
homes in 1900 were broken, revealing no significant change since that
time.
The number of broken homes varies greatly according to the size of
the community, the cities having twice as many as the country. In the
metropolitan area 19.0 percent of the homes were broken and in the cities
of 100,000 population 16.7 percent were broken, while in the villages the
proportion was 14.7 and in the rural area it was 8.1. The larger percentage
of broken homes in the cities may be due in part to the change of residence
of widowed and divorced persons to the city from the country. There
are, however, more divorces granted to couples living in the city as is
shown in a later paragraph. In none of these areas has there been an
appreciable change in the percentage of broken homes since the beginning
of the century.
Since the death rate has fallen so markedly, it may seem strange
that the proportion of broken homes has not been altered. The rising
divorce rate, however, has entirely offset the influence of the changing
death rate. Homes broken by death have decreased from 7.6 percent in
1900 to 4.9 percent in 1930 and the movement occurred in all the dif-
ferent sized communities. The percentage of homes broken by divorce,
annulment or separation,56 however, has increased from 6.7 percent in
1900 to 9.8 percent in 1930. In 1900 the number of homes broken by
separation or divorce was about equal to the number broken by death;
in 1930 two were broken by separation or divorce to every one broken
by death. One out of every 10 homes in this sample was broken by separa-
tion or divorce. In Chicago the proportion was slightly larger, being one
in 7 or 8, while in the rural regions it was only one in 23.
Children and Broken Homes. — Society's greatest concern with broken
homes is with those having children. Since fewer children are being born
56 The number of homes broken by separation alone has never been published by the
census. The word separation as used here means a condition where a husband or a wife,
living and not divorced, were not recorded by the census enumerator as living with a mate
at the time. The instructions to enumerators were to record temporary absentees, not
where found but at their usual place of abode. Travelers and persons away on short trips
were supposed to be recorded as living at their home, and hence their absence would not
be noted as a separation. However, there may have been some cases of temporary absentees
not being recorded when they should have been. The census enumerators with wrhom the
author has talked seem to think that the recording of one mate only when the other was
not noted as divorced or dead showed a genuine separation in the usual sense of the word.
The word may not always mean a separation instigated by marital discord. Separation
may begin, where labor moves about frequently, without a decision based upon unhappiness
with mate, but may grow into a case of desertion. The word separation may be acquiring
new meaning, with a dividing line more difficult to draw.
[ 690 ]
FAMILY
to the average family it might be inferred that broken homes with children
have become less frequent. As a matter of fact the percentage of broken
homes with children among all homes with children has dropped only
from 10 percent to 9.2 percent between 1900 and 1930. The percentage
of broken homes among the families without children was 25.4 percent,
in 1930 — nearly three times as large as the percentage with children. The
presence of children is thus an important factor in holding a family to-
gether. Homes may be broken by death or by separation or divorce.
Where death is the cause, the percentages of homes with and without
children are nearly the same, 4.3 and 6 percent respectively. But where
separation or divorce is a cause, there is a marked difference. For only 5
percent of the homes recorded as having children were found to have
been broken by divorce or separation while the percent was 19.4 among
homes without children.
The differences indicated may be misleading. They do not represent
the percentages of marriages that were broken by divorce or separation
but rather the proportion of all present homes that are broken. Thus
two homes, one with children and one without, both broken by separation,
would yield 4 broken homes, one with children and 3 without.
It is also a significant observation that the percentage of homes with
children, considered as a group, which are broken by separation or
divorce, though still much lower than the percentage of those without
children, shows a tendency to rise. For the whole group the increase was
from 3.4 percent in 1900 to 4.9 in 1930; for families living on the farms
from 1.9 to 2.3 percent; for families in towns, from 3.7 to 5.4 percent;
for city families, 3.8 to 5.7 percent; and for families in the metropolitan
area, from 4.2 to 6.5 percent.
Families with Low Incomes. — At the higher income levels the wife
or the children of a broken home are likely to be provided for from the
family income and do not ordinarily become a charge on the state. At
these levels divorce may be relatively more frequent than desertion,
since there is money with which to pay the necessary expenses of the court
proceedings. At lower income levels husbands lacking funds to pay for
divorce may simply desert their families. There are no adequate data to
show whether desertion is increasing or not, but since divorce is increasing
it is very likely that desertion is also, particularly because of the increas-
ing ease with which the wage earner may move from one locality to
another. The impression of the family societies seems to be that desertion
is increasing, not only among husbands but also among wives. The move-
ment of Negroes to northern cities appears to have increased the fre-
quency of desertion among Negro families. In recent years desertion
has created new problems both for social workers and for the state. Since
1910, 26 family courts have been established in the United States to deal
[ 691 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
with situations arising from non-support and from desertions of wife and
children.
The failure of the poorer families to function well is often brought
to light because of the dependency occasioned. Hence family life has
become of especial interest to social workers, as is shown in Chapters
XXIII and XXIV. Family welfare societies have increased during the
period studied, for the case worker finds that it is often possible not
only to prevent the breaking up of families but by increasing family
stability to solve the individual problems of the child and the adult.
The various forces of society previously described which operate to cause
either a disorganization or a decline of family life fall with more shattering
force on the poor than on the rich and on the immigrant than on the
native. The disruption of family life by divorce, however, is less frequent
among the foreign born than among other classes of the population.57
The stream of immigrants has been retarded, however, and at the same
time real wages rose during the decade following the war.
The Increase in Divorce. — There may be marital discord without
divorce and the growth of divorce may be no more an index of the increase
of marital unhappiness than the growth of hospitals is an index of the
increase of sickness. Nevertheless, for religious or other reasons, divorce
has received more attention than any other type of broken homes.
In 1900 there were 20 divorces for 10,000 married persons; in 1930
there were 36. Since 1880 the number of divorces per 1,000 population
has increased at the rate of about 3 percent a year. But during the decade
1920-1930, considered separately, the rate of increase was only about 1.5
percent. Does this decline in the rate of increase argue for still further
declines in the future and perhaps an ultimate stabilization? A better
answer can be made when further examinations are made of the factors
causing divorce. But if the present divorce curve is regarded as part of
the long time curve, further declines, though possible, cannot safely be
predicted. There have been other periods when the rate of increase of
divorces per 1,000 population was low, as between 1900 and 1910 when it
was about 2 percent per year, yet following this period it rose to about
5 percent. In only 5 years, one being 1930, of the 43 years from 1887 to
1930 has the number of divorces been less than in a preceding year and
these were years of acute depression. Divorces tend to decline in hard
times and increase in good times, although the reason for this correlation
has not yet been shown.
Divorces have been increasing since 1900 in the various countries
of the world. The only exception is Japan, where new legislation is making
divorce more difficult. The rate of increase in foreign countries as well as
in the United States has been somewhat retarded since the World War.
67 Groves and Ogburn, op. ciL, p. 371.
[ 692 ]
FAMILY
The United States has the highest divorce rate of the countries for which
statistics are available, with the possible exception of the U. S. S. R.,
which had in 1926 the same divorce rate per 1,000 inhabitants as did the
United States.58
That there were 72 divorces per 10,000 married couples in 1930 in-
dicates what proportion of marriages ended in divorce in a particular
year, but it does not indicate the number that ended in divorce in all
the years of exposure. The chances of divorce throughout a married life-
time may, however, be estimated. In 1930 there was 1 divorce for every
6 marriages and this approximates the number of marriages contracted
in 1930 which will end in divorce. It would be exactly that if the duration
of marriage and the divorce rate (for each year of married life of an
original married population) remained the same and if the same numbers
were married each year. But since it is not unlikely that the divorce rate,
the most changing of the above factors, will increase, the nurnber of
marriages contracted in 1930 which will end in divorce will probably
be more than 1 in 6 — a fact that the brides and grooms marching to the
altar today hardly realize.
Regional Differences. — The differences in the divorce rates in the
different parts of the United States are as great as they are in the different
countries of Europe. For the states along the Atlantic seaboard, New
England and the middle and south Atlantic states, the rates per 10,000
married persons in 1930 were 24, 14 and 24, respectively, while on the
Pacific coast and in the adjoining mountain states the rates were 60
and 70. In the central states the rates were intermediate between those
of the coastal regions.
The increases in the number of divorces per 1,000 married persons
have been greatest on the Pacific coast and in the mountain states and
least on the Atlantic seaboard. This means a greater spread between
the different states in the matter of divorce rates. That is, the states
with low divorce rates are further separated from the states with high
divorce rates than at the beginning of the century. Apparently there is
less uniformity than there was before the World War when there was
agitation for uniform divorce laws. If in each state the incidence of
divorce increased at the same rate, there would be this greater spread;
in fact, the spread actually increased at the same rate that the divorce
rate did.59 Clearly the trend is not toward greater uniformity in the
divorce rate.
58 U. R. S. S., Administration Centrale de Statistique, Mouvement de la Population de
I'URSS en 1926, vol. I, Livraison 2, Moscow, 1929, p. 8.
69 The standard deviation of the divorce rates of the 46 different states (omitting South
Carolina with no divorces and the state with the greatest number) was 1.1 in 1900 and 1.8
in 1930, an increase in variability of 64 percent, which was almost the same as the increase
(62 percent) of the average divorce rate for all the states of the two periods, 2.38 and 3.85.
[ 693 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Divorce Laws.60 — The changes in divorce laws have some bearing on
the increase in divorce. The causes for which divorces may be granted
and the period of residence required in a state before a divorce may be
had are the aspects of divorce legislation most important in which to
note changes. The most significant change in the legal causes for divorce
has been the increase in the number of states (from 36 to 44 between
1905 and 1930) permitting absolute divorce because of cruelty, the ground
most often advanced. Only four states in 1930 disallowed cruelty as
ground for absolute divorce.
Non-support, for varying lengths of time, usually a year, has been
added to the lists of grounds for divorce by 6 states61 in this period and
abandonment by 1 state, making 25 states in all that accept non-support
as a cause. One state has added abandonment as a legal cause and 4 new
states recognize prolonged absence, from 5 to 10 years, as a cause. Ten
states have been added to the 4 that in 1905 granted divorce because of
insanity. There have been a few other changes regarding miscellaneous
causes, such as drug addiction, vagrancy, and attempt on life, some states
adding these as grounds and some removing them. On the whole these
changes in the laws have been in the direction of extending the grounds
for divorce.
Changes in the period of residence, on the other hand, have tended
to make divorce rather more difficult. Thus, six states have increased
residence requirements.62 On the other hand, Arkansas in 1931 reduced
the period from one year to 90 days. Nevada followed by lowering her
requirements to 6 weeks and Idaho lowered her residence requirement to
90 days. About 5,000 persons from other states obtained divorces in Reno
in 1931. 63 This means that about 2.5 percent of all divorces were granted
in Reno.
Causes of Divorce. — The changes in the causes alleged by the plaintiff
for divorces granted are somewhat in accordance with the changes in
the legal grounds for divorce. Thus, more and more divorces are granted
for cruelty. In 1930, 42 percent or nearly half were granted for this cause
as compared with 22 percent in the period 1887-1906. Desertion as a
stated cause is diminishing, although 29 percent of all divorces were
still for this cause in 1930 as against 39 percent in the earlier period.
60 See also discussion in Chap. XXVIII.
61 Alabama, California, Montana, New Hampshire, Ohio and Oklahoma have added
non-support as causes, while Tennessee has given it up.
62 Idaho increased the period of residence from 6 months to 1 year in 1919; Nebraska,
6 months to 1 year, 1929; Oklahoma, 90 days to 1 year, 1921; South Dakota, 6 months to
1 year, 1929; Texas, 6 months to 1 year, 1925; and Wisconsin, 1 year to 2 years, 1929.
63 This figure is estimated as follows: If Nevada had the same divorce rate as Wyoming,
a western state with a longer residence requirement for divorce than Nevada, then Nevada
would have had 200 divorces instead of 5,260. The estimate is necessarily rough, but is
sufficiently accurate for the present purpose.
[ 694 ]
FAMILY
Adultery as a cause cited (but not necessarily adultery in fact) has de-
clined by one-half, being the ground in 8 percent of all divorces in 1930.
About 4 percent of the divorces are granted because of neglect to provide;
this cause shows little change over the years. Drunkenness was given as a
cause in 4 percent of the divorces of 1887-1906, and for 1.7 percent in
1930. This percentage shows a slight rise, however, since 1922, when it
was a cause in 1 percent of the cases. The other 15 percent of the divorces
are for various combinations or miscellaneous causes. It may be concluded
from these data that divorces are being sought on less serious grounds
than formerly.
It should be remembered that these causes of divorce are often
stated solely because they are the legal grounds acceptable to the courts.
The underlying causes or even the surface causes may be quite different.
Thus very common causes of marital differences are quarrels over money
matters, relatives,64 and leisure time. But records are not kept of such
causes, though social workers and other advisers testify to their preva-
lence. Other causes are on quite a different plane. Thus the growth of
the city population is a social cause (but hardly so cited by individuals),
for the divorces are more numerous in the city than in the country.65
So also, the possible weakening of the control of religion over marriage
may be a cause. In some religions divorce is not permitted. The opposition
to divorce was modified by the Methodist Episcopal Church in 1928, but
not by the Catholic Church, as is discussed in Chapter XX. In 1930
the United Lutherans increased their restrictions, as did the Presbyterians
in 1931. 66
Divorce and Children. — There are two other aspects of divorce that
are of especial social significance. One concerns the children. The per-
centage of divorces in which children are involved has changed very
little in recent years. During the period 1887-1906 there were children
reported in 40 percent of the divorce cases. By 1922 the percentage had
declined to 34. Within the past decade, however, the percentage reporting
children has risen again to 38 percent in 1930.67 It will be recalled that in
64 The number of families living with relatives or providing a household for relatives
is quite large. Among those families that had been in existence less than 5 years, there
was an average of 44 relatives per 100 families, which is somewhat more than the ratio of
relatives to families, 33 to 100, when marriages of all durations are considered. These data
are from all communities of the sample study previously referred to. This does not mean
that 44 families are living with relatives, since there may be more than one relative in a
number of the families.
65 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Marriage and Divorce, 1924, 1926, p. 33.
66 Cahen, Alfred, Statistical Analysis of American Divorce, Columbia University, New
York, 1932, p. 56.
67 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Marriage and Divorce, 1930, 1932, p. 38. The divorce
papers report children, or report no children, or there may be no report on children. Thus
5 percent made no report on children in 1930 and 10 percent made no report on children
[ 695 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
a previous section it was shown that the percentage of all families with
children which were found broken by divorce or separation was increasing.
The causative factors in the situation are, no doubt, changes in the birth
rate, changes in the death rate and changes in the divorce rate. But the
final result is that up to the present not much change can be discerned
in the percentage of divorcees reporting children.
Divorce and Duration of Marriage. — The question of children and
divorce is also related to another social aspect of the question, namely,
the duration of marriage before divorce. Whether divorce, if come it
must, should come early or late is a subject on which there is difference
of opinion. Suggested reforms in divorce legislation have had to do with
preventing hasty action in filing divorce papers rather than with pro-
longing the term of marriage when divorce is inevitable. A point made
against such a prolongation is that it undoubtedly diminishes the woman's
opportunity to remarry.
In any case, discontented married couples are not waiting so long
as formerly to get a divorce. Thus, in 1930, 37 percent of the divorces
occurred within 5 years after marriage, as compared with 28 percent dur-
ing the period 1887-1906. Separations ordinarily occur some months or
years earlier than divorces and there are probably a good many more
separated husbands and wives at any one time than there are divorced
persons. For Chicago in 1920 data indicated that there were 4 separated
husbands and wives to one reported divorced.68 The ratio is probably not
so high since the number of divorced is under-estimated. As to remarriage
after divorce, the figures are not reported. Most of the attempts to
estimate the proportion of divorced persons who remarry place it as
around one-third.69 Case studies indicate that there is a period of travail
of spirit after separation and divorce.70
V. THE PERSONALITY FUNCTIONS
In the preceding sections the changes in the ways the family func-
tions as an institution were first shown. Then the changes that have
occurred in its structure were discussed. The personality functions, by
in 1922. Probably, when there is no report on children, there are no minor children. This
uncertainty, however, makes it necessary to use caution in interpreting slight trends in
this matter.
68 In the special sample study of families made for this report divorced and separated
were not distinguished. It is possible, however, to make some estimates of the proportion.
Thus in 1920 in Chicago the ratio of widowed to divorced or separated in the special
sample study was 135 to 100. If the same ratio held for the whole city there would have been
48,000 divorced or separated. The census published the number of divorced persons as
10,567. Therefore there were about 38,000 separated husbands and wives, according to the
definition of the word here used and previously discussed.
69 Cahen, op. cit, Chap. VII.
70 Waller, Willard, The Old Love and the New, Divorce and Readjustment, New York, 1930.
[ 696 ]
FAMILY
which are meant, in the main, those which affect the relationships of
parents and children on the one hand and of husbands and wives on the
other, remain to be considered. The functions of the family may be viewed
not as institutional, but rather as personality functions. The economic
functions and the protective functions, for instance, not only produce
goods and services, but they may also affect the personality. But in the
main, the personality functions are those that affect the personality
relationships of parents and children and of husbands and wives, and quite
generally by procedures not emphasized very much in the discussion of
the institutional functions. To what extent have these personality func-
tions of the family been lost or transferred to other institutions? What
changes have been taking place in recent years that affect these personal
relationships ?
Parents and Children. — In the section on the educational function
it was seen that the content of much of the subject matter that children
learn is being given by the schools. To some extent the schools help
also to develop personality. But the fundamental personalities of children
are pretty well formed by the time they go to school. Between birth and
the age of six, the year when the child is generally first exposed to the
influence of formal education, he comes in contact chiefly with the other
members of the family group and is permanently affected by them.
They are the stimuli to which he responds, many times each day and
every day in the year. Such a repetition and limitation of stimuli cannot
but leave on the infant's plastic nature a reaction pattern involving
affection, fear and rage, the development of the ego, the quickness of
response, feelings of inferiority, inhibitions, etc. The influence of the
mother, who has repeated and frequent contacts with her offspring, is
probably greater than that of any other member of the family, with that
of the child's brothers and sisters, if there are any, coming next.
The importance of the influence of the parents and of the early home
life is easier to demonstrate than to analyze and measure. Nor is there
any concise factual evidence as to the changes in the intra-family relations
during recent years. In the absence of such data recourse must be had to
the rather unsatisfactory device of sketching some of the changes that
probably affect these relationships, without attempting to demonstrate
what the effects are. Further tendencies are reported in Chapter XV.
It is clear, in the first place, that the diminution in the size of the
family must affect family relationships in regard to children; eliminating
them, necessarily, when no children are born or adopted; altering them,
certainly, when the number of children is limited. It is sometimes stated,
a bit naively perhaps, that the mother of a large family spreads her
affection out, whereas the mother of a small family concentrates on the
smaller number of offspring. It may be that in small families the children
[ 697 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
receive extra large doses of affection. This might be true of an only child,
of the oldest child or of the youngest in a series. This would possibly
lead to a delay in "psychological weaning" which might affect a child's
self-reliance. It is thus argued that the chance of developing the so-called
"spoiled child" is somewhat greater in small families. First born children,
irrespective of the size of the family, appear to contribute more than their
proportionate share to the group of so-called problem children, as well as
to the genius class.71 Children in small families are more variable, that is,
produce both more successes and more failures.72 Neuropathic tendencies
are unusually frequent among only children.73 The apparently greater
proportion of insanity among the first born may be owing either to order
of birth or to the small family.74 These facts give no evidence as to
whether the differences indicated are due to biological or to early environ-
mental factors. The role of the parent-child relationship cannot be
determined, though there are many theories that give weight to it.
It may be that the size of the family has not decreased sufficiently
to produce a measurable psychological effect.75 In the case of the one-
child family the statistics give no help at all with this problem, for,
strange to say, the percentage of one-child homes has neither increased
nor diminished since 1900, remaining around 25 percent during the whole
period for the sample study of families.
The broken family also affects the parent-child relationship, but as
has been seen the percentage of broken families has not changed during
the thirty-year period studied. Marital discord in families undoubtedly
has an unfortunate influence on the life of the child, although accurate
evidence as to the precise nature of this influence cannot be cited. Though
the percentage of divorced families has increased there are no data which
will aid us to determine whether or not marital discord is increasing in
families still technically unbroken.
The employment of nursemaids for children must affect the parent-
child relationship by its introduction of an additional person with no
71 Thurstone, L. L. and Jenkins, R. L., Order of Birth, Parent-age, and Intelligence,
University of Chicago, 1931, p. 120.
72 Unpublished data collected by the author.
73 Thurstone and Jenkins, op. cit., p. 121.
74 Ibid., p. 120.
75 In this connection it is often argued that whether an adult will be neurotic or not is
determined by his early childhood. Whether or not so extreme a statement is true, environ-
mental influences are admittedly important in causing nervousness f6und later in life.
The insane in state hospitals have increased from 16 per 10,000 in 1904 to 23 in 1929. Though
this fact may not mean an increase in insanity, yet neuroses and psychoses are undoubtedly
very prevalent. The chances of a boy or girl of high school age being placed in a hospital
for the insane — conditions remaining as they are — before he dies is, for New York state,
1 in 22 (see W. F. Ogburn and Ellen Winston, "The Frequency and Probability of
Insanity," American Journal of Insanity, vol. XXXIV, p. 286), and of course the chances
for developing lesser degrees of psychological instability must be much greater.
[ 698 ]
FAMILY
ties of kinship into the limited social circle of the child. The percentage
of families with nursemaids is, however, too small for this factor to affect
the general trend. Relatives in the household are another factor of im-
portance, but though 33 relatives are found with each 100 families in
the sample family study there has been no appreciable change in the
number over the period under survey.
Another change which may affect the parent-child relationship is
the increase in the number of urban families, and in particular the in-
crease in the number of those living in apartment houses. The absence
of play space around the home and the limited space within the apart-
ment itself may mean closer contacts between parents and children. On the
other hand the clustering of homes in the city would seem to provide
more playmates than would be available in the country, and thus the
monopolistic home contacts of the child would be subject to more inter-
ference. In the study of parent and child relationships previously referred
to76 rural children appear to be more critical of their parents, and testified
to less demonstration of affection; and their statements indicated that
they confided their joys and sorrows to their parents less than was the
case with the city children. Among city families there has been in recent
years a marked increase in the percentage of married women who work
outside the home. For those of them who have young children the parent-
child relationship is affected by the fact that during their absence they
must leave the child in a day nursery or a kindergarten, or under the care
of a nurse, neighbor or relative. Even when the mother remains at home
the child, after he reaches school age, may divide his allegiance among
play groups, gangs and clubs outside the home. The city streets are
believed to provide many opportunities for children at later ages to
escape family supervision.
Another factor, already mentioned, in the parent-child relationship
is the widening of the gap between the generations by education and by
social changes. In the case of immigrant families and their adolescent
children this effect is especially noticeable. Such differences, joined with
the growing individualization of the members of the family, and the
complexity of the new urban environment, reduce the conscious control
of the parents over their children. While psychiatrists speak of the prob-
lem of the "over-protected" child there are many families where there
exists the problem of the under-protected child, especially during the
adolescent years.
The foregoing fragments of evidence indicate some loss of the family's
personality function in so far as it relates to children, together with some
76 National Council of Parent Education, Ernest W. Burgess, "Family Relationships
and Personality Adjustment," in Papers on Parent Education Presented at the Biennial
Conference, November, 1930, New York, 1931, p. 24.
[ 699 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
changes in its nature. To counteract in part the trend away from the
home there are some indications that the function of child rearing is being
relinquished by institutions and re-assumed by the home. The general
opinion in child-placing organizations is that the demand by families for
children to be adopted is growing and that the drift is away from
the care of children in orphanages. Unfortunately, comprehensive
and comparable statistics bearing on this point have not yet been
collected.
Husbands and Wives. — The personality functions affecting the
relationship of husbands and wives would appear to be inherent in the
family and non-transferable. Yet husbands and wives may have close
friendships with others outside the family circle and the opportunities
for such friendships may increase with improved transportation facilities
and the growth of cities. These outside relations may extend to sexual
intimacies. But there are no reliable statistics on prostitution, much less
on more informal liaisons. The bans against segregated districts for prosti-
tutes, against street solicitation and against organized houses of prostitu-
tion have become more effective since pre-war years and may indicate a
weakening of this ancient institution.
The changes in the occupations presented in Chapter VI — and in
various other chapters — suggest a number of ideas as to possible influences
on the personality relations. Thus the increased travel incident to busi-
ness tends to separate the members of the family for varying lengths
of time. Night work is an influence for deviation. Work on transportation
lines as railroads and buses cuts across family association. For many
migratory or casual laborers family life is impossible. There is also indica-
tion that frequent moving about of families increases the number of
problem children, probably because of disruptions of group associations.
The occupational developments also probably make desertion easier.
The increasing number of college students means that many more wives
(and husbands) have had a college education. It is not clear what this
fact may mean for family life, but presumably it means a better equip-
ment for meeting some of the issues of life.
Changes in the happiness or unhappiness of married couples are
difficult to measure in the mass. Attempts have been made, nevertheless,
to assess happiness in married life by means of small sample studies. In
one such study, among 1,000 married women, largely graduates of
women's colleges, who had expressed a willingness to cooperate, 872
reported their marriages as happy and 116 as unhappy.77 In a more
77 Davis, Katherine Bement, "A Study of the Sex Life of the Normal Married Woman"
in the Journal of Social Hygiene, January, 1923, vol. IX, no. 1, pp. 1-26. A letter of inquiry
sent to 10,000 women produced over 1,000 expressions of willingness to fill out the question-
naire dealing with various sex aspects of marriage as well as the question of happiness.
[ 700 1
FAMILY
recent study78 7,412 marriages were rated according to the degree of
happiness and unhappiness by a number of different persons who knew
the couples "very well." Seventy-two percent were rated as happy or
very happy and only 9 percent as unhappy or very unhappy. Comparison
of these two studies reveals very little difference between self -rating and
rating by others on the question of happiness in marriage. Such studies,
however, show reported opinion rather than reality, and it is difficult
to know how far the two are parallel, though there may be a high correla-
tion. In any case it is interesting to note that about three-quarters of
the families of these groups from the well to do classes are reported as
happy. Another inadequacy of this material is that it fails to show
trends. That so large a proportion of these educated groups are reported
as happily married is, nevertheless, an important observation lying at
the heart of family problems.
The later of the two studies indicates no substantial difference between
the city and the country, for 71 percent of the rural families and 73 per-
cent of the urban families were reported as happy or very happy. This
comparison may be valid, even though the error in recording happiness is
very large, provided it is equally large for both types of communities.
The fact that there is no appreciable change revealed from rural to urban
communities suggests that there may be no appreciable change over the
years.
The facts as to trends in marital harmony are meager and a search
for changes in the factors producing disharmony are even less satis-
factory. Nervous persons are said to have more difficulty in becoming
adjusted to marriage and nervousness is said to be on the increase. But
neither of these statements has been proved. It is also said that the speed
and diversions of city life are a strain on family relations, but this again
is only an assumption. Theories regarding trends in health, age of mar-
riage, income and sex knowledge as factors are even more speculative.
They are only mentioned to indicate the status of the data and to suggest
categories in which it would be desirable to have knowledge.
The relationships of husbands and wives are not encompassed wholly
under the word affection. Older persons, for instance, sometimes marry
to extend aid and comfort to one another. But such needs of family life
may be lessened with the declining economic importance of the household
and with increased contacts and services outside the home.
Moreover, the personality relationships in family life usually extend
beyond the immediate group to include relatives and friends of the whole
family or of its individual members. The general opinion is thought to
be that transportation and city life weaken the ties of kinship and that
78 Lang, Richard O., The Rating of the Degree of Happiness or Unhappiness in Marriaget
Chapter 1, Thesis for the Master of Arts Degree, University of Chicago, 1932 (unpublished).
[ 701 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
friendships and group contacts are made somewhat more frequently
on an individual and less on a family basis than formerly. Nevertheless,
the statistics presented earlier show that during the 30 years following
1900 the number of relatives living with families remained about the
same. And the family is still a significant group in making contacts with
others, even though the previous discussion of family status shows this
function to be declining.
From the foregoing analysis it is apparent that there has been only
a little loss in recent years of the personality functions of the family,
except perhaps in regard to children of school age. The loss in institutional
functions has been greater, so great that by comparison the personality
functions appear to have risen in importance.
The trends in regard to the personality functions of the family are at
present impossible to record. One might speculate on the growth of the
influence of outside organizations and groups such as the club, the moving
picture and others. But trends in these influences are difficult to measure.
There is more evidence of how society is reacting to trends than there is
of the trends. These reactions are the efforts to solve the family problems
as they concern human relationships and are discussed in the concluding
section.
VI. EFFORTS TO DEAL WITH FAMILY PROBLEMS
The problems that emerge from the data on trends affecting the family
fall rather naturally into three groups: those involving the family as a
social institution; those dealing with children in the home; and those
concerning the relationship of husbands and wives. Some of these prob-
lems have already been discussed or indicated in previous sections.
Problems of the Family as a Social Institution. — Although industry
took away from the family many of its traditional functions, never-
theless some of its economic aspects obviously remain. Not the least of
these is the furnishing of shelter.
Since dwellings are usually made of materials which outlast those who
build them there are many sections in cities and rural districts where the
homes survive from earlier periods. In some instances this fact hinders
adjustment to city planning and makes it difficult for housing to keep
pace with constructional conveniences, such as plumbing or air condi-
tioning equipment.
The provision of adequate housing, especially for that large portion
of the population least favored economically, remains difficult.79 Capital
is not attracted to this field, where, particularly when land values are
not increasing, there are no large profits. With the rate of increase in
79 See President's Conference on Home Building and Home Ownership, Preliminary
Reports I-IX.
f 702 1
FAMILY
such values falling off as population grows less rapidly the incentive is
less than it used to be.
To meet this situation housing experiments on a large scale are being
carried out in several cities with both economic and architectural ends in
view. Financing for individual purchase is also made easier by organiza-
tion. The purchase of homes from a central source operating on a basis
of mass production holds possibilities of cheaper as well as better building.
On the other hand, the difficulties of renting and ownership are aggra-
vated by the increasing mobility and restlessness of the population.
The effects on the family of the modern trends in housing are not
easy to measure. The functions and structure of family life are undoubt-
edly modified, however, when play space for children is limited, as it
is in the present type of apartment house in cities, or, in a different way,
when the multi-family dwelling affords opportunities for common dining
rooms, laundries and nurseries.
When all these influences are considered the important task of
properly housing the population is seen to need foresight and planning.
The economics of the home have been shown to be significant, despite
all the changes in modern life. There are still many goods and services
produced in the home for use therein. The home is also the greatest user
of consumer's goods and wives collectively are a very powerful purchasing
group. As conditions alter, however, the necessity for adjustments in
home management increases. To meet this need there has been a rapid
increase in courses in domestic science. Yet the preparation of young
women for the economics of family life is not without its difficulties.
The doubt in the minds of many prospective wives as to whether they
will work outside the home for pay or confine themselves to domestic
management is not conducive to adequate preparation for married life.
The work of the household is quite varied; Amey Watson lists 50
separate tasks which need to be organized.80 Efficient management,
in home as in factory, requires division of labor and the proper assign-
ment of duties to members of the household arid to employees, if any.
Another phase of the problem of management which is not dissimilar to
that found in a factory is the budgeting of money. Installment buying
is said to have encouraged budgeting habits, and some stores selling on
the partial payment plan retain specialists to advise purchasers on the
handling of finances.
Budgetary guidance has long been a function of social workers dealing
with the poorer families and of teachers of home economics. Apparently
this kind of assistance is being increasingly given. In 1932 the directory
of the Family Welfare Association listed 376 societies, three-quarters
80 Watson, Amey E., "The Reorganization of Household Work," The Annals of the
American Academy of Political and Social Science, March, 1932, vol. 160, pp. 165-178.
[ 703 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
of them organized since 1900, 60 in the first decade, 137 in the second,
74 in the third and 12 since 1930, all furnishing services to the family.
Further assistance is given to the urban family by legal aid societies.
Chiefly of service to individuals, these societies do give advice on the legal
problems of the family.
Society gives much more attention at present to preventing the break-
ing of families than it does to safeguarding their formation. Something,
however, has been done to prevent the marriage of children, a problem
thought of as usually involving girls rather than boys. Twenty-six states
permit marriage of girls below 16 years; and 10 of these as low as 12 years.
The trend is to raise this minimum age, 16 states having increased it
since 1906. All of the states require the consent of the parents until the
daughter is 18 years old and one-fourth until she is 21 years old, 8 states
having raised or established the age since 1906. Though child marriage
is a sufficiently serious problem to be carefully studied81 only about one
and one-half percent of the girls 15 years old are married. The other
side of the picture is that though some women marry too young others
do not marry at all. About one woman in 10 reaches the age of 45 without
marrying,82 and few marry for the first time after 45 years is reached. But
though society may take steps to prevent premature marriages it does
nothing to prevent delayed marriages or failure to marry at all. This
problem is still left to the individual.
Hasty marriages have been recognized as an evil in many cases,
particularly in the cities, where young people may know little about each
other or about each other's families and where opportunities for them
to meet at each other's homes are limited. Several methods have been
employed by different states to prevent undue precipitancy and to
induce a more serious approach to the important step of forming a family.
Twenty-two states in 1932 required an advance notice of a few days
before the issuance of a marriage contract, as contrasted with two
states in 1906. In 1932 sixteen states required that either one or both
parties apply in person for the license, while there were only 4 such
state requirements in 1906. Twenty states had residential requirements
in 1932, although of the 20 states that had such requirements in 1906,
3 had abandoned them by 1932. In 1906, 11 states forbade evasion of
state laws by out of state marriage; 3 additional states were added to the
list, making the total 14 in 1932.
Further attempts to safeguard the family are found in the pro-
hibition of marriages of the insane and feeble minded in many states.
Eight states require by recent action that the male applicant be free
from venereal disease, though it is said that these laws are frequently
81 Richmond, Mary E., Child Marriages, Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1925.
82 Groves and Ogburn, op. cit., Ch. XXI.
[ 704 ]
FAMILY
evaded. Eugenic considerations in regard to mental defects and mental
disorder will be important for marriage in the future. Now they find
only limited legal expression. Knowledge regarding heredity and custom
growing out of it may be expected to precede legislation in this field.
The problem of preserving or increasing the economic functions of
the household is greatly affected by inventions. While they have taken
much productive work from the family and placed it elsewhere, yet
sometimes, as is the case of electric appliances, inventions favor reten-
tion of work by the home. The inventions which destroyed domestic
industry were based upon power that could not be distributed from its
source. The electric wire, however, has made a power supply available
for home machines. The problem of balance between home and outside
industry is in part one of efficiency of production. Is the saving on
home output greater than interest on capital investment, the cost of
the labor and power involved and cost of repairs of home machinery?
An electric mangle for an urban family of two, or a milking machine for
a single cow would hardly pay. Technological advance and economic
organization will determine the trend, save in those instances where
there is a counterbalancing psychological satisfaction in home produc-
tion, as may be the case, for example, in cooking at home. Detailed evi-
dence on trends has been presented in earlier sections. Prediction is
difficult. It may be that electricity is slowing up the migration of work
from the home, but most of the evidence points to the further transfer
of functions from the home.
Child Rearing in the Home. — An earlier section on parents and
children revealed the problems inherent in the relationship, but nothing
as to how they are being approached. Parental education is the term
applied to the new movement which constitutes the main attack on the
problem. In earlier times, when life was much the same from generation
to generation, rules for bringing up children were developed in detail
and readily disseminated. But the new and changing perplexities of
modern life require education for parenthood. Three hundred married
alumnae were asked in what subjects they felt themselves least prepared
for their family life.83 Three-quarters replied, "In child training."
Education of parents is truly as broad as education for life, since it
requires fundamentally the development of the total personality. But
certain specific subjects may be taught, as, for instance, child psychology,
psychiatry and the sociology of the family. Evidence of beginnings is seen
in occasional courses in training for parent education in the lower schools
and in the interest of home economics groups in such instruction. Many
similar courses are given in colleges, usually attended by women more
83 Lindquist, Ruth, The Family in the Present Social Order, A Study of the Needs of
American Families, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 1931.
f 705 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
than men. The development is extending to university extension courses
for adults, many of whom are parents, and for others, various types of
education such as the press and the radio are being utilized.
There are a few demonstration clinics in connection with nursery
schools. The National Council of Parent Education, embracing 61
member organizations, is active in providing study groups. Another
development of recent origin is the visiting teacher, dealing with problems
of the school child through the family. Although there were only 250
visiting teachers in 1929, they were distributed in 35 states, and it seems
possible that this agency may develop broad and important services. A
further link between the parent and the school is provided by the Parent
Teacher associations, the membership in which increased from 190,000
in 1920 to 1,500,000 in 1931.
The progress of parent education is also stimulated by the rapid
growth of research in the field of child training, although rich in meaning
as these studies are they still lack the precision desirable for general
diffusion among parents. Some new information has been transmitted
to parents through the maternal and infant hygiene societies, whose
efforts in behalf of the physical well being of the mother and young child
are important also in aiding the development of personality. In 1929, the
close of the period for the extension of federal aid to these agencies under
the Sheppard-Towner Act of 1921, some 3,000 prenatal and child health
centers had been established and over 3 million visits had been made by
nurses to the homes of mothers and babies. State aid, granted under
various mothers' pension laws, helps to maintain 200,000 children in
their homes, it is estimated. Child guidance clinics, of which there are
now about 700, are necessarily concerned with the family as well as with
the child and offer great possibilities for the future. The juvenile court
often has contact with family affairs affecting the parent-child relation-
ship. These and many other agencies dealing with the child are discussed
in Chapters XV and XXIII.84
From the foregoing summary it is seen that various agencies of society
outside the home are assisting the family in the performance of its educa-
tional function toward its young children. While some of these agencies
tend to supplant the household, the effort is generally toward aiding
child and family at home. For the near future at least, it may be expected
that the family, though often with some outside aid and advice, will bear
the major responsibility in developing the personality of its children,
especially during the preschool years. The task is an increasingly difficult
one, however, and society may be expected to give more attention to
this vital question, particularly because of a diminishing supply of chil-
dren. So far, efforts in this country to improve methods of rearing children
84 See also findings of White House Conference on Child Health and Protection.
[ 706 1
FAMILY
have not taken the form of bringing up the young child outside the indi-
vidual home, away from its parents, as has been attempted, for example,
in Soviet Russia.
Society's Concern with Marital Problems. — The problems of husbands
and wives reach their crises in separation or divorce and maintenance of
strict divorce laws represents society's major effort to deal with them.
The more fundamental problem for the future stability of the family is
to ward off the disharmony which leads to separation. To achieve this
successfully requires a much greater knowledge than we at present possess
of inherited variability, habit and the relationship of physiological and
psychological behavior. There are other linked and disturbing factors of
a more social nature, involving such things as money, relatives, manners,
drink and conflicts over the use of leisure time and recreation.
There is a growing need not only for more knowledge in this field but
for agencies to disseminate such knowledge. To some extent such agencies,
largely unorganized, already exist. Advice on marital problems is fur-
nished by some of the professions — ministers, doctors, teachers and
lawyers. The extent of their services is unknown, but the clergy manifestly
have considerable interest in marital questions. Among the 104 birth
control centers in the United States in 1932, some found time to give
advice on marital matters. A number of family clinics dealing with a
variety of marital and sex factors have been planned during the past
decade, but so far as can be learned, only three have been established.
Literature on the subject of birth control and the married sex life has
shown a marked increase in recent years and is apparently less tabooed
than formerly, although its distribution is somewhat hampered by existing
laws.
But attention should not be confined to married persons. Some sort
of preparation for family life is needed for the unmarried, for most of
them will marry. College courses, university extension lectures and high
schools deal with some aspects of this problem. Adequate testimony to
the need of careful guidance is the popularity of the theme in novels,
plays, moving pictures and the columns of feature writers in the daily
press.
The relationship of husband and wife is clearly at the center of the
problem of the modern family, since most families have children with
them for only a part of married life or not at all and since so many other
functions of the family have declined. The stability of the future family
is not clearly seen. It rests a good deal on what research will discover, and
the wide dissemination of the results.
Summary of Major Problems and Future Trends. — The diminution
of household activities continues and there are few signs of their increase
for the future. How far the movement will go it is difficult to foresee.
[ 707 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The most uncertain element is mechanical invention which did so much
to change the home and which might do much to restore the activities of
the household. Of the inventions now known the electrical are most
significant for some possible restoration of these activities or the slowing
up of their decline. The preparation of meals and the care of young
children are carried on so little outside the home at present that there is
no reliable basis for predicting any substantial departure in the near
future. If these activities leave the individual home they will be provided
for by government and industry, as in schools and restaurants, or by
groups of families cooperating in community nurseries and kitchens.
The first problem is one of deciding what is wanted and in this field
there is difference of opinion. The production of cloth by the factory
and the growth of schools for children over six years of age are not
regretted, but the inroads of group nurseries and restaurants into home
life may meet with some objection.
Meanwhile the households, varying from the farm of an isolated region
to the small city apartment, still represent a very large economic force
involving enormous expenditures of productive energy for many millions
of the population. In this period of rapid transition there is a certain
amount of disorganization and the problem of efficient home management
is an important one.
The great changes raise the whole question of the future work of
women. Many now have only part time work at home duties. Suggestions
for better adjustments are for a higher standard of household work, for
part time or full time paid jobs for wives in industry, or for greater
participation in volunteer civic work.
Another large problem of the home is the training of the very young
child; a problem which is being appreciated, judging by the increasing
interest in it. As the number of children becomes relatively smaller, the
attention given to this problem will be greater. It is brought to the fore,
also, by the increasing employment of married women, the diminishing
size of the family and research in psychology.
Finally, a major problem of the family is its instability. Divorce is
still increasing. Although the rate of this increase in the past decade has
slowed up, a study of the long time trends gives no confidence in a predic-
tion that the rate of divorce itself will decrease in the near future, though
it must do so in the long run. Increased divorce is due to the weakening of
the functions which served to hold the family together, and no doubt of
public opinion, which would appear to be correlated with the exercise of
these functions. If, say, six of these eight functions or bonds are weakened,
then more divorce is to be expected, unless there is a corresponding
strengthening of the other two. The future stability of the family will
depend much more on the strength of the affectional bonds.
[ 708 1
CHAPTER XIV
THE ACTIVITIES OF WOMEN OUTSIDE THE HOME
BY S. P. BBECKINRIDGE
WOMEN'S role in the American community has undergone
redefinition during the past thirty years. As delineated in the
preceding chapter on the family, the development of mechanical
power, the introduction of new inventions, the rise of specialized services
outside the home, the changing manner of living and the decreasing size
of the family have altered or eliminated many of women's earlier house-
hold activities. The chapters on the family, on the people as consumers
and on labor groups make it clear that the occupations of women in the
home have been of fundamental importance in helping to produce the
sum of commodities or services available and likewise in determining
the ways in which those commodities and services should be enjoyed.
With the departure of many productive activities from the home, how-
ever, large numbers of women through necessity or choice are seeking a
new place in the economic system and the shift is not being made without
revolutionary changes in attitudes with regard to women's responsibilities
under the changed surroundings of their lives. Their new position,
together with the granting of suffrage, is giving women a share in the
entire life of the community. This chapter is concerned then with the
activities of women outside the home : their employment for wages, their
position in government and their organizations.
No comment is needed at this point on the subject of the activities of
women in their own organizations or in government, both of which will be
considered at length in later sections. With reference to women's employ-
ment, however, a few preliminary remarks will facilitate the later pre-
sentation. It should be remembered that there have always been women
whose support was not derived from family attachments. There have been
and still are four ways in which women obtain a living: (1) in the tradi-
tional relationship of marriage, which still implies an obligation on the
part of the husband to provide those things suitable to the standard of life
in which he places a woman and in return for which there is still the
obligation to give marital companionship and to perform domestic
services; (2) in the less frequent support of single women by relatives;
(3) in the increasing legitimate employment for wages; and finally (4) in
prostitution.
[ 709 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Some of these methods of obtaining a livelihood are discussed in other
chapters. In the chapter on shifting occupational patterns an attempt is
made to estimate the number of single women not economically self-
sufficient, and reference is made in the chapter on the family to the
changing proportion of married women. With regard to prostitution, the
absence of reliable data has made it impossible to present satisfactory
conclusions. The present chapter will discuss the third method listed,
namely that of women's increasing legitimate employment for wages
outside of the home, together with the attendant problems of training,
choice of occupation and reward in wages or salaries.1
Although attention is called in the chapter on the family to the
changes that have occurred with reference to the law of the family group,
there are several aspects of this subject, in its relation to the employment
of women, on which it is worthwhile to add further comment. Under the
older family organization the services of both the wife and the daughter,
or their wages if they were gainfully employed, belonged to the husband
and father. Whether work was done within or outside the home, the goods,
services or earnings accrued to the composite income. Services rendered
in the home by the wife or minor children were without any other
compensation than provision of support.
This eighteenth and early nineteenth century economy rested on
economic and social bases which became radically altered during the
course of the nineteenth century. The dissatisfaction produced by the
anomalies in the code of the older order made apparent the need for
legislative or judicial action directed toward removing the claims on the
services of women. By the beginning of the twentieth century nearly all
the states had enacted laws giving to married women the right to collect
and control their earnings. The fact that, in general, the husband's
domicile determines the wife's affects the mobility and hence the oppor-
tunities of the married woman who would earn, but there is, nevertheless,
abundant evidence that attitudes toward women's role in society are
changing and that women are succeeding in establishing their right "as
individual human beings to realize their varied interests and capacities in
an atmosphere of freedom from the barriers of assumed sex differences."2
A final prefatory remark will explain the statements to follow. No
evidence is given to the effect that women are capable of doing the various
tasks which they have chosen. It is assumed that such material would be
superfluous, although at the beginning of the century there was still
questioning as to women's capacity for the higiier ranks of academic life.
1 For a fuller treatment of the activities of women, see the monograph in this series
entitled Political, Social and Economic Activities of Women.
2 Hutchinson, Emilie J., "The Economic Problems of Women," Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science, special number on Women in the Modern World,
May, 1929, vol. CXLIII, p. 132.
[ 710 ]
WOMEN
The attempt is therefore made to set out only the evidence as to how
women are selecting and being selected to carry on the work found
socially, economically or industrially profitable. In that connection an
underlying assumption may perhaps be brought to the surface of the
discussion. It is the assumption that, in general, in finding ways of accom-
plishing the work of the community a widening of the range from which
choice of workers can be made and an increasing selection of workers in
accordance with objective tests of qualification will mean raising the
level of performance and therefore benefit the community. If a marginal
person suffers from this rise in the level of competence his loss is part of
the cost which the community might have to pay, but his claim should
properly be met by other adjustments than the exclusion of workers more
competent than he.3
It will be noticed that the statistics which have been used do not
cover the same periods in all cases. An effort has been made to cover as
much as possible of the period between 1900 and 1930 and in a few cases
it has seemed desirable to cite even earlier figures. It has not always been
possible, however, to get data for the entire period.
I. THE WOMEN WHO WORK
There are several questions to be considered in connection with the
number and status of the women who are gainfully employed. Is the
proportion of working women becoming larger in relation to the total
number of women, and if so, is it at an increasing rate ? Are women becom-
ing an increasing part of the working population ? What are the trends in
the employment of married women ? What are the trends according to age
and according to race and nativity among working women? These ques-
tions are discussed in this section on the basis of the material available.4
Women Workers in Relation to the Total Number of Women. — The
number of gainfully employed women, 16 years of age and over, has
increased from 1,701,000 in 1870, the first year for which the Bureau of
the Census collected these data, to 10,546,000 in 1930. This increase of
3 Nicholson, Joseph Shield, Principles of Political Economy, New York, 1897-1901,
vol. Ill, p. 164.
4 Most of the data on which this section is based are from the Population volumes of
the United States Bureau of the Census. In many cases, however, the figures cited will not
be found in the census reports. The reason for this is that the census classifications are
changed from time to time, and in order to secure comparable data over an extended period
it was necessary to reclassify certain occupations and to make some estimates. These
adjustments were made by Ralph Hurlin for Chapter VI, and the reader is referred to the
tables in that chapter, particularly Table 5, and in the monograph on the same subject.
Attention is called also to the fact that nearly all of the data are for the age period 16
years of age and over rather than the customary period, 10 years of age and over. The
adoption of the older age period more nearly confines the discussion to women and has
the additional advantages of eliminating from consideration the somewhat doubtful figures
on the occupational status of children less than 16 years of age.
[ 711 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
nearly six-fold in sixty years assumes greater significance when it is com-
pared with the somewhat less than four-fold increase in the female
population 16 years of age and over.
The increase by decades in the number of women gainfully employed
gives clearer evidence of trends, particularly when compared with the
increase in the female population. The greatest increase during a ten
year period since 1900 was 47 percent during the first decade, when the
female population 16 years of age and over increased only 24 percent.
Between 1910 and 1920 the increase in female employment dropped to
16 percent, very close to the 17 percent increase in the female population.
The retardation is accounted for, in part at least, by the virtual cessation
of immigration. During the third decade, however, the increase in female
employment rose to 29 percent while the increase in the female population
was 22 percent. These figures are based on all gainfully occupied women
although there is some question concerning the accuracy of the enumera-
tion of women in agriculture at the time of the census of 1910 and again
in 1920.5
The growth in the proportion of women who are gainfully employed in
comparison with the total female population 16 years of age and over has
increased since 1880, save for one year which is uncertain, but the rate of
increase has been by no means uniform. With women in agriculture
included, 160 out of every 1,000 females 16 years of age and over in 1880
were engaged in a gainful occupation. By 1890 the number had increased
to 190; in 1900 it was 206; in 1910, 243; in 1920, 240; and by 1930, 253
out of every 1,000 women were at work for pay. When similar ratios are
calculated with the figures for women in agriculture omitted the apparent
decline in 1920 disappears. The numbers of employed women per 1,000
for the last four decades then become 172, 202, 213, and 234 respectively,
once more indicating a greater change during the ten years 1920 to 1930
than during the preceding decade. It should perhaps be said that had it
not been for the retardation of business activity which was well under
way at the time of the 1930 census, probably even more women would
have reported themselves as occupied. While the occupation census did
attempt to include all who usually worked at a gainful occupation even
8 The figures for farm laborers in 1910 are adjusted for supposed over-enumeration of
women and children in agriculture, but they are still probably too high. The 1920 figures
were not adjusted for females although there is probably some inaccuracy due to the fact
that the 1920 census was taken as of January 1, whereas the preceding enumeration was
made as of April 15, and the 1930 census is as of April 1. Because of the seasonal character
of farming it is believed that some persons who would have been enumerated as agricultural
laborers were omitted in 1920 because they were not so employed during the winter months
when the census was taken. See U. S. Bureau of the Census, Fourteenth Census of the United
States, Population, 1920, vol. IV, pp. 22-23, and Chapter VI of this report. With agriculture
omitted the figures representing the increase in female employment for the decades ending
1910, 1920, and 1930 are 49 percent, 21 percent, and 34 percent respectively.
[ 712 ]
WOMEN
though they might have been unemployed at the time, it sought to avoid
the inclusion of those potential accretions to the occupied class, namely
young persons, who had not yet found employment because of the
temporary conditions.
Women Workers in Relation to the Total Number of Workers.— The
growing importance of women in occupations outside of the home is
strikingly shown by the figures indicating the proportion which they
constitute of all occupied persons. In 1930 of all gainfully occupied persons
21.9 percent, or 1 in 5, were women. This is an increase of 50 percent over
1880 when women were but 14.5 percent of the occupied. In 1900 the
proportion was 17.7 percent, in 1910 it was 19.8 and in 1920 it was 20.1
percent. It is apparent from these figures that women are assuming a
greater share of the responsibility for carrying on the work of the country.
Age, Race and Nativity of Women Workers. — Young women pre-
dominate among gainfully employed females, although the tendency is for
the age periods of greatest employment to shift upward. In 1920, 20.6
percent of the employed women were less than 20 years of age while in 1930
only 15.5 percent were under that age. The figures in the following list,
giving the proportion employed in each age period, indicate declines up to
the age of 20 and then increases up to the older ages, 65 and over, where
the number remained stationary.
Age period
Percentage of women
in each age period who
are gainfully occupied
Age period
Percentage of women
in each age period who
are gainfully occupied
1920
1930
1920
1930
Under 16 years
16-17 years
18-19 years
20-24 years
5.6
31.6
42.3
38.1
2.9
22.1
40.5
42.4
25-44 years
22.4
17.1
8.0
25.4
18.7
8.0
45-64 years
65 years and over
There are several possible interpretations of these figures. The marked
decline in the proportion of girls under 20 who are employed may be due,
in part at least, to the spread of limitations on child labor and the growing
sentiment for giving every child a high school education. Part of the
difference may be due to the somewhat doubtful character of the occupa-
tion figures for children. It is interesting to note, however, that the figures
indicate a drop of from 5.6 percent to 2.9 percent between 1920 and 1930
(from 10.2 percent in 1900) in the proportion of children 10 through 15
years of age who are gainfully employed. It has been suggested that the
increase in the percentage of women employed between 20 and 45 years of
age may be associated with the increase in the number of married women
workers, particularly since the proportion of the population married in
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
these age periods is increasing.6 And finally, the increase of 13 percent in
the proportion of the women 25-44 years of age who are occupied gainfully
is interesting in view of the belief that older women find it increasingly
difficult to find employment. It is possible that as the supply of young
women available for employment is further reduced through the decline
in immigration and the decline in the birth rate, older women will find
increasing opportunity to work, although this is by no means certain.7
Another change already apparent is that native women are making up
the ranks of the employed to a greater extent now than at the beginning
of the century. In 1900, 58 percent of all employed women were native
whites, while 71 percent came under this classification in 1930. In 1900,
15 percent of the native white women were gainfully occupied and this
proportion increased to 21 percent, or more than a third, by 1930. The
other two major population groups have shown a lesser tendency to vary.
The foreign born white women did not vary at all, 19 percent of them
having been employed in 1900 and the same proportion in 1930. The
reason for this may easily be the shifting age distribution, which is not
accounted for in these figures. The Negro group, contrary to expectation,
declined from 41 percent employed in 1900 to 39 percent in 1930.
Married Women Workers. — The problem of the married woman wage
earner took on new aspects during the first thirty years of the twentieth
century. Formerly it was assumed that married women with children
worked chiefly because they were separated from their husbands or
because their husbands did not support them, but a better understanding
of the extent to which the household in its earlier form was a productive
organization and of the resulting composite character of the family
income has made it clear that with the changes in the economics of the
family it becomes necessary that either the wife and mother must earn,
or the income of the husband and father must in some way be rendered
more adequate.
The impression is widespread today that growing numbers of married
women are seeking employment and that employed women who marry are
more and more endeavoring to remain at work after marriage. Even
twenty years ago the married woman was held to be "a considerable
factor in the industrial world."8 A recent study of Chicago families9
showed that in 23,373 families investigated 61 percent of the married
men were the only wage earners in the family, 17.6 percent of the married
women were employed and more than half of them had wage earning
husbands. Fewer than 10 percent had husbands in the professions or in
6 See marriage figures given in Chap. XIII.
7 See Chap. XVI.
8 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Summary of the Report on Women and Child Wage
Earners in the United States, Bulletin no. 175, 1916, p. 18.
9 Monroe, Day, Chicago Families: A Study of Unpublished Census Data, Chicago, 1932.
[ 714 ]
WOMEN
executive positions. It seems probable then that at least three-fourths
had husbands in low income groups. The proportions of wives gainfully
employed were, however, similar in the different occupational groups into
which the author classifies the family. The data with reference to the
contributions of fathers and mothers are interesting but the contributions
of sons and daughters are not distinguished. The likelihood of the older
children contributing is discussed as though the wage earning of the
daughters was as much to be taken for granted as that of the sons.10
The numbers of married women in employment have grown greatly, as
is shown by the census figures. In 1900 there were 769,000 married women
at work, in 1910 the number had increased to 1,891,000, and in 1930 it had
reached 3,071,000. Between 1900 and 1930 the total number of employed
women doubled but the number of employed married women increased
four-fold. Moreover the ratio of married women who work to the total
number of married women has more than doubled, the figures showing
that 5.6 percent of all married women were gainfully occupied in 1900 and
11.7 percent in 1930. This increase is six times that for single women of the
same age period, 15 years and over, during the same thirty years. In 1900,
43.5 percent of the single women were gainfully employed and 50.5 per-
cent in 1930, an increase of only 16 percent as compared with 100 percent
for married women. The proportion of all working women who are married
has also shown a striking increase since the beginning of the century.
In 1900 the married constituted 15 percent of all working women. In
1930 the proportion had increased to 29 percent or twice that of the earlier
date.
Another point that has interesting implications but which can only
be mentioned in passing is brought out by the new census tabulation of
families. How many women have placed themselves under the two-fold
obligation of caring for a family and pursuing a gainful occupation ? Data
are available at this time for only 7 states11 but they indicate that from 1
in 10 to more than 1 in 7 homemakers are gainfully employed. And between
80 and 90 percent of these employed homemakers find their work away
from home. Of even greater significance will be the data now under prepa-
ration by the Bureau of the Census showing the proportion of married
women workers who are also homemakers.
The right of the married woman to work is at issue when an employer
raises the question of the marital status of women, as he seldom would do
in the case of men. Employers differ greatly in their attitude toward this
question, some asking only for competent workers, others having definite
views as to whether or not married women should work. Obviously there is
still strong opposition to married women on the part of some employers.
10 Ibid.
11 Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
[ 715 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
Whether or not this opposition has increased or lessened during the post-
war period can only be a matter of opinion.
In 1930-1931 the National Education Association made a study in
nearly 1,500 cities of the general policy of each school system with respect
to the employment of married women as new teachers and the retention of
single women teachers who marry. Of the cities reporting, in all population
groups, about 77 percent do not employ married women as new teachers.
Only 37 percent of all cities reporting permit teachers to continue
teaching after marriage, and a number of these permit it only in the case
of teachers who have been elected for permanent service. As to the legal
aspects of the question, apparently no state has passed any legislation
with respect to married women as teachers. In at least six states and the
District of Columbia, however, decisions on the question have been
handed down by the courts, the chief state school officials or the state
board of education. Two authorities conclude from their analyses of these
decisions that in these states marriage is not in itself a valid cause for
dismissing a teacher who is under contract or who is teaching under a
tenure law which permits dismissal only for specified causes. It is, of
course, unsafe to assume that similar decisions would be made in the other
states if cases of this kind should come up for adjudication. The most
recent decision on the subject was handed down on December 21, 1931,
by the Maryland State Board of Education in response to an appeal from
Wicomico County. The board ruled that a woman teacher in the public
schools of Maryland cannot be dismissed because she marries. It also
stated that a clause in a teacher's contract reading, "If a female teacher
marries in any school year she will be expected to resign at the close of the
school year," is in plain conflict with the state tenure law. This law
provides no basis for discrimination on account of sex or marital status.12
II. THE KIND OF WORK WOMEN DO
The Broad Occupational Divisions. — Women are represented in rela-
tively large numbers in seven of the ten major occupational classifications
employed by the Bureau of the Census. The greatest number, 3,438,000,
are in domestic and personal service. There are 1,970,000 in clerical
occupations, 1,860,000 in manufacturing and mechanical industries and
1,226,000 in the professions. Trade and agriculture each claim somewhat
less than a million female workers, while transportation and communica-
tion include something over a quarter of a million.
It is more significant in a study of trends, however, to compare the
differentials over the long period from 1870 to 1930. Figure 1 shows the
changing relative importance of the major occupation groups for all
12 National Education Association, Practices Affecting Classroom Teachers, Research
Bulletin, January, 1932, p. 20.
[ 716 ]
WOMEN
gainfully employed women 16 years of age and over. In 1870 agriculture
claimed 21 percent of the employed women but by 1930 it claimed only 7
percent. In 1870, 20 percent of all working women were engaged in manu-
facturing, but the proportion fell to 18 percent in 1930. The domestic and
personal service group shows a drop of from 53 percent in 1870 to 28
percent in 1920 and then a slight rise to 33 percent in 1930. The remaining
occupations show relative increases in the number of women attracted to
them. Between 1870 and 1930 the proportion of all gainfully occupied
Professional Service
Public Service (n.e.c.r\\
\N\\\\\\\\\\\\sX
Domestic and Personal Service
Clerical Service
Manufacturing and Mechanica/ Industries
20
1870
IQ80
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
FIG. 1. — Distribution of gainfully occupied women, 16 years of age and over, 1870-1930
women 16 years of age and over who were in the professions increased from
6 percent to 12 percent. The clerical group increased from 0.4 percent to 19
percent, while trade and transportation rose from 1 percent to 12 percent
over the same period. These data seem to show a continuous shift in
women's employment away from the older agricultural and industrial
pursuits toward office, store and professional work with domestic and
personal service somewhat more stable.
The tendency is shown more clearly by the numerical increases indi-
cated in Figure 2 and through the comparison of numerical increases
among working women with the increases among all occupied persons.
In the figure, the very great increases of trade and transportation,
[ 717 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
NUMBER OF WORKERS
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10.000
I860 1690 1900 1910
\920 1930
FIG. 2. — Women in major occupational groups, 1870-1930.
[ 718 ]
WOMEN
clerical and professional occupations between 1870 and 1930 are con-
trasted with the smaller increases in agriculture, manufacturing and
domestic and personal service.
The more recent trends are perhaps a better indication of the im-
mediate situation. Between 1910 and 1930 there was a decline of 6 percent
in the total number of persons 16 years of age and over engaged in agri-
culture, but women in agriculture fell off 26 percent in the same period.
Almost as striking is the situation with regard to manufacturing and
mechanical industries. There were 34 percent more persons in this group
of occupations in 1930 than in 1910, but the numerical increase among
women was only 9 percent. The number of women in domestic and
personal service increased 36 percent or only a little more than the
increase for both sexes, 43 percent. The increase of women in transporta-
tion and communication was 156 percent, or just four times the 39 percent
increase for men and women combined. In clerical occupations the total
number of employees is 141 percent higher now than it was in 1910, but
women are 244 percent more numerous. The two sexes together increased
77 percent in trade, while women advanced 110 percent. For professional
service the figures are not very different, 80 percent and 87 percent
respectively. In public service, a group comprising less than 2 percent
of all occupied persons and including such governmental employees as
officials, police, firemen, laborers and others not classified with other
industries or occupations, the general increase has been 79 percent com-
pared to 129 percent increase for women. In this section trends will be
shown for certain specific occupations and data will be presented with
regard to opportunities and training for work.
Women in Manufacturing. — Between 1900 and 1930 more than 6.2
million workers were added to the manufacturing and mechanical indus-
tries but only 584,000, or less than 10 percent of them, were women. In
the later years of this period the proportion of women among the additions
to this industry group was even less. In 1930 the number of workers in
manufacturing was 1,365,000 greater than in 1920, but only 10,000 of this
increase were women. As semi-skilled operatives in manufacturing, the
number of women 10 years of age and over13 increased 34 percent, but in
virtually every skilled occupation of significant size their number re-
mained about stationary or decreased, thus indicating a tendency con-
trary to the great increases in all other occupations save agriculture. The
greatest decreases in the skilled occupations were in dressmaking, tailoring
and millinery, and are accounted for largely by the general shift of these
industries from hand to factory production. Dressmaking and millinery,
13 In a few instances comparable data are not available for occupied persons 16 years
of age and over. In such cases the broader age period, 10 years and over, is employed and
the fact is so indicated. The differences are in no case large, for the number of employed
children in 1930 was less than 1.4 percent of all gainfully occupied persons.
f 719 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
as handicraft industries virtually dominated by women, have fallen off
numerically by two-thirds since 1910. The number of women (10 years of
age and over) in tailoring decreased 47 percent over the same twenty year
period although the number of men decreased only 10 percent. In con-
trast to these figures for the skilled workers, the number of women oper-
atives (10 years and over) in the clothing industries increased 46 percent,
while the number of men showed a decrease of 5 percent. In three man-
agerial groups women are increasing. As foremen and overseers in manu-
facturing (10 years and over) they are 44 percent more numerous than
in 1910 compared with an increase of 92 percent for the sexes combined.
While the total number of proprietors (10 years and over) decreased by 12
percent, women increased by 33 percent. The greatest change, however,
has come in the group known as managers and officials in manufacturing.
Here women (10 years and over) have increased 459 percent while the
group as a whole shows a growth of 149 percent (the number, however, is
small, only 10,400). Thus it appears that during this period of rapidly
changing methods of production, women as well as men have been called
upon to make many new adjustments to the changing situation, and while
many have gone into semi-skilled jobs others have found opportunity to
manage and to direct.
Women in Domestic and Personal Service. — In this general occupa-
tion group, as in manufacturing, there has been a drift away from pursuits
carried on more or less independently to similar work found in factories
and other establishments. In 1910, 25 percent, or 514,000, of the women
found in domestic and personal service were laundresses outside of
laundries. By 1930, however, the proportion in this category of female
workers in domestic and personal service had declined to 10 percent; their
number in 1930 was 355,000, representing a numerical decrease of 31
percent. Over the same period women laundry operatives, mainly in
power laundries, increased 117 percent. Women workers in cleaning and
dyeing shops increased 739 percent during these two decades. Women
boarding and lodging house keepers declined 11 percent, while hotel
keepers and managers increased 22 percent, a trend which indicates,
perhaps, a change in the type of housing. Another great increase has been
among barbers, manicurists and hairdressers, mainly in beauty parlors.
Women's increase of 412 percent in this group, compared with an increase
of only 93 percent for both sexes combined, represents the opening of what
is almost a new occupational field for women.
Other great increases are found in the numbers of women restaurant
keepers and waitresses, two occupations in which the trends are indicative
of modern urban dwelling. In the former women are nearly four times as
numerous as in 1910, while men increased but two and a half times. In the
latter occupation the combined sexes doubled and the women alone in-
[ 720 ]
WOMEN
creased 175 percent. Women as cleaners, janitors and housekeepers also
increased, as they did in the occupations of cook and other servants.
More than one-third of the women in domestic and personal service are
listed as servants, a proportion which has changed little over the twenty
year period. There is, however, one shift in this occupation that is not
apparent in the data presented: the decline in the practice of "living in."
It was found through special analysis of census data that in 1920 almost
one-half, 49.6 percent, of servants lived in their own homes, while only
one-third had lived at home in 1900. 14
It may be said in summary that in the census classification of domestic
and personal service women are increasing, but in the period from 1910 to
1930 they have increased only 36 percent as compared with a rise of 56
percent for men. Moreover, several major changes are taking place among
the individual occupations within the larger group.
Women in Business. — Of the 265,000 women classified under trans-
portation and communication by the census, 94 percent are telephone
operators. Among the 973,000 in trade 83 percent are accounted for by the
two groups of occupations, salespersons and clerks in stores, and retail
dealers. In the clerical group, numbering almost 2,000,000 women, 39
percent are stenographers and typists, 36 percent are clerks, and 24 per-
cent are listed as bookkeepers and cashiers.
In trade the greatest apparent advance was made in the group of
decorators and window dressers, which was still numerically small in 1900
and claimed but 439 women in 1910. In this occupation women advanced
1,321 percent as compared with the advance of 277 percent for the occupa-
tion as a whole. In the category of real estate agents, a group which
increased 91 percent between 1910 and 1930, women increased 986 per-
cent (from 2,927 to 31,787), making them now 13 percent of all real estate
agents. Among insurance agents and officials there were 452 percent more
women in 1930 than there were in 1910, while the increase of the occupa-
tion as a whole was 192 percent. Women bankers are 249 percent more
numerous now than they were twenty years ago, while all bankers in-
creased but 109 percent. The more important of the other trade occupa-
tions in which women have advanced more quickly than the occupation as
a whole are those of inspectors and samplers (230 percent increase) , retail
dealers (64 percent increase), and store laborers (126 percent increase).
It should be noted that saleswomen and store clerks, who are numerically
the most important in the trade group, increased only 100 percent, while
salespersons and store clerks in general increased 93 percent.
In the clerical occupations women are by far the most numerous in the
categories of stenographers and typists (of whom over 95 percent are
14 TL S. Bureau of the Census, Hill, Joseph A., Women in Gainful Occupations, 1870-1920,
Census Monograph IX, p. 138.
[ 721 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
women), bookkeepers and cashiers (52 percent women) and clerks (34
percent women). Between 1910 and 1930 women stenographers and
typists increased 196 percent, while the occupation as a whole increased
156 percent; women bookkeepers and cashiers increased 160 and the
occupation 92 percent; and women clerks increased 489 percent and the
occupation but 170 percent.
Many of the business and clerical occupations into which women are
going demand little more than general ability and experience for their
successful performance. Others, such as stenography, accounting and
bookkeeping, demand a formal preparation in commercial or business
education. In this connection it is interesting to note the growth of
attendance at schools offering this type of curriculum. Between 1914 and
1930 the number of girls enrolled in commercial and business schools
increased from 183,000 to 653,000. The figures for selected years are shown
in the following list. Public high schools are listed separately to indicate
the increasingly dominant role publicly provided education is playing in
Year
Girls enrolled in com-
mercial and business
courses
Year
Girls enrolled in com-
mercial and business
courses
Public
high
schools
Total
Public
high
schools
Total
1914o
92,650
116,379
173,857
183,021
213,141
381,631
1924«
1929-1930*
286,984
513,964
419,141
652,942
1915°
1918°
« U. S. Office of Education, Biennial Survey of Education, 1924-1926, Bulletin, 1928, no. 4, p. 252.
* Compiled by J. O. Malott of the U. S. Office of Education. Public high schools includes 86,000 in junior
high schools in 1929, and 417,964 in senior high schools in 1930.
the preparation of girls for occupational adjustment. In addition to the
high schools and business schools, 132 colleges, were in 1928 providing
commercial training for almost 12,000 young women.
Women in the Professions. — In 1930 women constituted 39 percent
of all persons enumerated by the census as professional or semi-profes-
sional workers. Despite this very high proportion of women, their distri-
bution in the individual professional occupations is very different from
that of men. The greatest proportions of men are in the categories of
teachers (13 percent of all professional men) and technical engineers (12
percent), while the smallest proportion is in the category of trained
nurses (0.3 percent). Of women, however, more than nine-tenths of those
in the professions are in the two categories of teachers (72 percent of all
professional women) and trained nurses (23 percent), while the number
[ 722 ]
WOMEN
of those occupied as technical engineers is so slight as to be negligible.
Women constitute 78 percent of all teachers and 98 percent of all trained
nurses. In five other groups, although they are relatively small numeri-
cally, women constitute high proportions of the total number. Women
are 48 percent of all musicians and music teachers, 38 percent of all artists
and art teachers, 28 percent of all actors and showmen, 27 percent of all
authors, editors and reporters, and 21 percent of all photographers.
Among physicians, chemists, clergymen, lawyers, dentists and architects
the proportion of women varies from 5.2 percent to 1.7 percent. They
are 9 percent of all draftsmen and designers.
Despite the small representation of women in a number of these
occupations, it will be remembered that between 1910 and 1930 the
increase of women in all the professions was 87 percent and that of men
and women together but 80 percent. Between 1920 and 1930, however,
the increases were almost equal, 40.6 percent for women and 41.4 percent
for men. Women authors, chemists, clergymen, designers, lawyers and
college teachers increased much more rapidly than the two sexes together.
Authors increased 185 percent between 1910 and 1930, but women authors
increased 207 percent. Clergymen increased 26 percent in that period
but the number of women clergymen increased 378 percent. Designers
increased 117 percent but women designers rose 206 percent. Women
lawyers (558 in 1910) increased 507 percent while the increase of all
lawyers was but 40 percent. There are more than 20,000 women teachers
in colleges, representing an increase of 581 percent compared with 295
percent for both sexes. Women actors, artists, photographers, elementary
and high school teachers and women in "other professional pursuits"
increased at rates similar to those of the combined sexes. Women dentists
have not become numerous and their rate of increase is low compared
with that of the two sexes. Only among physicians and musicians have
women shown a decrease in the period under discussion. The 79,500
women musicians and music teachers is 6 percent less than the number
enumerated in 1910, as contrasted with a 19 percent increase in that
occupation for men and women together. In medicine and surgery the
situation is somewhat different. The 7 percent decline of women is here
compared with an increase of only 2 percent in twenty years for the
occupation as a whole.
Thus women have made striking advances in winning places for them-
selves in the professions, but, as has been noted, their numbers are still
relatively small except in the groups of teachers and nurses. It must be
borne in mind, however, that the professions require longer and more
costly preparation, that the work is often more exacting, and that they
are surrounded by attitudes rooted much deeper than is the case with
most of the other occupations in which women are finding a place. For
[ 723 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
all of these reasons progress will probably be slow until women have
developed a prestige in professional activities and have further overcome
the prejudices which in some fields are still a handicap.
The number of women enrolled in law schools has increased without
interruption from 170 in 1900 to 2,216 in 1928, but the proportion of law
students who are women, although it rose from 1 percent at the beginning
of the period to 7 percent in 1918, decreased to 6 percent in 1928.15 While
the number of women lawyers remains small, they are finding increasing
opportunities on the bench and in connection with the administration
of justice. The appointment of a woman assistant attorney general with
the rank of assistant secretary was one of the acts by which President
Wilson recognized the new political status of women. Since 1920 a woman
has been promoted by election from the Common Pleas bench in Cuya-
hoga County, Ohio, to the Supreme Court of the state, and eighteen other
women in the country have been elected or appointed to judgeships,
some of them, as in Cook County, Illinois, in great metropolitan centers.
At least four women have been chosen clerks of the supreme courts in
their states; one has been made a reporter; two of the most highly paid
women in the federal service are judges, one appointed for life to serve
as judge of the Customs Court in New York, where complicated financial
and legal issues are adjudicated, and another sitting on the Board of Tax
Appeals. Since judges are elected in most jurisdictions the pathway to
recognition is usually by way of partisan political organization. The
practice of the law requires no such adjustment, but the obstacle in the
shape of prejudice is widespread and obdurate. Although the cases are
increasing on which women are given positions of responsibility and
authority, a large proportion of the women lawyers are pursuing routine
occupations in the offices of others, often with little hope of advancement
in their profession.
The registration of women in medical schools has shown a considerable
degree of variation since the beginning of the century. Women's registra-
tion in 1900 was 1,219, and from then through 1928, the last year for
which figures are available, it did not reach that figure again. It showed
a general decline until after the war, reached 1,184 in 1924 and then again
declined. In 1928 the proportion of women among the total number of
medical students was 4 percent, or 1 percent less than it was in 1900.16
Special interest attaches to opportunities in medical schools because for
several years there was a certain reticence on their part with reference
to the number of women applicants for admission. It was a period when
medical education was being reorganized and it seemed important that
15 The data on enrollment in the professional schools are compiled from the U. S. Office
of Education, Annual Reports of the Commissioner of Education for the years 1911 through
1916, and from the Biennial Survey of Education for the years 1916 through 1928.
16 See preceding footnote. For general discussion of medical schools see Chap. XXI.
[ 724 1
WOMEN
selection of candidates for the professional opportunities should be based
on objective tests and that there should be complete publicity. Neverthe-
less the figures with reference to the applications for admission and the
admissions of women to medical schools were not published by
the authorities of those schools and there was a widespread belief
that the dice were loaded against women. In 1929-1930 figures
were published with reference to the number applying and the number
admitted which seemed to show discrimination in favor of women rather
than against them.17 When these figures are more closely examined,
however, or are supplemented by independent inquiry they still give the
impartial inquirer occasion for doubt. Another problem is presented in
the matter of interneships. There are at present 660 hospitals in the
United States approved for interneships, offering a total of 6,119 oppor-
tunities. Among these, 5, having a total of 37 interneships, are restricted
to women, but only 231, maintaining 2,939 or 48.6 percent of the interne-
ships, are open to women and many of them appoint women only very
rarely.18
There is, of course, no question as to women's ability as practitioners
or as research workers. Women doctors have attained positions enabling
them to make professional contributions of a high order. Six women
physicians are members of the American College of Surgeons. In at least
eleven states women physicians are directors of a bureau or division in
the state public health department. These bureaus are usually concerned
with child hygiene and sometimes, in addition, with maternity or public
health nursing. A woman was formerly Director of Child Hygiene in the
Department of Health in New York City, and there are a few other cases
in which women physicians have official positions in local boards of
health. In a number of cases women physicians are division chiefs or in
other responsible positions in hospitals.
In divinity schools women increased from 181 or 2 percent of all
registrations in 1900 to 1,177 or 14 percent in 1922. 19 Between 1922 and
1926 the proportion fell to 11 percent, although numerically the registra-
tion of women continued to increase. In 1928 there was a slight decline
both in numbers and in percentage. The question of women in the
ministry, however, is only one aspect of the activity of women in the
church; the position of women in church government and administration
should also be considered. Some churches grant no participation, except
perhaps certain restricted rights of voting; some grant equal rights; and
17 Myers, Burton D., Journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges, March,
1929, vol. V, p. 65. The results of further study will shortly be available from researches
being pursued by Mrs. B. R. Bartlett in cooperation with the U. S. Women's Bureau.
18 Data from the Council on Medical Education and Hospitals of the American Medical
Association.
19 See footnote 15. Compare with discussion of the training of ministers in Chap.
XX.
[ 725 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
there are some which grant certain rights, perhaps a great many, but no
equality in the administration of the government of the church. The
great denominations which have resisted the demands of women are
gradually yielding (as the Presbyterians did in 193020 and 193221 and the
Episcopalians22 in 1931) a share of control in the affairs of the church
which women are asking on the basis of ability rather than sex.
Although in 1930 there were 83 percent more women teachers than
there were in 1910, the proportion of teachers who were women remained
the same, 78 percent, in spite of a rise to 82 percent for 1920. The pro-
portion of professional women who were teachers remained about the
same during this period, 73 percent in 1910 and 72 percent in 1930. In
1930 there were 79 percent more women in elementary and high school
teaching than there were in 1910 but the proportion of elementary and
high school teachers who were women maintained a fairly steady average
of 82 percent during this period. Among college teachers and presidents
women were 581 percent more numerous in 1930 than in 1910, and the
proportion who were women increased steadily from 19 percent in 1910
to 33 percent in 1930. 23 It is clear, then, that the pressure on teaching is
lightened, and that women are also finding opportunities in the other
professional categories.
The circulars of information for 1929-1930 concerning the colleges
and universities approved by the American Association of Universities
show that women constitute only 18 percent of the faculties of these insti-
tutions. Of the 226 institutions in the list, 47 were schools for men, 36
were schools for women and the remaining 143 were coeducational.
Women constituted 1 percent of the faculty in the men's schools, 16 per-
cent in the coeducational schools and 68.5 percent in the women's schools,
in each case the proportion increasing inversely to the rank of the posi-
tion. In the men's schools 73 percent of the women on the faculties were
in the two lower ranks of assistant professor and instructor while only
49 percent of the men were in these ranks; in the coeducational schools
79 percent of the women and 49 percent of the men; and in the women's
schools 59 percent of the women and 36 percent of the men. Of the 47
institutions for men there were 40 with no women on their faculties and
6 with only 1 woman. Of the 36 schools for women, there was but 1
whose faculty was composed entirely of women. The 143 coeducational
institutions showed 2 with no women and 2 with 1 woman.
The situation with reference to women in the land grant colleges is
briefly described in a publication recently issued by the United States
20 Woman's Pulpit, November-December, 1931.
21 Cf. The metropolitan press, June 8-10, 1932.
22 Ibid., September 22, 1931.
23 Compare with table given in Chap. VII. Note also in the same chapter the figures
showing the proportion of women receiving the Ph. D. degree in 1900 and 1930.
[ 726 1
WOMEN
Office of Education.24 In 1930-1931 women constituted 16 percent of the
faculties. The two lower ranks held 75 percent of the women, while only
46 percent of the men were in these groups. These figures are similar to
those for the other colleges and universities.
In the higher administrative positions in the general school system
the proportion of women is also small. The teacher training institutions
did not, until recently, include administration in the field of instruction.
Although women are not at present executives of school systems in great
metropolitan areas, there are six states25 in which women were listed as
heads of the state departments of education in 1931. Out of 3,499 county
superintendents 909 (26 percent) are women and out of the 2,841 com-
munities of 2,500 population or over, 38 have women superintendents
of school systems. In the National Education Association the election
of the first woman president was an epoch making event; now alternate
elections see a woman president. The United States Office of Education
now has four women specialists on its staff in the field of elementary
education or specialized education, all of them selected by civil service
examinations.
Women in the Civil Service.26 — Women have been employed in the
federal departments since 1862 although even in the 1850's a few women,
of whom Clara Barton was probably the first, were in the employ of the
government. Until 1919 a bureau chief wishing to fill a position for which
there was no eligible list would express a preference for either a man or a
woman and an examination would be given admitting only persons of the
sex preferred, notwithstanding the fact that the list so compiled would
also be used for filling other positions for which the appointing authority
had no preference as to sex. In 1919, largely as a result of a study made by
the Women's Bureau (then the Women in Industry Service), the Civil
Service Commission opened all examinations to both sexes.
Despite the effect which the earlier practice had of preventing women
in the civil service from qualifying for many positions similar to those in
which they were proving themselves capable in private employment, the
war years effected a great increase in the numbers of women in govern-
ment employment and a considerable widening of the range of their work.
After the close of the war the numbers were reduced but in recent years
the number of women employees has shown an increase. In 1931 there
were 91,196 as compared with 82,180 in 1925, an increase of 11 percent.
The proportion of women in the civil service, however, has remained
fairly constant. They constitute about two-fifths of the District service
and about one-tenth of the field service.
24 U. S. Office of Education, John H. McNeeley, Salaries in Land Grant Colleges, Pamph-
let no. 24, 1931, pp. 2, 3.
26 U. S. Office of Education, Educational Directory, Bulletin 1931 no. 1.
26 For a discussion of general changes in the civil service, see Chap. XXVII.
[ 727 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
NUMBER Of WORKERS
VOO.OOO
100,000
10,000
1,000
I860
1910
1920
1930
FIG. 3. — Women in selected occupational groups, 1870-1930.
728 ]
WOMEN
NUMBER OF WORKERS
,000,000
100,000
10,000
IflTO 1880 IS9O 1900 1910 >9£0 '930
FIG. 4.— Women in selected occupational groups, 1870-1930.
729
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The Range of Women's Employment. — While it is clear that women
have assumed a much larger place among the gainfully employed during
the past three decades, the tendency to concentrate in a few large occupa-
tions is apparently as marked now as it was in 1900. In 1900 women were
found in 295 or 97.4 percent of the occupations listed in the census, but in
1930 they were in only 527 or 93.9 percent of the 557 occupational
classifications. In the earlier year one percent or more of the employed
women were found in each of 18 occupations; and these 18 accounted for
86.4 percent of all working women. In 1930 a little over 83 percent of the
gainfully occupied women are found in the 24 occupations that claim at
least one percent of the total. Thus in 1900 this concentration was to be
found in 6 percent of the occupations but by 1930 it covered only 4 percent
of the total number of categories. It is possible, however, that some doubt
may be cast on these figures, for the census changes its classification
frequently in such a way that the groups are not comparable. It may be
said, too, that the new occupational groups of the census do not, as a rule,
represent new occupations, but breakdowns of the old ones.
In 1900 the groups in which women showed the greatest numerical
importance were, in order: servants and waitresses, agricultural workers,
dressmakers, laundresses, teachers and farmers. In 1930, however, a
similar list shows a different ranking: servants, teachers, stenographers,
clerks, agricultural laborers, saleswomen and bookkeepers. The tendency
of the business and clerical groups to supplant some of the more domestic
and personal occupations is apparent. Figures 3 and 4 show the trends
of numerical increases among women in selected occupations.
III. LEGISLATION CONCERNING WOMEN'S WORK27
Trade union organization among women to gain working status has
been very difficult to effect. Men, on the other hand, seem to prefer to rely
on unionism and collective bargaining rather than on legislation in
securing improved working conditions.28 Their organizations maintain
influential lobbies in Washington and in many state capitols, but they do
not seek laws regulating hours of work, night work or minimum wages.
This is due partly to the uncertainty as to the attitude of the courts but
it is also due to the reluctance of men to rely on legislative protection. The
situation with regard to women has been summarized in the words: "In
spite of the fact that the increasing number of women workers constitutes
a permanent wage earning group, as is indicated by the increasing propor-
tion of married women in industry, and the increasing age limit of working
women, there is nevertheless a mental attitude of impermanency among
27 For a general discussion of the law of industrial relations, see Chap. XXVIII.
88 On trade unionism, see Chap. XVI.
[ 730 ]
WOMEN
the women workers themselves which constitutes a serious handicap to
organization."29
The publication of the volume on occupations of the Twelfth Census
(1900) attracted the attention of students to the conspicuous increase in
the number of women gainfully employed and questions were raised as to
whether changes were taking place in the amount and character of the
work of women and whether women were invading men's field of employ-
ment and causing disastrous changes in the home. Examination of the
figures showed that in the major industrial occupations women were not
displacing men30 and were probably doing no more work than they had
always done, but that in the new occupations which were being devel-
oped, especially in the group characterized by the census as "trade and
transportation," now subdivided into trade, transportation and clerical
occupations, both men and women were finding employment and the older
agricultural and domestic occupations were declining relatively. The
figures likewise revealed the relative youth of the great majority of women
workers as compared with the men, and the large proportion of workers in
a small number of occupations. Another important factor in revealing the
conditions under which women worked was the appropriation by Congress
in 1907 of a special sum to enable the Secretary of Commerce and Labor
"to investigate and report on the industrial, social, moral, educational and
physical condition of women and child wage workers in the United States
wherever employed, with special reference to their age, hours of labor,
term of employment, health, illiteracy, sanitary and other conditions
surrounding their occupation, and the means employed for the protection
of their health, persons, and morals."31 The result of this appropriation
was the publication between 1910 and 1913 of a series of nineteen volumes
and a supplementary volume in 1916. 32 The restricted occupational
opportunity, the youth and immaturity of women workers and the
resulting lack of bargaining skill as well as bargaining power, as compared
with the employer and with men workers, had resulted in the same condi-
tions that had been produced in other countries — excessively long hours,
night work, lack of Sunday rest and general working conditions that were
often neither safe nor decent.
The problem of women's hours of work had been met by Massachusetts
in the 1870's by the enactment of a ten hour law which was upheld
by the state Supreme Court as a legitimate exercise of the police power,33
29 Wolf son, Theresa, "Trade Union Activities of Women," Women in the Modern
World, op. cit., p. 120.
30 See Edith Abbott and S. P. Breckinridge, "The Employment of Women in Industries,
Twelfth Census Statistics," Journal of Political Economy, 1906, vol. XIV, p. 26; see also
vol. XIV, p. 614; vol. XVI, pp. 335, 619; vol. XXXI, p. 521.
31 U. S. Statutes at Large, XXXIV, pt. 1, pp. 866, 1330.
32 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin no. 175.
33 Hamilton Manufacturing Co. v. Massachusetts, 1876, 120 Mass. 383.
[ 731 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
but when Illinois attempted an eight hour law for women workers the
Supreme Court of that state in 1895 held that it was prohibited by the
Illinois, and perhaps by the United States constitution.34 The early years
of the new century brought renewed efforts at legislative control with the
result that in 1908 an Oregon law limiting the working day of women to
ten hours was upheld by the United States Supreme Court35 and similar
laws were later upheld by the highest courts of other states, including
Illinois. These statutes followed the general pattern of the English
factory acts. By 1930, 44 states had laws limiting the length of the working
day, 16 states prohibited night work, 18 states required one day's rest in
seven,36 and 10 states had established special bureaus to deal with the
problems of women and children's work.37
The Oregon case, in which the exercise of the police power in regulating
the work of women was upheld, was important from several points of
view. The participation of Louis D. Brandeis, now Mr. Justice Brandeis of
the United States Supreme Court, gave dignity and prestige to the plea
that social and other scientific data bearing on the importance of the
subject from the point of view of public well being should have weight
with the courts. The court took notice of different bases of classification in
accordance with which a legislative program for the protection of
women different from that affecting men became possible. The resulting
decision rested more upon physiological limitations, especially in relation
to child bearing, than was perhaps justified or necessary, and failed to
take notice of the industrial and occupational inequality from which it
appeared that women suffered. This point was not ignored by commenta-
tors on the decision38 for the doctrine of physiological limitations was
being urged in many places for purposes not of protection but of exclusion
and restriction. Legislation regulating the work of women is vigorously
opposed by many women who desire the widening of women's oppor-
tunity. An influential organization, the Woman's Party, opposes any
legislation affecting the conditions of women's work unless it applies also
to men's work. The same position is taken by similar groups in European
countries, which are organized on an international basis, as the Open Door
International** There have been few enactments during the recent
34 Ritchie v. the People, 1895, 155 111. 98.
35 Mutter v. Oregon, 1908, 208 U. S. 412.
36 See U. S. Women's Bureau, State Laws Affecting Working Women, Bulletin no. 63,
and summaries in Annual Reports.
37 In eight of these states, the director of the bureau was a woman.
38 See, for example, Ernst Freund, " Constitutional Limitation and Labor Legislation,"
Illinois Law Review, 1909-1910, vol. IV, p. 609.
39 This organization met in Stockholm, August 17-21, 1931. It has branches in nine
European countries, with headquarters in London. For the views of these groups see
Women in the Modern World, op. cit., articles by E. F. Baker, p. 265; M. N. Winslow,
p. 280; and F. Kelley and M. Marsh, p. 286.
[ 732 ]
WOMEN
sessions of state legislatures dealing with hours of work or prohibition
of night work by women. Interesting administrative advances have
been made, however, under the leadership of women state officials
whenever a favorable state administration has given the opportunity.
The administrations in California, Massachusetts, New Jersey,
New York and Pennsylvania at different periods during the past
decade have indicated an increasing acquiescence in the treatment of the
labor administration as an instrument for social readjustment of the
productive process and in spite of the opposition to which reference has
been made protective legislation for women is slowly but increasingly
being developed in the United States for the purpose of setting limits
about the wage bargain so that too disastrous an advantage may not
be taken of the relative weakness of women in bargaining.
A solution for the problem of women's inadequate pay was sought
by the enactment of a minimum wage law in Massachusetts in 1912. 40
This example was followed within a short period by fourteen other states
and by Porto Rico and the District of Columbia. As Mr. Justice Holmes
pointed out, similar laws had already been tried in New Zealand and
Australia since the early 1890's and in England since 1909. Thirteen of
these state enactments were of the so-called flexible type and four — those
of Arizona, Porto Rico, South Dakota and Utah — were inflexible, fixing
a minimum sum below which wages should not fall. The question of the
constitutionality of these statutes was raised in eleven states and was
uniformly upheld until 1923, when the District of Columbia act was held
unconstitutional by a vote of five to three,41 with Mr. Justice Brandeis
not taking part because before being appointed to the bench he had
argued the case in behalf of the constitutionality of the act. If the decision
had affected only the District of Columbia it would not have been so
serious, but the law was held to violate the fifth amendment of the United
States Constitution. This decision was accepted as authoritative every-
where except in California and Massachusetts, and activity for minimum
wage rulings has of course greatly slowed down as a result of adverse
court decisions. The California act has been upheld by a superior court
and the opinion acquiesced in by the plaintiff before the higher court had
passed upon it, so that the act is still administered in that state.42 In
Massachusetts, where the law was largely advisory, it is still in operation
and interesting proposals for strengthening it have recently been laid
before the Massachusetts legislature.43 As to the effect of the statutes
while they were in operation, the Women's Bureau has stated, "After all,
40 U. S. Women's Bureau, Development of Minimum Wage Laws in the U. S.t 1912-1927,
Bulletin no. 61, 1928.
41 Children's Hospital, etc. v. Atkins, 1923, 261 U. S. 525 at 542.
42 The subject is admirably set out in the U. S. Women's Bureau, Bulletin 61, sup. cit.
43 Release of the U. S. Women's Bureau, April 1, 1932.
[ 733 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
the purpose of minimum-wage laws is not to raise rates in general but to
help the most depressed group. Interestingly enough, the few rates that
seem high enough to raise the entire depressed group to the cost-of -living
level seem to have raised rates in general . . . There is no magic in
minimum- wage laws to raise all rates/'44 There is interesting evidence in
a recently published report of the Minimum Wage Board of Ontario to
the effect that women's wages in that province have not declined during
the years 1929-1931 at anything like the same rate as in such industrial
states as Illinois and New York, and it is suggested that the minimum
wage legislation of the province is to a considerable extent responsible
for the difference.46
IV. THE EAKNINGS OF WOMEN
Since the beginning of the century the subject of the earnings of
women has been closely connected with the problem of the adequate
wage and with the problem of the equal wage. Attention was first
directed to the subject of the adequate wage by the United States Indus-
trial Commission in 1899, when it revealed that girls did not earn enough
to meet what their living expenses were known to be. Shortly thereafter,
in a report on employees and wages, prepared for the census of 1900, it
was estimated that one-fourth of the women workers sixteen years of
age and over received less than $4.49 a week, and only one-fourth more
than $6.86, the median being $5.64. These figures were given wide
publicity and toward the end of the decade 1900-1910 the data from
the study of woman and child wage earners46 began to be made available
and confirmed the earlier estimates of wage scales below any level of
"health, comfort, or safety." In response to these revelations efforts
were made to secure the enactment of laws which would establish
minimum wages based on carefully estimated costs of planned
expenditures including only the most essential elements. Adverse
court decisions prevented the movement from attaining any great
success. The subject is discussed more extensively in the section on
legislation above.
With reference to the problem of the equal wage, Sidney Webb pointed
out in the early nineties that: "The inferiority of women's wages is to be
gathered not so much from a comparison of the rates for identical work,
for few such cases exist, but rather from a comparison of the standards
of remuneration in men's and women's occupations respectively."47
44 U. S. Women's Bureau, Bulletin no. 61, op. cit., pp. 370-1.
45 United States Daily, July 14, 1932.
46 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin no. 175, op. cit., p. 22.
47 Webb, " Alleged Differences in the Wages Paid to Men and Women for Similar Work,"
Economic Journal, December 1891, vol. I, p. 659. See also analysis by Emilie Hutchinson,
Women in the Modern World, op. cit., p. 133.
[ 734 1
WOMEN
As a matter of fact, perhaps the major principle on which the wages
of both men and women were determined was the same — the bargaining
weakness of the worker as opposed to the bargaining strength of the
employer, subject to the limitations set by the public opinion of the
community. But the use of economic power, like the use of other forms
of power, had to be rationalized, and the fiction of men's responsibility
for dependents and of women's freedom from such responsibility48 served
to justify the unequal wage.
During the World War the principle of equal pay received widespread
support in the statements of public officials and in the orders issued by the
War Labor Policies Board, the Railway Administration and other authori-
ties; it seemed necessary to induce women to try work they had always
been taught to think of as men's work and to persuade men that since the
scales of pay would not be affected49 their occupational status would not
be damaged by admitting women. When an attempt is made to review the
extent to which these orders were actually followed it is found that where
the use of women was novel the principle was fairly generally applied but
that in the older industries it was applied to a lesser degree.60
The census figures reveal that in factory occupations the wages of
women have been and continue to be low and that they have been and
continue to be lower than those of men. Factory wages tend to rise but the
gap between men's and women's wages remains surprisingly constant.
Women's hourly earnings and annual earnings remain something less than
55 percent of men's hourly and annual earnings,51 and even the sum of
the average earnings for women and for children does not equal the
average for men. There are, however, wide differences among the various
manufacturing occupations in the disparity between men's and women's
earnings. In cotton, the average wage for men in 1925 was $1,015 and for
women $793, a disparity of 28 percent when calculated in the women's
wage; in tobacco, men averaged $978 and women $543, a disparity of 80
percent; and in glass, the disparity was 206 percent, men averaging $1,650
and women $540. Whether the gap between the earnings of men and of
women workers in industry will gradually widen or will become narrower
cannot now be foretold; if women are drawn to industrial work from older
groups the disparity in earnings between men and women may become
gradually narrower. It must be remembered, however, in interpreting
48 See, for example, John A. Ryan, Social Reconstruction, New York, 1920, p. 43.
49 See U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, vol. IX, p. 192; see also
vol. VIII, pp. 203-205, 205-208, 262-263; New York State Department of Labor, Annual
Report, 1919, pp. 22-23; A. B. Wolfe and Helen Olsen, "War-Time Industrial Employment
of Women in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, 1919, voL.XXVII, pp. 639,
658.
60 Wolfe and Olsen, op. ciL, p. 661.
51 U. S. Bureau of the Census, Brissenden, Paul F.f Earnings of Factory Workers, 1899-
1927, Census Monograph X, pp. 122, 123, 128, 129.
[ 735 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
these figures that it is almost impossible to secure wage data for both men
and women doing precisely the same tasks, even within the limits of a
single occupation.
A study by the Association of Business and Professional Women
published in 1930 makes data available concerning the earnings of women
in these fields. The research covered 14,071 experienced full time workers.
Their occupations were grouped in eight fields of employment and twenty
classes determined by the nature of the work done. Seventy percent were,
in 1927, in clerical, teaching or publicity work. One-fourth of the total
number earned less than $1,213; one-half less than $1,548; and three-
fourths less than $2,004. Those women who were independently engaged
earned more than those who were on a salary basis. Their median was
$503 above the median for the salaried workers and one in three of them
earned $3,000 or more, while of the salaried workers the earnings of only
one in twenty was in that upper level. Of the whole group, only 174
earned $5,000 or more, but there were 25 who were in the $9,000 level or
above.
There were wide differences in the range of earnings in the different
groups. Median earnings varied from $682 for 23 telephone operators to
$3,088 for 55 physicians in private practice. There were also, of course,
great differences in the proportions of workers in the different occupa-
tional groups who earned $3,000 or more. Only 2.6 percent of the clerical
workers, 4 percent of the teachers and 7 percent of the whole group earned
that much, while 13.7 percent of the welfare group, 14 percent of the
health group, 18 percent of the legal and protective group and 21.6 per-
cent of the personnel group earned $3,000 or more. These figures say
nothing of the relation between men's and women's earnings but the
evidence is clear that although some women are receiving incomes in the
higher levels, on the whole the rewards are low in comparison with a
reasonable standard of self-support.
The report on the land grant colleges for 1930-1931, which has already
been referred to, gives a fairly indicative view of the salaries of women in
college teaching. The author of this report comments on the situation as
follows: "Women staff members receive a lower median salary than men
staff members in every academic rank . . . The greatest discrepancy is
found in the case of deans, women holding this rank being paid a median
salary $1,260 less than men. In both the rank of professor and associate
professor the difference between the median salaries of the two sexes is
fairly large, being $558 for professors and $402 for associate professors.
Only an insignificant difference exists between the median salaries of men
and women instructors." The median salary for all men teachers in the
land grant colleges, irrespective of rank, is $3,169, while that for women is
$2,309.
[736]
WOMEN
In connection with the earnings of women in the civil service, the
Personnel Reclassification Act of 1923 stated the principle of equal pay
for the sexes as well as among departments. Until this time there had been
very few women in the civil service who received more than $1,800 a year
and the greatest numbers were in the $1,100 to $1,200 group. In 1925,
after the passage of the Act, a study by the Women's Bureau show.ed that
10 percent of the women employees received salaries of $1,860 or more at
that time.52 In 1930, of the women in the professional services of the
various state departments, 36 percent received salaries of $3,000 or more,
but this group is so specialized that it is scarcely indicative of the general
salary level.
Figures are likewise available for 1,025 women holding the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy,53 for 3,521 students who have gone out from the
land grant colleges,64 and for a group of 844 university women.55 The
ranges of these groups are naturally very similar and bear out the con-
clusion not only that women's earnings are low but also that they are
generally less than the earnings of men.
Thus, although detailed information concerning the earnings of women
is in most cases not available, from the data which exists it seems clear
that not only are women's earnings low but they are also conspicuously
less than the earnings of men.
VI. WOMEN IN GOVERNMENT
Women as Voters. — The ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment
to the United States Constitution in 1920 — after 56 campaigns for the
ratification of amendments to state constitutions, nearly 500 organized
efforts with legislatures, 277 appearances at state party conventions, 30
appeals before national political conventions and 19 campaigns with
successive congresses — meant the admission of women in all the states to
the right to vote and the closing of one era in the movement toward
equality of the sexes. Women have now voted in three presidential elec-
tions, participated in local, state and national campaigns, been candidates
for office and assumed responsibility in high official positions. The direc-
tion of women's political activities, however, and the use they will make of
their political power are difficult to ascertain. There are some who believe
that women must, as women, be politically strong enough to offer to those
in control of party organizations such inducements of support, or punish-
62 U. S. Women's Bureau, The Status of Women in Government Service in 1925, Bulletin
no. 53, 1925, p. 4.
63 Hutchinson, Emilie J., Women and the Ph.D., Bulletin no. 2 of the Institute of
Women's Professional Relations, published by the North Carolina College for Women.
54 After College What?, Bulletin no. 4, Institute of Women's Professional Relations,
published by the North Carolina College for Women.
56 Hawthorn. Marion O., "Women as College Teachers," Women in the Modern World,
op. cit., p. 146.
t 737]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
ment for failure to support measures in which they are interested, as men
evidently thought in the years before 1920 they would be able to offer, and
that therefore they must preserve a certain independence with regard to
existing party organization. Others believe that what is to be done must
be done within the parties. There is perhaps no objective test at the
moment as to which view will prove correct. One criticism of women,
expressed by a leader whose words always command respect, is based on
the failure of women who asked freedom to tell what they would do with it
after they had secured it.56 Certainly it cannot be claimed that they have
as yet shown clearly all the ways in which they would use it.
When the election of 1920 was over it was found that only 53 percent
of the total number of eligible voters had cast their ballots. This led the
League of Women Voters to undertake what was known as the Get Out
the Vote Campaign. To what extent their work was effective no one can
say, but the vote in 1928 increased to 61 percent. This was low, however,
when compared with the figures of the earlier decades — 71 percent in
1908, 63 percent in 1912 and 71 percent in 1916. The figures with reference
to voters are not as a rule reported by sex. There are a few exceptions,
however. In Pennsylvania57 the figures are available for a few years.
In 1925, for example, 41.8 percent of the voters were women, while in
1931, they were 44 percent. The percentage increase of women voters was
21, of men 13. In Rhode Island,58 the percentage of voters who were
women was 40.16 in 1922, 44.12 in 1924, 42.79 in 1926, 45.16 in 1928 and
45.37 in 1930. At no time have they been half the voting population,
but there has been a percentage increase of 56 in the number of women
voting during the decade, while the increase in the number of men voting
has been less than twenty percent.
There are also some data with reference to registration by sex. In
Chicago the proportion of women among the total number of registrants
for voting rose from 32 percent in 1914 to 42 percent in 1931; during this
period the number of women registrants increased 173 percent while the
number of men registrants increased only 80 percent. In Louisiana the
proportion of women rose from 18 percent in 1920 to 30 percent in 1928 ;59
the number of women registrants increased during these years 144 per-
cent while the number of men increased only 23 percent. These examples
are fairly typical of general conditions. There are more men than women
who register to vote but on the whole the number of women who make use
of their franchise is increasing.
66 Howes, Ethel Puffer, "The Meaning of Progress in the Woman Movement," Women
in the Modern World, op. cit., p. 14.
67 Figures supplied by the Secretary of State of Pennsylvania.
58 Figures supplied by the Secretary of State of Rhode Island.
89 Louisiana, Secretary of State to His Excellency the Governor, Report, January 1,
1921, pp. 336-7, and January 1, 1929, pp. 328, 330.
[ 738 ]
WOMEN
Women as Lobbyists. — Women began their work as lobbyists long
before they were granted the vote. Anti-slavery agitation, suffrage,
temperance, less cruel treatment of the insane, international agreements
for mitigating the horrors of war, were causes to which women devoted
their efforts, seeking definite and important community gains without the
power of the ballot. What could not be done directly had to be done
indirectly. Women had neither funds nor political backing but they had a
great belief that legislators who understood would eventually respond to
the facts which they presented and the conclusions to be drawn from those
facts. In 1900, for example, the General Federation of Women's Clubs
resolved "to work for legislation for women and children so that the law
of every state will equal the best already enacted," and the technique of
this work with legislatures was elaborately described. Speeches on methods
of lobbying occupied a place on the programs of meetings and in 1914 and
1916 conferences were held at which the successful methods were dis-
cussed, apart from the subject matter of the measures to be advanced.
TABLE 1. — REGISTRATION OF MEN AND WOMEN VOTERS IN CHICAGO, 1914-1932*
Year
Number
Percent distribution
Men
Women
Men
Women
1914
455,283
470,029
493,578
550,060
511,284
654,640
556,735
787,498
736,343
817,703
217,614
261,172
286,634
334,060
293,364
410,255
318,546
599,133
527,891
594,432
67.7
64.3
63.3
62.2
63.5
61.5
63.6
56.8
58.3
57.9
32.3
35.7
36.7
37.8
36.5
88.5
86.4
43.2
41.7
42.1
1916
1918
1920
1922.
1924.
1926
1928
1930
1931
0 Figures obtained from Chicago Daily News Almanac, 1915-1932.
The coming of suffrage stimulated further interest in lobbying be-
cause of the apparently changed attitudes of persons in positions of power.
Since 1920, lobbying in Congress for the special interests of women has
been chiefly in the hands of two groups of women. The first of these,
representing a very large number of women and known as the Women's
Joint-Congressional Committee, was organized in 1921 for the purpose
of keeping Congress informed as to measures in which women were
interested and letting women at home know of ways in which they could
help. Since 1923 it has been composed of representatives of seventeen
national organizations among which are the American Association of
University Women, the American Home Economics Association, the
[ 739 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
several Federations of Women's Clubs, the National Congress of Mothers
and Parent Teachers Associations, the National Council of Women, the
National Consumers' League, the National Federation of Business and
Professional Women, the National League of Women Voters, the National
Women's Trade Union League, the National Women's Christian Union
and the Service Star Legion. The second group is the Woman's Party,
still pushing the fight for the amendment of the United States Constitu-
tion by the adoption of the so-called Equal Rights Amendment which
reads : Men and women shall have equal rights throughout the United States
and every place subject to its jurisdiction . . . Congress shall have power
to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
Two successes rewarded women's efforts, directed by the Women's
Joint-Congressional Committee, during the first years of their new
power: the Maternity and Infancy Law of 1921 60 and in the following
year the so-called Cable Act, giving independent citizenship to married
women.61 In 1923 they had much to do with the enactment of the Per-
sonnel Reclassification Act, with legislation regulating interstate and
foreign commerce in livestock and other agricultural or dairy products
and prohibiting commerce in "filled" or adulterated milk, and with the
measure creating the new federal prison for women offenders. In 1924
they assisted in obtaining submission to the states of the proposed amend-
ment giving Congress power to regulate the labor of young persons,
although up to the present time this has been ratified by only six states.
In 1930, looking back a decade, a total of 436 state and local laws enacted
with the support of this committee can be listed.62 There have been
61 dealing with child welfare, 130 removing limitations on the rights
of women, 75 on social hygiene, 69 in the field of education, 76 dealing
with efficiency in government and several on living costs. Sixty measures
violating the principle of efficiency in government have been opposed
and failed of passage. But the two great measures protecting maternity,
infancy and childhood had failed (the act of 1921 was allowed to expire
in 1929) and the greatest number of apparent successes had been in the
years immediately after 1920. Thus after the granting of suffrage women's
interests widened but after the first few years of victory their obvious
achievements seemed to diminish.
In general, social welfare legislation and the quest for equal rights
have been their primary interests. That it might be possible to secure
public resources adequate to meet the costs of the projects they urged,
the committee has laid great stress on problems in taxation, finance and
60 U. S. Children's Bureau, Promotion of the Welfare and Hygiene of Maternity and
Infancy, Publication no. 203, 1931, reviews the history of that act.
61 U. S. Statutes at Large, 1922, vol. 42, p. 1021.
62 See publications of the League of Women Voters. See also Equal Rights, published by
the Woman's Party.
[ 740 1
WOMEN
general governmental efficiency. Throughout the country mothers' pen-
sions laws exist, child labor standards have been improved, and educa-
tional opportunities have been advanced, in part at least because of the
activities of the women's lobbies.
Women in Party Organizations. — Only brief mention can be made of
women in the party organizations and reference will be made only to the
two great parties. It is at present impossible to estimate the influence of
women in these organizations. Women have official titles and sit on party
committees. Both parties have adopted a rule calling for an equal number
of men and women in the state committees, and the Republican and the
Democratic National Committees consist of 53 men and 53 women each.
Of the 26 members of the Republican executive committee in 1930, 11
were women and, of the 9 offices, 2 were held by women. Each state, too,
has a director of women's activities. Women's participation in national
conventions is an interesting story but has as yet too much of the cere-
monial to be of great significance. The experience in party organization
is like that in legislation. The year 1924 witnessed a high level in the
participation of women in national conventions, which, as shown in
Table 2, declined somewhat in 1928, but rose again in 1932.
TABLE 2. — PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN NATIONAL CONVENTIONS, 1912-1932°
Party
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
Dele-
Alter-
Dele-
Alter-
Dele-
Alter-
Dele-
Alter-
Dele-
Alter-
Dele-
Alter-
gates
nates
gates
nates
gates
nates
gates
nates
gates
nates
gates
nates
Republican
Democrat
2
2
1
5
11
9
11
27
93
129
206
120
199
277
310
70
152
264
263
88
208
307
270
• Compiled from Republican and Democratic National Conventions Proceedings for the various years.
Women in Congress. — Except for an aged lady from Georgia who
held office for one ceremonial day, no woman had been either appointed
or elected to the United States Senate until the autumn of 1931, when
Arkansas elected the widow of a statesman from that commonwealth
to succeed her husband for the unexpired term. This is a clue to the atti-
tude of many citizens toward offices supposed to require high degrees of
statesmanship and long experience. In the lower house, of the 14 women
who have been elected, 7 have been chosen, as it were, by virtue of their
deceased husband's "selective ability." Some of these women members
have justified the practice and have been subsequently elected in their
own right so often that the accidental origin of their elevation to office is
forgotten. In 1932 there were six women in the House of Representatives
and one in the Senate.
[ 741 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The first woman in the House of Representatives, a Congresswoman at
large from Montana, 1916-1918, antedated the suffrage amendment; she
did not seek reelection. The first woman after the amendment, a member
from Oklahoma, was an anti-suffragist, hostile to all the measures in
which organized women had been interested. She, too, did not return. In
1922 a representative from an Illinois district filled out her father's
unexpired term. In January, 1923, a representative from California won
her deceased husband's chair and in December, 1923, she was the only
woman member. She did not seek reelection. In December, 1925, a repre-
sentative from California and one from Massachusetts succeeded to their
deceased husbands' places and a newly elected member from New Jersey
came in as the first Democratic woman. A member from Kentucky
succeeded a husband who was not physically but civilly dead in that he
was sentenced to the federal penitentiary for violation of the Volstead
Act. She was reelected for the seventy-first Congress, but was defeated in
the autumn of 1930. The seventy-first Congress, with nine women, marked
the peak of woman membership in the House. Four had been there before
and five new ones were added, two by virture of their husbands' deaths.
Of the fourteen women who have sat in the House, four did not try for
renomination and three were defeated in primaries for reelection. Of the
six in the House at present, only one is there by virtue of marital succes-
sion. The others are representatives whose constitutents have cast one or
more votes of confidence in them in their own capacity.
Space does not permit a discussion of women's committee assign-
ments, except to point out that they are varied in interest. The Senator
from Arkansas serves on the committees on Agriculture, Forestry,
Enrolled Bills and the Library. Two Congresswomen are on the Com-
mittee on Foreign Affairs, one on Military Affairs, one on Civil Service,
two on the World War Veterans' Legislation Committee, one is on the
committees on Labor and on Memorials and is chairman of
the Committee on the District of Columbia, one is on the committees on
Education and the Library.63
Women in Federal Office. — Women in federal office are in two groups
— those who hold a political office and those who have entered the service
through the civil service examinations. The latter have already been
discussed. Women's experience in federal political office has been like
that in legislative effort. The years just before and after the ratification
of the Nineteenth Amendment were the most promising. During the
decade prior to the ratification women were recognized by the federal
administration in various ways. Reference should be made to the estab-
lishment of the United States Children's Bureau in 1912, and to the
appointment as Chief of a leader in the field of social reform whose
63 These data are obtained from the Congressional Directory.
I 742 ]
WOMEN
qualifications for the position were of the highest. A woman was later
appointed Judge of the Juvenile Court in the District of Columbia; in
1920 a woman was appointed on the United States Civil Service Commis-
sion and a few women were sent into the foreign field by the Department
of Commerce. The diplomatic service was technically open to women
and there were three bureau chiefs. There were women members of
federal commissions, one woman succeeded another as assistant attorney
general, women were appointed in the offices of commissioner of internal
revenue, collector of customs, immigration commissioner, superintendent
of the institution for women offenders and a member of the woman's
advisory board of that institution. There are three women officers, all
exercising functions judicial in character, who receive $10,000 a year for
their services. One other woman magistrate has been appointed to the
municipal bench in the District of Columbia. The figures, however, show
that relatively few women are admitted to the higher salary levels.
Women in State and Local Office. — Holding office under the state or
local jurisdiction was not novel in 1920. Clara Barton had been head of the
Woman's Reformatory in Massachusetts in the early 1880's; there were
women on the early state boards of charities and corrections; women
were state factory inspectors and served on state health boards and
similar bodies. But only after 1920 were women elected to the highest
offices. Two have served as chief executive, one in Wyoming and one in
Texas. In twelve states women have been elected secretary of state. They
have been state treasurers in three states. In some states, as in California,
North Carolina and Pennsylvania, women are getting something of a
prescriptive claim to the directorship of the department of public
welfare. Reference has been made to their positions in the educational
organization and in the courts. A woman director of a state labor depart-
ment has succeeded in placing the administration in a position of con-
structive leadership.
The participation of women in state legislation seemed sufficiently
interesting to warrant special investigation. Letters were written to
all women legislators whose addresses could be obtained — 320 in all — and
replies from 126 were received. No special type predominates among
them. The legislators were pioneering women whose other work seemed
done; college graduates who have gone almost directly from the quad-
rangle to the capitol; some who were against suffrage and about half who
were in the old movement. Some had a definite purpose, others did not
want to be tarred with the feminist pitch. As to vocational experience,
26 had been teachers, 9 lawyers, 2 doctors, 6 business women, 3 social
workers. Twenty-six had held office before. Most of them spoke of their
experience as interesting and happy and many spoke of the courtesies of
the men.
[ 743 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
It is in the local jurisdictions that the evidence of women's activity
is most conspicuous and there has perhaps been more substantial advance
in the local than in any other jurisdictions. There have been women
mayors; women have sat on boards of aldermen or city councils; they
have been comptrollers and city clerks; and they are on boards of county
commissioners. The facts are difficult to assemble in their entirety and
the report of investigations concerning women in state and local office
made in four states by the Leagues of Women Voters64 of those states
summarizes what appears to be the only available study of comparable
offices over a period of years. It indicates that the woman in politics
progresses faster at home than in the larger political units and it shows
that women have had what might be thought to be a surprising concern
with fiscal responsibilities.
In Connecticut the number of women in local office increased from
134 in 1925 to 652 in 1929, the great majority of them having been
appointed rather than elected. In Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin,
however, there were many more women selected for local office by election
than by appointment. In Michigan the numbers increased from 367 in
1927 to 793 in 1929 and in Minnesota they rose from 227 in 1926 to 348
in 1930. The trend in Wisconsin is more difficult to determine as the basis
of enumeration did not remain constant throughout the period studied.
There were 62 women in local office in that state in 1926 and 171 in 1929,
but the earlier figure did not include women in city, village and township
offices. Of the 171 in 1929, 80 were in county and state offices.
vii, WOMEN'S ORGANIZATIONS
Women's organizations have to do with activities which are frequently
outside the exercise of domestic responsibilities, but they have been, and
still are in many cases, concerned with matters which were domestic
responsibilities but have become subjects of general interest and of
important public policy.
The relationship of women to the granges and to the agricultural
associations has been almost the reverse of that of women in other social
or occupational groups. Those organizations were made up of men and
women and after 1867, when women were admitted on equal terms and
even elected master farmers, the men were charged with submitting to
"petticoat government." In 1930, in a roster of 128 major state offices,
women were listed as holding 26. The farmers' institutes were a form of
adult extension education in which the women had their part. In 1898
domestic science associations began to be formed in Illinois. By 1912 there
were 720 women's institutes in 8 states with 78,776 women attending. In
64 These can be obtained from the National League of Women Voters, 352 17th Street,
Washington, D. C.
[ 744 ]
WOMEN
1914 the enactment of the so-called Smith-Lever bill gave federal aid to
this important aspect of education. Federal funds, matched by state
funds, provided an educational program carried out by home demonstra-
tion agents, which meant trained leadership. In 1915, 368 county agents
had enrolled 6,871 women and organized 250 community clubs in fifteen
southern states. In 1920 the Farm Bureau Federation was formed; in
1922, 210,560 groups of women and in 1929, 403,602 groups of women
had been enrolled under the leadership provided from this source.
Many organizations of women seem to have sprung from a sense of a
wrong to be righted, from the experiences connected with war, from a
sense of educational, occupational or social need, or from some such
special stimulus as was given by the Chicago World's Fair. The process has
been, in general, the organization of a small local group, then the federa-
tion of the local groups into district or state wide organizations and
centralization on a wider, possibly a national basis, then cooperation
among national organizations and then a return to specialization in
purpose. Women who work are inclined to ally themselves with others in
their occupations, or with other groups of women who work. Women of
leisure and education are likely to join with others to promote some special
program.
It is impossible to make exact comparisons with former years, because
the organizations have estimated rather than actually recorded member-
ship figures. One example of the difficulty of exact statement is found in
the General Federation of Women's Clubs, of which the total membership
is estimated at "over two million." The Federation is, however, composed
of various clubs, and one woman may be a member of several federated
clubs.
In spite of these difficulties in the way of exact statement, certain
facts may be noted. Women's clubs, both urban and rural, go back to the
eighteen fifties, sixties and seventies. In the early 1890's the men of the
labor movement decided that women should be "brought into the stream
of associated effort" and, in 1903, the National Woman's Trade Union
League was formed. In 1898 the National Consumers' League had already
put its hand to the task of bringing consumption, for which women's
responsibility was being recognized, under intelligent control. The
patriotic motive and the racial bases of association should also be noted.
In 1890 the Daughters of the American Revolution was organized; in
1891, the Daughters of the Revolution, the Colonial Dames and the
United States Daughters of 1812; in 1894, the Daughters of the Con-
federacy; in 1917, the War Mothers of America organized in Indiana; in
1919, the Service Star Legion in Baltimore and the American War
Mothers; in 1920, the American Auxiliary to the American Legion; in
1931, the Women's Auxiliary of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, the
[ 745-]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
American Legion Auxiliary and the Women's Overseas Service League.
They present varied points of view with reference to peace and war and
to economic readjustment, some being conservative and militaristic,
others liberal and seeking another way out, but all devoted to com-
memorating those who risked their lives for their country. It is not
possible to give exact figures of membership for all of them, but the
Daughters of the American Revolution in 1930 were organized in 2,377
chapters with 170,299 members; the Overseas Service League had 2,500
members in 50 units; and the American Legion Auxiliary had 9,130 units
and 368,049 members.
Responding to the motive of racial loyalty, sometimes strengthened
by the sectarian interest, are organizations among the Negro women and
the Jewish women. The Women's Convention (Negro Baptist) was one of
the very early organizations. In 1930, 2,000 representatives of their
convention attended a conference in Chicago. The National Association
of Colored Women was formed in 1896 and in 1930 there were branches
in forty-two states which claimed a total of 50,000 members. The
Jewish Women's Congress is one of the organizations growing out of the
Chicago World's Fair and remains a factor in the life of that important
racial community. In 1930 it counted more than 50,000 members; it owned
buildings and institutions valued at more than a million and a quarter
dollars and provided aid to immigrants and supported scholarships and
schools, in addition to providing opportunities for social intercourse and
for study and recreation. The National Council of Catholic Women
represents the national organization, 50 diocene councils organized under
the general direction of the Ordinary, 6 state and 1,700 local organizations.
For the professions, there are three organizations of nurses, one
concerned with educational problems, one with questions of public health
nursing and one with service to practicing nurses. The last maintains
scholarships ($34,000), a loan fund ($5,500) and a relief fund ($146,404).
In 1921 the graduate nurses gave a new school building in memory of
nurses who died in the World War to L'ficole Florence Nightingale, which
is part of the Maison de la Sante at Bordeaux. The Medical Women's
National Association requires membership in the American Medical
Association and, in 1930, numbered only about 600. There are also the
Women's Homeopathic and the Osteopathic Medical Women's Associa-
tions, both small in membership and both supplying opportunities for
social intercourse and providing scholarships for promising women
students. Teachers are organized in the National Education Association
with about 175,000 members and in the Federation with 40,000 members.
The Association of Collegiate Alumnae organized in 1881 is now the
American Association of University Women, with 40,000 members as
compared to 18,400 in 1924. They are organized in 586 branches and
[ 746 ]
WOMEN
maintain headquarters in Washington, publishing a quarterly Journal,
handling funds in the award of fellowships amounting to $15,800 and
participating in international efforts to secure for women wider opportuni-
ties for research and freer exercise of their intellectual powers. The
National Association of College Women (colored) has 300 members in
eight branches; the Parent Teachers Association in 1930 counted a
million and a half members in branches in fifteen states.
Although the Association of Business and Professional Women is only
thirteen years old, it already has state federations in forty-six
states, approximately 1,100 local clubs, and about 50,000 members. Its
slogan is "at least a high school education for every business girl," and
its researches in the field of vocational aptitudes and of pecuniary re-
wards are important contributions to the existing vocational literature.65
The Association of Junior Leagues of America, Inc., has 109 branches
and 22,000 members; it maintains national headquarters in New York
City. The Women's Luncheon Clubs came in toward the end of the
second decade of the century. They provide good fellowship and friend-
ship. Altrusa (1917) boasted 109 clubs in thirty-four states and 3,000
members in 1931; Quota International (1918-1919), 30 clubs and 3,000
members in 1931; Zonta, 108 clubs and 3,000 members; and Soroptomist
4,200 members in 1930.
The sorority system in the colleges and universities began between
1870 and 1880. Twenty chapters organized before 1900 are still active.
In 1927 there were 44 national organizations, of which 26 were academic
and 18 professional; the academic sororities had 32,000 members in
150 institutions. In 1905, 7 chapters reported owning their houses while
in 1927 there were 385 houses valued at $10,602,550. The sororities do
not accumulate such funds as the fraternities accumulated in the past,
but both in local chapters and as part of their national activity they
maintain scholarships.
Women's organizations have tended toward cooperative relationships
within the United States and also toward alliances with groups in other
countries. The early form taken by the cooperative effort was the National
Council of Women, which was and is a branch of an International Council.
In 1928 there were 38 state organizations of the National Council. Cooper-
ation sometimes takes the form of regular periodic conferences among
organizations on some important subject. The Conference on the Cause
and Cure of War, in which there were eleven participating organizations,
and a similar Patriotic Conference on National Defense are illustrations
of this tendency.
65 University of Michigan, Elliott and Manson, Earnings of Business and Professional
Women, Michigan Business Studies, vol. Ill, no. 1, 1930; and Grace E. Manson, Occupa-
tional Interests and Personality Requirements of Women in Business, ibid., vol. Ill, no. 3, 1931.
f 747 1
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
The practice of owning and maintaining club houses, although not a
novel one, has developed rapidly in the past years. These houses are not
only meeting places and refectories, but they also provide residential
accommodations and make possible many activities appropriate to the
membership. Some of these houses are valued at over $1,000,000.
Few of these organizations are self-supporting in that the dues of
members alone enable them to carry on their work. Some, like the Young
Women's Christian Association, are part of the social welfare program;
or, like the Women's Trade Union League, are to an extent in the social
reform movement. Others, like the Home Economics Association, look
to foundations for special funds; and still others, like the General Federa-
tion of Women's Clubs or the National League of Women Voters, rely
on a sort of annual drive. The totals are amazingly large considering the
general scale of dues and the modest scale of pay received by most of the
workers.
First federation and centralization, then cooperation, and finally
specialization seems to be the changing emphasis in women's organiza-
tions. The new groups which appear and the older ones which grow are
more restricted in the field they cover than the clubs which have been
united in the Federation. It seems unlikely that the General Federation
is growing now at anything like the pace of former years. Its very size and
proud diversity militate against it.
VIII. CONCLUSION
The material supplied in the preceding pages justifies certain state-
ments with reference to the changing conditions of women's employment.
It is clear that an increasing number of women are joining the wage
earning group. The rate at which they pass from the non-gainfully em-
ployed to the gainfully employed is not rapid, but it has been increasing.
This rate varies with women in different social positions and in different
sections of the country, and it is higher for married women than for single
women. It also seem&Jto be true that the gainfully employed are coming
from a higher age level than before and perhaps more definitely from the
native group. Domestic and personal service claims the greatest number
of women, with the clerical occupations, the manufacturing and mechani-
cal industries, professional service and trade, and agriculture following in
the order named. It is also clear that women are forming a steadily
increasing proportion of the gainfully employed. The increase is not great
— 68 in 1,000 in fifty years — but it seems to be continuous. The
proportion of women in the wage earning group and the rate of increase
vary considerably in the different occupational classifications. The tend-
ency seems to be away from the older agricultural and industrial pursuits,
in the direction of office, store and professional work.
[ 748 ]
WOMEN
In what is generally known as the business world, described in the
census by the terms, "Transportation," "Trade** and "Clerical" occupa-
tions, women are increasing steadily. The greatest proportion of the
women in these fields are office workers, saleswomen, store clerks, retail
dealers and telephone operators. In connection with these occupations
the demand for educational opportunities has also grown steadily. There
is some evidence that women in these fields are finding their way into
positions of greater responsibility and higher pay.
In the professional field the proportion of women is still small in law,
medicine and the ministry. By far the greatest number of professional
women are teachers or nurses. Women are conspicuously increasing, how-
ever, in all professional occupations except those of physicians and
musicians.
Women in the semi-skilled divisions of the manufacturing and
mechanical industries are increasing somewhat, but in the skilled occupa-
tions they are for the most part declining or remaining about stationary.
A notable exception to this is in the managerial positions, where women
have shown considerable advances. In domestic and personal service, as in
manufacturing, there have been changes in alignment reflecting the
mechanical trend of contemporary living. The proportion of women in the
civil service has not, except during the abnormal conditions of the war
years, shown any great variation, in spite of the fact that the number of
women entering the service has slightly increased.
As to women's participation in government, figures are not available
which would show definite trends, either in the success of lobbying efforts
or in the results of party activity. In legislative assemblies, whether
federal or state, the numbers rise and fall. Such evidence with reference to
voters as is available in certain figures recorded in the registration and in
the poll lists by sex indicates an increase in the interest on the part of
women voters rather more rapid than that shown by the increase in the
men in the same jurisdiction and during the same period.
The changes occurring among women's organizations hardly lend
themselves to statistical formulations. Their development, however,
becomes more obvious in an objective account of the energy which goes
into these organizations. They arose from a volume of interest in religion,
social reform and education, and the ratification of the Nineteenth
Amendment found a multiplicity of organizations active and occupying
the attention of women. With the increase in the number of self-support-
ing women for whose leisure time the home no longer makes adequate
provision, the club and the club house furnish shelter, food and oppor-
tunity for friendly association and the exercise of hospitality.
These are the conclusions which lie on the surface of the figures and
facts presented in the foregoing pages. For a complete understanding of
[ 749 ]
RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS
their significance, it is again necessary to recall the connection of this
material with that supplied in other chapters, especially those on the
family and labor. Such opportunities for women as have been opened up
have often been secured under difficulties and against resistance of which
these figures take no note. Those difficulties are suggested in the section
referring to the necessity of securing legislative changes and of removing
barriers by which women's occupational desires have been blocked. As
long as women's relation to industry is discussed with that on "aliens,
Mexicans, and Negroes," all acknowledged to be seriously disadvantaged
groups, it is probably evident that industry, or the occupational world, is
not making full use of the variety of abilities and capacities possessed by
women, and that some limitations which were characteristic of the posi-
tion of women in the earlier order of family organization still persist.
[750]
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